2018 nfl football sneak peek at teams/predictions/news/notes/picks etc. !

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Jets QB play strong vs. sluggish Falcons
August 10, 2018

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) Sam Darnold sparkled in his NFL debut, Teddy Bridgewater looked sharp and healthy, and the New York Jets earned the franchise's first preseason home shutout by beating the sluggish Atlanta Falcons 17-0 on Friday night.

Darnold, the No. 3 overall draft pick in April, was the Jets' third quarterback of the game, following Josh McCown and Bridgewater. The former USC star was greeted by loud cheers and a standing ovation as he jogged onto the field at MetLife Stadium with 8:41 in the first half.

Darnold's first series ended in a punt and his non-throwing left hand was checked out by trainers on the sideline after it was stepped on - but he was fine and wore a glove in the second half.

He got the crowd on its feet again just before halftime, throwing a 14-yard touchdown pass to Charles Johnson that gave New York a 17-0 lead.

The 21-year-old Darnold showed the poise of a veteran on the drive while completing six straight passes to get to the Falcons 3. He would've had a seventh consecutive completion, but his throw into the end zone was dropped by Johnson. Darnold went right back to Johnson on the next play, and the receiver caught a 3-yard pass for a TD - but was called for offensive pass interference. On third-and-14, Darnold again threw to Johnson while rolling to his right and zipping in a pass to his receiver for the score.

Darnold, who finished 13 of 18 for 96 yards, missed the first three days of training camp before his representatives and the Jets agreed on details of his fully guaranteed four-year, $30.25 million deal that included a $20 million signing bonus. He quickly made up for the missed time, and is being given every opportunity to win the starting job.

RAIDERS 16, LIONS 10

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - Coach Jon Gruden was a winner in his return to the sideline for Oakland when the Raiders got a touchdown pass from Connor Cook.

in a 16-10 victory over the Detroit Lions on Friday night.

Gruden was welcomed back warmly to the Coliseum for his first game here as Raiders coach since beating the Jets in a playoff game Jan. 12, 2001. Gruden was traded to Tampa Bay after that season and has spent the past nine years as an ESPN analyst.

Raiders owner Mark Davis lured Gruden back to the sideline with a 10-year contract worth a reported $100 million following a disappointing six-win season under Jack Del Rio.

The Gruden era appeared to get off to a rousing start when Marshawn Lynch ran 60 yards for a TD on the third snap, but the score was called back on a holding penalty by rookie tackle Kolton Miller.

Oakland settled for a punt on the only drive with starting quarterback Derek Carr, but scored three times in five drives with Cook at the helm. Cook threw a 7-yard TD pass to Ryan Switzer in the second quarter and led Oakland to a pair of field goals by rookie Eddy Pineiro. Cook finished 11 for 19 for 141 yards.

The Lions also welcomed a new coach in Matt Patricia, who opted to rest star quarterback Matthew Stafford. Matt Cassel got the start and went 5 for 10 for 46 yards, leading Detroit to one score on three drives, with Ameer Abdullah capping it with a 1-yard TD run .

Lynch once again sat during the national anthem. Lynch also sat for the anthem all of last season but never gave a reason for his decision. No other players on either team demonstrated during the anthem, with the Lions all standing together with locked arms.

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Saturday, August 11, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
9:00 PM Minnesota Vikings Denver Broncos
10:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals


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NFL PRESEASON RECORD:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

08/10/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
08/09/2018 10-14-0 41.66% -27.00
08/02/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

TOTALS...........13- 17........43.33%.....-28.50

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Saturday's Top Wager
August 10, 2018

By Tom Wilkinson

NFL Preseason Betting – Vikings vs. Broncos

The best team to bet in the preseason in recent seasons has been the Minnesota Vikings, as they are 14-3 under head coach Mike Zimmer. The Vikings visit the Denver Broncos on Saturday night in a game that can be seen on NFL Network.

Each team has a new starting quarterback, as the Vikings have Kirk Cousins, while the Broncos have Case Keenum. Neither quarterback will play long, so it will be a battle of the backups. Let’s look at Saturday’s game and NFL picks.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Denver Broncos
Date and Time: Saturday, August 11, 2018, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, CO
NFL Odds: Pick, O/U 35.5
Vikings vs. Broncos TV Coverage: NFL Network

The Vikings are expected to give Cousins a series or two before turning things over to the backups, while the Broncos will give Keenum at least one series. The Vikings are dealing with a lot of injuries, especially on the offensive line. Pat Elflein, Nick Easton and Mike Remmers are all out. The Vikings have said that no matter who plays they have to get the job done. "We're a unit; no matter what happens, we got each other's backs and it's next man up mentality, so that's the way we've always been and that's how we always going to be," said Aviante Collins to the media,

The line will be expected to protect new quarterback Cousins on Saturday night. “It’s important to get out there and have a good taste in our mouths, leaving the game.” Cousins said to the media, “And when you only get a handful of snaps, if you don’t start fast, you don’t finish strong. You have to come out the gates ready to go or otherwise your opportunities are gone and you don’t really have time to ease in.”

On the other side, Keenum will be playing against his former team. He led the Vikings to a 13-3 regular season a year ago and took them to the NFC title game. Keenum will be going against the top defense in the league in his series or two of action. “The starters probably play [a] max [of] two series,” coach Vance Joseph said to the media, “After that, we’ve got to figure out what’s best for our football team.”

Players to Watch

Preseason games are usually decided by backup quarterbacks. The Vikings have two former Denver quarterbacks in Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter. They should get the bulk of the playing time on Saturday night. Both players will want to show that Denver made a mistake by letting them go.

The Broncos backups are Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly and neither player has looked very good in camp. Lynch was expected to be a franchise quarterback for Denver, but he has yet to show he is capable and he hasn’t even nailed down the backup job behind Keenum.

Key Stats

When it comes to the preseason I really only look at one statistic and that is the coaches’ record. I definitely have to pay attention to the Vikings under Zimmer, as they have been great. Last year was the first non-winning season for the Vikings in the preseason under Zimmer and they still went 2-2.

The Broncos did go 4-0 in the preseason a year ago under Joseph. It will be interesting to see if that unbeaten record was due more to Joseph being in his first season or if it is something more than that.

Vikings vs. Broncos Picks

I think the Vikings are the better team on both sides of the ball. I also think that there are some things in their favor for this game on Saturday night. They have a coach in Zimmer who has shown he wants to win preseason games and I think their backup quarterbacks have some extra motivation facing their former team. I also don’t like what I have seen so far from the Denver backup quarterbacks. I will take the Vikings to win this game on Saturday night.

Vikings vs. Broncos Pick: Vikings
Vikings vs. Broncos Score Prediction: Vikings 17, Broncos 10

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Saturday's Preseason Essentials
August 10, 2018

Saturday, Aug. 11

Minnesota at Denver (PK, 35), 9 p.m. ET: The Vikings are the last of this season’s three NFC co-favorites to debut and will also see Kirk Cousins make his first appearance despite the absence of three starting offensive linemen. The Vikes have been cursed by injuries up front early on, losing guard Nick Easton to a neck injury that is expected to be season-ending. Running back Dalvin Cook is also poised to return, although head coach Mike Zimmer hasn’t divulged whether he’d throw him out there this early. With Jerick McKinnon gone, the Vikings will lean on Latavius Murray as Cook’s backup but are hoping another back can step up, so Mack Brown, Mike Boone, Roc Thomas and Johnny Stanton looking to impress. Trevor Siemian and Kyle Sloter, both of whom have spent time with the Broncos team they’ll run into here, are vying to back up Cousins and can make a good impression by playing well against many former teammates they used to practice against daily. Zimmer has been a cash cow for bettors since taking over with the Vikings, winning 14 of 17 preseason games. He’s a perfect 4-0 in exhibition openers, winning the last two on the road.

Vance Joseph’s first season at the helm was a disaster, so he’ll be under some pressure to get his team to perform early. Case Keenum comes over from the Vikes to try and stabilize the quarterback position and has hit the ground running. He’ll play no more than two series before giving way to Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly, who will end up locked into a battle for No. 2 despite one being a 2016 first-round pick and the other falling to pick No. 253 a year later. It definitely sounds like the offense will again be in serious trouble if Keenum can’t stay healthy all season, but there is a lot of young personnel worth monitoring in second-round pick Courtland Sutton, fourth-rounder DaeSean Hamilton 2017 undrafted product Tim Patrick, all receivers. The defense will again be the backbone of the team even with Aqib Talib moved to the Rams, and could excel again if No. 5 pick Bradley Chubb can be dominant as a rookie. Joseph had a perfect preseason in his first year. Denver has won its last three exhibition games at Mile High.

L.A. Chargers at Arizona (-2.5/36.5), 10 p.m. ET: With a more accurate kicker, the Chargers would’ve been a playoff team in 2017. Despite little homefield advantage, L.A. won nine of its last 12, finishing in a four-way tie at 9-7. They got off to an ugly start in the preseason, getting blown out by a combined 61-24 at the StubHub Center in exhibitions before opening the regular season with three straight defeats there. Anthony Lynn and his coordinators, veteran former head coaches Ken Whisenhunt and Gus Bradley, have prioritized getting off to a better start and appreciate not having to start from scratch, so we’ll see if positive results come quickly. A determination hasn’t been made on whether to let Philip Rivers suit up, but he played a series last year. The starting defense played a quarter but is expected to be missing Joey Bosa due to a foot injury. L.A. will get a great look at its depth, which includes determining the better backup for Rivers, Cardale Jones or the newly acquired Geno Smith.

The Cardinals have a new regime with Steve Wilks having replaced Bruce Arians as head coach. While QB Carson Palmer retired, the return of Larry Fitzgerald did preserve one link to the past, while David Johnson coming back from wrist surgery can be considered another plus. Patrick Peterson is also in the mix, so Wilks, a defensive mind who coached with the Panthers for the past six years after three-season stints coaching DBs for the Bears and Chargers, will have an elite presence to work with closely in molding the backbone for a talented defense. The Arizona offense took a hit since center AQ Shipley was lost to the season this week, so don’t expect to see starter Sam Bradford exposed for more than a series. That means Josh Rosen, the No. 10 pick out of UCLA, should play the bulk of this one. Former Chargers head coach Mike McCoy is in charge of the offense and also gets to try and enhance Mike Glennon’s trade value in the second half here, likely giving the home team an edge.

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Saturday’s 6-pack

— Nick Saban comes from modest means; his family owned a gas station in West Virginia.

— 43 of 82 Lakers games will either be on ABC, TNT, ESPN or NBATV; not the Warriors, the Lakers.

— Redskins’ rookie RB Derrius Guice tore his ACL. Not good.

— In this coming NBA season, Trailblazers will travel the most miles, Cavaliers the least.

— Melania Trump’s parents became naturalized US citizens Thursday; good for them.

— Since 2010, Alabama has had 25 first round NFL Draft picks; Florida/Ohio State are next, with 13 each.

Tweet of the Day
“When it came to helping other sports, Nick (Saban) was unbelievable.”
Bob Starkey, an assistant basketball coach at LSU while Saban was head coach there

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Cleveland Browns’ QB the last time they played in the playoffs?

Friday’s quiz
Butch Davis coached Cleveland Browns last time they made the playoffs, in 2002.

Thursday’s quiz
Nick Saban went 15-17 in two seasons coaching the Miami Dolphins.

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Saturday’s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here……

13) Westgate Super Contest is a $1,500 buy-in football handicapping contest; you pick five NFL games a week, and first prize is around $1M- they pay off 30 places, I think, maybe more. Thing is, if you don’t live in Las Vegas, you need a person who will put your picks in for you every week at the Westgate.

There are actually people who charge $240 or so to do this for you; talk about easy freakin’ money. 17 times, you take the person’s five picks, drive to the Westgate SuperBook, and put the picks in. Not a difficult job. Do it for, say 8 people, and thats an easy $1,920 you’re banking.

12) Miami Marlins traded 1B Justin Bour to the Phillies for McKenzie Mlls, who was 2-3, 3.51 in 20 games (16 starts) in the AA Eastern League.

Bour is making $3.4M this year, is arbitration-eligible this winter, so the Marlins cheaped out on this deal- will they ever be good? Bour has 19 homers; does this mean Carlos Santana will play some outfield for the Phillies?

11) On 4th-and-2 from the Giants’ 13-yard line Thursday, Cleveland went for it, midway thru second quarter. You would never do that in the regular season, but it made sense here, since you want to see players in game situations, and you know you can make a 30-yard FG.

10) From Doug Kern: This season, the Colorado Rockies have had two pitchers give up 10+ hits in a game but also strike out 10+ in same game; both of them lost. German Marquez did it Wednesday, and Jon Gray did it May 13.

Last team to have two different pitchers lose such a game in the same season: the 1939 St Louis Browns

9) Kansas State’s football coach, 78-year-old Bill Snyder, agreed to a 5-year contract extension thru the 2022 season. The contract increases Snyder’s pay to $3.45M for this year, which will then increase by $300,000 in both 2019 and 2020.

Snyder has been in a political struggle to determine his successor; his son has been the special teams coach at K-State for a long time. Snyder would obviously like his son to succeed him.

8) San Diego Padres saved more than $750,000 by allowing pitchers Tyson Ross and Jordan Lyles to leave on waiver claims Sunday; they also save $200,000 for every start Ross makes between 20 and 29 (he has 22 now).

7) After finishing 12th at the British Open in Scotland last month, the European Tour paid Tommy Fleetwood $154,500. One small problem; it was the wrong Tommy Fleetwood.

The guy who got the money put in his account mistakenly is a golf pro in Florida.

6) Tampa Bay Rays’ 2B Joey Wendle seems like a decent player; he was 7-17 in his last four games, is hitting .292, so of course on Thursday, he takes a seat? Why?

Does Tampa Bay have so many great players that Wendle has to sit? He is hitting .300 vs lefties, .291 vs righties, so it wasn’t that. Why do teams get run like Little League now, where everyone has to play? Play the best players!!!

5) There was recently a 3-day fantasy football convention in Fort Worth, TX. Wonder how much people paid to get into that, and whether they learned anything worthwhile.

4) How did Daniel Murphy never wind up as a DH? To me he is a lot like Wade Boggs was, a prolific hitter who would be great to pencil in the lineup every day, but you see Murphy reach for a ground ball now and he looks like a guy on his last legs athletically.

When he has a bat in his hands, he is still very dangerous.

3) More baseball stuff:
— Angels put Mike Trout (wrist) on the DL.
— Washington took Jeremy Hellickson out in 6th inning Friday, after he walked bases full with a 2-0 lead; he was also pitching a no-hitter at the time.

2) I wonder every month why ESPN the Magazine still gets delivered to my house; I don’t pay for it, it is (mostly) terrible; I just shake my head when it arrives each month.

This month is (kind of) an exception; there is a very good article about Nick Saban, and 14 stories about him that explain what makes him tick. Enjoyed the article.

1) Mookie Betts hit for the cycle Thursday but Boston lost; of the last 44 players to hit for the cycle, that player’s team went 40-4 in those games.

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SATURDAY, AUGUST 11
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at DEN 09:05 PM
DEN +1.0
O 36.0

LAC at ARI 10:00 PM
LAC +2.5
U 37.0

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Cousins perfect in Minnesota debut, Vikings beat Broncos
August 11, 2018

DENVER (AP) Kirk Cousins was perfect in his first game for Minnesota on Saturday night, completing all four of his passes, including a 1-yard touchdown strike to Stefon Diggs in the Vikings' 42-28 exhibition victory over the Denver Broncos.

Case Keenum wasn't nearly as sharp in his Denver debut.

He completed just 1 of 4 passes for 5 yards spanning two drives that went nowhere, lamenting after getting taken out that ''I definitely did'' want another possession. ''I'll be honest, I wanted one series with a few more plays and (to) score a touchdown.''

Cousins, the former Washington QB, was the crown jewel of this year's free- agent class of quarterbacks, signing a fully-guaranteed, three-year $84 million deal in Minneapolis.

Two months after leading the Vikings to the NFC championship, Keenum signed a two-year, $36 million deal in Denver, and the Broncos traded Trevor Siemian to the Vikings to serve as Cousins' backup - so long as he beats out another former Denver QB Kyle Sloter.

That left Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly vying for No. 2 duty in Denver.

After Cousins' single series - one in which he didn't have to face Von Miller - Siemian led Minnesota on three scoring drives, most notably a screen pass to Roc Thomas that beat the blitz for a 78-yard score.

Siemian was 11 of 17 for 165 yards, two TDs and an interception against his old team.

Lynch, the former first-rounder twice beaten out by Siemian in Denver, was just 6 of 11 for 24 yards and an interception.

Despite 17 yards passing overall in the first half, the Broncos only trailed 24-14 at halftime thanks to Isaiah McKenzie's 78-yard punt return for a TD and rookie Royce Freeman's 23-yard TD scamper - Denver's only first down before halftime.

Kelly threw a 36-yard touchdown pass to tight end Matt LaCosse to pull Denver to 27-21 and amid chants of ''Kelly! Kelly!'' he drove Denver 85 yards in 11 plays, capping the drive with a 19-yard strike to running back Phillip Lindsay to put the Broncos on top 28-27 with 10 minutes remaining.

Sloter, who was cut by Denver a year ago, responded by throwing a 9-yard touchdown pass to Chad Beebe with six minutes left to put the Vikings back on top. His strike to Jeff Badet for the 2-point conversion made it 35-28.

Safety Jack Tocho picked off Kelly at the Denver 30-yard line with 5:23 left, and Sloter sealed it with a 14-yard bootleg for the score on third-and-4.

Sloter was 9 of 11 for 69 yards and Kelly was 14 of 20 for 176.

MCKENZIE MAGIC

Coach Vance Joseph's faith in punt returner Isaiah McKenzie finally paid off when he sped down the Broncos sideline for a 78-yard TD late in the second quarter. Last year, Joseph stuck with McKenzie despite half a dozen fumbles.

NATIONAL ANTHEM

Linebacker Brandon Marshall and wide receiver Demaryius Thomas weren't with their teammates on the sideline for the national anthem prior to the Denver Broncos' game against the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday night.

Marshall and Thomas emerged from the tunnel behind the Broncos' bench after the anthem was over.

The league and the NFLPA have yet to announce a policy for this season regarding demonstrations during the anthem after the league initially ordered everyone to stand on the sideline when the anthem is played, or remain in the locker room.

INJURIES

Broncos S Jamal Carter left in the second quarter with a hamstring injury. TE Jake Butt made his NFL debut, starting in place of Jeff Heuerman (left knee), and Max Garcia started in place of LG Ron Leary (knee).

NEXT UP

Vikings: Host Jaguars on Aug. 18.

Broncos: Host Bears on Aug. 18.

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Kirk has big early play, Cardinals beat Chargers 24-17
August 11, 2018

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Arizona rookie Christian Kirk nearly broke a long punt return for a touchdown the first time he touched the ball as an NFL player.

As it was, the 38-yard return set up a touchdown drive for the Cardinals in the first-team offense's only series of the game, and Arizona beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-17 in the teams' preseason opener on Saturday night.

Rookie Josh Rosen completed 6 of 13 passes for 41 yards in his Arizona debut, playing the whole first half except the opening series.

Geno Smith, battling Cardale Jones for the right to back up the Chargers' Philip Rivers, completed 14 of 23 passes for 218 yards, including a 47-yard touchdown throw to Geremy Davis. He was intercepted once.

With Rivers sitting this one out, Jones started and played nearly the entire first half, completing 6 of 12 passes for 50 yards.

Kirk, Arizona's second-round draft pick out of Texas A&M, took the Chargers' early punt and broke free. He might have taken it all the way had he not slipped trying to make a move against Los Angeles punter Drew Kaser.

David Johnson reeled off a pair of 14-yard runs on the first two plays, his only carries of the night, and rookie Chase Edmonds scored on fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line. Edmonds was hit behind the line of scrimmage but used a second effort to barely stretch the ball over the goal line.

Sam Bradford, making his debut as Arizona's starting quarterback, directed the scoring drive in his Cardinals debut but mostly handed the ball off. He completed his only pass for six yards.

Arizona's second touchdown came in the third quarter when Jeremy Cash returned a fumble 12 yards for a score. Later in the quarter, Cash was carted off the field with a knee injury.

The Cardinals' fourth-string quarterback Charles Kanoff, an undrafted rookie out of Princeton, threw a 14-yard TD pass to Bryce Williams for the go-ahead score with 10:06 to play.

The game ended when Chargers QB Nic Shimonek was tackled at the Arizona 2-yard line.

ROSEN'S DEBUT

Rosen didn't get much help from his offensive line or his receivers, having to dodge the rush to get a pass off. He had two passes dropped.

Daniel Munyer, the backup center now that rookie Mason Cole is a starter, had trouble with shotgun formation snaps, repeatedly rolling the ball to the quarterback. Cole took over when A.Q. Shipley went down with a torn ACL in training camp.

OKUNG'S PROTEST

Los Angeles left tackle Russell Okung raised his right first during the national anthem.

Okung stood behind the rest of the players, who had lined up on the sideline. He was the only player on either side to protest visibly.

Okung is a member of the NFL players union's executive committee.

SLOPPY CHARGERS

Los Angeles turned the ball over four times, three times on fumbles and once on an interception.

The Chargers also were penalized 15 times for 155 yards.

DEFENSELESS HIT?

The Cardinals appeared to get a turnover when safety A.J. Howard jarred the ball loose from tight end Sean Culkin in the first half.

Arizona recovered, but Howard was called for a hit on a defenseless receiver, even though Culkin had turned and was bracing for the tackle.

UP NEXT

Chargers: are home against the Seattle Seahawks next Saturday night.

Cardinals: play at New Orleans on Friday night.

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WEEK 2

Thursday, August 16, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
7:30 PM Philadelphia Eagles New England Patriots
8:00 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Green Bay Packers
8:00 PM New York Jets Washington Redskins

Friday, August 17, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
7:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs Atlanta Falcons
7:00 PM New York Giants Detroit Lions
7:30 PM Miami Dolphins Carolina Panthers
7:30 PM Buffalo Bills Cleveland Browns
8:00 PM Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints

Saturday, August 18, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Minnesota Vikings
4:00 PM Oakland Raiders Los Angeles Rams
7:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Dallas Cowboys
8:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tennessee Titans
8:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Houston Texans
9:05 PM Chicago Bears Denver Broncos
10:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, August 20, 2018
Time (ET) Away Home
8:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Indianapolis Colts


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NFL PRESEASON RECORD:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

08/11/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
08/10/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
08/09/2018 10-14-0 41.66% -27.00
08/02/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50

TOTALS...........14- 20........41.76%.....-40.00

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Sunday’s 6-pack

— If you play fantasy football, buy the Warren Sharp football preview. Well worth it.

— Announced crowd at Mets-Marlins game Friday in Miami: 6,996.

— Kid named McKenzie on Denver had one of the best punt return TD’s I’ve ever seen last night; if he doesn’t make the Broncos, some other team will definitely sign him.

— Maryland put football coach DJ Durkin on administrative leave.

— Don Drysdale was the last Brooklyn Dodger who was active in the major leagues; he retired in 1969.

— Indians OF Leonys Martin has an undisclosed illness and is on the DL. He is in a hospital getting treatment; we wish him well.

Tweet of the Day
“They’ve got all these super nerds in the front office that know nothing about baseball but they like to project numbers and project players. … I think it’s killing the game. It’s to the point where just put computers out there. Just put laptops and what have you, just put them out there and let them play. We don’t even need to go out there anymore. It’s a joke.”
Former major leaguer Jayson Werth

Sunday’s quiz
Which major league team plays it home games in Petco Park?

Saturday’s quiz
Kelly Holcomb was the Cleveland Browns’ QB the last time they played in the playoffs.

Friday’s quiz
Butch Davis coached Cleveland Browns last time they made the playoffs, in 2002.


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Sunday’s Den: Notes, trends on AFC teams

Baltimore— Missed playoffs last three years, four of five years since Ray Lewis retired. Ravens are 6-2-1 vs spread on natural grass last two years. Since ’08, Ravens are 9-6-1 as road favorites in divisional games, 6-12 in non-divisional tilts.

Buffalo— Bills made playoffs LY for first time in 18 years, but now QB Tyrod Taylor plays for the Browns, and Buffalo’s three QB’s have a combined five NFL starts. When does rookie QB Josh Allen get the nod? Last three years, Bills are 6-2-1 as non-divisional home favorites.

Cincinnati— Marvin Lewis is 125-112-3 with Bengals, but 0-7 in playoff games. Over last decade, Bengals are 24-13-3 vs spread when playing an NFC opponent- surprisingly, they won seven of their last nine games with Baltimore. Under is 21-11 in their road games last four years.

For the record, Lewis may be 0-7 in playoff games, but the Bengals’ three head coaches before him were a combined 52-124 over 11 seasons.

Cleveland— Browns are 1-31 the last two years; since coming back to NFL in 1999, they’re 1-18 in season openers. Cleveland was a ridiculously-bad -28 in turnovers LY; having Taylor at QB will improve that a great deal. Last eight years, Browns are 21-39-3 vs spread at home.

Denver— Keenum will be Broncos’ 7th different #1 QB the last 12 years; they’re 5-2 as home underdogs last three years, vs 5-11 vs spread on the road. Denver was 1-7 on road LY, with only win at Indianapolis in December; previous six years, they were 31-17 on foreign soil

Houston— Texans scored 34-33-38 points in last three games rookie QB Watson played, but after his injury, Houston scored 16 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9 games. Last nine years, Texans are 6-11 as home underdogs; under O’Brien, they’re 9-3-1 when favored by 3 or fewer points.

Indianapolis— Andrew Luck returns at QB after missing LY; they change coaches after missing playoffs last 3 years (8-8/8-8/4-12). Last two years, Colts are 2-7-1 vs spread in games coming off a win, 13-8 in games coming off a loss. Frank Reich has never been a head coach before; he was the Eagles’ OC the last two years.

Jacksonville— Jaguars were +10 in turnovers LY as they made playoffs for first time in 10 years; can they force 33 takeaways again? Over is 15-8 in Jaguar home games the last three years. Last five years, Jax is 3-17 vs spread when playing an NFC team; they open with Giants this year.

Kansas City— Last three years, Chiefs were +14/+16/+15 in turnovers, but Alex Smith is gone, Patrick Mahomes (1 career start) is the starter now and KC’s turnover ratio figures to regress some this year. Chiefs were -3 in turnovers in 2014, the only time in Andy Reid’s five years in KC the Chiefs failed to make the playoffs.

LA Chargers— Bolts started out 0-4 LY, with three losses by 2 or 3 points; their kickers were terrible in September, and it cost them a playoff spot. Chargers made playoffs once in last eight years; they’re 9-13 as home favorites the last four years.

Chargers play in Cleveland in Week 6, then play in London against the Titans in Week 7, before their bye week. In Week 9, they play in Seattle and the next week they visit Oakland- tough five-week stretch.

Miami— Dolphins haven’t been in playoffs since 2008; their last playoff win was in 2000. Jay Cutler was Miami’s QB LY; now he’s on a reality show with his actress wife and Ryan Tannehill is back at QB. Miami is 5-2-1 as home dogs under coach Gase; they’re 5-15 vs spread in their last 20 games on artificial turf.

New England— Last time Patriots went out in their first playoff game was 2010; they’re 14-6-3 as home favorites the last three years, but NE is replacing DC Matt Patricia this year- he is the Lions’ new coach. Over last decade, Patriots are 24-10 vs spread when they’re coming off a loss. Last five years, NE is 3-9 vs spread as a road favorite in divisional games.

NJ Jets— Jets haven’t made playoffs since 2010; they were outscored 94-32 in losing their last four games LY. Will Sam Darnold start? Will they keep three QB’s? Two of their first three games this year are in primetime. Last four years, Jets are -29 in turnovers; they’re 15-8-1 vs spread at home the last three years.

Oakland— Jon Gruden already got rid of his punter and his kicker; special teams coach Bisaccia will have his hands full. Oakland hasn’t won a playoff game (0-1) since Gruden beat them in Super Bowl with Bucs 16 years ago. Last five years, Raiders are 13-6-1 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog.

Pittsburgh— Steelers have had only three head coaches since 1969; they made playoffs last four years, but haven’t won Super Bowl since 2008. Last three years, under is 18-4-1 in Pitt’s away games. Since 2010, Steelers are 27-15-1 vs spread when coming off a loss.

Tennessee— Titans made playoffs for first time in nine years, then fired the coach; they’re 7-3-2 vs spread as home favorites the last two years, but 5-10-1 vs spread on road. Over last decade, Tennessee is 8-21-1 vs spread in AFC South road games.

Developing young QB Marcus Mariota will be QB coach Pat O’Hara, whose resume is fascinating— he played at USC, played and coached in the Arena League, was the #3 QB for the Miami Sharks in the movie Any Given Sunday, backing up Dennis Quaid and Jamie Foxx.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the World Series:

7-2: Boston Red Sox

5-1: Houston Astros

6-1: Chicago Cubs

7-1: Los Angeles Dodgers

8-1: Bronx Bombers

10-1: Cleveland Indians

12-1: Oakland A’s

Quote of the Day
“While this transaction on the surface seems purely administrative, it caught us by surprise and is tremendously disappointing. Major-league starters have a strict routine that they adhere to that allows them to be successful; this roster move affects that. While the club may feel that they are doing what’s best for the organization, they also lose sight of the human element and how it will affect the player.”

Agent Tom O’Connell; his client (Phillies’ P) Zach Eflin is “being demoted” to AAA, even though he really isn’t, its a procedural thing. He won’t miss a turn in the majors, but he loses $20,000 in salary and nine days of major league service time because of it.

Tuesday’s quiz
How many current NFL head coaches used to play QB in the Arena League?

Monday’s quiz
Oregon Ducks play their home games in Autzen Stadium.

Sunday’s quiz
San Diego Padres play their home games in Petco Park.

***********************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) The offensive/defensive coordinators in Cleveland either aren’t getting along very well, or they staged this exchange for HBO’s Hard Knocks:

Todd Haley, upset with the defense getting too close to QB Baker Mayfield: “Good teams don’t touch the fucking quarterback!”

Gregg Williams: “Block ‘em then!”

12) More on the Browns, this from USA Today:

“Cleveland Browns coach Hue Jackson said rookie receiver Antonio Callaway played so many snaps Thursday as a punishment for his recent marijuana citation.

Rather than discipline a player by benching him, as coaches often do, Jackson told reporters Sunday that he decided to go in the opposite direction, playing Callaway even when he asked for a breather.

‘I was trying to make him play the whole game if we could. I did not want him to come out.'”

11) This tweet from former NFL RB Danny Woodhead:

“If I’m an undrafted rookie for the browns I’m gonna make sure i get in trouble before the next game! Playing all game just gives you an opportunity to make the team! This isn’t a punishment this is a gift!”

Alrighty then.

10) From Baseball Reference: David Bote’s walk-off grand slam for the Cubs Sunday night was the first “down 3-0” walk-off grand slam since Samuel Byrd (Reds) off Cy Blanton (Pirates) on May 23, 1936.

9) Cardinals are 16-9 under interim manager Mike Shildt; they’re back in the Wild Card race and there’s an increasing chance that Shildt will become the full-time manager for 2019.

8) Brooks Koepka is the first golfer to win the U.S. Open and PGA Championship in the same year since 2000; his ranking is up to #2 in the world.

7) Chris Sale has an 0.69 ERA in his last 10 starts, striking out 109 in 65 innings; since June 8, hitters are batting .147 against him.

6) Not only are the Oakland A’s 36-12 in their last 48 games, their AAA team in Nashville has won its last 13 games, and is now 64-55 in the PCL. Sounds turned a triple play in their win on Sunday.

5) Chicago Bears finally signed LB Roquan Smith, their first round draft pick. Four years, $18M. Now the kid can get to work.

4) You can actually wager on who the starting QB’s will be at colleges whose teams have a QB controversy this summer, teams like Alabama, Florida State.

Wonder if anyone has a prop bet over where Jalen Hurts will transfer to if he isn’t the starter at Alabama after the Crimson Tide went 26-2 in his starts the last two years?

3) Why won’t the Mets bring 1B Peter Alonso? When your team sucks, its a good thing to give your fans some hope for the future by letting them watch young players play and hopefully develop into stars. Alonso hit .314 in AA, is hitting .260 in AAA, has 105 RBI between AA and AAA this year. I’m guessing Met fans have seen enough of Jose Bautista and Jose Reyes.

2) Giants’ rookie RB Saquon Barkley strained his hamstring in Monday’s practice. Not sure what exactly a “mild strain” means, but I know it ain’t good.

1) Jeez….Indians’ OF Leonys Martin has been battling a life-threatening bacterial infection that attacked his internal organs. He is currently in stable condition, and is improving.

We pray that he feels better real soon.

[StarDust Bum]

Handicapping Giants (7)
August 13, 2018
By BetDSI

The New York Giants head into the 2018 season with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr., an exciting rookie running back in Saquon Barkley and a rejuvenated Eli Manning. Whether the Giants can play enough defense to be a serious contender is the question.

The Giants don’t get any breaks with the early part of their schedule and oddsmakers are not sold the Giants will have a winning season, as the win total for New York was set a seven. Let’s look at the Giants schedule to see if they will go over or under that number.

2018 New York Giants Regular Season Win Total
Over 7 (+100)
Under 7 (-130)

2018 New York Giants Schedule Analysis

Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The opener will not be easy for the Giants, as they face one of the top defenses in the league in the Jaguars and a very motivated Tom Coughlin who is the executive vice president of football operations for Jacksonville. Coughlin was fired by the Giants after the 2015 season. The Giants are 3-point home underdogs at BetDSI.

Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, at Dallas Cowboys

The Giants started the last three seasons in Dallas, but this year they get the Cowboys in Week 2. This is a road game that the Giants can win.

Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, at Houston Texans

It doesn’t get any easier for the Giants in Week 3, as they travel to Houston to take on a healthy Deshaun Watson and the Texans. The Giants will probably be doing well to be 1-2 after their first three games.

Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, vs. New Orleans Saints

The Giants have to face a very talented New Orleans team that has the offense to give New York’s defense all kinds of trouble.

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, at Carolina Panthers

It is Week 5 and the Giants still don’t have a game that looks like a sure win. There is a good chance New York will be listed as an underdog in each of their first five games.

Week 6: Thursday, Oct. 11, vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m. ET

Can you say underdogs in six straight games? The Giants now have to face the defending Super Bowl champs on a short week. The Eagles have the better offense and the better defense and they should get this win.

Week 7: Monday, Oct. 22, at Atlanta Falcons, 8:15 p.m. ET

The early season gauntlet continues for the Giants as they have to go into Atlanta on a Monday night. The Falcons are another team that as the offense that can expose the New York defense.

Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 28, vs. Washington Redskins

There is a good chance that the first time the Giants are favored this season will be in Week 8, as they host the Redskins. Depending upon what has happened in the first seven games they might be listed as home dogs, but it seems unlikely. The Redskins have a new quarterback in Alex Smith and they are capable of winning in New York.

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: Monday, Nov. 12, at San Francisco 49ers

The Giants come out of their bye and have to play another very good offensive team in San Francisco. This looks like another road loss.

Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 18, vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants schedule finally starts to ease up, as they get to play the Bucs at home. This should be a home win for Big Blue.

Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, at Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have a tough test on the road against the Champs, but Eli Manning has played well in the past against the Eagles and the Giants might surprise in this one.

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, vs. Chicago Bears

The Bears are going to be better this season, but the Giants are at home and should get the win.

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, at Washington Redskins

The Giants and Redskins split their two meetings last season. New York is capable of getting this road win.

Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans and Giants look to be very similar teams entering this season, so this game looks like a coin flip.

Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts should be much better this season with a healthy Andrew Luck. This game could be a shootout.

Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, vs. Dallas Cowboys

The regular season finale probably won’t mean anything for either team, as they both might miss the playoffs.

2018 New York Giants Win Total Prediction

The Giants are going to be much better on offense, but the defense is still bad. The schedule doesn’t do New York any favors, but the win total for New York is just seven. We’ll go over the total with the Giants this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Who's Hot and Who's Not
August 13, 2018
By YouWager.eu

Week of August 13th

In last week's piece the focus was football and while the Calgary Stampeders enjoyed a well-deserved week off, focusing on those NFC South teams cashing 'over' tickets in Week 1 of the preseason proved profitable with a 2-1 record. Carolina and New Orleans were the ones who got there with 'over' tickets, and while Tampa Bay didn't have the history of 'overs' for the division they picked up the slack for Atlanta who didn't score a single point against the Jets.

This week the focus is football heavy again as Week 2 of the preseason brings a bit more stability to player rotations for NFL teams (in terms of starters playing time) and because of that (and fantasy football drafts going in full swing now) that NFL betting action really starts to dominate the thought process of the betting market. So let's get right to it:

Who's Hot

Preseason NFL 'Overs' – 11-5 O/U in Week 1

Week 1 of the preseason typically brings a boatload of sloppy football and minor league talent on the field that usually leads to low-scoring, unwatchable games, but that was not the case this year. With so many teams in some sort of rebuilding stage with young QB's at the helm, talented guys saw plenty of action this past week and it showed up on the scoreboard. I'm sure some of the new collective bargaining negotiations regarding padded practices etc helped as well with plenty of sloppy tackling out there too, but for Week 1 of the preseason to cash six units blindly betting the 'over' it was a rather surprising result.

The bulk of those 'overs' came on the full Thursday slate of games with those contests finishing with a 9-3 O/U mark. Of those nine 'overs', seven of them eclipsed their closing number by at least nine points, as we even had three contests on Thursday score 50+ points combined. Considering that Week 1 preseason totals are always put out there in the mid-30's, to see high-scoring, offensive-minded games right from the get-go was refreshing.

However, this is one of those streaks/trends that is probably going to end in a heartbeat for a variety of reasons. Oddsmakers will adjust their numbers a half-point or point higher for Week 2 given those results, and recreational bettors who saw all those points scored will now flock to the 'overs' in select games, pushing numbers up even higher and creating a tremendous amount of value on the 'under' in those cases. That's what I'll be on the lookout for this week, as I expect to see many more games this week finish in the 30's and stay under their high 30's/low 40's totals.

Who's Not

NFC East teams SU and ATS in the Preseason – 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS

Again, it's only been one week of the preseason so don't put too much weight into this trend, but all four NFC East teams (Dallas, Washington, Philadelphia, NY Giants) lost SU in their preseason games last week and only the Cowboys were able to get an ATS cover, albeit by the hook. Dallas was also the only one of the four to score 20 or more points last week so either a few of these teams are going very vanilla in these preseason games or they simply aren't that deep offensively in roster construction. Either way, it's something to keep in mind for the next two weeks at least.

For Week 2, we've got an even split in terms of these four teams being on the road/at home and being 'dogs/favorites. Philadelphia and the New York Giants are each catching a FG worth of points as road 'dogs this week, although the “Super Bowl rematch” Philadelphia has with New England on Thursday night is going to get all the publicity.

Highly publicized games don't always mean they are good betting opportunities, and with Belichick and company being the ones with the “revenge angle” in their favor here, I'm not sure how you can like Philly plus the points without fully knowing how serious or what kind of effort the Pats bring. Typically New England rarely cares about preseason wins and losses – Bill Belichick is just 50-43 SU in his career in the preseason, but he and Brady can be a spiteful bunch with their long memories, and getting one back on Philadelphia – even if it is just the preseason – could be in the cards.

That also means that we've got Dallas and Washington at home this week from the NFC East and both are laying the typical three points for home field advantage (albeit with juice attached) in their games against the Bengals and Jets respectively.

If there were a couple of spots I'd consider going against the Week 1 results for these NFC East teams, it would be with the Cowboys and Redskins at home (especially Washington) as they should be the more talented and better teams this year (compared to their respective opponents this week) when the games count for real.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 2 Preseason Top Wagers
August 13, 2018
By YouWager.eu

7 Juicy Odds & Lines for NFL Preseason Week 2

The opening week of the 2018 NFL preseason is in the books, and while we would like to say that there were some surprise results, the reality is that you never really know what to expect in preseason. WE are now going to jump ahead to Week 2, hoping that what we saw last week will help us make some better picks. Let’s review the odds provided by YouWager.eu and get right to the action.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers (OVER 37 ½)

These two teams scored over 30 points each in the opening week of the preseason, and I would not be surprised to see a bit of a shootout here. The Steelers have a QB battle going on for the back-up spot, which usually means that the players in question go out to show what they have to offer, which all 3 of them did in the opening week.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons (UNDER 38)

The Chiefs are trying to break in a new QB, which means there are going to be some growing pains along the way. The Falcons have one of the best offenses in the league, but they misfired in Week 1, going scoreless in a loss to the Jets. The Falcons offense will improve, but may have a tough time against a Chiefs defensive unit that looked solid in Week 1. Going with the UNDER here.

New York Jets (+2) vs Washington Redskins

Getting out of the postseason without injury is more important than the results, which means it has already been a disaster for the Redskins, as they lost rookie RB Derrius Guice for the season in Week 1. That’s going to be tough to bounce back from. The Jets. And Sam Darnold in particular, looked good in their opener. Look for the rookie to play well again in a win for the Jets.

Carolina Panthers (-3) vs Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins lost to another NFC South team in Week 1 of the preseason, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading home with a 26-24 win. The Panthers are a better team than the Bucs and also had a win in their opening game. I like Carolina to win again, only this time by a bigger margin than the 5-point victory they had over the Buffalo Bills.

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions (UNDER 37)

While the Giants can take heart in the performance by rookie RB Saquon Barkley in Week 1, they did little else of note in a big loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Lions offense sputtered from start to finish in their opener, making it tough to imagine that they will suddenly break out here. Let’s take the UNDER in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Minnesota Vikings (OVER 38)

It’s never a good idea to get too excited about a team based on a single preseason game, but the Vikings looked great in a 42-28 win over the Denver Broncos. Kirk Cousins may get even more time on the field in Week 2, and I like the Vikings to put up some points against the Jags in a game that should slip OVER the point total.

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints (-3 ½)

The Cardinals came up with a bit of a surprise win over the Chargers in Week 1 of the preseason, but I think they will have a much tougher time against the Saints in New Orleans. I like the Saints to win this one quite comfortably, and I believe that the spread as it stands right now is great value.

[StarDust Bum]

Handicapping Dolphins (7)
August 14, 2018
By BetDSI

The Miami Dolphins are hoping that a healthy Ryan Tannehill will turn their fortunes around in 2018. The Dolphins lost Tannehill for the season a year ago in training camp to an ACL injury, but he is back ready to go for this season. The Dolphins won just six games last season, so improvement is expected. Oddsmakers set the win total for Miami at seven games for this season.

Let’s look at the schedule for the Dolphins to see if they will go over or under that number.

2018 Miami Dolphins Regular Season Win Total
Over 7 (-130)
Under 7 (+100)

2018 Miami Dolphins Schedule Analysis

Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, vs. Tennessee Titans

The Dolphins have done well in season openers recently, winning four of their last five. This game looks like a toss-up, but the odds at BetDSI have the Dolphins listed as two-point underdogs.

Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 16, at New York Jets

The Dolphins should have a good chance to win this contest on the road, but it is worth noting that Miami traveled to New York in Week 2 last season and lost.

Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, vs. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders almost never do well traveling to the Eastern Time Zone, so this is a winnable game for the Dolphins.

Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, at New England Patriots

The Dolphins rarely win at New England, as their last win at Gillette Stadium came in 2008. This one looks like a road loss.

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, at Cincinnati Bengals

The Dolphins and Bengals met two years ago and it was Mike Nugent kicking five field goals in a Cincinnati win. It might be another low scoring contest this time around.

Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, vs. Chicago Bears

This game will have some extra motivation for Miami head coach Adam Gase who was the Chicago offensive coordinator in 2015. This should be a home win for the Dolphins.

Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 21, vs. Detroit Lions

The Dolphins have a chance to win two straight against the NFC North. The Lions have a new head coach in Matt Patricia who is very familiar with Miami, as he was the defensive coordinator for New England.

Week 8: Thursday, Oct. 25, at Houston Texans

This will be a Thursday night game on the road against a talented opponent. It is hard to see Miami winning this one on short rest.

Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, vs. New York Jets

The Dolphins get extra time to prepare for this one and they should get the home win.

Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, at Green Bay Packers

The Dolphins will be road underdogs in this one, but they did win at Lambeau in their last visit in 2010.

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 25, at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are going to be much better this season with a healthy Andrew Luck, so this game could be another road defeat.

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, vs. Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins will play the Bills twice in the last month of the season. This is simply a must-win game if Miami is to make a playoff push.

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, vs. New England Patriots

The Dolphins have actually done well at home against the Patriots of late, winning four of the last five.

Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, at Minnesota Vikings

The Dolphins have to travel to Minnesota after playing a huge game against the Patriots. The Dolphins should get routed in this one.

Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

This could be a huge game for both teams in the AFC playoff race. The Jaguars are the better team, but this game is in Miami and it could be close.

Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 30, at Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins rarely win in Buffalo, so they had better hope they don’t need to win this one to make the playoffs.

2018 Miami Dolphins Win Total Prediction

The schedule for Miami is pretty favorable for the 2018 season. Looking over every game it seems that the Dolphins should get to at least seven wins, and if they can pull off an upset or two they could finish with a winning record. We’ll go over the total with the Dolphins this season.