The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Bucs-Bears to play Sunday in Tampa
September 12, 2017

Officials approved Raymond James Stadium for Week 2 and the NFL agreed the game between the Buccaneers and Chicago Bears will be played as scheduled Sunday in Tampa, Fla.

The Bucs were still working through a bunch of logistical problems Monday.

First, they had to wait to see what damage to the infrastructure was done in Tampa by Hurricane Irma. However, it appears much of the area avoided what could have been a worse wallop.

"We have been working tirelessly with the Tampa Sports Authority, as well as the NFL league office, to ensure that Raymond James Stadium would be available to host our season opener against the Chicago Bears this Sunday." Buccaneers chief operating officer Brian Ford said.

"Hosting the game is important to us, as Tampa Bay has been through a lot over the past few days. We look forward to providing our fans and the entire region an opportunity to come together this Sunday to kick off our 2017 season."

-- Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson will have surgery on his left wrist and is expected to be sidelined two to three months, multiple outlets reported on Tuesday.

The Cardinals placed Johnson on injured reserve, but with a chance to return this season.

Johnson sought a second opinion after an early prognosis that he sustained a dislocated wrist in Sunday's 35-23 loss to the Detroit Lions.

The 25-year-old Johnson was initially injured while making a 24-yard reception in the third quarter, coach Bruce Arians said. Johnson returned on Arizona's next possession but fumbled on his next carry, which was recovered by the Lions.

The Cardinals re-signed Chris Johnson to help fill the void just 10 days after releasing him.

-- Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt isn't going to let a little thing like a finger injury slow him down, even if that injury reportedly dealt with a bone breaking through the skin.

When asked about his condition, Watt told the team's website on Tuesday that he was fine.

"It's inside my body, so it's still attached," the three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year said.

-- The Los Angeles Rams signed punter Johnny Hekker to a two-year contract extension, the team announced.

Hekker, who initially signed a six-year extension in 2014, will remain with the team through the 2022 season. The deal gives the 27-year-old $10 million guaranteed, the most ever for a punter, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported.

Hekker has led the league in punting yards the last two seasons, and his average of 46.9 yards per punt ranks third all-time in NFL history. He has been named a first-team All-Pro in three of the last four seasons.

-- New Orleans right tackle Zach Strief is expected to be sidelined a few weeks after sustaining an MCL sprain in his left knee during Monday's 29-19 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, according to multiple reports.

An MCL sprain typically is a four-week injury, which means Strief could be sidelined through the team's Week 5 bye.

Backup Senio Kelemete replaced Strief on Monday for New Orleans, which struggled to ignite its offense versus Minnesota. The 33-year-old Strief had missed just two games since 2013.

--The Philadelphia Eagles will sign rookie Jake Elliott off the Cincinnati Bengals' practice squad to replace fellow kicker Caleb Sturgis, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport on Tuesday.

Rapoport reported that Sturgis will be placed on injured reserve/designation to return after the kicker sustained a hip flexor injury in Philadelphia's season-opening 30-17 victory over the Washington Redskins on Sunday.

Elliott, who lost a competition to Randy Bullock this summer, was selected by Cincinnati with a fifth-round pick in the 2017 draft. He made 21 of 26 field goal attempts last season with Memphis, including two of three from outside of 50 yards.

--The Detroit Lions signed Jeff Locke on Tuesday to replace fellow punter Kasey Redfern, who was placed on injured reserve.

Locke averaged 43.2 yards per punt during four seasons with the Minnesota Vikings before being signed to a two-year contract with the Indianapolis Colts in the offseason. The Colts, however, released Locke last month.

Locke took part in workouts with the Lions on Monday after Redfern tore his ACL, MCL and part of the patellar tendon in his kicking leg in Sunday's season-opening 35-23 victory over the Arizona Cardinals.

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Watson reportedly will start Thursday
September 13, 2017

HOUSTON -- Houston Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start his first NFL game Thursday night against the Cincinnati Bengals, according to The Houston Chronicle.

The Chronicle reported that Watson's injured right ankle held up fine during practice Tuesday, removing the only potential obstacle to having the first-round draft pick make his starting debut at Paul Brown Stadium as the replacement for veteran Tom Savage.

During the portion of practice open to reporters, Watson took every snap.

The Texans are going with Watson for multiple reasons, including his superior mobility and elusiveness while operating behind a porous offensive line.

Although Watson was sacked four times during a 29-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and experienced some rough fundamental moments where he threw off his back foot, he did throw one touchdown pass and displayed an ability to escape pursuit.

Although the 0-1 AFC South franchise is poised to launch the Watson era, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien played it close to the vest Tuesday and declined to make it official and name a starting quarterback.

"I don't think there's a rule that says I have to publicly announce it," O'Brien said when asked if this was a potential game-time decision.

Unless Watson suffers a setback between now and kickoff, he's scheduled to start his first game since manufacturing a BCS national championship victory over Alabama with a game-winning touchdown pass.

"The health of any player is the first determinant in whether they play or not," O'Brien said of Watson, who didn't speak with reporters Tuesday.

After replacing Savage at halftime Sunday, Watson completed 12 of 23 passes for 102 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a 60.4 passer rating.

Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is already convinced his defense will be competing against Watson.

"We're kind of planning on it being Deshaun," Lewis said during a conference call with Houston reporters. "Because if they made the change like they did at halftime, I would imagine it would be him coming forward here, at least this week."

The first-round draft pick, consensus All-America and national championship game-winner from Clemson completed 52.2 percent of his throws against Jacksonville and had a second interception nullified by a penalty. He rushed for 12 yards on two carries.

"He's a playmaker with good instincts and he's young," Texans quarterbacks coach Sean Ryan said. "He's going to make some mistakes, and it's on us to keep working with him and minimize his mistakes and get rid of them, not repeat them, and keep moving forward with him."

The Texans have started Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer, Brandon Weeden, Brock Osweiler and Savage in O'Brien's time as head coach. Watson becomes the ninth different starting quarterback over the past four seasons.

O'Brien is hoping he won't continue to have a revolving door under center.

"I can tell you that we're pretty close to making a decision as to who's going to play," O'Brien said. "In this case, a lot of different factors go into it that aren't really in our control, maybe. I think that we'll make a good decision for the team.

"I try not to look too far into the future. It's definitely, obviously, for Thursday, but you're also saying you're going to try your best to stick with the decision."

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NFL opening line report: NFC Championship rematch highlights Week 2

We’ve got a pair of “Monday Night Football” games this evening to finish off Week 1, but it’s already time to look ahead to Week 2. We check in on the opening lines for four noteworthy games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City is arguably the biggest surprise team to emerge from Week 1, even though Andy Reid’s squad went 12-4 SU and was in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs traveled to New England for the Thursday nighter, hung tough with the Patriots through three quarters, then scored the last 21 points of the game in a 42-27 victory as a healthy 8-point underdog.

Philadelphia also started on the right foot on the road, dropping Washington 30-17 as a 2-point favorite Sunday. In the second half, the Eagles allowed only a field goal late in the third quarter.

“Bettors didn’t really like K.C. in the season opener, so we’ll see if they continue to pile on Philly like they did in Week 1,” Cooley said. “However, early sharp action has come in on the Chiefs. Both teams greatly exceeded expectations, so this opening number was dead for a reason.”

That early sharp action pushed the Chiefs to -5.

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints (no line)

Perhaps New England is the biggest surprise team of Week 1, getting pantsed in the fourth quarter on its home field. The Patriots, coming off the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history as they beat Atlanta, fell flat late in a 42-27 loss to Kansas City as an 8-point home favorite.

Meanwhile, New Orleans is among the four teams who have some Monday night work to do in Week 1 at Minnesota, before beginning prep for Week 2. The Saints, for years a perennial NFC contender, haven’t made the playoffs the last three years.

“We’ll wait to post a line for this game until the Saints complete their Monday nighter,” Cooley said. “If everything goes accordingly, the Pats will likely surface as 4- to 5-point road chalk. You know they’ll be chomping at the bit to erase that ugly opener, and the public won’t hesitate to lay an awkward digit.”

Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (no line)

Dallas didn’t light it up on offense, but had more than enough thanks to a stout defensive performance in the Sunday night game. The Cowboys gave up only a field goal to the NFC East rival New York Giants en route to a 19-3 home win laying 6 points.

Like New Orleans, Denver gets underway tonight, at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos sent Peyton Manning into the sunset with a Super Bowl victory after the 2015 season, but last year went 9-7 SU and ATS, missing the playoffs.

With Dallas going late Sunday and Denver playing tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on the opening line.

“We’ll likely open the road team as a 1-point favorite,” Cooley said. “There are certainly a lot of questions surrounding Denver, and hopefully some of those will be answered for everyone Monday night.”

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

It’s a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game, though not in the same venue, as Atlanta moves into its new digs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium under the Sunday night lights. The Falcons opened the season on the road, fending off Chicago 23-17 as a 6.5-point fave.

Green Bay, which lost that NFC title tilt 44-21 catching 6.5 points, got this season off to a solid start with a 17-9 victory over Seattle giving 2.5 points at home.

“A big early showdown in Hotlanta that should yield a huge ‘Sunday Night Football’ handle,” Cooley said. “Our power ratings have these two teams on a pretty even playing field, so we basically accounted for the home-field advantage. We’re expecting Packers money through and through.”

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Will lowest scoring NFL Week 1 in years lead to more Unders in Week 2?

The Houston Texans allowed 10 sacks and turned the ball over four times against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The NFL is back with Week 1 in the books and thank goodness it’s behind us. Outside of a few games, Week 1 was a painful watch. Few games were competitive in the fourth quarter and many offenses looked uglier than Jason Whitlock’s fedora collection.

Low scoring is the story of the weekend with the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants and the Indianapolis Colts all failing to put double digits on the scoreboard.

Last season, the St. Louis Rams – a squad with a historically horrendous offense – averaged a league-worst 262 yards per game. Eight teams tallied fewer than 250 yards of total offense in Week 1.

It’s no surprise that the Under was the best betting trend of the first weekend of the NFL season. The Under went 2-10 on Sunday and finished 5-10 for the week. The average points scored per game is 40.4 after the first 15 contests. The average points scored per game in Week 1 last season was about 4.5 points higher at 44.8.

The data tells us oddsmakers were hitting it out of the park with their Over/Under lines in Week 1 from 2013 to 2016. The differential between the average total and the average game score was less than a point in each year and the Over/Under record was never more than a game off an 8-8 mark.

We can also see that scoring in Week 1 is on a three-year decline and there’s a gulf of 8.5 points between the high year of the sample in 2012 when the average points scored per game was 49.4 and this season.

Bettors will be asking themselves if the low scoring will continue into Week 2. Oddsmakers adjusted to the Week 1 results by setting the lowest average game totals in Week 2 since 2011.

Despite Vegas’ re-calibration, sharp bettors still think there are opportunities moving forward betting the Under on the league’s worst offenses.

Ted Sevransky says he has concerns about the offensive production from the six teams held under 10 points in the first week.

“All six teams had significant offensive line concerns coming into the season, and all six of them failed their first test pretty badly,” Sevransky says. “I have already bet Unders on several of their matchups this week [Week 2] and may still bet more.”

Let’s review each of these offensively-challenged sides and where they play in Week 2.

Cincinnati Bengals

Quarterback Andy Dalton turned the ball over five times in what, very well, could have been his worst career outing as a pro player. The Bengals put up a goose egg on the scoreboard marking the first time they’ve been shut out since Week 7 in 2014.

After the game Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis said, “I don’t know if I’ve ever been in such a disappointing football game.”

Dating back to last year, the Under is now 8-1 in Cincy’s last nine regular season games. The Bengals have had a middle of the pack offense for the last three years. It’s safe to assume they’ll finish with around the 15th best offense again this season.

The lowest total (38.5) on the board is Thursday night’s game between the Texans and Bengals.

Houston Texans

Houston allowed 10 sacks and turned the ball over four times against Jacksonville on Sunday. Texans coach Bill O’Brien benched his starting quarterback after the first two quarters of the season.

We don’t know yet if the Texans will stick with rookie DeShaun Watson under center or if they’ll go back to Tom Savage on Thursday against Cincinnati.

The offensive line is a major concern and it sure would help if the team could come to terms with their best lineman. Left tackle Duane Brown, a three-time Pro Bowler, is still holding out for a new contract.

Five of the Jags’ 10 sacks on Sunday came when they rushed just four defenders.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback Andrew Luck is ruled out against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2 which means bettors are likely to see another week with Scott Tolzien under center for the Colts. Without Luck, there’s a good argument to be made that Indy is the least talented team in the league.

The total for the Cards-Colts game opened at 44.5.

New York Giants

The G-Men are another case of a club that was missing its best player in Week 1. Receiver Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t play because of an ankle sprain, although the Giants lack of scoring punch isn’t a one-game problem.

New York hasn’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 12 of last season and that game was against the Cleveland Browns. The Under is now 8-1 in the Giants’ last nine regular season games.

The line on this game has yet to be released as oddsmakers wait to hear on the availability of Beckham Jr.

Seattle Seahawks

The offensive line continues to be a problem for the Seahawks. Their starting left tackle went on the IR in preseason and there was no real effort made at replacing him besides looking at their own depth chart.

Seattle’s offense used to be run-orientated but last year the club finished 25th in rushing yards per game. There’s still a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball and Green Bay’s defense may prove to be an above average unit as the season progresses.

Seattle hosts its division rival San Fran on Sunday and the total is set at 43.5.

San Francisco 49ers

Speaking of those Niners – they’re coming off a game which they failed to find the end zone once. The Niners abandoned the run game after the Panthers scored on their first possession in the second half to make it 20-0.

A 70-30 pass/run ratio isn’t going to lead to many wins or scores for the 49ers considering Brian Hoyer is their starting quarterback and Pierre Garcon projects to be their best receiver.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 14

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HOUSTON (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/14/2017, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 17

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TENNESSEE (0 - 1) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (1 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (0 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 108-77 ATS (+23.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (1 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 88-62 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (0 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (0-0) - 9/17/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 46-71 ATS (-32.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (0-0) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 40-17 ATS (+21.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 57-81 ATS (-32.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 73-101 ATS (-38.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (0 - 1) at LA RAMS (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 176-224 ATS (-70.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-224 ATS (-70.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-114 ATS (-45.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-176 ATS (-67.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-176 ATS (-56.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (1 - 0) at DENVER (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 1) at SEATTLE (0 - 1) - 9/17/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 0) - 9/17/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 232-189 ATS (+24.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 232-189 ATS (+24.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 18

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DETROIT (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/18/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 84-113 ATS (-40.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 14

9:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games ,
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home


Sunday, September 17

2:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games at home
Kansas City is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home

2:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. TAMPA BAY
Chicago is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

2:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 1-5-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games

2:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New England

2:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 9 games
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Cleveland

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CAROLINA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games at home

5:05 PM
MIAMI vs. LOS ANGELES
Miami is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
NY JETS vs. OAKLAND
NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

5:25 PM
DALLAS vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Dallas

5:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

5:25 PM
WASHINGTON vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 11 games when playing Washington
Los Angeles is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington

9:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
Green Bay is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games


Sunday, September 18

9:30 PM
DETROIT vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home

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NFL Week 2 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

If you like the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2, you might just want to come back on the weekend and see where the line sits.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm...” in Week 2, including a curious opening number put up by one sportsbook for the Vikings-Steelers game that may end up being a better number than their re-post.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 38.5)

NFL week two kicks off a Thursday night game which pits two teams that clearly under achieved in their respective openers.

Houston visits Cincinnati and questions outweigh answers for each team involved in this contest. The Texans will be entering practice week with the full understanding that QB Deshaun Watson will be starting. Though he didn’t embarrass himself in his debut, it will take more than the limited time he had under center to truly master the position at the professional level.

There’s always a tendency when a back-up player enters the action and performs well to have a letdown of sorts the next time out. That’s because the energy and spontaneity is short lived and the pack catches up to the leader - that will likely be the case with Watson.

In the case of the Bengals, they are counting on QB Andy Dalton‘s return to form after his disastrous opener. A little ying-yang for both quarterbacks.

This line opened a very questionable -3 on the home favorites and was quickly unmasked as a horrible starting point. As of Tuesday, the general consensus was already tipping it to -5. I say, this is still too low and think the line will be at -6 to -6.5 by kickoff.

What appears to be more of a must-win game for the Bengals is translating into heavy wood on Cincinnati early in the week, and most likely all the way through Sunday. If there’s going to be any Houston action, you can bet on it coming very late when underdog backers see the line has stalled.

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 43)

Chicago visits Tampa Bay and I agree with the knee-jerk reaction of the early money on Tampa Bay.

This opened at -6.5 and by Tuesday was a universal -7. The advantage for chalk players in this game is that it will take a monumental amount of money to get off the key -7, so there’s no need to rush in on this game early in the week.

A huge advantage for Tampa Bay in having their opener canceled is that the Buccaneers don’t have any tape to give to the Bears to dissect. Tampa Bay torched this team last year in Florida and the circumstances seem right for the results to mirror that game. You always like to be on the side of the team that has the incentive and energy, and with this game being possibly the first major event since the horrific weather in the south, the unity of the team and its fans may peak perfectly for the home town Bucs. Emotion is a big factor for almost anything in life.

At -7, you might think the wise guys take the dog. I say let them. This line won’t get any higher. It’s the typical game that will be teased down to PK for most parlay players. Call this a gut feeling, but this game gets out of hand for Chicago and the white towel is raised early.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 45)

Minnesota is at Pittsburgh in a game that’s been slow to be exposed by bookmakers early in the week.

In a curious sequence of events, Pinnacle sported a -4 on the home favorites and within a minute, took down the game and reposted at -7. My feeling was that the original -4 was good. Those bookmakers who like to copy the line and hang whatever is out there, posted -7’s and have already been hit on the dog and are resting at –6.5.

At this point, I definitely see more money being drawn to the underdog after a solid performance by the Vikings in Week 1. I know the public has a short memory, me being in that group as well, but seeing the Steelers struggle with the Browns and Minnesota’s sharp play, I have to think this line will be closer to the original -4 than -7 by kickoff.

So, with that being said, the value on Minnesota is to grab the line early in the week. If you like the Steelers, you might just want to come back on the weekend and see where the line sits and benefit from the over-reactionaries. My feeling is that this game is way closer than the spread indicates.

Pinnacle will realize that their first opinion was their best in this game. They, like the rest of the sportsbooks, will probably need Pittsburgh by the time this game closes.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Texans (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)— Watson gets his first NFL start after playing 2nd half LW; he led Houston’s only TD drive. Texan QB’s were sacked 10 times LW and had 94 penalty yards in a cruddy opener. Under O’Brien, Texans are 12-5-1 vs spread off a loss; they’re 7-11-1 as a road underdog. Bengals lost 20-0 at home to Ravens LW, turning ball over five times on 11 drives; they had ball in red zone three times, came up empty. Houston won seven of last nine series games, winning 10-6/12-10 over Bengals last two years. Texans won last three visits here, by 11-1-4 points. Houston lost last two road openers 24-17/27-0; under is 4-0 in their last six AO’s. Last four years, Bengals are 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss.

Titans (0-1) @ Jaguars (1-0)— Hurricane Irma disrupted life in Jacksonville this week. Home side won last six series games; teams have split series last 8 years. Titans lost last three visits here, by 8-6-21 points. Tennessee won its last four road openers SU, all as an underdog, allowing 12 pts/game- under is 16-3 in their last 19 AO’s. Home side won last six series games; Titans lost last three visits here, by 8-6-21 points. Average total in last three series games, 64.7. Jaguars lost last five home openers, losing 4 of 5 games by 11+ points. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 HO’s. Jax is 5-4 as a home underdog the last two years- since 2011, they’re 7-14 vs spread coming off a win. Last three years, Titans are 0-2-1 as a road favorite.

Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (1-0)— Since 2012, Baltimore is 13-18-1 as a home favorite; last there years, they’re 11-11 coming off a win. Ravens forced five turnovers (+4), allowed only 221 yards in 20-0 win at Cincy LW. Browns are 1-15 SU on road, 6-10 as road underdogs last two years; they lost home opener 21-18 to Pitt- they were 3-17 on 3rd down, had punt blocked for TD. Cleveland lost its last five road openers, is 1-10 in its last 11; over is 8-4 in their last 12 AO’s. Ravens are 10-2 in last 12 home openers; three of last four stayed under. Ravens won five of last six series games; Browns lost 8 of last 9 visits here. Baltimore swept series 25-20/28-7 LY. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. First road tilt for rookie QB Kiser, who was sacked 7 times by Steelers LW.

Bills (1-0) @ Panthers (1-0)— Buffalo ran ball for 190 yards in 21-12 win over Jets LW; they were 8-17 on 3rd down, had 8 plays of 20+ yards, TD drives of 77-64-80 yards. Bills are 9-6 vs spread in last 15 road openers, 3-5 SU in last eight. Over is 4-2 in their last six AO’s. Carolina won its opener easily at SF; red flag is their two TD drives were just 42-28 yards- they held 49ers to 217 yards, started three drives in SF territory. Panthers won four of last five home openers, covered five of last six; under is 3-1 in their last four. Buffalo is 5-1 in this seldom-played series, winning both visits here, 30-14/20-9. Carolina’s only series win was in 2005. Last three years, NFC South home teams are 17-25-2 vs spread as a non-divisional home favorite.

Patriots (0-1) @ Saints (0-1)— Last three times New England lost in Week 1, they won Super Bowl that year- they went 2-1 in Week 2 those years. Last four years, NE is 10-2 vs spread coming off a loss; they were 6-1 as a road favorite LY, after being 4-12 from 2013-15. Short week for Saints coming off 29-19 loss in Minnesota; NO drove to red zone five time in eight drives Monday, but had only one TD, kicked four goals- they miss WR Snead (suspended) in red zone. Patriots won five of last six road openers; they were underdog in last two. Patriots are 9-4 in series, winning four of five visits to Bourbon Street- they lost last visit here, 38-17 in 2009. Saints are 2-3 in last five home openers; under is 5-2 in last seven.

Cardinals (0-1) @ Colts (0-1)— Indy has severe QB issues until Luck returns; he is out here. They haven’t said if Tolzien/Brissett will start; to me, Brissett is better choice. Colts offense was outscored 16-9 by LA’s defense LW. Colts are 8-2 as home underdog under Pagano. Arizona is 10-5 as a road favorite under Arians; they turned ball over four times (-3) in Detroit LW, ran ball for only 45 yards, scored only 16 points in 4 red zone drives. Arians returns to Indy, where he was interim coach for Colts when Pagano was ill a few years back. Indy won four of last five series games, losing last matchup 40-11 in desert in ’13. Redbirds lost last three visits here; their last win in Indy was in 1984. Colts are 0-3 in last three home openers; over is 7-5 in their last 12— they lost last four Week 2 games.

Eagles (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)— Andy Reid hosts his old team here. Last 15 years, NFL teams coming off the Week 1 Thursday game are 17-13 vs spread in Week 2; Chiefs rang up 537 yards on Patriots in Foxboro; five of their six TD drives were 75+ yards. KC is 6-10 as a home favorite the last two years; they lost S Berry for year (achilles) in Foxboro. Eagles are 11-10 as road dogs the last four years; they’re 10-2 vs spread vs AFC teams, 14-20 coming off a win. Wentz is 2-7 as a road starter; their road drives last week were 56-39 yards. Philly is 4-3 in series where road team won five of seven games- they’re 3-1 in four visits to Arrowhead. Chiefs are 3-6 in last nine HO’s (over 4-2 in last six)- last six years, they’re 1-5 in Week 2.

Vikings (1-0) @ Steelers (1-0)— Short week off a win for Viking squad that gained 470 yards with no turnovers in 29-19 home win Monday nite; they had 10 plays of 20+ yards. Under Zimmer, they’re 15-6 vs spread coming off a win, 11-6 as road dogs. Last five years, Steelers are 19-12 as home faves, 28-17-1 coming off a win- they had 7 sacks LW. Pitt won three of last four series games; Vikings won last meeting 34-27 in London 4 years ago. Vikes lost last two visits here, 21-16/27-17. Minnesota is 4-9 in last 13 road openers; under is 5-2 in last seven. Steelers are 13-1 in last 14 home openers, 9-3 vs spread in last 12— under is 6-2 in their last eight. Big Ben was 11-11/182 targeting Brown LW; he was 12-25/73 with all his other passes. Vikings will try and take Brown away.

Bears (0-1) @ Buccaneers (0-0)— Hurricane Irma disrupted things in Bay Area, but game will go on as scheduled. Bucs didn’t play LW; they’re 2-8 vs spread as a home favorite last three years, 1-2 under Koetter. Chicago is 7-7-1 as a road underdog under Fox; they’re 9-11-1 coming off a loss. Bears had chance to win opener- they had ball on 10-yard line down 23-17 in last 30 seconds. Tampa Bay (+2.5) waxed the Bears 36-10 here LY, ending 3-game skid vs Chicago. Teams split last six series games played here. Chicago is 2-4 in last six road openers; under is 11-2 in their last 13. Tampa Bay is 3-8 in last 11 openers; they lost last four home openers, and were favored in last three. Under is 8-4-1 in their last 13 HO’s.

Dolphins (0-0) @ Chargers (0-1)— Dolphins practiced in Oxnard all week after re-gathering after their makeshift bye week; Fish are 3-1 in last four season openers. Miami is 15-17 SU on road last four years, 7-10 as road underdog since ’14. Short week for Chargers after their late rally in Denver fell just short Monday nite. LA ran ball for just 64 yards; 2 of their 3 TD drives started in Denver territory. Home opener for Bolts in their new, smaller temporary home venue. Miami won three of last four series games; they lost three of last four visits to San Diego. Home side won six of last seven series games. Miami is 3-9 in last 12 road openers; under is 13-2 in their last 15. Bolts are 6-1 in last seven HO’s, covering last five, but this is a new home for them.

Jets (0-1) @ Raiders (1-0)— Jets are 2-5-2 as road underdogs under Bowles; they ran ball for only 38 yards, were outgained 408-214 LW in 21-12 loss at Buffalo. Last 2+ years, Gang Green is 12-16 vs spread coming off a loss. Raiders gained 359 yards, didn’t turn ball over in 26-16 win at Tennessee LW. Oakland is 4-5 as home favorite under Del Rio- this is first time since ‘03 they’ve been a double digit favorite. Home side won last four series games; Jets lost last three visits to Oakland, by 3-10-14 points. Jets’ last win in Oakland was in ’03. Raiders won last two home openers; they’re 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten. Over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 HO’s. Since 2010, Jets are 3-1-1 against the spread as a double digit underdog.

Redskins (0-1) @ Rams (1-0)— Sean McVay worked for Washington the last six years, so lot of familiarity here. Redskins allowed 298 PY to Eagles LW, were outgained 356-264 as Philly was 8-14 on 3rd down. Skins are 11-11 as road underdogs under Gruden, 9-4 coming off a loss the last two years. Rams threw for 310 yards LW, held Colts to 0-10 on 3rd down, but that was vs backup QB’s. Since 2013, LA is 7-6 as a home favorite; they’re 10-14 vs spread coming off a win. Teams split last six meetings; 5 of last 7 series totals were 36 or less. Washington is 2-7 in last nine road openers; over is 6-2 in their last eight. Rams had a 13-yard edge in field position last week- their TD drives were 69-58-57 yards.

Cowboys (1-0) @ Broncos (1-0)— Dallas held Giants to 233 yards, 3 points in opening win LW; Cowboys are 7-3 as road favorite the last three years- they’re 16-7-1 in last 24 games vs AFC foes. Dallas had only one TD, kicked four FG’s last week, a red flag. Short week for Broncos after they held on for 24-21 win after almost blowing 24-7 lead; Denver is 3-1 as a home underdog the last four years- they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games vs NFC teams. Denver won last five series games, winning last one 51-48 in 2013, but that was with now-retired Manning at QB. Cowboys lost four of last five visits here, with last Mile High win in 1992. Dallas covered its last six road openers (4-2 SU); four of last five stayed under total.

49ers (0-1) @ Seahawks (0-1)— Under Carroll, Seattle is 25-14-1 vs spread coming off a loss, 26-15 as a home favorite- last three years, they’re 8-3 as a double digit favorite. Seahawks’ D held Rodgers to 17 points LW; one of the two TD’s was a 6-yard drive. 49ers gained only 217 yards, had 73 penalty yards in 23-3 home loss to Carolina; Niners are 5-10 as road underdogs the last two years. Seattle won its last eight home openers (7-1 vs spread); under is 13-2-1 in their last 16. Seahawks won last seven series games; 49ers lost last last six visits here, with four of six losses by 16+ points. Seattle is 10-1-1 vs spread in last 12 series games. 49ers lost three of last four road openers; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14. 49ers are 1-5 as a double digit underdog the last two years.

Packers (1-0) @ Falcons (1-0)— New dome opens in Atlanta. Falcons beat Green Bay twice LY, 33-32, 44-21, both in GeorgiaDome— home side won last four series games. Falcons threw for 392 yards in the 44-21 playoff win. Green Bay held Seattle to 225 yards LW; the last four years they’re 3-8 as a road underdog. Last three years, Pack is 17-12-1 vs spread coming off a win. Atlanta held on at end to win its opener in Chicago; they’re 6-16 as home favorites the last four years, 3-10 under Quinn. Average total in last three series games is 70. Packers won last two road openers (31-23/27-23); over is 9-2 in their last 11. Falcons won/covered 8 of last 9 home openers, but this is a new home for them.

Lions (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)— How much of Giants’ anemic offense LW was Dallas’ defense; how much was absence of Beckham? Big Blue was 3-1-1 coming off a loss LY- they’re 12-10 in last 22 games as a home favorite. Giants are 2-9-1 vs spread the week after playing Dallas. Detroit is 7-11 as a road dog under Caldwell; 11-13-2, coming off a win. Giants won four of last five series games; Detroit lost its last two visits here, 28-20/17-6- their last series win here was in 2004. Detroit is 4-2 vs spread in last six Monday night games. Giants covered five of last six Monday nite home games. Detroit is 2-7 in last nine road openers; over is 8-3-1 in their last 12. Giants are 1-4 in last five home openers, scoring 18 pts/game (under 4-1). Giants didn’t force any 3/outs LW; they lost field position by 13 yards.

2017 week-by-week results

Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC

1) 8-6-1 7-7-1 4-11

T) 8-6-1 7-7-1 4-11

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First Coach Fired in 2017
September 13, 2017

With Week 1 of the NFL season in the books, the seat underneath the backside of a few head coaches got much warmer.

BetDSI.eu has opened updated odds on who will be the first head coach fired during the 2017 regular season. Todd Bowles remains the favorite, but Chuck Pagano has closed the gap. Marvin Lewis and Bill O’Brien saw the biggest drops in odds after embarrassing opening losses at home.

You can find opening odds below, and current odds here.

First NFL Head Coach Fired - per BetDSI.eu

Todd Bowles (NYJ) +300
Chuck Pagano (IND) +350
Hue Jackson (CLE) +675
Marvin Lewis (CIN) +700
Bill O'Brien (HOU) +800
John Fox (CHI) +800
Jim Caldwell (DET) +1200
Ben McAdoo (NYG) +1200
Sean Payton (NO) +1400
Adam Gase (MIA) +1500
Jay Gruden (WAS) +1800
Mike Mularkey (TEN) +2300
Mike Zimmer (MIN) +2500
Doug Marrone (JAX) +3000
Dan Quinn (ATL) +3300
Mike McCarthy (GB) +3300
Ron Rivera (CAR) +3300
Dirk Koetter (TB) +3300
Sean McDermott (BUF) +3500
Doug Pederson (PHI) +3500
Sean McVay (LAR) +4500
Jason Garrett (DAL) +4500
Vance Joseph (DEN) +5000
Anthony Lynn (LAC) +5500
Bruce Arians (ARZ) +5500
Jack Del Rio (OAK) +6000
John Harbaugh (BAL) +6000
Mike Tomlin (PIT) +6000
Kyle Shanahan (SF) +7500
Andy Reid (KC) +10000
Pete Carroll (SEA) +15000
Bill Belichick (NE) +50000

Odds Subject to Change

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 2
September 13, 2017

NFL Week 2 Underdogs to Watch

Week 1 of this year's NFL season is officially in the books and it was a successful one for this weekly underdog piece once again. Of the five teams that were getting +4 or better on the point spread, only one of them won outright – although they did go 4-1 ATS – the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags were the team I had isolated as the best bet of the bunch, and even if some of you had put a small flyer on the Jets, you still came out ahead with the Jags odds at +220.

Week 2 sees many more NFL teams getting 4 points or more on the spread, meaning that there are more matchups to wade through, but at the same time, more possibilities to cash in on upsets. There are two games were teams are getting about two TD's on the spread (NYJ, San Francisco), and many more in that 6.5 to 7-point range. So let's get right to this week's list and try to cash another outright winner or two.

Underdogs that Qualify

Cleveland Browns (+9); ML (+315)

Buffalo Bills (+7); ML (+270)

New Orleans Saints (+6.5); ML (+245)

Indianapolis Colts (+7); ML (+275)

Philadelphia Eagles (+6); ML (+220)

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5); ML (+205)

Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+260)

Miami Dolphins (+4); ML (+175)

New York Jets (+14); ML (+700)

San Francisco 49ers (+14); ML (+650)


With a list this big it's important to eliminate some teams right off the bat. San Francisco and the New York Jets aren't close to being considered for an outright ML play with road games in Seattle and Oakland respectively. If it happens, it happens, and fans of those two teams who are basically blindly betting their team each week will have a solid weekend.

After that I'm eliminating our frequent flyer team the Cleveland Browns, as rookie NFL QB's in their first ever road game is a situational spot I look to avoid each and every year. Against a division rival (Baltimore) that is coming off a shutout win over another AFC North foe makes even taking the +9 points on the spread a wager I'm not looking to take.

Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Chicago are the final three teams I'm flat out ignoring this week. The Bills looked like nothing special against the hapless Jets in Week 1, and this week they are on the road in Carolina. That's not a spot I'd consider bypassing the points if you are considering a Buffalo play this week.

Indianapolis will get no investment from me SU or ATS likely until Andrew Luck returns, or at the very least I see some capable play from whomever is in their at QB. Tolzien had his shot a week ago, and playing a guy like Brissett who's only had a few weeks in the organization is tough. As touchdown home underdogs, grabbing the points is a little tempting, especially when you consider that Arizona could be extremely deflated in this spot after losing their #1 RB (and arguably best player) for the bulk of this season.

Now that I've narrowed this list down, it leaves us with the Saints (+245), Eagles (+220), Vikings (+205), and Dolphins (+175).

Beginning with Miami as they've got the lowest spread, they travel cross country to play the Chargers on a short week. Miami has been itching for this season to get started after their Week 1 game was postponed, and while rest is clearly on their side here, rust could also be a significant issue for them as well. L.A. tried their best to comeback and beat Denver on MNF, and while they came up short, Philip Rivers and company showed signs that they'll be a much improved team from their 5-11 SU record a year ago. It's a hard pass on Miami ML here.

Minnesota is another team on a short week in Week 2 and for as impressive as they looked in blowing out the Saints, going out on the road to face Pittsburgh this week is tough. The Vikings have already seen significant support on the spread as their number opened up as high as +6.5 at most shops, but in my eyes all that support smells like a gross over-reaction to Week 1's results. Remember, Pittsburgh was the favorite to win the AFC this year if you take the Patriots out of the equation, and I believe the Steelers put their best foot forward in Week 2 and blow out this Minnesota team.

Which leaves us with the Saints (+245) and Eagles (+220) at the best candidates on this list to pull off outright upsets, and they are somewhat connected.

New Orleans did not look good for the bulk of their MNF game and this week they are at home and hosting a angry New England Patriots team that got blown out themselves. Many bettors (casual and sharp) will have no problem buying into the narrative of New England coming out and blowing the doors of the Saints this week in an attempt for redemption, but I wouldn't be so quick to buy in.

For one, the Patriots defense looked atrocious (as they did all preseason), and it might not matter how well Brady and the Pats offense plays, you give Drew Brees and Sean Payton a game where they can attack an atrocious defense and they'll make you pay. The total for this game is already in the 56 range, and when plenty of points are expected, that means that the underdog – no matter how big the spread – is likely “live” to a degree. The Saints at home have always been a tough out, and while there aren't many out there who can fathom the Patriots starting 0-2 SU, it really is quite possible this week.

Philadelphia is in Kansas City to take on the same Chiefs team that lit up that New England team a week ago, and has likely spent their extra time off reading plenty of press clippings about themselves and how great they looked up in Foxborough. That KC win will give them solid backing from bettors this week, but the Eagles didn't look too bad themselves in Week 1, and they'd love to do their part in popping this bubble of greatness the Chiefs have surrounding them over the past 10 days.

The loss of Eric Berry on the back end is a huge blow to KC as well, and while it didn't seem to hurt them for the rest of that Pats game, it's often that first game after an key injury where a team really feels the loss. The Eagles are more than capable of pulling off this outright upset, and with KC having a division road game on deck (at L.A. Chargers), Philly could steal one this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Bengals, Lewis in trouble
September 13, 2017

Fire Lewis! Free Andy Dalton!

Back during the offseason, BetOnline.ag posted odds for the first coach to be fired in 2017. Marvin Lewis was +550 in this market and I pontificated that it was silly to think that he’d be fired this year after he’d failed to do anything since being hired. After getting blanked by a division rival at home in Week 1, it’s probably a good time to revisit this.

One of the elements that makes working in the NFL so difficult is the fragility of the infrastructure. Owners, fans and pundits can be far too impatient with waiting for a team to grow. An inability to let a promising situation play out leads to coaches getting fired or quarterbacks being dropped faster than they deserve.

There are instances where this is good, but if you get in the habit of refurbishing the living room too often you end with a management situation like the San Francisco 49ers or a quarterback situation like that in Cleveland or Houston. It just feels never ending.

So something has to be said about permanence in the NFL. It’s not that common. Bill Belichik was hired as the head coach of the New England Patriots back in 2000 and remains the longest tenured coach in the league. Marvin Lewis is second having been hired in 2003. While we’re at it…

LONGEST TENURED COACHES IN NFL
Bill Belichik (New England Patriots, 2000)
Marvin Lewis (Cincinnati Bengals, 2003)
Mike McCarthy (Green Bay Packers, 2006)
Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints, 2006)
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers, 2007)
Jim Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens, 2008)

Do you notice what all of those guys have in common except for Marvin Lewis? All of them have won a Super Bowl for their franchises. That’s a big reason why they’ve gained so much loyalty with their owners. In a “What have you done for me lately” league, that is the ultimate rebuttal.

Winning a Super Bowl isn’t easy but it can save a man and his staff their damn jobs. So maybe Marvin has done something else to retain his position in Cincinnati? Well that’s not the case, and he certainly won’t take this group to win this year’s Super Bowl as +2800 longshots either.

Lewis has gone 118-103 during his longstanding tenure with the Bengals. That includes seven playoff appearances and zero playoff victories. That record also gives him a .533 winning percentage, which is the lowest of any active head coach that had been hired prior to 2014.

At some point, we’ve seen what we’ve seen from Marvin Lewis. A lot of people are making the mistake of tying Andy Dalton to Marvin Lewis, and discerning which one of these guys is the problem is a chicken-egg argument. The difference is that talent wins out in the NFL from a broad sense unless you have a bulletproof coach in the ranks. The Bengals do not.

Dalton is in his 7th season and at just 29 years old, he’s still young for a quarterback. And the problem might not be a Dalton, a player who has proven that he can light up the scoreboard and stabilize his team. To his credit, Dalton has missed just three games in his career, and all of them were in 2013.

Of course, it’s impossible to make a positive case for Dalton because he’s only ranked in the top-10 for passing yards once and that was back in 2014 when he threw for a career high 4,293 yards and 33 touchdowns against 20 picks.

Asking whether or not Dalton is capable of being “the man on a championship team” is impossible to answer because we’ve never seen him play out of the looming shadow of Marvin Lewis. He’s undersized at 6-foot-2 but he’s an obvious starter in the league. Yes, it’s a sad state of affairs when your case for whether a guy deserves to start is “he’s better than half the league” but that’s the exact argument for Dalton.

Plus, Andy Dalton doesn’t cost you diddly! He signed a six-year extension worth $96 million which will pay him just $13.1 million this year before he can be cut. This is as pivotal a season for Dalton as it is for Marvin Lewis.

The point is that there’s hope for Andy Dalton. There’s no hope for Marvin Lewis. He is what he is, and the two don’t have to be inextricably tied together just because they’ve been on the same team for seven seasons.

In other words, free Andy Dalton! I think? We won’t know until the Bengals cut ties with Marvin Lewis first.

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Texans LB Cushing suspended 10 games
September 13, 2017

Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing has been suspended 10 games without pay for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances, the league announced Wednesday.

Cushing's second career suspension begins immediately, although he was already ruled out of Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) after sustaining a concussion in last weekend's season-opening 29-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The 30-year-old Cushing will be eligible to return to the roster on Nov. 28, one day after Houston (0-1) faces the Baltimore Ravens.

Cushing is due a $6.756 million base salary this season. He will forfeit 10 game checks at a cost of $3.97 million, with a per week loss of $397,411.

Cushing's lawyer, Harvey Steinberg, said in a statement to ESPN that the linebacker "is aware of the negative impact he has had on his team and most important his fans. It is with the deepest remorse that he humbly apologizes to his fans, teammates and coaches."

Cushing will not appeal, according to Steinberg.

The 6-foot-3, 255-pound Cushing previously was suspended four games by the league in 2010 for testing positive for a fertility drug that was on the NFL's banned substances list. He said in a statement at the time that he tested positive for a non-steroidal banned substance, but his appeal proved unsuccessful.

Cushing, who had 65 tackles in 13 starts last season, underwent shoulder surgery during the offseason. He has collected 652 tackles, 13.0 sacks and eight interceptions in 100 career games since being selected by Houston with the 15th overall pick of the 2009 draft.

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NFL notebook: Texans' Cushing suspended 10 games
September 13, 2017

Houston Texans linebacker Brian Cushing has been suspended 10 games without pay for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances, the league announced Wednesday.

Cushing's suspension begins immediately, although he was already ruled out of Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) after sustaining a concussion in last weekend's season-opening 29-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The 30-year-old Cushing will be eligible to return to the roster on Nov. 28, one day after Houston (0-1) faces the Baltimore Ravens.

Cushing is due a $6.756 million base salary this season. He will forfeit 10 game checks at a cost of $3.97 million, with a per week loss of $397,411.

The 6-foot-3, 255-pound Cushing previously was suspended four games by the league in 2010 for testing positive for a fertility drug that was on the NFL's banned substances list.

--Left tackle Donald Penn is "closing in" on a two-year contract extension with the Oakland Raiders, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported.

The deal, which Rapoport reported could be finalized before the end of the week, would keep Penn with the Raiders through the 2019 season.

Penn ended his 26-day holdout and returned to practice last Wednesday. The 34-year-old is playing the final season of a two-year, $11.9 million contract he signed in March 2016.

--The Green Bay Packers released defensive tackle Ricky Jean Francois, the team announced.

Jean Francois played all of six snaps in Sunday's 17-9 victory over the Seattle Seahawks after signing a one-year, $2 million contract in free agency this summer. He also received a $250,000 signing bonus.

The 30-year-old is eligible for termination pay as the Packers would owe him the remainder of his $1.25 million base salary because he was cut after Week 1. Green Bay would not have owed Jean Francois anything had it released him before the season opener.

--The San Francisco 49ers signed linebacker Elijah Lee from the Minnesota Vikings' practice squad to a two-year deal to add depth at the position.

Rookie linebacker Reuben Foster is expected to miss about a month with a high ankle sprain suffered in Sunday's 23-3 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

To make room on the roster, the 49ers waived offensive lineman John Theus.

--The Indianapolis Colts placed tackle/guard Denzelle Good on the injured reserve list with an undisclosed injury and signed free agent inside linebacker Sean Spence.

The 6-foot-5, 345-pound Good played in 19 career games (15 starts) along the offensive line in three seasons with Indianapolis (2015-17).

--Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith and Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford were named offensive players of the week in their respective conferences for Week 1 to kick off the NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Calais Campbell took the AFC Defensive Player of the Week honor, and Los Angeles Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson earned the NFC defensive award.

The AFC Special Teams Player of the Week went to Oakland Raiders kicker Giorgio Tavecchio, and Detroit Lions kicker Matt Prater was named the NFC Special Teams Player of the Week.

--Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross pledged $1 million to the immediate and long-term rebuilding efforts in areas affected by Hurricane Irma, the team announced.

The Category 4 storm left significant damage throughout Florida earlier this week, resulting in at least 23 reported deaths. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Brock Long said on Tuesday that as many as 65 percent of homes in the Florida Keys sustained major damage as a result of the hurricane.

The Dolphins have partnered with AARP Foundation on a matching funds grant campaign, with all contributions going directly to the community.

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2018 NFL Mock Draft: QBs for Jets, Bills, 49ers, Jags in top 10
September 13, 2017

The 2017 NFL and NCAA seasons just began, but already NFLDraftScout.com is peeking ahead to the spring and to the incoming crop of rookies.

After all, on Tuesday the Pro Football Hall of Fame announced 108 preliminary, modern era nominees for the Class of 2018, so it is time to find potential future NFL stars -- as the beat goes on.

A year ago it was obvious that an exciting new era of running backs was barreling towards the NFL. Fortunately for clubs needing help at quarterback, this year's crop of passers is the big story this year in college football with Southern Cal's Sam Darnold, UCLA's Josh Rosen, Louisville's Lamar Jackson and Wyoming's Josh Allen - all underclassmen - currently projected to earn early first round selections.

Don't like the projected selection order? Don't blame NFLDraftScout.com. The order listed below is based off current Super Bowl odds from a Las Vegas Super Book.

*denotes underclassmen

--1. NEW YORK JETS: Sam Darnold, QB, Southern Cal*: Given the caliber of quarterback play for the Jets in recent years, perhaps the odds-makers are being kind with the club "only" a 1,000-to-one longest of longshots to win the Super Bowl. Darnold, prototypically-built and poised beyond his years, would go a long way to re-establishing this franchise.

--2. BUFFALO BILLS: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville*: Veteran Tyrod Taylor will get his opportunity to convince new Bills head coach Sean McDermott to look towards a different position but if the Bills finish this poorly, change is coming. Jackson, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, offers an upside Taylor (and few others) can match.

--3. CLEVELAND BROWNS: Derwin James, SS, Florida State*: James is a physical specimen, with experience at safety, linebacker, cornerback and even defensive end. With former first round pick Joe Haden sent packing, the Browns could be in the market for another playmaking defender and James is the early favorite to be the first one of them drafted in 2018.

--4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA*: Kyle Shanahan was brought in to spark the 49ers' offense and he will be looking for an opportunity to land a young quarterback. Rosen may just be the most gifted passer in the country, though his brash personality could turn off some decision-makers.

--5. CHICAGO BEARS: Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama*

The bold trade up for Mitchell Trubisky last season only works if the Bears are just as aggressive in filling the club's other shortcomings, including on the defensive side of the ball. Instinctive, physical and versatile, Fitzpatrick could be the answer in the deep patrol Chicago has been missing for years.

--6. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming*: The Blake Bortles experiment has not worked as hoped, leaving Tom Coughlin and the Jaguars likely to roll the dice on a new young passer this spring. Allen is undeniably raw as a passer but he possesses the natural tools to develop in the downfield, play-action offense Doug Marrone is attempting to build in Jacksonville.

--7. MIAMI DOLPHINS: Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama*: Perhaps with Jay Cutler heaving passes, 2015 first round pick DeVante Parker lives up to his billing in his third season. If not, adding a polished receiver with game-breaking speed like Ridley could be Miami's plan to make this offense more dynamic.

--8. LOS ANGELES RAMS: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson*: If the Rams can sign superstar Aaron Donald to a long-term deal, they may be able to focus on a leaky offensive line with this selection. Wilkins has the initial quickness and tenacity to be a perfect complement (or potential replacement) to Donald as a potential consolation prize.

--9. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State*: Only the fact that so many clubs found star running backs in last year's draft could allow a talent like Barkley to slip this far down the board. If Washington is indeed forced to replace Kirk Cousins next year as some believe, adding a big-time talent on offense will be the club's top priority.

--10. DETROIT LIONS: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU*: With all due respect to Leonard Fournette, Guice was LSU's most impressive runner in 2016. With another big season (including improved ball security), he'll earn first round consideration, perhaps for a Detroit club in need of a bell-cow.

--11. INDIANPOLIS COLTS: Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU*: New general manager Chris Ballard did a nice job in his first draft but this defense still lacks speed in the front seven. Key has an explosive initial burst and terrific flexibility off the corner, making him arguably this year's most dangerous edge rusher.

--12. CINCINNATI BENGALS: DaRon Payne, DT, Alabama*: Unless Andy Dalton suddenly picks up his play, the Bengals may have no choice but to look at quarterbacks. Given the team's adherence to the "best player available" strategy under Mike Brown, however, adding a powerful player still just scratching the surface like Payne may be the more likely move.

--13. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Vita Vea, DT, Washington*: Adding a potentially dominator inside to a defensive line already boasting plenty of talent and the Chargers might finally be able to "light up" opposing quarterbacks.

--14. BALTIMORE RAVENS: Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College: With all due respect to veteran Terrell Suggs, the Ravens will be looking at younger options at pass rusher soon. Landry plays with the relentless motor that Suggs and general manager Ozzie Newsome will appreciate.

--15. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M*: Adding young weapons for Carson Wentz should be a top priority and Kirk has the juice to be a difference-maker as a receiver and returner, as well.

--16. CLEVELAND BROWNS (from HOUSTON TEXANS): Courtland Sutton, WR, Southern Methodist*: Unless journeyman Kenny Britt picks things up considerably, the Browns could be forced to look to the draft for the long-term replacement for Josh Gordon and Terrelle Pryor as the club's featured split end. The 6-foot-3, 218 pound Sutton has the size and playmaking ability Hue Jackson prioritizes.

--17. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Connor Williams, OT, Texas: Jameis Winston is a talented passer but he is hardly fleet of foot. As such, the Bucs will likely always be on the lookout for tackles like Williams, an athletic pass blocker with good size (listed at 6-foot-5, 320 pounds) and the toughness to switch to the right side, if needed.

--18. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma*: As long as Mike Zimmer is coaching the team, size and physicality will be a premium for future Vikings. That fits this 6-foot-7, 360-pound Sooner - the son of late standout NFL tackle Orlando "Zeus" Brown - perfectly.

--19. DENVER BRONCOS: Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama*: The Broncos lost an intimidating hitter by letting T.J. Ward go but could find a cheaper, younger alternative on draft day in Harrison, a force near the line of scrimmage and in the deep patrol.

--20. ARIZONA CARDINALS: Nick Fitzgerald, QB, Mississippi State*: The Cardinals talked a lot about finding Carson Palmer's replacement prior to the 2017 draft but ultimately didn't select a quarterback. Fitzgerald is undeniably raw with little over one full season as the Bulldogs' starter. However, he showed grit in replacing Dak Prescott and possesses the raw traits to make a huge jump up draft boards this fall.

--21. CAROLINA PANTHERS: Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State*: On the surface, defensive line may not appear be Carolina's top need but after trading away Kony Ealy, the Panthers need help. While perhaps not as athletic as former teammate Joey Bosa, Hubbard plays with a similar style and intensity.

--22. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*: The Saints have consistently gambled on upside with their first round picks and this selection of the 6-foot-5, 265 pound redshirt sophomore, Ferrell, would be no different. Overshadowed, at times, at Clemson, Ferrell led the club in QB pressures in his first full season of action and may be just scratching the surface of his potential.

--23. BUFFALO BILLS (from KANSAS CITY CHIEFS): James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State: Even if second round pick Zay Jones lives up to expectations, the Bills will want to continue adding playmakers. Washington lacks preferred size but he is a big play waiting to happen.

--24. TENNESSEE TITANS: DaShawn Hand, DE, Alabama: In two drafts, general manager Jon Robinson has transformed the Titans roster into one of the tougher, more physical groups in the league. Pardon the pun, but Hand would fit like a glove in that type of environment.

--25. ATLANTA FALCONS: Billy Price, OG, Ohio State: Protecting Matt Ryan is priority No. 1 in Atlanta. Price, a returning All-American and four-year starter, could be a plug and play option at guard.

--26. NEW YORK GIANTS: Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State: Few teams reload along the defensive line as consistently as Big Blue and Chubb, a pro-ready tough guy who recorded 10.5 sacks and 22 tackles for loss, is too talented to slip any further.

--27. DALLAS COWBOYS: Maurice Hurst, DL, Michigan: Injuries and suspensions have robbed the Cowboys of some of their more talented defensive linemen, leaving coach Rod Marinelli little to work with. The 6-foot-2, 280 pound Hurst may lack ideal size but his quickness, tenacity and versatility suggest NFL success.

--28. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan: Teammate Taylor Moton received most of the attention in 2016 - and for good reason, the 64th overall pick of the draft may very well wind up starting for the Carolina Panthers as a rookie. At 6-5, 333 pounds Okorafor is bigger and has lighter feet than his former teammate, among the reasons he was the Broncos' left tackle while Moton manned the right side.

--29. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame: The Seahawks believe in their young offensive line but it just looked like more of the same in a Week One loss on the road in Green Bay. The Seahawks would value McGlinchey's size (6-foot-7, 312 pounds), toughness and versatility.

--30. OAKLAND RAIDERS: Malik Jackson, LB, Texas: The Raiders boast one of the league's elite pass rush tandems in Khalil Mack and Bruce Irvin but could use steadier play on the inside. Jackson is an athletic and physical presence with a knack for making big plays - qualities that might appeal to Jack Del Rio.

--31. GREEN BAY PACKERS: Mitch Hyatt, OT, Clemson*: Few reload along the offensive line as consistently as Ted Thompson but with injuries to linemen seemingly an annual problem in Green Bay, adding an athletic pass blocker like Hyatt would certainly make sense.

--32. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Lowell Lotulelei, DT, Utah: The younger brother of Carolina's Star is not quite as big at "just" 6-2, 310 pounds but he is also very difficult to move off the line of scrimmage, projecting as a plug and play and longtime starting nose guard in the NFL. That sort of value will appeal to Bill Belichick.

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Thursday's Best Bet
September 13, 2017

Thursday NFL Best Bet

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

HeritageSports.eu Odds: Houston (+6.5) vs. Cincinnati (-6.5); Total set at 38

The first “official” TNF game of the year pits two teams that looked absolutely awful in Week 1 against one another with the Houston Texans in Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. It's definitely not how the league wanted to showcase their first TNF game on the network this year, but their really is nowhere to go but up for both organizations after their showing in Week 1.

Cincinnati was shutout 20-0 by Baltimore a week ago as five turnovers by QB Andy Dalton (4 INT's and 1 fumble) sealed the Bengals fate rather early. Many out there were expecting Dalton to have a great year now that all his weapons are healthy, but his start couldn't have been any worse. Bettors should expect a highly improved Dalton in this game as he looks to redeem himself, but how much better he'll be is still the question.

Houston's defense is still quite good on paper – although they didn't look it at times a week ago – and the Texans have a history of frustrating Dalton and the Bengals. Houston is 5-1 SU in six games during the Dalton era in Cincinnati and the Bengals have only scored 20+ points in one of those games.

On the flip side, Houston didn't look much better in a 29-7 loss to Jacksonville last week as brutal play by their own starting QB (Tom Savage) prompted HC Bill O'Brien to quickly abandon everything he stated all preseason and give rookie QB Deshaun Watson his chance.

Watson definitely brought a spark to the Texans offense and going forward I believe he is the right choice under center for Houston this year. There will likely be some “growing pains” at times with Watson this season, and this game could very well be one of them as it's his first career NFL road game. But this was a guy that was known to make plenty of big plays in college and once he gets a bit of experience under his belt, I'm sure those big plays by Watson will start to show up in the NFL as well.

Regarding this point spread, fading a rookie NFL QB in his first road game is a solid angle to take, but quite frankly I don't know how you can trust Dalton and the Bengals to win by more than a TD here. Cincinnati's history against the Texans is another red flag for laying that chalk, but it's not like there can be a whole lot of trust in grabbing the points with the Texans either.

Which leads me to the total and at 38, it's likely going to be one of the lowest TNF totals we see all year. A combined 7 points by these two teams in Week 1 has to make many like the low side of this total, especially when the Bengals are on a 1-8 O/U run in their last nine games overall. Week 1 saw the majority of NFL games cash 'under' tickets as well, and bettors that got burned by those results may flip in fear of not wanting to get burned again. However, with nowhere to go but 'up' for both offenses, maybe going a little contrarian and expecting a relatively high-scoring game in this one.

For one, Watson getting the nod gives the Texans that offensive spark right from the get-go. He and the rest of that unit are going to want to make a “splash” after their performance last week, and I believe the rookie won't disappoint. Yet, he's still a rookie on the road and mistakes are likely to happen. What that means is Cincy is likely to force a turnover or two and hopefully give their own QB a short field to work with.

Andy Dalton was all about the turnovers in Week 1 and while he should be much better in that regard, that's not to say he won't cough it up a couple of times again. Yet, the spark Houston got and will get with Watson starting, Cincinnati could get as well with WR John Ross expected to make his debut.

Ross is an absolute speedster who broke the 40-yard-dash time at the NFL combine this spring and he's there to take the top off opposing defenses. Even just the threat of his speed should give Dalton more room to work underneath to guys like A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, meaning that run of sub-20 point performances against Houston is likely in jeopardy.

These two teams may have a history of playing 'unders,' but with the Texans on a 4-1 O/U run on TNF and the Bengals being 20-7 O/U after scoring less than 15 points in their last outing, we should see both teams threaten the 20-point barrier on a total lined like this. Add in a 5-2 O/U run for the Bengals after suffering a double-digit defeat at home, and the headlines after this game could very well be how well both offenses bounced back after disastrous Week 1 efforts.

HeritageSports.eu Best Bet: Over (38)