The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Moves - Championships
January 19, 2018

"Did you hear Tom Brady hurt his throwing hand in practice?"

That's the chatter around sports books all across Nevada the past few days as the weekend pushes us into Championship Sunday.

Is Brady 100 percent? How did he practice Friday? Did he practice Friday?

The New England Patriots starting quarterback is kind of important to the point-spread, which has dropped from being as high as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars before the injury down to -7.5 shortly after the injury became known.

Bookmakers want to know more information to protect against sharp info. Bettors are wondering when they should jump in on the Jaguars before some really bad news surfaces. Quite a few have thrown down against the Patriots, a team they're usually siding with. The Patriots have covered 10 of their last 11 games.

The uncertainty of Brady's injury alone is worth 1.5-points of safety speculation. He's almost certain to play Sunday, but maybe at only 85 percent with accuracy and grip possibly being affected. He's worn a glove on his throwing hand while not participating in Thursday's practice and also while being on the field during the start of Friday's practice.

It doesn't hurt to reference what the line would be if Patriots back-up QB Brian Hoyer was starting. Hoyer's only playoff start saw him throw four interceptions in a 30-0 loss when he was the signal caller for the Houston Texans in the 2015 postseason.

"Wow, if Hoyer's starting, I'd be thinking Patriots -2.5, maybe -2.5 EVEN," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal.

Talk of no Brady is a bit extreme and the Las Vegas books expect him to play. But the perceptions has certainly changed some betting patterns.

"They took +9 with the Jags before the injury, a sharp guy, so we went to -8.5," Simbal said Friday afternoon.

"Then we got some more play on the Jags after the injury news on Thursday when he didn't practice. We didn't wait long and went to -7.5 and that's where the bulk of the action has been."

Simbal noted that no large action is laying the Patriots, but the smaller money has been on them to even things out.

"The big differnce here making us need the Patriots right now is a lot of money-line wagers on the Jags," said Simbal, who opened the Jaguars +350 and now it's -335/+275.

"Even with a healthy Brady, the Jaguars top-ranked pass defense with it's pass rush (55 sacks) is the same kind of formula teams like the Jets in the past with Rex Ryan, and the Ravens and Broncos have shown to give Brady problems."

Simbal says the best Super Bowl for Las Vegas from all business aspects in all departments is the Patriots and Vikings, but he wouldn't mind the Jaguars getting there for his book.

"A Jacksonville win wouldn't be all bad for us, though," he said. "They were the least bet team in our Super Bowl futures coming into the season and although we have a few tickets out there at 100-to-1 odds, we're close to winning seven-figures with them if they do win the Super Bowl."

Because of the Patriots being over a TD favorite, naturally, they're a favorite with teaser bettors getting +6, +6.5 or +7 on the exotic wager paired with one or more other options.

"The Patriots are the biggest risk on the teasers this week," Simbal said. "It's the main link tied into both sides of the other game and both sides of the totals."

In the late game, the Eagles are hosting the NFC Championship as the No. 1 seed, but oddly, the Vikings are three-point road favorites.

The last time the road team was favored at a No. 1 seed in the championship round was the Patriots at Denver (+3) two seasons ago with Von Miller and the Broncos constantly pressuring Brady and winning 20-18. The No. 1 seeds are 7-0 straight-up in their last seven conference championship games.

As of Friday, the sharps are taking the perceived value with the Birds, but the public is laying it with the Vikings.

"Most of our sharp action comes across on the phones and we have two-times the action there taking the Eagles," said Simbal, "but over-the-counter wagers, which are mostly smaller wagers from fans, are on the Vikings and have been three-times more than the Eagles."

At one point in the season, before starting QB Carson Wentz was lost for the season, the Eagles were the NFC's highest rated team. There was an immediate 4.5-point adjustment made when Philly turned to back-up Nick Foles.

After Foles looked awful against Oakland and Dallas to close the season out, the Eagles rating dropped even more (-4.5) heading into the playoffs on an 0-3 run against the spread.

"I think the start of the Eagles being underrated here is when the Falcons were overrated last week," said Simbal. "And let's be honest about the Vikings, they really lost last week and had trouble with the Saints pass rush while blowing a 17-0 halftime lead at home, and the Eagles front seven is better."

Foles was a magnificent field manager in the 15-10 win against the Falcons, but there was no bump up in the Eagles rating. It's like the Falcons game never happened or answered some questions about Foles, who has now practiced with the Eagles first-string offense the past six weeks.

Last season in this round saw both favorites win and cover, easily, with the 'over' happening in both. It was a very public day.

Enjoy the games and be sure to check back daily for Super Bowl updates from Las Vegas sports books over the next two weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

Brady stays mum on condition of hand
January 19, 2018

Tom Brady wore red gloves to the podium on Friday but the New England Patriots quarterback was not interested in talking about his injured right hand -- or much of anything else.

When asked how confident he is in playing in Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars, Brady said: "We'll see."

Brady, who practiced on a limited basis Friday and was listed as questionable, also offered a short answer when asked about the nature of the injury and repeated the same line of "I'm not talking about it" in regard to if he threw footballs during practice.

The injury occurred during Wednesday's practice when Brady jammed his throwing hand after a teammate accidentally ran into him, according to the Boston Herald. X-rays showed no structural damage.

Multiple media outlets reported that the injury is to Brady's thumb. The NFL Network reported that Brady's thumb was gushing blood and stitches were required to close the gash, but a source told the station that the quarterback was "zinging it pretty good" during Friday's practice.

The tight-lipped Brady was spotted on the field at the start of Friday's practice wearing red gloves on both hands. The 40-year-old also was at practice on Thursday but did not participate because of the right hand injury he sustained on Wednesday.

Like Brady, coach Bill Belichick wasn't too forthcoming in regard to the status of quarterback in his Friday morning press conference.

Belichick repeatedly told reporters that the Patriots are "going to get ready for Jacksonville" and was rather vague when specific questions regarding Brady's injury were posed.

For instance, when asked how Brady's status complicates the game plan, Belichick said: "I don't know." A follow-up question was answered by Belichick with a similar response.

"I don't know. We'll see," he said.

Cornerback Malcolm Butler, who made the game-clinching interception at the goal line in Super Bowl XLIX against Seattle, told reporters that Brady looked good in practice.

"Tom's a big boy. He'll be there (Sunday)," Butler said, per the Providence Journal. "He looked pretty good to me. Throwing pretty good. Laughing and joking like he always does."

Wide receiver Danny Amendola, who had 11 receptions in last weekend's 35-14 drubbing of Tennessee, echoed the sentiments of Butler.

"He looked good. Like Tom Brady," Amendola said.

Added running back Dion Lewis: "From what I've seen it was a normal day -- for us as a team and him."

Brady reportedly took all the snaps at Friday's practice out of the shotgun to help avoid aggravating the thumb injury, NBC Sports Boston reported.

New England has won five Super Bowl titles with Brady as starter. He won his fourth Super Bowl MVP award last season, rallying the Patriots from a 25-point second-half deficit in a 34-28 overtime win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Brady posted his 26th postseason victory last week, recorded his 13th 300-yard postseason passing game -- extending his NFL record for both -- and also broke a tie with Joe Montana to become the all-time leader with three touchdown passes in 10 playoff games.

Journeyman Brian Hoyer, signed to a three-year contract on Nov. 1 after he was released by the San Francisco 49ers, is Brady's backup.

Hoyer, 32, served as Brady's backup from 2009 to 2011 before making stops with the Pittsburgh Steelers (2012), Arizona Cardinals (2012), Cleveland Browns (2013-14), Houston Texans (2015), Chicago Bears (2016) and 49ers (2017).

New England had four other players listed as questionable: Defensive lineman Alan Branch (knee), running backs Rex Burkhead (knee) and Mike Gillislee (knee) and offensive lineman LaAdrian Waddle. All practiced on a limited basis Friday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Patriots' Brady questionable for Sunday's game
January 19, 2018

Tom Brady wore red gloves to the podium on Friday but the New England Patriots quarterback was not interested in talking about his injured right hand -- or much of anything else.

When asked how confident he is in playing in Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars, Brady said: "We'll see."

Brady, who practiced on a limited basis Friday and was listed as questionable, also offered a short answer when asked about the nature of the injury and repeated the same line of "I'm not talking about it" in regard to if he threw footballs during practice.

The injury occurred during Wednesday's practice when Brady jammed his throwing hand after a teammate accidentally ran into him, according to the Boston Herald. X-rays showed no structural damage.

Multiple media outlets reported that the injury is to Brady's thumb. The NFL Network reported that Brady's thumb was gushing blood and stitches were required to close the gash, but a source told the network that the quarterback was "zinging it pretty good" during Friday's practice.

Journeyman Brian Hoyer is Brady's backup.

New England had four other players listed as questionable: Defensive lineman Alan Branch (knee), running backs Rex Burkhead (knee) and Mike Gillislee (knee) and offensive lineman LaAdrian Waddle.

--Jacksonville Jaguars safety Tashaun Gipson was listed as questionable for Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass.

Gipson is nursing a right foot injury that he sustained in the third-seeded Jaguars' 45-42 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday.

--Jaguars defensive tackle Malik Jackson isn't buying that Brady will be hampered by his reported right hand injury.

Why? Well, Jackson recently has heard an opponent cite an injury to its main star ahead of facing the Jaguars.

"I remember (Buffalo Bills running back) LeSean McCoy said he had a high ankle sprain and came out there cutting and stuff," the 28-year-old Jackson said on Pro Football Live. McCoy was listed as day-to-day with the injury prior to Jacksonville's 10-3 win over Buffalo in the AFC wild-card game.

--The Minnesota Vikings remain optimistic that safety Andrew Sendejo will be available for Sunday's clash at the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship Game.

Sendejo remained in the league's concussion protocol despite being a full participant in Friday's practice. He was scheduled to undergo further tests Friday, but coach Mike Zimmer told reporters that he expects him to play.

Wide receiver Adam Thielen, who has been limited in practice all week by lower-back issues, was listed as questionable. Nose tackle Shamar Stephen was ruled out against the top-seeded Eagles.

--Linebacker Dannell Ellerbe was the only player listed as questionable for the Philadelphia Eagles for Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the Vikings.

Ellerbe was a limited participant in Friday's practice because of a hamstring injury. He also was listed as questionable a week ago but started for the Eagles in their divisional round win over the Atlanta Falcons.

--Dowell Loggains, fired recently as offensive coordinator by the Chicago Bears, was hired to the same position by the Miami Dolphins, reuniting with head coach Adam Gase.

The 37-year-old Loggains was quarterbacks coach for one year in Chicago under Gase and took over as offensive coordinator when Gase moved on to the Dolphins as head coach in 2016.

--New York Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson was arrested on nine charges early Friday morning in Sunrise, Fla.

Per the Broward County Sheriff's Office, Anderson is charged with resisting an officer, harming a public servant/family, eluding a law enforcement officer with sirens on, and several other driving violations that include speeding, running a red light and failing to drive in a single lane.

According to the police report obtained by NJ.com, the arresting officer said he clocked Anderson going 105 mph in a 45-mph zone. He also ran two red lights and swerved across the road.

--Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield appeared to call his shot well ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft.

With Dolphins wide receiver Kenny Stills making an Instagram appearance on Thursday, Mayfield chimed in with the following hashtag: "#GetMeToMiami."

After an initial spark over social media, Mayfield attempted to douse the flames by citing his ties with his fellow former Sooners player in Stills.

"Just so everybody knows... I commented about playing for Miami because I was talking to a former Sooner in Kenny Stills," Mayfield wrote on Twitter. "Everybody can relax, I will play anywhere that gives me a chance. I'm not picky, I will go anywhere and strive to uplift a franchise and win ball games.

--New York Giants general manager Dave Gettleman made good on his word by meeting with quarterback Eli Manning.

Gettleman promised he'd sit down with the 37-year-old Manning after being introduced as the team's new general manager. He officially was hired on Dec. 29.

"We had a great conversation and everything went well," Gettleman said, via the New York Post. The newspaper did not note the day of the meeting, although Newsday reported that it was last Friday. Gettleman did not go into specifics of what was said or if it led to any closure or decisions in regard to Manning's future with the Giants.

--Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Eli Rogers suffered a torn ACL in Sunday's season-ending loss, according to a published report.

Rogers was hurt on Pittsburgh's final drive of Sunday's 45-42 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported. The 25-year-old Rogers, who had a season-high five receptions against the Jaguars, is scheduled to become a restricted free agent in the offseason.

--Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell has come under fire for a pair of decisions he made prior to the team's AFC divisional-round loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bell skipped all but the final five minutes of the Saturday walk-through and arrived later than the deadline imposed by coach Mike Tomlin for gamedays on Sunday, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported.

Tomlin requires players and staff to be present at least two hours before kickoff.

--The NFL announced that the Oakland Raiders were in compliance with the Rooney Rule during the hiring of Jon Gruden as their head coach.

The league said it was satisfied that the Raiders and owner Mark Davis interviewed minority candidates for the position before reaching an agreement with Gruden.

The Fritz Pollard Alliance released a statement Friday, saying it "strongly disagreed" with the NFL's findings and termed the interviews of Bobby Johnson and Tee Martin as meaningless.

--Bruce Arians, who resigned on Jan. 1 as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals after five seasons, is auditioning for a new job -- as an NFL analyst on television.

The 65-year-old Arians has had interviews with FOX Sports and the NFL Network, and said he also has his eye on the job Jon Gruden left on Monday Night Football to rejoin the Oakland Raiders.

--Former quarterback Drew Bledsoe will serve as the New England Patriots' honorary captain for Sunday's AFC Championship Game against the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars.

--The NFL granted special eligibility to a record number of underclassmen, who will flood the first round with talent.

The official number of underclassmen who applied to enter the draft is 106, breaking the record of 98, set in 2014. There were 96 underclassmen eligible for the draft in 2016 and 95 last season.

In reality, though, 123 players gave up college eligibility for the 2018 NFL Draft, including 13 who earned degrees and four who didn't need special eligibility.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Conference Championship opening line report: Eagles playoff home dogs once again
Patrick Everson

“Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag.”

After an exhilarating end to the NFL divisional playoff round, it’s on to the conference championship games, with Super Bowl berths on the line. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines and early movement, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-8)

Jacksonville is the surprise guest of the four still around for this playoff party, finally getting a boost from its often inept offense. The third-seeded Jaguars (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS) forced two turnovers that led to 14 points Sunday at No. 2 Pittsburgh, but also piled up 31 more points of their own volition on the way to a 45-42 shootout victory as a 7-point underdog.

Meanwhile, there was nothing unusual or unexpected about top-seeded New England earning yet another trip to the AFC title game. The defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS) spotted Tennessee a 7-0 lead Saturday, then steamrolled to a 35-14 victory as a hefty 13.5-point home favorite.

“We didn’t even want to tempt the bettors with anything closer to a touchdown, and it’s a good thing, because as expected, all of the early money is on New England,” Cooley said. “This spread is probably going to creep north as the week goes on, but I’d be shocked if it went off at double digits. I’m certainly not expecting Jacksonville to win with Blake Bortles at quarterback, but that defense could keep things interesting.”

After opening the Pats -8, Bookmaker.eu was already up to 9 by late Sunday night. (Find more online sportsbook reviews at OddsShark.com)

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)

By way of one of the most amazing plays in NFL postseason history, Minnesota (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) could still become the first team to play the Super Bowl in its home stadium. The second-seeded Vikings appeared dead in the water Sunday, trailing 24-23 at home after No. 4 New Orleans hit a field goal with just 25 seconds remaining.

The Vikings faced third-and-10 on their own 39 with 10 seconds left and no timeouts when quarterback Case Keenum hit wideout Stefon Diggs 30 yards downfield near the sideline. Inexplicably, Saints safety Marcus Williams completely whiffed on what would have been a game-ending tackle if made inbounds, and Diggs raced to the end zone to give the Vikes a 29-24 victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

So Minnesota gets an NFC championship date with No. 1 seed Philadelphia, a team that wasn’t expected to survive without QB Carson Wentz, but remains alive and of course with home-field advantage. The Eagles (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS) went off as 2.5-point underdogs to defending NFC champ and No. 6 seed Atlanta on Saturday, but scrapped their way to a 15-10 victory.

“Philly in the underdog role once again, but this go-round, they are deserving of the tag,” Cooley said. “We saw a lot of moneyline money on that side against Atlanta, and will likely get the same action here. Minnesota was fortunate to get a win in the divisional round, but it was by far the better team.

“Two fantastic defenses on display,” Cooley said of the upcoming NFC title tilt, “which should make for an exciting game for the football purists.”

Minnesota drew the early action Sunday night at Bookmaker.eu, bumping the line up to 3.5.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Conference Championship Sunday's biggest betting mismatches
Monty Andrews

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-9, 46.5)

Jaguars' ball-hawking prowess vs. Patriots' lack of forced turnovers

One of the greatest quarterbacks in history is one win away from yet another Super Bowl trip, as Tom Brady and the New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship game. Brady had little trouble against the Tennessee Titans last week, but should have a much tougher time against a Jaguars defense that tormented opposing QBs all season. New England is a big favorite, but Jacksonville has a sizeable edge when it comes to forcing turnovers - and that could even things up this Sunday.

Few teams provided as many defensive highlights this season as the Jaguars, who surrendered the third-fewest points per game (17.4) while limiting teams to a paltry 4.7 yards per play. Jacksonville unrelenting defensive pressure also resulted in a whopping 33 turnovers forced - second only to the Baltimore Ravens. As a result, the Jaguars finished the regular season as one of only six teams with a double-digit turnover margin (plus-10) despite having one of the shakiest pass offenses in football.

New England was very careful with the football this season, turning the ball over just 12 times; only the Kansas City Chiefs had fewer turnovers. Yet, while Brady and Co. took care of the pigskin on offense, the Patriots' defense struggled to produce turnovers. New England finished with just 18 forced turnovers during the season (12 interceptions, six fumble recoveries), ahead of only seven other teams - only one of whom reached the postseason. Look for the Jags to exploit the turnover mismatch this Sunday.

Patriots' surging rushing game vs. Jaguars' suspect run D

Much of the focus will be on how Brady fares against a Jacksonville defense that produced the most sacks in the NFL during the regular season. But a handful of other matchups are also worth watching. How will Blake Bortles fare in hostile territory, having produced one of the worst completion rates of any starting QB this season? How will Rob Gronkowski match up against a Jags defense that allowed just six red-zone targets to tight ends? And can Jacksonville's run D contain the Pats' solid ground attack?

The answer to the final question could very well decide the AFC Championship. And if past history is any indicator, New England could find itself with a decided edge in that matchup. The Patriots have averaged 147 rushing yards over their past three games, all lopsided wins - and while you could attribute the total to an increase in rush attempts, New England still averaged a robust 4.3 yards per carry in those games. Only the Denver Broncos have averaged more rushing yards over their most recent three-game stretch.

The Jaguars defended the pass well in 2017, but struggled against the run. They rank in the bottom third of the league in rushing yards per game allowed (115.2) even after limiting Pittsburgh to 83 yards on the ground this past week. That was more a product of game flow, anyhow; things will be much different against the Patriots, which will put added pressure on a defense that allowed nine more rushing yards per game this season than it did in 2016. If the Jags can't halt the Pats' run game, this could be a laugher.


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, 38)

Vikings' third-down dominance vs. Eagles' recent drive-extension woes

Oddsmakers are expecting a defensive struggle Sunday evening as the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles square off with a spot in the Super Bowl at stake. The Eagles won a defensive slog against the Atlanta Falcons last weekend to advance, while the Vikings needed an incredible last-second touchdown pass to stun the new Orleans Saints. Minnesota is a modest favorite for this one, and will look to take advantage of a significant mismatch when it comes to third-down execution.

The Vikings were the top defensive team in the league by several metrics, most notably how they fared in third-down situations. Minnesota has allowed teams to score or extend drives on a minuscule 25.12 percent of their third-down opportunities; no other team in the NFL has a mark lower than 31.6 percent. All those crushed drives helped Minnesota finish second in the NFL in average possession rate at 54.15 percent - and if that happens again Sunday, the Super Bowl will have the host team on the field.

A look at the overall picture would suggest that the Eagles actually fared well on third downs, converting at a 42.0-percent clip - eighth-best in the league. But the majority of those conversions came with Carson Wentz under center - and now that he's out for the season, the Philadelphia offense has been far less effective. The Eagles have made good on just 23.7 percent of their third-down chances over the past three games - the third-worst rate of any team over its most recent three-game stretch.

Vikings' so-so ground game vs. Eagles' sensational run D

With both teams relying on journeyman quarterbacks who didn't begin the season as starters - and with this game being played outdoors - the NFC Championship could very well be decided by the respective ground games. And while both teams have been terrific at defending the run this season, the Eagles also ran the ball extremely well, averaging the third-most yards per game on a healthy 4.4 yards-per-carry average. The Vikings had the volume, but that quantity didn't translate to quality.

Minnesota's 1-2 punch of Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon certainly produced plenty of points; the Vikings averaged a rushing touchdown per game this season, the sixth-highest scoring rate in football. But Murray, McKinnon and the rest of the Minnesota rushing game averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, good for 23rd out of 32 teams. Minnesota does have the eighth-highest yards-per-game average in the league, but that's more a product of running the ball more than 31 times per game.

The Vikings might not get 30+ rushes Sunday - and even if they do, there's no guarantee they will be able to do anything with them. The Eagles are the class of the league when it comes to run defense, leading the NFL in fewest rushing yards surrendered per game (79.6). And while that was largely due to teams skewing heavily toward the pass, Philadelphia also held opposing rushers to a 3.8 YPC average - sixth-best in the league. A repeat performance would almost certainly put the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 21

Jacksonville @ New England

Game 311-312
January 21, 2018 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
136.023
New England
142.198
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+9 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Philadelphia

Game 313-314
January 21, 2018 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
141.567
Philadelphia
140.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3 1/2); Under




NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 21

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JACKSONVILLE (12 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (14 - 3) - 1/21/2018, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (14 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (14 - 3) - 1/21/2018, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Last four years, favorites are 7-1 vs spread in conference championship games.

Vikings (14-3) @ Eagles (14-3)— Minnesota was 5-0 LY when they came to Philly and lost 21-10, in game where total yardage was 282-239, Vikings. Minnesota OC Shurmur was Eagles’ OC from 2013-15; QB’s Keenum/Foles were teammates with Rams. This is first time in Super Bowl era that neither QB in a conference final started for his team in Week 1. Vikings won 12 of last 13 games; they’re 6-2 on road this year, 4-2 on grass, 4-2 vs spread as road favorites. Eagles won four of last five games, but scored 19-0-15 points in last three games, with backup QB Foles in for injured starter Wentz. Philly is 8-1 at home this year, is 3-2 vs spread as an underdog. Favorites are 3-1-1 vs spread in last five NFC title games. Since 2005, road favorites are 1-2-1 vs spread in conference title games. Vikings lost seven of last eight visits here; they’re 0-3 vs Eagles in playoff games, with last one in Metrodome in 2008.

Jaguars (12-6) @ Patriots (14-3)— Brady’s right hand is main question here; line dropped from 9 to 7.5, but no one really knows how bad it is, other than he didn’t practice Thursday. Patriots are in AFC title game for 7th year in row; they split last six AFC title games, are 7-4 in AFC title game in Belichick era, 5-1 at home (3-3 vs spread). Pats are 10-1 vs Jacksonville, with only loss in ’98 playoff game in Florida. Jags are 0-7 in Foxboro, with six losses by 11+ points- they lost 51-17 in last visit here, two years ago. This year, Jaguars are 4-2 vs spread as underdogs- they’re on road for 4th time in last five weeks. NE won 12 of its last 13 games; they covered their last six home games, but two of their three losses this year came at home. Looks like Jaguars will catch a break with the weather- high temps in Foxboro Sunday should be in upper 40’s.

Jacksonville @ New England (-7.5, 45.5)
Minnesota (-3, 38.5) @ Philadelphia




NFL

Conference Championships

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Trend Report
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Sunday, January 21

JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND
Jacksonville is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA
Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, January 21

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AFC Championship Game betting preview and odds: Jaguars at Patriots
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Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5, 46.5)

Not satisfied with a worst-to-first finish in their division, the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars look to continue their remarkable run when they visit the top-seeded New England Patriots for Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Jacksonville will have to solve the most successful coach-quarterback tandem in league history, although four-time Super Bowl MVP Tom Brady missed practice again Thursday with an injured right hand.

The Patriots are appearing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game, but coach Bill Belichick dismissed the idea that the been-there-won-that factor gives his team a huge edge. "I don’t think experience has anything to do with that," Belichick, who has guided New England to seven Super Bowls - winning five - since 2001, told reporters. "It is what happens Sunday, not what happened last year, two years ago, five years ago, 15 years ago, 1996 or whatever it is. Those games don’t make any difference, with all due respect." The third-seeded Jaguars are brimming with confidence, with star cornerback Jalen Ramsey predicting a victory over the Patriots in the wake of last week's 45-42 win at No. 2 seed Pittsburgh. Coach Doug Marrone acknowledged that New England presents "a great challenge for us" and fully expects to see Brady, saying, “I’m sure he could probably throw left-handed if he has a problem with his right hand and throw just as well.”

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 8.5-point home chalk and was quickly bet up to -9.5, however, money has been coming in on the Jags pushing that line down at most shops too -7.5 heading into the weekend. The total hit the betting board at 47 and is down slightly to 46.5.

WEATHER REPORT:



INJURY REPORT:

Jaguars - S Tashaun Gipson (Probable, Foot), WR Jaydon Mickens (Hamstring), OL Chris Reed (Questionable, Knee), WR Jaelen Strong (I-R, Knee), WR Arrelious Benn (I-R, Knee), LS Matt Overton (I-R, Shoulder).

Patriots - RB Rex Burkhead (Probable, Knee), DL Alan Branch (Questionable, Knee), RB Mike Gillislee (Questionable, Knee), WR Malcom Mitchell (Questionable, Knee), DT Vincent Valentine (Questionable, Knee), OL Marcus Cannon (I-R, Ankle), OL Tony Garcia (I-R, Illness).

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS, 9-9 O/U): Jacksonville features the league's top-ranked rushing attack led by rookie Leonard Fournette, who ran for 109 yards and three touchdowns last week but also nicked an ankle that limited him in practice Wednesday and Thursday. Blake Bortles completed just 53.1 percent of his passes in the two playoff wins, but he has not committed a turnover after tossing five interceptions in the final two regular-season games. The Jaguars will try to slow the NFL's top offense with a defense that surrenders a league-low 169.9 yards passing while ranking second in sacks (55) and interceptions (21). Ramsey and cornerback A.J. Bouye combined for 10 picks while defensive ends Calais Campbell (14.5) and Yannick Ngakoue (12) accounted for nearly half of the team's sacks.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS, 8-9 O/U): Brady owns the most postseason wins (26) in history and added to his playoff legacy last week, passing for more than 300 yards for the 13th time and surpassing Joe Montana with his 10th three-touchdown performance. Journeyman Brian Hoyer is the only quarterback on the roster besides Brady, who hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2008 and completed at least three passes to five different receivers in last week's 35-14 rout of Tennessee. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 60 yards in seven of his last eight games and added a season-high nine catches last week while tight end Rob Gronkowski has 34 receptions and four touchdowns over his last four contests. New England is vulnerable to the run, ranking 20th at 114.8 yards allowed, but it permits only 18.5 points per game.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

* Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 games following a straight up win.

* Over is 7-0 in Patriots last 7 playoff home games.

* Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New England.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Jacksonville Jaguars at a rate of 60 percent and the Over is getting 58 percent of the totals action.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, January 21

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NFC Championship Game betting preview and odds: Vikings at Eagles
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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 39)

The Philadelphia Eagles attempt to hold serve at home despite being tagged as underdogs for the second consecutive contest on Sunday as they host the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. The top-seeded Eagles benefited from a late defensive stand to fend off Atlanta last week while the second-seeded Vikings scored an improbable last-second touchdown to stun New Orleans.

Case Keenum (career-high 3,547 yards, 22 touchdowns and 98.3 passer rating) took a light-hearted approach upon addressing the media on Wednesday, three days after connecting with Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard scoring strike to complete the "Minneapolis Miracle" in a 29-24 triumph over the Saints. "I know this is what you guys all predicted: A (Nick) Foles vs. Keenum NFC Championship Game," he said, referencing the unlikely matchup pitting himself against a quarterback who was one year removed from seriously considering retirement. "It's been a crazy journey," said the 28-year-old Foles, who was acquired with Keenum by the then-St. Louis Rams on the same day (March 10, 2015) before ultimately returning to Philadelphia in a backup role. Foles has endured an uneven ride while filling in for the injured Carson Wentz, but completed 23 of 30 passes for 246 yards in a 15-10 win over the Falcons.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 3.5-point home underdogs, however bettors have shown them some love and as of Thursday night that number is down to +3. The total hit betting boards at 38 and in up slightly to 39.

WEATHER REPORT:



INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - WR Adam Thielen (Probable, Back), WR Michael Floyd (Questionable, Illness), CB Mackensie Alexander (Questionable, Ribs), S Andrew Sendejo (Questionable, Concussion), DT Shamar Stephen (Questionable, Knee), LS Kevin McDermott (I-R, Shoulder), C Nick Easton (I-R, Ankle), TE Blake Bell (I-R, Shoulder), DT Sharrif Floyd (Out Indefinitely, Knee), RB Dalvin Cook (I-R, Knee), RB Bishop Sankey (I-R, Knee).

Eagles - LB Dannell Ellerbe (Probable, Hamstring), CB Sidney Jones (Probable, Hamstring), QB Carson Wentz (I-R, Knee), K Caleb Sturgis (I-R, Quadricep), S Chris Maragos (I-R, Knee), LB Joe Walker (I-R, Undisclosed), LB Jordan Hicks (I-R, Achilles), T Jason Peters (I-R, Knee), RB Darren Sproles (I-R, Knee), RB Donnel Pumphrey (I-R, Hamstring), CB Randall Goforth (I-R, Knee), WR Dom Williams (I-R, Achilles), DT Aziz Shittu (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 8-9 O/U): Diggs overcame a slow start to finish with six catches for 137 yards and a touchdown against the Saints, giving him 28 receptions and four scores in the last five games. Fellow wideout Adam Thielen (team-leading 91 catches, 1,276 yards), who finished with six receptions versus New Orleans for the third time in five outings, returned to practice on Thursday after being plagued by a lower-back injury. Latavius Murray rushed for a touchdown last week to increase his total to 22 since 2016 (including playoff games) heading into a tilt with the NFL's top-ranked run defense.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (14-3 SU, 11-6 ATS, 8-9 O/U): Jay Ajayi stumbled out of the blocks with a fumble on his first carry last week before finishing with 54 yards rushing and 44 yards receiving on three catches. The 24-year-old clearly has become Philadelphia's top option out of the backfield following an in-season trade with Miami, but the terrain could be tough against Minnesota's top-ranked overall defense. Alshon Jeffery, who saw all four of his catches result in first downs last week, had a team-best nine touchdown receptions this season and has scored seven times in nine career games versus the Vikings.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
* Under is 4-1 in Vikings' last 5 playoff road games.
* Under is 9-1-1 in Eagles' last 11 playoff home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Philadelphia.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home underdog Philadelphia Eagles at a rate of 51 percent and the Over is getting 55 percent of the totals action.

[StarDust Bum]

Elite Jaguars defense a bad omen for Patriots backers and other conference championship trends
Ashton Grewal

The New England Patriots are the overwhelming favorites (+105) to win the Super Bowl and not for a lack of reasons. They’re the defending champions and are gunning for their sixth Vince Lombardi Trophy since 2002.

Pats QB Tom Brady is a two-time league MVP and the biggest name player in the sport while the other three quarterbacks left in the playoffs would have to wear their team jerseys to be recognized on the street.

New England owns the league’s best total offense and only the Los Angeles Rams scored more points than Brady and Bill Belichick’s crew this season. But sharp bettors have been loading up the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC title game according numerous oddsmakers in Las Vegas and offshore. Scott Kaminsky, the sportsbook director at TheGreek.com, told Covers the same group of sharp bettors backing the Jaguars were on them last weekend against Pittsburgh too.

Jacksonville ranks sixth in total offense and fifth in scoring, but with Blake Bortles under center few people identify the team as an offensive power. The Jaguars' defense is what got them this far which is the polar opposite of New England. The Patriots are in the AFC Championship Game for seventh straight year in spite of their defense which ranks 29th in the league in yards allowed.

We looked back at the all the conference championship games to see if there was any correlation between weak defensive teams and ATS (against the spread) failures in the championship round. We eliminated any matchups with two poor defenses and only looked for games where one team had a top 5 defense and the other side was 24th or lower.

Digging back as far as 1985 here’s what we found:



• It doesn’t happen very often. There were only six cases since 1985 where one team with an elite defense matched up against another side with one of the least effective stopper units.
• Defensive teams aren’t having as much luck in the AFC playoffs. In the last five years, only one top 5 team in total defense (2015-16 Denver Broncos) have made it to the final four.
• The under is the most profitable play in this scenario. Games played under the closing total in the five of the six cases we identified.
• The defensive teams went 4-2 against the spread in the six cases and 3-0 in the three games the defensive teams were getting points.

Here are a few other conference championship trends we dug up:

• Home teams 8-0 SU in last eight conference championship games, going 7-1 ATS.
• Favorites are 16-4 SU in conference championship games over the last 10 years, 12-8 ATS.

AFC

• Home teams are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 AFC title games.
• Only two of the last 18 AFC champions won the conference title game but failed to cover the spread.
• The favored team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight years.
• There have been seven outright upsets in the last 18 AFC title games.

NFC

• The favorite is 4-1 in the last five NFC title games.
• The over is 9-3 in the last 12 NFC title games.

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Moves - Championships
January 19, 2018

"Did you hear Tom Brady hurt his throwing hand in practice?"

That's the chatter around sports books all across Nevada the past few days as the weekend pushes us into Championship Sunday.

Is Brady 100 percent? How did he practice Friday? Did he practice Friday?

The New England Patriots starting quarterback is kind of important to the point-spread, which has dropped from being as high as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars before the injury down to -7.5 shortly after the injury became known.

Bookmakers want to know more information to protect against sharp info. Bettors are wondering when they should jump in on the Jaguars before some really bad news surfaces. Quite a few have thrown down against the Patriots, a team they're usually siding with. The Patriots have covered 10 of their last 11 games.

The uncertainty of Brady's injury alone is worth 1.5-points of safety speculation. He's almost certain to play Sunday, but maybe at only 85 percent with accuracy and grip possibly being affected. He's worn a glove on his throwing hand while not participating in Thursday's practice and also while being on the field during the start of Friday's practice.

It doesn't hurt to reference what the line would be if Patriots back-up QB Brian Hoyer was starting. Hoyer's only playoff start saw him throw four interceptions in a 30-0 loss when he was the signal caller for the Houston Texans in the 2015 postseason.

"Wow, if Hoyer's starting, I'd be thinking Patriots -2.5, maybe -2.5 EVEN," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal.

Talk of no Brady is a bit extreme and the Las Vegas books expect him to play. But the perceptions has certainly changed some betting patterns.

"They took +9 with the Jags before the injury, a sharp guy, so we went to -8.5," Simbal said Friday afternoon.

"Then we got some more play on the Jags after the injury news on Thursday when he didn't practice. We didn't wait long and went to -7.5 and that's where the bulk of the action has been."

Simbal noted that no large action is laying the Patriots, but the smaller money has been on them to even things out.

"The big differnce here making us need the Patriots right now is a lot of money-line wagers on the Jags," said Simbal, who opened the Jaguars +350 and now it's -335/+275.

"Even with a healthy Brady, the Jaguars top-ranked pass defense with it's pass rush (55 sacks) is the same kind of formula teams like the Jets in the past with Rex Ryan, and the Ravens and Broncos have shown to give Brady problems."

Simbal says the best Super Bowl for Las Vegas from all business aspects in all departments is the Patriots and Vikings, but he wouldn't mind the Jaguars getting there for his book.

"A Jacksonville win wouldn't be all bad for us, though," he said. "They were the least bet team in our Super Bowl futures coming into the season and although we have a few tickets out there at 100-to-1 odds, we're close to winning seven-figures with them if they do win the Super Bowl."

Because of the Patriots being over a TD favorite, naturally, they're a favorite with teaser bettors getting +6, +6.5 or +7 on the exotic wager paired with one or more other options.

"The Patriots are the biggest risk on the teasers this week," Simbal said. "It's the main link tied into both sides of the other game and both sides of the totals."

In the late game, the Eagles are hosting the NFC Championship as the No. 1 seed, but oddly, the Vikings are three-point road favorites.

The last time the road team was favored at a No. 1 seed in the championship round was the Patriots at Denver (+3) two seasons ago with Von Miller and the Broncos constantly pressuring Brady and winning 20-18. The No. 1 seeds are 7-0 straight-up in their last seven conference championship games.

As of Friday, the sharps are taking the perceived value with the Birds, but the public is laying it with the Vikings.

"Most of our sharp action comes across on the phones and we have two-times the action there taking the Eagles," said Simbal, "but over-the-counter wagers, which are mostly smaller wagers from fans, are on the Vikings and have been three-times more than the Eagles."

At one point in the season, before starting QB Carson Wentz was lost for the season, the Eagles were the NFC's highest rated team. There was an immediate 4.5-point adjustment made when Philly turned to back-up Nick Foles.

After Foles looked awful against Oakland and Dallas to close the season out, the Eagles rating dropped even more (-4.5) heading into the playoffs on an 0-3 run against the spread.

"I think the start of the Eagles being underrated here is when the Falcons were overrated last week," said Simbal. "And let's be honest about the Vikings, they really lost last week and had trouble with the Saints pass rush while blowing a 17-0 halftime lead at home, and the Eagles front seven is better."

Foles was a magnificent field manager in the 15-10 win against the Falcons, but there was no bump up in the Eagles rating. It's like the Falcons game never happened or answered some questions about Foles, who has now practiced with the Eagles first-string offense the past six weeks.

Last season in this round saw both favorites win and cover, easily, with the 'over' happening in both. It was a very public day.

Enjoy the games and be sure to check back daily for Super Bowl updates from Las Vegas sports books over the next two weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

— Eagles’ 38 unanswered points are the most by any team in a playoff game since the Jets scored 41 unanswered points against Indianapolis in ’02 Wild Card game.

— Nick Foles/Drew Brees went to the same high school in Texas; Foles becomes the 2nd QB to start a Super Bowl who played high school ball in Texas.

— Last five years, 9 of 10 #1 seeds made it to the Super Bowl. Only the ’16 Cowboys didn’t.

— On January 24, 2017, the Eagles opened at 50-1 to win this year’s Super Bowl.

— If you care about such things, total on the Super Bowl is 48
.
— JJ Watt has to win the NFL’s Man of the Year, right? Guy raised $37M for charity.

Quote of the Day

“He’s a tough guy, we all know that. But we’re not talking about open heart surgery here,”
Bill Belichick, on Tom Brady’s stitched-up right hand

Monday’s quiz

Who holds the record for most postseason touchdowns in the NFL?

Sunday’s quiz

Jack Ramsay was the Portland Trailblazers’ coach when they won their only NBA title.

Saturday’s quiz

Columbus is the capital of Ohio.

*************************************

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) Patriots 24, Jaguars 20— Tom Brady went to the same high school as Barry Bonds, Lynn Swann— Serra HS in San Mateo, CA; their booster club must have a boatload of money.

Despite all that, my favorite Serra HS alum is former big league infielder Tim Cullen, who won a World Series ring as a reserve infielder with the ’72 Oakland A’s.

Looking up Cullen’s career, which lasted seven years, in February, 1968 he was traded from the Senators to the White Sox, then in August that same year, he was traded back to Washington. In both trades, infielder Ron Hansen went the other way. No idea why.

12) Patriots’ WR Danny Amendola played the first four years of his career with the St Louis Rams; he missed 22 of 64 games in those years, when the Rams went a combined 17-46-1. Amendola was productive when he played, but he missed way too many games.

In five years since moving on to New England, Amendola has played in 69 of 80 games, for a team that went 63-17— are the Patriots’ trainers that much better than the Rams’ trainers?

11) Maybe this happens a lot and I’ve just never seen it, but when the Patriots’ game ended and Brady was shaking hands with a guy on Jacksonville, referee Clete Blakeman patted Brady on the back, got his attention, then said something quick to him before he left.

Since when do the referees congratulate players after they win?

10) In 266 NFL games this season, only 12 times has a team been called for zero or one penalty in a game— New England became the 12th team Sunday.

Last time an NFL team had only one penalty in a playoff game? The Patriots, back in 2011.

9) Two years ago, for whatever reason, ESPN went out of its way to promote LSU’s freshman star Ben Simmons, to the point where you almost rooted against Simmons, especially when LSU didn’t make the NCAA tournament. It became sickening that ESPN would promote a kid who had no resume— it was all hype.

This year, they’re doing the same thing with Oklahoma’s Trae Young, to the point where the kid has 28 turnovers in his last three games but you feel like ESPN thinks he is the best college ballplayer since Michael Jordan, or at least Simmons. Enough already; let the season play itself out. At least Oklahoma will be in the NCAA’s.

8) How many movies has Dwayne Johnson made? Seems like The Rock is working his butt off, making a ton of cash. According to IMDB.com, Mr Johnson has made 70 movies/TV shows, not counting all his WWE stuff and he is only 46 years old.

He has 10 projects that have either been completed or announced but not released yet. Have to give him credit, he is making a lot of money while the proverbial iron is hot.

7) When Nick Foles went to the Pro Bowl after the 2013 season, his OC with the Eagles was Pat Shurmur, who is Minnesota’s OC now and is expected to be named head coach of the Giants Tuesday. Foles could win the Super Bowl, then go back to being the Eagles’ backup next year.

6) What the hell do the Vikings do now? Bad enough they have to go home and have the Super Bowl played in their own ballpark, but their offseason will really be interesting.

Which of the three QB’s stays in Minnesota? Keenum? Bridgewater? Bradford? Do two of them stay and if so, which one takes a hike? Lot of hard questions need to be answered.

5) Clemson Tigers are 16-3 and appear headed to the NCAAs, but they lost 2nd-leading scorer Donte Grantham with a torn ACL Saturday— he is out for the year.

4) Man if you don’t like football, Sunday was a rough day for sports on TV; a few, but not many college hoop games- no real good ones, some golf, the Australian Open, but just a lackluster TV day, except for the conference championship games.

3) Eagles 38, Vikings 7—During the regular season, Vikings were only team not to allow a defensive TD against them- whoops. Patrick Robinson’s first quarter pick-6 changed all that, and turned the tide in a game that Minnesota led early, 7-0.

2) NFL trivia— Case Keenum could’ve become the second undrafted QB to start a Super Bowl, but the draft today is only seven rounds— John Unitas was a 9th round pick of the Steelers in 1955, though there were also a lot fewer teams then. Unitas was the 102nd player taken in the ’55 draft, which would put him in the 4th round these days.

Kurt Warner remains the only undrafted QB to start a Super Bowl.

1) Early line on the Super Bowl: Patriots, -5.5 or 6, bet down already from -7. Some experts are predicting it’ll get back to 7 or 7.5 in the next two weeks.

It is unusual that the Eagles just KO’d the Vikings and now head to Minnesota for the Super Bowl, where it is doubtful they’ll get a warm reception.

2018 handicapping note: Vikings return to Philadelphia in the 2018 regular season.

[StarDust Bum]

Super Bowl History

The Super Bowl is the championship for the National Football League (NFL), which is America’s superior football league. The game pits the winner of two conferences, the National Football Conference (NFC) against the American Football Conference (AFC) in the finale. This is an annual event that started in 1967 and is usually played on the first Sunday in February.

The NFC owns a 26-25 edge over the AFC in the first 51 Super Bowl matchups. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers all have five.

The Super Bowl is the most gambled-on sporting event in the United States. Favorites have gone 35-16 straight up and 28-19-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The ‘over/under’ has gone 26-24. The biggest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The point-spread rarely comes into play with the Super Bowl, meaning you just have to pick the winner of the game. There have only been six instances where the favorite won the game straight up but failed to cover the number. Those outcomes occurred in 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976.

In the 2014-15 Super Bowl between New England and Seattle, the closing consensus line was pick 'em, which was the first in the NFL finale. The Patriots rallied for a 28-24 victory over the Seahawks.

Oddsmakers were on the money with their numbers in two Super Bowls, which produced pushes or ties. Those matchups took place in 1997 and 2000.

The most infamous pro football finale for oddsmakers was Super Bowl XIII. The 13th installment saw the Steelers open as 4 ½-point favorites over the Cowboys and the number dropped to 3 ½-points with early action on the Cowboys. Even though Dallas lost the game 35-31 to Pittsburgh, early bettors cashed with the 4 ½-points and Steelers backers won on the closing line. To this day, SBXIII is considered “Black Sunday” for the sportsbooks.

SUPER BOWL (1967-2017)

Super Bowl Year Location Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result

LI 2017 Houston, TX Atlanta vs. New England New England -3, 57 New England 34 Atlanta 28 (OT) Favorite-Over

L 2016 Santa Clara, CA Carolina vs. Denver Carolina -5 (43.5) Denver 24 Carolina 10 Underdog-Under

XLIX 2015 Glendale, AZ Seattle vs. New England Pick 'em (47.5) New England 28 Seattle 24 Over

XLVIII 2014 East Rutherford, NJ Seattle vs. Denver Denver -2.5 (47.5) Seattle 43 Denver 8 Underdog-Over

XLVII 2013 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Baltimore San Francisco -4.5 (48) Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31 Underdog-Over

XLVI 2012 Indianapolis, IN N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -2.5 (53) N.Y. Giants 21 New England 17 Underdog-Under

XLV 2011 Arlington, TX Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh Green Bay -3 (45) Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25 Favorite-Over

XLIV 2010 Miami, FL New Orleans vs. Indianapolis Indianapolis -5 (57) New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17 Underdog-Under

XLIII 2009 Tampa, FL Pittsburgh vs. Arizona Pittsburgh -7 (46) Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 23 Underdog-Over

XLII 2008 Glendale, AZ N.Y. Giants vs. New England New England -12 (55) N.Y. Giants 17 New England 14 Underdog-Under

XLI 2007 Miami, FL Indianapolis vs. Chicago Indianapolis -7 (47) Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17 Favorite-Under

XL 2006 Detroit, MI Pittsburgh vs. Seattle Pittsburgh -4 (47) Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10 Favorite-Under

XXXIX 2005 Jacksonville, FL New England vs. Philadelphia New England -7 (46.5) New England 24 Philadelphia 21 Underdog-Under

XXXVIII 2004 Houston, TX New England vs. Carolina New England -7 (37.5) New England 32 Carolina 29 Underdog-Over

XXXVII 2003 San Diego, CA Tampa Bay vs. Oakland Oakland -4 (44) Tampa Bay 48 Oakland 21 Underdog-Over

XXXVI 2002 New Orleans, LA New England vs. St. Louis St. Louis -14 (53) New England 20 St. Louis 17 Underdog-Under

XXXV 2001 Tampa, FL Baltimore vs. N.Y. Giants Baltimore -3 (33) Baltimore 34 N.Y. Giants 7 Favorite-Over

XXXIV 2000 Atlanta, GA St. Louis vs. Tennessee St. Louis -7 (45) St. Louis 23 Tennessee 16 Push-Under

XXXIII 1999 Miami, FL Denver vs. Atlanta Denver -7.5 (52.5) Denver 34 Atlanta 19 Favorite-Over

XXXII 1998 San Diego, CA Denver vs. Green Bay Green Bay -11 (49) Denver 31 Green Bay 24 Underdog-Over

XXXI 1997 New Orleans, LA Green Bay vs. New England Green Bay -14 (49) Green Bay 35 New England 21 Push-Over

*** 1996 Tempe, AZ Dallas vs. Pittsburgh Dallas -13.5 (51) Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Under

XXIX 1995 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. San Diego San Francisco -18.5 (53.5) San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 Favorite-Over

XXVIII 1994 Atlanta, GA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -10.5 (50.5) Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 Favorite-Under

XXVII 1993 Pasadena, CA Dallas vs. Buffalo Dallas -6.5 (44.5) Dallas 52 Buffalo 17 Favorite-Over

XXVI 1992 Minneapolis, MN Washington vs. Buffalo Washington -7 (49) Washington 37 Buffalo 24 Favorite-Over

XXV 1991 Tampa, FL N.Y. Giants vs. Buffalo Buffalo -7 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 Buffalo 19 Underdog-Under

XXIV 1990 New Orleans, LA San Francisco vs. Denver San Francisco -12 (48) San Francisco 55 Denver 10 Favorite-Over

XXIII 1989 Miami, FL San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -7 (48) San Francisco 20 Cincinnati 16 Underdog-Under
XXII 1988 San Diego, CA Washington vs. Denver Denver -3 (47) Washington 42 Denver 10 Underdog-Over

XXI 1987 Pasadena, CA N.Y. Giants vs. Denver N.Y. Giants -9.5 (40) N.Y. Giants 39 Denver 20 Favorite-Over

XX 1986 New Orleans, LA Chicago vs. New England Chicago -10 (37.5) Chicago 46 New England 10 Favorite-Over

XIX 1985 Stanford, CA San Francisco vs. Miami San Francisco -3.5 (53.5) San Francisco 38 Miami 16 Favortie-Over

XVIII 1984 Tampa, FL L.A. Raiders vs. Washington Washington -3 (48) L.A. 38 Washington 9 Underdog-Under

XVII 1983 Pasadena, CA Washington vs. Miami Miami -3 (36.5) Washington 27 Miami 17 Underdog-Over

XVI 1982 Pontiac, MI San Francisco vs. Cincinnati San Francisco -1 (48) San Francisco 26 Cincinnati 21 Favorite-Under

XV 1981 New Orleans, LA Oakland vs. Philadelphia Philadelphia -3 (37.5) Oakland 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under

XIV 1980 Pasadena, CA Pittsburgh vs. L.A. Rams Pittsburgh -10.5 (36) Pittsburgh 31 L.A. Rams 19 Favorite-Over

XIII 1979 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -3.5 (37) Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31 Favorite-Over

XII 1978 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Denver Dallas -6 (39) Dallas 27 Denver 10 Favorite-Under

XI 1977 Pasadena, CA Oakland vs. Minnesota Oakland -4 (38) Oakland 34 Minnesota 14 Favorite-Over

X 1976 Miami, FL Pittsburgh vs. Dallas Pittsburgh -7 (36) Pittsburgh 21 Dallas 17 Underdog-Over

IX 1975 New Orleans, LA Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota Pittsburgh -3 (33) Pittsburgh 16 Minnesota 6 Favorite-Under

VIII 1974 Houston, TX Miami vs. Minnesota Miami -6.5 (33) Miami 24 Minnesota 7 Favorite-Under

VII 1973 Los Angeles, CA Miami vs. Washington Miami -1 (33) Miami 14 Washington 7 Favorite-Under

VI 1972 New Orleans, LA Dallas vs. Miami Dallas -6 (34) Dallas 24 Miami 3 Favorite-Under

V 1971 Miami, FL Baltimore vs. Dallas Baltimore -2.5 (36) Baltimore 16 Dallas 13 Favorite-Under

IV 1970 New Orleans, LA Kansas City vs. Minnesota Minnesota -12 (39) Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7 Underdog-Under

III 1969 Miami, FL N.Y. Jets vs. Baltimore Baltimore -18 (40) N.Y. Jets 16 Baltimore 7 Underdog-Under

II 1968 Miami, FL Green Bay vs. Oakland Green Bay -13.5 (43) Green Bay 33 Oakland 14 Favorite-Over

I 1967 Los Angeles, CA Green Bay vs. Kansas City Green Bay -14 (N/A) Green Bay 35 Kansas City 10 Favorite

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots, Eagles ready for SB rematch
January 21, 2018

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are going back to the Super Bowl in search of a sixth title.

They'll face a Philadelphia Eagles team looking for their first Lombardi Trophy.

Brady led the Patriots (15-3) back from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 24-20 in the AFC championship game Sunday.

Starting his 36th playoff game, Brady shook off an injury to his right hand and the loss of top target Rob Gronkowski to rally the Patriots to their record 10th Super Bowl appearance.

The Patriots will try to match the Pittsburgh Steelers' six Super Bowl trophies when they face the Eagles (15-3) on Feb. 4 in Minneapolis.

Nick Foles, the backup QB who was thrust into the starting role when Carson Wentz blew out his left knee last month, led the Philadelphia to a 38-7 rout of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC championship game.

Foles threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns, showing poise and moxie in going 26 for 33.

The Vikings were hoping to become the first NFL team to serve as host to a Super Bowl in its own stadium, but they followed up their ''Minneapolis Miracle '' with a ''Flop in Philly.''

So, they'll clear out their lockers long before the Eagles and Patriots and their fans take over U.S. Bank Stadium for Super Bowl 52 in two weeks.

Oddsmakers like the chances of Brady winning a sixth Super Bowl ring , making the Patriots nearly a touchdown favorite to beat the Eagles.

The Patriots and Eagles, who last won an NFL title in 1960, several years before the first Super Bowl, met in the Super Bowl after the 2004 season with the Patriots prevailing 24-21.

Hours after Brady's game-winning 4-yard TD pass to Danny Amendola with 2:48 remaining in Foxborough, the Eagles won for the fourth time in five tries under Foles.

It started out ominously, however.

The Vikings celebrated Kyle Rudolph's 25-yard touchdown catch from Case Keenum on their opening drive by mimicking the Olympic sport of curling for their TD celebration.

It was the Eagles who had all the fun after that.

Patrick Robinson's spectacular 50-yard interception return got Philadelphia started. Then Foles and his offense tore up the league's stingiest scoring defense, with long TD throws to Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. LeGarrette Blount had an 11-yard scoring run when things were decided in the first half, and the Eagles were headed to an NFL title game the Vikings (14-4) hoped to be in at their own stadium.

''You know everyone was against us,'' Foles said. ''Coming out here and stick together and (we) come away with an amazing victory against a great team.''

Blake Bortles and the stingy Jaguars (12-7) led New England 20-10 early in the fourth quarter, but couldn't hold against the defending champions.

The NFL's second-ranked defense kept Brady and the Patriots at bay for most of the game, but lost linebacker Myles Jack and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus on consecutive plays on New England's winning drive.

It was New England's 13th win in 14 games since their 2-2 start. Their only stumble since September was a 27-20 loss at the Dolphins on Dec. 11.

Brady, wearing a black bandage on his right hand after needing stitches to close a cut that happened on a play during practice earlier in the week, showed no signs of being hampered.

And, with the game - and the season - possibly on the line, the Patriots star came up big again.

''I've had a lot worse,'' Brady said. ''I didn't know that on Wednesday. It was a crazy injury. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday was a little scary. Then I started getting some confidence and today we did just enough to win.''

Brady finished 26 of 38 for 290 yards and two touchdowns to Amendola.

It's the eighth Super Bowl appearance for Brady and coach Bill Belichick, who have won five times - including last year's 34-28 overtime rally against the Falcons.

''It's pretty amazing,'' Brady said. ''Just to be on a team that wins these kinds of games, it's just a great accomplishment.''

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Patriots open as early Super Bowl favorites over Eagles
January 21, 2018

Moments after the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday to earn a berth in Super Bowl LII on Feb. 4, the Westgate sports book in Las Vegas opened New England as a 5.5-point favorite.

The over/under opened at 47.5 points.

The Wynn Las Vegas sports book, according to the Las Vegas Review Journal, opened New England as a 6 1/2-point favorite, with a total of 47.

The William Hill Race & Sports book released its odds with the Patriots a 5-point favorite. William Hill set the total for the game at over/under 48.

In last year's Super Bowl, won when New England overcame a 28-3 deficit to the Atlanta Falcons, a record-setting $138.5 million was wagered in Nevada sports books, according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

In their last 12 games, the Patriots have covered the spread 10 times, although they failed to cover the 7 1/2-point spread against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.

Led by quarterback Nick Foles, the Eagles have cashed in as underdogs for three straight weeks.

The Patriots and Eagles have met once before in the Super Bowl, in Super Bowl XXXIX on Feb. 6, 2005, in Jacksonville.

The Patriots won 24-21 with Tom Brady throwing for 236 yards and two touchdowns. New England wide receiver Deion Branch was named MVP after compiling 133 yards on 11 receptions.

According to OddsShark.com, this is the sixth time in the past 15 years the Patriots have been the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

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Books clean up Title Games
January 22, 2018

Championship Sunday turned out exactly how most books wished with a bookmaker's dream happening as the Patriots won but failed to cover and then the Eagles getting a blow out win to help avoid an all way, all day teaser pleaser for bettors.

"It was a great day, we won both games and did well to the futures we posted," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "It was one of the best NFL days we've had outside of a Super Bowl. It continues a great January for us. Today, everything went our way. It was our best case scenario. The only thing we lost on today was the (Golden) Knights."

The inaugural NHL season in Las Vegas is going quite well as the teams leads the NHL with 66 points, and a few million in future risk should they win the Stanley Cup once offered at 500/1 odds.

Anyway, we've got the No. 1 seeds in the NFL hooking up in Super Bowl 52 on Feb. 4 from Minnesota.

This is what we want, right? The two best teams.

The books have been on a supercharged 2018 as they've been winning each week of the playoffs compared to last season when they lost every week. The month over month ledgers are going to look amazing in the NFL. The biggest risk in the Patriots 24-20 win against the Jaguars, who led 20-10 in the fourth quarter, was on the spread and money-line. New England quarterback Tom Brady was unreal, again. But the Jags didn't have a turnover, held the ball for 35 minutes and out-gained the Patriots 374 yards to 344.

Sharp money was on Jacksonville and the public wagers on the game liked the Jags money-line, which the South Point and Caesars Palace closed at a city high +300. Another faction of the massive public also laid the points with the Patriots, which opened as high as -9.5, dropped to -7 because of Brady's injury question mark.

It's a bookmaker's dream because the guys behind the counter hit both tickets.

However, the public got some back with the all-way teaser cashing, side and total. That's a four-team teaser that has no losing options for the bettor. The house can't win in many cases which is why a two-team NFL teaser is the best wager offered, favorable for the player.

Getting the Jags to cover started the books day off well. One William Hill bettor laid -7 with the Patriots for $250,000. That win rolled right into the Eagles (+3) routing the Vikings, 38-7, and paying +135 on the money-line.

Nick Foles, are you kidding me with this guy? It truly was one of the greatest back-up QB playoff performances in NFL history. He was 22-of-33 for 352 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 141.4 QB rating. The blowout avoided the all-way teaser winner for the day.

"It couldn't have been much better," said Atlantis Renosports book director Marc Nelson. "We did get a flood of Eagles money late taking the points and also on the money-line, but we held over 15 percent for the day."

The books cashed their NFC and AFC Championship futures and most fared very well with these favorites.

"We do better on our futures with the Eagles, but we're sitting great with both teams," said Kornegay.

Now the plan moving forward is finding out what this Super Bowl line should really be. And where is it going?

"We we're deciding between 5, 5.5 and 6, but we all agreed on -5.5," said Kornegay. "We think we're going to see some Eagles support here."

Station Casinosopened their Super Bowl line with the Patriots -6, the money-line at -240/+190 and the total set at 47.5.

The Eagles figure to get early play because its the most public wagered game of the year. The squares determine where this game goes because there's more of them. Everyone is betting this game. And these type of people all remember what they saw last, the most. Patriots struggled, Eagles soared. It's fresh and stuck in our minds. Plus, the general tendency from the public is to bet the under dog on the money-line. By the way, the underdogs have gone 9-1 against the spread in these playoffs after going 2-9 ATS last season.

"Every Patriots Super Bowl is a close game," said Kornegay. "Last year's six-point win was their largest margin of victory."

This is what the Patriots do so well, but let's really look at the number. This is a neutral field in Minnesota. Are the Patriots really six-points better? Because last week, oddsmakers said the Vikings were six-points better than the Eagles on a neutral field. Doesn't Foles get extra credit for two amazing playoff wins.

Before Carson Wentz got hurt, these two teams were rated almost the same. Philly had the No. 4 defense, but Foles caused a mass overreaction on the Eagles rating downgrade. Because of Foles success, I'm willing to say the drop off should only be 4.5-points from Wentz which means the spread on this game should probably be -4.5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see -4. That's why the books like -5.5 because they have a lot of wiggle room with a dead number. Who wants to mess around and stress with a -3 or -7, the most key numbers in the most bet game of the year.

The Foles props are going to be interesting with different books having varying yardage numbers which should present some middle opportunities. The Westgate SuperBook crew is in rapid prop motion right now.

"We've already started working on our props to get a kind of a running start on them," said Kornegay of his world famous props. "We're looking at posting them at around 5:00 p.m. PT on Thursday and then we'll have the sheets all prepared on Friday."

This Super Bowl is a rematch from the 2005 season where the Patriots (-7) beat the Eagles 24-21. It was again a "Bookmaker's Dream" with the Eagles getting the cover, but not the win. It was Brady's third Super Bowl win in four seasons.

One more note, the underdog has covered in 12 of the past 16 Super Bowls.