NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thur. Sep. 13 - Mon. Sep. 17)

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 11-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since Oct 05, 2014 on the road coming off a win where they did not commit a turnover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 0-11 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since Nov 22, 2009 as a home favorite coming off a road loss where they failed to cover.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-10.4 ppg) since Dec 28, 2015 coming off a game where Emmanuel Sanders had at least seven receptions.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Winless teams which are at least 7.5 point home dogs are 45-29-1 OU. Active on Cleveland.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 11-0-1 OU (10.2 ppg) since Nov 17, 2002 as a dog of more than a TD coming off a game where the failed to cover by at least a touchdown.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-10-2 OU (-8.9 ppg) since Dec 13, 2015 coming off a win where they allowed at least 22 first downs.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Saints are 0-13 ATS (-12.31 ppg) as a home favorite over a winless opponent after week one and they are not laying two TDs or more.

[Udog]

Public bettors like Saints' odds in NFL Week 2; sportsbooks rooting for Browns to cover
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints laid a huge egg at home in Week 1, losing outright to Tampa Bay as 10-point chalk. But public bettors are on New Orleans in Week 2, for a home tilt against Cleveland.

Week 2 of the NFL season brings with it a 14-game Sunday slate, with some intrigue on both sides of the betting counter. We check in on the action and line movement for a quartet of contests, with insights from Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints – Open: -8.5; Move: -9

New Orleans suffered a stunning season-opening loss, for which pretty much every sportsbook in business was grateful. The Saints went off as 10-point home favorites against Tampa Bay – which was minus the suspended Jameis Winston, instead starting Ryan Fitzpatrick – and lost outright in a shootout, 48-40.

Cleveland knows all about losing outright, going 0-16 SU last year and having not won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. But the Browns got pretty close in Week 1, with a late touchdown to force overtime in what ended up a 21-21 tie with Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point home underdog.

However, bettors were hardly swayed by Cleveland’s near win.

“We need the Browns big time,” Stoneback said, noting that while the line is 9, it could very well see 9.5 by the 1 p.m. ET kickoff. “It’s gonna be a big game for us. The pointspread money is 6/1 and the ticket count is 2/1 on New Orleans. The public is all over the Saints.”

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets – Open: -3; Move: -2.5

New York quarterback Sam Darnold threw a pick-six on his first NFL attempt, which sure seemed like a bad harbinger. But that was it in the turnover column for Darnold, and the Jets picked off Matthew Stafford four times and Matt Cassel once on the way to a stunning 48-17 beatdown of Detroit as a 7-point road ‘dog on Monday night.

Miami also got out of the Week 1 gate with a win and cover, in a game that took forever due to multiple weather delays. More than seven hours after the game started, the Dolphins completed a 27-20 home victory over Tennessee as a 1-point home pup.

“We need the Dolphins,” Stoneback said, noting that’s the case despite this line tightening a half-point, with the Jets at -2.5 (-120) for another 1 p.m. ET kick. “We took a large casino play on the Jets. The pointspread ticket count is about 4/1 on New York, and the money is about 3/1.”

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -5.5; Move: -6

After a strong finish last season behind new QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco certainly had some momentum, but not enough to overcome one of the league’s top defenses in Week 1. The 49ers lost to Minnesota 24-16 catching 6 points on the road, with Garoppolo throwing three picks and San Fran fumbling away the ball on a second-and-goal from the 1-yard line.

Not to be outdone, Detroit was even more turnover prone in its season opener. The Lions got out to a 7-0 lead over the Jets with a pick-six on the first throw of Sam Darnold’s NFL career, but Matthew Stafford followed with four interceptions, and Matt Patricia’s troops got boatraced 48-17 laying 7 points at home Monday night.

“We’ve taken some 49er money on Saturday,” Stoneback said, noting the move to San Fran -6 (-120) for this 4:05 p.m. ET start. “It’s a 4/1 pointspread ticket count, and the money is 5/1, so that’s a big decision for us. We’re gonna need the Lions.”
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: +3.5; Move: +3; Move: +3.5

Tampa Bay certainly turned some heads in Week 1, going off as a 10-point road ‘dog and winning outright. The Buccaneers were without suspended QB Jameis Winston, but longtime NFL QB Ryan Fitzpatrick had an outstanding outing, throwing for 417 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-40 victory.

Philadelphia didn’t light up the scoreboard anywhere near that level, nor the level achieved in winning the Super Bowl last season. But the Eagles scored just enough, netting a late touchdown to top Atlanta 18-12 in the Thursday night kickoff to the 2018-19 campaign.

“We took some money on the Bucs on Saturday, so we’re at +3.5 (-120),” Stoneback said of action on this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “We need the Eagles a little bit, but I’m sure we’ll get balanced out in New Jersey.”

It’s a fair expectation, as the Borgata in Atlantic City – just an hour from Philadelphia – has attracted plenty of Eagles money since legal sports betting came online in New Jersey in June.

[Udog]

Philadelphia Eagles' quarterback Carson Wentz will not play in Week 2, but is expected to be cleared for contact in practice this week.
The Eagles host the Colts in Week 3, travel to the Titans in Week 4, before hosting the Vikings in Week 5.


Aaron Rodgers WILL START at quarterback for the Green Bay Packers this afternoon at home vs. the Minnesota Vikings.
Current Spread: Packers +3
Current Total: 44.5

[Udog]

The Tennessee Titans will be without left tackle Taylor Lewan, right tackle Jack Conklin, and backup right tackle Dennis Kelly today vs. the Houston Texans.
Current Spread: Texans -3.5 Current Total: 41

[Udog]

The Houston Texans will be without pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney this afternoon @ the Titans.
Current Spread: Texans -3.5 Current Total: 41.5

[Udog]

MNF - Seahawks at Bears
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Seahawks (0-1 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) entered the season opener by losing six consecutive road games in September as Seattle visited Denver. In spite of a grabbing a fourth quarter lead on a Russell Wilson 51-yard touchdown connection with Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks fell short in a 27-24 defeat to the Broncos. Seattle’s defense intercepted Case Keenum three times, but the Broncos outgained the Seahawks from a yardage standpoint, 470-306, while racking up 25 first downs compared to 13 by Seattle.

Seattle also committed three turnovers in the loss as Wilson was picked off twice, while running back Chris Carson lost a fumble in the third quarter. The second Wilson interception came on the final drive deep in Seattle territory, but the Seahawks’ quarterback also threw three touchdown passes, including one to former Broncos’ standout Brandon Marshall. The game sailed OVER the total of 42 ½, while Seattle pushed as a three-point underdog as the Seahawks last won a game in Week 16 of last season following an 0-4 preseason.

The Bears (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) were on their way to an impressive road upset of the Packers last Sunday night by jumping out to a seemingly commanding 20-0 lead at Lambeau Field. It helped Chicago’s cause that Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers exited the game in the second quarter with a knee injury as newly acquired linebacker Khalil Mack returned an interception for a touchdown.

However, Rodgers returned in the third quarter and led Green Bay to an incredible 24-23 comeback victory, capped off by a 75-yard touchdown strike to Randall Cobb late in the fourth quarter. The Bears managed a cover as seven-point underdogs, but left Green Bay with a division loss as quarterback Mitchell Trubisky threw for 171 yards and rushed for a touchdown. Chicago has dropped 10 straight division contests dating back to December 2016, while last winning a road game against an NFC North opponent in 2015 at Green Bay.

SEATTLE DUE?

The task for Pete Carroll’s team on Monday night is try to not only pick up their first win of the season, but also halt this seven-game road losing streak in September. The Seahawks started 0-2 on the road last season (and 0-2 overall), but managed to win five of their next six games away from CenturyLink Field, while going 8-4 overall before a late meltdown prevented Seattle from the postseason.

Since Carroll arrived in Seattle back in 2010, the Seahawks have gone 0-2 through two road games twice (2011 and 2015), while the Seahawks are riding an 0-4 ATS streak in the last four Week 2’s dating back to 2014.

LAY THE POINTS AND RUN

In Trubisky’s rookie season, the Bears covered in all four opportunities as a home underdog, including outright victories over the Steelers and Panthers. However, Chicago struggled when laying points by posting a 1-2 SU/ATS record with the only victory coming against the winless Browns in Week 16. Dating back to the start of 2015, the Bears own a dreadful 1-7 SU/ATS mark as a favorite, including six outright losses at Soldier Field.

SERIES HISTORY

These two teams are meeting for the first time since 2015 when the Seahawks crushed the Bears, 26-0 as 16 ½-point favorites at CenturyLink Field. Seattle had started the season 0-2 before picking up that shutout, while limiting Chicago to 146 yards of offense. Wilson hooked up with Jimmy Graham for the only offensive touchdown, while Lockett returned the second half kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown.

Seattle has captured four of the past five matchups with Chicago since 2010, while making its first trip to Soldier Field since 2012. The Seahawks held off the Bears in overtime, 23-17 as three-point underdogs in December 2012, as the last four meetings in Chicago have sailed OVER the total.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Seahawks have appeared on Monday night football once in each of the past seven seasons. Seattle has compiled a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark in this stretch, while making its first road appearance on a Monday night since 2014 in a 10-point victory at Washington.

The Bears have split their last six Monday night contests since 2014, but interestingly enough have gone 1-3 at home in this stretch. Chicago was squeezed by Minnesota in the final seconds last season, 20-17 at Soldier Field in Trubisky’s first start, but the Bears barely covered as 3 ½-point underdogs.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on Seattle’s performance at Denver, “There were some positives for a Seahawks team with perhaps the most grounded expectations entering Carroll’s ninth season. Earl Thomas returned in time for the game and made an impact with an interception as a veteran leader on a defense that has lost many key players the past two years. Wilson nearly willed Seattle to a win by himself as the Seahawks had three late possessions down three late in the game and lost by just three despite running 17 fewer offensive plays.”

On the flip side, Nelson looks at Chicago’s late meltdown at Green Bay, “Trubisky took four sacks and gained just 4.9 yards per pass, but he had only one turnover and that was in a desperation fourth down play at the end of the game. The running game produced 5.1 yards per carry as the offense could be improved for Chicago after scoring just 16.5 points per game last season as Matt Nagy’s offensive background could pay dividends over time now in his second game as head coach.”

LINE MOVEMENT

This line stayed pretty steady through most of the week since the Bears opened up as three-point favorites last Sunday night. However, Chicago is currently a 4 ½-point favorite at most books, while other books that have the Bears at -5. The total opened at 43 ½, but has slightly moved to 43 at many outlets.

[Udog]

Sharp bettors might like underdog Chargers' odds in NFL Week 3 battle vs. Rams
Patrick Everson

Coach Sean McVay and star players Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams at 2-0 SU and ATS, but the wiseguys might like the Chargers getting 7 points in a battle for L.A. bragging rights.

Week 3 of the NFL season features a battle for Los Angeles, between two teams that just three years ago were not even located in L.A. We check in on the opening line and early action for that tilt and three more, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

The Rams were a surprise winner of the NFC West last season, and they’re off to a solid start this season, as well. Sean McVay’s troops moved to 2-0 SU and ATS by plowing past Arizona 34-0 as a hefty 13.5-point favorite Sunday.

The Chargers (1-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t keep up with Kansas City’s explosive offense in Week 1, but found a perfect bounceback opponent in Week 2. Anthony Lynn’s squad traveled to Buffalo and nabbed a 31-20 victory as a 7.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We wanted to open this line a little high, as we know the public will be all over the Rams, who haven’t given up a point since the first half of the Oakland game in Week 1,” Murray said Sunday night. “We have frequently seen the sharps back the Chargers as road ‘dogs over the last few seasons, and I won’t be surprised if we see that again in this game. The Chargers may not have missed Joey Bosa against hapless Buffalo, but I’m sure they will wish he was in the lineup next week.”
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+7)

Bill Belichick gets to face one of his longtime assistants in Matt Patricia, and New England is smarting after a road loss to Jacksonville on Sunday. The Patriots (1-1 SU and ATS) trailed 21-3 at halftime and never got within single digits in a 31-20 setback as a 2-point fave.

Patricia’s first game as a head coach was a nightmare, as Detroit got blown out at home by the Jets on “Monday Night Football.” The Lions (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) put up a better fight in Week 2, rallying from a 30-13 fourth-quarter deficit and coming up just short in a 30-27 loss to San Francisco as a 6-point road pup.

“I’ll be interested to see where this game closes,” Murray said. “We wanted to open it on the high side, because we know that there will be a lot of moneyline parlays and teasers tied to the Patriots in the Sunday night spot.”

Early bettors seemed to like those points with the Lions, as the line dipped to 6.5.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

New Orleans hasn’t looked very good through two weeks, splitting two games SU as a sizable favorite, while failing to cover both times. On Sunday, the Saints went off as 10-point home faves against Cleveland and snuck out with a 21-18 victory.

Atlanta had a sluggish offensive performance in Week 1 at Philadelphia, but found its form in Week 2. The Falcons (1-1 SU and ATS) beat Carolina 31-24 laying 5.5 points at home Sunday.

“The Saints could easily be 0-2 right now, if not for the errors from Cleveland’s kicking game,” Murray said. “Atlanta is coming off a solid win against Carolina. We opened Falcons -3 (-110) and took some bets right away that pushed our number to -3 (-120). Despite their rough start, I do expect to see some support for the Saints in this game, as well.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Cincinnati has been alarmingly consistent in the first two weeks, twice going off as 1-point chalk and twice winning and covering by the exact same score. In Week 2, the host Bengals bested Baltimore 34-23 in the Thursday nighter.

Carolina got out to a good start at Atlanta on Sunday, up 10-3 midway through the second quarter, but found itself down 24-10 a quarter later. The Panthers (1-1 SU and ATS) rallied but came up short in a 31-24 loss getting 5.5 points.

“The Bengals have been very impressive over the first two weeks and have three extra days to prepare for this game,” Murray said. “Carolina will have its hands full. Cincinnati has a lot of playmakers on offense all of a sudden, and appears to be a real threat in the AFC North.”

Still, early activity pushed the Panthers’ price up a dime, to -3 (-120).

[Udog]

Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Houston even (1,514)- L

2) NJ Giants +3 (933)- L

3) Pittsburgh -4 (910)- L

4) New England -1 (902)- L

5) Philadelphia -3.5 (808)- L

6) LA Chargers -7 (781)- W

Season record: 5-6-1

[Udog]

Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Chiefs 42, Steelers 37— Don’t think I’ve ever seen this before; Patrick Mahomes threw six TD passes in a game where his offense faced only five 3rd down plays the whole day. More TD passes than 3rd down plays? Doesn’t happen much.

Chiefs led 21-0, it was 21-21 at the half; Pittsburgh scored 58 points in its first two games, but they didn’t win either one of them. And Le’Veon Bell has coughed away $1,760,000 in just two weeks, because…….well, I don’t know why. Guess he doesn’t want to play.

Saints 21, Browns 18— Cleveland outgained Saints by 52 yards, but Browns’ kicker missed two FG’s, two PAT’s, including one with 1:16 left that would’ve given the Browns a 19-18 lead. Don’t scrimp when it comes to paying kickers; they decide who wins close games. Gregg Williams’ defense held Saints to 5.6 yards/play, but it wasn’t good enough.

Vikings 29, Packers 29 OT— Two weeks, two ties; not sure I can remember a kicker missing two FG’s in same OT period, but Vikings’ rookie Carlson was 0-3 in this game, 0-2 in OT. Why do contending teams have rookie kickers?!?!?!?!

Green Bay scored only one offensive TD, tried six FG’s; they scored a TD on a blocked punt on Minnesota’s first series. Total yardage here was 480-351 Vikings, but they didn’t win.

Titans 20, Texans 17— A gentleman in Las Vegas wagered $100,000 on the Texans in this game; imagine having the onions to bet $100K on a team coached by Bill O’Brien?? Total yardage was 437-283 Houston, but Titans got the home win.

Tennessee led 14-0 early behind backup QB Gabbert and a TD pass off a fake punt, but Houston rallied to lead 17-14 early in 4th quarter, before Titans kicked FG’s on their last two drives to win the game.

Falcons 31, Panthers 24— Falcons have now won five of last six series games, with all five wins by 7+ points; Carolina lost its last four visits here. Atlanta is 13-2 vs spread in its last 15 home openers. Total yardage was 442-439, Atlanta averaged 9.7 yards/pass attempt. Cam Newton took a vicious shot to the head as he slid after a run; the tackler was ejected.

Rams 34, Cardinals 0— Arizona needs to play rookie QB Rosen now, because Sam Bradford isn’t competing; he dumps the ball off quick as hell so he won’t get hit. If Rosen isn’t ready, then play Mike Glennon, because the defense got depressed in this game. They know they have no shot.

Cardinals had five first downs, 137 total yards, and lost field position by 20 yards, in a game where Rams’ kicker Greg Zeurlein strained a groin muscle before the game. Punter Johnny Hekker kicker a FG and a PAT- Rams went for two the other times they scored.

Chargers 31, Bills 20— Buffalo trailed 26-0/28-6 at halftime of its two games, but at least now rookie QB Allen is getting needed experience that hopefully will pay off down the road (can you hear us, Arizona?). Chargers scored 59 points in splitting their first two games; they visit the Rams in the LA Coliseum next week.

Bills’ CB Vontae Davis abruptly retired at halftime of this game, saying in a statement that the reality had hit him: “I shouldn’t be out there anymore.”

Dolphins 20, Jets 12— First-place 2-0 Miami ran out to a 20-0 lead, won field position by 10 yards- two of their three TD drives were less than 50 yards- they held Jets to 42 rushing yards. Dolphins covered four of their last five road openers; under is 20-5 in their last 25 road openers.

NFL Network has Jets-Browns on this Thursday night; huge game for both teams. Winner will either be 2-1 or 1-1-1 after three weeks, a big improvement.

Buccaneers 27, Eagles 21— Ryan Fitzpatrick is 48-61 for 819 yards in two wins; Jameis Winston ain’t getting his job back after his suspension ends next week, at least not right away. Bucs had two drives of one play, 75 yards each- they averaged 11.2 yards/pass attempt.

49ers 30, Lions 27— Underdogs were 10-4 against spread Sunday, including this back-door cover by Detroit, which scored two TD’s in last 8:40 to beat the number.

Matthew Stafford threw 53 passes, Lions ran ball only 18 times; he may make $9M a year more than Tom Brady, but Stafford’s career record is 60-67, his playoff record is 0-3. Matt Patricia is learning the hard way that winning without Brady ain’t so easy.

Guess who the Lions play next week? Brady and the Patriots, on Sunday night.

Jaguars 31, Patriots 20— Jax’ville avenged their loss in LY’s AFC title game; they converted 10-14 on third down, held Gronkowski to two catches for 15 yards and overcame a -2 turnover ratio. Yardage was 481-302 Jaguars; people have to stop riding Blake Bortles, he’s winning lot of games lately.

Broncos 20, Raiders 19— Oakland led 12-0 at halftime, 19-7 with 3:00 left in third quarter, but Denver scored on all four second half possessions (two TD’s, two FG”s), kicking winning FG with 0:06 left, giving them two home wins, by total of four points. Raiders converted only 3 of 10 third down plays and fell to 0-2.

Colts 21, Redskins 9— Indy converted 9 of 16 on 3rd down, scored 21 points on three red zone drives. Redskins kicked FG’s on both their red zone drives, ran ball for only 65 yards- they were 5-15 on third down. Colts are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs NFC teams. Redskins have now lost six of their last seven home openers;

Cowboys 20, Giants 13— Dallas held rookie RB Barkley to 28 rushing yards, sacked immobile QB Manning six times, and won a game that took well under 3:00 to play, shortest NFL game I can remember in long time. Barkley did catch 14 passes for 80 yards; Beckham was held to four catches, 51 yards.