Announcement

**Udog** · 11-07-2017, 02:19 PM

NFL opening line report: Early sharp action on Bills as home dogs in Week 10
Patrick Everson

The marquee matchup of Week 10 in the NFL features two teams that should be of playoff caliber, but only one actually playing that way right now. Covers takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (no line)

Defending NFC champion Atlanta won its first three games SU, but hasn’t looked good since then. The Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) are on a 1-4 SU skid, failing to cash in all five of those games. In Week 9, Atlanta had another lackluster offensive effort, unable to score in the middle two quarters of a 20-17 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite.

Dallas has won three in a row SU and ATS to get its season back on track. The Cowboys (5-3 SU and ATS) dispatched Kansas City 28-17 Sunday as a 2.5-point home chalk.

Bookmaker.eu is sitting tight on a line for this game, as the Ezekiel Elliott suspended/not suspended chronicles continue this week.

“It feels like the Cowboys are finally catching their stride offensively, and the defense looked like a different, competent unit against Kansas City,” Cooley said. “That said, we have to wait to see what the next chapter is in the Ezekiel Elliott saga, because he certainly is worth something to the line. If he is ultimately suspended, Dallas will be a short underdog at Atlanta.”

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7)

New England is tied for the best record in the AFC and coming off its bye week. The Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won four straight (3-1 ATS), including a 21-13 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers giving 6.5 points in Week 8.

Denver is a hot mess at quarterback, and even its normally reliable defense struggled in Week 9. The Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) got trampled at Philadelphia, 51-23 as a 7-point underdog.

“Denver is in one of those situations where one side has given up because the other side isn’t performing,” Cooley said. “The offense is a mess, and there doesn’t seem to be a solution in sight. That said, you have to expect one of the Broncos’ best efforts here on Sunday night. This spread will likely head north, but there will be some value players on the home ‘dog with backs against the wall.”

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Minnesota has a third-string quarterback and a first-place record heading into Week 10. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), behind Case Keenum, have won four in a row and five of six, rolling past Cleveland 33-16 as an 11-point favorite in Week 8 before getting a bye this past week.

Washington (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a two-game SU and four-game ATS slide in Week 9. The Redskins got a late touchdown to upset Seattle 17-14 getting 8 points on the road.

“Early sharp action came in on the Redskins, knocking this down to +2 quickly,” Cooley said. “Hats go off to Jay Gruden and his staff for staying competitive amid all of the injuries. It will be interesting to see if that ragtag offensive line can hold up against one of the best defenses in the league.”

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)

New Orleans has to be among the bigger surprises this season. The Saints (6-2 SU and ATS) have won six in a row, covering every time after an 0-2 SU and ATS start. In Week 9, Drew Brees and Co. rolled Tampa Bay 30-10 as a 7-point chalk.

Buffalo (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) went to MetLife Stadium last Thursday night as a 3-point favorite against the New York Jets. But the Bills left with a 34-21 outright loss.

“Everyone is back on the Saints’ wagon with the win streak continuing, but we’re still just not sold on this team being completely turned around from what it’s been in recent years,” Cooley said. “The Buffalo offense will have a new weapon on display, and it feels like this spread should be closer to a pick ‘em. Early smart money was on the Bills.”

That money quickly moved Buffalo to +2.

**Udog** · 11-07-2017, 02:20 PM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 10 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

Game to bet now

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)

Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC at 6-2.

Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colts team with a newbie quarterback and in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.

Game to wait on

Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)

Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury, and the Texans' subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday, has rocked Houston into considering signing Colin Kaepernick - a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and put an end to the QB’s embarrassing suit against the NFL.

The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC.

There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA’s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn’t firmed up yet.

Total to watch

New York Giants at San Francisco (42)

The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team’s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.

**Udog** · 11-07-2017, 02:33 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 9

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SEATTLE (5 - 3) at ARIZONA (4 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 12

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MINNESOTA (6 - 2) at WASHINGTON (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-115 ATS (-42.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 4) at CHICAGO (3 - 5) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 183-130 ATS (+40.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 6) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (3 - 5) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 28-4 ATS (+23.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 6) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-37 ATS (+21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (3 - 5) at TENNESSEE (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (6 - 2) at BUFFALO (5 - 3) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 8) at DETROIT (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 59-84 ATS (-33.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-172 ATS (-58.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 5) at LA RAMS (6 - 2) - 11/12/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 180-227 ATS (-69.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 81-116 ATS (-46.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 139-179 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 60-93 ATS (-42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (5 - 3) at ATLANTA (4 - 4) - 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (1 - 7) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 9) - 11/12/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 36-62 ATS (-32.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 33-57 ATS (-29.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) at DENVER (3 - 5) - 11/12/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 13

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MIAMI (4 - 4) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/13/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-07-2017, 02:39 PM

NFL

Week 10

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 9

SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing at home against Seattle

Sunday, November 12

GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 12 games at home
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

CLEVELAND @ DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games

PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

LA CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE
LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
LA Chargers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games at home

NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
NY Jets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing NY Jets

MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Washington
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

HOUSTON @ LA RAMS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
NY Giants is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against NY Giants

DALLAS @ ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Denver is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against New England

Monday, November 13

MIAMI @ CAROLINA
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Miami
Carolina is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

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**Udog** · 11-08-2017, 09:47 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
Monty Andrews

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)

Seahawks' lack of discipine vs. Cardinals' ability to draw flags

The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West - shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks - and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games - nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks' 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they're a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend's 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags - tied with Miami for the most in the league - for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona's plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL - and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 44)

Steelers' potent pass rush vs. Colts' poor QB protection

The Pittsburgh Steelers are well-rested and ready to get back to their Super Bowl quest - and this week looks like a tasty matchup, as they're giving away double-digit points to the Colts in Indianapolis. Pittsburgh reeled off three consecutive victories heading into its Week 9 bye, and rolls into Indiana facing a Colts team that just learned it will be without franchise quarterback Andrew Luck for the remainder of the season. Look for Pittsburgh's pass rush to capitalize on an Indy O-line that ranks among the league's worst.

Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of pittsburgh's offense has been up-and-down through the first half of the season, but the defense has been one of the league's most consistently elite units in football. The Steelers come into Week 10 with 26 sacks; only Jacksonville, Carolina and Dallas have more. Pittsburgh has eight sacks during its three-game run, while the Steelers' offensive line has surrendered just one sack over that same span.

Heaven help the Colts, who will send Jacoby Brissett back under center this weekend. Indianapolis quarterbacks have been sacked 36 times so far this season, the highest total in the league; the Colts allowed just 44 sacks all of last season, and even that total was fifth-highest in the NFL. Brissett was taken down three times in last week's stunning win over the Houston Texans - and the Colts won't be so lucky if they can't protect their quarterback against one of the NFL's fiercest pass rushes.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41)

Chargers' leaky run D vs. Jaguars' elite ground game

The Jacksonville Jaguars suddenly have division title aspirations as they look to remain atop the AFC South standings with a victory this weekend against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. Normalcy should return to the Jaguars' locker room after rookie running back Leonard Fournette was benched in Week 9 for a series of team violations. The Jaguars will need Fournette in the fold to take full advantage of the Chargers' questionable run defense.

The Chargers have limited opponents to just 19 points per game so far, but they should consider themselves fortunate in that regard given how much they have struggled against opposing rushers. Los Angeles ranks 28th out of 32 teams in yards per carry (4.6), 29th in rushing first downs allowed per game (7.0) and 31st in rushing yards against per contest (135.1). The Chargers have only given up five rushing scores, but that will change if they don't tighten up against the run.

This might not be the week the Chargers get right. The Jaguars boast the league's most potent rush attack, ranked first in yards per game on the ground (166.5) and second in yards per carry (4.8). And Jacksonville knows where its proverbial bread is buttered; it ranks first in the NFL in rush play percentage (52.9) and first in total rushes per game (34.8). It's no secret what the Jaguars' game plan will be - and the Chargers might not be equipped to do much about it.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 50.5)

Cowboys' interception avoidance vs. Falcons' flailing secondary

Dak Prescott and Matt Ryan were two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL last season. But, while Prescott has picked up right where he has left off, Ryan is scrambling to regain his 2017 form as he and the Falcons welcome Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday. While there's still a possibility that the Cowboys will lose running back Ezekiel Elliott to suspension at some point, Prescott's play has put bettors' minds at ease - and should continue to do so against a subpar Atlanta secondary.

The Cowboys registered the third-fewest interceptions in the NFL last season with six - and while they're on pace to surpass that total in 2017, it won't be by much. Prescott has had just four passes picked off through his first eight games of the season; only four teams have fewer interceptions. Prescott's consistency has been remarkable; he has completed between 63.5 and 64 percent of his passes in each of the past three games, without throwing an interception in any of them.

Don't expect Prescott's INT total to climb against the Falcons, who come into Week 10 with a paltry two interceptions - ranking 31st out of 32 NFL teams. Atlanta's one interception return yard - that's right, one - is also 31st in the league. The Falcons also rank in the bottom half of the league in passes defended (33), while Prescott has had just 27 passes defended - tied for seventh-fewest in the NFL. It should be a low-pressure kind of day for Prescott, which could give the Cowboys a pivotal edge.

**Udog** · 11-09-2017, 08:02 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday, November 9

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 111-112
November 9, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.686
Arizona
126.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5 1/2); Over

Sunday, November 12

Minnesota @ Washington

Game 251-252
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
137.462
Washington
134.571
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-1); Over

Green Bay @ Chicago

Game 253-254
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
130.999
Chicago
133.435
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 6
38
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+6); Under

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Game 255-256
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.137
Indianapolis
129.095
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 10 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+10 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Jacksonville

Game 257-258
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.637
Jacksonville
139.696
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-3 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Tampa Bay

Game 259-260
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.994
Tampa Bay
127.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 4 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2
43
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-2); Under

Cincinnati @ Tennessee

Game 261-262
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
128.987
Tennessee
129.725
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+5); Under

New Orleans @ Buffalo

Game 263-264
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
136.164
Buffalo
140.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under

Cleveland @ Detroit

Game 265-266
November 12, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
121.425
Detroit
137.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 16 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 11
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-11); Over

Houston @ LA Rams

Game 267-268
November 12, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
128.117
LA Rams
148.313
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 20
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 11
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-11); Over

Dallas @ Atlanta

Game 269-270
November 12, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.555
Atlanta
138.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Giants @ San Francisco

Game 271-272
November 12, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
126.366
San Francisco
121.259
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 2 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-2 1/2); Under

New England @ Denver

Game 273-274
November 12, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
133.249
Denver
131.245
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+7 1/2); Under

Monday, November 13

Miami @ Carolina

Game 275-276
November 13, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.515
Carolina
130.657
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 10
40
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+10); Under

**Udog** · 11-09-2017, 08:08 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Thursday's game
Seahawks (5-3) @ Cardinals (4-4)— Seattle ran ball better (148 yards) in 17-14 home loss to Redskins, Brown’s first game as their new LT; they outgained Skins 437-244, but committed 16 penalties for 138 yards- they’ve been penalized 358 yards in last three games. Seahawks are 2-2 on road, 1-0 as road favorite- they’ve held six of eight foes to 18 or less points. Arizona is 0-3 vs spread this year in game following a win; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Dallas by 11. Road teams are 4-0-1 in last five series games; Seattle is 3-0-1 in last four visits here, holding Arizona to 6 points in each of last three- teams tied 6-6 here in an ugly game LY. Six of last seven Arizona games, three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.

Sunday's games
Vikings (6-2) @ Redskins (4-4)— Minnesota won last four games, covered last three; they’re 1-1 in true road games, losing in Pittsburgh, winning 20-17 in Chicago. Vikings are 1-6 in last seven post-bye games, 1-7 vs spread in last eight- they held five of last six opponents under their total for that game. Washington evened its record with upset win at Seattle; they were outgained by 143 yards, with three new starters on offensive line. Home side won last four series games; Vikings lost 38-26/26-20 in last two visits here. Average total in last five series games is 57. Three of last four Redskin games went over total. NFC North teams are 12-9 vs spread outsider their division; NFC East teams are 14-10 vs spread, 8-4 as an underdog.

Packers (4-4) @ Bears (3-5)— Green Bay lost its last three games, scoring 10-17-10 points; they aren’t very good without Rodgers, scoring four TD’s on (22) drives in last three losses. Chicago is 6-2 vs spread this year but they’re favored for first time this season here; this is first time in nine years they’re favored over Packers. Green Bay is 12-2 in last 14 series games; they won last seven visits here. Pack (-7) won first meeting 35-14 in Week 4, thanks to +4 TO ratio. Bears outgained Green Bay 308-260. Bears are 2-2 at home, allowing 15.8 ppg- they lost last three post-bye games, by 41-3-26 points. Under is 6-2 in Chicago games this season. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-11-2 vs spread in divisional games. Since ’07, Bears are 15-28-3 as a home favorite; under Fox, they’re 0-4 as home faves.

Steelers (6-2) @ Colts (3-6)— Pittsburgh won/covered its last three games, allowing three TD’s on last 31 drives; Steelers are 4-1 on road, winning by 3-17-6-5 points- they’re 12-7 in last 19 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Colts lost three of last four games, are 2-2 at home- three of the four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Steelers won last four series games, last three all by 17+ points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 3-3-21 points. Pittsburgh lost its last three post-bye games; they were favored in two of them. Indy won/covered last four pre-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Colts’ last seven games; under is 7-1 in Steeler games this season.

Chargers (3-5) @ Jaguars (5-3)— Jaguars outscored last four opponents 43-6 in second half of game. Chargers won three of last four games after an 0-4 start; LA lost four of last six post-bye games. Bolts are 3-1 as a road underdog this year, losing on road by 3 in Denver, 8 in Foxboro- they won at Giants/Raiders. Three of their five losses are by 3 points or less. Jaguars allowed 7-7-9-0-7 points in their wins, 27-23-27 in their losses; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Chargers won last six games vs J’ville, beating Jaguars each of the last four years, scoring 31+ points in last three meetings. Bolts won last three visits here. Last three Charger games stayed under total, as did three of last four Jaguar games.

Jets (4-5) @ Buccaneers (2-6)— Winston (shoulder), Evans (WR) are out here; former Jets QB Fitzpatrick gets nod here under center for Tampa Bay- he is 34 years old, has 46-69-1 record as an NFL starter- he went 13-14 with the Jets the last two years. Bucs lost their last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), scoring total of 13 points in last two games (1 TD on 21 drives). Tampa Bay is 2-2 at home (under 3-1). Jets won five of last seven pre-bye games; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 17-14 at Cleveland- their road losses are by 9-25-3 points. Jets are 10-1 vs Tampa Bay; their only loss to the Bucs was in 1984. Gang Green won its last three visits to Tampa, with last visit here in ’09. Jets have 2+ takeaways in each go their last five games (+5).

Bengals (3-5) @ Titans (5-3)— Cincy is 1-3 on road this year, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 3-15-16 points- their one road win was in Cleveland. Bengals were held to 148 yards on just 37 plays in dismal 23-7 loss to Jaguars LW- they were 1-8 on 3rd down, had only 8 first downs. Tennessee won its last three games, winning last two by FG each; Titans are 3-1 at home, 2-1-1 as home favorites- their home wins are by 6-14-3 points. Cincy won last two series games, 24-17/33-7; they won last two visits to Nashville- their last loss here was in ’04. AFC North teams are 8-9-1 vs spread outside their division, 3-3-1 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 10-7-1, 4-2-1 as a home favorite. Over is 5-2 in last seven Tennessee games.

Saints (6-2) @ Bills (5-3)— New Orleans won its last six games after an 0-2 start; they’re 2-1 in true road games, winning at Carolina/Green Bay- they won last three games despite being -1 in turnovers in all three games. Saints allowed only 8 TD’s on their foes’ last 60 drives. Buffalo is 4-0 at home this season, allowing 17.3 ppg; Saints won last four series games, all by 12+ points; this is their first visit to western NY since 2009- NO won last three visits here, with lone loss in 1983. NFC South teams are 9-15-2 vs spread outside their division, 6-6-1 on road; AFC East teams are 12-7-2, 5-4-2 at home. Last three Buffalo games went over total; under is 5-1 in last six Saint games. Teams coming off of Thursday night games are 10-5-1 vs spread this season.

Browns (0-8) @ Lions (4-4)— Short week for Detroit after rare win in Lambeau Monday night, which makes this a trap game for Lions. Detroit lost its last three home games, allowing 25.7 ppg- they’re 12-5-3 as home favorite under Caldwell, 1-1 this year. Cleveland is 0-9 (2-7 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as road underdogs this year, losing road games by 14-3-16 points. Browns are 1-5 (2-4 vs spread) in last six post-bye games. Detroit won last three series games, by 3-1-14 points; Browns lost 38-37 in their only visit here, in 2009. Browns’ last three road games went over the total. NFC North home teams are 8-5 vs spread outside the division; AFC North road underdogs are 3-3-1. Cleveland is -13 in turnovers this year, which helps explain the 0-8 mark.

Texans (3-5) @ Rams (6-2)— Houston scored 7-14 points in losing both games Savage started this year; they scored 34.7 ppg in other six games, so Watson’s injury is crippling. Texans are are 3-0 vs spread as road underdog this year; all three games were decided by 4 or less points, but they were also all Watson starts. Rams are home for first time in five weeks; they won last three games, by 10-33-34 points. LA is 1-2 as a home favorite- they lost their last two home games, to Seattle, Washington. Wade Phillips coached with the Texans in 2011-13, was interim coach for three games. Road team won all three series games; Texans won 16-13 in St Louis in only road series games, in ’09. Over is 6-2 in Rams games this season.

Cowboys (5-3) @ Falcons (4-4)— Falcons lost four of last five games after a 1-4 start; they’re 1-2 at home, losing to Buffalo/Miami in last two home tilts. Atlanta scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in four losses- they won last two series games 19-13/39-28; Cowboys’ last series win was in 2009. Teams split last six series games in Atlanta. Dallas won/covered its last three games; they won their last three road games. Cowboys allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses. Dallas ran ball for 183.4 ypg the last five games; check Elliott’s legal status. Last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; four of last five Dallas games went over. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks.

Giants (1-7) @ 49ers (0-9)— Not many 0-9 teams have been favored/pick ‘em in Game 10. 49ers were outscored 51-6 in first half of their last three games; they’re favored for first time this year. This will probably be Beathard’s last start for 49ers; they have bye next week, then Garoppolo figures to take over as the QB. Giants are 3-1 vs spread on road this year, winning at Denver in their last road game. Big Blue’s road losses are by 16-3-2 points, at Dallas/Philly/Tampa- they’ve allowed 400+ yards in their last three games- they allowed 14.1 ypa in rain last week. Big Blue lost field position in its last two games, by 11-14 yards. Giants won six of last eight series games; their last visit to SF was in 2012. Four of last six Giant games went over total.

Patriots (6-2) @ Broncos (3-5)— Denver lost its last four games, giving up 80 points in last two games; their reality is none of its three QB’s are good enough. Broncos allowed TD on defense or special teams in three of last four games- they’re 3-1 at home, but loss was to the 1-7 Giants. New England won its last four games (3-1 vs spread); they’re 3-0 on road, 2-1 as a road favorite, with road wins by 16-5-7 points. Patriots lost six of last eight visits to Denver; they’re 2-3 in last five games with Broncos- two of three losses were playoff games. Since 2013, NFL home teams are 5-9 vs spread if they played on road the previous three weeks. Broncos covered four of last five tries as a home underdog. Last four New England games stayed under the total.

Monday's game
Dolphins (4-4) @ Panthers (6-3)— Miami has led one game at halftime this year, Week 4 vs the Titans; Dolphins are 2-2 in true road games, with wins by total of 5 points. Three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Carolina is 2-2 at home; their defense has allowed only two TD’s on 31 drives in their last three games. Miami is 4-1 against the Panthers, winning 13-9/24-17 in its two visits here. Carolina won last meeting 20-16 in 2013. AFC East road teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC South home teams are 3-9. Panthers lost six of last eight pre-bye games. Carolina OC Mike Shula is Don Shula’s son. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Carolina games stayed under.

**Udog** · 11-09-2017, 08:20 AM

NFL

Thursday, November 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Seahawks at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6, 41)

The Seattle Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed field-goal attempts and a season-high 16 penalties. Speaking of ties, the Seahawks return to the site of a rare draw last season when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday.

"Yeah, it's a great challenge, obviously, for Thursday night games. ... I think the biggest thing is the preparation part of it," Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight week and fifth time in six games in Sunday's 17-14 loss to Washington, told reporters. The 28-year-old tossed four scoring strikes in a 34-31 setback against Arizona last season on Christmas Eve after both teams were limited to field goals in a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23, 2016. Adrian Peterson was not a member of the Cardinals for those contests, but the 32-year-old is making up for lost time in a hurry with a career-high 37 rushes for 159 yards in Sunday's 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco. When asked what type of workload is expected for Peterson on the short week, Arizona coach Bruce Arians told reporters, "I would think the same as last week. ... I wouldn't challenge him in any form or fashion by saying, 'You're only going to get 20 (carries)' because I'd probably have to fight him on the sideline."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as five-point road favorites and by Wednesday that number was bumped up to 6 points. The total hit betting boards at 42.5 and has been bet down to 41.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-2.5) - Cardinals (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Cardinals -2.

INJURY REPORT:

Seahawks - TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), DE Dion Jordan (Probable, Knee), CB Jeremy Lane (Probable, Thigh), G Germain Ifedi (Probable, Finger), DE Michael Bennett (Probable, Heel), G Oday Aboushi (Probable, Shoulder), WR Tyler Lockett (Probable, Shoulder), RB C.J. Prosise (Probable, Ankle), DT Sheldon Richardson (Questionable, Oblique), WR Paul Richardson (Questionable, Groin), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Ankle), S Earl Thomas (Doubtful, Hamstring), DE Marcus Smith (Out, Concussion), RB Eddie Lacy (Out, Groin), G Luke Joeckel (Out, Knee), G Rees Odhiambo (I-R, Hand), FB Tre Madden (I-R, Calf), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), DT Malik McDowell (Questionable, Concussion), DE Cliff Avril (I-R, Neck), RB Chris Carson (I-R, Knee), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee), T George Fant (I-R, Knee), CB DeAndre Elliott (I-R, Ankle).

Cardinals - DL Frostee Rucker (Probable, Shin), LB Karlos Dansby (Probable, Finger), S Budda Baker (Probable, Ankle), WR Chad Williams (Questionable, Back), WR Brittan Golden (Questionable, Groin), RB T.J. Logan (Questionable, Wrist), C Daniel Munyer (I-R, Toe), RB David Johnson (I-R, Wrist), QB Carson Palmer (Out, Arm), LS Aaron Brewer (Out, Hand), LB Markus Golden (I-R, Knee), G Mike Iupati (Out, Tricep), CB Ronald Zamort (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U): Blair Walsh had reason to hang his head after missing field-goal attempts of 44, 39 and 49 yards versus the Redskins, but coach Pete Carroll didn't want those misfires to lead to the 27-year-old kicker worrying about his job security. "I'm concerned that he had trouble in this game," Carroll said on his 710 ESPN Seattle radio show. "I don't think that that has to do with anything (on Thursday). We'll find out. We'll see him come on back." Doug Baldwin, who made a career-best 13 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown in the last encounter with Arizona, has 22 receptions on 34 targets for 254 yards and two scores over his last three games.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 2-6 O/U): Drew Stanton traditionally has stepped up when called upon, and the 33-year-old did precisely that by extending his winning streak to four starts - albeit spread over nearly three years - by tossing two touchdown passes versus the 49ers. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." J.J. Nelson rolled up 132 receiving yards in his last encounter with Seattle but has made just three catches for 54 yards in his last three overall games.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 12-3 in Cardinals last 15 home games.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Arizona.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road fave Seahawks at a rate of 55 percent and the Under is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-09-2017, 03:59 PM

NFL Week 10 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

When Jacksonville wins, it wins big, with margins of 16, 27, 21, 37 and 22 points in victories this season. Can the Jaguars cover again in Week 10?

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 42.5)

The early offshore number came out with -2 on the Vikings and that quickly dropped to as low as -1 from the outset. I favor the offshore number, in fact, I made this Minnesota -2.5 to be honest.

As good as Washington looks at times, its season has been an up-and-down affair. A quality win in Seattle doesn’t mask the fact that they can’t seem to win against other top teams in the league. Prior to last Sunday, the Redskins fell to Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City, and their lone win was against the cellar-dwelling 49ers.

Minnesota has been pretty much lights out. Winners of four in a row, the Vikings defense has been their calling card. For six games in a row, they have not given up more than 17 points. This makes it a lot easier for the offense. Now, with a week off, both sides of the ball are well rested and ready to go. You have to think these guys are energized for this game.

No matter who you like with a line this low, all your asking for is your team to win. The spread appears to be a non-factor. That’s why I believe the value is with the Vikings. The way this line is moving, you just might want to wait to see if this hits the Pick’em level by game day.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 41)

Again, the early number coming out from the offshores was -4.5 and that was quickly bet down to the current -3.5. And like Vikings-Redskins game, I agree with the bookmakers on this one. I’m riding the Jaguar Express while it’s hot and made this line closer to -5.5, bordering -6.

Despite Philip Rivers’ mounting passing yardage, the Chargers don’t seem to be scoring a lot. Their offense is mustering less than 19 points per game, averaging only 17 the past three weeks. Certainly, there’s nothing wrong with their defense, but after losing their first four games of the season, their three-game win streak seems a little tarnished beating teams like the Giants, Oakland and Denver. Three teams that total just eight wins for the season.

Jacksonville is hot. Add the return of top running back, Leonard Fournette, and the offense can keep some distance on the scoreboard. As for the defense, the Jaguars have held three of their last four opponents to single digits. When Jacksonville wins, it wins big, with margins of 16, 27, 21, 37 and 22 points.

The momentum appears to be with the Jaguars, who are locked in a two-way tie for first place in the AFC South. Don’t be afraid of the hook - not when this game should be around a touchdown difference.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5, 40.5)

Tennessee broke out of the gate at -5.5 and the line has been slowly creeping downwards, in some cases, as low as -4.5 at some books. I’m with the early money on this one. I made this no higher than -3.5 and was thinking -3 (-120) was better.

Cincinnati traditionally is a betting favorite for good reason. And although they don’t always play up to their expectations, the Bengals are a team that has the perception that they can break out at any time. With WR A.J. Green dodging the suspension bullet, the Bengals appear to be at their crossroads for this season. Their two losses in the past five weeks were to quality teams in Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. And if not for those defeats, they’d be in the thick of things in the AFC North. They’ll be in thicker things if they lose this week.

Tennessee is mounting the W’s but peeling back the layers a bit reveals wins against Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis. The Titans’ combined efforts have yielded a mere seven wins total. With an erratic offense, it seems that Cincinnati can stay close all game and even win this one straight up.

After last week’s dismal display, I get the feeling the Bengals will have something to prove and will be highly energized to get this game underway. The value here is with the dog, grabbing as many points as you can.

**Udog** · 11-12-2017, 09:19 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 10 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (657)

5) New Jersey Jets -2.5 (666)

4) Los Angeles Rams -12 (697)

3) Washington Redskins +1 (703)

2) Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (719)

1) Buffalo Bills +3 (1,182)

Season record of top 6 picks: 21-33

**Udog** · 11-12-2017, 09:55 AM

ESSENTIAL WEEK 10 BETTING TIDBITS AND ODDS FOR NFL SUNDAY

The Los Angeles Rams are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last three games with a 25.7-point average margin of victory. Will the good times roll against the banged up Texans?

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+10, 45)

This game marks the fourth straight year the Steelers and Colts play each other in the regular season. The Steelers are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in the last three matchups, and hold a 124-51 edge in points scored. Andrew Luck played in only one of those games.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the away team favored by 10 points. Some shops flirted with 10.5 but just about all locations have the Steelers as 10-point faves. The total has been as low as 43.5 and as high as 44.5. It seems like it will settle at 44.

TRENDS:

*The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following their bye week.
*The under is 21-5 in the Steelers’ last 26 road games.
*The over is 5-2 in the Colts’ last seven games overall.

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+1.5, 42)

The Vikes have another QB dilemma now that they’ve activated Teddy Bridgewater. The real story in Minnesota is the people on the other side of the ball. The Purple People Eaters possess a menacing defense that hasn’t allowed more than two touchdowns in any their eight games this season.

Minnesota is giving up the fewest amount of explosive plays – meaning runs of 11 yards or more or passing plays of 15 yards or more – (according to NFL Matchup on ESPN) with just 44 this season.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as a 2.5-point underdog and the line has moved a point in the team’s favor. The total opened at 42.5 and seems to be holding at that number, although, there are a few 42s on the board.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 1-6 in their last seven games following a bye week.
*Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-11, 43.5)

If DeShone Kizer’s rookie season was a Rom-Com movie the title would definitely be He’s Just Not That Into You. The second round pick out of Notre Dame won the starting job in preseason and head coach Hue Jackson told reporters he thought Kizer could be the long-term quarterback in Cleveland’s future.

Then Kizer got benched. Then he reclaimed the starting job. And then the Browns almost acquired Bengals backup QB A.J. McCarron at the trade deadline – presumably to take Kizer’s role with the first team Cleveland offense.

Kizer owns the league’s worst passer rating at 51.1 and hasn’t tossed a TD pass since Week 3 against the Colts.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened up offshore as high as 13-point home favorites and now are down to 11-point chalk. The total opened at 43.5 and most shops are dealing 44 heading into the weekend.

*The Browns are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games.
*The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
*The under is 11-5 in the Browns’ last 16 games overall.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, 43.5)

It’s hard to explain New York playing so far above the team’s preseason expectations. One thing the prognosticators probably forgot is that Todd Bowles is a really good defensive coach. The Jets are one of only four teams not to allow a 100-yard receiving game this season.

The streak should continue this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's leading receiver Mike Evans is serving a one-game league issued suspension for his hit on New Orleans DB Marshon Lattimore.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Jets giving a point but moved up to TB +2.5 in a hurry. The total has been bet up two full points from 41 to 43.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The Bucs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The under is 6-1 in the Bucs’ last seven home games.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 37.5)

The last time the Chicago Bears were favorites against the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers was a first-year starter under center. It makes sense than Da Bears are chalk again in this spot with A-Rod injured.

Brett Hundley will be the first quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers to start against Chicago since some guy name Favre was large and in charge with the Cheeseheads.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 3-point favorites but the spread has grown to 5.5 points at most locations. The total opened at 38 and has been bet down a half point.

TRENDS:

*The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
*The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Packers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Bears.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 41)

The verdict is in from Vegas on the Jags. They’re good. Jacksonville finds itself the betting favorite for a fourth straight week – the first time that’s happened since November 2006.

This is the fifth straight year the Jags and Bolts – two non-divisional foes – will play each other. The Chargers are 4-0 SU and ATS in the previous four matchups and LA QB Philip Rivers has 12 TD passes and no interceptions in those games.

LINE HISTORY: The Jags opened as 4.5-point chalk and that’s where the spread has stayed most of the week. The total opened at 41.5 and some shops have dropped the number to 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with winning records.
*The over is 5-1 in the Jags’ last six home games.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+3, 46.5)

The Bills defense was among the most impressive groups in the league after the first four weeks of the season. Buffalo’s stopper unit ranked first in points allowed, second in opposing QB rating and fifth in yards allowed per play. But the Bills haven’t been able to maintain the results over their last four games.

Opponents are averaging 5.92 yards per play since Week 5 and 7.72 per pass attempt. No surprise the over is 3-1 in Buffalo’s last four contests. Props to ESPN's Mike Rodak for digging up the full breakdown.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as 2-point home dogs and books now have the Saints giving the full field goal. The total opened at 47 and has dropped a half point to 46.5.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games.
*The Saints are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games.
*The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5, 40.5)

Titans beat reporter Jim Wyatt did a quick look of his team at the midway point of the season comparing this year to last and where the club stands. Interestingly enough, the Titans ranked worse in almost every category this year compared to 2016 except for one important one: Win-Loss record.

Tennessee is 5-3 after its first eight games and went 4-4 at the same point last season. The Titans remain the only team that has both a winning record and a negative point differential.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Titans giving as many as six points to the visiting Bengals. The spread come down a half point to 5.5.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The under is 12-4 in the Bengals’ last 16 games overall.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-11, 45.5)

Crazy times in the NFL. The Rams are double-digit favorites for only the second time since 2004. LA seems to have regrouped well since falling at home to the Seahawks in Week 5. The Rams have gone 3-0 SU and ATS since with an average margin of victory of 25.7 points.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as low as 10.5-point faves and the spread can be found as high as 12 points entering the weekend. The total opened at 47 and has moved down a point and half to 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The over is 6-0 in the Rams’ last six games vs. a team with a losing record.
*The Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 42)

Two New York players told ESPN reporter Josina Anderson that head coach Ben McAdoo has lost the team. Defensive backs Landon Collins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie refuted the suggestion saying that McAdoo isn’t the person responsible for the team’s 1-7 start.

Former Pro Bowl safety turned NFL commentator Rodney Harrison said on Football Night in America that Giants cornerback “flat out quit” on a play during a highlight package. The Giants lost 51-17 to the Rams last weekend.

LINE HISTORY: The Niners opened as 1-point home chalk but the line has flipped in favor of the visiting Giants. The total is hanging around 42 without much movement.

TRENDS:

*The Niners are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
*The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 48.5)

Ezekiel Elliott will not play in this game – unless some other judge or second circuit court pops up and overturns the ruling for this week. We don’t pretend to be lawyers so pardon our confusion with this guessing game regarding Elliott’s weekly game status. From what we read – he is out and will be out the next six games. Expect former Redskins starter Alfred Morris to fill in at running back with Elliott out of the picture.

LINE HISTORY: There are books dealing Atlanta -3 and others offering Atlanta -3.5. It may cost you some juice if you want to get the Falcons at -3 or the Cowboys at +3.5. The total opened at 50.5 but most locations have it at 48.5 as we enter the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
*The over is 12-2 in the Falcons last 14 home games.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5)

Bill Belichick is a coaching genius but whatever value there was backing his team off a bye week appears to have dissolved. The Pats are 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread in their last six games after the regular season bye week.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the Pats favored by a touchdown but oddsmakers quickly added the half point hook. New England enters the weekend as 7.5-point chalk. The total opened at 46 and moved a point down to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
*The Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
*The under is 4-0 in the Pats’ last four games.

**Udog** · 11-12-2017, 09:59 AM

NFL

Sunday, November 12

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BETTING PREVIEW AND ODDS: PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5, 44.5)

The Denver Broncos are in a freefall and the prospect of stopping the tailspin doesn't look promising with the defending Super Bowl champions coming to town. The Broncos have dropped four in a row and will try to bounce back from an ugly beat-down when they host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a prime-time matchup on Sunday night.

Denver was blasted by Philadelphia 51-23 last week in its third straight road game, but the team has enjoyed success at home against the Patriots and Brady. "It is the perfect opponent," Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler said of New England. "I think any time you find yourself in a losing streak like this and not playing good football, you want to play a great opponent because if you can go out there and play a good football game and find a way to get a win, it's going to create a ton of momentum for your football team." The Patriots have ripped off four straight victories to move into a tie with Pittsburgh for the AFC's best record and are coming off a bye, but Brady has won only three of 10 career matchups against Denver in the Mile High City. "There's little margin for error when you go out there," Brady said. "They have a great defense. They have great players on both sides of the ball. You can't go out there and make a bunch of mistakes and expect to win." **video

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-6) - Broncos (4) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-road chalk against the Broncos and that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board at 46 and was bet up as high as 47 before money came in on the under dropping that number to 44.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY:  'The AFC rivals have squared of three times in the past six seasons in the playoffs, as well as 6 times during the course of the regular season the last six years as well, so they know one another practically as well as they do their division foes. The well-rested Pats have struggled in game at Denver, going 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS the last nineteen visits, but the Broncos have quarterback issues and are riding a 0-4 SU and ATS losing skein since their bye week in mid October. Safe to say anything can happen tonight.' Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY:  'The little bit of smart money we’ve seen has come on both sides of this game. The public is all over the Pats as we have almost 80 percent of the tickets on that side, but the money handle favors New England 55-45. We’ve taken some sharp money on the under and dropped that two points off the open.' Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - WR Danny Amendola (Probable, Knee), CB Stephon Gilmore (Probable, Concussion), DE Cassius Marsh (Questionable, Shoulder), DB Eric Rowe (Questionable, Groin), DL Malcom Brown (Questionable, Ankle), OL Marcus Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), WR Chris Hogan (Doubtful, Shoulder), OL Andrew Jelks (Questionable, Knee), OL Tony Garcia (Questionable, Illness), LB Shea McClellin (I-R, Concussion), WR Malcom Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (I-R, Pectoral).

Broncos - WR Demaryius Thomas (Probable, Hamstring), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Probable, Ankle), S Darian Stewart (Probable, Thigh), WR Cody Latimer (Probable, Knee), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Neck), WR Bennie Fowler III (Questionable, Ankle), G Ron Leary (Questionable, Elbow), G Matt Paradis (Questionable, Back), RB C.J. Anderson (Questionable, Ankle), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Questionable, Ankle), OT Menelik Watson (I-R, Foot), TE Jake Butt (I-R, Knee), QB Chad Kelly (I-R, Wrist).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U): New England has not been an offensive juggernaut during its winning streak, averaging just under 22 points per game, but Brady leads the league with 2,541 passing yards while throwing for 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Brady continues to spread the wealth, with five different receivers catching at least five passes in a 21-13 victory over San Diego before the bye, but wideout Chris Hogan is expected to miss the game due to injury. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has five touchdown receptions and is second to running back James White with 34 catches, missed last season's 16-3 victory in Denver. The Patriots owned the league's worst defense through four games but they have yielded an average of 12.8 points over the past four.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Osweiler, set to make his second straight start following the benching of Trevor Siemian, beat the Patriots while with Denver in 2015, passing for 270 yards and a score in a 30-24 overtime victory. Duplicating that feat could be considerably tougher this time around with his three top receivers -- Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler -- and three of his starting offensive linemen all dealing with assorted injuries. The ground game needs to get untracked after C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker and Jamaal Charles managed 35 yards on 21 carries in Philadelphia. Denver's defense is No. 2 in the league with 280.8 yards allowed, but ranks in the middle of the pack with 19 sacks despite the presence of linebacker Von Miller.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.

* Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The Covers public is siding with the road fave Patriots at a rate of 69 percent and the Over is getting 56 of the totals action.

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**BettorsChat** · 11-12-2017, 12:12 PM

11-12-17.jpg

**Udog** · 11-13-2017, 07:50 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 10 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (657)- W

5) New Jersey Jets -2.5 (666)- L

4) Los Angeles Rams -12 (697)- W

3) Washington Redskins +1 (703)- L

2) Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 (719)- L

1) Buffalo Bills +3 (1,182)- L

Season record of top 6 picks: 23-37

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Vikings 38, Redskins 30— Minnesota won its last five games, covered its last four; Case Keenum was 21-29/304 passing with four TD’s. Keenum played for the Rams LY; LA was 4-5 in his starts before Jared Goff became the starter— Goff and the Rams visit the Twin Cities next Sunday.

Jaguars 20, Chargers 17 OT— If you had the Chargers +3.5, take a big sigh of relief; LA had ball in last 2:00, up 17-14- they fumbled and Jaguars ran ball back for an apparent TD, but replay said the defender was down when he picked the ball up, so the TD was nullified, Jax kicked a FG and the game went to overtime.

Chargers have four losses by 3 or less points; they had 15 drives in this game, ran 67 plays, but never got into the red zone- they were only 3-15 on 3rd down.

Seahawks 22, Cardinals 16— When Russell Wilson gets inducted into the Hall of Fame, they’ll show the 54-yard pass he completed to Doug Baldwin in the 4th quarter of this game, after a scramble that looked a lot like Fran Tarkenton in his early Viking days.

Arizona QB Stanton sprained his knee, may miss next week’s game, which could mean a QB showdown between Blaine Gabbert/TJ Yates. Seahawks were penalized 12 more times for 108 yards, but did enough to stay a game behind the Rams in the NFC West.

Saints 47, Bills 10— New Orleans ran ball for 298 yards, had 32 first downs, also had an 18-yard edge in field position as they won their 7th straight game. Saints allowed 17 or less points in six of last seven games, and in the 7th game, their defense SCORED three TD’s, vs Detroit.

Saints became the first team since 1941 to run for six touchdowns and not punt in that game.

Packers 23, Bears 16— Worst replay challenge ever? In 2nd quarter, Bears would’ve had a first down around the Green Bay 2-yard line, but they challenged that the ball carrier had scored a TD, when in fact, he fumbled and the correct call was a touchback. Whoops.

Hundley wins his first NFL road start but also tweaked his hamstring- they play Baltimore next.

Titans 24, Bengals 20— Tennessee outgained Bengals 416-308, as once again Cincy ran only 50 plays- they’ve run 87 plays total the last two games.

Score should’ve been more one-sided; Titan WR Matthews dropped a sure TD in 2nd quarter, followed by Succop having his streak of 56 consecutive FG’s under 50 yards end with a miss. Later on, rookie WR Davis fumbled on the 1-yard line for a touchback when the Titans were threatening to pull away for good. Bengals aren’t a good team.

Buccaneers 15, Jets 10— Tampa Bay had a 17-yard edge in field position, as Fitzpatrick beat the team he started for the last two years. Jets still haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2, but they are 4-6 heading into their bye week. Jets were held to 3 or 7 2nd half points in four of their last five games.

Steelers 20, Colts 17— Indy scored two TD’s, on 60-61 yard pass plays; they led 10-3 at half but let this slip away at end. Steelers tied game with a 10-yard TD drive after an INT, then won game with a FG at the gun. Pittsburgh won its last four games, three by 6 or less points. Four of last six TD’s Steelers allowed came on plays of 57+ yards.

Lions 38, Browns 24— Cleveland led 10-0 early, then 24-17 with 2:23 left in 3rd quarter, but if you took the Browns +13:
a) Don’t bet on the Browns and…….
b) they didn’t cover the spread, despite outgaining Lions 413-345.

Right now, Cleveland has the #1 pick and the Giants #2 pick— will they both take QB’s? Will Giants trade Eli Manning to Denver or Jacksonville?

Rams 33, Texans 7— Houston turned ball over four times (-4), once in red zone when Texans led 7-6 just before halftime. From that point on, it was all Rams, who gained 205 yards in the third quarter and dominated the second half.

Houston won’t make the playoffs this year, but if Deshaun Watson rehabs well, they’re going to be very optimistic about 2018. As for the rest of this year, wouldn’t be surprised if TJ Yates gets the nod under center for their next game, against Arizona.

Falcons 27, Cowboys 7— Atlanta sacked Dak Prescott eight times; turns out Ezekiel Elliott’s absence wasn’t the big deal Sunday, it was LT Tyron Smith- his replacement allowed six of the eight sacks. Cowboys’ only TD drive was 21 yards. Both teams are now 5-4 and Elliott is out for another five games- could be that neither one of these teams makes the playoffs.

49ers 31, Giants 21— Three of SF’s four TD’s came on plays of 33+ yards; only 2 of their 13 TD’s coming into this game were on plays of 20+ yards. 49ers were 8-12 on third down- they gained 474 yards, averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt.

At this point, you wonder if Giant ownership has begun the search for a new coach/GM, and if so, how far along are they in the process. Losing this game puts the Giants ahead of SF on the draft list for next April; they’d have the #2 pick behind Cleveland right now.

Patriots 41, Broncos 16— Has a special teams coach ever been fired at halftime of a game? In the first 19:40 Sunday night, Denver lost a fumbled punt, had a punt blocked and allowed a TD on a kick return. In the second half, they had 12 men on the field for a punt, giving New England a first down. No bueno.

Sunday was Al Michaels’ 73rd birthday; I hope I’m as sharp as he is when I’m 73.

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