Announcement

**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 10:52 AM

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson

“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.

Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”

As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.

Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.

“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”

By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.

Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.

“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.

**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 10:53 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move

Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries.

Game to bet on now

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)

The first-place Buffalo Bills. OMG. No, today is not Opposite Day - the Bills are actually in first place in the AFC for the first time since, well, maybe George Bush – the FIRST George Bush.

New England’s continued defensive struggles have created, at least, a temporary opening for the Bills and their long-suffering fans, and right now they’re taking full advantage. Through four games Buffalo has given up the fewest points in the league (less than 14 a game), and back-to-back wins over quality teams (Denver, at Atlanta) has raised hopes sky-high in western New York.

With the Patriots on a short week and the Bills on the move, things could get very interesting in the division for the first time in a long time.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)

This line opened at Dallas -1 at some books but the consensus was -2.5, which led to Green Bay backers jumping in with both feet. It has the look and a feel of a game whose line could melt a bit.

There might be an air of desperation in Dallas (even moreso than usual) as the Cowboys are 2-2 and still trying to figure things out. Certainly no one in the league had penciled in a home loss to the Rams when the schedule came out, but here we are. The Boys need to get rolling and fast, but the next four-game block includes this one, road games to each coast (San Francisco, Washington) with a home game against a solid KC team mixed in.

Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries. Might be worth waiting for the injury report before betting this one.

Total to watch

Carolina at Detroit (43.5)

Is Cam Newton finally out of the box, or was Sunday’s 33-point burst just an example of another quarterback taking advantage of New England’s league-worst defense?

Newton’s Panthers had scored just 22 points total in their previous two games (New Orleans, Buffalo) but got out of the sick bed fast against the porous Patriots' D. Newton got the job done against New England despite two sacks, an interception and a fumble, which means the offense still has some cleanup work to do.

The Lions defense has been about average this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Carolina to put points on the board as it continues an October stretch of four road games in five weeks.

**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 10:54 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 5

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 178-140 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-82 ATS (+25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 8

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LA CHARGERS (0 - 4) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (2 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (2 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (3 - 1) at DETROIT (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-170 ATS (-56.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-115 ATS (-46.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 127-178 ATS (-68.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-178 ATS (-58.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 9

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 3) - 10/9/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 10:54 AM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 5

9:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

Sunday, October 8
2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Miami is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Francisco is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home

2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NY GIANTS
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. DETROIT
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

5:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LOS ANGELES
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Los Angeles is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle

5:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

5:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DALLAS
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Monday, October 9

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota

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**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 10:55 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's game
Patriots (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-1)— New England defense has already allowed 33+ points in three games this year; they’re 0-2 when scoring less than 36 points. Patriot defense has given up 3.04 pts/drive on 28 opponent drives that started 75+ yards from goal line; next worst in NFL are Saints, at 2.80. Bucs don’t have a takeaway in last two games; they’re only 4-17 on 3rd down in last two games. Tampa ran ball for 117-111 yards in its two wins, only 26 yards on 9 carries in their 26-9 loss in Minnesota. Patriots are 6-2 vs Tampa Bay, winning last three meetings by combined score of 86-10. This is Patriots’ first visit to Tampa Bay since 1997. NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-4, 1-3 when favored.

Sunday's games
Chargers (0-4) @ Giants (0-4)— Two desperate teams meet here; Chargers already have three losses by 3 or less points- they lost 24-21 at Denver in only road game. Since 2012, LA is 22-11-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Giants lost 27-24/25-23 the last two weeks; they’re running ball for only 59.3 yards/game, so all the pressure is on their passing game. Giants lost 24-10 to Detroit in their only home game; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite. Chargers won last three series games, by 22-1-23 points; their last loss to the Giants was in 1998. NFC East teams are 5-4 vs spread out of their division, 1-3 when favored. AFC West teams are 5-4 vs spread out of division, 3-0 as an underdog.

Bills (3-1) @ Bengals (1-3)— Buffalo allowed 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up 4 TD’s on 4 drives; they were underdog in last 3 games. Bills are +6 in turnovers- they haven’t turned ball over in their last three games- three of the four games stayed under. Buffalo is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as a road underdog. Bengals won their first game LW; they led 21-7/21-0 at halftime last two weeks- they lost in OT at Green Bay in Week 3. Cincy scored 6 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after scoring no TD’s in first two games- -they won three of last four series games; road team won four of last five series games. Bills are 5-1 in last six visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jets (2-2) @ Browns (0-4)— Winless Browns are at home for 4th time in five weeks; they have worst red zone defense in NFL, allowing 6.38 pts/red zone drive, slightly worse than Green Bay. Browns are running ball for 89 yards/game- they’re only 15-53 on 3rd down, not unusual with a rookie QB playing. Jets won last two weeks; they ran ball for 256 yards LW. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-9-3 vs spread on road. Last 4+ years, Browns are 4-8 vs spread as a home favorite; they are 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games when favored. Jets won their last four games with Cleveland; they won 31-28 here LY, are 2-1 in last three visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1)— Jaguars ran ball for 155+ yards in 3 of 4 games; they’re 7 for last 27 on 3rd down, completed only 15-35 passes LW. Jags averaged 7.5/7.4 ypa in their two wins, 5.9/3.8 in their losses. Jaguars are 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog. Steelers (-8.5) beat Minnesota in their only home game; they’ve held all four opponents under 5.0 ypa this year, last three under 4.0. Since 2012, Pitt is 20-12 vs spread as a home favorite; they’ve allowed 23 points, scored 7 on 28 opponents’ drives that started 75+ yards from goal line. Pitt won last three series games, by 5-4-8 points, since Jaguars beat them in ’07 playoffs. Jaguars are 5-2 in last seven visits to Steel City. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 3-2 vs spread.

Titans (2-2) @ Dolphins (1-2)— Miami is finally home after games in LA-NJ-London, thanks to Hurricane Irma; in their last two games, Dolphins have one TD, no FGA’s on 20 drives- they went 2-20 on 3rd down in their two losses, but scored only one TD in the win, too. Fish are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home underdog. Tennessee lost 57-14 LW in a game they were favored to win; Titans scored 37-33 points in its two wins- they went 3/out on 15 of last 25 drives, allowed 26+ points in 3 of 4 games. Tennessee is 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Teams split last ten meetings; Titans won 37-3/30-17 in last two visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 4-4.

49ers (0-4) @ Colts (1-3)— 49ers didn’t score a TD in 3 of their 4 games; they scored 39 in the other game, but lost all four, last three by 3-2-3 points- Niners are 8-12 in last 20 games as a road underdog, but are 2-0 this year. Indy was tied 18-18 in Seattle Sunday, then got outscored 21-0 over a 5:56 span; they’ve split two home games this year, with both games decided by a FG. Colts are favored for first time this year; over last 2+ years, they’re 5-7 as a home favorite- under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games. Colts won last three series games, by 25-4-20 points; teams split four meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-1 vs spread. NFC West teams are 3-7 vs spread outside their division, 1-4 when getting points.

Cardinals (2-2) @ Eagles (3-1)— Arizona is 2-2, with shaky wins by FG each over Colts/49ers, when they allowed a total of one TD- they gave up 8 offensive TD’s in losses to Lions/Dallas; Cardinals have run ball for only 57 ypg. Redbirds are 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Philly is 3-1, winning their last two games by total of 5 points; they beat Giants 27-24 (-6) in their only home game, kicking 61-yard FG on last play. Eagles are 4-6 in last 10 games as a home favorite; they ran ball for 193-214 yards in last two games, have converted 30-59 on 3rd down this season.NFC East teams are 1-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West dogs are 1-4. Arizona won five of last six games with Philly, winning 40-17 in last visit here two years ago.

Panthers (3-1) @ Lions (3-1)— Detroit is already +9 (11-2) in turnovers this year; they’ve won field position in all 4 games, three by 5+ yards. Lions are 12-4-3 as a home favorite under Caldwell, 1-0 this season. Carolina didn’t allow a TD in winning their first two games; they gave up 7 TD’s on 19 drives in last two games, but upset Patriots 33-30 LW to get to 3-1. Panthers are 8-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Under is 3-1 in their four games. LW was first time they gained more than 288 yards in a game this year. Carolina is 5-2 against the Lions, splitting part of visits here, last of which was in 2011. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 6-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside their division.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Seattle lost its first two road games by 8-6 points; they’re 11-7-5 in last 23 games as a road underdog. Seahawks scored 8 TD’s on 23 drives in last two games, after scoring one TD the first two weeks. 3-1 Rams are favored over Seattle for just 4th time in last 27 meetings. LA won three of last four series games, which lost last three series road games, by 2-3-6 points. Rams lead NFL in scoring thru four weeks, scoring 12 TD’s with 14 FGs in four games, plus two TD’s by the defense- they scored 35+ points in their three wins, were held to 20 in only loss (27-20) vs Redskins. LA defense gave up 385+ yards in each of last three games; opponents were 16-32 on 3rd down in last two games.

Ravens (2-2) @ Raiders (2-2)— Oakland QB Carr (back fracture) is out 2-6 weeks; EJ Manuel is Raiders’ new QB- he is 6-11 as an NFL starter, losing last five starts- his last win was in 2014. Oakland lost last two games, scoring two TD’s on 24 drives, with 15 3/outs. Ravens were +7 in turnovers in their two wins, then lost last two games by combined 70-16, scoring two TDs with six turnovers (-5) on 24 drives. Raiders won their last two games vs Baltimore, 37-33/28-27, after losing 7 of previous 8 series games. Teams split four meetings played here. Lot of travel for Ravens, who were in London two weeks ago, then didn’t have bye week after, and are now on west coast- 3 of their 4 games for both teams have stayed under the total.

Packers (3-1) @ Cowboys (2-2)— Green Bay won six of last seven series games, beating Dallas in playoffs two of last three years; they won 37-36/34-31 in last two visits here- their last loss in Dallas was in ‘07. Packers have already used 3 LT’s and 3 RT’s, is amazing they’re 3-1. Pack is 28-57 on 3rd down despite running for only 74.5 ypg, a credit to Rodgers’ greatness. Cowboys allowed 42-35 points in two losses, 3-17 points in two wins; they’re 8-18 vs spread in last 26 games as non-divisional home favorites. Last week was first time Green Bay led at halftime this year; Packers are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as road underdogs, 8-15 vs spread in last 23 games on artificial turf. Green Bay’s last three games all went over the total. Packers’ RB Montgomery has multiple broken ribs, will likely sit this one out.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Texans (2-2)— Short week for Chiefs, who won/covered their first four games, scoring 14 TD’s on 42 drives- they haven’t turned ball over in their last 3 games. KC is 12-2 vs spread as a road favorite under Reid- they ran ball for 168+ yards in 3 of their 4 games, are tied with Raiders for best (5.67 ppp) red zone offense in NFL. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Texan games this year; Houston scored 90 points in last two games behind rookie QB Watson, who is 2-1 as a starter. Texans scored a defensive TD in each of last two games, and also averaged 8.3/7.6 ypa; they’re 3-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien. KC is 5-4 in series games, 4-3 in Houston. AFC West teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 4-4 vs spread outside their division.

Monday's game
Vikings (2-2) @ Bears (1-3)— Rookie QB Trubisky makes his NFL debut here; he started for one year at North Carolina- UNC went 8-5 LY. Vikings won four of last five games against the Bears,, but lost 8 of their last 9 visits to Chicago, with lone win 2 years ago. Minnesota scored 9-7 points in their losses this year, 29-34 in their wins; they lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh in only road game this season— backup QB Keenum is 10-17 as an NFL starter. Chicago is 1-3, but both their home games were decided by 6 points- they were outscored 47-7 in first half of their last two losses, which is why the QB change was made. Bears are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year.

**Udog** · 10-04-2017, 01:34 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
Monty Andrews

Le'Veon Bell broke out in a big way last week, racking up 186 total yards and two touchdowns. He faces a Jags team that allows more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 43.5)

Jaguars' dreadful run D vs. LeVeon Bell's awesomeness

After playing three of their first four games on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoy a nice stretch of home cooking - beginning with Sunday afternoon's showdown with the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers' offense is still finding its footing early in the season, but comes into this one with a 3-1 record - and a significant advantage when it comes to their run game, if last week's strategy is any indication.

A lot of attention has been paid to the Jaguars' offense, which was a major question mark following Blake Bortles' terrible preseason and a season-ending injury to top receiver Allen Robinson. Yet, while the team has put up an impressive 109 points through four games, it's the run defense that has been a significant issue. Jacksonville is surrendering more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry with five touchdowns against; the Jags gave up just 3.8 YPC last season.

The Steelers finally gave their bellcow back, Le'Veon Bell, a workload commensurate with his ability in last week's 26-9 rout of the Baltimore Ravens - and Bell broke out in a big way, racking up 186 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. He's averaging just 3.7 YPC on the season, but missed all of training camp due to a contract dispute and is just now hitting his stride. If the Jags' run defense continues to allow big runs, Bell and the Steelers could be in for a very big day.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 44)

Panthers' aversion to penalties vs. Lions' lousy discipline

It's a battle of division leaders at Ford Field this Sunday as the Lions host the Panthers in a showdown of 3-1 teams. The Panthers are coming off a stunning 33-30 win over the defending-champion Patriots at Foxboro, while the Lions ground out a 14-7 road win over Minnesota last weekend. Discipline could be a major factor in this one, with Carolina among the league's best at avoiding flags - and Detroit at the other end of the spectrum as we enter Week 5.

Carolina has been the class of the league when it comes to discipline, picking up just 13 flags through four games - the fewest in the NFL. Only Tampa Bay has garnered fewer than Carolina's 118 penalty yards against, and the Buccaneers have only played three games. The Panthers' plus-10 net penalty count ranks second in the league, and they rank fourth in net penalty yards (65). Even more impressively: Carolina has just two combined flags in its previous two games.

The Lions should consider themselves fortunate to be 3-1 at this stage of the season considering how undisciplined they've been so far. Detroit has been penalized 31 times for a whopping 308 yards against, the third-highest total in the league. That includes 139 penalty yards on offense, behind only the Steelers. It's no surprise, then, that the Lions rank second from the bottom in net penalty yards with -125 - and a similar performance this weekend could spell trouble for the hosts.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 47)

Chiefs' poor pass protection vs. Texans' tough pass rush

The Chiefs are the only remaining unbeaten team through four weeks - and they'll be in tough to keep their spotless record as they draw the Texans in Houston this weekend. The Texans are coming off a 57-14 annihilation of Tennessee, evening their record and moving them into a tie with the Jaguars and Titans atop the AFC South. Yet, for as much attention as the Houston offense garnered last week, it's the Texans' elite pass rush that could help the home side hand Kansas City its first loss.

Alex Smith has been his efficient best through four games - completing 76 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions - but has also had to deal with a leaky offensive line that has allowed 16 sacks so far this season, third-most in the NFL. Smith has been sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Kansas City run game has helped take some of the focus away, but make no mistake - Smith has spent a lot of time on the ground.

Houston will be happy to oblige this weekend; the Texans have produced a sack on 8.3 percent of opponent dropbacks so far this season, good for seventh in the league. That pass pressure has also helped contribute to Houston's four interceptions, tied for sixth-most league-wide. Combine that with the Texans' league-leading seven forced fumbles, and it could be a long afternoon for Smith and the rest of the Kansas City offense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, OFF)

Vikings' drive-extending success vs. Bears' third-down D woes

There's plenty of hype surrounding this week's Monday night tilt between the Vikings and the host Bears, with Chicago finally starting No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Yet, while it's difficult to know what fans and bettors alike can expect from the rookie signal caller, it should be a little easier to spot a significant edge the Vikings have coming into this one - and if they can exploit it, that could give them the edge to escape with a pivotal NFC North road victory.

Minnesota could have Sam Bradford back under center this week - and while that's great news for the offense, substitute Case Keenum has performed admirably in Bradford's absence. Together, they have the Vikings ranked fifth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.2 percent - behind only Carolina, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Denver. It's a considerable improvement from the 38.0-percent third-down success rate Minnesota boasted last season.

The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFC to have allowed more than 100 points so far - and they can "credit" their woeful showing on third downs for part of that. Chicago is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on better than 47 percent of their third-down situations - the third-worst mark in football, and a major drop from last season's 40.5-percent conversion rate. Those extra plays could mean the difference in what is expected to be a closely-contested affair.

**Udog** · 10-04-2017, 01:36 PM

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

The Buffalo Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS and getting three points from oddsmakers visting the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 55.5)

Taking everything into account, a general statement about both teams comes to New England not really being a good team right now and Tampa Bay not being that bad of a team.

Offshores sent this out at Patriots -4.5 and by Tuesday afternoon the line had already hit -6 Even on the strip in Las Vegas. Personally, I liked the offshore opener and thought that to be very fair. I’m not sure what the early money sees in a New England team that can’t stop anyone from a defensive perspective. Losers of two of three games at home, though the Pats have scored mightily themselves, their defense has allowed 42, 20, 33 and 33 points in succession.

With that kind of swiss cheese defense, it seems that bettors can take full advantage of this weak link in the New England chain and capitalize further with this early growing number. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs scored a nice victory in this spot straight up.

With the fast, early movement on the road favorites, Tampa Bay backers may want to wait to see if their local bookmakers continue to beef up the Patriots number in keeping up with the Joneses. Nothing like going against a team that’s in “due factor” mode in the eyes of line changing money. Somehow, I don’t think this is the Patriots’ year. Early recognition of this will put more cash in your pocket than taking it out. Wait to see where this peaks then take the home dog for best value.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39)

This game opened Bengals -3 and remained at that level for a good three days now. I had this closer to a pick’em and I can’t for the life of me figure out what is going on with this game.

Cincinnati had shown next to nothing in its first three games sporting an 0-3 record with minimal offense to speak of. I put little credence in the Bengals’ win over hapless Cleveland and can’t believe it had any motivational force to the oddsmakers who made this line.

What’s not to like about the Bills right now? Their offense has been rejuvenated the past two games. Their defense continues to dominate everyone they have faced so far. They conceivably could have beaten the Panthers in their only loss and stand at 4-0.

If I’m totally wrong in this game, I still think the +3 is a definite value play. Buffalo has played toe-to-toe with the likes of Carolina, Denver and Atlanta the past three weeks. Cincinnati does not appear to be on the same level with those teams at this point. Both have gone 1-3 Over/Under in their four games and this one doesn’t have the look of a high-scoring affair with that 39-point total. In this close one, the value is taking the points and bonus on the key three.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 47)

This game opened with the Rams spotting a deuce but was immediately taken by Seahawks backers. I kind of liked the offshore number myself and then some. I made this Rams -2.5, so I’m at an even larger gap in my opinion. I’m not sure if Seattle money just loved the fact that the Seahawks looked so great against the woeful Colts and thought that would continue against a better team.

The Rams have been an offensive dynamo so far, racking up scores of 46, 20, 41 and 35 in their first four games. They appear to be able to hang with whoever comes their way. Seattle is 2-2 and it hasn’t really played the toughest schedule.

With a 47 as a total in this game, there’s an expectation that scoring will be high. I’m not sure Seattle can keep up with the Rams at this point in the season if this gets to be a score fest. At -1.5 all you’re asking either team to do is win the game. That being the case, such a low number on the better team seems to be a good value play.

Returning home after a big win in Dallas, the Rams may even have a home-field advantage if enough people come to watch. If you think the Seahawks have suddenly turned things around, take the points ASAP before this line goes down any further.

**Udog** · 10-05-2017, 10:08 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 5

New England @ Tampa Bay

Game 303-304
October 5, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.225
Tampa Bay
128.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 13
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-5); Under

Sunday, October 8

LA Chargers @ NY Giants

Game 451-452
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
127.558
NY Giants
132.377
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Under

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Game 453-454
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
136.995
Cincinnati
135.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
39
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Over

NY Jets @ Cleveland

Game 455-456
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
123.218
Cleveland
128.765
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 1
39
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+1); Over

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

Game 457-458
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.932
Pittsburgh
142.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 12 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-8); Under

Tennessee @ Miami

Game 459-460
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
128.479
Miami
120.492
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 8
29
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
N/A

San Francisco @ Indianapolis

Game 461-462
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
126.618
Indianapolis
122.061
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 4 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2); Over

Arizona @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
133.219
Philadelphia
132.520
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+6 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Detroit

Game 465-466
October 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
136.795
Detroit
134.632
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+2 1/2); Over

Seattle @ LA Rams

Game 467-468
October 8, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.433
LA Rams
129.405
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+1 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Oakland

Game 469-470
October 8, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
123.823
Oakland
132.383
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-2 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Dallas

Game 471-472
October 8, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
131.998
Dallas
136.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under

Kansas City @ Houston

Game 473-474
October 8, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
147.926
Houston
138.588
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
Pick
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
Under

Monday, October 9

Minnesota @ Chicago

Game 475-476
October 9, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
132.779
Chicago
127.969
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A

**Udog** · 10-05-2017, 10:17 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Patriots at Buccaneers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 54)

Tom Brady is finally up against a defense that he might not be able to overcome -- his own. Despite a sensational start to the season by two-time league MVP Brady, the New England Patriots have allowed three of their first four opponents to score at least 30 points as they prepare to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday night.

The reigning Super Bowl champions have already lost twice at home following Sunday's 33-30 setback to the Carolina Panthers -- a division rival of Tampa Bay. "We haven't been really in control too often," said Brady, who rallied his team from a 14-point, fourth-quarter deficit in Sunday's last-second loss. "We are all really focused on trying to do a much better job than what we've done." The Buccaneers, who had their Week 1 matchup postponed due to Hurricane Irma, have sandwiched a pair of home wins around a 17-point loss at Minnesota. Quarterback Jameis Winston is coming off his best game of the season and gets back top running back Doug Martin, who returns after a suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

POWER RANKINGS: Patriots (-7) - Bucs (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -3.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as five-point road favorites and overnight Wednesday that number went up to 5.5. The total hit the betting boards at 53.5 and that number jumped two full points up to 55.5 before dropping back to 54 heading into game day.

INJURY REPORT:

Patriots - TE Rob Gronkowski (Probable, Thigh), OL M. Cannon (Questionable, Ankle), CB S. Gilmore (Questionable, Ankle), LB D. Hightower (Questionable, Knee), WR M. Slater (Questionable, Hamstring), RB R. Burkhead (Out, Ribs), DB E. Rowe (Out, Groin), DB B. King (Questionable, Hamstring), LB E. Roberts (Questionable, Ankle), DT V. Valentine (Out, Knee), WR M. Mitchell (Out, Knee), LB S. McClellin (I-R, Undisclosed), OL A. Jelks (Out, Knee), WR J. Edelman (I-R, Knee), CB C. Jones (I-R, Knee), DL K. Davis (I-R, Neck), OL T. Garcia (Out, Illness), DE D. Rivers (I-R, Knee).

Buccaneers - LB K. Alexander (Out, Hamstring), S T. Ward (Doubtful, Hip), S K. Tandy (Doubtful, Hip), LB L. David (Out, Knee), QB R. Griffin (Out, Shoulder), DL D. Lambert (I-R, Wrist), DT S. Tu'ikolovatu (I-R, Knee), DE J. Trattou (I-R, Undisclosed).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 4-0 O/U): Brady turned in a pedestrian effort in the season opener but he has thrown for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games while completing at least 71 percent of his passes in each. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has 18 receptions and two touchdowns while averaging 95 yards receiving over the past three, but wide receiver Brandin Cooks has been inconsistent in his first season with the team. The ground game also has been spotty, although running back James White has a team-high 22 receptions. The defense has been a sieve, allowing a staggering 456.8 yards per game -- by far the league worst -- and ranking 31st with 32.0 points per game.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): It's unclear how much of a role Martin, a two-time 1,000-yard rusher, will play in his season debut, although Jacquizz Rodgers rushed for 83 yards on 16 carries. Winston, the top overall pick in 2015, bounced back from a three-interception performance at Minnesota by throwing for 332 yards and three touchdowns to rally Tampa Bay to a 25-23 win over the New York Giants on Sunday. He connected with each of his tight ends -- Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard -- for TD passes last week but Mike Evans is his favorite target with 19 catches for 227 yards and two scores. Injured linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander are both expected to sit out their second straight game.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 5.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
* Over is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers last 7 Thursday games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Patriots at a rate of 58 percent and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals action.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-08-2017, 08:54 AM

Essential Week 5 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (Pick, 39.5)

The Browns opened as 1.5 point favorites – not something you see too often for an 0-4 team. Since 1985, there have been only 40 cases of winless after Week 4 entering a game as the Vegas favorite. Those teams went 19-20-1 ATS and 25-15 straight up.

LINE HISTORY: The Browns are no longer faves to win this game. Bookmakers adjusted the line down to a pick ‘em although there are still some shops listed Cleveland as 1-point chalk. The total is opened at 39.5 and can be found still at that number or half a point lower.

TRENDS:

*The Browns are 1-3 ATS this season and 6-23-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
*The Under is 7-0 in the Browns’ last seven home games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8, 43.5)

The stats say Pitt’s defense is among the best stopper units in the league. The defense ranks second yards allowed, scoring, pass defense and sacks but the competition has been less than impressive. The Steelers’ defensive numbers have been earning playing against the 30th, 29th, 28th and 19th- best scoring offenses in the league.

LINE HISTORY: Pittsburgh opened as high as 9-point chalk and can now be found at -8. The total opened at 44 and is now floating around 42.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
*The Under is 20-7 in Pitt’s last 27 games overall.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39.5)

The Bills are making fools out of many league prognosticators you figured the team was rebuilding when they traded away Sammy Watkins and let cornerback Stephen Gilmore go in free agency. The Pats picked up Gilmore in free agency by signing the DB to five-year, $65 million contract.

After four weeks, the Bills own a top 10 defense in the league thanks in large part to a rebuilt secondary with starring E.J. Gaines, who came over from the Rams in the Watkins trade, and rookie first round pick Tre’Davious White. Buffalo enters Week 5 as one of only two undefeated ATS teams in the league this season at 4-0.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened as 3-point faves and have stayed there for most of the year. The total opened as high as 39.5 and most shops are now dealing 38.5.

TRENDS:

*The Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The Under is 7-1 in Cincy’s last eight games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 44.5)

Indy backers who’ve been crying themselves to sleep every night thinking about the good ole’ days when No. 18 was under center get a chance to see Peyton Manning again this weekend.
The five-time NFL MVP is back in town for the unveiling of his statue outside Lucas Oil Stadium and he’s invited former teammates like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk and Dwight Freeney to name just a few.

At least the home fans will have something to cheer about on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened between 1.5 and 2.5 chalk but just about all shops are dealing 1.5 entering the weekend. The total was bet up from the opening number of 43 to 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The Under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven home games.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+3, 43.5)

Dolphins fans have been waiting a long, long time for this season home opener. Hurricane Irma drop kicked the original Week 1 home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers all the way to the bye week and pushing Miami’s first home game to this weekend, five weeks into the season.

The Fish have scored just 25 points in three games and didn’t find the end zone in either of their last two games.

Titans starting QB Marcus Mariota is questionable meaning there could be a Matt Cassel sighting this weekend.

LINE HISTORY: The game opened at Miami +3 and that’s where it’s stayed all week. The total opened at 43 and it’s moved up a half point to 43.5.

TRENDS:

*The Titans 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 road games.
*Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home games.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)

The Cardinals find themselves in a tricky position. The offensive line can’t hold protection long enough to allow quarterback Carson Palmer to throw the ball down field – something that is a staple of Bruce Arians’ offense.

Meanwhile, since losing David Johnson, the Cards can’t get their ground game going. Arizona is last in the league in rushing yards per game and yards per carry. Philly also possesses the league’s second best run defense. If you can find a book offering a game prop on times Palmer gets sacked on Sunday, we suggest you take the over.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 6.5-point home faves and there are still 6.5 and some 6s on the board. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet down to 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cards are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with winning records.
*Arizona is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
*The Over is 7-2 in the Eagles’ last nine games overall.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3, 44.5)

The Chargers have made a change to their kicker and bringing back veteran Nick Novak. Rookie kicker Younghoe Koo made only three of his first six kicks two of his misses happened late in the fourth quarter with two different games in the balance.

Los Angeles cut Kim and signed Novak, who was the team’s kicker from 2011 to 2014. Novak was with the Texans last year but was a training camp cut in August.

LINE HISTORY: The line has bounced from 3 to 3.5 and all the way up to 4 and most shops are dealing Giants -3.5 or -3 with added juice. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Chargers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
*The Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The under is 5-0 in New York’s last five home games.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 42.5)

The Detroit Lions are getting hit by the injury bug. Seven of their starters are questionable for Sunday’s game against the visiting Panthers – including three offensive linemen. Beat writers for the Lions are expecting all seven to suit up but how effective each player will be is another question.

LINE HISTORY: This spread has been under a field goal all week and appears to be settling at Lions -2.5. The total has seen a bit more movement. It reached as high as 44 and as low as 42 and most shops are dealing 43 entering the weekend.

TRENDS:

*Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
*The Under is 11-4 in the Lions’ last 15 games overall.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 47.5)

The Seahawks won’t have starting cornerback Jeremy lane in this game against the league’s top offense. They are hopeful to get starting left tackle Rees Odhiambo back who took a nasty blow to the chest and had to overnight at a local hospital on Sunday night.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 1.5-point home chalk and the line went up to 2.5 but has come back down to 1.5. The total opened at 45.5 but has been bet up two points to 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
*The Over is 6-0 in the Rams’ last six games.
*The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between the two sides.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-3, 39)

Quarterback Derek Carr is not available in this game, which means EJ Manuel will be starting under center for the Raiders. Manuel’s teams (Raiders and Bills) are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in his last five starts. Oddsmakers told Covers Carr is worth between 4 and 5 points to the Raiders line for this game – meaning, Oakland would have been a 7 or 8 point fave if Carr was healthy and available.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 2.5-point faves and the line got bet up to the field goal spread. The total opened at 40 and has been moved down to 39.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
*The Ravens are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5, 40)

The Dallas Cowboys are hoping a matchup against the Green Bay Packers can kick-start their dragging offense. Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliot ran for a combined 282 yards on 40 carries in two games against the Packers last season. The Cowboys scored 31 and 30 points respectively in those two games.

LINE HISTORY: The line has bounced all week between Dallas -2.5 and -1.5. Most shops are dealing ‘Boys -2.5 or -2 now. The total is hanging at 52 or 52.5 although a few books did go as high as 53.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning records.
*The Packers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The Over is 5-0 in the Pack’s last five away dates.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (Pick, 45)

There’s no question rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson has made the Texans offense more dynamic. Houston’s high point total in a game last season was 27. The Texans have scored 30 and 57 points in Watson’s last two starts.

Last week’s 57-point outburst set a new franchise mark for most points scored in a game, although it did come against Tennessee – a team Houston has set most of its single-game offensive records against.

Keep an eye on totals for Houston with Watson at the helm. Houston had built a reputation as an under team last season and for the first two games this season. The totals will start to soar if Watson continues to put up big numbers.

LINE HISTORY: The Texans opened as 1.5-point home dogs but the line has been bet to either a pick or Houston -1. The total opened as high as 47 and is now down to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS this season and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
*The Over is 5-2 in the Chiefs’ last seven games overall.

**Udog** · 10-08-2017, 09:01 AM

NFL

Sunday, October 8

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Chiefs at Texans
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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-1, 45)

The NFL's lone unbeaten team at the quarter pole, the Kansas City Chiefs put their perfect record on the line when they visit the Houston Texans and rookie sensation Deshaun Watson on Sunday night. It will mark a short turnaround for Kansas City, which needed a last-second field goal to edge the Washington Redskins on Monday night.

The Texans have been a different team since handing the keys to the offense to Watson, who accounted for five touchdowns in last week's 57-14 demolition of visiting Tennessee, but star defensive lineman J.J. Watt cautioned against getting carried away by the performance. "I mean, we're 2-2. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here," Watt said. "It's not like we're the ones that are 4-0, so we've got to be a little bit tempered with that. But we're very excited." Quarterback Alex Smith has played superbly for the Chiefs, who have scored at least 21 second-half points in three of their four victories, but is wary of the challenge presented by Houston. "They have one of the best D-lines in football. A couple of the most disruptive guys in football up there," Smith said. Throw that together on the road with the noise, they are tough. ... We know what we are getting into.”

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-5) - Texans (0) + home field (-3) = Chiefs +2

LINE HISTORY: The undefeated Chiefs opened the week as 1-point road chalk but the line jumped the fence to Texans -1 Friday night. The total hit the betting board at 45 and has yet to move off the opening number.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Kansas City (4-0 SU/ATS) is the only undefeated team in the league and they must now travel on a short week and play their second straight primetime national TV game. The Texans have become a much better offensive team with rookie Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Houston scored has scored 90 points in their past two games (8.4 yards per pass) after managing just 20 points (3.5 ypp) in their first two games this season.” Steve Merrill.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We've taken smart money on both sides of the Sunday nighter. Every time we move to Chiefs -1 or -1.5, smart action brings it back to the opener (PK) pretty quickly. The wiseguys certainly like the under, and why not with these teams, which has pushed the total down to 45. The handle currently has 54 percent of the money on Kansas City and 73 percent on the under.” Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Chiefs - QB Alex Smith (Probable, Ankle), OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (Questionable, Knee), OL Eric Fisher (Questionable, Back), DL Bennie Logan (Questionable, Knee), OL Parker Ehinger (Questionable, Knee), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, Hip), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Late Oct, Groin).

Texans - LB Ben Heeney (Questionable, Knee), LB Whitney Mercilus (Questionable, Ankle), C Kyle Fuller (Questionable, Hamstring), DE Chris Covington (Questionable, Knee), CB Kareem Jackson (Questionable, Hamstring), G Xavier Su’a-Filo (Questionable, Knee), CB Marcus Burley (Questionable, Knee), C Greg Mancz (Questionable, Knee).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Smith has played with the label of "game manager" for years, but he has eight touchdowns versus zero interceptions and leads the league in both passer rating (124.2) and completing percentage (76.0). Rookie running back Kareem Hunt has rushed for more than 100 yards three times while amassing 659 yards from scrimmage -- the second-highest total by a rookie through four games in league history. Tight end Travis Kelce, tied with Tyreek Hill for the team lead with 21 catches, had his second 100-yard game and scored his second TD against Washington. Kansas City's defense is surrendering a lot of yards but has limited the damage to 19.3 points per game.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Watson, who guided Clemson to the national championship in January, threw for 283 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for another score to earn AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. DeAndre Hopkins is Watson's favorite target with 31 receptions, but fellow wideout Will Fuller returned from injury to make a splashy debut against the Titans with a pair of touchdowns among his four catches. Running back Lamar Miller scored his first two touchdowns of the season last week, piling up 131 yards from scrimmage, while rookie D'Onta Foreman provides a solid complement. Texas ranks fifth overall in yards surrendered (291.5) but yields 22.0 points per contest.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Texans are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games in Week 5.

* Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games.

* Over is 7-0 in Texans last 7 games following a ATS win.

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road Chiefs at a rate of 58 percent and the Over is picking up 59 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2017, 08:39 AM

NFL

Monday, October 9

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Vikings at Bears
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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, 40)

The Chicago Bears have made a quarterback change while the Minnesota Vikings hope to follow suit on Monday when the NFC North rivals meet at Soldier Field. Second overall draft pick Mitchell Trubisky will make his NFL debut after offseason acquisition Mike Glennon committed four turnovers in Chicago's 35-14 loss to Green Bay on Sept. 28, while Sam Bradford aims to return after sustaining a knee injury in Minnesota's season opener.

"I feel like I'm ready," the 23-year-old Trubisky said. "I'm excited. I'm just going to take it day by day and prepare as hard as I possibly can for every single look and situation we can get on Monday." Trubisky faces a tall order against an aggressive Vikings' defense, which sacked Matthew Stafford six times in a 14-7 loss to Detroit on Sunday and ranks No. 1 in the league in third-down defense (25.6 percent conversion rate). The Vikings were dealt a brutal blow with the season-ending ACL injury to promising rookie Dalvin Cook in that contest, while Case Keenum completed just 16 of 30 passes for 219 yards. Bradford was limited in his return to practice on Thursday, but coach Mike Zimmer told reporters that "If he's ready to play, he'll play."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (-1.5) - Chicago (5.5) + home field (-3) = Minnesota -1

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 2-point road chalk and that number has been bet up to 3. The total hit the betting boards at 40.5 and has been bet down to 40.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Biggest question up on the air is the status on Vikings’ QB Sam Bradford, who is just 1-2 SU and ATS in his career adjacent the Bears. Meanwhile, backup QB Case Keenum is just 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS against division foes, including 0-6 ATS as a favorite. The other question is whether Chicago can improve on its 5-12 ATS mark at home of late in Monday night games.” - Marc Lawrence

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - RB Jerick McKinnon (Probable, Ankle), S Andrew Sendejo (Questionable, Shoulder), DT Shamar Stephen (Questionable, Back), LB Eric Kendricks (Questionable, Illness), G Danny Isidora (Questionable, Knee), QB Sam Bradford (Questionable, Knee), T Rashod Hill (Questionable, Knee), DT Sharrif Floyd (Questionable Week 10, Knee), RB Dalvin Cook (I-R, Knee).

Bears - DE Akiem Hicks (Questionable, Foot), QB Mark Sanchez (Questionable, Neck), C Hroniss Grasu (Questionable, Hand), LB Willie Young (Out For Season, Tricep), LB Danny Trevathan (Eligible Week 6, Possible Suspension), LB Jerrell Freeman (Questionable Week 10, Concussion).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Signed to a three-year, $15 million deal, Latavius Murray finds himself thrust into the lead-back role after seeing Cook exit following his non-contact injury. Murray, who rushed seven times for 21 yards after the rookie departed, admitted this week that his ankle is not 100 percent following offseason surgery. While Minnesota lost one impact player, it will see the return of another as Michael Floyd has served his four-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. "I'm just going to be aggressive," the 6-foot-3, 220-pound Floyd said. "I'm an aggressive player. I'm going to go out there and make plays. That's just what I do. That's in me, and that's never going to stop."

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U): Chicago continues to rely heavily on its backfield, with Jordan Howard rolling up four rushing touchdowns while speedy Tarik Cohen ranks fourth among rookies with 331 yards from scrimmage and leads all NFL running backs with 24 receptions. Howard gashed Minnesota's defense in both encounters last season, rolling up 202 yards from scrimmage in a 20-10 win on Oct. 31 and adding 135 yards rushing in the finale. Cohen has 10 more receptions than Kendall Wright, who leads a banged-up wideout corps with 154 yards receiving. Tight end Zach Miller has been limited to just three catches on five targets in the last two games after reeling in 10 receptions in the first two.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games.

* Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

* Under is 9-2 in Vikings last 11 games in October.

* Under is 7-1 in Bears last 8 games following a ATS loss.

* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Chicago.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Vikings at a rate of 60 percent and the Under is picking up 51 percent of the totals action.

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**Udog** · 10-09-2017, 11:09 AM

NFL opening line report: Winless, broken Giants travel to Denver for Week 6
Patrick Everson

“You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room. They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers."

A pair of one-loss teams tangle to open Week 6 of the NFL season in a Thursday night clash. We check in on the opening line for that contest and three other matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Philadelphia is off to a solid start behind second-year quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trampled Arizona in Week 5, winning 34-7 as a 6-point home favorite, with Wentz throwing four touchdown passes.

Cam Newton weathered a media storm of his own making last week, then helped guide Carolina to a 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS mark, as well. The Panthers edged Detroit 27-24 as a 2-point road underdog Sunday.

“A great matchup that will really give us some insight as to how good these teams really are,” Cooley said. “Carolina has been quite impressive the last couple of weeks, more so than we thought they were capable of. The Eagles have been on the radar all year, but have been even more dominant than anticipated. These teams are very close in the power ratings, so we assign the home team some advantage and see where the bettors go with it.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

Kansas City is the league’s lone undefeated team, and Alex Smith is playing like an MVP candidate. The Chiefs (5-0 SU and ATS) dropped Houston 42-34 laying 2 points in the Week 5 Sunday nighter, getting three TD passes from Smith – who has no interceptions this year.

Pittsburgh entered the season among teams with the shortest odds to make the Super Bowl, but hasn’t looked anything like a championship squad. On Sunday, the Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) were 7.5-point home faves against Jacksonville and got run out of their own building, 30-9.

Since K.C. was in the Sunday night contest, Bookmaker is waiting until Monday to post this line.

“If the Chiefs play as expected Sunday night, and nothing out of the ordinary happens on the injury front, we’ll look to make them around field-goal favorites,” Cooley said. “The Steelers aren’t the team they displayed in Week 5, but there is certainly something amiss in Pittsburgh.”

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-9)

New York went 11-5 SU in the regular season last year to advance to the playoffs. Through five weeks of this season, the Giants are like Jacques Cousteau, still “In Search Of” their first victory. (You youngsters, go look up that reference if you need to.)

The Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) got an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown catch to take a 22-17 lead over San Diego early in the fourth quarter Sunday. But New York didn’t score the rest of the way, lost Beckham to a broken ankle and lost the game 27-22 as a 3-point home chalk.

Meanwhile, Denver (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, following a 16-10 Week 4 victory laying 3.5 points at home against Oakland.

“You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room,” Cooley said. “They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers. Going on the road to play in the altitude against a great defense is not what this team needed. Early action from the pros has moved this to -10.”

In fact, later Sunday night, the line jumped to 10.5 at Bookmaker.eu.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (no line)

Green Bay looks to be firing on all cylinders, certainly on offense, after reaching 35 points two weeks in a row. On Sunday at Dallas, the Packers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trailed 21-6 in the second quarter, but climbed out of that hole and left the Big D with a 35-31 victory catching 2.5 points. Aaron Rodgers capped the comeback with a 12-yard TD pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds remaining.

Minnesota (2-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 5 work to do, traveling to Chicago in the Monday night game. The Vikings should have quarterback Sam Bradford back tonight, but until that game wraps, Bookmaker.eu will hold off on setting the Pack-Vikes opening line.

“It appears as if Bradford is going to play Monday night, so we’ll see how he looks throwing the ball and moving around in the pocket,” Cooley said. “Still, it’s unlikely we’ll make Minnesota a favorite. Aaron Rodgers is just playing too well right now, and the betting public is fully aware of that fact. The Vikings will likely be short home ‘dogs when this line is released Monday night.”

**Udog** · 10-10-2017, 07:38 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 6 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

The Patriots will have a few extra days to get ready for the Jets after playing Thursday night in Week 5.

Game to bet now

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-3)

What's up with Ben Roethlisberger? The face of the Steelers franchise for the last decade seems like he needs a career change, if his comments after last Sunday’s no-touchdown, five-interception game are any indication.

“Maybe I don’t have it anymore,” the QB said after Ben and the Steelers were roasted at home by Jacksonville.

Whatever it is that Roethlisberger has managed to lose, he had better find it in a hurry because the undefeated Chiefs are waiting. From a record standpoint (the Steelers are still in first place in the mediocre AFC North) the 3-point line might make sense, but expect KC money to soon flood in as Roethlisberger’s comments make their way into the consciousness of the betting public. KC is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, and betting on streaks to end have depleted a lot of bank accounts over the years.

Game to wait on

New England at New York Jets (+9.5)

Tank this, say the Jets, who have to be considered the biggest surprise in the league so far. At 3-2 the NYJ are more than in the mix in a solid AFC East. And if New York can get it done against a shaky Patriots team this coming Sunday, it’ll be game on in the division.

That’s a big if, and the entire NFL is waiting for Bill Belichick to straighten out his defense and begin to dominate again. The Pats will have had a few extra days to get ready for this one after their OK-but-not-great performance last Thursday at Tampa Bay.

The Jets, meanwhile, have taken full advantage of their easy schedule and have put together a three-game win streak. It might be useful to sit this one out for a bit and wait for a line move. If heavy money comes down on NE, books might adjust the vig if they don’t want to take on the extra half-point to make it a 10-point line.

Total to watch

Miami at Atlanta (47.5)

Dead last. That’s where the Dolphins rank in offense, which about where a team that can’t pass the ball or run the ball should be. The fact that Miami is 2-2 is somewhat of a minor miracle, and a testament to the team’s ability to stop the run.

Whether they can stop Atlanta’s passing attack is another question, however. The Dolphins will probably have to score in the 20's to cover the 47.5, and that’s a tall order for a club that has barely averaged 10 points per game so far.

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