NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 ( Thur., Sept. 14 - Mon., Sept. 18)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 14 - Monday, September 18

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: NFC Championship rematch highlights Week 2

We’ve got a pair of “Monday Night Football” games this evening to finish off Week 1, but it’s already time to look ahead to Week 2. We check in on the opening lines for four noteworthy games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City is arguably the biggest surprise team to emerge from Week 1, even though Andy Reid’s squad went 12-4 SU and was in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs traveled to New England for the Thursday nighter, hung tough with the Patriots through three quarters, then scored the last 21 points of the game in a 42-27 victory as a healthy 8-point underdog.

Philadelphia also started on the right foot on the road, dropping Washington 30-17 as a 2-point favorite Sunday. In the second half, the Eagles allowed only a field goal late in the third quarter.

“Bettors didn’t really like K.C. in the season opener, so we’ll see if they continue to pile on Philly like they did in Week 1,” Cooley said. “However, early sharp action has come in on the Chiefs. Both teams greatly exceeded expectations, so this opening number was dead for a reason.”

That early sharp action pushed the Chiefs to -5.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (no line)

Perhaps New England is the biggest surprise team of Week 1, getting pantsed in the fourth quarter on its home field. The Patriots, coming off the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history as they beat Atlanta, fell flat late in a 42-27 loss to Kansas City as an 8-point home favorite.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is among the four teams who have some Monday night work to do in Week 1 at Minnesota, before beginning prep for Week 2. The Saints, for years a perennial NFC contender, haven’t made the playoffs the last three years.

“We’ll wait to post a line for this game until the Saints complete their Monday nighter,” Cooley said. “If everything goes accordingly, the Pats will likely surface as 4- to 5-point road chalk. You know they’ll be chomping at the bit to erase that ugly opener, and the public won’t hesitate to lay an awkward digit.”

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (no line)

Dallas didn’t light it up on offense, but had more than enough thanks to a stout defensive performance in the Sunday night game. The Cowboys gave up only a field goal to the NFC East rival New York Giants en route to a 19-3 home win laying 6 points.

Like New Orleans, Denver gets underway tonight, at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos sent Peyton Manning into the sunset with a Super Bowl victory after the 2015 season, but last year went 9-7 SU and ATS, missing the playoffs.

With Dallas going late Sunday and Denver playing tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on the opening line.

“We’ll likely open the road team as a 1-point favorite,” Cooley said. “There are certainly a lot of questions surrounding Denver, and hopefully some of those will be answered for everyone Monday night.”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, though not in the same venue, as Atlanta moves into its new digs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium under the Sunday night lights. The Falcons opened the season on the road, fending off Chicago 23-17 as a 6.5-point fave.

Green Bay, which lost that NFC title tilt 44-21 catching 6.5 points, got this season off to a solid start with a 17-9 victory over Seattle giving 2.5 points at home.

“A big early showdown in Hotlanta that should yield a huge ‘Sunday Night Football’ handle,” Cooley said. “Our power ratings have these two teams on a pretty even playing field, so we basically accounted for the home-field advantage. We’re expecting Packers money through and through.”

[Udog]

Will lowest scoring NFL Week 1 in years lead to more Unders in Week 2?

The Houston Texans allowed 10 sacks and turned the ball over four times against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The NFL is back with Week 1 in the books and thank goodness it’s behind us. Outside of a few games, Week 1 was a painful watch. Few games were competitive in the fourth quarter and many offenses looked uglier than Jason Whitlock’s fedora collection.

Low scoring is the story of the weekend with the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants and the Indianapolis Colts all failing to put double digits on the scoreboard.

Last season, the St. Louis Rams – a squad with a historically horrendous offense – averaged a league-worst 262 yards per game. Eight teams tallied fewer than 250 yards of total offense in Week 1.

It’s no surprise that the Under was the best betting trend of the first weekend of the NFL season. The Under went 2-10 on Sunday and finished 5-10 for the week. The average points scored per game is 40.4 after the first 15 contests. The average points scored per game in Week 1 last season was about 4.5 points higher at 44.8.

The data tells us oddsmakers were hitting it out of the park with their Over/Under lines in Week 1 from 2013 to 2016. The differential between the average total and the average game score was less than a point in each year and the Over/Under record was never more than a game off an 8-8 mark.

We can also see that scoring in Week 1 is on a three-year decline and there’s a gulf of 8.5 points between the high year of the sample in 2012 when the average points scored per game was 49.4 and this season.

Bettors will be asking themselves if the low scoring will continue into Week 2. Oddsmakers adjusted to the Week 1 results by setting the lowest average game totals in Week 2 since 2011.

Despite Vegas’ re-calibration, sharp bettors still think there are opportunities moving forward betting the Under on the league’s worst offenses.

Ted Sevransky says he has concerns about the offensive production from the six teams held under 10 points in the first week.

“All six teams had significant offensive line concerns coming into the season, and all six of them failed their first test pretty badly,” Sevransky says. “I have already bet Unders on several of their matchups this week [Week 2] and may still bet more.”

Let’s review each of these offensively-challenged sides and where they play in Week 2.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback Andy Dalton turned the ball over five times in what, very well, could have been his worst career outing as a pro player. The Bengals put up a goose egg on the scoreboard marking the first time they’ve been shut out since Week 7 in 2014.

After the game Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said, “I don’t know if I’ve ever been in such a disappointing football game.”

Dating back to last year, the Under is now 8-1 in Cincy’s last nine regular season games. The Bengals have had a middle of the pack offense for the last three years. It’s safe to assume they’ll finish with around the 15th best offense again this season.

The lowest total (38.5) on the board is Thursday night’s game between the Texans and Bengals.

Houston Texans

Houston allowed 10 sacks and turned the ball over four times against Jacksonville on Sunday. Texans coach Bill O’Brien benched his starting quarterback after the first two quarters of the season.

We don’t know yet if the Texans will stick with rookie DeShaun Watson under center or if they’ll go back to Tom Savage on Thursday against Cincinnati.

The offensive line is a major concern and it sure would help if the team could come to terms with their best lineman. Left tackle Duane Brown, a three-time Pro Bowler, is still holding out for a new contract.

Five of the Jags’ 10 sacks on Sunday came when they rushed just four defenders.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback Andrew Luck is ruled out against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 which means bettors are likely to see another week with Scott Tolzien under center for the Colts. Without Luck, there’s a good argument to be made that Indy is the least talented team in the league.

The total for the Cards-Colts game opened at 44.5.

New York Giants

The G-Men are another case of a club that was missing its best player in Week 1. Receiver Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t play because of an ankle sprain, although the Giants lack of scoring punch isn’t a one-game problem.

New York hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 12 of last season and that game was against the Cleveland Browns. The Under is now 8-1 in the Giants’ last nine regular season games.

The line on this game has yet to be released as oddsmakers wait to hear on the availability of Beckham Jr.

Seattle Seahawks

The offensive line continues to be a problem for the Seahawks. Their starting left tackle went on the IR in preseason and there was no real effort made at replacing him besides looking at their own depth chart.

Seattle’s offense used to be run-orientated but last year the club finished 25th in rushing yards per game. There’s still a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball and Green Bay’s defense may prove to be an above average unit as the season progresses.

Seattle hosts its division rival San Fran on Sunday and the total is set at 43.5.

San Francisco 49ers

Speaking of those Niners – they’re coming off a game which they failed to find the end zone once. The Niners abandoned the run game after the Panthers scored on their first possession in the second half to make it 20-0.

A 70-30 pass/run ratio isn’t going to lead to many wins or scores for the 49ers considering Brian Hoyer is their starting quarterback and Pierre Garcon projects to be their best receiver.

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 14

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HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/14/2017, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 17

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TENNESSEE (0 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-77 ATS (+23.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 88-62 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0-0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 46-71 ATS (-32.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0-0) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 57-81 ATS (-32.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 1) at LA RAMS (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 176-224 ATS (-70.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-224 ATS (-70.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-114 ATS (-45.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-176 ATS (-67.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-176 ATS (-56.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (1 - 0) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 232-189 ATS (+24.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 232-189 ATS (+24.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 18

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DETROIT (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/18/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 14

9:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games ,
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home


Sunday, September 17

2:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home

2:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

2:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games

2:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England

2:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CAROLINA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home

5:05 PM
MIAMI vs. LOS ANGELES
Miami is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
NY JETS vs. OAKLAND
NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

5:25 PM
DALLAS vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Dallas

5:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

5:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 11 games when playing Washington
Los Angeles is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington

9:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
Green Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games


Sunday, September 18

9:30 PM
DETROIT vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home


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[Udog]

NFL Week 2 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

If you like the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, you might just want to come back on the weekend and see where the line sits.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 2, including a curious opening number put up by one sportsbook for the Vikings-Steelers game that may end up being a better number than their re-post.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 38.5)

NFL week two kicks off a Thursday night game which pits two teams that clearly under achieved in their respective openers.

Houston visits Cincinnati and questions outweigh answers for each team involved in this contest. The Texans will be entering practice week with the full understanding that QB Deshaun Watson will be starting. Though he didn’t embarrass himself in his debut, it will take more than the limited time he had under center to truly master the position at the professional level.

There’s always a tendency when a back-up player enters the action and performs well to have a letdown of sorts the next time out. That’s because the energy and spontaneity is short lived and the pack catches up to the leader - that will likely be the case with Watson.

In the case of the Bengals, they are counting on QB Andy Dalton‘s return to form after his disastrous opener. A little ying-yang for both quarterbacks.

This line opened a very questionable -3 on the home favorites and was quickly unmasked as a horrible starting point. As of Tuesday, the general consensus was already tipping it to -5. I say, this is still too low and think the line will be at -6 to -6.5 by kickoff.

What appears to be more of a must-win game for the Bengals is translating into heavy wood on Cincinnati early in the week, and most likely all the way through Sunday. If there’s going to be any Houston action, you can bet on it coming very late when underdog backers see the line has stalled.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 43)

Chicago visits Tampa Bay and I agree with the knee-jerk reaction of the early money on Tampa Bay.

This opened at -6.5 and by Tuesday was a universal -7. The advantage for chalk players in this game is that it will take a monumental amount of money to get off the key -7, so there’s no need to rush in on this game early in the week.

A huge advantage for Tampa Bay in having their opener canceled is that the Buccaneers don’t have any tape to give to the Bears to dissect. Tampa Bay torched this team last year in Florida and the circumstances seem right for the results to mirror that game. You always like to be on the side of the team that has the incentive and energy, and with this game being possibly the first major event since the horrific weather in the south, the unity of the team and its fans may peak perfectly for the home town Bucs. Emotion is a big factor for almost anything in life.

At -7, you might think the wise guys take the dog. I say let them. This line won’t get any higher. It’s the typical game that will be teased down to PK for most parlay players. Call this a gut feeling, but this game gets out of hand for Chicago and the white towel is raised early.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 45)

Minnesota is at Pittsburgh in a game that’s been slow to be exposed by bookmakers early in the week.

In a curious sequence of events, Pinnacle sported a -4 on the home favorites and within a minute, took down the game and reposted at -7. My feeling was that the original -4 was good. Those bookmakers who like to copy the line and hang whatever is out there, posted -7’s and have already been hit on the dog and are resting at –6.5.

At this point, I definitely see more money being drawn to the underdog after a solid performance by the Vikings in Week 1. I know the public has a short memory, me being in that group as well, but seeing the Steelers struggle with the Browns and Minnesota’s sharp play, I have to think this line will be closer to the original -4 than -7 by kickoff.

So, with that being said, the value on Minnesota is to grab the line early in the week. If you like the Steelers, you might just want to come back on the weekend and see where the line sits and benefit from the over-reactionaries. My feeling is that this game is way closer than the spread indicates.

Pinnacle will realize that their first opinion was their best in this game. They, like the rest of the sportsbooks, will probably need Pittsburgh by the time this game closes.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 2:

— Houston is 1-8 in last nine games as a non-divisional road dog.

— Indianapolis covered 10 of last 12 tries as a home underdog.

— Cleveland is 6-19 vs spread in last 25 games as an underdog.

— Arizona is 3-9 vs spread in its last 12 games.

— Falcons are 4-13 vs spread in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Detroit is 4-9 in last 13 games as a non-divisional road dog.

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Texans (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)— Watson gets his first NFL start after playing 2nd half LW; he led Houston’s only TD drive. Texan QB’s were sacked 10 times LW and had 94 penalty yards in a cruddy opener. Under O’Brien, Texans are 12-5-1 vs spread off a loss; they’re 7-11-1 as a road underdog. Bengals lost 20-0 at home to Ravens LW, turning ball over five times on 11 drives; they had ball in red zone three times, came up empty. Houston won seven of last nine series games, winning 10-6/12-10 over Bengals last two years. Texans won last three visits here, by 11-1-4 points. Houston lost last two road openers 24-17/27-0; under is 4-0 in their last six AO’s. Last four years, Bengals are 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss.

Titans (0-1) @ Jaguars (1-0)— Hurricane Irma disrupted life in Jacksonville this week. Home side won last six series games; teams have split series last 8 years. Titans lost last three visits here, by 8-6-21 points. Tennessee won its last four road openers SU, all as an underdog, allowing 12 pts/game- under is 16-3 in their last 19 AO’s. Home side won last six series games; Titans lost last three visits here, by 8-6-21 points. Average total in last three series games, 64.7. Jaguars lost last five home openers, losing 4 of 5 games by 11+ points. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 HO’s. Jax is 5-4 as a home underdog the last two years- since 2011, they’re 7-14 vs spread coming off a win. Last three years, Titans are 0-2-1 as a road favorite.

Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (1-0)— Since 2012, Baltimore is 13-18-1 as a home favorite; last there years, they’re 11-11 coming off a win. Ravens forced five turnovers (+4), allowed only 221 yards in 20-0 win at Cincy LW. Browns are 1-15 SU on road, 6-10 as road underdogs last two years; they lost home opener 21-18 to Pitt- they were 3-17 on 3rd down, had punt blocked for TD. Cleveland lost its last five road openers, is 1-10 in its last 11; over is 8-4 in their last 12 AO’s. Ravens are 10-2 in last 12 home openers; three of last four stayed under. Ravens won five of last six series games; Browns lost 8 of last 9 visits here. Baltimore swept series 25-20/28-7 LY. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. First road tilt for rookie QB Kiser, who was sacked 7 times by Steelers LW.

Bills (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0)— Buffalo ran ball for 190 yards in 21-12 win over Jets LW; they were 8-17 on 3rd down, had 8 plays of 20+ yards, TD drives of 77-64-80 yards. Bills are 9-6 vs spread in last 15 road openers, 3-5 SU in last eight. Over is 4-2 in their last six AO’s. Carolina won its opener easily at SF; red flag is their two TD drives were just 42-28 yards- they held 49ers to 217 yards, started three drives in SF territory. Panthers won four of last five home openers, covered five of last six; under is 3-1 in their last four. Buffalo is 5-1 in this seldom-played series, winning both visits here, 30-14/20-9. Carolina’s only series win was in 2005. Last three years, NFC South home teams are 17-25-2 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite.

Patriots (0-1) @ Saints (0-1)— Last three times New England lost in Week 1, they won Super Bowl that year- they went 2-1 in Week 2 those years. Last four years, NE is 10-2 vs spread coming off a loss; they were 6-1 as a road favorite LY, after being 4-12 from 2013-15. Short week for Saints coming off 29-19 loss in Minnesota; NO drove to red zone five time in eight drives Monday, but had only one TD, kicked four goals- they miss WR Snead (suspended) in red zone. Patriots won five of last six road openers; they were underdog in last two. Patriots are 9-4 in series, winning four of five visits to Bourbon Street- they lost last visit here, 38-17 in 2009. Saints are 2-3 in last five home openers; under is 5-2 in last seven.

Cardinals (0-1) @ Colts (0-1)— Indy has severe QB issues until Luck returns; he is out here. They haven’t said if Tolzien/Brissett will start; to me, Brissett is better choice. Colts offense was outscored 16-9 by LA’s defense LW. Colts are 8-2 as home underdog under Pagano. Arizona is 10-5 as a road favorite under Arians; they turned ball over four times (-3) in Detroit LW, ran ball for only 45 yards, scored only 16 points in 4 red zone drives. Arians returns to Indy, where he was interim coach for Colts when Pagano was ill a few years back. Indy won four of last five series games, losing last matchup 40-11 in desert in ’13. Redbirds lost last three visits here; their last win in Indy was in 1984. Colts are 0-3 in last three home openers; over is 7-5 in their last 12— they lost last four Week 2 games.

Eagles (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)— Andy Reid hosts his old team here. Last 15 years, NFL teams coming off the Week 1 Thursday game are 17-13 vs spread in Week 2; Chiefs rang up 537 yards on Patriots in Foxboro; five of their six TD drives were 75+ yards. KC is 6-10 as a home favorite the last two years; they lost S Berry for year (achilles) in Foxboro. Eagles are 11-10 as road dogs the last four years; they’re 10-2 vs spread vs AFC teams, 14-20 coming off a win. Wentz is 2-7 as a road starter; their road drives last week were 56-39 yards. Philly is 4-3 in series where road team won five of seven games- they’re 3-1 in four visits to Arrowhead. Chiefs are 3-6 in last nine HO’s (over 4-2 in last six)- last six years, they’re 1-5 in Week 2.

Vikings (1-0) @ Steelers (1-0)— Short week off a win for Viking squad that gained 470 yards with no turnovers in 29-19 home win Monday nite; they had 10 plays of 20+ yards. Under Zimmer, they’re 15-6 vs spread coming off a win, 11-6 as road dogs. Last five years, Steelers are 19-12 as home faves, 28-17-1 coming off a win- they had 7 sacks LW. Pitt won three of last four series games; Vikings won last meeting 34-27 in London 4 years ago. Vikes lost last two visits here, 21-16/27-17. Minnesota is 4-9 in last 13 road openers; under is 5-2 in last seven. Steelers are 13-1 in last 14 home openers, 9-3 vs spread in last 12— under is 6-2 in their last eight. Big Ben was 11-11/182 targeting Brown LW; he was 12-25/73 with all his other passes. Vikings will try and take Brown away.

Bears (0-1) @ Buccaneers (0-0)— Hurricane Irma disrupted things in Bay Area, but game will go on as scheduled. Bucs didn’t play LW; they’re 2-8 vs spread as a home favorite last three years, 1-2 under Koetter. Chicago is 7-7-1 as a road underdog under Fox; they’re 9-11-1 coming off a loss. Bears had chance to win opener- they had ball on 10-yard line down 23-17 in last 30 seconds. Tampa Bay (+2.5) waxed the Bears 36-10 here LY, ending 3-game skid vs Chicago. Teams split last six series games played here. Chicago is 2-4 in last six road openers; under is 11-2 in their last 13. Tampa Bay is 3-8 in last 11 openers; they lost last four home openers, and were favored in last three. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 HO’s.

Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-1)— Dolphins practiced in Oxnard all week after re-gathering after their makeshift bye week; Fish are 3-1 in last four season openers. Miami is 15-17 SU on road last four years, 7-10 as road underdog since ’14. Short week for Chargers after their late rally in Denver fell just short Monday nite. LA ran ball for just 64 yards; 2 of their 3 TD drives started in Denver territory. Home opener for Bolts in their new, smaller temporary home venue. Miami won three of last four series games; they lost three of last four visits to San Diego. Home side won six of last seven series games. Miami is 3-9 in last 12 road openers; under is 13-2 in their last 15. Bolts are 6-1 in last seven HO’s, covering last five, but this is a new home for them.

Jets (0-1) @ Raiders (1-0)— Jets are 2-5-2 as road underdogs under Bowles; they ran ball for only 38 yards, were outgained 408-214 LW in 21-12 loss at Buffalo. Last 2+ years, Gang Green is 12-16 vs spread coming off a loss. Raiders gained 359 yards, didn’t turn ball over in 26-16 win at Tennessee LW. Oakland is 4-5 as home favorite under Del Rio- this is first time since ‘03 they’ve been a double digit favorite. Home side won last four series games; Jets lost last three visits to Oakland, by 3-10-14 points. Jets’ last win in Oakland was in ’03. Raiders won last two home openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten. Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 HO’s. Since 2010, Jets are 3-1-1 against the spread as a double digit underdog.

Redskins (0-1) @ Rams (1-0)— Sean McVay worked for Washington the last six years, so lot of familiarity here. Redskins allowed 298 PY to Eagles LW, were outgained 356-264 as Philly was 8-14 on 3rd down. Skins are 11-11 as road underdogs under Gruden, 9-4 coming off a loss the last two years. Rams threw for 310 yards LW, held Colts to 0-10 on 3rd down, but that was vs backup QB’s. Since 2013, LA is 7-6 as a home favorite; they’re 10-14 vs spread coming off a win. Teams split last six meetings; 5 of last 7 series totals were 36 or less. Washington is 2-7 in last nine road openers; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Rams had a 13-yard edge in field position last week- their TD drives were 69-58-57 yards.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Broncos (1-0)— Dallas held Giants to 233 yards, 3 points in opening win LW; Cowboys are 7-3 as road favorite the last three years- they’re 16-7-1 in last 24 games vs AFC foes. Dallas had only one TD, kicked four FG’s last week, a red flag. Short week for Broncos after they held on for 24-21 win after almost blowing 24-7 lead; Denver is 3-1 as a home underdog the last four years- they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games vs NFC teams. Denver won last five series games, winning last one 51-48 in 2013, but that was with now-retired Manning at QB. Cowboys lost four of last five visits here, with last Mile High win in 1992. Dallas covered its last six road openers (4-2 SU); four of last five stayed under total.

49ers (0-1) @ Seahawks (0-1)— Under Carroll, Seattle is 25-14-1 vs spread coming off a loss, 26-15 as a home favorite- last three years, they’re 8-3 as a double digit favorite. Seahawks’ D held Rodgers to 17 points LW; one of the two TD’s was a 6-yard drive. 49ers gained only 217 yards, had 73 penalty yards in 23-3 home loss to Carolina; Niners are 5-10 as road underdogs the last two years. Seattle won its last eight home openers (7-1 vs spread); under is 13-2-1 in their last 16. Seahawks won last seven series games; 49ers lost last last six visits here, with four of six losses by 16+ points. Seattle is 10-1-1 vs spread in last 12 series games. 49ers lost three of last four road openers; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14. 49ers are 1-5 as a double digit underdog the last two years.

Packers (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0)— New dome opens in Atlanta. Falcons beat Green Bay twice LY, 33-32, 44-21, both in GeorgiaDome— home side won last four series games. Falcons threw for 392 yards in the 44-21 playoff win. Green Bay held Seattle to 225 yards LW; the last four years they’re 3-8 as a road underdog. Last three years, Pack is 17-12-1 vs spread coming off a win. Atlanta held on at end to win its opener in Chicago; they’re 6-16 as home favorites the last four years, 3-10 under Quinn. Average total in last three series games is 70. Packers won last two road openers (31-23/27-23); over is 9-2 in their last 11. Falcons won/covered 8 of last 9 home openers, but this is a new home for them.

Lions (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)— How much of Giants’ anemic offense LW was Dallas’ defense; how much was absence of Beckham? Big Blue was 3-1-1 coming off a loss LY- they’re 12-10 in last 22 games as a home favorite. Giants are 2-9-1 vs spread the week after playing Dallas. Detroit is 7-11 as a road dog under Caldwell; 11-13-2, coming off a win. Giants won four of last five series games; Detroit lost its last two visits here, 28-20/17-6- their last series win here was in 2004. Detroit is 4-2 vs spread in last six Monday night games. Giants covered five of last six Monday nite home games. Detroit is 2-7 in last nine road openers; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12. Giants are 1-4 in last five home openers, scoring 18 pts/game (under 4-1). Giants didn’t force any 3/outs LW; they lost field position by 13 yards.

2017 week-by-week results
Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 8-6-1 7-7-1 4-11

T) 8-6-1 7-7-1 4-11

[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 2:

— Tampa Bay is 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as a home favorite.

— Oakland covered seven of last ten games when favored.

— 49ers are 5-10 vs spread in last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Minnesota Vikings are 13-6 in last 19 games as a road dog.

— Jets are 1-5-1 vs spread in last seven games as a road underdog.

— Green Bay covered just three of last 12 gamed when getting points on the road.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

Thursday, September 14

Houston @ Cincinnati

Game 101-102
September 14, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
124.616
Cincinnati
133.823
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 9
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-6); Over


Sunday, September 17

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Game 261-262
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
134.551
Jacksonville
131.128
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 3 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-1 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Baltimore

Game 263-264
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.819
Baltimore
137.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 12 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 8
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-8); Under

Buffalo @ Carolina

Game 265-266
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
127.877
Carolina
136.912
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 9
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-7); Under

New England @ New Orleans

Game 267-268
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
137.668
New Orleans
138.965
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
56
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+7); Over

Arizona @ Indianapolis

Game 269-270
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
130.992
Indianapolis
131.949
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+7 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ Kansas City

Game 271-272
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
136.822
Kansas City
146.062
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-5); Under

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh

Game 273-274
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
131.299
Pittsburgh
138.644
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-5); Under

Chicago @ Tampa Bay

Game 275-276
September 17, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
129.982
Tampa Bay
131.146
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7); Over

Miami @ LA Chargers

Game 277-278
September 17, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
128.850
LA Chargers
130.330
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 1 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 5
45
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+5); Over

NY Jets @ Oakland

Game 279-280
September 17, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
121.976
Oakland
134.062
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 12
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 14
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+14); Over

Washington @ LA Rams

Game 281-282
September 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
129.706
LA Rams
123.494
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 6
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+3); Over

Dallas @ Denver

Game 283-284
September 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
141.062
Denver
131.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 9 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under

San Francisco @ Seattle

Game 285-286
September 17, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
119.481
Seattle
135.373
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 16
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 13 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-13 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Game 287-288
September 17, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
141.513
Atlanta
140.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 3
54
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Under


Monday, September 18

Detroit @ NY Giants

Game 289-290
September 18, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.363
NY Giants
132.362
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 1
32
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 14

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Texans at Bengals
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Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38)

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were among a glut of teams who put forth feeble offensive performances in their respective season openers. Coming off lopsided losses - each at home - to division opponents, the Bengals and Texans have a short week to solve their offensive woes when they square off in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

Awful quarterback performances low-lighted the Week 1 efforts for each team and there could be a change under center for Houston, which benched starter Tom Savage at halftime in favor of rookie first-round pick Deshaun Watson. "We’re going to do what’s best for the team," said Texans coach Bill O'Brien of the potential quarterback controversy after dealing with the failed Brock Osweiler fiasco last year. "We always try to do what’s best for the team, and try to go from there.” Cincinnati was shut out (20-0 by Baltimore) at home for the first time since 2001 as quarterback Andy Dalton matched a career worst with four interceptions and committed five turnovers. “I have to put this one behind us,” acknowledged Dalton. “I know the type of player that I am and I can be. I can’t let this affect the next one.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened as three-point home favorites but by Thursday morning that number was all of the way up to -6.5. The total hit the betting boards at 38 and remains on that opening number.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+0.5) - Bengals (0) + home field (-3) = Bengals -2.5

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - DE J. Watt (Probable, Finger), QB D. Watson (Probable, Ankle), DE J. Clowney (Probable, Foot), S A. Hal (Probable, Hip), C N. Martin (Probable, Ankle), RB A. Blue (Questionable, Ankle), CB K. Johnson (Question, Knee), LB B. McKinney (Questionable, Knee), G J. Allen (Doubful, Ankle), TE R. Griffin (Out, Concussion), LB B. Cushing (Out, Concussion), WR B. Ellington (Out, Concussion), TE S. Anderson (Out, Concussion), WR W. Fuller (Out, Collarbone), T D. Brown (Out, Holdout), TE C. Fiedorowicz (Out, Concussion), T D. Newton (I-R, Knee), WR D. Gray (I-R, Knee).

Bengals - WR J. Ross (Probable, Knee), TE C. Uzomah (Probable, Leg), S S. Williams (Probable, Elbow), CB D. Kirkpatrick (Probable, Foot), CB J. Shaw (Probable, Ankle), DE M. Johnson (Doubtful, Concussion), G T. Hopkins (Out, Knee), LB V. Burfict (Out, Suspension), QB J. Driskel (Out, Thumb), HB T. Carson (I-R, Ankle), TE M. Schreck (I-R, Knee), HB C. Peerman (I-R, Shoulder), WR J. Kumerow (I-R, Leg).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Reports out of Houston indicate that Watson, who guided Clemson to the national championship in January, will be under center for Thursday's matchup if he is not hindered by an ankle injury during Tuesday's practice. Watson was 12 of 23 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he and Savage absorbed a combined 10 sacks behind a line that is still missing left tackle Duane Brown (contract holdout) and will be without guard Jeff Allen. Perhaps an even bigger issue facing the Texans is a lengthy injury list that features five players in the NFL's concussion protocol, including the team's top three tight ends. Despite the return of start defensive end J.J. Watt, limited to three games last season due to back surgery, Houston allowed 155 yards rushing in the 29-7 loss to Jacksonville.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton, who tossed three of his interceptions in the first half, was the sturdy play of Cincinnati's defense, which surrendered a total of 268 yards (157 rushing) to the Ravens. Dalton, who is already halfway to last season's interception total of eight, compiled a wretched 28.4 passer rating after completing 16 of 31 for 170 yards, with star wideout A.J. Green leading the way with five catches for 74 yards. The Bengals need to sort out their running game -- Giovani Bernard, less than 10 months removed from knee surgery, rushed for 40 yards on seven carries but highly touted rookie Joe Mixon managed only nine yards on eight rushes. Rookie wideout John Ross, the ninth overall pick who was clocked in 4.22 in the 40 at the NFL combine, is expected to make his NFL debut.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-1 in Texans last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 9-2 in Bengals last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Texans at a rate of 56 percent and the Under is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.


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[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, September 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Texans at Bengals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 38)

The Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals were among a glut of teams who put forth feeble offensive performances in their respective season openers. Coming off lopsided losses - each at home - to division opponents, the Bengals and Texans have a short week to solve their offensive woes when they square off in Cincinnati on Thursday night.

Awful quarterback performances low-lighted the Week 1 efforts for each team and there could be a change under center for Houston, which benched starter Tom Savage at halftime in favor of rookie first-round pick Deshaun Watson. "We’re going to do what’s best for the team," said Texans coach Bill O'Brien of the potential quarterback controversy after dealing with the failed Brock Osweiler fiasco last year. "We always try to do what’s best for the team, and try to go from there.” Cincinnati was shut out (20-0 by Baltimore) at home for the first time since 2001 as quarterback Andy Dalton matched a career worst with four interceptions and committed five turnovers. “I have to put this one behind us,” acknowledged Dalton. “I know the type of player that I am and I can be. I can’t let this affect the next one.”

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened as three-point home favorites but by Thursday morning that number was all of the way up to -6.5. The total hit the betting boards at 38 and remains on that opening number.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (+0.5) - Bengals (0) + home field (-3) = Bengals -2.5

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - DE J. Watt (Probable, Finger), QB D. Watson (Probable, Ankle), DE J. Clowney (Probable, Foot), S A. Hal (Probable, Hip), C N. Martin (Probable, Ankle), RB A. Blue (Questionable, Ankle), CB K. Johnson (Question, Knee), LB B. McKinney (Questionable, Knee), G J. Allen (Doubful, Ankle), TE R. Griffin (Out, Concussion), LB B. Cushing (Out, Concussion), WR B. Ellington (Out, Concussion), TE S. Anderson (Out, Concussion), WR W. Fuller (Out, Collarbone), T D. Brown (Out, Holdout), TE C. Fiedorowicz (Out, Concussion), T D. Newton (I-R, Knee), WR D. Gray (I-R, Knee).

Bengals - WR J. Ross (Probable, Knee), TE C. Uzomah (Probable, Leg), S S. Williams (Probable, Elbow), CB D. Kirkpatrick (Probable, Foot), CB J. Shaw (Probable, Ankle), DE M. Johnson (Doubtful, Concussion), G T. Hopkins (Out, Knee), LB V. Burfict (Out, Suspension), QB J. Driskel (Out, Thumb), HB T. Carson (I-R, Ankle), TE M. Schreck (I-R, Knee), HB C. Peerman (I-R, Shoulder), WR J. Kumerow (I-R, Leg).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Reports out of Houston indicate that Watson, who guided Clemson to the national championship in January, will be under center for Thursday's matchup if he is not hindered by an ankle injury during Tuesday's practice. Watson was 12 of 23 for 102 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he and Savage absorbed a combined 10 sacks behind a line that is still missing left tackle Duane Brown (contract holdout) and will be without guard Jeff Allen. Perhaps an even bigger issue facing the Texans is a lengthy injury list that features five players in the NFL's concussion protocol, including the team's top three tight ends. Despite the return of start defensive end J.J. Watt, limited to three games last season due to back surgery, Houston allowed 155 yards rushing in the 29-7 loss to Jacksonville.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U): Lost in the abysmal performance by Dalton, who tossed three of his interceptions in the first half, was the sturdy play of Cincinnati's defense, which surrendered a total of 268 yards (157 rushing) to the Ravens. Dalton, who is already halfway to last season's interception total of eight, compiled a wretched 28.4 passer rating after completing 16 of 31 for 170 yards, with star wideout A.J. Green leading the way with five catches for 74 yards. The Bengals need to sort out their running game -- Giovani Bernard, less than 10 months removed from knee surgery, rushed for 40 yards on seven carries but highly touted rookie Joe Mixon managed only nine yards on eight rushes. Rookie wideout John Ross, the ninth overall pick who was clocked in 4.22 in the 40 at the NFL combine, is expected to make his NFL debut.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
* Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-1 in Texans last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 9-2 in Bengals last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Texans at a rate of 56 percent and the Under is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Texans at Bengals
September 14, 2017

Houston at Cincinnati (-6.5, 37.5), 8:30 pm ET, NFLN

One of these teams will leave the field 0-2, having dropped a second straight contest against a conference foe. Considering each entered the season with realistic playoff aspirations, the loser will be digging themselves a major hole since both teams are on the road next week as heavy underdogs against Super Bowl contenders.

The Bengals are still looking for their first points of the season after a wasteful effort against the Ravens. Andy Dalton drove the offense into the red zone on multiple occasions only to turn the ball over, throwing an awful interception in the end zone while also fumbling after being sacked once he missed an open receiver who probably would've scored. It was a forgettable effort for Dalton (16-for-31, 170 yards, 4 INTs), but he at least got to finish the game.

Texans starter Tom Savage lasted one half after the Jaguars built a 19-0 lead through the first two quarters in Houston on Sunday. He lasted just 31 plays, completing 7 of 13 passes for 62 yards before being benched in favor of rookie Desean Watson.

Savage's agent, Neil Schwartz, told NBC Sports he didn't understand the move and pointed out that 12 of his client's 13 passes hit receivers in the hands. Because Jaelen Strong was suspended and Will Fuller is out with a broken collarbone, the Texans have continuity issues at receiver behind No. 1 targer DeAndre Hopkins, though they'll get Strong back from suspension and are expected to have Braxton Miller closer to 100 percent after an ankle sprain.

Watson will get his first NFL start on his 22nd birthday, getting his feet wet in the second half of the loss to Jacksonville by throwing a TD pass to Hopkins and also tossing his first pro interception. He's the ninth starting quarterback of head coach Bill O'Brien's tenure, the most any team has employed in that span (since 2014). His mobility figures to give the Texans a fighting chance given their aforementioned issues at receiver and an offensive line that got abused by the Jaguars' front seven and remains without top tackle Duane Brown, who is holding out for a pay raise he certainly deserves given the state of affairs up front.

Although Dalton's five turnovers were the major culprit in Cincinnati's Week 1 woes, his offensive line did him no favors either. The Bengals are also utilizing a running back by committee approach that didn't allow anyone to get comfortable. Jeremy Hill started, rookie Joe Mixon got the most carries and the versatile Giovani Bernard also got time, so we'll see how Lewis juggles his backs in this one. Dalton is just 1-5 against the Texans in his career and probably isn't excited at the prospect of having to bounce back from one of his worst games ever by facing a J.J. Watt-led defense.

The Texans lost the first three meetings between these franchises but have won seven of eight over the past decade, including three in Cincinnati. Two of those victories came in the wild card round of the playoffs, though both of those wins came under O'Brien's predecessor, Gary Kubiak. O'Brien himself is 2-1 with Houston against Marvin Lewis' Bengals and has one more playoff win than his counterpart, who is in his 15th season at the helm but has come up empty in seven postseason games.

The Texans have covered only one of their last six games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. They're 7-2 ATS against Cincinnati, which has covered four of its last six after a brutal run to start last season. The UNDER has prevailed in five consecutive Bengals games and is 6-3 in Houston's last nine.

Houston Texans
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win AFC South: 9/4 to 7/2
Odds to win AFC: 30/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 60/1 to 100/1

Cincinnati Bengals
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Odds to win AFC North: 7/2 to 7/1
Odds to win AFC: 25/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1 to 100/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Titans (6/5) and Jaguars (2/1) have climbed over the Texans and Colts as the favorites in the AFC South following Week 1, while Cincinnati's lopsided loss to Baltimore currently has them ahead of only Cleveland (60/1) in the latest WestgateLV odds update for the AFC North. Pittsburgh (4/9) is now a heavier favorite than it was to open the season.

Both teams are now availabale at 50-to-1 to win the AFC and have had 100-to-1 odds placed on them if you like either to shock the world and win the Super Bowl. Since they put up two of the ugliest performaces in Week 1. it's no surprise that oddsmakers quickly turned on them.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Bengals opened the week as a 3.5-point favorite and have seen the number top out at 6.5 as of Thursday morning. The total opened at 38.5 and hasn't moved much, although it's most widely available at 37.5 and could close as the lowest total on the young season, surpassing the Texans-Jaguars (38) number from Week 1.

Cincinnati opened as a -180 money line favorite but is now near 3-to-1 (-300) as kickoff approaches.

INJURY CONCERNS

Houston announced that all three of its tight ends are in concussion protocol, with starter C.J. Fiedorowicz landing on IR after his second in less than a month's time. Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson won't play either, joining RB Alfred Blue and receivers Fuller and Bruce Ellington on the sidelines. Guard Jeff Allen is out for the Texans too, so with Brown still holding out, Watson will have to think on his feet in his first career road game.

Linebacker Brian Cushing is concussed too but is beginning a 10-game suspension for using PEDs. It's his second career suspension for performance enhancers and leaves Houston without one of its best tacklers.

Cincinnati is without its best linebacker, Vontaze Burfict, who is serving the second of a three-game suspension after an illegal hit in the preseason. Adam Jones will return from his suspension for getting into trouble off the field, while safety Shawn Williams is expected to debut after missing the opener due to an elbow injury. With CB Dre Kirkpatrick also set to play through a foot issue, the Bengals will have their secondary intact but will be without defensive end Michael Johnson due to a concussion.

Top draft pick John Ross, Cincinnati's fastest player, could debut after missing Week 1 with a knee issue, while tight end C.J. Uzomah (knee) is also likely to play. Guard Trey Hopkins is out.

RECENT MEETINGS (Houston 4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

12/24/16 Houston 20-12 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -3, 41)
11/16/15 Houston 10-6 at Cincinnati (CIN -10, 47)
11/23/14 Cincinnati 22-13 at Houston (HOU -2, 44)
1/5/13 Houston 19-13 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -4, 43)
1/7/12 Houston 31-10 vs. Cincinnati (HOU -3, 38)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride that the first score here is a field goal for even money.

Team to score first: (Texans +125, Bengals -145)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +100)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +110, Under -130)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +1000, No -1500)

TEXANS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Houston was last in this spot back in January, falling 34-16 as a 16.5-point underdog at New England in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. They were 2-6 SU/ATS as an away 'dog in 2016, falling 27-0 against the Patriots in last year's road opener.

BENGALS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Cincinnati hasn't been favored at home since Dec. 4, 2016, defeating Philadelphia 32-14. The Bengals were 3-2-1 straight up (3-3 ATS) in this role last season, and were only favored by more points than they are tonight twice, beating both the Dolphins and Browns by a combined score of 53-24, covering both times.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 3 has the Texans as a 12-point underdog at the Patriots. The Bengals are a 9-point underdog at Green Bay.

[StarDust Bum]

Bengals rookie WR Ross expected to play vs. Texans
September 14, 2017

Cincinnati Bengals rookie wide receiver John Ross is expected to make his NFL debut against the Houston Texans on Thursday, multiple outlets reported.

Ross, 21, missed the Bengals' season-opening 20-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday after spraining his knee in the preseason finale on Aug. 31.

The ninth overall pick of the draft, Ross was a full participant in Cincinnati's light practices this week.

Ross showed his speed during the NFL combine, registering a record for the fastest 40-yard dash time. His 4.22-second time topped the previous best of 4.24, set by now-Arizona Cardinals running back Chris Johnson.

In 2016 at the University of Washington, Ross had 81 catches for 1,150 yards and 17 touchdowns.

[BettorsChat]

Jaguars (+1 1/2) over Titans

Blake Bortles has a history of success against the Titans. AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith

The Jaguars looked awfully sharp in their road victory against the Texans last weekend, and they have looked very good against the Titans in recent seasons, too, at least against the number. Jacksonville has posted a 5-1-2 against the spread mark over the past eight meetings with Tennessee, including a 5-0-1 against the spread mark in the past six in this series at home. The home team is also 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The visiting team has dropped six in a row straight-up in this series, too.

Overall, the Titans haven’t been very good on the road, either, posting a 7-19-1 ATS mark over their past 27, while going 13-35-3 ATS in their last 51 games within the division. Even worse, Tennessee is a dismal 1-16-1 ATS in their past 18 divisional road games. Last week, the Titans were down LeShaun Sims in their secondary, but he is expected to play Sunday. However, rookie Adoree’ Jackson, who struggled mightily in the preseason, is still expected to have a big role. That’s good news for Blake Bortles and the pass offense. He has three straight 300-yard games against the Titans.

Browns (+8) over Ravens
The Browns hit the road for Baltimore in Week 2 looking to build upon their decent showing in the opener against the Steelers. Cleveland picked up a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the fourth quarter for a backdoor cover, falling 21-18 in Week 1. Baltimore also covered, topping the Bengals on the road by a 20-0 count. As such, they moved to 9-1 ATS over their past 10 games against AFC North foes.

However, Ravens QB Joe Flacco looks rather limited in what he can do, and the team lost the versatile Danny Woodhead to a hamstring injury in Week 1. Baltimore is likely to grind out a victory in Week 2, but it certainly will not be a blowout. While Cleveland is 1-10-1 ATS over their past 12 divisional battles, they’re a respectable 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Charm City. The road team is also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall in this series.

Broncos (+2 1/2) over Cowboys
The Broncos are short ‘dogs on their own turf against the Cowboys, but the offense should be able to move the ball well. Orlando Scandrick has been ruled out for Sunday’s game after surgery to repair a broken left hand. That means Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders should find some wide open spaces to roam, and they do not have to worry about Anthony Hitchens applying pressure, either, as he is out for a second straight weekend.

The Broncos pushed last week after a fourth-quarter collapse against the Chargers. However, they have been money at home in recent seasons, going 7-3-2 ATS over their past 12 home games, while also posting a 13-6-1 ATS mark over their last 20 following a non-cover the previous week. The Cowboys are coming off a 19-3 victory at home over the Giants on Sunday Night Football, but they also caught a break with Odell Beckham Jr. sidelined due to injury. The pass offense struggled at times and was bailed out by the running of Ezekiel Elliott. He isn’t likely to find as much real estate against Denver’s sturdy run defense which allowed just 2.9 yards per carry in Week 1.