NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 ( Thur., Nov. 16 - Mon., Nov. 20 )

[Udog]

Armadillo:Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 11 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Denver Broncos -2.5 (583)

5) New Orleans Saints -7.5 (586)

4) Minnesota Vikings -2 (749)

3) Detroit Lions -2.5 (928)

2) New England Patriots -6.5 (1,086)

1) Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (1,306)

Season record of top 6 picks: 23-37

[Udog]

NFL WEATHER WATCH:


The weather will match the quality of football in Cleveland when the Browns play the Jaguars as 7.5-point home dogs. Temperatures will drop to 30 degrees with wind gust of up to 35 mph and a chance of rain/snow mix. Total at 37.5 points.


East Rutherford could get blown away with wind gust up to 40 mph for the Giants’ home stand with the Chiefs. Kansas City is a 10-point favorite on the road while the total is at 45.5 points.

[Udog]

NFL WEATHER WATCH:


Chicago will see some wind – surprise, surprise – with gusts up to 40 mph and temperatures just below freezing. The Bears are 3-point home underdogs to Detroit with total at 41 points.


It's going to be chilly and windy at Lambeau Field, where the Packers host the Ravens as 2-point dogs. Temperatures will feel like they're in the low 20s with wind gusts of up to 40 mph. Total at 38.5 points

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 20

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Falcons at Seahawks
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Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 45.5)

The Seattle Seahawks spent much of the days following their last victory grousing about playing on a short week, but there will be no such complaints when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Seattle will be playing for the first time since losing All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman for the season in a win over Arizona on Nov. 9.

The Seahawks, who are one game behind the first-place Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West, suffered a rash of injuries in their matchup at Arizona -- the most prominent being the ruptured Achilles sustained by Sherman. "It's definitely going to be weird," Seattle linebacker Bobby Wagner said of playing without lock-down corner Sherman. "I've never played a game without Richard. He's definitely going to be missed." Atlanta, which had lost four of five before dominating Dallas last weekend, also is expected to be without a marquee player after running back Devonta Freeman sustained a concussion against the Cowboys. It will be a rematch of last season's NFC Divisional Round playoff matchup, won by the Falcons 36-20 behind three touchdown passes from reigning league MVP Matt Ryan.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-1.5) - Seahawks (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -4.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 3-point home chalk against the defending NFC champions and money coming in on the Falcons has seen that number drop to -1.5. The total hit the board at 45 and is up slightly to 46.

INJURY REPORT:

Falcons - WR Julio Jones (Probable, Ankle), G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Knee), P Matt Bosher (Questionable, Ankle), DT Grady Jarrett (Questionable, Knee), RB Terron Ward, Questionable, Knee), S Quincy Mauger (Questionable, Knee), RB Devonta Freeman (Out, Concussion).

Seahawks - QB Russell Wilson (Probable, Jaw), DE Frank Clark (Probable, Thigh), RB Eddie Lacy (Probable, Groin), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Knee), S Earl Thomas (Probable, Hamstring), DE Michael Bennett (Questionable, Heel), G Luke Joeckel (Questionable, Knee), DE Marcus Smith (Questionable, Concussion), DT Jarran Reed (Questionable, Hamstring), DE Duane Brown (Questionable, Ankle), LB Michael Wilhoite (Questionable, Calf), CB Shaquill Griffin (Questionable, Shoulder), S Kam Chancellor (Out For Season, Neck), RB C.J. Prosise (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (Questionable, Concussion), RB Chris Carson (Questionable Week 14, Knee), CB Richard Sherman (I-R, Achilles).

ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Atlanta is averaging a dozen points fewer than last season's league-leading average of 33.8 and had failed to score more than 17 in its last four losses before posting its highest point total since Week 3. Backup Tevin Coleman, who rushed for a season-high 83 yards after Freeman was injured early last week, ran for 57 yards on 11 carries and had a receiving score in last season's playoff win over Seattle. With Sherman out, expect Ryan to make a concerted effort to get the ball into the hands of star wideout Julio Jones, who has 49 catches but has reached the end zone only once. Defensive end Adrian Clayborn is coming off a monster game with a franchise-record six sacks.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 3-6 O/U): Sherman is not the only member of Seattle's vaunted secondary that could be out -- safety Kam Chancellor suffered neck stingers in the last game and was still being evaluated, although fellow safely Earl Thomas is expected to return after missing two games (hamstring). Running back Eddie Lacy is expected to return after sitting out one week with a groin injury, but the ground game has been ineffective since rookie Chris Carson was lost for the season. Russell Wilson has carried the offense, leading the NFC with 2,543 yards while throwing for 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. Doug Baldwin has a team-high 54 catches while tight end Jimmy Graham has six TDs in the past five games.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

* Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.

* Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 Monday games.

* Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Falcons at a rate of 52 percent and the Over is getting 63 of the totals action.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Saints 34, Redskins 31 OT— Washington led 31-16 with 3:10 left to play, but then gave up two TD’s in 1:48, and screwed up a chance to win game at the end of regulation, getting intentional grounding called on them when they were in Saints territory.

Saints have now won eight games in a row (6-2 vs spread); Redskins were first team since Week 2 to pass for more than 5.0 yds/pass attempt against them (8.2). New Orleans has run ball for 150+ yards in five of their last six games. Over is 5-1 in Washington’s last six games.

Vikings 24, Rams 7— Rams scored on their first drive of the game, never scored again; they lost a fumble on 1-yard line when game was 7-7 in 2nd quarter- they’ve done that in two of their three losses. LA is -6 in turnovers in their three losses, +12 in their wins.

Minnesota has won six games in row, covered last five; they were held to 9-7 points in their two losses. Vikings only went 3/out once in this game, which helped their field position.

Giants 12, Chiefs 9 OT— KC has now lost four of its last five games after a 5-0 start, this one in dismal fashion- they didn’t score a TD against a Giant team that had given up 13 TD’s on its opponents’ last 32 drives. 6-4 Chiefs are still in first place in AFC West, but only because their division stinks this year.

Alex Smith threw three INTs, which led to Giants having an 8-yard advantage in field position; there will now be murmurs about Patrick Mahomes taking over at QB next year, when Smith is a free agent— the rumor mill thinks Kansas City will let Smith walk.

Texans 31, Cardinals 21— Houston’s 2nd-string QB beats Arizona’s 3rd-string QB; Cardinals scored three TD’s, but on drives of 17-15-51 yards, all set up by the Arizona defense. Redbirds lost despite a 13-yard edge in field position, which doesn’t happen much- they’re 1-6 when they allow more than 15 points.

Jaguars 19, Browns 7— Three NFL teams turned ball over five times Sunday; all of them played at home, including the God-awful Browns, who are now 0-10, 2-8 vs spread.

If you were optimistic (dumb) enough to bet on the Browns in this game, you were on the wrong side of the Bad Beat of the Week. Jaguars were sleep-walking their way to a 13-7 win— Cleveland had the ball on its own 20 with 1:24 left, but Kizer was sacked/fumbled and Jacksonville covered the 8-point spread on a defensive TD with 1:14 left.

Jacksonville has won four games in a row and is in first place in the AFC South.

Lions 27, Bears 24— Prater kicked a 52-yard FG with 1:35 left as Detroit won its third game in a row, scoring 31.7 ppg in those games; they’re 3-1 on the road. Having a kicker who makes long FG’s outdoors in November is a huge plus. Lions are 8-1 in their last nine games with Chicago, which had ball up 10-0 in 2nd quarter, before Detroit scored a defensive TD on a fumble return that helped turn the tide in their favor. Bears lost their last three games, are now 3-7.

7) UCLA fired football coach Jim Mora Jr on his birthday Sunday, which was the bad news. Good news for Mora? He gets an $11M severance package. Birthday cake is on him!!!!

Rumor mill has UCLA going heavy after former Eagles/Oregon coach Chip Kelly.

Buccaneers 30, Dolphins 20— Miami is awful; they turned ball over five times, were called for 17 (accepted) penalties for 133 yards- they threw an INT on three of their first four drives.

Down 20-7, Dolphins battled back to tie game 20-all, before Bucs won it on a FG with 0:04 left; Tampa Bay had an 11-yard edge in field position- their two TD drives were only 5-37 yards, as Miami’s turnovers were their undoing. Dolphins have now lost four games in a row.

Ravens 23, Packers 0— You know it could be a long day for a team when a score graphic comes on at 1:25 and that team’s QB already has two INT’s. Baltimore had a ridiculous 27-yard edge in field position in this game- five of their 13 drives started in Green Bay territory.

Packers have lost four of their last five games; Ravens are 13-3 in last 16 post-bye games. Four of Baltimore’s five wins have come against backup QB’s, Andy Dalton being the exception.

Chargers 54, Bills 24— Buffalo benched QB Tyrod Taylor despite a 5-4 record and started rookie Nathan Peterman in this game, who then threw four INT’s on his first nine passes, as Chargers jogged to a ridiculously easy win.

Bills have lost three games in a row; coach McDermott has to be careful he doesn’t lose his locker room, putting in an incompetent rookie QB when Buffalo was 5-4 and in possession of the last playoff spot. Taylor played the second half of this game, figures to start going forward.

Patriots 33, Raiders 8— New England won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they outscored last four opponents 76-16 in first half. Oakland lost six of its last eight games, as AFC West suffers thru one of its worst seasons ever. Raiders have only two takeaways (-9) in their last seven games- they allowed 121 points in their last four games.

In college basketball Sunday, Ohio U beat Indiana State 96-94 in four OT’s; must’ve been a fun game to watch.

Bengals 20, Broncos 17— Denver lost its last six games (0-6 vs spread), thanks to a -14 turnover ratio in those games; they lost last three home games. Cincy ends a 10-game losing streak in the Mile High City, but in their last three games, Bengals have run 140 plays, their opponents 241- the Cincinnati offense needs to give the defense a break now and then.

Cincinnati had a 100-yard INT return in this game that wasn’t a TD— the guy dropped the ball while he was running and fell on it, on the 1-yard line.

I’m guessing its not a lot of fun being around John Elway these days.