The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

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NFL notebook: Packers activate QB Rodgers
December 16, 2017

The Green Bay Packers officially activated quarterback Aaron Rodgers off injured reserve Saturday ahead of the team traveling for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers.

Rodgers is officially cleared to make his much-anticipated return as the Packers (7-6) cling to playoff hopes in a test against the Panthers (9-4).

To clear a spot on the roster, the Packers reportedly released third-string quarterback Joe Callahan, who had been backing up Brett Hundley while Rodgers was on IR with a broken right collarbone.

Rodgers missed seven games and underwent surgery to repair his broken right clavicle in a Week 6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Packers went 3-4 in Rodgers' absence with Brett Hundley serving as the quarterback.

--Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell is the most popular player among fans in the NFL's Pro Bowl voting.

The NFL announced on NFL Network's "Good Morning Football Weekend" the top five fan vote-getters for the 2018 Pro Bowl, with Bell receiving 855,539 fan votes ending Thursday.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady received 833,481 votes, followed by Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown (832,446), Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz (829,174) and New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (743,355).

The 2018 Pro Bowl is set to take place Jan. 28 in Orlando, Fla

--Running back Reggie Bush, who has not played since last season, said "I'm done" after 11 NFL seasons and wants to retire as a New Orleans Saints player.

Prior to the 2017 season, Bush indicated he wanted one more chance to play in the NFL and felt he still had "a lot left to give" on the field.

Bush, who turns 33 in March, told NFL Network's Dan Hellie and Maurice Jones-Drew on Friday that his career has come to an end.

--Atlanta Falcons running back Tevin Coleman was ruled out for Monday night's game at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers due to a concussion, the team announced.

Coleman sustained the concussion during the Falcons' 20-17 win over the New Orleans Saints on Dec. 7.

He has rushed for 593 yards with 245 receiving yards this season.

Coach Dan Quinn also ruled out starting left guard Andy Levitre, who is recovering from a left triceps injury.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ruled out defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III for Monday night's game against the Falcons, coach Dirk Koetter said.

Linebacker Lavonte David also was ruled out due to a hamstring injury suffered last week.

--The Cincinnati Bengals placed center T.J. Johnson on the injured reserve due to a chest muscle injury.

To take his spot on the roster, the Bengals signed running back Jarveon Williams off the team's practice squad.

--The Arizona Cardinals promoted tight end Gabe Holmes to the active roster from the practice squad on and released running back Bronson Hill.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 15
December 16, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8

Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14


Week 15

1) San Francisco -2 (765)
2) Kansas City PK (750)
3) L.A. Chargers PK (719)
4) New England -3 (670)
5) L.A. Rams +2 (621)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Denver (-2.5) 130 Indianapolis (+2.5) 121
Chicago (+5.5) 555 Detroit (-5.5) 325
L.A. Chargers (PK) 719 Kansas City (PK) 750
Philadelphia (-7.5) 367 N.Y. Giants (+7.5) 263
Green Bay (+3) 481 Carolina (-3) 566
Cincinnati (+10.5) 195 Minnesota (-10.5) 481
Miami (+3.5) 268 Buffalo (-3.5) 396
Houston (+10.5) 288 Jacksonville (-10.5) 388
N.Y. Jets (+15.5) 174 New Orleans (-15.5) 405
Arizona (+4) 198 Washington (-4) 332
Baltimore (-7) 496 Cleveland (+7) 304
L.A. Rams (+2) 621 Seattle (-2) 484
New England (-3) 670 Pittsburgh (+3) 570
Tennessee (+2) 396 San Francisco (-2) 765
Dallas (-3) 595 Oakland (+3) 351
Atlanta (-6.5) 422 Tampa Bay (+6.5) 269

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 3-2 25-35 42%
13 5-0 30-35 46%
14 3-2 33-37 47%
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -

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NHL roundup: Ovechkin lifts Capitals in OT
December 16, 2017

WASHINGTON -- Alex Ovechkin scored 1:58 into overtime as the Washington Capitals rallied from a two-goal deficit to defeat the Anaheim Ducks 3-2 on Saturday night.

Ovechkin entered the Anaheim zone and blasted a shot from the top of the right circle that eluded goalie John Gibson. It was Ovechkin's 23rd goal of the season. Washington's Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov scored third-period goals.

Derek Grant and Jakob Silfverberg gave the Ducks a 2-0 lead after two periods. Gibson stopped 24 shots for Anaheim.

Braden Holtby made 28 saves for the Capitals, who won for the 10th time in 12 games. The Ducks have earned at least a point in their past seven games (3-0-4) after losing for the eighth time after regulation this season.

Blues 2, Jets 0

ST. LOUIS -- Backup Carter Hutton made a career-high 48 saves and Vladimir Tarasenko scored one power-play goal and assisted on another in St. Louis' victory over Winnipeg.

Hutton, who came off injured reserve Friday after recovering from a foot injury, recorded his first shutout of the season and ninth of his career in his first start since Dec. 1. The Jets fired 15 shots at Hutton in the first period and 21 in the second but could not score as they fell to 1-4-1 in their last six games and 0-4-2 in their last six road games.

The win snapped a six-game losing streak by the Blues against Winnipeg (0-5-1), which had won all five games in the last season's series.

Flyers 2, Stars 1 (OT)

PHILADELPHIA -- Shayne Gostisbehere scored two power-play goals, including the winner 3:50 into overtime, as Philadelphia defeated Dallas.

Jakub Voracek picked up assists on Gostisbehere's goals and goaltender Brian Elliott stopped 26 shots to give the Flyers their sixth straight victory after a 10-game losing streak.

Gemel Smith scored for the Stars, who have lost five of their last seven games (2-4-1). Ben Bishop stopped 28 shots in his third straight loss.

Islanders 4, Kings 3 (OT)

NEW YORK -- Jordan Eberle scored 1:54 into overtime as New York overcame a two-goal first period deficit to edge Los Angeles.

Eberle's score, which came after Islanders goaltender Thomas Greiss turned back two Kings breakaway opportunities, capped a wild final few minutes in which Anders Lee gave New York the lead with 3:16 remaining in regulation before Anze Kopitar forced overtime with 13 seconds left.

Josh Bailey and John Tavares also scored for the Islanders while Greiss made 26 saves. Oscar Fantenberg and Tyler Toffoli scored in the first period, and Darcy Kuemper recorded 29 saves for Los Angeles.

Hurricanes 2, Blue Jackets 1

RALEIGH, N.C. -- Noah Hanifin scored the go-ahead goal in the second period and Scott Darling stopped 35 shots to snap a five-game winless streak as Carolina defeated Columbus for its third straight victory.

Darling was 0-3-2 in his last five decisions and hadn't won since Nov. 26. Hanifin's sixth goal of the season with 7:02 left in the second is one more than the team's other six defensemen combined. He scored four goals in each of his first two seasons.

Alexander Wennberg scored for the Blue Jackets, who failed to score on the power play in four attempts and are 3 for 38 on the road this season with the man advantage -- 30th in the NHL. Sergei Bobrovsky made 22 saves for Columbus.

Penguins 4, Coyotes 2

GLENDALE, Ariz.-- Olli Maatta's slap shot goal from the left point with 14.5 seconds remaining ended Arizona's comeback and Pittsburgh survived after squandering a two-goal lead.

Evgeni Malkin scored for the Penguins and set up Maatta's goal, and captain Sidney Crosby added an empty-net goal nine seconds later as Pittsburgh ended a three-game slide and beat the Coyotes for the second time this season. Carter Rowney got the Penguins going with a short-handed goal in the second period.

The Coyotes surged back with goals by Nick Cousins and Max Domi before dropping their sixth in a row and ninth in 10 games. Arizona is an NHL-worst 7-23-5 and 3-10-1 at home.

Senators 3, Canadiens 0

OTTAWA -- Craig Anderson stopped 28 shots for his second shutout of the season as Ottawa defeated Montreal in the NHL100 Classic at TD Place.

A crowd of 33,959 braved frigid temperatures for the league's first outdoor game of the season. The win was the second in a row for the Senators, who are trying to dig out of a hole they made during a 1-5-1 road trip.

Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Bobby Ryan and Nate Thompson scored for Ottawa. Carey Price stopped 35 shots in goal for the Canadiens.

Rangers 3, Bruins 2 (OT)

BOSTON -- Mats Zuccarello scored a power-play goal 1:56 into overtime, giving New York a victory over Boston.

The Bruins, who had erased a two-goal deficit to force OT, were called for their second too-many-men penalty of the game to set up the winner. Zuccarello, getting the puck in the right faceoff circle, waited, waited and, with Chris Kreider serving as a screen, fired a wrist shot over the shoulder of Tuukka Rask for the win, ending Boston's three-game winning streak.

Henrik Lundqvist made 33 saves in the Rangers' goal to raise his career record against the Bruins to 27-12-2. Rask made 25 saves but saw his personal five-game winning streak snapped as Boston fell to 15-10-5.

Oilers 3, Wild 2

SAINT PAUL, Minn. -- Second-period goals by Milan Lucic and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins helped Edmonton snap Minnesota's four-game win streak.

Cam Talbot, who had missed the previous seven games with an undisclosed injury, made 29 saves for the Oilers, who got the third-period game-winner from Jesse Puljujarvi.

Defenseman Matt Dumba scored twice for the Wild and Alex Stalock had 26 saves, as the Wild lost a regulation game at home for the first time since Nov. 4 after going 7-0-1.

[StarDust Bum]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )

date w-l-t % units record

12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50

Totals..........27 - 33........45.00%............-46.50

best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units

12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50

Totals..........................11 - 11..................-5.50.......................... .10 - 10...............-5.00

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 15 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Seahawks kept Todd Gurley under wraps early in their first meeting this season with the Rams. Will they be able to repeat the performance with a number of key defensive starters sitting out?

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+7, 41)

The Ravens passing attack had been impotent for most of the season but Joe Flacco seems to have gotten back on track. Baltimore is third last in passing yards per game at 179.8 but the club has aired it out for more than 260 yards in each of its last two contests. The added element has helped the Ravens score 44 and 38 points in back-to-back efforts.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened as 7.5-point favorites but most shops have dropped the number to a touchdown spread. The total opened at 40 and has gone up a point to 41.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The Browns are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games.
*The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Browns.

Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)

The Packers get back the most important player in the league according to NFL oddsmakers. Multiple bookmakers have told us that Aaron Rodgers is worth up to 10 points to a spread. The quarterback is making his return for Green Bay after a seven-game absence.

Bettors need to ask – would the Packers have been 13-point road underdogs if Brett Hundley were starting instead of Rodgers?

LINE HISTORY: The line has been all over the place because of Rodgers’ return. Some books had the Panthers at one point this week giving six and other shops opened with the Packers as just 1-point road underdogs. Most shops are settling around a field goal spread. The total opened at 45 and has gone up to 47.

TRENDS:

*The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-11, 42)

The Bengals fired their offensive coordinator after Week 2 but their attack is beginning to peter out again. Cincinnati ranks 32nd in total offense and 28th in scoring offense after the club was held to seven points in last week’s loss to the Bears.

There doesn’t seem to be any type of successful halftime adjustments being made by the coaching staff. Last week was the third time this season Cincy was shut out in the second half of a game and the squad is last in the league in scoring in the final two quarters with an average of just 5.5 points per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened between 10.5 and 11-point home favorites and the line has stayed put for the most part.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with losing records.
*The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-15.5, 47.5)

It’s now the Bryce Petty show in New York. The Jets third-year player is the next man up after starting quarterback Josh McCown broke his left hand. Petty’s performances as a pro haven’t been pretty. He completed just two of nine pass attempts for 14 yards in relief duty last week when McCown left the game – and that was with offensive coordinator John Morton keeping the kid gloves on for Petty.

LINE HISTORY: The books installed the Saints as 14.5-point chalk, bumped them up as high as 16 and now list the line at Saints -15.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 5-2 in the Jets’ last seven games.
*The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11, 38)

Jags starting running back Leonard Fournette is questionable to play on Sunday because of a hamstring injury. Jacksonville is 2-0 straight up and against the spread in the two games it played this season with its rookie running back but those victories did come against the Colts and Bengals.

The Jags hadn’t been double-digit faves in 10 years but oddsmakers have them giving 10 or more points for the second time in three weeks. Jacksonville won 30-10 as a 10-point home fave against the Colts two weeks ago.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with the Jags installed as 12.5-point favorites but just about every location has the spread at 11 points. The total opened at 39.5 and has been bet down to 38.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against AFC South opponents.
*The under is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six games.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (+7.5, 40.5)

Carson Wentz will be missed by Eagles backers but maybe not against a team like the Giants. The Eagles own the second best rushing offense in the league while the Giants own the 31st ranked run defense. Running back Jay Ajayi is averaging 7.0 yards per carry since the Dolphins traded him to Philadelphia.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the Eagles giving eight points. Most shops now list Philly as 7.5-point chalk. The total is holding around 40 points.

TRENDS:

*The Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
*The Eagles are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games against the G-Men.
*The under is 8-2 in the Giants’ last 10 home games.

Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4, 41)

The Redskins offense has dropped off a cliff in recent weeks. Washington has scored just 28 points in its last two games after averaging 23.5 points over its first 11 games of the season.
Injuries to their offensive playmakers could be the root problem. Tight end Jordan Reed was placed on the injury reserve joining running backs Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson along with wideout Terrelle Pryor on the list.

Left tackle Trent Williams and receiver Ryan Grant are also listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Cards.

LINE HISTORY: The big movement on this game’s odds happened on the total. Oddsmakers opened with the over/under line set at 44 and it’s now down as low as 41.

TRENDS:

*The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
*The over is 25-9 in the Redskins’ last 34 games overall.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3, 39)

Miami backers might want to slow their roll regarding last week’s win over the Patriots. Jay Cutler had his best game in a Phins uniform and Tom Brady played his worst game of the season. The Dolphins didn’t allow a single New England third down conversion and won the time of possession battle 36 to 24.

The Dolphins haven’t been as explosive on the road this year. They’ve been outscored by a combined 91 points in five away games this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as 3.5-point home faves but the line came down a half point to make the game a field-goal spread.

TRENDS:

*The over is 4-0 in the last four games between Miami and Buffalo.
*The over is 12-3 in the Bills’ last 15 home games.
*The over is 7-1 in the Dolphins’ last eight games.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2, 47.5)

The last time the Rams and Seahawks played Pete Carroll’s defense locked up LA running back Todd Gurley to 50 yards on 16 offenses touches. Of course in that game, Seattle had defensive starters Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman and K.J. Wright. Chancellor and Sherman are out and Wright is listed as doubtful.

Gurley is the center of the Rams’ offense. He’s accounted for 13 of the team’s 35 offensive touchdowns and he’s second in the league behind Le’Veon Bell for total yards gained from scrimmage with 1637.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Seahawks favored by a point and the line has crept a up to Seattle -2. The total opened at 48 and is now at 47.5 at most locations.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
*The under is 15-5-1 in the last 21 games between these two teams.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 45)

The 49ers’ offensive line will have its hand full going against the Titans pass rush. Tennessee sacked Arizona quarterback Blaine Gabbert eight times last week and has 20 QB-takedowns over the last three games. San Francisco is tied for the seven most sacks allowed this season with 39.

LINE HISTORY: The 49ers opened as 2-point home chalk but the line is dropping closer to a pick’em as we get closer to game day.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games.
*The under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last six games.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5, 54.5)

The last time the Steelers were home underdogs was the last time they played the Patriots. New England was a 7.5-point fave at Pittsburgh last season but that was with Landry Jones – not Ben Roethlisberger starting under center.

Quarterback Tom Brady has thrown 24 TD pass compared to just three interceptions in nine career regular season games against the Steelers.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at Pitt +2 and the action seems to be on the Pats as the line slowly creeps to the field goal mark.

TRENDS:

*The Pats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last four games.

Dallas Cowboys at Oakland Raiders (+3, 45.5)

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has been instructed to “let it rip” from his head coach and offensive coordinator. The coaching staff says Carr has opted for the conservative pass option too often this season. Those instructions should be music to the ears of over bettors.

LINE HISTORY: Dallas opened as 2-point chalk and is a 3-point fave heading into Sunday. The total can be found between 45.5 and 46.5.

TRENDS:

*The Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
*The under is 5-1 in the Cowboys’ last six games.

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SNF - Cowboys at Raiders
December 15, 2017

The Cowboys have one more week to go until star RB Ezekiel Elliott returns, but it may be late to save their season. With only three games to go, and outside looking in at the playoff picture, Dallas (7-6 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) visits Oakland (6-7 SU, 4-8-1 ATS) Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC). The Raiders are the lowest rated among the Cowboys three remaining games. Dallas comes in as steady 3-point favorites.

Prior to Elliott serving his six-game suspension, the Cowboys had won and covered three straight with Elliott rushing for 390 yards and scoring six TDs. But without him, they'd lose their next three, and badly. They didn't score more than 9 points in any of the three. The promising 2017 season was going down the drain. Jerry Jones was/is fuming.

However, in their last two they've got the offensive attack going with a 38-14 win against the Redskins and a 30-10 win at the Giants last week. Sure, those wins were against the worst defense in the NFL and one of the worst, but the promising thing is that QB Dak Prescott finally started feeling comfortable without Elliott. Their defense also played much better with LB Sean Lee back healthy and controlling the unit. Dallas gets another weak defense Sunday night.

The Raiders had a lackluster 26-15 loss at Kansas City last week with the offense sputtering once again. Ever Sunday watching the Raiders I say to myself QB Derek Carr can't play worse than last week, but then he does. He's been off all season and he'll be without WR Amari Cooper for the second straight game. Last season he was the most exciting player in football to watch. This season, he's almost fallen to the stinky depths of the Andy Dalton zone.

Most important of all is that the Raiders don't cover, or at least often. They've gone an awful 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. That's bad if you bet them like lots of people did early in the season, but it's awesome if you've been betting against them lately.

Both these teams come in trending Under. Dallas has stayed Under in four of its last five and the Raiders have stayed Under in their last four. The total here is 46.

LINE MOVEMENT

Back in May when CG Technology sports books opened lines on every game for the first 16 weeks, they posted this game a pick 'em. This was of course before the Cowboys got hosed by the league when suspending Elliott for six games. It's also before we knew the Raiders would look no where close to last seasons 12-4 squad.

When CG books re-opened the number Sunday night, they posted Dallas 2.5-point road favorites. On Monday it went to -2.5 (-120) and then later in the evening up to -3. The total hasn't moved at 46. The best money-line price on the Cowboys is laying -155 at almost every book. The best price on the Raiders is +145 at Caesars Palace and Wynn Resorts.

HOW THEY BETTING IT?

The early action between William Hill's 107 sports book across Nevada is very telling at what will follow with the masses over the weekend. Of all the wagers on the point-spread for this game, 81 percent of the tickets and 89 percent of cash wagered has been on the Cowboys. Just for some popularity perspective, the Patriots have 88 percent of their cash bet in their clash at Pittsburgh and the Falcons have 89 percent for their Monday night game at Tampa Bay.

WHERE IS THE NUMBER GOING TO GO?

With this being a Sunday night game, the action is going to be large. And despite both teams struggling at times, they're both two of the most popular franchises in football which transcends well through the bet windows. It's going to take substantial public action to move this game off of -3, and it doesn't appear to be an attractive game for sharps to lay. Wynn and Boyd Gaming both have Dallas -3 (-115), an indication straight bet wagers are showing.

This should be a spot where sharps gladly take the home dog at +3 (-105 or EVEN), but they're not biting yet, nor jumping on the money-line. Moving forward, this number will most likely go up than down which means bet the Cowboys sooner than later and or wait for Raiders +3.5 after the first two waves of Sunday games to post which magnifies the Sunday night liability.

ROBERTS' RATINGS

I have the Cowboys 1.5-point better than the Raiders on a neutral field and home field advantage for Oakland is worth almost 2.5-points making my raw number Raiders -1. Next week I'll add 2 points onto the Dallas rating when Elliott is back in the lineup. He's the most important RB to the number in the NFL.

RECENT MEETINGS

These two usually hook up for a preseason game and often work out against each during training camp. They haven't met in a regular season game since 2013 where Dallas (-10) won at home 31-24. Prior to that in 2009, Dallas (-13.5) beat them at home again, 24-7.

SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS - per Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook

Total TD Passes By Dak Prescott: 1.5 OV -140
Total Rushing Yards By Alfred Morris: 70.5
Total Passing Yards By Derek Carr: 265.5
Total TD Passes By Derek Carr: 1.5 OV -135
Total QB Sacks By Both Teams: 3.5 OV -135
Cowboys Total Points Scored: 24.5
Raiders Total Points Scored: 21.5

HOW DO RAIDERS MAKE PLAYOFFS?

Sitting at a junky 6-7, Oakland's best chance is by winning their remaining three games (DAL, at PHI, at LAC) and hope for the Ravens (currently seeded No. 7) and Bills (No. 6 seed) to have some issues. Kansas City failures would also be helpful and the Week 17 game at the Chargers (No. 8) could be for the division title. Current No. 5 seed Tennessee (8-5) also shouldn't feel so cushy with a playoff berth. The Ravens, Bills and Titans are all equally mediocre. Basically, for the Raiders to get in, it's "Just win, baby!"

HOW DO COWBOYS MAKE PLAYOFFS?

Dallas has to look at all those junk teams fighting for the final two AFC slots and hating their NFC situation even more. They're currently sitting in 10th with only six NFC teams advancing to postseason play. No. 8 Detroit and No. 9 Green Bay are also 7-6. The Falcons (No. 6) and Seahawks (No. 7) are both 8-5. Aaron Rodgers comes back this week and Elliott returns next week.

After this week, the get a visit from the Seahawks and then travel to Philadelphia for the finale. A desperate Seattle squad at home is tough and even though the Eagles may rest all the key starters, Philly is going to play well also. This is certainly a tougher road than Oakland.

EARLY WEEK 16 LINES

The Westgate posted early lines Tuesday for next week and opened the Cowboys -3 (-120) at home against the Seahawks. The Raiders play Monday night, on Christmas Day, at Philadelphia where the Eagles are -7.5. There are two games on Monday night (Steelers -8 at Texans, 4:30 pm ET).

SUPER BOWL ODDS

After being considered one of the favorites to win it all after amazing 2016 seasons, now with their playoff lives hanging by a thread they're both 100/1 to win the Super Bowl. The Raiders have the easier road, but less chance based on skill. Dallas could win anywhere on the road with Elliott, but making playoffs is another story. By the way, the Vikings are currently 8/1 to win the Super Bowl which will be played in U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s 6-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 15 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -3 (595)

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2 (621)

4) New England Patriots, -3 (670)

3) Los Angeles Chargers, even (719)

2) Kansas City Chiefs, even (750)

1) San Francisco 49ers, -2 (765)

Record of top 6 picks each week: 42-42

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 17
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR -3.0
O 47.0

NYJ at NO 01:00 PM
NYJ +16.5
U 47.0

CIN at MIN 01:00 PM
CIN +12.5
U 42.5

BAL at CLE 01:00 PM
CLE +7.0
O 41.5

HOU at JAC 01:00 PM
JAC -10.5

PHI at NYG 01:00 PM
PHI -7.5
O 40.5

MIA at BUF 01:00 PM
BUF -3.5
U 40.0

ARI at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS -4.0
U 40.0

********************

STL at SEA 04:05 PM
STL +1.5
O 47.5

NE at PIT 04:25 PM
NE -2.5
O 53.0

TEN at SF 04:25 PM
SF -2.5
U 44.5

*****************

DAL at OAK 08:30 PM

OAK +3.0

O 46.0

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 15
December 17, 2017


Monday, Dec. 17

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 8:30 p.m. EST. This is the second meeting between the teams in four games, with the Falcons (8-5) having won the last time 34-20 in Atlanta as Julio Jones caught a season-best 12 passes for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers (4-9) hope to play spoiler, with the first of three games against NFC South rivals to end the regular season.

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STARS

Passing

- Blake Bortles, Jaguars, threw three touchdown passes, including two to seldom-used backup Jaydon Mickens, and for a season-high 326 yards as Jacksonville clinched a playoff spot with a 45-7 rout of Houston.

- Cam Newton, Panthers, passed for 242 yards and four touchdowns, and the Panthers spoiled Aaron Rodgers' return from a broken collarbone with a 31-24 win over the Green Bay Packers.

- Nick Foles, Eagles, threw four touchdown passes in his first start replacing the injured Carson Wentz, leading Philadelphia to a first-round playoff bye with a 34-29 victory over the New York Giants.

- Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers, threw for a career-high 381 yards and a touchdown to help San Francisco top Tennessee 25-23.

- Drew Brees, Saints, completed 26 of 36 passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns, and also was intercepted in New Orleans' 31-19 win over the New York Jets.

- Eli Manning, Giants, passed for a season-high 434 yards with three touchdowns in New York's 34-29 loss to Philadelphia.

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Rushing

- Todd Gurley, Rams, rushed for 152 yards and three touchdowns on 21 carries and caught three passes for 28 yards and a score to lead Los Angeles past Seattle 42-7.

- Mark Ingram, Saints, ran for two touchdowns and gained 151 yards from scrimmage, capped by his late 50-yard TD run, and New Orleans beat the New York Jets 31-19.

- Le'Veon Bell, Steelers, rushed for 117 yards and added another 48 receiving in Pittsburgh's 27-24 loss to New England.

- LeSean McCoy, Bills, scored twice and became the 30th player to reach 10,000 yards rushing, helping Buffalo beat the Miami Dolphins 24-16.

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Receiving

- Keelan Cole, Jaguars, had seven receptions for a career-high 186 yards and a TD in Jacksonville's 45-7 victory over Houston.

- Rob Gronkowski, Patriots, returned from a one-game suspension to finish with nine receptions for 168 yards in New England's 27-24 win at Pittsburgh.

- Greg Olsen, Panthers, caught nine passes for 116 yards and a TD to help Carolina top Green Bay 31-24.

- Sterling Shepard, Giants, had 11 receptions for 139 yards and a score in New York's 34-29 loss to Philadelphia.

- Jerick McKinnon, Vikings, caught seven passes for 114 yards in a 34-7 win over Cincinnati for the first 100-yard receiving game for a Minnesota running back since Onterrio Smith in 2004.

- Michael Thomas, Saints, had nine receptions for 93 yards and a touchdown in New Orleans' 31-19 win over the New York Jets.

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Special Teams

- Robbie Gould, 49ers, made a winning 45-yard field goal as time expired - his sixth successful kick of the game - to help lift San Francisco over Tennessee 25-23.

- Philadelphia Eagles became the first team since 1991 to block a field goal, extra point and punt in the same game, accomplishing the feat in a 34-29 win over the New York Giants.

- Sam Koch, Ravens, booted four punts inside Cleveland's 20-yard line, giving him a league-high 37 this season, and helping Baltimore to a 27-10 win.

- Phil Dawson, Cardinals, accounted for all of Arizona's points in a 20-15 loss at Washington with field goals of 40, 35, 19, 34 and 32 yards.

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Defense

- Brandon Williams, Ravens, recovered a fumble forced by Za'Darius Smith and shimmied across the goal line for a 1-yard score in Baltimore's 27-10 win at Cleveland.

- Eric Kendricks, Vikings, returned an interception 31 yards for a touchdown in Minnesota's 34-7 victory over Cincinnati.

- Aaron Donald, Rams, sacked Russell Wilson three times in Los Angeles' 42-7 rout of Seattle.

- Anthony Lanier, Redskins, had two sacks, a forced fumble and batted down three passes in Washington's 20-15 win over Arizona.

- Cameron Jordan, Saints, batted down four passes - three on third-down throws - in New Orleans' 31-19 win over the New York Jets.

- James Bradberry, Panthers, stripped the ball from Packers wide receiver Geronimo Allison with 1:28 left to seal Carolina's 31-24 win.

- Chandler Jones, Cardinals, earned his NFL-leading 15th sack of the season in Arizona's 20-15 loss at Washington and is two shy of setting the franchise single-season record.

- Sean Smith, Raiders, intercepted two passes in Oakland's 20-17 loss to Dallas.

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STREAKS & STATS

Jacksonville clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2007 with a 45-7 drubbing of AFC South rival Houston on Sunday. It was the Jaguars' seventh victory in its last eight games. ... Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer won his first regular-season meeting against his old boss, Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis, who lost to a former assistant for the first time in eight matchups, 34-7. Zimmer was the defensive coordinator for the Bengals from 2008-13. ... The Bengals have never won in six all-time visits to Minnesota. ... After Baltimore's 27-10 victory over Cleveland, Joe Flacco's .895 winning percentage against the Browns is the third best by an active quarterback against any opponent. Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger is 21-2 (.913) against Cleveland and New England's Tom Brady is 27-3 (.900) against Buffalo. ... Los Angeles' Todd Gurley had 152 yards rushing, three TD runs and a TD catch in a 42-7 win at Seattle, joining Marshall Faulk (Oct. 20, 2002) as the only Rams in franchise history to have 150 or more yards rushing, three or more rushing TDs and a TD catch in a game.

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MILESTONES

New Orleans' Michael Thomas had nine catches for 93 yards in the Saints' 31-19 win over the New York Jets, giving him 94 receptions this season and making him the second NFL player with at least 90 receptions in each of his first two seasons - the other being the New York Giants' Odell Beckham Jr. ... Buffalo's LeSean McCoy reached 10,000 career yards rushing on his 2,145th carry, becoming the fifth-fastest player in NFL history to achieve the milestone. The only players to reach 10,000 career rushing yards in fewer attempts are Jim Brown (1,936), Adrian Peterson (2,004), Barry Sanders (2,020) and O.J. Simpson (2,085). ... Carolina's Cam Newton has four seasons with at least 600 rushing yards, tying him with Michael Vick for the most such seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. ... The Panthers' Julius Peppers had a half-sack against Green Bay, making him the fourth player in NFL history to have at least 10 seasons with 10 or more sacks, joining Hall of Famers Bruce Smith (13 seasons), Reggie White (12) and Kevin Greene (10). ... Jimmy Garoppolo became the first 49ers quarterback since the merger in 1970 to win each of his first three starts, and just the second QB to do so in franchise history. Y.A. Tittle did so spanning the 1951-52 seasons. ... Oakland's Derek Carr joined Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck as the only players with at least 100 TD passes in their first four years in the NFL.

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TICKETS PUNCHED

Philadelphia, which had already clinched the NFC East, secured a first-round bye with a 34-29 win over the New York Giants. ... Minnesota beat Cincinnati 34-7 and locked up the NFC North title. It marks the second division title for the Vikings in the past three seasons. ... New England, which defeated Pittsburgh 27-24, secured the AFC East title. It's the ninth consecutive division title for the Patriots (2009-17), the longest streak in NFL history. ... Jacksonville defeated Houston 45-7 and clinched a playoff berth - the Jaguars' first since 2007.

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RODGERS' RETURN

Aaron Rodgers made his first appearance since Oct. 15 and threw for 290 yards with three touchdowns, but was intercepted three times in Green Bay's 31-24 loss to Carolina. For a moment it looked as if the two-time league MVP was about to lead the Packers back from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit. But a fourth Green Bay turnover - this time a fumble by wide receiver Geronimo Allison with 1:48 left - spelled doom. Rodgers had good velocity on his passes at times, and even ran for a few first downs in his first game back from a broken collarbone.

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BLOCK PARTY

Philadelphia became the first team to block a field goal, extra point and punt since 1991, doing it against the New York Giants in a 34-29 victory. Derek Barnett blocked Aldrick Rosas' extra point attempt in the first quarter, Kamu Grugier-Hill knocked away Brad Wing's punt in the second, and Malcolm Jenkins prevented Rosas' 48-yard attempt in the fourth. The last team to accomplish the feat was Buffalo against New England on Nov. 24, 1991.

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STEPPING IN

Nick Foles threw four touchdown passes in his first start replacing the injured Carson Wentz, and helped the Philadelphia Eagles secure a first-round playoff bye by beating the New York Giants. Foles was 24 of 38 for 237 yards and no interceptions. The Eagles also became the first team since the 2011 Green Bay Packers with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn to have different starting quarterbacks throw at least four touchdown passes in back-to-back weeks. ... Bryce Petty made his first start at quarterback for the New York Jets, completing 19 of 39 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown in a 31-19 loss at New Orleans. He was intercepted twice - once by Craig Robertson on a tipped pass and once by Marshon Lattimore on a long, inconsequential throw as the game ended.

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BAD BROWNS

The Browns (0-14) went 0-8 at home - 0-7 in Cleveland, 0-1 in London - for the second time and must win at either Chicago or Pittsburgh to avoid joining the 2008 Detroit Lions in the notorious 0-16 club. Last season, the Browns avoided infamy by winning their final home game and finishing 1-15. Cleveland is 1-29 in two seasons under coach Hue Jackson, who is expected to be back despite his .033 winning percentage.

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DROUGHT BUSTERS?

Buffalo improved to 8-6 to match the team's best record through 14 games during the team's 17-year playoff drought - the longest active streak in North America's four major professional sports. The Bills were 8-6 in both 2004 and 2014, but missed the playoffs with 9-7 finishes. Buffalo's 6-2 home record was its best finish at Orchard Park since 1999. The Bills now hit the road to continue their playoff pursuit in closing the season at New England next week and then at Miami on Dec. 31.

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DOWNED SEAHAWKS

Seattle's 34-0 halftime deficit in its 42-7 loss to the Los Angeles Rams was the largest for the Seahawks since the 2010 season - the first under Pete Carroll - when it trailed the New York Giants 35-0 at halftime on the way to a 41-7 loss. It was the largest halftime lead in a road game for the Rams in franchise history.

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SIDELINED

Pittsburgh wide receiver Antonio Brown left the Steelers' 27-24 loss to New England in the second quarter with a left calf injury. Brown was helped to the medical tent, then taken to a hospital for further examination. Also, Pittsburgh rookie running back James Conner left with a sprained knee in the fourth quarter. ... The Patriots lost running back Rex Burkhead with a knee injury in the first half. He did not return. ... Green Bay wide receiver Davante Adams left in the third quarter of the Packers' 31-24 loss at Carolina because of a concussion. ... Jets defensive lineman Leonard Williams left in the third quarter against New Orleans with concussion symptoms. ... The Giants had safety Landon Collins and linebacker B.J. Goodson leave against Philadelphia after aggravating ankle injuries. ... Jacksonville wide receiver Marqise Lee injured his right ankle in the first quarter against Houston and was later ruled out.

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SPEAKING

''It's a story of perseverance.'' - Jaguars owner Shad Khan after the Jaguars clinched their first postseason berth since 2007 with a 45-7 drubbing of AFC South rival Houston on Sunday.

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''I'm not running from this. I have never gone any place and left it worse than when I found it. I'm not going to run from this. I'm going to be here and I need to get this fixed as fast as I can because I think it is important.'' - Cleveland coach Hue Jackson after the Browns fell to 0-14 with a 27-10 loss to Baltimore.

[StarDust Bum]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )

date w-l-t % units record
12/17/2017 12-9-2 57.14% +10.50
12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50

Totals..........39 - 42........48.14%............-36.00

best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units

12/17/2017................4 - 3 - 1..................+8.50.........................5 - 4 - 1..............+3.00
12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50

Totals..........................15 - 14..................+3.00......................... . 15 - 14...............-2.00

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 15 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Dallas Cowboys, -3 (595)- T

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2 (621)- W

4) New England Patriots, -3 (670)- T

3) Los Angeles Chargers, even (719)- L

2) Kansas City Chiefs, even (750)- W

1) San Francisco 49ers, -2 (765)- T

Record of top 6 picks each week: 44-43-3


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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Patriots 27, Steelers 24— NFL needs to fix its catch rule; it lacks common sense, but lets be real- Steelers could’ve kicked a FG on the next play and gone to OT. They gambled on the last play and it blew up on them the same way it blew up on Seattle in their Super Bowl loss to NE.

Steelers converted 10-16 on 3rd down, outgained Patriots 413-360; they had 63 penalty yards, New England had 4 penalty yards. Four. This was the 3rd time in their last five games that New England had either one or two accepted penalties. Go figure.

Patriots are now 13-2 vs spread coming off their last fifteen losses.

Rams 42, Seahawks 7— Rams scored five TDs in this game, none on scoring drives longer than 47 yards; LA won field position by 24 yards, ran ball for 244 yards and totally dominated Seahawks’ offensive line. This was the Rams’ biggest game since 2003, and they came up huge.

Rams haven’t clinched anything yet, but they look to be headed to the #3 seed in NFC. As for the Seahawks, Pete Carroll has to get them ready to play in Dallas Sunday- they’ll need help to make the playoffs, but they ain’t dead yet. Carroll has a lot of coaching to do this week.

Jaguars 45, Texans 7— Jacksonville is in the playoffs for the first time in 10 years, outgaining Houston 464-186 in this game. Jaguars won seven of last eight games, are right now the #3 seed in AFC- they visit Chargers, Titans in last two games.

As for Houston, games like this get coaches fired, but O’Brien/Watson were a potent combo when the rookie QB was healthy. Will be interesting to see if Texans bring O’Brien back in 2018, seeing how they’re 1-7 in their last eight games.

Cowboys 20, Raiders 17— In what was basically an elimination game between storied franchises, Dallas survived, thanks to winning a 4th down measurement by a millimeter, and then when Oakland QB Carr fumbled trying to stretch the ball over the goal line in the last minute- the ball went into the end zone for a touchback.

Favorites are 13-0 SU this week (Chiefs/Rams closed as pick ‘em), 10-2-1 vs spread.

Eagles 34, Giants 29— Eli Manning passed for 434 yards, but Philly won for 11th time in last 12 games, with two short TD drives of 20-18 yards. Eagles clinch a first-round bye in the playoffs; they were outgained 504-331 here, but they won field position by 11 yards and Nick Foles won his first start this season- he is 21-16 as an NFL starter. Philly is now 9-2 in its last 11 games vs the Giants in the Garden State.

49ers 25, Titans 23— Niners won four of last five games after an 0-9 start; Garoppolo is first QB since Ben Roethlisberger to win his first five NFL starts. Titans-Bills-Ravens are in 3-way tie for the two AFC Wild Card slots- the last two weeks are going to be fun.

Titans close with Rams/Jaguars at home; Ravens close with Colts/Bengals, Buffalo plays New England and Miami. Six of last eight Tennessee games were decided by 5 or less points.

Next summer, 49ers will be a fashionable Cinderella pick in the NFC- the media loves John Lynch, the 49ers’ new GM. And now SF has its quarterback of the future.

Panthers 31, Packers 24— Broken collarbones take 12 weeks to heal, whether its Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone or your collarbone or mine. He came back in eight weeks, was 26-45/290, with 3 TD’s, 3 INTs. You throw three INTs, you usually lose.

Carolina has won six of its last seven games; they close with the Bucs/Falcons. With Green Bay pretty much out of it now, do they play Rodgers the last two games, or let his collarbone heal fully and let Brett Hundley play the last two games?

Speaking of the Panthers, 81-year old owner Jerry Richardson will sell the team after news got out that he has paid off a few Panthers’ employees after they were harassed by Richardson, who has had a heart transplant and is the only NFL owner who also played in the league.

Steph Curry tweeted that he is interested in buying into the Panthers.

Vikings 34, Bengals 7— Minnesota clinches the NFC North by clubbing a disinterested Bengals team that will have a new coach next season. Cincy was outscored 67-14 in their last two games.

It is easy to criticize Marvin Lewis because he never won a playoff game (0-7) in Cincinnati, but he is also 123-119-3 as coach of the Bengals. Cincinnati’s three coaches before Lewis combined to go 52-124 from 1992-2002.

Wonder what odds you could’ve gotten in August for Case Keenum as NFL’s MVP?

Bills 24, Dolphins 16— Tennessee’s loss to the 49ers is a big boost to Buffalo’s playoff chances; Bllls were +3 in turnovers here, allowed only one TD in Miami’s three red zone drives and now they are 8-6. Miami came to western New York on a short work week and now they’ve been outscored 144-54 in their last four road games.

Home teams are 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season.

Buffalo might want to practice clock management; they led 24-6 in 4th quarter, but Miami had the ball with 0;35 left near midfield, down 24-16, in what would’ve been an epic choke by Buffalo, which was snapping the ball with 0:10-0:20 left on play clock with 7-8 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Need to milk that play clock for every second you can when you’re protecting a 4th quarter lead.

Saints 31, Jets 19— Saints/Carolina are tied atop NFC South, but Saints swept Carolina. so they control own destiny. New Orleans has rematch with the Falcons this week; they’ve won their last six home games. Jets lost seven of last nine games. Saints had 7 plays of 20+ yards; they have 41 in their last six games.

Redskins 20, Cardinals 15— Hard to win when you don’t score a touchdown; Arizona is only team this week not to score an offensive TD- they had ball in the red zone six times, kicked five FG’. Cardinals ran 80 plays to Washington’s 47, but only gained 286 yards, completing only 16-41 passes. Washington was out-rushed 497-192 in its last three games.

Ravens 27, Browns 10— Baltimore won four of last five games; they’re in 3-way tie for two AFC Wild Cards, but right now, they’re odd team odd. Good news is that they close with couple of lame duck coaches, playing Colts/Bengals to finish season out.

Baltimore had a 17-yard edge in field position, as Browns are now 1-29 the last two years- they are 3-11 vs spread this year. From sounds of things, USC’s coaches should be happy Cleveland is so terrible; USC QB Sam Darnold doesn’t want to play there, may stay in school another year.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, December18

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ATLANTA (8 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 9) - 12/18/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog this season.
TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 18

ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Atlanta


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Monday's game
Falcons (8-5) @ Buccaneers (4-9)— 8-5 Falcons won four of last five games, are game behind Saints/Panthers in NFC South- they play those teams the last two weeks. Atlanta is 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road favorites. Tampa Bay lost three in row, eight of last nine games; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-2 as home underdogs. Buccaneers haven’t led at halftime since Week 4. Atlanta (-10) beat Bucs 34-10 at home three weeks ago; Falcons converted 11-14 on 3rd down, averaged 10.2 yds/pass attempt. Tampa Bay won three of last four series games- teams split last six series games played here. Home side is 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 8-2 in last ten Falcon games, 4-2 in Bucs’ last six games.

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6, 47.5)

Falcons' drive-extension prowess vs. Buccaneers' third-down troubles

The Atlanta Falcons' quest to return to the Super Bowl hit a major speed bump in a five-week span earlier in the season - but the defending NFC champions have returned to form at the right time as they look to rise to the top of the competitive South division with a win Monday night at Tampa. The Falcons have won four of five and are coming off a critical 20-17 win over rival New Orleans; they also come into this one with a sizeable edge when it comes to third-down situations.

The Falcons were no doubt aided by an early injury to electrifying Saints running back Alvin Kamara, but they were still facing a formidable New Orleans defense - and they did exactly what they had to do, controlling the clock (34:41 time of possession) thanks in large part to a 7-for-12 showing on third down. That's nothing new to Atlanta, which leads the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.4 percent and has been even more effective over the last three games, converting at a 52.8-percent clip.

That bodes poorly for a Buccaneers team that has completely unravelled on third-down defense this season after leading the NFL in that category last season. Tampa Bay is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on a whopping 48.3 percent of third-down situations, after posting a 34.4-percent mark in 2016. The Lions extended the Bucs' misery by going 5-for-11 on third down in Sunday's win, and Tampa Bay would be fortunate to hold Atlanta to a similar success rate in the Monday nighter.
Last edited by StarDust Bum; 12-14-2017 at 09:25 AM.

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Monday, December 18

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Game 331-332
December 18, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
139.335
Tampa Bay
129.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 5
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-5); Over

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NFL

Thursday, December 14

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Falcons at Buccaneers
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, 49)

The Atlanta Falcons are in control of their playoff destiny and their chances to repeat as NFC South champions, but they also have a pack of teams nipping at their heels for the final postseason spot in the conference. A winner of four of its last five, Atlanta visits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night in a rematch from three weeks ago.

The Falcons are one game behind NFC South co-leaders New Orleans and Carolina but still have to play the Saints and Panthers, giving them a chance to claim the division title by winning their final three games. “Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.” Atlanta, which currently holds the tiebreaker over Seattle for the No. 6 seed in the NFC, beat visiting Tampa Bay 34-20 on Nov. 26, but the Buccaneers were without quarterback Jameis Winston, who will be making his third start since returning from injury. Winston rallied Tampa Bay from a 14-point deficit last week before Tampa Bay lost to Detroit 24-21 in the final minute -- its third straight defeat and eighth in 10 games.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-2) - Buccaneers (5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -4.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as six-point road chalk and as of Sunday evening that number was up slightly to 6.5. The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and had been bet up as high as 49.5 before dropping to the current number of 48.

WEATHER REPORT: during the game it will drop from 71 to 67 degrees and will be mostly cloudy with 4-5 mph winds throughout - no chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Falcons - WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Knee), DE Adrian Clayborn (Questionable, Hamstring), G Wes Schweitzer (Questionable, Groin), G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), TE Eric Saubert (Questionable, Back), RB Tevin Coleman (Out, Concussion), S Quincy Mauger (I-R, Knee).

Buccaneers - S TJ Ward (Probable, Concussion), G J.R. Sweezy (Questionable, Shin), TE Cameron Brate (Questionable, Hip), OT Donovan Smith (Questionable, Shoulder), DT Clinton McDonald (Questionable, Back), CB Josh Robinson (Questionable, Hamstring), C Joe Hawley (Questionable, Illness), CB Vernon Hargreaves (Out, Hamstring), DT Gerald McCoy (Out, Bicep), LB Lavonte David (Out, Hamstring).

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Despite surpassing 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive year, Julio Jones was having a relatively quiet season by his lofty standards until torching Tampa Bay for 12 catches for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns -- his second and third scores of the campaign. Jones also had eight catches for 101 yards and a score at Tampa Bay in November 2016 as quarterback Matt Ryan riddled the Buccaneers for 344 yards and four touchdowns passes. Devonta Freeman has rushed for 165 yards in two games since returning from a concussion and could be in line for a heavy workload with backup Tevin Coleman in the concussion protocol. Adrian Clayborn (hamstring), who leads the team in sacks, did not practice Thursday, but coach Dan Quinn is moving Vic Beasley back into a pure pass-rushing role.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Winston, who threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns last week to erase a 14-point deficit, enjoyed plenty of success last season against Atlanta, throwing for 542 yards with seven scores against one interception. Wideout Mike Evans has been practically invisible the past two games with a combined four catches, but he had eight receptions in last month's loss to the Falcons and lit them up for 16 catches for 249 yards and three touchdowns in both meetings last season. With Doug Martin continuing to struggle, Peyton Barber has provided a jolt to the ground game with 160 yards rushing over the past two contests. Tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David missed practice, putting more pressure on a defense that surrenders a league-worst 276.1 yards passing.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.

* Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.

* Over is 10-0-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.

* Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Falcons at a rate of 71 percent and the Over is getting 56 percent of the totals action.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Playoff chases front and center in Week 16
Patrick Everson

“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly.”

Week 16 of the NFL regular season has some key games on tap, but because of how Week 15 is playing out, many sportsbooks aren’t yet posting lines on those matchups. However, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu, Everson still gets you a little insight on a quartet of contests with playoff implications.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (no line)

New Orleans lost its first two games of the season, but has only lost twice since then to stand tied with Carolina atop the NFC South. The Saints (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) were massive 16.5-point home favorites against the New York Jets on Sunday and were never covering that number, but got a 31-19 victory.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta still has Week 15 work to do before Bookmaker.eu can set the line on Falcons-Saints. Atlanta (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS), which travels to Tampa Bay for the Monday nighter, just hosted the Saints a week ago, notching a 20-17 home win as a 2.5-point chalk.

“If there are no major injuries Monday evening, and the Falcons win, we’ll look to make the Saints around 4-point chalk for this big divisional matchup,” Cooley said. “The public will continue to play New Orleans, and we know every Joe Bettor and his dog will be on the over.”

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+7)

Los Angeles is looking very much like the real postseason deal heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. The Rams (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) steamrolled Seattle 42-7 as a 1-point road fave in Week 15 and now have complete control of the NFC West.

Tennessee would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but needs better results than it got in Week 15 to stay in that position. The Titans (8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) lost to San Francisco 25-23 on a last-second field goal, though they cashed as a 2.5-point road pup.

“Marcus Mariota just isn’t playing at the same level he was before the injury earlier this season,” Cooley said. “He’s gutting it out weekly, but he’s a shell of his former shelf, which has caused a drastic downgrade for Tennessee in our ratings. Early action has come on the Titans, dropping the spread a half-point.”

That move put the line at Rams -6.5.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (no line)

Green Bay got Aaron Rodgers back for Week 15, and while he led a valiant late rally at Carolina, he also threw three interceptions. That doomed the Packers (7-7 SU and ATS) to a 31-24 loss catching 3 points on the road, and likely ended their playoff hopes.

Meanwhile, Minnesota had no problem dispatching Cincinnati on Sunday. The Vikings (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) led 24-0 at halftime and cruised to 34-7 home win laying 12.5 points.

This is another line that Bookmaker.eu has put on hold.

“We really have to wait and see what the Packers decide to do with Rodgers,” Cooley said, pointing to the fact that if Atlanta beats Tampa on Monday night, Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention. “The Packers might be home underdogs to this great Vikings squad either way, but are certainly a healthy ‘dog if Brett Hundley is back under center. If the Falcons win Monday, we don’t expect to see Rodgers the rest of the year.”

This NFC North clash is in prime time on Saturday, with an 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (no line)

Dallas is clinging to postseason life, but might get a little defibrillation this week, with star running back Ezekiel Elliott returning from his six-game suspension. The Cowboys (8-6 SU and ATS) went off as a 3-point chalk at Oakland on Sunday night and pushed with a 20-17 victory, sealed when Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled inside the 2-yard line in the final minute.

Seattle is also on the outside looking in for the moment, thanks to that aforementioned beatdown suffered at the hands of the Rams. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) could still reach the playoffs, but may need some help getting there after that dismal 42-7 loss to L.A. as a 1-point home ‘dog.

With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, Bookmaker.eu will wait to post this number until Monday.

“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly,” Cooley said. “The Seahawks were badly exposed Sunday, but we will certainly expect their best effort here. We’ll need some sharp action on the underdog to offset the square money that will come on the Cowboys.”

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 18
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at TB 08:30 PM

TB +7.0

U 49.5

[StarDust Bum]

Winston's play offers silver lining for Bucs
December 19, 2017

TAMPA, Fla. -- Statistical performances are small consolation for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are playing out the string in a lost season.

However, after yet another defeat -- a 24-21 decision against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night that wasn't clinched until Patrick Murray's 54-yard field-goal attempt sailed wide right as time expired -- the Buccaneers (4-10) were encouraged by the play of quarterback Jameis Winston.

Bucs coach Dirk Koetter said Winston played his best game of the season -- and maybe his career.

Winston was 27 of 35 for 299 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers for a 130.5 passer rating, the second-best mark of his three-season career.

Giveaways had been a huge concern for Winston, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2015 draft, who had 53 turnovers in his previous 42 NFL games.

On Monday, though, he was efficient and resourceful.

"Jameis was big time," Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan said.

Winston said, "I'm very happy with the way that we competed. We came up short, (but) everyone played their tails off. It's a good team, but we had some unfortunate things again happen tonight, some injuries, but we've got to get the lunch pail and get the shovel and start digging."

Winston threw touchdown passes to tight end O.J. Howard (30 yards), receiver Mike Evans (42) and receiver Adam Humphries (16).

"Jameis was very, very sharp tonight," Koetter said. "He took care of the ball, was accurate, checked down."

Winston said, "We have to get the competitors the football. Mike Evans is a competitor. Cam Brate (tight end) is a competitor. It's my job to get them the football. That was easy."

Winston regretted not getting more on Tampa Bay's final drive, which reached Atlanta's 36-yard line. Murray, who made 14 of 16 attempts heading into the game, was asked to convert a 54-yarder. He missed.

"We were looking for the 35-yard line, but we trust Pat," Winston said. "Pat has been clutch for us all year. I hate it for the game, but he's the man. He's going to bounce back harder than ever. I wish we could have gotten him some more yardage to be able to give him a better opportunity."