CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Fri., Aug. 31 - Mon., Sept. 3)

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Friday, August 31 - Monday, September 3

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Betting Recap - Week 11
Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 11
-- Underdogs went 3-1 ATS in Week 11
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 11
-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 11
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 11

Analysis

Hamilton (4-5) was back in action after a bye, topping Edmonton (6-4) by a 25-24 count in the Hammer. The Eskimos had the unenviable task of playing five days later after a win at home on Aug. 18 against Montreal (2-8). It has been rough for the Esks lately, allowing 26.3 points per game (PPG) across their past three.

As far as the Ti-Cats are concerned, they have won two of their past three straight-up, while going 2-1 ATS in the past three as well. The 'under' is 5-1-1 over their past seven games despite the fact they have averaged 29.3 PPG in their past three.

For the Alouettes, they snapped a six-game losing streak with a victory over rival Toronto (3-6), as QB Johnny Manziel earned his first victory under center. They scored 25 points to set a new season best, topping the 24 points they posted in their previous game in Edmonton. The Als are suddenly putting it together, and they have covered in a season-high three consecutive games, too.

For the Argonauts, they dropped to 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in four trips away from home with their loss in Montreal. The 'under' is also 3-1 in their four forays onto the road. They'll have a bye in Week 12 before a home-and-home with the Ti-Cats in Week 13-14.

Calgary (8-1) snapped back on track after their first loss in Week 10, posting a 39-26 win and cover against Winnipeg (5-5). The Stamps defense has been a problem over the past four outings, allowing 26.5 PPG after yielding just 9.2 PPG through the first five contests. As a result, the under was 5-0 in their first five, and the over is 3-1 across the past four.

The Blue Bombers opened the season with a respectable 5-2 ATS mark in their first seven contest, but they have failed to cover in a season-high three straight. The 'over' is 4-1 in their past five, too, while going 7-3 in their 10 games overall. The D has been especially pitiful lately, allowing a total of 83 points across the past two.

The upward ascent for Saskatchewan (5-4) continued with a 24-21 road win against the BC Lions (3-5). They'll look for a season-high third straight when they kick off a home-and-home with the Bombers on Sept. 2.

[Udog]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 12
David Schwab

Week 11 Betting Recap

For the second week in a row, the underdogs in the CFL were the best bet against the spread at 3-1. Edmonton got things going last Thursday in a 25-24 loss to Hamilton as a 3 ½-point underdog on the road. In Friday’s action, Montreal pulled off the straight-up upset with a last-second 25-22 victory against Toronto as a five-point underdog at home.

Saturday’s doubleheader of games got underway with Calgary bouncing back from last week’s unexpected loss with a solid 39-26 victory over Winnipeg as a 7 ½-point home favorite. Week 11 closed things out with Saskatchewan squeezing past British Columbia 24-21 after closing as a 2 ½-point road underdog.

Friday, Aug. 31

Montreal Alouettes (2-8 SU, 5-5 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -13
Total: 51 ½

Game Overview

Montreal snapped a straight-up six-game losing streak with last Friday night’s upset and it has now covered in it last three games. The total stayed UNDER 52 ½-points against the Argonauts and it has stayed UNDER in six of the Alouettes’ first 10 contests. The quarterback situation in Montreal has been an issue all year long, but the offense has found some better consistency over the past two weeks with Antonio Pipkin as the starter. He has completed 63.2 percent of his 57 passing attempts for 520 yards.

The RedBlacks come off a Week 11 bye with a two-game lead over Hamilton in the East. They beat Montreal 24-17 on Aug. 11, but could not cover the heavy 14-point spread at home. Ottawa also won the first meeting early in the season 28-18 as a 7 ½-point road favorite. The total stayed UNDER in each of those two wins. Trevor Harris is third in the CFL in passing with 2,735 yards through nine starts.

Betting Trends

-- Ottawa has won the last five meetings SU and it has a 5-1 edge ATS in its last six games against Montreal. The total has stayed UNDER in the last five matchups in the East Division clash.


Sunday, Sept. 2

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -3
Total: 54 ½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have lost their last two outings both SU and ATS coming into the first game of this West Division home-and-home clash. The total has gone OVER in both of those setbacks with the defense allowing a combined 83 points. Winnipeg is still the highest scoring team in the league with an average of 31.5 points through its first 10 games to help take the total OVER in seven of those outings.

Saskatchewan did what it had to do to get past BC last week and it has strung together four victories in its last six games both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER 50 ½-points against the Lions after it had gone OVER in three of its previous four games. One of the big reasons for the recent success has been the elevated play of Zach Collaros at quarterback. He thrown for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns in five starts this year.

Betting Trends

-- The Roughriders have covered ATS in six of their last nine home games against Winnipeg and the total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Saskatchewan.


Monday, Sept. 3

Edmonton Eskimos (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6 ½
Total: 53

Game Overview

The Eskimos have a golden opportunity to make things interesting out West over the next two weeks in this home-and-home series. Edmonton has a pair of losses (SU and ATS) in its last three games and concerns with a shaky defense have once gain plagued this team. The defense is allowing an average of 24.7 points per game and that average as crept up to 26.7 points in the last three contests.

Calgary quickly got back to its winning ways following a stunning loss to Saskatchewan in Week 10. With the 13-point victory against the Blue Bombers, the Stampeders have won seven of eight games by double figures. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four games with an average of 31.8 points scored after it had stayed UNDER in their first five contests this season.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has a 9-1 SU record in its last 10 games against the Eskimos at home and it has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings on its home field. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings overall.

Toronto Argonauts (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7 ½
Total: 52

Game Overview

Toronto has turned to McLeod Bethel-Thompson has its new starting quarterback. Heading into the second half of the season, it decided to add veteran wide receiver Duron Carter to the mix after he was recently released by Saskatchewan. The Argonauts are going to need all the help they can get coming off that unexpected loss to Montreal. Bethel-Thompson did throw for 296 yards and one touchdown in last Friday’s game.

The Tiger-Cats are 2-4 SU in their last six games with a costly 1-4-1 mark ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their first nine games heading into the opener of this East Division home-and-home tilt. Hamilton is an even 2-2 SU at home this season and it has failed to cover in three of those four games. In last Thursday’s squeaker against the Eskimos, Jeramiah Masoli put the ball up 44 times with 27 completions for 419 yards and one score. He was also picked off twice.

Betting Trends

-- Hamilton has a SU 7-3 edge over Toronto in the last 10 meetings of this East Division matchup and it has gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games between the two. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six matchups.

[Udog]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Friday, August 31

Montreal @ Ottawa

Game 641-642
August 31, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
101.155
Ottawa
115.010
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 14
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
by 17
51
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+17); Over


Sunday, September 2

Winnipeg @ Saskatchewan

Game 643-644
September 2, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
113.301
Saskatchewan
114.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Saskatchewan
by 4
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(+4); Over


Monday, September 3

Edmonton @ Calgary

Game 645-646
September 3, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
111.339
Calgary
121.333
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 10
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 7
53
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-7); Under

Toronto @ Hamilton

Game 647-648
September 3, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
104.611
Hamilton
115.083
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 10 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 8
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(-8); Under

[Udog]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Friday, August 31

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MONTREAL (2 - 8) at OTTAWA (6 - 3) - 8/31/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 22-39 ATS (-20.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.
MONTREAL is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 6-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 7-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 2

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WINNIPEG (5 - 5) at SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 4) - 9/2/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) in road games in September games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 72-50 ATS (+17.0 Units) when playing on a Sunday since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 4-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 3

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EDMONTON (6 - 4) at CALGARY (8 - 1) - 9/3/2018, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 3-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-1 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TORONTO (3 - 6) at HAMILTON (4 - 5) - 9/3/2018, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 3-3 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 3-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

CFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Friday, August 31

Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Montreal is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games
Montreal is 2-19 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Montreal's last 12 games
Montreal is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Montreal is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 7 games on the road
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Montreal is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
Ottawa RedBlacks
Ottawa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Ottawa is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Ottawa is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Ottawa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Ottawa is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Montreal


Sunday,September 2

Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Winnipeg is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Winnipeg's last 21 games on the road
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Winnipeg is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Roughriders
Saskatchewan is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Saskatchewan's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 7 games at home
Saskatchewan is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


Monday,September 3

Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Edmonton is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Edmonton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Edmonton's last 13 games on the road
Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Calgary
Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing Calgary
Edmonton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Edmonton is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Edmonton's last 10 games when playing on the road against Calgary
Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Calgary is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Calgary's last 14 games
Calgary is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games at home
Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games at home
Calgary is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Edmonton
Calgary is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Edmonton
Calgary is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Calgary is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Calgary's last 10 games when playing at home against Edmonton


Toronto Argonauts
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games
Toronto is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Toronto is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
Hamilton Tiger-Cats
Hamilton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Hamilton is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 7 games
Hamilton is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 games at home
Hamilton is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games at home
Hamilton is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Hamilton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Hamilton is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Hamilton's last 8 games when playing at home against Toronto


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[Udog]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12


Montreal (2-8) @ Ottawa (6-3) (-16.5, 51.5)— Ottawa is already 2-0 vs the Alouettes this season, winning first meeting 28-18 in Montreal, then 24-17 here three weeks ago- road team covered both those games. Montreal snapped a 6-game losing skid by upsetting Toronto at home LW; Alouettes are 1-4 SU on road; they covered last four away games, with last three road losses by 17-7-16 points. Ottawa is 5-0 when they allow 21 of fewer points, 1-3 when they allow 24+; RedBlacks are 3-1 SU at home, 1-2 as a home favorite. Under is 4-1 in Ottawa road games.

Winnipeg (5-5) @ Saskatchewan (5-4) (-3.5, 54.5)— Winnipeg won five of its last six games in this series. Roughriders scored 40-24 points last two weeks to win both games as underdogs; Saskatchewan is favored for only second time this year; they lost first game SU at home to Montreal. Riders are 4-0 when they score 24+ points, 1-4 when they score less; under is 3-2 in their home games. Blue Bombers allowed 39-44 points in losing their last two games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-2 vs spread as road underdogs.

Edmonton (6-4) @ Calgary (8-1) (-7, 53)— Stampeders won five of last six meetings in this Alberta rivalry, beating Eskimos 32-28 (-5) in LY’s playoffs. Over is 5-2 in last seven series games, 3-0 in last three played here. Calgary is 5-0 at home this year, 3-2 vs spread, with home wins by 14-10-17-9-13 points. Three of their last four games went over. Edmonton lost its last two road games, giving up 31-25 points in losses in Vancouver, Hamilton. Under is 4-2-1 in Eskimos’ last seven games.

Toronto (3-6) @ Hamilton (4-5) (-8, 52)— These teams split their last six meetings; over was 4-1-1 in the games. Argonauts are 0-4 on road this year (under 3-1), scoring 17.5 ppg; they were favored in two of those games; Toronto’s last three games were decided by total of five points- their three wins this year are also by total of five points. Argos are 4-3 as an underdog this season. Ti-Cats won two of last three games overall, split their four home games- they’re 2-4 as a favorite this season. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Through Week 11: Favorites 17-25; Under 25-15-2