NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 ( Sat., Dec. 21 - Mon., Dec. 25 )

[Udog]

NFL

Week 16

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Christmas Day NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Steelers at Texans
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (+9, 45)

Inches away from applying a vice-grip hold on the top seed and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers must regroup from their first loss in two months when they visit the Houston Texans on Christmas. Pittsburgh still has the inside track for a first-round bye and an outside at the No. 1 seed but cannot afford a slip-up.

The Steelers had an apparent go-ahead touchdown overturned in the final minute of last week's 27-24 loss to New England that dropped them behind New England in the chase for AFC supremacy. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it has a soft closing schedule featuring the punchless Texans and winless Cleveland, even though superstar wide receiver Antonio Brown is sidelined with a calf injury. "He's such a great player, and to me, they have other great players," Houston coach Bill O'Brien said of Brown, who leads the league in catches and receiving yards. "So, do they have guys that can make up for the loss of Antonio Brown? Yes. They're a very explosive team, but he's a great player. There's no doubt about it." Explosive is hardly the word to describe the skidding Texans, who have dropped six of their last seven games and are averaging 13 points during their four-game losing streak.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3.5) - Texans (+5.5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -6.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as high as 10-point road chalk and money coming in on the road team has brought that number down to +9. The total hit the betting board at 44 and has been bet up to 45.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - CB Joe Harden (Probable, Leg), CB Coty Sensabaugh (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Tyler Matakevich (Questionable, Shoulder), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Shoulder), G Ramon Foster (Questionable, Concussion), WR Antonio Brown (Out Indefinitely, Calf), RB James Conner (I-R, Knee), LB Ryan Shazier (I-R, Spine).

Texans - WR Braxton Miller (Probable, Concussion), G Jeff Allen (Questionable, Concussion), LB LaTroy Lewis (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Brian Peters (Questionable, Illness), DE Jadeveon Clowney (Questionable, Knee), S Kurtis Drummond (Questionable, Ankle), DE Joel Heath (Questionable, Knee), G Xavier Su'a-Filo (Questionable, Groin), LB Jelani Jenkins (Questionable, Concussion), OT Kendall Lamm (Questionable, Concussion), RB Andre Ellington (Questionable, Knee), NT D.J. Reader (I-R, Knee), QB Tom Savage (I-R, Concussion), TE MyCole Pruitt (I-R, Calf), C Nick Martin (I-R, Ankle).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Despite last week's injury to Brown, one of the team's league-high eight Pro Bowl selections, Pittsburgh appeared on its way to its ninth straight win before an overturned touchdown and Ben Roethlisberger's last-second interception in the end zone. Roethlisberger, who has thrown multiple touchdown passes in six straight games, still has plenty of options with talented rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant, who combined for 10 catches last week. He also has the NFL's leading rusher in Le'Veon Bell, a dual threat who has rumbled for 1,222 yards and eight scores while hauling in 80 passes for two more TDs. The defense is not scaring anyone, but cornerback Joe Haden is poised to return after missing five games due to a fractured fibula.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U): Houston's season unraveled following an injury to rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, who had injected life into the offense after replacing Tom Savage, who opened the season as a starter. Savage suffered a concussion in a loss at San Francisco in Week 14, leaving the Texans to go with third-stringer T.J. Yates, who was a woeful 12 of 31 for 128 yards in last week's mauling in Jacksonville and showed he wasn't the answer when pressed into service down the stretch in the 2015 season. The one bright spot on offense is wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has 92 receptions and leads the NFL with 12 touchdown catches. Former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney joined Hopkins on the Pro Bowl squad after posting a career-high nine sacks.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.

* Under is 10-1 in Steelers last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road favorite Steelers at a rate of 66 percent and the Over is getting 56 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL

Week 16

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Christmas Night NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Raiders at Eagles
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Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 46.5)

Eagles coach Doug Pederson essentially admitted that his brain had a mind of its own, so much so that he couldn't help but entertain various options with his team on the cusp of capturing the top seed in the NFC. Well, the club will have to earn it on Monday when it hosts the Raiders after the Vikings defeated the Packers on Sunday.

"I've begun thinking, but my focus is winning the game on Monday night, because that to me is the most important thing," Pederson said. Nick Foles stepped up in place of the injured Carson Wentz and threw for four touchdowns in Philadelphia's 34-29 win over the New York Giants, a total that is three fewer than when he tied an NFL record in Oakland on Nov. 3, 2013. The Raiders' slim postseason plans were dashed following back-to-back losses to Kansas City and Dallas, with the latter setback featuring an index card and a touchback as Derek Carr vied for the go-ahead score in the waning moments of the contest. "We're just going to play to win," coach Jack Del Rio said of his team's mindset. "We're going to do everything we can to get over this 'close but no cigar' finish we had."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (2) - Eagles (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Eagles -4.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 9-point home favorites and that number has been bet up as high as -10 at some books. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and money coming in on the under has driven that number down to 46.5.

WEATHER REPORT: 33 degrees and clear to partly cloudy during the game - winds at 14 to 15mph with 0% chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Raiders - WR Amari Coopers (Probable, Ankle), DL Denico Autry (Questionable, Hand), TE Jared Cook (Questionable, Wrist), C Rodney Hudson (Questionable, Ankle), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, Concussion), DB Keith McGill II (Questionable, Knee), Wr Cordarrelle Patterson (Questionable, Hip), DE Mario Edwards Jr. (Questionable, Ankle), DT Treyvon Hester (Questionable, Ankle), Wr Michael Crabtree (Questionable, Concussion), TE Clive Walford (I-R, Concussion), OT Donald Penn (I-R, Foot).

Eagles - CB Patrick Robinson (Probable, Concussion), DE Derek Barnett (Questionable, Groin), CB Jalen Mills (Questionable, Ankle), LB Mychal Kendricks (Questionable, Foot), G Stefen Wisniewski (Questionable, Ankle), CB Sidney Jones (Questionable, Achilles), S Chris Maragos (Questionable, Knee), QB Carson Wentz (I-R, Knee)

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Marshawn Lynch has scored five touchdowns in the past six games, but the rugged star will be tested by the league's top-ranked rush defense that is permitting just 71.5 yards per game. Carr tossed a pair of touchdown passes to Michael Crabtree versus the Cowboys, with the wideout reeling in seven receptions in back-to-back contests since serving a one-game suspension for his actions in the early going against Denver on Nov. 26. Amari Cooper was limited in Friday's practice with an ankle injury, leaving questions as to whether he'd take the field against the Eagles.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 O/U): Alshon Jeffery has collected seven of his NFC second-best nine touchdown receptions in the past seven games while Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz has scored a touchdown in six straight home contests. Nelson Agholor has gotten his piece of the pie with three touchdowns in his last four games, with 22 receptions for 264 yards in his last three. Jay Ajayi continues to churn out big chunks of yardage since being acquired in an in-season trade with Miami, averaging a robust 6.4 per carry in six games with his new team.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

* Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

* Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 Monday games.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Eagles at a rate of 52 percent and the Over is getting 68 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Setting lines for Week 17 is always a challenge for oddsmakers
Patrick Everson

“Early sharp money is on Atlanta, but it’s doubtful this will get too out of hand, considering the Panthers still have something to play for.”

Sportsbooks would love to have all the lines up already for the final week of the NFL’s regular season, but enough uncertainties exist in pivotal games that some numbers will have to wait until Tuesday. Still, Patrick Everson has some insights on where the lines will land in Week 17, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)

The line for this NFC East clash is on hold since Philadelphia played in the Week 16 Monday nighter against Oakland. The Eagles (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS) were awful on their home field, but connected on a last-minute field goal, then picked up a Raiders fumble on one of those last-second lateral plays and scored a touchdown to secure a 19-10 victory as a 10-point favorite.

With that win, Philly clinched home-field advantage for as long as it stays in the NFC playoffs.

Dallas (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) was eliminated from postseason contention on Sunday, despite being on its home field and with Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup. The Cowboys dominated the yardage stats against Seattle, but had three turnovers while forcing none, and that was a huge key in a 21-12 loss as a 4.5-point home chalk.

“This one won’t be as glamorous as it would’ve been had Dallas won in Week 16, but it will still deliver decent action given the teams,” Cooley said. “We have to expect Nick Foles will still be playing considering his limited time in the system, and the Eagles are deep, so them limiting starters doesn’t hurt them too much. Philadelphia deserves to be favored here, as it is just a much better team all around.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Atlanta is clinging to the sixth and final NFC playoff spot, with its Week 16 result putting the defending NFC champion in the likely position of having to win this week to stay in that spot. The Falcons went to New Orleans as a 5.5-point underdog Sunday and couldn’t get the offense going in a 23-13 setback.

Carolina is currently in the wild-card spot of No. 5 in the NFC, but could still win the South Division and, though unlikely, get as high as the No. 2 seed. The Panthers (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) barely escaped as a 10-point home fave against Tampa Bay on Sunday, with a last-minute Cam Newton touchdown securing a 22-19 victory.

“Obviously, the Falcons have everything on the line in this one,” Cooley said. “Early sharp money is on Atlanta, but it’s doubtful this will get too out of hand, considering the Panthers still have something to play for.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (no line)

Jacksonville is stuck at the No. 3 slot in the AFC, regardless of what happens in Week 17. The Jaguars (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) had won seven of eight heading into San Francisco on Sunday, but lost a shootout 44-33 laying 4 points.

However, thanks to Tennessee also losing in Week 16, the Jags clinched the South Division. The Titans (8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) fell to the Los Angeles Rams 27-23 as a 5.5-point home pup, their third straight defeat, yet still managed to hang on to the AFC’s No. 6 seed. The Chargers and Bills remain in contention to swipe that spot from the Titans.

Cooley said Bookmaker.eu was waiting until Tuesday to post this line, recognizing Jacksonville might not field all its best players.

“It doesn’t feel like the Jags are really in a position to sit players, considering the youth on that team, but you never know,” Cooley said. “Tennessee’s season is on the line. The Titans should be favorites given the situation.”

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Los Angeles continues to be a major surprise this season and currently occupies the No. 3 seed in the NFC race, already owning the West Division title. The Rams (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) held off Tennessee 27-23 Sunday, failing to cash as 5.5-point road favorites.

The Jimmy Garoppolo era is off to a strong start in San Francisco, with the team 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since he took over as signal-caller. In Week 16, the 49ers (5-10 SU, 8-7 ATS) had their biggest scoring output of the season, beating Jacksonville 44-33 as a 4-point home ‘dog.

“I definitely don’t expect L.A. to rest any of its young guns, as the Rams need experience and rhythm,” Cooley said. “That said, the public loves Jimmy G and the Niners right now, so we have to be wary of that and the fact that the Rams are in limbo of sorts.”

Cooley said the Rams will certainly be favored, but the number could be a little tighter if it looks like any key players are resting this week.