Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7


Thursday’s games
TCU lost two of last three games; they were minus-9 in turnovers in those games, and were held to 16-17 points in last two games. Horned Frogs are 2-10-1 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorites. Texas Tech scored 46 ppg in its last three games; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as road underdogs. Road team won last three Texas Tech-TCU games; Tech won two of last three visits here, with both wins by 3 points, the loss was 82-27 in ’14. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Big X home favorites are 3-5 vs spread this season.

Georgia Southern won both its games with Texas State 37-13/28-25, with last meeting in ’15. Eagles are 4-1 this season, 4-0 vs spread; their only loss was 38-7 at Clemson- this is GSU’s first road game since then. GSU covered only one of last five games as road favorites. Texas State is 0-4 vs I-A teams, with only one loss by less than 10 points; Bobcats gave up 327 rushing yards LW is 42-27 home loss to ULL. Under Withers, TSU is 3-8 vs spread as home underdogs. Three of four Georgia Southern games stayed under.

Friday’s games
South Florida is 5-0 this season, despite giving up 38 points to Ga Tech, 42 to UMass; Bulls ran ball for 365 yards LW, after East Carolina outgained them by 116 yards in a 20-13 win. USF won its last two games with Tulsa, 27-20/38-30, with last visit here in ’14; under Strong, Bulls are 2-4 as road favorites. Tulsa is 0-4 vs I-A teams, 2-2 vs spread; all four games stayed under total. Under Montgomery, Golden Hurricane is 1-6 as home underdogs; they’re -6 in turnovers vs I-A teams, giving up 192+ rushing yards in all four games.

Arizona won five of last six games with Utah, but they lost 36-23 in last visit here in ’16. Dogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Arizona is 2-3 vs I-A teams; all five games stayed under total; since ’13, Wildcats are 3-14 vs spread as road underdogs- they’re 3-7 in last ten games as a double digit dog. Khalil Tate hasn’t progressed much as a passer, which hurts. Utah lost two of last three games but pulled upset at Stanford LW; Utes allowed 826 PY in last two games. Since Utah is 9-13 vs spread when laying double digits.

Air Force ended 3-game skid by thumping rival Navy 35-7 LW; they allowed 827 PY in their first two road games- Navy can’t pass. San Diego State won its last seven games with Air Force, winning 30-14/28-9 in last two series games played here. Falcons are 0-2 on road, losing 33-27/42-32; they covered eight of last 11 games as road underdogs. Aztecs pulled a big upset in Boise LW; they’re 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorites. No one has run for more than 119 yards vs San Diego State this year- can Air Force move it enough to cover here?

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Saturday’s best 13 games
Texas A&M is 4-2, but losses are to Alabama/Clemson; Aggies have been minus in turnovers in five of six games but held Arkansas/Kentucky to 1714 points, 55-70 rushing yards in winning last two games— three of their last four games stayed under total. Aggies are 6-4 in last ten games as road favorites. South Carolina scored 37+ points in its wins, 17-10 in losses; under Muschamp, Gamecocks are 3-2 as home underdogs. A&M won its last four games with South Carolina, winning 24-13/52-28 in last two visits here.

Colorado is 5-0 but still getting a TD+ here; Buffaloes lost their last seven games with USC, losing last three visits here, by 4-28-44 points. Colorado hasn’t played a great schedule; they won 33-28 at Nebraska in only road game- all four of their I-A games stayed under. Buffs are 9-5 in last 14 games as road underdogs. USC is 2-7 vs spread in last nine games as home favorites; they’re 3-2 this season, 1-4 vs spread. Trojans were held to 3-14 points in their two losses; they scored 43-39-24 in their wins. Pac-12 home favorites are 4-3 vs spread this season.

Washington hammered Oregon 38-3/70-21 last two years, with Ducks having different coaches both years, and now this year a third HC. Huskies won their last five games since loss to Auburn in opener, allowing 10.2 ppg in their wins- under Pedersen, Washington is 9-7 as road favorites. Oregon is 4-1 this season, scoring 31+ points in all five games; Ducks are 1-4 vs spread in last five games as home underdogs. Oregon gained 443+ yards in all five games; they were -3 in TO’s in their only loss, 38-31 at home to Stanford.

Arkansas is 0-5 vs I-A teams, with three losses by 27+ points- four of those five games stayed under the total. Razorbacks are 8-5 in last 13 games as home underdogs. Arkansas won its last four games with Ole Miss, winning 34-30/30-0 in last two games played here. Rebels scored 38+ points in their four wins, were held to 7-16 in losses to Alabama/LSU- they gained 829 yards in a 70-21 win over a Sun Belt team LW. Ole Miss is 4-9 in its last 13 games as road favorites. SEC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread this year.

Wisconsin is 4-1 with a 28-17 win at Iowa, but a bad home loss to BYU; over last nine years, Badgers are 7-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Wisconsin ran ball for 370 yards vs Nebraska LW, but Cornhuskers threw ball for 407 yards. Michigan won its last five games since an opening loss at Notre Dame; under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 12-11 as home favorites— three of their last four games stayed under. Badgers won three of last four games with Michigan, losing last meeting here 14-7. Big 14 home favorites are 4-4 this season.

West Virginia won its last four games with Iowa State, winning 49-19/37-24 in last two visits to Ames. Mountaineers are 5-0, wth road wins at Tennessee (40-14), Texas Tech (42-34)- they’re 5-2 in last seven games as road favorites. WVU scored 35+ points, threw for 332+ yards in all five I-A games. Cyclones are 2-3 after pulling a big upset (+10) at Oklahoma State LW, with freshman QB Purdy going 18-23/318 passing in his first college start; under Campbell, Iowa State is 6-3-1 as home underdogs.

Iowa won five of last six games with Indiana, winning 35-27 (-7) in last visit here; Hawkeyes gave up 210 rushing yards in their only loss, to Wisconsin- they allowed total of 111 rushing yards in other three I-A games. Iowa’s last three games went over the total. Indiana lost two of its last three games; they’re 2-5 vs spread in last seven games as home underdogs. Hoosiers ran ball for only 29-84 yards in their two losses- they gave up 455 PY in loss to Ohio State last week. Big 14 home underdogs are 3-6 vs spread this year.

Central Florida won its last 11 games with Memphis; they won last three visits here, by 7-18-20 points. Knights covered five of last six games as road favorites- they’re 5-0 against collection of stiffs this season, with 56-17 win at UConn their only road game so far. Memphis is 4-2 despite being favored in every game; they’re 8-4-1 in last 13 games as home underdogs. Tigers allowed 467-496 TY in games vs South Alabama/Tulane; they lost both games when they ran for less than 271 yards. AAC home underdogs are 3-2 vs spread.

Florida won its last four games with Vanderbilt, winning 13-6/34-10 in last two visits here; Gators are off emotional wins over Miss State/LSU, have bye then Georgia game on deck, making this trap game for them. Over last 11 years, Florida is 16-8 as road favorites. Vandy lost its last three I-A games by 5-23-28 points, allowing 249 rushing yards/game; Commodores are 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdogs— all five of their I-A games his season stayed under. SEC home underdogs are 6-4 against spread this season.

Oklahoma State-Kansas State split their last six games overall, their last four meetings in Little Apple; average total in last three series games is 78. OSU is 5-2 in last seven games as road favorites; Cowboys allowed 41-48 points in their losses, 28 or less in their four wins- they won only road game 48-28 at Kansas. K-State lost its last three games, losing last two by total of eight points; they ran ball for 319 yards LW but lost tough 37-34 verdict at Baylor. Since 2011, Wildcats are 10-4 as road underdogs. Big X home underdogs are 4-2 vs spread this year.

Georgia/LSU split their last four meetings; this is Dawgs’ first trip to Baton Rouge since 2008. Georgia is 6-0, with 43-29 win at Missouri the lowest game; their road wins are by 24-14 points. Under Smart, Dawgs are 6-3 as road favorites; Mizzou is only team this year to score more than 17 points vs Georgia. Since 2010, LSU is 14-7 vs spread coming off a loss, 4-2 as home dogs; Tigers lost 27-19 at Florida LW, their first loss in six games- Gators ran ball for 215 yards, would expect Dawgs to try and do same.

Michigan State won three of last four games with Penn State; home side won last three series games. Spartans won two of last three visits to Happy Valley; they’re 3-2 this year, scoring 31+ points in their wins, 13-19 in losses- they were held to 63-96 rushing yards in their losses. MSU’s last three games went over total. Spartans are 8-3 in last 11 games as road underdogs. Nittany Lions had week off after tough 27-26 home loss to Ohio State; over is 4-1 in PSU’s games this year. Under Franklin, Lions are 12-8 vs spread as home favorites.

UCLA is 0-5 in Chip Kelly’s first season here; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 49-21 at Oklahoma, 38-16 at Colorado. Bruins are 3-4 in last seven games as road underdogs- they allowed average of 461 TY in their last four games. UCLA won four of last five games with Cal, losing 36-10 in last visit here; average total in last four series games is 61.3. Golden Bears lost last two games after a 3-0 start, going -6 in turnovers in those two games; Cal is 6-3-1 in its last ten games as home favorites, 10-15 vs spread in game following its last 25 losses.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (3 - 2) at TCU (3 - 2) - 10/11/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TCU is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games after a bye week since 1992.
TCU is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GA SOUTHERN (4 - 1) at TEXAS ST (1 - 4) - 10/11/2018, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, October 11

Texas Tech @ Texas Christian
Texas Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games on the road
Texas Tech is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Texas Christian

Texas Christian
Texas Christian is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Texas Christian is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games

Georgia Southern @ Texas State
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Texas State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas State's last 6 game


*************************


Thursday, October 11

Texas Tech @ TCU

Game 105-106
October 11, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
93.205
TCU
103.318
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 10
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 7
61
Dunkel Pick:
TCU
(-7); Under

Georgia Southern @ Texas State

Game 107-108
October 11, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
76.733
Texas State
61.289
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 15 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 17 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Texas State
(+17 1/2); Over


**************************

Thursday’s games

TCU lost two of last three games; they were minus-9 in turnovers in those games, and were held to 16-17 points in last two games. Horned Frogs are 2-10-1 vs spread in last 13 games as home favorites. Texas Tech scored 46 ppg in its last three games; they’re 9-4 in last 13 games as road underdogs. Road team won last three Texas Tech-TCU games; Tech won two of last three visits here, with both wins by 3 points, the loss was 82-27 in ’14. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Big X home favorites are 3-5 vs spread this season.

Georgia Southern won both its games with Texas State 37-13/28-25, with last meeting in ’15. Eagles are 4-1 this season, 4-0 vs spread; their only loss was 38-7 at Clemson- this is GSU’s first road game since then. GSU covered only one of last five games as road favorites. Texas State is 0-4 vs I-A teams, with only one loss by less than 10 points; Bobcats gave up 327 rushing yards LW is 42-27 home loss to ULL. Under Withers, TSU is 3-8 vs spread as home underdogs. Three of four Georgia Southern games stayed under.


********************************

Thursday, Oct. 11

TEXAS TECH at TCU...TCU 2-11-1 as Fort Worth chalk since 2016, 11-21-1 overall vs. spread since 2016. Tech 9-4 vs. spread last 13 as visiting dog.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at TROY STATE...GS 5-0 vs. spread in 2018, 7-1 last 8 since late 2017. Also covered last four as dog. Troy 4-0-1 vs. line last five this season and has covered last 4 in 2018 but is 0-4 vs. line last 4 vs. Eagles.
Georgia Southern, based on team and series trends.


*************************************



Texas Tech at TCU
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night game is a prominent Big XII clash as Texas Tech and TCU face off. While both teams are closer to the bowl bubble than the Big XII title game at this point in the season, this will be a key game in the conference pecking order not to mention one of the main rivalry games of the season for both squads.

Match-up: Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Christian Horned Frogs
Venue: At Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 11, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: TCU -7, Over/Under 62
Last Meeting: 2017, TCU (-7) 27, at Texas Tech 3

This line on this game was released late with questionable quarterback situations for both teams. Since the ‘West Texas Championship’ renewed on an annual basis in 2012 these squad have each won the Saddle Trophy three times with the road team now winning the past three years.

Both TCU and Texas Tech are knotted at 1-1 in league play and while West Virginia and Texas are both 3-0 on top of the standings, those teams will need to face off and both have some difficult hurdles remaining as it is still a wide-open race for a spot in the Big XII title game. The Big XII has Texas back in the national spotlight rising to the top 10 of the polls but the conference as a whole is likely clinging to a long shot 13-0 run for West Virginia in regard to the national playoffs with Oklahoma upset last week.

TCU looked the part of a Big XII contender and possible national sleeper with a 2-0 start and an 8-point lead over Ohio State well into the third quarter in a big mid-September game in Arlington. The Buckeyes scored three touchdowns in four minutes to send TCU’s season spiraling in the other direction. The Frogs lost to the Texas the following week with a combined seven turnovers in those two defeats before getting back on track in late September with a narrow 17-14 victory hosting Iowa State.

A critical sixth season for Kliff Kingsbury coaching his alma mater started poorly with a 24-7 1st quarter deficit against Ole Miss in Houston on the opening Saturday, with starting quarterback McLane Carter injured. Freshman Alan Bowman was handed the offense from there and posted big numbers including leading notable wins over Houston and Oklahoma State. Bowman was seriously injured and hospitalized after taking a hit in the 42-34 loss to West Virginia with the Red Raiders down to sophomore Jett Duffey for the duration of that game. All three quarterbacks may be available for this week’s game.

For TCU sophomore quarterback Shawn Robinson has had mixed results with six interceptions in four FBS games but offering big play potential in the air and on the ground. Robinson was injured late in the win over Iowa State with a shoulder issue on his non-throwing arm and while he has been cleared to return, Gary Patterson has hinted that he may not start this week with sophomore Michael Collins likely to play in the game as well. Collins has only thrown 14 passes this season and not in any meaningful moments.

Texas Tech was anticipating being a stronger defensive team this season as after years of being consistently involved in shootouts, the Red Raiders improved dramatically in the defensive numbers last season. This year the positive gains haven’t been there despite an experienced unit led by linebacker and future NFL draft pick Dakota Allen. Texas Tech has allowed nearly 450 yards per game and 31 points per game including allowing 42 or more points in three of four FBS games.

Patterson has a reputation for defense and this year’s team has allowed fewer than 21 points per game, holding three of five foes to 14 or fewer points. Texas and Ohio State combined to score 71 points against the Horned Frogs but a 7-0 turnover deficit in those games contributed significantly. TCU has only surrendered 178 passing yards per game this season and that will be the key matchup against a Red Raiders offense averaging 408 passing yards per game. TCU is 14th nationally allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt while Texas Tech has allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt although opposing quarterbacks have completed below 56 percent of throws against both teams.

With Oklahoma up next this is a critical spot for TCU as a 1-3 Big XII start would be realistic with a loss this week. TCU will still have to play in Morgantown in November as a bowl bid could even be cast into a doubt for a squad that was projected to compete for a Big XII title after being the runner-up last season. The stakes may be higher for Texas Tech who still has Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas on the schedule. If the Red Raiders fall to 3-3 overall this week they might be in line for another dramatic run in late November with Kingsbury in danger of missing a bowl game for the third time in six seasons.

Last season: TCU was 8-2 heading to Lubbock last November in the game following a 38-20 loss at Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs turned in a great performance with a 27-3 win on the road. The defense did the heavy lifting as TCU managed only 289 yards of offense and led just 10-3 late in the third quarter. TCU completed only six passes in the game in what was Robinson’s first career start and then added a late defensive score. That loss left Texas Tech at 5-6 but they beat Texas in the season finale to earn a bowl bid. The three-point showing was the lowest output for Texas Tech since losing 12-3 at TCU in 2006.

Historical Trends:

Texas Tech is 14-8 S/U and 14-10 ATS in this series since 1980, covering in 13 of the past 19 meetings.

TCU has won S/U in three of the past four games but has lost S/U and ATS in two of the past three home games in the series.

TCU has won S/U in eight consecutive home games since the start of last season but is just 3-12 ATS at home since the start of the 2016 season.

TCU is 1-5 S/U and ATS in six instances since 2016 as a home favorite of 10 or fewer points.

Texas Tech is 22-14 ATS on the road since 2011 including going 8-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2015 with five S/U upsets.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TTU at TCU 07:30 PM
TCU -7.5
U 58.5

GASO at TXST 07:30 PM
GASO -17.0
O 52.5

[StarDust Bum]

Duffey's QB draw for score pushes Texas Tech past TCU 17-14
October 11, 2018

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) Jett Duffey scored on a 38-yard quarterback draw with seven minutes left, holding on to the ball just long enough for the go-ahead score in Texas Tech's 17-14 victory over TCU on Thursday night.

Duffey took off on the first play after a punt, and the touchdown stood after a replay review. The ball rolled forward through the end zone after defender Trevon Moehrig-Woodard knocked it loose right at the goal line.

It was the third time the Red Raiders (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) won in their last four trips to Fort Worth. They needed multiple overtimes in each of the previous two wins.

TCU (3-3, 1-2) had its final drive ended when Shawn Robinson desperately scrambled from one side of the field to the other on fourth-and-1 before the ball appeared to slip out of his hands and was intercepted by Adrian Frye in the final minute.

Duffey finished 13-of-24 passing for 190 yards, including a 62-yard touchdown in the third quarter to Ja'Deion High, who was wide open at the 30 and ran the rest of the way. Duffey also had 16 carries for 83 yards.

Robinson was 26-of-45 passing for 290 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

The Frogs were up 14-10 when KaVontae Turpin streaked past a defender and into the end zone to make a 31-yard TD catch with 11 minutes left. Turpin had six catches for 120 yards.

THE TAKEAWAY

Texas Tech: The Red Raiders were held to 353 total yards, well below their national-best average of 591 yards a game. They had also scored 48 points a game. ... Duffey, the third quarterback to play for Tech this season, was inconsistent at times but made enough big plays. His start came with the other two quarterbacks still hurt.

TCU: The Horned Frogs had their eight-game home winning streak snapped. They had 411 total yards, but couldn't overcome mistakes. They had three turnovers, including an interception in the end zone, and had a missed field goal attempt.

UP NEXT

Texas Tech is home Oct. 20 against Kansas.

TCU plays its third consecutive home game Oct. 20 against No. 11 Oklahoma.


***************************


Georgia Southern holds off Texas State 15-13
October 11, 2018

SAN MARCOS, Texas (AP) Wesley Fields rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown, helping Georgia Southern beat Texas State 15-13 on Thursday night.

Georgia Southern led 15-0 before Texas State's second-half comeback.

Texas State got on the board with 59 seconds left in the third quarter. Keenen Brown ran for 61 yards before getting tripped up at the 4 and he punched it in on second-and-goal to pull to 15-7.

Jeremiah Haydel caught a 29-yard pass in the corner of the end zone to make it 15-13 with 2:20 left, but the Bobcats' 2-point conversion attempt fell incomplete. Georgia Southern recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock.

Fields powered in a 5-yard touchdown run to open the scoring in the second quarter for Georgia Southern (5-1, 3-0 Sun Belt), which has won four straight.

Freshman Tyler Vitt, who made his first start last week, threw for 132 yards with one touchdown and one interception for Texas State (1-5, 1-2).

[StarDust Bum]

college football best bets aug-sept.

total..........185 - 181-0.......50.54%....-64.35

best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

total.....................77 - 72............-11.500...........49 - 40.............+25.00..........126 - 112.......+10.50

PODS............RECORD.............0 - 2....................TOTALS....................... .-11.00

************************

College Football Best Bets For October


Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

10/11/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/06/2018 32-39-0 45.07% -54.50
10/05/2018 1-5-0 16.66% -22.50
10/04/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

Totals............38-49-0........43.67%.....-79.50



best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

10/11/2018............0 - 2................-11.00............1 - 1................-0.50................-11.50
10/09/2018............0 - 1................-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50................-11.00
10/06/2018............6 - 18..............-49.50.............8 - 6...............+7.00...............-42.50
10/05/2018............0 - 3...............-16.50..............1 - 2..............-6.00.................-22.50
10/04/2018............2 - 0...............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............+20.00

Totals....................8 - 24...............-72.50............12 - 10..............+5.00..............-67.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

NFL trends for Week 6:

— Texans are 2-8 vs spread in their last ten games.

— Pittsburgh is 3-8 vs spread in its last 11 games.

— Tennessee is 11-3-1 vs spread coming off its last 15 losses.

— New England is 17-6-3 in last 26 games as home favorites.

— Buccaneers are 8-3 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games.

— Kansas City covered its last nine games.

Quote of the Day
“Ron Adams told me that Tex (Winter) knew more about the history of the game and the fundamentals of the game than anybody he had ever met in his life. I was lucky enough to play for Tex for five years and learn from him.

A lot of what I do here with the Warriors is patterned from things I learned from Tex. What a life he lived. He was a unique individual and touched thousands of lives. Today, the news was tough. Tex was a special person to me and everyone that played for him.”
Steve Kerr

Friday’s quiz
Who did the Cincinnati Bengals beat the last time they won a playoff game, in 1990?

Thursday’s quiz
Milwaukee Brewers were last in a World Series in 1982, losing to St Louis in 7 games.

Wednesday’s quiz
Cam Newton played college football for both Florida and Auburn.

**************************

Friday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……..

13) If you like/love basketball, the specials that ESPN is putting out on the history of the game seem to be very well done; saw a couple of them this week, one piece about the finals of the 1972 Olympic basketball tournament, another on the first ABA dunk contest. Lot of history there; it is well worth your time if you’re a basketball person.

12) My hotel room at the Golden Nugget had free earplugs on the nightstand; didn’t come close to needing them until tonight, when there was a concert in the park next to the hotel. Very loud, but music from the 80’s, so I passed on using the earplugs.

There is also a tattoo convention at the hotel this weekend, and a ton of motorcyclists; not sure if those two things are related, but the hallways look like a Duck Dynasty class reunion.

11) Highly recommend the Golden Nugget by the way; great pool, food places are real good and people here are real nice. Its been a fun vacation.

10) New restaurants I’ve tried/enjoyed for the last eight days in Las Vegas:
— The Grotto (in Golden Nugget). Very good pizza and meatball sliders
— Claim Jumper (in Golden Nugget). Open 24 hours, lot of good choices.
— Chicago Joe’s. Old-fashioned Italian place that actually used to be someone’s house. Very good food, excellent prices; it is right next to a very sketchy-looking apartment complex.
— Pizza Rock— Really good pizza, lot of TV’s, a little expensive.
— Hash House a Go-Go (in Plaza Hotel). Big portions, very good scrambled eggs.

9) Lakers-Warriors was an unusually intense exhibition game Wednesday; was watching end of the game in the sportsbook— guy on the Lakers stole the ball, went in for a dunk, and the only other guy in there with me says excitedly “That put the game over the total!!!”

If you’re wagering on totals in NBA exhibition games, you’ve got a better stomach than I do.

8) Doug McDermott is playing for the Indiana Pacers this season, 5th team he’ll play for in his fifth NBA season; he was also traded by the Nuggets the night he got drafted in 2014, so thats six teams for him in 4+ years.

7) Eagles 34, Giants 13— Philly evened its record at 3-3 in game where their first two TD drives were only 16-44 yards. Giants have a porous offensive line, an aging, immobile QB and a 1-5 record, which should make the back page of the NY tabloids interesting.

6) Why teams win/lose; looking back at the 2009 NBA Draft:

2nd pick— Memphis, Hasheem Thabeet
3rd pick— Oklahoma City, James Harden

6th pick— Minnesota, Jonny Flynn
7th pick— Golden State, Stephen Curry

9th pick— New York, Jordan Hill
10th pick— Toronto, DeMar DeRozan

5) One weekend each year, the NBA should use red, white and blue basketballs in its games to honor the ABA, which closed shop after the 1975-76 season.

Lot of terrific players in the ABA (George Gervin, Julius Erving, Rick Barry, Artis Gilmore, Dan Issel, even Wilt Chamberlain briefly). Their teams played an exciting style of ball.

4) Shahid Khan owns the Jacksonville Jaguars; he is trying to buy Wembley Stadium in London and if he does, he may have the Jaguars play half their home games there every year. Would this be a good thing for the NFL? For the Jaguars? We may find out.

3) Chicago Cubs fired hitting coach Chili Davis Thursday; if the Phillies or some other team has half a brain, they’ll sign Davis— he’s a damn good hitting coach.

2) NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves cancelled practice and team activities Thursday, after the circus that was Wednesday, with Jimmy Butler taking the four worst players in camp and then beating the five starters in a scrimmage, while he yelled at the team’s coach and GM.

1) Former Ole Miss football coach Hugh Freeze will be offensive coordinator for the Arizona team in the new AAF next spring. Lot of big names will be coaching in the 8-team league.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, October 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S FLORIDA (5 - 0) at TULSA (1 - 4) - 10/12/2018, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 1-0 against the spread versus S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (3 - 3) at UTAH (3 - 2) - 10/12/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 86-129 ATS (-55.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AIR FORCE (2 - 3) at SAN DIEGO ST (4 - 1) - 10/12/2018, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO ST is 1-0 straight up against AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Friday, October 12

South Florida @ Tulsa
South Florida
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
South Florida is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road

Tulsa
Tulsa is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Tulsa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Air Force @ San Diego State
Air Force
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Air Force's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Air Force's last 7 games on the road

San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games when playing at home against Air Force
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Arizona @ Utah
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road

Utah
Utah is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Utah is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home

-------------------------------------------------------


Friday, October 12

South Florida @ Tulsa

Game 109-110
October 12, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Florida
83.525
Tulsa
79.356
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 4
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 7 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+7 1/2); Over

Arizona @ Utah

Game 111-112
October 12, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
91.377
Utah
95.627
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 4 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 13 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+13 1/2); Under

Air Force @ San Diego St

Game 113-114
October 12, 2018 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Air Force
84.133
San Diego St
93.028
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 11 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Air Force
(+11 1/2); Under


-------------------------------------------


Friday’s games

South Florida is 5-0 this season, despite giving up 38 points to Ga Tech, 42 to UMass; Bulls ran ball for 365 yards LW, after East Carolina outgained them by 116 yards in a 20-13 win. USF won its last two games with Tulsa, 27-20/38-30, with last visit here in ’14; under Strong, Bulls are 2-4 as road favorites. Tulsa is 0-4 vs I-A teams, 2-2 vs spread; all four games stayed under total. Under Montgomery, Golden Hurricane is 1-6 as home underdogs; they’re -6 in turnovers vs I-A teams, giving up 192+ rushing yards in all four games.

Arizona won five of last six games with Utah, but they lost 36-23 in last visit here in ’16. Dogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Arizona is 2-3 vs I-A teams; all five games stayed under total; since ’13, Wildcats are 3-14 vs spread as road underdogs- they’re 3-7 in last ten games as a double digit dog. Khalil Tate hasn’t progressed much as a passer, which hurts. Utah lost two of last three games but pulled upset at Stanford LW; Utes allowed 826 PY in last two games. Since Utah is 9-13 vs spread when laying double digits.

Air Force ended 3-game skid by thumping rival Navy 35-7 LW; they allowed 827 PY in their first two road games- Navy can’t pass. San Diego State won its last seven games with Air Force, winning 30-14/28-9 in last two series games played here. Falcons are 0-2 on road, losing 33-27/42-32; they covered eight of last 11 games as road underdogs. Aztecs pulled a big upset in Boise LW; they’re 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as home favorites. No one has run for more than 119 yards vs San Diego State this year- can Air Force move it enough to cover here?


----------------------------------------------------


Friday, Oct. 12


SOUTH FLORIDA at TULSA...USF 4-7 vs. points last ten since late 2017. Bulls 2-5 vs. line last seven laying points away from Tampa in reg. season. Tulsa however just 1-7 last 8 as home dog.
Slight to South Florida, based on team trends.


ARIZONA at UTAH...Utes 5-1 as home chalk since last season. Home team has won and covered last three in series. Cats on 3-7-1 spread skid since late 2017, also 2-10 last 12 as visiting dog. Sumlin teams are 4-9-2 last 15 as dog.
Utah, based on team and series trends.


AIR FORCE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Calhoun 15-6-1 last 22 as dog since 2014. Though Aztecs have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Rocky Long, however, just 2-8 last 10 as home chalk.
Slight to San Diego State, based on series trends.


-------------------------------------



Arizona at Utah
Brian Edwards

Matchup: Arizona at Utah
Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
TV/Time: ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET

In multiple columns, guest radio spots and on my Games Galore podcast throughout the summer, I spoke at length about how Arizona’s Kevin Sumlin and Mississippi State’s Joe Moorhead were walking into the best new coaching gigs in terms of being able to win right away. Well, here we are in mid-October, and Moorhead’s fresh off a huge win over Auburn to avoid as three-game losing streak.

As for Sumlin, his Arizona team (3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread) is a double-digit road underdog at Utah on Friday night. The Wildcats have quite a few games remaining in which they’ll be underdogs and it appears they’ll be fortunate just to go bowling.

As of early Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Utah (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) installed as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 50.5. UA was available on the money line for a +415 return (risk $100 to win $415).

Utah is off its best performance of the season, going to The Farm in Palo Alto and dominating Stanford in a 40-21 victory as a four-point road underdog. The 61 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 45-point total in the Utes’ highest-scoring game of the season.

The game turned on Jaylon Johnson’s 100-yard pick-six early in the second quarter that gave Kyle Whittingham’s squad a 14-0 advantage. Zach Moss, who had a seven-yard TD run to allow Utah to draw first blood late in the opening quarter, ripped off a 35-yard TD run to put Utah ahead 21-0 late in the second quarter.

Trailing 27-7 midway through the third quarter, Stanford scored back-to-back touchdowns to trim the deficit to 27-21 with more than 16 minutes remaining. Matt Gay’s 34-yard field goal put Utah back into a two-possession advantage. Then with 7:12 left, QB Tyler Huntley found Samson Nauca on a 57-yard scoring strike. Gay’s 37-yard FG put the game on ice with 3:34 remaining.

Utah played turnover-free football and forced four Stanford turnovers. Huntley completed 17-of-21 passes for 199 yards and one TD without an interception. Moss had 160 rushing yards and two TDs on 20 attempts, while Nacua had a pair of catches for 70 yards and one TD. Britain Covey had six catches for 70 yards.

The win at Stanford allowed Utah to avoid a three-game losing streak and remain alive in the Pac-12 South with a 1-2 league record. The Utes started the season with a 41-10 home win over Weber State before winning 17-6 at No. Illinois. However, they lost 21-7 vs. Washington as four-point home underdogs before dropping a 28-24 decision as 1.5-point road favorites at Washington State.

Moss and Huntley are the catalyst for the Utah offense. Moss has rushed for 549 yards and six TD while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He also has five receptions for 30 yards and one TD. Huntley has connected on 62.4 percent of his throws for 994 yards with a 5/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 143 yards and a pair of scores.

Covey is Huntley’s favorite target, hauling in 32 receptions for 328 yards. Nacua has caught 13 balls for 146 yards and one TD.

Utah is 26-23-1 ATS as a home favorite dating back to the start of the 2008 campaign. We should also note the Utes’ outstanding special-teams players. Gay, the junior kicker, was a first-team All-American and the Lou Groza Award winner in 2017. Senior punter Mitch Wishnowsky was a second-team All-American last year, but he was a first-team All-American choice in ’16 when he won the Ray Guy Award. Wishnowsky is averaging 44.0 yards per punt this year.

Utah is ranked 10th in the nation in total defense, third at defending the run and 18th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up an average of 17.2 PPG.

Senior LB Chase Hansen is the leader of the Utes’ stop unit. He has produced 43 tackles, seven tackles for loss, three sacks, one QB hurry and one interception that went for a 40-yard pick six to put the No. Illinois game away.

Sumlin’s tenure started with back-to-back losses both SU and ATS, including a 28-23 loss to BYU as an 11.5-point home favorite. In Week 2, Arizona was trounced 45-18 at Houston as a 3.5-point road underdog. The Wildcats would bounce back to win 62-31 vs. Southern Utah and 35-14 at Oregon State.

Since then, Arizona lost a 24-20 decision to USC as a 3.5-point home underdog and then beat California 24-17 last week as a two-point home underdog. Sumlin’s bunch was extremely fortunate to beat the Golden Bears, who enjoyed a 25-13 advantage in first downs and a 476-265 edge in total offense.

So, how the hell did Arizona find a way to win? Well, it needs to hand out a no-look assist with some behind-the-back mustard on it to former South Carolina QB Brandon McIlwain, who threw three interceptions. Two of those were of the pick-six variety in the second half.

Trailing 10-0, McIlwain put Cal-Berkeley in front 14-10 at intermission on TD runs of 25 and 23 yards in the second quarter. However, with 3:19 left in the third quarter, UA’s Azizi Hearn intercepted McIlwain and went 34 yards to the house to put the Wildcats ahead 17-14.

Then with 3:13 remaining, Arizona’s Scottie Young produced a 24-yard pick-six. Cal added a 35-yard FG with 16 ticks left to provide the final score. In addition to the 14 points it scored, the UA defense also had a fumble recovery and a pair of stops on fourth-down plays.

Arizona junior QB Khalil Tate was nothing short of sensational last season, averaging 9.2 YPC while rushing for 1,411 yards and 12 TDs despite not getting steady playing time until October. To say Tate’s production has slipped this year would be quite the understatement.

Tate has run for just 110 yards and two TDs with a 2.5 YPC average. He has completed 54.0 percent of his passes for 1,412 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio. RB J.J. Taylor leads the Wildcats with 600 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.8 YPC average. Gary Brightwell has run for 308 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC.

Tate mostly looks to three different targets. Shawn Pointdexter has 21 receptions for 407 yards and two TDs, while Shun Brown has 27 catches for 342 yards and three TDs. Tony Ellison has 17 grabs for 311 yards and three TDs.

Arizona is ranked 99th out of 130 FBS teams in total defense. The Wildcats are 103rd at defending the run and 70th in scoring ‘D,’ giving up 26.5 PPG.

Since 2013, Arizona has limped to an abysmal 4-14 spread record in 18 games as a road underdog.

The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Utes, 1-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 43.0 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 for Arizona, 2-0 in its road assignments. The Wildcats saw their lone ‘over’ appearance in the blowout win over FCS foe, Southern Utah. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 56.8 PPG.

From 2012-15, Arizona won four games in a row over Utah both SU and ATS. Since then, however, Utah has won back-to-back games over the Wildcats both SU and ATS. The Utes won 36-23 as 9.5-point home favorites in 2016.

When this rivalry was resumed in Tucson last year, Utah won a 30-24 decision as a 4.5-point road underdog. This was before Tate was inserted into the lineup ahead of former QB Brandon Dawkins, who threw for 248 yards and ran for 90 but was intercepted three times. Huntley completed 8-of-9 passes for 98 yards and one TD without an interception. Moss rushed for 73 yards on 14 attempts.

Kickoff for Friday’s Pac-12 South showdown is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--There are two other televised games on Friday’s card. Tulsa will play host to unbeaten South Florida at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN, and San Diego State will take on Air Force as a double-digit home favorite at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS Sports College Network.

--USF (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) was listed as a seven-point favorite at Tulsa as of early Thursday afternoon. The Bulls are 1-1 ATS in a pair of road situations, winning 25-19 at Illinois as 14-point ‘chalk’ and capturing a 58-42 triumph at UMass as 15.5-point favorites last week. USF is 2-4 ATS in six games as a road favorite since Charlie Strong took over in 2017. Tulsa beat Central Arkansas by a 38-27 count in its opener, but it has lost four games in a row since then. The Golden Hurricane hasn’t been getting blown out and has covered as a double-digit underdog twice, including a 28-21 loss at Texas as a 22.5-point ‘dog.

--San Diego State is still playing without starting QB Christian Chapman and star RB Juwan Washington. Nevertheless, Rocky Long’s club has won four consecutive games since losing 31-10 at Stanford in its season opener. The Aztecs beat Arizona State 28-21 as five-point home underdogs and then went to the smurf turf and knocked off Boise State. 19-13 as 13.5-point road underdogs last week. As of early Thursday afternoon, most spots had San Diego State listed as 11-point home favorites with a total of 43.5 or 44. Air Force (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) ended a three-game losing streak last week by blasting Navy 35-7 as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Falcons, who have seen the ‘under’ go 4-1, are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in a pair of road outings. They lost 33-27 at FAU but covered as eight-point ‘dogs, but they failed to cover by the hook in a 42-32 loss at Utah State as 9.5-point puppies.

--Boston College star RB missed last week’s 28-23 loss at N.C. State nursing a sprained ankle. Nevertheless, the Eagles took the cash as 6.5-point underdogs in Raleigh. BC is 4-2 both SU and ATS and as of Thursday afternoon, the Eagles were 13.5-point home favorites for a 12:30 Eastern kick vs. Louisville on Saturday. Dillon remains ‘questionable’ and will likely be a game-time decision versus the Cardinals, who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS and can’t afford to fire Bobby Petrino even if they desperately desired to do so. Dillon has rushed for 652 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC.

--BYU has named true freshman QB Zach Wilson as its starter vs. Hawaii. Wilson has appeared in only two games this year in relief of Tanner Mangum. He completed 3-of-4 throws for 52 yards and one TD without an interception in mop-up duty during last week’s 45-20 home loss to Utah State. As for the Warriors, they went to great lengths to keep star QB Cole McDonald’s foot injury under wraps last week. In fact, Nick Rolovich sent another player out in McDonald’s jersey (with his name on it, obviously) to warm up prior to last week’s 17-13 home win over Wyoming. McDonald didn’t play but is listed as ‘probable’ this week (however, I’m not implying gamblers should trust that status). McDonald has been nothing short of sensational, throwing for 2,100 yards with an incredible 24/2 TD-INT ratio. As of early Thursday afternoon, the Cougars were installed as 11.5-point home favorites.

--Toledo QB Mitchell Guadagni (head) is ‘questionable’ at Eastern Michigan. Guadagni has 745 passing yards and a 10/1 TD-INT ratio. The Rockets have seen the ‘over’ go 5-0 this year. They’re one or 1.5-point road favorites with a total of 63.5. Since winning outright at Purdue on a walk-off FG in Week 2, EMU has lost four consecutive one-possession games in a row. The Eagles, who are 4-2 ATS, lost 23-20 at San Diego State in overtime in Week 4. Next, they dropped a 26-23 decision to No. Illinois in triple overtime. EMU rallied for a backdoor cover with a last-minute TD in last week’s 27-24 loss at Western Michigan as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Eagles have seen the ‘under’ hit in three straight outings.

--Iowa State owns a 6-3-1 spread record in 10 games as a home underdog during Matt Campbell’s three-year tenure. The Cyclones, who are off a 48-42 upset win at Oklahoma State as 10-point underdogs, were listed as 6.5-point home ‘dogs to West Virginia as of early Thursday afternoon. Campbell has named Brock Purdy as his starting QB this week with Kyle Kempt (‘doubtful’) not quite ready to return from the knee injury sustained in the team’s opener. ISU has an open date after hosting WVU. Purdy, a true freshman who had only appeared in one game and not yet attempted a pass before being inserted into the lineup last week in Stillwater, torched the Cowboys by completing 18-of-23 passes for 318 yards and four TD with only one interception. He also rushed for a team-best 84 yards and one TD on 19 carries. However, the Cyclones might be without star RB David Montgomery, who is ‘questionable’ against the Mountaineers due to an upper-body injury.

--Disgraced former Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has been hired as the new offensive coordinator for the Arizona Hotshots of the new Alliance of American Football league that starts this spring. Freeze will work under Arizona head coach Rick Neuheisel, who is the former head coach at UCLA, Washington and Colorado.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, OCTOBER 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USF at TLSA 07:00 PM
TLSA +9.5
O 61.0

AFA at SDSU 09:00 PM
AFA +11.0
U 44.0

ARIZ at UTAH 10:00 PM
UTAH -15.0
U 52.5

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 7

There weren't too many things that went well for this piece a week ago, as those early line moves on ASU/Colorado 'over' never came close to cashing, while the 'under' action for Michigan State was all washed away except for those that were able to get a push on that opener of 48.

Even my Best Bet came up short in BC/NC State, so hopefully you were able to avoid some of that damage. That 'under' in the Michigan State seemed destined to lose for those following line moves and as I said in that piece, I am glad I sat on the sidelines there.

A new week brings new prospects though and hopefully the totals I've isolated for discussion this week can bring more fruitful results, so let's get right to work:

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

#10 UCF vs Memphis: Open: 78 – Current: 81

I've long been a proponent of “siding with the crazy side” when it comes to totals wagering – ie take the 'over' on totals that appear to be crazily high – but these days it's become harder and harder to define what exactly a “crazy” total is for a football game. Seeing totals in the high-70's and low 80's is something we see a handful or more times a year now, as it's slowly started to creep into normalcy here.

Now there is no question we can trust this UCF offense to pull their own weight in terms of scoring 40+ here as this team has averaged 48.6 points per game offensively. The Knights have become a victim of their own success in the betting market though – specifically with totals – because all of those points scored has just let to a 2-3 O/U record. That is partially on the defense as they seem to be holding the fort more often these days, and with just 24.5 points allowed per game this year, maybe we should expect UCF to slow down this Memphis attack somewhat.

Memphis will be ready for a shootout if that's what it ends up being, as they average 46.2 points per game themselves, while their defense comes in allowing 17.7 a game. Granted, neither defensive side has gone up against a talented offense like they'll see here, but doing some cross comparisons with those points per game numbers (UCF offense vs Memphis defense and vice versa), you come up with a 35-33 score in favor of the underdog home side.

More importantly, that final score is 10 points below the original number and 13 points below the current one. That's quite a spread of value on that general basis alone, and it's enough to keep me from following this move and expecting this total to get surpassed. But like I said before, I'm not really that interested in the 'under' either as the “crazy side” could come in here, especially if it's a tight game late and the possibility of OT is still on the table. These two teams might not need extra time to get 'over' this number, but it's not a move I'm interested in following.

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Michigan State vs #8 Penn State: Open 56.5 – Current: 53

Now this is a move I am interested in following because 53 is still a key number in totals to go low on (for 31-21 or 28-24 type scores), and because it's Michigan State involved again and I do side with this general consensus that they should be an 'under' minded team.

Seeing a Michigan State total take another leap down was something I expected given how last week's move on the 'under' was basically spoiled by poor final half of the 3rd quarter. 21 points were scored in those final seven minutes of the 3rd frame, and even then, it took a TD in the final three minutes for that opening number to get 'pushed' on, while bettors getting to the 'over' late got to cash a ticket. Whether it was a tough beat or not in the end, the reality is that this Michigan State team is one that should have trouble scoring all year long and has no other option but to rely on a very stout defense to do all the heavy lifting. That's the generic recipe for an 'under' team – especially when they are on the road – and it's the result I do expect to see from this Michigan State/Penn State tilt.

For one, Michigan State hasn't allowed 30 or more points in any of their last four games overall, and in their two games on the road they've given up 16 and 21 points respectively, and they LOST one of those games. If that doesn't speak to both Michigan State's defensive play as well as their offensive play, I don't know what will, as this is not a team you can trust to score 17 points against any type of quality foe.

Penn State is a quality foe whether they deserve to be ranked in the Top 10 now or not, and having had their season in 2017 spoiled by a road loss as a 10-point favorite in Michigan State last year, this is a game the Nittany Lions have had circled.

So while the 'over' has cashed in four straight games between these two, three of those four games closed with totals at 47.5 or less. The last time they played at Penn State it was nearly an identical scenario as this year's game (Penn State was -11, Total: 53.5), and while the game did sail 'over' on the 45-12 Penn State win, it was a 10-6 game at half and Penn State needed to outscore Michigan State 35-0 in the final 30 minutes to just get 'over' that total.

I don't think we see that type of scoring outburst late this time around and anything at 53 or higher I'd gladly follow here.

Best Total Bet for Week 7: Middle Tennessee vs. FIU Over 56.5

This week I'm heading to the first place showdown between FIU and Middle Tennessee as both teams look to remain perfect in Conference USA play. This total has taken some 'under' money earlier this week as I assume some bettors look at the stakes of this matchup and project it with a playoff-like atmosphere, but that never seems to be the case when these two teams square off.

The O/U record between these teams the past six meetings is 4-1-1 O/U and that lone 'under' came in a 48-0 blowout win with the total closing at 49. Last year's push on 54 total points wouldn't help us on the 'over' play this year, but we had 77 and 76-point games in the two years prior and that's more of the style of game I think we get here.

For one, FIU has scored an average of 48.6 points per home game this year, and although that number is clearly skewed based on the level of competition (games against UMass and FCS Arkansas Pine-Bluff), this Panthers team can score at home and should be able to at least threaten the 30-point mark in this contest. After all, Middle Tennessee does give up 36 points per game on the road this year.

Secondly, Middle Tennessee is looking for more consistency in their offensive play right now and they are hoping that last week's breakthrough of 34 points scored @ Marshall was the start of them turning the corner in that regard. This FIU defense can be had, and considering the 'over' has gone 5-0-1 in Middle Tennessee's last six trips to FIU, the Blue Raiders program knows they've got to be prepared to win a shootout on this field.

With Middle Tennessee on a 10-4 O/U run after covering the point spread, and FIU on a 13-5-1 O/U run after failing to cover the point spread, this game seemingly has quite a few things lining up for the 'over' here and it's a play I can't pass up in Week 7.

[StarDust Bum]

Essentials - Week 7
Tony Mejia

You know it's October when the wind start picking up, the leaves start changing colors and the college football schedule starts bearing more gifts. There are a number of games that will be among their conference's top matchups for the entire season this weekend. Here's what you need to know about the top tilts:

Georgia (-7/50.5) at LSU, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: This is a graduation game of sorts for the unbeaten Bulldogs. Win and they’ve made it to their bye week unscathed, avoiding three dangerous road obstacles. Winning in each Columbia, South Carolina and Missouri, is no picnic, but conquering Death Valley, especially this season, makes LSU like the boss on a video game level. Lose and you’re at the mercy of the BCS selection committee going forward, not to mention guaranteeing a long bye week before the Cocktail Party against Florida.

The Gators turned back LSU last weekend to keep this from becoming a battle of unbeatens, knocking around Tigers QB Joe Burrow the way no team had previously. We get to see how he bounces back from his first career loss after throwing his first interceptions of the season, the last of which was returned for six. Georgia and LSU don’t play often, so this will be the first meeting since 2013 and first in Baton Rouge since ’09. Kirby Smart ran into the Tigers as a divisional rival when he was defensive coordinator at Alabama, and with Dave Aranda running things on the LSU side, points could be hard to come by. Ed Orgeron has taken some heat over the years, but he’s never lost consecutive games. Jake Fromm hasn’t lost a true road game in his career at Georgia but is expected to lose some snaps to freshman Justin Fields, whose speed offers a different look the Tigers have had to spend time preparing for.

Wisconsin at Michigan (-10/49), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: Neither Jim Harbaugh nor Paul Chryst expected to lose two games all season given the talent returning, so the fact one of them will see it happen before the midpoint of October means we’re about to see two desperate teams square off. The Badgers put together their best offensive game of the season in a commanding 41-24 win over Nebraska and will look to run the ball to keep from being subjected to a fierce pass rush that has produced 18 sacks. The Wolverines are tremendous up front and will have DE Rashan Gary available to anchor the group. RB Chris Evans has also been upgraded to probable, so he and Karan Higdon should prove formidable in anchoring the ground game alongside Shea Patterson.

This line opened a lot higher than I expected, so there’s certainly a dynamic of weighing taking an awful lot of points with a Badgers squad that doesn’t get blown out often against the danger that this particular group is unable to answer the bell in Ann Arbor. Safety Scott Nelson will miss the first half due to targeting and DE Isaiahh Loudermilk has been ruled out for Wisconsin, which has definitely seen its defensive depth compromised. It did get good news with D’Cota Dixon being expected to play despite sporting a walking boot mid-week, but he’s nowhere close to being 100 percent. The same can be said for key LB Andrew Van Ginkel, who is listed as questionable. Harbaugh lost last year’s game in Madison 24-10 after posting a 14-7 win in his first encounter with the Badgers back in ’16. The home team has won eight of nine in this series. The Badgers haven’t been this large an underdog since facing Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive weeks in ’16. Wisconsin lost but covered in both.

Washington (-3.5/57.5) at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2/ABC: Since Stanford is already out of the national title picture with two losses, the winner of this Pac-12 duel will carry the flag for the conference going forward. Although the Ducks lost to the Cardinal due to a memorable collapse, the presence of potential No. 1 overall pick Justin Herbert and an extremely manageable schedule going forward give them a chance to climb if they’re able to handle business at home over the Huskies. Washington’s loss to Auburn no longer looks as impressive as it was expected to, but it will have big home games against Colorado next week and Stanford to open November that should keep it in the national picture. So, who survives? Herbert can really improve his draft spot with a strong performance against a Huskies secondary widely respected as one of the nation’s best. He’ll have tight end Jacob Breeland to work with in addition to a stable of backs CJ Verdell, Tony Brooks-James and Darrian Felix all cleared to play.

Washington will have Myles Gaskin available despite a shoulder issue as he looks to build on his 2-touchdown game at UCLA. So long as he holds up, the Huskies can match Oregon’s firepower even if the Quack Attack gets going. Mario Cristobal and his staff come in off a bye week, so they’ll have had ample time to dial up a few surprises for Chris Petersen, who has won the past two meetings with the Ducks after losing his first two contests against them. Jake Browning set a school-record with six touchdown passes the last time he visited Eugene as U-Dub won at Oregon for the first time since 2002. Washington has won the past two meetings by a combined margin of 108-24.

Colorado at USC (-7/57), 10:30 p.m. ET, FS-1: The Trojans are looking up at the Buffs in the South Division, but it’s no surprise to see even this young version favored since they’re a perfect 7-0 against them in Pac-12 meetings. This is by far the best Colorado team in that span, even superior to the 10-4 2016 squad that lost just 21-17 at the Coliseum, covering in their only regular-season conference loss before being demolished by Washington in the title game. QB Steven Montez started in that loss as a sophomore and fared well, but he’s a much more polished product these days, ranking ninth in the FBS in pass efficiency (174.2). WR Juwann Winfree, who had a huge game against USC last season, is hoping to play after missing last week’s game with an ankle injury.

Colorado needs all of its playmakers to prevail on the road given the recruiting advantages the conference power holds, but if it is going to get a win in this series, this appears to be the perfect opportunity. Clay Helton is just 3-2 coming off a bye week but did get a chance to get a number of banged up players healthier. RB Stephen Carr, guard Toa Leobendahan and DT Brandon Pili should all play, while the disruptive Porter Gustin is going to be spry given the time off to rest a gimpy ankle. Wins at USC and Washington next week would thrust the Buffs into the national conversation, but they were extended at home by Arizona State last Saturday and are underdogs in both of these huge tests.

West Virginia (-6.5/56.5) at Iowa State, 7 p.m. ET, FS-1: Oklahoma’s loss at Texas officially made the Big 12 wide open, although I was leaning towards the Mountaineers as the team to beat in the conference before the season even started. The opportunity is going to be there for them, but it won’t come until November to prove it since a bye awaits next week before a Thursday home game with Baylor. That makes this visit to Ames the must biggest obstacle for West Virginia, which handled business on Homecoming against Kansas and hasn’t really been tested yet since a visit to N.C. State was canceled due to a hurricane.

West Virginia's closest game, a 42-34 win at Texas Tech, was only cosmetically tight since the Red Raiders trailed 35-10 at the break. The Mountaineers haven’t trailed all season, so we’ll see how they handle a potentially tight game in Ames, where the Cyclones are known to be rude hosts. Kansas intercepted Will Grier three times in the end zone last week, so that’s where the primary focus for this matchup is. Iowa State held West Virginia at bay in last year’s 20-16 loss that represented the second-lowest scoring output of the season for the Grier-led offense. ISU tripped up Oklahoma State last week behind the passing of true freshman Brock Purdy, who wasn’t expected to be in the mix this season. The Cyclones have receivers who can do damage if Purdy can consistently deliver the ball, so this may certainly wind up as a live ‘dog situation if West Virginia fails to handle adversity well. Standout RB David Montgomery missed last week’s upset but is expected back here with fresh legs. The Mountaineers have won and covered in four straight meetings with Iowa State.

Michigan State at Penn State (-13/53.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN: Keeping Brian Lewerke in the pocket is a priority for the Nittany Lions, who have had a few weeks to stew over their disappointing loss to Ohio State. James Franklin’s priority was moving on from his “great to elite” rant and that game’s mistakes and should have his team ready to play. He’s just 4-5 coming off byes in Happy Valley and 9-7 overall, so history would say it’s no lock that his team will be perfectly refreshed entering this Homecoming game, which adds its own share of distractions. The Spartans lead the country in run defense and should get back RB L.J. Scott, who has been pulled back as a game-time decision due to a hamstring injury in each of the last two weeks. That suggests he’s been close to returning, so it would be a surprise not to see him out there in such a big game.

Michigan State comes off a loss to Northwestern to spoil their own Homecoming and hasn’t looked sharp at all offensively. The defense was unexpectedly carved up last week and has been vulnerable against the pass, so McSorley will have a chance to build on throwing for a season-high 286 yards without being intercepted against the Buckeyes. Electric WR K.J. Hamler is expected to play after taking a hard hit and leaving the Ohio State game. Michigan State has won 25 of its last 35 Big Ten road games, which includes a solid win at improved Indiana two weeks ago. Mark Dantonio is 5-3 against Penn State and has won at Beaver Stadium twice. He’s 3-1 against Franklin. Inclement weather may factor in here since the current forecast calls for rain all morning that may or may not clear by the afternoon kickoff.

UCF (-4.5/81) at Memphis, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: TIf you’re tired of the Knights finding their way into the national conversation, the Tigers become your best bet to put a stop to it. The University of Central Florida owns the nation’s longest winning streak at 18 games and will make it to 20 if they survive at Memphis since there’s no way East Carolina can compete, even at home. Realistically, all that separates UCF from a Thursday night home date against Temple that would give them the college football spotlight on November 1 is finding a way to outscore the Tigers in what will likely be a track meet at the Liberty Bowl. Check out that total! It's above 80. Because a Sept. 15 road game at North Carolina was canceled by Hurricane Florence, the Knights are making their first appearance in an opposing stadium since an Aug. 30 rout of overmatched UConn.

Memphis has lost at Navy and Tulane, so this is no longer the American Athletic Conference summit meeting it was expected to be when the Tigers were made the overwhelming West Division preseason favorite, but that doesn’t mean they’re not still dangerous. RB Darrell Henderson is the national leader in yards per carry at 11.69 and is a threat to score a touchdown whenever he touches the ball. The Knights have their own version of that in Adrian Killins and the better quarterback in Heisman Trophy candidate McKenzie Milton, but they’re going to need both to produce if they’re going to win a seventh straight road game that doubles as Josh Heupel’s biggest obstacle until he has to visit rival South Florida on Nov. 23. The Knights have beaten Memphis 11 consecutive times, but that means absolutely nothing here.

Missouri at Alabama (-28/74), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Tigers fell short at South Carolina last week and were also taken down by Georgia, so this game could’ve been potentially topped Georgia-LSU as the biggest game in the country had things gone differently. There is some intrigue in that we get to see how Drew Lock fares against a Tide defense that has been vulnerable threw the air at times, so the prolific senior QB could raise his draft stock significantly with a big game. Unfortunately, top threat Emanuel Hall won’t play due to a groin injury that has impacted the team the past few weeks. Nate Brown is out with a similar ailment, so Mizzou will be without key cogs who have combined for 30 catches and nearly 560 yards.

Alabama will be playing its Homecoming game and have upgraded Tua Tagovailoa to probable despite him dealing with a slight knee issue. In looking like an NFL quarterback toying with kids, the Heisman front-runner has led his team to an average of 20.6 points in the first quarter, realistically ending games inside 15 minutes. It remains to be seen whether he throws his first fourth-quarter pass in this one since that would likely mean Lock is having success keeping the Tigers in this by executing a more balanced offense than Mizzou’s pass-happy approach. RBs Larry Roundtree and Damarea Crockett have combined for seven TDs and will play big roles in attempting to give the defense a breather by extending drives and keeping the Tide defense from keying on the passing game. You can’t hang with Alabama by being one-dimensional. Hanging with the Tide may prove to be a futile endeavor as is, although the last two teams have managed to cover the spread late. Missouri is making its first visit to Tuscaloosa and hasn’t played ‘Bama since losing the 2014 SEC Championship game 42-13.

Miami (-7/48) at Virginia, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Cavaliers are also a live home ‘dog this week, getting Miami on the heels of its comeback win over rival Florida State that may have taken its toll despite ending successfully. Virginia is well-coached by Bronco Mendenhall, who is 17-11 in his career coming off a bye and will have a Homecoming atmosphere to work with in Charlottesville. The Canes last lost there in 2014, getting blown out as a 5-point favorite in one of the uglier episodes of the Al Golden era. Mark Richt’s teams have rolled over Mendenhall’s in consecutive seasons by a combined margin of 78-42, overcoming a 21-14 deficit in last year’s game to remain undefeated. He ended a run of three straight UM losses at UVa in his first season, rolling 34-14. Malik Rosier led last year’s comeback in South Florida with some clutch throws, but he’s behind redshirt freshman N’Kosi Perry now. The entire team was terrible in the first half against the Seminoles but rallied from 20 points down behind Perry’s four touchdown passes. He’ll be making his first road start against a Virginia team that is perfect at home this season and has won four of five.

QB Bryce Perkins and versatile WR Olamide Zaccheaus have burned their share of defenses and will be looking to burn a Miami defense that will be looking to create miscues in order to win their first league road game since defeating North Carolina last season. The ‘Canes lead the nation in tackles for loss and will have nose tackle Gerald Willis in the mix despite a finger injury as they look to add to their tally of 20 sacks. If Perkins can keep them off balance with his speed and limit mistakes, he can keep Virginia from being its own worst enemy, which should be enough to flirt with an upset. Miami will need its run game to keep pressure off Perry, who should have top receiver Jeff Thomas in the mix despite a knee injury that has affected him all week. Miami is 17-4 SU the week after facing the Seminoles, but has only covered one of those games.

Others to watch: Baylor at Texas, Duke at Georgia Tech, Minnesota at Ohio State, Texas A&M at South Carolina, Pittsburgh at Notre Dame, Boise State at Nevada, Virginia Tech at North Carolina, Temple at Navy, Louisville at Boston College, Florida at Vanderbilt, Nebraska at Northwestern, Tennessee at Auburn, Iowa at Indiana.

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Notebook - Week 7
October 12, 2018
By Brian Edwards

**Florida at Vanderbilt**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Florida (5-1 straight up, 5-1 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite with a total of 50.5. The Commodores were +240 on the money line (risk $100 to win $240).

-- Since dropping a 27-16 decision at home to Kentucky that ended the longest active winning streak in an FBS rivalry, UF has responded with four consecutive wins both SU and ATS. Dan Mullen’s squad is 3-1 in SEC play after winning 47-21 at Tennessee, 13-6 at Mississippi State and 27-19 vs. LSU in a three-week stretch. If the Gators can prevail in Nashville, they’ll take a 6-1 record and 4-1 mark in conference action into their open date that precedes the annual trip to Jacksonville to face Georgia.

-- Florida captured its biggest win since trouncing Ole Miss at home in 2015 by beating previously-undefeated LSU last week by a 27-19 count as a one-point home underdog. Brad Stewart’s pick-six late in the fourth quarter extended UF’s lead to eight and the defense sealed the deal with a fourth-down interception by Donovan Stiner.

-- Florida is getting incredible play out of DEs Jachai Polite and Jabari Zuniga. Polite leads the nation in forced fumbles with four and is in a second-place tie in the SEC with six sacks. He has also contributed 24 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, three passes broken up and one QB hurry. Zuniga is tied for fifth in the SEC with 4.5 sacks and has also made 22 tackles to go with three TFL’s and three QB hurries.

-- UF is ranked sixth in the country in pass defense, eighth in scoring ‘D’ (14.8 points per game) and 19th in total defense.

-- Florida third-year sophomore QB Feleipe Franks has exceeded expectations to date. In fact, he’s made me look like a dummy with his solid play over the past few weeks. For the season, Franks has completed 54.9 percent of his passes for 1,122 yards with a 13/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also had a 15-yard catch on a trick play on the go-ahead drive vs. LSU, and the Wakulla Co. HS (Fla.) product has run for 152 yards and one score.

-- Vanderbilt (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) has won three of four home games while going 2-2 ATS. Meanwhile, UF is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road assignments.

-- Vandy started the season with home wins both SU and ATS over Middle Tennessee (35-7) and Nevada (41-10). Then Derek Mason’s team went to South Bend and outplayed Notre Dame for four quarters, but a key red-zone turnover, a missed field goal and dropped passes at crunch time resulted in a 22-17 setback. Nevertheless, the Commodores took the money as 14-point underdogs.

-- Vandy is 0-2 in league play after losing 37-14 at home to South Carolina and 41-13 at Georgia last weekend. The Bulldogs covered the spread as 26-point home favorites.

-- Vandy senior QB Kyle Shurmur is completing 60.4 percent of his throws for 1,400 yards with a 9/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is junior WR Kalija Lipscomb, who leads the SEC in catches (45), is fourth in receiving yards (496) and second in TD receptions (six).

-- Vandy owns a 9-7 spread record in 16 games as a home underdog during Mason’s five-year tenure.

-- I was in Nashville for this game two season ago when UF won a 13-6 decision but failed to cover the number as a 13-point road favorite. The 19 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 40.5-point tally. Teez Tabor’s late fourth quarter interception sealed the victory. Scarlett rushed 12 times for 55 yards and one TD. Shurmer got pulled after struggling for most of the game with only nine completions on 25 attempts for 82 yards and one interception. Lipscomb had three catches for 43 yards and Blasingame ran for 41 yards on five carries.

-- When these clubs collided at The Swamp last season, Florida picked up a fortunate spread cover as a 9.5-point home favorite in a 38-24 win. Facing a fourth-and-one play at Vandy’s 39, UF’s Malik Davis burst through the line and into the clear and scored on a 39-yard TD run. Although the backdoor was still open, the ‘Dores couldn’t answer with a score in the final minute. The Gators didn’t get ahead of the number for the first time until there was 14:18 remaining in the fourth quarter. Perine had three rushing TDs, while Davis ran for 124 yards and two TDs on 17 carries. Davis remains out indefinitely after breaking his foot last month. Shurmur had three TD passes without an interception.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-1 overall for Vandy, 3-1 in its home contests. The Commodores have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.

-- Totals have been a wash both overall (3-3) and on the road (1-1) for the Gators this season. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 48.8 PPG. -- The ‘over’ is 6-2 in the past eight of this rivalry.

-- This kick will be at 11:00 a.m. Central local time, noon Eastern, on the SEC Network.

**Texas A&M at South Carolina**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Texas A&M (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) listed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 52. The Gamecocks were +115 on the money line.

-- South Carolina (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) overcame a 23-14 halftime deficit to pick up a huge 37-35 win over Missouri last week as a one-point home underdog. Since he took over as starting QB in Week 8 of 2016 as a true freshman, junior signal caller Jake Bentley had started 24 consecutive games. But after spraining his knee in a loss at Kentucky two weeks ago, Bentley was unable to go against the Tigers. Making his first career start, senior QB Michael Scarnecchia completed 20-of-35 passes for 249 yards and three TDs without an interception even though the second half was mostly played during a driving rainstorm. In fact, he completely outplayed Missouri senior QB Drew Lock, who most consider to be a sure-fire first-round NFL Draft pick this upcoming spring. Muschamp’s defensive schemes stymied Lock for a third year in a row, as he completed 17-of-36 throws (he connected on just 14-of-32 last year) for merely 204 yards with zero TDs and two interceptions. Deebo Samuel had four receptions for 88 yards and one TD, while Bryan ‘Mama Can’t Spell’ Edwards caught seven balls for 73 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Despite Scarnecchia’s solid play in his starting debut, Muschamp has been clear all week that Bentley will get the starting nod vs. A&M. Bentley has struggled with a 7/6 TD-INT ratio. Edwards was playing on a sore ankle last week and most injury reports have him listed as ‘questionable.’ Ignore those reports as GamecockCentral.com owner Brian Shoemaker tells me Edwards “has practiced all week and is fine.”

-- Will Muschamp’s club is 2-1 both SU and ATS in three home outings. The Gamecocks are 4-3 ATS in seven games as home underdogs on Muschamp’s watch. Texas A&M lost a 45-23 decision at Alabama in its lone road assignment since Jimbo Fisher took over in College Station. The Aggies covered in backdoor fashion as 24.5-point ‘dogs.

-- Texas A&M handed Kentucky its first loss of the season in last week’s 20-14 overtime win over the Wildcats as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Aggies enjoyed a 21-8 edge in first downs and a 390-178 advantage in total offense, but they let UK back in the game when Darius West recovered an A&M fumble and turned it into a 40-yard scoop-and-score TD with 4:17 remaining. Trayvon Williams rushed for 138 yards and one TD on 24 attempts, while Kellen Mond threw for 226 yards and two TDs with one interception.

-- Williams leads the SEC in rushing yards (720), has seven rushing TDs and averages 6.0 yards per carry. Mond has connected on 60.5 percent of his passes for 1,447 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 230 yards and four TDs.

-- Texas A&M starting senior guard Keaton Sutherland is ‘out’ at South Carolina due to an ankle injury.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for the Aggies, with the ‘over’ hitting in their lone road assignment. Their games have averaged combined scores of 53.5 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for the Gamecocks, 3-0 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 55.8 PPG.

-- The SEC Network will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Georgia at LSU**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Georgia (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) listed as a 7.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 50. The Tigers were +240 to win outright (risk $100 to win $240).

-- LSU (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) is in bounce-back mode for the first time this season after losing 27-19 at Florida as a one-point road favorite. The 46 combined points elevated ‘over’ the 44-point total when UF’s Brad Stewart took Joe Burrow’s first interception of the season back for a pick-six TD. Just as he was at crunch time at Auburn on a money drive, Burrow bounced back and threw a bunch of great balls on the potential game-tying drive. LSU’s WRs simply weren’t up to the task. After Burrow threaded the needle into traffic for a 20-yard completion on 4th and 18, he purposely threw out of bounds to avoid pressure on a first-and-10 play. Then on second down, he hit his WR right in the hands for what would’ve been a big first-down gainer into UF territory. Then on 3rd and 10, he threw another excellent ball along the sidelines that went right through the hands of his target. Even on the 4th-and-10 play, when UF’s Donovan Stiner intercepted Burrow to put the game on ice, the QBs’ throw undoubtedly gave his WR a chance to go up and get it. Stiner simply made a better play on the ball.

-- As loyal readers know, I’m a UF alum and after Joe Alleva’s nonsense in 2016 that netted the Gators back-to-back home games vs. LSU, the Tigers certainly won’t be receiving any Christmas presents from me anytime soon. With that said, I’ve got to go to bat for Burrow again. The criticism this guy has been getting nationally is a bleepin’ joke! Sure, his 53.9 completing percentage isn’t very good. He’s thrown for 1,215 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Burrow also has 176 rushing yards and two TDs. He’s been the victim of a lot of drops, including the crucial ones I just noted. Burrow was fantastic on the game-winning drive at Auburn. Until the loss at UF last week, he had a 5-0 record and zero interceptions on a team that he didn’t join until late July. And four of those wins were by 16 points or more, with LSU going conservative in the second half with big leads.

-- LSU is unbeaten in three home games with a 1-2 spread record. The Tigers have been home underdogs twice since Ed Oregon took over, losing 10-0 vs. Alabama in 2016 as 7.5-point puppies. They rallied to clip Auburn 27-23 last year as seven-point ‘dogs.

-- UGA is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS on the road this year. As a road ‘chalk’ during Kirby Smart’s tenure, the Bulldogs are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS.

-- Georgia has won all its games by margins of at least 14 points. The Bulldogs thumped Vandy 41-14 as 26-point home ‘chalk.’ Jake Fromm hit 17-of-23 passes for 276 yards and three TDs without an interception. For the season, Fromm has connected on 72.8 percent of his passes for 1,200 yards with a 12/2 TD-INT ratio.

-- Georgia is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, 13th versus the pass, 19th against the run and second in scoring ‘D’ (13.0 PPG). As for its offense, UGA is ranked 15th in scoring with its 42.8 PPG average.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Tigers, 2-1 in their home games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 48.3 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for UGA, but the ‘over’ has hit in both of its road assignments. The Bulldogs’ games have produced average combined scores of 55.8 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Missouri at Alabama**

-- Let’s once again hit on how to bet this Alabama team, especially in the wake of seeing its backers get beaten in backdoor fashion for a third straight time last week at Arkansas. Not all gamblers will necessarily have access to bet team totals and maybe not even first-quarter wagers. However, most offshore shops and many in Nevada, Mississippi and (I would guess) New Jersey do offer them. If bettors have taken Alabama in the first quarter and the first half, in addition to backing the Crimson Tide’s team total to go ‘over’ in the first quarter, first half and the game, those players have gone 29-0-1 ATS. It’s a system of five bets that basically are ON Alabama’s offense. That’s 30 plays over six games and the lone blemish is the push when ‘Bama was a seven-point favorite to A&M in the first quarte and led 14-7 going into the second.

-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Alabama (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) listed as a 28-point favorite with a total of 74.5. The Tigers had 25/1 money-line odds at South Point in Vegas.

-- Nick Saban’s team covered the number (for the game) its first three times out, but it has failed to get the money three games in a row with its offense stalling with big leads and its third-strangers on defense giving up late scores. That was the case at Arkansas last week when the Razorbacks covered the spread as 35-point home underdogs in a 65-31 loss. Alabama went ahead of the number when Brian Robinson’s five-yard TD run put the Tide ahead 65-24 with 1:59 remaining. However, the Hogs’ Cole Kelly scored on a one-yard TD run with 13 ticks left and the PAT gave them the backdoor cover. Tagovailoa completed 10-of-13 passes for 334 yards and four TDs without an interception. Jerry Jeudy had four catches for 135 yards and two TDs, while Damien Harris ran for 111 yards and two scores on only 15 carries.

-- Tagovailoa has connected on 75.2 percent of his passes for 1,495 yards and 18 TDs without an interception. He’s also run for 122 yards and two scores with a 5.3 YPC average. Jeudy is enjoying a breakout campaign as a sophomore, catching 23 balls for 558 yards and eight TDs. Henry Ruggs III has 17 receptions for 329 yards and six TDs, while Irv Smith Jr. has 16 grabs for 332 yards and three TDs.

-- RB Najee Harris paces the Tide in rushing yards with 382 and has four TDs and a 6.8 YPC average. Harris has run for 361 yards and three TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC.

-- Alabama leads the country in scoring with its 56.0 PPG average, and that’s with sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa usually only playing two or parts of three quarters. I’m not 100 percent certain on this, but I’m at least 95 percent confident that he’s yet to take a snap in the fourth quarter this season. The Tide is ranked third in the nation in total offense, sixth in passing and 27th in rushing. The Tide is 12th in the country in scoring defense (16.0 PPG).

-- Alabama lost junior CB Trevon Diggs to a season-ending foot injury in last week’s win in Fayetteville. Diggs had recorded 20 tackles, six PBU, one forced fumble and one interception.

-- Missouri (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) is ranked ninth in the nation in total offense, 15th in passing yards and 26th in scoring with a 39.0 PPG average. I had my doubts about the hire of former UT HC Derek Dooley as the Tigers’ new OC after Josh Heupel left to become the HC at UCF, but Dooley has done an outstanding job to date. Lock has completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,487 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio.

-- Emanuel Hall, a first-team All-SEC selection in 2017, has 18 receptions for 430 yards and three TDs. However, he is not expected to play in Tuscaloosa due to a groin injury. Also, WR Nate Brown is listed as ‘questionable’ with a groin issue. Brown has 12 catches for 129 yards. Johnathon Johnson will receive a lot of attention from Alabama’s secondary. Johnson has 21 receptions for 240 yards and three TDs. Lock, who is No. 25 on Mel Kiper’s most recent Big Board for the 2019 NFL Draft, also has an elite TE to target. Albert Okwuegbunam has 27 grabs for 194 yards and two TDs.

-- Missouri has three capable RBs at its disposal. Larry Rountree has run for a team-best 383 yards and four TDs while average 5.6 YPC. Damaris Crockett has 353 rushing yards, three TDs and a 5.0 YPC average, while Tyler Badie has run for 234 yards and one score.

-- The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 for Mizzou, 2-0 in its road assignments. The Tigers’ games have produced average combined scores of 67.8 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-1 overall for ‘Bama, 4-0 in its home contests. The Tide has seen its games average combined scores of 72.0 PPG.

-- This is the highest total for ‘over/under’ wagers in the storied history of Alabama football. It is also the highest tally Missouri has seen this year.

-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- I got a little nervous late Tuesday night in Santa Rosa Beach, where I live about 25 miles West of Panama City Beach and 35-40 miles West of Panama City, where the eye (or at least the Westerly side of the eye) of Hurricane Michael made landfall early Wednesday morning. Therefore, I made the three-hour (and small change) drive to Biloxi, where I’ve been staying at The Imperial Palace for the last three nights (and at least one more). I introduced myself to the IP’s Sports Book Director George Cole on Thursday. Cole said, “Things have been going very well since we opened on Aug. 3. We’re driven by the business we get on Saturdays, but we certainly get enough play during the week to be open daily. The most popular teams our customers have been betting on are Alabama, LSU and Georgia. It was brutal the way Alabama beat us the first few weeks, but these recent backdoor covers against them have helped us. And Florida knocking off LSU was a big help last week.”

-- Auburn will welcome Tennessee to The Plains for a noon Eastern kick on the SEC Network. The Volunteers have had two weeks to prepare for the Tigers, who are off a soul-crushing 23-9 loss at Mississippi State as three-point road favorites. Jarrett Stidham missed an easy TD pass when he overthrew a wide-open receiver and RB JaTarvious Whitlow fumbled just inches before reaching the ball across the plane of the end zone for a TD. The ‘under’ improved to 5-1 overall for AU and it is 4-1 in its home games. As of Friday afternoon, most books had Auburn (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) installed as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. The Vols had +475 odds to win outright. Tennessee (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) has lost its first two SEC games vs. UF (47-21) and at UGA (38-12) and also got smashed 40-14 by West Virginia in its opener in Charlotte. Jeremy Pruitt’s team picked up its wins at home over East Tennessee State (59-3) and UTEP (24-0).

-- As of Friday afternoon, most books had Ole Miss (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) listed as a 6.5-point favorite at Arkansas with a total of 67.5. Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. The Rebels will be without DBs Kendarius Webster and C.J. Moore. They’re seventh in the nation in total offense, fifth in passing yards and 16th in scoring with a 42.3 PPG average. QB Jordan Ta’amu has completed 64.2 percent of his throws for 1,911 yards with a 13/4 TD-INT ratio. A.J. Brown, who was sixth on Kiper’s first Big Board shortly after the 2018 NFL Draft, is no longer in Kiper’s Top 25. Nevertheless, he has 44 receptions for 586 yards and four TDs. D.K. Metcalf has 25 catches for 520 yards and five TDs. The ‘over’ is 4-2 overall for the Rebels, 2-0 in their road outings. Arkansas (1-5 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) has lost five straight games since winning its opener over Eastern Illinois by a 55-20 count. We should note, however, that the Hogs have covered the spread in back-to-back outings. They easily took the money in a 24-17 loss to Texas A&M as 20-point ‘dogs two weeks ago at Jerry World.

-- Mississippi State and Kentucky have their byes this weekend.

-- The updated line for the Iron Bowl at 5Dimes.eu is Alabama -20.5 vs. Auburn. Other look-ahead lines for key SEC games include LSU -4.5 vs. Mississippi State, UGA -11 vs. UF, UGA -12.5 at UK, Alabama -16 at LSU, ‘Bama -23 vs. MSU, UGA -14 vs. Auburn and LSU pick ‘em at Texas A&M.

[StarDust Bum]

South Florida rallies to stun Tulsa, 25-24
October 12, 2018

TULSA, Okla. (AP) Blake Barnett and Tyre McCants came through with No. 23 South Florida's undefeated season on the line against struggling Tulsa.

The Bulls overcame a 14-point deficit in the final 7:10, taking the lead on Coby Weiss' 22-yard field goal with 2 seconds left in a 25-24 victory Friday night.

Barnett and McCants set up the field goal, with Tyre McCants taking the ball to 5 with 8 seconds left on a 32-yard pass play.

''The thing about him is that he is so strong and he is elusive,'' USF coach Charlie Strong said about the 5-foot-11, 240-pound McCants. ''When you tackle him you'd better wrap up because he's going to break away.''

USF was helped on the drive by a roughing-the-passer penalty on defensive end Trevis Gipson.

''I haven't seen the play. And I've got to be real careful what I say,'' Tulsa coach Philip Montgomery said. ''All I do know is that is a tough call right there in in that situation at that time in the game.''

Barnett scored on 1- and 12-yard runs to pull the Bulls (6-0, 2-0 American Athletic Conference) within two with 2:10 to go, but was stopped on a two-point conversion run. USF forced Tulsa (1-5, 0-3) into a three-and-out, giving the Bulls the ball back with 1:03 remaining on their own 43 with no timeouts left.

''It was great that we were able to pull this game out when we have a national audience when a lot of people were able to see us,'' Strong said.

Barrett was 17 of 39 attempts for 237 yards,

Weiss won the kicking job just before the season started.

''I told our guys, we didn't know who our kicker was, but we know he is now,'' Strong said.

Jordan Cronkrite, who set a USF and AAC record with 302 yards last week at UMass, rushed for 151 yards on 25 carries. But outside of a 66-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter that evened it at 10, Cronkrite didn't do a lot of damage.

Sharmari Brooks ran for 100 yards on 28 carries for Tulsa. He had two 10-yard scoring runs in the third quarter to put the Golden Hurricane up 24-10.

Tulsa's Seth Boomer was 6 of 21 for 79 yards.

THE TAKEAWAY

Tulsa almost won the game due to not turning the ball over, combined with a strong defense. Coming into the game, Tulsa ranked last in FBS in turnovers and turnovers per game, and sixth-to-last in turnover margin.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

South Florida would have almost certainly dropped out of the Top 25 after losing to a Tulsa team that had not won a FBS game all season.

UP NEXT

USF: Hosts UConn on Oct. 20.

Tulsa: At Arkansas on Oct. 20.


************************


UTAH 42, ARIZONA 10

SAN DIEGO ST. 21, AIR FORCE 17

[StarDust Bum]

college football best bets aug-sept.

total..........185 - 181-0.......50.54%....-64.35

best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

total.....................77 - 72............-11.500...........49 - 40.............+25.00..........126 - 112.......+10.50

PODS............RECORD.............0 - 2....................TOTALS....................... .-11.00

************************

College Football Best Bets For October


Date w-l-t % units record (ALL PLAYS BEST BETS AND OPINIONS )

10/12/2018 5-1-0 83.33% +19.50
10/11/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
10/09/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/06/2018 32-39-0 45.07% -54.50
10/05/2018 1-5-0 16.66% -22.50
10/04/2018 4-0-0 100.00% +20.00

Totals............43-50-0........46.23%.....-60.00



best bets................. ats ...............units................ o/u...............units...............days total

10/12/2018............3 -0................+15.00............2 - 1...............+5.50...............+20.50
10/11/2018............0 - 2................-11.00............1 - 1................-0.50................-11.50
10/09/2018............0 - 1................-5.50..............0 - 1................-5.50................-11.00
10/06/2018............6 - 18..............-49.50.............8 - 6...............+7.00...............-42.50
10/05/2018............0 - 3...............-16.50..............1 - 2..............-6.00.................-22.50
10/04/2018............2 - 0...............+10.00.............2 - 0..............+10.00..............+20.00

Totals....................11 - 24.............-57.50............14 - 11..............+10.50..............-47.00

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s six-pack

College football trends for Week 6:

— Arkansas beat Ole Miss 38-37 LY; they trailed 31-7 at the half.

— Wisconsin covered its last four games with Michigan.

— Home side is 14-3-1 vs spread in last 18 UCLA-Cal games.

— Florida is 7-3 vs spread in its last 10 visits to Vanderbilt.

— Home side is 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven Buffalo-Akron games.

— Kansas State covered 11 of last 14 games with Oklahoma State.

Quote of the Day
“If it was easy, everyone would be rich.”
Sean Higgs, talking about sports betting

Saturday’s quiz
Dodgers’ P Clayton Kershaw was the center on his HS football team; who was the QB?

Friday’s quiz
Cincinnati Bengals beat the Houston Oilers the last time they won a playoff game, in 1990.

Thursday’s quiz
Milwaukee Brewers were last in a World Series in 1982, losing to St Louis in 7 games.


******************************


Saturday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind……

13) Brewers 6, Dodgers 5— Knabel struck Turner out with tying run on third base to end the game. Dodgers made four errors; Milwaukee used seven pitchers.

12) This game wasn’t on FOX, it was on FS1, which isn’t shown in most hotel rooms around the country, and probably isn’t in the regular channel rotation for many casual fans.

Major League Baseball has to market itself better; they just have to. There is a level of arrogance that people will kill themselves to find these playoff games; the casual fan will not, and to grow the game, baseball needs to engage the casual fan better.

This is the freakin’ NLCS, its a big deal; if FOX Sports doesn’t see fit to put these games on FOX instead of FS1, then FOX shouldn’t be showing the games.

Last night, Warriors-Lakers were on ESPN2, there were three college football games, and baseball is hiding its main event on FS1. Really, thats not intelligent.

11) During Eagles-Giants Thursday night, Troy Aikman was talking about filming commercials with Hulk Hogan, and how much he enjoyed meeting/working with the Hulkster.

Everyone has their own preferences, but to me, Aikman and Tony Romo are the best NFL game analysts, and I’m not a Cowboy fan.

The best analysts are guys who when you listen to them, its like you’re sitting in, eavesdropping on two friends talking ball. Relaxed conversation, but with decisive opinions.

10) Eli Manning will turn 38 years old on January 3; the Giants are 1-5, and don’t have an offensive line that is good enough to protect an immobile QB.

It is time (it was time last year) for the Giants to move on- hey, Joe Montana finished his career with the Chiefs, Johnny Unitas was a Charger at the end, and Manning is no Montana/Unitas. It happens. Giants need to play Kyle Lauletta and see if he could be the answer going forward.

9) Former Clemson QB Kelly Bryant quit the Tigers few weeks ago, is now looking for his next home; North Carolina, Arkansas, Louisville and Missouri are the frontrunners right now.

8) Sports gambling is now legal in five states; New Jersey, Nevada, Delaware, Mississippi and West Virginia. What will that number be up to by this time next year?

From June 14-August 31, gamblers in New Jersey placed $95.6M worth of bets on sports, and the state collected $16.5M in profits.

As usual, New York is twiddling its thumbs and losing money.

7) Arizona Diamondbacks are switching to artificial turf next year, after having natural grass for the first 21 years of their existence at Chase Field.

6) New York SS Didi Gregorius is having Tommy John surgery, will miss most of next season. Average recovery time for non-pitchers who have this surgery is ten months, which fuels the speculation that Manny Machado will be headed to the Bronx this winter.

5) Last week in the NFL, there were six missed PAT’s and 16 missed field goals, which is a lot; when a guy missed four FG’s and a PAT in a dome, you realize how mental kicking can be.

4) Double digit underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFL games so far this season.

3) Best red zone offenses in NFL (pts/possession):
Seattle 6.20, Kansas City 6.05, Pittsburgh 5.57, New England 5.56.

Worst red zone offenses:
Jets 3.53, Jacksonville 3.62, Denver 3.87, Houston 4.05

2) Best offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Chiefs/Saints 2.87, Bengals 2.83, Falcons 2.66.

Worst offenses on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Cardinals 0.87, Bills 0.90, Texans 0.97, Browns 1.04

1) South Florida 25, Tulsa 24— Bulls are 7-0, but trailed three of those games in 4th quarter and a fourth game was tied in final frame. Tulsa led this game 24-10, let it slip away.

I watched this game on the plane ride home from Las Vegas; thanks to these teams for playing an entertaining game and making a usually-dull flight seem a lot shorter.

USF’s QB is Blake Barnett, who started Alabama’s opener in 2016, got benched, transferred to Arizona State, got beat out there, transferred and now is getting his chance to play— he was at a junior college in there somewhere too. This is a make-or-break year for him, and he is doing the most with the opportunity.