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**Udog** · 01-02-2018, 06:01 PM

NFL Wild Card opening line report: Sharp action moves lines early
Patrick Everson

"We know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be."

A wild ending to Week 17 of the NFL season led to a late change in the roster of 12 playoff teams, eight of which will be on the field next weekend for the wild card playoff round. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5)

Buffalo got a late Christmas gift from the Cincinnati Bengals, who scored a last-minute touchdown to knock Baltimore out of the playoffs and put the Bills (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) into the postseason. Buffalo did its part Sunday by beating Miami 22-16 as a 2.5-point road favorite, then waited out the Bengals-Ravens game, with Baltimore’s loss sending the Bills to the playoffs for the first time since 1999.

Jacksonville already had the AFC’s No. 3 seed locked up prior to Sunday, and though the squad had plenty of betting support in Vegas, it didn’t translate to the field. The Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) lost a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog.

Cooley said early sharp money came in on No. 6 seed Buffalo, dropping the line to Jags -7.

“This feels like a high number, and some on the team wanted to see a much lower spread,” Cooley said. “We’ll see what Blake Bortles and that Jags offense is really made of here. Smart money feels like an under play on the total, and the betting public won’t be terribly interested in this one overall. The Bills are a value play that will garner pro money.”

To Cooley’s point on the under, Bookmaker.eu opened the total at 41, and it was quickly bet down to 40 for this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

Tennessee needed a Week 17 win to reach the playoffs, and ugly as it may have been, Mike Mularkey’s troops got the job done. The Titans (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) snapped a nearly season-killing three-game SU skid by beating Jacksonville 15-10 as a 2.5-point chalk to nab the No. 5 seed.

AFC West champ Kansas City couldn’t move up from the No. 4 seed, but that didn’t prevent Andy Reid’s squad from beating a hapless Denver unit. The Chiefs (10-6 SU and ATS) notched a 27-24 victory as a 3-point road ‘dog, despite resting quarterback Alex Smith and several other starters.

Cooley was nonplused by Tennessee, but the Titans did see early sharp action, taking the line from K.C. -7.5 to -7 for this 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday meeting.

“Our ratings have the Titans as the worst team in the playoffs,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs have certainly been uninspiring during the second half of the season, but we’re going to have trouble attracting Tennessee money here. Like the other AFC matchup, it’s definitely not the sexiest, and we’ll have ample teaser and parlay liability with both of the favorites.”

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6)

Defending NFC champion Atlanta had to win in Week 17 to ensure the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The Falcons (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) put the clamps on Carolina in a 22-10 victory laying 5 points at home.

Third-seeded Los Angeles (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) already had the NFC West locked up heading into Week 17 and rested quarterback Jared Goff and running back Todd Gurley, among others. So it wasn’t a huge surprise that the Rams lost to Jimmy Garoppolo and late-surging San Francisco, 34-13 as a 6-point home pup.

“We know that we’ll see solid Atlanta money from the public, given the star power on the team, but this isn’t your older brother’s Rams bunch,” Cooley said. “We do expect this to be bet down, but at the end of the day, L.A. is multiple pegs higher in the power ratings. We should get solid two-way action from the sharps and squares at this number.”

Indeed, the number was bet down quickly for this 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday contest, with early sharp action on the visiting Falcons taking the line from L.A. -6 to -4.5.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)

New Orleans ended up as the NFC South champion, but didn’t exactly end on the strongest note while falling from the No. 3 seed to No. 4 in Week 17. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) went to Tampa Bay as a 6-point fave and lost on a last-minute TD pass 31-24.

Carolina could have taken advantage of that and claimed the division title and a home wild card game, but couldn’t get enough offense in its finale. The Panthers (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) fell to Atlanta 22-10 catching 5 points on the road.

“Given how this series played out during the regular season, the average bettor might expect a number closer to a touchdown,” Cooley said, alluding to New Orleans’s 34-13 road win over Carolina on Sept. 24 and the Saints’ 31-21 home repeat performance a month ago. “But we know that the Panthers are one of the most enigmatic teams in the league, and we know that the Saints may not be the team they are perceived to be.”

Still, the Saints got a little early shove from bettors, taking them from -5.5 to -6 for Sunday’s 4:30 p.m. ET clash.

**Udog** · 01-02-2018, 06:07 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Wildcard Round

Saturday, December 6

Tennessee @ Kansas City

Game 101-102
January 6, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
131.239
Kansas City
143.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 12 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ LA Rams

Game 103-104
January 6, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
132.002
LA Rams
141.621
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 9 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-4); Over

Sunday, December 7

Buffalo @ Jacksonville

Game 105-106
January 7, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
135.109
Jacksonville
138.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 7 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+7 1/2); Over

Carolina @ New Orleans

Game 107-108
January 7, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.404
New Orleans
140.511
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 6 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+6 1/2); Under

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Saturday, December 6

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TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 6) - 1/6/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (10 - 6) at LA RAMS (11 - 5) - 1/6/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 184-231 ATS (-70.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-231 ATS (-70.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 84-120 ATS (-48.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 132-182 ATS (-68.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-183 ATS (-58.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-96 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 7

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BUFFALO (9 - 7) at JACKSONVILLE (10 - 6) - 1/7/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (11 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) - 1/7/2018, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 113-84 ATS (+20.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-3 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 6

TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

ATLANTA @ LA RAMS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Sunday, December 7

BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Buffalo is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing at home against Carolina

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**Udog** · 01-03-2018, 08:44 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card weekend
Ashton Grewal

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 44.5)

Titans’ red zone defense vs. Chiefs’ red zone offense

KC head coach Andy Reid is known to fumble the timeout/challenge dynamic, but one of the Chiefs’ most glaring shortcomings is in the red zone. Kansas City ranks 29th in touchdown conversion once it gets inside the 20-yard line with just 42 percent of its chances ending in end zone celebrations.

Tennessee’s defense ranks inside the top 10 for lowest red zone TDs surrendered this season and the unit allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns (five) on the year.

Kansas City owns a league best 4.7 yards per carry average, but that’s based more of the first five weeks of the season when Kareem Hunt was taking the NFL by storm. The rookie running back averaged 6.3 yards in his first five games and 3.9 from Week 6 to Week 16.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)

Rams’ second half defense vs. Falcons’ second half offense

Just like Tiger Woods from a decade ago, the Los Angeles Rams are used to playing in front on Sundays. The Rams lead the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game – more than double their average from last season – and most of that damage came in the first and third quarters.

Los Angeles’ defense is able to get after opposing quarterbacks once the score differential dictates a heavy percentage of pass plays. Aaron Donald and Co. held their foes to 8.8 second-half points per game which ranks as the fourth best second half scoring defense in the league.

The Falcons made a habit of scoring early but then struggling to put up points as the games progressed. About 56 percent of Atlanta’s season points were scored in the first 30 minutes of games and the squad averaged just 3.2 points per third quarter.

Anyone who watched the Falcons play this year knows their offensive execution hasn’t been at the same level since Steve Sarkisian took over as the OC – especially late in games.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 39.5)

Jaguars’ passing defense vs. Bills’ passing offense

There was a reason the Bills coaching staff and management wanted to see what their offense would look like with Nathan Peterman running the show - and not just to bring back the J. Peterman references. His disastrous start – which included five first half interceptions – overshadows Tyrod Taylor’s ugly passing numbers. Taylor passed for 2799 yards and averaged just 6.66 yards per pass attempt.

Only the Chicago Bears averaged fewer passing yards per game than the Bills at 176.6 and Buffalo finished second last in pass completions per game. The Bills’ top target is a lumbering tight end (Charles Clay) which probably explains why they finished last in the league in yards after catch (1230).

Jacksonville flexes its defensive muscle most when opponents turn to the air. The Jags allowed league-low 169.9 passing yards per game, finished with the second most sacks and were No. 2 in team interceptions with 21.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 48.5)

Saints’ passing offense vs. Panthers’ passing defense

Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara caught all the headlines in the Big Easy this season after the Saints finished with a top five rushing attack for the first time under head coach Sean Payton. That’s not to say New Orleans can’t chuck the ball around the field with veteran quarterback Drew Brees.

The Saints finished fifth in passing yards gained per game at 261.8 and led the league in passer completion percentage with Brees connecting on 72 percent of his pass attempts.

Carolina’s defense excels against the run but struggles with the ball in the air. The Panthers allowed a league-worst 300.3 passing yards per contest in the last three weeks of the season.

**Udog** · 01-04-2018, 10:58 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wildcard Round

Titans (9-7) @ Chiefs (10-6)— Chiefs won/covered first five games and also last four, but they went 1-6 in between. KC is 6-2 at home this season, 5-2 as home favorites. Six of their last eight games stayed under total. Tennessee is in playoffs for first time since 2008; their last playoff win was in 2003. Chiefs are in playoffs for third year in row- they’re 1-10 in last 11 playoff games, with the one win two years ago. Titans made playoffs despite losing three of last four games; they’re 3-5 on road, 0-3 as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Last five years, favorites are 12-8 vs spread in this round. Favorites covered the #4-5 seed game in AFC four of last five years. Andy Reid is 11-12 coaching in playoffs, 1-5 since 2009.

Falcons (10-6) @ Rams (11-5)— Atlanta came to LA last year and crushed Rams 42-14, Fisher’s last game as Rams’ coach. Falcons are defending NFC champs; Rams are in playoffs for first time since ’04, when they lost 47-17 in Atlanta. Falcons won six of last eight games, are 5-3 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs. Under is 11-2 in Atlanta’s last 13 games. Rams led NFL in scoring; they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year. Last five LA games went over total. Falcons had to win late game last Sunday to make it here; most LA starters took last week off, so Rams should be more rested, with game on short week. #3-seed in NFC beat #6-seed in this game four of last six years. Falcons won last four series games, scoring 31+ points in all four.

Bills (9-7) @ Jaguars (10-6)— Jaguars coach Marrone was 15-17 as Bills’ coach in 2014-15, but then he abruptly quit; there were hard feelings. Bills won three of last four games; they’re 3-5 on road this season, 3-3 as road underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under total. Jaguars won last five home games (4-1 vs spread); they lost last two weeks, after hey clinched playoff berth. Three of their last four games went over. Buffalo is in playoffs for first time since 1999; their last playoff win was in ’95. Jacksonville is in playoffs for first time since 2007. Bills won three of last four games with Jaguars- the only loss was in London. Teams split last four meetings played here. #6-seed in AFC beat the #3-seed in this game three of last four years.

Panthers (11-5) @ Saints (11-5)— New Orleans won both meetings this year, 34-13 (+5.5) in Week 3, then 31-21 (-6) at home in Week 13. Saints scored 8 TD’s on 21 drives in those games, with 12 plays of 20+ yards- they ran for 148-149 yards, only two games all year that Carolina allowed more than 120 rushing yards. Carolina won seven of last nine games; they’re 5-3 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games went over total. Saints won their last seven home games; NO is 4-3 as home favorites. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Panthers are in playoffs for 4th time in last five years; Saints are in for first time since ’13. Last six times they made playoffs, NO is 5-1 in its first playoff game that year. #5-seed beat #4-seed in this game three of last five years; favorites covered last six.

Titans @ Chiefs (-7, 44.5)
Falcons @ Rams (-5.5, 49.5)
Bills @ Jaguars (-7, 40)
Falcons @ Saints (-6. 48.5)

**Udog** · 01-04-2018, 10:59 AM

published Jan. 2

NFL Wild Card lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 44)

This line opened up at a low of Kansas City -7.5 and quickly jumped up everywhere to -8 and in some instances, -8.5. My sendout was -8.5 but I could have easily used -9 and would have been happy with that.

Playoff time can be a scary time for the bookmaker. It sometimes comes down to a winner-take-all situation with so few games and less areas to spread the money around. But as we all know; the betting public has their eyes on favorites and the over. Making this truly a game bookmakers should have over compensated on the spread and forced the wise guys to commit their money early on the dog where they could count on the layman’s bets to counter act it on game day.

The more anyone studies this game, is more reason to play the Chiefs. Quarterback comparisons can pretty much be called for Kansas City early by merely looking at the basic stats of each starter. Titans’ signal caller Marcus Mariota, who has 3,232 passing yards with 13 touchdowns and 15 interceptions can’t compete with a seasoned pro like the Chiefs’ Alex Smith, who logged 4,042 yards with a 26-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Chiefs are hot, winners of four in a row and seemed to have captured their mojo back. The Titans have lost three of their past four games and haven’t scored more than 24 points in their last 10 games. In the past three years, KC has outscored Tennessee 64-16 in two meetings at Arrowhead Stadium.

All of that said, this looks like a typical line history with the betting public placing their money on the favorite, jacking up this line towards -9 (and maybe higher) and then the wise guys taking the highest possible number on game day to drive this back down to the -8 area. Bookmakers would be wise to hold the line high early in the week and force the squares to take the worst line and entice the wise guys late with their balancing bets on Sunday. I mean how wise can you be taking the favorite at -9?

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)

Another foolish number by those who make the opening lines. Second game of two where all of the chaser’s money will stream into the favorite. A huge LA market ready to bet their newly minted team having so much success. A -4? Wow, someone is getting a little lazy with these numbers.

I could have said seven from the get-go, but didn’t. I had -6 myself and they already blew by that before the opening day was done. A ton of money will be influenced by the success or failure of the favorite in the first game, so you have to set this line high and force the masses to take a bad number because they hate to take the dog in any case.

But this is an easy read. If the Chiefs handle business, money will continue to follow the favorites and jack this number up or at least keep it high until kickoff. If the dog comes through in game one of the day, money will find the favorite as a “due factor”. There’s no way you can be too high on this number to start the betting off. At -4, bookmakers gave away five limit bets before the week started.

I fully thought this line would be around a touchdown from the start and truly feel it is the correct betting line for bookmakers. But my gut says the Atlanta Falcons are the play due to their team experience, quarterback experience and overall current standing. Although the wise guys got a great early number, I think they’ll wait for the public push on the favorite and take the dog again on the backside game day. The game landing -4 or -6 gets them the side or even a middle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-8, 39)

I’m taking a pass on this line, as a lot will be determined by LeSean McCoy’s status. However, this number seems a little high in regards that the total is so low.

If McCoy is deemed not worthy to play, one advantage for deal seekers is that this line may go up even farther. But the Bills may surprise, by opening up their offensive options instead of pounding the ball with one man. Therefore, creating a unique game-plan that Jacksonville may not have been counting on.

In a one-game situation, I think the higher the line, the better the value Buffalo would be.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7, 48)

Tough line to make, but again, bookmakers failed to anticipate the betting public. This is the fourth game out of all four being played over this weekend that the early money was on the home favorite. I’m not quite sure what oddsmakers were thinking when they made these four lines but it sure was an easy giveaway to the wise guys who had first access.

Each of these four games has a decent (although small) chance of being sided or middled. When you’re talking about the playoffs and the abbreviated schedule and high volume for each game, this can spell catastrophe for the bookmaker if just one game lands.

**Udog** · 01-05-2018, 08:38 AM

NFL

Saturday, December 6

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NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Titans at Chiefs
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Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 44.5)

Arrowhead Stadium has provided the Kansas City Chiefs one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL – until the postseason. The Chiefs will try to record their first home playoff victory in 24 years when they host the Tennessee Titans on Saturday in an AFC wild-card matchup.

The back-to-back AFC West champion Chiefs have won four straight following a midseason lull and again look like a contender. Their defense made a dramatic turnaround over the final month of the regular season, holding each of their last four opponents under 350 total yards while forcing 12 turnovers. The Titans are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008, squeaking in by snapping a three-game skid with a 15-10 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday. Tennessee went 3-5 on the road, where it averaged just 17.5 points and 270.8 total yards.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home favorites over the Titans. The spread was bet up as high as -9 before dropping slightly to -8 on Thursday evening. The total hit betting boards at 44.5 and remains on that same number heading into the weekend.

WEATHER REPORT:

INJURY REPORT:

Titans - TE Jonnu Smith (Probable, Concussion), CB Logan Ryan (Probable, Illness), CB Kalan Reed (Probable, Concussion), CB Brice McCain (Probable, Hamstring), G Quinton Spain (Questionable, Back), S Da'Norris Searcy (Questionable, Illness), RB DeMarco Murray (Out, Knee), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable, Back), CB LeShaun Sims (I-R, Hamstring), DL DaQuan Jones (I-R, Bicep), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).

Chiefs - WR Albert Wilson (Probable, Hamstring), WR Tyreek Hill (Probable, Personal), DL Bennie Logan (Probable, Knee), RB Charcandrick West (Probable, Flu), DL Jarvis Jenkins (Questionable, Knee), LB Tamba Hali (Questionable, Knee), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches (Doubtful, Ankle), DB Phillip Gaines (I-R, Elbow), WR De'Anthony Thomas (I-R, Leg), RB Akeem Hunt (I-R, Ankle), OL Mitch Morse (I-R, Foot), DB Steven Terrell (I-R, Undisclosed), LB Dee Ford (I-R, Back), LB Dadi Nicolas (I-R, Knee), WR Chris Conley (I-R, Achilles), DB Eric Berry (I-R, Achilles), RB Spencer Ware (I-R, Knee), DB Ashton Lampkin (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE TITANS (9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Tennessee’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance but has been inconsistent, with everything hinging on the running game. DeMarco Murray is doubtful with a torn MCL, meaning Derrick Henry likely will carry the load and try to establish the run to open up the passing game for Marcus Mariota. Tennessee’s defense ranks fourth against the run and came up big last week against the Jaguars with four takeaways.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U): Kansas City’s offense went through a slump while losing six of seven games in the middle of the season, but everything clicked again in its last four contests. Rookie Kareem Hunt finished as the NFL’s leading rusher while Alex Smith joined Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks in the league to pass for more than 4,000 yards with fewer than 10 interceptions, finishing with 4,042 yards and five picks. The Chiefs’ once-suspect secondary played well down the stretch.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games.
* Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
* Under is 4-0 in Titans' last 4 playoff games.
* Under is 4-1 in Chiefs' last 5 playoff home games.
* Road team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Titans at a rate of 54 percent and the Under is getting 53 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 01-05-2018, 10:50 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 6

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NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Falcons at Rams
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Atlanta Falcons at L.A. Rams (-5.5, 48)

The Atlanta Falcons rolled through the playoffs en route to the Super Bowl a year ago behind a high-powered offense that led the league in scoring. For the Falcons to take the first step toward a return trip to the title game, they will have to slow the NFL's No. 1 scoring offense when they visit the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday night.

Sixth-seeded Atlanta blew a 25-point lead over New England in a stunning collapse before falling in overtime in Super Bowl LI and has not looked like the same team this season despite registering 10 wins. “We’ve been tested,” Falcons coach Dan Quinn told reporters. “We’re battle-ready. ... This week will be another battle. This is now also when we get to test what we’ve done over the last 20 weeks to see how we can work together, and we’re really excited to do it.” The Rams won four games last season but earned their first trip to the playoffs behind second-year quarterback Jared Goff and star running back Todd Gurley, who are among the leading MVP candidates. "We certainly don’t shy away from what a great opportunity it is to be able to play on Saturday night, prime time," Los Angeles first-year coach Sean McVay told reporters. "I think it’s something that our guys will be excited about, going against the defending NFC champs."

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 5-point home chalk and money coming in on the home team saw that line up as high as -7 at some shops, before fading late in the week too -5.5. The total hit the betting board at 49.5 and has been bet down slightly to 48.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Atlanta holds the playoff experience edge in this game and as an underdog against a young Los Angeles squad. However, this is a tough scheduling situation for the Falcons as they must travel across the country on a short week, after two hard fought divisional games against the Saints and Panthers to finish the regular season." - Steve Merril[/B]

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Out of the gate we took smart action on Atlanta, but mostly since then it's been nothing but Rams money. Just recently we got some buyback on the Falcons, and currently we’re looking at 63 percent of the handle on L.A. The under is a popular pro play in that game but public loves the over." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT:

INJURY REPORT:

Falcons - RB Devonta Freeman (Probable, Knee), WR Julio Jones (Questionable, Ankle), Wr Andre Roberts (Questionable, Knee), DE Adrian Clayborn (Questionable, Calf), C Alex Mack (Questionable, Calf), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), TE Levine Toilolo (Questionable, Knee), WR Taylor Gabriel (Questionable, Hamstring), G Andy Levitre (I-R, Tricep), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion).

Rams - WR Pharaoh Cooper (Questionable, Shoulder), WR Mike Thomas (Questionable, Ankle), LB Mark Barron (Questionable, Achilles), LB Alec Ogletree (Questionable, Elbow), G Rodger Saffold (Questionable, Ribs), WR Cooper Kupp (Questionable, Knee), DB Blake Countess (Questionable, Concussion), DB Marqui Christian (I-R, Shoulder), DE Matt Longacre (I-R, Back), QB Brandon Allen (I-R, Back), K Greg Zuerlein (I-R, Back), CB Kayvon Webster (I-R, Ankle).

ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U): Atlanta won six of its last eight, with the only two losses coming against division winners Minnesota and New Orleans, but Matt Ryan had only five touchdown passes versus four interceptions in the final six games. He still has one of the league's most dangerous targets in Julio Jones, who caught 88 passes and eclipsed 1,400 yards (1,444) for the fourth straight season. The Falcons also feature the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a combined 1,493 yards and 12 touchdowns while adding 63 receptions and four scores. Atlanta surrendered 19.7 points per game and allowed only one 100-yard rusher.

ABOUT THE RAMS (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 11-5 O/U): Goff hardly looked ready for the bright lights after the 2016 No. 1 overall pick threw for five touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven games as a rookie, but he tossed 28 scoring passes against only seven picks this season. Gurley rushed for 1,305 yards and led the league in touchdowns (19) and yards from scrimmage (2,093) while rushing for more than 100 yards six times. Gurley also topped the team with 64 receptions while rookie Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods recorded five TDs apiece while making 62 and 56 catches, respectively. The Rams ranked 28th against the run despite the presence of stud tackle Aaron Donald (11 sacks).

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.

* Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.

* Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 playoff games.

* Over is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games overall.

* Favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

CONSENSUS:

The public is siding with the home chalk Rams at a rate of 52 percent and the Over is getting 61 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 01-07-2018, 11:45 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 7

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NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Bills at Jaguars
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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, 39.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills have one thing in common entering Sunday's AFC wild-card matchup - they hardly were trendy choices to make it to the postseason. The Jaguars will make their first playoff appearance since 2007 when they host the Bills, who staged a late run to reach the postseason for the first time since 1999.

Jacksonville was no fluke in going from worst to first, not only winning the AFC South title but also contending for the top overall seed until a surprising loss at San Francisco in Week 16. "They're a challenge across the board - offense, defense, special teams," Bills coach Sean McDermott told reporters. "You look at where they're ranked and where we are, and ask, 'What favors us?' Not a whole lot." Buffalo's one-dimensional offense could be without star running back LeSean McCoy as it prepares to face a Jaguars defense that ranks among the league leaders in yards and points allowed, sacks and interceptions. "This is the start of a different type of season," Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone, who guided the Bills in 2013-14, told reporters. "This is 12 teams. ... Every one of those teams is dangerous, and it comes down to how you perform on that Sunday."

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Jaguars as 7-point home favourites and that wasn't high enough for bettors, as the line was bet up to -9, before fading back to -8.5 at most books. The total opened at 40 and has been bet down a full point to 39.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The condition of RB Shady McCoy is of paramount concern to the Bills in this contest, especially considering that Jacksonville was 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in games in which they held foes to under 100 rushing yards this season. That and Buffalo was 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS this campaign in games in which they failed to rush for 100 yards. The Jaguars faced the softest strength of schedule the NFL this season and capitalized. However, they were especially adept against foes winning records, too, going 4-2 SUATS. " -Marc Lawrence.

WEATHER REPORT: 53 degrees and partly cloudy at gametime - 14 to 16 mph NE winds throughout the game

INJURY REPORT:

Bills - OT Conor McDermott (Questionable, Chest), CB Shareece Wright (Questionable, Concussion), OT Jordan Mills (Questionable, Ankle), RB LeSean McCoy (Questionable, Ankle), G John Miller (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), WR Andre Holmes (I-R, Neck), RB Travaris Cadet (I-R, Ankle), OT Cordy Glenn (I-R, Foot), DE Shaq Lawson (I-R, Knee), WR Jordan Matthews (I-R, Knee).

Jaguars - OL Chris Reed (Questionable, Knee), WR Marqise Lee (Questionable, Ankle), RB Chris Ivory (Questionable, Back), DT Abry Jones (Questionable, Back), OL Cam Robinson (Questionable, Abdominal), WR Jaelen Strong (I-R, Knee), WR Arrelious Benn (I-R, Knee), LS Matt Overton (I-R, Shoulder),

ABOUT THE BILLS (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U): McCoy, fourth in the NFL with 1,138 yards rushing, sprained an ankle in last Sunday's regular-season finale and was limited to stretching during Thursday's practice. McCoy also had a team-best 59 receptions and his absence would place a huge burden on quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who is second on the team in rushing and presides over the NFL's 31st-ranked passing attack at 176.6 yards per game. If McCoy can't go, the other options are veteran Mike Tolbert or Marcus Murphy, who had one career rushing attempt prior to gaining 41 yards on seven carries last week. Linebacker Preston Brown made 144 tackles for a defense that ranked 29th against the run (124.6 yards).

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U): Jacksonville's success is built on two familiar pillars - a running game led by rookie Leonard Fournette that paced the league at 141.6 yards per game and a ferocious defense that piled up 55 sacks and 21 interceptions while scoring an NFL-leading seven touchdowns. Blake Bortles completed a career-high 60.2 percent of his passes and had a career-low 13 interceptions - five in his last two games - but could get back leading receiver Marqise Lee (ankle). Fournette rushed for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns despite missing three games. Pro Bowler Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue lead the pass rush with 14.5 and 12 sacks, respectively.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

* Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.* Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 playoff games.

* Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games following a straight up win.

* Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS:

The public is siding with the underdog Bills at a rate of 57 percent and the Under is getting 52 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 01-07-2018, 11:47 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 7

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NFL Wild Card playoff betting preview and odds: Panthers at Saints
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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 47.5)

The New Orleans Saints hope to disprove the notion that it’s tough to beat a team three times in the same season when they host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in an NFC wild-card matchup. The rivals finished tied atop the NFC South standings, but the Saints earned their first division title since 2011 – and home-field advantage for the third meeting – by virtue of sweeping the regular-season series.

Both teams enter the postseason looking to bounce back from disappointing showings in Week 17. The Saints started 0-2 before a 34-13 victory at Carolina in Week 3 kicked off an eight-game winning streak, but they went 3-3 over their final six contests and their defense was gashed in a 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday. Carolina could have captured the division with a win at Atlanta last week, but the offense sputtered in a 22-10 loss. It was only the Panthers’ second defeat in their last nine games, but the other was a 31-21 setback at New Orleans in Week 13.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point home chalk and money coming in on the home team pushed that line up a full point to -6.5 at most books. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and money on the under has brought that number down slightly to 47.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both of these division rivals are wobbling entering this fray with the Saints just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last six games, while the Panthers have been outgained in 5 of their last six contests. Carolina enters with a double revenge chip on its shoulder, while New Orleans has won its last seven games in the Superdome after dropping its home opener to New England. This should be a battle royal." - Marc Lawrence.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - RB Jonathan Stewart (Probable, Back), G Trai Turner (Questionable, Concussion), S Kurt Coleman (Questionable, Ankle), CB Ladarius Gunter (Questionable, Illness), TE Chris Manhertz (I-R, Ankle), CB Cole Luke (Questionable, Ankle), DE Daeshon Hall (Questionable, Knee), S Demetrious Hall (Questionable, Knee), WR Damiere Byrd (I-R, Knee), LB Jared Norris (I-R, Calf), OT John Theus (I-R, Concussion), WR Curtis Samuel (I-R, Ankle).

Saints - DE Trey Hendrickson (Questionable, Ankle), TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Questionable, Concussion), OT Terron Armstead (Questionable, Thigh), FB John Kuhn (Questionable, Bicep), DE Hau'oli Kikaha (I-R, Ankle), DT John Hughes (I-R, Bicep), S Kenny Vaccaro (I-R, Wrist), LB A.J. Klein (I-R, Groin), NT David Parry (I-R, Ankle), DL Mitchell Loewen (I-R, Ankle), TE Coby Fleener (I-R, Concussion).

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Carolina’s offense has been fairly one-dimensional all season, but it has been a dynamic dimension with Cam Newton (754 yards, six touchdowns), Jonathan Stewart (680, six) and rookie Christian McCaffrey (435, two) leading the league’s fourth-best ground attack. Newton hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 5 at Detroit and has done so only twice all season, but he tossed three interceptions last week. The defense ranks third in the league in sacks, with Mario Addison and Julius Peppers leading the way with 11 apiece, and will need to shut down the run and pressure Drew Brees in order to have success.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U): New Orleans owns the league’s No. 2 offense, and it’s more balanced than in years past thanks to the rushing duo of Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara. The Saints even had success running the ball against Carolina’s third-ranked run defense, gaining 148 and 149 yards in the two meetings. New Orleans’ defense turned in two of its best performances of the season against the Panthers, holding them under 300 total yards in both games, but the Saints also have given up big yardage totals on a few occasions - including 455 total yards last week.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Over is 6-0 in Saints last 6 games following a straight up loss.

* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

* Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS:

The public is siding with the hometown Saints at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is getting 58 percent of the totals action.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wildcard Round (Sat., Jan. 6 - Sun., Jan. 7)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wildcard Round (Sat., Jan. 6 - Sun., Jan. 7)

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