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Sharp bettors like Stanford's odds in college football Week 4 battle vs. Oregon
Patrick Everson
Star running back Bryce Love took last week off to recover from an undisclosed injury, but he'll be back for Stanford tonight at Oregon, and bettors have moved the Cardinal to 2.5-point road chalk.
Week 4 of the college football season has plenty of intriguing games for bettors, even if only two contests pit top-25 foes against each other. We check in on the action and odds movement for several Saturday matchups, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook; Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US; and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip.
No. 7 Stanford Cardinal at No. 19 Oregon Ducks – Open: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5
Stanford gave Heisman Trophy prospect Bryce Love a breather last week as he recuperated from an undisclosed injury, but he’ll be in the lineup for this 8 p.m. ET Pac-12 clash. The Cardinal (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) certainly didn’t need Love against UC Davis, winning 30-10 as a 31-point home favorite.
Oregon is still looking to cash for the first time this season, but has an unblemished on-the-field record. The Ducks (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) have had three cakewalk opponents, including San Jose State last week, when they won 35-22 as a massive 42.5-point faves.
“I’ve seen sharp money on Stanford, and it’s pushed that number up from -1 to -2.5,” Murray said of activity at the Superbook.
William Hill US, with more than 100 shops across Nevada and a pair of books in New Jersey, also opened Stanford -1 and moved to -2.5.
“We’ll definitely need Oregon,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve got lots of Northern Nevada money on Stanford.”
No. 17 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns – Open: +3; Move: None
Texas Christian looks to bounce back in this Big 12 battle at 4:30 p.m. ET, after giving Ohio State a pretty good test in Week 3. The Horned Frogs (2-1 SU and ATS) actually led well into the third quarter, but couldn’t make it stand in a 40-28 setback as a 12.5-point pup at AT&T Stadium.
Texas has a pair of wins since its season-opening loss to Maryland at FedExField. The Longhorns (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) had no trouble with Southern California last week, rolling 37-14 as a 3-point home chalk.
“All the money is for TCU,” Bogdanovich said. “We haven’t moved off 3, but we definitely need Texas.”
The Superbook moved off 3 early in the week, to 3.5, but only for a few hours.
“I’ve seen sharp play on both sides of this, but I trust the group on Texas more,” Murray said. “We are still dealing it at TCU -3.”
No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -27; Move: -26; Move: -26.5; Move: -26
Defending national champion Alabama just mows down opponents and covers big spreads this season. In Week 3, the Crimson Tide (3-0 SU and ATS) boatraced Mississippi 62-7 as a 22.5 point road favorite.
Texas A&M is facing its second top-five opponent in three weeks, with a big Week 2 rally against Clemson coming up just short in a 28-26 loss as a 12-point home pup. Last week, the Aggies (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) dumped Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 laying 12 points at home.
“We took a sharp bet on A&M +27. That’s a group I really respect on that that side,” Murray said of activity on the 3:30 p.m. ET tilt. “But I’m sure we will still need the Aggies in a big way.”
William Hill US opened ‘Bama -26 and reached 27 before peeling back to 26.5.
“Sharps are on the ‘dog, public on the favorite,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll probably need A&M, but I don’t think it’ll be a big decision.”
No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open: +7.5; Move: +7
Notre Dame has been in a trio of one-score-games and come out on top each time. The Fighting Irish (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) went off as 14-point home faves against Vanderbilt and held on for a 22-17 victory last weekend.
Wake Forest got out of the gate 2-0 SU, but couldn’t keep it going in Week 3 against a significant step up in competition. The Demon Deacons (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) led Boston College at times, but fell 41-34 as 6.5-point home pups.
“It’s pretty good two-way action,” Shelton said of wagering at The Mirage and other MGM books. “We had some sharp play on Wake Forest on Friday – a sharp player took Wake on the moneyline, and we also had sharp money at +7 flat, so now were at Notre Dame -7 (even).”
At William Hill US, the Irish opened -8.5 and were down to 7 by Thursday night for this noon ET kickoff.
“Sharps are definitely on Wake,” Bogdanovich said.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers – Open: +13.5; Move: +14; Move: +15; Move: +14.5; Move: +14; Move: +14.5; Move: +13.5; Move: +14; Move: +14.5
Georgia has gone beyond 40 points in all three of its outings so far, cashing in the last two, including a 41-17 road rout of South Carolina giving 8.5 points in Week 2. Last week, the Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) dropped Middle Tennessee 49-7 as a hefty 34.5-point chalk.
Missouri is also off to a 3-0 SU start (2-1 ATS), cashing in easy victories over Tennessee-Martin and Wyoming in Weeks 1 and 2, before a much tougher Week 3 challenge. The Tigers were laying 5 points at Purdue and got a field goal as time expired to squeak out a 40-37 win.
“We’ve got big bettors on opposite sides of this game,” Shelton said. “One bettor came in from out of town and played low six figures on Georgia, and also on Tennessee (vs. Florida). And a high-end player we respect played a similar amount on Missouri early in the week.”
At William Hill US, the number has bounced between 14 and 14.5, sticking at the higher number the past three days for a noon ET contest.
“It’s all Georgia, and 95 percent public money,” Bogdanovich said. “That’ll be a big decision.”
In other noteworthy games on the Saturday docket:
• Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 12:20 p.m. ET: The Panthers opened -4 and were down to -3 by Thursday, when things began to balance out. “We’re dead even to it, but sharps are on the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said.
• Kansas at Baylor, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Bears opened -7.5, reached 8.5, then went back to 7.5. “We got a sizable six-figure wager on Baylor,” Shelton said. “We’re at 7.5, but only because we got some buyback. We’re still gonna need Kansas.”
• Florida at Tennessee, 7 p.m. ET: As Shelton noted above, MGM books took a six-figure wager on the Volunteers. That helped take Tennessee from +5 to +4.
• Arizona at Oregon State, 4 p.m. ET: MGM books opened the Wildcats -7, dipped to 6, then got back to 7. “We got a significant wager on Arizona,” Shelton said.
Patrick Everson
Star running back Bryce Love took last week off to recover from an undisclosed injury, but he'll be back for Stanford tonight at Oregon, and bettors have moved the Cardinal to 2.5-point road chalk.
Week 4 of the college football season has plenty of intriguing games for bettors, even if only two contests pit top-25 foes against each other. We check in on the action and odds movement for several Saturday matchups, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook; Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US; and Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Vegas Strip.
No. 7 Stanford Cardinal at No. 19 Oregon Ducks – Open: +1; Move: +1.5; Move: +2; Move: +2.5
Stanford gave Heisman Trophy prospect Bryce Love a breather last week as he recuperated from an undisclosed injury, but he’ll be in the lineup for this 8 p.m. ET Pac-12 clash. The Cardinal (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) certainly didn’t need Love against UC Davis, winning 30-10 as a 31-point home favorite.
Oregon is still looking to cash for the first time this season, but has an unblemished on-the-field record. The Ducks (3-0 SU, 0-3 ATS) have had three cakewalk opponents, including San Jose State last week, when they won 35-22 as a massive 42.5-point faves.
“I’ve seen sharp money on Stanford, and it’s pushed that number up from -1 to -2.5,” Murray said of activity at the Superbook.
William Hill US, with more than 100 shops across Nevada and a pair of books in New Jersey, also opened Stanford -1 and moved to -2.5.
“We’ll definitely need Oregon,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ve got lots of Northern Nevada money on Stanford.”
No. 17 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns – Open: +3; Move: None
Texas Christian looks to bounce back in this Big 12 battle at 4:30 p.m. ET, after giving Ohio State a pretty good test in Week 3. The Horned Frogs (2-1 SU and ATS) actually led well into the third quarter, but couldn’t make it stand in a 40-28 setback as a 12.5-point pup at AT&T Stadium.
Texas has a pair of wins since its season-opening loss to Maryland at FedExField. The Longhorns (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) had no trouble with Southern California last week, rolling 37-14 as a 3-point home chalk.
“All the money is for TCU,” Bogdanovich said. “We haven’t moved off 3, but we definitely need Texas.”
The Superbook moved off 3 early in the week, to 3.5, but only for a few hours.
“I’ve seen sharp play on both sides of this, but I trust the group on Texas more,” Murray said. “We are still dealing it at TCU -3.”
No. 22 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -27; Move: -26; Move: -26.5; Move: -26
Defending national champion Alabama just mows down opponents and covers big spreads this season. In Week 3, the Crimson Tide (3-0 SU and ATS) boatraced Mississippi 62-7 as a 22.5 point road favorite.
Texas A&M is facing its second top-five opponent in three weeks, with a big Week 2 rally against Clemson coming up just short in a 28-26 loss as a 12-point home pup. Last week, the Aggies (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) dumped Louisiana-Monroe 48-10 laying 12 points at home.
“We took a sharp bet on A&M +27. That’s a group I really respect on that that side,” Murray said of activity on the 3:30 p.m. ET tilt. “But I’m sure we will still need the Aggies in a big way.”
William Hill US opened ‘Bama -26 and reached 27 before peeling back to 26.5.
“Sharps are on the ‘dog, public on the favorite,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll probably need A&M, but I don’t think it’ll be a big decision.”
No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open: +7.5; Move: +7
Notre Dame has been in a trio of one-score-games and come out on top each time. The Fighting Irish (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) went off as 14-point home faves against Vanderbilt and held on for a 22-17 victory last weekend.
Wake Forest got out of the gate 2-0 SU, but couldn’t keep it going in Week 3 against a significant step up in competition. The Demon Deacons (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) led Boston College at times, but fell 41-34 as 6.5-point home pups.
“It’s pretty good two-way action,” Shelton said of wagering at The Mirage and other MGM books. “We had some sharp play on Wake Forest on Friday – a sharp player took Wake on the moneyline, and we also had sharp money at +7 flat, so now were at Notre Dame -7 (even).”
At William Hill US, the Irish opened -8.5 and were down to 7 by Thursday night for this noon ET kickoff.
“Sharps are definitely on Wake,” Bogdanovich said.
No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers – Open: +13.5; Move: +14; Move: +15; Move: +14.5; Move: +14; Move: +14.5; Move: +13.5; Move: +14; Move: +14.5
Georgia has gone beyond 40 points in all three of its outings so far, cashing in the last two, including a 41-17 road rout of South Carolina giving 8.5 points in Week 2. Last week, the Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) dropped Middle Tennessee 49-7 as a hefty 34.5-point chalk.
Missouri is also off to a 3-0 SU start (2-1 ATS), cashing in easy victories over Tennessee-Martin and Wyoming in Weeks 1 and 2, before a much tougher Week 3 challenge. The Tigers were laying 5 points at Purdue and got a field goal as time expired to squeak out a 40-37 win.
“We’ve got big bettors on opposite sides of this game,” Shelton said. “One bettor came in from out of town and played low six figures on Georgia, and also on Tennessee (vs. Florida). And a high-end player we respect played a similar amount on Missouri early in the week.”
At William Hill US, the number has bounced between 14 and 14.5, sticking at the higher number the past three days for a noon ET contest.
“It’s all Georgia, and 95 percent public money,” Bogdanovich said. “That’ll be a big decision.”
In other noteworthy games on the Saturday docket:
• Pittsburgh at North Carolina, 12:20 p.m. ET: The Panthers opened -4 and were down to -3 by Thursday, when things began to balance out. “We’re dead even to it, but sharps are on the ‘dog,” Bogdanovich said.
• Kansas at Baylor, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Bears opened -7.5, reached 8.5, then went back to 7.5. “We got a sizable six-figure wager on Baylor,” Shelton said. “We’re at 7.5, but only because we got some buyback. We’re still gonna need Kansas.”
• Florida at Tennessee, 7 p.m. ET: As Shelton noted above, MGM books took a six-figure wager on the Volunteers. That helped take Tennessee from +5 to +4.
• Arizona at Oregon State, 4 p.m. ET: MGM books opened the Wildcats -7, dipped to 6, then got back to 7. “We got a significant wager on Arizona,” Shelton said.
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