The Bums 2017 College Football Bowl Games Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Published 12-4....

College Football Playoff opening line report: Alabama opens favorite over Clemson, Oklahoma-UGA spread already on the move
Patrick Everson

Alabama and Clemson meet for the third straight year in the postseason, but this time a ticket to the National Championship is on the line.

Let the debate begin!

No, not over Alabama getting into the four-team College Football Playoff over Big Ten champion Ohio State. But rather, over the opening lines for the two national semifinal showdowns. Patrick Everson gets you right into those numbers and early action in Las Vegas, with insights from Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point, and Jay Kornegay, who runs the Superbook as vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas.

No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 1 Clemson Tigers – Open: Pick; Move: -1

Alabama had the weekend off, missing out on the SEC Championship Game after falling to Auburn 26-14 as a 6-point road favorite in the regular-season finale. The Crimson Tide (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) still managed to edge out Ohio State for the final CFP berth.

Defending national champion Clemson (12-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) boatraced Miami in the ACC final, winning 38-3 as a 12.5-point neutral-site favorite in Charlotte, N.C. Saturday. The Tigers and Tide met in the last two CFP Championship Games, with Bama winning two years ago and Clemson winning last year. The Tigers covered the spread in both games.

“We opened at pick. I kept saying I really thought Clemson should be the favorite, but that they’d bet Alabama,” Andrews said. “We’re up to -1 on Bama, a little public, a little sharp. I don’t mind Clemson at plus anything. We’ll see where bettors take me.”

The Superbook opened the Tide -1, briefly shot to -2, then dropped to -1 before splitting the difference at -1.5. The modest discrepancies between books doesn’t surprise Kornegay.

“The market’s just trying to settle down,” Kornegay said. “Every book is like that right now, flying around. There are a lot of respected opinions out there. It’s not like we’ve got guys with both hands full of money, making bets. Most people are just soaking it in. If respected players make a bet, you’re gonna move it, and you’ll also moved based on what the market is doing.”

No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1.5

Georgia took advantage of a revenge opportunity to win the SEC crown and reach the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs (12-1 SU, 9-4 ATS), who got trounced at Auburn three weeks ago, rolled the Tigers 28-7 as a 2-point neutral-site chalk in Atlanta Saturday.

Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) had no trouble in Saturday’s Big 12 final, dispatching Texas Christian 41-17 laying seven points at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

“We opened Oklahoma -3, now we’re down to 1.5. I’m seeing anywhere from pick to 1.5” at other books, Kornegay said. “In our eyes, we think Oklahoma could be the highest-ranked team. But these games are so close. It really is splitting hairs here.”

The South Point opened Oklahoma -2 with a plan in mind, but the line has stayed there so far.

“I thought that was a good number, because when you open on a number like two, if the wiseguys lay the two, you go right to -3, and if they take the +2, you go right to -1,” Andrews said. “We were the first ones up, and I really thought we’d go a point either way with wiseguy money. So far, we’ve got active play, but we’re still at two.”

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Bowl Season

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 16

TROY @ NORTH TEXAS
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing North Texas
North Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ GEORGIA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Western Kentucky's last 7 games
Western Kentucky is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Georgia State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

OREGON @ BOISE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games
Oregon is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Boise State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

MARSHALL @ COLORADO STATE
Marshall is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Marshall is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

MIDDLE TENNESSEE @ ARKANSAS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Middle Tennessee's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Middle Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 6 games
Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee


Tuesday, December 19

AKRON @ FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Akron is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Akron is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


Wednesday, December 20

LOUISIANA TECH @ SOUTHERN METHODIST
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Louisiana Tech's last 25 games
Southern Methodist is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games


Thursday, December 21

TEMPLE @ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Temple's last 5 games
Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida International's last 6 games
Florida International is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games


Friday, December 22

ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM @ OHIO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 8 games
Alabama-Birmingham is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Ohio is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games
Ohio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ WYOMING
Central Michigan is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Central Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wyoming's last 5 games
Wyoming is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

As this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.

December 16
Troy (-6) vs North Texas- New Orleans Bowl
Troy won its last six games, is 10-2 this year, with a win at LSU; Trojans have a 4-year starter at QB, are 2-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. North Texas won five of last six games, losing C-USA title game at FAU Dec 2. Mean Green is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Favorites won/covered three of last five New Orleans Bowls; Conference USA teams won last two. Troy won its last two bowls, is 3-3 all-time; North Texas lost three of last four bowls; they’re 2-6 all-time in bowls. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 8-23 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 1-2. Since 2014, C-USA teams are 10-4 SU vs Sun Belt teams, covering four of last six as an underdog vs Sun Belt foes.

Western Kentucky (-5) vs Georgia State- Auto Nation Cure Bowl, Orlando
Western Kentucky is 6-6 this year, after going 40-14 the previous four years; they allowed 30+ points in each of their last six games. WKU has a senior QB who has 41 career starts- they’re 1-5-1 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 in games with single digit pointspread. Georgia State has a senior QB who is grad transfer from Utah; Panthers are 6-5 this year, scoring 10 or less points in all five losses- they’re 2-3 vs spread as an underdog, 4-4-1 in games with single digit spread. Hilltoppers are 3-1 in bowls, winning last three years while scoring 49-45-51 points, but with a different coach. Georgia State lost its only bowl 27-16 to San Jose State in this same bowl two years ago, which was the first Cure Bowl. C-USA non-conference favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Sun Belt underdogs are 14-13. C-USA favorites covered six of last seven games when playing Sun Belt teams.

Oregon (-7.5) vs Boise State— Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon scored 117 points in winning its last two games after soph QB Herbert got healthy; they’re 7-5 but their coach already bolted for Florida State. Ducks are 4-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State has a junior QB who has made 36 starts; Broncos won eight of last nine games- they won MAC title, scoring 17 points in consecutive games vs Fresno. Boise is 2-0 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Boise is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they won Las Vegas Bowl three years in row, from 2010-12. Oregon lost its last two bowls, 42-20/47-41; average total in their last three bowls: 76.3. Favorites won/covered last three Las Vegas Bowls; Pac-12 teams won their last three visits here. Last three years, Pac-12 favorites are 14-12-1 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.

Colorado State (-5.5) vs Marshall— Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque
Colorado State is 7-5, dropping 3 of last 4 games, losing 59-52 at home to Boise when they led 35-17 at the half; Rams are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games- they’re 3-5 vs spread as a favorite, 3-5 in games with a single digit spread. CSU has a senior QB who has started 38 games. Marshall lost four of its last five games, losing last two games by total of three points. Thundering Herd is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 5-1 in games with a single digit spread- they’ve got a junior QB who has 33 starts. Rams lost their last three bowls, allowing 44.7 ppg- average total in their last five bowls: 74- they lost 61-50 in the Potato Bowl LY. Marshall won its last five bowls, allowing 16 ppg; they’re 10-2 all-time in bowls. Rams won 27-24 here October 20. C-USA teams covered seven of last ten games with Mountain West foes.

Arkansas State (-4) vs Middle Tennessee State, Raycom Media Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State split its last four games, losing 32-25 to Troy in Sun Belt title game; Red Wolves won a game 67-50 this year- they also lost 43-36 at Nebraska, but five of their last six games stayed under total. ASU is 3-2 in games with single-digit spread. Middle Tennessee is 6-6; they were favored by 7+ points in five of six wins- they’re 1-4 as an underdog this year. Blue Raiders’ last three games went over. MTSU lost its last four bowls, allowing 45-52 points in bowls the last two years; ASU is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34.3 ppg in last three. Sun Belt teams won two of first three Camellia Bowls. with an average total of 60. C-USA underdogs are 8-23 vs spread in non-league games this year. Last four years, C-USA teams are 9-5 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.

December 19
Akron @ Florida Atlantic (-22.5), Boca Raton Bowl
7-6 Akron is 4-3 vs spread as a double digit underdog this year; you don’t see many bowl games with a 22-point spread. Over last five years, double digit favorites are 18-12 vs spread in bowls, with biggest spread Oklahoma St (-17) over Purdue in a 2012 bowl they won 58-14. Zips are 1-1 in bowl games, winning 23-21 (+7) in Potato Bowl two years ago. Florida Atlantic is in its first bowl since 2008, but they’re at home here; Owls won last nine games (7-2 vs spread) after a 1-3 start; they’re 3-1 as a double digit favorite this year. FAU won both its bowl games; Kiffin was 0-2 in bowls at Tennessee/USC, scoring total of 21 points and he was favored in both games. Under is 9-3 in Akron games, 3-5 in last eight FAU games. Last three years, MAC teams are 13-6-1 vs spread when facing a C-USA opponent.

December 20
Louisiana Tech vs SMU (-5), Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
SMU is playing 25 miles from home, in its first bowl since 2012; this game is in the Dallas Cowboys’ practice facility, which seats 12,000 people. Mustangs are 2-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, 1-3-1 in games with single digit spread. Skip Holtz is 8-3 in bowls, 3-0 at Tech, scoring 35-47-48 points. Bulldogs are 3-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Mustangs won four of their last five bowls- underdog won all five of those games SU. SMU scored 40+ points in their last three games overall, but lost two of the three- they allowed 31+ points in last five games, an average of 279 rushing yards in last seven games. Last four years, Tech is 12-5 vs spread as an underdog. Last five years, AAC teams are 12-7 vs spread when playing a C-USA team.

December 21
Temple (-7) vs Florida International. Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl, St Petersburg
Temple won three of last four games; they’re 3-3 vs spread as a favorite, 5-0 in games with a single digit pointspread this year. Owls scored 34+ points in their last four wins. FIU allowed 37+ points in all four of its losses this year; they’re 7-0 when allowing less than 37 points. Panthers are 7-3 vs spread as an underdog this season, 4-1 in games with single digit spread. Temple lost bowls the last two years, giving up 32-34 points; they were favored in those games. FIU split its two bowls; this is their first once since 2011. Favorites are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl the last five years, with an average total of 46.4. AAC non-conference favorites are 9-5 vs spread this season; C-USA underdogs are 8-23. Last two years, AAC teams are 7-2 vs spread when playing a C-USA opponent.

December 22
Ohio (-7.5) vs UAB, Bahamas Bowl
UAB didn’t even field a team the last two years, after briefly dropping the sport. Blazers went 6-2 in last eight games after a 46-43 loss to North Texas; UAB is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 5-1 in games with single digit spread. Ohio U lost its last two games after an 8-2 start; Bobcats are 5-3 as a favorite this year, 6-2 in games with a single digit spread. MAC teams are 5-18 in their last 23 bowls, but they’re 7-1 vs spread when opposing a C-USA team. MAC squads are 5-4 as a non-conference favorite this year. C-USA underdogs are 8-23 vs spread. UAB is in its 2nd bowl; they lost 59-40 to Hawai’i in the 2004 Hawai’i Bowl. Ohio lost its last three bowls, giving up 32 ppg; they’re 2-8 all-time in bowls. C-USA is 2-1 vs MAC in the Bahamas Bowl, with average total of 72.3— underdogs covered two of the three games.

Wyoming vs Central Michigan, Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise
Wyoming QB Allen (shoulder) missed last two games; Wyoming lost both, 13-7/20-17. He is expected to play here, to quiet doubts of NFL scouts. Cowboys were 7-3 when he got hurt; they are 5-1 vs spread this season in games with single digit spread. Wyoming lost its bowl 24-21 LY, its first bowl in five years. Central Michigan lost bowls the last three years, allowing 41.7 ppg; they lost 55-10 in a bowl LY. Chippewas won their last five games after a 3-4 start; they’re 5-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread- they scored 37.2 ppg in last five games. Underdogs won last three Potato Bowls SU; average total in last five, 69.2. Since 2011, Mountain West teams are 14-10 vs spread when playing a MAC opponent.

December 23
South Florida (-2.5) vs Texas Tech, Birmingham Bowl
South Florida won this bowl 46-39 in OT LY; I’m not fond of teams going back to same bowl two years in row, especially minor bowls. USF split its last four games after a 7-0 start; their season was disrupted early on by Hurricane Maria. Bulls are 4-6 as a favorite this year; this is their first game all year with a single digit pointspread. Texas Tech lost five of last seven games after a 4-1 start; Red Raiders are 3-3 as an underdog this year, 2-4-1 in games with single digit spread. Charlie Strong was 2-1 vs Texas Tech when he was coach at Texas from 2014-16, with average total of 74 in those games; Strong is 3-3 in his career in bowls. Red Raiders won four of last five bowls, with average total of 72.6 in those games. Last five years, Big X teams are 10-9 vs spread when facing AAC opponents. Favorites won this bowl the last five years (4-1 vs spread), with average total of 58.8- AAC teams are 1-3 in this bowl the last four years.

San Diego State (-7) vs Army, Armed Forces Bowl, Ft Worth, TX
Army is 4-2 all-time in bowls; all six games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Cadets won seven of last eight games overall after a 2-2 start, and the loss was 52-49 to North Texas; they’re 4-2 as an underdog this year, 3-4 in games with single digit spread. San Diego State is 10-2 this year; they were held to 14-3 points in their losses, both of which were at home; Aztecs are 6-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 4-3 in games with single digit spread- they won three of last four bowls, winning 42-7/34-10 last two years. Army won its first Commander-in-Chief trophy since 1996; they’re Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five Armed Forces Bowls; academy teams are 1-3 in this bowl, 2-2 vs spread. One thing here; Aztecs’ last played on Nov 24, Army beat Navy on December 9th, so two less weeks of rest.

Toledo (-7.5) vs Appalachian State, Dollar General Bowl, Mobile, AL
Toledo is 10-2 this season, with losses by 22-28 points; Rockets scored 49.3 ppg in winning their last three games since their last loss. Toledo is 7-5 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 in games with single digit spread. Appalachian State is 8-4, allowing total of 30 points in winning their last three games; ASU is 1-1 as an underdog this year, 2-2 in games with a single digit spread. Sun Belt teams are 4-1 vs MAC teams in this bowl (favorites 3-2 vs spread, average total of 63). Rockets are 3-2 in last five bowls, with average total of 72.8; Toledo played in this bowl three years ago, beating Arkansas State 63-44 (-3.5), back when it was GoDaddy Bowl. Appalachian State won its first two bowls 31-29/31-28 the last two years, both in Montgomery, AL. Since 2012, MAC teams are 13-10 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams.

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising to jump on these early bowl odds now
Steve Merril

Sharps have flagged these bowl games as early lines to keep an eye on.

Spread to bet now

Florida International (+7) vs. Temple

This line for the Gasparilla Bowl opened +8 and was quickly bet down to +7 before it even opened at some other major sportsbooks. Play it now before it dips below this key number. Florida International will be excited for this game after a 4-8 SU season last year. It is the Panthers' first bowl game in six years. They were a solid 8-4 SU this year and finished the regular season with back-to-back wins in which they scored 104 points combined on offense.

Temple will be less excited for this game after a mediocre 6-6 SU regular season. The Owls were 10-3 SU last year before losing their bowl game as a 12-point favorite. Temple was also 10-3 SU in the 2015 regular season when they lost by 15 points as a 2.5-point bowl favorite. The Owls were a weak offensive team this season, averaging just 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.6 ppg and 6.1 yppl).

Spread to bet now

Appalachian State (+7.5) vs. Toledo

This line for the Dollar General Bowl opened at +8 and was quickly bet down to +7.5. Play it now while it remains above the key number of +7. Appalachian State enters with solid offensive momentum as they scored 31 points or more in three of their final four regular season games. Overall, the Mountaineers averaged 33.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this year, while allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

Toledo also enters off three straight wins, but might be a little flat after winning the MAC championship game. Toledo probably was hoping for a better bowl bid after a solid 11-2 SU season. The Rockets were strong offensively this year, but weak on defense as they allowed 5.6 yards per play versus a schedule of weak offensive opponents that averaged just 5.3 yppl overall. Toledo's defense is now taking a substantial step-up in class. The Rockets lost last year, 31-28, versus Appalachian State in the Camellia Bowl.

Total to bet now

Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (52)

This total for the Autonation Cure Bowl has risen a couple points higher since opening. These early minor bowl games do have a tendency to be higher scoring, but that might not be the case in this game with two weak offensive teams. Georgia State averaged a paltry 19.7 points per game this season on just 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 26.4 ppg on 5.8 yppl). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky averaged just 26.2 points per game on only 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 29.7 ppg on 5.8 yppl).

Both offenses were particularly weak down the stretch. Western Kentucky scored 23 points or less in three of their final four regular season games. Georgia State scored only 10 points in each of their final two games. The Panthers have a 5-1 Under mark in their past six games overall. Last year, Georgia State managed just 16 total points in this same bowl game.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

Saturday, December 16

NC A&T @ Grambling

Game 199-200
December 16, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC A&T
64.289
Grambling
58.334
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC A&T
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC A&T
by 9 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Grambling
(+9 1/2); Under

North Texas @ Troy

Game 201-202
December 16, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Texas
82.335
Troy
86.417
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 4
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 6 1/2
62
Dunkel Pick:
North Texas
(+6 1/2); Over

Georgia State @ Western Kentucky

Game 203-204
December 16, 2017 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
74.812
Western Kentucky
84.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 9 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 6
52
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-6); Under

Oregon @ Boise State

Game 205-206
December 16, 2017 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oregon
100.773
Boise State
90.674
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 10
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 7
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oregon
(-7); Over

Marshall @ Colorado State

Game 207-208
December 16, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
76.405
Colorado State
83.467
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 7
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 5 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado State
(-5 1/2); Under

Middle Tennessee St @ Arkansas St

Game 209-210
December 16, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Middle Tennessee
80.403
Arkansas St
87.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 7
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 3 1/2
62
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
(-3 1/2); Over


Tuesday, December 19

Akron @ Florida Atlantic

Game 211-212
December 19, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
77.302
Florida Atlantic
94.779
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 17 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 23
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+23); Over


Wednesday, December 20

Louisiana Tech @ SMU

Game 213-214
December 20, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
79.822
SMU
81.732
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
SMU
by 2
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 5
70
Dunkel Pick:
Louisiana Tech
(+5); Under


Thursday, December 21

Temple @ FIU

Game 215-216
December 21, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Temple
81.975
FIU
76.899
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Temple
by 5
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Temple
by 7 1/2
56
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+7 1/2); Over


Friday, December 22

UAB @ Ohio

Game 217-218
December 22, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UAB
76.334
Ohio
79.872
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 8
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(+8); Under

Central Michigan @ Wyoming

Game 219-220
December 22, 2017 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
83.665
Wyoming
80.740
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Michigan
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Michigan
Pick
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
Over


Saturday, December 23

Texas Tech @ South Florida

Game 221-222
December 23, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
87.322
South Florida
93.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Florida
by 6
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Florida
by 2
67
Dunkel Pick:
South Florida
(-2); Under

Army @ San Diego St

Game 223-224
December 23, 2017 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Army
87.882
San Diego St
92.719
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 5
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 7
46
Dunkel Pick:
Army
(+7); Over

Appalachian St @ Toledo

Game 225-226
December 23, 2017 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
88.443
Toledo
92.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toledo
by 4 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toledo
by 8
63
Dunkel Pick:
Appalachian St
(+8); Under


Sunday, December 24

Houston @ Fresno State

Game 227-228
December 24, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
92.404
Fresno State
88.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-2); Under


Tuesday, December 26

Utah @ West Virginia

Game 229-230
December 26, 2017 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
99.409
West Virginia
89.335
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 10
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 6 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-6 1/2); Over

Northern Illinois @ Duke

Game 231-232
December 26, 2017 @ 5:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Illinois
88.403
Duke
95.957
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Duke
by 7 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Duke
by 5 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Duke
(-5); Under

Kansas State @ UCLA

Game 233-234
December 26, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas State
98.103
UCLA
92.556
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas State
by 5 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas State
by 2
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas State
(-2); Over


Wednesday, December 27

Southern Miss @ Florida State

Game 235-236
December 27, 2017 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
83.445
Florida State
95.509
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 12
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 15 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+15 1/2); Over

Boston College @ Iowa

Game 237-238
December 27, 2017 @ 5:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston College
97.203
Iowa
96.445
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston College
by 1
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston College
(+3); Under

Missouri @ Texas

Game 239-240
December 27, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Missouri
100.703
Texas
93.664
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Missouri
by 7
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Missouri
by 3
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Missouri
(-3); Over

Purdue @ Arizona

Game 275-276
December 27, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Purdue
92.135
Arizona
98.226
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-3 1/2); Under


Thursday, December 28

Virginia @ Navy

Game 241-242
December 28, 2017 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia
85.445
Navy
86.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 1 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia
by 1 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Navy
(+1 1/2); Over

Virginia Tech @ Oklahoma State

Game 243-244
December 28, 2017 @ 5:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia Tech
97.988
Oklahoma State
99.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma State
by 1 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma State
by 4 1/2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(+4 1/2); Under

Stanford @ TCU

Game 245-246
December 28, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
101.802
TCU
101.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
Even
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(+2 1/2); Under

Michigan State @ Washington St

Game 277-278
December 28, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
96.404
Washington St
94.812
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington St
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan State
(+3); Over


Friday, December 29

Texas A&M @ Wake Forest

Game 247-248
December 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas A&M
90.976
Wake Forest
96.404
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 5 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 3
65
Dunkel Pick:
Wake Forest
(-3); Under

NC State @ Arizona State

Game 249-250
December 29, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
100.780
Arizona State
92.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 8
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 6
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC State
(-6); Over

Kentucky @ Northwestern

Game 251-252
December 29, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kentucky
95.559
Northwestern
99.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northwestern
by 4
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northwestern
by 7 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(+7 1/2); Over

Utah State @ New Mexico St

Game 253-254
December 29, 2017 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah State
80.782
New Mexico St
78.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah State
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah State
by 4
62
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(+4); Under

USC @ Ohio State

Game 255-256
December 29, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
USC
101.987
Ohio State
114.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 13
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 7
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-7); Over


Saturday, December 30

Louisville @ Mississippi St

Game 257-258
December 30, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
103.669
Mississippi St
92.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 11 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 6 1/2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-6 1/2); Under

Iowa State @ Memphis

Game 259-260
December 30, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Iowa State
97.335
Memphis
102.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 5
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 3 1/2
66
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-3 1/2); Under

Washington @ Penn State

Game 261-262
December 30, 2017 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
106.710
Penn State
111.229
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 4 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Penn State
(-2); Over

Wisconsin @ Miami-FL

Game 263-264
December 30, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Wisconsin
105.791
Miami-FL
100.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wisconsin
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wisconsin
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(+7); Over


Monday, January 1

South Carolina @ Michigan

Game 265-266
January 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Carolina
94.366
Michigan
97.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 3
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 7 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
South Carolina
(+7 1/2); Under

Central Florida @ Auburn

Game 267-268
January 1, 2018 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
97.665
Auburn
110.785
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 13
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 9 1/2
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Auburn
(-9 1/2); Over

LSU @ Notre Dame

Game 269-270
January 1, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LSU
102.479
Notre Dame
96.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 6 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LSU
(-3); Under

Georgia @ Oklahoma

Game 271-272
January 1, 2018 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
113.909
Oklahoma
116.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma
(+2); Under

Alabama @ Clemson

Game 273-274
January 1, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Alabama
113.525
Clemson
115.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(+3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

CAPPING THE COACHES
Jason Logan

One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.

That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.

“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

Perhaps the biggest coaching change, as it pertains to bowl season, is Scott Frost leaving Central Florida for the job at Nebraska ahead of the Knights' showdown with Auburn as 9.5-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl. Central Florida was snubbed by the CFP committee, despite an undefeated record, and is hoping Frost will be on the sideline for this finale against a SEC power. As of mid-December, Frost is back with the team and running practices and looks like he will coach on New Year’s Day. But, should those plans fall through closer to kickoff, it will be interesting to see where the team’s head is at.

Another big-name coaching move this bowl season is Jimbo Fisher bailing on Florida State for Texas A&M, replacing Kevin Sumlin and putting interim coach Jeff Banks in charge of the Aggies (+3) versus Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl. Fisher’s former programs, the Seminoles, barely became bowl eligible after a disastrous season, and will now face Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl, giving 15.5 points to the Golden Eagles on December 27.

Long-time defensive line coach Odell Haggins will step in as interim coach for the bowl game. While Haggins commands a lot of respect, being with the programs since 1994, many of those FSU standouts have to be thinking about their place in new head coach Willie Taggart’s system in 2018. Even Haggins has to be polishing his resume, not knowing his future in Tallahassee.

Taggart left Oregon before its showdown with Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and had Mario Cristobal in place as an interim for the bowl game. However, with so much support – especially from the Ducks roster - Cristobal was eventually promoted to head coach and is hoping to ride that momentum to a victory over the Broncos on December 16. Oregon opened -5.5 and is now giving 7.5 points in Las Vegas.

In a funny twist, Arizona State will have recently-fired head coach Todd Graham on the sideline for the Sun Devils' matchups with North Carolina State in the Sun Bowl. Graham was axed at the end of the year - replaced by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards - but he and his staff are hoping the players send them off as winners, despite oddsmakers pegging ASU as a 6.5-point underdog against the Wolfpack in El Paso, Texas.

Mississippi State takes on Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl on December minus head coach Dan Mullen, who leaves the Bulldogs for SEC rival Florida. That has interim Greg Knox running things this month as new head coach Joe Moorehead hits the recruiting trail and puts his staff together for 2018. Mississippi State is a 6.5-point underdog for this game at EverBank Field in Jacksonville.

Rounding out the coaching moves this bowl season is Chad Morris leaving SMU for Arkansas, with the Mustangs as 5-point faves versus Louisiana Tech in the DXL Frisco Bowl. Southern Methodist will look to interim coach Jeff Traylor, who will then go with Morris to the run the Razorbacks. So, who knows where his focus will be for this December 20 game in Frisco, Texas.


DO NOT PLACE MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING MOTIVATION
Jason Logan

Bowl season is many things to many teams.

To some, it’s the culmination of a hard-fought season. To others, it’s a relief from years of losing. And to a few programs, it’s a reminder of missed opportunities and wasted potential. Understanding the mindset of a bowl team is paramount before placing any bets.

Which programs are just happy to be invited to a bowl game and which ones are actually serious about winning? The first step college football bettors should take when looking at potential plays, is to call out any teams disappointed with the bowl they’ve drawn. While some could lack motivation, this situation usually serves as motivation with a chip on the team’s shoulder.

With the implementation of the College Football Playoffs, there has been a new factor thrown into the bowl betting mix with teams sitting just outside the Final Four feeling the sting of the playoff snub heading into their respective bowl game. This time around, Big Ten champ Ohio State didn’t receive an invite, leaving football bettors to question how the Buckeyes players will react to this letdown.

Ohio State settles for a showdown with Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl, despite winning the Big Ten Championship over then-undefeated Wisconsin. The Buckeyes were edged by Alabama – a one-loss SEC team that didn’t play for its conference title. Oddsmakers currently have OSU pegged as a 7.5-point favorite versus the Trojans in Texas.

Another team feeling disrespected this bowl season could be Central Florida, which finished the regular season 12-0 following a victory in the AAC Championship Game. The Knights were a long shot to squeak into the CFP Final Four but still held out hope of a playoff berth. Instead, UCF is playing Auburn in the Peach Bowl, getting very little respect from books and bettors. It opened +8.5 and is now up to a 9.5-point underdog in Atlanta on New Year’s Day.

Motivation just isn’t reserved for the big boys, though. Programs that barely qualified for bowl eligibility and still earned a berth in a postseason game can often times feel a sense of accomplishment. Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports calls these “Just glad to be there” teams.

“This might take some digging, but there are teams which are just happy to be aboard the gravy train,” says Aronson. “Coaches get a little more job security and players get to brag when they go home for semester break. With dozens of games, it’s a win-win for everyone.”

Littering the bowl season landscape are a number of six-win squads, that just barely qualified for postseason consideration: Western Kentucky, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Temple, Texas Tech, Utah, Duke, UCLA, Florida State, Texas, Virginia, Navy, New Mexico State, and Utah State all made the bowl grade by the skin of their teeth. Football bettors should do a deep dive into how coaches, players, and even fan bases feel about their respective postseason contests.

Bettors must also measure the motivation of teams that are ending an extended bowl drought, and determine whether they're feeling a false sense of accomplishment – bound for a letdown – or using that big stage to push the program even further up the food chain.

The longest bowl drought being quenched this month is a 57-year bowl absence by the New Mexico State Aggies, making their first bowl appearance since 1960. The Aggies just became bowl eligible with a win in the season finale and now travel to Tucson to play Utah State in the Arizona Bowl on December 29. New Mexico State opened as a 3-point favorite but action against the Aggies has moved this spread all the way to NMSU +4.

The UAB Blazers will be pumped up for their first bowl appearance since 2004, when they face Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl on December 22. There is extra emotion rolling into this bowl appearance as well, as UAB’s football program was shuttered for two years before returning to action this season, finishing 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. Alabama-Birmingham is a 7.5-point underdog in Nassau.

Lane Kiffin has Florida Atlantic playing in its first bowl game since 2008, guiding the Owls to a 10-3 SU record (9-4 ATS). They face the Akron Zips as 22.5-point chalk in the Boca Raton Bowl, playing on their home field for this December 19 contest.

Other teams snapping bowl droughts this month are: Southern Methodist (2012), Arizona State (2012), Purdue (2013), as well as Missouri and Texas, who both haven’t been to a bowl game since 2014 and met in the Texas Bowl on December 27 with the Tigers set as field-goal favorites.

One of the most underlying motivational capping tools is finding a team playing in the same bowl as it did last season. The 2014-15 bowl schedule found Arkansas State back in the GoDaddy Bowl for the fourth straight season, losing to Toledo 63-44 as a 3.5-point underdog in Mobile, Alabama.

“Teams returning to the same minor bowl game they played in last year tend to become disinterested,” notes Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

South Florida is back in the Birmingham Bowl for the second straight year, set as a 2.5-point favorite versus Texas Tech on December 23. The Bulls, who edged South Carolina in a wildly-entertaining 46-39 overtime victory in this bowl last season, could be a little flat after earning another trip to Alabama following a crushing loss to UCF in their regular season finale. On top of that, the bowl organizers somehow messed up the school’s name on the official game t-shirts, going with “South Florida University” instead of the proper title, “University of South Florida”.

Mike Leach and his Washington State Cougars are back in the Holiday Bowl, facing Michigan State as 2.5-point favorites. The Cougars lost to another Big Ten school, Minnesota, as 8.5-point chalk in San Diego last year. The venue switches to SDCCU Stadium in 2017 and Leach will be on the sideline for WSU after rumors he was in the running for the Tennessee job. He’s also in the hunt for a new contract extension.

Louisiana State makes its second straight stint in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, sitting as a field-goal fave to Notre Dame. The Tigers beat down Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson 29-9 as 3-point chalk. While this is a repeat bowl appearance, LSU doesn’t mind a spot on the January 1 schedule against the Fighting Irish.

And while it’s not a repeat in a particular bowl, Appalachian State and Toledo meet in a rematch of last year’s Camellia Bowl – a 31-28 win by the Mountaineers as 1-point favorites – when the connect for a December 23 date in the Dollar General Bowl. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites in this rare bowl revenge spot in Mobile, Alabama.


TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVES AND TAKES AWAY
Jason Logan

The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is on my side. YES IT IS!

All three famed phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and its postseason bowl appearance.

Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.

“The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre Over or Under-performance by teams involved,” says Steve Merril.

A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against, with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.

The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports.

A good example are the Central Michigan Chippewas, who finished the schedule on a five-game winning streak, becoming bowl eligible along the way and earning a ticket to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Chippewas, who are sitting at a pick’em facing Wyoming on December 22, will have had nearly a month off between the bowl and their final game of the season.

Northwestern was one of the hottest teams in college football, closing the 2017 campaign on a seven-game winning streak and earning a spot in the Music City Bowl versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will have been off for more than a month when they take on the other Wildcats as touchdown favorites on December 29.

The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.

Auburn is hoping the lengthy hiatus can heal up star running back Kerryon Johnson, who is listed as question with a shoulder injury for the Tigers’ date with UCF in the Peach Bowl. Johnson, who rushed for 1,320 yards and a team-high 19 touchdowns, will have just about a full month to recover between the Tigers’ loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and that New Year’s Day bowl appearance. Auburn could also get linebacker Tre Williams back from a shoulder injury as well.

The bowl break has also allowed Boise State to return two key weapons on offense for its matchup with Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Tight end Jake Roh and running back Alexander Mattison are expected to be back from ankle injuries, with the Broncos set as 7.5-point underdogs versus the Ducks on December 16.

Wyoming is hoping that month-long pause is enough to get quarterback Josh Allen back in working order for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against CMU. Allen passed for 13 touchdowns and ran in another five but injured his throwing shoulder on November 11 and missed the final two games of the season – both losses for the Cowboys.

Will Grier is hoping to be under center for West Virginia’s appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, taking on Utah on December 26. Grier underwent surgery on his broken middle finger on his passing hand in late November and is doubtful for the Mountaineers’ postseason game. Grier, who passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns, was replaced by sophomore QB Chris Chugunov in the season finale loss to Oklahoma, completely just 10 of 20 passes for 137 yards.

The Marshall Thundering Herd did get too much downtime between the end of the season and their showcase versus Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl on December 16, but it was enough of a break to get leading receiver Tyre Brady healthy. He’s caught 56 balls for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Marshall is a 5.5-point underdog to CSU.

And UCLA and top NFL Draft prospect Josh Rosen is likely to be on the field for the Bruins versus Kansas State in the Catcus Bowl on December 26. Rosen exited the season finale against Cal with a shoulder injury but the time off has allowed him to be ready for his final college outing.

While the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.

Washington State cut top receiver Tavares Martin Jr. for a violation of team rules last week, leaving the Cougars without their two best outside receiving targets after fellow WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack decided to leave Wazzu and transfer to a school closer to his family in Florida.

Georgia linebacker Natrez Patrick was running the risk of being suspended for the Bulldogs’ Rose Bowl matchup against Oklahoma due to drug charges following UGA’s win in the SEC Championship. However, the charges were dropped and the team has yet to hand down any punishment. Patrick was suspended four games earlier this year for misdemeanor marijuana possession.

With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.

Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the bookmakers during the bowl break.


Proximity to location a big factor for college football teams during bowl season
Ashton Grewal

There are three things you need to know before you bet any college football game this bowl season: who’s playing, what’s the pointspread and where is it being played.

Last year teams that traveled fewer miles than their opponents went 29-12 straight up (22-19 ATS) in the 41 college football bowls including the national championship game.

This wasn’t a one-year fluke either. Steve Yoost submitted a study to the Sport Journal in 2009 on the geographical effects on college bowl games. He looked at all 47 BCS bowl games from 1998 to 2009 to try and determine how proximity to a bowl game location can factor as an advantage.

He found that teams with the shorter trip covered the spread at a 55 percent rate (26-21) and 58 percent (24-17) when excluding games with negligible distance differences between the two traveling teams.

Yoost concluded the bowl system needs to be changed so that there wouldn’t be as much of a built-in advantage for schools playing in their own backyard. The problem is, of course, the people deciding the matchups aren’t interested in making things fair. They want the games to sellout and there to be enough local interest so that tickets can be marked up.

It’s much easier to drum up interest when one of the teams playing is essentially a home team. Take Florida Atlantic for example. The Owls will be playing in their home stadium for this year’s Boca Raton Bowl. Last year’s announced attendance for the game was a little over 25,000 in a stadium that holds 30,000, but pictures tell a story different story.

The Boca Raton Bowl committee is thrilled to have a locate team to pedal in its quest to sell this game out. Florida Atlantic opened as 17.5-point chalk against Akron but the line was quickly bet up to 22.5.

Here are a few more games with a large disparity in distance between the invited schools.

Military Bowl
Navy vs. Virginia
Odds: Pick, 55
Location: Navy’s home field

Liberty Bowl
Memphis vs. Iowa State
Odds: Memphis -3.5, 66
Location: Memphis’ home field

Orange Bowl
Miami vs. Wisconsin
Odds: Wisconsin -6.5, 45
Location: Miami’s home field

Belk Bowl
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
Odds: Wake -3, 64.5
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC – a little over an hour away from Wake’s campus.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Bowl Outlook
December 12, 2017

The college bowl betting season kicks off on Saturday, Dec. 16with a five course meal of lesser known teams that you probably need help navigating. I don’t blame you – there’s a lot to track out there. Here are your quick and easy betting picks for what’s always a fun day of football.

Let’s get you off on the right foot.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (1:00 p.m. ET)
Troy Trojans -7 over North Texas Mean Green

Former conference rivals clash in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl to kick off an always exciting college bowl season. A good two-thirds of the action is leaning towards Troy simply because they’re a better football team, but this line has wobbled by a half-point since opening, and it’s been leaning in the direction of North Texas.

That’s largely due to the fact that the Mean Green have an 8-5 against the spread (ATS) record, but any predictions on this game are based on the health of Jeffery Wilson. The explosive running-back for North Texas was injured and is unlikely to play. If he does, there’s a chance that North Texas covers but Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers will play in his final game after four years as a starter so emotions will be high. By the way, Troy has one of the best defensive units at this level. They’re worth the gamble to open up your post season college football betting.

American Cure Bowl (2:30 p.m. ET)
Georgia State Panthers +6.5 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

You probably steered clear of these two teams all season because they’re not noteworthy and they were both obnoxiously terrible against the spread, combining for a record of 7-16 ATS. The difference is that the mojo in Georgia State is a little stronger after they put a 6-5 SU season on the board after being a veritable punching bag for much of their existence. Western Kentucky has fallen off the wagon since losing head coach Jeff Brohm to Purdue. They went 11-3 SU last season and have gone just 6-6 SU this year, with a 3-9 ATS record to boot. In short, the Hilltoppers haven’t met expectation by any stretch. It would be a miracle if they started in the American Cure Bowl.

Las Vegas Bowl (3:30 p.m. ET)
Boise State Broncos +7.5 over Oregon Ducks

People who bet on the college football post season often know that Boise State is a bit of a bowl betting darling. They’re 7-3 SU when playing in a bowl game and are coming off a brilliant MWC Championship win over Fresno State. The problem with Oregon here is that people have the misconception that they’re still “Oregon”. There is also the worry that Willie Taggart’s sudden departure to coach FSU is going to kill any momentum that the Ducks limped in to this game with. With a strong line, and Boise State boasting a lethal defensive front, it’s not illogical to think that the Ducks will get shot out of the skies in this one.

GILDAN New Mexico Bowl (4:30 p.m. ET)
Marshall Thundering Herd +6.5 over Colorado State Rams

Marshall is a program on the way back after posting a 7-5 SU regular season that included an 8-4 ATS record. A lot of that was because the defence allowed just 19.2 points all season long. Colorado State has a definitive weapon in receiver Michael Gallup, but the Rams are a perennial underachiever that never seem to get better or worse. They’re an overrated program in my opinion and have also lost three straight bowl games, two of which have come under coach Mike Bobo.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl (8:00 p.m. ET)
Arkansas State Red Wolves -3.5 over Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

There’s a lot of problems with betting on Middle Tennessee in the post season. For one, they haven’t won a bowl game in their last four tries, and have been blown out by an average of +15.8 points per game. The Red Wolves tout a ferocious front seven that is sack hungry, and their passing game ranked 6th in the nation with 341.2 yards per game. They also put up a Sun Belt leading 7-4 ATS record which is worth backing. Middle Tennessee always loves being average in these games, and that won’t get it done against a strong tier two program that is simply better on the field than their opponents.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
December 13, 2017

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 16
Matchup Skinny Edge

NORTH TEXAS VS. TROY (New Orleans Bowl)...Mean Green on 9-5 spread run since late 2016, also 8-3 vs. spread against all except FAU this season (and 4-1 as dog vs. teams other than FAU). Troy 5-1-1 vs. spread last six away from home. Trojans also “under” 12-4 last 16 since late 2016.
Slight to Troy and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

GEORGIA STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Cure Orlando Bowl)...WKU a major disappointment vs. line this season, only 3-8-1 vs. points after 20-11-1 spread mark in the previous 32 of the Jeff Brohm era. Tops 1-6-1 as chalk this season. Panthers 14-5-1 vs. points last 20 away from home.
Georgia State, based on team trends.

OREGON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...Ducks failed to cover last four away from Eugene this season. Note that Boise 5-1 vs. spread away from home in 2017 and 16-6 last 22 vs. number away from home.
Boise State, based on team trends.

MARSHALL vs. COLORADO STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...Herd recovered to 8-4 spread mark in 2017 after dismal 4-8 a year ago but was alternating spread covers from midseason onward. Marshall was 5-1 vs. line away this season and was 5-0 as dog as well. Herd has also covered its last five bowls. Meanwhile CSU dropped six straight vs. number down the stretch in 2017 and has failed to cover last four years in bowls.
Marshall, based on team trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE vs. ARKANSAS STATE (Camellia Bowl)...Middle no covers its last four bowls. Also 1-5 vs. spread away from Murfreesboro this season. Ark State on 13-7 spread uptick since early 2016.
Arkansas State, based on team trends

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Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
December 13, 2017

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 19
Matchup Skinny Edge

AKRON at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Boca Raton Bowl)...FAU was a revelation in 2017, covering 7 of last 9 and 9 of last 12 this season, with last two Ls narrow margins (and aided by last-second gift safety in Marshall game Nov. 3). Owls 5-1 vs. spread last six at FAU Stadium, where this game in being played. Akron “under” 13-3 since late 2016. Zips 6-12 last 18 as double-digit dog.
FAU, based on team trends.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 20
Matchup Skinny Edge

LA TECH vs. SMU (Frisco Bowl)...SMU in first bowl since 2012 but HC Chad Morris has moved to Arkansas. Mustangs only 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven this season and 1-3-1 vs. spread away from home. La Tech 4-1 vs. line in bowls since 2008, 32-21 overall vs. line since 2014, 12-5 last 17 as dog.
La Tech, based on team trends.


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 21
Matchup Skinny Edge

TEMPLE vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (Gasparilla St. Petersburg Bowl)...Owls covered 6 of last 8 this season for Geoff Collins after dropping first four vs. line. Owls no covers in bowls the past two seasons. Butch Davis covered 5 of last six as dog with FIU this season.
FIU, based on recent trends.

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22
Matchup Skinny Edge

UAB vs. OHIO (Bahamas Bowl)...Frank Solich just 3-5 vs. spread in bowls at Ohio. Though the Bobcats were a solid 8-4 vs. line this season, also “over” 8-4 in 2017. UAB 8-3-1 vs. line in comeback season under HC Bill Clark this term. Blazers also 6-2 as dog in 2017, and Clark 10-4 in that role in 2014 & ‘17. Blazers “under” 3-8-1 this season.
Slight to UAB, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WYOMING (Idaho Potato Bowl)...Bohl streaky vs. line TY, lost three of bat, covered seven straight, then lost last two. Wyo on 15-7 spread uptick since early 2016. Cowboys just 1-4 as chalk away from Laramie since last season, though this game listed pick ‘em at many outlets. CMU rushed down stretch with five straight covers to close regular season after 4-13 spread skid in 17 prior games. Chips 5-2 vs. line away from home TY, 2-2 vs. line in bowls since 2012. Wyo on 12-1-1 "under" run!
"Under" and slight to Wyoming, based on "totals" and team trends.

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 23
Matchup Skinny Edge

TEXAS TECH vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (Birmingham Bowl)...Kilff Kingsbury 1-1 in bowls, was 1-2 SU and vs., line against Charlie Strong at Texas 2014-16. Kingsbury 7-2 last nine as dog, and 8-3 last 11 vs. points away from Lubbock. USF no covers in bowls last two years and closed season on 1-4 spread skid. Charlie Strong 5-9 last 14 vs. points since late 2016 with Texas.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.

ARMY vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Armed Forces Bowl)...Rocky Long has won and covered big in last two and three of last four bowls. Aztecs 5-0 vs. line away from home this season, 14-3 last 17 vs. spread away from Qualcomm.
San Diego State, based on team trends.

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SUNDAY, DECEMBER 24
Matchup Skinny Edge

HOUSTON vs. FRESNO STATE (Hawaii Bowl)...Fresno no wins or covers last six bowls since 2008, and Tedford also failed to cover his last three bowls at Cal. But Bulldogs 9-2-2 vs. line TY and 14-4-2 vs. points since midway in 2016 campaign. Tedford also 6-0 as dog this season and Fresno has covered eight straight getting points. Houston just 2-8 vs. line last ten away from home.
Fresno State, based on recent trends.


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Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
December 13, 2017

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 26
Matchup Skinny Edge

APPALACHIAN STATE vs. TOLEDO (Dollar General Bowl)...Rematch of LY’s exciting Camellia bowl won by App, 31-28. But Mounties only 2-4 vs. spread as dog the past three year and 1-5 vs. spread away from Boone TY. Toledo 6-2 vs. spread down stretch in 2017.
Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.

UTAH vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Heart of Dallas Bowl)...Utah’s Kyle Whittingham is 9-1 SU and 7-3 vs. spread in bowls with Utes. Utah 9-3 vs. line this season and 13-5 last 18 on board, also 15-4 vs. points last 19 vs. non-Pac 12 opposition. WVU and Dana Holgorsen 0-4 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2012 and only 2-8 last ten as underdog.
Utah, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. DUKE (Quick Lane Bowl)... NIU no covers in its last four bowls 2012-15. Huskies closed 2017 on 2-6 spread skid. Though did cover all four non-MAC games this season. Cutcliffe 40-23-1 vs. spread since 2013 and has covered three bowls in a row.
Duke, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE vs. UCLA (Cactus Bowl)...Teams met in 2014 Alamo Bowl won by UCLA, 40-35. Bruins 0-6 SU, 1-5 vs. line away from Rose Bowl TY, now 10 SU losses in row away from home, and 3-10-1 last 14 vs. points away from Rose Bowl. Bill Snyder only 2-5 SU and vs, line last seven years in bowls, but 5-2-1 vs. spread last eight away from Manhattan.
Kansas State, based on team trends.

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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 27
Matchup Skinny Edge

SOUTHERN MISS vs. FLORIDA STATE (Independence Bowl)...FSU 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, also 2-9 vs. spread this season. USM 8-4 vs. line in 2017, 10-4 last 14 vs. number since late 2016, and 5-1 last six as dog.
Southern Miss, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE vs. IOWA (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...BC closed this season on 8-0-1 spread tear. Addazio now 7-1-1 last 9 as dog. Ferentz no covers last three or four of last five bowls, and Iowa just 1-4-1 vs. line last six away from Iowa City.
Boston College, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. TEXAS (Texas Bowl)...Mizzou closed hot covering 7 of last 8 this season, but Tom Herman 4-1 as dog this season, and his Houston and Texas teams are 9-1 as a dog since 2015. Horns were 7-3-1 vs. line themselves down stretch in 2016.
Slight to Texas, based on Herman dog trends.

PURDUE vs. ARIZONA (Foster Farms Bowl)...Brohm covered bowls the past two seasons at WKU, and his Tops and Purdue teams are 28-15-1 vs. spread their last 44 games on the board. Brohm teams also 5-2-1 last eight as dog. Arizona 1-5 vs. line last six bowls, Rich-Rod 1-3 vs. points in bowls with Cats. Arizona closed season 0-4 vs. spread and is 7-19 last 26 on board since late 2015.
Purdue, based on team trends.

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THURSDAY, DECEMBER 28
Matchup Skinny Edge

VIRGINIA at NAVY (Military Bowl)...Mids have covered four straight in bowls but were only 0-3-2 vs. spread at Annapolis this season. Bronco Mendenhall, however, failed to cover his last three bowl tries with BYU.
Slight to Navy, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE (Camping World Bowl)...Fuente 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls at Memphis and VPI. Hokies just 2-3 as dog since last season but 6-3 vs. points last 9 away from Blacksburg. Gundy just 4-5 vs. spread last nine bowls. Cowboys “over” 13-7 last 20 since early 2016.
Slight to Virginia Tech and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

STANFORD vs. TCU (Alamo Bowl)...Stanford 4-1-2 vs. spread last seven bowls. David Shaw 3-1 as dog this season and now 11-3-1 as dog since taking over on Farm in 2011. Gary Patterson just 2-6 vs. number last eight bowls and Frogs just 10-16 overall vs. spread since last season.
Stanford, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. WASHINGTON STATE (Holiday Bowl)...Mark Dantonio has covered 4 of last 5 bowls but had failed to cover three in a row prior. MSU 2-2 as dog this season, now 19-7 in role since 2011 season. Leach 1-4 as chalk away from Pullman since last season.
Michigan State, based on team trends.

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 29
Matchup Skinny Edge

TEXAS A&M vs. WAKE FOREST (Belk Bowl)...Wake 9-3 vs. spread this season, 21-9 last 30 on board since late 2015. A&M no covers last two or 3 of last 4 bowls, 6-19 vs. spread in last five games of season since 2013.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.

NC STATE vs. ARIZONA STATE (Sun Bowl)...ASU improved to 7-4-1 vs. spread this season, 7-2-1 last ten in 2017. Also 5-1 as dog this season. Doeren 2-1 SU and vs. line in bowls with NCS, though Pack only 4-7-1 vs. line this season. NCS also “under” 13-5 last 18 since mid 2016.
Arizona State and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

KENTUCKY vs. NORTHWESTERN (Music City Bowl)...UK stumbled down the stretch, covering just 1 of last 8 this season, Mark Stoops just 2-9 vs. points last nine outside of SEC. UK also no covers its last three bowls since 2009. Meanwhile NU covered last 7 and 9 of last 10 this season.
Northwestern, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE vs. NEW MEXICO STATE (Arizona Bowl)...NMSU first bowl since 1960! Las Cruces 9-6-1 last 16 as dog, cooled a bit down stretch this season after opening 4-0-1 vs. spread, now 13-9-1 last 23 on board since early LY. But 6-0-1 last seven vs. spread outside of Sun Belt. Utags “over” 13-5-1 last 19 since mid 2016.
Slight to New Mexico State and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SOUTHERN CAL vs. OHIO STATE (Cotton Bowl)...Trojans on 4-10 spread skid since late 2016, 7-15 vs. points last 22 away from Coliseum. SC no covers last three and four of last five bowls, and Trojans also 1–9 last ten as dog. Urban 14-7 vs. spread last 21 away from Big Horseshoe and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls/playoffs with Buckeyes.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 30
Matchup Skinny Edge

LOUISVILLE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Taxslayer Bowl)...MSU 3-4 vs. line in bowls since 2010, but Bulldogs also 15-7 their last 22 as dog since late 2013. 'Ville covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 this season after extended slump prior in which it was 1-10 previous 11 vs. spread.
Mississippi State, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at MEMPHIS (Liberty Bowl)...Memphis has been pounded the past two seasons in bowls. In last 16 games with spread of 10 or fewer, Tigers just 6-10 vs. points, suggesting bully characteristics. ISU 6-1-1 vs. spread down stretch TY, 8-2-2 overall vs. line, 7-3-1 last 11 as dog. Cyclones also 15-5-2 vs. spread last 22 on board for HC Matt Campbell.
Iowa State, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. PENN STATE (Fiesta Bowl)...James Franklin cooled a bit late in the season while dropping 3 of last 4 vs. line, but had covered 16 of 18 prior. Franklin 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls at Vandy and Penn State. Huskies just 6-6 vs. spread last 12 away from Seattle and Petersen 1-2 vs. spread in bowls with U-Dub.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at MIAMI-FLA. (Orange Bowl)...If counting last year as a W at Cotton vs. WMU, Badgers have covered three straight in bowls, and are 20-8-1 last 29 overall vs. number since late 2015. Canes no covers last three this season and were only 5-7 vs. line for Richt TY.
Slight to Wisconsin, based on team trends.

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MONDAY, JANUARY 1
Matchup Skinny Edge

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. MICHIGAN (Outback Bowl)...Teams met in this same game five years ago won by SC, 33-28. Harbaugh only 7-11-1 vs. spread last 19 on board, meanwhile Muschamp on 8-4-1 spread uptick since late LY. Gamecocks 7-0-1 last 8 as dog as well.
South Carolina, based on team trends.

UCF vs. AUBURN (Peach Bowl)...UCF 15-9-1 vs. line since last season (counts Cincy TY as win), 8-3 last 11 vs. line away from home. Malzahn 1-2 SU and vs. line last three bowls, only 6-12 last 18 on board overall (6-7 TY).
UCF, based on team trends.

LSU vs. NOTRE DAME (Citrus Bowl)...Ed Orgeron covered last six this season and is 13-6-1 vs. points since taking over Tigers just before midseason LY. Also 7-1-1 vs. line away from Baton Rouge. Irish faded down stretch TY with no covers last four, and Brian Kelly just 1-4 vs. line last five bowls.
LSU, based on team trends.

GEORGIA vs. OKLAHOMA (CFP Rose Bowl)...Sooners just 4-7 vs. spread last 11 bowl games. OU also only 3-4 vs. spread away from Norman TY. Georgia on 10-4 spread uptick for Kirby Smart since late LY. Also 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from Athens.
Georgia, based on team trends.

ALABAMA vs. CLEMSON (CFP Sugar Bowl)...Clemson has covered this matchup in playoffs past two years. “Big Game” Dabo now 9-1 vs. line last ten in bowls/conference title games. Tigers covered last four down stretch and now on 11-4-1 spread run since late LY. Saban only 5-8 vs. points last 13 on board.
Clemson, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Notebook - Day 1
December 15, 2017

There isn't another time of year quite like the bowl season in college football. The first several bowl games of the year afford an opportunity to give bettors a chance to see teams that aren't regularly on television, and many of the games are in standalone spots. On the first day of the two-and-a-half-week bonanza, there are five games for bettors to indulge in before heading into the Christmas week.

A Penny for Your Thoughts

Penny Hart is arguably going to be the best player on the field at the Cure Bowl on Saturday afternoon in Orlando. He's a legitimate NFL prospect and is Georgia State's best receiver by a country mile. He had 1,094 yards in just 11 games this season, but a foot injury slowed him down against Idaho at the end of the regular season.

When the news broke the Hart was questionable for the Cure Bowl, BookMaker.eu saw a bit of sharp action come in on Western Kentucky to move the spread from -5 up to -6.5. Hart is likely to suit up on Saturday, and once he's officially in the game, it's going to be interesting to see if the Cure Bowl odds come back just a bit.

A Rare Power Five Appearance

Last season, the first team from a Power Five conference that appeared in a bowl game was Mississippi State at the St. Petersburg Bowl on December 26. This year, we're getting an early glimpse at the Pac-12 in the Las Vegas Bowl with Oregon playing against Boise State.

You might think that these Power Five teams have motivational problems playing in games of such little consequence relative to what could have been had the year been a greater success, but history actually doesn't suggest that.

In 2015, the Pac-12 had two teams playing on the first day of the bowl season, Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl and Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Both teams were victorious, and Arizona was just a point away from making it a 2-0 ATS sweep for the Pac-12 as well.

A Power Five team hasn't lost on the first day of the bowl season since Colorado State upset Washington State in the 2013 New Mexico Bowl.

The Marshall Plan

It's been a while since Marshall was truly relevant on a national stage, but Doc Holliday still deserves a lot of credit for bringing a small school from Huntington, West Virginia to bowl games in five of the last seven seasons.

They say that you should bet on coaches more than on teams in the bowl season, and Marshall would fit that to a 'T'. The Herd are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS under Holliday in bowl games, and they are 10-1 in their last 11 bowl appearances dating all the way back to the days of Chad Pennington and Randy Moss.

Camellia Bowl Total Rising

With every passing day, the total in the Camellia Bowl continues to increase. BookMaker.eu opened the total for the duel between Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State at 57.5, a number that has gotten as high as 64 as of Wednesday evening.

Of the 40 bowl games on the board this year, no side or total has seen a more drastic change than this.

It's no wonder this total continues to rise; though MTSU's holistic offensive numbers aren't great, the team has scored at least 30 points in five of its six games with Brent Stockstill under center.

College Football Bowl Game Odds for Saturday, December 16

New Orleans Bowl: North Texas vs. Troy (-6.5, 62.5)

Cure Bowl: Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (-6.5, 52.5)

Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon vs. Boise State (+7, 60.5)

New Mexico Bowl: Marshall vs. Colorado State (-5.5, 58)

Camellia Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. Arkansas State (-4, 64)

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
December 14, 2017

**Troy vs. North Texas**

New Orleans Bowl History

-- The Troy Trojans (10-2 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) of the Sun Belt Conference meet the North Texas Mean Green (9-4 straight up, 8-5 against the spread), runners-up in Conference USA, at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. It's a matchup between former conference rivals, as North Texas was a part of the Fun Belt, Sun Belt until moving to C-USA in 2013. Troy opened as a 5 1/2-point favorite, and the line has reached as high as a touchdown before settling in at 6 1/2 as of Thursday morning. The total has been as low as 60 before reaching and holding steady around 62.

-- The Trojans enter the bowl on a six-game win streak, and they have covered three in a row. They also have a victory against a Power 5 team, a 24-21 victory at Louisiana State back on Sept. 30. The Trojans won 10 games last season after topping Ohio University by a 28-23 count in the Dollar General Bowl. They're looking for a three-game bowl win streak against their old friends from Denton, Texas. The Trojans turned a lot of heads with 38.7 points per game during their impressive six-game run, and the play of senior QB Brandon Silvers has been a major reason for their success.

-- Silvers and the offensive unit made a lot of headlines, but the defense deserves a lot of attention, too. Troy led the nation in red-zone defense, limiting their opponents to 23 scores on 39 attempts. The Troy defense allowed just six rushing scores, 10 passing touchdowns and seven field goals in the 39 attempts inside their 20. The D was good outside of the red zone, too, posting 101 tackles for loss while ranking 11th in the country in scoring defense by giving up just 17.5 points per game (PPG). If Troy is going to be beaten, it might be through the air, as they allowed 225.3 yards per game to rank 70th in the nation.

-- The offense for Troy ranked 48th in total yards, posting 417.1 yards per game while finishing with 30.0 PPG, good for 50th in the land. The kicking game was an adventure, as they were able to muster just 57.9 percent on their attempts, checking in 114th in the country. That's something to watch in a close game. Silvers threw for 2,985 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions while also adding four scores with his legs. However, Silvers won't be confused with a dual-threat option, as he leaves the rushing to Jordan Chunn, Josh Anderson and Jamarius Henderson. Chunn led the club with 774 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 5.0 yards per tote. Anderson and Henderson also found the end zone four times.

-- On the receiving end, four players were good for at least 31 receptions. WR Deondre Davis led the way with 48 receptions, 628 yards, four touchdowns and 13.1 yards per catch. WR Damion Willis was good for 31 receptions and 485 yards, posting an impressive 15.6 yards per grab, but he ended up celebrating in the end zone just once. WR Emanuel Thompson was second on the club with 38 snags and 11.1 yards per reception. Former Mississippi Gulf Coast CC standout WR Tevaris McCormick was also able to gather 32 balls for 314 and two touchdowns working out of the slot. Chunn is a threat out of the backfield, too, hauling in 28 passes for 204 yards.

-- As mentioned, if you're going to beat Troy's defense it will be through the air. That's where North Texas excelled on offense, led by the dynamic QB Mason Fine. He completed 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,749 yards with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He'll need to be good, as the team could again be without their leading rusher, RB Jeffery Wilson. He missed the past two games due to a broken bone in his foot, and he appears unlikely to play in NOLA. If not, the tailback responsibilities will fall to Nic Smith, who had 665 yards and six touchdowns. However, Wilson's 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns are tough to replace, as the Mean Green found out in the Conference USA Championship loss to Florida Atlantic.

-- Unlike the Trojans, UNT was very solid in the kick game. They converted 90.5 percent of their field-goal attempts, ranking third in the nation in the category. Overall they were 19th in total yards (467.2 per game), 21st in passing yards (291.0 per game) and 20th in points scored (35.9 PPG). On the defensive side of the ball they were 97th in the country with 431.2 yards per game allowed, while being gouged for 208.1 yards per game, 107th in the nation.

-- Join Wilson on the shelf is WR Jalen Guyton, who is officially listed as questionable for the bowl game due to concussion. He was the team's leading receiver with 764 yards and nine touchdowns. If he cannot play it would be Michael Lawrence, who led the team with 56 catches, attempting to pick up the slack. WR Rico Bussey Jr. was an important cog down the stretch, and he finished third on the team with 613 yards and six touchdowns. As mentioned, the kicking game was solid, and PK Trevor Moore has some length, booting through a 48-yarder this season while posting 109 total points.

-- As a single-digit favorite this season, Troy was 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS, winning and covering each of their past two instances on the road at Georgia State Oct. 21 and at Arkansas State in the season finale Dec. 2.

-- As a single-digit underdog this season, UNT won three times outright, going 3-1 SU/ATS, including wins at Southern Mississippi, at home against Texas-San Antonio and at Louisiana Tech.

-- Troy is 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games against teams with a winning overall record, although they're just 2-5 ATS in their past seven following a cover in their most recent game. They're also 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games.

-- Troy is on a two-game winning streak in bowl games, with both victories coming against Ohio from the MAC. They're 3-3 all-time in bowl games, going 2-1 in their three previous appearances in New Orleans.

-- North Texas is 7-1 ATS in their past eight non-conference tilts, and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall. The 'over' has cashed in six bowl games in a row for UNT, too, although the 'under' is 12-4 in their past 16 overall and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning record.

-- UNT lost their postseason game against Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl last December, 38-31, and they have dropped three of their past four bowl games. They're also 1-3 all-time in the New Orleans Bowl, with their lone win coming against Cincinnati in 2002. The Mean Green are 2-6 all-time in bowl games.

-- These teams last met Sept. 22, 2012, and it was Troy coming away with a 14-7 victory in Denton in a game which easily hit the 'under'.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State**

Cure Bowl History

-- In the Autonation Cure Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. it will be Western Kentucky (6-6 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) squaring off against Sun Belt representative Georgia State (6-5 straight up, 4-7 against the spread).

-- The Hilltoppers from Conference USA had an up and down season. After Oct. 20 they were sitting at 5-2 SU, but they dropped four of their final five games and needed overtime to win against Middle Tennessee Nov. 17 to secure bowl eligibility. Western Kentucky also had difficulty away from home, going 2-4 SU/1-5 ATS. They also failed to cover eight of their first nine games, but managed to cover two of their three final outings.

-- Western Kentucky ranked ninth in the nation in passing yards per game, posting 333.7 yards. They were awful running the ball, however, averaging just 66.9 yards per game to finish 130th in the nation. The kicking game was an adventure, too, converting just 60.0 percent of their field goals to check in 109th in the country. Western Kentucky allowed at least 30 points per game in each of their past six outings after giving up 23 or fewer points in each of their first six outings.

-- On the defensive side of the ball, the Toppers allowed 373.7 yards per game to rank 50th, while giving up just 201.1 yards per game through the air to rank 37th in the country. They were mediocre against the rush, yielding 172.6 yards per game to rank 77th.

-- Georgia State heads into their bowl game with 385.1 yards per game, ranking 87th in the country. A majority of their offensive output came through the air, as they ranked 31st in the land with 270.2 yards per outing, while managing just 114.9 yards per game on the ground to rank 117th. They struggled to put up points, too, posting just 19.7 points per game to check in 119th in offense, worst among all bowl teams. A lot of their struggles to put points on the board were their failures in the kicking game, converting just 50.0 percent of their field goals, ranking 122nd in the country.

-- Georgia State QB Conner Manning completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 2,870 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions while he also rushed for a score. The Panthers didn't do a lot on the ground, as their leading rusher Glenn Smith had 521 yards and three touchdowns, but just 3.5 yards per attempt. Runner-up Kyler Neal was even worst at just 2.9 yards per attempt, but he led the team with four rushing touchdowns.

-- WR Penny Hart is the man to watch in blue, as he hauled in 73 receptions for 1,094 yards and eight scores, averaging 15.0 yards per reception. He'll be the player Western Kentucky needs to attempt to shut down. Glenn Smith came out of the backfield to gather 43 receptions for 342 yards and a score. WR Tamir Jones was also a threat in the pass game with 10.9 yards per reception, although he failed to reach the end zone.

-- WKU QB Mike White had a very common name, but his game was anything but common. He completed 65.6 percent of his pass attempts for 3,826 yards with 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while he was able to punch in six touchdowns on the ground. RB D'Andre Ferby averaged just 3.2 yards per game on his 112 attempts, but he still led the team with 362 yards and three touchdowns. As mentioned, running the ball isn't the strong suit of the Hilltoppers. In the receiving game it was WR Nacarius Fant leading the charge with 67 grabs, 634 yards and four touchdowns. WR Lucky Johnson managed a team-best 16.0 yards per catch with 592 yards and three touchdowns. TE Deon Yelder was a handful for opposing defenses, too, grabbing 47 receptions for 576 yards and five scores.

-- The Hilltoppers finished 3-9 ATS in their 12 games overall, and they are 1-4 ATS in their past five tries against teams from the Sun Belt Conference. They're also 0-4 ATS in their past four non-conference games, while going just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 attempts on fieldturf surfaces. The 'over' is 4-0 in WKU's past four neutral-site games, and 5-2 in their past seven overall. The over is also 16-5-1 in their past 22 games against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games overall, and 1-4 ATS in their past five on fieldturf. As far as totals, the 'under' is 4-1 in their past five non-conference games, while going 22-7 in their past 29 games overall.

-- This will be just the fifth bowl appearance for the Hilltoppers, although it will be their fourth straight season playing in a postseason game. They won the Bahamas Bowl in 2014, and the Miami Beach Bowl in 2015, under Jeff Brohm, and they pushed aside Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl last season by a 51-31 count. If the past three years are any indication, Western is coming to play offense. They have averaged 48.3 PPG over their past three bowls, scoring at least 45 in each outing.

-- Georgia State has just one previous appearance in a bowl game, and that was in the 2015 Autonation Cure Bowl back on Dec. 19, 2015. They came up short against San Jose State by a 27-16 count in that one. These teams met once before back on Nov. 2, 2013 in Atlanta, with the Hilltoppers besting the Panthers by a 44-28 count.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Bowl Best Bets
December 13, 2017

Saturday College Football Bowls Best Bets

The 2017 College Football Bowl season officially begins on Saturday with five Bowl games on the betting board. These early Bowl games can be a great way to boost your bankroll before the big games kick-off around the New Year, but they can also be somewhat tricky to handicap given motivational levels for some teams.

There are always plenty of programs that are ecstatic they've gotten into a Bowl game, but there are others who aren't exactly thrilled with how their season turned out and the last place they want to be is playing in one of these mid-December Bowl games. That notion might not specifically apply to these teams playing on Saturday, but it's definitely something to keep in mind during the next couple of weeks.

With five Bowl games on Saturday to break down and choose from, here is where my money is going.

Las Vegas Bowl – Boise State vs Oregon

Best Bet #1: Over 59 points

Boise State may be one of those college football teams that can be classified in the “not exactly thrilled to be here” category as a 10-3 SU record and Mountain West Championship wasn't enough to push this team to a bigger Bowl game on a later date.

In fact, of the 10 teams in action on Saturday only Troy and Boise State finished the year with more than 7 wins so playing on the first Saturday is not really ideal for either program. Whether or not that ends up translating on the field – Boise is a TD underdog – remains to be seen. But what should translate on the field for this game is plenty of scoring from both sides.

Before Boise finished the season with two consecutive games against Fresno State (regular season finale and MWC Championship), this was an offense that had scored 40+ in four straight games as they were beating up on some bad teams. Oregon isn't exactly a bad team at 7-5 SU, but their defense is far from great as they allowed 28.3 points per game on average and had trouble slowing down the better teams in the Pac-12.

This Broncos offense is somewhat comparable to teams like UCLA (scored 31 vs Oregon), Washington (scored 38 vs Oregon), Washington State (scored 33 vs Oregon) and Stanford (scored 49 vs Oregon), and after two straight games vs. Fresno where Boise failed to score more than 17 points, the Broncos offense should show up somewhat.

For Oregon, this season has been all about whether or not QB Justin Herbert has been healthy. Herbert started seven games for the Ducks this year (6-1 SU), but more importantly he is the guy that makes this offense go. In those seven contests the Ducks never scored fewer than 35 points in a single game, as they averaged 52.14 points per game in Herbert's starts.

Compare that to the five games Oregon played without him under center when they scored 14 or fewer points in four of those games with the lone high mark being a 41-20 win over Utah. Oregon averaged a measly 15 points per game during that stretch so you can see just how important Herbert is to this program. Herbert is back healthy again and could be primed for a breakout campaign in 2018, but if that indeed does happen it needs to start in this Bowl game.

The fact that Oregon's offense is seemingly unstoppable with Herbert under center makes this total way too low in my opinion. Yes, Boise State's defense is fairly solid, but when teams aren't thrilled about the Bowl game they are in it's usually the defense that drops off first.

With that unit having to line up every five seconds to deal with Oregon's tempo and speed, they'll be the ones getting pretty tired pretty quickly and that's precisely when the Ducks hit you with a big play. Heck, if Oregon even sniffs their scoring average with Herbert under center (52.14), Boise State's offense can be as flat as they want, will only need one or two scores from them to cash this 'over' play.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State

[B
Best Bet #2: Under 62.5 points[/B]

This is a Bowl game where motivation concerns shouldn't apply as both teams are happy they got to be involved in December football. Middle Tennessee finished 6-6 SU thanks to three wins in their final four games, and it was consistent play by their offense that led them to that stretch run. Middle Tennessee scored 30 or more in each of their final four games (the loss came in OT) and they are hoping that offense shows up in the Camellia Bowl on Saturday.

However, I wouldn't be so quick to jump on board with that thought as more than 90% of bettors are right now according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentages because having two highly motivated teams doing battle in a Bowl game is usually where the unexpected shows up. In this case the 'unexpected' is the respective defenses putting their stamp on this game and you know after tough rough weeks on that side of the ball for Arkansas State to close out the year, the coaching staff has likely been emphasizing defense during all these Bowl practices.

Prior to giving up 32 and 50 points respectively to end the regular season, Arkansas State went six straight games of allowing 24 points or less. Granted the competition in the Sun Belt isn't what it is in other conferences, but this team can play some great defense when called upon and were actually 1-5 O/U to finish the year.

They'll definitely be ready for this Middle Tennessee attack that's probably cooled off a bit during these few weeks off, and with a 12-31-1 O/U run as a program in their last 44 non-conference games, I just don't get all the love for the 'over' here.

Middle Tennessee doesn’t exactly face elite competition Conference USA either, but the fact that they are 0-4-1 O/U in their last five against teams with a winning record suggests that offense doesn't always show up against decent competition. And although the offense got much of the praise down the stretch, this is still a team that went 2-9-1 O/U this season and were only lined with a total higher than 60 points once.

Yes, the two 'overs' occurred in their final three games, but the perception of them being a high-scoring team that loves shootouts just simply doesn't equate with the reality of this program right now. So while everyone believes this will be a back-and-forth affair, I've got no quarrels about siding with the books on this 'under' because if these betting percentages hold, oddsmakers will definitely be looking for some defense to be played.

[StarDust Bum]

College Bowl Pick'em
December 13, 2017

The 2017-18 bowl lineup is out with 39 games to watch over the next few weeks leading to the National Championship game in Atlanta on Monday January 8. Alabama is the favorite to win it all as the Crimson Tide face Clemson in one of two college football playoff games on New Year’s Day.

During the holiday season, bettors have the opportunity to earn extra cash with "College Bowl Pick ‘em" contests where all you have to do is pick the winner, which isn’t as easy as it looks.

The most popular contest has you picking the winner of all 39 Bowl games and ranking them with confidence, starting with 39 as the most confident pick and counting all the way down to 1 as least confident.

It may be the easy way out, but backing the biggest favorite is my choice for the 39-pointer with Florida Atlantic. The Owls finished at 10-3 and won the Conference USA title in Lane Kiffin's first season as head coach. FAU is listed as 22.5-point favorites against a 7-6 Akron squad that lost in the MAC championship to Toledo. FAU faces Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl, making this is a virtual home game for the Owls.

Ohio State fell short of the college football playoff in spite of winning the Big 10 title, as the Buckeyes were relegated to the Cotton Bowl. The Buckeyes will face USC as 7.5-point favorites on December 29 in Arlington, Texas, as the Trojans finished the season with five consecutive victories. Ohio State will look to rebound after getting blanked by Clemson in last season's college football playoff as we'll back the Buckeyes as the second-most confident pick.

The team that USC beat in the Pac-12 championship is not in a profitable spot in their bowl game. Stanford faces TCU in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio as each of the first six losers of the Pac-12 championship game have gone on to lose their bowl game. TCU is ranked at #34 on the confidence list, while the highest team listed as an underdog is Northern Illinois (26), who squares off with Duke in the Quick Lane Bowl.

Below are all 39 bowls ranked from 39-1. Happy Bowl Season!

2017-18 COLLEGE BOWL PICK 'EM STRAIGHT UP

Point Value Bowl Game Matchup Prediction

39 Boca Raton Bowl Akron vs. Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic

38 Cotton Bowl USC vs. Ohio State Ohio State

37 Heart of Dallas Bowl Utah vs. West Virginia Utah

36 Dollar General Bowl Appalachian State vs. Toledo Toledo

35 Armed Forces Bowl Army vs. San Diego State San Diego State

34 Alamo Bowl Stanford vs. TCU TCU

33 Hawaii Bowl Houston vs. Fresno State Houston

32 New Orleans Bowl North Texas vs. Troy Troy

31 Independence Bowl Southern Miss vs. Florida State Florida State

30 Music City Bowl Kentucky vs. Northwestern Northwestern

29 Military Bowl Virginia vs. Navy Navy

28 Peach Bowl UCF vs. Auburn Auburn

27 Famous Idaho Bowl Central Michigan vs. Wyoming Central Michigan

26 Quick Lane Bowl Northern Illinois vs. Duke Northern Illinois

25 Gasparilla Bowl Temple vs. FIU Temple

24 Pinstripe Bowl Boston College vs. Iowa Boston College

23 Texas Bowl Missouri vs. Texas Missouri

22 New Mexico Bowl Marshall vs. Colorado State Marshall

21 Orange Bowl Wisconsin vs. Miami (FL) Miami (FL)

20 Camping World Bowl Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State Oklahoma State

19 Birmingham Bowl Texas Tech vs. USF Texas Tech

18 Camellia Bowl Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State Arkansas State

17 Taxslayer Bowl Louisville vs. Mississippi State Louisville

16 Foster Farms Bowl Purdue vs. Arizona Purdue

15 Liberty Bowl Iowa vs. Memphis Memphis

14 Las Vegas Bowl Oregon vs. Boise State Oregon

13 Sugar Bowl Alabama vs. Clemson Alabama

12 Cactus Bowl Kansas State vs. UCLA Kansas State

11 Cure Bowl Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky Georgia State

10 Holiday Bowl Michigan State vs. Washington State Washington State

9 Frisco Bowl Louisiana Tech vs. SMU Louisiana Tech

8 Fiesta Bowl Washington vs. Penn State Washington

7 Belk Bowl Texas A&M vs. Wake Forest Texas A&M

6 Citrus Bowl LSU vs. Notre Dame LSU

5 Sun Bowl N.C. State vs. Arizona State Arizona State

4 Arizona Bowl Utah State vs. New Mexico State New Mexico State

3 Outback Bowl South Carolina vs. Michigan South Carolina

2 Rose Bowl Georgia vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma

1 Bahamas Bowl UAB vs. Ohio UAB

[StarDust Bum]

Troy seeks 11th win vs North Texas
December 15, 2017

New Orleans Bowl: North Texas (9-4) vs. Troy (10-2), 1 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Troy by 6 1/2.

Series Record: Troy leads 8-2.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

Troy, which won the Sun Belt Conference, seeks an 11-victory season for the first time since the Trojans moved from the Football Championship Subdivision (formerly I-AA) to the Football Bowl Subdivision in 2001. Tory also seeks its fourth victory in seven bowl appearances. North Texas seeks its third victory in nine bowl appearances, as well as its second New Orleans Bowl crown.

KEY MATCHUP

UNT QB Mason Fine, who set school records with 3,749 yards and 28 TDs passing, against a play-making Troy defense that racked up 36 sacks and 15 interceptions this season, while allowing fewer than 20 points per game.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

North Texas: Listed at 5-foot-10, 180 pounds, Fine is defying critics who've held his relatively small stature against him. In only his sophomore season, Fine broke a single-season school passing record that stood since 1994 and was named Conference USA offensive player of the year. He is on pace to finish the season with more than 4,000 yards passing.

Troy: Troy DB and KR Marcus Jones was named Sun Belt freshman of the year after returning three kickoffs and an interception for touchdowns.

FACTS & FIGURES

North Texas appeared in the first four New Orleans Bowls from 2001-2004, but won only one of those games, defeating Cincinnati in 2002. ... The Mean Green is in its second straight bowl game, having lost Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl last season. ... North Texas set records this season for points with 467 (35.9 points per game) and total yards with 6,071 (467 per game). ... North Texas scored 30-plus points nine times this season. ... Troy has won 20 games during the past two seasons, a school best for a two-season span. ... Troy's Neal Brown was named Sun Belt Conference coach of the year. ... Troy's defense has not allowed a single play as long as 50 yards this season. ...... QB Brandon Silvers ranks second in Trojans history with 10,379 yards passing and third with 67 TDs. ... RB Jordan Chunn could make Sun Belt history with two more touchdowns, which would give him a conference record 49 in his career. This season, he has scored 10 TDs and averaged about 5 yards per carry.

[StarDust Bum]

WKU, Georgia State chase win mark
December 15, 2017

Cure Bowl: Georgia State (6-5) vs. Western Kentucky (6-6), Dec. 16, 2:30 p.m. Eastern (CBSSN)

Line: Western Kentucky by 6 1/2.

Series Record: Western Kentucky leads 1-0.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

Western Kentucky seeks to win bowl games in four consecutive seasons for the first time. Hilltoppers are one of eight FBS teams - along with Clemson, Georgia, Louisiana Tech, Stanford, Utah, Virginia Tech and Wisconsin - with wins each of the past three seasons. Georgia State is in the Cure Bowl for the second time in three seasons, aiming for the first postseason win the Panthers' eight-year history.

KEY MATCHUP

Hilltoppers QB Mike White and WKU's potent passing attack against a Panthers defense that's allowed 391 yards per game - 242 passing and 149 rushing. White has thrown for 300-plus yards in seven consecutive games and ranks third nationally passing efficiency and yards per completion.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Georgia State: WR Penny Hart led the Sun Belt Conference in receiving with 73 catches for 1,094 yards and eight touchdowns. The 5-foot-8 sophomore has 152 receptions for 2,254 yards and 17 TDs in just 26 career games. QB Conner Manning is a transfer from Utah, who's thrown for 5,554 yards and 29 TDs in 21 games for the Panthers. He's completed 63.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 13 TDs vs. seven interceptions this year.

Western Kentucky: White has thrown for 3,826 yards, 24 TDs and seven interceptions. The Hilltoppers have five players - WRs Nacarius Fant (67), Cameron Echols-Luper (42), Lucky Jackson (37) and Quin Jernighan (34), plus TE Deon Yelder (47) - with at least 34 catches. RB D'Andre Ferby is the team's leading rusher with 362 yards and three TDs.

FACTS & FIGURES

Second meeting all-time. Hilltoppers won 44-28 in 2013, Georgia State's first year in the Sun Belt and Western Kentucky's last in the league before departing for Conference USA. ... Panthers lost 27-16 to San Jose State in the 2015 Cure Bowl. ... Western Kentucky, finishing its first season under coach Mike Sanford, won the Bahamas, Miami Beach and Boca Raton bowls the past three years. ... Five of Georgia State's six victories have come on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

Boise looks to spoil Cristobal's debut

Las Vegas Bowl: No. 25 Boise State (10-3) at Oregon (7-5), Dec. 16, 3:30 p.m. Eastern (ABC)

Line: Oregon by 7.

Series Record: Boise State leads 2-0.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

The Broncos will try to end a three-game losing streak against Power 5 opposition. Mario Cristobal leads the Ducks in his first game since being promoted to head coach on Dec. 8 after Willie Taggart took the Florida State job.

KEY MATCHUP

Oregon QB Justin Herbert vs. Boise State's pass defense. Oregon averaged 52.1 points in the seven games Herbert started this season, but only scored a total of 75 points in five games when the sophomore was out with a broken collarbone. Herbert, who has thrown 32 touchdown passes against seven interceptions in two seasons as a starter, faces a Boise State secondary that allowed 172 yards passing and no touchdowns through the air in the Mountain West championship game against Fresno State.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Boise State: WR Cedrick Wilson averaged 17.7 yards per catch, best among Mountain West receivers with at least 35 receptions, on the way to finishing with 1,290 yards receiving. Making the most of his two seasons with the Broncos after transferring from a junior college, Wilson has 17 career touchdowns receptions and has topped the 100-yard receiving mark 10 times.

Oregon: LB Troy Dye has 103 tackles in his sophomore season, 48 more than the next closest Oregon defender, middle linebacker Jimmie Swain. Dye's 13.5 tackles for loss are tied for fourth in the Pac-12.

FACTS & FIGURES

Boise State's last 19 senior classes have won at least one conference championship during their college careers, with 11 winning three or more. . The Broncos are 3-1 against Pac-12 teams in bowl games, including a 2-0 record in the Las Vegas Bowl with wins over Arizona State in 2011 and Washington in 2012. ... Making their first postseason visit to Sin City since 2012, Boise State is 3-0 all-time in the Las Vegas Bowl. ... Broncos cornerback Avery Williams averaged 12 yards per punt return to lead the Mountain West, scoring two touchdowns. . Cristobal is 1-1 as a head coach in bowl games, leading Florida International to a win in the 2010 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl and dropping the 2011 Beef O'Brady's Bowl. ... Oregon threw for a total of 352 yards in the five games Herbert missed while injured. . Oregon LT Tyrell Crosby has not allowed a sack or quarterback hit this season.