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**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 08:37 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Sharp action bloats Bucs spread vs. Carolina
Patrick Everson

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers find new ways to lose each week. They've dropped three in a row but sharp bettors are backing Jameis Winston and Co. to cover against the Panthers.

Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)

Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.

Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.

Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.

“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.

Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.

“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”

That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.

Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)

Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.

Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.

“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.

Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.

“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”

**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 08:38 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
Monty Andrews

The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak. The Vikings' D should feast on the Browns in Week 8.

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)
Vikings' third-down shutdown D vs. Browns' offensive struggles

The Cleveland Browns approach the midway point of the NFL's regular season still looking for their first victory - and Week 8 presents as big a challenge as they've faced all year as they welcome the vaunted Minnesota Vikings defense to town. Cleveland nearly came away with win No. 1 last week but ultimately fell short 12-9 in overtime - and it was yet another shoddy performance on third down that played a major role in the Browns remaining winless. They'll get no relief in that regard this week.

The Vikings have done plenty of things well this season en route to a 5-2 record and sole possession of top spot in an NFC North division that is completely up for grabs. And third-down defense has the centerpiece of the Vikings' defensive effort, with Minnesota allowing teams to score or extend drives on just 27.3 percent of their opportunities - the second-lowest rate in football. The Bears, Packers and Ravens have gone a combined 13-for-45 on third downs during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.

That run of dominance on third-down plays should continue against a Browns offense that can't seem to figure anything out. Cleveland is converting an abysmal 28.7 percent of third-down opportunities, the worst rate in football; going 3-for-13 on Sunday against the visiting Tennessee Titans cost the Browns their shot at a first victory. With the quarterback situation up in the air - yet again - for this weekend, look for Cleveland to struggle extending drives against a tough Minnesota defense.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)
Raiders' wretched rush attack vs. Bills' top-flight run D

Last week's last-second victory over the Kansas City Chiefs might have bought the Oakland Raiders some goodwill, but they'll need a much better effort if they hope to extend their fortunes this weekend in Buffalo. The Raiders rode a Michael Crabtree touchdown reception on the last play of the game to a 31-30 triumph over the Chiefs, but if they can't get their running game going, they'll face an uphill battle moving forward - and this will be a tough matchup to make inroads on the ground.

Oakland was forced to do without Marshawn Lynch after the veteran running back was ejected early in Thursday's thrilling victory. And while Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington fared well in his absence, the Raiders still mustered just 88 rushing yards on the evening. Acquiring Lynch was supposed to shore up the running game, but Oakland ranks 24th in rushing yards per game (92.9) and will need to find a way to be more reliant on the ground game in the future.

That future, however, might not start this week. The Bills own one of the most punishing run defenses in football, limiting opposing teams to 84.5 yards per game on the ground. That dominance was on full display in last week's 30-27 win over visiting Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers mustered just 69 yards on 25 carries. Buffalo's 3.4 yards-per-carry-average against is the fourth-best rate among NFL defenses - and with Lynch suspended for Sunday's game, that rate could sink even lower.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, OFF)
Cowboys' red-zone rampage vs. Redskins' defensive doldrums

The Cowboys had been scuffling going into last week's game in San Francisco, but they took out all of their early-season frustrations on the winless 49ers in a 40-10 rout. The Dallas defense still has a long way to go to become Super Bowl-calibre, but it's hard to argue with the assertion that the Cowboys' offense is already there. Dallas has been one of the most dangerous red-zone teams in the league, and will look to continue that downfield dominance against a Washington team struggling to prevent red-zone scores.

Dallas finished with a top-five red-zone touchdown rate last season and has picked up right where it left off, going into Week 8 ranked second in the league in red-zone visits resulting in six points (66.7 percent). Only the Green Bay Packers (73.9 percent) have been better - and with Aaron Rodgers on the shelf indefinitely, it shouldn't be long before the Cowboys own top spot. Ezekiel Elliott has been a major factor in this regard, tied for fourth in the NFL with four rushing touchdowns.

The Redskins' defense struggled all night long in a 34-24 loss in Philadelphia on Monday, and has been one of the most charitable units in football when it comes to red-zone offense. Washington has permitted teams to score touchdowns on 64.7 percent of their trips inside the Redskins' 20-yard line; only Miami, Green Bay and Cleveland have been worse. With Elliott already cleared to play in Week 8, it could be another long day for Washington's beleaguered red-zone defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Detroit Lions (+3, 45)
Steelers' drive-killing prowess vs. Lions' first-down follies

The Steelers might have a claim as the best team in the AFC after rolling to a 29-14 victory over the rival Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh is now 5-2 on the season and appears to have put its early-season drama behind it. Yet, for all the attention paid to the dynamic duo of Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, it has been the Pittsburgh defense that has made the real difference so far - and when it comes to first downs, the Steelers own a decided edge over an inconsistent Lions team.

Pittsburgh has quashed opponents' drives better than almost anyone over the past three games, limiting foes to an average of 12.7 first downs - the second-fewest of any team over that stretch. The Bengals managed a meager 11 first downs in Sunday's loss, which dropped the Steelers' average first downs allowed to 15.4 on the season - behind only the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers, considered two of the top overall defenses in football.

The Detroit offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders quite yet; sure, it produced 38 points in the final game prior to the Week 7 bye, but that was only because the Lions were in catch-up mode for the entire game. Detroit is averaging a modest 18 first downs per game so far, good for 23rd in the league. That leaves the Lions near the middle of the pack in time of possession - another tick in favor of the Steelers, whose drive-killing defense has them ranked third overall in TOP.

**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 08:42 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 8 NFL lines are going to move

The Dolphins and Ravens meet on Thursday night football and thanks to a pair of inept offenses, we've got a total that's as rare as a UFO sighting.

Game to bet now

Minnesota at Cleveland (+9.5)

The Browns went 1-15 in 2016 and it’s possible they’re worse this year.

How bad is it? A Browns promotion to give a prize to one fan went awry when the seat chosen at random was unoccupied. Oh, and their best lineman (tackle Joe Thomas, who hasn’t missed a game since 2007, looks lost for the year with a triceps tear.

Money is already heavy on the Vikings, moving the line a full two points from 7.5. Expect more Minnesota money to change the line even more, so if you like Minnesota, best jump now.

Game to wait on

Dallas at Washington (+1)

Ten of the 16 teams in the NFC, including these two, have either two or three losses. Catching the 6-1 Eagles is hardly out of the question, but this division game is vital for both.

The Cowboys are an early season disappointment, and they’ll have to get their act together immediately to get back in the playoff picture. Dallas plays Kansas City, Atlanta and Philadelphia in its next three games.

Washington, meanwhile, has a slightly easier schedule and would like nothing better than to slap down the ‘Boys and take a giant step toward turning the East into a two-team race with Philadelphia.

Total to watch

Miami at Baltimore (37.5)

Totals this low used to be as rare as UFO sightings recent years but they seem to be coming back.

The Dolphins are the second-lowest-scoring team in the league and their 1-5 record against the over reflects that. Still, there are signs that things might be moving in the right direction.

The Fins have won three in a row they been able to move the ball in their last two games (Atlanta, Jets). Miami (4-2 SU) is in the thick of it in a rejuvenated AFC East. Baltimore’s offense has been all over the map, and inconsistent QB Joe Flacco is being asked questions like “Is the offense completely broken?”

Yikes.

**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 09:36 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, October 26

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MIAMI (4 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 10/26/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 29

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MINNESOTA (5 - 2) vs. CLEVELAND (0 - 7) - 10/29/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 4) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 110-82 ATS (+19.8 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
CAROLINA is 81-49 ATS (+27.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 37-57 ATS (-25.7 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 7) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 1) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 4) at BUFFALO (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-80 ATS (-38.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 5) at CINCINNATI (2 - 4) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA CHARGERS (3 - 4) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 110-80 ATS (+22.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (3 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 2) - 10/29/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 3) at WASHINGTON (3 - 3) - 10/29/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at DETROIT (3 - 3) - 10/29/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 67-43 ATS (+19.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 30

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DENVER (3 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 10/30/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 09:45 AM

NFL

Week 8

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 26

MIAMI @ BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami

Sunday, October 29

MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago

OAKLAND @ BUFFALO
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 11 games at home

INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 11 games on the road
Indianapolis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games

LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New England
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

ATLANTA @ NY JETS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 19 of Atlanta's last 25 games
NY Jets is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games at home

HOUSTON @ SEATTLE
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Seattle is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

DALLAS @ WASHINGTON
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Dallas

PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

Monday, October 30

DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Kansas City is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

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**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 09:48 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's game
Dolphins (4-2) @ Ravens (3-4)— Miami is 4-2 despite trailing five of six games at the half. QB Cutler has multiple cracked ribs; Moore is expected to start, with untested Doughty (WKU) the backup if Cutler doesn’t dress. Moore is 15-13 as an NFL starter, but has started only 3 games since 2011. Dolphins won last three games, by 6-3-3 points; their four wins are by total of 14 points. Baltimore lost four of last five games overall; they won six of last seven series games; they whacked the Dolphins 38-6 here LY; Miami lost its last three visits to Baltimore, by 7-16-32 points. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-2 vs spread; AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5. Under is 5-1 in Dolphin games; over is 4-1 in last five Raven games.

Sunday's games
Vikings (5-2) vs Browns (0-7) (in London)— Kessler is third QB to start for Browns this year; he is 0-8 as an NFL starter, was 26-14 at USC. Cleveland has 18 turnovers (-12) in their last six games; they’re 1-5 vs spread in those games- four of their seven losses are by exactly three points. Minnesota won its last three games, allowing 14.3 pts/game; they’re 1-1 on road, with 26-9 loss at Pittsburgh, 20-17 win in Chicago. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 4-4 vs spread as a favorite away from home— they’re 2-1 vs Cleveland, losing 31-27 at home to Browns in last meeting, in 2013. NFC North teams are 11-8 vs spread outside their division, 3-2 if favored. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 4-2 against the spread.

Bears (3-4) @ Saints (4-2)—New Orleans defense is way improved; Saints won last four games, allowing 6 TD’s on 38 drives, while scoring 3 of their own- they ran ball for 193-161 yards in last two games. NO is +40 in plays run in their last three games. Saints split their two home games. Chicago scored two defensive TD’s early in game LW, then sat on lead; they’re 2-1 in Trubisky starts, winning 27-24 in OT at Baltimore in his only road start. Saints won last three series games by 17-8-16 points; this is first series meeting since 2011, Bears’ first visit here since ’11- they lost last four visits here, with last win in Superdome in 1991. NFC North road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread outside their division; NFC South one favorites are 3-6.

Falcons (3-3) @ Jets (3-4)— Atlanta lost its last three games after a 3-0 start; they’ve got only one takeaway (-6) in last four games. Falcons were 13-33 (39.4%) on 3rd down in last three games; they were 14-30 (46.7%) in first three. Jets lost last two games despite leading both games 14-0; three of their last four games were decided by exactly 3 points. Gang Green is 4-0-1 vs spread in their last five games; they’re 2-1 at home (3-0 vs spread). Atlanta leads this series 6-5; they’re 3-2 in road games against the Jets. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-10 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC East underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 2-0 at home. Last three Falcon games stayed under total; under is 4-3 in Jet games, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-3) @ Buccaneers (2-4)— Carolina lost 17-3 in Chicago LW; both Bear TD’s were scored by defense. Panthers turned ball over six times (-5) in losing last two games after a 4-1 start; they’re 3-1 on road. Carolina is -8 in turnovers in its three losses, -1 in its four wins. Bucs lost last three games, by 5-5-3 points, giving up 30-38 points in last two games- they’re 2-1 at home, with only home loss 19-14 to Patriots. Tampa Bay swept Carolina 17-14/17-16 LY, after losing previous six series games; Panthers won three of last four visits here. Five of last seven series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Over is 3-1 in last four Carolina games, 4-1 in Buccaneers’ last five games.

49ers (0-7) @ Eagles (6-1)— Philly is on serious roll, but lost LT Peters for year Monday, a big blow to offense. Eagles won last five games, covered last four; they’re 11-9 vs spread in last 20 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year, with home wins by 3-27-10. Iggles allowed 23+ points in five of their last six games. 49ers are 0-7, but 4-3 vs spread; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs, with road losses by 3-3-3-2 points. SF was outscored 37-10 in first half of their last two games. Niners won last two series games by 1-5 points; teams split last four meetings played here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-5 vs spread; NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. Over is 4-1 in 49ers’ last five games.

Raiders (3-4) @ Bills (4-2)— Buffalo is 4-2 with a +10 turnover ratio; Bills are 3-0 at home, with wins by 9-10-3 points. Buffalo is 22-42 on 3rd down in its last three games. Oakland snapped 4-game skid with Thursday win over Chiefs, has three extra days to prep; Raiders are 1-2 on road, losing 27-10/16-10 at Washington/Denver in last two road tilts- their last two games were both decided by a point. Home side won last six series games; Oakland lost 24-23/38-35 in last two visits here- Raiders’ last win in Buffalo was in ’02. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East home favorites are 1-3-1 against the spread. Under is 4-2 in Buffalo games, 3-0 in Raider road games.

Colts (2-5) @ Bengals (2-4)— Indy is 0-3 on road, losing by 35-28-14 points (0-3 vs spread); four of their five losses are by 14+ points- they’ve been outscored 134-44 in second half of games this year, have one TD on 19 drives in last two games. Bengals were held to 179 yards in 29-14 loss at Pittsburgh LW; they allowed 7-16 points in their two wins, are 0-3 when giving up more than 16 points. Cincy ran ball for only 74 yards/game in their last three games. Colts are 9-2 in last 11 series games; last meeting was 26-10 Indy win in 2014 playoff game. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. AFC North favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 2-3 if at home. Under is 4-2 in Bengal games, 2-5 in Indy games.

Chargers (3-4) @ Patriots (4-2)— Chargers won last three games after an 0-4 start; they’re 3-0 vs spread as a road underdog, losing by 3 at Denver, winning SU at Giants/Raiders. Last five TD’s Chargers allowed all came on plays of 23+ yards. Patriots won last three games, by 5-7-16 points; they’re 1-3 vs spread as home favorite this year. NE stayed under their team total the last four weeks. Bolts lost last three series games, by 3-14-9 points; they lost last three visits to to Foxboro by 24-9-14 points- their last win was in ’05. AFC West underdogs are 4-0 vs spread outside their division, 3-0 on road. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread. Last three Patriot games, last two Charger games stayed under the total.

Texans (3-3) @ Seahawks (4-2)— Houston won/covered five of its last six post-bye games; they scored 33+ points in last four games, with rookie QB Watson under center. Texans are 2-0 as a road dog- the two games were decided by total of 7 points- this is their first road game in over a month. Seahawks won/covered their last three games; they’re 2-0 at home, allowing two TD’s on 22 drives, but those games were against 49ers/Colts. Seattle is 2-1 in this series, winning 42-10 in Texans’ only visit here, in 2005; Seahawks won last meeting in OT in ’13. AFC South road teams are 2-4 vs spread, 2-2 as road dogs. NFC West teams are 7-10 vs spread outside their division, 2-1 as a home fave. Under is 4-2 in Seattle games, 0-4 in last four Texan games.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Redskins (3-3)— Dallas allowed 3-17-10 points in its three wins, 42-35-35 in its three losses; they’re 2-1 on road- since 2014, they’re 9-4 vs spread as a road favorite. Cowboys have 611 rushing yards in their last three games. Short week for Washington after physical loss to Iggles Monday night; Redskins scored 20+ points in last five games, are 2-1 at home- they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine games as a home underdog. Road team won six of last seven series games; Dallas is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning last four visits here, by 1-27-3-4 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 vs spread. Four of last five Dallas games went over total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Redskin games.

Steelers (5-2) @ Lions (3-3)— Detroit won/covered its last five post-bye games; they were dog in 3 of the 5 games. Lions lost three of last four games overall; their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in last game, a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Detroit is 1-2 at home; all three games went over the total. Pittsburgh is 3-1 on road, allowing 15.8 pts/game; all four games stayed under total. Pitt is 4-0 when they run ball for 100+ yards. Steelers won four in row, 12 of last 14 games vs Detroit; they won 28-20 in last visit here, in ’09. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-5 vs spread, 0-2 on road. NFC North non-divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in last four Detroit games.

Monday's game
Broncos (3-3) @ Chiefs (5-2)— KC lost its last two games after a 5-0 start; they ran ball for average of 156.2 ypg in their five wins, 28-94 yards in their two losses. Broncos held five of six opponents to 80 or less rushing yards. Denver is 0-2 on road, losing 26-16 to Bills, 16-0 to Chargers; in their last four games, Broncos scored 3 TD’s on 45 drives- they ran ball 36 times for 115 yards in last two games. Denver scored 19 points on their last nine red zone drives- not good. Chiefs won last three series games, by 16-3-23 points; Denver won five of its last six visits to Arrowhead. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-9-2 against the spread. Over is 4-1-2 in Chief games, 0-3 in last three Denver games.

**Udog** · 10-25-2017, 10:54 AM

NFL Week 8 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored 53 points in the previous four games. How will the Silver and Black do against the Bills vaunted defense?

Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 37.5)

Being on neutral ground, the offshore opener of Minnesota -7.5 was quickly devoured by those sharp bettors who were expecting higher, like myself. I made this at least -10.5 bordering -11 from the get-go.

Minnesota has quickly become a defensive force in the league allowing 17, 14, 17, 10 and 16 points in its last five games. That stop unit going against a Cleveland offense that is struggling mightily, scoring 7, 14, 17 and nine points in the past four weeks, appears to be good reason that the difference between these two will easily cover any betting number out there up and including the closing line. The Vikings’ point total has improved in three straight weeks. The Browns are losing by an average of over 16 points per game in their last four weeks and nearly by 9.5 for the season.

If you were hedging like most of us early in the betting, taking the Vikings now, instead of later, would be the wise move. Cleveland backers, all two of you, would best benefit by waiting this one out and checking back later to grab a potential double-digit number to your liking. Being that the perception that a difference of 10 is a key number (which it really isn’t), I don’t see this getting maximum play on Minnesota too consistently once it gets that high. Chances of this going over 10 points are minimal.

My strategy here also involves the fact that this is a “special” game, we might not see a letdown by the favored Vikings in a spot like this. Now at 5-2, the last thing Minnesota needs is a closely-fought game in which I am sure they have marked as a notch in the win column. If Cleveland had any talent, particularly at the quarterback position, they could surprise and stay close. But this is certainly not the case.

Insight into Vegas' opening odds and early sharp action for NFL Week 8 betting
There are some very interesting matchups on the NFL Week 8 schedule and we get the story behind those odds from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn Las Vegas, who gives his insight into the opening lines and early action.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 45.5)

Oakland comes to Buffalo for what has become quite a shootout whenever these two teams’ cross paths. I absolutely agreed with the offshore opener of the Bills -3, but early betting has been on the Raiders, partly due to the stunning (and home field advantage) victory over the Chiefs this past week.

Before that, the Raiders were slipping into an abyss that was quickly putting an end to their season. I made this around Buffalo -3 (-120), looking at how the Bills are performing at home this season. In fact, home field has been a huge play between these two as the home team has won six straight times.

Before this past week, Oakland’s offense had scored a mere 53 points in the previous four games. Buffalo has had one of the best “points against” defenses in the NFL all year long. The Bills are playing well, playing better at home, and are feeding off their underdog status. They seem to have the emotional edge in this game.

As an oddsmaker, where my suggestions to bookmakers with parlay cards were under the microscope, I have always deemed the early movement downward to be a set-up for the casinos to print up their cards south of the key 3. A little money early in the week will turn out to be much larger the other way come kickoff. If you like Buffalo, don’t expect this number to drop off much more. The early money did its job. If you like Oakland, I firmly believe you will see 3’s hit the board again come game day so you might want to sit this out until the weekend to play.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44)

I made this game more of a toss-up, closer to Tampa Bay either a pick or -1 at best. I understand Carolina’s awful play against the Bears in Chicago this past weekend, but the Panthers were coming off a tough three-game stretch against some quality opponents and when they found themselves down by two touchdowns off turnovers.

The Bears were able to crank up the defense in a position of power and keep the Carolina offense at bay. The fact that the Bears mustered just three points of offense all day themselves has me thinking that we need to throw that game out and look at this matchup with new eyes.

Tampa Bay has lost four of the last five games. It’s given up just under 30 points per game during that span. Though Tampa Bay did score 27 points off a monster day by QB Jameis Winston, it came against a Bills secondary that was hit with multiple injuries to their cornerbacks during the game.

Tampa Bay doesn’t look to be too strong of a force the rest of the way while Carolina, currently in second place, needs this game to not only to wipe away the unpleasant taste of last week’s results, but firmly entrench themselves in the NFC playoff picture. At this point, there’s a huge difference between 5-3 and 4-4.

I don’t see this number heading up any time soon during the course of this week. I see a strong play on the dog where bettors are planning to see a bounce back game by the Panthers in a totally winnable game. Grab as many points as you can if you’re backing the Panthers. Wait until game day if you like the Buccaneers and be prepared to only lay a point or two max at that time.

**Udog** · 10-26-2017, 07:48 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 26

Miami @ Baltimore

Game 101-102
October 26, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.150
Baltimore
130.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
37
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3); Over

Sunday, October 29

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Game 251-252
October 29, 2017 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
130.722
Cleveland
126.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10 1/2); Over

Chicago @ New Orleans

Game 253-254
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.256
New Orleans
143.244
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-8 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ NY Jets

Game 255-256
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
135.970
NY Jets
125.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-4); Under

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 257-258
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.155
Tampa Bay
130.857
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Philadelphia

Game 259-260
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
125.974
Philadelphia
135.842
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13); Over

Oakland @ Buffalo

Game 261-262
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.705
Buffalo
132.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3); Under

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati

Game 263-264
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.022
Cincinnati
130.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 7
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 11
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Under

LA Chargers @ New England

Game 265-266
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.983
New England
140.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Under

Houston @ Seattle

Game 267-268
October 29, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
134.180
Seattle
144.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5); Under

Dallas @ Washington

Game 269-270
October 29, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.888
Washington
134.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Detroit

Game 271-272
October 29, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.222
Detroit
136.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under

Monday, October 30

Denver @ Kansas City

Game 273-274
October 30, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.392
Kansas City
138.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7); Over

**Udog** · 10-26-2017, 07:51 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 26

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Thursday Night Football betting preview and odds: Dolphins at Ravens
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Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 37)

Journeyman Matt Moore is fresh off a brilliant comeback performance and now will serve as the starting quarterback when the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. Moore came off the bench after Jay Cutler suffered multiple cracked ribs on Sunday to rally Miami from a 14-point deficit and record a 31-28 victory over the New York Jets.

Moore threw two touchdown passes during a 17-point fourth quarter and brings a more boisterous approach than the introverted Cutler, who could miss multiple contests. "It's an emotional game and I'm an emotional player," Moore told reporters on Tuesday, two days prior to making his 29th career regular-season start. "It's always better when you're having fun. When you're kicking the dirt, that's not the way to do your job. So I try to have a good time." Miami has won three straight games, so it is experiencing better times than the Ravens, who have allowed an average of 27.6 points while losing four of their last five contests. "I wouldn't say it's a must-win," Baltimore safety Eric Weddle told reporters, "but it's definitely a big-time game that we need to try and do everything in our power to win."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Despite all the troubles of the Ravens offense, oddsmakers are still giving them the edge at home, setting the line at Baltimore -3. The line has yet to move off the opening number. The total hit the board at a very low 37.5 and has actually moved down further to the current number of 37.

POWER RANKINGS:[/B] Dolphins (1.5) - Ravens (3.5) + home field (-3) = Ravens -1

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Its going to be hard for the Dolphins and Ravens to match the excitement of last Thursday's Chiefs-Raiders thriller. That doesn't mean its not going to be an interesting game though. The Dolphins come in as the hotter team but the Ravens may well be the hungrier one. I had projected this line to be exactly where it is, so don't find a whole lot of value with the side. If the line moves off three, I'll be taking a closer look. Getting the Ravens at less than -3 (doubtful) would provide some value, while the Dolphins would start looking more interesting if the line climbed above four." - Ben Burns

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - QB Jay Cutler (Out Thursday, ribs), DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Anthony Steen (Questionable Thursday, foot), DE Andre Branch (Questionable Thursday, groin), WR DeVante Parker (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Mike Pouncey (Probable Thursday, knee), T Ja'Wuan James (Probable Thursday, hand), TE Julius Thomas (Probable Thursday, knee), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable Thursday, knee), T Laremy Tunsil (Probable Thursday, knee).

Ravens - S Eric Weddle (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Questionable Thursday, knee), S Tony Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable Thursday, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable Thursday, achilles), DB Anthony Levine (Questionable Thursday, back), WR Michael Campanaro (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR Chris Matthews (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Mike Wallace (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR Breshad Perriman (Questionable Thursday, concussion), TE Maxx Williams (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Tim Williams (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB Terrance West (Questionable Thursday, calf), TE Benjamin Watson (Probable Thursday, knee).

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Running back Jay Ajayi (442 yards) is saddled with a 3.5-yard average that is well below the 4.9 mark of last season's breakthrough campaign, but he will have a shot at posting his third 100-yard performance of the year against a Baltimore squad that ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense (145.3 yards per game). Moore will try to pump life into a sagging offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.3 points) and dead last in total offense (261.8 yards) as well as try to make a downfield threat out of receiver Jarvis Landry, who is averaging just 8.1 yards on 45 receptions. Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded six sacks after posting 2.5 against the Jets, but the defense has made only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense (18.8 points) and 28th in total offense (277.6 yards) while quarterback Joe Flacco has been an underwhelming performer with five touchdown tosses and eight interceptions. "I have to be more consistent," Flacco told reporters. "That is the name of this game. In order to win the majority of your games, you have to play consistent, and you still probably are going to lose a couple." Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (team-best 4.5 sacks) is expected to play through a knee injury, while cornerback Brandon Carr has recorded a club-leading three interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Dolphins last nine Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split on this matchup, with 53 percent of bettors giving the Ravens a slight edge. The total is even closer with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.

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**Udog** · 10-29-2017, 08:31 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 8 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -2 (745)

5) Los Angeles Chargers, +7 (746)

4) Atlanta Falcons, -4.5 (766)

3) Seattle Seahawks, -5.5 (797)

2) New Orleans Saints, -9 (801)

1) Carolina Panthers, -2 (745)

Season record of top 6 picks: 15-27

**Udog** · 10-29-2017, 09:15 AM

Essential Week 8 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas and the Seattle Seahawks have outscored opponents 63-3 in the second halves of their last three games. Will the trend continue against the Houston Texans?

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 38)

The Vikings defense is elite however you want to slice it. Minny’s stopper is allowing just 3.4 third down conversions per game (fewest in the league) and 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game – good for the second best mark in the league.

That doesn’t bode well for the Browns who are dead last in points scored per game at a measly 14.7.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Browns getting as few as 7.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 10 points at some shops; others have the Vikings giving 9.5. The total opened at 37.5 and was bet up to 38.

TRENDS:

*The under is 11-4 in the Browns’ last 15 games.
*The Browns are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with winning records.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13, 46)

Losing left tackle Jason Peters is a big blow to the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s been one of the best tackles in the game for years and Pro Football Focus graded him as their top offensive tackle after the first six weeks of the season.

The Eagles lead the league in third down conversions per game at 7.1 and no quarterback in the league has a better passing rating on third down than Carson Wentz’s 133.1. Will he have as much time without the best tackle in football blocking his blindside?

LINE HISTORY: Some locations opened with this spread as low as 10 points but bettors quickly jumped on the chance to fade the 49ers. Most shops now have the Eagles favored by 13 points. The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 46.

TRENDS:

*The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last six games and 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five games.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 46)

The Panthers are coming off a loss in which their opponent gained just five first downs and made only seven pass attempts. It’s fair to say Carolina’s offense needs to pick up the slack.
Cam Newton and Company has produced just one play over 20 yards in the last two games and the rushing attack has just one running play over 16 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened as low as 44 and can now be found at some locations at 46. No real movement on the spread as we enter the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against NFC South opponents.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9, 47.5)

You’ve got to wonder how the Bears are just a game under .500 with an offense built on smoke and mirrors. The Bears have passed the ball on just 35 percent of their offensive snaps over their last three games and averaging just 158.6 yards through the air per game – down from 248 yards per game they produced in 2016.

Chicago is on a two-game winning streak and owns a 6-2 edge in turnover margin in those two games.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point chalk and are now listed as 9-point faves. The total is hanging between 47.5 and 48 defending on the shop.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 12-3-1 in the Saints’ last 16 home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-11, 41.5)

Turnovers are a problem in Cincinnati and it’s not just that Andy Dalton is coughing up the ball too much. It actually has to do with a defense that’s been unlucky when it comes to generating turnovers.

The Bengals have just four takeaways in six games, putting them in a tie for the second fewest in the league. They’ve yet to recover an opponent’s fumble and they had only three takeaways on fumble recoveries a year ago.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Bengals -10 and there are a few locations that bumped up the spread to -11. The total opened at 41 and is now as high as 42 at some books.

TRENDS:

*The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
*The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
*The under is 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 games overall.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7, 48)

The key to the Chargers’ three-game win streak has been their powerful pass rush. San Diego sits at No. 4 in the league in sacks at 23 and 11 of those have come in the team’s last three games. Edge rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa account for 16 of those 23 QB takedowns.

The Pats offensive lines have had some bad games this season – particularly right tackle Nate Solder. Tom Brady has been sacked 18 times in seven games this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 7-point faves and a few shops have added a hook to make it -7.5. The total opened at 49 and there are few locations dealing 48 now.

TRENDS:

*Tom Brady is 6-0 SU in six career meetings vs. Philip Rivers.
*The Patriots are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.
*The over is 8-3 in the Pats’ last 11 games overall.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+6, 44.5)

What is going on with the Falcons and the AFC East? Atlanta will play an opponent from the AFC East for a fourth consecutive week and will try to snap a three-game losing streak. The Bills, Dolphins and Patriots all held the Falcons’ explosive offense to 17 or fewer points.

Head coach Dan Quinn talked this week about how his offense needs to get back to running the football more. Atlanta averaged 26.2 rush attempts per game last season and are averaging 23.3 attempts per game this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened as 4.5-point home underdogs and bettors have been back the Dirty Birds. Atlanta is now giving 6 points at most shops. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away dates.
*The over is 18-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 26 games.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46.5)

The Raiders will be without starting running back Marshawn Lynch against the Bills. Lynch was suspended a game for pushing a referee during his team’s Week 7 win against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bills traded a big-name player for the second time this season. Buffalo hasn’t missed WR Sammy Watkins since it shipped him to the Los Angeles Rams and it appears it feels the same about DT Marcell Dareus. The former high first round draft pick was shipped to Jacksonville for a sixth round draft pick. Dareus was being used as a rotational player on the Bills’ defensive line this season.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)

Attention second half and live bettors: The Seattle Seahawks are crushing their opposition in the final two quarters. Seattle has outscored its opponents 53-9 in the fourth quarter this season and has shutout the Giants and Rams after halftime. Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents in the third and fourth quarters 63-3.

LINE HISTORY: Many offshore locations opened with the Texans getting 5.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 6.5 at most shops heading into the weekend. The total opened at 42 and has been bet up to 45.5 and even 46.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
*The over is 4-0 in Houston’s last four games.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2, 47.5)

The Redskins’ offensive line is banged up heading into Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. Left guard Shawn Lauvao was the only starting O-lineman able to practice on Thursday. Head coach Jay Gruden says he’s most pessimistic about the chances of starting center Spencer Long to play this weekend. Washington would be forced to start rookie Chase Roullier at center if Long can’t play.

LINE HISTORY: The line has sat most of the week with Washington getting 2 or 2.5 points. The total opened at 50.5 and has been bet down to as low as 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)

The Lions need a jumpstart to their offense and they need it quickly. Detroit’s defense ranks seventh in Football Outsiders DVOA but the offense is among the league’s worst in yards per game. No. 1 receiver Golden Tate is questionable to play in the game after injured his shoulder in Week 6 against the Saints. Tate leads the Lions in catches with 36 and receiving yards with 363.

LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed at Lions +3 all week and the total is hanging around 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
*The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
*The under is 20-6 in the Steelers last 26 road games.

**Udog** · 10-29-2017, 09:15 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 29

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Steelers at Lions
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hopes to leave his penchant for throwing interceptions this season in his rear-view mirror on Sunday night, when he faces the aggressive defense of the Detroit Lions. Roethlisberger has answered a five-interception performance with efficient showings in back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati.

"They're very opportunistic, a lot of turnovers. ... Doesn't seem like a ball that's in the air ever hits the ground," Roethlisberger told reporters of the Lions, who have forced an NFL third-best 14 turnovers - including nine interceptions. Roethlisberger would be wise to lean on former Michigan State star Le'Veon Bell, who has amassed at least 180 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games. Detroit's Matthew Stafford took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries while also soothing his mind after getting intercepted three times in a 52-38 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 15. "I needed to take care of myself physically and mentally refresh, get away for a little bit and think about something other than football for a couple days," Stafford told reporters.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3) - Lions (0) + home field (-3) = Pick’em.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as field goal home dogs and money on the home team briefly brought the number down to +2.5 before returning to the opening number Saturday. The total opened at 45 and bet up as high as 47 before fading down to 45.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'The bye week came at a good time for Lions after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Detroit will be rested and focused for this primetime national TV home game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh enters in a more difficult scheduling situation as the Steelers are playing their eighth straight game without a bye after two emotional conference wins versus the Chiefs and Bengals.' Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: The tiny bit of sharp money we've taken has been on the underdog, which isn't surprising, while the public is heavily backing the Steelers. The public pounding Pittsburgh is the only reason we've moved back to the opener. We do anticipate some more sharp action on the dog, but not sure it will be enough to offset the favorite liability. Over has been a big smart play and the squares will get on that train tomorrow as well. More than 75 percent of the money on the over. Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Probable, Concussion), OT Marcus Gilbert (Questionable, Hamstring), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Knee), DE Stephon Tuitt (Out, Back), WR Martavis Bryant (Out Indefinitely, Disciplinary).

Lions - WR Golden Tate (Probable, Shoulder), LB Paul Worrilow (Probable, Knee), S Glover Quin (Probable, Concussion), RB Dwayne Washington (Probable, Quadricep), G T.J. Lang (Probable, Back), QB Matthew Stafford (Probable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Doubtful, Ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (Out, Hamstring), OT Corey Robinson (Questionable Week 10, Foot).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 1-6 O/U): Antonio Brown continues to reign supreme among all wide receivers, leading the league with 52 catches for 765 yards. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster likely will get the start in place of disgruntled wideout Martavis Bryant, who was demoted to the practice squad and ruled out of Sunday's contest. Smith-Schuster has gone as far as to say he'd give Roethlisberger his game check - approximately $27,000 - should the quarterback join himself, Brown, Bell and others as part of a choreographed celebration. "The ultimate celebration is to get Ben in there," Smith-Schuster told reporters. "If Ben gets in there, I'll give Ben my next check. Obviously, he doesn't need it."

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Golden Tate was spotted with his right arm in a sling last week as he dealt with a shoulder injury, but the determined wideout remains intent on playing versus Pittsburgh. The 29-year-old practiced this week - at least during individual drills - and looks to continue his strong showing at home, as he has registered at least five receptions in each of his last six games at Ford Field. Running back Theo Riddick's 23 catches trail only Tate on the team, although wideout Marvin Jones Jr. has five receptions of 20-or-more yards this season. Rookie Kenny Golladay is battling a hamstring injury but is expected to return to play his first game in over a month.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Steelers at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 63 percent of the totals action

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**Udog** · 10-30-2017, 08:25 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 8 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -2 (745)- W

5) Los Angeles Chargers, +7 (746)- L

4) Atlanta Falcons, -4.5 (766)- W

3) Seattle Seahawks, -5.5 (797)- L

2) New Orleans Saints, -9 (801)- L

1) Carolina Panthers, -2 (745)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 18-30

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……

13) Seahawks 41, Texans 38— Both teams averaged over 10 yards/pass attempt, Watson threw for 402 yards and four TD’s- he ran for 63 yards, but it wasn’t enough. Wilson threw for 451 yards in a wild game where four WR’s caught 100+ yards worth of passes.

Seattle scored the winning TD with 0:21 left. Houston threw at Richard Sherman and scored 38 points; curious to see if other teams try that more- other teams don’t have DeAndre Hopkins.

12) Steelers 20, Lions 15— Detroit gained 482 yards but lost- that is the 3rd-highest yardage total in NFL history without scoring a touchdown in that game. Lions had the ball five times in the red zone- they kicked three FG’s, lost ball on downs twice.

Matthew Stafford is really good, but now he is 54-62 in his 9th NFL season- he hasn’t missed a start since 2010, but has played in only three playoff games (0-3)- his head coaches have been Jim Schwartz and Jim Caldwell. Safe to say that Detroit is wasting his prime.

11) Vikings 33, Browns 16— USC-Arizona State game ended at 2:20am here in the east. Just when I was going to bed, discovered live golf on TV from…..I don’t know where the hell it was but it was live so I watched it, eliminating any chance of me getting out of bed at 9:30 to watch the Cleveland Browns play.

If I owned the Browns, I’d demand to know why we didn’t draft Deshaun Watson, then when I got my answer, I’d fire the person/people who decided not to draft him.

10) Patriots 21, Chargers 13— Bolts’ WR Travis Benjamin caught a TD pass, but he also had one of the worst punt returns in NFL history, losing 11 yards on a return that resulted in a safety for New England that put the Patriots up 9-7 early n the 2nd quarter.

New England scored only one TD, but they kicked four FG’s and won their 4th straight game.

9) Cowboys 33, Redskins 19— Washington’s offensive line is decimated by injuries; they had three new starters on the line in this game and were playing on a short week, after losing to the Eagles Monday night.

Dallas ran the ball for 169 yards on a miserable, rainy night- they were +2 (3-1) in turnovers.

8) Arizona 59, Washington State 38— Stats for Wazzu’s two QB’s in their upset loss Saturday:

Luke Falk 13-23, 93 yards, one TD
Tyler Hilinski 45-61, 509 yards, 2 TD’s, 4 INT

A kid who DIDN’T START the game threw 61 passes. Meanwhile, Arizona ran 51 plays the whole game, but for 584 yards.

7) Saints 20, Bears 12— Chicago TE Zach Miller caught what appeared to be a TD pass and then tore up his leg— he was writhing in pain in the end zone, but replay review overturned the call— FOX analyst Dean Blandino was surprised to say the least that it wasn’t a TD.

Who knew that eight weeks into the season, the New Orleans defense would be a strength?

6) Falcons 25, Jets 20— Jets are 3-5, lost close games the last three weeks; they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 2.

Much of this game was played in a driving rainstorm; Falcons are a dome team that relies on speed/passing, but they overcame an 11-yard deficit in field position to snap its 3-game losing skid. Atlanta outgained the Jets by 107 yards; Gang Green led 17-13 at halftime.

5) Bills 34, Raiders 14— Buffalo was +4 in turnovers, had a 14-yard edge in field position- thru seven games, they are now +14 for the season in turnovers. Week 2 in Carolina was the only game this season where the Bills didn’t win the turnover battle (0-0). Say what you want about Tyrod Taylor, but he doesn’t screw games up by turning the ball over.

Oakland lost five of its last six games, including its last three on the road.

4) Bengals 24, Colts 23— Indy scored a TD, kicked three FG’s on four red zone drives; they had the ball with 7:00 left and a 23-17 lead, but Carlos Dunlap picked off a swing pass foe the winning pick-6, as the Colts lost their third game in a row.

Indianapolis is 2-6; their offense has had 91 drives this season, scoring 13 TD’s- they’ve given up five TD’s to opposing defenses.

3) Eagles 33, 49ers 10— Someone explain to me why the 49ers fired Jim Harbaugh- they lost last two games by a combined score of 73-20, are playing a kid at QB who wasn’t even good at Iowa. Niners are 7-32 since they let Harbaugh walk.

2) Panthers 17, Buccaneers 3— Tampa Bay turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 4.7 yards/pass attempt— this is a team with Mike Evans/DeSean Jackson at WR, they should never score 3 points in a game. Ever. Bucs have now lost four games in a row— not sure if QB Winston is the problem, but if you watched Hard Knocks this summer, you know the coach/GM expected to be a hell of a lot better than 2-5.

1) Astros 13, Dodgers 12 (10)— Possibly the strangest major league game ever played, no doubt the craziest postseason game ever. Took over five hours to play; Alex Bregman got the winning hit.

When the Dodgers were up 4-0 with Kershaw on the mound, if you wanted to bet on LA via in-game wagering at that point, you needed to lay $1,500 to win $100. Dodgers took Kershaw out after 4.2 innings with a 7-4 lead and two men on, and it cost them.

Astros led 12-9 in ninth inning, blew that lead; crazy game with lot of bad pitching. Series heads to LA with Houston leading 3-2 and Justin Verlander pitching Game 6 Tuesday.

**Udog** · 10-30-2017, 08:29 AM

NFL

Monday, October 30

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Broncos at Chiefs
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 43)

The Kansas City Chiefs reigned supreme in clashes against their AFC West brethren with 12 straight wins before last week's setback in Oakland. The Chiefs look to avenge that defeat and end an overall two-game losing skid on Monday night when they welcome the return of their franchise's all-time leading rusher in Jamaal Charles and the Denver Broncos.

Kansas City has its own dynamic back in rookie Kareem Hunt, who is the only player in NFL history to start his career with seven straight 100-yard scrimmage games. Hunt, who leads the league in yards rushing (717) and is second in yards per carry (5.78), rolled up 117 yards from scrimmage (87 yards rushing, 30 receiving) in a 31-30 loss to the Raiders on Oct. 19. Like the Chiefs, the Broncos have also lost two straight to bring themselves back to the pack in the suddenly congested division heading into Charles' return to Arrowhead Stadium. "I'll always be a Chief ... I have so much history (there)," said the 30-year-old Charles, who needs 44 yards from scrimmage to reach 10,000 for his career. "Lot of sad memories, lot of happy memories. At the end of the day, I'm just going out there to play football."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (1) - Chiefs (-4) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -6

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point home chalk and briefly went down to an even -7 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 42 and was quickly bet up to 44 and steadily been fading to the current number of 42.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Broncos - TE A.J. Derby (Questionable, Shoulder), DE Derek Wolfe (Questionable, Hand), TE Virgil Green (Questionable, Shoulder), S Will Parks (Questionable, Shoulder), QB Paxton Lynch (Questionable, Shoulder), WR Cody Latimer (Questionable, Knee), OT Menelik Watson (Questionable, Calf), WR Emmanuel Sanders (Questionable, Ankle), WR Isaiah McKenzie (Questionable, Ankle), OT Donald Stephenson (Questionable, Calf), LB Todd Davis (Out Indefinitely, Ankle), LB Shane Ray (Probable, Wrist).

Chiefs - OL Mitch Morse (Probable, Foot), RB Charcandrick West (Probable, Concussion), LB Justin Houston (Questionable, Knee), OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), OL Parker Ehinger (Out Indefinitely, Knee), LB Dadi Nicolas (Questionable, Knee), LB Tamba Hali (Questionable, Knee), DB Steven Nelson (Questionable Week 9, Abdominal).

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U): Trevor Siemian became the talk of the town following Denver's disastrous 21-0 setback to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the conversation was anything but positive after the team's first shutout loss in a quarter-century. "I have to play better. It starts with me," the second-year starter said. "... Guys are frankly embarrassed with what we put out there last Sunday. We have to play better. I have to play better. Everybody knows that." C.J. Anderson has been held in check after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, as he totaled just 61 on the ground over the last two.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U): Alex Smith is shedding the "game manager" label that has followed him around for the majority of his career in favor of perhaps another title: mid-season NFL MVP candidate. The top overall pick of the 2005 draft eclipsed 300 yards passing and three touchdowns for the third time this season to give him 15 scoring strikes and no interceptions. Trusted target Travis Kelce found the end zone last week versus the Raiders and has reeled in at least one reception in 55 consecutive contests. Kelce gashed the Broncos for season highs in catches (11) and receiving yards (160) with a touchdown in a 33-10 victory last Christmas.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

* Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

* Under is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 games following a ATS loss.

* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home fave Chiefs are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 54 percent of the totals selections.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 ( Thur., Oct. 26 - Mon., Oct. 30 )

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 8 ( Thur., Oct. 26 - Mon., Oct. 30 )

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