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**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2017, 02:39 AM

Monday Night Football Best Bets:

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/30/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/29/2017 10-8-0 55.56% +6.00
10/26/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............49 - 49 - 3....50.00%....-24.50

Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/30/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...........1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/29/2017................4 - 2..................+9.00..........2 - 2...........-1.00.............+8.00
10/26/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...........1 - 0...........+5.00............-0.50
10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50
10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50
10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50
10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50
10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00
10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00
10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50
10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00
10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50
10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals......................16 - 15 - 3............-2.50...........16 - 16...........-8.00................- 10.50

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 1 .................................+7.50

**StarDust Bum** · 10-31-2017, 02:43 AM

Tuesday’s six-pack
— World Series has been tied 2-2 42 times; the Game 5 winner won 28 of those 42 World Series.
— Knicks 116, Denver 110— Porzingis had 38, Knicks are fun to watch. I wonder why?
— Celtics 108, Spurs 94— San Antonio lost its last three games.
— Warriors 141, Clippers 113— Game was 74-57 at half; Clippers had been #1 in defense.
— Chiefs 29, Broncos 19— Broncos are now 0-3 on the road; their QB’s are substandard.
— Happy birthday to former LSU hoop coach Dale Brown, who turns 82 today.

**************************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……

13) New England traded backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers last night for a 2nd-round pick next April, but the 49ers’ 2nd-round pick figures to be the 33rd pick, pretty much a first round pick. Patriots don’t have a backup QB on their roster right now; would they be the team that signs Colin Kaepernick?

12) Following Twitter during the baseball game Sunday night was funny; people are so fickle, they overreact quickly and in a 13-12, 10-inning game, there is a lot to comment on.

11) One thing the great baseball game obscured was a pretty good football game in Detroit; Lions were putrid in red zone, scoring 9 points on five drives. Steelers’ JoJo Schuster-Smith caught a 97-yard touchdown pass, right after the Lions were stuffed on a goal-line stand by Pittsburgh.

10) Astros’ payroll this year is $124,343,900, broken down this way:
— Justin Verlander makes $28M a year, but he was only in Houston for a month, so his money isn’t included in the $124M figure you see up above.
— Other four starting pitchers made a combined $17,239,500 this season.
— Catcher Brian McCann makes $17M, DH Carlos Beltran makes $16M
— Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick made a combined $27.4M this season.
— Altuve/Springer/Correa/Bregman earned a combined $9.661,900 this season.

At some point, Astros have to shed some of these hitters and add pitching, or else we’re in for an endless stream of 13-12 playoff games. Gurriel/Reddick’s contracts seem excessive, Altuve is going to break the bank when he hits free agency (his agent is Scott Boras)

Seems logical that out of Correa/Springer/Bregman, two of them will wind up elsewhere.

Verlander is on the books for 2018 and 2019, both at $28M a season.

9) Detroit Lions gained 482 yards Sunday night but didn’t score a TD; only 1994 Bengals (496 yards vs Seattle) and ’86 49ers (501 yards) gained more yards without scoring a touchdown.

8) Washington Nationals named Dave Martinez manager; he has been Joe Maddon’s right-hand man for several years……….Phillies named Gabe Kapler skipper- both guys are first-time major leaguer managers.

7) ESPN’s Mike Breen also does play-by-play for the Knicks on MSG Network; he is the best at what he does because he is fair and smart.

Monday night, Knicks’ Doug McDermott took a 3-pointer in transition with 0:06.9 left in first quarter; he made it, but Denver came down an hit a 3-pointer of their own at the buzzer to end the quarter. Breen simply said: “That is why coaches like to hold the ball to take the last shot of a quarter, so the other team can’t score.”

6) Boston Celtics got an $8.4M salary cap exemption because of Gordon Hayward’s injury; they have to use it by March 10.

5) College basketball starts next week; Missouri Valley Conference is going downhill, with both Creighton/Wichita State jumping ship in recent years. Missouri State/Illinois State are expected to be the Valley’s frontrunners this winter.

4) Houston Texans traded disgruntled LT Duane Brown to Seattle, for CB Jerome Lane, a 5th round pick next year and a 2nd round draft pick in 2019.

3) You wonder why baseball teams coddle pitchers? Because they only last so long— look at the career of Fernando Valenzuela— from age 19-25, Valenzuela was 99-68, with an ERA of 2.94- he threw 257+ innings five years in a row. He was box office gold, for sure.

From age 26-36, he went 74-85, with an ERA of 4.55, bouncing around between five teams. You only have so many pitches in your arm. Valenzuela threw 149 pitches in a playoff game when he was 20. If that happened today (it wouldn’t), heads would roll.

2) Ticket brokers apparently own 15,000 tickets to both Games 6-7 of the World Series; should Houston win Game 6, those brokers would lose out of a potential $20M in profits with no Game 7 to benefit from.

1) RIP Lewis D’Antoni, 103, who passed away this weekend; the father of Rockets coach Mike and Marshall coach Dan D’Antoni, Lewis D’Antoni was a coach himself— I saw him interviewed in the stands at a Marshall game a couple years ago, when he was 101. Lot of energy even then; he lived a full life. RIP, sir.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:16 AM

Thursday’s six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

— Jets are 17-7 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.

— Chiefs are 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 games.

— Oakland covered once in its last six games.

— 49ers covered nine of their last 11 divisional games.

— Houston is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Eagles covered nine of their last eleven games.

***************************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) This is what it looks like when an NBA player works at his game:

In the first eight years of his career, Brook Lopez shot a combined 3-31 shooting behind the arc; he is a 7-foot tall center, so that makes perfect sense. You don’t want 7-footers shooting 3’s, you want them closer to the basket.

Then last year, out of nowhere, Lopez was 134-487 (34.6%) behind the arc. Good for him— he worked on his game, and developed a 3-point shot. Still not sure why you would want him that far from the basket, but it makes pick/pops an option.

Lopez is also a career 79.4% shooter from the foul line, so good for him- he works at his job.

12) Greg Anthony/Steve Smith were doing analysis on the Pistons/Lakers game Tuesday, from the NBA TV studios; they were killing Detroit PG Reggie Jackson for not passing the ball enough, then praising his backup Ish Smith when he came in the game.

Don’t hear a lot of criticism like that; Pistons had just beaten Golden State Sunday, but losing to the Lakers wasn’t good. Detroit looked flat.

11) I was very surprised to learn that Toronto PG Kyle Lowry makes $30M a year; hope he buys his agent a Ferrari or a Maserati every Christmas. Toronto has never been in the NBA Finals and Lowry makes $30M a year? Good for him. The NBA is very, very profitable.

10) Brock Osweiler is starting at QB for the Broncos Sunday in Philadelphia.

9) Patriots signed former 49ers QB Brian Hoyer to be Tom Brady’s back-up. Green Bay also tried to sign Hoyer.

8) Cornerback Jeremy Lane failed his physical with the Houston Texans, so he gets sent back to the Seahawks, and the 5th-round draft pick Seattle sent to Houston in the Duane Brown trade becomes a 3rd-round pick.

7) Georgetown’s pre-conference basketball schedule doesn’t have one team on it ranked in the preseason top 25; their pre-conference schedule last year had four top 25 teams on it.

6) wish.com has a patch on the Lakers’ uniforms this year; they’re an on-line shopping site. They said on Pistons-Lakers telecast that wish.com is paying $15M for the patch to be worn this year.

5) Interesting Fact of the Day: Cleveland Browns were going to give Cincinnati more for AJ McCarron that what the Patriots got for Jimmy Garoppolo.

4) Tuesday night’s World Series Game 6 got the highest TV rating of any World Series game since 2009, so thats good for baseball.

3) This was first time since 2001-2 that consecutive World Series went to a 7th game.

2) There are rumors swirling that if the Buccaneers fire Dirk Koetter, they might bring Jon Gruden back to coach in Tampa Bay, which would be more than a little weird.

1- Astros 5, Dodgers 1— In June of 2014, Sports Illustrated had an issue with a cover that said “2017 World Champions” with a picture of George Springer batting in the Astros’ throwback rainbow jersey.

From 2011-13, Houston went 162-324; they were incredibly bad, but they parlayed all that losing into players like Altuve-Correa-Springer-Bregman; now they’re World Champs, winning one of the most interesting World Series in recent memory.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:19 AM

NFL opening line report: Unpredictable Panthers open as slight faves over Falcons in Week 9
Patrick Everson

"No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league."

We’re heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, and the whole Ezekiel Elliott situation is still not resolved, which is forcing oddsmakers to tap the brakes a bit. Everson takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (no line)

Dallas still had Elliott’s services Sunday, and he delivered in a big way on the highway. The star running back racked up 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping the Cowboys (4-3 SU and ATS) top Washington 33-19 as a 3-point favorite. Elliott’s Week 9 status is uncertain at this point.

Kansas City still has some Week 8 work to do, hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday night. The Chiefs (5-2 SU and ATS) got out of the box 5-0 SU and ATS, then lost at home to Pittsburgh and at Oakland.

“The Elliott situation will keep this game a bit muddled until we get clarity on his availability,” Cooley said. “As well, we’ll want to wait and see how the Chiefs fare Monday night. If nothing changes and these teams come into this great matchup as is, then Dallas will be a short favorite.”

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)

Atlanta still doesn’t look like the team that reached the Super Bowl last year, but at least Matt Ryan and Co. put a three-game SU and ATS skid in the rearview mirror. The Falcons (5-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) held off the New York Jets 25-20 on Sunday, though they again failed to cash as a 6.5-point chalk.

Carolina has been up-and-down all season, as well, but ended a two-game hiccup in Week 8. The Panthers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) dropped Tampa Bay 17-3 as a 1.5-point road underdog.

“No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league,” Cooley said. “Atlanta pulled out a quality win this week, but certainly something is amiss with the team. My best guess is that we’ll see some Falcons money, especially from the public, which I think we’d be happy with.”

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)

Philadelphia might well be the league’s No. 1 team, certainly by looking at the standings. The Eagles (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have won six and a row and cashed five straight, plowing past San Francisco 33-10 laying 13 points at home Sunday.

As noted above, Denver still has to take a stern Week 8 test on Monday night in Kansas City. The Broncos (3-3 SU and ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four outings, losing the last two in embarrassing fashion. Denver was a 13.5-point home favorite against the New York Giants and lost outright 23-10, then got bageled at San Diego 21-0 giving 1 point.

“Two teams quickly trending in opposite directions,” Cooley said. “The Eagles look like the NFC’s best team, and we’ll see if Denver can save some face Monday night and get back on track a bit. If nothing outrageous happens to the Broncos on Monday, we’ll open them around touchdown ‘dogs at Philly.”

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

It took nearly half the season, but Seattle finally caught up to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) won a wild one Sunday against Houston, getting a Jimmy Graham touchdown catch in the waning seconds to claim a 41-38 home victory as a 6-point chalk.

Washington is competitive every single week, yet finds itself with a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS record. The Redskins were within 26-19 Sunday against visiting Dallas, but Kirk Cousins threw a last-minute pick-six, cementing a 33-19 loss as a 3-point pup.

“Unfortunately, the injury bug just keeps biting for Washington,” Cooley said, alluding primarily to the Redskins’ battered offensive line. “But Jay Gruden is a great offensive mind, and he was able to keep his team in the game with half an O-line against Dallas. The public doesn’t back off Seattle, even if the Seahawks aren’t at their best, so we wanted to be generous with this number, especially considering the state the Redskins are in.”

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:20 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9
Monty Andrews

Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent.

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 39.5)

Bengals QB protection issues vs. Jaguars' sack-happy defense

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been the most consistent team in football this season, but they remain very much in the hunt for the AFC South title as they host the Cincinnati Bengals. Jacksonville's four victories have come by at least 21 points, and they're coming off a much-needed bye week following a 27-0 rout of Indianapolis a week earlier. Yet, as impressive as the Jaguars offense has been at times, it's the defense - which has a sizeable advantage this week - that could lead this team to a division crown.

The Bengals' offensive line has struggled to protect quarterback Andy Dalton so far this season, giving up sacks on better than nine percent of dropbacks - the fourth-worst rate in the league. Cincinnati has surrendered 22 total sacks through its first seven games, while their 48 passes defended rank behind only the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals allowed a sack on just 6.8 percent of their dropbacks last season, and their eight interceptions thrown match their entire 2016 total.

Dalton isn't likely to get much relief this weekend against a Jaguars pass rush considered one of the best in the sport. In addition to recording four defensive touchdowns, 10 interceptions and nine forced fumbles, Jacksonville leads the NFL with a whopping 33 sacks - six more than the second-place Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have produced a sack on 12.3 percent of opposing dropbacks so far this season, miles ahead of the 5.7-percent rate they recorded last season.

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (+3.5, 42)

Rams' drive-extension prowess vs. Giants' third-down doldrums

The Rams carry a two-game winning streak into Sunday afternoon's encounter with a Giants team that might already be looking toward next season. Los Angeles is coming off a bye following Week 7's 33-0 dismantling of the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, and still boasts one of the league's top offenses as we near the midway point of the season. One of the main reasons: An elite third-down offensive showing that runs in stark contrast to the Giants' inability to sustain drives.

Led by an emerging star in quarterback Jared Goff, the Rams have been sensational at keeping the football, converting nearly 49 percent of their third-down opportunities - the best rate in the NFL. Los Angeles went a stunning 13-for-19 on third downs in the one-sided win over the Cardinals, allowing it to retain possession for more than 39 minutes. It's a complete 180-degree turn for the Rams, who finished dead last in 2016 by converting just 31 percent of their third-down chances.

The Giants can sympathize with last year's version of the Rams - in more ways than one. With just one win in its first seven games, New York is off to a nightmare start - and its third-down troubles are a part of that. The Giants have earned a first down or points on just 32.6 percent of their third downs; only San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland have been less prolific. And with Eli Manning down to just a few worthwhile offensive options, that number could dip even further.

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 44)

Broncos' red-zone struggles vs. Eagles' relentless offense

You can't often make the case that a Week 7 game is "must-win", but the Broncos can ill afford to risk falling another game behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West as they visit the red-hot Philadelphia Eagles. Denver comes into the week having lost three in a row, and will need to improve its red zone offense if it has any hope of overtaking the Chiefs atop the division. And even that might not matter against an Eagles team that has been one of the NFL's most dangerous inside its opponents' 20-yard line.

The Broncos are 2 1/2 games back of Kansas City following Monday's 29-19 loss to the Chiefs, and their red-zone offense is at least partly to blame for Denver's recent struggles. The Broncos converted 1-of-3 red-zone trips into touchdowns in the loss to Kansas City, and has scored TDs from inside the opponents' 20-yard line at a 44-percent rate; only Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Arizona have been less prolific in the red zone.

Meanwhile, what a difference a year has made in Philadelphia. Last season, the Eagles managed a touchdown on less than 50 percent of their red-zone visits; fast-forward to 2017, and they come into Week 9 ranked second in red-zone touchdown rate at 68 percent. And there's a good chance of that trend continuing, given that the Eagles have converted on 87.5 percent of red-zone trips over their past three games, and are scoring red-zone touchdowns at a 76.9-percent pace at home.

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)

Redskins' dynamite discipline vs. Seahawks' flag follies

The Washington Redskins have a difficult task ahead of them as they venture to hostile CenturyLink Field for an NFC encounter with the Seattle Seahawks. Washington has just one win over its first three road games, and adding to that total will be tough against a Seattle team that has won each of its first three home games. But Washington might have an equalizer: A pattern of disciplined play that could come in handy against the penalty-happy Seahawks.

Washington has been on its best behavior through seven games, incurring just 38 total penalties for a league-low 291 yards against. The Redskins have been particularly disciplined when they have the ball, picking up as scant 13 offensive penalties for 105 yards. Even in Sunday's 33-19 home defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Washington was charged with just five penalties for 32 yards while drawing eight flags for 89 yards against the visitors.

The Seahawks are running neck-and-neck with the Rams for NFC West supremacy, but they'll need to work on their discipline moving forward. Seattle has been flagged an NFL-high 66 times on the season, while the 534 total yards they've surrendered via penalty are sixth-most in the league. The Seahawks also rank last overall in penalty flag differential (minus-22) and penalty yard differential (minus-156). If that trend continues, Washington could make a game of it.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:21 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 2

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BUFFALO (5 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 5) - 11/2/2017, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 5

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DENVER (3 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (7 - 1) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (5 - 2) at NY GIANTS (1 - 6) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 179-227 ATS (-70.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 128-179 ATS (-68.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-61 ATS (-31.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 62-36 ATS (+22.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (4 - 3) at CAROLINA (5 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 6) at HOUSTON (3 - 4) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at TENNESSEE (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 29-51 ATS (-27.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 8) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (3 - 4) at SEATTLE (5 - 2) - 11/5/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 3) - 11/5/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 50-81 ATS (-39.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
MIAMI is 41-17 ATS (+22.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 6

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 65-91 ATS (-35.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 183-129 ATS (+41.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:22 AM

NFL

Week 9

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 2

BUFFALO @ NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
NY Jets is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Sunday, November 5

INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home

ATLANTA @ CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 21 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
NY Giants is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams

DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
San Francisco is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Arizona

WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home

OAKLAND @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Oakland

Monday, November 6

DETROIT @ GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:25 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

— Carolina covered twice in its last ten home games.

— Buffalo is 5-1-1 vs spread in its last seven games.

— Colts are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a divisional road underdog.

— Bengals covered once in last six tries as a road underdog.

— Arizona is 4-14 vs spread in its last 18 games.

— Denver is 9-17 as a non-divisional road underdog.

***************************

Thursday’s six-pack

NFL trends with Week 9 approaching…….

— Jets are 17-7 vs spread in last 24 games as a home underdog.

— Chiefs are 10-3 vs spread in their last 13 games.

— Oakland covered once in its last six games.

— 49ers covered nine of their last 11 divisional games.

— Houston is 10-3-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Eagles covered nine of their last eleven games.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:26 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game
Bills (5-2) @ Jets (3-5)— Buffalo is +14 in turnovers; they’ve had 3+ takeaways in their last four games. Bills are 1-2 on road, with all three games decided by 6 or less points. Jets lost last three games by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 39-13 in 2nd half of those games. Last time Jets trailed at halftime was Week 2. Gang Green is 3-0 allowing 20 or less points, 0-5 when they allow more than 20 points. Buffalo (-8) beat Jets 21-12 in season opener, outrushing Jets 190-38, converting 8-17 on 3rd down; Bills are 6-2 in last eight series games, but lost five of last seven visits here. Three of last four Jet games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-7 vs spread. Since 2014, Buffalo is 1-5-1 vs spread as a road favorite.

Sunday's games
Broncos (3-3) @ Eagles (7-1)— Tough scheduling spot for Broncos, who played in Kansas City Monday night- this is their third week in row on road. Denver lost its last three games, scoring 10-0-3 points; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 10-21-10 points. In their last four games, Broncos scored xx points on xx red zone drives- their WR’s killed them in KC with dropped balls. Philly won last six games, covered last five; they’re 3-1 vs spread as home favorites, winning home games by 3-27-10-23 points. Home side won last six series games; Denver won last meeting 52-20 in ’13. Broncos lost five of six visits to Philly, with only win in ’86. Over is 4-2 in last six Eagle games. NFC East teams are 2-5 vs spread as non-divisional home favorites; AFC West underdogs are 4-2.

Rams (5-2) @ Giants (1-6)— Rams won four of their last five games; they’re 3-0 in true road games, winning by 2-5-10 points, winning at SF-Dallas-Jax. Giants are 0-3 at home, scoring 10-22-7 points in losses to Lions-Chargers-Seattle. NY is 0-3 in games decided by 5 or less points. Both teams coming off their bye; Giants won seven games in a row against the Rams- they won 17-10 in London LY. Giants’ last loss in series was 15-14 in St Louis in ’01. Giants are 7-2 in last nine post-bye games; Rams are 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 post-bye games. Over is 5-2 in Ram games. NFC West teams are 7-12 vs spread outside their division; NFC East teams are 11-9, 3-6 at home.

Buccaneers (2-5) @ Saints (5-2)— New Orleans won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 2-1 at home this year, winning by 14-8 points with loss to Patriots. In three games since their bye, NO ran ball for average of 151.7 ypg, taking heat off defense/Brees. Tampa Bay lost its last four games; they’re 0-3 on road, losing by 17-5-3 points, allowing 34 ppg on road- they’re 2-5 and were favored in 5 of the 7 games. Last two games, Bucs’ opponents converted 18 of 33 3rd down plays. Saints are 9-2 in last 11 games with Tampa, winning five of last six meetings played here. Four of last five Saint games stayed under total; four of Bucs’ last six games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 6-10-2 vs spread.

Bengals (3-4) @ Jaguars (4-3)— Jax is 4-3 but just 1-2 at home; they haven’t allowed 2nd half TD in their last three games (33-6). Jaguars ran ball for 169-188 yards in last two games; check status on Fournette’s ankle. Jags are 23-42 on 3rd down in last three games. Bengals won three of last four games after an 0-3 start; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 3 at Green Bay, 15 at Pitt- they won at Cleveland. Cincy is -10 already in turnovers; they haven’t been plus in TO’s in any game this season. Bengals won last four series games, last three all by 10+ points; they’re 3-7 in Jacksonville, winning 30-20/27-10 in last two visits. Jaguars are 6-1 vs spread (4-3 SU) in last seven post-bye games. Four of last six Jaguar games went over total.

Falcons (4-3) @ Panthers (5-3)— This is 3rd week in row on road for Falcons, historical soft spot for NFL teams. Atlanta snapped 3-game skid with rainy win in New Jersey LW; they’re 3-1 on road, with only loss 23-7 in Foxboro- they won at Bears-Lions-Jets. Carolina’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD in its last two games, but their offense has only scored two TD’s, and gave up two in 17-3 loss at Chicago. Panthers are 1-2 at home, with only win 9-3 over Buffalo; they’re -8 in turnovers in three losses, +1 in their wins. Panthers averaged less than 5 yards/pass attempt in each of last 3 games. Atlanta won its last three games with Carolina by 7-15-17 points; they hammered Panthers twice LY, 48-33/33-16. Teams are 7-7 in last 14 series games played here.

Colts (2-6) @ Texans (3-4)— Rookie QB Watson is tearing NFL apart; Texans scored 33+ points in their last five games, scoring 21 TD’s on their last 60 drives. Six of their last 11 TD plays were 20+ yards. Houston is 2-2 at home, 1-1 as a home favorite. Colts lost last three games despite a +3 TO ratio in those games- they’re 0-4 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 37-28-1-14 points. Indy allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in four of their last five games, but their offense has also given up five TD”s to opposing defenses this year. Houston won three of last four series games, but Colts won three of last four visits here, albeit with Luck at QB. Last five Houston games went over, as did five of last six Indy games.

Ravens (4-4) @ Titans (4-3)— Titans are off a bye, Ravens are off a Thursday win, so two rested teams here. Baltimore allowed 17 or less points in its four wins, with a +10 turnover ratio- they allowed 24+ in their losses, with a -5 turnover ratio. Ravens are 2-1 in true road games, with only loss 24-16 in Minnesota- they won at Cincy/Oakland. Tennessee scored only six TD’s on 46 drives in their last four games, but they won last two games, holding Colts/Browns to one TD on 19 drives. Titans are 2-1 at home- they scored 33+ points in 3 of their 4 wins- they’re 1-3 when scoring less than 33, with a 12-9 win over the Browns. Tennessee is 2-5 in its last seven post-bye tilts. Teams split last eight series games; their last meeting was in 2014. AFC South non-divisional hone teams are 5-3 vs spread. Only one Raven game was decided by less than 8 points.

Cardinals (3-4) @ 49ers (0-8)— Stanton gets his first start of year at QB for Arizona; he is 8-5 as an NFL starter, 6-3 with Redbirds. Cardinals won five games in a row vs 49ers; they beat SF 18-15 (-6.5) in OT in first meeting in Week 4, scoring only TD of game on pass to Fitzgerald in last minute of OT. Arizona won 19-13/33-21 in last two visits here. 49ers traded for Garoppolo Monday but he won’t be ready here; 49ers lost last two games by combined 73-20; they’re 5-3 vs spread, 1-2 as a home underdog this year, with home losses by 20-2-30 points. Arizona won three of last four post-bye games. Over is 3-1 in 49ers’ last four games, under is 5-1 in Arizona’s last six games. Arizona allowed 30+ points in its last three games.

Redskins (3-4) @ Seahawks (5-2)— 8 of 15 TD’s Seattle allowed this year came on plays of 20+ yards; they’re susceptible to big plays, as Texans showed Sunday, but they’ve also won their last four games (3-1 vs spread). Only 5 of 17 Redskin TD’s have been on plays of 20+ yards. Washington had three new starters on OL last week; they’re 1-2 on road, losing by 9 in KC, 10 in Philly- this is their first game on artificial turf this year. Seahawks added LT Brown in a trade Monday; they’re 3-0 at home, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-28-3 points. Seattle ran ball for just 66.3 ypg in last three games. Seattle won four of last six series games; three of those four wins were playoff games. Redskins won last two visits here, but last one was in 2011.

Chiefs (5-2) @ Cowboys (4-3)— Ezekiel Elliott’s 6-game suspension starts here; how does that change the Dallas offense? Chiefs won division game Monday night; they’re 3-1 on road, losing 31-30 at Oakland- they won at Foxboro-Chargers-Houston, scoring 34.5 ppg. Dallas scored 40-33 points in winning both its game since their bye- they allowed 42-35-35 points in their three losses, are 4-0 when allowing less than 35 points. Over is 5-1-2 in Chief games, 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four games. Chiefs franchise started out as the Dallas Texans in 1960; they’re 1-4 at the Cowboys, with only win in ’75- their last visit here was in ’05. NFC East teams are 3-6 vs spread at home when they venture outside the division.

Raiders (3-5) @ Dolphins (4-3)— Oakland lost five of last six games, losing last three games on road, by 17-6-20 points. Raiders scored 26+ points in their wins, 17 or less in their five losses. Miami is 4-3, but they’ve scored total of six points in losses by 14-20-40 points. Dolphins played on Thursday LW, so they’ve got time to rest. Cutler is expected back at QB here; Miami is 2-0 at home, with home wins by 6-3 over Titans/Jets, giving up 10-28 points. Miami won five in row, 8 of last 9 meetings with Oakland; their last meeting was in London in ’14. Raiders lost 7 of last 8 visits here- their last win in Miami was in ’07. Under is 5-2 in Dolphin games, 1-3 in last four Oakland games. AFC East teams are 12-7-1 vs spread outside their division.

Monday's game
Lions (3-4) @ Packers (4-3)— Detroit is a frustrating team; they didn’t score TD LW vs Steelers, week after their OFFENSE gave up three TD’s in a 52-38 loss in Superdome. Lions lost 22 of last 23 visits to Lambeau Field, but door in ajar here with Rodgers injured. Last time Detroit was favored in Green Bay? 2011, when Rodgers was also hurt— Pack still won, 45-41 on a frigid day. Green Bay scored 10-17 points in losing last two games, averaging 3.8/3.0 yds/pass attempt, as Rodgers’ absence obviously hurts. Lions gained 482 yards LW but didn’t score a TD- they scored nine points on five red zone drives, a putrid performance- Detroit lost its last three games, are 2-1 on road. Packers were outscored 28-3 in second half of their last two games.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:27 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 9 NFL lines are going to move

The Los Angeles Rams are allowing just 11 points per game over their last three contests and are coming off a shutout win over the Arizona Cardinals.

Game to bet on now

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4)

The Jags have quietly and efficiently built the best defense in the league. They’re the best against the pass, first in QB sacks, tops in points allowed and sixth in total yards allowed.

They do give up some yards on the ground, and that’s where the 3-5 Bengals will have to attack in they want to hang in and remain viable in the AFC North.

Oddly, the Jags seem to be worse (1-2) at home than they are on the road (3-1), but that doesn’t mean much considering the small sample size.

Jacksonville needs to keep pace with Tennessee, which has won two straight and appears to be getting better. There’s an opportunity to bet both sides and win both ways (also known as middle) with the line opening at -2 in some books and moving to -4 in others.

Game to wait on

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (+2.5)

The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of nearly nine points a game but somehow have managed to stay afloat in a competitive AFC East division.

Much of their ugly point differential is attributable to that 40-0 turd they dropped at Baltimore, but many teams struggle playing on Thursday night.

At any rate, Miami will benefit from a few extra days of rest and will be facing Raiders team that will be making its second straight cross-country trip to the East Coast.

The problem is at quarterback, where Jay Cutler has been out with a rib injury. He’ll play if he can, but if he can’t go, then Matt Moore (zero TDs, two INTs vs. the Ravens) will be thrown to the wolves again.

It might be a good idea to hang on a bit, as this game might be a PK if there is good news on Cutler.

Total to watch

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (43.5)

Can it get any worse for the Giants? They were out of the playoffs before September was over, their best offensive player (Odell Beckham Jr.) is done for the year and there is talk that it might be time to sit down Eli Manning and get a look at a backup who might be competing for the No. 1 job when training camp starts next summer.

Yikes.

The Giants are one of six teams averaging fewer than 300 total years a game, and appear to be catching the Rams at a bad time. LA is allowing just 11 points per game over its last three contests and is coming off a shutout win over the Cardinals.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:34 AM

Tech Trends - Week 9
November 1, 2017

THURSDAY, NOV. 2
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at NY JETS (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jets on 5-0-1 spread run, though Bills 5-1-1 vs. number in 2017. Jets had lost and failed to cover five straight in series before sweep LY. Jets 5-0 vs. line at home TY.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 5
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos on 3-7-1 spread slump since late LY, also no covers last five on road. Birds 9-3 vs. line at Linc since LY.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli 0-3 vs. line at home TY. Also “under” 16-7 in reg. season since LY. Rams 4-0 SU away TY and 3-1 vs. line, though “over” 7-2 last nine since late last season.
Tech Edge: Rams, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints rolling with five SU wins (4-1 vs. line) in row. Bucs 0-5-1 spread skid, 1-7-1 last nine vs. line.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 0-2 vs. line at home TY (as opposed to 4-1 away), now 1-6 last seven vs. spread at EverBank Field. Jax also “over” 23-12 since early in 2015 season. Cincy only 3-8-1 vs. spread last 12 away (though 2-1 TY), Marvin Lewis also just 2-6 as dog since LY.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on Jags “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs wobbling with no covers last four TY, now on 2-6 spread slump. Also 1-3 vs. line away after 7-1 spread mark as visitor LY. Falcs also “under” 5-2 TY after 16-3 “over” LY. Cam 0-3 vs. line at home TY and 1-6 last seven vs. spread in Charlotte. “Unders” 7-1 last eight meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcs and “under,” based on recent series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 1-4 vs. line last five away from Lucas Oil. Indy also now “over” last five on road, Houston “over” five straight this season, and Texans 5-1 last six vs. line TY.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 2-4 last six vs. line but big wins in those two Ws. But Harbaugh only 3-8 vs. points last 11 away. Titans 6-1 vs. spread last seven at home, “over” 17-8-1 last 26.
Tech Edge: Titans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Niners only 3-8 vs. line at Levi’s since LY. SF also “over” 7-4 since late LY. Big Red 1-6 vs. line TY, 4-13 last 17 on board.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “over,” based on Card woes and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Jay Gruden “over” 22-6 since late 2015. Skins on 4-game spread skid now but still 10-4 vs. line last 14 away.
Tech Edge: "Over” and slight to Skins, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at DALLAS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 14-3 vs. line last 17 in reg. season away from Arrowhead. Chiefs also “over” 6-1 last 7 away. Cowboys 2-5 vs. points last 7 at Arlington, “over” 8-4-1 last 13 at home.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at MIAMI (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Gase 4-2-2 vs. spread last eight at home. Dolphins also “over” two straight TY , 15-8 “over” since LY (3-4 “over” TY). Raid-uhs no covers last 3 away TY after 11-2 vs. points previous 13 in reg.-season away from Coliseum.
Tech Edge: Slight to Dolphins, based on recent trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 6
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack no covers last two since Rodgers went down, had covered 6 of 7 previous at Lambeau. Pack “over” 9-2 last 11 but “under” last two. After losing for firs time since ‘91 at home vs. Lions in 2015, Pack has won and covered last three in series. Stafford “over” 6-3 last 9 reg.-season since late 2016.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 02:37 AM

Thursday's Best Bet
November 1, 2017

NFL Week 9 TNF Best Bet (NFL Network, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

When oddsmakers came out with NFL season win totals in the summer and had the Buffalo Bills at 6.5 and the New York Jets at 3.5, there couldn't have been much enthusiasm around the league for this primetime showcase game to open up Week 9 between the two.

But both AFC East rivals have largely outperformed those projections so far, and after the Bills made the move to go and get WR Kelvin Benjamin at the trade deadline 48 hours before kickoff, this game even has some potential playoff implications attached to it now.

Buffalo is already 1-0 SU and ATS against the Jets after they beat New York 21-12 in Week 1, so will they get the season sweep or will New York step up and outperform oddsmakers lines once again?

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Buffalo (-3); Total set at 43

Buffalo's decision to get WR Kelvin Benjamin was one that's a clear sign the Bills management looked at the current landscape of the AFC this year and decided they were going to “go for it” in terms of a playoff run this year. The Bills organization hasn't been in the playoffs since they lost the “Music City Miracle” 1999 Wildcard game, so fans of this organization are thrilled right now that their team has finally stepped up in 2017 to end this disastrous streak.

The Benjamin addition addresses a clear position of need for the Bills, and while his impact won't likely be huge with his new team on a short week, bettors should expect big things from Benjamin in Buffalo's passing attack going forward.

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Speaking of passing attacks, New York's aerial attack is nowhere near as bad as everyone expected it to be at the beginning of the year. QB Josh McCown is 14th in the league in passing yards (1840 yards), has a 70% completion rate overall, and is 11th in the NFL in TD passes with 11. Those TD numbers have been put up despite two games of not throwing a single TD pass – including Week 1 vs this Buffalo team – but with 9 TD's to only 4 INT's the past four weeks, it seems like McCown has finally found a bit of a groove.

Buffalo's secondary was torched by Tampa's QB Jameis Winston to the tune of 384 yards and 3 TD's two weeks ago, and as home underdogs with revenge on their minds, the Jets would serve themselves well to be a bit more aggressive and air things out a bit more here.

So while most of the talk coming into this game is how it's two weeks in a row with a highly unattractive matchup for a nationally televised game, I am actually quite interested to see how this game plays out. Last week's uninteresting Miami/Baltimore game was billed in a similar fashion – and it was definitely rough to watch at times – that game still cashed 'over' tickets for bettors and I believe this AFC East showdown will do the same.

For one, both teams will find their way onto the scoreboard this week (unlike Miami in Week 8), and although the Jets did lose the first meeting with Buffalo in Week 1, it's not like they didn't move the ball. The Jets are also a much better looking bunch offensively since that Week 1 performance, and with Buffalo being outgained in total yards for six straight weeks – a possible reason to take the points with New York for you side bettors – McCown and company should be able to put 20+ up on the Bills.

Buffalo will be anxious to show off their new offensive weapon in whatever capacity they can, and with a 7-3 O/U run in their last 10 against losing teams, and a 5-1 O/U mark after allowing 14 or fewer points, there are some solid trends backing a high scoring game here. Five of the past seven times these two have played in New York the 'over' has cashed as well, and with a total of 43, it's not like we need a dramatic shootout to get there.

When you add in the angle of division rematch games looking to flip flop the results from the first meeting supporting an 'over' play here, and Buffalo on a 10-1 O/U run as favorites of less then 4 points, I think we see another TNF game that nobody is really excited to watch turn into a relative scoring fest. We've already seen that be the case with Week 3's LA Rams/San Francisco TNF game and last week's contest between Miami and Baltimore.

And even though there has been plenty of talk about how bad short weeks are for NFL players and teams (which they are) it hasn't seemingly affected scoring this year as much as it has in year's past. Including Week 1's season opener between KC and New England, TNF games have a record of 6-2 O/U this year and we should be able to add another 'over' to that tally come Friday morning.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Over 43 points

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 01:07 PM

Week 9 Game Scout: Bills at Jets
November 2, 2017

BUFFALO BILLS (5-2) AT NEW YORK JETS (3-5)

KICKOFF: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium. TV: CBS, NFLN, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson and Jay Feely (field reporters).

SERIES HISTORY: 114th regular-season meeting. Bills lead series, 60-53. The Bills beat the Jets 21-12 on opening day, behind two touchdown passes from Tyrod Taylor and 159 all-purpose yards from LeSean McCoy. Despite winning only five games last season, the Jets swept Buffalo for the first time since 2011. Still, the Bills have won six of the last eight, including two of the last three at MetLife Stadium. This is also the third straight year the teams will meet on a Thursday night; the road teams won the first two, 2015 in New Jersey and 2016 in Buffalo. The only postseason game between the Bills and Jets was in the wild-card round in 1981, a 31-27 Buffalo win at Shea Stadium.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Big news going into this intrastate battle is that the Bills punched up their offense by acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin from the Carolina Panthers for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline. Benjamin has 32 receptions for 475 yards and two touchdowns this season. The move immediately improves the Buffalo passing game. The team doesn't have a single wide receiver with 200 yards after they traded top wideout Sammy Watkins to the Los Angeles Rams before the season. In 40 NFL games, Benjamin has 168 catches for 2,424 yards and 18 touchdowns.

The Bills' defense stifled the Jets on opening day in Buffalo, limiting Josh McCown and Co. to 11 first downs and 214 yards, 38 on the ground. RB Matt Forte was held to 16 yards and, after he complained about his lack of usage last week against the Atlanta Falcons, the Jets might try to get Forte more involved. If that happens, the Bills will be ready as they have been excellent against the run all season, ranking third in the NFL. When McCown passes, the Bills need to put some pressure on because that has not been a strong suit; they rank 29th in sacks per pass attempt.

Buffalo RB LeSean McCoy had a big day in the first game, with 159 yards from scrimmage. After slipping into a four-week funk, McCoy has been dynamic in the last two, totaling 242 yards rushing. The Bills would love to pound the Jets on the ground as New York ranks 27th against the rush and may be playing without DE Muhammad Wilkerson, who is battling a couple of injuries.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Jets TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins vs. Bills linebackers. The Bills did not face Seferian-Jenkins in the opener as he was serving a suspension. Since activated, he has become the Jets' top receiver, with 31 catches, though his average is just 6.5 yards per reception. The Bills' linebackers aren't great in coverage, though, and SS Micah Hyde will have to play a role in covering Seferian-Jenkins.

--Bills RT Jordan Mills vs. Jets DE Leonard Williams. Mills is the weak link on Buffalo's offensive line, and Williams is the stud on the Jets' front, especially with Muhammad Wilkerson slowed by injury. The Jets will rely on Williams to put heat on Tyrod Taylor, and Mills has to hold up. It will also be vital in the run game, too, that Mills at least gets some push on Williams and gets him moving the way he wants.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Bills LB Matt Milano. He has burst on the scene is forging a reputation as a ballhawk in the Bills' defense. He took over as the starter when Ramon Humber went down with a thumb injury in Week 4 against Atlanta. Since then, he has one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and a return for a touchdown, a 40-yarder last week against Oakland. Milano also has been in on 14 tackles, two for lost yardage. The fifth-round pick was expected to be a special-teams player and backup this season, but he has seized the opportunity to play. When Humber returns, possibly in two weeks, coach Sean McDermott may have a tough call to make.

FAST FACTS: The Bills improved to 5-2 with a 34-14 win over Oakland last week. Buffalo is aiming to close the first half of the season with a 6-2 record, which would be the team's best start since 1993 (7-1). ... Buffalo leads the NFL with a plus-14 turnover differential and is tied for the league lead with 17 takeaways. ... Bills S Micah Hyde ranks first in the NFL with five interceptions and has four interceptions in his past four games. Hyde's five interceptions are the most by a Bills player through seven games since Jairus Byrd (five) in 2009. ... Jets QB Josh McCown ranks second in the NFL with a 70.5 completion percentage (179 of 254). McCown has posted a completion percentage of at least 60 percent and thrown multiple touchdown passes in four consecutive games -- making him the first player in franchise history to accomplish the feat. ... Jets WR Robby Anderson had six catches for a career-high 104 yards -- his first 100-yard game -- and a touchdown last week against Atlanta.

PREDICTION: The Bills had enough firepower to jettison the Jets before adding WR Kelvin Benjamin. Home field won't even be much of an advantage for Jets.

OUR PICK: Bills, 35-21.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 05:11 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Thursday, November 2

Buffalo @ NY Jets

Game 307-308
November 2, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.435
NY Jets
135.070
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 3 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Over

Sunday, November 5

Denver @ Philadelphia

Game 451-452
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
130.414
Philadelphia
136.531
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 9
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+9); Over

LA Rams @ NY Giants

Game 453-454
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
135.530
NY Giants
134.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 455-456
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.667
New Orleans
137.064
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7); Under

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville

Game 457-458
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.765
Jacksonville
137.918
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 8
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-4 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 459-460
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.214
Carolina
130.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
Pick
44
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
Under

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 461-462
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
120.260
Houston
140.952
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 20 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 13
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-13); Over

Baltimore @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
November 5, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.796
Tennessee
134.419
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 6 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-3); Over

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 465-466
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
122.638
San Francisco
122.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 2 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2 1/2); Over

Washington @ Seattle

Game 467-468
November 5, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.374
Seattle
135.883
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ Dallas

Game 469-470
November 5, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
140.489
Dallas
133.073
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
Pick
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
Over

Oakland @ Miami

Game 471-472
November 5, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
130.579
Miami
121.724
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 9
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-3); Over

Monday, November 6

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
November 6, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
137.795
Green Bay
130.270
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2 1/2); Over

**StarDust Bum** · 11-02-2017, 05:12 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Bills at Jets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3, 42.5)

The Buffalo Bills aim to grab a share of the division lead while giving the spiraling New York Jets plenty of space in the cellar on Thursday, when the AFC East rivals meet at MetLife Stadium. Buffalo, which is off to its best start since 2008, has won two in a row to remain one-half game behind first-place New England while New York has dropped three in a row following a promising 3-2 start.

Bills rookie coach Sean McDermott was all smiles this week and added he's "extremely proud" of his club but cautioned that "nobody gives out awards for 5-2." Perhaps, but Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin and is third in the league with 115 points allowed, and continued opportunistic defensive play like that could go a long way in helping the team end its 17-season playoff drought. The Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 setback against Atlanta. "Too many mistakes in the fourth quarter," New York coach Todd Bowles told reporters. "Can't happen. Can't put the ball on the ground. Can't have timely mistakes."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Bills (-1.5) - Jets (+3.5) + home field (-3) = Bills -2

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as 3.5-point road favorites and that number was bet down slightly to the key number of 3. The total hit betting boards at 42 and was bumped up a full point to 43 early in the week before dropping slightly to 42.5 on Thursday morning.

INJURY REPORT:

Bills - S J. Poyer (Probable, Knee), G R. Incognito (Probable, Ankle), C E. Wood (Probable, Ankle), CB E. Gaines (Doubtful, Hamstring), TE C. Clay (Doubtful, Knee), LB R. Humber (Out Indefinitely, Thumb), S C. Anderson (Out, Arm), TE K. Towbridge (I-R, Ankle).

Jets - T B. Shell (Questionable, Neck), CB B. Skrine (Questionable, Concussion), CB M. Claiborne (Questionable, Foot), RB M. Forte (Questionable, Knee), DL M. Wilkerson (Questionable, Shoulder), S T. Brooks (Questionable, Hamstring), OL B. Qvale (Questionable, Toe), WR J. Kerley (Questionable, Possible Suspension), FB L. Thomas (Out, Concussion), LB L. Mauldin (Questionable, Back), TE J. Leggett (Out, Knee), CB X. Coleman (I-R, Shoulder), WR C. Peake (Out, Ankle), LB D. Donahue (Out, Elbow), LB E. Robinson (I-R, Groin), TE C. Gragg (I-R, Knee), WR Q. Enunwa (I-R, Neck), S D. Middleton (I-R, Pectoral), CB B. Keeton (I-R, Knee), CB J. Clark (I-R, Knee), WR B. Estime (I-R, Achilles), WR D. Smith (I-R, Knee).

WEATHER REPORT:

Low 60s / minimal winds (6-7mph) / 2% chance of precipitation

ABOUT THE BILLS (5-2 SU, 5-1-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U): LeSean McCoy recorded season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (151) while registering his third touchdown in two games during Sunday's 34-14 romp over Oakland. The versatile 29-year-old added at least six receptions for the fourth time this season and rolled up 159 yards from scrimmage in Buffalo's season-opening 21-12 win over New York. Tyrod Taylor, who has impressed McDermott with a pair of strong performances since the team's bye week, threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns in Buffalo's 37-31 setback against New York on Sept. 15, 2016. The Bills added a jolt to their passing game by acquiring wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-5 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U): Frustrations are mounting as the losses pile up for New York, which saw veteran Matt Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons. Josh McCown, who recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent), has thrown nine touchdown passes in his last four games after being limited to three in his first four. Robby Anderson, who leads the team with 435 receiving yards, has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-1 in Bills last 10 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-1 in Jets last 6 vs. AFC East.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road fave Bills are picking up 64 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 51 percent of the totals selections.

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