NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 ( Thur., Sept. 28 - Mon., Sept. 25)

[Udog]

Sunday of NFL Week 4 seeing plenty of sharp action and line movement
Patrick Everson

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3

These AFC West rivals got out to strong starts the first two weeks of the season, then had lackluster road performances in Week 3 losses. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Washington and lost 27-10 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game, and is now on the road for the third time in four weeks.

Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Buffalo and looked nothing like the team that disassembled Dallas in Week 2. The Broncos scored only three second-half points – on a field goal midway through the third quarter – in a 26-16 loss as a 3.5-point chalk.

“It looks like all Denver money across the board,” Bernanke said of the line jumping from -1 to -3 before stabilizing the last couple of days. “Even the moneyline moved, -125 to -150 on Denver. I think this is due to the fact that Oakland’s disaster on Sunday night was in full view of everybody, an isolated game. Denver’s loss was hidden on Sunday amongst all the games. People notice something on national TV a heck of a lot more than they noticed something mixed in the Sunday slate.”

Bernanke said both sharps and the public were initially on Denver as both groups drove the line up for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. And the moneyline on Denver inched up to -160 by Saturday night at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip.

“This could be one of our biggest decisions of the weekend,” he said.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6

Dallas enters this 1 p.m. ET contest off a short week after playing the Monday nighter on the road. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) bounced back from that aforementioned loss at Denver to beat Arizona 28-17 laying 3 points in Week 3.

Los Angeles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) held on in a shootout at San Francisco in the Week 3 Thursday night game. The Rams got outscored 19-7 in the fourth quarter, blowing almost all of a 14-point lead but holding on for a 41-39 victory giving 3 points.

“We opened this game Dallas -7.5 on Tuesday, and later Tuesday evening, we got a sharp bet on the Rams +7.5, so we moved Dallas to -7,” Jerome said. Market moves then led TopBet to go to 6.5, then 6. “It’s a very surprising decision to us, as 63 percent of the cash and 60 percent of bets are taking the Rams.”

CG opened the Cowboys -8 and saw that number bet down to 6.5.

“Sharp and public money both on the Rams (early),” Bernanke said. “I think this is people playing an angle. The Rams had nine days to prepare, Dallas had the short week (playing) Monday night. That’s an angle people play all the time, so it’s reflected in the betting.”

That said, don’t be surprised to see the public push Dallas back up this morning.

“The buyback on America’s team, it’s almost inevitable,” Bernanke said.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

New York is now officially desperate for a victory, with the calendar turning to October and Ben McAdoo’s squad still seeking its first W. The Giants (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) at least got close last week, losing 27-24 as a 5-point underdog at Philadelphia, which got a 61-yard Jake Elliott field goal as time expired.

Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) lost at Minnesota 34-17 in a pick ‘em game in Week 3. Bettors eyeing this 4:05 p.m. ET matchup seemed to find the Bucs’ loss more problematic than New York’s setback.

“Less than 2 hours after we opened the game on Sunday night, we got a sharp bet on the Giants +4.5 and moved Tampa Bay to -3.5 (-105),” Jerome said, noting TopBet went to 3 by Monday afternoon. “Since then, we have made small adjustments on the juice. Seventy-three percent of cash and 77 percent of bets are taking the Giants.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5; Move: -3

In a Week 3 full of underdogs covering and several winning outright, Pittsburgh was arguably the biggest upset victim. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Chicago as 7-point favorites and left with a 23-17 overtime loss.

Baltimore was sent across the pond to London last week, though it looked like the team didn’t actually make its flight. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) got boatraced by Jacksonville 44-7 as a 3-point fave.

“I think it’s gonna be a great game,” Bernanke said, noting meetings in this rivalry are often decided by one score. “This has been all public and sharp money (early) on the Steelers, the reason being Baltimore I think got a little bit of a hosejob, playing last week in London and not getting a bye. Bettors are noticing that, and this could be a flat spot for Baltimore.”

This contest kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2

Los Angeles is still looking for its first win of the season, hoping perhaps a third straight game in its new digs will prove helpful. The Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) did not score in the second half last week, tumbling to Kansas City 24-10 as a 3-point home ‘dog.

Philadelphia easily got the most miraculous win of Week 3. Jake Elliott hit a 61-yard field goal as time expired, lifting the Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) to a 27-24 home victory over the New York Giants as a 5-point chalk.

“We’re seeing a lot of money on this game. All sharp money on the Chargers, and over the counter, public money is kind of even,” Bernanke said. “The Chargers, this is their third straight home game, so bettors are buying into the fact they can’t lose three straight home games. And the Eagles are off a very emotional win against the Giants, division rivals, so a letdown spot possible.”

TopBet.eu opened the Chargers a 1-point home ‘dog and saw that line quickly jump the fence for this 4:05 p.m. ET start.

“On Sunday night, we got a wiseguy bet on Chargers +1, so we moved them to -1,” Jerome said, adding that when running back Melvin Gordon (knee) was upgraded to probable Thursday, the line jumped to Chargers -2, then went to 2.5 on Friday.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 4 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Kansas City +6.5, 575

5) Cincinnati, -3, 595- W

4) New Orleans, -3, 705- W

3) NJ Giants, +3, 726- W

2) LA Chargers, -1.5, 774- L

1) Denver, -2.5, 963- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 10-13


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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Saints 20, Dolphins 0— Miami has played three games; in LA, New Jersey and London; they have scored 2 TD’s on 29 drives- difficult to assess how much of this is ineptitude and how much of it is the distractions they’ve had so far, combined with the hurricane messing up life in south Florida. But they got shut out BY THE SAINTS!!!, a huge red flag. I honestly think backup QB Matt Moore is better than Jay Cutler.

Panthers 33, Patriots 30— Carolina had only 3 TD’s on 28 drives coming in; they had four TD’s on nine drives in this upset win. NE allowed 42-20-33-33 points in first four games, and three of those were at home, Under Rivera, Panthers are 20-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Since 2010, over is 39-20 in Patriot home games.

Rams 35, Cowboys 30—Dallas is now 0-8 in game the week after their last 8 Monday night games. LA scored 142 points in its first four games (12 TD’s, 14 FGAs on 41 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4/6.8 yards/pass attempt. Rams’ improvement on offense over last year is astounding- they also had a 13-yard edge in field position. Greg Zuerlein had seven FG’s for the 3-1, first-place Rams.

Lions 14, Vikings 7— Detroit has now won three of last four visits here; Lions’ only TD drive was 29 yards. Minnesota lost three fumbles (-3 in TO’s), also lost rookie RB Cook with a torn ACL. Vikings scored 9-7 points in their losses, 29-34 in their wins.

A bettor at the Mirage in Las Vegas made a six-figure first half wager on the Broncos; when that won, he rolled it over on the Seahawks -12 in the Sunday night game. I’m writing this during the 2nd half of the 4:00 games, so we’ll see how he makes out later on tonite.

Texans 57, Titans 14—Deshaun Watson was the 12th player taken in last spring’s draft; the Jets need a good young QB- they passed on him. Think a lot of teams would like a do-over on that draft.

NFL teams that turn the ball over five times almost never win. Titans had turned ball over once in their first three games, but were -4 in turnovers in this game. Houston has now scored 90 points in its last two games, both against good teams, and with a rookie QB.

Jets 23, Jaguars 20 OT— This was like old-time football; rushing yardage was 256-175, Jets, who scored two TD’s, on runs of 75-69 yards. Jaguars completed only 15-35 passes, averaged 3.8 yards per pass attempt, which is poor. Under Bowles, New York is 11-7 vs spread at home. Total yardage in this game was 471-311, Jets, but Jax did score a defensive TD.

Under is 11-9 so far this week, as far as individual team over/unders.

Bengals 31, Browns 7— Bengals have now beaten Cleveland six times in row, winning last three visits to Lake Erie, by 34-13-24 points. Under is 18-8 in Cincy’s last 26 road games. Cleveland is 3-11-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a home underdog; they missed a 48-yard FG when game was scoreless and things got worse from there- they averaged 3.9 ypa.

Steelers 26, Ravens 9— Ravens were +7 in TO’s in winning their first two games; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in two games since then. Under is 17-9 in their last 26 home games. Steelers ran ball for 173 yards here, after running it for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg). Under is 20-7 in Pitt’s last 27 road games. Baltimore has only six plays of 20+ yards all season, 2nd-least in league.

Bills 23, Falcons 17— Key play of this game was a “fumble” that really looked like Ryan threw the ball as he was hit, but it was ruled a fumble/TD for the Bills. Buffalo has allowed only 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up four TD’s on 42 drives; holding Falcons to 17 points on carpet is impressive. Atlanta is just 4-11 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn. Six of the eight 1:00 games Sunday were won SU by the underdog.

Buccaneers 25, Giants 23— Giants are 0-4, running ball 64 times for 193 yards, scoring 7 TD’s on 41 drives- their last two losses were by total of 5 points. Big Blue has been outscored 53-17 in first half of games; they have 43-42 edge in 2nd half. 8 for 17 on 3rd down was much better than 11-34 in first three games. 0-4 Chargers visit Swamp Stadium next week. Bucs are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite.

Eagles 26, Chargers 24— Philly ran ball for 214 yards, killed off last 6:44 of game by running ball for four first downs after Chargers closed to within 26-24. Philly is 3-1 despite playing only one home game so far; they were 9-16 on 3rd down, are 30-59 on 3rd down for season- very good. Chargers are 0-4 with three losses by 3 or less points; they visit 0-4 Giants next week.

Cardinals 18, 49ers 15 (OT)— There were no TD’s in game until Palmer hit Fitzgerald with 0:32 left in OT to end things. Each team had ball only once in 10:00 OT; 49ers ate up 7:36 and kicked their 5th FG of game to take 15-12 lead, but Arizona drove 75 yards in seven plays for the win. 49ers haven’t scored a TD in three of their four games; they scored 39 points in the other game, a 41-39 loss to the Rams.

Broncos 16, Raiders 10— There were ugly rumors on the Interweb over the weekend that the Raider O-line wasn’t happy that Derek Carr wouldn’t kneel for national anthem with his teammates last Monday night in Washington, so they tanked couple of plays so he would get clocked and “learn a lesson”. Hopefully those rumors aren’t true.

Carr hurt his back Sunday in Denver, was replaced by EJ Manuel. If he can’t play anymore, the Raiders’ season is screwed.

Broncos are 10-2 in last 12 series games; Oakland lost five of last six visits to Denver.

Seahawks 46, Colts 18—Game was tied in 3rd quarter, before Seahawks broke it open by scoring three TD’s in a 5:56 span- their defense scored two TD’s in the game. Seattle is 27-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll; they’re 9-3 in last 12 games when laying double digits. Colts’ offense has allowed four defensive TD’s in two road games, losing 46-9/46-18.

In the second half, Seahawks ran 40 plays for 337 yards, scored four TD’s. In one half.

As for the guy in Las Vegas who bet six figures on Denver in the first half today, then doubled down on Seattle in this game, I’m guessing it is fun to be hanging out with him tonight.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 2

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Washington at Kansas City
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Washington at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 49.5)

Washington vies for their second straight dominating prime-time performance against an AFC West opponent on Monday night when they face the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Washington handed the Oakland Raiders their first loss of the season under the lights on Sunday night, forcing three turnovers and limiting Derek Carr. and Co. to just 128 total yards of offense in a 27-10 rout.

"There was some fundamental clinic tape in that game that I am very, very impressed with," Washington coach Jay Gruden said of his defense that limited the Raiders to 32 rushing yards and did not allow them to convert on third down last week (0-for-11). "Now the standards are set very high around here now. The ability to maintain it is going to be critical for us." That improved defense could have a tall task in corralling electrifying rookie Kareem Hunt, who stepped in for the injured Spencer Ware in the preseason and leads the NFL with 401 rushing yards. The third-round selection ran for 172 yards in a 24-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week and is the first rookie since 1981 to record six touchdowns through his first three career games. Kansas City averages a league-leading 162.0 rushing yards, and its 397.3 yards of total offense is third-best in league.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Washington (-0.5) - Kansas City (5.5) + home field (-3) = Kansas City -8

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 7-point home chalk and that number dropped to 6.5 on Monday before returning to the opening number later in the week. The total hit the betting board 49.5 and has yet to move.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Redskins are coming off a dominating home win last Sunday night versus the Raiders, but now Washington must travel and play another national TV night game against an AFC West opponent. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL this season. Washington QB Kirk Cousins missed two days of practice earlier in the week due to the birth of his first child." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - WR Jamison Crowder (Probable, Hamstring), TE Jordan Reed (Probable, Shoulder), RB Samaje Perine (Probable, Hand), S D.J. Swearinger (Questionable, Hamstring), DL Jonathan Allen (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Matt Ioannidis (Questionable, Shoulder), S Montae Nicholson (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Josh Norman (Questionable, Shoulder), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ribs), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (Early Nov, Abdominal).

Kansas City - OL Parker Ehinger (Probable, Knee), OL Eric Fisher (Questionable, Back), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (Questionable, Groin), Ol Cameron Erving (Questionable, Calf), LB Dee Ford (Questionable, Hip), WR De’Anthony Thomas (Questionable, Shoulder).
Kirk Cousins threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns last week while boasting a 150.7 passer rating to earn NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Fresh off his best start of the season, Cousins could also see the returns of two key offensive cogs on Monday as tight end Jordan Reed (ribs, shoulder) and running back Rob Kelley (ribs) each have expressed confidence in getting back to action after a one-game absence. Their respective understudies did quite well in their stead, with veteran tight end Vernon Davis reeling in a touchdown pass and fourth-year back Chris Thompson amassing 188 all-purpose yards and a score in last week's rout. Washington's ground game could pay dividends against a Kansas City defense that is 21st in yards per carry (4.3) and 19th in rushing yards per game (111.7).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Kansas City has recorded at least one touchdown of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games, with 11 scores in total coming in that stretch. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," quarterback Alex Smith said. Second-year wide receiver Tyreek Hill (team-leading 16 receptions, 253 yards) was responsible for six of those touchdowns while Hunt has three. Tight end Travis Kelce, who has one of those scores, is looking to rebound after a one-reception, one-yard performance on the heels of making eight grabs for 103 yards and a touchdown the previous week.

TRENDS:

* Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.

* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 Washington's last 6 Monday games.

* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 games in October.

* Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Chiefs at a rate of 56 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson

“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.

Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”

As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.

Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.

“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”

By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.

Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.

“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.