NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Sat., Dec. 16 - Mon., Jan. 8)

[Udog]

College Football National Championship biggest betting mismatches

Will experience be an advantage for Nick Saban, Jalen Hurts and the rest of the Alabama Crimson Tide when they face the Georgia Bulldogs on Monday in the national championship game?

The final game of the college football season happens on Monday night in Atlanta when the SEC champions Georgia Bulldogs take on the 4-point favored Alabama Crimson Tide.

We break it down to see where the weak spots are in each team’s game that could be exposed in the title game. Here are the biggest mismatches to consider in the game before placing your final wager.

Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts vs. an SEC defense

There’s no question the Crimson Tide were more conservative with their attack without Lane Kiffin looking after the offensive play calling. Alabama ran the ball 63.3 percent of the time under new OC Brian Daboll compared to 59 percent last year with Kiffin calling the shots.

Hurts cut his interceptions down drastically in his sophomore season, but not without a cost. He had 136 fewer pass attempts and 720 fewer passing yards in 2017 than in 2016. His numbers this year are pretty respectable but they were inflated a bit against the weaker sisters on Alabama schedule. He completed 70.2 percent of his passes against non-conference foes and just 56.8 percent against SEC opponents.

Georgia gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the country and the fourth fewest passing first downs per game.

Alabama’s experience vs. Georgia’s greenness

The Crimson Tide are making their third straight trip to the national title game whereas Georgia entered this season off an 8-5 campaign in 2016. Alabama returns 11 starters from last year’s squad that lost to Clemson in the national championship game – including its quarterback and top receiver and leading rusher from a year ago.

Georgia will send out a freshman quarterback who had originally committed to Alabama before changing his mind and deciding on the Bulldogs instead.

Nick Saban vs. Kirby Smart

It’s been talked about at great length in the build up to this game but it requires an additional reminder: Nick Saban crushes his former assistant coaches. Just like former New England Patriots assistants struggle against Bill Belichick, Saban schools his former protégés.

Saban is 11-0 straight up and 9-2 against the spread with an average point differential of 28.7 in games against his former assistants. Kirby Smart was Saban’s defensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008 to 2015 before becoming Georgia’s head coach in 2016.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 8

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College Football Playoff National Championship betting preview and odds: Alabama vs Georgia
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs (+4, 45)

Game to be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia

An SEC team will claim the national title for the ninth time in the past 12 seasons as conference mates Georgia and Alabama meet in Monday's College Football Playoff championship at Atlanta. The third-seeded Bulldogs are looking to win their first national title since the Herschel Walker-led squad won the 1980 crown, while the fourth-seeded Crimson Tide are striving for their fifth during Nick Saban's 11-season tenure. Alabama easily dispatched top-seeded Clemson 24-6 in the semifinals while Georgia outlasted second-seeded Oklahoma 54-48 in double overtime.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart is a former Alabama defensive coordinator under Saban but is adamant that doesn't give him crucial insights to the methods of the Crimson Tide. "There's not a lot of tendencies that he has that are just going to be ground-breaking to allow us a benefit," Smart said during a press conference. "The bottom line is our players got to go out and we've got to play a really good football game to stay with these guys." Saban also downplayed the situation, saying "I don't think the game is about the coaches. I think it's about the players."

Alabama leads the nation in rushing defense at 91.8 yards per game and will receive a big test from the Georgia senior duo of Nick Chubb (1,320 yards) and Sony Michel (1,129). The Crimson Tide limited Clemson to 64 yards on 33 attempts while the Bulldogs rolled up 317 and five rushing scores against Oklahoma. Georgia freshman quarterback Jake Fromm could be the wild-card factor if he starts the game off strong and makes Alabama respect the passing game.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Bulldogs opened as 4.5-point dogs and money coming in on the SEC champs has seen that line drop a full point to +3.5 at some books. The total hit the betting board at 47 and that has been bet down to 45.

INJURY REPORT:

Alabama - DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Probable, Kidney), RB Joshua Jacobs (Questionable, Hamstring), OL Brandon Kennedy (Questionable, Ankle), DL Labryan Ray (Questionable, Foot), DB Nigel Knott (Questionable, Undisclosed), DB Hootie Jones (Questionable, Knee), OL Lester Cotton Sr. (Out, Knee), LB Anfernee Jennings (Out, Knee), LB Dylan Moses (Out Indefinitely, Foot), LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (Out For Season, Knee).

Georgia - LB Natrez Patrick (Questionable, Personal), DB Deangelo Gibbs (Questionable, Undisclosed), DB Latavious Brini (Questionable, Disciplinary), TE Charlie Woerner (Doubtful, Ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

ABOUT ALABAMA (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS, 5-8 O/U): The Crimson Tide have been hit hard with linebacker injuries all season and they lost sophomore Anfernee Jennings (knee) against Clemson and he underwent surgery. Alabama will do some further linebacker reshuffling with senior Shaun Dion Hamilton (knee) and freshman Dylan Moses (foot) done for the season but the unit still resolves around junior strong safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (nine career interceptions, four returned for touchdowns). Sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts (808 rushing yards, 2,060 passing yards) is more feared as a runner but has 17 touchdown passes against just once interception as well as a star target in junior Calvin Ridley (59 receptions, 935 yards).

ABOUT GEORGIA (13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Michel, who averages eight yards per carry, galloped for a 27-yard, game-winning score against Oklahoma for his 16th rushing touchdown of the season, while Chubb has 15 rushing scores and a 6.4 yard average. Fromm has passed for 2,383 yards and 23 touchdowns against only five interceptions while piloting an offense that averages 36.3 points per game. Junior inside linebacker Roquan Smith, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, leads the Bulldogs with 124 tackles and 5.5 sacks (the latter tied for team-leading honors with junior outside linebacker D'Andre Walker), while senior strong safety Dominick Sanders has a team-best four interceptions.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the chalk Crimson Tide at a rate of 51 percent and the Over is getting 65 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

Six alternative ways to wager - and win - on the CFP National Championship
Jason Logan

Since the long-overdue creation of the College Football Playoff three years ago, sportsbooks have seen a major uptick in the amount of betting action on the National Championship Game.

The fact that there’s a lead-up to the title game, with the teams having to win out in a New Year’s Day semifinal, and with the championship given a week to breathe away from the other big-name bowl games, football bettors have flocked to the window to bet the biggest NCAAF game of the year.

And sportsbooks online and in Nevada, like any smart business, have met that growing demand with a slew of different ways to wager on the CFP Championship Game. Here is but a taste of the CFP Championship prop action and the best way to wager on these alternative odds:

First team to score: Alabama -140 / Georgia +EVEN

A quick run through of these teams’ season histories, and you see that Alabama has scored first in 10 of its 13 games while Georgia has struck first blood in nine of its 13 outings, but has played from behind in its last two contests – the SEC Championship versus Auburn and the Rose Bowl versus Oklahoma.

Perhaps the big question behind this prop should be which team will receive the football first. The Bulldogs started with the football first in the Rose Bowl and Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban has leaned toward deferring receiving until the second half the past couple seasons, putting confidence in his top-ranked defense to get the ball back and give Alabama better field position.

The Tide started with the football in both of the last two CFP Championship Games versus Clemson, however, the Tigers won both coin tosses and deferred to receive in the second half.

At EVEN money, UGA is worth a wager to score first Monday night.

Highest-scoring quarter: First +280 / Second +175 / Third +350 / Fourth +260

If you want to do the math behind this one, you can break down both Alabama and Georgia by their quarter-by-quarter performances this season.

The Crimson Tide had little trouble finding the end zone regardless of which quarter was on the scoreboard, but they did peak in the first quarter, averaging 10.9 points in the opening 15 minutes. Behind that pace, Alabama put up 10.7 points per third quarter, 8.7 points in the second, and just 6.2 in the final frame.

The Bulldogs did most of their damage right after half, averaging 10.2 points per third quarter, ahead of 9.2 in the second, 8.5 in the first, and 7.2 in the fourth quarter. And if you remember the Rose Bowl – and how could you forget it – UGA really got rolling in the third quarter, putting up 14 points and tying the game 31-31.

Defensively, neither SEC school budged much all season, but Alabama has soften up a bit in second halves, giving up an average of 3.7 points in the third and fourth quarter this year. Georgia, on the other hand, only 2.1 third-quarter points against but 4.5 points in the closing frame.

With all that said, the value is there with the third quarter at +350.

First player to score a touchdown

Running backs Damien Harris and Nick Chubb headline these two potent ground games and are the front runners to score the first touchdown of the game at +600. Behind them could be some serious value with this prop, with fellow RBs Bo Scarbrough and Sony Michel priced at +800 as well as mobile Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts at +800.

Since the Tide are -140 favorites to score first, you may want to focus on Alabama players for this particular prop. Digging into the Tide’s scoring history, Hurts has run one in for the first score three times this season as did Scarbrough, who also opened scoring with a touchdown in last year’s title game.

Both of those options at 8/1 are great, but if you’re looking for a big score from this prop, check out tight end Irv Smith Jr. at +3,300. He’s scored the first touchdown in two of Alabama’s games and has reeled in 14 catches – third most on the team – and has three TDs overall.

Jalen Hurts total rushing yards: Over 51.5 (-110) / Under 51.5 (-110)

Hurts’ passing production has gradually slipped as the season wound down, going from throwing for throwing for more than 200 yards per game between Week 8 and Week 12, to putting up just 112 yards through the air versus Auburn and 120 passing yards against Clemson.

Hurts sometimes finds himself as the third-string running back by default and with the Bulldogs not allowing much through the air and pressing quarterbacks for 31 sacks and 60 QB hurries, Bama’s QB could take to the ground as the pocket collapses.

Hurts, who averages 62.15 rushing yards per game, ran for 80 yards in the loss to Auburn and 63 yards in the loss to Clemson in the title game last year. He’ll try to get gains any way he can against this UGA stop unit, and that means plenty of thinking on his feet. Go Over 51.5 rushing yards.

Total receiving yards Javon Wims: Over 54.5 (EVEN) / Under 54.5 (-120)

Wims is coming off a big game in the Rose Bowl, reeling in six balls for 73 yards, and he’s been a bigger part of the Bulldogs attack in the previous four games, totaling 329 yards on 20 receptions.

Now, some of that added production is because UGA fell behind against Oklahoma and Auburn, prompting more passing plays from the Bulldogs, who averaged just under 20 attempts per game from QB Jake Fromm. He tossed 29 passes versus the Sooners and 22 against the Tigers after throwing just a combined 30 times over the previous two games. But with a spread this tight, it may be tough for any team to put space on the scoreboard and force the other to go all-out pass.

Wims averaged 54.1 yards on 3.38 receptions per game – 16 yards per reception - but takes on an Alabama defense that allowed only 5.3 yards per attempt – lowest in the entire country – and gave up only 10 passes for 30 yards and just one for 40 all season. This secondary locked down Clemson standout WR Deon Cain to 75 yards on six catches in the Sugar Bowl and has many options to throw at Wims Monday. Take the Under 54.5.

Live betting

Let’s not pass up the best alternative way to wager on any sporting event – especially ones as big as the National Championship. Strange things can happen in these big-name games – just look at last year’s CFP Championship.

Clemson trailed Alabama 14-0 at 10:42 in the second quarter and that live line would have soared to Tigers +20.5 with the moneyline on Clemson paying out close to 5/1, depending on your sportsbook. Of course, Clemson would storm back and win the title game outright.

We saw another good example of a drastic swing in momentum in the Rose Bowl, with Georgia falling behind 21-7 to Oklahoma in the second quarter. The Bulldogs were available at +11.5 on the in-game spread, and battled back to knock off the Sooners and advance to the CFP Championship.

Look for those anomalies in the action, be it a good team going down early or a high-scoring opening half between two defense-first programs. These weird results usually do correct themselves and offer up great value for fans of live betting.