NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 ( Thur., Nov. 23 - Mon., Nov. 27 )

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 26

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Packers at Steelers
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Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 43.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are holding down the pole position for the top seed in the AFC and will take a five-game winning streak in Sunday's prime-time clash against the visiting Green Bay Packers. While Pittsburgh owns a three-game cushion atop the AFC North, sputtering Green Bay trails three teams by one game for the NFC's final playoff slot.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is coming off his best game of the season in a 40-17 rout of Tennessee on Nov. 16, helping to quiet talk that he doesn't care about the game as much. “I’m going to go out here and bust my butt every day and be limping with bruises and put my body and my family through this and not care?" Roethlisberger asked on his weekly radio show. "You’re absolutely nuts.” While Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh have turned things around since a humbling home loss to Jacksonville in Week 5, Green Bay has dropped four of five since Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone and was shut out at home for the first time since 2006 in last week's 23-0 drubbing by Baltimore. "We're not in panic mode, everything is still in front of us," Packers receiver Davante Adams said after the loss. "We've got to get a grip of it real quick here. Otherwise, we will be in panic mode."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (4.5) - Steelers (-4) + home field (-3) = Steelers 11.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 13.5-point home chalk and is up slightly to -14. The total hit the betting board at 41.5 and money coming in on the over has pushed that number up to 43.

WHAT SHARPS SAY:
 'It’s amazing what the absence of QB Aaron Rogers means to the Green Bay Packers. With Rodgers in the lineup the Steelers were installed as 3-point favorites by Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas before the season began. Without him in the lineup since his broken collarbone Packers are 1-4 SU and ATS, Hence, that is why Green Bay is a 14-point underdog tonight the largest dog they have been since a playoff game at Dallas in 1994 when they took 14.5 points in a 27-17 loss to the Cowboys. ' Marc Lawrence

WEATHER REPORT:

35 degrees at game time with 8-9 mph winds and no chance of precipitation.


INJURY REPORT:

Packers - S Morgan Burnett (Probable, Groin), C Corey Linsley (Questionable, Back), RB Devante Mays (Questionable, Ankle), G Lucas Patrick (Questionable, Hand), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), LB Nick Perry (Questionable, Foot), CB Kevin King (Questionable, Shoulder), G Justin McCray (Questionable, Knee), RB Ty Montgomery (Doubtful, Ribs), LB Clay Matthews (Doubtful, Groin), DT Kenny Clark (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), LS Brett Goode (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Kyle Murphy (Questionable, Foot), OT Bryan Bulaga (I-R, Knee).

Steelers - LB James Harrison (Probable, Back), S Mike Mitchell (Probable, Ankle), QB Ben Roethlisberger (Probable, Illness), CB Cameron Sutton (Probable, Hamstring), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Ankle), Wr JuJu Smith-Schuster (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Marcus Gilbert (Eligible Week 16, Suspension).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Green Bay rolled up 93 points during a three-game winning streak prior to the injury to Rodgers, but it is averaging 13.4 in the five games since Brett Hundley replaced the two-time MVP. Hundley was intercepted three times by the Ravens and has two scoring passes against seven interceptions while averaging only 156.7 yards passing per game. Adams is Hundley's favorite target with 20 receptions over the past three games, but the running game has been weakened by injuries to Ty Montgomery and Aaron Jones, who both did not practice Wednesday. Green Bay's defense limited Baltimore to 219 yards of total offense.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS, 2-8 O/U): Since he was picked off five times in the 30-9 loss to Jacksonville, Roethlisberger has guided Pittsburgh to five straight wins by throwing for 1,328 yards with 10 TDs and a 102.7 passer rating. Wideout Antonio Brown leads the league in catches (70) and receiving yards (1,026) after hauling in 10 receptions and three scoring passes in the romp over Tennessee. Pittsburgh also features the NFL's leading rusher in Le'Veon Bell, who has racked up 886 yards despite being limited to 46 versus the Titans. Pittsburgh is second in the league at 16.5 points allowed and has not permitted more than 17 points during the five-game run.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

* Over is 7-1 in Packers last 8 road games.

* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home faves at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is getting 61 percent of the totals action


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[Udog]

NFL Week 12 continues Sunday with plenty of notable betting action at sportsbooks
Patrick Everson

The NFL rolls into a Week 12 Sunday, with arguably the biggest game of the day taking place out on the West Coast. Patrick Everson checks in on the action for a handful of today’s matchups, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams – Open: -2.5; Move: -2

Two weeks into the season, New Orleans looked as if it would be in for another disappointing year, with double-digit losses at Minnesota and at home to New England. But the Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) haven’t lost on the field since then and have dropped only one game for pointspread bettors. Drew Brees and Co. rallied from a 31-16 fourth-quarter deficit last week to edge Washington 34-31 in overtime as a 9.5-point home favorite.

Los Angeles was on a surprisingly good run until last week, when its four-game SU and ATS winning streak ended. The Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) couldn’t get it going at Minnesota, losing 24-7 as a 1-point underdog.

That lackluster Rams effort seems to be on the front of bettors’ minds, particularly the pros, for this 4:25 p.m. ET clash.

“Seven times more Saints money on account, and it’s even over the counter,” Bernanke said of activity at CG books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “Sharps on the Saints, and the public is split.”

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets – Open: +4; Move: +4.5; Move: +5.5

Carolina has won and cashed three straight weeks to inject itself into the NFC playoff race. The Panthers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) had their bye last week, after crushing Miami 45-21 laying 8 points at home in Week 10.

New York, also coming off a bye, is 1-4 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in its last five outings. The Jets (4-6 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) lost an offensive slog two weeks ago at Tampa Bay, 15-10 as a 1-point ‘dog.

“Carolina got good news regarding Greg Olsen, who has been upgraded to probable,” Jerome said, noting the tight end should be back from a foot injury. “Olsen has been Cam Newton's most reliable receiver, so I can see why sharps like the Panthers in this spot. This will be one of the three biggest decisions for the shop, likely after Seattle and Philly.”

Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Open: -17; Move: -16.5

New England looks very much like a team intent on defending its Super Bowl title. The Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won six in a row (5-1 ATS), traveling to Mexico City as a 7-point chalk last week and rolling to a 33-7 victory over Oakland.

Miami has dumped four in a row (0-3-1 ATS) and won’t have quarterback Jay Cutler (concussion) for this 1 p.m. ET start. The Dolphins (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) fell to Tampa Bay 30-20 as a 1-point home ‘dog in Week 11.

“Sharps are on the Pats,” Bernanke said. “Ten times more New England money on account, and it’s even over the counter so far.”

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -13.5; Move: -14

Before the season, this game was expected to be a Sunday night showdown between teams rounding into playoff form. Pittsburgh is the only team in that mold now, riding a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) into tonight’s 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Steelers (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) come in with a little extra rest, having won the Week 11 Thursday nighter 40-17 over Tennessee as a 7-point home fave.

Green Bay obviously doesn’t have superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers and has lost four of its last five SU and ATS because of that fact. The Packers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) went off as 2.5-point home ‘dogs against Baltimore last week and laid a goose egg, losing 23-0.

Through Saturday night, pros weren’t too interested in this contest.

“No sharp action, and four times more Steelers money over the counter. The public is on the Steelers,” Bernanke said. “I don’t see any reason why anybody is gonna take the Packers.”

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -11; Move: -13.5

Philadelphia is all alone atop not just the NFC, but the entire NFL, both SU and ATS. The Eagles (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) had a sluggish first half at Dallas last Sunday night, trailing 9-7 at halftime, but blew away the Cowboys in the second half for a 37-9 victory laying 6 points.

Chicago (3-7 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) might not seem a worthy foe today, but has been competitive all season long, with five of its seven losses coming in one-score games. Last week, the Bears were up 10-0 on Detroit and made a game of it all the way, losing 27-24 to push as a 3-point home pup.

“People just can’t bet the Eagles fast enough. All I hear from people is, ‘I’m betting the Eagles this week, I’ve got to get it before it gets to 14,’” Bernanke said, while noting the line went straight from 11 to 13.5 on Monday morning, and it’s been all public play on the Eagles. “Ten times more Philly money over the counter. The public is on Philly. They just feel like they’re gonna name their score.”

Game time is 1 p.m. Eastern.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8

Cleveland is the last team in the NFL without a SU win this season. In Week 11, the Browns (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS) fell to Jacksonville 19-7 as a 7.5-point pup.

Cincinnati (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) ended a 1-3 SU and ATS skid last week by dropping Denver 20-17 as a 2.5-point road ‘dog.

“Sharp bettors are bold, and yet don’t factor in records that much when doing their analysis,” Jerome said. “Such was the case this past Monday afternoon, when a sharp player bet Cleveland +9 in the intrastate clash with Cincy. After that bet, we moved Cincinnati to the current number of -8. The Bengals also have a plethora of defensive injuries.”

Still, after the move to 8, Jerome said the Bengals were drawing the large majority of pointspread tickets and money for this 1 p.m. ET start.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +3; Move: +3.5

Tennessee is in the playoff hunt and looking to keep pace with first-place Jacksonville in the AFC South. The Titans (6-4 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) had a four-game SU win streak heading into Pittsburgh for the Week 11 Thursday nighter, but got drilled 40-17 catching 7 points.

Indianapolis (3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS), without Andrew Luck all season, will at least continue to have Jacoby Brissett under center, as he’s been cleared from concussion protocol for this 1 p.m. ET matchup. The Colts had a bye last week, after playing the Steelers much tougher than Tennessee did in a 20-17 Week 10 loss getting 10.5 points at home.

Jerome said sharp action early in the week took this number from Titans -3 to -3.5, and that a large majority of wagers and money were backing Tennessee.

“While Brissett has been upgraded, Indy has a lot of defensive injuries to be concerned about,” Jerome said. “You have to figure that the Colts will have a short leash with Brissett if he shows signs of the concussion issue, so Scott Tolzien is a big dropoff. That could be another reason sharps are fading the Colts.”

[Udog]

Since week 7 faves are 40-20-6 ATS

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 27

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Texans at Ravens
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Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 38)

Entering the weekend in possession of the final playoff slot in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens will face one of the teams trying to overtake them when they host the Houston Texans on Monday night. Baltimore moved back to the .500 mark last week with a 23-0 win at Green Bay, becoming the first team since 2003 to register three shutouts in a season.

"Defense, obviously, was off the charts," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said after his team forced five turnovers and registered six sacks. "That's about as good as you can play on defense." Baltimore has won nine straight prime-time games -- the longest active streak in the NFL -- and is 11-1 under the lights since Harbaugh took over the coaching reins. Much-maligned Texans quarterback Tom Savage, benched after Week 1 before replacing an injured Deshaun Watson prior to Week 9, earned his first victory of the season in last week's 31-21 win over Arizona. “It’s all about mental toughness out there,” Savage said. "As a quarterback, your team needs you out there to be the leader, so I am going to just go out there and keep slinging it and play confident."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (5) - Ravens (1) + home field (-3) = Ravens -7.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened as low as 6.5-point home chalk and by the end of the week the line was up to -7.5. The total hit the betting board at 38 at most shops and has yet to move off the opening number.

WEATHER REPORT:

42 degrees at kickoff - wind and chance of precipitation are negligible.


INJURY REPORT:

Texans - WR DeAndre Hopkins (Probable, Foot), RB Alfred Blue (Probable, Hamstring), DE Jadeveon Clowney (Questionable, Ankle), LB Dylan Cole (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Julien Davenport (Questionable, Shoulder), G Greg Mancz (Questionable, Knee), WR Chris Thompson (Questionable, Knee), CB Kevin Johnson (Questionable, Concussion), WR Will Fuller V (Out, Ribs), RB D'Onta Foreman (I-R, Achilles).

Ravens - LB C.J. Mosley (Probable, Ankle), RB Terrance West (Probable, Calf), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable, Ankle), G Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable, Shoulder), OT Austin Howard (Questionable, Knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable, Achilles), OT Ronnie Stanley (Questionable, Concussion).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Savage is coming off his best outing of the season, throwing for 230 yards and a pair of scores against Arizona, but he also has committed six turnovers in the past two games. Rookie D'Onta Foreman rushed for a season-high 65 yards and two TDs before suffering a season-ending torn left Achilles last week, but Lamar Miller is a dual threat who has scored three times over the past four games and leads the team with 604 yards on the ground. DeAndre Hopkins is having a strong bounce-back campaign with 62 receptions and an NFL-best nine touchdowns through 10 games. Houston is vulnerable through the air, ranking 26th at 252.8 yards per game allowed.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Baltimore managed only 219 yards of total offense in blanking Green Bay and features the league's worst passing attack with an average of 165.2 yards per game. Quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions (11) than touchdown passes (nine), and the lack of explosiveness is reflected in the fact that running back Javorius Allen and veteran tight end Ben Watson are 1-2 on the team in receptions. Running back Alex Collins went over 100 yards in a 40-0 rout of Miami on Oct. 26 but has been limited to 49 yards or fewer in three of the past four games. The Ravens are yielding 17.1 points per game and have posted a league-high 16 interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.

* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.

* Over is 9-1 in Texans last 10 games following a ATS win.

* Over is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games overall.

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Ravens at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 55 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 12 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Buffalo Bills, +9.5 (568)- W

5) Jacksonville Jaguars+2.5 (609)- W

4) Los Angeles Rams, -2.5 (640)- W

3) Tennessee Titans, -3 (654)- W

2) New Orleans Saints, +2.5 (696)- L

1) Carolina Panthers -4.5 (967)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 32-40


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Bengals 30, Browns 16— Cleveland is first team since ’76-’77 Buccaneers to start 0-11 two years in a row, but Bucs were an expansion team. Bengals have won 7 games in a row vs Cleveland. Browns are 0-11, 2-9 vs spread- they did have eight plays of 20+ yards- they had total of 13 in their previous five games. 5-6 Bengals are only a game out of AFC’s second Wild Card.

Eagles 31, Bears 3— Chicago is paying its two QB’s $36M this year; they didn’t have a first down in the first half, trailing 24-0. Eagles have now won nine games in a row, covered last eight, as they head out on an odd, late-season road swing (Seattle-Rams-Giants). Playing a rookie QB can get a coach fired; Bears had total of 8 first downs, only 140 yards- their longest play: 19 yards.

Patriots 35, Dolphins 17— Patriots have a 3-game lead in AFC East with five games to play; they won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread). Miami lost its last five games (0-3-2 vs spread); they’ve made playoffs twice in last 16 years- last time they won a playoff game was after the ’00 season. Dolphins’ owner Stephen Ross is a Michigan alum; rough week for him all around.

Bills 16, Chiefs 10— Third year in a row, a team that started out 5-0 went 1-5 or worse in its next six games (’15 Falcons/’16 Vikings). KC scored 32.8 pts/game in its 5-0 start; they’ve scored 18 pts/game in the 1-5 skid. Despite that, Chiefs lead an awful AFC West by a game over the surging Chargers. Bills won field position by 13 yards; they’re -7 in turnovers in their losses, +13 in wins.

Falcons 34, Buccaneers 20— Julio Jones caught 15 passes for 253 yards; he caught 54 passes in his first ten games. Atlanta won four of its last five games overall; they’re tied with the Seahawks for 2nd Wild Card in NFC, and they beat the Seahawks. Falcons outgained Tampa 516-373; they had 10 plays of 20+ yards. Average total in last nine games with Tampa Bay is now 55.8.

Panthers 35, Jets 27— Carolina scored TD’s on defense, special teams in this game. If playoffs started today (they don’t), NFC South would get three teams in playoffs, with Panthers being #5 seed. Carolina won/covered its last four games; they’re 5-1 on road, winning by 20-3-3-14-8 points away from home. Jets lost four of last five games; this was first time they trailed at half since Week 2.

Titans 20, Colts 16— Indy had ball up 16-6 with 2:30 left in 3rd quarter, but lost fumble deep in their own territory and imploded from that point on. This was Tennessee’s first win in 10 visits to Lucas Oil Stadium; they swept the Colts this year. Titans are now tied for first with Jaguars in AFC South; they host Jacksonville on New Year’s Eve in the season finale.

Seahawks 24, 49ers 13— Seahawks won their last four road games; they’re tied with Atlanta for last Wild Card spot and play Eagles-Rams-Jaguars the next three weeks. Seattle won last nine games against the 49ers, winning last four visits to Santa Clara, by 16-17-2-11 points. Niners finally put new QB Jimmy Garoppolo in a game- he was 2-2 passing and threw a TD pass- if they want fans to buy tickets for 2018, how about playing him the last five weeks?

Rams 26, Saints 20— Rams threw for 354 yards despite their leading WR Woods being out; of course, it didn’t hurt that the Saints’ top two CB’s were also out.

Here are Rams’ receiving numbers Sunday:
Kupp caught 8 balls for 116 yards
Watkins caught 4 balls for 82 yards
Gurley caught 4 balls for 54 yards
Reynolds caught 4 balls for 37 yards and a TD
Higbee caught 3 balls for 48.

Except for Gurley, none of those guys were on the Rams two years ago; kudos to GM Les Snead, who at this time last year was taking a ton of grief. Now he is the GM of a contending team.

Cardinals 27, Jaguars 24— Blaine Gabbert went 5-22 as Jacksonville’s QB, from 2011-13; he dealt the Jaguars’ playoff hopes a blow here- Phil Dawson cranked a 57-yard FG as time expired to give Arizona the win. Jaguars are at home the next three weeks (Colts-Seattle-Texans); they are tied with Tennessee for first in AFC South. Jaguars visit Nashville in Week 17.

Raiders 21. Broncos 14— There was a brawl in first quarter of this game; Talib/Crabtree both got tossed. Broncos lost their last seven games (0-7 vs spread); they’re 0-5 on road (0-5 vs spread) losing by 10-21-10-28-7 points. Paxton Lynch got hurt, so Denver is back to Siemian at QB. Raiders were only NFL team in 83 years to have zero INTs in their first 10 games- they finally got one in this game.

Steelers 31, Packers 28— Green Bay scored four TD’s, three on plays of 39+ yards, but in the end, the Steelers kicked a 53-yard FG on last play of the game to move to 9-2. Pittsburgh hosts the Patriots in Week 15, with #1 seed in AFC likely at stake. Packers lost five of their last six games, are two games out of Wild Card.

1) College hoop tournament finals—
Wooden Legacy: Washington State 93, San Diego State 86
PK80: Duke 87, Florida 84;
Michigan State 63, North Carolina 45
AdvoCare Tourney: West Virginia 83, Missouri 79

Elsewhere, Texas A&M won 75-59 at USC.

[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Divisional showdown in New Orleans highlights Week 13
Patrick Everson

"We know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don’t be surprised to see this finish at -3."

Week 13 on the NFL docket includes a divisional battle for first place among two teams that finished below .500 last season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a quartet of contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4)

New Orleans went 7-9 SU last year and lost its first two games this season, then made an impressive about-face with eight consecutive victories (7-1 ATS). However, the win streak came to an end Sunday for the Saints (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS), who lost to the Los Angeles Rams 26-20 as a 2.5-point road underdog.

Carolina, which reached the Super Bowl two seasons ago before a dismal 6-10 SU campaign last year, has won and cashed each of its last four. The Panthers (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) were 5.5-point chalk at the New York Jets on Sunday and covered when a late field goal finished off a 35-27 victory.

“It’s tough to trust either of these teams, in my opinion, but they are both quality clubs,” Cooley said. “Obviously a ton on the line, given the division climate, and we know that the public will look to back New Orleans, so we wanted to be a step higher on that side. Don’t be surprised to see this finish at -3.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

Without question, Philadelphia is the class of the NFC and perhaps even the whole league. The Eagles (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) have won nine in a row on the field and eight straight against the oddsmakers, including Sunday’s 31-3 rout of Chicago as a 14-point favorite.

Seattle (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) is always a playoff threat, but with its depleted defense – no Richard Sherman or Kam Chancellor, among others – and a surprising Rams squad in the NFC West, things won’t get any easier. The Seahawks weathered the injuries Sunday to notch a 24-13 victory at San Francisco laying 7 points.

“This is the first time Seattle has opened as a ‘dog in a long time, but it’s certainly warranted here,” Cooley said. “Philadelphia is playing like the second-best team in the league, and the Eagles are not far behind the Patriots in our power ratings. Early action indicates this will get past the key number sooner than later.”

And indeed it did, as Philly moved to -4 for this Sunday night prime-time showdown.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

The loser of this Thursday night meeting can probably start thinking hard about next season. Dallas has lost its last three games, all without suspended star running back Ezekiel Elliott, who still must sit out three more games. The Cowboys (5-6 SU and ATS) got dumped by the Los Angeles Chargers 28-6 as a 1-point home pup on Thanksgiving Day.

Washington, also 5-6 SU and ATS, played the Turkey Day Thursday nighter and came away with a 20-10 win over the New York Giants giving 7 points at home.

“Despite an early move to -1.5, I’m sure we’ll see some sharp money on Washington at some point,” Cooley said. “The Cowboys have had their backs against the wall for two weeks, and they’ve come out flat each time. I’d be hard-pressed to bet on this Dallas squad right now.”

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Minnesota has been far more stout than expected this season, with third-string quarterback Case Keenum proving quite capable, complemented by a solid defense. The Vikings (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) are on a seven-game winning streak, besting Detroit 30-23 on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point road chalk to cover for the sixth straight week.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta continues to look up at Carolina and New Orleans just within the South Division. The Falcons (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) have won and cashed three straight, though, topping Tampa Bay 34-20 as a 10.5-point road favorite Sunday.

“My gut feeling is that this will come down a decent bit. Some of the team wanted to see -1 or -2 here, instead of the field goal, but that’s what we settled on,” Cooley said. “The Falcons are certainly no cakewalk for opponents, but it will be interesting to see how they handle that vaunted Vikings defense.”