CFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Fri., September 8 - Sat., September 9)

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Friday, September 8 - Saturday, September 9

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 12

The extended Labor Day schedule in the CFL got underway last Thursday with Ottawa cruising past Montreal 32-4 on the road in a game that closed as a PICK. Sunday’s lone matchup between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan ended with the Roughriders rolling to a 38-24 victory against the Blue Bombers as two-point favorites.

Monday’s Labor Day doubleheader started with Calgary covering a 10-point spread at home with a 39-18 victory against Edmonton. Hamilton closed out Week 11 with its first straight-up victory of the season by getting past Toronto 24-22 as a three-point home underdog.

Friday, Sept. 8

Montreal Alouettes (3-7 SU, 4-6 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -7 ½
Total: 49 ½

Game Overview

Montreal has just one SU victory in its last six games and it has failed to cover in its last three. This once stout defense that held Edmonton to 19 points and Calgary to 23 points early in the year, has now allowed at least 32 points in each of its last three games. Drew Willy replaced Darian Durant in last week’s loss and he completed eight of his 11 passing attempts for 98 yards. It remains to be seen which quarterback will get the call against BC.

The Lions return to action following last week’s bye in desperate need of a win after dropping their last three games SU with a 0-2-1 slide ATS. BC beat Montreal on the road 23-16 in early July to cover as three-point favorites with Jonathon Jennings at quarterback, but this offense has looked its best with Travis Lulay under center. The veteran signal caller has thrown for 1,693 yards and 10 touchdowns in his time on the field running the Lions’ offense.

Betting Trends

-- BC has won the last four meetings both SU and ATS including three games on the road. The total stayed UNDER 50 points in the first meeting this season and it has stayed UNDER in six of the last nine games in this inter-division matchup.

Saturday, Sept. 9

Saskatchewan Roughriders (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Winnipeg -2
Total: 60

Game Overview

The Roughriders are making a move in the West Division standings with three wins in a row (SU and ATS) and they can make up some more ground on Winnipeg in the backend of this home-and-home series. Kevin Glen put the ball up 36 times in Sunday’s win and he completed 26 passes for 386 yards and three touchdowns in one of his best performances of the year.

Winnipeg’s recent five-game SU winning streak came to an end in Sunday’s loss and it is now 4-2 ATS during this same span. The total went OVER the closing 58-point line in that loss and it has gone OVER in eight of the Blue Bombers’ first 10 games this year behind an offense that is averaging 33.2 points per game. Matt Nichols threw for 364 yards and two scores against Saskatchewan, but he was also picked off twice.

Betting Trends

-- Winnipeg still holds a 4-1 SU edge in the last five games of the West Division clash, but Saskatchewan has covered in three of the last four meetings. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (4-6-1 SU, 7-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa -12
Total: 54

Game Overview

Hamilton lost to Ottawa 37-18 in Week 9 as a 3 ½-point home underdog with the total ending as a PUSH on that 55-point line. In Monday’s game against Toronto, the Tiger-Cats needed a last-minute 37 field goal to capture their first SU victory of the year. Jeremiah Masoli got the start at quarterback in place of Zach Collaros and he completed 19-of-33 attempts for 219 yards and a score. June Jones made his debut as Hamilton’s new head coach.

The RedBlacks are back on top in the East Division standings with last Thursday’s win against Montreal and they have now posted victories in their last three games both SU and ATS. The offense has averaged 33.3 PPG during this current run to complement a defense that has allowed an average of just 15.3 PPG. Trevor Harris added another 343 passing yards to his CFL-high 3,531 passing yards on the year.

Betting Trends

-- The road team has won the last three meetings SU, but Ottawa has a 5-1 edge ATS in the last six meetings. The total had gone OVER in the last four meetings before ending as a PUSH a few weeks ago.

Calgary Stampeders (8-1-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6
Total: 56

Game Overview

Calgary continued to assert itself as the top team in the CFL with Monday’s victory. It was the Stampeders’ sixth SU win in a row while going a very profitable 5-0-1 ATS. The total went OVER the closing 55-point line against the Eskimos and it has gone OVER in three of their last five games. While Calgary’s offense has averaged 35.7 PPG during this winning streak, the defense has held opposing teams to fewer than 20 points in five of the six games.

The Eskimos’ current slide has reached three games both SU and ATS following an impressive SU seven-game winning streak to start the season. Edmonton has been a tough team to bet on all season long and it is 1-4 ATS in five previous home games this season. Mike Reilly completed 34 of his 53 passing attempts for 320 yards and two touchdowns in Monday’s losing cause, but he also tossed two interceptions to raise his total to nine on the year.

Betting Trends

-- The Stampeders have now won the last three meetings both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in the last four games between these two bitter West Division rivals.

[Udog]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Friday, September 8

Montreal @ BC Lions

Game 651-652
September 8, 2017 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
104.962
BC Lions
114.874
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
BC Lions
by 10
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
BC Lions
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
BC Lions
(-7 1/2); Over


Saturday, September 9

Calgary @ Edmonton

Game 657-658
September 9, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
123.287
Edmonton
110.330
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 13
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 6
56
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-6); Over

Hamilton @ Ottawa

Game 655-656
September 9, 2017 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
101.345
Ottawa
119.909
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 18 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
by 12
54
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(-12); Over

Saskatchewan @ Winnipeg

Game 653-654
September 9, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Saskatchewan
115.864
Winnipeg
122.327
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 6 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
by 1
60
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-1); Over

[Udog]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Friday, September 8

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MONTREAL (3 - 7) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (5 - 5) - 9/8/2017, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, September 9

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SASKATCHEWAN (5 - 4) at WINNIPEG (7 - 3) - 9/9/2017, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 131-95 ATS (+26.5 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game this season.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
WINNIPEG is 5-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HAMILTON (1 - 8) at OTTAWA (4 - 6 - 1) - 9/9/2017, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OTTAWA is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 5-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 5-1 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALGARY (8 - 1 - 1) at EDMONTON (7 - 3) - 9/9/2017, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 127-93 ATS (+24.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1996.
CALGARY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 52 over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56 over the last 2 seasons.
EDMONTON is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-3 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-3 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Montreal (3-7) @ BCLions (5-5)— Both teams lost last three games; Lions (-2.5) beat Alouettes 23-16 in Montreal in Week 3, game that was 6-6 at the half. Als lost five of last six visits here. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Montreal is 0-4 on road, 2-2 as a road underdog, with losses by 4-5-1-32 points on foreign soil. Under is 7-3 in Alouette games this season. Lions are 2-2 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 15-3 points. Under is 3-0-1 in their last four games. In its last three games, Montreal scored only 6-31-4 points.

Saskatchewan (5-4) @ Winnipeg (7-3)— Roughriders ended Winnipeg’s 5-game win streak with a 38-24 home win last week. Saskatchewan won its last three games, scoring 41-54-38 points after a 2-4 start- they lost 43-40 at home to Bombers earlier this season. Riders are 1-3 on road, 2-2 as a road underdog; under is 3-1 in their road games. Winnipeg is 3-1 at home, 2-1 as a home favorite; seven of their last eight games went over. Blue Bombers have scored 33+ points in 8 of their 10 games this season. Over is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Hamilton (1-8) @ Ottawa (4-6-1)— Short week for Tiger-Cats, who upset Toronto Monday for their first win of season. Hamilton is 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs; three of those four games went over total. Ottawa won its last three games after a 1-6-1 start; RedBlacks are 2-3-1 at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Under is 6-1-2 in their last nine games. Ti-Cats lost 37-18 at home to Ottawa three weeks ago; RedBlacks won five of last six series games- over is 5-2 in last seven series games. Hamilton split its four visits here.

Edmonton (7-3) @ Calgary (8-1-1)— Eskimos allowed 33-54-39 points in losing last three games after a 7-0 start that included five wins by 5 or less points. Edmonton is 3-2 on road, 2-2 vs spread as an underdog; over is 6-1 in their last seven games, 3-2 in their home games. Calgary is 15-3 in its last 18 series games, with last four games going over the total. Calgary won/covered its last six games; they’re 3-1-1 on road, 3-2 as road favorites. Over is 3-2 in their road games. Short week for both teams after Calgary beat Eskimos 39-18 at home on Labor Day.

[Udog]

CFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Friday, September 8

10:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Montreal's last 9 games when playing British Columbia
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
British Columbia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montreal


Saturday, September 9

3:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. WINNIPEG
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Winnipeg is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
Winnipeg is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

6:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Hamilton's last 5 games when playing Ottawa
Hamilton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Ottawa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Hamilton

9:00 PM
CALGARY vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games on the road
Calgary is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Calgary
Edmonton is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Calgary


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[StarDust Bum]

PREVIEW
ALS, LIONS SEARCH FOR A SPARK ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

VANCOUVER — It’s beginning to feel a lot like desperation time in the Alouettes and Lions’ respective camps.

Wally Buono’s BC squad is winless in over a month, offence has been hard to come by on a regular basis and the Leos’ star-studded defence has battled consistency issues.

Jacques Chapdelaine’s Montreal team is coming off a one-sided 32-4 defeat at the hands of the division-leading Ottawa REDBLACKS, and has been blown out in two of its last three outings.

Both clubs have seen their playoff hopes dim in recent weeks, but the good news is the post-season is still well within reach.

Hard-hitting veteran linebacker Kyries Hebert knows that despite their recent struggles, the Montreal Alouettes are far from out of the East Division playoff race.

“Right now we’re really focused on trying to be the best team we can be, not really focusing on what the record is but understanding where we are in the standings,” Hebert told MontrealAlouettes.com. “We’re still really close to a playoff spot, so we’re going to fight hard these last eight games.”

As for the challenge posed by the struggling Lions, Hebert believes the Alouettes control their own destiny as they head to the Pacific coast.

“The key to winning in BC is high energy and execution — we can’t allow the trip to have anything to do with it,” explained Hebert. “Overall, it’s mind over matter. If we go with a positive mindset (and) execute our plays, we’ll have a chance to win.”

Two-time CFL East Division All-Star centre Luc Brodeur-Jourdain says the offence — limited to just 277 total yards and no touchdowns by Ottawa — needs to step up.

“We know we have to be better offensively, especially in the red zone,” admitted Brodeur-Jourdain. “Despite the adversity we’ve faced since the beginning of the season, the spirit of the team is very positive (and) we’re still focused on team success.”

The 34-year-old veteran insists that despite Montreal’s struggles in recent weeks, team morale has not dropped.

“Whether it’s been injuries, or the losses to Toronto or Ottawa, nobody has let their heads drop,” continued the Laval alumnus. “Thankfully, the standings are still tight in the East.”

The Alouettes released backup quarterback Jacory Harris — formerly of the Hamilton Tiger-Cats — this week. They also added international tackle Xavier Fulton, who was released by the Ticats more than a week ago. Fulton is in the lineup and ready to back up Jovan Olafioye, who’s expected to return this week to his usual left tackle post.

Injured Alouettes linebacker Anthony Sarao will not play on Noel Thorpe’s defence this week. He’s replaced in the lineup by Branden Dozier.

The BC Lions have something to prove to themselves and the rest of the West Division on Friday night at BC Place. Wally Buono’s squad has not won in four weeks and finds itself slipping to the back of the ultra-competitive pack in the CFL’s West Division.

“You can’t win a bunch of games unless you win the first one so that’s where we’re at,” Friday night’s Lions starting quarterback, Travis Lulay, told BCLions.com. “We’ve got Montreal. They’re coming off three straight losses and trying to find themselves a little bit too. They’re still in the race in the East so it’s a big game for them and us.”

Lulay got the nod for Friday’s matchup against the Alouettes following BC’s Week 10 loss in the nation’s capital; the veteran pivot completed 18 of 23 passes for 202 yards, a pair of touchdowns and an almost-comeback at TD Place.

Were it not for a late interception off a deflection, Lulay might have led the largest comeback in CFL history. With that said, there’s no reason his Lions can’t turn around their season.

“The one championship I won here, we were 1-6 before we started winning football games,” said Lulay. “The vets understand there is a lot of football left. There is a sense of urgency when you see what’s happening in the West.”

With virtually everybody in the West minus Edmonton picking up points in recent weeks, the slide of the Lions — winless in their last three — has been exacerbated.

“We’ve given up 21 passes over 30 yards, (but) we’re number one against the run,” said legendary Lions head coach Wally Buono. “(If) you eliminate half those mistakes — and most have been mistakes — and we’d probably have another win or two.”

Playing cleaner football on defence is a major key for BC this week, especially given the fact its opponents — Darian Durant and the Alouettes — failed to find the end zone against Ottawa last week.

“You’re going to get beat sometimes, but if you eliminate a large portion (of mistakes) that were either lack of discipline or mental mistakes, that makes you a better football team,” continued Buono. “I’m going to say it’s communication, but it’s also execution.”

With Mic’hael Brooks on the six-game injured list, the Lions will go with rookie D-end Ken Boatright; the Southern Illinois product will be making his CFL debut.

The athletic Micah Awe will start at linebacker in place of Tony Burnett, who will dress as backup. Awe — a Nigerian national — is a promising prospect for the Lions; the 1994-born rookie has looked sharp on specials in his debut campaign after a productive four-year career at Texas Tech.

With the Lions’ D-line struggling to generate pressure, the team hopes that Boatright and Awe can make a difference in the front seven. Either way, Alex Bazzie could soon be back on the roster following as the former Lions defensive end considers his options following an NFL stint.

By The Numbers

18 – Turnovers committed by the Alouettes offence, a fairly middle-of-the-pack (4th) number compared to BC’s league-high 24.

73 – League-leading tackles registered by veteran BC linebacker Solomon Elimimian.

94.8 – CFL-leading QUAR rating for Lions pivot Travis Lulay.

203 — Points scored by Montreal, the second-fewest in the league ahead of only 1-8 Hamilton (172).

The Skinny

Well, one of these two teams will break out of a slump.

Come Friday, it will have been four weeks since either claimed points; in that time, other teams — Saskatchewan and Calgary in the West, Ottawa in the East — have widened their respective gap over the Lions and Als.

Travis Lulay is deservedly getting a start, but will it be enough to give the Lions a much-needed win? Can Darian Durant jolt the Alouette offence to life?

The road ahead certainly doesn’t get any easier after Week 12 for either team; Week 13 sees the Lions face a trip to the proverbial lion’s den in Calgary to face the Stamps, while Montreal returns home to host the first-place and red-hot Ottawa REDBLACKS.

Given what’s ahead on the schedule, the two points up for grabs on Friday night in Vancouver gain even more meaning as the Lions and Als fight to remain relevant in their respective divisions.

Kickoff is slated for 10:00 p.m. ET and can be followed live via CFL.ca Game Tracker and seen on TSN and ESPN 3.

[Udog]

PREVIEW
ALS, LIONS SEARCH FOR A SPARK ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Thank you!!!

I don't understand it, Bum, but my CFL source just forgot about the league 3 weeks ago. I'm glad your source realizes they're still playing!

Everything gets shoved to the back burner once college football starts, I guess. Too bad.

The really odd thing is that my source's head office is in Canada. Go figure....

[StarDust Bum]

LOL.............it seems to be like that every year........owell it can be a good thing that the focus is on american football......you can get some big STEALS in the CFL.........