Thursday 8/23 Preseason Essentials

[Udog]

Eagles vs Browns NFL preseason odds picks and predictions: Fade injured Philly

Week 3 of the NFL preseason is a dress rehearsal for the regular season for most teams. This week’s exhibition schedule kicks off with a standalone matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.

We break down the best ways to wager on the NFL odds for this preseason game, including quick-hitting bets, props, the total and the pointspread.

*Full odds offerings for NFL preseason games often don't release until closer to kickoff, depending on sportsbook.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3.5, 41.5)

QUICK HITTER

the good news for Eagles backers is that Nick Foles will play “about a half”, according to coach Doug Pederson. The bad news is that pretty much every other starter on offense won’t. Running backs Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement, Donnel Pumphrey, and Darren Sproles are all out, as are wide receivers Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, and Markus Wheaton.

Cleveland is mostly healthy but will play less-talented QB Tyrod Taylor in the first half against what should be a very motivated Eagles defense that got lit up by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots last week. Don’t expect many points in the first half and jump on a low-scoring

PREDICTION: First score of the game to be a field goal

FIRST HALF BET

The Browns invested heavily in the quarterback position by selecting Baker Mayfield first overall. But they also sent strong signals that they’re going to commit to the running game in 2018 by drafting Georgia star Nick Chubb with the third pick of the second round and signing former 49ers starter Carlos Hyde.

This commitment showed last week as the Browns rushed 32 times (including five rushes from their quarterbacks) and attempted just 24 passes. Chubb and Hyde will likely see a lot of handoffs early again this week (20 rushes between the two last week) as the Browns try to become a run-first team. Add in Philly’s lack of talent on offense and the Under in the first half is looking like a solid play.

PREDICTION: First half total: Under

TEAM/PLAYER PROP

Most teams treat the first half of preseason Week 3 as a dress rehearsal, with starters playing most of the first half and backups playing the second half. Philly, however, will have most of its offensive skill position players watching from the sideline with injuries.

Foles will be throwing and handing off to backups in the first half, meaning third-stringer Nate Sudfeld will be playing with skill players at the absolute bottom of the depth chart in the second half. Take the Under on the Eagles team total.

PREDICTION: Eagles team total: Under

FULL GAME TOTAL

The total opened at 42 points and is now down half a point to 41.5. The first half looks like it could be a low-scoring affair, but the second half could be a bit different. That’s when Mayfield, the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner, gets to try and prove he should be the starter while playing against Philly’s backups.

However, Cleveland doesn’t want to put Mayfield in an uncomfortable position and will likely continue to run the ball a lot when he's on the field. There might be more points in the second half than in the first, but the Under for the full game still looks like the smart play.

PREDICTION: Under 41.5

FULL GAME SIDE

After opening as a 2-point underdog, the line has swung five points and Cleveland is now a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia is hurting and just hoping to get to its Week 1 opener without suffering more injuries. Cleveland is healthy and has reason to play its starting offense well into the second half so that Mayfield is surrounded by talent. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five preseason games, and they look like a good bet to cover again Thursday.

PREDICTION: Cleveland -3.5

[Udog]

TNF - Eagles at Browns

Week 3 of the preseason gets going with the defending champs visiting the lone winless team from a year ago as this will likely be the last time fans get to see many of their team's starters until the games start to count for real. That's probably a good thing for Philadelphia fans as they've had plenty of injury scares this entire preseason, and a lot of their projected starters will be held out for this contest too.

How that affects what we see from the Eagles on TNF remains to be seen, but I doubt we see the Eagles coaching staff push things too much for fear of another key body going down.

Cleveland (-3); Total set at 41.5

After making a run to the top overall seed in the NFC and parlaying that into a Super Bowl victory a year ago, the Philadelphia Eagles aren't about to rush things in the preseason just for the sake of getting better. The Eagles coaching staff has a great idea of what they've got in their roster and all the injuries they've suffered this summer are at least not long term in most cases and said players should be ready for September.

However, that same Eagles coaching staff would like to see a bit more effort and progress from the guys that are out there in the preseason as Philly has been blown out in both preseason games so far (albeit by some very good teams in Pittsburgh and New England) as they allowed 30+ points in both defeats. That's a bit of an indictment on this Eagles defensive unit, one that has suffered the fewest injuries on the team and one that came into the year with plenty of question marks as well. So with HC Doug Pederson already stating that he'd like to see his (healthy) starters play at least a half, I do believe we see the Eagles defense look much better than they have all preseason. Yet, the question is whether or not improved play by the Eagles defense will be enough for them to cover this spread.

Personally, I don't believe it will be as the Eagles offense is about as banged up as a unit can be. They are sending backup Nick Foles out there as a “starter” for the majority of the first half – a week after he narrowly missed a scary upper body injury himself – and they are only going to come into the game with two healthy RB's on the roster (Wendell Smallwood and Matt Jones). Neither of those guys are expected to get significant playing time once the games count for real, but they both could end up being the workhorses here.

The Eagles WR depth is still quite thin at this moment and after Foles nearly was lost for awhile last week, I expect plenty of hand offs and running plays from this Eagles team that's just looking to get through this 60 minutes as healthy as can be. Compare all that with a Cleveland team that's basically got ongoing competitions for starting roles at nearly every position and you've got to lay the -3 with the Browns or pass all together on the side.

The total is the wager I'm more interested in making though as with starters on both defensive units likely on the field for at least 30 minutes, points may turn out to be at a premium here. I've already touched on Philly's need to see some significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball which should show up here, but Cleveland's defense has been solid through two weeks as well and I don't see that changing either – especially with Philly's run-heavy, vanilla attack.

Cleveland is already 0-2 O/U in the preseason this year, yet, because of Philly allowing 30+ in both games, the majority of early action on this total (75%) has come in on the high side of this number. But this total has actually dropped a full point since opening at 42.5 despite all that action, and that's a reverse line move I simply can't ignore.

After last week's 19-17 loss at home to Buffalo cashed another 'under' ticket for the Browns, Cleveland is now on a 0-7 O/U run in home games during the preseason the past few years, and regardless of venue the last seven years during “dress rehearsal” Week 3 preseason games, the Browns as an organization are on a 1-4-2 O/U run with final scores averaging 36.8 points.

Seeing this game finish with about 37 points is where I've got this one pegged finishing, and all things considered (situation, trends, reverse line move) it's the best way to attack this game.

Best Bet: Under 41.5 point