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Major line move for Miami/Florida St. in early NCAAF Week 6 betting
Patrick Everson
"After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season."
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+25)
Alabama looked just fine through the season’s first three weeks, posting three relatively easy victories, though it failed to cover in two of those. The last two weeks, however, the Crimson Tide has been an absolute wrecking ball. In Week 4, the Tide belted host Vanderbilt 59-0 laying 19.5 points, then resumed the destruction Saturday in a 66-3 steamrolling of Mississippi as a massive 30-point home favorite.
Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) has won four in a row since allowing a shocking comeback at UCLA in the season opener. In Week 5, the Aggies held off South Carolina 24-17 to push as a 7-point home chalk. Despite A&M’s upswing of late, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Aggies any shot at home.
“With their 66-3 thrashing of Ole Miss on Saturday, Alabama was one of the public’s biggest winners for the second straight week,” Mason said. “Now that the Crimson Tide have outscored their last two opponents by a combined score of 125-3, it’s obvious as to why more bettors are on ‘Bama than any other team so far. Only 6 percent – yes, 6 – of the bets are on A&M.”
Michigan State Spartans at No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)
Michigan got through September without too much trouble, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, while finishing out the month with a week off. In Week 4, the Wolverines trailed Purdue 10-7 at halftime, but shut out the Boilermakers the rest of the way in a 28-10 victory as a 13.5-point road fave.
Michigan State (3-1 SU and ATS) will be on the road for the first time this year when it travels to the Big House. The Spartans topped Iowa 17-10 in Week 5, cashing as a 3.5-point home favorite.
“Michigan opened 11.5-point chalk before moving up to the current -13.5,” Mason said Sunday evening. “Loyal Michigan State bettors have made a small fortune in this rivalry over the last decade, as the Spartans covered in each of the last nine meetings versus the Wolverines. Despite this lopsided betting trend, 59 percent of the early tickets are on Michigan.”
Later Sunday, the line ticked up another full point to Michigan -14.5.
No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 10 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-11)
Texas Christian had its bye last week, following one of this season’s more impressive victories. The Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to red-hot Oklahoma State as a 9-point underdog in Week 4 and left with a 44-31 outright victory.
West Virginia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) enters this matchup on equal rest, also getting a bye in Week 5. The Mountaineers rolled Kansas 56-34 – their third straight game scoring 56 or more – in Week 4 as a 23.5-point road chalk.
“The last time we saw TCU in action – versus Oklahoma State two weeks ago – the Horned Frogs were one of the biggest college football winners of the season for BetOnline,” Mason said. “TCU quickly moved to 12-point favorites. About 43 percent of early bettors are counting on a West Virginia cover.”
No. 12 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State (-1)
Miami only has three games under its belt so far, thanks to a canceled nonconference game due to Hurricane Irma. The ‘Canes (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) seem to be rounding into form, though, coming off a 31-6 rout of Duke giving 5.5 points on the road Friday night.
Florida State (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) lost starting quarterback Deondre Francois in its Week 1 loss to Alabama, then like Miami had its Week 2 game canceled. The Seminoles finally cracked the win column Saturday, getting a last-minute touchdown in a 26-19 victory over Wake Forest to push as a 7-point favorite.
Mason said the line in this ACC clash jumped the fence in a hurry.
“After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season and a backdoor push,” Mason said. “Even though the ‘Canes haven’t beaten the Seminoles outright since 2009, 85 percent of early bettors are pounding Miami.”
Patrick Everson
"After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season."
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies (+25)
Alabama looked just fine through the season’s first three weeks, posting three relatively easy victories, though it failed to cover in two of those. The last two weeks, however, the Crimson Tide has been an absolute wrecking ball. In Week 4, the Tide belted host Vanderbilt 59-0 laying 19.5 points, then resumed the destruction Saturday in a 66-3 steamrolling of Mississippi as a massive 30-point home favorite.
Texas A&M (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) has won four in a row since allowing a shocking comeback at UCLA in the season opener. In Week 5, the Aggies held off South Carolina 24-17 to push as a 7-point home chalk. Despite A&M’s upswing of late, oddsmakers aren’t giving the Aggies any shot at home.
“With their 66-3 thrashing of Ole Miss on Saturday, Alabama was one of the public’s biggest winners for the second straight week,” Mason said. “Now that the Crimson Tide have outscored their last two opponents by a combined score of 125-3, it’s obvious as to why more bettors are on ‘Bama than any other team so far. Only 6 percent – yes, 6 – of the bets are on A&M.”
Michigan State Spartans at No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)
Michigan got through September without too much trouble, going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS, while finishing out the month with a week off. In Week 4, the Wolverines trailed Purdue 10-7 at halftime, but shut out the Boilermakers the rest of the way in a 28-10 victory as a 13.5-point road fave.
Michigan State (3-1 SU and ATS) will be on the road for the first time this year when it travels to the Big House. The Spartans topped Iowa 17-10 in Week 5, cashing as a 3.5-point home favorite.
“Michigan opened 11.5-point chalk before moving up to the current -13.5,” Mason said Sunday evening. “Loyal Michigan State bettors have made a small fortune in this rivalry over the last decade, as the Spartans covered in each of the last nine meetings versus the Wolverines. Despite this lopsided betting trend, 59 percent of the early tickets are on Michigan.”
Later Sunday, the line ticked up another full point to Michigan -14.5.
No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 10 Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-11)
Texas Christian had its bye last week, following one of this season’s more impressive victories. The Horned Frogs (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) went to red-hot Oklahoma State as a 9-point underdog in Week 4 and left with a 44-31 outright victory.
West Virginia (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) enters this matchup on equal rest, also getting a bye in Week 5. The Mountaineers rolled Kansas 56-34 – their third straight game scoring 56 or more – in Week 4 as a 23.5-point road chalk.
“The last time we saw TCU in action – versus Oklahoma State two weeks ago – the Horned Frogs were one of the biggest college football winners of the season for BetOnline,” Mason said. “TCU quickly moved to 12-point favorites. About 43 percent of early bettors are counting on a West Virginia cover.”
No. 12 Miami Hurricanes at Florida State (-1)
Miami only has three games under its belt so far, thanks to a canceled nonconference game due to Hurricane Irma. The ‘Canes (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) seem to be rounding into form, though, coming off a 31-6 rout of Duke giving 5.5 points on the road Friday night.
Florida State (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) lost starting quarterback Deondre Francois in its Week 1 loss to Alabama, then like Miami had its Week 2 game canceled. The Seminoles finally cracked the win column Saturday, getting a last-minute touchdown in a 26-19 victory over Wake Forest to push as a 7-point favorite.
Mason said the line in this ACC clash jumped the fence in a hurry.
“After opening as a small ‘dog, Miami quickly moved to a 3.5-point road favorite over an FSU squad coming off of its first win of the season and a backdoor push,” Mason said. “Even though the ‘Canes haven’t beaten the Seminoles outright since 2009, 85 percent of early bettors are pounding Miami.”
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