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Total Talk - Week 9
BetDSI
Week 8 was a good one to follow the steam in regards to totals, as the two games I isolated in this piece a week ago managed to cash tickets in the way that they had moved. The Arizona/UCLA game that had moved upwards from 55 to 57.5 finished with 61 total points, while the Buffalo/Toledo contest that saw a six-point move to the 'under' still stayed well below any total in the 60's as they finished with just 48 points.
Last week's results show that sometimes following the early week steam and taking a supposed bad number on some lines isn't a bad option sometimes, especially when the total is still too high/low after the move than what you believe it should be. Both of last week's isolated games cashed tickets following the move, but can this week's isolated games provide the same results?
Biggest Movers to the 'Over'
Wisconsin vs Northwestern: Open: 51 – Current: 53.5
Admittedly I did not think too many Big 10 matchups would fall into this category as ones that move to the 'over', especially when the game doesn't involve a team like Ohio State that's known for scoring plenty of points each week. But this Wisconsin/Northwestern game has seen its total jump nearly three points already this week, and that's with betting percentage numbers at VegasInsider.com showing 80%+ of the action having already come in on the 'under'. So how should we approach this total that's seen significant reverse line movement already?
Well for one, movement like that means you've got to likely assume that while the minority of tickets being bet on this total have been for the 'over', those few tickets had a lot of zeros written on them. A few big money bets have played a part in forcing this total upwards, and it's these spots where I'd lean more towards following the steam/line move rather than stand in it's way. Having that nasty hook on a key number like 53 is a little concerning for 'over' wagers now, but maybe it's more of a case that the market still prices these Wisconsin totals too low.
The Badgers are 4-0 O/U in their last four games, and have gone 5-2 O/U on the year overall. Most of Wisconsin's totals have closed in the high-40's/low 50s range like we've got here, and last week's 49-20 win by the Badgers is only more fuel to add to a potential 'over' play this week. Defensively the Badgers aren't as stout as they've been in year's past – they've allowed 30 or more in three straight and four of five – and while Northwestern's attack looked sluggish a week ago in narrowly getting by Rutgers, I'd expect QB Clayton Thorson and the rest of the Wildcats offense to be excited and prepared to play well this week.
Northwestern has gone 'over' the number in two of their last three games, and of the three times the Wildcats have scored 30+ this year, each of the last two have come at home. In fact, any time Northwestern has had a total lined in the 50's this year it's cashed an 'over' ticket (2-0 O/U), as maybe oddsmakers expected a higher-scoring game here from the beginning with this number opening up at 51.
The betting market numbers and trends suggest that this is a move that should probably be followed rather than faded, although we will likely see some more 'under' money pull back this number late, maybe even all the way back to it's opening line. I say that because when 80% of bettors have already taking a piece of the 'under' (at any stage this week) and have seen the total do nothing but climb all week, chances are most of those will quickly realize they weren't with the market early, let this line climb as high as it can, and then fire more 'under' wagers on the number when it's peaked.
Waiting until as close to kick-off as you can get is probably the best course of action now – if anything just to try and get an 'over' position below the key number of 53 – as we could see that nasty hook get shed soon enough. If that is what ends up happening, you'd better believe I'll be following this steam on the 'over' as I do believe that both sides have a great shot to get into the 30's offensively this week.
Biggest Movers to the 'Under'
San Diego State vs Nevada: Open 48 – Current: 45
This game made this week's piece because it shares a lot of the same characteristics the Wisconsin/Northwestern game has just in reverse. San Diego State and Nevada have seen steep reverse line movement on their total as well, dropping three full points from opening despite 80% of the action coming in on the high side. Considering neither side has been an offensive juggernaut this year and are a combined 4-11 O/U this season, it's easy to see why the 'under' originally soaked in some large wagers to force this drop.
Yet, following reverse line moves on 'unders' can be tricky simply because the lower the number is on the whole, sometimes one costly mistake/turnover can squeak the game 'over' the line. Every point matters when backing an 'under', and you'd better be confident that this current total of 45 is still well within your range for an 'under' play to get on board now.
San Diego State and Nevada may not be offensive juggernauts as each come into this game riding four-game 'under' runs, but points aren't that scarce when these two hook up, as we've seen 45 or more points in five of the last six meetings between these two. That lone outlier finished with 44 points, so chances are this current number of 45 has been bet into the optimal range for this game and any value on the 'under' is probably gone.
But I said that for last week's 'under' on the Buffalo/Toledo six-point move and that still stayed well below the number. Yet, a total of 60 still gives you more margin for error with an 'under' play then 45 does, especially in college football.
It would be 'under' or nothing for me now on this game, but keep an eye on whether this total gets pushed up higher throughout the next few days leading up to a late 10:30 EST kickoff here. Any move to 47 or more and I'll be following this steam on the low side for sure.
Best Total Bet for Week 8: Texas vs Oklahoma State Over 62
With the theme of this week's article being reverse line movement on college football totals, this week's best bet comes from a game that hit the chopping block in terms of being included in the “biggest movers: Over” section earlier on. The Longhorns/Cowboys game has seen their number rise almost three points from open, and that's with a heavy majority of the action already going low (80%+.)
Situationally, this Texas/OK State game is in a solid spot to back an 'over' as both teams are coming off no doubt 'unders' in their last outing, with OK State's 31-12 loss as -8 favorites the more shocking of the two results. The Cowboys have actually lost two in a row (and three of four) as favorites of at least a TD, so the bye week they had prior to this week's game probably couldn't have come at a better time. That extra prep time gave this OK State bunch time to figure out what was going wrong with their attack that routinely scores 40+.
Texas got by Baylor (23-17) before they went for a week of rest as well. That time off was needed for Texas as it was clear they were a team running out of gas after a tough stretch of games against the likes of USC, TCU, and Oklahoma, all games which the Longhorns won. The sloppy, sluggish effort against Baylor can be cast aside now, as the Longhorns understand that to go into Oklahoma State and leave with a win, you'd better be prepared to score 40+ yourselves.
Iowa State managed to do that a few weeks back in their 48-42 win over the Cowboys, and while this game might not get that many points, I do believe we will see 70+ total points scored by the end of it. OT is always a possibility with the spread floating around a FG, and that's never a bad last resort option to any 'over' play.
Finally, with Texas getting QB Sam Ehlinger back under center, the Longhorns should be confident in their chances of getting the win in a potential shootout. Ehlinger has been the catalyst for this Texas attack all year long, and he and his offensive teammates have always gotten “up” for these high profile matchups. The three highest point totals put up by Texas this year (37, 31, and 48 points) came against USC, TCU, and Oklahoma respectively, so it's not like scoring in bunches is rare for the Longhorns in these high-profile games.
This week's game against Oklahoma State should be no different, as the Cowboys 7-1 O/U run following an ATS loss, their 4-1 O/U run following a week off, and their 4-1 O/U run after scoring less than 20 points all get to come into play here. Six of the last seven times these two have played in Stillwater, Oklahoma the 'over' has cashed and this week's meeting should follow suit.
BetDSI
Week 8 was a good one to follow the steam in regards to totals, as the two games I isolated in this piece a week ago managed to cash tickets in the way that they had moved. The Arizona/UCLA game that had moved upwards from 55 to 57.5 finished with 61 total points, while the Buffalo/Toledo contest that saw a six-point move to the 'under' still stayed well below any total in the 60's as they finished with just 48 points.
Last week's results show that sometimes following the early week steam and taking a supposed bad number on some lines isn't a bad option sometimes, especially when the total is still too high/low after the move than what you believe it should be. Both of last week's isolated games cashed tickets following the move, but can this week's isolated games provide the same results?
Biggest Movers to the 'Over'
Wisconsin vs Northwestern: Open: 51 – Current: 53.5
Admittedly I did not think too many Big 10 matchups would fall into this category as ones that move to the 'over', especially when the game doesn't involve a team like Ohio State that's known for scoring plenty of points each week. But this Wisconsin/Northwestern game has seen its total jump nearly three points already this week, and that's with betting percentage numbers at VegasInsider.com showing 80%+ of the action having already come in on the 'under'. So how should we approach this total that's seen significant reverse line movement already?
Well for one, movement like that means you've got to likely assume that while the minority of tickets being bet on this total have been for the 'over', those few tickets had a lot of zeros written on them. A few big money bets have played a part in forcing this total upwards, and it's these spots where I'd lean more towards following the steam/line move rather than stand in it's way. Having that nasty hook on a key number like 53 is a little concerning for 'over' wagers now, but maybe it's more of a case that the market still prices these Wisconsin totals too low.
The Badgers are 4-0 O/U in their last four games, and have gone 5-2 O/U on the year overall. Most of Wisconsin's totals have closed in the high-40's/low 50s range like we've got here, and last week's 49-20 win by the Badgers is only more fuel to add to a potential 'over' play this week. Defensively the Badgers aren't as stout as they've been in year's past – they've allowed 30 or more in three straight and four of five – and while Northwestern's attack looked sluggish a week ago in narrowly getting by Rutgers, I'd expect QB Clayton Thorson and the rest of the Wildcats offense to be excited and prepared to play well this week.
Northwestern has gone 'over' the number in two of their last three games, and of the three times the Wildcats have scored 30+ this year, each of the last two have come at home. In fact, any time Northwestern has had a total lined in the 50's this year it's cashed an 'over' ticket (2-0 O/U), as maybe oddsmakers expected a higher-scoring game here from the beginning with this number opening up at 51.
The betting market numbers and trends suggest that this is a move that should probably be followed rather than faded, although we will likely see some more 'under' money pull back this number late, maybe even all the way back to it's opening line. I say that because when 80% of bettors have already taking a piece of the 'under' (at any stage this week) and have seen the total do nothing but climb all week, chances are most of those will quickly realize they weren't with the market early, let this line climb as high as it can, and then fire more 'under' wagers on the number when it's peaked.
Waiting until as close to kick-off as you can get is probably the best course of action now – if anything just to try and get an 'over' position below the key number of 53 – as we could see that nasty hook get shed soon enough. If that is what ends up happening, you'd better believe I'll be following this steam on the 'over' as I do believe that both sides have a great shot to get into the 30's offensively this week.
Biggest Movers to the 'Under'
San Diego State vs Nevada: Open 48 – Current: 45
This game made this week's piece because it shares a lot of the same characteristics the Wisconsin/Northwestern game has just in reverse. San Diego State and Nevada have seen steep reverse line movement on their total as well, dropping three full points from opening despite 80% of the action coming in on the high side. Considering neither side has been an offensive juggernaut this year and are a combined 4-11 O/U this season, it's easy to see why the 'under' originally soaked in some large wagers to force this drop.
Yet, following reverse line moves on 'unders' can be tricky simply because the lower the number is on the whole, sometimes one costly mistake/turnover can squeak the game 'over' the line. Every point matters when backing an 'under', and you'd better be confident that this current total of 45 is still well within your range for an 'under' play to get on board now.
San Diego State and Nevada may not be offensive juggernauts as each come into this game riding four-game 'under' runs, but points aren't that scarce when these two hook up, as we've seen 45 or more points in five of the last six meetings between these two. That lone outlier finished with 44 points, so chances are this current number of 45 has been bet into the optimal range for this game and any value on the 'under' is probably gone.
But I said that for last week's 'under' on the Buffalo/Toledo six-point move and that still stayed well below the number. Yet, a total of 60 still gives you more margin for error with an 'under' play then 45 does, especially in college football.
It would be 'under' or nothing for me now on this game, but keep an eye on whether this total gets pushed up higher throughout the next few days leading up to a late 10:30 EST kickoff here. Any move to 47 or more and I'll be following this steam on the low side for sure.
Best Total Bet for Week 8: Texas vs Oklahoma State Over 62
With the theme of this week's article being reverse line movement on college football totals, this week's best bet comes from a game that hit the chopping block in terms of being included in the “biggest movers: Over” section earlier on. The Longhorns/Cowboys game has seen their number rise almost three points from open, and that's with a heavy majority of the action already going low (80%+.)
Situationally, this Texas/OK State game is in a solid spot to back an 'over' as both teams are coming off no doubt 'unders' in their last outing, with OK State's 31-12 loss as -8 favorites the more shocking of the two results. The Cowboys have actually lost two in a row (and three of four) as favorites of at least a TD, so the bye week they had prior to this week's game probably couldn't have come at a better time. That extra prep time gave this OK State bunch time to figure out what was going wrong with their attack that routinely scores 40+.
Texas got by Baylor (23-17) before they went for a week of rest as well. That time off was needed for Texas as it was clear they were a team running out of gas after a tough stretch of games against the likes of USC, TCU, and Oklahoma, all games which the Longhorns won. The sloppy, sluggish effort against Baylor can be cast aside now, as the Longhorns understand that to go into Oklahoma State and leave with a win, you'd better be prepared to score 40+ yourselves.
Iowa State managed to do that a few weeks back in their 48-42 win over the Cowboys, and while this game might not get that many points, I do believe we will see 70+ total points scored by the end of it. OT is always a possibility with the spread floating around a FG, and that's never a bad last resort option to any 'over' play.
Finally, with Texas getting QB Sam Ehlinger back under center, the Longhorns should be confident in their chances of getting the win in a potential shootout. Ehlinger has been the catalyst for this Texas attack all year long, and he and his offensive teammates have always gotten “up” for these high profile matchups. The three highest point totals put up by Texas this year (37, 31, and 48 points) came against USC, TCU, and Oklahoma respectively, so it's not like scoring in bunches is rare for the Longhorns in these high-profile games.
This week's game against Oklahoma State should be no different, as the Cowboys 7-1 O/U run following an ATS loss, their 4-1 O/U run following a week off, and their 4-1 O/U run after scoring less than 20 points all get to come into play here. Six of the last seven times these two have played in Stillwater, Oklahoma the 'over' has cashed and this week's meeting should follow suit.
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