Announcement

**Udog** · 11-20-2017, 10:54 AM

NFL opening line report: Patriots open Week 12 as biggest betting favorites of the season
Patrick Everson

“It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving Day games, although only one of those matchups appears to be worth pulling you away from the kitchen or the dining room table. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for that contest and three others this week, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (pick)

Minnesota continues to get it done on the field and at the betting window, winning six in a row while cashing in the last five. The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) pulled away from the Los Angeles Rams in the second half Sunday, nabbing a 24-7 victory as a 1-point home favorite.

Detroit (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) followed a three-game skid with a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), though it was a struggle to get that last one. The Lions went to Chicago as a 3-point chalk and twice trailed by 10, but rallied for a 27-24 victory.

Bookmaker.eu opened the game pick ‘em, but the Vikings moved to -1.5 late Sunday night for the first game on Turkey Day, a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

“The Lions can’t afford to fall behind here, as they seemingly do week after week,” Cooley said. “Minnesota has proven to be one of the best teams in the NFC, but Detroit is a quality club as well. It feels like the public will be on the chalk, but sharps may side with the home squad. We’ll just wait and see where this one goes.”

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

Two of the NFL’s more surprising teams this season get together, with New Orleans riding a huge hot streak to the top of the NFC South. The Saints (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) lost their first two games, but have ripped off eight in a row since (7-1 ATS). The only game New Orleans didn’t cash in during that stretch came Sunday, a 34-31 home overtime victory against Washington laying 9.5 points.

Los Angeles (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) had its four-game SU and ATS run halted at the hands of another surprise team, Minnesota. The Rams were in a 7-7 tie on the road at halftime, but scored no more in a 24-7 setback as a 1-point underdog.

“I maintain that the Saints aren’t as good as their record indicates, but the public loves to play them each and every week,” Cooley said. “Meanwhile, the Rams’ loss wasn’t as lopsided as the score looked. Everyone will be expecting a shootout here, so we pumped up the total.”

Indeed, Bookmaker opened the total at 53.5.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5)

After a bumpy first few weeks, Pittsburgh looks to be rounding into playoff form, with five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) heading into this Sunday prime-time contest. In last week’s Thursday nighter, the Steelers (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) thumped Tennessee 40-17 laying 7 points at home.

Green Bay is a shell of itself in the absence of Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone). The Packers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four and hit rock-bottom Sunday in a 23-0 home loss to Baltimore as a 2.5-point pup.

“Brett Hundley is proving why Aaron Rodgers is worth so much to a line,” Cooley said. “The current Green Bay club is in the bottom third of the NFL. Pittsburgh is gaining momentum and finally finding its footing, so we wanted to be generous with this number. It’s doubtful we see any Packers money from the public.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17)

Defending Super Bowl champion New England is really dialing it up to 11. The Patriots (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won six straight, cashing the last five, including in Sunday’s 33-8 rout of Oakland as a 7-point fave in Mexico City.

Miami (4-6 SU, 3-5-2 ATS) has dumped four in row in falling below .500. The Dolphins went off as 1-point home ‘dogs to Tampa Bay on Sunday and lost 30-20. Quarterback Jay Cutler left the game with a concussion at the end of the first half, yielding to Matt Moore the rest of the way.

“There’s really no difference in terms of value between Jay Cutler and Matt Moore,” Cooley said. “It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”

The line actually ticked down to 16.5 Sunday evening.

**Udog** · 11-20-2017, 10:55 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

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MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/23/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/23/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-93 ATS (-43.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-46 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 26

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CLEVELAND (0 - 10) at CINCINNATI (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 72-99 ATS (-36.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 5-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 1) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (8 - 2) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (5 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 4) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 6) at ATLANTA (5 - 4) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 82-49 ATS (+28.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 55-28 ATS (+24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (6 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 7) - 11/26/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-52 ATS (-28.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 9) - 11/26/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (8 - 2) at LA RAMS (7 - 3) - 11/26/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 181-228 ATS (-69.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 181-228 ATS (-69.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 129-180 ATS (-69.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 140-180 ATS (-58.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 61-93 ATS (-41.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 66-96 ATS (-39.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (7 - 3) at ARIZONA (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 42-22 ATS (+17.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ARIZONA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 7) at OAKLAND (4 - 6) - 11/26/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-49 ATS (-27.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 75-104 ATS (-39.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 37-77 ATS (-47.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (5 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 2) - 11/26/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 184-131 ATS (+39.9 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 71-42 ATS (+24.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 27

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HOUSTON (4 - 6) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 11/27/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2017, 10:55 AM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 23

MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games

LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

Sunday, November 26

BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 12 games when playing at home against Buffalo

TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 15 games at home

CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

CAROLINA @ NY JETS
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games

CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing Seattle

NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

DENVER @ OAKLAND
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Denver

JACKSONVILLE @ ARIZONA
Jacksonville is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 16 games at home

GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

Monday, November 27

HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Houston

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**Udog** · 11-20-2017, 12:54 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Thanksgiving Day edition
Monty Andrews

The Vikings will look to extend their hot streak on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1.5, 44.5)

Vikings' vaunted run defense vs. Lions' limp ground game

The Detroit Lions playing on Thanksgiving is an NFL tradition - and this year's game carries added significance as the Lions look to keep pace with the first-place Minnesota Vikings in an NFL North showdown. The Lions have won three consecutive games but have yet to slice into Minnesota's two-game lead, as the Vikings have reeled off six wins in a row. They'll look to extend that hot streak further on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

While a surprisingly balanced offense led by quarterback Case Keenum has been a factor in the Vikings' rise to the top of the NFC power rankings - alongside the Philadelphia Eagles, of course - it's that vaunted defense that has played the biggest role. Minnesota has allowed more than 17 points just once during the streak, and held one of the league's most formidable attacks at bay last weekend, using a big fourth quarter to subdue the Los Angeles Rams 24-7.

Minnesota squashed the Rams' running game from the start, limiting Todd Gurley and Co. to 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. That has been the trademark of the Vikings' 2017 resurgence - they rank in the top three league-wide in average rushing yards against (77.7), yards per carry allowed (3.3) and fewest rushing first downs allowed (3.8). It's no wonder that teams run the ball just 37.4 percent of the time against Minnesota, the second-lowest rate in the league.

The Lions are known for being a pass-first team - they throw the ball nearly 62 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. But when they do run the ball, the results have been ... not good. Detroit ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game (80.8), 30th in yards per carry (3.4) and 24th in rushing touchdowns per contest (0.4). Matthew Stafford can't air it out every time - and when Detroit does take to the ground, bettors should expect Minnesota to shut down the run game with emphasis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Chargers' 1-2 sack combo vs. Cowboys' suddenly leaky O-line

It's officially time to panic in Big D, as the Dallas Cowboys enter their annual Thanksgiving foray desperate to improve their suddenly sagging playoff chances. The Cowboys have dropped two in a row and were humiliated at home in their last game, a 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Times have been tough without offensive lineman Tyron Smith, and if he doesn't return this weekend, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might find himself on his back a whole lot.

The last thing a team struggling to protect its quarterback wants to see is a date with the Chargers on the calendar. Los Angeles is in tough to make the postseason - it comes into this one with a disappointing 4-6 mark - but you can't blame the pass rush, which has consistenly been one of the league's best all season long. The Chargers enter Week 12 having compiled 30 sacks to date; only the Jacksonville Jaguars (40) and Pittsburgh Steelers (30) have more.

The catalyst for Los Angeles' QB-chasing prowess: The sensational duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for an incredible 19 sacks between them; Bosa ranks third overall with 10.5 sacks, while Ingram is close behind in seventh (8.5). They're the second-most prolific duo in the league, behind only the Jaguars' tandem of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. An Oct. 1 loss to the Eagles is the only game all season in which neither Bosa nor Ingram recorded a sack.

With two QB hunters as effective as Bosa and Ingram coming to town, you can forgive Prescott for feeling a little antsy. The second-year signal caller has been sacked a whopping 12 times over the past two weeks, as the Cowboys' pass protection has completely faltered in Smith's absence. If he can't go this Thursday, look for Bosa and Ingram to make Prescott run for his life - and in a game that's expected to be close, that could tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)

Giants' big-play D struggles vs. Kirk Cousins' long-pass prowess

The New York Giants have long been eliminated from post-season contention - but they have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks, and would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins' playoff hopes this weekend in an NFC East tussle at FedExField. The Giants shocked the visiting Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 on Sunday, and will look to carry that momentum into conference play, having lost their first seven games to NFC foes. But to do it, they'll need to find a way to contain Kirk Cousins.

The Giants haven't done a lot of things right - and while most of the attention has been focused on the offense, and quarterback Eli Manning in particular, the defense hasn't inspired much confidence, either. New York has been a magnet for big passing plays, allowing quarterbacks an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt - lower than just four other NFL teams. And the Giants rank 28th out of 32 teams in average yards per completed pass against (7.5).

That makes this weekend's showdown with Cousins and the Redskins the perfect test. Cousins has made a career out of throwing the ball downfield, and is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt so far in 2017 - only Tom Brady (8.3), Jared Goff (8.3) and Drew Brees (8.2) have a higher rate. It should come as no surprise, then, that Cousins comes into Week 12 ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (2,796) despite sitting sixth in total attempts (345).

If last week is any indication, the Giants should expect Cousins to be even more vertically inclined than usual. Cousins averaged more than 10 yards per passing attempt in Sunday's stunning overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints, racking up 322 passing yards on 32 throws. And while his 7.98 passing yards per attempt at home ranks slightly below his road mark (8.25), facing a Giants secondary that has been more than generous should bump his home mark above the 8.00 mark for the season.

**Udog** · 11-21-2017, 11:44 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games
Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4)— Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.

Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)— Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.

Giants (2-8) @ Redskins (4-6)— Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games.

Sunday's games
Browns (0-10) @ Bengals (4-6)— Cincy (-3) crushed Browns 31-7 in Cleveland in Week 4; they outgained Browns 350-215, their 6th straight series win. Browns lost last two visits to Cincy, by 31-10/31-17 scores. Cleveland is 2-8 vs spread this season, 0-3 as a road favorite, losing away games by 14-3-16-14 points. In their last five games, Browns are 18-68 on 3rd down. In their last five games, Bengals have run 27 less plays per game than their opponents- they’ve run ball for only 54 yards per game in their last six games. Cincy is 2-2 at home, 1-3 as a home favorite- their two home wins were by total of five points. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season. Over is 3-1 in Browns’ road games, 1-3 in Bengal home games. Cleveland gets WR Gordon back from suspension, which should be a big upgrade.

Bears (3-7) @ Eagles (9-1)— Eagles are on fire, winning last eight games, covering last seven; Philly is 4-1 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-27-10-23-28 points- they+8 in turnovers in their last five games. Chicago lost its last three games, by 8-7-3 points; they’re 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-21-8 points, with an OT win in Baltimore. Philly won two series games, 54-11/29-14; Bears’ last series win was in 2011- they won two of last three visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Over is 5-3 in last eight Eagle games, 3-2 in Chicago’s last five. Philly has 3-game lead in NFC East, so they need to guard against complacency, are going for home field edge in playoffs.

Dolphins (4-6) @ Patriots (8-2)— New England also has 3-game lead in AFC East; they’ve won their last six games (5-1 vs spread), are 2-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-8 points, and losses to Chiefs/Panthers. NE has lost field position battle in only one game, and that was by a yard. Miami lost its last four games, by 40-3-24-10 points; Dolphins are 1-3 as road underdogs this year- they have only two takeaways in last four games (-3), were outscored 108-37 in first half of last six games. Patriots won four of last five games with Miami; teams play again in two weeks. Dolphins lost their last eight visits to Foxboro. Home teams are 4-0-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 5-1 in Patriots’ last six games.

Bills (5-5) @ Chiefs (6-4)— I’m assuming Taylor starts at QB; if Peterman starts, just bet on KC. Buffalo lost its last three games, giving up 101 points the last two weeks; Bills are -9 in turnovers in last three games, after being +14 in first seven. Buffalo is 2-2 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-4-13-30 points, with win in Atlanta. Chiefs lost four of last five games after a 5-0 start, still lead AFC West by couple games. KC is 3-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-10 points, with loss to the Steelers. Chiefs won last three series games, by 10-4-8 points; Bills’ last win here was in 2011. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-6 vs spread; AFC East road dogs are 5-5. Over is 5-3-2 in Chief games; last five Buffalo games also went over.

Buccaneers (4-6) @ Falcons (6-4)— Short week for Falcons after 34-31 win out in Seattle late Monday night. Atlanta won three of last four games, is 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Buffalo/Miami, winning other two by 11-20 points. Fitzpatrick starts at QB again for Bucs, who won last two games after a 5-game skid. Tampa Bay is 1-4 on road (won @ Miami), 1-1-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-5-3-20 points on foreign soil. Bucs are +7 in turnovers their last three games. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games, winning 23-19/31-24 in last two visits here. Average total in last eight series games, 56.0. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Under is 3-1 in Bucs’ last four games, 6-1 in last seven Falcon games.

Panthers (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)— Both teams are off their bye week; Carolina won 27-23/30-20 in its last two post-bye games, Jets lost six of last eight post-bye games. Carolina won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-1 on road, winning by 20-3-3-14 points- their only road loss was in Chicago, when Bear defense scored only two TD’s of the game. Jets lost four of their last five games; they’re last three losses were all by 5 or less points. Gang Green is 3-2 at home, losing to Patriots by 7, Falcons by 5- they’re 5-3-1 as an underdog. Teams split six meetings, with home side winning five of the six. Panthers lost both series meetings here, 48-21/17-6. NFC South non-divisional road favorites are 5-4 vs spread; AFC East underdogs are 7-7-1, 2-2-1 at home.

Titans (6-4) @ Colts (3-7)— Titans (-7) ended 11-game losing skid to Colts with 36-22 home win back in Week 6; Tennessee outgained Colts 473-297, but trailed 13-9 at half. Tennessee lost its last nine visits to Indy- their last win here was in 2007. Titans won four of last five games; they are 2-3 on road, scoring 17 or less points in four of those games- they’re 3-4-1 as favorites, 1-2 on road. Indy lost four of last five games but covered last three; Colts are 2-3 at home- four of those five games were decided by exactly three points. Colts are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen post-bye games. Four of Titans’ last five games went over total; under is 3-1 in Indy’s last four games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season.

Seahawks (6-4) @ 49ers (1-9)— Short week for banged-up Seattle after 34-31 loss Monday night. Seahawks lost two of last three games, both by a FG- they won last three road games, by 6-17-6 points- they’re 2-4-1 as a favorite, 1-0-1 on road. 49ers won their last game before their bye- they are 1-4 at home, 2-3 as a home underdog, with home losses by 20-2-30-10 points. Seattle (-13) edged 49ers 12-9 back in Week 2; they outgained Niners 312-248- neither team averaged 5.0 yds/pass attempt. Seahawks won last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 16-17-2 points. 49ers lost last four post-bye games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five. Under is 4-2 in Seattle’s last six road games; over is 4-2 in 49ers’ last six games.

Saints (8-2) @ Rams (7-3)— New Orleans won its last eight games after an 0-2 start; Saints are 3-1 in true road games, winning last three by 21-9-37 points. NO ran ball for 151+ yards in five of their last six games; they averaged 8+ yards/pass attempt in four of last five games. Rams’ best WR Woods (shoulder) is out for couple of weeks; LA is 2-2 at home this year- they won four of last five games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in games with spread of 4 or less points. Teams split last six meetings; Rams lost 49-21 in Superdome LY. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-3 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 3-2-1. Under is 4-1 in Saints’ road games, 3-1 in Rams’ last four games. Saints have 56 plays of 20+ yards, most in the NFL.

Jaguars (7-3) @ Cardinals (4-6)— Jaguars won last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 4-1 on road, with only loss at Jets- they’re 2-1 as road favorites. In the last six games. Jacksonville outscored foes 66-19 in 2nd half. Arizona lost three of last four games; they’re down to #3 QB Gabbert- their TD’s LW came on drives of 17-15-51 yards, all set up by defense/ST. Cardinals are 2-2 at home; they beat 49ers/Bucs by total of 8 points, lost to Dallas/Seattle. Teams split four series games, going 1-1 in each ballpark. Jags lost 27-14 in their last visit here, in 2013. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-6-1 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 5-10, 2-3 at home. Jaguars’ last four games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Cardinals’ last nine.

Broncos (3-7) @ Raiders (4-6)— Denver fired its OC, Oakland fired its DC, Paxton Lynch gets his 3rd NFL start at QB for Broncos; he was 1-1 as a starter LY, is Denver’s 3rd starting QB in 11 games. Denver’s last win was 16-10 (-3) over Oakland in Week 4, game Derek Carr got hurt in. Broncos lost its last six games (0-6 vs spread); they’re 0-4 on road (0-4 vs spread) losing by 10-21-10-28 points. Oakland lost six of its last eight games; they’re 2-2 at home, with last two decided by a single point. Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 games with Raiders; they won five of last six visits to the Black Hole. Raiders are only NFL team in 83 years to have zero INTs in their first 10 games. Over is 3-1 in last four games for both teams.

Packers (5-5) @ Steelers (8-2)— Green Bay scored 14.3 ppg in Hundley’s four starts, losing three of them, all by 9+ points. Pittsburgh won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); 3-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, with wins by 17-15-23 points and a loss to Jaguars. Green Bay lost four of last five games; they’re 2-2 on road, losing by 11 in Atlanta, 13 in Minnesota- they won in Dallas/Chicago. Steelers won four of last five series games, but loss was in Super Bowl eight years ago. Packers lost their last four visits here- their last win in Pittsburgh was back in 1970. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 4-4. Under is 8-2 in Steeler games this season; over is 6-3 in Packers’ last nine games.

Monday's game
Texans (4-6) @ Ravens (5-5)— Baltimore has five wins, three via shutout; four of their wins are against teams who started QB’s Kizer-Manuel-Hundley-Moore, backup types. Now they face Savage, who fits that same bill. Ravens are 0-3 in games decided by less than 13 points. Baltimore is 2-2 at home, 2-1 as home favorite. Houston lost three of last four games; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 3-3-26 points, 3-1 as road underdogs. Ravens are 7-2 vs Houston; home team won last five meetings. Ravens lost last two meetings here, 43-13/25-13. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-4 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 7-5 vs spread, 4-4 on road. Over is 6-2 in last eight Houston games, 5-1 in last six Baltimore games.

**Udog** · 11-22-2017, 12:07 AM

NFL Thanksgiving Day lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

The Redskins are giving 7.5 points to the Giants on Thanksgiving but this Las Vegas oddsmaker thinks the spread should be closer to Washington -9.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

This game actually opened up at Detroit -1 at some offshore sportsbooks. That was quickly corrected by the betting public to where the Vikings are now 3-point favorites. I made Minnesota a 1.5-point favorite with the understanding that public perception says Minnesota should be favored, but by the end of the week, the home dog will certainly be attracting money.

Minnesota seems almost flawless after a dominating performance in Week 11. This team has been playing very well throughout the season and is currently riding a six-game win streak. The key for the Vikings has been their defense - no doubt – and adding to that, there should be some hype in the Vikings locker room regarding the revenge factor and avenging one of just two losses to date.

Detroit has been winning as well and played a tough defensive-minded Chicago team this past week and still racked up 27 points. My gut tells me the Lions will be hungry for the upset and being the home dog may supersede Minnesota’s revenge factor. The last four Thanksgivings have been beneficial to the Lions, winning four straight, and I suspect that money will follow them as we get closer to kickoff.

I think the value is in taking the Lions with as many points as you can. Don’t be surprised if they are the aggressors in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 48)

This one landed on Dallas as a 3.5- point favorite for a split second and has since seen an avalanche of early money on the Chargers, moving this to a pick’em as of this writing. I personally made this Dallas -3 so I agree with the offshores on this one. This one-sided betting is largely due to the public’s short memory and recall. They obviously remember L.A.’s big win over Buffalo and couple opinion that with Philadelphia cluster bombing of the Cowboys Sunday night.

I’m not impressed with Los Angeles’ road results. The two wins were against now recognized bad teams in Oakland and the N.Y. Giants. And although they did rack up some noteworthy points against Buffalo, we all know that was against a first-time starter who threw five interceptions.

The Cowboys had won three in a row against teams on par with the Chargers before they lost twice in the past two weeks to top-tier teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia. This is a must-win game for Dallas, which needs a big victory on national TV to get in position for a playoff run with six weeks to go. I think the emotions will be with Dallas and with the spread at a pick, there’s good value on the home team.

I see this heading back up on Dallas, so grab the low number while you can early in the week.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44)

After watching Washington play some impressive football at New Orleans, only to fold in the fourth quarter, it made me recheck the Redskins’ poor record. What I found was a reasonable explanation: they have played a brutal schedule where losses have come to the hands of Philadelphia twice, a good early Kansas City team, Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans. The last two losses were very competitive.

After analyzing that information, I made this Washington -9. What helps the value here is the Giants’ win over a nose-diving Chiefs team this past weekend. I think a loss there would have seen the opening spread closer to my own number. The Giants are going nowhere and can’t be expected to be emotionally in this game. It’s basically do-or-die for the Hogs, who can ill afford another loss if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Giants broke through for their second win of the season and it’s improbable that they can win two games in a row let alone that it will be on the road. Seven points is a tough number to overcome, but a glance at the New York offense suggests they can’t muster too many points.

Their recent past has seen a downward trend of offense the past four weeks. They’ve lost three of their past four games and their offense is averaging less than 14 points per contest. The way Washington’s offense has played the past two weeks against respectable teams (scoring 30 and 31 points), I just don’t see where the Giants can keep pace.

Though it’s a big number, the value at this level is on Washington.

**Udog** · 11-22-2017, 01:06 PM

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Thanksgiving Day games

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

The Vikings didn’t look like world beaters when the Lions pushed them out to sea in a 14-7 loss at home in Week 4. But since that setback, Minnesota has won six in a row and covered in five straight games.

The Purple People Eaters are the only team to rank inside the top five in total offense and total defense – and that’s without their preseason first choices at quarterback and running back on the active roster.

The Lions are 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games, but there is one weakness that seems to be getting worse by the week. Detroit gave up 222 yards on the ground to the Bears on Sunday – making it back-to-back outings with opponents rushing for over 200 yards against the club.

The Lions are missing their run-stuffing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The defense allowed just 74.6 rushing yards per game in the five contests with Ngata and 153.8 in the five games without him.

LINE HISTORY: Lots of movement on this line. Many books opened with the Lions giving a point but the spread has moved four points with the Lions now getting 3 points at home. The total is holding at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Vikings.
*The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
*The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC North opponents.
*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five Thanksgiving Day games.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 47.5)

All of NFL Twitter is still chuckling at the Bills' decision to start Nathan Peterman against the Chargers, but there should be some credit being given to the Chargers’ pass defense. Los Angeles owns the league’s eighth best passing D and the club allows only 1.2 passing TDs per game. The Bolts are third in sacks per game and they’ve picked off opposing quarterback seven times in their last two games.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a career-worst, three-pick performance on Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The good news for Dallas backers is that Prescott's blindside should be well protected against the Chargers pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram because All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to make his return from a two-game absence.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites but the Bolts are now 1-point road chalk. There hasn’t been as much movement on the total. Most shops are all dealing 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the last six years on Thanksgiving Day.
*The Chargers 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 45)

The Redskins blew a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead with less than three minutes to play at New Orleans on Sunday. The game turned against Washington backers when their team failed to pick up a first down on a third-and-one play with 2:36 left to go and the Saints without any timeouts remaining. The Redskins would have been able to ice the game had they picked up the first down.

Struggling on third and short isn’t out of character for Washington. The squad ranks 26th in the league when trying to pick up a first down on third and one situations. They average negative .43 yards before contact in those spots according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The Giants are coming off an outright win as double-digit dogs against Kansas City last week. Head coach Ben McAdoo got a lot more creative with his play calling in the game by calling the first fake punt in 13 years for the G-Men according to the New York Post. The Giants also had running back Shane Vereen try a pass on a halfback option and threw defensive tackle Robert Thomas in as a fullback on a goal line play. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Washington as 7.5-point home faves and that’s where it stands now although there are a few shops dealing -7 with a little extra juice. The total is holding steady at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The over is 24-7 in Washington’s last 31 games overall.
*The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games between these two divisional rivals.

**Udog** · 11-23-2017, 12:03 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 107-108
November 23, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
142.010
Detroit
136.535
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Dallas

Game 109-110
November 23, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
136.668
Dallas
132.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 4 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-2); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 111-112
November 23, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.670
Washington
131.653
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+7 1/2); Over

Sunday, November 26

Chicago @ Philadelphia

Game 253-254
November 26, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
134.527
Philadelphia
142.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 14
44
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+14); Under

Miami @ New England

Game 255-256
November 26, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.621
New England
139.853
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 14
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 17
47
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+17); Over

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Game 257-258
November 26, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
120.172
Kansas City
138.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 18
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-9 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Game 259-260
November 26, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
127.492
Atlanta
139.589
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 12
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 9 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-9 1/2); Under

Carolina @ NY Jets

Game 261-262
November 26, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
139.943
NY Jets
126.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 13 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 4 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-4 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Game 263-264
November 26, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
131.332
Indianapolis
124.769
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3); Over

Seattle @ San Francisco

Game 265-266
November 26, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
128.699
San Francisco
129.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+7); Under

New Orleans @ LA Rams

Game 267-268
November 26, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
143,182
LA Rams
142.074
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 2 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+2 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Arizona

Game 269-270
November 26, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
135.827
Arizona
127.511
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8 1/2
31
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 5
38
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-5); Under

Denver @ Oakland

Game 271-272
November 26, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
120.863
Oakland
128.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 7
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-4); Over

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh

Game 273-274
November 26, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
128.425
Pittsburgh
140.803
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 12 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 14 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+14 1/2); Over

Monday, November 27

Houston @ Baltimore

Game 275-276
November 27, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
132,215
Baltimore
137.674
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 5 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 7 1/2
38
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+7 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-23-2017, 12:09 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 23

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Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview and odds: Vikings at Lions
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

The Minnesota Vikings answered last month's low-scoring loss to the Detroit Lions with six straight victories to catapult themselves to the top of the NFC North. The Vikings look to take a strangehold on the division Thanksgiving Day when they visit the Lions, who have won three consecutive contests overall and are 3-0 against division foes this season.

Case Keenum completed a season-low 53.3 percent of his passes in a 14-7 setback to Detroit on Nov. 1, but has averaged 68.0 percent during the team's winning streak - including 71.1 (27 of 38 for 280 yards) in Sunday's 24-7 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. "He's got a horseshoe right now," coach Mike Zimmer said of the 29-year-old Keenum. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has been living a charmed life since signing a five-year, $135 million deal in the summer to become the highest-paid player in the NFL, and the 29-year-old has paid dividends with multiple touchdown passes in three straight games and seven of 10 this season. Stafford, however, was held in check against Minnesota as he threw for just 209 yards without a touchdown pass.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: Lots of movement on this line. Many books opened with the Lions giving a point but the spread has moved four points with the Lions now getting 3 points at home. The total is holding at 44.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (-4) - Lions (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Lions -1.5

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have a quite a bit of exposure on the Vikings at this point. We’re still expecting some Lions money between now and kickoff, and hopefully it will be enough to limit the liability. Definitely don’t see this spread getting past the key number, but right now we have 80 percent of the money on Minnesota." - Scott Cooley, Odds Consultant for BookMaker.eu.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A rematch from last year’s Thanksgiving Day matchup in which Detroit beat Minnesota, 22-16, finds the Vikings with triple revenge on their minds today. Meanwhile the Lions are 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years on Turkey Day. Detroit will need QB Matthew Stafford to step up, though, as he is just 3-9 ATS following consecutive wins when facing a division foe." - Marc Lawrence.

WEATHER REPORT: Indoors.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - CB M. Alexander (day-to-day, ankle), DE E. Griffen (day-to-day, foot), LB E. Lamur (day-to-day, knee), T M. Remmers (day-to-day concussion), G D. Isidora (day-to-day, ankle), S A. Sendejo (day-to-day groin), DE B. Robison (day-to-day, back), CB X. Rhodes (day-to-day, calf).

Lions - LB J. Reeves-Maybin (day-to-day, ankle), CB J. Agnew (day-to-day, knee), DE E. Ansah (day-to-day, back), RB D. Washington (day-to-day, hip), G J. Dahl (questionable, leg).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (8-2, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Adam Thielen has an NFC-best 916 receiving yards while his 16 catches of at least 20 yards has the 27-year-old tied with Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown for the league lead. Thielen has 19 catches for 387 yards in the last three games and found the end zone for the third straight week with a 65-yard touchdown reception against the Rams. Not to be outdone, Latavius Murray scored twice last week while matching his season best with 6.3 yards per carry. The 27-year-old has four touchdowns in his last four games and faces a Detroit defense that allowed 222 yards rushing on Sunday and 423 yards on the ground over the last two weeks.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Detroit's maligned rushing game takes plenty of hits, but Ameer Abdullah has been a positive factor of late with three touchdowns (two rushing, one receiving) in the last three games. The 24-year-old had found the end zone just once in his previous seven games, notably a 3-yard touchdown rush against the Vikings with eight minutes to play in the fourth quarter. Marvin Jones Jr., who had just two catches in that contest, reeled in his team-leading sixth touchdown reception of the season and fourth in his last five outings during Sunday's 27-24 victory over Chicago.

TRENDS:

* The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Vikings.
* The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
* The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC North opponents.
*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five Thanksgiving Day games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving the slight edge to the favorite in this matchup, with 54 percent of wagers backing the Vikings on the road. When it comes to the total, 64 percent of wagers are on the Over.

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**Udog** · 11-23-2017, 12:13 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 23

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Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview and odds: Chargers at Cowboys
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Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 47.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are used to playing on Thanksgiving Day, but Thursday's contest definitely is an oddity for the Los Angeles Chargers. The Cowboys are playing their 50th Thanksgiving contest, but the Chargers will be participating in their first game on the holiday since 1969.

San Diego's Philip Rivers, who is in his 14th NFL season, knew when the schedule was released that Thursday's contest was a first for him. "I think besides a playoff game, I don't think it gets any bigger," Rivers said at a press conference. "Playing on Thanksgiving, I don't know if that's something any of our guys that have been on teams have done. Certainly, I know it's something we haven't done here." Both teams need victories to bolster their playoff hopes, particularly a Cowboys squad that badly misses suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas is four games behind league-leading Philadelphia in the NFC East and was outscored 64-16 while losing to Atlanta and the Eagles in their last two contests.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (0) - Cowboys (+0.5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -2.5

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as four-point home favorites, but after getting destroyed by the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football they were abandoned by bettors and books were flooded with Chargers' money, moving the line all of the way to Chargers -2.5. The total hit betting boards at 47.5 and has yet to make a significant move at most books.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Favorite has gone to dog, and you can’t really argue the movement induced by the sharps. We’ll get a ton of Cowboys money from the public Thursday so our Chargers liability should be offset a bit. Currently, we have 65 percent of the bets on Dallas but 70 percent of the money on L.A." - Scott Cooley, Odds Consultant for BookMaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Chargers - WR Mike Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Hayes Pullard III (Probable, Neck), DE Chris McCain (Probable, Quadricep), T Joe Barksdale (Questionable, Foot), LB James Onwualu (Questionable, Quadricep), WR Travis Benjamin (Questionable, Abdominal), T Russell Okung (Questionable, Knee), C Spencer Pulley (Questionable, Knee), DT Corey Liuget (Questionable, Toe), C Matt Slauson (I-R, Bicep), CB Jason Verrett (I-R, Knee), T Chris Hairston (I-R, Illness), G Forrest Lamp (I-R, Knee), DE Chris Landrum (I-R, Shoulder), LB Charmeachealle Moore (I-R, Undisclosed), TE Asante Cleveland (I-R, Knee).

Cowboys - K Dan Bailey (Probable, Groin), DE Demarcus Lawrence (Probable, Shoulder), S Jeff Heath (Probable, Concussion), T La'el Collins (Questionable, Back), DT Maliek Collins (Questionable, Foot), LB Anthony Hitchens (Questionable, Groin), T Tyron Smith (Questionable, Groin), LB Sean Lee (Mid Dec, Hamstring), RB Ezekiel Elliott (Elig Week 16, Suspension), DE Randy Gregory (Out For Season, Suspension), TE Rico Gathers (Questionable, Concussion), TE Connor Hamlett (Questionable, Calf), DT Brian Price (I-R, Knee), DE Charles Tapper (Elig Week 13, Foot), CB Duke Thomas (I-R, Knee), QB Zac Dysert (I-R, Back).

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-6 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Los Angeles has recovered from an 0-4 start and views the contest as crucial as its deficit in the AFC West is just two games thanks to Kansas City dropping four of its last five games. "We're not way out of the division and not way out of the hunt," Rivers said. "That's exciting and encouraging. It shouldn't be hard to keep us focused on the task at hand. ... Just be fired up that we still have everything in front of us." Receiver Keenan Allen (56 receptions, 755 yards) has recovered well from last season's ACL injury, while star pass rushers Joey Bosa (10.5 sacks) and Melvin Ingram (8.5) pace a defense that is ranked eighth in scoring defense (19.6 points per game).

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Quarterback Dak Prescott has passed for 2,139 yards and 16 touchdowns with seven interceptions, but Dallas has allowed 12 sacks over the last two games while missing left tackle Tryon Smith (groin/back) and now must figure out how to stop Bosa and Ingram. "Each one has a repertoire of moves, they have a really good feel and instinct for the game on top of their athletic ability, and they play hard," Cowboys coach Jason Garrett told reporters regarding the duo. "So individually, they're awfully good, and when you put them together, it makes it that much more difficult to protect." The defense, which is receiving a career year from defensive end Demarcus Lawrence (11.5 sacks), will be missing outside linebacker Sean Lee (hamstring).

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Thursday games.
* Under is 3-0-1 in Chargers last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home Cowboys at a rate of 51 percent and the Over is getting 63 percent of the totals action

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**Udog** · 11-23-2017, 12:16 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 23

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Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview and odds: NY Giants at Washington
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New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)

The Washington Redskins have only four days to pick themselves up after a late collapse and a crushing defeat that dealt a jarring blow to their postseason hopes. Losers of two in a row and four of their last five, Washington faces what basically amounts to a must-win scenario when it hosts the New York Giants on Thanksgiving night.

The Redskins blew a 15-point lead in the final six minutes of an eventual 34-31 overtime loss to New Orleans and dropped to 11th place in the NFC -- two games out of the final playoff slot. “It stings everybody involved with the Washington Redskins, that’s for sure,” coach Jay Gruden said. “We just have to bounce back. We have a short week. It doesn’t get any easier. The Giants are coming to town on Thanksgiving. We have no choice but to keep grinding and keep battling.” New York has been relegated to spoiler since opening the season with five consecutive losses, but it halted a three-game skid with a 12-9 overtime victory over AFC West-leading Kansas City on Sunday. "We’re not complacent. At the end of the day, it’s just one win," Giants running back Orleans Darkwa said. "We want to make sure we can stack these wins together and make the best situation possible for this team.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+6) - Washington (+0.5) + home field (-3) = Washington -8.5

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as seven-point home favorites. Oddsmakers at most books added the hook to -7.5 for about 24 hours, but Giants money dropped the spread back to -7 on Wednesday evening. The total hit betting boards at 41.5 and was bet up three full points to 44.5.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We haven’t taken a ton of smart money on this one, but the bit we have has been on the dog. Spread count favors the Redskins 65-35, but the money is nearly even." - Scott Cooley, Odds Consultant for BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - RB Orleans Darkwa (Probable, Hamstring), LS Zak DeOssie (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Jonathan Casillas (Questionable, Neck), WR Sterling Shepard (Questionable, Migraine), LB Kelvin Sheppard (Questionable, Groin), DE Olivier Vernon (Questionable, Shoulder), LB Calvin Munson (Questionable, Quadricep), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Questionable, Ankle), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Questionable, Knee), DT Damon Harrison (Questionable, Ankle), LB B.J. Goodson (Out, Ankle), G D.J. Fluker (Out, Toe), G Justin Pugh (Out, Back), CB Valentino Blake (Out Indefinitely, Personal), LB J.T. Thomas (Questionable, Groin), LB Keenan Robinson (I-R, Quadricep), LB Nigel Harris (I-R, Ribs), C Weston Richburg (Elig Week 17, Concussion), DE Romeo Okwara (I-R, Knee), WR Brandon Marshall (I-R, Knee), WR Odell Beckham Jr (I-R, Knee), WR Dwayne Harris (I-R, Foot), DT Josh Banks (I-R, Shoulder), LB Mark Herzlich (I-R, Stinger), DE Evan Schwan (I-R, Foot), WR Keeon Johnson (I-R, Foot), DE Ishaq Williams (I-R, Knee).

Washington - LB Zach Brown (Probable, Achilles), RB Samaje Perine (Probable, Finger), WR Brian Quick (Probable, Concussion), CB Quinton Dunbar (Probable, Illness), G Brandon Scherff (Questionable, Knee), T Ty Nsekhe (Questionable, Abdominal), T Morgan Moses (Questionable, Ankle), DL Anthony Lanier II (Questionable, Knee), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Hand), WR Ryan Grant (Questionable, Calf), LB Ryan Anderson (Questionable, Knee), T Trent Williams (Doubtful, Knee), LB Martrell Spaight (Doubtful, Ankle), DL Terrell McClain (Out, Toe), S Montae Nicholson (Out, Concussion), TE Jordan Reed (Out, Hamstring), C Chase Roullier (Out, Hand), C Spencer Long (I-R, Hip Flexor), G Shawn Lauvao (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Thompson (I-R, Leg), WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. (I-R, Ankle), T T.J. Clemmings (I-R, Ankle), LB Will Compton (I-R, Foot), RB Rob Kelley (I-R, Ankle), DL Arthur Jones (I-R, Shoulder), LB Mason Foster (I-R, Shoulder), DL Jonathan Allen (I-R, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip), S Su'a Cravens (I-R, Knee), DL Phil Taylor Sr. (I-R, Quadricep), T Kevin Bowen (I-R, Ankle), LB Trent Murphy (I-R, Knee), RB Keith Marshall (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U): New York put forth a strong defensive effort, limiting Kansas City to three field goals after surrendering a staggering 106 points during its three-game slide. The Giants won despite Eli Manning completing 54.3 percent of his passes and throwing for only 205 yards while failing to toss a touchdown pass for the first time since the season opener. Darkwa rushed for at least 70 yards for the third consecutive week and added a touchdown on 20 carries, but none of the team's receivers had more than three catches on Sunday. Safety Landon Collins led to strong defensive effort by intercepting a pass and recording a career-best 14 tackles.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Washington wasted a superb effort by Kirk Cousins, who threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions against the Saints. Cousins will be without some of his best weapons as Chris Thompson, who leads the team in touchdowns, rushing and receptions, was lost for the season after suffering a broken fibula on Sunday. Wideout Terrelle Pryor was placed on injured reserve, tight end Jordan Reed remains a question mark and the offensive line could be without three starters and the top two centers. Rookie Samaje Perine ran for a season-high 117 yards, but the defense has allowed at least 33 points in the past four losses.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Giants' last 4 Thursday games.
* Over is 14-2 in Washington's last 16 games following a straight up loss.
* Underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorites from Washington at a rate of 66 percent and the Over is getting 59 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 11-24-2017, 09:37 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends for Sunday’s Week 12 games

— Jets covered their last six games as a home underdog.

— Philadelphia won/covered its last seven games.

— Denver is 0-6 vs spread in its last six games.

— Falcons are 5-15 in last 20 games as a home favorite.

— Arizona is 5-15-1 vs spread in its last 21 games.

— Cleveland is 4-16 vs spread in its last 20 games.

**Udog** · 11-26-2017, 09:57 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 12 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Buffalo Bills, +9.5 (568)

5) Jacksonville Jaguars+2.5 (609)

4) Los Angeles Rams, -2.5 (640)

3) Tennessee Titans, -3 (654)

2) New Orleans Saints, +2.5 (696)

1) Carolina Panthers -4.5 (967)

Season record of top 6 picks: 27-39

**Udog** · 11-26-2017, 10:01 AM

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Broncos are trotting out their third different starting quarterback this season with 2016 first round draft pick Paxton Miller slated to start on Sunday against the Oakland Raiders.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (+3.5, 46)

Titans leading receiver Rishard Matthews missed practice on Friday with a sore hamstring and will be a game-time decision on Sunday. Matthews leads the team with 626 receiving yards and three TD catches. He had five catches for 113 yards and a touchdown last week against the Steelers.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 4.5-point road favorites but have been bet down to as low as -3. The total moved as high as two points above the opening number of 44 and seems to be settling at 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games.
*The over is 10-2 in the Titans’ last 12 games against AFC South opponents.
*Indy is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games against Tennessee.

Carolina Panthers at New York Jets (+5.5, 40)

The Panthers welcome back Pro Bowl tight end Greg Olsen who’s been out since Week 2 with a broken bone in his foot. That’s the good news. The bad news is the club’s top two centers (Ryan Kalil and Tyler Larsen) are both listed as questionable to play against the Jets.

Kalil, a former Pro Bowl player, likely won’t play because of a lingering neck injury. Head coach Ron Rivera sounded more optimistic about the chances of Larsen playing.

LINE HISTORY: The books installed Carolina as a 4.5-point road fave against the Jets and the spread has moved up a point to 5.5. The total opened at 39.5 and most shops are dealing 40 or 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games coming off a bye week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 48.5)

The Falcons’ offense didn’t have an extraordinary game last week against the Seahawks. Seattle held them to 284 yards but the Dirty Birds were efficient in the red zone. Defending league MVP Matt Ryan has completed eight of his last 12 pass attempts for 60 yards with five TDs and no picks in the red zone over the last three games.

Star receiver Julio Jones has tortured Tampa Bay over the years. Jones has six career, 100-yard receiving games and eight career touchdown grabs against the Bucs.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 10-point home faves and that’s where we stand heading into the weekend. The total opened at 48 and it’s crept a half point up at a few locations.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against divisional foes.
*The over is 12-3 in the Falcons’ last 15 home games.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-14, 44)

The Eagles became the 44th team since 1985 to win seven straight games against the spread. Only 19 of the previous 43 covered in their next game. This is also the biggest spread the Eagles have seen all season although they did cover against the Niners as 13-point chalk.

LINE HISTORY: Plenty of shops are dealing just below the two touchdown spread as we head into the weekend. The total is jumping between 43.5 and 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records.
*The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 46.5)

The Chiefs signed 32-year-old cornerback Darrelle Revis this week in hopes of improving the league’s 28th-ranked passing defense. Only the Indianapolis Colts give up more yards per completion than the Chiefs at 12.9. Revis is expected to start opposite defensive back Marcus Peters. KC has paired Peters with a number of corners with little success this season.

Revis was a free agent for a good reason. He played poorly last year for the Jets – something the seven-time Pro Bowl chalks up to being in poor shape. Revis is playing weight of 205 during his prime years, but it’s yet to be determined if he has the speed to keep up with young receivers.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Chiefs favored by 9.5-points and we’re now looking at a 10-point spread. The total opened around 45 and many shops are dealing 46.5 as we enter the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The over is 5-0 in the Bills’ last five games.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-16.5, 47.5)

That might seem like a lot of points to give for an NFL game, but don’t forget giving two touchdowns or more on the spread is nothing new for Tom Brady. The Pats are 12-8 ATS when favored by 14 or more points since the 2007 season – and an even better 11-5 ATS when giving 14.5 or more points. One of those ATS loses came in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign when Tom Brady’s was injured early and replaced by Matt Cassel.

Matt Moore will be starting at quarterback for the Dolphins. Miami was blown out 40-0 against Baltimore in the one game Moore started for the club this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 17-point chalk but have come down a half point. The total is holding steady at 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The home team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games between these two sides.
*The over is 5-0 in the Dolphins’ last five games.
*The Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with losing records.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8, 38)

The Bengals offense gains the fewest yards per rush attempt at 3.0 and the Browns defense allows the fewest yards per attempt at 3.1. Expect to see a lot of Andy Dalton passing in this game.

Bengals beat reporter Jay Morrison provided a great stat on Twitter: If the Browns hold the Bengals to 60 or fewer yards Cincy will become the first team since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 to go five games without gaining more than 60 yards on the ground in a contest.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened up with the Bengals giving 9 points but most locations are now dealing Browns +8. There hasn’t been any movement on the total as we head into the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games against divisional opponents.
*The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 13-5 in the Bengals’ last 18 games overall.
*Cincy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against Cleveland.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+6.5, 45.5)

The Seahawks secondary is running out of healthy bodies. Already down All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman, the unit will also be without safety Kam Chancellor and cornerback Shaquill Griffin against the 49ers.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened this spread with the Seahawks giving seven points but the line has come down a half point. The total has moved up three points from 42 to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games.
*The Niners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against NFC West opposition.
*Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games against the Niners.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-4.5, 43)

The Broncos have a new quarterback under center and a new offensive coordinator calling the plays on the sidelines. The team had enough – like the rest of the viewing public – of Brock Osweiler and decided to hand the ball to Paxton Lynch.

Lynch becomes the third different starting quarterback for the Broncos this season after Trevor Siemian won the job from Lynch in training camp. Lynch is the Broncos’ first round pick from the 2016 NFL Draft.

Denver fired former OC Mike McCoy and appointed Bill Musgrave as his replacement. Musgrave was the offensive coordinator in Minnesota during the peak Adrian Peterson years but his services were not retained when Mike Zimmer took over. Musgrave bounced around and eventually landed as Oakland’s OC but was fired in January 2017 after he held the job for two years.

LINE HISTORY: The spread is bounced between 4.5 and 5.5. The total is holding steady at 43 and 43.5.

TRENDS:

*The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The Raiders are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Raiders.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 38)

Future Pro Bowl cornerback Jalen Ramsey says he will not play on Sunday because of a hand injury but the Jags are still listing their best DB as questionable.

Jacksonville’s pass rush should be able to cover for Ramsey’s absence. The Jags have a league- high 40 sacks on the season after taking down Cleveland quarterback DeShone Kizer five times last weekend. Four of those five sacks came with just a four-man pass rush.

LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 4-point favorites and the line now sits at 5.5 at many locations. The total opened at 38 and there are some books now dealing 37.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Jags’ last four games.
*The under is 13-3 in Arizona’s last 16 home games.

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2, 54)

The Saints go into their showdown with the NFC West-leading Rams without their top two cornerbacks. Rookie Marshon Lattimore (ankle) and second-year starter Ken Crawley (abdomen) have both been ruled out for Sunday’s game.

The Rams own the ninth-best passing attack with an average of 255 yards gained in the air per game.

LINE HISTORY: Just about all books opened with the Rams giving 2.5 points but the line dropped a half point in the middle part of the week. The total is hanging between 54 and 53.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
*The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The under is 3-1 in the Rams’ last four games.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14, 43.5)

How much is good quarterback play worth to the pointspread? Consider this: before this week, the Packers had been a 14-point or larger underdog just once since 1994. The Pack were 14-point underdogs against the Patriots in 2010. Coincidentally, Green Bay was missing Aaron Rodgers in that game too.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened with the Steelers favored by 13.5 points and then moved up to 14, although there were a few books that opened 14.5 and went down a half point. Either way, it appears to be settling on a two-touchdown spread. The total has gone up two points from 41.5 to 43.5.

TRENDS:

*Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
*Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 ( Thur., Nov. 23 - Mon., Nov. 27 )

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 ( Thur., Nov. 23 - Mon., Nov. 27 )

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