The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 8

Thursday, October 26

Miami @ Baltimore

Game 101-102
October 26, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.150
Baltimore
130.370
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3
37
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3); Over


Sunday, October 29

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Game 251-252
October 29, 2017 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
130.722
Cleveland
126.966
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 10 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+10 1/2); Over

Chicago @ New Orleans

Game 253-254
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
131.256
New Orleans
143.244
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 8 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-8 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ NY Jets

Game 255-256
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
135.970
NY Jets
125.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 10 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
46
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-4); Under

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 257-258
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.155
Tampa Bay
130.857
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
Even
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+2 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Philadelphia

Game 259-260
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
125.974
Philadelphia
135.842
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13
47
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+13); Over

Oakland @ Buffalo

Game 261-262
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.705
Buffalo
132.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
Even
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3); Under

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati

Game 263-264
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.022
Cincinnati
130.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 7
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 11
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Under

LA Chargers @ New England

Game 265-266
October 29, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
131.983
New England
140.903
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Under

Houston @ Seattle

Game 267-268
October 29, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
134.180
Seattle
144.655
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-5); Under

Dallas @ Washington

Game 269-270
October 29, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.888
Washington
134.559
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Detroit

Game 271-272
October 29, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.222
Detroit
136.710
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
45
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Under


Monday, October 30

Denver @ Kansas City

Game 273-274
October 30, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
125.392
Kansas City
138.510
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-7); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, October 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview and odds: Dolphins at Ravens
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 37)

Journeyman Matt Moore is fresh off a brilliant comeback performance and now will serve as the starting quarterback when the Miami Dolphins visit the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday. Moore came off the bench after Jay Cutler suffered multiple cracked ribs on Sunday to rally Miami from a 14-point deficit and record a 31-28 victory over the New York Jets.

Moore threw two touchdown passes during a 17-point fourth quarter and brings a more boisterous approach than the introverted Cutler, who could miss multiple contests. "It's an emotional game and I'm an emotional player," Moore told reporters on Tuesday, two days prior to making his 29th career regular-season start. "It's always better when you're having fun. When you're kicking the dirt, that's not the way to do your job. So I try to have a good time." Miami has won three straight games, so it is experiencing better times than the Ravens, who have allowed an average of 27.6 points while losing four of their last five contests. "I wouldn't say it's a must-win," Baltimore safety Eric Weddle told reporters, "but it's definitely a big-time game that we need to try and do everything in our power to win."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Despite all the troubles of the Ravens offense, oddsmakers are still giving them the edge at home, setting the line at Baltimore -3. The line has yet to move off the opening number. The total hit the board at a very low 37.5 and has actually moved down further to the current number of 37.

POWER RANKINGS:[/B] Dolphins (1.5) - Ravens (3.5) + home field (-3) = Ravens -1

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Its going to be hard for the Dolphins and Ravens to match the excitement of last Thursday's Chiefs-Raiders thriller. That doesn't mean its not going to be an interesting game though. The Dolphins come in as the hotter team but the Ravens may well be the hungrier one. I had projected this line to be exactly where it is, so don't find a whole lot of value with the side. If the line moves off three, I'll be taking a closer look. Getting the Ravens at less than -3 (doubtful) would provide some value, while the Dolphins would start looking more interesting if the line climbed above four." - Ben Burns

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - QB Jay Cutler (Out Thursday, ribs), DT Jordan Phillips (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Anthony Steen (Questionable Thursday, foot), DE Andre Branch (Questionable Thursday, groin), WR DeVante Parker (Questionable Thursday, ankle), C Mike Pouncey (Probable Thursday, knee), T Ja'Wuan James (Probable Thursday, hand), TE Julius Thomas (Probable Thursday, knee), RB Jay Ajayi (Probable Thursday, knee), T Laremy Tunsil (Probable Thursday, knee).

Ravens - S Eric Weddle (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Patrick Onwuasor (Questionable Thursday, knee), S Tony Jefferson (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Terrell Suggs (Questionable Thursday, knee), CB Jimmy Smith (Questionable Thursday, achilles), DB Anthony Levine (Questionable Thursday, back), WR Michael Campanaro (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), WR Chris Matthews (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Mike Wallace (Questionable Thursday, concussion), WR Breshad Perriman (Questionable Thursday, concussion), TE Maxx Williams (Questionable Thursday, ankle), LB Tim Williams (Questionable Thursday, thigh), WR Jeremy Maclin (Questionable Thursday, shoulder), RB Terrance West (Questionable Thursday, calf), TE Benjamin Watson (Probable Thursday, knee).

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS, 1-5 O/U): Running back Jay Ajayi (442 yards) is saddled with a 3.5-yard average that is well below the 4.9 mark of last season's breakthrough campaign, but he will have a shot at posting his third 100-yard performance of the year against a Baltimore squad that ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense (145.3 yards per game). Moore will try to pump life into a sagging offense that ranks 31st in scoring (15.3 points) and dead last in total offense (261.8 yards) as well as try to make a downfield threat out of receiver Jarvis Landry, who is averaging just 8.1 yards on 45 receptions. Defensive end Cameron Wake has recorded six sacks after posting 2.5 against the Jets, but the defense has made only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U): Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in scoring offense (18.8 points) and 28th in total offense (277.6 yards) while quarterback Joe Flacco has been an underwhelming performer with five touchdown tosses and eight interceptions. "I have to be more consistent," Flacco told reporters. "That is the name of this game. In order to win the majority of your games, you have to play consistent, and you still probably are going to lose a couple." Outside linebacker Terrell Suggs (team-best 4.5 sacks) is expected to play through a knee injury, while cornerback Brandon Carr has recorded a club-leading three interceptions.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-7 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 8-0-1 in Dolphins last nine Thursday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ravens last five games overall.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are fairly split on this matchup, with 53 percent of bettors giving the Ravens a slight edge. The total is even closer with 51 percent of wagers on the Under.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Dolphins at Ravens
October 26, 2017

Miami at Baltimore (-3, 37), 8:25 pm ET, CBS/NFLN

It's been nearly an entire decade since the Dolphins covered the spread of a game against the Ravens, last doing so in a 22-16 overtime win back in '07. You've got to go back 20 years and a week for the last time the Dolphins picked up a win in Baltimore, way back in their first visit back in 1997.

Karim Abdul-Jabbar, the running back unrelated to the Hall of Fame center, scored three touchdowns to fuel the victory. That's a blast from the past. While history may not be on Miami's side as they visit Baltimore, the form the current Ravens have put on display of late could ease their burden.

In danger of missing the playoffs for the third straight season, something they've never done under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are hoping to even their record at 4-4 with a win over the Dolphins. Although Baltimore didn't qualify for the postseason in its first four years after relocating from Cleveland, it has been part of the AFC playoff picture more than it hasn't since winning Super Bowl XXXV in 2000. Harbaugh qualified in each of his first five seasons, but will need a strong finish to avoid missing out for the fourth time over his last five.

From that standpoint, there's tremendous pressure to get off to a good start and pick up this win in a short week to move forward within striking distance of a playoff spot entering the season's second half. Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti gave his GM Ozzie Newsome, Harbaugh and QB Joe Flacco a vote of confidence by stating his belief in their competence and his preference for patience, but since he felt the need to do that, there's definitely cause for concern that the foundation is crashing.

Harbaugh is a perfect 5-0 at home on Thursday nights, and actually told his team's fans this week that "there are going to be good times ahead for Joe Flacco. Stick with him."

Flacco has yet to throw for even 250 yards this season, topping out at 235 in a 26-9 loss to Pittsburgh. He hasn't trusted the offensive line since it lost its most valuable member, Marshal Yanda, in the opening month. The former Super Bowl MVP has thrown eight interceptions and just five touchdowns through the first seven games, so maybe facing the team he's lit up most over the past three seasons will help him snap out of a season-long funk. Flacco threw four touchdown passes in last December's 38-6 rout of the Dolphins, utilizing advantages the Ravens had against the linebackers and DBs to post a season-best 36 completions. Dennis Pitta, who was lost to a dislocated hip in training camp, scored two touchdowns among his nine receptions for 90 yards.

Injuries have continued to play a role in the demise of the Ravens offense, which comes off being held to just 16 points in Minnesota, which is misleading since they scored with no time left after driving down the field against a defense more interested in watching the seconds tick away. Had rookie Chris Moore not tapped his toe to get both feet in on the final play of regulation on Sunday, not only would the 'under' for that game have come in, but Flacco would carry a touchdown-less streak of 13 quarters into Thursday night's game. As it is, he's thrown two TD passes in his last 22 quarters.

The defense Miami will bring into town is much improved from the version Flacco dominated 10 months ago. Linebackers Rey Maualuga and Lawrence Timmons were elsewhere last season, while Kiko Alonso continues to make plays. Up front, Cameron Wake had 2.5 sacks to help put away the Jets last week as the Dolphins rallied from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to win 31-28 despite losing starting QB Jay Cutler to broken ribs that will keep him out here. Backup Matt Moore, who threw for a pair of scores and 188 yards to help execute the comeback, will start for the first time since last season's AFC Wild Card playoff loss to Pittsburgh.

The Dolphins are in position to join the Steelers, Chiefs and Patriots at 5-2 with a victory here, which would be impressive since they're now on their third quarterback after losing Ryan Tannehill and now Cutler. This injury isn't likely to keep him out long, but since the offense was inconsistent with him at the helm, it's entirely possible that Moore can keep the job if he continues to excel.

Miami Dolphins
Season win total: 7 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC East: 18/1 to 15/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 50/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 100/1

Baltimore Ravens
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +130, Under -150)
Odds to win AFC North: 6/1 to 10/1
Odds to win AFC: 50/1 to 100/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Despite the comeback win over the Jets and the possibility of joining the AFC's elite, record-wise, the Dolphins numbers remained the same as they were the previous week. The books clearly aren't big believers in Cutler or Moore. Since they're in the same division as New England, they're not going to get much love. Still, merely from the standpoint that they've gotten off to a successful start and that injuries can pop up at any time to derail seasons, it might be worthwhile to get in on some Dolphins futures if you think they're going to pick up a win here.

The Ravens are also potentially lucrative. Considering the coaching staff knows what it takes to be successful against the AFC's elite teams, you can be confident in the leadership if nothing else. Flacco has been shaky and injuries have compromised any and all depth, so if I had to choose between these two longshots to back long-term, Miami gets my vote.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Ravens were installed as a 4.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced, opening the week at 3.5 at a few shops but quickly moving to 3, which is where at resides pretty much everywhere as of gameday morning. The total opened at 37-37.5, but is now most widely available at 37.

Baltimore is in the -160 range on the money line if you don't want to lay the possession just to flirt with a push, while backing the Dolphins outright will get you +140.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

"Currently, the action for TNF is fairly split. We took a little bit of sharp money on the Ravens early, but then received just about the sames sharp money on Miami at +3.5," Cooley said. "The public likes the Dolphins with a 60-40 split. Smart money on the under as well. Despite the win streak, I don’t know if you can call the Dolphins 'hot' due to the nature of those victories, and this feels like a game Baltimore has to have."

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond missing Cutler, the Dolphins have injury issues along the offensive line and at receiver. Left guard Anthony Steen has been ruled out, necessitating a reshuffling up front. Jesse Davis will start. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable but should play, which is fortuntate since Miami would really have to get creative if he can't go. WR DeVante Parker has been absent for the better part of two games but is hoping to return from an ankle injury to push Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills for targets. DE Andre Branch and DT Jordan Phillips are also questionable.

The Ravens ruled out RB Terrance West and TE Maxx Williams and list WRs Michael Campanaro and Chris Matthews as doubtful. WR Breshad Perriman, who scored against the Dolphins last season, cleared concussion protocol and will play, but Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace are each serious question marks. Guard Matt Skura and TE Ben Watson are questionable but expected to return to action. On the defensive end, LB Tim Williams is out, but Terrell Suggs and top corner Jimmy Smith are expected to go.

RECENT MEETINGS (Baltimore 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS last seven; UNDER 4-3)

12/4/16 Baltimore 38-6 vs. Miami (BALT -3.5, 41.5)
12/6/15 Miami 15-13 vs. Baltimore (MIA -3, 43.5)
12/7/14 Baltimore 28-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 45)
10/6/13 Baltimore 26-23 at Miami (MIA -2.5, 42.5)
11/7/10 Baltimore 26-10 vs.Miami (BALT -5, 41)
1/4/09 Baltimore 27-9 at Miami (BALT -3.5, 38)
10/19/08 Baltimore 27-13 at Miami (MIA -3, 35)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on field goal length and combined sacks.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Ravens -140, Dolphins +120)
Team to reach 20 points first: (Ravens -155, Dolphins +135)
Team to score first: (Ravens -125, Dolphins +105)
Team to score last: (Ravens -115, Dolphins -105)
First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)
Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over +140, Under -160)
Longest FG made: (47, Over -110/Under -110)
Total sacks by both teams combined: (4.5 Over -110, Under -110)
Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -210, No +175)
Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +220, No -260)
Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes +120, No -140)
Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +102, No -140)
Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)
Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -155, No +135)


RAVENS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Baltimore is 1-1 SU/ATS in this role, defeating Cleveland and losing outright in OT against Chicago. The Ravens were 5-2 as a home favorite last season, covering the number on four occasions, which included the 38-6 romp over the Dolphins that provided their largest margin of victory last season.

DOLPHINS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Miami is a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS catching points on the road this season. The Dolphins survived the Chargers in L.A. in their season debut when Younghoe Koo missed a potential game-winning field goal and rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit in Atlanta to beat the Falcons as a 14-point 'dog. The 'Phins went 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in this role last season, including the Wild Card loss in Pittsburgh.


NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 9 currently has the Ravens as a 4.5-point road underdog at Tennessee. The Dolphins will be back on a national stage, hosting the Raiders in a huge AFC clash on Sunday night football. Oakland is listed as a 1-point road favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Week 8 Game Scout: Dolphins at Ravens
October 26, 2017

MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-2) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-4)

KICKOFF: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, TV: CBS, NFLN, Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (Field reporter), Jay Feely (field reporter).

SERIES HISTORY: 13th regular-season meeting. Series tied, 6-6. The Ravens won the last meeting, 38-6, last season. QB Joe Flacco threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns as the Ravens ended the Dolphins' six-game winning streak. These teams are very familiar as this is the fifth consecutive year they've met. The Ravens have won three of the last four meetings.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Miami's running game will be the focus. Running back Jay Ajayi and the offensive line must take pressure off quarterback Matt Moore, starting his first game because Jay Cutler is out with fractured ribs. It would help Miami establish the physical presence against the NFL's worst run defense (145.3 yards per game).

The Ravens need to jump out to an early lead because they are not built to play from behind. Flacco might be limited with throwing downfield because of injuries to several of his receivers. So, Flacco might be reduced to picking up yards with screens and intermediate passes. He cannot afford a turnover. The Ravens need to establish the run to take some pressure off Flacco. The Dolphins, however, are stout up front and will try to force Flacco to beat them. The key to this game could be field position.

Miami, which is 10th (308.2 yards per game) in total defense, is becoming adept at shutting down the run and allowing its pass rush, led by DE Cam Wake (6.0 sacks), to take over. Look for Miami to start with an eight-man front early to stop the run.

If Baltimore has success on the ground, the Dolphins will have a long night.

The Ravens are at their best when they force turnovers. Baltimore has managed just four turnovers in their four losses and 11 in their wins. The Ravens will look to keep Moore under pressure. The key will be shutting down Ajayi, but Baltimore's run defense has allowed more than 100 yards in the past five games.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley vs. Dolphins DE Cameron Wake. Stanley is the anchor of an offensive line that has been ravaged by injuries. Quarterback Joe Flacco, who missed all of training camp with an ailing back, has been sacked 17 times. Wake has been a force for Miami and is tied for 10th in the NFL with six sacks. Miami will look to keep Flacco under constant pressure to force mistakes, with Wake leading the charge.

--Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi vs. Ravens DT Brandon Williams. Williams was back in the lineup Sunday against the Vikings after missing four games with a foot injury. Baltimore allowed 169.5 yards per game and went 1-3 when Williams was out. Even with Williams able to play, the Vikings ran for 169 yards on 33 carries. Williams and the rest of the offensive line could face a bigger challenge against Ajayi, who is averaging 73.7 yards per game. Ajayi was held out of practice this week with knee and elbow issues. Miami will look to establish an effective running game, especially with short week and going on the road.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Dolphins QB Matt Moore. Moore will be making his first start of the season in a Thursday night road game, so the degree of difficulty gets raised slightly. Moore did a good job last week in relief of Jay Cutler (ribs). The big concern is whether he'll be loose with the ball. He was good last season (9 TDs, 4 INTs, including playoffs) and wasn't bad last week (2 TDs, 1 INT). Otherwise, Moore's let-it-rip attitude might be just what this offense needed.

FAST FACTS: Dolphins QB Matt Moore came off the bench when Jay Cutler was injured last week and threw two TD passes, finished with a 102.9 rating. In his past six starts on the road, Moore collected 15 passing TDs vs. 3 INTs. ... RB Jay Ajay totaled 207 yards from scrimmage (103.5 per game) in the past two games. ... WR Jarvis Landry caught passes for 93 yards and a TD last week and seeks fourth straight week with a TD catch. ... DE Cameron Wake made 2.5 sacks last week and has at least two in 16 games since entering the league in 2009, tied for fourth among active players. ... S Reshad Jones has caught an interception in two of the last three meetings. ... Ravens QB Joe Flacco has completed 117 of 162 (72.2 percent) for 1,417 yards, nine TDs and three INTs in the past five meetings. He completed 36 of 47 (76.6 percent) for 381 yards, four TDs and one INT in his last game vs. Miami. ... WR Mike Wallace had 15 TD catches in two seasons with Miami (2013-14). ... TE Benjamin Watson has 463 career catches, sixth most among active TEs. ... LB C.J. Mosley has 46 tackles (11.5 per game) in his past four at home. He is one of three NFL players with 400 tackles (401), five sacks (7) and five INTs (7) since entering the league in 2014. ... S Eric Weddle has an interception in two of the past three games at home. ... LB Terrell Suggs has 8.5 sacks and a pick-six in the past seven meetings.

PREDICTION: The Dolphins are changing quarterbacks due to injury (again) and Ravens QB Joe Flacco is running out of targets. If Miami can run the clock and gain yards with Jay Ajayi running and receiving it might make Flacco's lack of familiar targets moot. But the call here is for the Ravens to get a needed victory at home.

OUR PICK: Ravens, 32-28.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/23/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/22/2017 11-13-2 45.83% -16.50
10/19/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
10/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............37 - 39 - 3....48.68%....-29.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/23/2017................1 - 0.................+5.00...........0 - 1.........-5.50.............-0.50

10/22/2017................2 - 3 - 2.............-6.50............4 - 6.........-13.00...........-19.50

10/19/2017.................0 - 0.................+0.00...........0 - 1...........-5.50...............-5.50

10/16/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00...........1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50..............-2.50

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00..............+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00..............+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals......................16 - 14 - 3............-+3.00...........15 - 16...........-13.00................- 10.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 3..................................-15.00
.
Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0..................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0..................................+5.00

Monday Night 2 Team Parlay..........................1 - 0 .................................+12.50


*****************


THURSDAY, OCTOBER 26
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at BAL 08:25 PM

MIA +3.0 *****

O 38.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Patriots LB Hightower done for season
October 26, 2017

New England Patriots middle linebacker Dont'a Hightower will miss the rest of the season with a torn pectoral muscle, an injury that was suffered in the third quarter of last Sunday's win over the Atlanta Falcons.

The Pro Bowler reportedly had surgery on Thursday to repair the injury and is expected to make a full recovery for 2018.

This is a huge loss for a New England defense that has struggled in the first half of the season. One player called Hightower the team's best defender while lamenting the loss and others used the word "special" to describe the linebacker both as a playmaker and a leader in the locker room as a team captain.

"He knows the defense like the back of his hand. To lose a guy like that is a huge blow for the team," linebacker David Harris said. "But as a linebacker group, we have to step up and try to fill his place, which is going to be tough to do. It's a huge loss."

--Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Telvin Smith signed a four-year contract extension, the team announced.

Financial terms were not disclosed by the team, but ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the deal was worth $50 million.

Smith had signed a four-year contract worth $2.43 million after being selected by Jacksonville in the fifth round of the 2014 draft.

Smith has a team-leading 58 tackles this season to go along with two interceptions, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. The 26-year-old has recorded 408 tackles and six interceptions, with two being returned for touchdowns.

--Carolina Panthers middle linebacker Luke Kuechly was a full participant in practice for the second straight day.

Kuechly, who sat out last week's contest versus the Chicago Bears with a concussion, is on pace to play for Carolina (4-3) in its NFC South road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) on Sunday.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera said Kuechly is progressing through the concussion protocol and he is "looking forward to having him out there." The four-time Pro Bowl selection still needs to be cleared by an independent neurologist before he can return to the field.

--Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had screws inserted in his fractured right collarbone during surgery last week.

In a taped appearance on TBS' "Conan" that airs Thursday, Rodgers told host Conan O'Brien that doctors used "13 screws" to repair his collarbone. The 33-year-old Rodgers was injured during the first quarter of the Packers' 23-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Oct. 15.

Rodgers, who was placed on injured reserve on Oct. 20, has another four weeks before he can practice and isn't eligible to play in a game until Dec. 17 at Carolina.

--Cleveland Browns rookie defensive end Myles Garrett will not travel with the team to London and has been ruled out of Sunday's game against the Minnesota Vikings with a concussion.

Garrett, who was the top overall pick of the 2017 draft, was placed in concussion protocol on Tuesday after complaining of symptoms upon entering the Browns' facility.

The 21-year-old registered a team-leading four sacks and has 11 tackles in his first three games this season.

--Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was placed on injured reserve.

Palmer is expected to miss eight weeks with a broken left arm sustained in Sunday's 33-0 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

Arizona (3-4) will have the option of bringing back Palmer should the club remain in contention. The 37-year-old is eligible to return for a Week 16 matchup with the New York Giants.

--Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs is inching closer to his return to the field.

Diggs was a full participant in practice after sitting out the previous two games with a groin injury.

The 23-year-old Diggs is aiming to be back in the lineup for the NFC North-leading Vikings (5-2) in Sunday's game versus the Cleveland Browns (0-7) in London.

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Vikings to start Keenum at QB vs Browns in London
October 27, 2017

LONDON (AP) Case Keenum will make his sixth start in eight games at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings when they play Cleveland in London.

Coach Mike Zimmer confirmed on Friday the decision that he'd been coy about all week regarding Keenum, who has played well in relief of Sam Bradford.

Zimmer called the muddled quarterback situation ''a good problem to have'' and said he anticipates ''getting them all in there at some point in time.''

The Vikings (5-2) play the Browns (0-7) on Sunday at Twickenham Stadium.

Bradford has played in only half a game since the season opener because of knee trouble. He hasn't practiced with the team in three weeks. Teddy Bridgewater hasn't been added to the active roster, and the team is being careful about his return from a massive knee injury 14 months ago. Rookie Kyle Sloter has no NFL regular-season experience.

Jeremiah Sirles, who has started the last two games at left guard for Nick Easton, was ruled out with a knee injury. Left tackle Riley Reiff (knee) was a full participant in practice and listed as questionable.

Easton (calf) was also listed as questionable, along with wide receiver Stefon Diggs (groin, ankle), wide receiver Michael Floyd (hamstring) and cornerback Mackensie Alexander (hip). Diggs has missed the last two games. Floyd and Alexander sat out of the last game.

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Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
October 27, 2017

We’re about to hit the halfway point of the season, which means things are going to start heating up across the board. We have tons of data to go on, but more than anything, we’ve been watching these teams play football. A lot of them aren’t passing the eye test, while there are a handful who deserve some recognition as underdog plays despite matchups.

Here’s a look at five of the toughest NFL betting lines to gauge in Week 8.

Odds per BetOnline.ag

Los Angeles Chargers +7 over New England Patriots

The Patriots were thin enough on defence before Don’t’a Hightower tore his peck. You know what that means: lots of throwing room for Philip Rivers and even more running room for Melvin Gordon. All in all, this number is too high, especially given how violent the Chargers have been defensively. The Chargers are also 5-1 ATS when playing a winning team on the road.

Also, you should love Philip Rivers in October. He’s 6-2 ATS when playing in the month, and while there’s little doubt that the Patriots can win this game, I don’t believe that they can hold off Rivers and Gordon in this game. Don’t get sold by the “west coast team playing in the early game”.

New York Jets +4.5 over Atlanta Falcons

At some point you just have to believe that the Jets are better than everyone expected them to be. They have this weird habit of rising to the level set by their opponents. In the last four games, they’ve averaged a -1 point differential against Jacksonville, Cleveland (away), New England and Miami (away). It’s a strange trip, but they’re also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. That’s worthy of consideration.

As for the Falcons, it’s just too hard to believe that Matty Ice isn’t as frigid as star quarterbacks could be. A lot of people will tout this matchup as the one where the Falcons get back on the horse, but this team feels absolutely broken. Atlanta isn’t just 0-3 SU and ATS, they’re coming off a blowout loss to a team that the Jets almost defeated.

Until Atlanta proves that they’re worthy of your investment, there’s no reason to back them. The Jets have done more than enough to warrant a look.

Carolina Panthers +2 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Are we done throwing blind faith at Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? There’s just no trusting this team. They can look proficient and capable in losses, but the fact is that they still lose games and they’ve covered one time the whole season.

Beyond that, the Panthers just seem to play better on the road as they’ve gone 3-1 ATS when travelling. They walloped San Francisco 23-3 to start the season, beat New England and Detroit before vomiting all over Soldier Field against the Bears last weekend in a 3-17 loss. Stuff happens.

Cam Newton and his uneven offensive output gets all the press for the Panthers. However, what makes Carolina a great bet overall is their no-big-play defence, which ranks 3rd in yards against and only surrenders 19.9 points against per game.

The only thing Tampa does is try to produce big gainers, and they won’t be able to do that against a Carolina defence that eviscerates the run and limits the pass. I’m not telling you to buy in to 2017 Newton or Winston, but I am advising that the Panthers defence is the big x-factor here.

Washington Redskins +2 over Dallas Cowboys

There’s a prevailing thought that the Redskins are simply too banged up to compete. And that’s probably true. Almost none of their defensive core is operating at full capacity. There’s also major concern along the offensive line with tackles Morgan Moses and Trent Williams hurting.

This is the type of game where Chris Thompson rushes for a billion yards and multiple scores, because Dallas can’t seem to contain quality running-backs. Aaron Jones ran for 125, Todd Gurley amassed 121 and even Carlos Hyde averaged 4.8 yards a carry before the Niners had to go airborne to catch up on the scoreboard.

And here’s the rub – even with all these niggling injuries, Washington remains competitive. Call it the Kirk Cousins corollary. He just finds ways to keep his team in contention, and the chemistry that is erupting between hi and Jordan Reed is a problem for Dallas. I don’t like the Dallas defence at all. They’re the biggest reason that the Cowboys can’t win or cover despite having one of the best offences in town.

Would rather lose money on a Washington team that plays through injury than a Dallas team that can’t quite seem to protect themselves when playing good teams.

Seattle Seahawks -5.5 over Houston Texans
After two abysmal weeks at quarterback, Deshaun Watson has arrived. Nobody is debating the fact that he’s going to be the franchise for Houston for years to come. What I will argue, however, is whether or not him and the Texans are trustworthy against good teams.

We really have one sample of when Watson had to go up against an elite defence, and he was easily taken care of by Kansas City. Yes, he put up five touchdowns, but two of those came in absolute garbage time. Remember, this is the game when he went for a two-point conversion with no time left on the clock while being down by ten points.

This line is designed to snare some believers who are buying in on the Houston Texans, but the real second half team to bank on is the Seattle Seahawks. This defence is one of the best in the NFL, and are finally playing like it. The Seahawks allow the fewest points in the league and have a known secondary that can haunt rookies like Watson.

A lot of what Houston does well offensively comes in the form of big plays to DeAndre and Fuller, but the Seahawks do an exceptional job of keeping those types of impacts limited. Credit Earl Thomas with your money here. The Seahawks are about to frustrate the living hell out of Houston and remind everyone that they’re an NFC contender in the process.

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 8
October 27, 2017

The Seattle Seahawks started the season a little sluggish offensively while losing their opener at Green Bay, 17-9, and also in Week 3 at Tennessee, 33-27, but they appear to have their act together on both sides of the ball while riding a three-game win streak.

They get a visit from the Texans on Sunday and despite Houston scoring 33 or more points in their last four games behind rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson, the betting world is loving their old reliable Seattle Seahawks like it was 2013 again.

"This Seattle side is jumping today, we're up to -6 now," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood who moved Seattle from -5.5 to -6 on Friday. "The public is on that side as well so it's going to be one of our biggest risks on the day."

The total on the game has risen from 44.5 to 45.5 showing a great respect with Watson's offense that has helped Houston's games go 'over' the total in four of his five starts. Will Seattle's defense stop him or is Watson going to continue to shine? That looks to be the main storyline here and the sports books sure hope he does his thing well.

Once again, the books need the worst team in the NFL to cover. Showing good will to our London brothers and sisters, your colonies give you the pleasure of watching our winless Cleveland Browns (0-7) this Sunday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET.

"The biggest one-sided game of the day is the Vikings," Rood said. "We'll be at -10 soon and we don't even have any real big straight bet action. It's mostly parlays."

Caesars Palace is the only book in town showing Minnesota -10, but most books will likely be there during the weekend. So if you like the Browns, wait for double-digits. They did cover last week against the Titans, so that's 2-5 against the spread this season.

"We're also going to needs the Bears +8.5 even though we did take one sharp bet at +9," Rood said of Chicago's game at New Orleans. "They've been a tough team each week despite not showing well statistically -- that can't be sustainable. It has to catch up with them soon. But we'll be rooting for them this week."

The New Orleans Saints have won and covered their last four while the Chicago Bears have been gritty in covering their last three. Another ugly team the books are good to need is going to be the San Francisco 49ers.

"The 49ers have been playing well this season, except for last week and we're going to need them pretty good this week," Rood said. "The Eagles have become a very popular public team."

The 49ers got blasted 40-10 against Dallas last week, but despite being 0-7 they've been better than the Las Vegas rating going 4-3 ATS. The high-flying Philadelphia Eagles have gone 5-2 ATS and they're up to -13 at most sports books, a number Rood says is about 4-points too high but done so because of public perception.

Another team getting bonus points added to the spread because of popularity is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won their last two and have their defense playing its best while consistently feeding running back Le'Veon Bell on offense.

"Our biggest risk of all is going to be the Steelers on Sunday night," he said. "We took two pops on the Steelers at -3 even and -3 -110, and then we have all the parlay action on them as well."

Despite the high number, sharps still laid it which is unusual, but also telling about how they feel about the Detroit Lions who come off a bye.

When the first 10 games are graded, no matter how poorly or well the sports books did, their day may ultimately rest with trying to beat the Steelers with extended parlay risk.

Rood says his worst case four-team parlay scenario cashing collectively on Sunday is Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Detroit.

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Gridiron Angles - Week 8
October 28, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Falcons are 10-0 ATS (14.0 ppg) since October 24, 2010 as a favorite coming off a road game where they allowed at least 150 rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Texans are 0-11 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since December 10, 2012 as a dog coming off a win where they scored at least 24 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since Nobember 2012 at home coming off a game where Russell Wilson threw at least 35 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Lions are 12-0 OU (12.0 ppg) since Dec 13, 2009 off a game as a road dog of more than three points where they committed multiple turnovers.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 0-10 OU (-12.7 ppg) since October 26, 2014 coming off a road game where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Bengals are 12-0 ATS (+10.0 ppg) at home on turf when their opponent allowed more than 365 total yards and had less than 33 minutes of possession time in their last game.

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Total Talk - Week 8
October 28, 2017

The ‘under’ went 8-7 last week and there were some clear-cut winners in that group with not one, not two but three shutouts posted on the scoreboard. Not to mention, we had another three games were teams were held to just one score. To put things in perspective, the 2016 regular season only had three bagels posted and we’re up to six this season, which includes this past Thursday’s result between Baltimore and Miami.

The back-and-forth results in the totals market continues to hold firm and through seven weeks, the ‘under’ barely holds an edge at 53-52-1.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 8 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Chicago at New Orleans: 50 to 47 ½
Atlanta at N.Y. Jets: 47 to 44 ½
Carolina at Tampa Bay: 44 to 46
San Francisco at Philadelphia: 47 ½ to 45 ½
Houston at Seattle: 43 to 46
Pittsburgh at Detroit: 44 ½ to 46 ½

It’s rare to see a total at the Superdome drop but Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu admitted their oversight.

He explained, “We really had no business opening this even close to 50, and the sharps took advantage of a bad line quickly. I think this is a matter of both defenses overachieving at this point in the season. They (Saints) still aren’t great defensively, but certainly better than anticipated.”

While seeing a New Orleans total go down, bettors could be perplexed when seeing a Seattle total rise.

“Seattle is certainly going to be a great test for Deshaun Watson and the Texans offense. But other than Andy Reid, I don’t know who is calling better plays right now than Bill O’Brien (perhaps Sean McVay). With Watson, the playbook has opened up and the ‘Hawks will have their hands full,” said Cooley.

Along with having risk on those two games, Cooley told VI that the major offshore betting shop has liability on the ‘under’ in the Falcons-Jets and 49ers-Eagles matchups and the ‘over’ in the Panthers-Buccaneers game.

Keep an Eye On

-- Minnesota and Cleveland will play in this week’s NFL International Series and this game has an early start (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the first three games played overseas and unfortunately the locals were treated to a pair of the aforementioned shutouts. Another low-scoring affair (38) is expected and Cleveland has been a solid ‘under’ bet (5-2) this season. Minnesota (4-3) has leaned to the ‘over’ but all three ‘under’ tickets came away from home. This will be the last game from the UK this season, but there is one more contest in this series which takes place in Week 11 from Mexico City between the Patriots and Raiders.

-- There will be four non-conference games in Week 8 and these matchups have watched the ‘over’ go 15-13-1.

-- The Steelers and Dolphins finally cashed their first ‘over’ result last week and Miami made it two in a row to the high side this past Thursday. Will Pittsburgh keep the trend rolling on SNF (see below) at Detroit?

-- It’s very likely that no totals will close in the fifties in Week 8, which would be the first time this season that it’s happened. We’ve had 12 games close in that neighborhood so far and the results have been a stalemate (6-6).

Bye Beware?

Teams playing with rest this season have watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their following game and that includes a 3-1 mark last week. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans will both be playing off their bye week on Sunday.

Sticking with rest, one of my VI colleagues pointed out a total trend that’s focused on teams playing before the bye. Including the six teams off this weekend, we’ve had 16 clubs have their bye week. Based on our numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 12-4 in games for the teams playing just before the bye.

Confused?

Green Bay, Tennessee, L.A. Rams, N.Y. Giants, Arizona and Jacksonville are all on their bye in Week 8 and coincidentally all of those teams saw the ‘under’ connect in their Week 7 games.

Will that balance out or should we press the angle? I’m not sure but there are two matchups this week where both teams will be off in Week 9 – Cleveland vs. Minnesota, L.A. Chargers vs. New England.

The other teams off next weekend will be Chicago and Pittsburgh.

Home-Away Tendencies

As we’re approaching the midway point of the regular season, we’re starting to see some total trends for both the hosts and visitors. There are a few to watch in Week 8 and four of the teams will be squaring off against one against another.

New Orleans: 2-0 ‘over’ at home. Saints averaging 36 PPG, allowing 37 PPG in two games.

Indianapolis: 3-0 ‘over’ on the road. Colts have the worst scoring defense (42.7 PPG) on the road.

Cincinnati: 3-0 ‘under’ at home. Bengals ranked last in scoring offense at home with 9.7 PPG

Oakland: 3-0 ‘under’ on the road. Raiders only averaging 15.3 PPG.

Detroit: 3-0 ‘over’ at home. Lions averaging 28.3 PPG at Ford Field.

Divisional Contests

The ‘under’ went 3-2 in the divisional games last week, pushing the ‘under’ to 22-10 overall. As I wrote last week, I do believe these numbers will balance out and I’m going to pay close attention to the rematches. The Jets-Dolphins game easily went ‘over’ last week while their first game was a stone-cold ‘under’ winner. At the same time, the Chargers-Broncos saw the ‘under’ connect after their Week 1 opener went high.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: The ‘under’ went 2-0 between the pair last season with a combined 33 and 31 points posted. This total has been steamed up as the pros continue to fade the defense of the Buccaneers defense, which is ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (6.1). The unit has allowed 28.8 PPG in their last five and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 4-1. You just wonder if Carolina, coming off a 3-point effort, can have the same production against Tampa Bay. In road wins over the Patriots and Lions, QB Cam Newton looked great but it’s been the exact opposite the last two weeks. Sticking with gun slingers, Bucs QB Jameis Winston hasn’t had much success in this first four games (4 TDs, 7 INTs) against the Panthers.

Dallas at Washington: These teams watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 last season and the high side is on a 4-1 run in the past five games in this series. The Redskins and Cowboys both enter this game with identical 4-2 ‘over’ records. After a slow start in its first two games (18 PPG), Dallas has posted 28-plus points in each of its last four. The Redskins defense, without CB Josh Norman, allowed 58 points the last two weeks and 495 passing yards which resulted in a pair of losses. He’s expected to return Sunday and that should help stop the bleeding for Washington. However, the offensive line for the Redskins will be missing at least two starters and possibly another two.

Denver at Kansas City: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ produced a 2-1 mark in the primetime games last week but the ‘over’ still holds a slight lean at 14-9 (61%) on the season and that includes last Thursday’s high side ticket between the Ravens and Dolphins, which was boosted with a pair of late pick-six defensive touchdowns.

Pittsburgh at Detroit: According to our Vegas Money Moves report, this game will decide the week for the bookmakers. The total has gone from 44 ½ to 46 ½ and I suppose the masses believe Pittsburgh’s juggernaut of an offense is back. The unit just posted a season-high 29 points last Sunday and it could’ve been better if they didn’t settle for five field goals. While the offense receives all the attention in Western Pennsylvania, it’s about time the defense gets noticed. They lead the league in yards per play (4.4), second in total defense (258.7 YPG) and third in scoring (16.6 PPG). Detroit’s offense will be a very stiff test at Ford Field and while Pittsburgh has been a great ‘under’ bet (6-1), the Lions are 3-0 to the ‘over’ at home. One trend that could have you leaning low is the Lions ‘under’ run (4-0) in their last four off the bye which has been helped with some solid defensive performances (18 PPG).

Denver at Kansas City: This total opened 44 ½ and has been bet down to 43 as of Saturday morning. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0-1 in the last four encounters but the lowest total during that span was 42. This is your classic ‘offense vs. defense’ matchup as the Broncos will look to contain the Chiefs attack. Denver’s offense (18 PPG) has been a mess lately and having success at Arrowhead won’t be easy. Make a note that KC has seen the ‘over’ go 4-0 in primetime games this season, which includes the fortunate outcome in Week 4 versus the Redskins.

Fearless Predictions

After finally getting the bankroll into the black, I laid an egg with a 1-3 mark ($220) and that put me back into the red on the season ($90). We don’t have as many opportunities this week but the confidence is strong. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Buffalo 46

Best Under: Houston-Seattle 46

Best Team Total: Atlanta Over 25 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 37 ½ Oakland-Buffalo
Over 39 ½ L.A. Chargers-New England
Under 56 Dallas-Washington

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NFL notebook: Texans' McNair meets with players
October 28, 2017

A day after his "inmates running the prison" comment in reference to ongoing player protests during the national anthem became public, Houston Texans owner Bob McNair met with the players Saturday morning and later issued a second statement.

"I know they were upset," McNair told the Houston Chronicle. "I wanted to answer their questions. I told them if I had it to do over again, I wouldn't use that expression."

Later Saturday, McNair issued a statement that expanded on his apology from Friday.

"As I said yesterday, I was not referring to our players when I made a very regretful comment during the owners meetings last week," McNair's statement read. "I was referring to the relationship between the league office and team owners and how they have been making significant strategic decisions affecting our league without adequate input from ownership over the past few years.

"I am truly sorry to the players for how this has impacted them and the perception that it has created of me which could not be further from the truth. Our focus going forward, personally and as an organization, will be towards making meaningful progress regarding the social issues that mean so much to our players and our community."

A Texans offensive starter told ESPN that the team will meet Saturday night "to discuss a demonstration tomorrow." The player also said that he expects everyone on the team to travel Saturday to Seattle for Sunday's game against the Seahawks.

--The Texans activated left tackle Duane Brown to the active roster in advance of Sunday's road game against the Seattle Seahawks.

The 32-year-old Brown returned to the team Monday after his holdout did not result in a new contract. He is entering his 10th NFL season and is the longest-tenured Texans player.

Brown, whose base salary was $9.4 million this season, lost about $3.3 million -- forfeiting six $552,921 game checks -- by not reporting. He will have about $6.1 million remaining on his base salary.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ruled out four-time Pro Bowl selection Brent Grimes and fellow cornerback Robert McClain for Sunday's game against the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium.

Grimes sustained a shoulder injury against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, while McClain has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol. Neither participated in practice all week.

Vernon Hargreaves III and Ryan Smith are likely to start for the Buccaneers (2-4) against the Panthers (4-3). Javien Elliott and Deji Olatoye are the other cornerbacks on the active roster.

--The Minnesota Vikings promoted center Cornelius Edison from the practice squad.

The Vikings had an open spot on the 53-man roster following the one-game suspension of safety Andrew Sendejo, who received the ban from the NFL for a flagrant violation of safety-related playing rules in last Sunday's win over the Baltimore Ravens.

The 6-foot-3, 312-pound Edison joins the Vikings' active roster in advance of Sunday's game in London against the Cleveland Browns. He spent the first seven weeks of the season on the practice squad.

--The Denver Broncos signed linebacker Kevin Snyder to their active roster and waived wide receiver Hunter Sharp, the team announced.

Snyder, 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, was signed to the team's practice squad on Tuesday. He played in all four preseason games for the Broncos this year. He was also on the practice squad during the last three weeks of last season. As a rookie in 2015, Snyder was on the New England Patriots' active roster. He also spent that season on the practice squads of the Patriots and San Francisco 49ers.

Sharp played one game, against the Chargers in Los Angeles. He served as a backup receiver and starting punt returner.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 8
October 28, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7

Week 8

1) Carolina +2 (844)
2) New Orleans -9 (801)
3) Seattle -5.5 (797)
4) Atlanta -4.5 (766)
5) L.A. Chargers +7 (746)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 8 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Miami (+3) 257 Baltimore (-3) 165
Minnesota (-9.5) 610 Cleveland (+9.5) 226
Chicago (+9) 370 New Orleans (-9) 801
Atlanta (-4.5) 766 N.Y. Jets (+4.5) 439
Carolina (+2) 844 Tampa Bay (-2) 299
San Francisco (+12.5) 538 Philadelphia (-12.5) 343
Oakland (+2.5) 711 Buffalo (-2.5) 596
Indianapolis (+10.5) 353 Cincinnati (-10.5) 249
L.A. Chargers (+7) 746 New England (-7) 482
Houston (+5.5) 513 Seattle (-5.5) 797
Dallas (-2) 745 Washington (+2) 638
Pittsburgh (-3) 606 Detroit (+3) 643
Denver (+7) 356 Kansas City (-7) 512

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
-
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%

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Essential Week 8 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas and the Seattle Seahawks have outscored opponents 63-3 in the second halves of their last three games. Will the trend continue against the Houston Texans?

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (+9.5, 38)

The Vikings defense is elite however you want to slice it. Minny’s stopper is allowing just 3.4 third down conversions per game (fewest in the league) and 1.4 offensive touchdowns per game – good for the second best mark in the league.

That doesn’t bode well for the Browns who are dead last in points scored per game at a measly 14.7.

LINE HISTORY: Sportsbooks opened with the Browns getting as few as 7.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 10 points at some shops; others have the Vikings giving 9.5. The total opened at 37.5 and was bet up to 38.

TRENDS:

*The under is 11-4 in the Browns’ last 15 games.
*The Browns are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with winning records.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-13, 46)

Losing left tackle Jason Peters is a big blow to the Philadelphia Eagles. He’s been one of the best tackles in the game for years and Pro Football Focus graded him as their top offensive tackle after the first six weeks of the season.

The Eagles lead the league in third down conversions per game at 7.1 and no quarterback in the league has a better passing rating on third down than Carson Wentz’s 133.1. Will he have as much time without the best tackle in football blocking his blindside?

LINE HISTORY: Some locations opened with this spread as low as 10 points but bettors quickly jumped on the chance to fade the 49ers. Most shops now have the Eagles favored by 13 points. The total opened at 47.5 and has dropped to 46.

TRENDS:

*The Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last six games and 4-1 in the 49ers’ last five games.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 46)

The Panthers are coming off a loss in which their opponent gained just five first downs and made only seven pass attempts. It’s fair to say Carolina’s offense needs to pick up the slack.
Cam Newton and Company has produced just one play over 20 yards in the last two games and the rushing attack has just one running play over 16 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The total opened as low as 44 and can now be found at some locations at 46. No real movement on the spread as we enter the weekend.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against NFC South opponents.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-9, 47.5)

You’ve got to wonder how the Bears are just a game under .500 with an offense built on smoke and mirrors. The Bears have passed the ball on just 35 percent of their offensive snaps over their last three games and averaging just 158.6 yards through the air per game – down from 248 yards per game they produced in 2016.

Chicago is on a two-game winning streak and owns a 6-2 edge in turnover margin in those two games.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point chalk and are now listed as 9-point faves. The total is hanging between 47.5 and 48 defending on the shop.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The over is 12-3-1 in the Saints’ last 16 home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-11, 41.5)

Turnovers are a problem in Cincinnati and it’s not just that Andy Dalton is coughing up the ball too much. It actually has to do with a defense that’s been unlucky when it comes to generating turnovers.

The Bengals have just four takeaways in six games, putting them in a tie for the second fewest in the league. They’ve yet to recover an opponent’s fumble and they had only three takeaways on fumble recoveries a year ago.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Bengals -10 and there are a few locations that bumped up the spread to -11. The total opened at 41 and is now as high as 42 at some books.

TRENDS:

*The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
*The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
*The under is 8-2 in the Bengals’ last 10 games overall.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7, 48)

The key to the Chargers’ three-game win streak has been their powerful pass rush. San Diego sits at No. 4 in the league in sacks at 23 and 11 of those have come in the team’s last three games. Edge rushers Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa account for 16 of those 23 QB takedowns.

The Pats offensive lines have had some bad games this season – particularly right tackle Nate Solder. Tom Brady has been sacked 18 times in seven games this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 7-point faves and a few shops have added a hook to make it -7.5. The total opened at 49 and there are few locations dealing 48 now.

TRENDS:

*Tom Brady is 6-0 SU in six career meetings vs. Philip Rivers.
*The Patriots are 14-6-2 ATS in their last 22 home games.
*The over is 8-3 in the Pats’ last 11 games overall.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (+6, 44.5)

What is going on with the Falcons and the AFC East? Atlanta will play an opponent from the AFC East for a fourth consecutive week and will try to snap a three-game losing streak. The Bills, Dolphins and Patriots all held the Falcons’ explosive offense to 17 or fewer points.

Head coach Dan Quinn talked this week about how his offense needs to get back to running the football more. Atlanta averaged 26.2 rush attempts per game last season and are averaging 23.3 attempts per game this season.

LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened as 4.5-point home underdogs and bettors have been back the Dirty Birds. Atlanta is now giving 6 points at most shops. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to 45.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
*The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 away dates.
*The over is 18-7-1 in Atlanta’s last 26 games.

Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46.5)

The Raiders will be without starting running back Marshawn Lynch against the Bills. Lynch was suspended a game for pushing a referee during his team’s Week 7 win against the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bills traded a big-name player for the second time this season. Buffalo hasn’t missed WR Sammy Watkins since it shipped him to the Los Angeles Rams and it appears it feels the same about DT Marcell Dareus. The former high first round draft pick was shipped to Jacksonville for a sixth round draft pick. Dareus was being used as a rotational player on the Bills’ defensive line this season.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)

Attention second half and live bettors: The Seattle Seahawks are crushing their opposition in the final two quarters. Seattle has outscored its opponents 53-9 in the fourth quarter this season and has shutout the Giants and Rams after halftime. Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks have outscored their opponents in the third and fourth quarters 63-3.

LINE HISTORY: Many offshore locations opened with the Texans getting 5.5 points. The spread has been bet up to 6.5 at most shops heading into the weekend. The total opened at 42 and has been bet up to 45.5 and even 46.

TRENDS:

*The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.
*The over is 4-0 in Houston’s last four games.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2, 47.5)

The Redskins’ offensive line is banged up heading into Sunday’s game against the Cowboys. Left guard Shawn Lauvao was the only starting O-lineman able to practice on Thursday. Head coach Jay Gruden says he’s most pessimistic about the chances of starting center Spencer Long to play this weekend. Washington would be forced to start rookie Chase Roullier at center if Long can’t play.

LINE HISTORY: The line has sat most of the week with Washington getting 2 or 2.5 points. The total opened at 50.5 and has been bet down to as low as 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)

The Lions need a jumpstart to their offense and they need it quickly. Detroit’s defense ranks seventh in Football Outsiders DVOA but the offense is among the league’s worst in yards per game. No. 1 receiver Golden Tate is questionable to play in the game after injured his shoulder in Week 6 against the Saints. Tate leads the Lions in catches with 36 and receiving yards with 363.

LINE HISTORY: The line has stayed at Lions +3 all week and the total is hanging around 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
*The Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
*The under is 20-6 in the Steelers last 26 road games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Sunday, October 29

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Steelers at Lions
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3, 45.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hopes to leave his penchant for throwing interceptions this season in his rear-view mirror on Sunday night, when he faces the aggressive defense of the Detroit Lions. Roethlisberger has answered a five-interception performance with efficient showings in back-to-back wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati.

"They're very opportunistic, a lot of turnovers. ... Doesn't seem like a ball that's in the air ever hits the ground," Roethlisberger told reporters of the Lions, who have forced an NFL third-best 14 turnovers - including nine interceptions. Roethlisberger would be wise to lean on former Michigan State star Le'Veon Bell, who has amassed at least 180 yards from scrimmage in three of his last four games. Detroit's Matthew Stafford took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries while also soothing his mind after getting intercepted three times in a 52-38 loss to New Orleans on Oct. 15. "I needed to take care of myself physically and mentally refresh, get away for a little bit and think about something other than football for a couple days," Stafford told reporters.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-3) - Lions (0) + home field (-3) = Pick’em.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as field goal home dogs and money on the home team briefly brought the number down to +2.5 before returning to the opening number Saturday. The total opened at 45 and bet up as high as 47 before fading down to 45.5.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'The bye week came at a good time for Lions after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Detroit will be rested and focused for this primetime national TV home game. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh enters in a more difficult scheduling situation as the Steelers are playing their eighth straight game without a bye after two emotional conference wins versus the Chiefs and Bengals.' Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: The tiny bit of sharp money we've taken has been on the underdog, which isn't surprising, while the public is heavily backing the Steelers. The public pounding Pittsburgh is the only reason we've moved back to the opener. We do anticipate some more sharp action on the dog, but not sure it will be enough to offset the favorite liability. Over has been a big smart play and the squares will get on that train tomorrow as well. More than 75 percent of the money on the over. Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Probable, Concussion), OT Marcus Gilbert (Questionable, Hamstring), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Knee), DE Stephon Tuitt (Out, Back), WR Martavis Bryant (Out Indefinitely, Disciplinary).

Lions - WR Golden Tate (Probable, Shoulder), LB Paul Worrilow (Probable, Knee), S Glover Quin (Probable, Concussion), RB Dwayne Washington (Probable, Quadricep), G T.J. Lang (Probable, Back), QB Matthew Stafford (Probable, Ankle), OT Emmett Cleary (Questionable, Ankle), DE Ezekiel Ansah (Questionable, Knee), OT Rick Wagner (Questionable, Ankle), OT Greg Robinson (Doubtful, Ankle), WR Kenny Golladay (Out, Hamstring), OT Corey Robinson (Questionable Week 10, Foot).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 1-6 O/U): Antonio Brown continues to reign supreme among all wide receivers, leading the league with 52 catches for 765 yards. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster likely will get the start in place of disgruntled wideout Martavis Bryant, who was demoted to the practice squad and ruled out of Sunday's contest. Smith-Schuster has gone as far as to say he'd give Roethlisberger his game check - approximately $27,000 - should the quarterback join himself, Brown, Bell and others as part of a choreographed celebration. "The ultimate celebration is to get Ben in there," Smith-Schuster told reporters. "If Ben gets in there, I'll give Ben my next check. Obviously, he doesn't need it."

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Golden Tate was spotted with his right arm in a sling last week as he dealt with a shoulder injury, but the determined wideout remains intent on playing versus Pittsburgh. The 29-year-old practiced this week - at least during individual drills - and looks to continue his strong showing at home, as he has registered at least five receptions in each of his last six games at Ford Field. Running back Theo Riddick's 23 catches trail only Tate on the team, although wideout Marvin Jones Jr. has five receptions of 20-or-more yards this season. Rookie Kenny Golladay is battling a hamstring injury but is expected to return to play his first game in over a month.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road chalk Steelers at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 63 percent of the totals action