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**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:26 AM

Early bettors like Saints' odds for key NFL Week 16 battle vs. Steelers
Patrick Everson

Stevan Ridley and Pittsburgh got a much-needed win over New England in Week 15. But the Steelers opened as 6.5-point Week 16 'dogs at New Orleans, with the Saints snaring some early money.

The NFL season is down to its final two weeks, with plenty of teams still playing meaningful games. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of Week 16 contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)

After a three-game SU and ATS slide, Pittsburgh needed to right the ship in Week 15 and did so as a home underdog. The Steelers (8-5-1 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) were catching 2.5 points against New England and won outright 17-10.

Thanks to the Rams’ stunning home loss to the Eagles in the Sunday nighter, New Orleans now stands alone atop the NFC, although it still has Week 15 work to do in the Monday nighter at Carolina. The Saints (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) own the best pointspread record in the league.

“The Steelers had to beat the Patriots with this trip to New Orleans looming, and they got it done,” Murray said. “They face an uphill battle in terms of getting a bye and are clinging to the division lead. The Saints need a win too, as they are vying for home-field advantage in the NFC. This will be the most heavily bet game of the week, other than the Sunday night game (Chiefs-Seahawks).”

Murray said some early money came in on the Saints, but nothing sharp, and the line was still at New Orleans -6.5 late Sunday night.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-5)

Los Angeles is in the prime-time spotlight for a second straight week, this time on Saturday, after a surprising comeback victory in the Week 15 Thursday nighter. The Chargers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied from a 28-14 fourth-quarter deficit, scoring a touchdown in the waning seconds, then getting a successful 2-point conversion to win 29-28.

Baltimore won four of its last five to gain ground on Pittsburgh and make things interesting in the AFC North. In Week 15, the Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) topped Tampa Bay 20-12, falling just short of cashing as 8.5-point home favorites.

“Both teams are in the thick of the AFC playoff race,” Murray said. “The Chargers are coming off a great win at Kansas City and can still secure home-field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. This is exactly the kind of game the Chargers have historically lost with Philip Rivers at quarterback.”

Although this line dipped to Chargers -4.5 shortly after opening, Murray said The SuperBook was moving with the market, not on money.

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)

Kansas City is still the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but could’ve been in much better position if it hadn’t blown a 14-point fourth quarter lead Thursday night. The Chiefs (11-3 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) took a 28-14 lead with 8:15 remaining against the Los Angeles Chargers, then gave up two TDs. The second of those, with four seconds remaining, was followed by a 2-point conversion and K.C. fell 29-28 as 3.5-point home chalk.

Seattle was certainly trending in the right direction in making a late playoff push, but stubbed its toe in Week 15. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) were 3.5-point favorites at San Francisco, but lost outright 26-23 in overtime.

As noted above, Murray expects this Sunday night clash to be the biggest-bet game of the week.

“We opened the Chiefs -2.5, and I won’t be surprised to see this line go up during the week, especially if the Chargers beat the Ravens on Saturday night,” Murray said. “The pressure will be on the Chiefs to hold serve in the AFC West race. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are likely the No. 5 5 seed in the NFC, even with their loss today to the 49ers.”

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10)

Despite working with its fourth starting quarterback this season in Josh Johnson, Washington is currently just a game out of the NFC playoff picture. The Redskins (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville 16-13 as 7.5-point road pups in Week 15.

Tennessee is still in the postseason hunt, too, though like Washington is on the outside looking in. The Titans (8-6 SU and ATS) blanked the New York Giants 17-0 laying 2.5 points on the road in Week 15.

“We saw money come in right away on the Titans -10, and I cans see why,” Murray said, though he added it wasn’t enough to move off the opening number. “It’s hard to picture the Redskins’ offense with Josh Johnson at QB putting up points on the road against the Titans. Both teams are technically still in the playoff race. Expect a lot of moneyline parlays to start with Tennessee this week.”

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:26 AM

Betting Recap - Week 15
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 15 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 6-8-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8-1

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 141-79-2
Against the Spread 99-115-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 136-84-2
Against the Spread 110-104-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 104-117-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Eagles (+13.5, ML +600) at Rams, 30-23
Redskins (+7, ML +270) at Jaguars, 16-13
49ers (+4, ML +180) vs. Seahawks, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Falcons (-9) vs. Cardinals, 40-14
Vikings (-7.5) vs. Dolphins, 41-17
Bears (-5.5) vs. Packers, 24-17

Fly Eagles Fly

-- The Philadelphia Eagles hit the road to battle the Los Angeles Rams, and it was announced this week that QB Carson Wentz (back) is dealing with a stress fracture which requires three months of recovery. Enter QB Nick Foles, and it feels like Dec. 2017 all over again. The Eagles pulled the upset as nearly a two-touchdown underdog, posting a 30-23 win with QB Jared Goff looking like the backup, committing an egregious error late in the contest with one of the worst interceptions you'll ever see. The Eagles pounced on the miscue, took a 30-13 and hung on for the win to keep their playoff hopes very much alive.

Mining Home Covers

-- The San Francisco 49ers gained another home win, earning revenge on the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco fell 43-16 just two weeks ago in Seattle, and they entered the game just 1-3 ATS over the past four outings. However, the 49ers dumped the Denver Broncos last week by a 20-14 home win and cover as three-point 'dogs, and they're a respectable 3-1 SU/ATS in the past four home contests. They'll try and wave their magic wand in Week 16 against the Chicago Bears.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board (55) was the New England Patriots-Pittsburgh Steelers, but it never even came close. The first quarter had a total of 14 points, but it kept going downhill from there. The Steelers managed the only points of the second quarter, a touchdown, and the third and fourth quarters each only featured one lone field goal. The second- and third-highest totals on the board, the Los Angeles Chargers-Kansas City Chiefs (54.5) and Philadelphia Eagles-Los Angeles Rams (52.5) each hit over the mark.

-- The lowest totals on the board were the Washington Redskins-Jacksonville Jaguars (36.5) and Detroit Lions-Buffalo Bills (39.5), and both games ended up going well 'under'. The third-lowest game, the Tennessee Titans-New York Giants (42), actually ended up going well under as well, 17-0.

-- The 'over' went 2-1 this week through the first three outings, with the Monday nighter between the New Orleans Saints-Carolina Panthers (50) pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 24-22 (52.2%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Dolphins RB Frank Gore (ankle) left Sunday's game in Minnesota due to a foot sprain, although X-rays were negative.

-- 49ers RB Matt Breida (ankle) left Sunday's game on the final drive against the Seattle Seahawks.

-- Packers RB Aaron Jones (knee) left Sunday's game on the road against Chicago and he was unable to return. WR Randall Cobb (ankle) left Sunday's game to be evaluated for concussion.

Looking Ahead

-- The Browns and Bengals do battle in Cleveland, as Cincinnati looks for revenge after a 35-20 loss at home back on Nov. 25. Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in the past seven road games and 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Browns are also 5-2 ATS in their past seven home outings, but they're just 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 inside the division. Cincinnati has covered four in a row at Cleveland, and the 'under' is 5-0 in the past five meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium.

-- The Bills travel to Foxboro to battle the Patriots, who have lost back-to-back games in December for the first time since 2002. Buffalo lost a Monday nighter to New England back on Oct. 29 in western New York by a 25-6 score, as the Patriots were out of sync, but still covered a 13 1/2-point number. Buffalo is just 2-6 ATS in their past eight overall, and 4-10 ATS in the past 14 inside the division. New England is 5-1 ATS in the past six inside the division, and they're 37-15-2 ATS in the past 54 home games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and the road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the past 27 in this series.

-- The Falcons hit the road for Carolina, looking to stick a final nail in the coffin of the Panthers. Atlanta heads into the game 1-5 ATS in the past six overall, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven on the road. They're also 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings in Carolina, with the Falcons 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series. The home team has connected in 16 of the past 21 meetings, too. The 'under' is 8-2-1 over the past 11 meetings, while going 16-5-2 in the past 23 meetings at Bank of America Stadium.

-- The Rams are skidding a little, losers of two straight. A trip to the desert to meet the Cardinals should be the perfect medicine. L.A. is 1-5-1 ATS in the past seven games overall, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six against NFC opponents. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in the past five overall, and they're 8-17-1 ATS in the past 26 against winning teams. The favorite has cashed in four in a row in this series, the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings nad the road team is 6-2 ATS across the past eight in the series.

-- The Broncos and Raiders will tangle on Monday night. Denver heads in 4-1 ATS in the past five road outings, but they're just 8-17-1 ATS in the past 26 games overall. They're also just 2-6 ATS in the past eight inside the AFC West. Oakland has posted a 1-4 ATS mark in the past five overall, and they're 2-5 ATS in the past seven against AFC foes. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to the Black Hole, and 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 in this series. The favorite is also 10-2-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings.

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:27 AM

Hot & Not Report

Week of Dec 17th

In last week's piece I touched on a few different runs going on in the NFL and Week 15's results came with a mixed bag regarding those scenarios.

Home underdogs in the NFL continued their hot stretch of play, as they went 2-0-1 ATS vs the closing line so far in Week 15, with the Steelers and 49ers winning outright. Only Carolina has yet to play in that role this week, and they'll need to stretch out the now 11-7 SU run home underdogs are on the last three weeks to essentially keep their season alive.

The Panthers also resided in the “Not” part of last week's piece as a former NFC Super Bowl representative, and the two franchises grouped in with them managed to snap significant poor runs in Week 15.

Atlanta blew out the Cardinals basically from start to finish, while the Eagles went out to LA again and beat the Rams outright with Nick Foles back under center. It's still just a 3-16 ATS run – with Carolina on MNF pending – for these past Super Bowl representatives from the NFC, but with two of the three (Carolina, Philadelphia) still clinging onto playoff hopes this year, it will be interesting to see how those two squads finish the campaign.

It's on to things we can potentially use one way or another for this upcoming week, so let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

NFL Divisional games 'Over' the total: 7-3 O/U last two weeks

This streak puts tonight's New Orleans/Carolina game in it as well, but for those that prefer to look to 'unders' in division games, it hasn't been a good couple of weeks in that regard.

Late in the year when the weather turns and teams have a substantial amount of film on opponents – especially familiar division foes – the prevailing thought is to expect lower-scoring games as the defenses have a beat on what they need to do. A lot of the times these are return matches too between division foes since they met earlier in the year, and having first hand experience against someone never hurts. However, that hasn't been the case the past two weeks, as division matchups are on a 7-3 O/U run, with OT needed in two of those seven 'overs.'

The extra session didn't account for why those 'overs' hit, but it does hint at how tight these games tend to be between rivals down the stretch. These 10 division games have been averaging 49.5 points per contest, but for those bettors that aren't shy about playing halves, we do see more scoring coming in the final two frames (and OT) with these 10 division games averaging 25.3 points during those final 30 minutes. In the 4th quarters alone we are seeing 14.8 points scored total between division rivals, as these teams aren't scared at all about pulling out all the stops late.

So I wouldn't be shy about pulling the trigger on some second half 'over' plays when division rivals are involved, especially with six divisional matchups upcoming in Week 16.

Who's Not

NFL Non-Conference games 'Over' the total: 1-9 O/U last three weeks

For years earlier this decade, NFL games pitting an AFC team vs a NFC team always attracted 'over' money and they tended to hit at a high rate. Logically, there is less intensity and hatred in these non-conference matchups, and when games play out in that fashion, defenses tend to “let up” some for a variety of reasons. Lack of hatred is one, but so is the lack of familiarity of what the offensive opponents would run, and typically it was the offenses that had the better day.

But during the past three weeks that hasn't been the case at all with 'unders' in non-conference games cashing at a 90% clip. The Miami/Minnesota game on Sunday was the only one to sail 'over' their respective number on a day where non-conference games in Week 15 finished with a 1-5 O/U record. Those games averaged a measly 31 points per game, as only the Tampa/Baltimore game eclipsed that average by finishing with 32 total points. Take out that Minnesota game and you've got a very anaemic average of just 25.6 points per game between non-conference foes in Week 15.

The offensive futility didn't start there though, as Week 14 and Week 13 went a combined 0-4 O/U in non-conference games with their average point totals coming in at just 39 points per game. Add it all up, and over the course of the last three weeks, non-conference games have averaged just 34.2 points per game during these past three weeks.

This is one streak that may see some regression to the mean during the final week of the season (Week 17 is all division games) as there are six different non-conference games on tap in Week 16. A few of them feature some dynamic offenses like Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Houston and Kansas City, so chances are that average of 34.2 points goes up quite a bit. Whether or not it's enough to get off 'under' plays in these games remains to be seen though.

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:27 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 22

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WASHINGTON (7 - 7) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/22/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at LA CHARGERS (11 - 3) - 12/22/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, December 23

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 9) at DALLAS (8 - 6) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 40-62 ATS (-28.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 9) at NEW ENGLAND (9 - 5) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-16 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (5 - 9) at CAROLINA (6 - 7) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 84-54 ATS (+24.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-32 ATS (+20.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 10) at MIAMI (7 - 7) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (8 - 6) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (10 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 7) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (7 - 6 - 1) at DETROIT (5 - 9) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (5 - 8 - 1) at NY JETS (4 - 10) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (6 - 8) at CLEVELAND (6 - 7 - 1) - 12/23/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (11 - 3) at ARIZONA (3 - 11) - 12/23/2018, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 4-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (10 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 12/23/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 53-79 ATS (-33.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 14-35 ATS (-24.5 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (8 - 5 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 2) - 12/23/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 79-54 ATS (+19.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 3) at SEATTLE (8 - 6) - 12/23/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 70-41 ATS (+24.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, December 24

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DENVER (6 - 8) at OAKLAND (3 - 11) - 12/24/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 62-87 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 51-85 ATS (-42.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 79-108 ATS (-39.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 145-182 ATS (-55.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 39-82 ATS (-51.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-44 ATS (-26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:28 AM

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 22

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Washington

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games
Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Baltimore is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Chargers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
LA Chargers is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
LA Chargers is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

Sunday, December 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Tampa Bay is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 23 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games on the road
NY Giants is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Giants is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing NY Giants

Houston Texans
Houston is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
Houston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Jacksonville is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games on the road
Green Bay is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Green Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games at home
NY Jets is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 8-16 ATS in its last 24 games at home
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 5-18-1 SU in its last 24 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Cleveland's last 20 games at home
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Minnesota is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 6-11-2 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 7 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games at home
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Carolina is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
San Francisco is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games at home
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Chicago
San Francisco is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Arizona
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
LA Rams is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 10-2-1 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Kansas City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Monday, December 24

Denver Broncos
Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Denver is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
Denver is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Denver is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Oakland is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 21 games
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Denver
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:29 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Saturday
Redskins (7-7) @ Titans (8-6)— Tennessee is in 3-way tie for #6 seed in AFC; Redskins are half-game behind Vikings for #6 seed in NFC. Titans won last three games, giving up one TD on 19 drives in last two games; Tennessee is 4-2 SU at home this year; they’re 9-4-2 in last 15 games as HF, 2-1 this season. Skins’ #4 QB Johnson got his first NFL win LW when Washington scored 10 points in last 5:47 to edge Jaguars. Redskins lost four of last five games; they’re 3-3 SU on road this year; under Gruden, they’re 16-17 as road underdogs, 2-3 this year. Teams split 12 meetings, with last three all decided by 3 or fewer points; Redskins won two of three visits here, with last visit in ’10. Over is 3-1 in last four Tennessee games; under is 5-2 in Redskin road games.

Ravens (8-6) @ Chargers (11-3)— Short week for Ravens; LA played last Thursday. Baltimore is holding on to #6 seed by skin of their teeth; they won four of last five games, with loss by 3 at Arrowhead. Ravens converted 37 of 72 third down plays in winning four of Jackson’s five starts at QB. Baltimore is 3-4 SU on road- they’re 6-1-1 in last eight games as road underdogs. Chargers won last four games and 10 of last 11; they’re 4-2 SU at home, 2-4 as home favorites- they’re 5-7 vs spread as HF in two years playing home games in Carson. Teams split last six meetings; Ravens were 3-4 in San Diego, with last visit there in ’12. Three of last four Charger games went over total; under is 4-2 in Baltimore’s last six road games.

Sunday
Buccaneers (5-9) @ Cowboys (8-6)— Dallas leads NFC East by game; they had 5-game win streak ended by 23-0 loss in Indy LW. Cowboys are 6-1 SU at home this year, 3-2 vs spread as home favorites; they’re 9-7 in last 16 games as HF, but haven’t scored a TD in first half of their last two games. Tampa Bay lost six of its last eight games; they lost last six road games after winning opener in Superdome. Bucs are 3-7-2 in last dozen games as road underdogs- they’re +8 in turnovers in last four games, after being -25 in nine games before that. Dallas is 14-4 in series games, 11-1 in games played here, with only loss in ’01. Five of last six Dallas home games went over total; Tampa Bay’s last four games stayed under.

Bills (5-9) @ Patriots (9-5)— New England lost its last two games, is game behind Houston for #2 seed and first round bye in AFC playoffs; this is most games Patriots have lost since ’09. NE is 6-0 at home this year, 5-1 vs spread; since ’15, they’re 19-7-3 as home favorites, 7-1-2 vs AFC East opponents. Bills are 3-2 in last five games; they’re 4-3 vs spread on road this year- since 17-12-1 in last 30 games as a road underdog. Patriots (-14) strolled past Buffalo 25-6 in first meeting, but Peterman played QB for Bills that night; NE is 32-4 in last 36 series games, winning last four, all by 16+ points. Buffalo actually split its last four visits to Foxboro. Six of last seven Patriot games stayed under total; over is 4-2 in last six Buffalo games. Patriots’ WR Gordon is out for season.

Falcons (5-9) @ Panthers (6-8)— Carolina lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); Heinicke gets first NFL start at QB here, in place of injured Newton. Panthers are 5-2 at home this year, losing last two home tilts, to Seattle/Saints. Carolina is 8-10 in its last 18 games as home favorite, 3-2 this year. Atlanta snapped 5-game skid by beating Cardinals LW; they’re 1-5 on road this year, 1-3 vs spread as road underdogs- their only road win this year was in Week 9 at Washington. Carolina (+6) lost 31-24 in Atlanta in Week 2, Falcons won five of last six series games, splitting last four visits here. Atlanta stayed under their team total in five of last six games; four of last five Carolina games stayed under the total.

Jaguars (4-10) @ Dolphins (7-7)— Jacksonville lost nine of last 10 games, blowing LW’s game to Washington against 32-year old QB who hadn’t started a game in seven years. In their last three games, Jaguars scored one TD on 29 drives- they stayed under their team total in eight of last 10 games. Jags are 1-6 on road this year, 0-3-1 as road underdogs. Miami is still alive for playoff spot; they’re 2-3 in last five games, and converted only 5 of last 28 3rd down plays. Dolphins are 6-1 SU at home this year, 2-1 as home favorite; over last 11 years, Miami is 14-30-2 vs spread as a HF. Teams split eight meetings, with last one in ’15; Jaguars split two visits here, with last one six years ago. Over is 5-2 in Miami home games this year, 4-0 in Jaguars’ last four road games.

Giants (5-9) @ Colts (8-6)— Indy won seven of last eight games after a 1-5 start; they’re in a 3-way tie for #6 seed in AFC, need help to get in. Colts won their last five home games, are 3-3-1 as home favorites this year- since ’14, Indy is 15-12-2 as HF. Colts didn’t allow an offensive TD in two of last three games. Eli Manning visits stadium where his brother became a Hall of Famer. Giants are 4-2 in last six games; they’re 3-4 SU on road this year, but 5-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Indy won last three series games, winning last two 38-14/40-24; Big Blue won two of last three visits to Indy, with last one in 2010. Under is 4-0-1 in Colts’ last five games; five of last six Giant games went over the total.

Texans (10-4) @ Eagles (7-7)— Houston won 10 of its last 11 games after an 0-3 start; they won last five road games, are in Northeast for second week in row. Texans hold #2 seed in AFC; they play lowly Jaguars next week, so win here would be huge for securing first-round bye. Eagles won three of last four games since 48-7 loss in Superdome, are half-game out of #6-seed in NFC. Iggles are 4-3 at home, got efficient job from Foles LW, in his first start since Week 2. Philly has six takeaways (+5) in their last two games. Philly won last four series games, all by 10+ points; Texans lost their two visits here, 35-17/34-24. Six of last nine Houston games stayed under total; three of last four Philly games went over.

Vikings (7-6-1) @ Lions (5-9)— Minnesota is clinging to #6-seed in NFC; they’re 2-3 in last five games, and lost last three road games, scoring two TD’s on 21 drives in last two. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 9-6 as road favorites, 1-1 this year. Lions lost six of last eight games; they scored 17 or fewer points in last four games- they stayed under team total in 7 of last 8. Detroit is 3-4 at home this year, 2-2 as home underdogs- since ’15, Lions are 4-10-1 as home dogs. Detroit (+5) lost 24-9 in Minnesota in Week 9, kicking FG’s on all three red zone drives; TY in game was 283-209, Vikings. Home side lost four of last six series games; teams split last six meetings played here. Under is 5-2 in last seven Minnesota games, 7-1 in Lions’ last eight games.

Packers (5-8-1) @ Jets (4-10)— Not lot to choose from here. Green Bay is road favorite despite being 0-7 on road and firing its coach two weeks ago; Packers lost six of their last eight games- they played arch-rival Bears LW, have only three takeaways in last five games. Packers are 3-5 in last eight games as road favorite, 0-1 this year. Jets lost seven of last eight games, 2-5 SU at home, 0-3 as HU. Gang Green is 15-30 on third down last two games; they’re obviously better with rookie Darnold playing QB. Green Bay won last two meetings, 9-0/31-24, but they’ve lost four of last five series games played here, with last visit in ’10, a 9-0 win. Four of last five Jet games went over total; six of last eight Green Bay games stayed under.

Bengals (6-8) @ Browns (6-7-1)— Cleveland won four of last five games, is still alive for playoff slot; Browns are 4-2-1 at home this year, 1-0 as HF. This is most points Browns have been favored by in this series since Browns came back to NFL; they’re 1-4 vs spread last five times they were favored over the Bengals. Bengals snapped 5-game skid by beating Oakland LW; they’re 2-4 SU on road, 4-2 as road underdogs this year- since 2011, they’re 19-13-2 as road dogs. Browns (+3) won 35-30 in Cincy four weeks ago, averaging 9.9 ypa; it was their first win in last eight series games. Bengals won last four visits to Cleveland, by average score of 30-5. Four of Browns’ last five games stayed under total; over is 5-2 in Cincinnati’s last seven games.

Rams (11-3) @ Cardinals (3-11)— Rams lost last two games, need 2-0 finish to clinch #2 seed in NFC and first-round bye in playoffs. LA turned ball over 11 times in its last four games (even) after having only 7 turnovers (+7) in first 10 games. Rams are 5-2 on road; under McVay, they’re 6-6 vs spread as road favorites, 3-4 this year. Arizona lost five of its last six games; they’re 1-6 at home, 3-2 vs spread as home underdogs— since ’09, they’re 19-12-1 as home dogs. Cardinals were outrushed 337-121 in their last two games; they’re -13 in turnovers in last 8 games. Rams (-13) crushed Arizona 34-0 in Week 2; Bradford played for Arizona that day- lot has changed since then. LA won five of last seven series games, winning last three visits here (32-16 LY).

Bears (10-4) @ 49ers (4-10)— Chicago clinched its first division title since 2010 LW; they can still get #2 seed in NFC with two wins and an LA loss. Bears won/covered seven of last eight games, are 3-3 SU on road, 2-3 as road favorite. 49ers are 3-3 with Mullens at QB, pulling small upsets at home last two weeks; SF is 4-3 at home this year- under Shanahan, they’re 5-5 as home underdogs, 2-1 this year. 49ers have zero takeaways in their last six games, only five for season (-23 in turnovers). Niners won four of last six series games; Bears lost eight of last nine visits here, with last win in Santa Clara in 2014. Three of Chicago’s last four games stayed under the total; under is 5-3 in 49ers’ last eight games.

Steelers (8-5-1) @ Saints (12-2)— Pittsburgh is half-game ahead of Ravens in AFC North; could be all or nothing for their playoff hopes. Steelers snapped 3-game skid with home win over New England LW; Pitt is 4-2-1 SU on road this year, 2-0 as road underdogs- they’re 13-7-1 in last 21 games as road dogs. New Orleans can clinch #1 seed in NFC with win here; Saints are 12-1 in their last 13 games (10-3 vs spread); they’re 7-5 in last dozen games as a home favorite, 3-2 this year. Saints won three of last four series games, winning last meeting 35-32 at Heinz Field in ’14. Steelers lost 32-29/20-10 in last two visits here- their last series win in Superdome was in 1990. Saints’ last five games, four of last five Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (11-3) @ Seahawks (8-6)— KC has tiebreakers over Chargers, needs two wins for division title, and home field/bye in playoffs. Chiefs are 5-2 on road this year, 2-1 as road favorites- they’re 10-4 in last 14 games as road favorites. Under Reid, they’re 13-11 vs spread coming off a loss. Chiefs are 0-3 this year in games decided by 3 or fewer points. Seahawks had 4-game win streak snapped in SF Sunday; Seattle is 4-2 at home this year- under Carroll, they’re 12-5 as a home underdog. Five of their last seven opponents went over their team total. KC won last three series games, by 7-18-4 points; teams split last ten series games played here, last of which was in ‘10. Five of last six games for both teams went over the total.

Monday
Broncos (6-8) @ Raiders (3-11)— This is likely the Raiders’ last-ever game in the Coliseum, with city of Oakland suing the ballclub. Denver scored 14-16 points in losing its last two games; they are 3-4 on road this year, 2-1 as AF- they’re 21-13-1 in last 35 games as road favorites. Oakland lost eight of its last ten games; they’re 2-4 SU at home this year- they’re 2-7 vs spread as a single digit underdog this season. Raiders have gone over their team total four of their last five games. Raiders (+6) lost 20-19 in Denver in Week 2, blowing 12-0 halftime lead. Broncos ran for 168 yards that day. Teams split last six series games after Denver had won eight in row; Broncos lost 30-20/21-14 in last two visits to the Coliseum.

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 12:29 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Saturday, December 22

Washington @ Tennessee

Game 107-108
December 22, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.134
Tennessee
135.122
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 8
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 10
37
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+10); Over

Baltimore @ LA Chargers

Game 123-124
December 22, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.534
LA Chargers
143.002
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-4); Under

Sunday, December 23

Tampa Bay @ Dallas

Game 101-102
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
134.571
Dallas
133.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ New England

Game 103-104
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
125.128
New England
136.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 11
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+13 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 105-106
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
123.63
Carolina
130.532
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 7
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+3 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Miami

Game 109-110
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
123.471
Miami
128.741
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 5 1/2
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
39
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-4); Under

NY Giants @ Indianapolis

Game 111-112
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.072
Indianapolis
134.477
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 9 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+9 1/2); Under

Houston @ Philadelphia

Game 113-114
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
135.471
Philadelphia
132.641
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+1 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 115-116
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
133.533
Detroit
125.356
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 8
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-6); Over

Green Bay @ NY Jets

Game 117-118
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
133.597
NY Jets
120.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 13
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Over

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 119-120
December 23, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
124.210
Cleveland
129.014
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 9
44
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+9); Over

LA Rams @ Arizona

Game 121-122
December 23, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
139.087
Arizona
126.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 12
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 14 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+14 1/2); Under

Chicago @ San Francisco

Game 125-126
December 23, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
136.600
San Francisco
133,.915
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 4 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+4 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ New Orleans

Game 127-128
December 23, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
131,943
New Orleans
140.046
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 8
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-5 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ Seattle

Game 129-130
December 23, 2018 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
141.506
Seattle
136.362
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 2 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-2 1/2); Over

Monday December 24

Denver @ Oakland

Game 131-132
December 24, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
121.907
Oakland
127.836
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3); Over

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 10:26 AM

Opening Line Report - Week 16
Joe Williams

There are just two weekends remaining in the National Football League regular season, and everyone is still jockeying around for playoff seeding, etc. It's going to be an outstanding finish. Happy Holidays to everyone, by the way.

Several teams found lumps of coal in their stocking in Week 14, so watch the Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers, for instance, as they are either mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, or hanging on by a thread. Some teams, especially the skidding Panthers, could elect to rest star players due to nagging injuries with nothing left to play for. That's an important angle to take into consideration, so watch for news during the week.

Saturday, Dec. 22

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10, 37)

The Titans opened as 10-point favorites at all shops except for Caesars/Harrah's, which opened Tennessee at -9 1/2. However, after just a few minutes that was bet up to 10 to get in line with everyone else. There hasn't been a lot of movement on the total yet, but with QB Josh Johnson making his second straight start there isn't a lot of faith that this will be a high-scoring affair.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (OFF)

The Ravens heads into this game with a 7-3-1 ATS mark over their past 11 road games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning mark. The Bolts are coming off a huge win in Kansas City last Thursday, and they're 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. They have a lot of play for, as a potential first-round bye, and even the overall top seed in the AFC is still on the table.

Sunday, Dec. 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 46.5)

The Cowboys were blanked on the road in Indy last week, but Vegas is still a firm believer in the 'Boys. At Caesars/Harrah's, the line opened at -7, went up to -8 in the matter of a few hours, before tumbling back to -7 1/2. If you really feel strongly about a Dallas revival this week, Jerry's Nugget has Dallas at -6 1/2, while they opened the total at 46 and it dropped to 45 1/2. There is a one-point variance across the board, so shop around.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13, 45)

There is a little faith in the Bills early in the week, or doubt about the Patriots. You pick. Well, except at Westgate SuperBook which opened New England at -10 1/2, but the line quickly rose to -12 1/2 within 24 hours. Mirage-MGM and Wynn have the Pats at -13 and that line has help steady there, while Coasts saw some early money on Buffalo, pulling the line down from -13 to -12 1/2. Expect plenty of movement this week, if the first 24-36 hours is any indication.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-4, 50)

The Panthers lost their sixth consecutive game on Monday night, and they're eliminated from the postseason chase for all intents and purposes. After Monday's loss there were reports QB Cam Newton (shoulder) is not 100 percent, and it wouldn't be surprising to see the team tab QB Taylor Heinicke as the starter in the final two games, perhaps seeing what he can do. Watch that closely.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-4.5, 39.5)
The Dolphins are still alive in the AFC playoff hunt, but they need to keep winning. They're 6-1 SU at home this season, but bettors like the Jags early on. Atlantis opened the Fish at -5, but it moved to -4 within 12 hours. Westgate has seen the line yo-yo from an open of -3 1/2 to -4 1/2, back down to -4.

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 46.5)

The Giants were blanked last weekend at home, while it was the Colts doing the blanking against the NFC East contending Cowboys. That's likely why this line is so high. There hasn't been a ton of early interest, but the money which has come in appears to be on Indy. At the Stratosphere the line moved from -9 to -9 1/2 rather quickly. If you like the Colts, check into Treasure Island, who still had the game at -8 1/2 as of Tuesday early AM.

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-1, 45)

The first-place Texans roll into the City of Brotherly Love, and they're facing a suddenly alive Eagles team. We saw this movie before when QB Nick Foles surprised the Rams last season before kicking off an eventual Super Bowl run. Is 2018 going to be Nick Foles II: The Return of St. Nick?

Most shops opened this game at a pick 'em or with Houston laying the point. It quickly turned. Mirage-MGM opened at Texans -1 and it was flipped to Eagles -1 within seven hours. At Caesars/Harrah's, the line went from pick 'em to Philly -1 1/2. This game might see some of the biggest movement of the week.

Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 43.5) at Detroit Lions

The early money is on the Vikings, as they fight for their playoff lives against the lowly Lions, who have long since been eliminated.

Westgate opened the Vikes at -4, and it quickly moved to -4 1/2 within a few minutes of open. It is now sitting at -5 1/2, getting in line with most other shops. Caesars and Mirage are still sitting at -5 for now, if you love the Vikings. But act fast.

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (PK, 44)

The Packers were mathematically eliminated from the NFC playoff picture last week, and the Jets are extremely banged up and limping to the finish line. It will be interesting to see who is actually starting on both sides of the football this weekend.

Atlantis opened the Jets at -2, but the early money flowed in on the Packers, going to -1 within an hour and a half, and to a pick 'em within two hours. William Hill has been seeing a lot of action on this game, opening with the Pack -3, going down to -1 by Monday morning, and then up to Jets -2 by midday before settling back at -1. The total saw a lot of movement, too, opening at 45 before tumbling to 43 1/2.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7, 45)

This Batte of Ohio features the Browns still mathematically alive less than a week until Christmas. It's been a while since the fans on the shores of Lake Erie could say that.

Cleveland won 35-20 in the first meeting in Cincinnati, and they'll be facing a Bengals team which is pretty much dead in the AFC race. Vegas has them installed as a touchdown favorite nearly everywhere, although Caesars/Harrah's and TI still have Cleveland at -6 1/2 for now.

Los Angeles Rams (-14, 47.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Rams have stumbled on offense the past two weekends, losing at Chicago and home against Philly, and suddenly there are some doubts about their championship chances.

Most shops have the Rams as a healthy two-touchdown favorite, although Jerry's Nugget is offering them up at just -13. The Wynn opened this line higher than most, sitting at 48 with little movement so far.

Chicago Bears (-4, 42.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have been a fly in the ointment in Santa Clara, just ask the Broncos and Seahawks who left with damaging L's. The early money has been on the Bears, opening at the Strat at -3 1/2 and moving to -4. Westgate has seen a lot of movement, opening at -5, before slipping to -3 1/2, back up to -4 and then back to -3 1/2 again. It looks like there is a lot of belief in the Niners after their 3-1 ATS run in the past four home outings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6, 57)

The Steelers won a huge game at home against the Patriots last week, while the Saints grinded out an ugly 12-9 win in Carolina on Monday night. Will the short week favor the visitors? Well, the early money offshore at BetOnline.ag is on the Steelers, as the game opened at -7 and slipped to -6.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 53) at Seattle Seahawks

Both of these teams are coming off losses, and the Chiefs can ill-afford another if they want to stay on the perch in the AFC. A loss might mean an extra playoff game and no bye week to rest. Surprisingly there has been very little movement on this line, sitting at -2 1/2 at most shops. TI is offering up the Chiefs at -2 if you really love them.

The total varies from shop to shop, as high as 54 at Wynn, and 53 at Caesars, Golden Nugget, the Strat and Westgate, among others.

Monday, Dec. 24

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44.5) at Oakland Raiders

There hasn't been a lot of early action on this game, opening at -2 1/2 at most shops in favor of the skidding Broncos. If you like the Raiders, you can catch at extra half-point at TI, with Denver favored by -3 there. The total has received a little attention, moving from 44 1/2 to 45 at Coasts. Westgate has the total at 44, if you like the 'over', and the line has toggled between -3 and -2 1/2 foir the past day.

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 03:26 PM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

NO IR FOR WENTZ

Eagles coach Doug Pederson confirmed that Nick Foles will continue to start for Philadelphia in Week 16, even though the team is not sending Carson Wentz to the injured reserve. The Eagles are still in the playoff hunt after their win over the Rams and were aided by Carolina’s loss. They face another must-win on Sunday as they host the red-hot Houston Texans.

Foles was solid on Sunday night, completing 24-of-31 passes for 270 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. Though not reflected in the box score, he did look calm and confident all night, making key throws when needed — which is what should be expected from the 2017 Super Bowl MVP.

The Texans head to Philly as winners of 10 of their last 11 and with a defense ranked eighth in overall DVOA, but the truth is they are vulnerable to the pass. Houston ranks just 16th in passing DVOA and 26th in passing yards against per game (258.3). The Texans most recently allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 253 yards (his third-highest output of the season), while Andrew Luck threw for 399 yards in Week 14 and Baker Mayfield 397 yards in Week 13. Foles has proven clutch over the past year and we expect him to deliver in another must-win on Sunday against a defense that gives up chunks of passing yards. Take the Over on his passing yards total.

GORDON ON TRACK

L.A. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn hinted that Melvin Gordon would be ready to return on Saturday as the Chargers host the Ravens. “If we would have played that game on Sunday, he probably would have played," Lynn told the media on Monday.

Assuming no setbacks in practice this week, Gordon will make his return in a very tough spot against Baltimore defense ranked second in DVOA and sixth against the run. The Ravens are allowing just 87.6 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry, although they are coming off a game where Peyton Barber gashed them for 85 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries (4.5 YPC). The Chargers average 25.2 rushing attempts per game, but Melvin Gordon is averaging just 15.3 of those. We wouldn’t expect him to surpass his season average in a game coming back from a knee injury, meaning 13-15 carries is probably realistic. If we take the average of Gordon’s yards per carry (5.3) and Baltimore’s 3.8 yards allowed per carry, we get 4.55. Multiply that by 14 attempts and we land at a projected 63.7 yards. That’s our buy price for Gordon’s total this week, so take the Under if the total is set above that, and vice versa for the Over.

SMITH’S SEASON OVER

Falcons running back Ito Smith will go under the knife this week after he suffered a knee injury on Sunday and is done for the season. Presumably, this leaves Tevin Coleman to do the brunt of the running back duties for the rest of the season, including on Sunday at Carolina. However, we assumed this would be the case when Devonta Freeman went down with an injury earlier in the season and that’s when Smith stepped in with a role. It’s entirely possible that Brian Hill carves out a few carries in Week 16, especially Atlanta’s season done.

Even if he does get a few more carries than usual, Coleman will be in for a tough matchup against a Panthers defense ranked eighth against the rush in DVOA (but 29th against the pass). Carolina is averaging just 4.2 yards against per carry, though it did allow both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to get above that mark last night as Ingram ran for 5.3 yards per carry and Kamara 4.8. Both Saints runners’ stat lines were fueled by a long run, however, and both are superior running backs to Coleman. We expect Coleman’s rushing yards total to be inflated after his 145-yard performance in Week 15 and we’re taking the Under for Week 16.

GORE SPRAINS FOOT

Miami will be without running back Frank Gore on Sunday as he suffered a sprained foot in Week 15 and will miss the final two games. As recently as just a few games ago, we could’ve assumed that Kenyan Drake would move forward as the feature back but that is far from the case for Week 16. Drake saw just one carry and three receptions on Sunday as Kalen Ballage was the lead back after Gore went down, turning 12 carries into 123 yards and a touchdown. There was some speculation that Drake had a shoulder issue, but coach Adam Gase squashed that on Monday, saying Drake’s limited role was not injury related.

Moving forward, we’re simply guessing as to how Miami’s backfield will shake out. Drake is the more talented back and has been operating in a timeshare for most of the season, so it’s entirely possible that his Week 15 usage was disciplinary related — late for practice or a missed curfew, perhaps. We’ll continue to monitor this situation throughout the week but for now, the Dolphins’ backfield is one to avoid from a betting perspective.

FOURNETTE’S FOOT PROBLEM

Jacksonville running back Leonard Fournette will be limited in practice all week as he battles a foot injury. This could perhaps explain why Fournette received just 11 touches — and just one in the second half — against Washington last week, although Fournette told the media after the game that his limited usage was “the game plan coming in” as the team wanted to see what undrafted rookie David Williams could do.

This is another situation that will have to be monitored throughout the week but if Fournette is active at Miami on Sunday we’ll be looking to fade him. With the Jaguars’ season long over, there is just no reason to risk further injury to their franchise player. It doesn’t sound like Fournette’s injury is all that serious, which could lead to a situation where he suits up just because he’s able to but gets limited carries to reduce the risk of further injury. We’re going to tread lightly as Miami is a solid matchup for running backs as it allows 145.2 rushing yards per game, but we’ll be looking to take the Under on Fournette’s rushing yards total in thinking that he won’t be heavily involved in the game plan.

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 03:36 PM

NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t1. Bears 10-4 ATS
t1. Saints 10-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-4-2 ATS
4. Browns 9-5 ATS
5. Chiefs 8-5-1 ATS
t6. 7 teams tied at 8-6 ATS (Chargers, Pats, Cowboys, Titans, Dolphins, Redskins, Lions)

NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

32. Falcons 4-10 ATS
31. Jaguars 4-8-2 ATS
t27. Raider 5-9 ATS
t27. 49ers 5-9 ATS
t27. Bills 5-9 ATS
t27. Eagles 5-9 ATS
t24. 3 teams tied at 5-8-1 ATS (Jets, Packers, Rams)

NFL's Top OVER Teams (based on Over %):

1. Chiefs 9-4-1
2. Jets 9-5
3. Bengals 8-5-1
t4. Falcons 8-6
t4. Bears 8-6
t4. Chargers 8-6
t4. 49ers 8-6
t4. Bucs 8-6

NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 10-3-1
t2. Patriots 9-5
t2. Saints 9-5
t4. 13 teams tied at 8-6 (Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, Jags, Vikings, Eagles, Titans, Redskins)

**Udog** · 12-18-2018, 11:05 PM

Games to Watch - Week 16

We are going to need to wait until the final week of the season to see which 12 teams will be in the playoffs this season, but the picture should become a little clearer this weekend. We have several games on the NFL Week 16 schedule that are going to have a huge impact on the final standings, with a few teams probably seeing their playoff dreams die this weekend.

There are a lot of games that we could focus on this week, but we have chosen to narrow it down to four of the best.

Let’s take a closer look at four games we really like in Week 16 of the NFL season.

Baltimore Ravens (+4½ -105) at Los Angeles Chargers (-4½ -115)

For a moment last Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens were sitting on top of the NFC North and in prime playoff position, but by the time this game rolls around on Saturday, they may well find themselves below the playoff line if Tennessee beats Washington in the earlier game. The bad news for Baltimore is that they are on the road to a Chargers team that still has a clear shot at a first round bye, so they can expect no favors from their hosts in this one. The Chargers are 5-2 at home, while the Ravens have a losing road record, all of which adds up to a win for LA.

Houston Texans (+1 -110) at Philadelphia Eagles (-1 -110)

It appears as though the defending Super Bowl champions are not going to go down without a fight after all. There are certainly comparisons to be drawn to their late season run last year, with Nick Foles back under center and leading his team to a very unlikely win over the LA Rams last weekend. The Eagles are still below the playoff line, though, which means they probably need to win out and get some help along the way. They are in tough against a Houston team currently holding the #2 seed in the AFC. This has all the makings of a coin flip game to me, but I am going to have my coin land on the Texans, but only just.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6 -110) at New Orleans Saints (-6 -110)

With a loss to the New England Patriots last weekend, the Steelers would have dropped all the way down to the #8 spot in the AFC, which would have made a playoff appearance quite unlikely. Instead, they came away with a 17-10 win in a game that was a good deal more lopsided than the final score suggests. The Steelers need to find some more magic this weekend with a tough trip the Big Easy. The Saints have slowed down a little in the past few weeks, but they are still grinding out wins. This should be a fantastic battle that I believe the Steelers might edge.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2½ -110) at Seattle Seahawks (+2½ -110)

Yet another game with massive playoff implications for both teams. The Chiefs are in good shape at the top of the standings in the AFC, but a loss here could drop them all the way down to the #3 or #4 spot, especially if the Chargers win on Saturday. This is no easy trip, though, as we all know just how tough Seattle can be in their own building. They are 4-2 there this season and really need a win to keep the chasing pack at bay in the NFC playoff race. Another close one here, and while I am currently leaning towards KC, that may change as the week progresses. I am flip-flopping here.

**Udog** · 12-19-2018, 12:22 PM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

NEWTON TO BE SHUT DOWN?

The Panthers are a game and a half out of the playoffs after their Monday night loss to New Orleans, putting their chances of reaching the postseason at slim to none (well, five percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.com). Speaking on Tuesday, coach Ron Rivera did not rule out the possibility of shutting down Cam Newton due to the shoulder injury that has clearly been hindering him. Rivera said he’ll meet with Newton later in the week to evaluate him “in terms of his physical state and mental state.”

Should Newton get shut down, the Panthers would turn to Taylor Heinicke. The fourth-year quarterback out of Old Dominion has never made an NFL start but has appeared in six games with five pass attempts — most of which have been this season where he has been attempting Hail Marys because Newton hasn’t been able to.

The Panthers host the Falcons on Sunday and although that wouldn't be a difficult matchup from a statistical point of view, we’d be looking to fade him in his NFL debut. The Panthers’ team total is currently available at 24.5 and we’d recommend taking the Under right now if you think Newton will sit as it will certainly dip if Heinicke is named the starter.

RODGERS TOO?

Aaron Rodgers hurt his groin against Chicago on Sunday, though it isn't considered overly serious. Rodgers could be seen stretching it out at times on the sideline during the game and told reporters afterward that “[my groin] bothered me a little bit.”

There’s also the knee issue that has been bothering him all season, causing some — including the betting market — to speculate that Rodgers will be shut down. The line for Sunday’s game against the Jets opened at Green Bay -3 and shifted all the way to New York -1.5, though it has since leveled off to a pick ‘em.

Philbin, however, seemed to indicate that Rodgers will play if able. He told reporters that “my philosophy is football players are paid to play football games” and “that's my general philosophy and overall philosophy whether it's Aaron Rodgers or anybody else.”

We also know Rodgers is the ultimate competitor and will be on the field unless told not to by the medical staff. He was able to finish Sunday’s game without issue, so we’re expecting a week of limited practices and for him to be on the field Sunday in New York. This line is likely to tick back a bit in Green Bay’s favor if it’s announced that Rodgers will play, so it could be a good time to jump on the Packers at a pick ‘em.

THE OTHER AARON IN GB IS DEFINITELY DONE FOR THE YEAR

In sticking with news out of Green Bay, Aaron Jones’ exciting second-year season is finished after the Packers sent him to injured reserve because of a sprained MCL suffered in Week 15. Jones was electric in 2018, posting 5.5 yards per carry and will certainly be one of the top running backs in the league in 2019.

Jamaal Williams takes over as the lead back for the remainder of the season with Kapri Bibbs backing him up. The Packers visit the Jets on Sunday afternoon, which is not a terrible matchup against a New York defense ranked 20th in rushing DVOA. Williams had a solid day in relief of Jones last week, posting 55 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries and 42 additional yards through the air on four receptions — and that was against a Bears defense ranked first in DVOA.

In two games under coach Joe Philbin, the Packers have run the ball 19 and 25 times, meaning Williams should be in for a decent workload on Sunday. Williams has run for just 3.7 yards per carry on the season but has posted 4.3 and 4.6 yards per carry over his last two. The Jets are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. We’re projecting 17 carries for Williams and a modest 4.3 yards per carry, putting the buy price at 73.1 yards. Take the Over if his rushing yards total is set below that when the markets open up later in the week.

BILLS RB ISSUES CONTINUE

Buffalo placed running back Marcus Murphy on injured reserve on Tuesday after he suffered a dislocated elbow in Week 15. Murphy was the starter against Detroit as both LeSean McCoy (hamstring) and Chris Ivory (shoulder) sat out. This leaves Keith Ford as the only healthy back on the Bills’ roster. The undrafted rookie out of Texas A&M ran for 46 yards on 14 attempts against the Lions in a game where the Bills were held to just 3.2 yards per carry.

The Bills head to New England on Sunday as a 13-point underdog in what has suddenly become a must win for the Patriots.

Neither McCoy or Ivory have been ruled out as of yet and there’s a chance that one, or both, could suit up as both were late scratches last week. The matchup won’t be bad for whoever gets carries on Sunday as the Pats rank 21st in rushing DVOA and are allowing a league-high five yards per carry, but we’ll need to take a wait-and-see approach to see who will be getting carries in Week 16.

**Udog** · 12-21-2018, 12:10 AM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

GORDON LEAVES PATRIOTS

Josh Gordon announced early Wednesday that he is “stepping away from the football field for a bit to focus on my mental health.” There are also reports that he is facing yet another indefinite suspension from the league for violating the terms of his reinstatement. It’s possible Gordon has played his final snap in the NFL, but at this point, it’s about more than football for him. We wish him the best in his recovery.

New England hosts Buffalo on Sunday as a 13-point favorite and will use some combination of Julian Edelman, Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson and Phillip Dorsett at receiver. Even with Gordon in the mix, this was always going to be a game where we were looking to back Edelman. Brady’s most trusted target is on a tear of late, with receiving lines of 7-90-0 and 9-86-1 over his last two games on 23 total targets. Those target numbers should only increase with Gordon out of the mix and we’re expecting another big game from Edelman in a game where the Patriots will likely keep their foot on the gas all afternoon in a must-win. Take the Over on Edelman’s receiving yards total.

KEENAN KEEN TO GET BACK

Reports on Thursday morning are that Keenan Allen is expected to return to the lineup on Saturday night as the Chargers host the Ravens. He has been trending in that direction after a limited practice session on Wednesday. Assuming he suits up in Week 16, Allen will have not missed any games, even though he was knocked out of the Chargers’ last contest in the first quarter.

Allen will return to a very difficult matchup against a Baltimore defense ranked second in passing DVOA. They were eaten up for 121 yards by Mike Evans last week, but digging a bit deeper we see that 64 of those yards came on one big play and that Evans only hauled in 4-of-9 targets. There’s also the fact that he won’t be at 100 percent and an awkward fall on his hip could cause him a few snaps or even get him shut down once again.

There’s no denying that Allen has been one of the hottest wide receivers in football, averaging 7.8 catches for 94.6 yards per game since L.A.’s bye in Week 8 if you don’t include Week 15 where he exited very early on. This is looking like a situation to avoid for Week 16 until we get a better sense of just how healthy (or hurt) Allen is.

CONNER STILL SITS

James Conner returned to the practice field on Wednesday but basically just watched from the sideline, confirming that he’s “still not ready”. This means rookie Jaylen Samuels gets another start on Sunday as the Steelers travel to New Orleans. Samuels has played 71 percent of the snaps over the last two weeks and has done his damage in different ways. Two weeks ago, he excelled through the air, posting seven receptions for 64 yards, while last week it was on the ground, with 19 carries for 142 yards.

On Sunday, Samuels faces his toughest test yet in New Orleans and this is likely a game where he does his damage through the receiving game, much like he did against the Raiders two weeks ago. The Saints boast the league’s best run defense, allowing just 53 rushing yards per game to running backs, but have given up six or more receptions to a running back on four different occasions so far this season, including Christian McCaffrey’s 8-67 line last week.

This game should see its fair share of points with a total of 53 and Samuels will be involved. Take the Over on his receptions total and think about doubling-down with the Over on his receiving yards total.

GURLEY GOOD TO GO?

Rams running back Todd Gurley (knee) missed practice on Wednesday but coach Sean McVay did say afterward that he expects his top offensive weapon on the field on Sunday at Arizona. Assuming he suits up, he’ll be in a dream matchup against a Cardinals defense allowing 144.9 rushing yards per game, second-most in the NFL. Arizona was scorched last week for 145 yards on 11 carries by Tevin Coleman, while Ito Smith added 34 yards on nine carries.

This is clearly a position to back Gurley at full health but there is a legitimate chance that he doesn’t get a full complement of snaps in a game where the Rams can win without him. Even if he does get the start, there’s the risk of Gurley resting late in the game if the Rams have a big lead, which is entirely possible as a 14-point road favorite. We’ll be monitoring the news cycle but as of today, we’re leaning towards fading Gurley, especially if his rushing yards total is set north of 80 yards.

TANNEHILL BANGED UP

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill was limited at Wednesday’s practice with shoulder and ankle injuries after taking an absolute beating at Minnesota last weekend, getting sacked nine times for a loss of 71 yards. We got a winner by fading Tannehill’s passing yards total last week as we suggested he would come crashing down to earth from a stats perspective and we fully expect that to happen once again in Week 16.

Tannehill and the Dolphins host Jacksonville on Sunday and, even though the Jaguars have had a disastrous season, they still rank fifth in DVOA and seventh against the pass. Over the last two weeks, the Jags have given up 151 and 162 passing yards to Josh Johnson and Marcus Mariota. They also shut out Andrew Luck three weeks ago, though he was able to throw for 248 yards on 52 passing attempts.

Even though Tannehill has had a successful year from a passer-rating standpoint (100.6), he has still thrown for 185 or fewer yards in five of his nine starts this season. We’re expecting a sixth on Sunday and backing the Under on his passing yards total.

**Udog** · 12-21-2018, 12:37 PM

NFL Underdogs: Week 16 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

Everyone has their favorite Christmas movies, and for me I’m a sucker for any film variation of Charles Dickens’, “A Christmas Carol”. Give me Muppets and Michael Caine, a CG Jim Carey, or best of all Bill Murray, and have that stingy ole bastard get scared straight by spectral spirits on Christmas Eve - I’m in.

Speaking of Scrooges, I dropped a 0-3 lump of coal in our stockings last week, so some divine intervention could be called for. And with that, NFL Underdogs will be visited by three ghosts, helping us handicap the NFL Week 16 pointspreads and uncover the best bets getting the points this weekend…
“Who, and what are you?” Scrooge demanded. “I am the Ghost of Christmas Past.”

Getting stuck in the past can cripple you as a sports bettor. The dreaded “recency bias” can make you blind beyond what you just witnessed, and in the case of the Giants and Colts, we just watched New York eat a big stinky goose egg from Tennessee and Indianapolis post a clean sheet versus the Cowboys. That’s why books are dealing the G-Men as big as 10-point pups in Indy this Sunday.

However, if you’re able to look beyond that 17-0 shutout in Week 15, you’ll see a New York team playing solid football. Since a bye in Week 9, the Giants are 4-1-1 ATS. The offense, which was stuck in a low gear most of the season, was averaging 31.4 points per game in the five contests before last Sunday. Missing Odell Beckham Jr. isn't great (still up in the air for Sunday) but this team has played - and scored - without him.

New York is the best road bet in the NFC at 6-1 ATS, with an average margin of plus-2.6 in its seven road games, compared to minus-8.5 at home. The Giants find Indianapolis in a tough situational spot: coming off a huge win over Dallas and looking at a possible AFC South showdown with Tennessee – if they win this game - to see who earns a wild card ticket to the postseason.

I don’t think the Giants pull off the upset, but they’re definitely not 10 points worse than the Colts at this time.

Pick: N.Y. Giants +10

“Come in! and know me better, man! I am the Ghost of Christmas Present,” said the Spirit. “Look upon me!”

Presently, 60 percent of bets sit on the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. And presently, NFL pundits and betting analysts are quick to point out that since taking over as the No. 1 QB for the Ravens, rookie Lamar Jackson has faced defenses ranked 32nd, 31st, 28th, 26th, and 24th. And presently, the Chargers are riding a four-game winning streak with a 3-1 ATS mark in that span, including road wins over the Steelers and Chiefs.

And presently, I don’t give a crap about those things.

I’ve been wary of L.A. all season, especially that defense. The Bolts are giving up just 21.5 points per home game, but have played scoring offenses ranked 32nd, 27th, 24th, 22nd, 21st, and 14th (a shell of the Bengals offense in Week 14) as hosts this season (they gave up 38 points to KC at home in Week 1). And a big part of that defensive success hasn’t been due to the stop unit at all.

Los Angeles runs one of the most methodical offenses in the league, running an average of just 59.5 plays per game (third lowest) and chewing up 31:02 per game in time of possession. That ball-hogging playbook is even stingier at home, where the Chargers lead the NFL in home TOP at 33:40.

Enter Jackson and the Ravens, who average more than 36 minutes in time of possession since going all in on the run game with the former Heisman winner at the wheel.

That’s helped the defense limit foes to just 18.6 points per game during that stretch, but unlike the Chargers, Baltimore’s defense isn’t dependent on the offense to limit their exposure (were allowing 17.7 ppg in the nine games before the shift to Jackson).

Presently, I’m grabbing the points with the Ravens Saturday night.

Pick: Baltimore +4.5

“I am in the presence of the Ghost of Christmas Yet To Come?" The Spirit answered not, but pointed onward with its hand.

The L.A. Rams have big plans for the future, most notably a deep run into the postseason. And in order for those plans to come to fruition, Los Angeles is going to need RB Todd Gurley and other key players as close to 100 percent as the football gods allow in December.

That means pumping the breaks a bit in the final two games of the season, including a Week 16 date in Arizona. Earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC is a mathematical miracle, leaving head coach Sean McVay to be careful with his first teamers rather than chasing the Saints in the conference standings.

I see McVay going all out in the opening half versus Arizona, building a big lead and then periodically peeling back the depth chart to reduce the risk of wear and tear on his starters. Los Angeles has shown a tendency to leave the backdoor open for opposing teams and has covered the spread only once in its last seven games.

On top of that, the Cardinals just picked up former Rams return man Pharoh Cooper off waivers, and the fact that Cooper could relay some inside intel to his new coaches isn’t lost on McVay.

"Yeah, there are certainly some different things that I'm sure Pharoh could share," McVay told reporters.

Perhaps Cooper can show Arizona the future – and hopefully that future contains the Cardinals covering the 16 points.

Pick: Arizona +16

Last week: 0-3 ATS
Season: 28-16-1 ATS

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Sat., Dec. 22 - Mon., Dec. 24)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Sat., Dec. 22 - Mon., Dec. 24)

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