Announcement

**Udog** · 09-02-2018, 10:27 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 6

Atlanta @ Philadelphia

Game 451-452
September 6, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
143.294
Philadelphia
139.361
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 4
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3); Under

Sunday, September 9

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Game 453-454
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
129.902
Cleveland
127.832
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+6); Under

San Francisco @ Minnesota

Game 455-456
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
137.687
Minnesota
136.748
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
46
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+6); Over

Cincinnati @ Indianapolis

Game 457-458
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.229
Indianapolis
122.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+3); Over

Buffalo @ Baltimore

Game 459-460
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
122.985
Baltimore
137.492
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 14 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-7); Under

Jacksonville @ NY Giants

Game 461-462
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
136.232
NY Giants
124.735
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 11 1/2
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-3); Under

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 463-464
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
127.806
New Orleans
142.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 14 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 9 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-9 1/2); Over

Houston @ New England

Game 465-466
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
117.759
New England
141.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 23 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Over

Tennessee @ Miami

Game 467-468
September 9, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
125.925
Miami
129.438
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

Kansas City @ San Diego

Game 469-470
September 9, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.795
San Diego
134.631
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 3 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+3 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Denver

Game 471-472
September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
132.927
Denver
125.244
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+3); Over

Dallas @ Carolina

Game 473-474
September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.042
Carolina
133.257
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+3); Over

Washington @ Arizona

Game 475-476
September 9, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
127.693
Arizona
132.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
Pick
44
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
Under

Chicago @ Green Bay

Game 477-478
September 9, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
123.166
Green Bay
133.561
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-8); Under

Monday, September 10

NY Jets @ Detroit

Game 479-480
September 10, 2018 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
123.494
Detroit
133.680
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-6 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Oakland

Game 481-482
September 10, 2018 @ 10:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
134.776
Oakland
124.398
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 10 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-3); Over

**Udog** · 09-02-2018, 10:28 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (11 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (16 - 3) - 9/6/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (13 - 4) at CLEVELAND (0 - 16) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 105-77 ATS (+20.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 10) at MINNESOTA (14 - 4) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (7 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 12) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (9 - 8) at BALTIMORE (9 - 7) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (12 - 7) at NY GIANTS (3 - 13) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (5 - 11) at NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (4 - 12) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 4) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (10 - 8) at MIAMI (6 - 10) - 9/9/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 112-146 ATS (-48.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (10 - 7) at LA CHARGERS (9 - 7) - 9/9/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (9 - 7) at DENVER (5 - 11) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (9 - 7) at CAROLINA (11 - 6) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (7 - 9) at ARIZONA (8 - 8) - 9/9/2018, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (5 - 11) at GREEN BAY (7 - 9) - 9/9/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 108-78 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 187-133 ATS (+40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (5 - 11) at DETROIT (9 - 7) - 9/10/2018, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (11 - 6) at OAKLAND (6 - 10) - 9/10/2018, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-232 ATS (-71.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-97 ATS (-44.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) in September games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-105 ATS (-39.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-02-2018, 10:28 PM

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 6

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing Philadelphia
Atlanta is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Sunday, September 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New Orleans's last 19 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
San Francisco is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Minnesota is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games at home
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing at home against San Francisco

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 7-11-3 ATS in its last 21 games on the road
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Baltimore's last 12 games
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Jacksonville is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants's last 12 games at home
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville

Houston Texans
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games when playing New England
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New England's last 15 games
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 13 games at home
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 10 games when playing Houston
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tennessee's last 18 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Dolphins
Miami is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Miami is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 11 games
Miami is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games at home
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Miami's last 18 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 13 games when playing at home against Tennessee

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Indianapolis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 11 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 13 games at home
Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cleveland is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games on the road
Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games at home
LA Chargers is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Washington Redskins
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Washington's last 20 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games
Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Arizona is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Arizona's last 20 games at home
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Arizona is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
Arizona is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games when playing Denver
Seattle is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games
Denver is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games at home
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing Seattle
Denver is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Seattle
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing at home against Seattle

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Carolina is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chicago
Green Bay is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago

Monday, September 10

New York Jets
NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
NY Jets is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Lions
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games
LA Rams is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing Oakland
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-03-2018, 10:43 AM

Trends to Watch - September
Marc Lawrence

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Off another sensational NFL Preseason Baltimore is an excellent home team this month at 30-17 ATS and have Buffalo (9/9) and Denver two weeks in the land of crab cakes.

You might think Buffalo's best home month is December, but it's not. They are strong in September at 34-22 ATS but only have one homer, against the L.A. Chargers on Sept. 16th.

Detroit is a solid 30-19 ATS in the Motor City and has the Jets on the first Monday Night game of the season and Dallas on the third Sunday of the month (9/23). San Francisco is thought to be revitalized this season and is 28-17 ATS this month in their building, but they have a nasty opening slate and just the Lions (9/16) at home early.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona has three games in Glendale to start the season with the Redskins (9/9), Bears (9/23) and Seahawks (9/30) and we will find out right away if the oddsmaker 5.5 win total is correct.

Carolina will be tested right off the bat with it's poor 16-24 home spread record, with Dallas there on Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3. Speaking of the Bengals, the days of "The Jungle" are long gone with a 17-29 ATS record. And it might not improve with Baltimore in Cincy for the second Thursday night affair.

After playing in Arizona in their season lid-lifter, Washington hosts Indianapolis and Green Bay the next weeks trying to better 18-31 ATS home mark.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): For the first three months of the season, Dallas is an exceptional away club and that starts with a 33-18 ATS mark in September. Given their past, going to Carolina (9/9) or Seattle two weeks later would not imposing for the Cowboys.

Denver is none too shabby either at 28-18 ATS and they get tested only once, at Baltimore on the 23rd. Fellow AFC West partner Kansas City also fits this quality profile at 34-19 ATS. One concern for the Chiefs starting the season is at the Chargers and at the Steelers for first-time starter Patrick Mahomes.

Bad: It's been a while since the Rams were this good after last season. They are a horrific 16-32 ATS in the road whites and they play the late game in Oakland on MNF, before a three-game homestand.

Keep an eye on (Bad): New coach, new system, but same old results for Chicago away from the Windy City? The Bears are 19-29 ATS on the road and go to the not so frozen tundra at Lambeau Field on the 9th and to the red-hot Arizona desert on the 23rd.

As good as Detroit is at home, that's basically home bad they are on the road at 19-31 ATS. At San Fran on a short week in Week 2 won't be easy and likely or will a trip to Big D on the 30th.

Most years, Pittsburgh labors early and is an unsightly 17-31 ATS on the road. They are often not covering as away favorites and let's see how they do in that role at Cleveland in Week 1 and on the third week of MNF at Tampa Bay.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): Seattle is 31-20 ATS, but they are in transition. There is a chance they might not be a favorite all month, but chances are they will be at least once against @Chicago (9/17), Dallas (9/23) and @Arizona (9/30).

Bad: For years, the Rams, no matter where they were from, they were a brutal favorite. Their record of 12-30 ATS record explains that, but things could be changing. This L.A. bunch has the young loaded roster and is expected to be favored in all four of their games this month. Nonetheless, paying attention to history still matters.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Sportsbooks are calling for Arizona to be last in their division, but because of three home games this month, they will be favored at least twice. That might not be good since the Cardinals are only 11-20 ATS, facing Washington (9/9) and Chicago (9/23)

At 12-23 ATS when handing out points, Carolina is not a pretty play. The Panthers will give points to Dallas in Week 1 and Cincinnati in Week 3, both at home.

Chicago has a similar record to Carolina at 14-23 ATS and will catch Tampa Bay in Week 4 as a fave. Da Bears might be a very small favorite in Week 2 in the Windy City against Seattle, but the prior week's results will determine that.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Dallas has been a sharp 27-11 ATS in this role they will be around a three-point pooch at Carolina to start the season. The early line had the Cowboys catching points in Seattle (9/23) but that could change.

Keep an eye on (Good): Kansas City is a nice 29-18 ATS as a September dog and as we start the month, they are receiving digits in two away games at the Chargers (9/9), and Pittsburgh (9/16).

The Vikings ship also travels well as underdogs at 27-18 ATS and they will be in Green Bay (9/16) and at the Rams on the last Thursday of the month.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): The Chiefs have been well prepared for AFC West action to begin the season with a 24-13 ATS mark. Good chance to improve in Game 1 against the Bolts in L.A.

Bad: It's Gruden 2.0 in Oakland and at 11-22 ATS versus division competitors, Week 2 at Denver might not be good.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Chicago is 18-27 ATS this month in the NFC North and it could get worse with a trip to Green Bay on Sunday Night football.

**Udog** · 09-07-2018, 12:34 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Steelers @ Browns— Since re-joining the NFL in 1999, Browns started season 0-1 18 out of 19 years; they’re 3-12 vs spread in last 15 Week 1 home games. Steelers won their last six games with Cleveland, taking last three by 3-3-4 points- they won four of last six meetings here, with three of four wins by 16+ points. Since 2015, Pitt is 14-9 vs spread as a road favorite- under is 23-7-1 in their last 31 road games. Browns are 4-15-1 vs spread in last 20 games as home underdogs; under is 12-3 in their last 15 home games. Pitt lost five of last seven road openers; they’re 2-8-1 vs spread in last 11. Steelers had a special teams TD in both series games LY. Haley is Cleveland’s new OC; he had same job for Steelers the last six years.

49ers @ Vikings— Minnesota’s OL coach Sparano died unexpectedly this summer; the OL also has injury issues now. Home side won 11 of last 12 series games; 49ers lost last five games in the Twin Cities, with three losses by 11+ points. Vikings are 5-2 in last seven series games; four of last five series totals were 37 or less. Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 18-5-1 as home favorites; under is 19-13 in their home games the last four years. 49ers were 5-2 as road underdogs LY in Shanahan’s first season, after being 7-13-1 from ’13-’16. Over is 15-9 in SF road games the last three years. Minnesota won/covered its last three home openers. Cousins will be Minnesota’s 11th different #1 QB the last 15 years, 4th in last four years.

Bengals @ Colts— Home side won last eight series games; Bengals lost their last eight visits here, with last visit a ’14 playoff game- their last win here was in ’97. Since 2012, Cincy is 17-12-2 as a road underdog; under is 21-11 in their last 32 road games. Colts are 12-9-1 in last 22 games as home favorites; under is 17-7 in their last 24 home games. Bengals open on road for 8th time in last nine years; over is 8-1 in their last nine road openers. Colts lost their last four home openers, three by 4 or fewer points. Indy started season 0-1 seven of last eight years- they’re 1-9 vs spread in Week 1 the last ten years. Luck’s return at QB is a huge boost for the Colts.

Bills @ Ravens— Peterman is Buffalo’s starting QB here; he was 1-1 in two starts LY, throwing five INT’s in a half in a horrific 54-24 loss to the Chargers, then beating Colts 13-7 in a December home game. Home side won last six series games; last four were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Bills lost last four visits here, by 14-12-3-6 points. Since ’12, Ravens are 16-22-1 vs spread as home favorites; under is 19-13-1 in their last 33 road games. Since ’14, Buffalo 14-9-1 as road underdogs; under is 19-13 in their road games. Ravens won 11 of last 13 home openers; under is 4-1 in last five of those. Bills made playoffs LY for first time in 19 years, but QB Taylor is gone; top draft pick Josh Allen is Peterman’s backup.

Jaguars @ Giants— Last five years, Jags are 3-17 vs spread when playing an NFC team. Home side won all six series games; Jaguars are 0-3 vs Giants here, losing by 3-7-4 points- they’re 3-6 vs Jets in Garden State, so 3-9 overall in the Swamp. This will be first time in six years Big Blue opens the season at home; Giants lost five of their last six home openers (0-6 vs spread); five of those six games stayed under. Since ’15, Big Blue is 7-4 vs spread as home underdogs; under is 10-6 in their home games the last two years. Since ’12, Jaguars are 2-3 as road favorites; over is 28-20 in their road games the last six years. Giants are one of four NFL teams (Bills, Dallas, Panthers) whose backup QB’s have zero NFL starts.

Buccaneers @ Saints— No Jameis Winston (suspended) for Bucs; Fitzpatrick (48-70-1 as NFL starter) gets the nod at QB- Tulane alum Griffin is his backup. Saints are 10-3 in last 13 series games, but last six were split. Bucs lost six of last seven visits to Big Easy, with four of six losses by 11+ points. Under Koetter, Tampa Bay is 7-6-1 as road underdogs; since 2011, over is 29-26-2 in their road games. Since ’14, NO is 10-15-1 as a home favorite; over is 21-11 in their home games last four years. Saints lost their last three home openers; they started last four seasons 0-1. Saints scored special teams TD in both meetings vs Tampa Bay LY. Last five years, Bucs are 7-13-1 vs spread on artificial turf.

Texans @ Patriots— Last 15 years, Super Bowl loser is 2-13 vs spread in their first game the following season, 2-10 when favored. Patriots are 14-2 SU in last 16 home openers, but just 1-5 vs spread in last six. Houston is 0-6 in Foxboro, with five of six losses by 13+ points; they’re 1-9 overall vs Patriots, losing last seven- they lost 36-33 here LY. Texans are 11-15-1 in last 27 games as road underdogs; under is 9-6-1 in their road games last two years. Since ’13, Patriots are 23-10-3 as home favorites; Over is 41-23 in their home games the last eight years. Texans open on road for only 2nd time in last 10 years; they won seven of last nine road openers. Under is 5-2 in their last seven season openers. Over was 5-1 in QB Watson’s six starts last year.

Titans @ Dolphins— Tennessee made playoffs LY for first time in nine years, won a playoff game, then fired the head coach; not sure why. Teams split last six meetings; Titans won two of last three visits here. LY, Miami beat Tennessee 16-10 here, in game where neither team gained 200 total yards. Since 2012, Dolphins are 12-7-2 vs spread as home underdogs; over is 11-4 in their last 15 home games. Since ’14, Tennessee is 2-5-1 as a road favorite; over is 14-10 in their road games the last three years. Titans are 9-2 vs spread in last 11 road openers; under is 16-5 in their last 21 road openers. Tannehill is back at QB for Miami, after missing all of LY; his record as a starting QB is 37-40.

Chiefs @ Chargers— 2nd career start for KC’s new QB Mahomes; he won the first one in Denver last December. Chiefs won last eight series games, with three of four wins in Golden State by 10+ points. Chiefs are 12-9 as road underdogs under Reid; over is 13-9-1 in their road games last three years. Since ’11, Chargers are 15-21 as home favorites; under was 6-2 in their home games LY, their first year playing home games in Carson. KC is on road three of first four weeks this season, with a QB who has started one NFL game- they won that game 27-24. Bolts covered five of their last six home openers; over is 12-3 in their last 15. Last three years, KC was a combined +45 in turnover margin; with Alex Smith gone, can they maintain that?

Seahawks @ Broncos— Seattle won three of last four series games, but lost seven of last eight visits here; since 2011, Seahawks are 13-8-6 vs spread as road underdogs. Under is 15-9 in their road games last three years. Since ’15, Broncos are 5-9-2 vs spread as home favorites; under is 12-10-1 in their last 23 home games. Denver opens at home for 8th year in row; they’re 26-3 SU in last 29 home openers, 6-3 vs spread in last nine. Seahawks open on road for 6th time in last eight years; they lost their first road game 10 of last 11 years; they’re 1-12 vs spread in last 13 road openers. Last couple years, Seahawks are 2-6-1 vs spread on natural grass.

Cowboys @ Panthers— Norv Turner coaching Cam Newton’s offense will be fascinating. Home side lost five of last six series games; Dallas is 9-4 overall vs Carolina, 5-2 in Charlotte- both losses were playoff games. Under Garrett, Dallas is 21-14 as a road underdog; under is 17-6 in their last 23 road games. Last two years, Carolina is 5-8 as a home favorite; under is 23-16-1 in their last 40 home games. Panthers open at home for only 2nd time in last seven years; they’re 0-5 last five times they started season at home. Carolina’s last Week 1 home win was in 2003. Dallas covered nine of last 11 road openers. Cowboys have some injury issues on OL and a rookie kicker. Panthers’ T Kalil is out for first weeks of season.

Redskins @ Cardinals— Both teams have new QB; Arizona has new coach, too- he was with the Panthers for six years, was DC last year. Redskins’ QB Smith is 88-62-1 as an NFL starter, injury-prone Bradford is 34-45-1- he played only two games LY for Minnesota. Home side won last six series games; Redskins are 9-2 in last 11 games vs Arizona, but lost 30-20/31-23 in last two visits here- they beat Redbirds 20-15 (-4) at home LY. Last three years, Arizona is 10-13-1 vs spread at home; under is 19-12-1 in their last 32 home games. Under Gruden, Redskins are 16-16 vs spread on road; over is 17-7 in their last 24 road games.

Bears @ Packers— Green Bay is 14-2 in last 16 games in this ancient rivalry, winning last four by 16-3-17-7 points, but Bears split last four visits to Lambeau. Last two years, Bears are 4-10-1 as road underdogs- under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 road games. Since ’14, Packers are 17-8-2 as a home favorite; under is 15-9 in their last 24 home games. Chicago opens on road for only 2nd time in last nine years; they’re 2-5 in last seven road openers. Under is 12-2 in their last 14 road openers. Packers won 10 of their last 11 home openers. Chicago’s new OC is former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich, who has zero NFL experience; DC Fangio has been in Chicago since 2015, so he is familiar with Green Bay.

Monday
Jets @ Lions— Rookie QB Darnold becomes youngest QB in last 48 years to start in Week 1. Detroit coach Patricia should be familiar with Jet offense from his days coaching Patriots’ defense. Jets are 6-7 vs Detroit, but won three of last four meetings; they’re 4-3 in Motor City, winning last visit here in OT. Since 2014, Detroit is 14-5-2 as home favorites; under is 29-19 in their home games last six years. Under Bowles, Jets are 3-8-3 as road underdogs; under is 15-8 in their last 23 road games. Lions won five of their last seven home openers; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Detroit started season 1-0 six of last seven years. Jets are 15-6 vs spread in last 21 road openers. Patricia is a defensive coach; will Lions try to run ball more, to protect the defense?

Rams @ Raiders— Gruden returns to sidelines after 10 years away. Raiders are 8-5 against the Rams, but lost last meeting 52-0 in St Louis— lot has changed for both sides since. Rams are 2-5 in series road games. Since 2012, Oakland is 10-16-1 as a home underdog- under is 22-9 in their last 31 home games. Rams are 7-5 vs spread as favorites LY, 4-2 on road; over was 7-1 in their road games LY. Raiders lost four of last six home openers, last four of which went over the total. Rams are 2-14 in last 16 road openers, 3-15 vs spread in last 18- they did win their road opener LY. Goff’s dad played for the SF Giants; this is a homecoming for him. Rams signed star DT Donald; Raiders traded their holdout star DE Mack to the Bears.

**Udog** · 09-08-2018, 08:43 PM

Top 6 picks in the Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest

Top 6 picks in the 3,123 entries

1) Bengals +3 (1,218 picked them)

2) Rams -4 (1,052)

3) Ravens -7.5 (907)

4) Vikings -6.5 (854)

5) Texans +6.5 (848)

6) Broncos -3 (807)

**Udog** · 09-08-2018, 09:04 PM

Essentials - Week 1
Tony Mejia

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Cleveland has won two of the last 43 games, failing to come out ahead in 17 straight contests. The Browns were actually favored once last year and were an underdog of only three points or fewer three other times, but this number is still lower than one would normally expect. Is there a “Hard Knocks” influence in this line? Cleveland has been favored in all four preseason games, winning three outright. Top pick Baker Mayfield will sit behind Tyrod Taylor, who will have Josh Gordon at his disposal. The talented receiver won’t start but should factor in substantially behind Jarvis Landry and rookie Antonio Callaway. Coming off a well-publicized suspension, he’s overcome a hamstring issue that kept him from practicing much this preseason. Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb should make for a formidable running back tandem, so we’ll see if Todd Haley can secure immediate dividends as offensive coordinator of his new group against a defense he faced daily in practice for the last six seasons.

The Pittsburgh offense will have to solve a defense that has looked fantastic under Gregg Williams, who has no problem blitzing teams in the preseason when others take a more vanilla approach. Former No. 1 pick Myles Garrett has looked tremendous and others have had an excellent run leading up to this season opener, but it remains to be seen what effect cutting LB Mychal Kendricks will have after he was charged with insider training. The Steelers will be without Le’Veon Bell, who hadn’t reported to the team as of Friday due to a contract dispute. James Conner, a second-year back out of Pitt who ran for just 144 yards as a rookie will start in Bell’s place. Antonio Brown will be out there as Ben Roethlisberger’s top target despite dealing with a quad issue while veteran guard Ramon Foster has also been upgraded to probable after dealing with a knee injury. After calling out Bell, the offensive line is expected to try and ball out for Conner, so we’ll see how they fare against an improved Cleveland pass rush. The Browns haven’t won a season opener since 2004 and are 3-14 against the number in the last 17 meetings against the Steelers in Cleveland and are 1-9 straight up in their last 10, part of a run that has seen them prevail in only four of 35 encounters with their AFC North rival since 2001. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has won its last 10 divisional games.

San Francisco at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo won all five of his starts last season but faces his biggest test with one of the NFL’s top defenses getting the past month-plus to prepare for him with plenty of tape to study. We’ll see what tendencies the Vikings can identify and potentially exploit and will have CB Xavier Rhodes (hamstring) in the mix and rookie Mike Hughes in a heightened role since Mackensie Alexander is listed as doubtful. The Vikes won’t have to deal with former teammate Jerick McKinnon, who signed on in the offseason but tore his ACL, leaving all the carries to veteran Alfred Morris and second-year back Matt Breida.

Minnesota upgraded its quarterback by handing Kirk Cousins a massive contract and also welcomes Dalvin Cook back from injury, so we’ll see how the offense takes shape. Adam Thielen has been cleared after rolling his left ankle last week, so the major question mark for the Vikings’ offense comes up front since center Pat Eflein has been ruled out and Nick Easton was lost for the season with a neck injury. Brett Jones will start. The 49ers will be without top linebacker Reuben Foster, who is serving a two-game suspension. Arik Armstead will be out there despite a hamstring issue and will be out there trying to wreak havoc along the defensive line with fellow first-round picks Solomon Thomas and DeForest Buckner. San Francisco has lost its last five games in Minnesota. The Vikings have won their last six home games and are 13-4 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: After squaring off in the preseason finale, these neighbors kick off the season with Andrew Luck’s return taking center stage. After missing all of 2017, he will face an aggressive defense that will be missing their leader with Vontaze Burfict suspended for the first four games. Luck participated in the preseason but the Colts put very little on display and will be working with a young offensive line that requires No. 6 pick Quenton Nelson to perform well immediately. The run game is also a question mark with mainstay Frank Gore gone and Marlon Mack questionable with a hamstring issue. Tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring) should play but Denzelle Good won’t, so conditions aren’t exactly ideal for Luck to feel like he’ll be protected in his first regular-season game in 20 months.

The Bengals have a new defensive coordinator in the very competent Teryl Austin, but this group has seen their level diminish without Burfict in the past. We’ll see how Austin compensates. Andy Dalton will start his eighth consecutive season opener for Cincy and will again have A.J. Green, but the passing game finally gets deep threat John Ross out there after he missed most of his rookie season with knee and shoulder issues after fumbling on his first snap. Tight end Tyler Eifert has also returned from a back issue, so we’ll see the offense at full strength in Bill Lazor’s second season as the coordinator. Indianapolis has won eight of 11 against the Bengals.

Buffalo at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: A.J. McCarron was traded and Josh Allen was beaten out for the starting gig by Nathan Peterman, whose rookie season was marred by throwing interceptions every time he tried to get something accomplished. LeSean McCoy wasn’t suspended for his offseason drama and WR Kelvin Benjamin has had an entire preseason with his new team. New coordinator Brian Daboll will match wits with Don Martindale, the long-time linebackers coach who is taking over the defense from Dean Pees. He’ll have to make up for the absence of Jimmy Smith (suspension), but has a unit that returns almost everyone and actually stayed healthy throughout camp.

Lamar Jackson should debut in some capacity since the Ravens have been experimenting with packages that can take advantage of his speed and elusiveness. Joe Flacco took to the increased competition from the rookie first-round pick and Robert Griffin III and had his sharpest camp in years, developing chemistry with new receiving weapons Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead. Flacco’s 141.4 passer rating topped all NFL quarterbacks in the preseason. It’s expected to rain most of the weekend in the Baltimore area, so be sure to check the forecast before placing a wager here. Buffalo has dropped four straight at the Big Crabcake and has only won three of its last 11 road games.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: New York opened last season as a Super Bowl contender before Odell Beckham, Jr. was injured and the bottom fell out on the Ben McAdoo era. Pat Shurmur, who has run the offense for Minnesota and Philadelphia over the past few years, will team with Mike Shula to get the most out of an offense set to debut No. 2 pick Saquon Barkley at running back in order to take pressure off 15-year veteran Eli Manning. Barkley has been dealing with a hamstring issue and tight end Evan Engram has come through concussion protocol, but the Giants are still thin at tackle and may have issues blocking against one of the NFL’s top defenses. Beckham’s duel with standout Jags corner Jalen Ramsey will get the most attention, but there are other crititcal matchups that could decide this one.

New York must find a way to harass Blake Bortles into turnovers despite missing Olivier Vernon, who was expected to be a standout in a new look 3-4. Rookie Lorenzo Carter, a third-round pick out of Georgia, will be cast in a huge role as a result. The Jags will rely on a slimmer Leonard Fournette to try and slow down New York’s pass rush and will likely utilize a heavy dose of the ground game due to potential showers being part of the forecast. Jacksonville has gone 5-1 against the number in its last six games against the Giants but will need new receivers to step up against a secondary that on paper, appears to be the strength of the defense. We’ll see if young options like Dede Westbrook and rookie DJ Chark can rise up to keep the Jags from being one-dimensional.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: The week’s biggest favorite saw their advantage grow when final injury reports were released on Friday since it appears that top corner Brent Grimes will be unable to shake off a groin injury in order to play. With backup De’Vante Harris (hamstring) also doubtful, the Bucs will be thin and young at corner going on the road against a quarterback that doesn’t need help taking healthy secondaries apart. Rookies Carlton Davis and M.J. Stewart will play large roles and face a baptism by fire. First-round pick Vita Vea hasn’t played due to a calf injury, so the Bucs won’t have the No. 12 pick who they envisioned being disruptive. The Saints will be missing RB Mark Ingram to a four-game suspension but should have starting guard Andrus Peat (guard) in the mix up front to help block for Brees and open holes for Alvin Kamara.

With Jameis Winston suspended for the first three games of the season, it will be on Ryan Fitzpatrick to try to help Tampa Bay’s offense keep pace with the Saints. The 14-year veteran will lean on Mike Evans, who has a checkered history with corner Marshon Lattimore, so keep an eye on that matchup. The Bucs saw No. 38 pick Ronald Jones (USC) gain just 22 yards on 28 preseason carries, dampening enthusiasm over his addition and solidifying Peyton Barber as the starter. Tampa Bay has lost its last seven games as a road underdog but New Orleans have won only one of its last 10 September games. That includes an 0-4 record SU and ATS at home in the Superdome. The Saints have won 10 of 13 in this series since Nov. 2011.

Houston at New England, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Tom Brady vs. Deshaun Watson to start the season provides an awfully juicy matchup pairing the game’s top quarterback against one of the most promising young prospects and potential heirs to the throne. Last year’s contest produced a 36-33 The contrast in their styles adds to the entertainment value, especially since Brady will have to deal with a healthy J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney on the hunt as he tries to work. He may not have left tackle Marcus Cannon available to help keep his uniform clean, although the calf injury that kept him out this preseason has healed enough for him to participate in practices this week. Brady probably won’t have rookie RB Sony Michel in the mix but will otherwise have a loaded arsenal of weapons that includes new toys like Jeremy Hill and Cordarrelle Patterson in addition to Rob Gronkowski, James White, Rex Burkhead Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett. The Texans will have starting corner Kevin Johnson available after he cleared concussion protocol, but veteran Kayvon Webster, signed to a one-year deal to improve depth, isn’t ready to contribute yet. Safety Andre Hal and rookie corner Jermain Kelly are out.

Bill Belichick has Josh McDaniels back to run the offense after he reneged on Indianapolis’ head coaching job but will be breaking in a new defensive coordinator with Brian Flores running plays. Houston’s Bill O’Brien is expected to hold back little with Deshaun Watson at 100 percent and will look to make the Patriots work by ensuring his quarterback takes advantage of his opportunities to run. Watson threw for 301 yards against New England last season and ran for another 41 against a defense that has had its issues early in seasons of late. Watson’s chances of lighting up the Pats again would improve if Will Fuller is able to be a factor. He’s a game-time decision due to a hamstring injury. The Texans have lost seven straight in this series and have won only once in 10 career meetings.

Tennessee at Miami, 1 p.m. ET, FOX: Ryan Tannehill’s ill-timed ACL tear sabotaged Miami last season, forcing them to turn to Jay Cutler. He took part in preseason action, throwing for a score while not committing a turnover, but this is going to be a major test right out of the box. Tennessee will have an aggressive defensive game plan in place with head coach Mike Vrabel and veteran coordinator Dean Pees joining forces. The Dolphins are hoping that Kenyan Drake can emerge as a workhorse and have veteran Frank Gore and rookie Kalen Ballage on board, so we might see a major emphasis on the ground game in this one in order to ease Tannehill in and survive the absence of top WR DeVante Parker, who is sitting with a finger injury. Danny Amendola should factor in heavily in his debut. Tennessee got bad news with safety Kendrick Lewis (foot) and rookie LBs Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry ruled out. The secondary already lost safety Jonathan Cyprien for the season early in camp. DE Derrick Morgan will play.

Titans tight end Delanie Walker, Marcus Mariota’s security blanket, is going to play after sitting out the preseason to rest his toe. The Dolphins struggled to cover that position well last season, so Walker and FIU product Jonnu Smith could feature prominently. The offensive line will be without starting tackle Jack Conklin, so they’ll be relying on veteran backup Dennis Kelly to help create space for Mariota, Derrick Henry and newcomer Dion Lewis, who should provide a versatile threat out of the backfield. Tennessee went winless and didn’t cover this preseason so the team is looking for its first taste of success under the new leadership. Thunderstorms are a possibility in South Florida but likely won’t factor in until late in the game if at all.

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS: Patrick Mahomes II won his first start last season in a meaningless Week 17 game, so he’s got that experience to draw on as he takes over as Kansas City’s starting quarterback. That victory came in Denver, so he’s performed on the road and won’t have to deal with much of an atmosphere in Carson since the StubHub Center offers the Chargers the least significant homefield edge in the NFL. Mahomes also won’t have to deal with top Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa, who will miss the game with a foot injury. Corey Liuget is serving a four-game suspension and the secondary has already lost a few key bodies, so a few factors have lineup in his favor as he looks to build on the success Alex Smith enjoyed. The presumption is that the Chiefs may take a step back due to his inexperience and proclivity for mistakes, but the arm talent he brings to the table could help push weapons like Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill to another level.

Philip Rivers has plenty of help to try and put the Chargers over the top following a frustrating season that saw his team go 1-4 in games decided by three or fewer points. With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams available in addition to Tyrell Williams and RB Melvin Gordon, L.A. should be able to put up points against a secondary that struggled last season and traded Marcus Peters to the Rams. He picked off Rivers twice in the last meeting between these teams. Starting safety Daniel Sorensen is out with a knee injury and veteran Eric Berry is doubtful due to a heel issue. Those absences put Kansas City’s streak of eight consecutive victories against their AFC West rival in jeopardy. The Chiefs have won 16 of 17 within the division under Andy Reid.

Seattle at Denver, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Case Keenum will attempt to solidify the quarterback position for Denver, which has gone 14-18 since winning Super Bowl 50. Paxton Lynch is unemployed, Trevor Siemian is a backup in Minnesota and Brock Osweiler is doing the same in Miami, so all the bad men are gone. Although C.J. Anderson and Aqib Talib will be missed, a younger determined group will look to keep Vance Joseph off the chopping block, which will likely hinge on a strong start to the season. Rookie Royce Freeman will start ahead of Devontae Booker, while Adam Jones is going to start in Talib’s spot and probably return punts after asking for Champ Bailey’s number in an attempt to “honor” his legacy. Denver lost each of its preseason home games but won the last two, looking impressive in a dress rehearsal win at the Redskins.

Seattle is reloading on the run, moving on from the Legion of Boom era but still clinging to one key component with Earl Thomas ending his holdout. He’s returned to practices and is considered a game-time decision in this season opener but will likely play. Rookie Shaquem Griffin has been announced as a starter for a new-look defense that saw Kam Chancellor retire, LB K.J. Wright and DE Dion Jordan ruled out due to injuries and numerous other contributors like Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, Sheldon Richardson and Cliff Avril no longer around. Ken Norton, Jr., who didn’t have much success as a defensive coordinator in Oakland, takes over those duties this season. It remains to be seen if new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer opens things up for Russell Wilson given the uncertainty surrounding the defense, but that hasn’t been his history. Top target Doug Baldwin (knee) and rookie running back Rashaad Penny (finger) will both be available. The Seahawks have dropped their last six September road games, failing to cover any of them. Conversely, Denver is 8-1 SU (7-1-1 ATS) at home over the last few years in the season’s opening month and has won 17 of 24 against the Seahawks.

Dallas at Carolina, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Over the past few seasons, Dallas’ strength has been an offensive line that has created opportunities for Tony Romo and Dak Prescott while giving Ezekiel Elliott a lot of room to work. As the 2018 season begins, that advantage appears to have diminished. Center Travis Frederick is out with Guillain-Barre syndrome, experiencing numbness in his feet, hands and arms. Replacement Joe Looney has never started at center. Rookie Connor Williams will start at left guard with Chaz Green no longer around. Zack Martin will be available but has been struggling with a knee injury. With Dez Bryant gone, Prescott will have to make the aerial attack work with Tavon Austin, Allen Hurns and rookie Michael Gallup. Can tight end Rico Gathers take the next step in his development?

The Panthers will go as far as Cam Newton takes them, but he’s got offensive line issues of his own to contend with. They’ll be looking to execute a new offense with veteran Norv Turner at the helm, going up against a familiar face in good friend Jason Garrett and his one-time former employer. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, while right tackle Daryl Williams is questionable after tearing his MCL and dislocating his patella back in the team’s first practice. Guard Amini Silatolu is also questionable with a knee issue. The addition of C.J. Anderson, Torrey Smith and rookie WR DJ Moore give Newton help, while Christian McCaffrey sowed off increased explosiveness in the preseason. Carolina has won 24 of its last 30 in Charlotte, where thunderstorms may be a part of the equation late Sunday afternoon.

Washington at Arizona, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX: Arizona begins the Steve Wilks era against visiting Washington, turning the keys over to newcomer Sam Bradford, who will play mentor to top pick Josh Rosen until the time is right to pass the torch. Or until he gets hurt, which let’s face it, is a strong possibility since he hasn’t played all 16 games of a season since 2012. He was the NFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance in last year’s season opener, a Monday night home win over New Orleans, and had a solid preseason. David Johnson is returning from a wrist injury that cost him most of 2017, but center AQ Shipley already landed on IR, complicating matters since the ‘Skins arrive with an aggressive defense that can do a lot of damage with Alabama products Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne up front.

Alex Smith will make his first start with his new team, likely with Adrian Peterson lined up behind him on his first snap from scrimmage. Few could’ve seen that coming. Rookie second-round pick Derrius Guice tore his ACL in early August, so Peterson was signed to try and handle some of the workload with versatile back Chris Thompson also due to see extensive action. Tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis are also expected to see major roles as the offense takes on a new personality after Kirk Cousins moved along. Washington has won nine of 11 against the Cardinals.

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: Chicago will have LBs Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith in the lineup but both are likely to be on a pitch count due to a lack of preparation time with the Bears and veteran coordinator Vic Fangio. Leonard Floyd (hand) is also expected to play, so the Packers and their opposition going forward will have to contend with a special group once everyone gets settled. Green Bay is fortunate in that it gets to host this game and face this defense before they’ve had a chance to truly come together, so Aaron Rodgers has an opportunity to start strong. He’ll have tackles Bryan Bulaga (knee) and David Bakhtiari (ankle) in the mix in front of him and his entire receiving corps available despite losing Jordy Nelson.

The Bears are looking for growth from second-year QB Mitch Trubisky, who has himself two potential No. 1 receivers in newcomer Allen Robinson and rookie Anthony Miller out of Memphis. The 51st pick was fantastic in the preseason and could quickly emerge next to the former Jaguars standout, while Josh Bellamy and Taylor Gabriel are also on board alongside versatile tight end Trey Burton and backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The ingredients are there for first-year head coach Matt Nagy to put together a quick turnaround. Chicago has dropped nine consecutive games against NFC North competition and runs into a Green Bay squad that has won 16 of its last 19 September home games (13-5-1 ATS) and is 16-3 SU against the Bears since 2009, scoring 20 or more points in only six of those 19 contests. Conditions at Lambeau should be cool on a crisp, clear night where temperatures will dip into the low 50s.

**Udog** · 09-08-2018, 09:09 PM

Total Talk - Week 1
Chris David

The 2018 NFL regular season is underway and total bettors playing the ‘under’ in last Thursday’s opener between the Eagles and Falcons were treated to a wire-to-wire winner.

Philadelphia captured an 18-12 victory at home and ‘under’ 44 ½ was never in doubt. Even though the betting public usually leans high in the nationally televised primetime games, this game was bet down from an opener of 47 and the move was certainly right.

Fifteen games left in Week 1 and plenty to discuss.

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 1 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: 47 to 41
Buffalo at Baltimore: 42 ½ to 40 ½
Dallas at Carolina: 44 to 42 ½

The offshore outfit opened their numbers in late April, one of the first books to do so and the lines have held steady outside of the Browns-Steelers matchup. A lot of the downward movement on this game came this week when hopes of Pittsburgh running back Le’Veon Bell returning to the lineup were diminished.

Listed below are the largest betting trend percentages per the VI Matchup index as of Saturday.

Steelers-Browns: Under 86%
Bills-Ravens: Under 85%
Jaguars-Giants: Under 82%
Rams-Raiders: Under 77%
Titans-Dolphins: Under 75%

It’s a little surprising to see this many low-side leans knowing most bettors lean to ‘over’ tickets but I could certainly see the argument for the five leans above.

Fifty Something

Even though a lot of pundits believe scoring will increase this season due to the new rule changes helping offensive units, we only have one Week 1 total listed in the fifties.

That matchup takes place in Foxboro between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots. The two teams met last season in Week 3 from Gillette Stadium and ‘over’ (44 ½) bettors cashed an easy ticket with New England holding off Houston 33-30.

That game was the coming-out party for Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, who lit up New England for 342 total yards and two touchdowns. In six games as starter before his knee injury, the Texans averaged 34.6 points per game. Watson is certainly a huge ‘wildcard’ this season but if healthy and back to last year’s form, it’s certainly hard to imagine a huge drop-off in 2018.

New England was a tough team to figure out last season from a totals perspective. They started 2017 with four ‘over’ winners in a row but the defense improved and the ‘under’ closed the regular season on a 9-3 run. The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the postseason and the last thing bettors recall is New England making Eagles backup QB Nick Foles look like an all-time great. Watching him on Thursday versus the Falcons and in the preseason, it’s safe to say that we agree Foles shouldn’t be placed in that echelon.

Historically, this series has watched the ‘over’ go 8-2 in the 10 meetings between the pair and the Patriots have averaged 33.1 PPG in those games. Make a note that the number jumps to 35.4 PPG with Tom Brady as starting quarterback.

One trend that could have you leaning high focuses on a Super Bowl angle with the runner-up of last year’s finale. It’s widely known to back last year’s winner and that cashed Thursday with Philadelphia. It’s also known to fade the loser, which is New England. Along with fading the Patriots, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight openers for the SB loser.

Divisional Matchups

Week 1 has four divisional matchups on tap in Week 1 and one will be played in the Sunday primetime slot.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings but we’ve seen a stalemate the past two seasons (2-2). In the last four, both games in Pittsburgh went ‘over’ while the two matchups in Cleveland saw the low side connect and many bettors believe that trend will continue.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: This series has had some high totals recently with the last five meetings closing in the fifties. Despite the high expectations, the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 during this span and last year’s 31-24 win by Tampa Bay in Week 17 was fortunate to go ‘over’ as the pair combined for 25 points in the fourth quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start at QB for the Bucs and in three starts for Tampa Bay last season, the club averaged 21.7 PPG. New Orleans has been a great ‘over’ bet in Week 1 recently, going 6-1 to the high side the last seven years. For those of you looking to lay the points with New Orleans, be aware that it is 1-6 during this run and the clubs has allowed an average 35.6 PPG in the setbacks.

Kansas City at L.A. Chargers: In a series dominated recently by the Chiefs (8-0 L8), we’ve also seen a strong ‘under’ (6-2) trend between the pair. The Chargers have been held to 13.8 PPG during this span. Los Angeles was the best ‘under’ bet (12-4) in the AFC last season, which was helped with the top ranked scoring defense (17 PPG). The unit is a little banged up (Bosa out) for Week 1 but should still have an edge over second-year QB Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs.

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Below)

AFC vs. NFC

Non-conference matchups are never an easy handicap but there are trends to keep an eye on for the opening weekend.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Giants: The Jaguars watched the ‘over’ go 4-0 versus the NFC last season and the well-respected defense allowed 30.5 PPG in those games. New York is 6-2 to the ‘under’ in its last eight matchups against AFC foes.

Seattle at Denver: Seattle has watched the ‘over’ go 15-5 in its last 20 non-conference games and that includes a run of seven straight to the high side. The Broncos are 5-2 to the ‘under’ in their last seven versus the NFC.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit: The Jets saw the ‘over’ go 3-1 in their four matchups against the NFC last season. The Lions surrendered 21.2 PPG to the AFC last season. The team went 1-3 and the lone win came against 0-16 Cleveland, who posted 24 on Detroit. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

L.A. Rams at Oakland: The Rams swept their four AFC opponents last season and the offense averaged 33.3 PPG, which helped the ‘over’ go 3-1. The Raiders took a step back in 2017 against the NFC, scoring just 15.3 PPG. That production led to a 1-3 record and 4-0 ‘under’ mark.

Under the Lights

SNF - Chicago at Green Bay: The ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last 10 meetings between the pair and the Bears just don’t have an answer for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 15-4 against Chicago with him as a starter and it’s averaging 37.4 PPG in the last seven encounters. The Bears defense wasn’t exactly a pushover (20 PPG) last season and that helped the ‘under’ go 12-4 but two of the four ‘over’ tickets came vs. Green Bay. Since the SNF game is a huge ‘chase’ game for bettors, you know the books will be hoping for a Bears-Under combination.

The Monday Night Football double-header began in 2006 and continues this week with a pair of non-conference games (see above). We haven’t seen many glaring trends recently with the ‘over’ going 6-4 over the past five seasons.

N.Y. Jets at Detroit: Based on Detroit’s reputation as an ‘over’ team, I would expect this line to get juiced up by kickoff. The Lions went 10-6 to the high side last season, 6-2 from Ford Field. Also, the Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 7-0 in their last seven Week 1 matchups and the offense has averaged 30.7 PPG in this span.

L.A. Rams at Oakland: The Rams were also a solid ‘over’ club last season (11-5) and a lot of that damage came on the road (7-1) because of their potent offense (32.8 PPG). Will we see a regression? Will the new-look L.A. defense keep opponents in check? We’ll find out soon enough and we’ll also get to see if head coach Jon Gruden can improve an Oakland offense (18.8 PPG) that struggled last season.

Fearless Predictions

This is my 11th year producing the “Total Talk” column on and certainly one of my favorites. For those new to the VegasInsider.com and the industry, welcome aboard and best of luck with your wagers. And to those that have circled back around, thanks for the loyalty. Remember, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Seattle-Denver 42 ½

Best Under: Kansas City-L.A. Chargers 48 ½

Best Team Total: Over Cincinnati 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 40 Bengals-Colts
Over 42 Buccaneers-Saints
Over 37 ½ Jets-Lions

**Udog** · 09-08-2018, 09:38 PM

Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sep. 9

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Interestingly, Brownies have covered last 3 meetings, though they’ve lost last 6 SU in series. Hue Jackson just 4-12 vs. line each of past two seasons. Steel “under” 8-0-1 last nine as reg season visitor.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Steelers “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners were 5-0 SU and vs. spread in Garoppolo starts last season, which makes Garoppolo 7-0 SU and vs. line in his starts since 2016 (Pats & 49ers). SF also “under” 6-2 away LY. Vikes, however, 8-1 vs. line last 9 reg season at home. Minny also 2-5-1 “under” in reg season at US Bank Stadium LY.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “”totals” trends.

CINCINNATI at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts “under’ 15-8 last 23 back to mid 2016, but have lost and failed to cover last three openers (with Pagano). Save 2016, Marvin Lewis usually good as a dog (5-3-1 LY; 11-3-1 203-15, though 1-5 in role in 2016). Reich Indy debut.
Tech Edge: Bengals and “under,” based on “totals” and team trends.

BUFFALO at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh 7-3 SU and vs. line in openers with Ravens. Harbaugh also “under” last four openers. Bills only 4-5 as reg season dog LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Shurmur G-Men debut! Eli 7-4 as home dog since 2015, and “under” 17-7 since mid 2016.
Tech Edge: Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends..

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Home team has won and covered all four meetings past two seasons. Saints have covered last five as host in NFC South games. Brees also “over” 21-11 last four years as reg season host. Koetter 14-8-1 as dog past two seasons.
Tech Edge: Saints and slight to “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Note Texans were 5-1 vs. line LY in games started by Deshaun Watson, including cover and near miss of upset SU win at Foxborough. Houston 2-8 vs. spread LY in games Watson didn’t start. Texans also “over” 5-0 in Watson’s last five starts in 2018.
Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on Watson trends.

TENNESSEE at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vrabel Titans debut! Tenn only 2-5-1 as road chalk since 2015. Dolphins closed slow LY with 2-7-1 spread mark last ten, though Gase is 5-2-1 as home dog past two seasons.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on team trends.

KANSAS CITY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid has owned this series lately, 8-0 SU and 6-2 vs. line since 2014 vs. Bolts. Chiefs 15-6 vs. spread last 21 reg seas away from Arrowhead 5. Bolts “under” 12-4 LY (including both vs. KC).
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Vance Joseph closed 2017 on 2-10 spread skid,and Broncos 5-14-1 vs. number since late in 2016. Denver has, however, won last 6 SU in openers. Pete Carroll 21-10-4 as dog since 2011.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

DALLAS at CAROLINA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cam 3-1 SU and vs. line last four openers, and Pan-thas did cover 6 of last 9 reg seas LY. Dak only 1-3 as dog LY though Cowboys were 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven away in 2017. Dallas “under” 14-7 last 21 reg seas since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Wilks Az debut! Big Red is 29-11-1 SU at Glendale since 2014. Also “under” 13-5-1 last 19 at UOP Stadium. Jay Gruden flattening out a bit lately vs. line but it “over” 17-7 away since 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Nagy Bears debut! Pack is 7-3-1 as Lambeau chalk past two seasons. Bears only 5-11 vs. line away past two seasons and were also “under” 11-5 LY for.
Tech Edge: Pack and slight to "under," based on Lambeau trends.

Monday, Sept. 10

N.Y. JETS at DETROIT (ESPN, 7:10 p.m. ET)
Patricia debut for Lions! Caldwell was 14-5-1 as Ford Field chalk the past four seasons. Though Lions enter 2018 only 4-6 vs. spread last ten as host. Bowles just 3-7-1 as road dog past two seasons but “under” 10-5 last 15 away.
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

L.A. RAMS at OAKLAND (ESPN, 10:20 p.m. ET)
Gruden Raiders re-debut! Rams were 6-3 vs. line away LY for McVay. Oakland “under” 11-5 last season including last seven. Raid-uhs also just 4-11-3 last 18 on board since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Rams and “under."

**Udog** · 09-08-2018, 09:55 PM

NFL Week 1 SNF Betting Preview

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

It's always good to get a key divisional matchup for the first SNF game of the year, and given the expectations the Bears and Packers have for themselves in 2018, this could be a great way to start the primetime SNF season.

Both Chicago and Green Bay have NFC North division title hopes as Green Bay's got QB Aaron Rodgers healthy and happy with a new fat contract, while Chicago made out and made a huge deal to get LB Khalil Mack from Oakland and made him happy with a fat contract as well.

Yet, the Bears are still basically in Year 2 of their rebuilding program with QB Mitchell Trubisky at the helm, and went out and got him plenty of help earlier in the off-season. Will it be enough to find a way for the Bears to pull off a Week 1 upset?

Odds: Green Bay (-7.5); Total set at 47

Getting Mack was a huge boost for the Bears this past week as it sent a message to the players that the organization firmly believes they are in a position to compete now. Whether or not that comes to fruition over the course of 16 games these next few months remains to be seen, but as the entire division around them gets to continuously talk about how great their QB's are (Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford), the Bears went out to attack that issue head on with the Mack deal, while hopefully their own young QB matures into that class of player. Make no mistake about it, this Bears team is going to try and win with defense first this year and it'll start in Green Bay on Sunday.

The Packers might have opened up their checkbook to Rodgers this year, but they did also bring him a great redzone target in TE Jimmy Graham. Graham expects to be a big factor for the Packers down tight – ala Gronkowski in New England – but the Packers still need to find a consistent running game soon or they risk becoming too one-dimensional again with their attack. When you've got one of the best QB's in the game like Aaron Rodgers you are naturally going to want to keep the ball in his hands as often as possible, but one-dimensional attacks in the NFL can be fairly easy to defend.

Furthermore, the Packers have learned the past few years that they can't solely rely on Rodgers and the offense to win every game 35-32. Green Bay made a decided effort to improve on the defensive line and in their secondary, and with their linebacking core healthy to start the year, this Packers defense could end up being just as nasty as the Bears here.

All of that means that this game sets up as one where it's strength vs strength (Packers offense vs Bears defense), with each side hoping for some decided improvements on the other side of the ball. The former will make Green Bay drives exciting to watch as a general fan, but not so much if you like high-scoring games. Chicago played plenty of bend-but-don't-break a year ago and with the talent they've got now, their defense might not even bend all that much. Chances are we will see plenty of long Packers drives end in FG's or worse in that case as points should actually be hard to come by here.

Which leads me to this total of 47.5 being too high for this game as we could see more of the old NFC North days when this division used to be nicknamed the “black and blue” division for how hard-hitting it was. Green Bay's defense isn't about to go out and get lit up by Trubisky in the season opener, and Chicago won't exactly be taking that many offensive risks, content to play a field position game and rely on their defense.

Seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have cashed 'under' tickets, and while many of those have come in much colder and rougher weather conditions, the end result won't be any different here.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points

**Udog** · 09-09-2018, 10:30 PM

Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Jets at Lions (-6 ½, 44 ½) – 7:10 PM EST - ESPN

SAM I AM READY

Although Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson saw action at quarterback on Sunday, former USC standout Sam Darnold is the first rookie from this past NFL draft to start a regular season contest. Darnold beat out veteran Josh McCown for the starting position looking to improve a Jets’ squad that finished 5-11 last season, capped off by four consecutive losses.

Darnold began the preseason by throwing a touchdown pass in a 17-0 shutout of the Falcons, but the Jets lost the final three exhibition contests. The Jets head to Ford Field coming off a dreadful 1-7 record on the road last season, while picking up only one cover, which came as 16 ½-point underdogs in a 31-19 setback at New Orleans. In case you were wondering, the only victory away from Met Life Stadium for New York came at Cleveland, 17-14.

HE AIN’T LION

Matt Patricia makes his head coaching debut for Detroit following a successful run as defensive coordinator of the Patriots. The Lions lost three of four preseason games, including both contests at Ford Field to the Browns and Giants. In the lone preseason victory at Tampa Bay, the Lions erased a 27-6 deficit to stun the Bucs, 33-30.

Patricia inherits a team that is coming off consecutive 9-7 seasons, but the franchise is seeking its first playoff victory since 1991. The Lions began 2017 with a solid 3-1 record and even owned a 6-4 mark through 10 games. However, Detroit split its final six games as nine wins was not enough to make the postseason for the second consecutive year.

FAST STARTERS

Since losing the infamous Calvin Johnson non-touchdown catch game at Chicago in 2010, the Lions have captured six of their past seven season openers. In this span, Detroit is 4-0 at Ford Field, including rallying from an early 10-0 deficit in a 35-23 victory over Arizona as two-point underdogs in 2017. The Lions are hosting a Week 1 Monday night affair for the first time since 2014, when Detroit blew out the other New York club by beating the Giants, 35-14 as 6 ½-point favorites.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time the Lions and Jets hooked up came back in 2014 at Met Life Stadium as Detroit grabbed a 24-17 triumph as two-point underdogs. Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 293 yards and two touchdowns, while wide receiver Golden Tate hauled in eight receptions for 116 yards. The Jets’ signal-caller that day was Geno Smith, who compiled 209 yards passing to go along with a touchdown and interception as the Lions led by as many as 14 points in the second half.

The Jets won in their most recent trip to Ford Field in 2010 as Mark Sanchez threw for 336 yards in a 23-20 overtime victory. However, Detroit covered as a 5 ½-point home underdog.

LINE MOVEMENT

This game opened with the Lions listed as six-point favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, but has crept up to 6 ½ points at most outlets. The total opened at 44, but is up to 44 ½ and even 45 at several books. Last season, Detroit cashed the OVER in six of eight games at Ford Field, including three of four times in the favorite role.

Rams (-4 ½, 48) at Raiders – 10:15 PM EST – ESPN

CHUCKY’S BACK

Jon Gruden spent four seasons as the head coach of the Raiders from 1998-2001 as he lead Oakland to consecutive AFC West titles in his final two seasons. Gruden’s final game with the Raiders was the famous “Tuck Rule” game in the playoff overtime loss to the Patriots, which began New England’s dynasty. After a successful run as the analyst on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, Gruden is back in the East Bay looking to restore the Silver and Black to excellence.

The Raiders started 2017 with plenty of promise after beating the Titans and Jets by double-digits. However, Oakland fell apart by losing 10 of the final 14 games, while the Raiders scored 17 points or less in all 10 defeats. Following a 6-2 record at the Oakland Coliseum in their playoff run of 2016, the Raiders slipped to 4-3 at the Black Hole last season, while their other “home” game in Mexico was a 25-point blowout at the hands of the Patriots.

RAMMING AHEAD

In his first season as the head man in Los Angeles, Sean McVay helped ramp up a mediocre Rams’ attack as L.A. scored at least 30 points in eight games. The Rams captured their first NFC West title since 2003 by finishing 11-5 before getting tripped up by the Falcons in the Wild Card round. Quarterback Jared Goff threw 28 touchdown passes compared to seven interceptions, while running back Todd Gurley racked up 1,305 yards on the ground.

The Rams didn’t own much of a home-field advantage at the L.A. Coliseum by going 4-4, but Los Angeles posted a tremendous 7-1 road record, including five wins in the favorite role. However, the Rams put together a 3-2 ATS mark in those five road chalk affairs, but finished OVER the total in all five of those opportunities.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

Los Angeles is making only its third appearance on Monday night football since 2013. The Rams were last on Monday night two seasons ago following their move from St. Louis as the 49ers blasted Los Angeles, 28-0 in the 2016 opener. In this same stretch, the Raiders own a 1-2 record on Mondays, with their last win coming in Mexico against the Texans in 2016. The last time the Raiders hosted a Monday night affair came in 2012 as they lost to the Chargers in the season opener, 22-14.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time Derek Carr saw the Rams back in 2014, the Raiders were destroyed in St. Louis, 52-0. The Rams jumped out to a 38-0 halftime lead as quarterback Shaun Hill threw two touchdown passes, while running back Tre Mason found the end zone twice. That season, the Raiders finished in last place of the AFC West at 3-13, while this loss was amazingly not the worst in franchise history as they suffered a 55-0 defeat to the Oilers in 1961.

The Raiders beat the Rams in L.A.’s last trip to Oakland in 2010 by a 16-14 count as three-point favorites. The last victory for the Rams on the road in this series came in 2006 by a 20-0 shutout as Steven Jackson rushed for 127 yards and two scores.

LINE MOVEMENT

In early May, CG Technologies released the Raiders as 1 ½-point favorites, but the Rams have flipped to a 4 to 4 ½-point favorite at most books. The total opened at 49 ½ before briefly dropping to between 47 ½ and 48 at many outlets.

**Udog** · 09-10-2018, 09:26 AM

Jets vs Lions NFL betting picks and predictions: Darnold debuts on Monday Night Football

New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 44.5)

QUICK HITTER

The Lions and Jets face off at Ford Field on Monday night as New York looks to rebound from a dismal season on both sides of the football, and they will turn to rookie Sam Darnold to run the offense. However, that figures to be a tough task in his NFL debut as the Lions have a serviceable secondary led by Darius Slay, and if the Jets can’t establish the ground game early and often it will force their lackluster passing game to go to work. The Lions meanwhile have a laundry list of weapons offensively and, while the Jets defense can go punch-for-punch, it will take them a sequence or two to get acclimated to the crowd noise. Look for Stafford to dissect the Jets defense early in the first quarter and get in the endzone for the game’s opening score.

Prediction: First Score: Detroit Touchdown (+170)

HALF TIME BET

The Jets offense will live and die by the run early on, as Sam Darnold gets his bearings in NFL action, and with Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell carrying the rock they are more than capable of handling the load. The Lions don’t have the greatest defense and if the game plan goes according to Todd Bowles’ intentions the Lions defense will be on the field plenty in the opening half, and allow New York to continue building momentum offensively. If Ezekiel Ansah and company can plug the holes it will force the Jets to throw the ball, but for the first half the Jets should have their way on the ground and put up enough to eclipse the 8.5-point first half team total that seems to be incredibly low.

Prediction: First Half: Jets over 8.5

TEAM/PLAYER BET

One of the key matchups in this contest will be the skill set of the Detroit receivers against the shut down capabilities of the New York cornerbacks, with Golden Tate matched up with Trumaine Johnson and Marvin Jones lined up against Morris Claiborne. The Jets defense was woeful last season but with those two corners manning the secondary, alongside sophomore sensation Jamal Adams, and Leonard Williams leading a talented defensive line they are in much better shape this time around. However, Claiborne is going to get picked on in this contest, and with most of his matchups coming up against Jones, the WR1-A for the Lions will get himself into the endzone at some point in this game.

Prediction: Marvin Jones TD (+120)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Lions had the league’s worst running game last season and haven’t done much to rectify their woes, with the exception of drafting Kerryon Johnson, so you can be sure Detroit will be throwing the ball all game long. The Jets though will be hammering the rock on the ground, and if successful they should keep Detroit's offense off the field and allow the clock to run - keeping the total manageable until well into the second half. Both teams struggle to score on Monday Night Football as the Lions have stayed Under the number in 9 of their last 13 contests, while the Jets have played to the Under in four of their last five Monday night games and seven of their last 10 road games overall. This one should follow a similar script and come Under the 44.5 point total.

Prediction: Game Total: Under 44.5 (-110)

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Lions are favoured by a touchdown, as the oddsmakers are banking on a rocky start from Sam Darnold, and while that may still come to fruition Darnold’s performance shouldn't play much of a factor in the outcome of this game. Detroit will rely solely on the passing game to win and cover and that should allow New York’s defense to double-cover downfield and prevent the deep threat from burning them multiple times. Also, the Jets defense should be able to get to Matt Stafford and they should win the turnover battle in this game giving the Jets the chance to win the game outright, let alone cover the 6.5 points. Take the Jets to keep this one close.

Prediction: Game Side: Jets +6.5 (-110)

**Udog** · 09-10-2018, 09:29 AM

Rams vs Raiders NFL betting picks and predictions: Great expectations in L.A.

Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4, 47.5)

QUICK HITTER

Jon Gruden’s return to the sidelines should give the Raiders, and their fans, something to be excited about but that novelty should wear out fast as they are in big trouble in this spot, despite playing at home on Monday Night Football. The Rams come into the regular season as one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl, as they added some big time pieces to an already impressive roster that should have no trouble eating up yards on a Raiders defense that was terrible last season, and is now without their cornerstone piece as they shipped Khalil Mack to the Bears. Los Angeles has so many weapons on offense and with Sean McVey having plenty of time to game plan for a lackluster Raiders defense, they should have no issues starting the season on the right foot and score the game’s first major.

Prediction: First Score: Los Angeles Rams Touchdown (+190)

HALF TIME BET

The Raiders will be leaning heavily on Derek Carr this season as they are going to be in plenty of shootouts, with their defense shaping up to be a bottom-five unit in the NFL, but luckily the Silver and Black have some nice pieces on the offensive side of the football. Jordy Nelson came over from the Packers, and both Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper are primed for a bounce back season, but they are going to be in tough against a Rams defense that features the best interior defensive line in football with Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald stuffing the run. This should allow the Rams offense plenty of time to operate in the first half and the Rams will score at least two first half touchdowns.

Prediction: First Half: Los Angeles Rams Over 1.5 Touchdowns (+100)

TEAM/PLAYER BET

Los Angeles became a Super Bowl threat a season ago, thanks to the breakout season from both Todd Gurley and Jared Goff, and as the core of their team’s offense the Rams should be able to compete with anybody offensively. Furthermore, the Rams boast one of the league’s best defenses and should seriously be considered a threat to win the Lombardi Trophy and against the Raiders expect the Rams to attack the Oakland defense from a number of different directions. Despite the number of mismatches in favour of the Rams in this spot, the biggest could be Gurley against the Raiders run defense - and with a price tag of +400 for Gurley to score the game’s first touchdown it is too good to pass up in what looks to be a clock-work effort for the Rams.

Prediction: Gurley First TD (+400)

FULL-GAME TOTAL

The Raiders received a ton of criticism when they dealt Khalil Mack, and rightfully so, but the one consolation is that former Bengals defensive coordinator Paul Guenther is taking over and he has shown he can game plan a pretty imposing defensive scheme. Oakland’s offense is still a decent group when healthy, and while the Rams defense is very imposing the Raiders should still be able to put up some points in this spot, whether it happens in garbage time or otherwise. We have already highlighted the dangerous Rams offense and with all things considered this game should eclipse the total. The Over is 7-3 in Oakland’s last 10 September games while the Rams have gone Over in seven of their last eight games on the road. This game follows a similar script.

Prediction: Game Total: Over 47.5

FULL-GAME SIDE

The Rams have covered in their last four meetings against the Raiders and the line has moved from -2.5 in favor of Los Angeles and spiked up to -4 thanks to the Khalil Mack trade. Los Angeles is a very dangerous team and if this game was at a neutral site the Rams would be favoured by at least a touchdown which indicates the separation between these two clubs. The Black Hole deserves some kind of consideration, as does hosting a Monday Night Football game, but when you look at these two teams side-by-side there is clearly a ton of separation and that should be reflected in the final score. It might be worthwhile buying up a few points, as well, as a double digit victory is a very plausible finish.

Prediction: Game Side: Rams -4

**Udog** · 09-10-2018, 09:32 AM

NFL Week 2 bettors hit Cowboys' odds early, briefly pushing line up against Giants
Patrick Everson

Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys had little success in Week 1 at Carolina, but early bettors liked the Cowboys at home against the Giants in Week 2, moving the line from Dallas -3 to -3.5.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Two teams that combined for just 23 total points in Week 1 get together in the Sunday night game, both trying to avoid an 0-2 start.

Dallas was the more impotent offense, held scoreless through 3½ quarters before an Ezekiel Elliott 4-yard TD run and subsequent Dak Prescott 2-point conversion run. But that was it for the Cowboys, who lost to Carolina 16-8 as a 3-point road underdog.

New York debuted running back Saquon Barkley, the second overall pick in the NFL Draft, and he delivered a 68-yard fourth-quarter touchdown run. But the Giants were otherwise inept, losing to Jacksonville 20-15 as a 3-point home pup.

Despite Dallas’ flagging start, early bettors at the Superbook seem to like the Cowboys.

“We moved to -3.5 quickly on this game,” Murray said. “These teams look pretty even to me. Big game for the Cowboys. They need that one at home.”

Later Sunday night, the Superbook went back to the opener of 3.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Green Bay took a collective gulp after Aaron Rodgers was carted off with a knee injury in the first half of the Week 1 Sunday nighter against Chicago. However, with the Packers down 20-0 at home, Rodgers came back in the second half and led a huge rally as Green Bay won 24-23 victory giving 7 points.

Rodgers missed a big chunk of last season with a shoulder injury, and the Pack missed the playoffs. This time, it appears he might be OK.

After reaching last year’s NFC Championship Game, Minnesota featured a new quarterback this season in Kirk Cousins and started with similar results. Cousins had two TD passes and no interceptions as the Vikings beat San Francisco 26-14 laying 6 points at home.

“The Vikings looked good today,” Murray said. “That line could move, depending on how the Packers look (Sunday night).”

Murray and his Superbook crew were almost prophetic with their weekly ritual on Sunday night games.

“We take them off the board when that prime-time game kicks off, as a pre-emptive move in case something like this happens,” he said of the Rodgers injury.

The line was still at 2.5 when the Superbook took the game down.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (Pick)

Defending AFC champion New England opened the 2018-19 campaign with a rather run-of-the-mill win and cover. The Patriots got out to a 21-6 halftime lead against Houston, then held on with relative ease for a 27-20 victory as a 6.5-point home chalk.

Jacksonville, which had New England on its heels in that AFC Championship Game, got the new season off to a good start. The Jaguars’ defense gave up one big Saquon Barkley TD run, but otherwise kept the New York Giants in check in a 20-15 victory laying 3 points on the road.

“Both teams had solid games today,” Murray said Sunday night. “I expect to need Jacksonville pretty big on Sunday.”

Indeed, after opening this game a pick ‘em, the Patriots moved to -1.5 in short order at the Superbook.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (no line)

Tennessee also got bit by the quarterback injury bug in Week 1, but in this case, Marcus Mariota left late in the third quarter and did not return after hurting his right elbow. The Titans were largely ineffective to that point, trailing 10-3 at Miami, then put up 17 fourth-quarter points before ultimately losing 27-20 in a pick ‘em game. There were two weather delays totaling nearly four hours.

Blaine Gabbert finished for Mariota, whose status is uncertain.

Houston welcomed the return of Deshaun Watson at quarterback, after he missed half of last season with a knee injury. But the Texans never really threatened New England, losing 27-20 as a 6.5-point road ‘dog.

“This game is off the board due to the Titans’ injuries,” Murray said, noting that left tackle Taylor Lewan suffered a concussion and wideout Delanie Walker dislocated an ankle, likely ending his season. “With a quarterback injury, it’s just too hard to say where we’ll open this line.”

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