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CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thur., Aug. 23 - Sat., August 25)

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  • CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thur., Aug. 23 - Sat., August 25)

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, August 23 - Saturday, August 25

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  • #2
    CFL Betting Recap - Week 10
    Joe Williams

    League Betting Notes

    -- Underdogs went 3-1 SU in Week 10
    -- Underdogs went 4-0 ATS in Week 10
    -- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 10
    -- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 10
    -- The 'Over' went 3-1 in Week 10

    Analysis

    Ottawa (6-3) posted an impressive 44-21 road victory in Winnipeg (5-4), and they continue to carry the flag for the beleaguered East Division. They remain the only team in the East over .500, and they're six points clear of both Hamilton (3-5) and Toronto (3-5) with a game in hand. The RedBlacks will have a bye before hosting cellar-dwelling Montreal (1-8) in two weeks.

    Speaking of the Blue Bombers, they slipped to 3-2 SU at home and they have failed to cover their past two in Manitoba after opening 3-0 ATS in the first three on their home turf. The 'over' continue to come in regularly for the Bombers, going 6-3 through nine outings. The 44 points allowed was easily a season high, as their previous worst came in a 33-30 loss in their opening game on June 14.

    The Alouettes didn't win, but they were able to cover a big number in Edmonton (6-3). The Als are 0-3 SU since QB Johnny Manziel took the reins of the offense, but they were able to post a season-best 24 points and they have covered in consecutive games for the first time this season. The 'over' is also 3-1 across the past four for Montreal.

    As far as the Esks are concerned, they might have picked up their sixth victory to creep up on Calgary (7-1), but Edmonton is still just 3-6 ATS overall and 2-3 ATS in five home outings. They will look to avenge a 38-21 loss at home agianst the Ti-Cats when they travel to the Hammer on Thursday to open Week 11 play.

    The Stamps were surprised at Saskatchewan (4-4), suffering their first straight-up loss of the season. It was the first cover at home for the Roughriders since July 5, as they rebounded from a 34-22 in their first showing at home against the Stamps on July 28. The sides will face each other again in the cool crisp air of autumn on Oct. 20 in Southern Alberta.

    Lastly, the BC Lions (3-5) continue to hold up the end in the West, and their non-cover in Toronto on Saturday in a 24-23 loss snapped a 4-0 ATS streak. Speaking of streaks, the 'under' has cashed in a season-high three straight for the Lions.




    CFL Betting Notes - Week 11
    David Schwab

    Ottawa remained the only CFL team in the East Division to post a straight-up winning record this season with Friday’s 44-21 victory against Winnipeg as a 6 ½-point road underdog. Saturday’s doubleheader of games in Week 10 started with another upset when Toronto snuck past British Columbia 24-23 as a three-point underdog at home.

    Later that night, Edmonton hammered Montreal 40-24, but the Eskimos could not cover a massive 19-point spread on the closing line as home favorites. Week 10 in the CFL came to a close on Sunday with Calgary’s stunning 40-27 loss to Saskatchewan as a 6 ½-point road favorite. That is why they play the games with the underdogs going 3-1 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS in last week’s CFL action.

    Thursday, Aug. 23

    Edmonton Eskimos (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

    Point-spread: Hamilton -1 ½
    Total: 57

    Game Overview

    The Eskimos moved into sole possession of second place in the West Division with Saturday night’s SU win, but they have failed to cover in four of their last six games. The total went well OVER the 50 ½-point closing line in that game after staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in four of their previous five contests. Mike Reilly continues to throw the ball all over the field with 424 yards passing in Week 10 to raise his league-high total passing yards to 3,046 in nine games.

    Hamilton went into last week’s bye with just one SU win in its last five games while going 1-3-1 ATS during this same slide. The total has stayed UNDER in five of its first eight games. One of the Tiger-Cats three victories this season (SU and ATS) was a 38-21 upset over Edmonton in Week 2 as 6 ½-point underdogs on the road. Jeremiah Masoli completed 19-of-29 passing attempts for 332 yards and three touchdowns in that first meeting.

    Betting Trends

    -- Edmonton has won four of the last five meetings SU, but the Tiger-Cats have a 4-1-1 edge ATS in the last six meetings in this inter-division clash. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six matchups played in Hamilton.


    Friday, Aug. 24

    Toronto Argonauts (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (1-8 SU, 4-5 ATS)

    Point-spread: Toronto -6
    Total: 50 ½

    Game Overview

    The defending Grey Cup Champs may have saved their season with last week’s upset after getting past Ottawa 42-41 in dramatic fashion on Aug. 2 to snap a SU three-game skid. The Argonauts have covered ATS in four of their last six games and the total has gone OVER in three of their last four contests. McLeod Bethel-Thompson once again got the start at quarterback against BC and he completed 18-of-29 passing attempts for 260 yards and a score.

    Montreal had to turn to Antonio Pipkin as the starter against Edmonton in light of its depleted ranks at quarterback. He completed 56 percent of his 25 passing attempts for 217 yards. He threw one touchdown pass against one interception. Johnny Manziel’s playing status for this Friday’s game remains day-to-day with him in concussion protocol. The Alouettes have been the lowest scoring team in the CFL this season with an average of 16 points per game.

    Betting Trends

    -- Toronto has a slight 3-2 edge both SU and ATS in the last five meetings after winning the last two matchups in the East Division rivalry in 2017. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in eight of the last 10 games between the two.


    Saturday, Aug. 25

    Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS)

    Point-spread: Calgary -8 ½
    Total: 53 ½

    Game Overview

    The Blue Bombers recent three-game SU winning streak came to an end with Friday’s loss to Ottawa. The total went well OVER the closing 54 ½-point line in that game and it has gone OVER in six of their first nine games this season. One of the reasons for the results on the total line is an offense that is averaging 32.1 PPG as the highest scoring team in the league. The 44 points allowed in Week 10 was the first time Winnipeg gave up more than 23 points in any of their last six games.

    Calgary’s slow start out of the gate on Sunday led to a 24-6 deficit at the half that it could never close. Stampeders’ quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell still threw four touchdown passes in that game, but their defense looked uncharacteristically soft after holding opposing teams to fewer than 22 points in each of their first seven games. Calgary has now failed to cover in three of its last four games with the total going OVER in two of its last three contests.

    Betting Trends

    -- Calgary has beaten Winnipeg SU in 14 of the last 16 meetings on its home field. However, it has failed to cover in four of its last five home games against the Blue Bombers. The total has gone OVER in four of the last six meetings overall.

    Saskatchewan Roughriders (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS)
    Point-spread: BC -2 ½
    Total: 52

    Game Overview

    Kudos to Saskatchewan for executing the perfect game plan in Sunday’s stunning upset. It went on to outplay its West Division rivals in every phase of the game. Zach Collaros looked sharp throwing the ball with a 73.5 completion percentage on 34 passing attempts. He ended the game with 270 total passing yards and the Roughriders added another 112 yards running the ball. However, most of the credit for Sunday’s victory goes to the team’s play on the other side of the ball.

    The Lions had been able to cover in their four previous games as part of a SU 2-2 record. Saturday’s loss to Toronto stayed UNDER the 50 ½-point closing line and it has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of BC’s last five games. Travis Lulay completed 21 of his 34 passing attempts against Toronto for 285 yards and one touchdown pass, while Jeremiah Johnson carried the ball 11 times for 60 yards and another score.

    Betting Trends

    -- The home team has won the last three meetings SU, but Saskatchewan has covered ATS in eight of the last 10 games in this West Division tilt. The total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four meetings.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-25-2018, 12:14 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      CFL
      Long Sheet

      Week 11


      Thursday, August 23

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      EDMONTON (6 - 3) at HAMILTON (3 - 5) - 8/23/2018, 7:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      EDMONTON is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
      HAMILTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      HAMILTON is 5-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
      EDMONTON is 4-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
      4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      Friday, August 24

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      TORONTO (3 - 5) at MONTREAL (1 - 8) - 8/24/2018, 7:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MONTREAL is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
      MONTREAL is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
      TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      Saturday, August 25

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      WINNIPEG (5 - 4) at CALGARY (7 - 1) - 8/25/2018, 3:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      CALGARY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 3 seasons.
      CALGARY is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
      CALGARY is 132-98 ATS (+24.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
      CALGARY is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in August games since 1996.
      WINNIPEG is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
      WINNIPEG is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      CALGARY is 3-2 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
      CALGARY is 4-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      SASKATCHEWAN (4 - 4) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 5) - 8/25/2018, 10:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      SASKATCHEWAN is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
      SASKATCHEWAN is 138-101 ATS (+26.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
      BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-25-2018, 12:15 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        CFL

        Week 11


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        Trend Report
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        Thursday, August 23

        Edmonton Eskimos
        Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
        Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
        Edmonton is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
        Edmonton is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
        The total has gone OVER in 9 of Edmonton's last 12 games on the road
        Edmonton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
        Edmonton is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Hamilton
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
        Edmonton is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
        Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
        Hamilton Tiger-Cats
        Hamilton is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
        Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games
        Hamilton is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home
        Hamilton is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games at home
        Hamilton is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
        Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Edmonton
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Edmonton
        Hamilton is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
        Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton


        Friday, August 24

        Toronto Argonauts
        Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
        The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games
        Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
        Toronto is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
        Toronto is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games on the road
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Toronto's last 19 games when playing Montreal
        The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing on the road against Montreal
        Montreal Alouettes
        Montreal is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games
        Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
        Montreal is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
        Montreal is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
        The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games at home
        The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Montreal's last 19 games when playing Toronto
        The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Montreal's last 11 games when playing at home against Toronto


        Saturday, August 25

        Winnipeg Blue Bombers
        Winnipeg is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games
        Winnipeg is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
        The total has gone OVER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 10 games
        Winnipeg is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
        Winnipeg is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
        The total has gone OVER in 15 of Winnipeg's last 20 games on the road
        Winnipeg is 5-8-2 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Calgary
        Winnipeg is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing Calgary
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Calgary
        Winnipeg is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Calgary
        Winnipeg is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Calgary
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing on the road against Calgary
        Calgary Stampeders
        Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
        The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Calgary's last 9 games
        Calgary is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
        Calgary is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Calgary's last 7 games at home
        Calgary is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing Winnipeg
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
        Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
        Calgary is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg


        Saskatchewan Roughriders
        The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Saskatchewan's last 13 games
        Saskatchewan is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 6 games on the road
        Saskatchewan is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing British Columbia
        Saskatchewan is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing British Columbia
        The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Saskatchewan's last 21 games when playing British Columbia
        Saskatchewan is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
        Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
        The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Saskatchewan's last 17 games when playing on the road against British Columbia
        British Columbia Lions
        British Columbia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
        British Columbia is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
        British Columbia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
        British Columbia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Saskatchewan
        The total has gone UNDER in 16 of British Columbia's last 21 games when playing Saskatchewan
        British Columbia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
        British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
        The total has gone UNDER in 13 of British Columbia's last 17 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan


        -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-25-2018, 12:16 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          CFL
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Week 11



          Edmonton (6-3) @ Hamilton (3-5) (-3, 57)— Road team won seven of last eight series games; Ti-Cats (+6.5) won 38-21 in Edmonton June 22. Eskimos won their last four visits here, by 3-3-3-7 points. Last three series games went over the total. Edmonton won four of its last five games; they’re 2-2 SU on road (over 2-1-1)— this is first time they’ve been an underdog this season. Hamilton lost four of its last five games; they’re 3-0 when they score 31+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Ti-Cats are 1-2 at home- four of their last six games stayed under the total.

          Toronto (3-5) (-6, 52.5) @ Montreal (1-8)— Toronto won its last two games by one point each; Argonauts are 0-3 on road, scoring 19-15-14 points; they’re 0-1 as a favorite this season. Three of their last four games went over. Home side won last five series games; Argos lost 21-9/38-11 in last two visits here. Under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games. Montreal lost its last six games; they’re 0-4 at home, with all four losses by 10+ points, three by 21+. Als were outgained by 238+ yards in each of their last three games. Three of their last four games went over.

          Winnipeg (5-4) @ Calgary (7-1) (-9)— Stampeders are coming off first loss of season in Regina last week; they won seven of last eight games with Winnipeg, losing 23-5 to the Bombers here in last meeting last November. Under is 5-2-2 in last nine series games. Winnipeg won three of its last four games; they’re 2-2 on road this season, 1-1 vs spread as an underdog. Three of their last four games went over. Calgary is 4-0 at home this year, 2-2 vs spread as home favorites, winning by 9-17-10-14 points. Under is 6-2 in their games this season, 4-0 at home.

          Saskatchewan (4-4) @ BC Lions (3-5) (-2.5, 51)— Roughriders evened their record by upsetting Calgary LW; they’re 3-0 when they allow 20 or fewer points, 1-4 when they allow more. Riders lost two of three road games- over is 3-1 in their last four games. Lions wins even of last eight series games; three of last four series games stayed under. Riders lost their last three visits here, by 23-26-3 points. BC lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-0 at home, 0-5 on road; Lions are 1-1 as favorites this year. Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.

          Through Week 10: Favorites 16-22; Under 22-14-2

          Comment


          • #6
            CFL
            Dunkel

            Week 11



            Thursday, August 23

            Edmonton @ Hamilton

            Game 361-362
            August 23, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Edmonton
            107.126
            Hamilton
            119.295
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Hamilton
            by 12
            60
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Hamilton
            by 3
            57
            Dunkel Pick:
            Hamilton
            (-3); Over


            Friday, August 24

            Toronto @ Montreal


            Game 363-364
            August 24, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Toronto
            108.994
            Montreal
            96.772
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Toronto
            by 12
            55
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Toronto
            by 5 1/2
            52
            Dunkel Pick:
            Toronto
            (-5 1/2); Over


            Saturday, August 25

            Winnipeg @ Calgary


            Game 365-366
            August 25, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Winnipeg
            113.544
            Calgary
            119.091
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Calgary
            by 5 1/2
            51
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            Calgary
            by 9
            53 1/2
            Dunkel Pick:
            Winnipeg
            (+9); Under

            Saskatchewan @ BC Lions


            Game 367-368
            August 25, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

            Dunkel Rating:
            Saskatchewan
            116.100
            BC Lions
            110.658
            Dunkel Team:
            Dunkel Line:
            Dunkel Total:
            Saskatchewan
            by 5 1/2
            49
            Vegas Team:
            Vegas Line:
            Vegas Total:
            BC Lions
            by 3
            51
            Dunkel Pick:
            Saskatchewan
            (+3); Under
            Last edited by StarDust Bum; 08-25-2018, 12:17 AM.

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