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NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thur., Sept. 21 - Sun., Sept. 24)

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  • #16
    Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……..

    13) TCU 44, Oklahoma State 31— Horned Frogs score a TD with 2:37 left to go up 43-31; they kick the PAT— why?!?!?!? At that point, 44-31 is the same as 43-31, but 45-31 is a lot better.

    Up 44-31 with 2:37 left, Oklahoma State could’ve still scored two TD’s to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, and then would some faces be red. It didn’t happen, but as a coach, you have to guard against all kinds of unlikely events.

    12) Florida 28, Kentucky 27— Talk about a gut punch; Kentucky led this game 27-14 with 8:30 to play, but let it slip away in last minute— they’ve now lost 31 games in a row to Florida. Wildcats cover the spread here, just 2nd time they’ve done it in last 11 series games, but this game will sting a lot longer than most losses do.

    Wildcats ran the ball into field goal range with 0:05 left to play, but a holding call against them nullified the run and pushed them out of field goal range. Kentucky gets favorable calls in basketball, but not in football.

    Kentucky missed a 57-yard field goal on the last play of the game.

    11) Texas A&M 50, Arkansas 43 (OT)— A&M is playing a ton of freshmen; this was a wacky game that was fun to watch, if you didn’t care who won (or covered). Arkansas led 21-7 in the second quarter.

    10) South Carolina 17, Louisiana Tech 16—- WR Edwards made a great catch on a 41-yard bomb that set Gamecocks up for a short FG that won game with 0:05 left.

    Tech coach Skip Holtz once worked for his dad at South Carolina, but was passed over for the head coaching job when the Gamecocks hired Steve Spurrier (wise move) to replace Lou Holtz. This would’ve been sweet revenge for Skip, but it wasn’t to be.

    9) Central Florida 38, Maryland 10— Terps have played three games, are already down to their #3 QB, which is a disaster. This isn’t the NFL, where you can go sign another QB if you need one. Maryland may be installing a Wildcat package soon with a RB or WR-turned-QB.

    8) UL-Monroe 56, UL-Lafayette 50 (OT)— Warhawks blew a 43-22 lead with 8:00 to play in game, but won in OT, beating their in-state rivals for just second time in last 10 meetings. There were 1,119 yards of offense in this game, with no turnovers.

    7) Idaho 29, South Alabama 23 (OT)— These teams are in same league, despite being located 2,578 miles from each other. How did that happen?

    Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad Scott is the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive coordinator.

    6) Upsets of the Week:
    Arizona State (+15) 37, Oregon 35— Week’s biggest upset happened after midnight.
    TCU (+13) 44, Oklahoma State 31— What a difference a week makes for OSU, who led 49-14 at halftime last week.
    Virginia (+12) 42, Boise State 23— Big upset on Friday night.
    NC State (+11) 27, Florida State 21— Seminoles are 0-2 for first time since 1989.
    New Mexico (+10.5) 16, Tulsa 13— Tulsa lost 54-51 last week. No bueno.

    5) Tennessee 17, UMass 13— Vols were a 27.5-point favorite; they won, but this still ain’t going to sit well with the fanbase. UMass had been 0-4 against the spread before covering here.

    4) Marlins 12, Diamondbacks 6— Giancarlo Stanton hit his 57th home run.

    3) San Diego State 28, Air Force 24— Most of first half was played in a monsoon, until game was finally stopped for an hour because of lightning, with Air Force leading 9-0. Rain stopped after the delay and game became more normal.

    Look at the Stanford score down below; Aztecs held Cardinal to 8 first downs last week.

    2) Penn State 21, Iowa 19— McSorley threw a 7-yard TD pass on the last play of the game, as the Nittany Lions avoid an upset in Iowa City.

    Total yardage in game was 571-273 Penn State; those last seven yards were the difference.

    1) Stanford 58, UCLA 34— It is September 24 and UCLA has already allowed 44+ points in three games this season. Gonna be a long season in Westwood; when does hoop practice start?

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    • #17
      NCAAF opening line report: College football opening lines on the move early
      Patrick Everson

      “Not only did the house need the Trojans against Cal this past Saturday, but 69 percent of the early bettors are on Washington State this week, quickly moving the Cougars from +6 to +4.5."

      Conference play is in full swing for Week 5 of the college football season. We check in on the opening lines and early action for a few noteworthy matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.

      No. 5 Southern California Trojans at No. 18 Washington State Cougars (+6)

      Two unbeatens in the Pac-12 kick off the weekend a day early, with a 10:30 p.m. ET Friday night clash. Southern Cal is 4-0 SU, but hasn’t been particularly impressive in getting there, save for its solid win over Stanford in Week 2. In Week 4, the Trojans (1-3 ATS) traveled to California, where they trailed early and were still tied at 13 in the fourth quarter before pulling away for a 30-20 victory as a 16.5-point favorite.

      Washington State (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS) has put up 45 points or more in three of four games. The Cougars rumbled over Nevada 45-7 as a hefty 28.5-point chalk this past Saturday.

      “With a 1-3 record against the spread, the public seems to be fading USC,” Mason said. “Not only did the house need the Trojans against Cal this past Saturday, but 69 percent of the early bettors are on Washington State this week, quickly moving the Cougars from +6 to +4.5. Within the first few hours after the openers hit the board, there were more bets on Washington State than any other team.”

      No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 13 Virginia Tech Hokies (+7)

      The Atlantic Coast Conference will also have a pair of perfect teams in prime time, for an 8 p.m. ET Saturday night contest. Defending national champion Clemson kept right on rolling in Week 4, routing Boston College 34-7 but falling short as a 33.5-point fave, the first pointspread setback of the year for the Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).

      Clemson already has big wins over Auburn and Louisville, in Weeks 2 and 3 respectively.

      VaTech sports the same 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS record, steamrolling three lightweights over the past three weeks after a solid opening neutral-site win over West Virginia. The Hokies dumped Old Dominion 38-0 laying 28.5 points in Week 4.

      “With this top-20 matchup going down under the nationally televised prime-time lights, it’s safe to say this game will get more volume than any other game on the college football betting board,” Mason said. “A few respected bettors took the 7 real quick, moving the Hokies to +6.5. However, it’s looking like we will be Tech fans Saturday night, as 62 percent of early bettors are backing Clemson.”

      No. 19 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 16 Auburn Tigers (-9)

      Mississippi State was the upstart of the first three weeks, which included a stunning home blowout of Louisiana State in Week 3. But the Bulldogs (3-1 SU and ATS) got a reality check Saturday at Georgia, where they were dealt a 31-3 bashing as a 2.5-point pup.

      Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) seemed to get back in gear this past weekend, blasting Missouri 51-14 giving 18.5 points on the road. That win came after a very lackluster 24-10 win over Mercer as a massive 40-point favorite, a game that was perhaps a hangover from the Tigers’ 14-6 loss at Clemson as a 6-point ‘dog in Week 2.

      “A month into the season, Auburn finally covered their first game of the season this past weekend, while Mississippi State failed to cover for the first time,” Mason said. “Early bettors are pretty split in this SEC showdown, with 58 percent of the public on the Tigers.”

      The Bulldogs and Tigers kick off at 6 p.m. ET Saturday.

      No. 7 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (+14.5)

      Much like Mississippi State, Oklahoma State also got a huge dose of reality in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) were averaging 54 points per game, but fell way short of that in a 44-31 upset loss as a 9-point home chalk against Texas Christian.

      Texas Tech is out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, and in Week 4 hit the road for the first time, with great success. The Red Raiders went to Houston as a 7-point underdog and left with a 27-24 outright victory.

      “Both teams have been generous to bettors this season,” Mason said. “Oklahoma State’s lone noncover was against TCU, which was the biggest college football winner of the weekend for BetOnline. After opening as 14.5-point dogs, Texas Tech immediately got bet down to +11.5.”

      It’s another prime-time matchup, at 8 p.m. ET Saturday.
      Last edited by Udog; 09-25-2017, 10:53 AM.

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