NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 ( Thur., Oct. 12 - Mon., Oct. 16 )

[BettorsChat]

The #Broncos are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games after a bye & 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games after a bye overall.

The total has gone OVER in the #Raiders last six games at home. The average combined score in these games was 57.7.

The #Colts are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the #Titans.

In 18 career regular season games vs the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has 39 TDs and 6 INTs with a 112.1 QB Rating.

[Udog]

NFL teaser lovers rejoice. Double-digit faves are 45-8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons when teased 10 points. There's 5 on the Week 6 board.

Man, that's a real tip! Thanks, Monte!

[Udog]

The #Colts are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the #Titans.

I was looking kinda hard at the Titans today but this one is a little too strong to go against.

[Udog]

Sharp betting action causing plenty of line movement for NFL Week 6
Patrick Everson

A team with preseason expectations of contending for a Super Bowl bid meets the NFL’s lone remaining undefeated team to highlight Week 6 Sunday. Patrick Everson checks in on the action with Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -6; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -4

Kansas City is making believers of bettors both sharp and square, with its 5-0 SU and ATS record this season. Alex Smith and the Chiefs went to Houston as 2-point favorites in Week 5 and left with a 42-34 victory.

Pittsburgh hasn’t looked the role of a Super Bowl contender thus far, and that was especially apparent last week. The Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) lost to Jacksonville 30-9 as a 7.5-point home chalk.

“The sharps and public (were) absolutely running to the windows to back Kansas City,” Bernanke said of early activity at CG Technology books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Strip. “What a difference one week can make. Pittsburgh looking terrible last week at home against Jacksonville. It looks like everybody’s soured on them.”

The line surged from 4.5 to 6 for just a few minutes Thursday morning. However, once that line got to 6, Bernanke said sharps began buying back on the Steelers, helping push that line down to 3.5 by Saturday night, before it ticked back up to 4. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET.

Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -12.5

Defending NFC champion Atlanta returns from a bye week, following its first loss of the season. The Falcons (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) stubbed their toe at home in Week 4, tumbling to Buffalo 23-17 as an 8-point fave.

Miami (2-2 SU and ATS) is coming off a win, but bettors clearly aren’t convinced. The Dolphins beat visiting Tennessee 16-10 in a pick ‘em game in Week 5.

“Miami's offense has been offensive to watch nearly all season. Dolphins fans were yelling, ‘We Want Moore,’ as in Matt Moore,” instead of Jay Cutler, Jerome said.

TopBet.eu saw sharp action on Atlanta to move the line from 10.5 to 11.5 Tuesday, and further Falcons play pushed it to 12.5 on Thursday.

“Sixty-eight percent of cash and 65 percent of bets are on the Falcons,” Jerome said of action for this 1 p.m. ET matchup.

New England Patriots at New York Jets – Open: -9.5; Move: None

New England hasn’t really looked like the defending Super Bowl champion, but could still find itself atop the AFC East by day’s end. The Patriots (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) held off Tampa Bay 19-14 as a 3.5-point chalk in the Week 5 Thursday nighter, so they come in with a little more rest.

New York was supposed to be a hound’s breakfast this year, yet has won three in a row on the field and at the betting window to stand 3-2 SU and ATS. Last week, the Jets edged Cleveland 17-14 as a 1.5-point road favorite.

“I didn’t think this would be a very interesting game a few weeks ago,” Bernanke said of this 1 p.m. ET contest. “Right now, the line is 9.5 and holding. No one’s really shown their hand in this game. A little bit of sharp money on the Jets, nothing to write home about. The public of course is on New England, but again, they’re not too sure.

“Tom Brady’s (non-throwing) shoulder – you know how the Patriots are with their injury reports. It’s always hush-hush. And people aren’t sold on the Jets yet, either.”

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -4.5

New Orleans, coming off a bye week, will look to stretch its win streak to three games. The Saints (2-2 SU and ATS) blanked Miami 20-0 laying 4 points on the road in Week 4.

Detroit (3-2 SU and ATS) has been in every game this season, with its two losses by a combined seven points. That includes last week’s setback to Carolina, with the Lions losing 27-24 giving 2 points at home.

“Eight times more money is coming in on New Orleans on account,” Bernanke said of activity through Thursday. “So the sharp bettors were all over New Orleans. But the public will gladly take the 5 points with Detroit. This is shaping up to be a real Pros vs. Joes game.”

In fact, the Joes helped reel this line back down to 4 on Friday, before it ticked back up to 4.5 Saturday for this 1 p.m. ET meeting.

TopBet.eu also opened New Orleans -3.5 and saw sharp action help move the number to 6 before it slid back to 4.5.

“This seems to be a matchup of two teams trending in different directions,” Jerome said. “Now having traded Adrian Peterson to Arizona, the Saints are in a much better place offensively. Running back Alvin Kamara is a perfect fit for a Sean Payton offense, as he is such a skilled receiver as well.

“Tough injury news this week for Detroit, as defensive lineman Haloti Ngata was placed on the IR on Thursday, and Matt Stafford isn’t 100 percent, listed as probable with a leg issue.”

New York Giants at Denver Broncos – Open: -10; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -11.5; Move: -12; Move: -11.5

New York doesn’t have a win this season, and it’s running out of receivers, too. Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall both suffered season-ending ankle injuries against the Los Angeles Chargers, and fellow wideouts Sterling Shepard (ankle) and Dwayne Harris (broken foot) were also hurt in that game.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) lost 27-22 giving 3 points at home.

Denver (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, following a 16-10 victory over Oakland as a 3.5-point home chalk. So the Broncos are well-rested heading into this Sunday nighter, with kickoff at 8:30 ET.

“To say the Giants are an absolute mess may be an understatement,” Jerome said. “Four of their top five wide receivers are now out due to injuries. It’s gonna be ugly to see how the Giants are able to move the ball against one of the top defenses. Two other injuries to keep eye on defensively for New York are Landon Collins (ankle) and Olivier Vernon (ankle). If neither are able to play, I can see the line closing as high as -13 when it kicks.”

Jerome said TopBet saw sharp action on Denver early in the week, and by Friday, 79 percent of money and 84 percent of tickets written were on the Broncos.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans – Open: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5; Move: -9

Rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is turning some heads in Houston and will need to keep doing so, now that star defensive end J.J. Watt (leg fracture) is done for the season. The Texans (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) lost to Kansas City 42-34 last week as a 2-point home ‘dog, and also lost linebacker Whitney Mercilus (torn pectoral muscle) for the season, along with Watt.

Cleveland, on the other hand, is benching rookie QB DeShone Kizer in favor of Kevin Hogan. The winless Browns (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS) lost to the New York Jets 17-14 catching 1.5 points in Week 5.

“The Cleveland Browns are getting three times more money on account. So sharps are on the Cleveland Browns,” Bernanke said of action on this 1 p.m. ET start. “The public is kind of split in this game. They’re still not sold on Deshaun Watson laying double-digit points. I know he’s played really well, and I can’t blame (the public) for being a little gun-shy when he’s been catching points every game and now he’s in a different league where he’s laying 9.5-10 points.

“And the Browns switching their quarterbacks, I know this team seems hopeless, but they can’t be any worse.”

[BettorsChat]

Man, that's a real tip! Thanks, Monte!

I try to help when I can

[BettorsChat]

I was looking kinda hard at the Titans today but this one is a little too strong to go against.

Luck is supposed to be back today so who knows. Thanks for posting all the info you do Rance!

[Udog]

Luck is supposed to be back today so who knows. Thanks for posting all the info you do Rance!

A few minutes ago, ESPN said Luck is out this week. I'm going to take a look at buying the Titans back to 5.5. It might be an affordable hedge.

[Udog]

Well, it's $1.40 right now at 5D. Hmmmm........

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 6 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Atlanta Falcons, -11.5 (644)- L

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2.5 (701)- W

4) Denver Broncos, -11.5 (716)- L

3) Detroit Lions, +5 (779)- L

2) Green Bay Packers, -3 (970)- L

1) Pittsburgh Steelers, +4.5 (993)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 15-21


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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Eagles 28, Panthers 23— Philly’s first two TD drives were 12-17 yards; they improve to 5-1 and now have 11 days until their next game. Eagles are 3-1 on road; their only loss was to the Chiefs. Newton threw for 325 yards but threw three INT’s; guys on TV wondered if he hurt his shoulder on the play when he dove, trying to get the ball into the end zone. Road team covered all six Panther games this season.

Dolphins 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta led 17-0 at the half, then didn’t score in 2nd half, running 23 plays for 100 yards on four empty drives. Miami went TD-TD-FG-FG on their second half drives, after scoring 3 offensive TD’s on 46 drives in their first 4.5 games. Falcons are now 4-12 as home favorites under Quinn. AFC East road teams are 8-2 vs spread outside the division.

Vikings 23, Packers 10— So you’ve got Aaron Rodgers on your fantasy team, or you bet the Packers or are just a Packer fan; on one play, everything goes up in smoke, when Rodgers leaves in first quarter with a broken collarbone. Case Keenum is way better than Brett Hundley, as far as backup QB’s go. Next week, Hundley will become only the 7th starting QB for Green Bay in the last 25 years- since ’08, Packers are 3-5-1 without Rodgers, not including two other games they lost when he got hurt in the first quarter.

Saints 52, Lions 38— One of strangest games in NFL history; Detroit scored a defensive TD and had a punt return for a TD, yet they trailed 45-10 with 6:10 left in 3rd quarter. Then with 5:20 to go in the game, after being down 45-10, Lions had the ball down only 45-38.

New Orleans defense scored three TD’s in this game; when they were on the field, they scored 21 points and the Lion offense scored 24. In last three games, all wins. Saints have 9 takeaways (+6), after having zero takeaways in their first two games, both losses.

Patriots 24, Jets 17— At 1:48 Sunday afternoon, Josh McCown was 11-15/149 passing with two TD’s, as Jets led 14-0; McCown wound up 31-47/354 but a key call on a goal line fumble by the Jets cost Gang Green a huge TD. The play was very similar to Todd Gurley’s goal line fumble against Seattle LW, involving the pylon and the player recovering his fumble.

Jets gained 408 yards but turned ball over three times; they covered on a FG with 3:40 left- they’re 13-5 vs spread in last 18 games as a home underdog. Gronkowski caught two TD passes for New England.

Redskins 26, 49ers 24— Niners became 5th team in first six weeks of season to bench their QB for non-injury reasons; in other words, because the guy sucked. Iowa alum Beathard is grandson of former Redskins’ GM Bobby Beathard; he was 19-36/245 in his NFL debut. 49ers may be 0-6, but their last five losses were by 3-2-3-3-2 points- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. Washington is 5-11 vs spread in its last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bears 27, Ravens 24 OT— Baltimore scored two TD’s on special teams, and still lost- their offense averaged 3.8 ypa, gained 291 yards, turned ball over 3 times. In last six days, Chicago has four TD passes; one each by the punter and RB Cohen, two by rookie QB Trubisky. Bobby Rainey had a 96-yard kickoff return for a Raven TD, the first kickoff return for a TD in the NFL this year. Ravens are +8 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses.

Texans 33, Browns 17— Deshaun Watson woke up on draft day last spring with a text from Browns’ coach Hue Jackson, telling him to “be ready”. Then Cleveland passed on Watson; they are now 6-12 vs spread in their last 18 games as a road underdog.

Meanwhile, Houston scored 33-57-34-33 points in their last four games behind rookie QB Watson, a player the Browns could’ve taken themselves. I went to a damn state college, but even I know that quarterback is an important position in football— you need a good one.

Cardinals 38, Buccaneers 33— Arizona led 31-0, KO’d Bucs’ QB Winston (shoulder), but then Tampa Bay roared back behind backup QB Fitzpatrick, scoring four TD’s on their last six drives, but they never got ball back with chance to take lead. Cardinals averaged 11.3 ypa, scored 31 points on five red zone drives- they head to England next to play the Rams.

For the week, team over/unders are 13-13 heading into the Monday night game.

Rams 27, Jaguars 17— Special teams, special teams, special teams. John Fassel is the Rams’ special teams coach— his dad used to coach the Giants. When they fired him, he was replaced by Tom Coughlin, who now runs the Jacksonville franchise. Rams ran opening kick back for a TD, then blocked a punt for a TD later in the game.

Leonard Fournette’s first carry was a 75-yard TD; rest of the day, he ran ball 20 times for 55 yards, before leaving with a sprained ankle. Jaguars are +11 in turnovers in their three wins, -1 in their three losses.

Rams were held to 20-16 points in their two losses; they scored 27+ in their four wins.

Steelers 19, Chiefs 13— First half yardage: Pittsburgh 216, Kansas City -21. Despite that, KC trailed only 19-13 with 3:40 left when a bad pass by Roethlisberger took an unfortunate bounce off a defender’s hand and into Antonio Brown’s hands, were he scored the game-clinching TD.

Chiefs scored 17 TD’s in their first five games; they scored one here and rushed for only 28 yards- they lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position. Since start of LY, Chiefs are 0-3 vs Pittsburgh, 17-3 vs everyone else.

Chargers 17, Raiders 16— Five of six Charger game have been decided by 5 or less points; they won their last two games, both on road. Rivers found TE Henry with couple of key passes to keep game-winning drive alive- they kicked FG as time expired to win the game. Novak is their third kicker in six games, by the way.

Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 10-10-17-16 points; Carr played despite his back being not fully healed. Raiders ran a lot of shorter pass patterns so Carr wouldn’t be subjected to hits from linemen— thats why Amani Cooper’s numbers were down in this game.

Giants 23, Broncos 10— New York gets its first win of the year as 12-point underdogs; their reshuffled offensive line paved way for 146 rushing yards, second week in row they ran for 145+ yards. Siemian threw an awful pick-6 right before the half that broke the game open.

Denver was -3 in turnovers; NFL teams are 4-33 this season when they’re -2 or worse in TO’s. Giants play their next three games vs NFC West teams; Seahawks-Rams-49ers, with a bye mixed in there.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 16

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Colts at Titans
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-8.5, 48)

The Tennessee Titans witnessed firsthand last week what life is like without their stud quarterback while the Indianapolis Colts have played under that cloud all season. With Marcus Mariota's availability in question due to a hamstring injury, the Titans aim to snap an 11-game losing skid against the Colts on Monday night when the AFC South rivals meet at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.

"I want to be very smart about how we do this. It's more than this game, it's a lot of games, that we've got to be concerned about," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said of Mariota. Mularkey and company couldn't have been too keen on the performance of Matt Cassel, as the Titans mustered just 188 total yards in their lowest scoring output of the season - a 16-10 loss to Miami. Indianapolis has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place of the injured Andrew Luck (shoulder), who does not have an exact timetable to return. Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a touchdown last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a winless team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4) - Titans (3) + home field (-3) = Titans -2

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opned as 8-point home favorites and that number has been bumped up slightly to -8.5. The total hit betting boards at 49 and has dropped one full point to 48 as of Sunday night.

INJURY REPORT:

Colts - WR Chester Rogers (Probable Monday, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Probable, Knee), TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Concussion), CB Nat Hairston (Probable Monday, Quadricep), RB Matt Jones (Probable, Knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (Probable Monday, Wrist), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable Monday, Hamstring), QB Andrew Luck (Early November, Shoulder), OT Jack Mewhort (Questionable Week 14, Knee), S Clayton Geathers (Questionable Week 7, Neck), WR Krishawn Hogan (I-R, Knee).

Titans - QB Marcus Mariota (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Taylor Lewan (Questionable, Knee), S Johnathan Cyprien (Out, Hamstring), WR Corey Davis (Out, Hamstring), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable Week 11, Back).

ABOUT THE COLTS (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): T.Y. Hilton gashed the 49ers with seven receptions for 177 yards last week and looks to continue his assault on the Titans, against whom he had a seven-catch, 133-yard performance last October in a comeback win in Nashville. "This game, it counts double. It's very important. It's something that we understand," the 27-year-old Hilton said. Rookie running back Marlon Mack has shown a burst in Indianapolis' backfield, rushing for a 22-yard touchdown and galloping for a key 35-yard run that set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard field goal in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore, who moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing, has four touchdowns in his last three games versus Tennessee.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Tennessee's bread and butter has long been its rushing attack, but DeMarco Murray has amassed just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests - with Miami limiting the Titans to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. Murray could get untracked against a Colts'defense that is surrendering an NFL-high 31.8 points per game this season, and the veteran has scored a touchdown in each of the past three encounters with the club. Wideout Rishard Matthews has put his best foot forward at home, reeling in 20 receptions for 272 yards and two touchdowns in the past three games. Matthews, however, has been limited to just six catches for 83 yards in the Titans' back-to-back losses the past two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games in October.
* Over is 10-2-1 in Titans last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Colts are picking up 61 percent of the pointspread wagers and Over is grabbing 55 percent of the totals selections.


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[Udog]

Well, it's $1.40 right now at 5D. Hmmmm........

It's $1.70 this morning. Most of the action is coming in on Tennessee (a marginal team at best). I'm glad there's playoff baseball tonight!

[Udog]

NFL opening line report: A-Rod injury turns Pack into early Week 7 pups
Patrick Everson

The Green Bay Packers are home underdogs for just the second time since the beginning of the 2014 season. Will backup QB Brett Hundley be able to carry the load for the Pack with A-Rod out?

Through six weeks of the NFL season, there are no more undefeated teams, and it’s anybody’s guess as to which squad is best. Patrick Everson checks out the opening lines on four Week 7 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3)

Kansas City tumbled from the ranks of the unbeaten with a sluggish Week 6 offensive performance, failing to put up touchdown until the fourth quarter. The Chiefs (5-1 SU and ATS) lost to Pittsburgh 19-13 as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Oakland welcomed the return of star quarterback Derek Carr, then promptly mirrored KC with a lackluster effort. The Raiders (2-4 SU and ATS) had just one second-half score – a fourth-quarter touchdown after which they missed the extra point. That proved critical when the Raiders, 3-point home faves, lost 17-16 on a last-second San Diego field goal.

Both teams now have a short week, playing in the Thursday nighter.

“What a change in perception between these teams from the offseason to the present,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs finally put up a dud, but that’s expected at some point, while Oakland looks like it’s already left for Vegas. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks with teams that look disoriented, expect the Raiders’ best effort Thursday night.”

Early bettors apparently think so. Although the Raiders were still 3-point home pups late Sunday night, the price to get those points was up to -125.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-4.5)

It’s a rematch of the Super Bowl, though neither team seems to be in championship form, particularly Atlanta. The Patriots, bettors will remember, were 3-point faves in the Super Bowl against Atlanta and needed a miracle to overcome at 27-3 second half deficit to win and cover the spread.

The Falcons (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) won their first three games, trying to put that incredible Super Bowl meltdown behind them. But they’ve now dropped the last two, including Sunday’s shocking 20-17 home loss to Miami as hefty 14-point chalk.

New England (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) spotted the New York Jets 14 points on Sunday, not exactly looking like a 9-point road favorite. However, the Patriots scored the next 24 points and hung on for a 24-17 victory.

“Sharps loved the Falcons in the last matchup between these teams, and they’re lining up again here,” Cooley said of early action for this Sunday night clash. “We’ve already moved the spread down to -3, but it’s doubtful we’ll see it dip under the key number. The Falcons look flat of late, but it’s not as if the Pats have been world beaters the last three weeks.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Heading into Week 7, Philadelphia surprisingly holds the lead in the NFC East. The Eagles (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) played in the first game of Week 6 and dropped Carolina 28-23 catching 3 points on the road Thursday night.

Washington (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) blew all of a 17-0 lead Sunday, but held on late to move above .500. The Redskins edged the 49ers 26-24, falling well short as 12-point home faves.

“Early money has been on Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise,” Cooley said of the Week 7 Monday nighter. “We’ve moved down to -4 already, but it’s highly unlikely it will head further south. You have to like what both of these squads are doing on the field, but Philadelphia is a few pegs ahead of where Washington is.”

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4)

Green Bay was 4-1 SU and appeared to be rounding into form after a big road win at Dallas. Then Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter Sunday against Minnesota, and poof! The Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost 23-10 giving 3 points on the road, and will be without their stud QB for the foreseeable future, perhaps the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, New Orleans cracked the 50-point barrier in a wild Week 6 home victory. The Saints (3-2 SU and ATS) went off as 6-point faves against Detroit, led 45-10 midway through the third quarter, then held off a furious rally for a 52-38 victory. Drew Brees and Co. have won and cashed three straight.

Cooley said Bookmaker.eu wasn’t quite ready Sunday to post a Saints-Packers line, with Green Bay now relying on unproven backup Brett Hundley.

“We’ve got to do some additional assessment with Hundley under center in Green Bay before posting a line,” Cooley said. “The public will line up to fade a team sans Aaron Rodgers, but we’ve seen this Packers bunch blow out opponents without him. We’ll open the Saints as short road chalk.”

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened with the Saints as 4-point road favorites, while offshore sportsbook Pinnacle installed the Saints as 4.5-point chalk.

[Udog]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 7 NFL lines are going to move

Bill Belichick's defense has given up 300 or more passing yards in each of the Patriots last six games. Despite the high total, this could be another good opportunity to bet the over with New England.

Game to bet now

Dallas at San Francisco (+6)

Call this one the National Anthem Bowl. The Cowboys, who have been ordered by owner Jerry Jones to stand for the anthem under penalty of benching (or worse), vs. the 49ers, who are the flagship franchise for protest and can stand or kneel depending on the depths of their beliefs.

There will probably be a football game after said anthem, and it’s a big game for the Boys if not the out-of-it-already Niners. Dallas is 2-3 (both SU and ATS) and staring down the barrel of a nasty October/November run that includes four straight winning teams (Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta, Philadelphia) after this Sunday.

It’s possible that all the hay will be in the barn by Thanksgiving, so the Cowboys really need this one to get some momentum for their most important four-game stretch of the season.

Game to wait on

New Orleans at Green Bay (+4.5)

Pro Football Talk has suggested that it might be time to institute even more protection for quarterbacks after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the year when he suffered a broken collar bone when hit a split second after throwing a pass last Sunday.

Maybe, maybe not. But Rodgers might be the best QB in the world, and losing him is bad for business.

The focus will now be on backup QB Brett Hundley, who has been holding a clipboard for a couple of years. Hundley threw 33 passes on Sunday and three of them wound up being intercepted. The Saints are scrambling to find tape on the kid. The line could expand based on early betting.

Total to watch

Atlanta at New England (53.5)

A week or more of warm weather is predicted in New England, and that’s good news for both offenses in this Super Bowl repeat.

The Falcons will welcome any help they can get after scoring just 34 total points in back-to-back losses to AFC East teams (Miami, Buffalo) – and the Patriots might just be the cure for what ails them.

Last Sunday vs. the Jets, New England’s defense gave up more than 300 passing yards for the sixth consecutive. Every week fans figure that Bill Belichick will get it fixed, and every week it isn’t.

Even with the high number, the over might be worth a long, hard look.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7
Monty Andrews

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+6, 45)

Saints' impressive O-line vs. Packers' lack of QB pressure

This was supposed to be a matchup between two of the all-time great quarterbacks in NFL history - but with Aaron Rogers out for the long-term with a broken collarbone, the host Packers come in as close to a one-touchdown underdog against Drew Brees and the high-powered Saints offense. Sorting out the offense will be Green Bay's top priority, but finding a way to get to Brees - something no team has done yet this season - should be next on the list.

The Saints have shown tremendous growth on defense over the past three weeks, producing nine turnovers in that stretch. But it is the offensive line that deserves the lion's share of the laurels; it has limited opponents to just four sacks all season, the fewest of any team in the league. It's a big reason why New Orleans ranks seventh in the NFL in total offense (372.2 yards per game) and fourth in scoring offense (29 ppg). If Brees has time to throw, he is among the most dangerous QBs in history.

The Saints' O-line owns a decided edge over a Green Bay pass rush still needs work. Only three teams - Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and Tennessee - have produced fewer sacks than the Packers (11) through the first six weeks of the season. It's a mind-boggling stat considering that four of Green Bay's five defensive line starters have Pro Football Focus grades higher than 78. A lack of quarterback pressure this weekend could make for a long day for the home side.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 39.5)

Ravens' wretched third-down results vs. Vikings' vaunted 3D defense

The Ravens have to be wondering what went wrong last weekend as they fell behind early, rallied late and ultimately fell short in a 27-24 overtime loss to visiting Chicago. Baltimore has been one of the most maddeningly inconsistent teams in the league through six weeks, and will need to be at its best this Sunday if it hopes to prevail against the impressive Vikings. One significant area of improvement: Third down execution, something that cost the Ravens the win on Sunday.

Baltimore had the ball on its own 40-yard line on its only possession of OT, but gained just eight yards and failed in a pivotal 3rd-and-2 situation that forced the Ravens to punt. It was the story of the game for Baltimore, which went 3-for-18 on third down Sunday and ranks 28th in the league with a 34.6-percent success rate. It's no wonder, then, that Baltimore sits 29th in total offense (289.2 ypg) and averages an unimpressive 19 points per game so far this season.

They won't find things any easier this weekend, as the Vikings come in off impressive victories over the Bears and Packers in which they limited their foes to 27 total points. Chicago and Green Bay went a combined 7-for-29 on third down against Minnesota, which has held the opposition to a 25-percent success rate - tops in the NFL, and well ahead of the 38.8-percent success rate opposing teams posted against the Vikings in 2016. Look for plenty of short Baltimore drives in this one.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 47.5)

Cardinals' second-half struggles vs. Rams' late-game ball control

Twickenham Stadium is the site of the latest NFL foray into London, with the Cardinals and Rams making the trek overseas. Both teams are coming off impressive victories, with the Cardinals outlasting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38-33 and the Rams upending the host Jaguars 27-17. These teams are tightly bunched with Seattle atop the NFC West, but the Rams come into this one with a decided edge in ball control after the break - something Arizona will need to correct in England.

The Cardinals rank in the lower third in the league in second-half points per game at 8.8 - significantly below the 13.6 ppg average they posted in 2016. And while last week's circumstances - specifically, a 24-0 halftime lead - might have played a role, Arizona's second-half struggles allowed Tampa Bay to make a game of it in the second half. Arizona ranks 26th in the league in second-half possession rate, controlling the ball less than 46 percent of the time after the break.

On the flip side, the Rams' revamped offense has impressed in a number of ways - not the least of which being its ability to control the play in the second half of games. While Los Angeles ranks just outside the top-10 in second half points per game (11.2), that figure is still nearly five points higher than the 6.3 ppg mark it registered last season. And the Rams have masterfully dominated the football after halftime, sitting third in the NFL with a 56.1-percent possession rate.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 42)

Broncos' bad red-zone play vs. Chargers' downfield dominance

The Broncos are reeling after watching the receiver-bereft New York Giants come into Sports Authority Field at Mile High and escape with a 23-10 victory. And sure, Denver could have been stronger defensively, but no one can argue that the offense was the biggest source of frustration on the night, as the team squandered one red-zone opportunity after another. A similarly underwhelming performance won't fly against a Chargers team that has been one of the stingiest when foes get inside their 20-yard line.

Denver comes into the week as one of the worst red-zone performers in football, scoring a touchdown on just 45 percent of trips inside the opponent's 20 - the sixth-lowest mark in the NFL. The Broncos have scored TDs on red zone visits just 25 percent of the time over their previous three games after going a perfect 4-for-4 in a one-sided win over Dallas in Week 2. Denver had 13 possessions against the Giants and scored just one touchdown, going 1-for-4 in the red zone.

The Chargers have offensive issues of their own; they average a paltry 79 rushing yards per game and will be in tough to increase that total against the toughest run defense in the league. But few teams defend in the red zone like Los Angeles, which has limited opponents to a 40-percent touchdown success rate inside their 20-yard line - behind only Seattle, Buffalo, Oakland and Minnesota. The Chargers won't be easy to score on downfield, which could mean even more red-zone struggles for Denver.