NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 ( Thur., Sept. 28 - Mon., Sept. 25)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 28 - Monday, October 2

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Steelers take early money as road faves in Week 4
Patrick Everson

"The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too."

Week 3 of the NFL season was a huge one for the underdogs, who had gone 11-4 ATS heading into the Monday nighter, including seven outright winners. Will the pups keep it up in Week 4? We check in on the opening lines of four matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+2)

These two teams are coming off stunning losses in Week 3, heading into this clash of NFC North rivals at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Pittsburgh, among the favorites to challenge New England for the AFC title, was on the road for the second time in three weeks and had another substandard showing against a subpar outfit. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) lost to Chicago 23-17 in overtime as a 7-point favorite.

It was arguably much worse for Baltimore, especially since the flight home was far longer. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Jacksonville’s second home – London – as a 3-point favorite and left on the very short end of a 44-7 trampling.

“The public doesn’t want to bet on Baltimore. The offense is mundane, and the squares don’t like to bet on good defenses,” Cooley said. “At some point, we’ll probably see some value players get behind a Ravens team that was absolutely embarrassed. The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too.”

Indeed, the number bumped to Steelers -2.5 Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-8)

New England has played two games at home this season and is fortunate to have split those contests. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got all they could handle from Houston on Sunday, needing a last-minute Tom Brady-to-Brandin Cooks 25-yard touchdown pass to post a 36-33 win as a heavy 13.5-point home chalk.

Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen to a broken foot in Week 2, and the hits kept coming in Week 3 as Kelvin Benjamin left in the first half with a knee injury. Benjamin’s injury is not thought to be serious, but the Panthers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got drubbed by New Orleans 34-13 as a 5-point home fave.

“We were certainly going to be north of a touchdown, and this one could shoot up sooner rather than later,” Cooley said of the line for Panthers-Pats. “It will be interesting to see if the Panthers can get out of their offensive funk.”

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (no line)

Both these AFC West rivals were road favorites in Week 3 and ended up on the short side, on the scoreboard and for bettors. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) had its roll slowed at Washington in a 27-20 loss as a 3.5-point favorite, while Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) – coming off an impressive home win over Dallas – looked unimpressive in a 26-16 loss at Buffalo laying 3.5 points.

Since Oakland was in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu held off on setting a line, though Cooley had an opinion.

“Look for the Broncos to be short chalk at home,” he said. “Denver certainly has a distinct advantage at Mile High, but our ratings have the Raiders a few spots higher in the pecking order.”

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)

Kansas City is looking a lot like the team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season last year. For the second time in three weeks, the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) won and cashed on the road, this time besting the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10 as a 3-point chalk.

Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) also looked plenty sharp in Week 3, knocking off Oakland 27-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog in the Sunday night contest.

“Again, we’ll make sure nothing significant occurs regarding injuries with Washington, but Kansas City will be a healthy favorite regardless,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs look to be one of the best teams in the league early in this season, and bettors are taking notice. We’ll open K.C. as 6- to 7-point chalk.”

Indeed, when the line opened for this Monday night contest it hit the board with the Chiefs installed as 7-point home favorites.

[Udog]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 4 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-4)

Has a team ever stayed in the locker room for the national anthem and then decided not to come out for the game? It may be getting close to that point for the 0-3 Giants, who had hopes of making the NFC East into a two-team race with the Cowboys and now are rotting at the bottom of the division.

The main problem for the Giants is that they can’t score (fewest points in the conference), and the main problem for the offense it that it can’t move the ball on the ground. At all. New York broke out with 24 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia on Sunday, but had scored only 13 total in the previous 11 periods.

An 0-3 hole is bad enough, but 0-4 is toxic for a team that was thinking division title less than a month ago.

Game to wait on

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+2.5)

Seems like every game these teams have played for the last decade has featured a line in the 2.5 to 3.5-point range. This one is no different.

Neither team has shown enough to be considered the early favorite to be the alpha dog in the AFC North, and the Ravens in particular are wondering what hit them in London last Sunday when the Jags put a 37-point beating on them. Baltimore is not that used to those types of beatdowns. Ravens fans have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Joe Flacco, who threw for just 28 yards on Sunday and was picked twice before giving way to Ryan Mallett.

Maybe the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Steelers’ shaky defense, which gave up 220 of their own on the ground in losing to the Bears.

Might be worth waiting on this one to see if any early money surge causes the books to budge on the half-point one way or the other.

Total to watch

Buffalo at Atlanta (48.5)

Interesting study in contrasts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, where the high-flying Falcons are off to a 3-0 start and hope to start creating a little separation in the NFC South. The Falcons have shrugged off their Super Bowl loss and again boast one of the best offense in the league.

The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-1 and doing it with defense. Two of their games have gone under, and Sunday’s victory over Denver barely covered the minuscule 40 posted by books. Buffalo has a very soft schedule after this one, and doesn’t have to face the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots until December.

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 28

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CHICAGO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 182-128 ATS (+41.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 1

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) vs. MIAMI (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (2 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-78 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (2 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-178 ATS (-69.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 3) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 2

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WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 28

9:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games


Sunday, October 1

10:30 AM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

2:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. ATLANTA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DALLAS
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

5:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing NY Giants

5:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games

5:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

9:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis


Monday, October 2

9:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Washington8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday's game
Bears (1-2) @ Packers (2-1)— Pack trailed all three games at halftime this year; they allowed a defensive TD in last two games. Green Bay won both its home games, by 8-3 points; they’re 12-2 in last 14 meetings; teams split last four games played here. Chicago got its first win last week, beating Steelers in OT; since 2012, Bears are 10-20-1 vs spread coming off a win, 5-12-1 in last 18 NFC North road games— they’re 7-8-1 as a road underdog under Fox, losing 29-7 (+7) at Tampa Bay in only road game this year. Packers are 15-8-2 vs spread in last 25 home games. Under is 12-6 in last 18 games at Lambeau Field. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread in divisional games. Under is 3-0 in Chicago games

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 28

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Bears at Packers
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)

The oldest rivalry in the NFL has become one-sided in recent years, something the Chicago Bears hope to change when they pay a visit to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night in a prime-time NFC North matchup. The Packers swept the season series last year en route to winning the division title and have captured six of the last seven matchups.

It will mark the 195th matchup between Chicago and Green Bay -- and the first where both teams are each coming off an overtime victory. Running back Jordan Howard's 19-yard touchdown run provided the exclamation point on the Bears' 23-17 victory over Pittsburgh, helping them avoid an 0-3 start for third straight season. Green Bay was seconds from a second straight defeat before Aaron Rodgers tossed a tying touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson, setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime in a 27-24 victory over visiting Cincinnati. The series could not be more evenly matched -- each team has won 93 times to go along with six ties.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+2.5) - Packers (-4) + home field (-3) = Packers -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as seven-point home favorites and by Wednesday evening many books were adding the hook to 7.5. The total hit the betting boards at 45.5 and has yet to budge.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A black-and-blue division matchup kicks off Thursday night at Lambeau Field in the NFL when the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. The Bears haven't won consecutive games since December of 2015, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS following a victory in that span. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Packers know they are 401-13 SU and 36-17 ATS at home in division play behind QB Aaron Rodgers. It appears there is only one way to look here." - Marc Lawrence.

INJURY REPORT:

Bears - LB Nick Kwiatkoski (Out, Chest), S Deon Bush (Questionable, (Hamstring), S Quintin Demps (Out, Arm), S Chris Prosinski (Questionable, Hamstring), OL Tom Compton (Probable, Hip), OL Hroniss Grasu (Questionable, Hand), OL Josh Sitton (Questionable, Ribs), LB Jerrell Freeman (I-R, Concussion), WR Kevin White (I-R, Shoulder), DB Deiondre' Hall (I-R, Hamstring), RB Ka'Deem Carey (I-R, Wrist), LS Patrick Scales (I-R, Knee), WR Cameron Meredith (I-R, ACL), C Eric Kush (I-R, Hamstring).

Packers - RB Joe Kerridge (Questionable, Calf), DE Mike Daniels (Questionable, Hip), CB Davon House (Doubtful, Quadriceps), WR Randall Cobb (Probable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Probable, Groin), RB Ty Montgomery (Probable, Wrist), T Kyle Murphy (I-R, Foot), LS Brett Goode (I-R, Hamstring), T Bryan Bulaga (Questionable, Ankle), T David Bakhtiari (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nick Perry (Questionable, Hand), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Concussion), T Jason Spriggs (I-R, Hamstring), LB Vince Biegel (Out, Foot), DT Montravius Adams (I-R, Foot), T Don Barclay (I-R, Ankle), CB Demetri Goodson (PUP, ACL), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Foot), S Marwin Evans (Questionable, Lower Body), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), CB Herb Waters (I-R, Shoulder).

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Chicago will try to run the ball for two reasons -- to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands and alleviate the pressure on quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for only 101 yards and a TD on 15-of-22 passing. The Bears rushed for 220 yards against the Steelers as Howard, despite dealing with an ailing shoulder, piled up 138 and two scores while electrifying rookie Tarik Cohen had 78 yards on 12 carries. With the wide receiver corps ravaged by injury, Howard and Cohen also led the team with five and four catches, respectively. Safety Quintin Demps broke his arm in Sunday's game, a blow for a defense that has only eight interceptions in each of the past two seasons.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games, although his passer rating is below 100 for only the third time in 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games, but he carved up the Bears for a career-best 162 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in December. The Packers are eighth in the league, allowing 296.7 yards per game.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall.
* Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Packers at a rate of 67 percent and the Over is picking up 64 percent of the totals action.


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[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
Monty Andrews

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

Jaguars' red-zone success vs. Jets' leaky downfield D

Two teams that outscored their opponents by a combined 51 points in Week 3 will lock horns this weekend as the New York Jets entertain Jacksonville. The Jaguars were the surprise of the weekend, rolling to a 44-7 throttling of the Baltimore Ravens in London, while the Jets stunned the football world by cruising to a 20-6 triumph over Miami. Jacksonville has the edge in this one according to oddsmakers, due at least in part to a sensational red-zone record through the first three weeks of the season.

Jacksonville came into the season facing serious question marks on offense, but quarterback Blake Bortles and rookie running back Leonard Fournette have put those concerns to rest - at least for now. The Jaguars come into Week 4 having scored touchdowns on two-thirds of their drives into the red-zone - putting them in the top third league-wide. Bortles already has six TD passes on the young season, while Fournette has three rushing scores to kick off his NFL career.

The Jets dominated play from start to finish against the Dolphins last week, surrendering only a last-second touchdown catch from DeVante Parker. But things haven't been so rosy overall, with New York surrendering touchdowns on 77.8 percent of opponent visits to the red zone. It's among the worst marks on the season, and represents a significant step back after the Jets allowed red-zone TDs on 56.9 percent of opponent red-zone trips in 2016.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 43)

Steelers' second-half stinginess vs. Ravens' reeling offense

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are both coming off stunning losses - and are looking for answers as they face off Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers lost a 23-17 overtime stunner to the Chicago Bears, while the Ravens were on the wrong end of a Jacksonville scoring spree overseas. This one is expected to be close - and that favors the Steelers, who have been one of the toughest teams to score against in the second half of games.

The Steelers were burned by a Jordan Howard rushing score in OT, but prior to that they had dominated teams after the half. Pittsburgh has allowed a paltry 17 points in the third and fourth quarters of their first three games of 2017, with the 5.7 second-half points per game against representing the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Steelers have been even more impressive over the past two contests, allowing a combined six points in the third and fourth quarters against Minnesota and Chicago.

That bodes poorly for a Baltimore offense that has come out of the halftime break a slumbering mess to start the year. The Ravens have scored a combined 13 points in the second half of their first three games, with seven of those coming on a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Jacksonville loss. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been the biggest culprit, amassing just 84 passing yards in the second half of two-plus games; he was pulled in London in favor of Ryan Mallett.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)

Titans' elite pass protection vs. Texans' leaky O-line

The Tennessee Titans' offense has come alive after a slow start to the season, and Marcus Mariota and Co. will look to carry that momentum into Sunday's AFC South encounter with the Houston Texans. Tennessee has scored 70 combined points in victories over the Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, and will look to tame another impressive defense on the strength of an offensive line that has managed to give Mariota all the time he needs to burn the opposition.

Tennessee boasted a top-12 pass protection unit last season, limiting foes to a 5.26 percent sack rate. Things have been a whole lot better through the first three weeks of the 2017 campaign, with Mariota going down on just 1.96 percent of dropbacks - the best rate in football. Blessed with more clean pockets than any starting quarterback in the NFL, Mariota has taken full advantage, completing 60 percent of his passes for 696 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception.

Rookie Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would probably give anything for protection like that. Unfortunately, he finds himself at the other end of the spectrum; Houston is surrendering sacks on a whopping 13.89 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in the league. And while many of those sacks were allowed in a season-opening loss to the Jaguars, the five sacks allowed per game is still miles ahead of the 1.9 mark Houston posted a season ago.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

Eagles' elite time of possession vs. Chargers' TOP turmoil

With Chip Kelly at the helm, the Philadelphia Eagles were perennially one of the worst teams in the NFL in time of possession. But this is a new team - and with it, a new set of habits as the Eagles look to take charge of a competitive NFC East with a win over the host Chargers. Philadelphia is off to a sensational start on offense, and will look to control the play against a Chargers team that hasn't had the ball nearly as much as it would like through the first three weeks of 2017.

With top-10 rankings in both passing (252.7) and rushing yards per game (119.3), it's easy to see why the Eagles have been able to control the ball so effectively. Philadelphia's 34:12 time-of-possession average ranks 12 seconds ahead of the runner-up Carolina Panthers; that's nothing new to the Eagles, who led the league in that category a season ago after finishing dead last in each of the previous three seasons.

The Chargers finished with a modest edge in time of possession last season (30:21), but will be hard-pressed to match that success in 2017. Los Angeles comes into the week ranked among the league's bottom feeders at just 27:19 per game. After ranking 26th in rushing yards per game a season ago, the Chargers are 27th through three games - and at a woeful 30.3-percent conversion rate on third down, Los Angeles isn't extending drives, either. A similar effort Sunday could lead to a one-sided TOP result.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 28

Chicago @ Green Bay

Game 101-102
September 28, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.211
Green Bay
137.756
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Over


Sunday, October 1

New Orleans @ Miami

Game 251-252
October 1, 2017 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
137.247
Miami
123.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 13 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Over

Carolina @ New England

Game 253-254
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.642
New England
139.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
49
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+9); Under

LA Rams @ Dallas

Game 255-256
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
127.553
Dallas
130.534
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 257-258
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.533
Minnesota
137.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 259-260
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.535
Houston
133.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+2 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ NY Jets

Game 261-262
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
133.897
NY Jets
132.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Under

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 263-264
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
128.429
Cleveland
127.395
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Under

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Game 265-266
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
133.551
Baltimore
127.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3); Under

Buffalo @ Atlanta

Game 267-268
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.398
Atlanta
145.490
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 13
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 8
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-8); Under

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

Game 269-270
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
133.365
Tampa Bay
128.481
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3); Over

Philadelphia @ LA Chargers

Game 271-272
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.510
LA Chargers
130.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 273-274
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
120.689
Arizona
132.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 11 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6 1/2); Under

Oakland @ Denver

Game 275-276
October 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
129.483
Denver
136.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Seattle

Game 277-278
October 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.468
Seattle
139.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 15 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 13
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-13); Over


Monday, October 2

Washington @ Kansas City

Game 279-280
October 2, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.236
Kansas City
145.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 11 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Sunday's games
Saints (1-2) vs Dolphins (1-1) (@ London)— Horrible travel schedule for Dolphins, who split a couple road games to open season, now head overseas after scoring 19-6 points (2 TD’s on 21 drives). Miami scored only 15 points in four red zone drives this year. Miami didn’t score LW until last play of game, then they missed PAT. Saints are on road for 3rd time in four weeks; they haven’t turned ball over yet (+3), but did allow 10+ yards per pass attempt in their two losses- they held Panthers to 4.2 in their win LW. Miami is 6-25 on 3rd down; they averaged 6.3/4.1 yds/pass attempt. NFC South teams are 8-15-1 in last 24 games as a favorite away from home.

Panthers (2-1) @ Patriots (2-1)— Carolina has only 3 TD’s on 28 drives this year, averaging 6.8/4.7/4.2 yds/pass attempt in their three games. Newton was sacked 10 times in last couple games; they’ve scored only 32 points in 8 red zone drives. Under Rivera, Panthers are 19-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Patriots scored 27-36-36 points so far (12 TD’s on 35 drives); they’re 39-24-3 in last 66 home games, but are 0-2 this year. NE is 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games vs NFC opponents. NE defense allowed 42-20-33 points in first three games, a red flag. Teams split six series games; Patriots are 1-2 here, with only win in 2001, Brady’s first year as starter. Since 2010, over is 38-20 in Patriot home games.

Rams (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Short week for Dallas after their Monday night win in Arizona; Cowboys are 0-7 SU/ATS after last seven MNF games, with four of those at home- their last post-Monday win was in ’08. Rams played last Thursday; they’ve got edge in rest/prep time. LA scored 107 points in first three games (10 TD’s, 7 FGAs on 30 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4 yards/pass attempt, but are stepping up in class here. Cowboys allowed 4.8/5.9/5.2 ypa in first three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a home favorite. Dallas won last three series games, by 27-34-3 points; Rams lost last three visits here- their last win in Dallas was in ’05. Last 4+ years. LA is 10-14-1 vs spread as a road underdog; all three of their games this year went over. NFC West teams are just 1-7 vs spread outside the division this season.

Lions (2-1) @ Vikings (2-1)— Minnesota backup QB Keenum put up big numbers (25-33/369) in Vikings’ win over Tampa LW; reality is there isn’t much difference between he and Bradford- as a Ram fan, I can attest to that. Minnesota is 2-0 at home, scoring 29-34 points (7 TD’s on 17 drives). Lions lost tough game at home to Falcons LW, coming up a yard short; Detroit is 11-14 vs spread on road under Caldwell; they won only road game this year, vs Giants on a Monday night. Lions are +6 in turnovers this year; they’re only NFL team this year to lose a games when they were +2 or better in turnovers. Detroit is 8-5 in last 13 series games; they won two of last three visits to Twin Cities. Vikings averaged 10.3/11.2 ypa in their wins, 3.7 in their loss.

Titans (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)—Houston is 8-2 in last ten series games; Titans lost last five visits here, by 24-6-24-14-7 points. Rookie QB Watson put up 33 points in Foxboro LW, averaging 8.3 ypa, converting 8-14 on 3rd down, but Texans have scored only 23 points on six red zone drives, which isn’t good. Houston lost field position in all three games so far, by 17-7-5 points. Tennessee scored 37-33 points in winning their last two games (7 TD’s on 24 drives); they won 37-16 in only road game, at Jacksonville. Houston is 2-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien; since ’09, they’re 4-10 as home dogs. Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 3-9 vs spread coming off a win, 1-0 this year. Over is 12-6 in Titans’ last 18 road games.

Jaguars (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)— Coughlin returns to Swamp Stadium as GM of Jaguars, who won 44-7 in England LW but didn’t take the usual bye after going overseas- this is first time they’ve done that. Field position has been a key in Jaguar games; winningn team has had 14+-yard edge in FP in all three of their games. Jags ran ball for 155-166 yards in their wins, 99 in their loss- they’re only 12-37 on 3rd down- they ask Bortles to manage the game and not make mistakes. Gang Green allowed 190-180 yards in first two games, then held Miami to 30 in LW’s upset win. Under Bowles, New York is 10-7 vs spread at home. Jets won last three series games, by ’09. 29-7-5 points; Jags’ last win was here in 2009.

Bengals (0-3) @ Browns (1-2)— Winless Bengals are road favorite vs Cleveland team they’ve beaten five times in row, winning last two visits to Lake Erie, by 37-3/23-10 scores. Cincy lost last two games by total of 7 points; they scored TD’s on both red zone drives LW, after going 0-6 (3 FG’s) on six RZ drives in first two games. Since 2013, Bengals are 6-8 as road favorites. Under is 17-8 in their last 25 road games. Cleveland was -6 in turnovers the last two weeks, both on road; rookie QB’s usually struggle on road. Browns have 17 plays of 20+ yards, which is encouraging, they’re 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year- they lost 21-18 to Steelers in only home game so far.

Steelers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)— Ravens were a complete no-show against the Jaguars over the pond, now come home to face the rival Steelers, who lost in OT in Chicago LW. Baltimore won four of last five series games; Steelers lost last four visits to Charm City, by 2-20-3-7 points. Ravens were +7 in TO’s in their two wins, -3 in Jaguar loss; they’re just 7-22 on 3rd down in last two games. Baltimore is 7-3 vs spread in its last 10 home games; under is 16-9 in their last 25 home tilts. Steelers ran ball for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg); they’re 12-37 on 3rd down- Chicago ran ball for 220 yards against them LW. Under is 19-7 in Pitt’s last 26 road games. Baltimore has only four plays of 20+ yards, 2nd-least in league- only Bucs have fewer and they’ve played one less game.

Bills (2-1) @ Falcons (3-0)—Atlanta hung on at goal line to win at Detroit LW, move to 3-0; they scored 8 TD’s on 28 drives, putting up 34-30 points in two games on carpet, where their speed is a bigger edge than on grass. Falcons are just 4-10 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn, 1-0 this year- their last nine home games went over. Buffalo allowed only 12.3 pts/game in their 2-1 start, giving up 2 TD’s on 31 drives. Opponents averaged 4.4/4.7/5.9 ypa vs Bills this year; how will Ryan’s pass attack do here? Atlanta won last four series games by average score of 31-20; Bills are 1-4 in Atlanta, with only win in their first visit, in 1973. McDermott was Carolina’s defensive coordinator the last 6 years; Panthers were 5-7 vs Atlanta during that time. Falcons hung 48-33 points on his defense LY.

Giants (0-3) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Giants are 0-3, scoring 4 TD’s on 30 drives, 30 points on 8 red zone drives- they did have three TD’s in 4th quarter at Philly LW, we’ll see if that carries over to this week- they’ve run ball 47 times for 145 yards in 3 games. No bueno. Tampa Bay has 4 TD’s on 19 drives, but 3 of the 4 drives were 46 or less yards, set up by defense/special teams. Case Keenum riddled Bucs’ defense for 11.7 ypa LW, not a good sign. Big Blue is 4-4-2 vs spread on road under McAdoo (under 8-2). Bucs are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home favorite; under is 5-3-1 in their home games under Koetter. Giants won last five series games, four by 10+ points; they won last three visits here. Bucs’ last series win was in 2003.

Eagles (2-1) @ Chargers (0-3)— Philly survived giving up 24 4th quarter points LW in 27-24 win over Giants; they allowed 7.3/7.8 ypa to Smith/Manning last two weeks, face another quality QB here in Rivers, who tossed three INT’s in 24-10 home loss to KC LW. Eagles are 2-5 as a road underdog under Pederson- losing RB Sproles LW hurts offense. Chargers are playing n their new home for 3rd week in row; they’re 10-33 on 3rd down, allowed 146.7 rushing ypg, but lost first two games because their rookie kicker missed FG’s in last minute. Bolts are 7-4 in series, 5-1 at home; Eagles’ only series win in San Diego was their first meeting, in 1974. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 Philly road games. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division.

49ers (0-3) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Arizona on short week after Monday night loss to Dallas; 49ers played on Thursday, so edge in rest/prep time. Cardinals won last four series games, winning 47-7/23-20 in last two meetings played here. 49ers lost last two games by total of 5 points, losing 12-9 at Seattle in only road game- they had five TD’s last game, after not having any in first two games. Niners are 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as a road underdog. Over is 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Arizona is 6-10 as home favorite last 2+ years; under is 15-9-1 in their last 25 home games- they’re 5-10 vs spread in last 15 NFC West home tilts. In last two games, Cardinals have scored only 16 points on seven red zone drives.

Raiders (2-1) @ Broncos (2-1)— Broncos are 9-2 in last 11 series games; Raiders lost four of last five visits here, losing by 31-16-33-18 points- they won in Denver two years ago. Oakland was really bad LW in Washington, outgained 472-128; they scored 71 points in first two games. Raiders are 11-7 as a road underdog under Del Rio; they’re 12-7 vs spread coming off a loss- this is their 3rd road game in four weeks. Under is 9-8-1 in their last 18 road games. Broncos scored 66 points in winning first two home game, then lost 26-16 LW in Buffalo; Denver is 23-44 on 3rd down this year. Last 2+ years, Broncos are 4-7-1 as a home favorite; they’re 13-7-1 vs spread in games following their last 21 losses.

Colts (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)—Seattle’s offense is struggling, scoring one TD in first two games before scoring 27 in 6-point loss at Tennessee LW. Scoring 36 points on nine red zone drives isn’t ideal. Spread is lower than you’d think; overreaction to Colts’ win over Cleveland LW? Brissett is making his 4th NFL start; this is his first road start, in hostile environment where Seahawks are 26-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll. Last three years, Seattle is 8-3 vs spread when laying double digits. Colts are 16-35 on 3rd down last two games; their last two games were both decided by a FG. Indy is 7-4 vs Seahawks; this is their first visit to Seattle since 2005. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread out of its division; NFC West teams are 1-7, 1-3 when favored.

Monday's game
Redskins (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0)— Washington outgained Raiders 472-128 last Sunday night; they are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdog, 10-7 in game following its last 17 wins; over is 13-4 in Redskins’ last 17 road games. Chiefs are off to 3-0 start, they’re 14-17 as a home favorite under Reid; they’ve run ball for 162 yards/game so far, unusual for a Reid team. Thee of their last five TD drives were less than 45 yards. KC is +5 in turnovers their last two games. Skins allowed only 60.7 rushing yards/game so far this season. KC won last six series games; their last loss to Redskins was in 1983. Washington is 0-4 in Arrowhead, losing by 7-19-21-7 points. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC East teams are 3-3.

2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N

T) 12-15 13-6 20-25-1 6-3N

[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 4 upon us…….

— Ravens covered nine of last 10 divisional games.

— Houston is 12-6-1 vs spread in last 19 home games.

— Buccaneers covered twice in last 10 games as a home favorite.

— Redskins are 16-6 vs spread in their last 22 games.

— Cardinals are 3-10 vs spread in their last 13 games.

— Jets are 11-5 in last 16 games as a home underdog.

[Udog]

The Muffed Punt: 'Recency Bias' is going to burn you bad when it comes to this NFL Week 4 bet
Joe Fortenbaugh

Let’s try a bit of an experiment, shall we? I’m going to give you one piece of information about the Ravens-Steelers AFC North showdown that takes place this Sunday in Baltimore and based solely on that information, I want you to pick the winner of that game.

Ready?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Baltimore Ravens.

So who do you like to win Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Ravens?

Sure, that’s a bit of a leading question designed to entice you to pick the Ravens based on the lone piece of information we provided. But what I can’t seem to figure out is why Baltimore is catching three points at home despite the fact that Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Ravens.

My best guess is that this pointspread has something to do with “Recency Bias”, which is a term used in the finance world to explain a situation where stock market participants evaluate their portfolio performance based on recent results and make incorrect conclusions that ultimately lead to incorrect decisions about how the stock market behaves.

Applied to this instance, I think bettors are putting too much emphasis on Baltimore’s humiliating 44-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last Sunday.

Instead of focusing on just how bad Joe Flacco & Co. looked against Blake Bortles last weekend, pay attention to the fact that the Ravens are 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread under head coach John Harbaugh when coming off a double-digit loss.

And then go ahead and grab the Ravens plus the field goal.

With three weeks in the books

Home teams ATS: 25-21-1
Favorites ATS: 19-26-1
Home underdogs: 12-7
Over/Under: 23-24-1

Trend of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games played overall.

Think about that for a second. The last time Philip Rivers and the Bolts covered the spread, it came in Week 12 of last season when the Bolts (-2.5) defeated the Texans in Houston by a final score of 21-13. Since that date (11/27/2016), the Chargers have yet to cover a single pointspread.

Does the streak finally come to an end Sunday afternoon at StubHub Center in Carson, California when the Philadelphia Eagles come to town as 1-point underdogs? Take note that Carson Wentz and the Birds are just 2-7 ATS over their last nine road dates.

Sharps like…

*The following information is courtesy Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook Manager Ed Salmons.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (in London): Drew Brees and the Saints are 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games overall, while the Dolphins are 4-10 ATS over their last 14 games an ATS loss.

Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is working on a short week following Monday night’s win in Arizona, but note that the Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Rams quarterback Jared Goff currently ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.09).

New York Jets (+4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Are you prepared to live in a world that features Blake Bortles as a road favorite?

Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders: The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS over their last 13 home dates and 16-7 ATS over their last 23 games when coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just 2-8-1 ATS over their last 11 showdowns with the Broncos.

The public likes…

“All NFL favorites with popular teams, like the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs are going to attract public money,” said Salmons. “The book will absolutely need an underdog to win straight-up with all of the moneyline parlays and teaser action we are going to see.”

Biggest line move…

“The Dallas Cowboys, which we opened at -7.5 and have since moved to -6.5,” Salmons told ***********.

The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS over their last seven showdowns against teams with a winning record.

Biggest sweat…

“We needed the Bears on Thursday night, that’s for sure,” said Salmons. “As for Sunday, we’ll definitely need an underdog of six or more points to pull an upset and win straight up.”

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 4 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Kansas City +6.5, 575

5) Cincinnati, -3, 595

4) New Orleans, -3, 705

3) NJ Giants, +3, 726

2) LA Chargers, -1.5, 774

1) Denver, -2.5, 963

Season record of top 6 picks: 6-12

[Udog]

Essential Week 4 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has struggled in his two career starts at Denver. He's completed less than 50 percent of his pass attempts and owns an ugly 68.3 QB rating at Mile High.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (+3, 49.5)

There were a lot of things not to like about the Dolphins’ performance against the New York Jets but maybe none more than their decisions on third down. Miami converted just one of its 12 third down attempts against Gang Green which pushed the team down to last in the league in third down conversion rate at 24 percent.

There should be a chance to correct the problem this week as the Saints’ defense still ranks among the worst in the league even after the team’s win over the Panthers last week.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Fish getting 2.5 points and there’s where most books still have the line. There are a few shops dealing Miami +3. The total is holding steady at 49.5 although there a few places offering 50.

TRENDS

*The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass
*The Over is 6-0 in the Saints’ last six games.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 47.5)

What a difference a year makes. The Los Angeles Rams finished dead last in points per game at 14.0 a season ago and are first this year at 35.7. They’ve scored 40 or more points twice this season and they had only two games scoring that many points in the previous 10 years.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened with the Cowboys giving as many as 8.5 points but most shops are now dealing Rams +6.5 and there are even a few 6’s on the board.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
*The Over is 5-0 in the Rams’ last five games.
*The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

The Jags are in unfamiliar territory entering New York as the betting favorite. It’s the first time the Jaguars have been away chalk since 2011 and it snaps a 44-game stretch of consecutive contests as away pups. The Browns were in a similar spot last week as the faves at Indianapolis and ended up losing outright.

LINE HISTORY: This spread opened at Jets +3.5 and there’s where it still stands at most sportsbooks, however, there are a few locations separating these teams by a field goal. The total is holding at 39.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five games.
*The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)

The Falcons are the first Super Bowl loser to start the next season 3-0 straight up since the 2006 Seahawks. Seattle went on to go 9-7 SU and 6-9-1 ATS that season. Buffalo is the first of four straight games against AFC East opponents for Atlanta.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed the Falcons as 9-point chalk and the action is titling toward the visiting Bills so far. Buffalo is now as low as a 7.5-point dog. The total looks like it’s going to settle at 48.5 after opening at 49.

TRENDS:

*Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
*Buffalo is 7-3 in its last 10 games following an ATS win.
*The Over is 12-0 in Atlanta’s last 12 home games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3, 41)

There was a least some signs of progress on offense for the Bengals last week against the Packers. Cincy scored its first touchdown of the campaign and quarterback Andy Dalton had his highest QB rating in a road game since 2015.

But new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is still trying to come up with a way to fix the offensive line. The unit allowed three sacks last week, all in third-and-long spots, and has given up 11 QB takedowns this season.

Backup lineman Andre Smith relieved left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi and right tackle Jake Fisher at different points during the Green Bay game. Is that because the Bengals want to keep their tackles fresh or because they don’t really like either of their starters?

LINE HISTORY: A few places opened with the Begnals as 3.5-point road faves but there are only 3s on the board now with varying amounts of juice. The total opened at 40 and has been bet up to 40.5 and 41.

TRENDS:

*The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Browns’ last six home games and 6-1 in the Bengals’ last seven games overall.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 49)

The Patriots’ defense is an issue. It ranks last in yards allowed per game and finished no worse than 13th in this stat over the last three seasons. The Texans had scored only 20 points in two games before putting up 33 against the Pats last weekend.

Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson passed for over 300 yards and ran for another 41 at New England. If mobile QBs are a problem for Bill Belichick’s defense, it might help Cam Newton break out of his season-long funk.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Pats giving 8.5 points but most shops are dealing either Pats -9 or 9.5. The total opened at 47.5 and now rests around 49.

TRENDS:

*New England is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.
*The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Over is 7-0 in the Pats’ last seven games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 41.5)

It’s been three weeks and we’ve yet to see the same Steelers’ offense from the past few seasons. Pittsburgh finished seventh in total offensive yardage last year and third the year prior. After three games this season they sit in the bottom third of the league.

Head coach Mike Tomlin says his team needs more “splash” plays and that probably means he’s talking about his running back. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been his regular self since ending his contract holdout at the end of the preseason. The Steelers longest running play this season was for just 15 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point chalk and have been bet up to -3 faves. The total has been bet down from 45 to as low as 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC North opponents.
*The Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)

The Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the league and have allowed a league-low two sacks in 2017. But Texans’ defensive lineman J.J. Watt has feasted on the Titans over his career. The three-time winner of the defensive player of the year award has racked up 15.5 sacks, seven passes defended, six forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in 10 games against Tennessee.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened with Tennessee favored by 1 or 2 points and the line continues to float between the two numbers. The total opened at 43.5 and some shops are at 44 now.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games.
*The Texans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 AFC South games.
*The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Houston.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

Chargers beat writer Eric D. Williams layed out a sad stat stuffer about the Chargers’ last 40 games. During that 40-game stretch the Bolts are 11-27 straight up (17-22-1 ATS) and have blown 13 fourth quarter leads.

They’ve turned the ball over 74 times in those 40 games with 47 of those coming by way of a Philip Rivers interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened at most shops as 1 to 1.5-point favorites and that’s where we sit midweek. The total has been bet up a full point from the opening number of 46.5 to 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chargers are 0-7-1 in their last eight games overall and 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games.
*The Over is 12-2 in the Eagles’ last 14 road games.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)

The Bucs are in the middle of a three-game stretch against three quarterbacks who have their number. Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times points out Case Keenum, Eli Manning and Tom Brady are a combined 11-0 against the Bucs franchise.

Keenum torched T-Bay last week to the tune of 369 yards and three touchdowns on 25 of 33 passes. Manning is 5-0 against the Bucs and last beat them in 2015 at Tampa Bay 32-18.

LINE HISTORY: The Bucs opened as 4-point chalk but are now down to 3-point faves at most shops. The total opened at 43.5 and shifted half a point to 44.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 9-3 in the Giants’ last 12 games overall.
*The Under is 6-2-1 in the Bucs’ last nine games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)

Arizona’s front office is not happy with the play of its offensive line following last week’s performance against Dallas. Cards GM Steve Keim said the play of the unit was unacceptable and he even signaled out right tackle Jared Veldheer who got owned by Dallas defensive end Demarcus Lawrence.

Arizona had been starting backups on the left side of its line but two linemen suffered pectoral strains Monday against the Cowboys. The hope is regular starters DJ Humphries and Mike Iupati can return for this weekend but head coach Bruce Arians sounds less than optimistic about those chances.

LINE HISTORY: Vegas opened with the Cards as 7-point home faves and that’s where the line stands going into the weekend. The total is holding at 44.5

TRENDS:

*The Niners are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against NFC West opponents.
*The Under is 11-2 in the Cards’ last 13 home games.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 47)

The Raiders’ loss last week at Washington is a game quarterback Derek Carr hopes to soon forget. The normally elite signal caller was picked off twice in the first half and played a major role in Oakland going 0-for-11 on third downs.

Carr has not played well at Mile High Stadium. He missed last year’s game because of injury but in two games he owns a 68.3 QB rating at Denver.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Broncos -2.5 and the line has moved up to Broncos -3. The total can be found between 46.5 and 47.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last six away dates.
*The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five games overall.
*The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between this two teams.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

The issues with Seattle’s offensive line have been going on for years, and, at this point, pretty well documented. Another reason for the Seahawks 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS start: that vaunted defense isn’t so special anymore.

The Seahawks are allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the ground – a big jump from their league-low mark last season at 3.4. And Seattle pass rush was toothless against Tennessee. Marcus Mariota was pressured on just two of his 37 drop backs last weekend.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with Seattle giving 12.5 points but just about everyone is at Colts +13 now. The total opened at 41 but most shops have moved up to 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
*The Over is 24-9 in the Colts last 33 road games.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 1

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Colts at Seahawks
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Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano has the music revved up on the practice field this week, but it has nothing to do with celebrating the team's first victory. The Colts will be heading into one of the league's toughest environments at raucous CenturyLink Field when they pay a visit to the Seattle Seahawks in prime time on Sunday night.

Pagano has no illusions as to what awaits his team, which is coming off a 31-28 victory over Cleveland behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired from New England at the beginning of the month. "We've got a really young football team, and we will bring a bunch of guys that have never been in an environment like this and play an opponent like this," Pagano acknowledged. The Seahawks have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, struggling on both sides of the ball in their 1-2 start. Seattle's offense finally came to life after two pedestrian efforts to open the season but the defense was bulldozed in last week's 33-27 loss at Tennessee.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4.5) - Seahawks (-2) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened the week as 13.5-point home chalk but quickly dropped to 13 Monday morning and remained there all week. The total hit the betting board at 41.5 and was yet to move off the opening number.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Something’s not right with the Seattle Seahawks these days and it is largely attributed to the condition of a shaky offensive line. As a result Pete Carroll’s crew is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the 2017 season. Meanwhile, Indianapolis enters off a win over lowly Cleveland while having been outgained in each of its initial three games. Given Seattle’s 10-2 ATS mark in recent games against AFC South opponents, it would be most surprising should the Seahawks not level their record at 2-2 tonight.” - Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY:“With a big number and the state the Colts are in, there hasn't been a ton of betting interest for Sunday night just yet. That will change as Sunday wears on, but this won't be nearly the handle we usually see for SNF. Saw some early sharp action on the Colts, but then got some on the Seahawks so we're back to the opener. The low total has seen some over bets from the pros too. Currently, 65 percent of the tickets on Seattle side and 55 percent of the money there as well.” Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu

INJURY REPORT:

Colts - TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Foot), G Deyshawn Bond (Probable, Ankle), WR Kamar Aiken (Probable, Concussion), CB Vontae Davis (Probable, Groin), CB Chris Milton (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Questionable, Knee), WR Chester Rogers (Out, Hamstring), RB Marlon Mack (Out, Shoulder), QB Andrew Luck (Mid-November, Shoulder).

Seahawks - CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), G Luke Joeckel (Probable, Knee), DE Frank Clark (Probable, Hamstring), S Earl Thomas (Probable, Knee), Wr Doug Baldwin (Questionable, Groin), DT Nazair Jones (Questionable, Knee), CB Neiko Thorpe (Questionable, Ankle), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Hamstring), RB C.J. Prosise (Out, Ankle), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With Andrew Luck still not able to practice, Brissett was handed the reins after Scott Tolzein flopped in the first half of a 46-9 drubbing to the Rams in the season opener. He became the first quarterback in franchise history to rush for two touchdowns, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards as the Colts put up 28 first-half points last week. T.Y. Hilton, who led the league in receiving yards last week, had seven receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Seattle's defense had long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher, but it has allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray and the Titans. The offensive managed a combined 21 points in the first two weeks but finally showed signs of life at quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 373 yards and fourth touchdowns in a belated comeback attempt last week. One potential issue for this week: top wideout Doug Baldwin suffered a groin strain during Sunday's 10-catch, 105-yard game and didn't practice Wednesday. Rookie Chris Carson leads the ground game but third-down back C.J. Prosise is out for Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in October.

* Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dogs Colts at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.


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