NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Tues., Oct. 31 - Sat., Nov. 4)

[Udog]

SATURDAY'S WEEK 10 NCAAF TOP 25 BETTING CHEAT SHEET AND ODDS

(4) Wisconsin Badgers at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5, 48.5)

* The Badgers have the nation's best third-down conversion rate at 53.5 percent, and rank second in the country in average time of possession (35 minutes per game). Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor saw his seven-game TD streak snapped Saturday vs. Illinois.

* The Hoosiers are one of four teams with an NCAA-low two interceptions on defense. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey (1,252 passing yards, 10 TDs, five INTs) is considered day-to-day after suffering a knee injury in last weekend's loss to Maryland.

LINE HISTORY: The Badgers hit the betting board as 9-point road chalk at most books and money on the road team drove that number as high as 14, before coming down a bit to the current number of 13.5. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down a full point to 48.5.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.

* Hoosiers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

* Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

* Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Indiana.

(7) Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans (+9.5, 48)

* The Nittany Lions rank in the top 10 nationally both in turnovers gained (20) and fewest turnovers lost (six); their plus-14 overall margin is second-best in Division I. RB Saquon Barkley has three games of under 60 rushing yards this season.

* The Spartans are one of six teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, but have given up the most rushing scores (seven) of the group. QB Brian Lewerke's 445 passing yards Saturday exceeded his total from the previous three weeks combined.

LINE HISTORY: Coming off their collapse last week the Lions opened as 7.5-point road faves in Lansing and that number wasn’t high enough for bettors. Money coming in on the road team has pushed that line up to 9.5. The total opened at 48 and has yet to move off the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Nittany Lions are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.

* Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.

* Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

* Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Michigan State.

* Over is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings.

Massachusetts Minutemen at (22) Mississippi State Bulldogs (-32, 56.5)

* The Minutemen lead Division I in total sacks allowed (37) and sacks surrendered per game (4.63). Massachusetts RB Marquis Young has back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts, with three touchdowns over that span.

* The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in third-down conversion rate (47.5 percent). Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald has accounted for 10 touchdowns (five passing, five rushing) over his past three games, all one-sided victories.

LINE HISTORY: The Bulldogs opened as massive 28-point home chalk and money coming in on the home team has only pushed that number up. On Thursday the number had reached -32 and that’s where it currently sits. The total opened at 58 and money on the under has seen that number drop as low as 56, it has since rebounded to 56.5.

TRENDS:

* Minutemen are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. SEC.

* Over is 4-1 in Minutemen last 5 games following a ATS win.

* Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

* Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

(15) Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (+15, 52)

* The Tigers are tied for eighth in the nation in fewest penalty flags (33) and tied for 12th in fewest penalty yards (293). Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson has seven rushing touchdowns in three road games in 2017.

* Texas A&M ranks second in the nation in sacks (30), behind only Clemson. Three Aggies passers have combined to complete just 52.4 percent of their attempts on the season, good for 111th in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 15-point road faves and that number has yet to move. The total opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to an even 52.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.

* Aggies are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.

* Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games overall.

* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

(18) Stanford Cardinal at Washington State Cougars (-2.5, 55)

* Stanford has made 202 consecutive extra-point attempts, the third-longest streak in Division I behind only Texas A&M (231) and Auburn (203). RB Bryce Love ranks second in the nation in all-purpose yards per game (200.9).

* The Cougars average 84.1 rushing yards per game, ahead of only Western Kentucky; Love himself averages nearly 121 rushing yards in the first half alone. Washington State has committed 22 turnovers, third-most in the nation.

LINE HISTORY: The Cougars opened this Pac-12 North Division matchup as 2.5-point home faves and as of Friday morning that number has yet to move. The total hit the betting board as 55 and was briefly down to 54.5 before returning to the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.

* Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

* Under is 4-0 in Cardinal last 4 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Cougars last 6 games overall.

* Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Washington State.

(3) Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes (+18, 52.5)

* Buckeyes QB J.T. Barrett has thrown for 22 touchdowns with zero interceptions since his only INT of the season Sept. 9 vs. Oklahoma. Ohio State averages a whopping 75 penalty yards per game, eighth-most in Division I.

* The Hawkeyes limit opponents to a 30.5-percent third-down success rate, good for 19th in the country. Iowa TDB Josh Jackson leads the nation in passes defended (17) and passes broken up (15).

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed Ohio State as 16-point road chalk but bettors have pushed the line up as high as 18 at some shops. the total opened at 51.5 and is up a full point to 52.5.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

* Hawkeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

* Over is 6-0 in Buckeyes last 6 conference games.

* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

* Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

(5) Clemson Tigers at (19) NC State Wolfpack (+7.5, 51)

* The Tigers have won 52 consecutive games when holding the opposition to fewer than 23 points. QB Kelly Bryant has gone four games without a rushing score after racking up seven rushing TDs over his first four games.

* Wolfpack rushing leader Nyheim Hines (654 yards, six TDs) left after just two carries last week due to an ankle injury but is expected to return this week. NC State has thrown just one interception, second-fewest in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Wolfpack hit the board as 7.5-point home dogs and that number has yet to move. The total opened at 51 and like the spread has yet to move off the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.

* Under is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 games overall.

* Under is 10-1 in Wolfpack last 11 conference games.

* Under is 5-0 in Wolfpack last 5 games overall.

South Carolina Gamecocks at (2) Georgia Bulldogs (-23.5, 45)

* The Gamecocks have been penalized for just 278 yards on the season, the fourth-lowest total in the nation. South Carolina QB Jake Bentley has failed to crack 200 passing yards in his last three games, but has accounted for six TDs over that span.

* The Bulldogs are one of only three teams still perfect in the red zone, and are the most prolific of the three, going 31-for-31. Georgia is allowing just one sack per game through eight contests, the 11th-best rate in the country.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Georgia as 25-point home chalk and money coming in on the road team pushing that number down to -23.5. The total started out at 45.5 and is down slightly to an even 45.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

* Under is 13-3 in Gamecocks last 16 games following a straight up win.

* Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

(16) Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers (-2.5, 60)

* The Cyclones have surrendered just 24 second-half points in their five Big 12 Conference games. Iowa State joins SMU as the only Division I teams that have yet to lose a fumble in 2017.

* Mountaineers QB Will Grier (Division I-high 28 TD passes) threw four INTs and had his streak of games with 300+ passing yards snapped at seven in last week's loss to Oklahoma State. West Virginia ranks 98th in third-down conversion percentage (35.3).

LINE HISTORY: The Mountaineers opened with some books at 2.5 home faves and the number hasn’t moved off the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 61.5 and money coming in on the under brought that line down to 60.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in Cyclones last 6 games overall.

* Under is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Cyclones are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at (8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-14, 55)

* Demon Deacons QB John Wolford has accounted for nine touchdowns (seven passing, two rushing) over his past two games. Wake Forest has turned the ball over just five times all season, second-fewest in the country.

* Fighting Irish RB Josh Adams has had a run of 70+ yards in four consecutive games, and leads the nation in runs of 60+ yards with seven. Notre Dame is the only school in the nation that has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game this season.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened with the Irish as 14.5-point home faves, money coming in on the Deacons pushed the number as low as -12.5 before fading back and settling at 14. The total hit the board as 55 and was quickly bet up 56 before returning to the opening number by Friday morning.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

* Under is 6-0 in Demon Deacons last 6 vs. INDEP.

* Under is 5-1 in Demon Deacons last 6 road games.

(23) South Florida Bulls at Connecticut Huskies (+23.5, 64.5)

* The Bulls are one of only two FBS schools averaging 250+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards per game. South Florida leads the nation in interceptions (16) and sits tied for second in total turnover margin (plus-14).

* The Huskies have allowed opponents to convert 47.6 percent of their third-down opportunities, good for 121st in Division I. QB Bryant Shirreffs failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time all season in last week's loss to Missouri.

LINE HISTORY: South Florida opened as high as 23-point road chalk but the line briefly came down as low as 22 before money on the road team took that line up as high as 23.5. Most books opened the total at 64.5 and have yet to move it off that number.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Huskies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.

* Over is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

* Over is 5-1 in Huskies last 6 games following a ATS loss.

(9) Oklahoma Sooners at (10) Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 76)

* Sooners QB Baker Mayfield has thrown for 691 yards while accounting for nine touchdowns over the past two games. Oklahoma has forced just four interceptions on the season; only 14 FBS teams have fewer INTs.

* The Cowboys are an incredible 13-1 in their last 14 games decided by fewer than 10 points. Oklahoma State is outscoring foes 100-20 in the first quarter this season, and have held opponents without a first-quarter point in five of eight games.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened this year’s Bedlam Series as 3-point home faves and money on the road team lowered that number slightly to -2.5. The total hit the betting board at a massive 76 and has yet to move off the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games following a straight up win.

* Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games following a straight up win.

* Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Oklahoma State.

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

(14) UCF Knights at SMU Mustangs (+14.5, 73)

* The Knights remain the only FBS team to average more than 50 points per game. A dozen UCF players have either 100+ rushing or receiving yards, while two others - Adrian Killins Jr. and Otis Anderson - have reached triple digits in both categories.

* The Mustangs average 72 penalty yards per game; only 11 teams rack up more. SMU QB Ben Hicks has 16 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in the Mustangs' six victories, and a 3:4 TD-to-INT ratio in their two defeats.

LINE HISTORY: SMU opened as 13-point home dogs and that wasn’t enough for bettors as the money kept coming in on the home team pushing the line to +14.5. The total hit the betting board at 74.5, briefly went up to 75 and since money on the under has brought that number down to 73.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

* Mustangs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.

* Under is 4-1 in Knights last 5 games following a ATS loss.

* Under is 4-1 in Mustangs last 5 games overall.

* Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Texas Longhorns at (12) TCU Horned Frogs (-7, 46.5)

* The Longhorns rank seventh in Division I in third-down conversion defense (26.1 percent) and tied for second in fourth-down conversion rate against (14.3 percent). Texas has scored 58 points off turnovers in 2017 while allowing just seven.

* The Horned Frogs are the only school in the nation ranked in the top ten in third-down success rate (52.9 percent, second) and third-down defense (27.4 percent, eighth). QB Kenny Hill sits eighth in Division I in completion percentage (67.8).

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened TCU as 6.5-point home faves and is up slightly to a converted touchdown hours after opening and has held firm all week. The total opened at 46 and has been bet up to 47.

TRENDS:

* Longhorns are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

* Horned Frogs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.

* Under is 11-1 in Longhorns last 12 games on grass.

* Under is 4-0 in Horned Frogs last 4 conference games.

* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at (24) Michigan Wolverines (-15.5, 41)

* Minnesota ranks second nationally in fewest penalty flags per game (3.75) and third in fewest penalty yards per contest (33.4). QBs Conor Rhoda and Demry Croft have combined to complete 49.2 percent of their passes, the ninth-worst rate in the country.

* The Wolverines have converted 23-of-25 red-zone trips into points, with their 92-percent success rate ranked 14th nationally. RB Karan Higdon has 403 rushing yards and six touchdowns over his last three games.

LINE HISTORY: The Wolverine opened as 15.5 home chalk and that line briefly dropped to 15 before returning to the opening number where it has remained all week. The total hit the betting board at 41.5 and is down slightly to 41.

TRENDS:

* Golden Gophers are 7-1-4 ATS in their last 12 road games.

* Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.

* Over is 4-1 in Wolverines last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.

* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

(13) Virginia Tech Hokies at (6) Miami Hurricanes (+2.5, 50)

* The Hokies have allowed opponents to convert just 24 percent of their third-down opportunities, the third-best rate in Division I. Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson leads all first-year signal callers with 2,032 passing yards and 17 touchdowns.

* The Hurricanes have made good on a paltry 30.7 percent of their third-down chances, the 12th-worst success rate in the country. Miami QB Malik Rosier has thrown for 700 yards and five touchdowns over his past two games.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hokies as high as 3-point road faves against their ACC rivals and money coming in on the ‘U’ has driven that number down to +1 at most shops. The total opened at 50 in most shops and has been bet down to 46.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

* Under is 5-0 in Hokies last 5 games following a ATS win.

* Under is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games following a straight up win.

* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Miami.

(20) LSU Tigers at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-21, 48.5)

* The Tigers' defense has allowed just seven first-half touchdowns in its previous 13 games. LSU LB Devin White leads the SEC and ranks tied for 10th nationally in total tackles per game (10.0).

* The Crimson Tide are the only team in the country surrendering fewer than 10 points per game (9.8). Alabama is also the lone FBS team to succeed on all of its fourth-down attempts to date, going 11-for-11.

LINE HISTORY: The undefeated Crimson Tide opened at most books as 21.5-home chalk, that number has come down slightly to 21. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and has yet to move off that opening number.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

* Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Oregon Ducks at (11) Washington Huskies (-17.5, 53)

* The Ducks have racked up an average of 82 penalty yards per game so far, fourth-most in Division I. Oregon leads the Pac-12 and ranks second in the nation in total sacks (30) and eighth in sacks per game (3.33).

* The Huskies have held opponents to 28 points or fewer in 22 consecutive games dating back to the 2015 Heart of Dallas Bowl. Washington has surrendered just eight offensive touchdowns (five passing, three rushing) in eight games.

LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened this Pac-12 matchup as 21-point home faves and money pouring in on the road team has seen the line drop to -16.5 as of Friday afternoon. The total hit the board at 51.5 in most shops and has been bet up slightly to 52.5.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

* Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

* Under is 7-0 in Ducks last 7 road games.

* Under is 7-1-1 in Huskies last 9 conference games.

* Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Washington.

(25) Arizona Wildcats at (17) USC Trojans (-7.5, 73)

* Wildcats QB Khalil Tate accounted for 14 touchdowns - eight rushing and six passing - in four October games. Arizona has held opponents to a 75-percent success rate in the red zone, good for 22nd nationally.

* The Trojans average 3.22 sacks per game, just outside the top 10 in Division I. USC QB Sam Darnold has thrown for 11 touchdowns against just one interception over his past four games.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this Pac-12 matchup with the Trojans 7.5 home faves, was bet down to an even -7 and bounced back and forth between -7 and -7.5 early in the week. Since Wednesday, the line has held at -7.5.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

* Over is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 road games.

* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Southern California.

* Underdog is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

[Udog]

NCAAF ACTION REPORT: IT'S BEDLAM AT THE BOOKS FOR COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 10
PATRICK EVERSON

No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan State Spartans – Open: +7.5; Move: +8; Move: +8.5; Move: +9; Move: +9.5; Move: +10

Penn State is coming off a gut-wrenching road loss and remains on the highway this week, but bettors don’t seem to mind so far. The Nittany Lions (7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS) had Ohio State on the ropes for much of their Week 9 affair, but couldn’t fend off a fourth-quarter rally in a 39-38 loss as a 7-point underdog.

Michigan State (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) had its four-game winning streak halted last week. The Spartans went to triple overtime at Northwestern, falling short 39-31 as a 1.5-point favorite.

“I think it’s professionals and the public on Penn State,” Bogdanovich said, noting early sharp action help drive the line up, and the public followed suit as the number reached 10 Friday night. “We’re going to need the Spartans here pretty good. That’ll be one of our biggest decisions of the day.”

CG sportsbooks, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip, opened Penn State -7.5 and were at 10 by late Friday morning.

“That was a tough loss for Penn State. They did cover the spread, and bettors did notice that,” Bernanke said. “Sharps and the public are both betting Penn State.”

Indeed, by Friday night, 90 percent of CG’s pointspread handle was on the Nittany Lions for this noon ET kickoff.

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys – Open: -3; Move: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -1

The Bedlam game is make-or-break for two teams trying to stay relevant in the College Football Playoff discussion. Oklahoma State (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) has won four in a row SU since its upset home loss to Texas Christian. That includes the Cowboys’ 50-39 win at West Virginia as an 8.5-point chalk last week.

Oklahoma (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) also has an upset home loss on its record, a month ago to Iowa State, but has won three in row SU since then. Last week, the Sooners dropped Texas Tech 49-27 laying 20.5 points at home.

“This actually is surprising early, but I think it’s gonna change late,” Bernanke said. “What we’re getting is three times more money on account, so the sharps are taking Oklahoma.”

Early over-the-counter action – primarily public action – favored Oklahoma State by a 2/1 margin, but by Friday night, the public was split on this 4 p.m. ET start.

William Hill, which operates dozens of sportsbooks around Las Vegas among more than 100 throughout Nevada, opened the Cowboys -3 and went to 2 on Friday morning.

“All the early money has been on Oklahoma, public and sharp as well,” Bogdanovich said. “So I think we’ll need Oklahoma State.”

No. 20 Louisiana State Tigers at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -21; Move: 21.5

Alabama is No. 1 in the AP and coaches polls, but when the first CFP poll came out Tuesday, Nick Saban’s troops were No. 2, behind SEC rival Georgia. That might throw some fuel on the fire for the Crimson Tide (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS), who had a bye last week following a 45-7 waxing of Tennessee as a huge 36.5-point fave.

LSU (6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS), also off a bye, has won three in a row since its shocking home loss to Troy. The Tigers topped Mississippi 40-24 giving 6.5 points on the road in Week 8.

“The public is split, and the sharps are on LSU, but not too much, as two times more money on account has taken LSU,” said Bernanke, who expects the CFP ranking will rankle the Tide. “How motivated will Alabama be when they’re ranked No. 2? I wouldn’t want to get in front of that train.”

William Hill opened ‘Bama -21.5 and stuck on that number all week long.

“We’re dead-even to the game,” Bogdanovich said of action on this 8 p.m. ET clash. “Being such a big spread has slowed down Alabama money.”

No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes – Open: +3; Move: +2.5; Move: +2; Move: +1; Move: Pick

Miami is unbeaten and hoping to prove that it’s worthy of CFP consideration out of the ACC. The Hurricanes (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS) have struggled each of the last three weeks, failing to cover each time, including as a healthy double-digit chalk in their last two games. In Week 9, Miami held off North Carolina 24-19 as a 21-point road favorite.

VaTech’s lone loss was certainly a quality one, at home against Clemson in Week 5. The Hokies (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) dunked Duke 24-3 laying 17 points at home last week.

“It’s good two-way action,” Bogdanovich said, while elaborating on the 3-point swing toward Miami. “Someone likes the ‘dog – that’s sharp play for sure – but as far as money on the game, we’re pretty even.”

This game jumped the fence at CG books, with VaTech opening -2.5 and the line leaping to Miami -2 by Friday night. All the sharp pointspread action was on the ‘Canes, and the public is betting Miami by a 2/1 margin for this 8 p.m. ET matchup.

No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones at West Virginia Mountaineers – Open: -2.5; Move: -3

Iowa State has spent the past month playing giant killer while winning and cashing four in a row. The Cyclones (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS) opened October by upsetting then-unbeaten Oklahoma on the road, and ended it last week by knocking off previously perfect Texas Christian 14-7 as a 7.5-point home pup.

West Virginia (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just gave up a 50-burger to Oklahoma State, losing 50-39 at home catching 8.5 points in Week 9.

“The sharps are on West Virginia,” Bogdanovich said of activity for this 3:30 p.m. ET start. “I think the public will be on Iowa State (today), so we’ll be in good shape on this game.”

CG books bounced around a bit, opening at 3, dropping to 2 Wednesday, then back to 3 Friday. Sharp and public players favored the Mountaineers by a 2/1 margin.

No. 5 Clemson Tigers at No. 19 North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: +7; Move: +7.5; Move: +8; Move: +7.5

After its stunning loss at Syracuse, Clemson had a Week 8 bye to get ready for Georgia Tech, and the rest probably didn’t hurt. The defending national champion Tigers (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) won 24-10 last week to push as 14-point faves.

North Carolina was riding high on a six-game winning streak heading to Notre Dame in Week 9, but didn’t have any answers for the Irish. The Wolfpack (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS) lost 35-14 catching 7 points.

“We’re definitely high on Clemson money,” Bogdanovich said of this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. “A little bit of sharp money and a little bit of public for Clemson. We’re gonna need North Carolina State pretty good.”

No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes – Open: +16; Move: +17; Move: +17.5; Move: +18; Move: +18.5

Ohio State nearly saw its hopes of reaching the four-team CFP completely dashed last week, before mounting a big fourth-quarter comeback against Penn State. The Buckeyes (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) outscored the Nittany Lions 19-3 in the final frame to nab a 39-38 victory as a 7-point home chalk.

Iowa (5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) got out of the gate 3-0 this season, but is just 2-3 since then. The Hawkeyes enter this 3:30 p.m. ET contest coming off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota, pushing as 7-point favorites.

“The sharps are all over Ohio State,” Bogdanovich said. “That line looks high to me. It’s all professional money.”

Other games seeing noteworthy action/line movement at William Hill US:

• Syracuse at Florida State: The Seminoles opened -4 and were bet up to -7 by Friday for today’s 12:20 p.m. ET start. “All sharp money on Florida State,” Bogdanovich said. “They bet Florida State last week, too, so it’s not a surprise.” The ‘Noles went to Boston College as 6-point favorites last week and got thumped, 35-3.

• Northwestern at Nebraska: This line jumped the fence, illustrating once again just how little faith bettors have in Nebraska, even at home. The Huskers opened -1.5, and by lunchtime Friday, the Wildcats were a 1.5-point road chalk for this 3:30 p.m. ET contest. “We’re definitely high on Northwestern, and that’s sharp money,” Bogdanovich said. “The public hasn’t gotten involved at all. It’s not a huge decision.

• No. 4 Wisconsin at Indiana: “Plenty of Wisky money, and there always is. It’s more public than anything,” Bogdanovich said of activity on this noon ET meeting. The Badgers opened -10 and were bet up to -13.5 by Thursday, before ticking down to 13 late Friday night.

• No. 14 Central Florida at Southern Methodist: The Knights, 7-0 SU and a stout 5-1-1 ATS, opened -13 and were bet up to 14.5, but SMU is getting some takers for this 7:15 p.m. matchup. “We’re dead-even to the game, but Central Florida has been bet really heavy this year, so I assume we’ll need SMU by game time,” Bogdanovich said.

• Oregon at No. 11 Washington: The Huskies opened -21 but dropped down to 17. “That’s all on news that Oregon’s QB is probably gonna play,” Bogdanovich said, alluding to Justin Herbert’s possible return from a broken collarbone. This is a Pac-12 After Dark contest, with a 10 p.m. ET kickoff.

• Colorado State at Wyoming: The Rams have jumped from -2.5 to -4 for this 7 p.m. ET clash. “Sharps and public are on Colorado State,” Bogdanovich said.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Northwestern 31, Nebraska 24 OT— Wildcats are first I-A team EVER to win three consecutive games in overtime. Someday they’re going to put a statue of Pat Fitzgerald outside the stadium in Evanston. As for Nebraska, they’ll be looking for a new coach soon.

12) Oklahoma 62, Oklahoma State 52— Do the kids in Oklahoma’s band ever get sick of playing Boomer Sooner? They must hear it in their sleep. Baker Mayfield threw for 598 yards in an Arena Football game played outdoors. Neither one of these teams plays much defense.

11) Iowa 55, Ohio State 24— This score isn’t a misprint; this doesn’t happen much, but when you’re -4 in turnovers, you lose. Buckeyes beat Penn State 39-38 LW, so they’ve allowed 93 points in their last two games- no bueno.

10) Wyoming 16, Colorado State 13— It poured rain in second quarter of this game, then it snowed most of the second half. Must be great fun living in Wyoming.

I think Wyoming QB Josh Allen will be the best NFL QB of guys playing in college right now; he doesn’t have lot of NFL talent around him, like the USC or Ohio State QB’s do.

9) Miami 28, Virginia Tech 10— Unbeaten Hurricanes were a home underdog early in week, but by Saturday, they were a small favorite. Lot of times, “hot teams” like that get hammered and sportsbooks clean up, but not this week. Miami-Notre Dame is a big game next week.

8) Bad Beat of the Decade Nominee: Florida Atlantic (-6.5) 30, Marshall 25— If you bet FAU -6.5 Friday night, skip to the next item. Owls led 30-23, had the ball on their own 43-yard line with 2:30 left and Marshall was out of timeouts. After taking a knee with losses of 5-9-5 yards, on 4th down from their own 24-yard line with 0:15 left, FAU took a safety, and didn’t cover the spread. The punter ran 11 yards back into the end zone for the safety.

To make matters worse, FAU coach Lane Kiffin made a snarky joke about it after the game. There has been lot of debate on Twitter on whether this was sound strategy or not- FAU won, so Kiffin did his job, but to me, punting the ball out of bounds would’ve been just as safe a play.

7) Ole Miss 37, Kentucky 34— Receiver on Ole Miss made a great catch in back left corner of the end zone with 0:05 left for the game-winning TD, after a replay reversal on a possible Ole Miss fumble kept the drive alive.

6) Michigan State 27, Penn State 24— Nittany Lions were headed to the national playoff, then lost the last two weeks, by a combined total of four points. The game started at noon and ended a little after 7— there was a 3.5-hour weather delay. Cruddy day in the midwest Saturday.

Michigan State is 11-4 in its last 15 games that were decided by 5 or less points.

5) Virginia 40, Georgia Tech 36— Tech is now 4-4; all four of their wins are by 14+ points- three of their four losses are by a total of six points. Yellow Jackets completed only 6-22 passes, which isn’t acceptable.

4) Army 21, Air Force 0— Then there is Army, which won this game without throwing one pass. Zero. Bupkus. But no incompletions, compared to 16 empty plays for Ga Tech. Imagine Army playing East Carolina? ECU threw 74 passes Saturday.

3) Upsets of the Week:
Iowa 55 (+17.5), Ohio State 24
Virginia (+9.5) 40, Georgia Tech 36
UL-Monroe (+9.5) 52, Appalachian State 45
Michigan State (+9) 27, Penn State 24
Temple (+8) 34, Navy 26
Army (+6.5) 21, Air Force 0

2) Notre Dame 48, Wake Forest 37— Total yardage was 710-587; Demon Deacons covered via the back door with 0:51 left. Notre Dame plays lot of ACC teams as the price for their basketball team being allowed to play in the ACC. Fighting Irish visit Miami next week; big game.

1) Arkansas 39, Coastal Carolina 38— Chanticleers are 1-8 in their first year of I-A football; they led this game 38-25 with 11:00 left to play. No way the natives in Arkansas are happy with this result, even though the home team won. Hogs need to win 2 of 3 to finish season to make a bowl at 6-6- they play LSU, Miss State, Missouri. Bret Bielema’s job could depend on it.

[Udog]

NCAAF opening line report: Week 11 betting opens with massive line move
Patrick Everson

“Early bettors got some great value, as top-ranked Georgia quickly moved from small ‘dogs to 2.5-point favorites.”

It’s the final month of college football’s regular season, and the push for the big prize – a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff – is getting turned on its head with each passing week. Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for four key Week 11 matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 10 Auburn Tigers (-2)

Georgia is No. 2 in the polls, but No. 1 where it really matters – in the prestigious CFP ranking. The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) remained on a collision course with Alabama for the SEC title by dispatching South Carolina 24-10 on Saturday, though they fell way short of cashing as 23.5-point chalk.

Auburn (7-2 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) could certainly upset Georgia’s apple cart this week. The Tigers’ two losses this season weren’t bad ones by any means – at Clemson and at Louisiana State – and they’ve won and covered on the road in their last two games. On Saturday at Texas A&M, Auburn won 42-27 as a 14.5-point favorite.

“Early bettors got some great value, as top-ranked Georgia quickly moved from small ‘dogs to 2.5-point favorites,” Mason said. “Georgia is by far the most popular bet on the entire betting board so far, with 93 percent of early bettors on the Dawgs. Even with the line move, bettors are still pounding Georgia and are counting on them to cover and beat Auburn for the sixth time in the last seven years.”

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (+1.5)

Notre Dame found itself at No. 3 in the initial CFP ranking released last Tuesday, after eye-catching victories over Southern California and North Carolina State. The Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) kept rolling in Week 10, topping Wake Forest 48-37 as a 15.5-point home fave.

Miami is undefeated and trying to make its way into the CFP. The Hurricanes (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) certainly helped their cause in Week 10 by rolling over Virginia Tech 28-10 laying 2 points at home.

“Outside of Georgia-Auburn, no other game is getting as much early action as this top-10 showdown,” Mason said. “The Irish have been very generous to their loyal bettors this season, racking up a 7-2 record against the spread. The public will be counting on another Notre Dame cover – just 30 percent of the early tickets are on Miami.”

BetOnline.ag opened Notre Dame -1.5 and saw some upward movement, even getting to 4 momentarily, before dialing back to 2.5 and settling at 3 late Sunday night.

No. 9 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-8)

If the Big 12 is to be represented in the CFP, one of these two teams will be doing said representing, and Oklahoma surely has the offensive firepower. On Saturday, the Sooners (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) hung a 62-burger on Bedlam rival Oklahoma State, holding on for a defensively challenged 62-52 victory as a 1-point road pup.

Texas Christian is also 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, and its lone loss was to Iowa State, just like Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs stubbed their collective toe in Week 9, but bounced back in Week 10 with a 24-7 home win over Texas giving 7.5 points.

“Dating back to last season, Oklahoma has been a covering machine in front of its home crowd, compiling an 8-1 record against the spread over their last 9 (home) games,” Mason said. “Despite this lopsided trend, 63 percent of early bettors hit TCU and the points. However, I believe the action will be pretty even come kickoff.”

No. 8 Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (+5.5)

The Pac-12 is fading like a pair of 20-year-old jeans, with Washington – which made it to the CFP a season ago – the last best hope to reach the playoff this season. The Huskies (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) plastered Oregon 38-3 in Week 10, easily covering as a 17.5-point road chalk.

Stanford already has three losses on its resume, something even Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love can’t mask. The Cardinal (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) went to Washington State on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite and left with a 24-21 outright loss, halting a five-game SU win streak.

“The Huskies have been on a covering tear recently, going 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Stanford, on the other hand, only covered the number once in its last five games,” Mason said. “The early bettors are split 50/50 on this one, although there hasn’t been too much early action. By comparison, there are more than three times the bets on Georgia alone than Washington and Stanford combined. Despite the lack of early action, Washington quickly moved to 7-point chalk.”