NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Tues., Nov. 6 - Sat., Nov. 10)

[Udog]

Wake Forest at N.C. State
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes from the ACC Atlantic as Wake Forest and North Carolina State face off in Raleigh in a battle of schools just over 100 miles apart. While neither will catch Clemson in the Atlantic standings, this is important game on both sides and a rematch of a memorable game from 2017.

Matchup: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at N.C. State Wolfpack
Venue: at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina
Time/TV: Thursday, November 8, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: N.C. State -17, Over/Under 69
Last Meeting: 2017, at Wake Forest (-2½) 30, N.C. State 24

Dave Clawson has taken Wake Forest to a bowl game the past two years but that run is in jeopardy with the Demon Deacons 4-5 with three games to play. This is the final game on the Atlantic side for Wake Forest as the final two contests are Coastal crossover games hosting Pittsburgh and playing at Duke. Wake Forest can expect to be an underdog in all three games and will need to win two of those three games to make the postseason.

Accomplishing that task has the added hurdle of quarterback Sam Hartman being lost for the season last week. With Kendall Hinton suspended and Jamie Newman injured at the start of the season, the freshman Hartman was thrust into the starting role from the opener and he has performed reasonably well with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Newman, a sophomore, will take over with 19 pass attempts under his belt in three games of the past two seasons. Newman is 6’4” and 240 pounds as his size will be an asset but the Deacons have not come close to matching the production that John Wolford brought to the team last season.

Wake Forest has a solid running game averaging 224 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry with two 600 yard rushers, leaning on senior Matt Colbrun more in recent weeks. Newman has some mobility but the top player on the offense has been receiver Greg Dortch who has 69 catches for 846 yards while also providing a threat in the return game.

At 4-5 the best win for Wake Forest came in overtime in the opener at Tulane with the other victories coming against FCS Towson, Rice, and Louisville. Wake Forest played within seven vs. Boston College early in the season but has lost by double-digits in every defeat since. In ACC play Wake Forest is 1-4 while being outscored by 84 points. The Demon Deacons are 2-1 on the road this season however including getting the only ACC win on the road at Louisville.

N.C. State is 6-2 but with a lopsided loss to Clemson the Wolfpack also have a negative scoring differential in ACC play. N.C. State went into Clemson undefeated but lost 41-7 and then lost at Syracuse the following week. N.C. State did beat Virginia and Boston College at home and last week bested Florida State 47-28.

While it has been a down year for the Seminoles that was a big win for N.C. State and despite the 19-point final the Wolfpack were out-gained in the contest but benefited from two turnovers. N.C. State will be favored in all four remaining games as finishing 10-2 is realistic, with the program not reaching 10 wins since 2002 under Chuck Amato.

Dave Doeren has led steady success in Raleigh with now five straight winning seasons. The Wolpack have frequently played very light non-conference schedules and that will be no different this season, though in fairness West Virginia was on the September schedule but the game was cancelled due to the hurricane.

Expectations were grounded for this year’s team with very few returning starters from a 9-4 squad that won the Sun Bowl and finished 6-2 in ACC play. The one key player returning was quarterback Ryan Finley and he has delivered a productive senior season. Finley transferred from Boise State and is posting easily his best season with a nearly 68 percent completion rate for 8.5 yards per attempt. He has 16 touchdowns passes and just six interceptions while approaching 2,500 yards passing.

N.C. State hasn’t run the ball very successfully with Reggie Gallaspy leading the team with 554 yards and nine touchdowns but posting only 4.0 yards per carry and as a team N.C. State gains only 3.6 yards per attempt. The biggest contrast in the numbers between these teams comes in run defense as N.C. State is allowing 3.1 yards per carry for the 13th best mark nationally, with only Michigan State and Texas A&M allowing fewer net rushing yards this season. Wake Forest ranks 119th nationally in rushing yards per carry allowed this season, surrendering 26 rushing touchdowns.
Ultimately N.C. State should be at a significant advantage in this matchup but it is a possible letdown spot after a prominent win in convincing fashion over Florida State for homecoming. Newman also provides a challenging matchup physically with his size and preparing for a quarterback that there isn’t much film on can provide some surprises for a defense.

Last Season: N.C. State should have no shortage of motivation for this game after losing 30-24 at Wake Forest last season. Then 7-3, N.C. State was a slight underdog against 6-4 Wake Forest. It was a back-and-forth game with the score tied four different times after 0-0. N.C. State settled for a short field goal in the fourth quarter to knot the game at 24-24 but Wake Forest quickly answered but had the PAT blocked to lead by six. N.C. State went 71 yards on the next drive but Emeka Emezie fumbled right outside the goal line with about two minutes remaining. N.C. State got the ball back in the final minute and picked up a roughing the passer call on first down to reach the Wake Forest 31-yard-line. Finley was ultimately intercepted in the end zone as Wake Forest held on despite a 502-334 yardage edge for N.C. State.

Historical Trends:

-- N.C. State is 25-13 straight up but just 20-18 against the spread in this series since 1980, though winning and covering in four of the last six and each of the last five home meetings.

-- This is set to be the biggest spread in this series since N.C. State was -21 in a 38-3 win in 2010. N.C. State is 21-27 ATS as a double-digit home favorite since 1998 including a 1-5 run since the start of last season.

-- Wake Forest is 10-5 ATS as a road underdog since 2015 including going 6-2 ATS in the last eight instances as a road underdog of 10 or more points.

-- Under Doeren, N.C. State is 24-15 S/U and 18-21 ATS at home.

-- While under Clawson, Wake Forest is 9-17 S/U and 14-12 ATS in road games.

[Udog]

��COLLEGE FOOTBALL INJURY ALERT��

Early reports indicate that Notre Dame (-17) QB Ian Book will not play Saturday against Florida State.
Current Total: 54

[Udog]

By: Monty Andrews


WAKE FOREST'S RED ZONE WOES

Wake Forest has boasted one of the worst red-zone defenses in the nation this season – and that could be a major problem Thursday as the Demon Deacons visit the N.C. State Wolfpack. Wake Forest has allowed points on 26 of their opponents' 27 journeys into the red zone (24 touchdowns, two field goals), the fourth-worst rate in all of Division I. And the Wolfpack haven't needed much red zone help so far this season, having converted 37 of their 43 red-zone trips into points (25 touchdowns, 12 field goals). In addition, their 5.4 red-zone chances per game rank fourth in the country.

With the Wolfpack boasting one of the best offenses in the country and the Demon Deacons unable to stop anyone inside their own 20-yard line, we recommend taking the home team to not only cover at -19, but to surpass their team total of 43.5.


BACK TO WIMBUSH

Brandon Wimbush will be back under center – albeit out of necessity – as the Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to bolster their College Football Playoff resume Saturday against visiting Florida State. Wimbush will return to the starting role in place of Ian Book, who has been ruled out for this weekend's pivotal encounter with the Seminoles after suffering a rib injury in last week's victory over Northwestern. It's a shot at redemption for Wimbush, who has completed less than 51 percent of his collegiate pass attempts and has just one touchdown pass against four interceptions this season.

The downgrade to Wimbush is a boon for Florida State, which ranks fifth in the ACC in sacks (25) and sixth in interceptions (eight) and is a terrific option to cover at +16.5. Notre Dame is also a stretch to reach its team total of 35.5, having averaged just 23.3 points in Wimbush's three starts this season.


COAN OF SILENCE

There isn't much clarity on who will start at quarterback for Wisconsin this weekend at Penn State. No. 1 QB Alex Hornibrook is still recovering from a concussion that forced him out of last week's 31-17 win over Rutgers and is considered questionable for Saturday's encounter with the Nittany Lions. Jack Coan took over in his absence and would get the start if Hornibrook is unable to return to action Saturday. Coan has completed 25-of-38 pass attempts for 222 yards with a pair of touchdowns and zero interceptions in parts of two games with the Badgers this season.

Wisconsin doesn't rely on its QB much – its 63.2-percent run play rate ranks 11th in the nation – and with Coan under center, combined with the Nittany Lions boasting a below-average run defense, bettors should expect the Badgers to run the ball even more than usual. If they're successful, they'll be a strong play at +9 and a solid bet to surpass their 21.5-point team total.


KICKERS STAY HOME

Don't expect to see many field goals at Hofheinz Pavilion this Saturday as the Houston Cougars host the Temple Owls in what should be a wild AAC affair. The Cougars have practically eliminated the three-point play from their arsenal this season, having scored a whopping 59 touchdowns against just five field goals. The Owls boast a similar (though not as ridiculous) ratio, having produced 36 touchdowns and only six field goals. Among the other teams ranked in the top 50 in points per game, only eight have kicked six or fewer field goals on the season.

Deciding who will score first is all bettors should need to make a nice cash in this one – you can go with either a Houston TD (+120) or a Temple touchdown (+170) as the game's first points. Conversely, a field goal for either team as the opening scoring play pays out at +250.

[Udog]

Fresno State at Boise State
Brian Edwards

Boise State hasn’t been a home underdog since facing Boston College in the 2005 Humanitarian Bowl in the last game of the Dan Hawkins Era. The Broncos haven’t been home ‘dogs in a regular-season game since the 2001 opener vs. Washington St., and they haven’t been home puppies in a conference game since taking on Nevada in 1999.

Nevertheless, Bryan Harsin’s team will be in that role Friday night at Bronco Stadium when Fresno State (8-1 straight up, 8-1 against the spread) comes calling in a rematch of last year’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game at this same venue on the smurf turf.

As of early Thursday night, most betting shops had Fresno State installed as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 53. BSU was +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).

Jeff Tedford returned to his alma mater after a dreadful 1-11 campaign in 2016. He quickly turned Fresno State into just the second FBS team to go from double-digit losses to double-digit wins in the span of one season. Since Tedford took over, Fresno State has compiled an incredible 18-5 SU record to go with a 18-3-2 ATS mark.

Two of the losses came in back-to-back weeks last year at top-ranked Alabama and at sixth-ranked Washington. The Bulldogs took the cash in both instances, however.

Fresno State opened the season with a 79-13 home win over Idaho before dropping a 21-14 decision at Minnesota in Week 2. Since then, the Bulldogs have won seven games in a row both SU and ATS, with each victory coming by at least 18 points. They’re off a 48-3 win at UNLV as 27-point road ‘chalk.’

Senior QB Marcus McMaryion, the transfer from Oregon State who is in his second season as a starter at FS, completed 26-of-35 passes for 274 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for 39 yards on seven attempts. KeeSean Johnson had eight receptions for 97 yards, while Michiah Quick had five catches for 49 yards.

FS is ranked 11th in the country in scoring with its 40.4 points-per-game average. McMaryion has connected on 70.9 percent of his passes for 2,416 yards with a 20/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 157 yards and seven scores, averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

Johnson, a first-team All-MWC selection in 2017, is on his way to duplicating those honors. He has 62 receptions for 858 yards and six TDs. Jared Rice has 38 catches for 477 yards and three TDs, while Jamire Jordan has caught 20 balls for 279 yards and two TDs.

Sophomore RB Jordan Mims has rushed for 306 yards and four TDs, in addition to making 19 catches for 274 yards and two TDs. Another sophomore RB, Ronnie Rivers, has 265 rushing yards and five TDs with a 5.9 YPC average. Rivers has 10 catches for 167 yards and two TDs.

FSU is ranked 14th in the nation in total defense, 16th at defending the pass, 30th in run defense and second in scoring ‘D’ (12.3 points per game). This unit is led by junior LB Jeff Allison, who has recorded 84 tackles, three tackles for loss, two interceptions for 27 return yards, two QB hurries, one pass broken up and 0.5 sacks.

Tedford’s bunch is 4-1 both SU and ATS in five road games, including a 38-14 win at UCLA, a 21-3 victory at Nevada and a 38-7 triumph at New Mexico. As a road favorite on Tedford’s watch, the Bulldogs have produced a 5-0-2 spread record.

Boise State (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) is 4-1 in league play, trailing Utah St. by one game in the MWC’s Mountain Division. The Broncos will host the Aggies in both team’s regular-season finale on Nov. 24, so they need a win over FSU to keep control of their own destiny to get back to the MWC Championship Game.

Since dropping a 19-13 decision to San Diego St. as a 13.5-point home favorite on Oct. 13, BSU has won four consecutive games. However, the Broncos have merely one cover in that span and are mired in a 1-3-1 ATS slide. They failed to get the money in last week’s 21-16 win over BYU as 11.5-point home ‘chalk.’

BSU jumped out ahead of the number in the first quarter, going ahead 14-0 on an Alexander Mattison one-yard TD run and a seven-yard TD pass from Brett Rypien to A.J. Richardson. The Cougars would get a pair of field goals in the second quarter to cut the deficit to 14-6 at halftime. Then when Zach Wilson scored on a four-yard TD run midway through the third quarter, BYU was down by only one point.

Boise St. would answer with a Mattison three-yard TD run with 1:44 left in the third quarter. BYU got a 41-yard FG with 6:32 remaining, but that was as close as it would get. The 37 combined points went way ‘under’ the 53.5-point tally.

Mattison rushed for 89 yards and two scores on 25 carries, in addition to catching five balls for 40 receiving yards. Rypien completed 23-of-35 passes for 214 yards with one TD and an interception. Richardson had four catches for 53 yards and one TD.

Rypien is second in school history in career passing yards behind only Kellen Moore. He has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 2,779 yards with a 24/6 TD-INT ratio this year. Senior WR Sean Modster has 45 receptions for 660 yards and four TDs, while Richardson has 39 grabs for 653 yards and eight TDs. Junior WR John Hightower has 30 catches for 496 yards and six TDs, while C.T. Thomas has 30 receptions for 397 yards and three TDs.

Mattison has run for a team-best 726 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 4.1 YPC. Hightower has rushed eight times for 163 yards and a pair of scores.

BSU has won three of its four home games while compiling a 2-2 spread record. This is obviously the first home underdog situation since Harsin took over for Chris Petersen in 2014.

When these schools met in last year’s regular-season finale, Fresno St. won by a 28-17 count as a seven-point home underdog. The victory gave FSU the MWC’s West Division title and forced a rematch in Boise the following week.

The 45 combined points in the first encounter at Bulldog Stadium dipped ‘under’ the 50-point total. McMaryion threw for 332 yards and two TDs without committing a turnover, while Johnson had six receptions for 119 yards and two TDs. Rypien threw for 278 yards without a TD or a pick, but Mattison was limited to 63 rushing yards and one TD on 15 totes.

BSU avenged the loss by winning 17-14 as a 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ in the MWC Championship Game the following week. The ‘under’ cashed for a third straight time in this rivalry when the 31 combined points dropped below the 50.5-point tally.

Fresno State led 14-10 at intermission, but the Broncos got the game-winning points on Ryan Wolpin’s two-yard TD run with 4:42 remaining. Rypien threw for 246 yards without committing a turnover, while Mattison ran for 50 yards and one TD on 14 attempts. McMaryion struggled by completing only 16-of-34 throws for 172 yards and zero TDs compared to one interception. He ran for 33 yards and two scores on seven carries.

The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for FSU, 4-1 in its road assignments. The Bulldogs have watched their games average combined scores of 52.8 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for BSU, 2-2 in its home outings. The Broncos have seen their games average combined scores of 61.7 PPG.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Boise State LB Riley Whimpey will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL sustained in last week’s 21-16 home win over BYU. Whimpey was leading the Broncos in tackles with 55. He also had two sacks, one TFL, two QB hurries and one PBU.

-- The ‘over’ has hit at a 9-2 clip in BSU’s past 11 games played on Friday.

-- Ohio State is mired in a 0-5 ATS slide. As of Thursday night, the Buckeyes were 3.5-point road favorites for Saturday’s showdown at Michigan. They are 3.5-point home underdogs to Michigan in their regular-season finale at several books in Las Vegas and offshore.

-- The ‘over is on a 5-0 run for Louisville, which is a 21-point underdog for Friday’s game at the Carrier Dome against Syracuse. According to a report this week, as many as 20 U of L players have expressed interest in transferring when the season ends.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 5-0 run for California, which has held its past three foes to 36 combined points. Justin Wilcox owns a 10-4 ATS record as an underdog. The Golden Bears were five-point underdogs for Saturday’s game at Southern Cal, as of late Thursday.

-- The ‘over’ has cashed at a 5-1 clip for Notre Dame in its past six games. However, the ‘under’ is 4-1 for the Fighting Irish at home. They host FSU on Saturday and are expected to do so without star QB Ian Book (15/4 TD-INT ratio), who was ruled ‘out’ early Thursday due to an injury to his ribs. The ‘over’ is also on a 5-1 run for the Seminoles, who moved from 18-point underdogs to 16.5-point puppies after the new of Book’s injury broke. They’ve gone 1-3 both SU and ATS in four previous road assignments. This game will kick at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

-- Utah QB Tyler Huntley is out for the season with a broken collarbone sustained in last week’s 38-20 loss at Arizona State. Huntley had completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,762 yards with a 12/6 TD-INT ratio. He had rushed for 304 yards and four TDs. Since four-star 2018 recruit Jack Tuttle decided to transfer last month, the back-up duties fall to RS freshman Jack Shelley, who has completed 6-of-14 passes for 99 yards with zero TDs and one interception. Shelley has 47 rushing yards on nine attempts. If Shelley gets injured, Kyle Whittingham would have to turn to WR Britain Covey or LB Chase Hansen, both of whom played QB in high school. Covey is the Utes’ top WR with 49 receptions for 529 yards and one TD. He has completed all three of his pass attempts for 71 yards and two TDs without an interception. The Utes had been on fire with four consecutive wins both SU and ATS (and by margins of 19, 32, 13 and 31 against Pac-12 competition) before going to ASU. Now they’re in bounce-back mode with Oregon coming to Rice-Eccles Stadium this weekend.

-- Stanford TE Kaden Smith has 44 receptions for 601 yards and two TDs for the season. The third-year sophomore is turning it up the past two weeks, catching 17 balls for 219 yards and two TDs. Smith and the Cardinal host Oregon St. this week. Smith’s 25-yard reception on a fourth-and-10 play was crucial in Stanford’s 15-14 come-from-behind win in Corvallis last season. His production will be even more important Saturday vs. Oregon St since the Cardinal will be without WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, who is ‘out’ with an ankle injury. Whiteside has 48 receptions for 754 yards and 11 TDs.

-- Temple RB Ryquell Armstead is ‘questionable’ at Houston due to an ankle injury. Armstead has run for 768 yards and six TDs this season.

[Udog]

The Triple Option: College football Week 11 picks and predictions
Andrew Caley

Last Saturday night was without a doubt, my most hated day of the year. Yup. Daylight savings.

While most people (my lady included) cheer for gaining an hour of sleep one night a year (while conveniently forgetting they lost an hour earlier in the year), I begrudgingly watch as the clock on my phone automatically falls back an hour.

I hate everything that comes along with this. First, it just means an extra hour of work for me on a busy Saturday night. The golf clubs go back in the closet. But worst of all, it means winter is coming. And while where I live isn’t exactly like beyond the Wall in Game of Thrones, it isn’t far off. Simply put, winters in Atlantic Canada suck.

It sucks is because we only get about 10 hours of sun per day. I know a lot of places are like that in the winter, but there’s just something disheartening about waking up in the dark, going to work, and then leaving work and it’s already dark again. You don’t want to do much and it just saps the energy from you. It’s just the worst.

That being said, the sun is setting earlier than some college football programs would like. Front and center in that picture is the Penn State Nittany Lions.

Penn State may have called it a year after last week’s embarrassing 42-7 beatdown handed to them by Michigan. Trace McSorley is clearly more hurt than he’s letting on and any hopes the Nittany Lions had at a Big Ten championship were dashed.

This week, they host another disappointing Big Ten team in the Wisconsin Badgers. However, the Badgers still have an outside shot at the Big Ten West division title (West leading Northwestern is a big dog at Iowa this week).

Wisconsin has just battered its backers, covering the number only twice this season and it sounds like it may be without starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook, who's dealing with a concussion. Now, this may sound weird, but the Badgers may be better off with backup Jack Coan.

In limited action, the sophomore Coan has gone 25 for 38 for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. But Coan passes the eye test better than Hornibrook, looking more athletic in and out of the pocket with a slightly bigger arm.

And, of course, there is Jonathan Taylor. The Badgers’ back leads the nation in rushing with 1,363 yards at a clip of 6.6 yards per carry while tallying 11 majors. Taylor will face a Penn State rush defense that ranks 79th in the nation allowing 172.2 yards per game.

So, with Taylor primed for a good game and Penn State’s propensity for not being able to extend drives (it ranks 111th in third-down conversion rate), Wisconsin will control the clock and keep this one close.

Pick: Wisconsin +9

TCU Horned Frogs at West Virginia Mountaineers (-11.5, 55.5)

Wow. Will Grier and the Mountaineers saw the sun setting on their season and said "NOPE". Grier’s off-balance touchdown pass with 16 seconds to go was one of the most beautiful and clutch throws this season. And then to have the balls to go for two and convert to win the game against Texas. Just. Wow.

Grier is legit. He's the best quarterback in the country not named Tua.

His gluttony of weapons welcome TCU to Morgantown this week. Now, this is a classic letdown spot for the Mountaineers: hosting a lesser Horned Frogs, coming off a crazy dramatic last-second victory to keep their conference title and College Football Playoff hopes alive. But those weapons are too much for a banged-up TCU defense to handle.

Plus, the Mountaineers probably feel a little disrespected at being ninth in the latest CFP rankings, so they’ll come out with something to prove.

Meanwhile, TCU has had just terrible quarterback play and hasn't covered a spread since mid-September. That doesn’t change this week.

Pick: West Virginia -11.5

Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats (-11.5, 47)

It’s the Sunflower State Showdown!

What a hilariously appropriate matchup to analyze this week. Kansas has said goodbye to David Beaty as its head coach and, while it may seem unthinkable to those in Manhattan, but Bill Synder may be officially too old to be coaching.

Both losers of five of their last six, these rivals have identical 3-6 records heading into the battle for The Governor’s Cup. For Kansas, that actually shows improvement. But for K-State, it’s a much bleaker result.

The Wildcats rank 115th in total offense and 108th in points per game and Synder has received plenty of criticism for his handling of the quarterback situation. The Wildcats also have one of the highest sack rates in the country, allowing 26 and it won’t get any easier against a Jayhawks pass rush that can pressure the quarterback with regularity. That’s when the secondary takes over. The Jayhawks actually rank second in the country in turnover margin at plus-15 (13 interceptions).

A lot of people don’t like a lame-duck coach, but Beaty more than likely chose to finish out the season and should have his squad motivated to send him away with a nice parting gift. Kansas may not win, but it’ll keep it close. Sunrise, sunset.

Pick: Kansas +11.5

Last week: 2-1

Season to date: 17-13

[Udog]

Clemson at Boston College
Brian Edwards


Matchup: Clemson at Boston College
Venue: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
TV/Time: ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET

Clemson will take its undefeated record to Chestnut Hill on Saturday night to face Boston College in a crucial ACC showdown. As of early Friday night, most betting shops had the Tigers installed as enormous 19-point road favorites with a total of 55.5. The Eagles were +800 to win outright (risk $100 to win $800).

While most are focused on Clemson (9-0 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) remaining unbeaten on the way to another College Football Playoff berth, Boston College is hoping to win out and steal the Tigers’ spot as the ACC Atlantic’s representative in the conference championship game.

Steve Addazio’s team is 4-1 in ACC play with a road game at FSU and a home scrap with Syracuse in the regular-season finale on deck. Since losing a 28-23 decision at North Carolina State on Oct. 6, BC has ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS. The Eagles are off last week’s 31-21 win at Va. Tech as two-point road underdogs.

Boston College (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) trailed 14-7 at halftime in Blacksburg, but it scored 21 unanswered points to take a 28-14 lead with 8:51 remaining in the fourth quarter. After the Hokies responded with a touchdown with 4:48 left, BC put the game away with 2:31 remaining on Colton Lichtenberg’s 28-yard field goal.

A.J. Dillon led the way by running for 96 yards and one TD on 24 carries. Sophomore QB Anthony Brown connected on 15-of-26 throws for 177 yards and one TD without an interception. He also rushed for 37 yards on seven totes, while Travis Levy produced 75 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 11 attempts. Tommy Sweeney caught four balls for 61 receiving yards and Korab Idirizi had two receptions for 49 yards and one TD.

Dillon, a first-team All-ACC selection as a true freshman in 2017, was playing in his second game after missing back-to-back contests with a sprained ankle last month. He rushed 32 times for 149 yards and one TD in his initial return on Oct. 26 when BC dropped Miami, 27-14.

Dillon has rushed for 897 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Ben Glines has 376 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.6 YPC average. Glines also has nine receptions for 123 yards and three TDs.

Brown is vastly improved in his sophomore season. His touchdown-to-interception ratio has improved from 11/9 to 16/5. Brown has completed 57.9 percent of his passes for 1,567 yards. Sweeney is his favorite target, hauling in 24 receptions for 230 yards and three TDs. Kobay White has 19 catches for 298 yards and three TDs, while Jeff Smith has 17 grabs for 275 yards and a team-best four TDs.

BC is unbeaten in five home games with a 4-1 spread record. This is the Eagles’ second home underdog spot, as they were 3.5-point puppies in the win over the Hurricanes two Fridays ago. During Addazio’s six-year tenure, BC has compiled an 8-8 ATS record as a home 'dog.

Clemson has a 4-0 SU record and a 3-1 ATS mark on the road. As road favorites since Dabo Swinney took over midway through the 2008 season, the Tigers have gone 16-18 ATS.

Swinney’s team has dealt out four straight pimpslaps since needing a fourth-quarter rally to nip Syracuse, 27-23, as a 24-point home favorite back on Sept. 29. Clemson has breezed to victory at Wake Forest (63-3), vs. N.C. State (41-7), at FSU (59-10) and vs. Louisville (77-16), beating the closing spread by 110 combined points.

Trevor Lawrence was named the starting QB over Kelly Bryant on the Monday before hosting The ‘Cuse. Bryant elected to transfer and retain a year of eligibility after getting the demotion. Lawrence was knocked out of the game against the Orange with a head injury in the first half.

The true freshman QB has done nothing but deliver since returning the following week at Wake Forest. Lawrence threw for a career-best 314 yards and four TDs without an interception in the beatdown of the Seminoles in Tallahassee. For the season, Lawrence has connected on 65.1 percent of his throws for 1,549 yards with an 18/3 TD-INT ratio.

Tee Higgins has 35 receptions for 514 yards and seven TDs, while Justyn Ross has 22 catches for 476 yards and five TDs. Amar Rodger has 32 grabs for 390 yards and four TDs, and Hunter Renfrow has caught 27 balls for 305 yards and one TD.

Clemson is ranked seventh in the country in total yards, 30th in passing yards, sixth in rushing and fourth in scoring with a 47.8 points-per-game average. The Tigers are four-deep in the backfield with Travis Etienne serving as the featured back. Etienne, a second-team All-ACC pick as a true freshman last season, has rushed for 999 yards and 15 TDs. He has an incredible 8.6 YPC average on 116 attempts.

Lyn-J Dixon has 457 rushing yards, four TDs and an eye-popping 11.1 YPC average. Senior Adam Choice (7.9 YPC) has turned 45 carries into 354 rushing yards and three TDs, while Tavien Feaster has produced 294 rushing yards and four TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Feaster ran for a season-best 101 yards and two TDs on merely six attempts last week, but he sustained a concussion that has him listed as ‘questionable’ at BC.

Clemson is ranked fifth in the nation in total defense, 18th at defending the pass, eighth in run defense and fourth in scoring ‘D,’ holding opponents to 13.3 PPG. This unit is led by a defensive line that’s stocked with future NFL players.

Junior DE Clelin Ferrell, a first-team All-American in 2017, has recorded 31 tackles, 7.5 sacks, five tackles for loss, four QB hurries, two forced fumbles and a pair of passes broken up. Senior DT Christian Wilkins, a third-team All-American in 2016 and a first-team All-ACC pick last year, has produced 29 tackles, 6.5 TFL’s, 2.5 sacks, four QB hurries, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery.

Clemson is second in the nation in TFL’s with 89 and third in sacks with 32. The Tigers are +3 in turnover margin, while BC is +8.

In addition to the iffy status of Feaster, Clemson starting OG Sean Pollard (back) and CB Mark Fields (groin) are listed as ‘questionable.’ Dillon’s ‘probable' status is the extent of BC’s injury report.

The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Tigers, 4-0 in their road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 61.1 PPG.

The ‘over’ has hit at a 5-4 overall clip for the Eagles, going 4-1 in their home contests. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 61.3 PPG.

Clemson has won seven games in a row over BC, but the Eagles are 4-1 ATS in the past five head-to-head encounters. The Tigers captured a 34-7 victory last year, but they were unable to cover as 33.5-point home ‘chalk.’ This was an extremely misleading final, too, as the game was knotted at 7-7 until Choice scored on a six-yard TD dash with 11:59 remaining in the fourth quarter.

Etienne rushed for 113 yards and two TDs on nine carries, while Renfrow had six receptions for 53 yards. Dillon was held to 57 rushing yards and one TD on 18 attempts. Brown completed just 14-of-30 throws for 133 yards with one interception.

According to weather.com as of early Friday evening, Saturday night’s forecast was calling for clear conditions and temperatures in the 30s. However, winds are expected at speeds of 10-20 miles per hour and “could occasionally gust over 40 mph.”

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.