NFL Underdogs: Week 6 pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan
If you haven’t heard, you suck at sports betting. At least, you do if you consider yourself among the “betting public”.
Don’t know if you’re included in the masses? Check your forehead. Symptoms of “public bettors” may include:
• Waiting until Sunday to place all your bets
• Betting on a side/total regardless of where the number has been/where it’s going
• Basing bets on something called the “due factor”
• Ignoring markets like props and alternative lines, and blindly sticking to full-game odds
• Getting your insight exclusively from mainstream sports media coverage
If you catch yourself doing one or more of these things (and there are plenty of other “public” tells), you just might be a public bettor. And if you are, there’s also a good chance you’ve taken a Tony Montana-sized bath in the opening five weeks of NFL football.
According to our consensus, which provides the bet percentage (percent of ATS tickets written on a side) for each and every game, NFL teams drawing 60 percent or more of bets are a dismal 10-23 against the closing spread in 2018. That means the most popular picks each week are covering for the public only 30.3 percent of the time. You can almost hear the bookies laughing from here.
It's been even worse for "Joe Public" the past four weeks, with those same 60-plus percent picks turning out a 5-19 ATS mark (0-4 ATS in Week 5). That’s a win rate of less than 21 percent for the most popular pointspread plays since the second week of the schedule.
But, let he who is without square angles cast the first stone.
I’ll be the first to admit that sometimes my inner “public bettor” gets the best of me, and I bet a bad number just to have action down on a game. And, despite the eye-popping and bankroll-busting trend we just mentioned, I’m siding with one of the most public picks on the Week 6 consensus board.
The Buffalo Bills are getting 10 points when visiting the Houston Texans this Sunday and 61 percent of bettors have grabbed that pile of points and are circling the wagons.
The line opened -8.5 Houston and made a quick jump to -10 – a move that many would consider “reverse line movement” since the spread is moving away from the side with the higher number of bets (usually indicating more money or sharp play on the other side). However, 8.5 points is a dead number in terms of setting spreads and books are much quicker to move off of that dead number and go straight to 10 if they expect more money will come in on the favorite. This is what we’re seeing here.
The Texans don’t have the horse power to cover the 10-point gulf. Minus a 37-point day versus the Colts’ dismal defense in Week 4, Houston is averaging just 19.5 points over its other four contests. And for all the Bills’ woes, they’ve been solid on defense since the second half of the Chargers game in Week 2. Over its past three contests, Buffalo has allowed a total of just 40 points (13.3 ppg) and is giving up only 4.9 yards per play – fifth lowest in the NFL in that span.
So, paint me “public” in Week 6. They seem due for a good Sunday…
Pick: Buffalo +10
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 41.5)
To re-establish my “sharpness” after such a public play (at least that’s what it sounds like in my head…), I’m banking on a line I was waiting to show up all week. The Bears opened -2.5 at most books (some opened pick’em) visiting the Miami Dolphins and the spread quickly shot to -3.
This one stinks of a field goal to me, which is why I took my time and waited for the half-point hook to show on the home side. This one actually climbed to Dolphins +4 at a couple shops but sharp money snatched that up right away (it was on the board for only an hour and a half).
Chicago is coming off a bye and riding a three-game winning streak – which sounds great, doesn’t it? But the Bears are a bad bet on the road, going 6-12 ATS in their last 18 away from the Windy City and are 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Another factor I’m throwing into my “pointspread stew” is that Chicago takes on the mighty Patriots next week, so a possible lookahead spot in play for Week 6.
Miami is being discounted for two poor road showings – getting outscored 65-24 in those games – and had played three of its last four away from Hard Rock Stadium before this week. It returns home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS and has covered in four of its last five stands overall.
Pick: Miami +3.5
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7, 52)
After three weeks of football, talking heads were ready to crown the Rams the best defense in the NFL. Then they allowed 31 points in back-to-back games, including a 33-31 squeaker versus Seattle, which was averaging just over 21 points in the four games leading up to Week 5.
Over the past three outings, L.A. has given up an average of 392 yards against and watched opponents convert on third downs 54 percent of the time – second worst in the NFL, behind Atlanta, in that stretch. It wasn't the forward pass doing all the damage: L.A. buckled for an average of 128.3 rushing yards against over that trio of tilts, including 190 gains on the ground versus Seattle Sunday.
Los Angeles finds itself in a tough spot, going to the thin air of Mile High for what is its second straight road game (and the middle of three straight away from home). The Broncos are a different team in Denver, as we saw in that valiant effort versus the Chiefs, and have the ground game to play keep-away from Jared Goff & Co.
I’d love to get +7.5 on this one but I settle for the touchdown and the home team.
Pick: Denver +7
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 10-5 ATS
Jason Logan
If you haven’t heard, you suck at sports betting. At least, you do if you consider yourself among the “betting public”.
Don’t know if you’re included in the masses? Check your forehead. Symptoms of “public bettors” may include:
• Waiting until Sunday to place all your bets
• Betting on a side/total regardless of where the number has been/where it’s going
• Basing bets on something called the “due factor”
• Ignoring markets like props and alternative lines, and blindly sticking to full-game odds
• Getting your insight exclusively from mainstream sports media coverage
If you catch yourself doing one or more of these things (and there are plenty of other “public” tells), you just might be a public bettor. And if you are, there’s also a good chance you’ve taken a Tony Montana-sized bath in the opening five weeks of NFL football.
According to our consensus, which provides the bet percentage (percent of ATS tickets written on a side) for each and every game, NFL teams drawing 60 percent or more of bets are a dismal 10-23 against the closing spread in 2018. That means the most popular picks each week are covering for the public only 30.3 percent of the time. You can almost hear the bookies laughing from here.
It's been even worse for "Joe Public" the past four weeks, with those same 60-plus percent picks turning out a 5-19 ATS mark (0-4 ATS in Week 5). That’s a win rate of less than 21 percent for the most popular pointspread plays since the second week of the schedule.
But, let he who is without square angles cast the first stone.
I’ll be the first to admit that sometimes my inner “public bettor” gets the best of me, and I bet a bad number just to have action down on a game. And, despite the eye-popping and bankroll-busting trend we just mentioned, I’m siding with one of the most public picks on the Week 6 consensus board.
The Buffalo Bills are getting 10 points when visiting the Houston Texans this Sunday and 61 percent of bettors have grabbed that pile of points and are circling the wagons.
The line opened -8.5 Houston and made a quick jump to -10 – a move that many would consider “reverse line movement” since the spread is moving away from the side with the higher number of bets (usually indicating more money or sharp play on the other side). However, 8.5 points is a dead number in terms of setting spreads and books are much quicker to move off of that dead number and go straight to 10 if they expect more money will come in on the favorite. This is what we’re seeing here.
The Texans don’t have the horse power to cover the 10-point gulf. Minus a 37-point day versus the Colts’ dismal defense in Week 4, Houston is averaging just 19.5 points over its other four contests. And for all the Bills’ woes, they’ve been solid on defense since the second half of the Chargers game in Week 2. Over its past three contests, Buffalo has allowed a total of just 40 points (13.3 ppg) and is giving up only 4.9 yards per play – fifth lowest in the NFL in that span.
So, paint me “public” in Week 6. They seem due for a good Sunday…
Pick: Buffalo +10
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 41.5)
To re-establish my “sharpness” after such a public play (at least that’s what it sounds like in my head…), I’m banking on a line I was waiting to show up all week. The Bears opened -2.5 at most books (some opened pick’em) visiting the Miami Dolphins and the spread quickly shot to -3.
This one stinks of a field goal to me, which is why I took my time and waited for the half-point hook to show on the home side. This one actually climbed to Dolphins +4 at a couple shops but sharp money snatched that up right away (it was on the board for only an hour and a half).
Chicago is coming off a bye and riding a three-game winning streak – which sounds great, doesn’t it? But the Bears are a bad bet on the road, going 6-12 ATS in their last 18 away from the Windy City and are 0-2 ATS on the road this season. Another factor I’m throwing into my “pointspread stew” is that Chicago takes on the mighty Patriots next week, so a possible lookahead spot in play for Week 6.
Miami is being discounted for two poor road showings – getting outscored 65-24 in those games – and had played three of its last four away from Hard Rock Stadium before this week. It returns home where it is 2-0 SU and ATS and has covered in four of its last five stands overall.
Pick: Miami +3.5
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos (+7, 52)
After three weeks of football, talking heads were ready to crown the Rams the best defense in the NFL. Then they allowed 31 points in back-to-back games, including a 33-31 squeaker versus Seattle, which was averaging just over 21 points in the four games leading up to Week 5.
Over the past three outings, L.A. has given up an average of 392 yards against and watched opponents convert on third downs 54 percent of the time – second worst in the NFL, behind Atlanta, in that stretch. It wasn't the forward pass doing all the damage: L.A. buckled for an average of 128.3 rushing yards against over that trio of tilts, including 190 gains on the ground versus Seattle Sunday.
Los Angeles finds itself in a tough spot, going to the thin air of Mile High for what is its second straight road game (and the middle of three straight away from home). The Broncos are a different team in Denver, as we saw in that valiant effort versus the Chiefs, and have the ground game to play keep-away from Jared Goff & Co.
I’d love to get +7.5 on this one but I settle for the touchdown and the home team.
Pick: Denver +7
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 10-5 ATS
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