NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 1 cont'd (Thursday, August 31 - Monday, September 4)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Trends for the first college football Saturday

13) In 2013-15, Michigan State was +14/+19/+13 in turnovers, for an amazing total of +46. Spartans went 36-5 in those three seasons.

Last year, MSU was -5 in turnovers and slumped to an abysmal 3-9 record, with 14 senior starters. This year with only 8 returning starters, they’re one of youngest teams in country.

12) Kent State football coach Paul Haynes has taken a medical leave of absence for a few weeks and will not be on the sidelines when the Golden Flashes visit Clemson Saturday.

11) Wyoming is 25-12 vs spread in its last 37 games as a road underdog.

10) Cal Golden Bears covered only twice in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

9) Underdogs are 21-9-2 vs spread in Florida Atlantic’s last 32 games.

8) Penn State coach James Franklin is 18-11 vs spread in his last 29 non-league games.

7) Joe Flacco’s brother Tom is a quarterback at Western Michigan.

6) Arkansas State is 1-8 vs spread in last nine games as a non-league road underdog.

5) Ball State covered nine of its last 11 games when visiting a Big 14 team.

4) South Alabama is 3-10 vs spread in its last 13 games as a road underdog.

3) Boise State is 12-27 vs spread in last 39 games as a home favorite.

2) Georgia Tech is 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as an underdog.

1) UCLA covered only three of its last thirteen home games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, September 2

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Saturday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Alabama vs Florida State
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Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles (+7, 49.5)

Two national championship contenders kick off the season in one of the most anticipated openers of all-time when top-ranked Alabama faces third-ranked Florida State on Saturday at Atlanta. The Crimson Tide have won four national titles under Nick Saban and Florida State has claimed one under Jimbo Fisher and both squads are forecasted to be in the title hunt this season.

Alabama lost 35-31 to Clemson on a last-second touchdown in last season's College Football Playoff title game and Saturday's contest -- the first football game at the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium -- is billed as perhaps the biggest opener in college history. "There is probably more hype because we've had longer to talk about it as a season opener. That has a lot to do with it in my opinion," Fisher told reporters. "But it's the first time two top-three teams have played to open up a season, so I understand where that comes from." Meanwhile, Saban is eager to put last season behind him and focus on the 2017 campaign. "The identity of this team is going to be created by what this team does, not what happened last year, not what happened on the last play of the game," Saban told reporters. "None of that is going to matter to how this team develops their identity and their ability to conquer adversity."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The losing team from the 2017 FBS Championship game opened as 7.5-point, but bettors brought that number down almost immediately to 6.5 and the line has come back up a bit to an even 7. The total hit the betting board at 49 and is up a half-point to 49.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: ‘These are two of the best teams in the nation, so it is a shame that one will have a loss after the first week. I currently have both squads in my Top 3 rankings. The pointspread has been sitting steady on the key number (-7) with very little movement so far. Florida State should improve on defense with 9 returning starters after allowing 25.0 points per game last season. Alabama is younger with only 5 returning defensive starters, but they will likely just reload and still be dominant after allowing only 13.0 points per game last season when they also returned five starters. Both defenses will be tested on Saturday night against offenses that averaged 35.1 ppg (FSU) and 38.8 ppg (Bama) last season.’ - Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: 'The FSU-Bama matchup is easily our biggest handle of Week 1 college football. It’s drawing the interest of seemingly every square bettor, and some of the sharp contingent. The pros are siding with Florida State for now, but they really like the under. We have 75 percent of the tickets on the over, but 65 percent of the money on the under. The public likes the Tide to cover.' - Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu

INJURY REPORT:

Alabama - RB Bo Scarbrough (Probable, Leg), WR Robert Foster (Probable, Back), RB Najee Harris (Probable, Hamstring), RB Joshua Jacobs (Questionable, Hamstring), WR Cam Sims (Questionable, Shoulder), DL Raekwon Davis (Out Indefinitely, Leg), LB Keith Holcombe (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder)

Florida State - LB Matthew Thomas (Probable, Academics), DB Trey Marshall (Probable, Suspension), OL Brady Scott (Out Indefinitely, Foot), WR Da’Vante Phillips (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), WR George Campbell (Out Indefinitely, abdominal).

ABOUT ALABAMA (2016: 14-1 SU, 10-5 ATS, 7-8 O/U): Sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts stood out last season as an all-around force as he passed for 2,780 yards and 23 touchdowns and added 954 yards and 13 scores on the ground. Senior wideout Calvin Ridley (72 catches in 2016) is etching his name in the Crimson Tide record books and ranks fourth in school history with 161 receptions. The defense lost a lot of star power, but preseason first-team All-American Minkah Fitzpatrick - a junior strong safety - is back after intercepting six passes last season, while sophomore defensive end Raekwon Davis is doubtful after being shot in his right leg last Sunday.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (2016: 10-3, 8-4 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Sophomore quarterback Deondre Francois will be looking to take a step forward after a stellar 2016 in which he passed for 3,350 yards and 20 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. The big issue is replacing all-everything back Dalvin Cook and junior Jacques Patrick (350 rushing yards last season) will get the first crack. Sophomore free safety Derwin James is healthy after playing just two games last season due to a knee injury, but senior linebacker Matthew Thomas (77 tackles) is in jeopardy of missing the game after not practicing the past three weeks.

TRENDS (Dating back to last season):

* Alabama is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
* Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 4-0-1 in Alabama's last five games vs. ACC opponents.
* Over is 6-0 in Florida State's last six neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: The chalk Crimson Tide are getting 54 percent of the action from Covers users and the Over is getting 59 percent of the totals wagers.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Sunday, September 3

West Virginia @ Virginia Tech

Game 209-210
September 3, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
West Virginia
94.093
Virginia Tech
101.543
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 7 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 4
52
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(-4); Under

Texas A&M @ UCLA

Game 211-212
September 3, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas A&M
90.835
UCLA
95.953
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCLA
by 5
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCLA
by 3
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UCLA
(-3); Over


Monday, September 4

Tennessee @ Georgia Tech

Game 213-214
September 4, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
95.646
Georgia Tech
95.107
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Tech
Even
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia Tech
(+3); Under




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Sunday/Monday’s games
Virginia Tech has a new QB; their offensive line has 72 returning starts. Since 2011, Hokies are just 19-34-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’10, they’re 13-20-1 in non-ACC games. Tech has only 5 starters back on offense. West Virginia lost 8 starters on defense, 6 on offense; since ’12, they’re 7-12 vs spread outside the Big X. WVU is 7-9 vs spread in last 16 games when getting points. Mountaineers’ OL has only 46 returning starts. ACC-Big X don’t meet often; last five years, ACC teams are 6-5 vs spread when facing a Big X squad.

Pac-12-SEC games don’t happen much; since 2011, SEC teams are 7-3 vs spread when they play a Pac-12 opponent. Under Sumlin, Texas A&M is 12-13 vs spread out of conference; since 2013, they’re 3-7 vs spread when getting points. Aggies lost 6 starters on offense; they’ve got a new QB, their OL has only 48 returning starts. UCLA has 9 starters back on offense; their OL has 85 returning starts. Since 2014, Bruins are 5-10 vs spread as a favorite; they’re 1-8-1 vs spread in last 10 non-conference games.

Prepping for the option can be tough, but Tennessee has had more time, seeing as this is their opener. Vols’ offensive line has 111 returning starts, #2 experienced OL in country. Tennessee is 13-16 vs spread when favored under Jones- they’ve got 7 starters back on both sides of ball. Georgia Tech has 8 starters back on both sides, but has a new QB; Jackets are 9-5 vs spread in last 14 non-league games, 9-11 in last 20 games when getting points. Last two years, ACC teams are 14-9 vs spread when facing SEC opponents.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Sunday, September 3

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Sunday's NCAAF Game of the Day: West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
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West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-4, 51.5)

No. 20 West Virginia and 22nd-ranked Virginia Tech each will break in a talented new quarterback when they renew their rivalry by meeting for the first time in 12 years in the season opener on Sunday at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Will Grier, who went 6-0 at Florida in 2015 before testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs and being suspended, gets the call for West Virginia and redshirt freshman Josh Jackson starts for the Hokies.

Mountaineers coach Dana Holgorsen told ESPN.com that his job will be to keep the eager Grier calm and relaxed while he lets the game come to him, saying "He’s not going to be able to make up for a year and a half in one game.” Grier won’t have to do it all himself as West Virginia boasts a deep group of running backs that is led by Justin Crawford, who is the leading rusher among those returning in the Big 12 (1,184 yards). Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente told reporters Jackson has been incredibly consistent and has a great demeanor as he starts his first game in place of Jerod Evans, who left early for the NFL. “I’m very comfortable with the offense,” Jackson, a dual-threat signal-caller from Ann Arbor, Mich. told reporters. “I don’t think we’re going to dial anything back.”

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Hokies as 4-point favorites and that line quickly grew as high as 5, before fading back to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 55.5 and has been bet down 4.5-points to an even 51.

WEATHER REPORT: Weather conditions should be perfect for football with sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-70’s at kickoff.

INJURY REPORT:

West Virginia - QB Will Grier (Probable, Suspension), S Dravon Askew-Henry (Probable, Knee), WR Marcus Simms (Eligibility, Suspension), LS David Long Jr. (Early October, Knee)

Virginia Tech - CB Brandon Facyson (Probable, Wrist), WR Caleb Farley (Out For Season, Knee)

WEST VIRGINIA (2016: 10-3 SU, 5-8 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Holgorsen told reporters he likes where his team is, and the seventh-year coach must be especially pleased with the Mountaineers’ depth at running back as sophomores Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway also will play big roles. Grier, who averaged 277 yards through the air in beating Tennessee and Ole Miss back-to-back two years ago, has a strong top target in senior receiver Ka’Raun White (48 catches, 583 yards last year). Senior linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton (80 tackles in 2016) leads the defense along with defensive backs Dravon Askew-Henry and senior Kyzir White.

VIRGINIA TECH (2016: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U): The Hokies hope to give Jackson time to develop with strong work from a defense that is led by linebackers Andrew Motuapuaka (senior) and Tremaine Edmunds (junior), who combined for 220 tackles last year, and a solid secondary paced by junior Adonis Alexander. Jackson’s most-experienced target is senior Cam Phillips, who has recorded 165 receptions for 2,063 yards and 10 touchdowns in his career, and senior guard Wyatt Teller anchors the line. Travon McMillian has accumulated 1,713 rushing yards over the last two years and could be pushed by fellow junior Steven Peoples and sophomore Deshawn McClease.

TRENDS (Dating back to last season):

* Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.

* Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Over is 4-1 in Mountaineers last 5 neutral site games.

* Over is 5-1-1 in Hokies last 7 neutral site games.

* Over is 13-3 in Hokies last 16 non-conference games.

* Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Virginia Tech.

CONSENSUS: The underdog Mountaineers are getting 61 percent of the money line action from users and the Over is picking up 69 percent of the totals wagers.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, September 4

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Monday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Tennessee vs Georgia Tech
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Tennessee Volunteers vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3.5, 55.5)

Tennessee and Georgia Tech will meet in brand-new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for Monday’s season opener, but who will line up at quarterback for both teams remains unknown - at least publicly. Tennessee coach Butch Jones and Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson have not announced who will start under center, as the No. 24 Volunteers and Georgia Tech begin their campaigns looking to replace long-time starting quarterbacks.

The Volunteers have junior Quinten Dormady, a backup the last two years, and redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano battling to replace Joshua Dobbs. “We have a pretty good idea who the quarterback will be for us, and we have a pretty good idea who the quarterback will be for them as well,” Jones told reporters this week. The Yellow Jackets most likely will go with junior Matthew Jordan, who played at times while former starter Justin Thomas was injured last season, but could go with junior TaQuon Marshall or a pair of redshirt freshmen. “We may play all four in the first game,” Johnson told reporters. “Who knows?”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Tenessee opened as 6-point favorites but Georgia Tech money has pushed that number down to 3.5. The total hit the betting boards at 61 and has dropped down to 55.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Tennessee - WR J. Smith (Probable, Shoulder), DB S. Wiggins (Questionable, Hip), DL S. Tuttle (Questionable, Knee), LB D. Kirkland Jr. (Out For Season, Knee), OL D. Richmond (Elig Sept 9, Suspension), WR J. Jones (Out For Season, Knee), OL C. Hall (Out For Season, Knee).

Georgia Tech - RB C. Lynch (Questionable, Undisclosed), LB D. Curry (Out, Lower Body), OL A. Marshall (Out, Lower Body).

WEATHER REPORT: Dome. Mercedes-Benz Stadium will, eventually be a retractable roofed stadium but the roof opening mechanism will not be ready until later in the year.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (2016: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS, 9-4 O/U): The Volunteers look to replace most of their offensive firepower from last season, but return running back John Kelly (630 yards rushing in 2016) and receiver Jauan Jennings (seven receiving touchdowns). Dormady played in four games last season, completing 11-of-17 passes for 148 yards. Defensively, Tennessee brings back its top four linebackers from a season ago and an experienced secondary.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (2016: 9-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS, 6-5-1 O/U): The Yellow Jackets will deploy the triple-option offense, but lost leading rusher Dedrick Mills after he was dismissed from the program in August for violating team rules. Jordan directed an upset at Virginia Tech last season and rushed for six touchdowns in nine games, attempting just nine passes on the season, but does have experienced running backs in Clinton Lynch (905 all-purpose yards) and J.J Green. Georgia Tech brings back five defensive backs who combined for eight interceptions a season ago.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Yellow Jackets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. SEC.
* Over is 8-0 in Volunteers last 8 neutral site games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Yellow Jackets last 5 games in September.

CONSENSUS: The Volunteers are picking up 57 percent of the action from users and the Over is picking up 61 percent of the totals wagers.


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[Udog]

NCAAF Opening Line Report: Huge rematch from last season highlights Week 2

“Everyone knows exactly what happened in this game last year, and I don’t know if anyone is expecting anything different.”

No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5)

Ohio State (1-0 SU and ATS), coming off a season in which it reached the College Football Playoff semifinals, was sluggish out of the gate in Week 1 at Indiana, trailing 21-20 late in the third quarter. However, the Buckeyes didn’t allow a score the rest of the way and scored the final 29 points in a 49-21 victory as a 20-point favorite Thursday.

Oklahoma (1-0 SU and ATS) didn’t have nearly that kind of trouble with nonconference foe Texas-El Paso, rumbling 56-7 Saturday as a massive 43-point home favorite. But playing in The Horseshoe won’t be nearly as comfortable, as the Sooners try to avenge a 45-24 loss to Ohio State as a 2-point home underdog in Week 3 last year.

“Everyone knows exactly what happened in this game last year, and I don’t know if anyone is expecting anything different,” Cooley said. “The Buckeyes found their offensive rhythm in the second half of their opener, and it’s easy to say the Indiana defense is comparable, if not better, than Oklahoma’s. This number will probably head north quickly.”

Cooley was spot-on, as less than an hour after Bookmaker.eu’s opening line posted Sunday evening, the Buckeyes were bet up to -7.5.

No. 13 Auburn Tigers at No. 5 Clemson Tigers (-6)

Defending national champion Clemson (1-0 SU and ATS) no longer has Deshaun Watson at quarterback, but it hardly mattered in its Week 1 tuneup game for this ACC-SEC clash. Kelly Bryant threw for 236 yards and a touchdown, and ran for another 77 yards and a score as Clemson crushed Kent State 56-3 laying 38 points at home Saturday.

Auburn (1-0 SU, 0-0-1 ATS) likewise had no problem with Georgia Southern in a 41-7 Saturday stomp, though it settled for a push as a 34-point home fave. Auburn and Clemson have met four times in the last seven seasons, with Clemson taking the last three SU, including a 19-13 road win giving 7.5 points last year.

“Is this the year Auburn snaps the streak? Tough to say, but one thing that seems to be certain is that we won’t see a shootout,” Cooley said. “This has been a tightly contested game over the last five years or so, and these rivalries always seem to play out like that. Pro bettors might find some value with Auburn here.”

No. 15 Georgia Bulldogs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (no line)

Georgia opened the season with a victory, but it came at a cost. Starting quarterback Jacob Eason suffered a sprained knee in the first quarter against Appalachian State on Saturday. The Bulldogs (1-0 SU and ATS) went on to win 31-10 as a 12.5-point home chalk, but Cooley held off on posting a line for Georgia-Notre Dame until it’s clear whether Eason or freshman Jake Fromm will be the starter.

Notre Dame (1-0 SU and ATS) is coming off a 49-16 rout of Temple as a 19-point favorite. The Irish are looking to put behind them a dismal 4-8 SU and ATS season.

“We’re anticipating Eason will be out for this one, but we’ll wait to hang a line just to be sure,” Cooley said. “If he’s out, the freshman will have his hands full at South Bend. That injury obviously will be built into the line, as will the public’s propensity to back Notre Dame.”

No. 14 Stanford Cardinal at No. 4 Southern California Trojans (-5.5)

Star QB Sam Darnold and Southern Cal (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) got all they could handle from Western Michigan until well into the fourth quarter Saturday. The Trojans needed two touchdowns in the span of 36 seconds – the second one on an interception return with 3:13 remaining – to pull away for a 49-31 victory as a hefty 28-point home favorite.

Stanford (1-0 SU and ATS) comes in off a week of rest, after roasting Rice 62-7 laying 29.5 points on Aug. 26. The Cardinal probably needed the break, as it was the ultimate neutral-site game, played in Sydney, Australia.

“You get the feeling that this ballyhooed USC squad is due for an early upset,” Cooley said. “USC didn’t look great against the run, and the power-run game is what the Cardinals hang their hat on. Stanford has owned this rivalry of late, and this could be another notch in the series win column.”

The Cardinal won and cashed the last three meetings with the Trojans, including a 27-10 home victory last year as a 7.5-point fave. That said, shortly after Bookmaker.eu installed USC a 5.5-point chalk Sunday night, the Trojans were bet up to 6.5.