The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

McVay faces short-week challenge for first time as head coach
September 19, 2017

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. -- Even if the Los Angeles Rams wanted to dwell on the mostly self-inflicted loss they suffered Sunday against the Redskins, they simply have no time to do so.

Their once-a-season Thursday night game arrives early this season as the San Francisco 49ers beckon in Santa Clara.

That leaves them no time to reflect on what might have been and opportunity lost against the Redskins.

The Rams canceled practice on Monday and held a short workout Tuesday. Sans physical work, they focused instead on above-the-head in preparation for the 49ers. It's all part of first-year head coach Sean McVay's approach to his first short week as a head coach.

"It's a big challenge. Whether you're a head coach or any coach. Any time that you condense a week that you're normally accustomed to having a handful of days more and you get the same amount of work in, it definitely does pose some challenges," he said. "But, it's also important for us to be aware of that so that you don't put too much on your players - figure out what they're comfortable with. But also, what are some things that attack the offensive or defensive scheme and some of the things that we'll do special-teams wise. It's a balance that we have to do a good job of as coaches and try to help our players so that Thursday is as seamless as possible, on a short week, knowing all the factors that are involved."

Much of what the Rams will focus on defensively is tightening up a run defense that gave up more than 200 yards Sunday against Washington. Some of the credit for the success goes to the Redskins, but the Rams absolutely have to do better.

"I think really, credit to Washington. I think they did a nice job with some perimeter schemes, some gap and trap-type stuff," McVay said. "And I thought as the game settled down, the defense kind of settled into the game and did a much better job in the second half. There were a couple big plays in that first half and then obviously that 61-yard draw that they hit was a big play for them. But, as the game progressed, I thought the guys settled in. But again, credit to Washington, I thought they did a nice job with some of the things that they were running schematically and they made those plays."

Thursday offers a unique situation in that both the Rams and 49ers are led by first-year head coaches. And with only two games for both McVay and Kyle Shanahan's tenures, getting a read on either could be difficult.

"Yeah, I think it does. I think it does make it a little bit more difficult just because like you mentioned you don't have the amount information you're typically accustomed to when you get ready for a normal opponent," McVay said. "But, it was a very similar type of deal for getting ready for Washington defensively last week. Those are things that we have to be ready to adjust to. I think when you look at their offense we've got some people that are familiar with some of the things that Kyle (Shanahan) has had a lot of success with over the course of his career and then I think (49ers defensive coordinator) Robert Saleh has done an excellent job these first couple weeks of putting their defense in a lot of good situations."

--Defensive tackle Aaron Donald's world is moving pretty fast these days. After holding out all of training camp and preseason in a contract dispute, Donald returned ahead of the season opener - although he didn't play - and after finally suiting up against the Redskins on Sunday he faces a quick turnaround Thursday against the 49ers.

How he responds will be an interesting focus point. Rams head coach Sean McVay does not think his body recovering sufficiently will be an issue.

"I don't think so just because he came out of the game, he felt good today when he talked with (trainer) Reggie (Scott) and (strength and conditioning coach) Ted (Rath) everything came away good," McVay said. "So, I think you just want to be mindful of the short turnaround, especially with those guys that are hurting or might be kind of day-to-day right now. But with him feeling good, I think we're on good track for him to be ready to go on Thursday."

[StarDust Bum]

Jaguars claim WR Strong off waivers
September 19, 2017

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) The Jaguars have claimed receiver Jaelen Strong off waivers from the Houston Texans, providing them some much-needed depth with Allen Robinson and rookie Dede Westbrook on injured reserve.

The make room on the roster, the Jaguars placed defensive tackle Michael Bennett on IR with a pectoral muscle injury.

A third-round draft pick in 2015, Strong has 28 receptions for 292 yards and three touchdowns in 19 games. The Texans waived him Monday. He was suspended for the season opener for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.

Robinson tore a knee ligament in the opener and had season-ending surgery. Westbrook, the 2016 Biletnikoff Award winner and a Heisman Trophy finalist, had core muscle surgery and will miss at least the first eight games of the regular season.

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McAdoo calls out QB Manning
September 19, 2017

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Following the Giants' 24-10 loss to the Lions Monday night, a frustrated Ben McAdoo was asked about a critical delay of game penalty quarterback Eli Manning took down by the goal line that ultimately forced the offense to settle for a field goal.

"Sloppy quarterback play," the head coach said. "Quarterback and the center need to be on the same page there. We've got to get the ball snapped."

When he was then asked why he didn't take it upon himself to call the timeout to save the team the penalty, McAdoo shot back, "Because we have a veteran quarterback who has played a lot of football; I expect us to get the ball snapped."

McAdoo's biting words have since been perceived by many as him calling out his two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback for his mistakes, while glossing over those made by other members of the team such as left tackle Ereck Flowers, who gave up three sacks and who looks no better than he did a year ago after two games.

On Tuesday during his conference call with the media, McAdoo, who in the past has been very open about treating players differently, walked back his criticism of his veteran quarterback.

"Did I single him out?" he asked. "Well, we needed to get the ball snapped there. So, I thought that the quarterback and the center need to find a way to get the ball snapped before the clock hit zero. I'm not sure what you mean by calling him out; we need to get the ball snapped."

Although he is not wrong to be upset about the penalty, McAdoo's lack of consistency in treating all players the same is somewhat concerning. While his likely intentions are noble -- he pushes those players he believes can handle it while coddling those who might need added reinforcement to not lose confidence -- this is the NFL, not Pop Warner, and too much pushing and prodding of an accomplished player like Manning could open bigger problems among the team if McAdoo isn't careful with his public criticisms.

Fortunately, Manning has developed such thick skin that he is rarely bothered by anything anyone says. During his weekly WFAN radio spot, Manning took the blame for not getting the ball snapped and, as leader of the offense, accepted the head coach's criticism.

"Hey, if you lose games, you only score 10 points, you deserve some criticism," Manning said. "For me, I know you can control what you can control. I can make some plays, I can do some things better, for sure."

As for the criticism, Manning said, "Coach McAdoo knows I can handle it. It's part of playing quarterback. You've gotta be tough and you've gotta take criticism, take coaching, learn from it, get better from it, and you can't be sensitive in this field. You're a quarterback in the NFL, there's gonna be tough days, there's gonna be tough times, you've gotta be able to handle the fire on game day and afterward, that's just part of the deal."

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Offensive woes haunting Giants
September 19, 2017

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- The New York Giants offense has now gone eight straight games, including the postseason, without scoring at least 20 points.

While the court of public option is calling for wholesale changes to be made covering everything from the starting lineup to head coach Ben McAdoo's role as the play-caller, the head coach said the club isn't panicking.

"We're not the first good team to start 0-2," McAdoo said Tuesday during a conference call with the New York media.

"When we first got together in April, we talked about how we weren't going to sneak up on anybody this year, we were going to get everyone's best shot and that this was New York and we had two prime-time football games vs. two pretty good opponents. There are no excuses, but we have to find a way to get better; we're not going to throw the baby out with the bath water."

Still, McAdoo isn't so blind as to see that something needs to change to get his broken offense moving in the right direction.

"We don't have much rhythm in the offense, and that's something we have to work through and make some progress there," McAdoo said. "We have to complete the ball at a high percentage, we have to protect better, we have to get the run game going. We just lack rhythm right now."

One of the things that McAdoo can change right away is handing over the play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan, something that he said the staff would look at each day this week in trying to arrive at a decision at what's best for the ball club.

He also mentioned self-inflicted wounds as being a culprit for the struggles on offense.

"We gotta learn to get out of our own way; that's the biggest thing that came to mind after watching the game," he said.

"It's my responsibility. We had some failures last night. Failures aren't fatal, but failure to learn from it might be. So, we need to make sure we learn and grow from this ball game and find a way to improve."

That all sounds good, but the bigger question is whether the Giants can turn things around with the current coaches and players they have.

McAdoo seems to think they can.

"I'm confident in this group of men and I'm confident in this group of coaches. We have a lot of work to do. We're not happy with the way the game went; there are a lot of things we can do better, not just playing the game, but also in how we approach the game, and we gotta learn from it."

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Not much going right for the Giants in first 2 games
September 19, 2017

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) The only thing going right for the New York Giants these days might be the standings after two games.

The offense has scored 13 points total. The defense that carried the team to its first playoff berth since the 2011 season is not playing as well as last season, and the special teams has generated nothing on returns and gave up rookie Jamal Agnew's game-breaking 88-yard punt return on Monday night in a 24-10 loss to the Detroit Lions.

Winning 11 games this season would appear to be wishful thinking at this point, especially with Denver, Kansas City, Oakland and five more NFC East contests in the remaining 14 games.

If there is any reason for optimism, it's the fact that there are only three undefeated teams in the conference - the Lions, Falcons and Panthers.

The bottom line for coach Ben McAdoo and his staff is that there is a lot to fix, and he is promising changes for Sunday's game in Philadelphia against the Eagles (1-1).

He even said he would look at whether he will continue to call plays on offense, but don't expect him to change that.

''We're not going to panic,'' McAdoo said Tuesday afternoon. ''We're not the first good team to start 0-2.

''When we first got together in April we talked about we weren't going to sneak up on anybody this year. We're going to get everybody's best shot and we've had two prime-time football games against pretty good opponents. It's not excuses. We have to find a way to get better.''

The offense has not scored 20 points in eight straight games and the group does not have much rhythm or confidence.

The line is not opening holes for the run or giving Eli Manning time to throw. The two-time Super Bowl MVP was sacked five times by Detroit and he looks as if he is rushing things in self-preservation mode.

While Odell Beckham Jr. returned to action after missing the opener against Dallas with a sprained left ankle, he was limited and finished with four catches for 36 yards. Free agent signee Brandon Marshall has been a bust and his drop of a long sideline pass came seconds before Agnew's return.

Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo's unit has been overtaxed with the offense doing nothing. There have been too many big plays, way too many third down conversations allowed and a not-so-stout run defense .

''I am confident in this group of men,'' McAdoo said of his team. ''I am confident in this group of coaches. We have a lot of work to do. We are not happy the way the game went last night. There are a lot of things we can do better, not just playing the game, but how we approach the game and we have to learn from it.''

Talking on other issues McAdoo said:

- Beckham came out of the game OK.

- Ereck Flowers will remain his left tackle. The coach said that while he made some miscues, there were breakdowns everywhere on offense.

- Middle linebacker B.J. Goodson (lower leg) and cornerback Janoris Jenkins (ankle, hand) are making progress after missing Monday night's game. However, it's too early to say whether they will be ready for this weekend.

- He said the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against rookie tight end Evan Engram - he appeared to grab his groin - after his touchdown was something that the team can't have. It allowed the Lions to get the ball at the New York 45 after Aldrick Rosas' kickoff went out of bounds. The Lions got the go-ahead score on that series. ''He is a high character young man and I don't anticipate that will happen again.''

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 3
September 19, 2017

THURSDAY, SEP. 21
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. RAMS at SAN FRANCISCO (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Niners won and covered both LY vs. Rams. Rams now 6-11-2 last 19 vs. spread. Niners 4-2 vs. spread against NFC West at home past two years. “Unders” 5-2 last seven meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, SEP. 24
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE vs. JACKSONVILLE at Wembley Stadium, London (CBS, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Ravens have covered first two in 2017 and “under” 16-9-2 since mid 2015. Jags "under” 13-6 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Ravens, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Pagano “under” 9-3 last 12 at Lucas Oil, Browns "under" first two in 2017.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
John Fox now 5-1-1 as home dog with Bears since LY. Steel was 10-6 as road chalk past two seasons but L in opener at Browns.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on recent Fox home dog marks.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins closed 2016 with “overs” 6 in a row en route to 12-4 “over” mark LY. Jets 5-1-1 vs. line last seven in series though got ripped last meeting of 2016 vs. Dolphins. Jets on 9-5 “under” run since mid 2016. Jets 10-5 last 15 as home dog as well.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncs “under” 7-4 last 11 away, Bills "under" 2-0 to start 2017.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans “under” 6-2 last eight in reg. season. Belichick has won last six SU in series and covered five of those. Houston just 2-5 as road dog LY but did win at Cincy on Thursday. Belichick on 12-4-3 spread uptick at home even after loss to Chiefs.
Tech Edge: Patriots, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints have covered last four meetings, the last three of those decided by only 3 points, the other by 5. Panthers now “under" six straight since late 2016.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Saints, based on “totals” and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TAMPA BAY at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 11-2 as home chalk since 2015. Bucs 6-2 as road dog LY. Vikes “over” 5-2 last seven.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs were 7-2 vs. line as visitor since, and “over” 17-4 since 2016. Lions 2-5 last 7 as home dog but 2-1 in role since LY (0-4 in 2015).
Tech Edge: "Over," based on Falcon "totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli no wins or covers last three at Linc, as Birds have won and covered 5 of last 6 in series. Prior to Monday vs. Lions. Eli “under” 14-4 last 18 since start of 2016, though last three “over” vs. Philly. Birds 6-2 vs. line at Linc LY.
Tech Edge: Eagles and slight to “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at TENNESSEE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Titans "over” 14-6-1 since late 2015, also only 4-9-1 as home dog since 2013 (1-2 for Mularkey). Carroll only 1-5 as road chalk LY though had been 10-7 in role prior.
Tech Edge: Slight to Seahawks, based on extended trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid 4-0 vs. line on road vs. Bolts since 2013, road team 7-1 last 8 vs. line in series. Reid 12-2 vs. spread last 14 on reg.-season road. Bolts 4-11 vs. spread last 15 as host.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at GREEN BAY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cincy now “under” six straight and 21-8 last 29. Bengals also 3-8 vs. spread last 11 since mid 2016. Marvin Lewis 0-4 as road dog LY. Pack 6-2-1 last 9 as Lambeau chalk.
Tech Edge: Pack and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at WASHINGTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Raiders now 11-2 vs. line last 13 away from Coliseum. Also “over” 24-12-1 last 37 reg season since late 2014. Jay Gruden now 15-7 vs. line in reg. season since late 2015. Skins “over” 18-5 last 23 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and team trends.

MONDAY, SEP. 25
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at ARIZONA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cards “over” 8-1 since mid 2016 but only 6-11 vs. line at home in reg. season since late 2014.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as 3.5-point road favorites at Cardinals
Patrick Everson

Monday Night Football is now in the books and we’re on our way to Week 3 of the NFL season. We check in on the opening lines for four noteworthy games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-12)

New England got a lot of its offensive mojo back in Week 2, but also lost stud tight end Rob Gronkowski to a groin injury, though it’s not considered serious. The Patriots (1-1 SU and ATS) raced out to a 30-13 halftime lead and coasted past New Orleans 36-20 victory Sunday as a 5.5-point road favorite.

Houston (1-1 SU and ATS) also bounced back from a poor season opener, though it has managed just 20 total points over two games. The Texans traveled to Cincinnati for the Thursday nighter and nabbed a 13-9 upset as a 5-point underdog.

“We were forced to inflate this number some, as the public knows well the disparity in these offenses,” Cooley said. “But it will be interesting to see how the Pats handle a top-flight defense, because they didn’t exactly impress against a great Chiefs defense (with Eric Berry) in their opener. Of course on the flip side, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast.”

Early action certainly points to that, as Bookmaker.eu’s opening line of Pats -12 was up to 13 by late Sunday night.

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

Oakland is out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS as it preps for its second long road trip in the first three weeks, this time for the Sunday night game. The Raiders, who opened with a win at Nashville, drubbed the New York Jets 45-20 Sunday as a healthy 14-point home chalk.

Washington bounced back from a season-opening home loss to Philadelphia by escaping Los Angeles with a 27-20 victory over the Rams as a 3-point road ‘dog.

“I think the Redskins were better represented this week than what they put forth in their opener. That said, this is a very good-looking Raiders squad,” Cooley said. “There’s a reason smart bettors were pouring money on this team to win the Super Bowl during the offseason. Action should lean toward Oakland.”

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)

Dallas got an early-season reality check on its Sunday visit to the Mile High City. In a game delayed an hour during the first half due to lightning, the Cowboys (1-1 SU and ATS) had little thunder on offense or defense, losing to Denver 42-17 laying 2.5 points.

Arizona rebounded from a season-opening setback at Detroit, but just barely. The Cardinals (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) were again on the road and needed overtime to dispatch undermanned Indianapolis 16-13 giving 7 points.

“Dallas’ defense was certainly exposed at Denver, but it’s not as if Arizona has done anything to impress us early in this season,” Cooley said of the Week 3 Monday night contest. “We know the public is going to be all over the Cowboys to bounce back, so expect the line to trend that way.”

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (no line)

Defending NFC champion Atlanta (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) christened its new stadium in style in the Week 2 Sunday nighter. The Falcons jumped all over Green Bay early en route to a 34-23 victory as a 3-point home fave.

Detroit still has some Week 2 work to do, traveling to face the New York Giants tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting the line for this Week 3 clash. The Lions opened the year with a 35-23 home win over Arizona as a 2.5-point pup.

“The creation of this line will somewhat be predicated on each team’s performance in Week 2,” Cooley said ahead of Atlanta’s Sunday night victory. “If there aren’t any major injuries on Sunday and Monday night, and nothing looks out of sorts, we’ll look to open the Lions as very small underdogs. And they’ll be live in the eyes of some bettors.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 3 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 3, including a rare situation in which the Browns are actually laying chalk on the road in their Sunday matchup against the hapless Colts and it may not be enough.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 40.5)

Cleveland visits Indianapolis this week in a pairing of 0-2 teams both looking for positive signs.

If there's one thing to notice about each team thus far, Cleveland has been playing with a bit more fire, but certainly has played superior teams as compared to Indianapolis. Why this line stands at a mere -1 is questionable. Expect this line to move into the -2, -2.5 range before this one gets underway.

In a game that will be starving for points (Under 40.5 anyone?), the Browns should dominate this game at the line, as the Colts are certainly not striking fear into anyone’s defensive scheme. Cleveland is supposed to be improving from last season and this is a game they should win. With such a low spread, that’s all you’re asking them to do.

The Colts have looked awful so far against the lowly Rams and gave their second game away with some late horrendous play. It’s not the kind of play that inspires a team to improve the following week. The Colts aren’t looking at this game as a “must-win” game. They know they’re in for a long season, but improvements may be their only catalyst. I see this game as a “must-win” for Cleveland who has some expectations riding along in this one.

If you like the Browns, get this early in the week. If you somehow see a glimmer of hope with the Colts, wait until Sunday for your best number.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-6, 41)

Miami visits the New York on a Sunday home opener for the Jets which may prove to be cringeworthy to watch.

The Dolphins did not have the luxury of having one game in their pockets when they faced the Chargers last week and yet, pulled out the win in Los Angeles shaking off some rust in the meantime. The Jets fell apart defensively against the Raiders in giving up a whopping 45 points and dropping to 0-2 for the season to start.

Usually there’s a good reason for a visiting team to be favored by six points on the road. Either the away team is exceptionally good or the home team is exceptionally not-so-good. I think the latter may be applied here.

Though the standing six is a high price tag to lay at first look, you might just be wondering who will exactly take the Jets even at this level? It's hard to see where New York money is going to come in hard and heavy at post. The most likely scenario will be a slow, steady stream of Dolphin cash which should drive this up to the -6 or -6.5 level before this gets underway. Jump on Miami early as you can and wait if you’re a true believer in New York.

Oakland Raiders at Washington (-3, 54)

On Sunday night, Oakland will be playing at Washington.

If you like the Raiders, we’re blessed to have this spread toeing the key three at his point. This, we know, will translate into a number that won’t move for a while. This line was created with perception over true value. Oddsmakers know the threshold of the betting public and the classic marquee matchup on a Sunday night with the home team as the underdog is a strong draw to casual bettors every time.

Why make the line higher when you can get the same handle right at -3?

The Raiders are playing like they did last year before the Carr injury. Now that’s he’s returned, so has the Oakland swagger. Though this is billed as a high scoring game, most of this should be on the Raiders scoreboard. The key three becomes less a factor the higher the total, when touchdowns reign more than field goals. Oakland has scored 71 points already in two games.
Eventually, this number will probably stay on the -3 with a money line to lay for a while. But you can bet that bookmakers will be very heavy on Oakland when this kicks off. This line deserves to be in the -4 range so there’s value in the favorite here

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 3 NFL lines are going to move

Game to bet on now

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)

Smart bettors have already taken advantage in this one. The line opened at Chargers +3.5 in many places, and has been bet down to +2.5 – which means that wagerers might be able to win both ways if the Chiefs wind up winning by a field goal. And that’s very possible. All that aside, Kansas City needs this one to keep pace with Denver and Oakland in the ultra-strong AFC West.

In fact, it’s imperative that the Chiefs avoid any leaks over the next three weeks because of a sadistic five-game (Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, Dallas, Giants) gauntlet that stares them in the face stating in mid-October. Now’s the time to take advantage of the Chargers, who are reeling after losing in their home opener to Miami before a lot of empty seats in their first game since moving from San Diego.

Game to wait on

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-13)

Heavy line on this game, the product of the Texans’ poor offensive performance in Cincinnati last Thursday and the Patriots’ 36-point output at New Orleans on Sunday. And also lots of uncertainty, especially considering the Patriots’ mounting injury problems on both sides of the ball. Just when NE seemed to have figured out what to do in Julian Edelman’s absence, other wideouts have gone down, further reducing Tom Brady’s options.

Now comes word that LB/DE Dont’a Hightower (hurt knee in the opener vs. KC) has been seen by Dr. James Andrews – and it’s rarely good when your name and Andrews are mentioned in the same sentence. Might be a good idea to cool on this one until the injury reports are announced and we get some kind of idea what the Pats will have on the field.

Total to watch

Oakland Raiders at Washington (53.5)

It looks like the Raiders are going to have one of their best teams in recent memory just as they get set to jump ship to Las Vegas. The competition (Titans, Jets) hasn’t put up much of a fight, but it’s the NFL and the Raiders have 71 points on the board through two games. Derek Carr is off to a terrific start (5 TD passes and the third-ranked QB) through two games, and Washington has not shown a lot so far this season. Washington is average offensively, but should put some points on the board in what has the look and feel of a high-scoring game unless there are significant weather issues.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 21

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LA RAMS (1 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 2) - 9/21/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 176-225 ATS (-71.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-225 ATS (-71.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 17-35 ATS (-21.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-177 ATS (-68.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-177 ATS (-57.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in September games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 24

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BALTIMORE (2 - 0) vs. JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 101-71 ATS (+22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 46-72 ATS (-33.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at NY JETS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 70-96 ATS (-35.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (1 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 0) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 0) at MINNESOTA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (2 - 0) at DETROIT (2 - 0) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 130-169 ATS (-55.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 0) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 2) - 9/24/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 117-88 ATS (+20.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 182-127 ATS (+42.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (2 - 0) at WASHINGTON (1 - 1) - 9/24/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 25

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DALLAS (1 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 9/25/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time peri

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 21

9:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Los Angeles is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
Los Angeles is 4-13-1 SU in its last 18 games ,when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of San Francisco's last 24 games at home


Sunday, September 24

10:30 AM
BALTIMORE vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

2:00 PM
DENVER vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

2:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cleveland is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

2:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games

2:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

2:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

2:00 PM
MIAMI vs. NY JETS
Miami is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games

2:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans

5:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TENNESSEE
Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle

5:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. LOS ANGELES
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Kansas City

5:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Green Bay's last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
OAKLAND vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland


Monday, September 25

9:30 PM
DALLAS vs. ARIZONA
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Arizona is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's game
Rams (1-1) @ 49ers (0-2)— SF didn’t score a TD (0 TD, 4 FGA on 23 drives) in first two games. Niners are 9-16 vs spread in last 25 home games; under is 23-10 in their last 33. LA split its first two home games, scoring 66 points, but defense allowed 229 rushing yards in loss to Washington LW. First road game for Rams, who are 2-6 in last eight games vs 49ers- they’re 1-7-1 in last nine visits to Bay Area. LA is 7-2-1 vs spread in last 10 road openers (2-0 when favored). Last four years, Rams are 10-15-1 vs spread on road- since 2011, they’re 1-4 as a road favorite. Under is 16-7-1 in LA’s road games the last three years. Rams’ OC LaFleur, 49ers’ DC Saleh were roommates as grad assistants at Central Michigan; LaFleur worked for coach Shanahan before lot of familiarity.

*************************

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends for Week 3

— Green Bay is 15-7-2 vs spread in their last 24 games.

— Falcons are 9-19 in their last 28 games as a favorite.

— Colts covered 11 of last 13 tries as a home underdog.

— Kansas City covered seven of its last eight games.

— Saints covered eight of last ten as a home underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Rams at 49ers
September 20, 2017

L.A. Rams (-2.5, 39.5) at San Francisco, 8:25 pm ET, NFLN

Despite being underdogs in both of last season's meetings, the 49ers managed to prevent the newly relocated Rams from picking up a win against them. Considering San Francisco won only two games last season, that doesn't say much for L.A.'s initial showing against its new in-state divisional rival.

The Niners still haven't beaten any team other than the Rams since Dec. 6, 2015, going 0-19 in that span while sporting a perfect 3-0 mark against the team that formerly resided in St. Louis. Carlos Hyde has three touchdowns in his last two games against them, which has to be music to first-year head coach Kyle Shanahan's ears since his team has yet to reach the end zone in losses to Carolina and Seattle.

L.A. may not be quite as talented on defense as those two recent Super Bowl teams, but does bring the game's most feared interior lineman Aaron Donald to the table in what will be his second game back following a training camp holdout that didn't end in time for him to participate in Week 1.

Despite his return last week, the Rams have allowed 295 yards to opposing running backs this season, which is worst in the league thus far in the early going. The 49ers will look to take advantage by feeding Hyde and utilizing accurate passes from Brian Hoyer to the likes of Pierre Garcon and rookie Trent Taylor while occasionally taking their deep shots to track star Marquise Goodwin. Thus far, the attack has produced four field goals, but Shanahan does have a strong track record in generating offense and has been working with new pieces nowhere near as efficient as what he worked with in Atlanta

Sean McVay, in his first season with the Rams, has tasted immediate success. In this battle of the NFL's youngest head coaches, the 31-year-old McVay has a chance to get over on his 37-year-old friend Shanahan, who hired him to coach tight ends when he was the offensive coordinator in Washington earlier this decade. To do so, he must continue getting production from second-year QB Jared Goff, who currently ranks in the top 10 in the league in passing yards. It's too early to make a mountain out of his progression, but there's no question he's improved and will look to take a step forward on a national stage.

These teams don't have another primetime game scheduled for the rest of the season. Judging by the reaction to the prospect of having to watch this following last week's hideous Texans-Bengals game, that news will be well-received. Still, there will be reasons to watch. Beyond monitoring two teams counting on new leadership to produce improvement after what has been a dismal stretch for both, talented players like Donald, Hyde, Todd Gurley and young defensive players Trumaine Johnson, DeForest Buckner and Solomon Thomas get a chance to strut their stuff.

Gurley jumped over a 'Skins defender on his way to a touchdown last week and has been impressive thus far, both running it and serving as an option for Goff out of the backfield. He'll be worth tuning in for, but be sure to adjust your screen to shield your eyes from looking directly at the bright yellow "Color Rush" uniforms L.A. will wear. The 49ers will be draped in black. Here are more angles and nuggets to be aware of.

Los Angeles Rams
Season win total: 6 (Over +140, Under -160)
Odds to win NFC West:5/1 to 8/1
Odds to win NFC: 40/1 to 40/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 80/1 to 80/1

San Francisco 49ers
Season win total: 5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win NFC West: 60/1 to 80/1
Odds to win NFC: 250/1 to 250/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 500/1 to 500/1

LINE MOVEMENT

These teams remain the third and worst-ranked teams in the division in the latest WestgateLV odds update for the NFC West, but there's still a wide margin of expectation between the two.

The Rams were impressive enough in Week 1 in destroying the Colts to come way down to 5/1 to win the division (25/1 opening), but went back slightly the other direction after their comeback bid against Washington. The 49ers are now 80/1 after opening 40/1 to come out of the NFC West and have the worst odds of anyone in the NFC to win its conference or a championship. L.A.'s numbers didn't change on those due to the loss and are still slightly better than where they opened (50/1, 100/1).

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Rams were installed as a 2.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announce and opened the week there too. It's barely budged and remains available there at most shops as of late Wednesday afternoon. The total opened at 40.5 or 41 and hasn't moved much, although it's now most widely available at 39.5.

Los Angeles opened as a -135 money line favorite, fluctuated slightly and is now closer to -140 (5/7) as kickoff approaches.

ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu had a compelling opinion on Thursday night's total.

"We maybe should have opened lower than the key number, but we’re expecting to see over money by the squares at some point. The public usually doesn’t do much perception into totals, they just want to see points scored. But this number will probably continue to drop with smart money behind it."

INJURY CONCERNS

Trumaine Johnson, L.A.'s top corner and a budding star who won NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors for Week 1, is expected to play after cramping up late in Sunday's loss to Washington. Corner Troy Hill is coming off suspension, so the Rams will have better depth in their secondary even if corner Kayvon Webster can't participate due to a shoulder injury.

Tight end Gerald Everett, who has four catches on as many targets this season, is nursing a thigh issue and joins Webster and backup RB Malcolm Brown (hamstring) as questionable. There's concern Donald won't be sharp since he was a little rusty on Sunday and didn't participate in camp, so we'll see whether he's on a pitch count again due to the short week.

Another of San Francisco's young defensive gems, late first-round pick Ruben Foster out of Alabama, looked great before being sidelined by an ankle injury that has him ruled out for this one. Top safety Eric Reid (knee) will also miss the contest, which makes the availability of Jimmie Ward (hamstring) and Jaquiski Tartt (neck) important. Both are questionable, joining fellow 49ers Eli Harold (foot) and George Kittle (hip) in that status.

RECENT MEETINGS (San Francisco 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS last eight; UNDER 5-3)

12/24/16 San Francisco 22-21 vs. L.A. Rams (SF +5.5, 39.5)
9/12/16 San Francisco 28-0 at L.A. Rams (SF +2.5, 43.5)
1/3/16 San Francisco 19-16 OT at St. Louis (SF +3, 39)
11/1/15 St. Louis 27-6 vs. San Francisco (STL -7.5, 40.5)
11/2/14 St. Louis 13-10 vs. San Francisco (STL +10.5, 44)
10/13/14 San Francisco 31-17 at St. Louis (SF -3, 44)
12/1/13 San Francisco 23-13 vs. St. Louis(SF -7.5, 41)
9/26/13 San Francisco 35-11 at St. Louis (SF -3.5, 43)

PROPS

Of the props available below at BetOnline.ag, I'd ride the OVER on the longest field goal made and like the value on backing no scoring in the first half's final two minutes.

Team to reach 10 points first: (Rams -130, 49ers +110)

Team to reach 10 points first: (Rams -140, 49ers +120)

First score: (Touchdown -130, FG/Safety +110)

Total FGs made by both teams: (3.5, Over -130, Under +110)

Longest FG made: (46, Over -125/Under +105)

Total sacks by both ts combined: (4.5 Over -120, Under +100)

Will there be a score in final 2 minutes of 1st half: (Yes -200, No +170)

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD?: (Yes +110, No -130)

Will there be a TD of 38 yards or more?: (Yes -110, No -110)

Will there be a 1-yard TD?: (Yes +180, No -220)

Will there be overtime: (Yes +700, No -1000)

Will there be 3 straight scores by either team: (Yes -135, No +125)


RAMS AS A ROAD FAVORITE

L.A. is in an opposing stadium for the first time in 2017 and were only in this spot twice last season. The first, last year's 28-0 season-opening debacle, put Jeff Fisher's tenure in jeopardy immediately since his team was slightly favored. The most recent occasion saw the Rams cover, beating the Jets 9-6 as a 1.5-point chalk. Hopefully this one isn't that low-scoring.

49ERS AS A HOME UNDERDOG

This is a role San Francisco has grown quite accustomed to at Levi's Stadium, opening the season with a 23-3 loss to the Panthers. They went 1-5 staright up, beating the Rams, but did cover one other time, losing just 25-23 in finale against Seattle.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 4 unsurprisingly sees both teams in road underdog roles. The Rams as an 8.5-point 'dog against the Cowboys in Arlington. The 49ers are a 7-point underdog at Arizona.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s six-pack

NFL trends for Week 3

— Chargers are 0-6-1 vs spread in their last seven games.

— Buccaneers are 6-2 in last eight games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans is 8-2 in its last ten games as a road underdog.

— Patriots are 14-4 vs spread in their last 18 games.

— Jets are 8-2 in last ten games as a home dog vs AFC East foes.

— Washington is 15-6 vs spread in its last 21 games.

***********************

Thursday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Opening Day payrolls this season:
Toronto Blue Jays: $163,381,937. Record: 71-81
Milwaukee Brewers: $63,061,300. Record: 82-70

12) Phillies 7, Dodgers 5— Bigger news: After the game, Corey Seager left the Dodgers’ clubhouse limping, with medical/training staff.

11) Angels are 15-2 this season when Parker Bridwell is their starting pitcher, 61-72 when anyone else is the starting pitcher.

10) Marlins 9, Mets 2— Giancarlo Stanton hit his 56th homer of the season.

9) Diamondbacks’ star 1B Paul Goldschmidt has apparently seen the movie Billy Madison over 100 times; I’ve never seen it myself, so now I have to.

8) Royals 15, Blue Jays 5— Mike Moustakas hit his 37th homer, setting the all-time single season record for the Royals, previously held by Steve Balboni.

Some college football trends for this week:
7) Washington Huskies coach Petersen is 27-13 vs spread as a road favorite.

6) San Diego State won its last six games vs Air Force (5-1 vs spread).

5) Texas Tech covered seven of last nine tries as a road underdog.

Elsewhere in the world…….

4) Richard Sherman makes $13,631,000 this season to play football; he is a smart guy, went to Stanford, but he can’t seem to stop biting the hand that feeds him:

“From what I understand, the rule is for the gamblers, for Vegas, to make sure that the odds and everything are what they’re supposed to be, which is apparently what the league is concerned about when talking about injuries and things like that. So maybe somebody should look into that, because I thought we weren’t a gambling league and we were against all those things. But our injury report is specifically to make sure the gamblers get their odds right.”
Sherman, talking about NFL injury reports

So now Sherman is Captain Obvious; not sure what his point his, unless he is going to want the players to get a piece of the pie when gambling on the NFL becomes legal.

3) Interesting discussion on Inside the NFL this week on Showtime: Ray Lewis/Boomer Esiason were talking about how the lack of practice reps in the summer is hurting offensive play. Phil Simms called college football “flag football”, saying that spread offenses have hurt offensive line play in the NFL, as those players move on to the pros.

2) NL playoff race:
Giants 4, Rockies 0— Rockies lost 5 of last 7 games, are looking shaky.
Pirates 6, Brewers 4— Adam Frazier’s walk-off HR keeps Colorado atop Wild Card standings.
Rays 8, Cubs 1— Chicago’s 7-game winning streak comes to an end.
Cardinals 9, Reds 2— Big night for St Louis; everyone above them lost.

1) Padres’ backup catcher Rocky Gale hit his first big league homer in the 2nd inning last night, in his 12th MLB at-bat. The joy on his face was so obvious, it was outstanding; most times, guys try to play it cool as they round the bases, but Gale was just beaming— great to see.

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 3
September 21, 2017

NFL Week 3 Underdogs to Watch

Week 2's long list of underdogs getting 4 points or more on the spread didn't churn out too many SU winners, as only the Miami Dolphins (+4) were able to get an outright victory, and lucky to do so I might add. There were nine other teams on that list and only two others (Indianapolis +7, San Francisco +14), managed to even cover the point spread. Needless to say it wasn't a great week for big underdogs overall, but that could change in Week 3 as we've actually got a couple of teams on the list that were expected to be much better then they've shown in the first two weeks.

Before I get to this week's list of NFL teams getting +4 or more on the spread and their outright odds, I'd be remiss to not mention that for the first time for what feels like forever, the Cleveland Browns aren't on the card. In fact, Cleveland is laying 1.5 points on the road against the banged up Colts team that everyone wants to fade these days. For an organization that is 1-17 SU dating back to the start of last year, I don't care who they are playing, laying any kind of points with them on the road is tough to swallow. On to the list:

Underdogs that Qualify

Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+300)
New York Jets (+6); ML (+245)
Houston Texans (+13.5); ML (+780)
New Orleans Saints (+5); ML (+207)
New York Giants (+6); ML (+231)
Cincinnati Bengals (+9); ML (+358)

Right off the bat the list is much shorter this week and we don't have all the usual suspects on the list. Chicago and the New York Jets are back aboard this week, and of the two, I hate to admit it but the Jets might be the better option. Not only do oddsmakers think they'll do a bit better as home dogs vs. Miami as opposed to Chicago hosting Pittsburgh, but the fact that a few Jets players came out and said they were flat out disrespected by Marshawn Lynch and the Raiders a week ago with their sideline antics suggests to me that the Jets might come out with a few burrs under their saddle here. Don't forget it's not an easy spot for the Dolphins either as they've been displaced for weeks now thanks to the Hurricane, and eventually all that travelling is going to catch up to them.

Houston is the biggest underdog (and the juiciest ML price) this week, but for all the factors that they may have in their favor (extra rest, solid defense), I want no part of them up in Foxborough against the Patriots. Bill Belichick has been known to feast on rookie QB's in his own building and Watson and the Texans offense simply won't come close to putting up enough points to put a scare in the Pats. The Texans secondary is also quite banged up, so as long as Brady gets time in the pocket, he and his receivers should have a big day in getting the SU win.

Cincinnati is the other team coming off extra rest this week and after firing their OC during that break, the team and their fans are expecting drastically different results in a hurry. But there isn't really a way to sugarcoat the Bengals performance so far this year, and like Houston, they go on the road to one of the toughest places to play: Green Bay. With the Packers coming off a disappointing performance themselves, Green Bay could be out for blood, but bettors also have to guard against a bit of a letdown for Green Bay after last week's NFC Championship rematch. To me that suggests that taking the points with the Bengals ATS may be a decent option, but backing Cincinnati on the ML is just not something I think you can do right now. That leaves us with New Orleans (+207) and the New York Giants (+231) who are both on the road and facing division opponents.

The Saints are in Carolina to face a 2-0 SU Panthers team that looks a lot like the 2015 bunch that made it to the Super Bowl. Carolina has yet to find their stride offensively, but defensively they've been lights out as they've yet to allow a TD against in their two games played. That streak should get snapped against a Saints team that can be a prolific offensive team and needs to get a W soon at 0-2 SU.

The problem with New Orleans is that their defense continues to be absolute trash every year, and the 793 passing yards they've allowed in the first two weeks is the most ever in franchise history. Carolina isn't a great passing team historically, and with TE Greg Olsen now on the shelf, the Panthers passing attack is down another weapon. If you can trust the Saints defense to hold their own, then taking a shot with Drew Brees and company to do well against this vaunted Panthers defense is a bit more doable.

The Giants are are team nobody really wants a piece off after two disastrous performances in primetime to begin the year. While everyone was hoping a 19-3 loss in Dallas Week 1 was more of an anomaly without OBJ, his return in Week 2 didn't exactly bring different results. New York was embarrassed on their own field in a 24-10 loss to Detroit as WR's were dropping passes everywhere and the entire offense couldn't sustain a drive if their lives depended on it.

However, this Giants team (at least on paper) is quite a bit better than what they've shown so far, and I expect them to turn it around soon. This week they are in Philadelphia to take on a Eagles team that let one get away from them late a week ago, and return home for their home opener. Philly is 5-1 SU against the Giants in the last six meetings, but New York really has nowhere to go but “up” right now, and we've seen over the years that Eli and company like to be counted out by the masses. Philly's weakness on defense is definitely in the passing game – the Giants strength – and while the NFC East would still be within reach if New York starts out 0-3 SU, they've got to feel like this is a game they've got to have.

So after breaking it all down, I'm expecting the Giants (+231) and Saints (+207) to put up the most fight in terms of an outright upset this week (in that order), with the New York Jets (+245) a distant third if their professional pride kicks in after last week's loss in Oakland.

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 3 Sides
September 21, 2017

NFL Week 3 Best Bets – Sides

BetOnline.ag NFL Week 3 Best Bets – Sides Week 2's Best Bets brought a big goose egg as the Eagles let their game against KC get away late to miss out on the cover at +5.5, and the Chargers struggled with finding the endzone all day against Miami and ended up losing SU on a missed FG as time expired. Winless weeks are never good in this business, and with the BetOnline.ag Best Bets now sporting a 1-3 ATS record after two weeks, it's time to get this back to the .500 mark this week.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet #1: Pittsburgh Steelers -7

After Pittsburgh had a rocky outing Week 1 in Cleveland, and Chicago nearly upset the defending NFC Champ Atlanta Falcons that same week, the Steelers and Bears started to show more of their true colors in Week 2.

Pittsburgh dominated Minnesota from start to finish (albeit without Sam Bradford), as the Steelers offense looks like a Pittsburgh D of old and holds down the fort while their explosive offense gets things in order. Meanwhile, Chicago was blown out from start to finish by Tampa Bay, as it was an ugly performance all around for the Bears who are already considering putting in rookie QB Mitch Trubisky if things continue along this path.

Sadly for Bears fans, it's likely that the rest of the 2017 season continues to bring plenty of losses and although they are at home again – where they scared on an Atlanta team that took them lightly in Week 1 – Pittsburgh should come into town and steamroll this overmatched Chicago squad.

The Steelers are 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) with their offense yet to find their stride. RB Le'Veon Bell has had two weeks now to shake off the rust from missing all of preseason, and QB Ben Roethlisberger has yet to have a game where all of his receiving weapons are making significant contributions. That's not likely to last much longer, and that's got to be a scary feeling for the rest of the teams in the AFC.

Pittsburgh is also on a 6-1-1 ATS run after winning a game by 14+ points, and 4-0 ATS after allowing 14 points or less. No matter who starts at QB for Chicago, chances are they have a rough time even trying to get to 14 points against this Pittsburgh defense.

Finally, the Steelers aren't going to get lulled to sleep with a potential trap game here and take the Bears lightly. Pittsburgh made that mistake themselves in Week 1 against Cleveland, and there is no doubt that they've been watching game film all week of Atlanta doing that Week 1 against Chicago.

Chicago is on a 5-10 ATS run as home dogs against teams that are better than .500 on the year, and with a TNF game on tap against the Packers, this week's situation becomes even more dire. No team has yet to cover a spread this year prior to playing on TNF (0-4 ATS) and the Bears keep that trend alive this week with a double digit loss.

Best Bet #1: Buffalo Bills +3

Buffalo is another team yet to fully find their stride in 2017 as they struggled to beat a very bad Jets team in Week 1, and lost 9-3 in Carolina a week ago. Yet, the Bills are still 2-0 ATS this year and for all the offensive concerns they've had, their defense has held both opponents they've faced to 12 points or less.

That unit will be up against another great defense in Denver, but this is the Broncos first road game of the year and bettors shouldn't expect the Trevor Siemian-led offense to bring the same type of tenacity on the road as they've shown in their first two home games. In a year full of 'unders' in terms of totals results, the Broncos are 2-0 O/U thanks to their offense, and I believe that unit gets hit with a cold dose of reality this Sunday in Buffalo.

Buffalo's offense has spent all week in the meeting room scheming up ways to get some big plays this week (they didn't have a play bigger than 15 yards last week), and that aggressive mindset should serve them well. Denver's defense may be good, but we saw Philip Rivers have a solid day against them in Week 1, and if QB Tyrod Taylor can use his mobility to his advantage and keep the Broncos off balance in terms of the run and the pass, the Bills could actually light up the scoreboard a little bit this weekend.

Buffalo is 8-2 ATS after gaining less than 250 total yards in their last outing, and 7-2 ATS after going for less than 90 yards on the ground.

But this play is more about fading a Broncos team who send Siemian out on the road for the first time in 2017, were they were just 4-4 ATS a season ago. They've never had good success in Buffalo as an organization (0-4 ATS last four trips here), and with a big division game on deck against Oakland, this trip to Buffalo does qualify as a bit of a sandwich spot for Denver.

The low-spread of -3 after an impressive blowout win on national television over Dallas last week is baiting many bettors to lay the chalk, and according to VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers, 90%+ of the bets have already come on on the Broncos. That's a overwhelming majority I've got no problem going against in this situation, and even a little play on the Bills on the ML (+141) is worth considering.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


09/17/2017.............5-7-0..............41.67%............-13.50

09/14/2017.............0-2-0...............0.00%............-11.00

09/11/2017.............2-1-1..............66.67%...........+450

09/10/2017.............14-10-0...........58.33%..........+1500

09/07/2017.............2-0-0..............100.00%.........+1000


Totals...................23 - 20 - 1...........53.48%.........+5.00


Best Bets:

Date...........................ATS......TOTAL..... ..... ......O/U.......TOTAL..........TOTALS

09/17/2017.................1 - 2......-6.00..............3 - 3........-1.50...............- 7.50

09/14/2017.................0 - 1......-5.50..............0 - 1........-5.50..............- 11.00

Best Bets Total.............1 - 3......11.50..............3 - 4.......-7.00..............-18.50



THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LAR at SF 08:25 PM

LAR -3.0

U 40.5

[StarDust Bum]

Gurley-led Rams survive 49ers 41-39
September 21, 2017

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Jared Goff threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns and Todd Gurley ran for two TDs and caught another to help the Los Angeles Rams put up another big offensive performance with a 41-39 victory over the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday night.

The NFL's lowest-scoring team last year looks like a completely different outfit this season under first-year coach Sean McVay thanks to vastly improved play by Goff after a rough rookie season as the No. 1 overall pick.

The Rams (2-1) have also been helped by the additions of receivers Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods and the play-calling of McVay as they have scored 107 points through three games. That's the second-most in franchise history, trailing only the 119 by ''The Greatest Show on Turf'' squad in 2000.

This win didn't come easy as the Rams nearly blew a 15-point lead, giving up two late touchdowns, fumbling a kickoff return and failing to recover an onside kick. But Los Angeles managed to stop a potential game-tying 2-point conversion and then used an offensive pass interference penalty against Trent Taylor and a fourth-down sack by Aaron Donald to stop the Niners after the onside kick.

The 49ers (0-3) scored five touchdowns after failing to get any the first two weeks but still came up short in part because a missed extra point by Robbie Gould forced them to try for 2 on their late touchdown.

This time it was a tired defense that hurt San Francisco. After facing 79 plays in a 12-9 loss at Seattle on Sunday, the 49ers appeared to run out of gas on the short week as Goff frequently had wide-open receivers, especially on third down.

All three of Goff's touchdown passes came on third down, including a 13-yard pass to Watkins early in the fourth quarter that gave Los Angeles a 41-26 lead.

The Rams needed all that offense on a night where Brian Hoyer threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score.

QUICK START: The Rams took just 12 seconds to get on the board as Nickell Robey-Coleman intercepted Hoyer on the first play from scrimmage and returned it to the 3-yard line. Gurley ran it in on the next play to give the Rams a 7-0 lead.

DROUGHT BUSTER: The 49ers came into the game without a touchdown on the season but broke through in the first quarter with some help from the Rams. After Blake Countess jumped offside on a punt, the Niners took advantage of the second opportunity and drove to score on Hoyer's 9-yard run 126:43 into the season. That was the longest it took a team to score its first TD since 2006 when both Tampa Bay (143:03) and Oakland (127:10) took more time.

FOURTH DOWN CALLS: Both teams drove to the opposing 1 on their opening drives of the second half with help from a Willie Mays-style basket catch by Watkins and a perfect toe drag on the sideline by San Francisco's Pierre Garcon. But the Rams opted to kick a short field goal, while the 49ers went for it and converted on Carlos Hyde's 1-yard run that cut Los Angeles' lead to 27-20. Hyde added a second 1-yard run on fourth down in the fourth quarter.

INJURIES: Rams S Lamarcus Joyner left the game in the first half with a hamstring injury. ... Los Angeles C John Sullivan injured his groin in the second half and Watkins and Tavon Austin left with concussions. ... 49ers S Jaquiski Tartt (concussion), FB Kyle Juszczyk (neck), DL Tank Carradine (ankle) and LB Brock Coyle (concussion) all left with injuries in the second half.

UP NEXT: The Rams travel to Dallas on Oct. 1. The 49ers visit Arizona.