NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 (Sat., Aug. 25 - Mon., Sep. 3)

[Udog]

Mountain West Preview
Marc Lawrence

Can You Spell Defense?

Forget the ‘The Wall” that our self-proclaimed genius president is insistent on building. All we need instead is a blueprint of the top defenses residing in the Mountain West Conference these days.

The strength of the Mountain West Conference last year was its defense. That’s’ confirmed by the fact that no less than three teams finished the season ranked in the Top 25 in overall defense: #11 San Diego State (314.5), #22 Boise State (332.6) and #23 Wyoming (335.2).

20 For 20

As the Mountain West Conference begins its 20th football season this year it’s worth noting that have more than held their own in games outside the conference. And a stellar 52-38-1 ATS mark as dogs of 20-plus points since its inception, including 12-7 ATS in season opening games likely sets the table for Utah State, and the loop, this season.

Bowling For Dollars

Speaking of non-conference clashes, the MWC has more than held its own in bowl games, going 49-41 SU all-time.

More important, they stand 12-3 ATS all-time as bowl dogs of 6 or more points, with Boise State taking down Oregon, 39-28, as 7-point pups in last year’s Las Vegas Bowl.

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

AIR FORCE (Offense - *5/1 Defense - 6/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MISSION PROBABLE

Rest assured, Air Force HC Troy Calhoun did not like staying home for the holidays last year. When the Falcons concluded a dismal 5-7 effort last season, after going 10-3 in 2016, it marked only the second time in 11 seasons that Calhoun’s flyboys failed to earn their bowl stripes. And for what it’s worth, AFA stormed back the next year after failing to land a bowl bid to go 10-3 the following campaign. This is what “mission teams” do, especially of the military variety. Calhoun has averaged 7.5 wins per season with the Academy and with starting QB Arion Worthman back, expect the same to hold true this year. Worthman, 10-6 as a starter, rushed for 935 yards last season and holds the keys to the cockpit.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 2-14 ATS in games after facing Army and Navy since 2010.

PLAY ON: vs. Navy (10/6)


BOISE STATE (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 10/4, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: STRIVE FOR FIVE

As we pointed out last year, you have to go back to 1998 to find the last time a Boise State football team failed to win 8 games in a season. In fact, the most consistent Group of Five team in the nation has knocked of six of their last nine Power Five foes. Last season, though, was its first MWC title in three years and they won it behind an offense that slipped 67 YPG. SR QB Brett Rypien will have an array of wide receivers back (sans Cedrik Wilson) and the defense (which improved 57 YPG in 2017) is ridiculously talented and experienced. Tricky road tests at Troy and Oklahoma State in September should put them in better position to successfully defend their crown.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos are 67-2 SU in games vs. .500 or less foes with Bryan Harsin on the sidelines (as OC 2006-2010 and since 2014).

PLAY AGAINST: vs. New Mexico (11/17)


COLORADO STATE (Offense - 4/1, Defense - 6/1, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: RAMPING IT BACK UP

Riding a 5-year bowl skein, including 3-for-3 under head coach Mike Bobo, the Rams must replace the 2nd most overall total starters (15) in the nation, including 7 from a potent offense that featured all MWC QB Nick Stevens as well as three all-conference offensive linemen. That’s because seniors accounted for a whopping 69.6% of all starts last season – tops in the nation. Together they’ve led an explosion in all three seasons under Bobo that has seen CSU’s offense rank in the Top 10 nationally in total yards, yards per game, yards per point, first downs, rushing yards, total points and points per game. Yeah, that was impressive. Losing four of their final 5 games, though, was not. This will be a pivotal year for the Rams with hopes lying heavily on new QB K.J. Carta-Samuels, a Washington Huskies transfer who spurned UCLA to come to Fort Collins.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 0-22 SU all-time versus ranked opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Wyoming (10/17)


FRESNO STATE (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 7/0, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WHAT GOES UP...

After falling from 11 wins to 11 losses in three years, Fresno State brought former Cal head coach Jeff Tedford in to receive the fallen program last season. What he accomplished was nothing short of astonishing when the Bulldogs won 10 games and captured MWC championship. Unfortunately, the bar now rises to a new level. And with it appears a bulls-eye on their back now bigger than Target. The good news is QB Marcus McMaryion, and most of his cast, are back on offense including WR KeeSean Johnson (the loop’s top wideout). Losses on the DL are devastating, though, with the top three linemen gone (accounted for 32 tackles for a loss and 16 sacks). Hopefully a stacked cast of LB’s and DB’s can fill the void. Still, a huge step backward appears inevitable.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs suffered four losses last season by a TD or less.

PLAY ON: vs. UNLV (11/3)


HAWAII (Offense - 4/1 Defense - 5/1, 46 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: FROM THE RIDICULOUS TO THE LUDICROUS

After winning 7 games behind a ridiculous “around the world” schedule in 2016, it appeared the Warriors were ready for a breakthrough season last year behind an experienced team. Instead they were devastated by injuries. Only two linemen started all 12 games. Their best WR tore his ACL. A banged up secondary allowed 70% completions and 39 PPG the first half of the season. After a 2-0 start they went 1-9 out. Making matters worse, this season head coach Nick Rolovich must replace his starting QB, RB, three of his four top WRs, his top 3 DL, his top 3 safeties and both return men. Not to mention his DC. Talk about turnovers. This year’s practice facility has been renamed the Sara Lee Factory.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Hawaii is 2-7 SU in Eastern Time zones since 1959, with losses by a combined margin of 286-30.

PLAY ON: vs. Wyoming (10/6)


NEVADA (Offense - *7/3 Defense - 9/2, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TWO STEPPIN’

At first glance it appears Jay Norvell’s first Wolf Pack team took two steps back last season. Upon closer examination those two steps were more little stutter steps given the fact they started 0-5 but finished 3-4. Three of the nine losses were by a field goal or less and they took solace in denying state rival UNLV a bowl bid the final game of the campaign. With OC Hal Mumme Jr. and QB coach Timmy Chang the offense figures to open up more in 2018. Returning QB Ty Gangi completed 64% of his PASSes with a 151.6 PASSer rating the last 7 games of the season. And he’s got five of his top 6 wide receivers back. Step two resumes this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Last season was the first time in the last 20 years that Nevada allowed 500 rushing yards in a game (Air Force).

PLAY ON: vs. Air Force (9/29)


NEW MEXICO (Offense - 7/2, Defense - 9/4, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: A CHANGE IS ON THE WAY

It’s a shame that sexual allegations are hovering over the New Mexico football program. Bob Davie has done a masterful job of putting this team back on the map. Nonetheless, he was suspended for 30 days this spring but managed to retain his job. It’s difficult letting someone go that has brought respectability back to a program. FYI: The Lobos have been outscored 2.7 PPG under Davie. They had been outscored 26.0 PPG the three seasons prior to his arrival. After falling to 3 wins in 2017, Davie hit the JUCO circuit hard to compliment a delicately young roster. He’ll need to replace his staring QB, three of his top four RBs, the top two DL and the top 2 safeties. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS in Game Eleven of the season since 2005.

PLAY ON: vs. Utah State (10/27)


SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense - *7/5, Defense - 7/2, 36 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: DON’T KNOCK THE ROCK

Rocky Long’s secret to success is no secret at all. He loves to pound the ball down your throat and backs it up with a tough as nails defense. It’s resulted in 7 bowl trips in seven seasons (after the Aztecs had been bowlers just three times in 23 previous years). And on the heels of three consecutive double-digit winning seasons, Long is set to reap the reward of a youth movement last year. Consider: Freshmen and sophomores combined to make 46 offensive line starts. Underclassmen also made 39% of the tackles from last year’s 11th overall ranked defense. Sure, they lose 2,000-yard rusher Rashad Penny, but next-man-up Juwan Washington will likely be the program’s 3rd consecutive 2K running back. Because that’s what Rocky does.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Long SDSU is 20-15 SU and 12-16 ATS in the season’s first 5 games, and 41-10 SU and 32-15-2 ATS from Game 6 out.

PLAY ON: vs. Boise State (10/6)


SAN JOSE STATE (Offense - *8/2, Defense - 6/3, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MORE GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS

First the good news: the Spartans have signed a Top-6 recruiting class each year since 2014. The bad news: they have gone 15-35 since, and a lot of those recruits have bailed. Fortunately a continued youth movement is ongoing and with it things can only get better for second-year head coach Brent Brennan. They can’t get much worse. Not when Brennan’s troops were ranked dead last in the nation in Fumbles Lost, Turnover Margin, and Time of Possession – as well as second-to-last in Red Zone Offense and Rush Defense. The starting QB, RBs and five WRs are all 3-star prospects, and last year’s freshmen found plenty of playing time last season. They figure to make strides this year. The question is will it be enough?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The SU ‘In The Stats’ winner in Spartans games is 44-6 SU the last four seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Wyoming (11/3) - *KEY


UNLV (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 7/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: 1-2-3

Safe to say head coach Tony Sanchez has the Rebels on the right path. His recruiting skills are surfacing and as a result, UNLV has improved one game per season in each of Sanchez’s three years with the school. He is on course to take his troops bowling for only the fifth time in the last four decades – if the ‘one step at a time’ pattern holds true this should be the year. And for naysayers, remember, John Robinson was only 28-42 here. QB Armani Rogers and mighty mite RBs Charles Williams and Lexington Thomas will operate behind a huge offensive line all with starting experience. If the defense can chip in behind new DC Tom Skipper, the Rebels could be partying in 2018.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rebels have enjoyed just one winning season the last 17 years.

PASS


UTAH STATE (Offense - *9/5, Defense - 9/3, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BEHIND THE 8-BALL

Since taking over the program in 2013, head coach David Wells has led the Aggies to four bowl games in his five year tenure. Two of those, however, were 6-win losing campaigns and with it the natives are growing restless. During that span, though, they have knocked off three Top 25 ranked opponents, one more than USU had overall prior to Wells’ arrival. In addition, the Aggies have rushed the ball for 2,000 yards nine straight seasons. (Prior to the streak they went 33 years without rushing for 2,000 yards.) And for what it’s worth, the 18 returning starters ties the 2007 squad for the most in school history. Rest assured, they will all be chomping at the bit in 2018.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies own a 25-15 SU record in conference games under Wells. They were 24-42 SU the previous nine seasons.

PLAY ON: at Wyoming (10/20)


WYOMING (Offense - 9/4, Defense - 8/4, 50 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: 52.6

How ironic is this? In 2016 the Cowboys won 8 games behind a squad that started the most underclassmen in the nation: 56.2%. Looking to capitalize on that youthful experience last year, Wyoming won 8 games behind a celebrated QB (Josh Allen) who completed 56.3% of his PASSes in 2017, and finished with a 56.2% career PASS completion rate. Looks as if Allen was a 56.2% QB if ever there was one. Fortunately, a defense that was among the most improved in the FBS last season (17 PPG and 118 YPG), one that masked an offense which backslid 13 PPG and 148 YPG, returns practically intact led by the best defensive player in the loop in S Andrew Wingard. Craig Bohl’s force-feeding of youngsters three seasons ago should pay dividends this season, even without 52.6 behind center.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Wyoming led all FBS teams in Turnover Margin and Turnovers Gained last season.

PASS

[Udog]

Sun Belt Preview
Marc Lawrence

Benson DuBois

The Sun Belt Conference is entering its final football season under the leadership of commissioner Karl Benson, who took over at a time of major transition and uncertainty for the league seven years ago. Benson — who at 66 - has decided to step down next summer. Like his hit TV counterpart, Benson DuBois, he has witnessed the growth of the league.

“The Sun Belt for so long has been labeled as the bottom of the 10 conferences and that’s no longer the case,” insists Benson. “We have established a brand. We’ve established credibility.”

This season will be a historic one for the 18-year-old league, which will have its first championship game between the winners of two newly formed, five-team divisions that were designed to foster geographic rivalries and make travel easier for fans.

Hitting The Alleys

Meanwhile, while building the league from the basement up, Benson has witnessed quite a few benchmarks, including a total of 11 Sun Belt teams that have gong bowling the past two seasons, the most in conference history. Those teams have gone 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

The Sun Belt is 14-11 SU and 15-9-1 ATS as underdogs in bowl games, including 12-7 SU and 13-5-1 ATS with a winning record. FYI: five SBC team have entered bowl games off a loss of 3 or more points. They went 5-0 SUATS – all as underdogs.

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

APPALACHIAN STATE (Offense - 6/3, Defense - 5/1, 29 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: LAMB CHOPPED

This close. That’s how close the Mountaineers came to winning their first game against a Power 5 opponent when they fell 20-19 at home against Wake Forest, a game in which ASU won the stats by 149 yards. Nonetheless, the Apps emerged victorious 9 times last season and have won 30 games the last three years. This season, though they will go at it without 4-year starting QB Taylor Lamb, while also losing coveted DC Nate Woody to Georgia Tech. The good news is star RB Jalin Moore is back, as well as All-conference LT Victor Johnson. And leading WR Shaedon Meadors returns after missing last season with an injury. If back-up QB Zac Thomas can’t cut it, three big and talented QBs lurk in the shadows. It’s why ASU is favored to win the Sun Belt East Division by football coaches in the 2018 preseason poll.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mountaineers have won 27 of their last 30 Sun Belt games.

PASS


ARKANSAS STATE (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 5/1, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CATCH US IF YOU CAN

After winning or sharing five of the previous six Sun Belt titles, and going 20-4 in conference play under HC Blake Anderson, the Red Wolves settled for second-place with a 6-2 record in the Belt. The fact of the matter is they were arguably the best 7-win team in the land, one that out-yarded opponents by 116 YPG, going 10-2 In The Stats (8-0 the last eight games). At 26-6 the last four seasons in the loop, they are favored to win the West Division by SBC coaches in 2018. An explosive offense is led by former Oklahoma QB Justice Hansen (3,967 yards and 37 TDs last season) who returns with a cast of big, talented WRs, including five of who stand 6’3” or better. Hansen has named to the Walter Camp, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and Manning Watch Lists for 2018. In addition OL Lanard Bonner was placed on the Outland Trophy Watch List. Our math has them favored in 11 games this season (save Alabama). It’s what happens when you go up against the 4th easiest schedule of all FBS schools in 2018 with foes going 59-87 (.404) last season. Lookout Sun Belt lovers – the Wolves are talented and mad as hell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Red Wolves are 42-12 SU and 36-18 ATS from Game Six out the last seven years.

PLAY ON:vs. South Alabama (11/3)


COASTAL CAROLINA (Offense - 8/5, Defense - 5/2, 50 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TAKE TWO

We chronicled the Joe Moglia story on this page last season: Left coaching to become CEO and Chairman of the Board of Ameritrade, then returned as an unpaid Nebraska assistant to Coastal Carolina head coach. Along the way he won 51 games in five years, with four trips to the FCS playoffs. “My story is 10 times better than the Rudystory,” insists Moglia. Last year, though, he contracted an infection in his lungs and was forced to hand the reins over to OC Jamey Chadwell. The 2015 Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year is back this year with his all-star coaching staff. And WR Malcolm Williams (1,093 all-purpose yards last year) has been named to the 2018 Biletnikoff Award Watch List. Yes, after a false start, the most interesting coach in the world is now finally ready to take on the FBS.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Chanticleers’ offense has averaged at least 34 PPG every season under head coach Moglia.

PLAY ON:vs. UAB (9/8)


GA SOUTHERN (Offense - *8/4, Defense – 9/3, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: POWERING BACK UP

So much for first impressions. After a 3-0 start, former Georgia Southern head coach Tyson Summers proceeded to lose 13 of his next 15 games, and his job in the process when he was canned after an 0-6 start last year. Summers’ fake resume was exposed: he purported to be an option-first coach when in fact he was a non-option guy coaching an option team. Enter Chad Lunsford, who stepped in as interim last year while guiding the Eagles to a 2-4 finish. What he did was re-ignite a ground game over the course of the final three games (942 yards) that was reminiscent of the Georgia Power Company they used to be in the past. To top it off, they bring back the best secondary in the loop.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles went 3-6 SU at home the last two years after going 29-4 the previous five years.

PLAY ON:vs. Arkansas State (9/29)


GEORGIA STATE (Offense - 7/4, Defense - 5/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: LIKING THEIR NEW DIGS

The Panthers welcomed both new coach Shawn Elliott and a sort-of-new home stadium (the former Turner Field in Atlanta with a seating capacity of 24,333) last season, and they each fit like a glove. As a result, GSU earned 7 wins, as well as its first bowl victory. Elliott, the former South Carolina interim head coach, improved the offense over 50 YPG, but will be tested this season. That’s because he’ll break in a new QB with a powder-puff running attack to support him (ranked dead last in 2017 in carries that gained at least five yards). Instead, the new signal caller will lean heavily on a solid receiving corps led by Penny Hart (Biletnikoff Award Watch List) and two SEC transfers from Florida and South Carolina. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since becoming an FBS squad, the Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their third game of the season.

PLAY ON:at Memphis (9/14)


LIBERTY (Offense - *9/3, Defense - 7/2, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEW KIDS ON THE BLOCK

Liberty makes its FBS debut in 2018 and if the name sounds familiar, it should. The Flames torched Baylor, 48-45, as 34-point dogs in Waco in their season opener last year. The good news is head coach Turner Gill, the former Nebraska star QB, has had a winning record each of the six years he’s been in Lynchburg. The bad news is he was 25-49 at two other FBS schools (Buffalo and Kansas) before becoming the lead Flame. Gill did mange to win the MAC title in 2008. He also beat Coastal Carolina when the Chanticleers were No. 1 in the FCS at the time. And for what it’s worth, LU returns 81% of its overall production from last season, seventh in the FBS. Bon voyage.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Conference USA and the Sun Belt turned down Liberty, the nations’ largest private university, for admission.

PASS


SOUTH ALABAMA (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 7/2, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: EXTRA WIDE

New head coach Steve Campbell knows the shoes he is about to fill are big wide ones. That’s because departing head coach Joey Jones helped turn a fledgling football program from neophytes to mighty mites after they moved from FCS to FBS waters in 2012, averaging nearly 5.5 wins a season five years thereafter, while bowling twice. Perhaps Jones’ undoing was a 52-0 loss to winless Georgia Southern late last season. Nonetheless, Campbell brings pedigree, having led Central Arkansas to 20 wins and a Southland title the last two years behind a QB that completed 67 percent of his passes at over 15 YPC. With both of last year’s QBs back (and QB Cephus Johnson named the preseason Freshman Player of the Year), along with WR Jamarius Way on the 2018 Biletnikoff Award Watch List, look for a smooth transition into Phase II.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars are 1-5 SUATS following a SU underdog win the past three seasons by an average loss margin of 29 PPG.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Troy (10/23)


TEXAS STATE (Offense - 7/4, Defense - 8/4, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BABY STEPS

From an itinerary standpoint, the Bobcats’ 2018 schedule sets up favorably as they open the season against seven consecutive opponents that were home for the holidays last year. It’s the final five games that will likely tell the tale as they close against five bowlers. Through it all, they stand a good chance of recording as many or more wins this campaign as they managed in head coach Everett Withers’ first two years on the sidelines in San Marcos. The good news is he brings back a young but experienced group that improved its stats on both sides of the ball last season. The better news is that Withers has inked 17 three-star prospects in his first two years with the Bobcats. One step at a time.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bobcats are 5-28 In The Stats versus FBS foes the last three seasons.

PLAY ON:vs. Appalachian State (11/10)


TROY (Offense - 8/4, Defense - 5/2, 54 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WHAT BROWN CAN DO FOR YOU

A 44th ranked offense - which topped the nation in the Red Zone - and a 24th ranked defense carried the Trojans to a school-best 11-win season in 2017. And that came on the heels of a 10-win effort in 2016. So why is Neal Brown still its head coach? Stories like this often times find these coaches moving on to a Power 5 program. FYI: of the thirteen Power 5 jobs to open in 2018, ten hires were by fellow Power 5 coaches or assistants, along with Herm Edwards at Arizona State. The problem this season is four-year starting QB Brandon Silvers (10K passing yards and 71 TDs) and 3K rusher Jordan Chunn are gone. The good news is the backups saw lots of playing time last season. That and Hunter Reese is the top linebacker in the conference.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Trojans are 10-0 ATS in regular season games following a SU favorite loss.

PLAY ON:vs. Boise State (9/1)


UL LAFAYETTE (Offense – *9/3, Defense - 4/1, 54 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GEAUX CAJUNS

After playing UNDER its season win total each of the last five years, there is a new head coach roaming the sidelines in Lafayette and he goes by the name of Billy Napier. He replaces Mark Hudspeth, who won 9 games four consecutive seasons from 2011-2014 before the tires went flat. The 38-year-old Napier is a former QB at Furman who led the Paladins to the FCS playoffs in 2001 and 2002. He was Dabo Swinney’s OC at Clemson, as well as an assistant with Nick Saban at Alabama as well as an OC at Arizona State last season. His resume outweighs the neighborhood in which he now resides, but he’s now calling the shots. He’ll need to rebuild the trenches but the talent that does return is formidable.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cajuns are 8-0 SUATS as single-digit dogs vs. winning opponents.

PASS


UL MONROE (Offense – *9/4, Defense - 8/3, 56 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: POINTS APLENTY

Safe to say that with the arrival of head coach Matt Viator two years ago, the Warhawks have become an OVER machine in Sun Belt Conference wars. Thanks to a non-existent defense and an offense led by one of the best tandem QB/WRs in Group of 5 College Football (QB Caleb Evans and WR Marcus Green – each on the Manning and Biletnikoff Award Watch Lists respectively), ULM and its foes have averaged over 75 combined PPG in Sun Belt battles under Viator (85 last season). After going just 2-6 SU in his first eight games with Monroe, Viator’s troops have shown signs of progress since. With 8 starters back on defense, and nearly everyone returning on offense, we’re not overstating it when we say they can become a prime player in the SBC… when-and-if a defense shows its face.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: ULM had been shut out 7 times in 8 previous seasons against Power Five conferences before Viator... and none since.

PLAY AGAINST: at Coastal Carolina (10/13)

[Udog]

AAC Preview
Marc Lawrence

Coaches Call

Entering its fifth year of existence, the American Athletic Conference remains the top Group of 5 League heading into the 2018 football season.

While the loop has struggled in bowl games, going 10-17 SU and 11-16 ATS, it has become a breeding ground for up-and-coming head coaches including the likes of Memphis’ Mike Norvell, Temple’s Geoff Collins, Tulane’s Willie Fritz and Tulsa’s Phillip Montgomery.

Meanwhile, the 24 wins by Navy’s Ken Niumatalolo over Power Five or BCS Conference foes is the most of all Group of Five schools.

Two head coaches make their AAC debut in 2018, including SMU’s Sonny Dykes and UCF’s Josh Heupel – who makes his debut as a head coach at the FBS level.

Expect one or two of the aforementioned coaches to move on to a Power Five team in the near future.

Talking Points

-- Danger ahead: since the AAC formation in 2014 the conference has struggled mightily in non-conference games following a SUATS loss, going just 9-29-1 ATS. And if they are visitors in these games they fall off the face of the earth, going 1-12 SUATS. Gulp.

-- Since the formation of the conference in 2014, the best role for AAC teams has been on the road when coming off a win and facing a foe coming off a loss. It’s where teams in the conference stand 40-23 SU and 41-21-1 ATS overall, including 32-11-1 ATS if they scored 35 or more points in their last game.

-- Average attendance at American Athletic Conference home stadiums was 28,669, clearly No. 1 for Group of Five conferences. The problem, however, is it represented a decline of -2,942 fans per game over the 2016 season, the largest fall-off of all FBS conferences.

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

CINCINNATI (Offense - *5/2 , Defense - 7/3, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: COOL HAND LUKE

When Luke Fickell came to Cincinnati from Ohio State, he was brought on board to stop the bleeding. Former UC head coach Tommy Tuberville was dismissed not only after a public outburst against a fan but also after the Bearcats had slid gradually from back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2011-12 to just four wins in 2016. Tasked with rebuilding the program, Fickell immediately went to work compiling the best 2-year recruiting class in the Group of 5. The offense he inherited last season was thinned by graduation but QB Hayden Moore returns for his senior season, along with top RB Gerrid Doaks and WR Kahil Lewis. If Fickell’s defensive DNA rubs off (a former DC with the Buckeyes), the free fall should come to a cool halt this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fickell is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS as a single-digit favorite as a head coach with Ohio State and Cincinnati.

PLAY ON: at SMU (10/27)


CONNECTICUT (Offense - 7/4, Defense - 2/1, 39 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: OLD DOGS AND MORE YOUTH

When head coach Randy Edsall left the Huskies program after the 2010 season, he served five years as Maryland’s head coach and one season in the Detroit Lions’ front office. He then returned to Storrs to revive a suffocating program that went 24-49 after he left. The good news is a stagnant offense improved 9 points and nearly 100 YPG last year. The bad news is a treacherous defense declined 10 points and over 100 YPG. Worse, they were pushed around the field while managing to outgain only one foe, Cincinnati, in the final game of the campaign. New OC John Dunn, a Chicago Bears assistant and former OC with Edsall at Maryland, steps in. That didn’t work out well then, and we doubt it will again.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies have been outyarded in 14 of their last 15 games.

PLAY ON: vs. Cincinnati (9/29)


EAST CAROLINA (Offense - 5/3, Defense - 7/3, 41 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BLACKWELL THE MAGICIAN

From Bill Connelly of SB Nation: When you fire a good coach in the hopes of getting a great one, you end up burning your house to the ground. And it’s never good when you were the worst team in the land in Scoring Defense and Tackles for a Loss. With last year’s disaster, ECU has gone 6-18 since Montgomery took over and hasn’t had two years this bad since going 3-20 under John Thompson in 2003-04. The good news is all of the freshmen and sophomores who got lit up last year are now sophomores and juniors. And Montgomery brought in highly regarded defensive coordinator David Blackwell. In his last three years, Blackwell’s teams never allowed more than 20 points per game (15 PPG last year).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Pirates are 2-20 SU and 0-22 ATS versus conference foes with a winning record since 2010.

PLAY ON: vs. Houston (10/13)


HOUSTON (Offense - *6/4, Defense - 6/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CHARACTER RISK

One of four teams that did not start a senior last season, the Cougars return a total of 58 juniors and seniors. However, the controversial hire of Kendall Briles, son of disgraced head coach Art Briles and former OC at Baylor and Florida Atlantic (last year) is questionable, at best. It was Briles who asked a potential recruit, “Do you like white women? Because we have a lot of them at Baylor and they love football players.” Nonetheless, sophomore head coach Major Applewhite needs to address a defense that regressed 102 YPG behind 1st-year DC Mark Donofrio last season. Future NFL DT Ed Oliver, the best defensive player in the conference, needs to stand and deliver. If so, Applewhite figures to benefit.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Applewhite is 29-10 SU as a head coach and an assistant with the Houston Cougars.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. USF (10/27)


MEMPHIS (Offense - 7/4, Defense - 8/2, 34 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BURNERS ON

Memphis underclassmen started 41.6% of the team’s starts last season, meaning HC Mike Norvell brings back a highly experienced pack of Tigers. That’s good news considering major losses on the offense (QB Riley Ferguson, 4-year starting OL Gabe Kuhn, home run hitting WR Anthony Miller, and not to mention OC Darrell Dickey). Miller had 17 games of 100-plus receiving yards. Together they were a major reason that only 18% of the Tigers’ snaps came on third down last season (5th best in the nation). The good news is 4 starters (with 75 career starts) return on the OL. With Norvell averaging 9 wins and 42 PPG per season with Memphis, look for the aforementioned youngsters to carry the torch.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Memphis is 33-9 SU in it last 42 regular season games.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Houston (11/23)


NAVY (Offense - *4 /2, Defense - 5/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MALCOLM IN THE MIDDLE

How satisfying was Navy’s 7-win season last year? Mighty, when you consider the Middies played five teams that ended the season with 10 or more wins. In addition, they faced six of the top-20 rushing offenses in 2017 and held all of them, except Air Force, below their average. Plus, they also faced three of the top-16 passing offenses and held each of them under their average. The offensive surge was supplied by quarterbacks 1-and-1-A, namely Zach Abey and Malcom Perry, who were on the field as a tandem throughout the season. Abey rushed for 1,413 yards in 2017. In addition, RB/QB Malcom Perry rushed for 1,182 yards (646 as a QB). They’ll need to overcome the loss of 21 seniors from the two-deep depth charts, though.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Navy is 70-5 SU under Niumatalolo when entering the 4th quarter with the lead.

PLAY ON: vs. Army (12/8)


SMU (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 8/2, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WILD HORSES

After improving each and every year from the 1-win squad he inherited in 2015 to a 7-win bowler last season, Chad Morris has moved on to Arkansas. Instead, former Louisiana Tech and Cal head coach Sonny Dykes takes over. The son of Spike Dykes, the second winningest coach in Texas Tech history, Sonny was weaned under Hal Mumme and Mike Leach and as a result has ‘air raid’ in his DNA. His first move was to bring in OC Rhett Lashlee, former Auburn offensive coordinator under Gus Malzahn. With seasoned spread QB Ben Hicks, they inherit a signal caller with 6,499 passing yards and 52 TDs under his belt. Three RBs that rushed for over 2,100 yards last season are also back. This offense could be outrageous.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freshmen have started a total of 101 games for the Mustangs the last two seasons.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Houston (11/3)


TEMPLE (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 6/2, 41 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YES, HE WAS A #GREAT HIRE

It took a while but the Owls proved the hire of HC Geoff Collins to replace Matt Rhule was genius. After being out-gained in each of their first five games last season, Temple went on to out-gain each of its remaining eight foes as they lost the stats -134 YPG in their first five games in September, but won them by an average of 83 YPG the rest of the season. That’s a whopping 217 net YPG differential. And Collins had inherited a team that lost 50% of its starts to graduated seniors, to boot. He immediately implored the kids to his “#The STANDARD”, as they quickly learned that the standard expected from every player has been raised even higher last year. We can’t wait to see what’s in store this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Collins is the only coach to be a Broyles award nominee – for the nation’s best assistant coach – at three schools.

PLAY ON: at Connecticut (11/24) - *KEY


TULANE (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 6/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: THE CLIMB

The Green Wave’s slow but steady climb back to respectability (read: bowl game) under Willie Fritz fell frustratingly close last season when a bitter 41-38 season-ending loss at SMU denied Tulane what would have been its second bowl bid in 15 years. Nonetheless, Fritz welcomes back a bevy (36) of suddenly proficient sophomores and juniors – not to mention an awesome recruiting class led by no less than 18 three-and-four-star recruits. “We’ve gotten better every year we’ve been here,” confirmed Fritz. A deeply experienced offense features a rushing unit that ranked No. 20 in the nation last year, one that has rushed for 100-plus yards in 27 straight games. It’s time for the Wave to break on through to the other side.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Willie Fritz is 16-1 SU and 13-2 ATS versus .333 or less opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. SMU (10/20) - *KEY


TULSA (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 7/2, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: 10 UP AND 10 DOWN

We were as wrong as the day is long on our call about the Hurricane last season. Following a 10-win effort in 2016, Tulsa appeared ready to take the next big step with an offense that improved every season under Phil Montgomery. So what happened in its 10-loss season last year? Well for openers, it’s NEVER a good thing when both your offense and defense each slip over 100 YPG. Ravaged by injuries and a lack of experience, 14 starters played their first career game last season (9 freshmen). As a result, 5 bitter one-possession losses occurred. Unfortunately, the big bag of wind will face bowlers in all six of their away games in 2018. Nonetheless, a rebound appears in order.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tulsa is 30-8 SU and 29-9 ATS in conference games in which it scores 30 or more points.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Connecticut (11/3)


UCF (Offense - *6/3, Defense - 6/1, 40 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: UC FAST

Speed kills. And with former coach Scott Frost headed back to Nebraska, new head coach Josh Heupel realizes that in order to fill some mighty big shoes he will need to rely on an asset that he has an abundance of – speed. The top six blazing-fast rushers from last season lead the way. “We go five deep with RBs that can all take it to the house at anytime. These guys are going to be something special,” boasts QB McKenzie Milton. New coaches mean new schemes, but you wouldn’t know it as this power scheme fits the Knights like a glove. Coming off an historic record-setting season last year, the Knights know all eyes will be trained upon them in 2018.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: UCF was the No. 2 team in the nation in red zone defense in 2017.

PLAY AGAINST: at Memphis (10/13)


USF (Offense - 6/3, Defense - 5/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NOT SO STRONG

To say that Charlie Strong’s squad was hit hard by significant losses is an understatement. Gone is 3-year starting QB Quinton Flowers, owner of 42 school records, along with the top three rushers from 2017. Ouch. On the other side of the ball, the Bulls say goodbye to LB Auggie Sanchez, who made 50 straight starts and led USF in tackles each of the last three seasons. In addition, three of four starters on the DL are also gone, along with a pair of all-conference DBs. At least, for the first time since the 2011 season, the entire primary coaching staff returns. Nonetheless, we’re Strong believers and while this team will be down a notch or two, expect them to be bowling by season’s end.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USF is riding a school-record 20 straight appearances in the Top 25.

PLAY ON: vs. UCF (11/23)

[Udog]

Replies 4 (trend report) and 6 (Dunkel) have updated and are complete.

[Udog]

Reply 5 (Armadillo's write-up) has updated and is probably complete.

[Udog]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
Joe Nelson

Thursday Night College Football Opening Night

While college football had a brief preview last weekend with six teams in action the Thursday night schedule will officially allow the first full weekend of the season to commence. While lacking a prominent headlining game on the schedule, three major conference teams are in action while the Big Ten and the American are featuring rare opening night conference games.

Here is a quick look at the four games on the schedule Thursday night.

Match-up: Central Florida Knights at Connecticut Huskies
Venue: At Rentschler Field in East Hartford, Connecticut
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 30, 7:00 PM ET, ESPNU
Line: UCF -23, Over/Under 75
Last Meeting: 2017 at UCF, UCF (-38) 49-24

Central Florida is a fitting team to kick off the 2018 schedule Thursday night as they were the only team to go undefeated in the 2017 season, even claiming the national title locally while finishing the season with an impressive Peach Bowl win over Auburn on New Year’s Day. The success had a cost as Scott Frost left for Nebraska after just two seasons and another former Big XII quarterback is now leading the way in Orlando with Josh Heupel hired from Missouri where he was the offensive coordinator. Heupel has McKenzie Milton under center to help the transition with Milton passing for over 4,000 yards last season with 37 touchdowns and only nine interceptions.

Connecticut has limited expectations this season, the second campaign in Randy Edsall’s second stop leading the Huskies. This squad finished just 3-9 last season with a major transition moving toward an up-tempo offense that leans on the passing game. The numbers improved with scoring and production up dramatically last season but the defensive numbers worsened from Bob Diaco’s 2016 squad by a similar increment. Few starters return on the rebuilding defense for 2018 but this should be a team that can take another step forward offensively.

UCF had just survived a close call at SMU last season when they hosted Connecticut as an 8-0 squad that had climbed into the top 15 of the national polls. The Knights grabbed an early lead but wound up caught in a close game into the fourth quarter as the Huskies trailed by only 11 before UCF added three fourth quarter touchdowns to win comfortably 49-24 but finishing well short of the massive spread with only a 519-413 yardage edge for the Knights.

This year the spread has been adjusted downward significantly but the total is priced about 10 points higher than last season with Connecticut expected to be a productive offensive team that passes often. Quarterback David Pindell had modest numbers taking just over a third of the snaps for Connecticut last season and like Milton he is smaller in stature than prototypical quarterbacks and has good mobility as the Huskies will aim for a shootout result.

Historical Trends: Central Florida is 15-21-1 ATS as a road favorite since 2003, Connecticut is 29-18-1 ATS as a home underdog since 2001.


Match-up: Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers
Venue: At Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 30, 8:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Purdue -1.5, Over/Under 52.5
Last Meeting: 2017 at Northwestern, Northwestern (-6.5) 23-13

Northwestern and Purdue both made the postseason last year out of the Big Ten West but both could face tougher paths this season. The West teams draw five of nine conference games on the road this season and both squads will play two of three crossover games with heavyweight East squads. The non-conference schedules for both teams are also difficult as this toss-up opening game will carry a lot of weight towards the season goals.

Last season Northwestern had a 20-0 lead in the first half before Purdue rallied for a competitive finish, winding up with a yardage edge for the game but never getting closer than the 10-point final margin in the second half. The Boilermakers nearly spoiled the favorite cover before committing the only turnover in the game inside the 10-yard line with about a minute to go. The Wildcats have won in this series each of the past four seasons and in six of the last nine meetings since 2008, going 5-2 ATS in those games.

Northwestern won 45-17 at Purdue two years ago but that was before Jeff Brohm took over the team. The former Western Kentucky head coach led a successful first season with nearly as many wins as Darrell Hazell had produced in four seasons. The offense displayed much more success running the ball last season while the defense made a massive improvement statistically. The defense will be the biggest area of concern this season with heavy personnel losses from last season while the offense has many key players back including both quarterbacks that split time last season with David Blough and Elijah Sindelar expected to share time again this season.

Pat Fitzgerald is entering his 13th season at Northwestern and the program has been to three straight bowl games with 27 wins the past three years combined. While Wisconsin is the favorite in the West, many see Northwestern as second in line after posting a 7-2 conference record last season. This game will be critical in any entertainment of that notion as the next two Big Ten games will be against Michigan and Michigan State. Clayton Thorson returns after a steady 2017 season at quarterback but 1,300-yard rusher Justin Jackson will need to be replaced.

Historical Trends: Northwestern is 10-6 ATS at Purdue since 1982, Purdue is 15-26 ATS at home since 2012.


Match-up: New Mexico State Aggies at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Venue: At TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 30, 7:00 PM ET, BTN
Line: Minnesota -20.5, Over/Under 45.5
Last Meeting: 2013 at New Mexico State, Minnesota (-16.5) 44-21

New Mexico State was one of the teams that played last Saturday and the Aggies had a forgettable opening performance with very poor results for the offense in a 26-7 loss hosting Wyoming. It appears that replacing long-time quarterback Tyler Rogers will be a challenge as the Aggies posted just 144 passing yards behind Matt Romero and Nick Jeanty. The Aggies also wound up with negative rushing yards in the game and the only score for the team came with 1:16 remaining and the outcome well past decided.

New Mexico State is on the road the next two weeks with this a tricky turnaround going from Saturday night and traveling to Minnesota for a Thursday night game. The poor result last week sours momentum from a great 2017 season with a 7-6 finish in Doug Martin’s fifth season, getting the team’s first bowl appearance and win since 1960. The Aggies now have little margin for error for a return trip playing an Independent schedule. While some challenges for the offense replacing Rogers along with the top rusher and receiver from last season were expected, the defense was considered a possible strength with nine starters back after showing great improvement last season. Wyoming rushed for 312 yards last week on 5.5 yards per carry which should mean a favorable opportunity for Minnesota.

Amidst great self-promotion and fanfare P.J. Fleck’s first season with the Gophers fizzled as a 3-0 start wound up with a 5-7 finish in the standings and only two Big Ten wins. The offense was among the worst of all power conference programs with only 22 points per game and 309 yards per game. The answer this season will be a freshman quarterback as Zack Annexstad was a mild surprise to win the job this summer. The Gophers do have a veteran offensive line and should remain a quality defensive team looking for a breakthrough second season.

The opening result for New Mexico State has meant a growing favorite spread for Minnesota with the Gophers failing as a heavy favorite in opening games the past two seasons in narrow wins. After being shutout in each of the final two games of the season last year pressure will grow on Fleck and with a more challenging game next week at home this is a critical game for Minnesota but also a spot where the Aggies, with a game under their belt, can certainly play better that they did last week.

Historical Trends: New Mexico State is 16-23-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2012, Minnesota is 17-24 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.


Match-up: Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Tulane Green Wave
Venue: At Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: Thursday, Aug. 30, 8:00 PM ET, CBSC
Line: Wake Forest -5.5, Over/Under 55
Last Meeting: 2016 at Wake Forest, Wake Forest (-14.5) 7-3

These teams opened the 2016 season in Winston-Salem with a 7-3 win for Wake Forest in a game with no second half scoring. Wake Forest won despite only 10 first downs and 175 total yards in what was a great defensive showing for Tulane in the debut of Willie Fritz on the sidelines. Fritz led a very successful two-year run at Georgia Southern but has gone 4-8 and 5-7 the past two seasons at Tulane. The Wave have a team capable of taking the next step with most of last season’s offense back in action but the schedule ahead is difficult, particularly on the road. For a bowl season Tulane will need an upset at some point and this home opener is likely one of the best opportunities.

Tulane only lost twice at home last season falling to South Florida by six and to Cincinnati by one and wins at home over Army and Houston offer some promise. Jonathan Banks is an experienced quarterback that had solid production passing and rushing last season while LSU transfer Justin McMillan is also on the roster. Tulane had a season of regression on defense last year and with minimal returning experience improvement isn’t likely for a Wave team that allowed 5.4 yards per rush last season.

Wake Forest had problems stopping the run last season and one of the worst losses of the season came against another triple-option team falling 38-24 at Georgia Tech. The Demon Deacons have returning experience but replacing long time quarterback John Wolford has been a challenge. Kendall Hinton has been suspended for the first three games while Jamie Newman is injured as freshman Sam Hartman is expected to start. He’ll likely lean on the top returning receiver Greg Dortch who can also be a factor on special teams.

Wake Forest won eight games last season and Dave Clawson has returned the program to a respectable place. A breakthrough season of contention isn’t expected in the tough ACC Atlantic. Holding on to a bowl bid isn’t a given either as this is an important game in reaching the needed win count for Wake Forest as well with Notre Dame on the non-conference schedule and no easy outs on the ACC slate.

Historical Trends: Wake Forest is 12-18-2 ATS as a road favorite since 1982, Tulane is 22-30-2 ATS as a home underdog since 2004.

[Udog]

College Essentials - Week 1
Tony Mejia

The first weekend of the college football season featured only two games where FBS teams squared off against one another and produced an upset right out of the gate.

Hawai’I had a great weekend, capturing the Little League World Series less than 24 hours after its largest university held off 17-point favorite Colorado State to start 1-0 in Mountain West play. Wyoming won its first game post-Josh Allen thanks to an impressive defensive effort in a 29-7 victory at New Mexico State.

We’re now off and running with every other team set to debut in games scheduled daily beginning Thursday.

Here’s a look at the games I’m most excited about between Friday and Monday, a top ten that you can’t miss and should be wagering on if so inclined.

Friday, Aug. 31

Western Kentucky at Wisconsin (-37.5/52.5), 9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Badgers nearly ran the table last season, losing in the Big Ten Championship when they failed to get one last scoring drive against Ohio State. With Jonathan Taylor back to run behind a loaded offensive line, hopes are high in Madison. The Hilltoppers lost five of six to end Mike Sanford’s first season with a thud, losing to Georgia State in the Care Bowl. They’ll play five running backs and are breaking in a new starting quarterback in senior Drew Eckels, so keep that in mind if you’re tempted to take the points. The Badgers will begin answering the question of whether they have the firepower at receiver with Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis both suspended.

San Diego State at Stanford (-14.5/49), 9:00 p.m. ET, FS1: After a tough loss at USC last September, the Cardinal dropped out of the national title conversation by losing at the Aztecs as an eight-point favorite. SDSU’s star running back Rashaad Penny is now with the Seahawks but there are high hopes that Juwan Washington can follow adequately in his footsteps. He hasn’t even been practicing due to the risk of injury, so Stanford will have to deal with a fresh back. Counterpart Bryce Love should already be playing in the pros, so we’ll see if his gamble to stay in school pays off beyond getting a degree in human biology to realize his other dream of becoming a pediatrician. Special kid. The Aztecs will have a strong plan in pace with Rocky Long having so many defensive starters back, so it will be on K.J. Costello to ensure the Stanford passing game takes advantage after failing to capitalize on the room to succeed Love’s presence provides.


Saturday, Sept. 1

Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma (-21/68.5), 12:00 p.m. ET, FOX: Points are expected to pile up here as early numbers have placed this total near 70 and the ‘over’ should still be a popular play. It’s Lane Kiffin vs. Lincoln Riley, two offensive masterminds, going at in a season opener, so they’ll have had plenty of time in the lab to show off a few wrinkles that could overwhelm the defense. The Owls are stepping up in weight class significantly and haven’t seen a quarterback emerge to take the reins, so that’s going to be a concern in a hostile atmosphere in Norman. It would spice things up if Oklahoma transfer Chris Robison starts for Florida Atlantic. Kyler Murray replacing Baker Mayfield was always the expectation, so now it’s time to see if the former elite recruit who never lost in high school can produce at a high level consistently before beginning his journey in the A’s farm system. The Sooners are laying a big number, so he’ll need to be sharp to keep this from getting too interesting. Impressive OU RB Rodney Anderson will shoulder a heavy load, but FAU’s Devin Singletary is also a pro. It’s expected to be sunny, so weather shouldn’t be a concern.

Washington at Auburn (-1.5/49), 3:30 p.m ET, ABC: This one reigns as the top matchup of the weekend given the rankings and title aspirations both harbor. Huskies QB Jake Browning has gotten a reputation as a player who struggles in the biggest moments and took a step back after a brilliant sophomore year, so we’ll see how he attacks his senior season. Counterpart Jarrett Stidham is a potential No. 1 NFL overall pick given his arm and athleticism. Going up against SEC defenses will test him weekly, but don’t sell Washington short. Taylor Rapp is a tremendous safety leading one of the country’s top secondaries to the table. If Greg Gaines is back to his old self up front, Auburn will have some trouble moving it effectively. The dome at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium takes any weather concerns out the window and certainly gives the SEC’s Tigers the edge since their fan base will help create a great atmosphere and make life difficult for an offense that will lean on elite running back Myles Gaskin. It’s easy to dismiss what looks to be the Pac-12’s top team entering the season due to the league’s lack of success over the past few years but that would be foolish in this case. Washington has the coaching talent to take advantage of a season opener in which Gus Malzahn may believe his defense is ahead of the offensive, potentially slowing this contest down.

West Virginia (-10/61) vs. Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: The Mountaineers have the nation’s most prolific returning passer in Will Grier and genuine Big 12 title aspirations, so it’s no surprise to see them as a double-digit favorite against the rebuilding Vols. There is significant SEC talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball, that West Virginia must contend with in order to move it. The prospect of WR David Sills and Gary Jennings helping Grier light up a Vols’ defensive backfield that will start a pair of true freshmen. New head coach Jeremy Pruitt can coach and scheme up a defense, but this will be a tough first test for him and his staff in Charlotte. Tennessee has entrusted Jarrett Guarantano over Stanford transfer Keller Chryst with the keys to the offense despite a shaky freshman season, so the offense is somewhat of a mystery. Thunderstorms are a possibility here as well.

Michigan at Notre Dame (PK/47), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC: We’ve got ourselves a pick’em here in addition to the possibility of inclement weather, so I’d wait until closer to kickoff to pick a side in this potential classic. Jim Harbaugh is entering a critical fourth season in Ann Arbor and has his best quarterback since arriving back at his alma mater with Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson at the controls. Unfortunately, talented receiver Tarik Black has been ruled out for a few months with an injury so Michigan will be down a playmaker in South Bend. The Wolverines topped the country in pass defense last season and will pose a major challenge for Irish QB Brandon Wimbush with so many starters back. Sophomore Ian Book might get in a series if the junior incumbent can’t produce results early but has remained the backup despite helping take down LSU in January’s Citrus Bowl. There are plenty of moving parts here. The last meeting between these former annual rivals saw Notre Dame help usher in the Harbaugh era with a 31-0 home win in 2014 that spelled the beginning of the end for Brady Hoke’s tenure. How will Brian Kelly fare now? Whichever team loses faces a major buzzkill.

Louisville vs. Alabama (-24.5/60), 8 p.m. ET, ABC: Nick Saban has another tremendous defense in place, but the Crimson Tide will have to prove it on the field given the roster turnover. Redshirt senior Christian Miller and juniors Raekwon Davis and Anfernee Jennings are worthy leaders who should make life difficult for Lamar Jackson’s replacement, Jawon Pass. Bobby Petrino will have a strong offensive game plan in place with so long to prepare for a daunting challenge, so we’ll likely see this QB race between Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts play out immediately. They’ve been listed as co-starters. The Tide are a 25-point favorite in Orlando, where rain is always a concern. Will having a new set of coordinators and a host of new faces derail the Tide or have them ready to show out. The ‘Ville will need standout WR Jaylen Smith to prove he’s a quick learner. He underwent an emergency appendectomy at the start of fall camp and is still coming along, which is unfortunate timing given the opening game opposition.

BYU at Arizona (-11.5/60.5), 10:45 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Cougars are looking to bounce back from their first losing season since 2004 and have chosen Tanner Mangum over highly touted freshman Zach Wilson to lead the offense out on the field in Tucson. Former Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin has taken over after the Rich Rodriguez era ended and promises to push tempo in order to make QB Khalil Tate continue to shine since he’s got Lamar Jackson-like skills. This should be compelling given where both programs are entering the season. BYU tight end Matt Bushman was a freshman All-American last season but wasn’t handed the starting job, which is likely a message thing. With WR Dylan Collie and RB Squally Canada in the mix, Mangum will have weapons to move the ball on the road. The speculation is he’ll have a long leash. The ‘Cats will have to give Tate time and room to work without suspended senior left tackle Layth Friekh after losing three starters to graduation. The other key returnee, center Nathan Eldridge, has been hampered by knee issues and may not be up to speed if he can go. Getting the offensive line prepared has been one of Sumlin’s top objectives upon arrival.


Sunday, Sept. 2

Miami, FL (-3.5/48) vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The luster off the Bayou Bengals since they’ve been denied double-digit victories for four years and counting. The chances of Ed Orgeron changing that this season don’t look great and will be virtually non-existent if they fail at Arlington’s AT&T Stadium given the schedule ahead. LSU’s defense will have to replace a number of key figures but has a chance to again be solid with coordinator Dave Aranda at the controls. The Tigers have a new quarterback too, though Orgeron won’t say who he’s chosen between Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow and lightly experienced sophomore Myles Brennan. Miami hadn’t won 10 games since their 2003 team finished in the top-5 but won its first 10 last year in Mark Richt’s second season at the helm. They were beaten in their final three games last season but return plenty of talent on both sides of the coin, including QB Malik Rosier and RB Travis Homer. Rosier has been streaky, so improved consistency will likely end up being the key to this game and the Hurricanes’ season. Keep an eye on the matchup between UM receiver Ahmonn Richards and LSU corner Greedy Williams.


Monday, Sept. 3

Virginia Tech at Florida State (-7/57), 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN: The Willie Taggart era in Tallahassee opens against one of his new conference’s top programs, so there’s the potential for a rough start. Of course, the ‘Noles could also hit the ground running if Deondre Francois can pick up where he left off before being injured last season. He beat out James Blackman for the QB job and has a lot of talent to work with against a Hokies defense that lost a significant amount of talent. Bud Foster is one of the best in the business but it’s tough to expect to put together one of his typical stingy units immediately, especially since this opener is on the road. In Josh Jackson, Virginia Tech has perhaps the ACC’s top offensive threat and is capable of stealing this one. The schedules ease up for both teams in the first few weeks, so this is no deal-breaker even though it doubles as a crucial league game right out of the gate. The winner is set up to go on a run, so our Monday night college fill-in carries major consequences.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday games

Central Florida went 13-0 LY, after going 0-12 in 2015; now they’ve got a new coach, with Frost off to Nebraska. UCF won 49-24, 24-16 in its last two games with UConn; Knights have QB with 23 career starts- their offensive line has 85 career starts, which is good. UCF covered seven of its last ten road games; they’re 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a favorite. UConn is 17-44 the last five years; since 2014, they’re 5-10 as home underdogs. Huskies have a senior QB with 4 career starts; their OL has 63 career starts.

Northwestern won its last four games with Purdue, winning 45-17/38-14 in last two visits here. Both teams have 100+ starts returning on OL; Wildcats have a senior QB with 39 career starts. Northwestern is 7-6 vs spread in its last 14 road games; they’ve got seven starters back on both sides of the ball. Purdue has nine starters back on offense, only four on defense; they covered seven of last eight tries as home favorites. Boilers lost three of last four season openers that were against I-A opponents. Purdue has two QB’s with experience; which one will start?

New Mexico State got whacked 29-7 at home by Wyoming Saturday; Aggies were outgained 449-135, had 51 penalty yards and minus-9 rushing yards- not good. Since 2015, State is 9-8 vs spread as road underdogs- they’ve got 17 starters back, 9 on defense, a new QB and an OL with 103 starts. Minnesota has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’ve got a new QB. Since 2015, Gophers are 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite.

Wake Forest QB Hinton (2 starts LY) is suspended for this game. Deacons (-17) nipped Tulane 7-3 at home in the 2016 season opener. Wake has 14 starters back (8 on offense, 4 on OL- 132 returning starts!!!); they are 1-3 as road favorites the last eight years (0-2 under Clawson)- they covered eight of last 10 non-ACC games. Tulane has 14 starters back, 9 on offense (91 starts on OL); Green Wave is 3-2 as home underdogs under Fritz. Tulane has a senior QB with 11 career starts. Last two years, ACC teams are 8-4 vs spread when facing an AAC opponent.

Friday/Saturday’s best 13 games

Colorado won its last three games with Colorado State 17-3/44-7/27-24; Buffaloes are 12-8 as favorites under MacIntyre, but were just 1-4 LY. Buffs’ QB Montez has 15 career starts; they’ve got only 10 starters back, four on offense. Colorado State (last week’s info). Under Bobo, Rams are 6-8 vs spread out of conference; they covered nine of last 12 games as an underdog. Last three year, Pac-12 teams are 18-15-1 vs spread when facing a Mountain West foe.

Northern Illinois (+3) upset Iowa 30-27 in last meeting five years ago; Huskies covered four of last five games vs Big 14 opponents. NIU has 14 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 111 starters back. Huskies are 10-3 vs spread as home underdogs under Carey; their QB is a sop with only 7 career starts. Iowa is 12-22-1 vs spread in its last 35 home games; they’ve got 13 starters back, 7 on offense. Hawkeyes’ QB is a junior with 13 starts. Last three years, MAC teams are 19-10-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.

Maryland (+17) went to Austin LY and shocked Texas 51-41, running ball for 263 yards, but Terps had a terrible off-season, with a player dying in conditioning workouts. Hard to tell what effect that will have, but it won’t be good. Maryland is 5-7 vs spread at home with Durkin; their OL has 105 returning starts, but their QB has almost no experience. Texas covered four of five on road in Herman’s first year; Longhorns have two experienced QB’s- their OL has 102 starts. Last four years, Big X teams are 6-5-1 vs spread when playing a Big 14 opponent.

Vanderbilt won its last three games with Middle Tennessee, winning 47-24 (-3) in last meeting here in ‘16. Commodores have 12 starters back, 7 on offense- their senior QB Shurmur (30 starts) is son of the NJ Giants’ coach. Vandy is 13-14 vs spread at home under Mason, 4-8 when a home favorite. MTSU has 17 starters back, 9 on defense; senior QB Stockstill (32 starts) is the coach’s son. Blue Raiders are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs. Last three years, SEC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread against Conference USA opponents.

Arizona (-1.5) beat BYU 18-16 in last meeting two years ago, on a neutral field. Arizona debut for Kevin Sumlin, who was 13-19-1 as home favorite in his last job (Tex A&M). Since 2012, Wildcats are 11-13-1 as home favorites; they’ve got 16 starters back, 9 on defense- their mobile junior QB Tate has 9 starts. Arizona’s OL has 66 returning starts. BYU has senior QB with 21 starts; their OL has only 39 returning starts. Cougars have 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; they’re 7-3 as road underdogs under Sitake.

Long trip into SEC country (Atlanta) for Washington squad that has senior QB with 39 career starts, an OL with 97 career starts. Under Petersen, U-Dub is 17-14 vs spread away from home. Huskies have 17 starters back, 9 on defense. Since 2014, Auburn is just 5-14-1 vs spread in out of conference games; Tigers have junior QB with 17 starts- their OL has only 40 returning starts. Auburn has 13 returning starters, 7 on defense. Last seven years, SEC teams are 8-3 vs Pac-12 opponents, but Pac-12 teams won both matchups LY.

Ole Miss-Tex Tech haven’t met since 2009; last two years, Rebels were 2-6 vs spread outside the SEC. Ole Miss has 15 starters back, 8 on offense- their OL has 102 returning starts. Rebels’ QB is a senior with only 5 career starts. Tech has a new QB; they’ve got 10 starters back on defense- their OL has 93 returning starts, but only one starter is a senior. Under Kingsbury, Red Raiders are 9-8-1 vs spread out of conference. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Houston, so Tech will have crowd edge.

West Virginia has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 65 returning starts, the senior QB has 16 career starts. Mountaineers covered only one of last nine neutral field games. Tennessee has a new coach, their 5th coach in 11 years. Since 2012, Vols are 12-15 vs spread out of conference. Tennessee’s OL has 51 returning starts; their grad transfer QB had 13 career starts at Stanford. Last seven years, Big X teams are 11-10 vs spread when facing an SEC opponent. This game is in Charlotte, NC, so crowd support should be fairly even.

North Carolina QB Surratt is suspended here for selling his sneakers; some of UNC’s offensive line are also out. Cal (+12) won 35-30 in Chapel Hill last season, throwing for 363 yards. Tar Heels have 13 starters back, 8 on defense; their OL has only 19 returning starts- since 2015, UNC is 10-4 vs spread on road. California covered nine of its last 12 home games; they’ve got 18 starters back, 10 on offense. Bears’ junior QB has 12 starts; their OL has 76 returning starts. Last four years, ACC teams are 8-3 vs spread when facing a Pac-12 team.

Home side won last four Michigan-Notre Dame games; teams last met in 2014. Irish won 31-0 in last meeting here. Wolverines are 6-8 vs spread on road under Harbaugh; their new QB is Ole Miss transfer Patterson, who started 10 games at Ole Miss. Michigan has 17 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 54 returning starts. Notre Dame has 15 returning starters, 9 on defense; their OL has 65 returning starters, their QB has 12. Since 2011, Irish are 14-11 vs spread at home- they covered their last three games as a home underdog.

Alabama hasn’t announced their starting QB yet; obviously both are good. Crimson Tide covered four of its last five season openers. Alabama has 103 returning starts on its OL, but has only three returning starters on defense- they’ve got injury problems at linebacker. Louisville is 6-4 vs spread in its last ten games as an underdog; Cardinals have a new QB- their OL has 79 returning starts, their defense has only four returning starters. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Orlando.

Miami has 14 starters back, 7 on both sides of ball; Hurricanes’ OL has 55 returning starts, their QB has 14 starts. Miami covered only one of its last seven games on a neutral field. LSU has five starters back on both sides of ball; their OL has only 35 returning starts. Tigers will also have a new QB. Since 2012, LSU is 11-17 vs spread outside the SEC. Last three years, ACC teams are 20-14-1 vs spread when playing SEC opponents. This game is in Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, TX. These teams haven’t met since 2005.

Virginia Tech-Florida St split their last four meetings; they haven’t met since 2012. Tech has 12 starters back, 7 on offense; their OL has 51 returning starts. Hokies’ sophomore QB has 13 starts. Since 2013, Tech covered six of last eight games as road underdogs. First game at Florida State for Taggart, who is coaching his third different school in three years. Seminoles have 12 starters back, but only four on defense; their OL has 90 career starts. Looks like Francois returns at QB after missing almost all of LY with an injury. Since 2014, FSU is 10-14 as a home favorite.

[Udog]

Armadillo: College football trends for games that didn’t make my top 13……..

13) San Diego State (+8) upset Stanford 20-17 last year; Aztecs are 12-6 vs spread in their last 18 road games. Stanford is 3-7 in its last ten games as home favorites.

12) Since 2014, UCLA is 8-16 vs spread at home; they play Oklahoma next week. Cincinnati has a new QB, only 21 starts back on OL; they’re 13-10 vs spread in last 23 road games.

11) Since 2012, Florida Atlantic is 20-7-1 as a road underdog; Oklahoma covered 13 of last 17 tries as a home favorite- they play UCLA next week.

10) Wake Forest’s QB is suspended for this game; Deacons are 10-6 vs spread in their last 16 road games. Tulane is 7-5 vs spread at home under Fritz.

9) Since 2011, Navy is 24-14 vs spread on road; Hawai’i allowed 653 yards in their upset win last week at Colorado State, but 537 of those were thru air. Since 2011, Rainbows are 8-15-1 as a home underdog.

8) Syracuse is 7-3 vs spread on road under Babers; Western Michigan is 7-5 vs spread in its last 12 home games. Last seven years, ACC teams are 16-10 vs spread when playing MAC opponents.

7) Central Michigan is 7-3 as road underdogs under coach Bonamego; since 2015, Kentucky is 4-10 as a home favorite.

6) Marshall’s QB has 20 career starts, but they were at I-AA Wagner; Thundering Herd is 10-3-1 vs spread in its last 14 games as road underdogs. Miami (-1.5) lost 31-26 at Marshall LY; Red Hawks are 4-7 vs spread in their last 11 home games.

5) Indiana won its last two games with FIU, 34-13/36-22; Hoosiers are 11-15 vs spread in their last 26 road games. FIU was 4-0 as a home underdog LY, in Butch Davis’ first year there.

4) SMU won its last three games with North Texas: 54-32, 34-21, 31-13; Mustangs are 6-4-1 vs spread in their last 11 road games. Since 2011, Mean Green is 14-7 as home favorites.

3) Since 2008, Boise State is 36-16 as road favorites; they’re 12-8 vs spread in last 20 non-MW games. Since 2008, Troy is 3-4 as home underdogs.

2) Since 2012, UNLV is 21-8 vs spread as road underdogs; since ’11, USC is 25-17 as home favorites.

1) A final word on betting college football, from Alex Kolodziej, betting writer for The Score:

“…….however, a warning: More teams mean more opportunities, and more opportunities mean increased betting volume. And I’ll be the first to say that when Week 1 of college football arrives and there are 40 more games to choose from than the opening week of the NFL, there will be a raging impulse to take every nugget from your Phil Steele magazine and apply them.

Do not listen to that impulse. Be selective. Or be broke.”

[Udog]

[Udog]