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The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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  • West coast trip has Eagles prepared for Super Bowl week
    January 22, 2018


    PHILADELPHIA -- In early December, the Philadelphia Eagles spent a week on the west coast between road games against the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams.

    They did it strictly for convenience. They didn't want to have to make back-to-back cross-country plane flights.

    As it turns out, that week together on the road might benefit them next week when they travel to Minneapolis for Super Bowl week.

    "We talked back then that this was sort of a precursor for hopefully this (Super Bowl) opportunity," Eagles head coach Doug Pederson said Monday, less than a day after his team advanced to Super Bowl LII with an impressive 38-7 win over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. "Kind of going through it a little bit with the team hotel (in Orange County, Calif.), the meetings, the travel to a practice site, the media obligations, and things like that.

    "Now, having been through it, it makes it a little easier going up to Minneapolis. But it's just on a grander, bigger stage obviously. The attention will be a lot more. There will be a lot more distractions, a lot more pulling on coaches, players and personnel. Having gone through it in L.A. has really given us a leg up now going up there in a week."

    That trip worked out well. After losing to the Seahawks in Seattle, they bounced back and beat the Rams, 43-35, which helped them get the NFC home-field advantage in the playoffs.

    When they board a charter for Minnesota next Monday, it will be the first time they will be out of the city since the playoffs began, beating both Atlanta and the Vikings at Lincoln Financial Field.

    --Eagles All Pro right tackle Lane Johnson wasted little time giving the Patriots bulletin-board material. Asked about playing the Patriots, who defeated the Eagles by three points 13 years ago in their last Super Bowl appearance, he said, "Tom Brady, pretty boy Tom Brady. He's, hey, the best quarterback of all-time. Nothing more I would like than to dethrone that guy."

    Despite being the No. 1 seed and despite playing at home, the Eagles were betting underdogs in both of their first two playoff games. Vegas listed them as a 5.5-point underdog Monday in Super Bowl LII. Johnson and defensive end Chris Long bought dog masks last week, which they wore after the game to signify their underdog status.

    Asked what he would do now that they are Super Bowl dogs, Johnson said, "There ain't no damn telling what I'm going to do. I may wear a bleeping moose mask. Since we're in Minnesota, shoot, probably a snowman mask. It'll be something funny, I guarantee you."

    --In the 10 regular-season quarters he played after replacing injured quarterback Carson Wentz, Nick Foles completed just 11-of-27 passes on third down. The Eagles, who had been the league's best third-down offense before Wentz got hurt, converted just eight-of-35 third-down opportunities in those 10 quarters with Foles. But the playoffs have been another matter. In the Eagles' two postseason wins, Foles has completed 15-of-18 third-down passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns. Both of those two third-down TDs came in Sunday's runaway win over the Vikings, including a 53-yard bomb to Alshon Jeffery on third-and-10.

    "The fact that he's had a chance to work with our guys now for the past month, there's a lot more confidence there," head coach Doug Pederson said. "They're on the same page. The run game (success) obviously helps. Some of the play-action stuff we've done helps him. Listen, that's who Nick is. Just having time now with the offense has been able to open up some of those opportunities down the field."

    --Left tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai faced his biggest challenge of the season Sunday when he spent much of the night battling the Vikings' three-time Pro-Bowl right defensive end Everson Griffen. The Eagles gave Vaitai some help and he wasn't perfect. But he did a good job keeping Nick Foles upright.

    "I thought Big V played exceptionally well," Pederson said. "We did help him from time to time, but there were also times he had to be on an island and block a tremendous defensive end who has had a heck of a year. We had a lot of confidence in V."

    REPORT CARD VS. VIKINGS

    --PASSING OFFENSE: A-plus -
    - Nick Foles made mincemeat of the league's top defense. He completed 26-of-33 passes, averaged 9.7 yards per attempt and had three TDs and no interceptions. He was 10-for-11 for 159 yards on third down, with two third-down TD passes to Alshon Jeffery.

    --RUSHING OFFENSE: B-plus -
    - LeGarrette Blount's impressive up-the-middle 11-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter gave the Eagles the lead for good. Jay Ajayi had a good game, rushing for 73 yards on 18 carries. Corey Clement had 20 yards on his only two carries.

    --PASS DEFENSE: A -- The Eagles forced two big early turnovers off quarterback Case Keenum. Patrick Robinson had a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown, and Derek Barnett's strip-sack killed a Vikings scoring opportunity. The Eagles limited the Vikings' top two receivers, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, to 8.9 yards per catch and no TDs.

    --RUSH DEFENSE: B-plus -
    -The Vikings rushed for 27 yards on six carries on their first possession, then the Eagles defense shut the door, holding them to 3.6 yards per carry the rest of the game.

    --SPECIAL TEAMS: A --
    Jake Elliott converted his only field-goal attempt, a 38-yarder, and had six touchbacks on six kickoffs. Donnie Jones had a 43.3-yard net average, put all three of his punts inside the 20, and didn't allow dangerous Marcus Sherels to return any of them.

    --COACHING: A-plus - Doug Pederson seemed to be a step ahead of Mike Zimmer's defense all night. Nick Foles' use of run-pass options, so effective a week earlier against Atlanta, kept the Vikings' No. 1-ranked defense off-balance the entire game.
    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

    Comment


    • Brady faces possible MVP jinx
      January 23, 2018

      Super Bowl MVP QB Curse

      When the Denver Broncos upended the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50, it might not have been all that surprising to history lovers. Not when winning the NFL MVP award has been a kiss of death for quarterbacks in Super Bowl games.

      And when it comes to the biggest game the NFL has to offer, our well-oiled database confirms the fact that MVP winning quarterbacks have struggled in the big game since the inception of the Super Bowl in 1967.

      It can safely stated that these MVP trophy winners have suffered a fate similar to Heisman Trophy winners in bowl games, as MVP winners are just 19-25 SU (straight up) and 12-31-1 ATS (against the spread) in postseason games dating back to 1974.

      Here is the league record of same season NFL QB MVP's playing in Super Bowl games throughout the history of the NFL's crown jewel:

      1967 - SB I - Bart Starr - Packers (-14) 35, Chiefs 10 - win and cover

      1969 - SB III - Earl Morrall - Colts (-18) 7, Jets 16 - lose no cover

      1979 - SB XIII - Terry Bradshaw - Steelers (-3.5) 35, Cowboys 31 - win and cover

      1982 - SB XVI - Ken Anderson - Bengals (+1) 21, 49ers 26 – lose no cover

      1984 - SB XVIII - Joe Theismann - Redskins (-3) 9, Raiders 38 - lose no cover

      1985 - SB XIX - Dan Marino - Dolphins (+3.5) 16, 49ers 38 - lose no cover

      1988 - SB XXII - John Elway - Broncos (-3) 10, Redskins 42 - lose no cover

      1989 - SB XXIII - Boomer Esiason - Bengals (+7) 16, 49ers 20 - lose and cover

      1990 - SB XXIV - Joe Montana – 49ers (-12) 55, Broncos 10 - win and cover

      1995 - SB XXIX - Steve Young – 49ers (-18.5) 49, Chargers 26 - win and cover

      1997 - SB XXXI - Brett Favre - Packers (-14) 35, Patriots 21 - win and push

      1998 - SB XXXII - Brett Favre - Packers (-11) 24, Broncos 31 - lose no cover

      2000 - SB XXXIV - Kurt Warner - Rams (-7) 23, Titans 16 - win and push

      2002 - SB XXXVI - Kurt Warner - Rams (-14) 17, Patriots 20 - lose no cover

      2003 - SB XXXVII - Rich Gannon - Raiders (-4) 21, Buccaneers 48 - lose no cover

      2008 - SB XLII - Tom Brady - Patriots (-12) 14, Giants 17 - lose no cover

      2010 - SB XLIV - Peyton Manning - Colts (-5) 17, Saints 31 - lose no cover

      2014 - SB XLVIII - Peyton Manning - Broncos (-2) 8, Seahawks 43 - lose no cover

      2016 - SB L - Cam Newton - Panthers (-4.5) 10, Broncos 24 - lose no cover

      2017 - SB LI - Matt Ryan - Falcons (+3) 28, Patriots 34 - lose no cover

      Collectively these NFL MVP Super Bowl quarterbacks are 6-14 SU and 5-13-2 ATS in all games, including 0-7 both SU & ATS since 2002.

      Arguably the most infamous loser was Baltimore Colts NFL MVP QB Earl Morrall, who lost 16-7 as an 18-point favorite to Joe Willie Namath and the New York Jets in SB III. Last year’s historic record-breaking comeback win by New England over Atlanta’s MVP award-winning QB Matt Ryan was just the icing on the cake.

      Rest assured, with Patriots’ QB Tom Brady expected to be announced the NFL MVP winner for the 2017 season the night before Super Bowl LII, we'll pay close attention to New England’s fate in this year’s Super Bowl spectacular.
      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

      Comment


      • 52 Super Betting Angles
        January 28, 2018


        Super Bowl LII between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles will be the 52nd installment of the big game on Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018 from Minneapolis, Minnesota.

        Before you start handicapping the matchup and prop wagers, you should check out 52 betting angles and trends that our VegasInsider.com Editorial staff have uncovered for this year’s Super Bowl.

        1 – In the first 50 Super Bowls, only one was decided by exactly one point – Super Bowl XXV in in 1991 when the Giants defeated the Bills 17-16 from Tampa, Florida as seven-point underdogs.

        2 – This is the second Super Bowl to be played in Minnesota. The first came in January 1992 in another battle of NFC East vs. AFC East when the Redskins beat the Bills, 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI at the Metrodome.

        3 – Six Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. The Patriots and Eagles were involved in a three-point decision in Super Bowl XXXIX, while New England has participated in four Super Bowls decided by three points or less (3-1).

        4 – New England is ranked 31st in opponents yards per rush attempt at 4.6. Philadelphia's defense was almost a yard better, only allowing 3.8 rushing yards per attempt (ranked 7th).

        5 – The Patriots are averaging 5.9 yards per play on offense, which is the fourth best mark in the NFL. The Eagles aren't far behind in the ninth spot, with 5.5 YPP.

        6 – Nick Foles (Arizona) will be looking to become the sixth quarterback from a Pac-12 school to win a Super Bowl. The other five are Aaron Rodgers (California), John Elway (Stanford), Troy Aikman (UCLA), Mark Rypien (Washington State), and Jim Plunkett (Stanford).

        7 – Seven Eagles recorded an offensive play of 50 yards or more this season, compared to only two Patriots who put together a 50-yard play.

        8 – Patriots' tight end Rob Gronkowski is 'questionable' with a concussion suffered in the AFC title game. Gronkowski has made eight receptions in two Super Bowls as he missed last year's game with a back injury. He has a prop wager of 5 total receptions against the Eagles.

        9 – The Eagles rushed for nine touchdowns this season, which ranked last among the 12 teams that qualified for the postseason. Yes (-130) opened as a slight favorite over No (+100) for the prop on if Philadelphia will score a rushing touchdown.

        10 – There have been 10 situations where a head coach was making his debut in the Super Bowl versus a head coach with Super Bowl experience. This took place last season as Atlanta's Dan Quinn came up short to New England's Bill Belichick. Prior to that outcome, the Super Bowl rookie coach had won the two previous situations which recently took place in Super Bowl XLVIII with Pete Carroll’s Seahawks knocking off John Fox’s Broncos, 43-8.

        11 – This is the 11th Super Bowl played between teams from the AFC East and NFC East. Teams from the NFC East have compiled an impressive 8-2 mark in these matchups.

        12 – Of the 102 quarterbacks who have started a Super Bowl, 25 of them have worn number 12 (Tom Brady). Those signal callers have gone 14-11 overall and that is the most wins by quarterbacks wearing 12 in SB history.

        13 - The Rams and Packers are tied with the fewest number of rushing attempts (13) by teams that won a Super Bowl.

        14 – The fewest points scored by a winning team in a Super Bowl was 14, which came in Super Bowl VII when the Dolphins defeated the Redskins 14-7.

        15 – Only one quarterback has thrown 15 touchdown passes in Super Bowl history. That man is Tom Brady, as the only other quarterback to compile double-digit touchdown passes in Super Bowl history is Joe Montana (11).

        16 – Sixteen times in Super Bowl history prior to last season has the game been decided by seven points or less. The next year in this scenario, the Super Bowl has been decided by a double-digit margin 13 times.

        17 – Philadelphia is the fifth team in Super Bowl history to take an 0-2 record into its third Super Bowl. The first three squads (Minnesota, Denver, and Buffalo) all lost in their third Super Bowl appearance, while scoring 17 points or fewer in each defeat. The fourth team in this scenario? The 2001 Patriots, who beat the Rams, 20-17 on a last-second field goal.

        18 – Both the Eagles and Patriots each ranked in the top 5 of the NFL in points allowed per game. Philadelphia yielded 18.4 PPG, while New England gave up 18.5 PPG in the regular season.

        19 – Tom Brady has faced NFC East opponents 19 times in his career, including three times in the Super Bowl. The Patriots own a 14-5 SU and 8-10-1 ATS record in these contests, but are 0-3 ATS in the Super Bowl against the Giants and Eagles.

        20 – The most combined penalties called in a Super Bowl was 20, which happened twice in 50 games. Dallas and Denver did so in Super Bowl XII and the Patriots and Panthers followed suit in SBXXXVIII.

        21 – Bettors have seen underdogs cover the point-spread in 21 of the 51 Super Bowls and 14 of those clubs pulled off outright victories.

        22 – This will be the 22nd career game played at a venue that is indoors or has a retractable roof for New England quarterback Tom Brady. The Patriots have gone 18-4 in those games and coincidentally three of the setbacks came in the Super Bowl.

        23 (A) – According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, sportsbooks have posted a “profit” in 23 of the last 25 Super Bowls largely due to prop wager outcomes. The two matchups they lost on came in 1995 when San Francisco annihilated San Diego and in 2008 when the New York Giants upset the New England Patriots.

        23 (B) – The Eagles were ranked second in scoring defense (17.3 PPG) but the unit didn’t travel well, allowing 23.5 PPG which was the 10th worst among the 12 playoff teams.

        24 – In the first 51 Super Bowls, 24 of them have been decided by 14 points or more.

        25 – In 36 career playoff games, Patriots QB Tom Brady has averaged nearly 25 completions per game (24.7). For Super Bowl 52, his proposition wager on total completions opened at 26 ½.

        26 – The longest time that elapsed in a Super Bowl before either team scored was 26 minutes, which occurred in SB38 between New England and Carolina. Despite the slow start, the pair combined 24 at the end of the first half and a SB record 37 in the final 15 minutes as the Patriots won 32-29 over the Panthers.

        27 – Since Tom Brady took over as quarterback of the Patriots in 2001, New England has won 27 playoff games. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has compiled 21 postseason victories in franchise history.

        28 (A) – Philadelphia only faced three playoff teams during the regular season and all of the games took place on the road. They went 2-1 in those games despite allowing 28.3 PPG. The ‘over’ went 2-0-1.

        28 (B) – Quarterbacks have captured the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award 28 times. Tom Brady (2/3) and Nick Foles (7/2) are the top two betting choices for this year’s popular prop wager.

        29 – The Eagles went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread versus AFC opponents this season while the offense averaged 29 PPG. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

        30 – Including the 38-7 win over the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, QB Nick Foles has thrown for three touchdown passes or more nine times in his career. His teams have gone 8-1 in those games while the offense has averaged 30 PPG. Brady has had 87 games in his career with 3-plus TDs, with 10 coming in the postseason.

        31 – The Eagles were ranked fourth in the regular season with 31 takeaways, highlighted with 19 interceptions and 12 fumbles. In the playoffs, they forced three turnovers which all came against Minnesota in the NFC Championship.

        32 – The Patriots have averaged 32.6 points per game in their last five playoff games. New England has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 in those games and it has gone ‘over’ its team total in four of five as well.

        33 – Eagles running back Jay Ajayi only had 77 carries in seven games during the regular season but that number jumped up to 33 in the postseason. His Super Bowl prop for rushing attempts is listed at 13 ½.

        34 – With this game included, New England owns the record for most appearances in the Super Bowl with 10 and the most points they every scored was 34, which occured in last year's overtime win (34-28) over Atlanta in Super Bowl 51 (LI).

        35 – The most points ever scored in the first-half of a Super Bowl came in SB22 as the Redskins posted 35 points on the Broncos, all of the scores coming in the second quarter. New England has a team total of 13 ½ in the first-half of SB52 while Philadelphia opened at 10 ½ points.

        36 – New England has played 36 postseason games with Tom Brady under center and the team has gone 27-9 in those games.

        37 – The most points the Eagles have allowed in a playoff victory came in the 1995 Wild Card round against the Lions in a 58-37 blowout.

        38 – New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski made 38-of-42 field goals (90.5%) this season, which was ranked fourth in the league. Eagles kicker Jake Elliot converted 85.7 percent (30-of-35) and also missed four extra points (44-of-48). Gostkowki was 53-of-55 in PATs.

        39 – In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.

        40 – The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook listed a Safety as the first scoring play of SBLII at 40/1 odds. There have been nine safeties occur in a Super Bowl and it happened to be the first score in three of the finales (SBIX, SBXLVI, SBXLVIII).

        41 – New England posted a season-high 41 points in Week 10 as it captured a 41-16 road win over Denver in a Sunday Night affair.

        42 – New England racked up 42 sacks in the regular season, which was tied for the seventh best mark in the league. The unit added 11 more to that total in two playoffs games.

        43 – Philadelphia averaged 28.5 PPG on the road and they scored a season-high as visitors in Week 14 when they posted a 43-35 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

        44 – Washington Redskins running back John Riggins wore number 44 and he’s the only Super Bowl MVP that had a jersey listed in the forties. The most common range for SB MVP jersey numbers falls between 10 and 19.

        45 – The most points New England has scored in the postseason with Tom Brady under center was 45, which occurred twice. The Patriots blasted the Broncos (45-10) in the 2011 postseason and the Colts 45-7 in the 2015 playoffs.

        46 – The Patriots were held to 46 rushing yards in their 24-20 win over Jacksonville in the AFC Championship, which was the second-lowest production this season. When held under 70 rushing yards this season, New England went 2-1 SU but 0-3 ATS.

        47 – Philadelphia had its opponents return 47 kickoffs this season, which was tied for the second-most in the NFL. Opponents averaged 21.6 yards per return. New England was first in returns allowed at 58 but its average was 18.9, which was the third-best special teams unit.

        48 – The total on this year’s Super Bowl is hovering between 48 and 48 ½ points. The Eagles have had two totals fall in this neighborhood and the results ended in a stalemate (1-1). New England has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 with numbers closing at 48 or 48 ½.

        49 – The Eagles have combined for 49 first downs in their two postseason games, which is up from their regular season average of 21.5. Philadelphia was ranked fourth in that category, while New England owns the top spot with an average of 24.6 first downs per game.

        49 – San Francisco captured a 49-26 victory over San Diego in Super Bowl 29, which was the only time a team scored exactly seven touchdowns and extra points in a game. The 75 combined points was also the most ever scored in a Super Bowl.

        50 - Philadelphia had seven plays this regular season register 50-plus yards and two of them came on rushing attempts. In the postseason, they added a 53-yard reception and also posted 41 and 42-yard catches as well. The Patriots were less explosive and only managed two plays that were more than 50 yards.

        51 – The Eagles scored a season-high 51 points in Week 9 as they blasted the Broncos 51-23 at home. The last time Philadelphia posted 50-plus on the scoreboard, Chip Kelly was the head coach in the 2013 season.

        52 – Eagles QB Nick Foles has suited up for 52 games in his NFL career and his teams have gone 31-21 overall and that includes an 11-11 mark away from home.
        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

        Comment


        • Monday’s 6-pack

          More Super Bowl props: First accepted penalty of the game:

          3-1— Offsides/encroachment

          3-1— Holding

          7-2— False start

          5-1— Illegal block

          6-1— Pass interference

          15-1— Delay of game

          3-1— Any other penalty

          75-1— No penalties in game

          Quote of the Day

          “We’ve had a few conversations about second base, a few conversations about first base. I’ll play wherever they want me to play.”
          Milwaukee Brewers’ star, 34-year old Ryan Braun

          Monday’s quiz

          Ground Hog Day is later this week; in what state does the Ground Hog see or not see his shadow?

          Sunday’s quiz
          Hall of Famer Chuck Noll became the coach of the Steelers in 1969; he was defensive coordinator of the Baltimore Colts before the Steelers hired him as head coach.

          Saturday’s quiz
          Eldrick Woods win his first PGA Tour event at the 1996 Las Vegas Invitational, in a playoff over Davis Love III


          **********************************************


          Monday’s List of 13: A small sampling of Super Bowl prop bets

          Some of the many, many prop bets on the Super Bowl:
          13) Simple one: Patriots are -5, with a total of 48.5

          12) You can get 8-1 odds that the Eagles will score exactly 20 points; same for 21 points.

          11) You can get 8-1 odds that the Patriots will score exactly 27 points; same for 28 points.

          10) Odds on player to score first points:
          7-2— Both kickers
          10-1— Rob Gronkowski
          12-1— Jeffery, Ajayi, Blount, Lewis, Amendola
          14-1— James White

          18-1— Brandin Cooks
          25-1— Clement, Torrey Smith

          9) Exact magic of victory:
          Eagles by 1-6 points: 4-1
          by 7-12 points: 7-1
          by 13-18 points: 10-1
          by 19-24 points: 25-1
          by 25-30 points: 12-1
          by more than 30 points: 100-1

          8) Exact magic of victory:
          Patriots by 1-6 points: 5-2
          by 7-12 points: 4-1
          by 13-18 points: 11-2
          by 19-24 points: 8-1
          by 25-30 points: 12-1
          by more than 30 points: 20-1

          7) Over/under receiving yards for Brandin Cooks: 63.5

          6) Over/under for Tom Brady’s longest completion: 40.5 yards

          5) Over/under for Tom Brady’s first completion: 8.5 yards

          4) Over/under for Donnie Jones’ longest gross punt: 54.5 yards

          3) Over/under receiving yards for Zach Ertz: 60.5

          2) Over/under for Nick Foles’ longest completion: 38.5 yards

          1) Largest lead in game: 13.5. Over -$150, Under +$135
          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

          Comment


          • One week out from Super Bowl LII, it's all Eagles action so far
            Patrick Everson


            Super Bowl LII has been bet into for almost a week now, and yet the line still hasn’t stabilized, continuing to trend downward at several shops. Patrick Everson checks in on the action and line movement, with insights from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, and Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com.

            Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6.5; Move: -6: Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

            New England has the extensive Super Bowl resume, complete with an overflowing trophy case. But the Patriots’ performance in the AFC title game and the uncertain status of Rob Gronkowski aren’t an attractive combination to bettors. New England (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) rallied to beat Jacksonville 24-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite.

            Meanwhile, bettors can’t seem to help themselves to enough of Philadelphia after its blowout victory in the NFC final. The Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) hammered Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog, making believers of customers at Nevada and offshore books.

            “It’s been all Eagles up to this point,” Avello said of action at the Wynn, which on Friday night dropped the Patriots from -5 to -4.5. “They even took 4.5 last night for a good amount. Normally, I’d be at 4, if the game was this Sunday. But since we’ve got a whole week to go, I’m gonna wait and see if we get some takers on the Patriots.”

            Like many other shops, the Wynn is seeing plenty of Philly action on the moneyline, which opened New England -230/Philadelphia +195. Those numbers have dipped to -180/+160. Avello says there’s an X-factor to turning around the current betting trends – Gronkowski’s status.

            “If Gronkowski gets announced that he’s playing, which I think is gonna happen, that’ll maybe stabilize the line or even push it up a little bit,” he said.

            TheGreek.com opened New England -5.5, dipped to -5 on Wednesday, then hit -4.5 (-115) on Saturday.

            “We’ve accumulated ‘dog money along the way,” Kaminsky said, while noting action has slowed a bit in the calm before the storm. “The sharps are probably done for now. We’re not seeing much action and probably won’t until next weekend.”

            Wynn Las Vegas opened the total at 47, and after a quick burst to 48, that number hasn’t moved since late last Sunday.

            “The total is kind of a dead issue. It won’t be as we get closer to the game, but as of now, it’s drawing the least interest of all the options, including the props,” Avello said.
            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

            Comment


            • Rob Gronkowski's concussion injury impacting early Super Bowl wagering
              Patrick Everson

              We’re just a few days into Super Bowl betting, but some trends are already starting to unfold. Everson checks in on the action and line movement for the big game on Feb. 4, with insights from Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas, and with the lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets.eu.

              Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -5

              New England is certainly in a familiar spot, once again playing in the final game of the year, but it took a big comeback to get there. The Patriots (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) needed most of Sunday’s AFC championship game to climb out of a 14-3 hole against Jacksonville, ultimately escaping with a 24-20 home victory as a 7.5-point home chalk.

              The Pats also lost tight end Rob Gronkowski during the game, and he’s currently in concussion protocol.

              Philadelphia (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) had struggled a lot in the scoring department since Nick Foles stepped in for the injured Carson Wentz at quarterback. But those struggles went away in Sunday’s NFC title tilt, with the Eagles running away from Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog.

              With Gronkowski’s status uncertain and Philly coming off an impressive performance, betting is lopsided at Miller’s shop on Fremont Street.

              “Right away, in the first minute we had the game up, I took a $10,000 moneyline bet on the Eagles,” Miller said, noting the moneyline opened Patriots -250/Eagles +200. “So we dropped the moneyline to -240/+190 and the pointspread from 6 to 5.5. We didn’t really get any money at +6, but we got a lot at +5.5 the last few days. Then we went to 5, and they’re still taking +5.”

              Miller said the moneyline is now at New England -200/Philadelphia +170, and bettors continue to hit the Eagles.

              “All the sentimental bets are on the Eagles, on the pointspread and moneyline. People are just kind of burned out on the Patriots,” Miller said. “The sharp money is lurking, waiting to see how low this drops. It’ll go back up next week, when the bulk of the money starts to show up.”

              And of course, providing Gronk is cleared, that will take the line north as well.

              Meanwhile, at GTBets.eu, the Patriots opened -5.5 and dipped to 5. (For reviews of online sportsbooks visit OddsShark.com)

              “So far, 60 percent of side bets are on New England, which is less than expected and also why the line has dropped to 5,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “The total has barely budged, going from 47.5 to 48, and 70 percent of the action is on the over at this point. With the reasonable amount of action on the Eagles, I would expect the line to drop to 4.5, and the total to increase possibly another point to 49.”

              The Golden Nugget was also at 48 on the total and a little heavy to the under, but that’s of little concern to Miller at this point.

              “They’ll eventually pound the over,” he said. “So I’m not worried about that at all.”
              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

              Comment


              • NFL
                Dunkel

                Super Bowl


                Sunday, February 4

                Philadelphia @ New England

                Game 101-102
                February 4, 2018 @ 6:30 pm

                Dunkel Rating:
                Philadelphia
                137.026
                New England
                146.612
                Dunkel Team:
                Dunkel Line:
                Dunkel Total:
                New England
                by 9 1/2
                44
                Vegas Team:
                Vegas Line:
                Vegas Total:
                New England
                by 5 1/2
                48 1/2
                Dunkel Pick:
                New England
                (-5 1/2); Under





                NFL
                Long Sheet

                Super Bowl


                Sunday, February 4

                --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                PHILADELPHIA (15 - 3) vs. NEW ENGLAND (15 - 3) - 2/4/2018, 6:30 PM
                Top Trends for this game.
                NEW ENGLAND is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 27-9 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
                NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

                Head-to-Head Series History
                PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
                PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
                1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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                NFL
                Armadillo's Write-Up

                Super Bowl


                tba here....




                NFL

                Super Bowl


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                Trend Report
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                Sunday, February 4

                PHILADELPHIA @ NEW ENGLAND
                Philadelphia is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
                Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
                New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
                New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                Comment


                • Super Bowl 52 Betting Update
                  January 29, 2018


                  The VegasInsider.com Super Bowl 52 Betting Update will provide daily betting updates from Micah Roberts in Las Vegas for this year's NFL finale between New England and Philadelphia, which is set for Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018.

                  Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 13 years.

                  Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Props | Super Bowl 52 Line Moves

                  Update - Tuesday, Jan. 30, 2018 - 10:45 a.m. ET

                  There was a whole lot of movement Monday on the Super Bowl 52 odds board with -5 finally making a complete disappearance in Las Vegas, a couple books dropping down to -4 and another taking a $1 million wager on the Eagles money-line.

                  The Golden Nugget was the last book in town to move to -4.5, and it happened after the Westgate, Boyd Gaming, South Point and Station Casinos all moved the Patriots down to -4. Respected offshore book 5Dimes.eu also moved to -4 shortly after the South Point did.

                  William Hill also dropped its money-line down to -180/+160 on Monday thanks to a $1 million wager accepted on the Eagles to win outright at +165. It's the largest bet William Hill has taken for this Super Bowl. Should the Eagles win, the bettor will cash in $2.65 Million.

                  The Eagles risk is REALLY piling up in Nevada.

                  The Patriots -180 on the money-line is the lowest in town and offered by the South Point, CG Technology, Wynn Resorts, Golden Nugget, Stratosphere and Station Casinos, along with William Hill.

                  I'll bet it gets lower. Keep waiting if you want Patriots money-line.

                  Update - Monday, Jan. 29, 2018 - 12:15 p.m. ET


                  The Golden Nugget is the last bet shop showing a 5 in Las Vegas for Sunday's Super Bowl which initially opened as a high of Patriots -6.5 last week. Every sports book has gone to -4.5, or -4 (-120) like Boyd Gaming. If you're a late comer to the betting party and want to get maximum value on the Eagles, you might want to hurry downtown.

                  "The next big hit, I'm moving," Nugget book director Tony Miller said Sunday night. "We're close."

                  He was still there Monday morning.

                  Has most of the Eagles money already gotten down? Will we see a flip on who the city needs like two years ago when Carolina was bet heavy for the first 12 days of that Super Bowl season, only to see Broncos money pour in the final two nights of betting.

                  William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada were one of the last to make the move to -4.5 on Sunday morning. Three hours later they dropped the total down to 48 after being 48.5 for the past six days. The Golden Nugget, Station Casinos and Stratosphere are the only books sitting at 48.5. Caesars Palace also moved to -4.5 on Sunday afternoon.

                  Something to talk more about as the final weekend approaches is whether Nevada will set a handle record for the third straight years. Last year was $138.5 million, and reviews are mixed of whether a new record will be set when sports books reviewed the same weekend last season.

                  "Our handle has been way up this year," said Miller, "Both the game and props."

                  Jay Rood, the VP at MGM Resorts, also has considerably more handle thanks to the multi-million dollar bet on the Eagles (+5.5) he took Wednesday. South Point sports book director Chris Andrews also said his handle is "definitely" high than last year so far, and so did Jason Simbal from CG Technology books.

                  However, Westgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay wasn't bullish in the first week comparisons, nor was William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. So we'll see where this goes. In most cases -- maybe not MGM -- there's still 85 percent of the Super Bowl action to be wagered.

                  Destination question? Sunscreen or layers of clothes? Where you going this weekend? It's supposed to be a sunny 76 degrees in Las Vegas Sunday. It's 7 degrees with 9 mph winds in Minneapolis on Sunday. There's still rooms available for the best Super Bowl party in the world. Choices range from around $375 per night at the Cosmopolitan or Venetian to cheaper places like $65 a night at the Stratosphere or Circus Circus. Book it if you've never been in town for Super Bowl weekend.

                  Update - Friday, Jan. 26, 2018 - 2:25 p.m. ET


                  We've now got six Las Vegas sports books that have dropped their Super Bowl line below Patriots -5 with one, Boyd Gaming, dropping down to -4 -120 early Friday morning. CG Technology books made their move to -4.5 Friday at 10:08 a.m. PT.

                  "We haven't had any of the huge Eagles bets like some of the other books, but it's been a nice consistent flow of Eagles money building and it was just time to go," said CG's VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We've got a 2.3-to-1 ticket ratio favoring the Eagles."

                  Boyd Gaming sports book director Bob Scucci was unavailable for comment on what caused his book to drop to the lowest number in town, but it certainly wasn't an air move. Scucci's a veteran bookmaker and I'll speculate that it had to be a massive wager for him to jump ahead of the curve in town on the biggest game of the year.

                  It could even be the same guy who made the multi-million dollar Eagles wager at MGM Resorts. But again, that's just speculation on my part.

                  How about we take a look from the point of view of books staying at -5, which now consists of Caesars Palace, the Golden Nugget, William Hill, Wynn Resorts and the Stratosphere.

                  "We opened Patriots at -6 on Sunday night and quickly went to -5.5, which stood until Wednesday when dropped down to -5," said Stratosphere sports book director Ed Malinowski as he was putting the finishing touches on his props. "We've seen mostly Eagles action so far with tickets written at a 2-to-1 ratio and cash taken in at 3-to-1."

                  Malinowski hasn't reached his threshold for a move yet so he doesn't feel the need to move just because most of the other books have dropped to -4.5. "We do better with the Patriots on our Super Bowl futures, so we're okay with being heavier on the Eagles right now," he said. He also said he believes the number will go back up as Patriots money eventually shows itself in town.

                  If looking to bet the Patriots, why would you bet it now? You see the number dropping. Maybe it goes to -3.5. Maybe it goes all the way to -3. There's Patriots money out there, but the smart thing to do is wait it out and wait for the books to start feeling their nerves rattle while looking at a seven-figure Eagles risk every day on their bookmaking screen.

                  "This kind of reminds me of the Mayweather-McGregor fight, staring at large risk and waiting for the favorite money to show up," said Simbal.

                  The better value for eventual Patriots bettors is to watch the Patriots money-line keep dropping. All the small money will be on the Eagles getting plus-money where 9-to-5 odds multiplies fast. Large Pats money is definitely waiting. However, it's not all small money playing the Eagles money-line.

                  Large money came on the Eagles money-line with $500,000 wagered on Philly at the South Point Thursday between four different numbers -- +185, +180, +175 and +170. The South Point and Boyd Gaming properties have the lowest Patriots money-line at -180/+160. The best Eagles money-line is at Caesars Palace at +180.

                  Boyd Gaming's Scucci has also been flirting with the high total of 49 a few times and each time he goes, he gets to his desired threshold he goes back to 48.5.

                  Update - Thursday, Jan. 25, 2018 - 5:25 p.m. ET


                  The shock waves from Wednesday's multi-million dollar Eagles (+5.5) wager at MGM Resorts were still buzzing Thursday afternoon at every Las Vegas sports book on both sides of the counter. And in unrelated moves, two other books, the Boyd Gaming locals chain and the Westgate SuperBook, dropped their numbers from Patriots -5 to -4.5.

                  For SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay, his line adjustment wasn't because of a big wager or even a culmination of heavy cash building on the Eagles.

                  "We just felt -4.5 was a better number for us right now," he said. "It was a preemptive move for us because we believe we're going to see more Eagles money, especially when we get to the final weekend where we expect the majority of the visitors to be taking the points."

                  Kornegay said he and his crew talked to several people whose opinion they respect and the Eagles were getting lots of love from them. He said as of Thursday afternoon, only 52 percent of his overall cash on the game is on the Eagles. Also, 5 is a dead number affording him to move the number without being pushed by cash. If it was a key number like -3, moving so quick to -2.5 wouldn't have been an option for him to even consider. Kornegay is simply trying to get to the right number sooner than later.

                  MGM Resorts has so much Eagles padding in their kitty that they can give bargain prices in an attempt to get all the Patriots action to lessen risk. On Thursday afternoon, they dropped the Patriots from -4.5-flat to -4.5 EVEN, which makes them the cheapest Patriots number in the state. Staring at a few million dollars of Eagles risk on the computer screen gives quite the motivation for offering Patriots discounts. On the same note, MGM's 10 books have the lowest money-line price on the Patriots at -185. The best money-line price on the Eagles is at Caesars Palace offering +180.

                  Now that we've seen -4.5, when will we see -4? At one chain of books it doesn't look like it'll happen anytime soon.

                  William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada, along with its popular phone wagering, give a diverse and unique look at what all sectors of northern and southern Nevada are thinking with their wagers. Surprisingly, after three full days of wagering they've seen 69 percent of all the cash taken on the point spread coming on the Patriots, who they have favored by 5-points. Only 51 percent of the tickets written are slanted to the Eagles.

                  William Hill Super Bowl 52 Prop Sheet

                  William Hill opened its props on Thursday afternoon claiming to have 948 ways to be the Super Bowl. Let's just call it 300-plus props covering 14 pages, one page of which has dozens of props involving the Vegas Golden Knights Feb. 4 game at the Washington Capitals. Which will be more? Vegas penalties (+130) or Patriots penalties (-150). There's also more local flavor with their props. Which will be more? UNLV's points at Boise State on Feb. 3 or Rob Gronkowski's receiving yards (-4.5).

                  The Westgate SuperBook is looking to release 300-plus of their world famous Super Bowl props at 8:00 p.m. ET (5:00 p.m. PT) on Thursday. Kornegay said his crew was still loading the props into the system, but the numbers are all set.

                  Update - Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018 - 8:15 p.m. ET

                  The first sonic boom Super Bowl bet heard across Las Vegas took place Wednesday afternoon at MGM Resorts where VP of sports book operations Jay Rood confirmed a multi-million dollar wager was placed on the Eagles at +5.5 causing the chain of 10 books on the Las Vegas strip to bypass -5 altogether and go straight to Patriots -4.5, which is the lowest number in town.

                  The massive wager give MGM books lots of wiggle room this early to balance things out in the Super Bowl betting season and it's also a signal that a record setting handle could be had in Nevada for the third straight Super Bowl.

                  Update - Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018 - 5:45 p.m. ET

                  A couple of Las Vegas sports books made a move on the Super Bowl 52 line from Patriots -5.5 down to -5 as Eagles money has been showing, a move more justified due to respected off-shore book 5Dimes.eu dropping to -4.5 on Tuesday night. The South Point dropped to -5 on Wednesday morning, and CG Technology and Caesars Palace went to -5 on Wednesday afternoon.

                  Limits are higher now and it takes a lot to move the number, but a popular bookmaking goal is also to get to the right number as soon as possible before the millions in wagers is dropped down. The Westgate Las SuperBook, Boyd Gaming, Wynn Resorts and Stratosphere are all at -5.5 and MGM Resorts is at -5.5 EVEN showing they're long at +5.5 at -110 and -115 with Philly, but they don't want to get off that number anytime soon.

                  Wynn Resorts sports book director John Avello opened the Patriots -6.5, the highest number in town and found immediate takers.

                  "That was my number," Avello said Wednesday afternoon. "We opened it really early like when the NFC Championship game was still in the third quarter and we immediately got sharp action with several five-figure wagers. They all made multiple wagers and then I went to -6.5 (-105) and we took another couple bets taking the Eagles, around $20,000 each before going to -5.5."

                  When Avello was asked if his plan was to get to the right number quickly or just let the money push him, he laughed and said "the only right number is the number after the result is posted."

                  There's lots of different strategies appled early in the bookmaking game. Eventually, they'll all be pushed to the same number, but Avello believes he'll see more of what he's been seeing already.

                  "People always love to bet the underdog in the Super Bowl, and there's already lots of people believing the Eagles can win after seeing them win impressively last week," said Avello. "But my concern with the Eagles and why I opened high with the Patriots is the quarterback. Nick Foles is no rookie and he's been around and had some success in the NFL, but this is an entirely new stage for him."

                  There's definitely some validity to Avello being skeptical of Nick Foles beating Tom Brady as it relates to experience on the biggest stage.

                  Up north in Reno, where the betting patterns are a little different from Las Vegas, the Atlantis sports book erased the final -6 in the state on Tuesday evening and are currently at -5.5.

                  The best money-line in town if looking for the Eagles is offered at Wynn Resorts at +190 and the cheapest price on the Patriots is -200 at the Westgate, Station Casinos and Golden Nugget.

                  "We're getting some nibbles at +190, but we're fine for now," Avello said of his city-best money-line price.

                  If liking the Eagles to win, you may want to get to the Wynn and get some of that +190 before liability forces a move. If looking to bet the Patriots to win straight up, no points, you may want to hold off a while and wait for it to drop more.

                  I'll have more Super Bowl updates from Las Vegas Thursday.

                  Update - Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2018 - 3:30 p.m. ET

                  It's just the beginning of two weeks of Super Bowl hype in Las Vegas, but each day is a blast with something happening around town and I'm here to share some daily tidbits from sports books across the state. The main questions I'll be asking along the way is where the number is going, will a state record for win and handle happen, who will the books eventually be rooting for and who do they want to be rooting for. And then of course, a bunch of other odd Super Bowl nuggets along the way.

                  After almost two days of wagering, Las Vegas books are sitting steady between the Patriots being -5.5 to -5 after a few opened -6 (South Point) and -6.5 (Wynn Resorts) on Sunday. The largest number currently in the state is up north at Marc Nelson's Atlantis sports book where he's still dealing Patriots -6 -105. However, Nelson gave indication he would be dropping the number soon as he's almost hit his threshold of desired risk at this early juncture. South Point sports book director Chris Andrews likes where he's at right now.

                  "It's nice having dead numbers on the game," said Andrews, who is now at -5.5. "We opened -6 and I don't think we'll get there again, but I also don't think we'll get down to -4. We're a little high on the plus side (Eagles) right now."

                  The total is offering bettors plenty to choose from, kind of like a buffet or sorts, something for everyone. If looking to bet Under, the Stratosphere, Station Casinos, William Hill and Boyd Gaming are all set high at 48.5 while the low of 47.5 is at the Westgate SuperBook, CG Technology and MGM Resorts. The four chain of books using 48.5 are all popular local books with the majority of their clients betting Over, so with it being the biggest game of the year they're just prepping for what they expect down the road and are willing to bank larger Under money now for the long haul.

                  The South Point was sitting right in the middle at 48 with their total, but Andrews raised it to 48.5 during our conversation."It's been all Over so far, and the parlay build-up on both sides to the Over is getting larger by the minute," he said.

                  Nevada comes off a Super Bowl record $138.5 million handled last season in the Patriots 34-28 overtime win against the Falcons, the second year in a row a state record was set. The books won $10.9 million (7.9 percent) on the game despite the popular favorite (-3) and Over (57) cashing, as well as the all-way, four-way teaser.

                  The massive amount of props offered around town gave the books so many more ways to win away from just the side and total. A favorite and Over and all-way teaser for any regular isolated game on Sunday or Monday night is a certain huge loss for the books, but bettors spread their allotted bankrolls out with all the fun Super Bowl props which helps the books absorb a public beat down easier.

                  Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay is the pioneer for props as we know it in Las Vegas and he offers over 300 props with some involving other sports happening Super Bowl weekend. He says that 60 percent of his overall Super Bowl wagers come from the props, which is the most weighted in the state where most books are now at around 60 percent of overall action still coming on the side and total. By the way, Kornegay says his props will open Thursday night at 5:00 p.m. PT and the must-have prop booklet of sheets stapled together will be available Friday afternoon.

                  Another reason for Nevada Super Bowl handle setting a record the past two seasons is because almost every book offers in-progress wagering and has phone wagering which keeps the money churning through despite the game starting.

                  The all-time Nevada record for Super Bowl win happened after the 2014 season when the Seahawks buried the Broncos, 43-8, at a chilly MetLife Stadium. The state wrote a then record $119.4 million and won $19.6 million (16.5 percent hold). A good old fashion blowout is good for business and Denver (-2.5) was a popular wager which translated the same way on props.

                  SUPER BOWL FUTURE RISK


                  "We would have liked the Vikings to make it because they were our biggest win, but our futures are looking good," said Andrews. "We win a good amount to both teams."

                  EARLY PROP ACTION

                  The South Point posted 12 props on Sunday night and immediately got action on a couple of them. "One guy came in and laid $14,000 on NO SAFETY at -700 and then he laid $15,000 on NO OVERTIME at -750. We're at -900 on each now," said Andrews. The first overtime in Super Bowl history happened last season and the safety has made a few appearances in recent years.

                  SUPER BOWL TRENDS

                  The favorites always seemed to win and cover going 20-10-1 against the spread in the first 31 Super Bowls. The 1980s were brutal blowouts with the AFC taking a beating, but something happened when the Broncos finally won a Super Bowl as 11-point underdogs against the Packers after the 1998 season. It changed the tide.

                  Underdogs have now gone 12-4 ATS in the last 16 Super Bowls, starting with the Patriots 20-17 win against the Rams as 14-point dogs after the 2002 season. The underdog has won seven of the past 10 Super Bowls outright, including two wins by the Giants over the Patriots.

                  Two of the past three Super Bowls have seen all-way teasers cash -- both sides, both totals. We can count on good games in the Super Bowl now and the NFL spread is the most sound rating of any sport which means getting six-points to the side and total offers nice value on a two-teamer. The Patriots six-point overtime win last season was their largest margin of victory in five Super Bowl wins engineered by Brady and Bill Belichick.

                  ROB GRONKOWSKI WORTH?


                  The Jaguars had the Patriots exactly where they wanted them in Sunday's AFC Championship and got a bonus when Tom Brady's go-to tight-end got a concussion and missed the second half. That's Brady's crutch, and it if weren't for some horrendous fourth-quarter play-calling and clock management, we'd be talking about the Jags right now in their first Super Bowl. With two weeks before game time, we all expect Gronkowski to play in the Super Bowl, but his worth is up to 1.5-points. If for whatever reason he can't play there will be rapid adjustments on the number all over the state.

                  SOUTH POINT SUPER BOWL PARTIES

                  The South Point has two massive parties planned upstairs in their banquet area, one in their Showroom and then they have hundreds of seats inside their sports book and lounge. They also have two extra-large bars seating up to a hundred people each and another lounge by the race book that can accommodate another 200 partiers. There's a little something for everyone and it's a great place to hang out for a few hours for the other amenities where owner Michael Gaughan doesn't gouge his guests. He gives his customers cheap beer prices and great food on the cheap in all of his restaurants.

                  Something to also keep an eye out for is who is writing your bet ticket when going to the counter. It's not unusual to see the owner, Michael Gaughan himself punching tickets, or his sons, one of which is NASCAR driver Brendan Gaughan who will be driving in the Daytona 500 again this season. With all the parties located around the casino and bet stations placed within, the sports book labor gets a little thin so it's all hands on deck.
                  Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                  Comment


                  • One week out from Super Bowl LII, it's all Eagles action so far
                    Patrick Everson

                    Super Bowl LII has been bet into for almost a week now, and yet the line still hasn’t stabilized, continuing to trend downward at several shops. Patrick Everson checks in on the action and line movement, with insights from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas, and Scott Kaminsky, director of offshore sportsbook TheGreek.com.

                    Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots – Open: -6.5; Move: -6: Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

                    New England has the extensive Super Bowl resume, complete with an overflowing trophy case. But the Patriots’ performance in the AFC title game and the uncertain status of Rob Gronkowski aren’t an attractive combination to bettors. New England (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) rallied to beat Jacksonville 24-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite.

                    Meanwhile, bettors can’t seem to help themselves to enough of Philadelphia after its blowout victory in the NFC final. The Eagles (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) hammered Minnesota 38-7 as a 3-point home underdog, making believers of customers at Nevada and offshore books.

                    “It’s been all Eagles up to this point,” Avello said of action at the Wynn, which on Friday night dropped the Patriots from -5 to -4.5. “They even took 4.5 last night for a good amount. Normally, I’d be at 4, if the game was this Sunday. But since we’ve got a whole week to go, I’m gonna wait and see if we get some takers on the Patriots.”

                    Like many other shops, the Wynn is seeing plenty of Philly action on the moneyline, which opened New England -230/Philadelphia +195. Those numbers have dipped to -180/+160. Avello says there’s an X-factor to turning around the current betting trends – Gronkowski’s status.

                    “If Gronkowski gets announced that he’s playing, which I think is gonna happen, that’ll maybe stabilize the line or even push it up a little bit,” he said.

                    TheGreek.com opened New England -5.5, dipped to -5 on Wednesday, then hit -4.5 (-115) on Saturday.

                    “We’ve accumulated ‘dog money along the way,” Kaminsky said, while noting action has slowed a bit in the calm before the storm. “The sharps are probably done for now. We’re not seeing much action and probably won’t until next weekend.”

                    Wynn Las Vegas opened the total at 47, and after a quick burst to 48, that number hasn’t moved since late last Sunday.

                    “The total is kind of a dead issue. It won’t be as we get closer to the game, but as of now, it’s drawing the least interest of all the options, including the props,” Avello said.
                    Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                    Comment


                    • Patriots aren't much for blowouts when it comes to the Big Game
                      Joe Fortenbaugh

                      By our current count, at least three wagers of $500,000 or more have already been placed in Las Vegas for next Sunday’s Super Bowl LII showdown between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.

                      Those wagers will be discussed in more detail below, but for now, all you need to know is that each bet was placed on Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles, which is one of the primary reasons as to why the opening pointspread of Patriots -5.5 has already been adjusted to as low as Patriots -4.

                      But perhaps more important than why the pointspread is moving is the why behind the decision to support the Eagles. Granted, the rationale supporting such a wager is multi-faceted, but at least one of those factors pertains to the following information:

                      Tom Brady + Bill Belichick in the Super Bowl =

                      [2002] New England (+14/53) vs. St. Louis: Patriots 20, Rams 17
                      [2003] New England (-7/38) vs. Carolina: Patriots 32, Panthers 29
                      [2004] New England (-7/47) vs. Philadelphia: Patriots 24, Eagles 21
                      [2008] New England (-12.5/54.5) vs. New York: Giants 17, Patriots 14
                      [2012] New England (-3/53) vs. New York: Giants 21, Patriots 17
                      [2015] New England (-1/47) vs. Seattle: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
                      [2017] New England (-3/57) vs. Atlanta: Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)

                      Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota will mark the eighth time in which a Super Bowl featured Bill Belichick as the head coach of the Patriots and Tom Brady as the quarterback of the Patriots. But here’s where things get interesting: in those previous seven Super Bowl appearances, the average margin of victory was just 3.7 points, with only one game being decided by more than four points.

                      That one game in question was last year’s 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons.

                      Four games decided by three points, two matchups determined by four points and one overtime thriller that landed on six points.

                      Brady + Belichick may be the NFL’s ultimate dynasty, but the Hall of Fame tandem doesn’t annihilate the opposition when the Vince Lombardi Trophy is on the line. Further, the Brady + Belichick duo is a lifetime 5-2 straight up and 3-4 against the spread in the Super Bowl, with the Under cashing in four of those seven showdowns.

                      While it’s certainly not the primary reason as to why we’ve seen so much Eagles money show up in Vegas through the first week of Super Bowl wagering, Brady and Belichick’s Super Bowl history has no doubt played at least a small role in the movement from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.

                      Now comes the fun part: will big-time Patriots money begin to show in Vegas between now and kickoff, or will the Philly cash continue to pour in during this season’s final week of professional football wagering?

                      With 20 weeks in the books

                      Home teams ATS: 133-125-8
                      Favorites ATS: 133-122-8
                      Home underdogs ATS: 48-50-4
                      Over/Under: 124-142

                      Trend of the Week

                      In the National Football League’s previous 51 Super Bowls, the team that won the game just so happened to also cover the pointspread 43 times.

                      Please allow me to repeat myself: the straight-up winner of the Super Bowl is 43-6-2 ATS.

                      So, who do you guys have winning on Sunday?

                      Super Bowl action report

                      Most outlets, both in Vegas and offshore, opened with the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5 points. After one week of wagering, we now see New England as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 48.

                      As of Sunday morning, approximately 58 percent of the tickets written were in support of Philadelphia, while 62 percent of the tickets written on the total were backing the Over.

                      In regards to the move from New England -5.5 to New England -4, here’s what we know:

                      1. Early this past week, MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood told our friend Gill Alexander that his property took a “multi-million-dollar bet” on the Philadelphia Eagles. Rood declined to name the bettor or share whether it was a moneyline bet on the Eagles or a wager on the Eagles plus the points, but Rood did move his line from Patriots -5.5 to Patriots -4.5 immediately after booking said wager.

                      2. South Point director of race and sports Chris Andrews told us on Episode 70 of The Sharp 600 that he booked a $500,000 moneyline wager on the Philadelphia Eagles this past week.

                      3. Matthew Holt, the COO at CG Analytics and vice president of business development for CG Technology, tweeted Friday, “We took a 700K bet on Eagles moneyline today and now have well into seven-figure liability on Eagles moneyline as of now.”

                      At the moment, it appears as if we’re all waiting to see whether or not a significant amount of New England money shows up at the books.

                      Muffed Punt Picks: Super Bowl, Part I

                      Season: 24-37-2
                      Last week: 0-2


                      While my official Super Bowl side, total and prop selections will be released in next week’s edition of “The Muffed Punt,” here is an early nugget I have been studying:

                      First quarter UNDER: In seven Super Bowl appearances together, the Tom Brady + Bill Belichick connection has combined to score a grand total of ZERO points during the first quarter.

                      Yup, Brady and Belichick have been held scoreless during the first quarter in every single Super Bowl they have appeared in together. Further, in those aforementioned seven Super Bowls, a grand total of just 15 points has been scored during the first quarter.

                      Quote of the Week

                      “That’s the biggest gap in sports, the difference between the winner and the loser of the Super Bowl.” -- John Madden
                      Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

                      Comment


                      • Super Bowl LII's biggest betting mismatches: Eagles vs. Patriots
                        Monty Andrews

                        Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots (-4.5, 48)

                        It's the biggest game of the NFL season, as the New England Patriots seek their second straight title - and sixth all-time - against a Philadelphia Eagles team that is looking for its first Super Bowl championship. The Patriots come into this year's title contest at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis as modest favorites, thanks to a Tom Brady-led offense that led the league in total offense. The Eagles will look to quash New England's quest at a repeat with a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL.

                        Eagles' solid rush attack vs. Patriots' run D problems

                        There weren't many things the Eagles didn't do well this season, thriving on a dynamic offense led by quarterback Carson Wentz and making opposing teams suffer thanks to a relentless defense. And that's not all; the Eagles were one of the top rushing teams in the league, especially after acquiring Jay Ajayi in a mid-season trade with the Miami Dolphins. And in what is expected to be a highly competitive game, Philadelphia should be able to exploit a New England rush attack that has struggled to keep teams at bay.

                        The Eagles' running game didn't generate much buzz throughout the season, mostly because Wentz was so spectacular prior to his season-ending knee injury. But Philadelphia might not be where it is without the success of its rush attack, which produced the third-most yards during the regular season (2,115). And while the Eagles struggled with fumbles - committing 11 during the regular season and another three in the playoffs - this is a run game that can move the football against just about any team in the league.

                        That doesn't bode well at all for a Patriots defense that held opponents to the fourth-lowest run rate in the league (38.0 percent), but allowed opposing rushers to gain a whopping 4.6 yards per carry; only the Los Angeles Chargers were more generous (4.9 YPC). And while New England limited Jacksonville to 101 yards on 32 carries in the AFC Championship, things might be different on a neutral field against an Eagles team whose 4.3 YPC average during the season ranked seventh in the NFL.

                        Eagles' interception immunity vs. Patriots' secondary struggles

                        The loss of Wentz - to an injury revealed last week to be even more severe than first thought - was supposed to be the end of the Eagles' title chances. But Nick Foles has emerged as more than capable of spearheading the Philadelphia offense. While he lacks the explosiveness of his young predecessor, Foles has done a magnificent job taking care of the football - and in that regard, the Eagles as a whole have a significant advantage over a Patriots team that didn't produce many turnovers on passing downs.

                        While Philadelphia boasted one of the lowest passing rates in football during the regular season (55.2 percent), it still led the NFL in passing touchdowns (38) and finished just outside the top 10 in yards per game through the air (240.1). Wentz, Foles and Nate Sudfeld also combined to throw just nine interceptions, sixth-fewest in the league. Foles was at his tactical best last time out, throwing three touchdowns with zero interceptions in last week's NFC Championship rout of the Minnesota Vikings.

                        Teams threw the ball more than 62 percent of the time against the Patriots, but the New England secondary didn't turn many of those passes into interceptions. The Patriots finished the regular season with 12 INTs - tied with Tennessee for 18th overall - and are the only one of the final four playoff teams without an interception in the postseason; Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Minnesota all have at least two. Look for Philadelphia to use a measured passing game to keep the football out of the hands of the Pats' defense.

                        Eagles' discipline issues vs. Patriots' paucity of penalties

                        You might see the first two items on the list and wonder why the Eagles aren't favored. Well, Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense has a lot to do with that - and there are other factors, as well. Oddsmakers aren't convinced that Foles can outduel his New England counterpart, while the Patriots' extensive playoff experience also comes into play. And if Philadelphia can't show more discipline than it did during the regular season, New England will own the kind of penalty advantage that could decide this one.

                        While it didn't cost them anything in the overall standings, the Eagles were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL in 2017, picking up the fifth-most accepted flags (124) while accruing the eighth-most accepted penalty yards (1,041). Not surprisingly, that resulted in the Eagles finishing fourth from the bottom in total penalty flag differential (minus-17), ahead of only the Seattle Seahawks, the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos - three teams that missed the postseason completely.

                        As you might have expected, the Patriots were once again one of the most disciplined teams in the NFL this past season. New England finished its 16-game campaign with exactly 100 accepted flags - eighth-fewest in the league - and its 882 accepted penalty yards also ranked eighth. And the Patriots were even better when it came to drawing flags, finishing with the league's greatest penalty yard differential (plus-313) and the second-best flag differential (plus-27).
                        Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                        • Advantage - Over
                          January 31, 2018
                          By Chris David


                          Last February we watched the ‘over’ (57) cash in Super Bowl 51 and for those of you who had the ‘under’ in that contest, please continue to accept our apologies one year later. The low side was definitely the right lean in that game and it looked like a sure thing but that was before New England pulled off the improbable 34-28 comeback victory in overtime against Atlanta.

                          It’s not the worst “Total Beat” I’ve seen but it’s up there and it was probably a good thing it was the last game of the season for some bettors.

                          Fast forward to Super Bowl 52 and the oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 47 ½ both in Las Vegas and at the Offshore sportsbooks. As we head into the final days of betting, the number has held steady and most shops are holding 48 as of Wednesday afternoon.

                          According to the latest betting trends at VegasInsider.com, the ‘over’ is receiving more attention and that shouldn’t come as a surprise since the public usually sides with the high side in the finale while the pro bettors lean low.

                          With assistance from one of the top VegasInsider.com handicappers and contributors Joe Nelson, we’ll touch on the ‘over’ in this piece and also provide you reasons to back the ‘under’ in another installment.

                          Over Trends and Angles to Watch

                          -- The Eagles went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread versus AFC opponents this season while the offense averaged 29 points per game. The ‘over’ went 2-1-1.

                          -- The Patriots went 3-1 both SU and ATS in non-conference games as well behind an offense that averaged 27 PPG.

                          -- Philadelphia only faced three playoff teams during the regular season and all of the games took place on the road. They went 2-1 in those games despite allowing 28.3 PPG. The ‘over’ went 2-0-1.

                          -- Meanwhile, New England was 3-2 against postseason clubs this season and the ‘over’ went 3-2 in those games while the offense averaged 28.6 PPG and the defense surrendered 25.2 PPG.

                          -- The Eagles didn’t play any games indoors this season but the Patriots notched a 36-20 road win over New Orleans in Week 2 at the Superdome.

                          -- The Eagles scoring defense (17.3 PPG) enters this game ranked second in the league but most of the great production was done at home (12.4 PPG) and not on the road (23.5 PPG), which has been a pattern under head coach Doug Pederson. Since he took over Philadelphia, the Birds have allowed 24.7 PPG in 16 road games and that’s led to an 11-4-1 ‘over’ mark.

                          -- The Patriots have watched the ‘over’ cash in six of their last eight playoff games and the offense has averaged 29.5 PPG during this stretch.

                          -- New England has played in nine Super Bowls all-time and the ‘over’ has gone 5-4 in those games. With Tom Brady and Bill Belichick running the show, the total results have gone 3-3 but the last two trips to the finale have gone ‘over’ the number.

                          -- This will be the third Super Bowl appearance for the Eagles, who allowed 27 and 24 points in their first two trips to the big game.

                          -- QB Nick Foles has started three postseason games in his career, all with the Eagles, and his teams have averaged 25.6 PPG.

                          -- The total on this year’s Super Bowl is hovering between 48 and 48 ½ points. The Eagles have had two totals fall in this neighborhood and the results ended in a stalemate (1-1). New England has watched the ‘over’ go 3-2 with numbers closing at 48 or 48 ½.

                          -- There has been one Super Bowl played at Minnesota, which took place in 1992 when Washington throttled Buffalo 37-24 and the ‘over’ (49) connected easily.

                          Expert Analysis – Joe Nelson

                          With a total of 57 last year’s Super Bowl win for the Patriots featured the highest Super Bowl total ever. A year later the total is currently nine points below that mark at 48 and seven of the last nine Super Bowls have featured 48 or more points scored as scoring has generally been on display on the league’s biggest stage.

                          Last week’s 24-20 win for the Patriots stayed just ‘under’ but Jaguars fans would argue they deserved another touchdown with the controversial ruling on the Myles Jack strip that was perhaps errantly whistled down by contact. There was over 700 yards in that game and Jacksonville was in New England territory before going backwards in the final series. In the past 10 Patriots playoff games the ‘over’ is 7-2-1 and this total will be lower than several of those games, many of which were outdoors in cold January conditions.

                          After allowing 128 points in the first four weeks of the season the Patriots allowed just 168 points in the final 12 weeks. Certainly some positive adjustments were made in that span but the schedule played a big role as well as the Patriots played quality teams in that first month including facing three playoff teams. In only four of the final 12 regular season games did the Patriots face a playoff team and two of those games came against a very limited Bills offense.

                          New England also caught one of the most favorable playoff paths ever facing a Titans team that was a negative scoring differential team and a Jaguars team that has been quite erratic and limited on offense as the defense hasn’t been tested against a top offense since facing Pittsburgh in Week 15. New England allowed 24 points in that game with all common sense pointing to the Patriots actually allowing 31 points in that game.

                          While New England’s defense has been erratic the offense has not been. With 458 points on the season the Patriots were the second highest scoring team in the NFL and only once all season was New England held below 20 points and barely so with a 19-14 win at Tampa Bay in October. Since a Week 9 bye week the Patriots have averaged 30.1 points per game the past 10 games with minimal variance, scoring at least 23 points in every game.

                          In the regular season Philadelphia scored just one fewer point than the Patriots and keep in mind that is with the adjustment at quarterback. While the Eagles put up 34 points in the first start for Foles they scored just 19 points combined in Week 16 and 17 with the offense struggling and with the team in a situation where they didn’t have great urgency to win given their top position in the NFC. Foles was injured much of the season and didn’t have regular practice reps all year as it isn’t surprising that he struggled in his first few games and has now found his stride.

                          Take out the final two weeks and the Eagles would have led the NFL in scoring with 31.3 points per game and so far in the playoffs the Eagles have scored 53 points against a pair of high quality defenses. Had the NFC Championship been competitive the Eagles likely would have added even more points as they didn’t score in the final 14 minutes with the game out of hand. In the divisional win over Atlanta the Eagles scored only 15 points but they missed an extra-point and settled for three field goals including an incredibly short 4th quarter kick of just 21 yards as 15 points came with solid production of 334 yards of offense. The Eagles also fumbled in field goal range on 1st down early in that game as well to keep points off the board.

                          Many expected the Eagles to be conservative in the postseason behind Nick Foles but Philadelphia has thrown 63 times in two postseason games despite outdoor January conditions in Philadelphia. Foles has delivered with nearly 78 percent completions on nearly 9.5 yards per pass attempt despite going against two of the better pass defenses in the NFL. The Patriots meanwhile allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt in the regular season to rank 25th in the NFL and over the last six weeks despite stronger numbers overall for the New England defense, the Patriots have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Foles may not be close to being in Tom Brady’s company but he compares favorably to the quartet of Tyrod Taylor, Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota, and Blake Bortles, which are the marginal quarterbacks New England has faced the last four weeks.

                          The top two yards per pass attempt defenses in the NFL were both in the conference championship games and neither is playing in the Super Bowl as Minnesota and Jacksonville both allowed just 6.0 yards per pass attempt on the season. The Patriots threw for 298 yards on nearly 70 percent completions to beat the Jaguars while Foles and the Eagles torched the Vikings with only seven incomplete passes en route to a 352 passing yards game on 10.7 yards per attempt. However you grade the Philadelphia and New England pass defenses they likely can’t be considered as good as the units these quarterbacks faced in the conference championships and both still had great success. Brady actually had some of his biggest passing games against the top rated pass defenses he faced this season.

                          Given the comeback ability both of these teams has displayed and the general edge that the offenses can get in the NFL rulebook this is rather attainable number for an indoor game with two of the top scoring teams in the NFL. The kicking game will also get a boost with more possible attempts from longer distances in an indoor setting and both offenses could be at an advantage as these teams haven’t met since a 35-28 win for the Eagles in 2015 and there also simply is not a lot of film on Foles in this offense for a Patriots franchise known for its meticulous scouting work.
                          Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                          • Advantage - Patriots
                            February 1, 2018
                            By Kevin Rogers


                            The Patriots are seeking their sixth Super Bowl title during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, while going for back-to-back championships for the first time since 2003-2004. New England faces Philadelphia in Super Bowl LII on Sunday in Minneapolis, as the Patriots are attempting to win a Super Bowl by more than six points for the first time in franchise history.

                            We remember the epic comeback that Brady produced in last February’s 34-28 overtime triumph over the Falcons to cash as three-point favorites. Brady captured his fourth Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award by throwing for a SB record 466 yards and overcoming a 28-3 second-half deficit. Brady has racked up multi-touchdown performances in five of seven Super Bowl appearances, while the Patriots are 4-1 in those games.

                            In the regular season, the Patriots led the league in yards per game (394.2), ranked second in passing yards per game (276.1), and second in points scored (458). The defense struggled to start the season by allowing 128 points in the first four games (32 ppg), but tightened up by yielding 168 points in the next 12 contests (14 ppg) and compiling an 11-1 mark in that stretch.

                            In two playoff victories over the Jaguars and Titans, New England gave up 34 points, including one touchdown in the second half.

                            Philadelphia ranked third in the league in points scored with 457, but posted only 19 points in the final two regular season games with six of them scored on a meaningless fumble recovery returned for a touchdown against Oakland in Week 16. The Eagles posted five defensive touchdowns this season, while each of the Patriots’ 48 touchdowns came from their offense.

                            This season, the Eagles won an NFC-high 13 games, but beat only two playoff teams, the Panthers and Rams. Obviously Philadelphia racked up a pair of victories over playoff squads in the postseason over Atlanta and Minnesota, but the Eagles are hitting the road for the first time since Week 15.

                            In the last three road games, Philadelphia has allowed 24, 35, and 29 points, while yielding at least 23 points in all four opportunities as a ‘dog away from Lincoln Financial Field.

                            VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson analyzes how the Eagles benefited from big plays in the postseason, “The Eagles have caught big turnover breaks down the stretch, notably getting 14 first half points last week off turnovers in the NFC Championship including the early 50-yard interception return touchdown and another turnover late in the first half that helped turn a likely 14-10 edge into a 24-7 halftime lead. New England continues to win despite not winning the turnover battle in any of the last seven games and being -4 in net turnovers the past six games.”

                            Many people forget that the Eagles benefited from a much easier schedule than the Patriots due to a lousy 2016 finish, according to Nelson, “A lot is being made of the easy path the Patriots had to get to the Super Bowl, watching the Ravens and Chargers miss the playoffs and then seeing the Chiefs and Steelers get upset in the AFC field.”

                            “The AFC East is also deservedly criticized but the Eagles mostly built their great season numbers against lousy competition, drawing a fourth place schedule after finishing just 7-9 last season. The regular season schedule for the Eagles only wound up featuring three games against playoff teams with Philadelphia allowing over 28 points per game in those contests. New England wound up playing seven playoff teams in the regular season schedule,” Nelson notes.

                            Sixteen times in Super Bowl history prior to last season has the game been decided by seven points or less. The next year in this scenario, the Super Bowl has been decided by a double-digit margin 13 times. That bodes well for New England, as favorites are 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS in these games.

                            The Patriots have struggled historically in the Super Bowl scoring in the first quarter by not putting up a single point in the past seven tries in the opening 15 minutes. However, New England has stepped up late by posting 19 fourth quarter points against Atlanta last season and 14 points in the last 15 minutes against Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX.

                            The AFC has captured four of the past five Super Bowl titles, including each of the last three seasons (New England twice and Denver). Being the top seed in the NFC doesn’t equal Super Bowl success as only two teams since 2000 have claimed the title as the number one seed (2009 Saints and 2013 Seahawks).
                            Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                            • SB52 Late Props heating up
                              February 1, 2018


                              Eagles vs. Patriots – Down To The Wire?

                              Fans across the globe are hoping for an exciting Super Bowl that will go to the wire and with the fourth-quarter action in mind, how about checking out the huge range of wagering props on offer at Intertops.eu?

                              If it stays close, all the players on the field will be looking to book their place in the NFL history books by bagging the game’s final (and maybe decisive?) touchdown.

                              Intertops sees Rob Gronkowski as the man for this honor, currently offering 7/1 on the giant TE to grab the glory. Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis follow close behind, with Gronk’s Eagles counterpart Zach Ertz leading the way for Philly at 10/1.

                              Jay Ajayi and Alshon Jeffery are also hot candidates, but who knows, maybe one of the coaches will pull a surprise out of his hat and target someone completely unexpected?

                              If the most points in the game are scored in the fourth quarter, you can enjoy odds of 2/1, while the game still being level after the clock has wound down is currently priced at 17/2.

                              The most adventurous among us might be interested in predicting the game’s final score. Difficult for sure, but with odds starting at 66/1 the right hunch could leave you celebrating the end of the season on a very profitable note!

                              Last Touchdown Scorer
                              Rob Gronkowski 7/1
                              Brandin Cooks 8/1
                              Dion Lewis 17/2
                              Zach Ertz 10/1
                              Jay Ajayi 11/1
                              Alshon Jeffrey 11/1
                              Danny Amendola 12/1
                              LeGarrette Blount 12/1
                              Nelson Agholor 14/1

                              Highest Scoring Quarter

                              Second 3/2
                              Fourth 2/1
                              Third 4/1
                              First 9/2

                              Team to score first in the fourth quarter
                              New England Patriots 4/5
                              Philadelphia Eagles 19/20

                              Last Scoring Play

                              New England TD 9/5
                              New England FG 11/4
                              Philadelphia TD 3/1
                              Philadelphia FG 13/4
                              New England Safety 50/1
                              Philadelphia Safety 50/1

                              Team to score last
                              New England Patriots 4/5
                              Philadelphia Eagles 19/20

                              Will the Game go to Overtime?
                              No 1/20
                              Yes 71/2

                              Exact Score Betting
                              New England to win 24-21 66/1
                              Philadelphia to win 27-17 75/1
                              Philadelphia to win 30-28 90/1
                              New England to win 20-7 125/1
                              New England to win 35-28 150/1
                              Philadelphia to win 19-17 250/1
                              Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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                              • SB LII Notebook: Pats' Gronkowski limited in practice
                                January 31, 2018


                                BLOOMINGTON, Minn. -- The New England Patriots had their first practice of the week in Minnesota on Wednesday in preparation for Sunday's Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles, and tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited as he tries to recover from a concussion. Cornerback Malcolm Butler, who had an illness earlier in the week, also practiced on a limited basis.

                                "Feeling really good," Butler said later Wednesday.

                                The practice at the Minnesota Vikings' facility was a full-padded practice, the only one New England will have this week. The two-hour long practice also saw defensive end Deatrich Wise (concussion) and safety Brandon King (knee) limited.

                                Patriots coach Bill Belichick confirmed that Gronkowski still hasn't been fully cleared in the concussion protocol. Safety Devin McCourty said Gronkowski looked good during practice.

                                "Gronk's on that Tom Brady type of plan," McCourty said. "Whenever he's out there, he looks great. I would say he looked awesome, but I don't know many times Gronk looks bad. He doesn't have many bad days."

                                Brady practiced while wearing only black tape on his injured throwing hand. He had his familiar black glove on later while talking to reporters.

                                Pederson turns 50

                                Eagles head coach Doug Pederson celebrated a special birthday Wednesday as he turned 50 years old. One of the items on his birthday agenda was overseeing Philadelphia's first practice of the week.

                                The Eagles' team Twitter account shared a video wishing their coach a happy birthday and alluding to his love of ice cream. Several of Pederson's players were asked Wednesday what they would get their head coach for his 50th birthday -- besides a Super Bowl win on Sunday, of course.

                                "Probably a cane, just to make him old," said right tackle Lane Johnson.

                                Fletcher Cox had perhaps the best gift idea for his coach: "A hug."

                                Solder's inspiration

                                Patriots left tackle Nate Solder is preparing for Sunday's game, but his thoughts don't stray far from his 2-year-old son, Hudson. Hudson was diagnosed with cancer in 2015 when he was just three months old.

                                Nate, who survived testicular cancer, is thankful to be playing in his fourth Super Bowl knowing what's most important to him.

                                "It's put so many things in perspective," Solder said. "It's reoriented my priorities with my family being right at the top of those things. I think it does put things into perspective, but you don't not appreciate what you have and the opportunities you're given, so I'm so thankful for everything."

                                Solder credited his wife and family in being able to go through the process together.

                                "People have given me credit for being strong, but I don't feel strong at all," Solder said. "I feel like I'm just doing what God's told me to do and he's the one that carries me through it."

                                Favre to meet with Eagles on Saturday

                                Pederson confirmed on Wednesday that Hall of Fame and Super Bowl-winning quarterback Brett Favre, Pederson's former teammate in Green Bay, will address the Eagles at Saturday morning's team meeting.

                                Like Favre during his career, Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles has been described at times as a gunslinger. Foles said Wednesday that he grew up watching Favre, who first played in the NFL when Foles was just 2 years old.

                                "He's one of the greatest to ever play the game," Foles said of Favre. "Any time you have an opportunity to listen to someone like him speak, it's huge. So I can't wait to listen to what wisdom and knowledge he gives us. I know everyone on our team will be excited to hear him speak."

                                Brady hopes for another keepsake

                                Brady's jersey was infamously stolen after last year's Super Bowl win. He plans to keep a close eye on this year's jersey, as long as the Patriots win.

                                "I'm taking it with me, man," Brady joked. "If we lose, I'm throwing it in the garbage. If I win, I'm taking it."

                                Shop 'til they drop

                                During Super Bowl week, both the Eagles and Patriots are staying in hotels connected to the **** of America, the largest **** in the United States. Located in the Minneapolis suburb of Bloomington -- and on the site of the Minnesota Vikings' first home, Metropolitan Stadium -- the **** of America is also the site of both teams' media appearances.

                                That's given players from both sides some options for what to do in their down time in chilly Minnesota. Perhaps not surprisingly, one of the popular activities has included shopping, as **** of America has more than 500 stores located inside.

                                Right tackle Lane Johnson showed off one of his purchases from **** of America on Wednesday: a new pair of Air Jordan shoes.

                                "They look pretty cool to me, so I just got them," Johnson said.
                                Remember the 3 G's Gambling, Golf, Girls not in any particular order.....

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