The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 13
November 21, 2017

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

KENT STATE at AKRON...Local rivals. Home team has covered last four meetings. Bowden 4-1 vs. line at Infocision this season. Woeful Kent on 3-10 spread skid.
Akron, based on team and series home trends.

BOWLING GREEN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...BG just 2-9 vs. spread in 2017, Jinks 6-17 vs. line since LY. EMU not as good vs. line at home as on road but still on 17-5 spread uptick since early LY.
EMU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at BALL STATE...Ball no covers last seven TY, now 0-8-1 last nine on board.
Miami-Ohio, based on Ball negatives.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Matchup Skinny Edge

OLE MISS at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Egg Bowl! Dan Mullen on 8-4 spread uptick in reg.-season play and has covered last three as SEC host.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 24

Matchup Skinny Edge

BAYLOR at TCU...Rhule 4-7 vs. line TY, Bears on 5-12 spread skid since mid 2016. Frogs have covered all five in series since joining Big 12 in 2012.
TCU, based on team and series trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO....Toledo has won and covered five of last six this season, all wins by DD margins. WMU however has covered last three meetings.
Slight to Toledo, based on recent trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at VIRGINIA... No UVa SU wins in series since 2003. Though home team has covered last four meetings. Fuente 2-5 as visiting chalk with Hokies.
Slight to Virginia Tech based on series trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU has covered last 4 and 5 of last 6 TY. NIU just 2-5 vs. line last seven TY. Chips have covered last three in series.
CMU, based on recent and series trends.

OHIO at BUFFALO...Even after Akron loss, Solich 8-3 vs. spread TY, and 9-4 last 13 vs. points in MAC. Solich 6-2 vs. spread last 8 as MAC visitor. Bulls 1-3 vs. spread last four overall.
Slight to Ohio, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at ARKANSAS...Mizzou covers last seven TY, while Bielema on 3-9-1 spread skid since late LY.
Mizzou, based on recent trends.

NEW MEXICO at SAN DIEGO STATE...UNM has covered five of last six meetings, but Davie no covers last three on road TY, bad beatings in all.
Slight to SD State, based on recent trends.

NAVY at HOUSTON... Mids 6-1 vs. line last seven as visitor. Mids pulled big upset on Cougs LY and are 7-1 last seven as dog. UH 6-12-1 last 19 on board (5-5 TY).
Navy, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLA. at PITT...Canes just 5-5 vs. line TY. Though have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Pitt. Panthers 4-12 vs. line at home for Narduzzi since 2015.
Miami, based on Pitt home negatives.

IOWA at NEBRASKA...Ferentz has won and covered last two years vs. Riley and is 4-1 vs. points last five vs. Huskers. Though Hawkeyes 0-3-1 vs. line away TY, they were 16-4 vs. spread as visitor from 2013-16. Riley 0-6 vs. line at Lincoln TY!
Iowa, based on team and recent series trends.

TEXAS STATE at TROY...TSU on 6-9 spread skid for Withers, though Troy 0-5 vs. spread as host TY. Trojans were 5-5 as home chalk the previous two seasons.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at UCF...USF no covers last four TY, Charlie Strong teams now on 4-9 spread skid since late LY at Texas and Bulls.
UCF, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FIU...WKU just 3-7-1 vs. spread post-Jeff Brohm this season.
Slight to FIU, based on team trends.

TEXAS TECH at TEXAS...Texas 7-3-1 vs. line this season. Horns 6-1 vs. line last 7 meetings.
Slight to Texas Tech, based on team trends.

CAL at UCLA...UCLA 5-0 SU at Rose Bowl, and home team is 9-3 vs. spread in last 12 Bruins games dating to late LY. Home team has covered last seven in series.
UCLA, based on team and series home trends.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Matchup Skinny Edge

UCONN at CINCINNATI...Fickell 1-4 vs. line at Nippert TY if you count UCF loss, and Bearcats 2-11 vs. spread at Nippert (if counting UCF loss) since late 2015.
UConn, based on Cincy home negatives.

BOSTON COLLEGE at SYRACUSE...BC on 7-0-1 spread surge. Cuse 3-8 vs. spread last 11 at Carrier Dome.
Boston College, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at RUTGERS...Gers 8-3 vs. number this term. Dantonio only 2-8 vs. points last ten away from East Lansing. Home team has won and covered last three in series.
Rutgers, based on recent and series home trends.

INDIANA at PURDUE...Old Oaken Bucket! Purdue has covered six of last nine bucket battles. Brohm 7-4 vs. line TY, and 27-15-1 since late 2014 at WKU & Boilermakers. Hoosiers just 2-5-1 last eight vs. spread TY.
Purdue, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN...Buckeyes have won SU last five and 12-1 last 13 SU vs. Wolverines. Though Mich. has covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Urban 8-4 vs. line last 12 as visitor. Harbaugh 1-5 vs. points last six at home.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

NORTH CAROLINA at NC STATE...Road team has won and covered last four meetings. Heels have covered last 3 TY.
North Carolina, based on series trends.

DUKE at WAKE FOREST... Duke 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY. Deacs on 22-7 spread surge since mid 2015.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.

APP STATE at GEORGIA STATE...App only 3-7 vs. line TY, on 5-10 spread skid since late 2016. Panthers on 17-10-1 spread uptick since mid 2015. Panthers 14-7-1 as dog since 2015.
Georgia State, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT at TENNESSEE...Vandy 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 vs. line last eight TY, but Dores have covered 4 of last 5 in series.
Slight to Vanderbilt, based on series trends.

IOWA STATE at KANSAS STATE... ISU 76-2-2 vs. line TY, on 14-5-2 spread uptick since early LY. Cyclones have covered last 3 in series. KSU no covers last six, and 1-6 vs. spread last 7, as Big 12 host.
Iowa State, based on team and series trends.

LOUISVILLE at KENTUCKY...Cards 2-5 vs. points last seven away from home. But UK no covers last seven vs. non-SEC.
Slight to Louisville, based on team trends.

GEORGIA vs. GEORGIA TECH...Major visitor series. Especially for UGa, which has won last 10 and covered 9 in a row at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field. Road teams are 16-2-1 vs. spread last 19 in series.
Georgia, based on series trends.

PENN STATE at MARYLAND...James Franklin no covers last three TY after 16-2 spread run prior. Terps just 7-13 last 20 vs. line.
Penn State, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at ILLINOIS...Cats covers in last six and eight of last nine this season. Lovie 4-10 last 14 vs. line.
Northwestern, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at RICE...Owls just 4-7 vs. line TY but have covered 3 of last 5. UNT 8-4 vs. line last 12 on board since late 2016.
North Texas, based on team trends.

FAU at CHARLOTTE...Lane Kiffin 6-1 vs. line last seven, 8-2 vs. spread last ten TY.
FAU, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at AIR FORCE...Falcs no covers last four at home TY and just 1-5 last five vs. spread this season. Utags have won and covered last three on road TY.
Utah State, based on recent trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at MARSHALL...Herd has covered last six meetings. Marshall 8-3 vs. line TY.
Marshall, based on series trends.

UNLV at NEVADA...Fremont Cannon! Road team has won and covered last four in series, though Pack 10-2 SU last 12 meetings. Rebs 5-0 vs. line away TY.
Slight to Nevada, based on extended series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at WASHINGTON...Apple Cup! Huskies have won and covered big the last three seasons and have won last four SU vs. Cougs. But Leach 16-6 last 22 as road dog and has covered 7 of last 9 TY. Leach 16-5 last 21 as dog.
Slight to Washington State, based on team trends.

WYOMING at SAN JOSE STATE...Bohl 7-1 vs. line alst eight TY. SJSU on 2-7-1 spread skid.
Wyoming, based on team trends.

COLORADO at UTAH... Buffs have covered 5 of last 6 meetings in this season-ender, including last three at SLC. Utes 5-6 last 11 vs. spread as Pac-12 host. Buffs 8-4 last 12 as visiting dog.
Colorado, based on series trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at ULM... Six big wins and covers in a row for ASU (seven in a row SU) vs. ULM. Red Wolves on 12-6 spread uptick since mid 2016.
Arkansas State, based on team and series trends.

ODU at MTSU... Monarchs just 3-6 last nine as road dog. MTSU 3-1 vs. line last four at home TY.
Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA...Paul Bunyan Axe! UW 9-1 vs. spread last ten as visitor. Gophers haven’t beaten Wiscy since 2003!
Wisconsin, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME at STANFORD...Tree only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 on Farm. If dog, note Brian Kelly 9-5 last 14 in role, but ND has lost SU last four in Palo Alto.
Slight to Stanford, based on home series marks.

CLEMSON at SOUTH CAROLINA...Home team has covered last four in series. Muschamp on 5-0-1 spread run TY and has covered last seven as dog.
South Carolina, based on team and series home trends.

TEXAS A&M at LSU...Sumlin 0-5 SU and vs. line against LSU since A&M entered SEC in 2012. Orgeron 5-0-1 vs. spread last six TY and 11-6-1 vs. spread since taking over Tigers mid 2016.
LSU, based on series and team trends.

BOISE STATE at FRESNO STATE...Boise 5-0 vs. line away TY, 11-2 last 13 vs. spread as visitor.
Boise State, based on team trends.

TULANE at SMU...SMU just 1-4-1 last six vs line TY after covering first five. Fritz on 8-4 spread uptick since late 2016. Fritz teams 22-14 vs. line since 2015 including his last season at Georgia Southern.
Tulane, based on team trends.

KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE... Gundy 4-2 laying DD in 2017, and home team 5-0-1 vs. line last six in series.
Oklahoma State, based on team and series trends.

ARIZONA at ARIZONA STATE...Territorial Cup! Home team has won and covered last four meetings. ASU 6-2-1 vs. spread last nine TY, UA 2-9 as road dog since 2015.
ASU, based on team and series trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA... Holgorsen has lost all five SU vs. Sooners since entering Big 12 and failed to cover last three. Mountaineers just 5-11-1 last 17 vs. line away from Morgantown (2-2-1 TY). Lincoln Riley 4-1 vs. spread at Norman in OU debut.
Oklahoma, based on team and series trends.

OREGON STATE at OREGON...Civil War! OSU has covered 3 of last 4 vs. Ducks and won LY at Corvallis. UO 2-4 vs. line last six TY.
Oregon State, based on recent trends.

IDAHO at NEW MEXICO STATE... Home team has covered last four in series. Though Vandals have covered 7 straight and 13 of 14 as Sun Belt visitor! Ags 6-3-1 vs. line TY and 10-5-1 vs. spread since mid 2016.
Idaho, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at ULL...Eagles 3-6-1 vs. line TY, 6-15-1 vs. points since 2016 post-Willie Fritz.
Slight to ULL, based on recent trends.

TEMPLE at TULSA...Owls covers 5of last 7 this season. Hurricane 7-10 vs. line at home since Montgomery arrived in 2015.
Slight to Temple, based on recent trends.

UTSA at LA TECH... UTSA had covered four straight in series prior to LY. Skip just 1-5 vs. spread as host TY.
Slight to UTSA, based on extended series trends.

EAST CAROLINA at MEMPHIS...ECU 3-8 vs. line TY, 4-16-1 last 20 on board. Memphis covers last four TY.
Memphis, based on ECU woes.

UTEP at UAB...UAB has covered 7 of last 8 TY. Miners 2-9 vs. spread in forgettable 2017, 6-15-1 last 21 on board.
UAB, based on recent trends.

ALABAMA at AUBURN...Iron Bowl! Saban has won and covered last three vs. Malzahn since the “Kick Six” and Chris Davis in 2013. Malzahn just 5-9 last 14 as dog and 2-5 vs. spread last seven at Jordan-Hare. Saban has failed to cover last two on SEC road but was 9-1 previous 10 in role.
span style="font-weight:bold; color: #b20000">Alabama, based on series and team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at FLORIDA... Noles a stunning 1-9 vs. line this season, Gators not much better at 2-6-2. Jimbo has won last four in series and covered last 2, and 3 of those 4.
FSU, based on recent series trends.

BYU at HAWAII...Rolovich on 0-7-1 spread skid TY, 3-9 vs. line at Aloha since LY, and UH 3-15 vs. points last 18 at Honolulu.
BYU, based on Hawaii negatives.

[StarDust Bum]

Akron grabs first MAC East title since '05
November 21, 2017

AKRON, Ohio (AP) Ulysees Gilbert returned a fumble 40 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the first half and Akron cruised to a 24-14 victory over Kent State on Tuesday night to claim its first Mid-American Conference East Division title since 2005.

Kato Nelson completed just 6 of 20 passes for 69 yards for the Zips (7-5, 6-2), but he found Kobe Booker open for a 25-yard scoring strike in the first quarter. After Nick Gasser nailed a 45-yard field goal, Akron led 10-0.

The Golden Flashes (2-10, 1-7) pulled within three points on Justin Rankin's 8-yard TD run in the second quarter, but Akron scored two touchdowns in the last 18 seconds to close out the half. Manny Morgan's 1-yard TD plunge pushed the lead to 17-7 and then Jamal Davis II forced a fumble by Kesean Gamble and Gilbert scooped and scored.

Rankin finished with 73 yards rushing on 21 carries and also added a 1-yard TD pass on a trick play in the final quarter to cap the scoring for Kent State. Dustin Crum added 77 yards on 12 rushes.

Akron will have to wait until Friday to see if it plays Northern Illinois or Toledo for the MAC championship.

*****************

E. Michigan edges Bowling Green, 34-31
November 21, 2017

YPSILANTI, Mich. (AP) Ian Eriksen ran for three touchdowns and Eastern Michigan held on to beat Bowling Green 34-31 on Tuesday night.

Eriksen finished with 104 yards rushing on 24 carries and Shaq Vann ran 16 times for 117 yards for Eastern Michigan (5-7, 3-5 Mid-American Conference).

Jarret Doege was 21-of-34 passing for 256 yards with two touchdowns to lead Bowling Green (2-10, 2-6). Josh Cleveland ran for 150 yards and a 2-yard score.

Doege's pair of TD passes in the third quarter gave the Falcons a 31-27 lead. Eriksen's third touchdown, a 7-yarder, ended the quarter.

Bowling Green's Jake Suder missed a 29-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter. With about five minutes left, Cleveland was stopped for a 3-yard loss on a fourth-and-1. The Eagles took possession and then ran out the clock.

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Miami (OH) routs Ball State, 28-7
November 21, 2017

MUNCIE, Ind. (AP) Gus Ragland threw three touchdown passes and Miami (Ohio) controlled Ball State from the outset to hand the Cardinals their ninth straight loss in a 28-7 contest that served as the season finale for both teams Tuesday night.

Ragland threw first-quarter touchdown passes of 11 and 7 yards to Sam Martin and Jared Murphy. He added a 14-yard scoring toss to James Gardner in the second. With 76 seconds left before halftime, Joshua Allen intercepted Jack Milas and returned it 49 yards for a score that made it 28-0 for Miami (5-7, 4-4 Mid-American Conference).

Caleb Huntley led Ball State (2-10, 0-8) with 159 yards rushing on 25 carries.

The game marked the inaugural presentation of the Red Bird Rivalry trophy for the two schools which are separated by 70 miles. MAC expansion in the late '90s prevented them from playing every year, and before Tuesday, they'd only played eight times since 2000. The MAC granted the two `rivalry status' so they can play every year.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/21/20171-5-016.67%-22.50
11/18/2017 25-30-0 45.45% -40.00
11/17/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
11/16/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/15/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/14/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -1150
11/11/2017 28-26-4 51.85% -300
11/09/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
11/08/2017 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
11/07/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/04/2017 26-28-2 48.15% -24.00
11/03/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals.............100 - 119.........45.62%.....-144.50

Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTAL

11/21/2017......................0 - 3............-16.50.................1- 2..................-6.00
11/18/2017.....................17 - 18.........-14.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50
11/17/2017......................2 - 0...........+10.00.................1 -1...................-0.50
11/16/2017......................1 - 1...........-0.50....................0 - 2.................-11.00
11/15/2017......................1 - 0...........+5.00...................1 - 1.................-0.50
11/14/2017......................0 - 2...........-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.50
11/11/2017....................6 - 7 - 1.........-8.50...................4 - 0..................+20.00
11/09/2017......................1 - 2............-6.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00
11/08/2017......................0 - 1............-5.50...................0 - 3..................-16.50
11/07/2017......................0 - 2............-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.50
11/04/2017....................11 - 10..........+0.00...................5 - 2.................+14.00
11/03/2017......................2 - 1............+4.50..................0 - 2..................-11.00
11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00

Totals.........................44 - 47 - 1..........-38.50..................18 - 19..............-14.00

[StarDust Bum]

Ole Miss at Miss State
November 21, 2017

The Egg Bowl will be playing on Thanksgiving night for the first time since 2013 as the nation’s 10th longest uninterrupted rivalry will open the final weekend of the SEC regular season. The stakes are lower than a few seasons ago but this year’s game will carry great importance to the players and coaches.

Here is a look at Thursday Night Football as Mississippi and Mississippi State face off.

Matchup: Mississippi Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs
Venue: At Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 23, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: Mississippi State -16, Over/Under 62½
Last Meeting: 2016, Mississippi State (+10) 55, at Mississippi 20

After a post-game brawl in 1926 Ole Miss and Mississippi A&M (now Mississippi State) created a Golden Egg trophy for the victor although the rivalry game wasn’t referred to colloquially as the ‘Egg Bowl’ until 1979. While both programs have had some ups and downs the 2014 meeting was one of the high points of the rivalry with two highly ranked teams with #19 Ole Miss upsetting then #4 Mississippi State 31-17. This year’s game doesn’t carry the same weight but the intensity on the field will remain strong and there are plenty of storylines on the sidelines as well.

Last February Ole Miss announced a self-imposed one-year postseason ban due to allegations of violations. As more details emerged, head coach Huge Freeze resigned in July, leaving after five years with a 39-25 record though hitting a low point with a 5-7 record last season. Matt Luke has been on the staff since 2012 and was named the interim head coach for this season though he is not expected to be a serious candidate moving forward. The Rebels are a bit handcuffed in the upcoming hiring season as the NCAA hasn’t made a final ruling on the case and there could be further sanctions against the school.

Mississippi State was expected to sit at the bottom of the SEC West this season but Dan Mullen has the Bulldogs at 4-3 in league play and 8-3 overall, certainly looking like the 4th or 5th team in the SEC pecking order in the bowl season as an attractive bowl bid should be coming to the program. Despite being on the hot seat himself only a few years ago Mullen has emerged as hot property after sustained success in Starkville, now 69-45 in nine seasons with his quarterback development reputation highly regarded. That has meant his name has been thrown around as a possible candidate for several of the high profile vacancies around the country with his decision capable of having a domino impact at several programs.

The three losses for Mississippi State this season have come against the three SEC teams still in the running for a SEC championship and a College Football Playoff spot, falling early in the season in lopsided results at Georgia and at Auburn. Mississippi State rallied to win the next four games and two weeks ago gave #1 Alabama a great test with a 31-24 loss in Starkville, a game the Bulldogs led into the 4th quarter and lost in the final minute. That has been the only home loss for Mississippi State this season with a notable 37-7 home win over LSU in September on the resume.

Nick Fitzgerald is 11th in the SEC in quarterback rating but that doesn’t do justice to the season he has had. While not a prolific passer he has thrown for 15 touchdowns and should eclipse 2,000 passing yards by season’s end and his completion rate has gone up slightly compared with last season. Fitzgerald’s main value is his size and mobility at 6’5” and rushing for 968 net yards at this point in the season on 6.1 yards per carry. He has accounted for 29 touchdowns this season and can carry his team at times with junior running back Aeris Williams also likely to top 1,000 yards rushing this season as the other major piece of the offense.

On defense junior Montez Sweat has nine sacks to match the lead in the SEC and Mississippi State is ninth nationally in total defense surrendering only 297 yards per game. The Bulldogs are 20th in the nation in scoring defense allowing 19.5 points per game and five times this season the Bulldogs have allowed 14 or fewer points.

The opportunity for Mississippi State in this matchup should come on the ground as Ole Miss rates 118th nationally allowing 5.4 yards per rush. The Rebels have allowed 35.2 points per game on the season but the offense has been able to win several higher scoring shootouts.

The season started poorly for Ole Miss with losses in the first three major conference tests of the season including falling 66-3 at Alabama and 44-23 at Auburn. Sophomore quarterback Shea Patterson was on pace to be one of the most productive passing quarterbacks in the nation but he was injured in the October loss to LSU. While a lighter stretch of the schedule has played a role, junior Jordan Ta’amu has taken over the position with even stronger numbers, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes on 9.5 yards per attempt and he delivered a signature performance in the narrow win at Kentucky in early November.

Senior Jordan Wilkins has gained 6.1 yards per carry out of the backfield and the Rebels have leaned on him more in recent weeks with 271 yards the past two games as he could have a shot to eclipse 1,000 yards on the season this week going against a fairly stingy MSU run defense. Sophomore A.J. Brown has been the top receiver with 1,085 yards on 69 catches including 10 touchdowns despite missing a game early in the season.

While the Rebels won’t make a bowl game they can reach 6-6 with a win in the finale for a season of improvement after going 5-7 last season after losing in the Egg Bowl last season in what was a bowl elimination game. The Rebels have only played one road game since the first weekend in October but they did win that game at Kentucky for the only road win of the season and the Rebels only had one road win last year.

For Mississippi State this is a chance to win consecutive Egg Bowls for the first time since 2011 and a chance to bolster its postseason position. Most projections call for the Bulldogs to face a prominent Big Ten team like Penn State or Michigan in either the Outback Bowl or Citrus Bowl for an attractive high profile New Year’s Day draw for the program. A loss could mean sliding to potentially the December 30 Liberty Bowl vs. a Big XII team.

Last season: This was a bowl elimination game between 5-6 teams last season in Oxford. It was a back-and-forth first half with a 27-20 lead for Mississippi State. That score held until just over five minutes to go in the third quarter before the Bulldogs went on a 28-0 run the close the game for a somewhat misleading 55-20 final result. Mississippi State had just a 566-528 yardage edge and benefitted from a 2-1 turnover edge including a 4th quarter pick-six. Fitzgerald rushed for 258 yards and accounted for five touchdowns while Patterson threw for 320 yards but had two interceptions to match his two touchdowns.

Historical Trends:

-- Mississippi State has won and covered in five of eight meetings since 2009.

-- Mississippi State hasn’t been a double-digit favorite in this series since 2011 and before that not since 1981.

-- The Bulldogs are 7-2 S/U in Starkville in this series since 1999 though just 5-4 ATS and they lost the last home meeting in 2015.

-- Under Mullen the Bulldogs are 39-1 S/U as a double-digit favorite but just 20-20 ATS.

-- In that span Mississippi State is 40-20 S/U at home with a 33-25-1 ATS record at Davis Wade, going 5-1 ATS at home this season.

-- Ole Miss is 15-27 S/U and 18-23-1 ATS on the road since 2009. Going back to 1997 the Rebels are 29-18-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 23

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OLE MISS (5 - 6) at MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 3) - 11/23/2017, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Thursday, November 23

MISSISSIPPI @ MISSISSIPPI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Mississippi's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday’s game
Mississippi State pounded Ole Miss 55-20 LY, just their 2nd win in last five Egg Bowls; State ran ball for 457 yards in LY’s game. Rebels lost three of last four visits to Starkville, with losses by 7-28-14 points. Ole Miss is 1-3 on road, with only win 37-34 win at Kentucky; 2-1 as a road underdog. Miss State won five of its last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as a favorite this year; they covered five of last six games overall. Over is 7-1 in last eight Ole Miss games, under is 7-2 in State’s last nine. This is last game of season for Rebels, who are on probation.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

Thursday, November 23

Mississippi @ Mississippi St

Game 113-114
November 23, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi
85.504
Mississippi St
102.460
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 17
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 14
65
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-14); Over

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 23
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MISS at MSST 07:30 PM

MSST -13.5

U 64.5

[StarDust Bum]

Ole Miss stuns Miss St. in Egg Bowl
November 23, 2017

STARKVILLE, Miss. (AP) A.J. Brown thought the ball was overthrown, but kept sprinting and stuck his arms out as far as they would go. The Mississippi receiver was astonished when the ball stuck right in his hands and he ran for a crucial touchdown.

After a year of bad news, things were finally going the Rebels' way in the Egg Bowl.

Ole Miss stunned No. 16 Mississippi State 31-28 on Thursday night, jumping out to a big second-half lead and holding on in the final minutes to win the rivalry game for the fourth time in six seasons.

The Rebels (6-6, 3-5 Southeastern Conference) had a 10-6 lead at halftime and then broke the game open in the third quarter with Brown's 77-yard touchdown catch and another 63-yard touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalf.

''I'm just so happy for our players and our fans,'' Ole Miss interim coach Matt Luke said. ''This means so much to them. It hasn't always been easy this year. We've been on some better teams with better records, but they'll always remember this year and how they fought through adversity.''

It's a sweet ending to a rough season for the Rebels. Ole Miss isn't eligible for a bowl game because of a self-imposed postseason ban related to an NCAA infractions case that continues to hover over the program. The Rebels also lost head coach Hugh Freeze when he resigned during the summer after a school investigation into his phone records .

''The record wasn't what we wanted it to be,'' running back Jordan Wilkins said. ''But we kept fighting as a team ... There's no better feeling than to finish it off like this.''

Jordan Ta'amu threw for 247 yards and the two touchdowns to Brown and Metcalf. Wilkins added 110 yards rushing and two touchdowns.

Brown, the SEC's leader in yards receiving, had six catches for 167 yards. The sophomore went to high school a few miles away from Mississippi State's campus at Starkville High School and had a big game in his return.

Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4) was a two-touchdown favorite, but had to play most of the game without starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. He was carted off the field in the first quarter with a right leg injury.

Fitzgerald came into the game with 968 yards rushing this season, which was the most for a quarterback in the SEC. Without him, the Bulldogs turned to freshman Keytaon Thompson, but the offense wasn't nearly as effective until the fourth quarter.

The Bulldogs trailed 31-13 with 8:23 remaining, but scored two touchdowns to pull to 31-28 with 1:05 left. Ole Miss recovered an onside kick to seal the victory.

''We just ran out of time there at the end,'' Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. ''Our guys gave relentless effort for 60 minutes. I just wish we had 61 or 62.''

Mississippi State hurt itself with five turnovers - two interceptions and three fumbles.

The game took a rough turn later in the first quarter when Fitzgerald took a snap and ran to the left before being tackled to the ground. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound junior immediately grabbed at his right leg, which was bent at an awkward angle. He was down for several minutes before leaving on the cart.

Mullen said after the game that Fitzgerald dislocated his ankle, but didn't have any further information.

THE TAKEAWAY

Ole Miss: Ole Miss has an eventful offseason ahead of it - the program is still awaiting word on its full punishment from the NCAA in its rules infractions case against the school. The Rebels will also decide if they'll keep Luke or turn to someone else to lead the program.

After the game, players chanted ''We want Luke!'' in the locker room and Brown said he thought Luke should be the coach going forward.

''I really love that guy and I want him to be the head coach,'' Brown said.

Mississippi State: The Bulldogs had all the momentum coming into Thursday's game, but Fitzgerald's injury changed all that in a hurry.

UP NEXT

Ole Miss' season is over.

Mississippi State prepares for its eighth straight trip to a bowl game.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


11/23/20171-1-050.00%-0.50
11/21/20171-5-016.67%-22.50
11/18/2017 25-30-0 45.45% -40.00
11/17/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
11/16/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/15/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/14/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -1150
11/11/2017 28-26-4 51.85% -300
11/09/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
11/08/2017 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
11/07/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/04/2017 26-28-2 48.15% -24.00
11/03/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals.............101 - 120.........45.70%.....-145.00

Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTAL

11/22/2017......................0 - 1............-5.50...................1 - 0.................+5.00
11/21/2017......................0 - 3............-16.50.................1- 2..................-6.00
11/18/2017.....................17 - 18.........-14.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50
11/17/2017......................2 - 0...........+10.00.................1 -1...................-0.50
11/16/2017......................1 - 1...........-0.50....................0 - 2.................-11.00
11/15/2017......................1 - 0...........+5.00...................1 - 1.................-0.50
11/14/2017......................0 - 2...........-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.50
11/11/2017....................6 - 7 - 1.........-8.50...................4 - 0..................+20.00
11/09/2017......................1 - 2............-6.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00
11/08/2017......................0 - 1............-5.50...................0 - 3..................-16.50
11/07/2017......................0 - 2............-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.50
11/04/2017....................11 - 10..........+0.00...................5 - 2.................+14.00
11/03/2017......................2 - 1............+4.50..................0 - 2..................-11.00
11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00

Totals.........................44 - 48 - 1..........-44.00..................19 - 19..............-9.00

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Best Bets
November 22, 2017

Black Friday College Football Best Bets

The Thanksgiving holiday brings four four days of football action between the college ranks and the pros and it's a great time to not only enjoy time with your family, but make add a few units to your betting bankroll as well.

It's also rivalry week in the college football world and with plenty of huge games on tap before Conference Championship games kick off in a week, the handle on some of these huge college games should be through the roof.

Black Friday is the day when college football fans get an extra day of that all-day Saturday feeling and this year we've got 15 different games spread out across the full day. There are definitely some high-profile matchups, headlined by #2 Miami laying nearly double-digits on the road against Pittsburgh, but it's two other games from slightly smaller conferences that I'll be focused on that day.

Best Bet #1: Buffalo Bulls +5

Teams in the MAC are used to having the spotlight on weekdays, but after Akron won (but didn't cover as I correctly predicted here) on Tuesday, the Zips clinched the East Division crown and left everyone else in the division simply playing out the string. That's notable for Buffalo's opponent in this game – the Ohio Bobcats – as despite a great year (8-3 SU overall) they won't have an opportunity to play for the Conference Championship next week after losing outright to Akron two weeks ago as double-digit favorites.

At 8-3 SU, the Bobcats have been Bowl eligible for awhile, and while a double-digit win season would be a nice feather in the cap, it's hard to imagine Ohio having any sort of motivation to come out and play their best football on Friday.

Conversely, Buffalo has been out of the MAC Championship picture for awhile, but with a 5-6 SU record overall, they've got everything to play for here – specifically becoming Bowl eligible. This is a program that hasn't been to a Bowl game since 2013, and getting HC Lance Leipold his first Bowl bid in his 3rd year with the program would be a huge accomplishment.

Schools love to make it to a Bowl game for all the money and benefits that come with it, but for coaches, that extra two to three weeks of practice time they get can be vital to a program, especially one that's still building for the future. So with the favorite in this game having basically no motivation and nothing really to play for, and a home underdog with seemingly everything to play for I simply can't pass up the points here.

Buffalo has turned it on down the stretch with two SU wins the last two weeks, and with an 8-3 ATS mark on the year, they've been kind to bettors throughout 2017. Close games against quality rivals is nothing new for the Bulls as three of their losses in conference play have come by three points or less. Two of those were one point defeats against the likes of Akron and Northern Illinois – both of whom were or are playing for a division title all year long, and the other was a three-point OT loss in a wild 71-68 six-OT game against Western Michigan.

Ohio is a similar caliber of team to all three of those opponents, but with zero motivation on the Bobcats side this week, don't be surprised to see Buffalo come away with the outright win to accomplish that goal of getting to a Bowl game.

Best Bet #2: South Florida +10

Motivation will not be an issue in this game as the 9-1 SU USF Bulls head to Central Florida to take on the #13 ranked UCF Knights. This is a game with 1st place in the AAC East Division on the line and subsequently a berth in the AAC Conference Championship game to face Memphis a week later as well. Oh, and don't forget about UCF's bid to finish the year undefeated and potentially be a “Bowl Buster” come selection time.

With the stakes as high as they are, seeing UCF laying double-digits was a bit perplexing, even more so when you consider nearly 70% of the ATS money has come there way already. Now, many bettors are bypassing the points with USF and simply grabbing the ML price (not a horrible idea if you ask me), but taking the points is the better play overall in a game that should go down to the wire. Both teams match up very well on either side of the ball, and USF does have that little mental edge in their favor knowing they've pounded UCF each of the past two years in 48-31 and 44-3 victories.

With UCF HC Scott Frost being the hot name in coaching to jump to a bigger program in the very near future, you've always got to wonder about focus in terms of getting his guys prepared. Seemingly every year around this time of the year we've got a handful of coaches who've had great success at Mid-Majors jumping ship in December for that big payday elsewhere, and when that does happen it's the team they left behind that suffers mightily. UCF isn't in that spot as of now, but there is no doubt it's on everyone's mind, and if they do end up losing this game SU – costing them their perfect season and AAC Championship berth, don't be surprised to hear Frost's name directly connected to one of those big schools with coaching vacancies he's been linked to for weeks.

Regarding this game though, it's simply too many points to give a very good USF team that is led by a guy in Charlie Strong who has already lived the “success at small school – big payday at big program – and subsequent struggles at said big program” that Frost's situation is just entering. Strong may not be the greatest CFB coach out there, but his team has been looking ahead to this showdown for weeks as evidenced by a pair of “close” wins over Uconn (37-20) and Tulsa (27-20) when the Bulls were laying -23 and -24 points respectively. I've always subscribed to the notion that fading programs in potential look-ahead spots can be highly lucrative, but when the game that team has been waiting for finally arrives, you'd better be prepared to back them in a big way.

That is precisely the situation the USF Bulls have here, and with all the noise about a potential perfect season and Frost's departure from the program (likely), there are just too many concerns with UCF in this spot as healthy favorites. USF is on a 5-1 ATS run in their last six against a winning foe – which also tells you just how much they've had their focus on this game with since losing outright to Houston a few weeks back (they are 0-4 ATS against lesser competition the past four weeks) – and should stay well within this number of +10, if not win the game outright.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Tip Sheet
November 23, 2017

**Missouri at Arkansas**

-- Missouri (6-5 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) is absolutely on fire. Barry Odom’s team took a 1-3 SU record and a 0-4 ATS mark into its open date following a 51-14 home loss to Auburn. Since then, however, the Tigers have covered the number in seven straight games. They covered as underdogs in losses at Kentucky (40-34) and at Georgia (53-28), and then proceeded to win five in a row by margins of 47, 40, 29, 33 and 28 points. During this seven-game ATS surge, junior quarterback Drew Lock has an amazing 28/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

-- Missouri bolted out to a 35-0 halftime lead at Vanderbilt last week, essentially placing a pad lock on covering as a 7.5-point road favorite in the game’s first 30 minutes. Odom’s team would prevail by a 45-17 count, with the 62 combined points dropping ‘under’ the closing 64.5-point total. This was a heartbreaker for those like me that were on the ‘over.’ That’s because the Commodores came up empty on a drive covering 78 yards late in the fourth quarter. On first and goal from the Missouri five-yard line, Kyle Shurmur threw an incomplete pass. Then he was sacked on second and goal for a three-yard loss, but an unsportsmanlike conduct call on the Tigers gave Vandy another first and goal at the four. The next play was a three-yard loss, but Missouri was offsides to create a third first-and-goal play from the 2-yard line. This time around, Shurmur was intercepted, but Terry Beckner Jr. appeared to be in the clear for a pick-six. With just one man to beat near midfield, a shoestring tackle was made to stop Beckner 47 yards short of a pick-six TD that would’ve cashed tickets for ‘over’ supporters. OUCH!

-- Lock completed 10-of-25 throws at Vandy for 235 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ish Witter rushed 16 times for 102 yards, while redshirt freshman TE Albert Okwuegbunam had five receptions for 116 yards and two TDs. Richaud Floyd had a 30-yard TD catch and also scored on a 74-yard punt return.

-- For the season, Lock has connected on 58.0 percent of his passes for 3,247 yards with a 38/10 TD-INT ratio. Witter has run for 822 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. True freshman RB Larry Rountree has rushed for 577 yards and six scores while averaging 5.9 YPC. Damarea Crockett had rushed for 481 yards and two TDs with a 6.9 YPC average, but he injured his shoulder at UGA and will miss a sixth consecutive game at Arkansas.

-- J’Mon Moore is Lock’s favorite target, hauling in 50 receptions for 857 yards and nine TDs. Emanuel Hall has 31 catches for 706 yards and six TDs, while Johnathon Johnson has 37 grabs for 615 yards and five TDs. Okwuegbunam has 20 receptions for 309 yards and nine TDs. Floyd is incredible on special teams, averaging 19.8 yards per punt return with two TDs. He also has 14 catches for 170 yards and two TDs.

-- Missouri is ranked 11th in the nation in total offense, 16th in passing yards and 14th in scoring with a 38.5 points-per-game average.

-- As of early Thursday, most books had Missouri installed as a 9 or 9.5-point favorite with a total of 70. The Razorbacks were +290 on the money line (risk $100 to win $290).

-- Missouri has compiled a 4-0 spread record with a pair of outright wins on the road this year. The Tigers are 2-0 ATS as road ‘chalk’ since Odom took over at the start of the 2016 campaign. Both of those covers as road favorites came this season.

-- Arkansas (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) is 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS at home. The Razorbacks covered the spread in last week’s 28-21 home loss to Mississippi State as 14-point home underdogs. Austin Allen was playing in his second game since returning from a shoulder injury that caused him to miss four consecutive contests. Allen completed just 12-of-18 passes for 124 yards, and the offense generated just 221 yards. Nevertheless, Arkansas never trailed until 17 seconds were left and the Bulldogs scored the game-winning TD on a six-yard pass from Nick Fitzgerald to Deddrick Thomas.

-- Arkansas is 1-6 in SEC play, picking up its only win at Ole Miss when it rallied from a 24-point deficit to win 37-35 on a last-second field goal. The Razorbacks have gone 2-2 in four one-possession games. They’re 7-7 ATS in 14 spots as home underdogs during Bret Bielema’s five-year tenure

-- Arkansas is 29-33 on Bielema’s watch, limping to an 11-28 record in SEC games. This is why Bielema’s tenure is guaranteed to come to an end at some point on Sunday or Monday at the latest. Multiple reports indicate that the Razorbacks’ top target to hire as their next head coach is former offensive coordinator and current Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn. This potential hire undoubtedly hinges on the result of Saturday’s Iron Bowl. Malzahn won’t be leaving The Plains if his team wins the SEC West. Arkansas would be wise to make Washington State’s Mike Leach its next target, but it would probably need Washington to win the Apple Cup for that notion to become remotely possible. Perhaps West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen would be interested? If not, Mike Norvell at Memphis is certainly someone who would accept an offer.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Tigers, 2-2 in their four road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 69.1 points per game. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in three of their last four games.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Hogs, 3-3 in their home contests. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 62.4 PPG. This is the highest Arkansas total has seen this season by eight points. It has had three totals in the 60s (62, 61 & 60.5), watching the ‘over’ go 2-1 in those three outings.

-- These schools have met five times since 2003, with the ‘under’ cashing in each encounter. In the three meetings between these schools since Missouri joined the SEC, the home team has prevailed every time. The Tigers rallied in the second half in 2014 to win a 21-14 decision as two-point home underdogs. In ’15 at Arkansas, the Razorbacks won 28-3 and also took the cash as 15-point home ‘chalk.’ Then last season back in Columbia, Missouri won 28-24 as a 7.5-point home underdog. The Tigers trailed 24-7 at intermission, only to outscore the Hogs 21-0 in the second half. Arkansas enjoyed a 503-399 advantage in total offense, but Allen threw a pair of costly second-half interceptions. He completed 24-of-39 throws for 349 yards and one TD. Lock connected on 16-of-26 passes for 268 yards and one TD without a pick. Moore had six catches for 135 yards. This defeat, coupled with Arkansas blowing a 24-0 halftime lead over Virginia Tech at last year’s Belk Bowl to lose 35-24, is what started Bielema’s demise in the Ozarks.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**South Florida at Central Florida**

-- This game will decide the winner of the AAC’s East Division and determine a challenger for Memphis is next week’s AAC Championship Game. As of early Thursday, most books had UCF (10-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 63. The Bulls were +300 to win outright (risk $100 to win $300).

-- Both teams have had to listen to rumors of their respective coaches being linked to other jobs over the last two weeks. UCF’s second-year head coach Scott Frost is a Nebraska alum and his parents live in Lincoln. He is believed to be the Cornhuskers’ top choice to replace Mike Riley, who is going to be fired before the end of the weekend. Frost is also thought to be on Florida’s radar, as is USF’s Charlie Strong, who spent most of his years as an assistant coach at UF before scoring his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. Strong was the defensive coordinator for the Gators when they won two of their three national titles. Strong may also draw interest from Ole Miss in its coaching search.

-- When Frost took over in Orlando, UCF was coming off a dreadful 0-12 campaign. In his first year at the helm, Frost led the Knights to an 8-5 record and a bowl bid. And now in Year 2, he has a 19-5 overall record and is on the cusp of winning the division and perhaps a conference championship.

-- UCF is unbeaten in five home games with a 3-2 spread record. The Knights have won their home outings by margins of 44, 27, 42, 40 and 25 points. The only non-covers came when they were laying enormous numbers of 43.5 and 39.

-- UCF has become overpriced over the last month and change. This is evidenced by the Knights’ 1-3-1 spread record in their last five outings. This 10-point spread vs. USF is the lowest line for UCF since it won 31-21 at Navy on Oct. 21.

-- UCF is led by true sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who has completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,928 yards with a 26/5 TD-INT ratio. Milton can make plays with his legs, too. He has rushed for 373 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. Sophomore RB Adrian Killins Jr. has rushed for a team-high 629 yards and eight TDs, averaging 7.5 YPC. The Knight have four other RBs who have run for at least 144 yards. Taj McGowan has eight rushing scores.

-- Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 44 receptions for 850 yards and 11 TDs. Dredrick Snelson has 29 catches for 430 yards and three TDs.

--UCF won its 11 straight game last week when it went to Philadelphia and captured a 45-19 victory at Temple as a 13.5-point road favorite. The 64 combined points went ‘over’ the 59.5-point to hit for a second straight time for the Knights, who have seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven contests. After falling behind 10-7 early in the second quarter, UCF went on a 38-3 run and coasted into the win column both SU and ATS. Milton threw for 208 yards and four TDs without an interception. True freshman RB Otis Anderson rushed for a team-best 58 yards on only five attempts, while Milton also scored on a four-yard TD run. Senior LB Shaqueem Griffin had one of UCF’s four interceptions.

-- UCF’s most impressive scalps include a 40-13 home win over Memphis, a 38-10 win at Maryland, a 31-21 triumph at Navy and a 31-24 victory at SMU.

-- Griffin is the leader for the Knights on defense. A first-team All-AAC selection last year, he has recorded 47 tackles, three sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries, two forced fumbles, one pass broken up, one interception and one fumble recovery that he returned 20 yards for a TD.

-- UCF is ranked fifth in the nation in total offense and first in scoring, averaging an FBS-high 48.2 PPG. The Knights are 11th in the country in passing yards and 32nd in rushing yards. They’re ranked 27th in the nation in scoring defense (20.5 PPG).

-- USF (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) has won all four of its road assignments, but it has managed only a 1-3 spread record. With that said, we should note that this is the Bulls’ first game as underdogs since facing FSU in Week 4 of the ’16 campaign. Not only has USF been favored in each game this season, but it has been a double-digit ‘chalk’ in all 10 games of this year and the last three of ’16.

-- Charlie Strong’s team played a cupcake schedule, which certainly isn’t a reflection upon him. He arrived to replace Willie Taggart, who went to Oregon after leading the Bulls to an 11-win season in ’16. Strong was relieved of his duties at Texas after three disappointing years. He didn’t make this year’s USF schedule. Nevertheless, USF won its first six games by margins of at least 14 points. The Bulls are mired in a 0-4 ATS slump, however.

-- USF took its first loss of the season at home against Houston on October 28. The Cougars came to Tampa and beat the Bulls, 28-24, as 10-point road underdogs. Strong’s bunch either led or was tied for the first 59 minutes 49 seconds, but Houston scored the game-winning TD on a D’Eriq King 20-yard TD run with 11 seconds remaining. Quinton Flowers threw for 325 yards and had a pair of TD runs in the losing effort. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 10 receptions for 186 yards.

-- Flowers hasn’t been able to match his numbers from ’16 when he ran for 1,530 yards and 18 TDs with a 7.7 YPC average. He also threw for 2,812 yards with a 24/7 TD-INT ratio. This year as a senior, Flowers has completed 53.5 percent of his passes (down from 62.5%) for 2,097 yards with a 17/5 TD-INT ratio. He has run for 870 yards and nine TDs with a 5.4 YPC average. Darius Tice has rushed for 860 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. D’Ernest Johnson has run for 715 yards and seven TDs, with a 4.3 YPC average.

-- Valdes-Scantling has a team-best 48 receptions for 737 yards and five TDs. Tyre McCants has 21 catches for 371 yards and four TDs.

-- Since 2007, the Bulls have compiled a 19-9 spread record in 28 games as a road underdog. However, this is their first such spot since winning 22-17 at East Carolina as four-point ‘dogs late in the ’15 campaign.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Knights, 4-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 68.7 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for USF, 2-2 in its road assignments. The Bulls have seen their games average combined scores of 57.8 PPG.

-- ABC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Chip Kelly isn’t signing a contract with any school until at least Sunday because if he gets a new job before that team’s 2017 season is done, he won’t get a guaranteed $5 million payment from the San Francisco 49ers.

-- I’m not implying Jimbo Fisher will jump from FSU to Texas A&M or Auburn (if this job opens, which would potentially happen if Auburn loses the Iron Bowl and Gus Malzahn bolts for Arkansas. Then again, this Malzahn-to-the-Ozarks rumor, especially the part about him having input on the new AD, is probably just Jimmie Sexton’s nonsense noise to his media minions for the purpose of getting Malzahn an extension and more cash from AU.) But if he does, the buyout payment to FSU from Fisher or the school that hires him is only $8 million. You may have seen reports/tweets, etc. about Fisher’s buyout being north of $35 million, but that number only pertains to what the Seminoles would have to pay Fisher if they wanted to fire him before his contract is over.

-- Washington State owns a 14-5 spread record in its last 19 games as a road underdog. The Cougars were +9.5 as of Thursday for their Saturday game at Washington for the Apple Cup. A Washington State win puts it in the Pac-12 Championship Game, while a UW victory means Stanford would face USC to determine the league champ.

-- Stanford has been a home underdog just three times during David Shaw’s seven-year tenure, winning outright in each instance, including a 30-22 win over Washington two weeks ago. In fact, if we go back to the 2007 regular-season finale, Stanford has compiled an 8-0 spread record with seven outright victories in eight games as a home ‘dog.

[StarDust Bum]

Fading Alabama
November 23, 2017

Bet Against Alabama Winning The CFP Championship

It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be part of the College Football Playoffs. Right now they’re +130 to win the title, which is all fair play. There’s still a lot of football to play, but it’s hard to imagine the Tide slipping out of the picture.

What could help trigger an earthquake in the standings is the Alabama-Auburn game this weekend. The Iron Bowl is one of my favorite betting matchups of the year and it should be amongst yours as well. What makes this year so tantalizing? Well for one, the Crimson Tide are favored by just -4.5 points on the road.

That’s the lowest spread this matchup has had in a decade, and equal to the line the Tide faced in 2010 when Cam Newton led the most insane comeback of all time.

For whatever it’s worthy, while my head really wants to bet on Alabama as a freight train, I do not love them on the road this year. Alabama has recently survived Mississippi State 31-24 as -14.5 point favorites and Texas A&M as 27-19 facing a -25.0 point line. If any team plays with an arrogant confidence that they can take down Alabama, it’s the Auburn Tigers.

What’s even more intriguing about this matchup is how it impacts the future of the College Football Playoffs. If you look at the list below, there are at least eight teams that are properly in the mix. This ranges from Ohio State at +1600 all the way up to Alabama at +130. And as you know, there’s only room for four teams in the playoffs.

Odds to Win College Football Playoffs - per BetOnline.ag
Alabama +130
Clemson +400
Oklahoma +600
Auburn +700
Miami +800
Georgia +1000
Wisconsin +1200
Ohio State +1600

You’re going to look at these odds one of two ways. Either you believe that the Crimson Tide’s +130 price tag to win the championship this year is as good as gold…or you don’t. So where do you put your money? Do you like Baker Mayfield? Urban Meyer? The defending champions?

Or would you just like to bet on everybody else? That’s right – you can bet on the field (i.e. the rest of the country) to win the CFP Championship straight up for -150. That’s a hell of a deal.

Alabama to Win College Football Playoffs
Yes +130
No -150

The beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen. The pressure of winning two games back-to-back can be overwhelming, and while this Alabama team is rolling heavy, they’re not unbeatable. No team ever really is. Having to saddle up against two great college football teams is an immeasurably difficult task and the Tide aren’t so far ahead of the class that they’re a guarantee.

So if you love Alabama, take them at +130. They’re a great bet because they’re always in the playoff picture and knocking on the door to the championship. Most of the time, they win it.

But if there’s a part of you that loathes Nick Saban, can’t stand Alabama’s dynasty or simply prefers anyone else on the board, then -150 is a great value for a field play.

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Stats - Week 13
November 22, 2017

Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.

Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:

College Football: Wake Forest
NFL: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST

Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.

Play On ITS teams: Alabama 10-1, Central Florida 9-1, Georgia 10-1, Oklahoma 11-0, Oklahoma State 10-1, South Florida 10-0, and Wisconsin 11-0.

Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-10-1, Rutgers 1-10, and UTEP 1-10.

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY

It’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.

The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Seven (the second-half of the season), as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.

Positive Game Seven Out Net Stats: East Carolina +104, Georgia Southern +109, and Missouri +154.

Negative Game Seven Out Net Stats: Ball State -118, Georgia Tech -107, Oklahoma State -104, Oregon -104, and Virginia -104.

LEAKING OIL

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.

College Football: Kansas State 0-8, Wyoming 0-3.

NFL: Cincinnati Bengals 0-5, Washington Redskins 0-5.

SEASON-HIGH, SEASON-LOW

One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season.

When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit. Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.

With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:

Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 4, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.

Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, UCLA 4, UL Lafayette 5, and UL Monroe 5.

On the NFL side of things…

Season-lows: Carolina Panthers 4, Jacksonville Jaguars 6.

Season-highs: Buffalo Bills 0-3, New York Giants 3, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

STAT OF THE WEEK

South Florida has scored 24 or more points in each of its last 27 games. Central Florida is 3-18 SU and 4-17 ATS in its last 21 lined games in which it has yielded 24 or more points.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 13
November 23, 2017

2017 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 7-4 5-3 6-5 8-3
Arizona State 6-5 5-3 6-5 5-6
California 5-6 2-6 7-4 5-6
Colorado 5-6 2-6 3-7-1 6-5
Oregon 6-5 3-5 5-6 4-7
Oregon State 1-10 0-8 3-8 8-3
Southern California 10-2 8-1 3-8-1 7-5
Stanford 8-3 7-2 4-6-1 4-7
UCLA 5-6 3-5 4-7 8-3
Utah 5-6 2-6 7-3-1 6-5
Washington 9-2 6-2 6-5 5-6
Washington State 9-2 6-2 7-4 4-7

California at UCLA (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Golden Bears and Bruins close out their regular season on Friday night, and it's an important game. The winner gains bowl eligibility and the loser is home for the holidays. Cal opened the season with a win and cover at North Carolina, but they have dropped each of their past four road games while going 1-3 ATS. UCLA kicked off their season with an amazing 45-44 comeback against Texas A&M, and they haven't lose at the Rose Bowl since. They're 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in five outings at home this season. The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings in this series, with the underdog 14-6-1 ATS in the past 21 in this series. However, Cal is just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight tries at UCLA, with the under 4-1 in the past five in Pasadena. The under is 4-0 in the past four in this series, too.

Arizona at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Grand Canyon State rivalry takes place in Tempe, and both teams are already eligible for the postseason. However, they can certainly improve their bowl profile with a victory, especially Arizona if they can get to eight victories. The Wildcats have cashed in just eight of the past 25 games overall, while going 5-11 ATS in the past 16 conference tilts. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS in the past 12 games on the road, including 1-7 ATS in the past eight on the road against teams with a winning home record. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS over their past eight league games. They're also 11-4 ATS in the past 15 at home. In this series, the home team has hit in each of the past four meetings and the over is 5-0 in the past five in the series.

Oregon State at Oregon (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The 1-10 Beavers head to Eugene looking to put a damper on the closing of their rivals' season. However, Oregon has already clinched bowl eligibility, and they're loooking to enter the postseason on a high note. The Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road, while going 3-8 ATS in the past 11 overall. The Ducks haven't been much better lately, posting a 5-13 ATS mark in the past 18 conference battles, while going 0-5 ATS in the past five against losing teams and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 after a straight-up win. Oregon is up to a 25-point favorite as of Thursday morning, which is pretty high for the 'Civil War'. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Eugene, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 in this series. The underdog is also 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series. The over has cashed in seven straight in Eugene, and 12-3 in the past 15 meetings overall.

Notre Dame at Stanford (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Notre Dame heads to 'The Farm' looking to get back into the playoff conversation. A humbling loss at Miami has them on the outside looking in, but an impressive win and some craziness this weekend and in conference championships could get them back in the mix. However, they need to slow the dynamic Bryce Love and the Cardinal offense. Stanford finds themselves as short 'dogs at home, but they're 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The Cardinal are also 7-3 ATS in the past 10 home games against a team with a winning road mark. Notre Dame is 7-19 ATS in the past 26 in November, and 1-4 ATS in the past five road games against a team with a winning home record. The underdog is also 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, with the under cashing in six of the past seven.The Irish are 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Palo Alto, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

Washington State at Washington (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
It's time for the Apple Cup, and the Huskies can punch their ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game against USC with a win. If Washington State is victorious, Stanford heads to the league title game. Vegas thinks the Huskies will be victorious, as they're installed as a double-digit favorite heading into this one. Both sides are 5-1 ATS in their past six against winning teams, and the Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall while the Huskies have hit in five of their past seven at home. Looking at the head-to-head numbers might help you decide a side. The favorite has cashed in six of the past eight in this series, while the Cougs are 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under has hit in seven of the past nine meetings in Seattle.

Colorado at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
The Buffaloes and Utes wrap up the Pac-12 regular season, and Utah is installed as a 10 1/2-point favorite as of Thursday morning. Like Cal-UCLA above, this is an important game. The winner will become bowl eligible, while the loser will be left shaking their heads, watching the winner on TV during bowl season from the comfort of their couch. The Buffs are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six in conference, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road. They're also a dismal 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Utes are a solid 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 overall, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six tries against Colorado. The underdog has cashed in six in a row in this series.

Bye Week
Southern California

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Report - Week 13
November 22, 2017

2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 1-10 1-7 4-7 4-7
Iowa State 7-4 5-3 9-1-1 4-7
Kansas 1-10 0-8 4-7 6-5
Kansas State 6-5 4-4 5-5-1 6-5
Oklahoma 10-1 7-1 6-5 6-5
Oklahoma State 8-3 5-3 5-6 8-3
Texas 6-5 5-3 7-3-1 3-8
Texas Christian 9-2 6-2 6-5 2-9
Texas Tech 5-6 2-6 6-5 4-7
West Virginia 7-4 5-3 5-5-1 6-4-1

Baylor at Texas Christian (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The lost season for the Bears will come to an end at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have bigger aspirations, as they put their 5-0 SU home record on the line. Neither side has been particularly strong against the number this season. Baylor is 10-21 ATS over the past 31 games overall, 3-8 ATS in the past 11 road games and 1-7 ATS in the past eight in the month of November. TCU is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against losing teams, 2-11 ATS in their past 13 at home and 1-5 ATS in their past six at home against teams with a losing road record. The 'under' has been the play for both sides. The under is 4-0 in the past four for Baylor, 4-1 in their past five road games and 6-0 in their past six on the road against a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-1 in TCU's past five home games, 16-5 in the past 21 games overall and 20-7 in the past 27 conference battles. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings, although the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings, too.

Texas Tech at Texas (Fri. - FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
The Longhorns secured bowl eligibility last weekend with a big win on the road at West Virginia. Now, they look to play spoiler to Texas Tech, keeping them from bowl eligibility, while improving their standing and potential payday in the postseason with another win. Texas heads into this one as a double-digit favorite, and they're 2-1 ATS over their past three favored by 10 or more points while going a perfect 3-0 SU. The Red Raiders are just 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning mark. The Longhorns are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five conference battles. The road team has hit in four of the past five in this series, but the Red Raiders are a dismal 1-6 ATS over the past seven meetings. The under has hit in four of the past five battles in this rivalry.

Kansas at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Jayhawks wrap up another dismal season in Stillwater, and they're underdogs by 40-plus points. The Cowboys are looking to rebound after dropping two of the past three overall, including two in a row at home. The Cowboys are also in a tailspin against the number, too, going 0-3 ATS in the past three, and 2-6 ATS across the past eight. The 'over' has hit in four in a row, too. The Jayhawks have dropped 10 in a row since topping FCS foe Southeast Missouri State in their opener. However, they have been a respectable 3-1 ATS over their past four, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 24 or more points. The Jayhawks are a dismal 3-11 ATS in the past 14 in this series, including 1-6 ATS in their past seven sojourns to Stillwater.

Iowa State at Kansas State (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Both the Cyclones and Wildcats are going bowling this season, but they would like to add another win to their resume and improve their postseason situation. Maybe people felt K-State would be in this position, heading to the postseason, but not many felt Iowa State would be in this spot. They have won some big games, including at Oklahoma earlier in the season, while posting a 6-0-1 ATS mark in the past seven conference games, and 4-0-1 ATS in the past five road outings. K-State is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 home games agaisnt a team with a winning road record, but 2-8 ATS in their past 10 following a straight-up win. The under is 5-1 in Iowa State's past six overall, 4-1 in their past five road games and 5-1 in the past six league outings. The Cyclones are also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the home team 3-1-1 ATS in the past five in this series and the underdog posting a 4-1-1 ATS mark across the past six.

West Virginia at Oklahoma (ESPN, 3:45 p.m. ET)
In the final league game of the afternoon, the Mountaineers and Sooners battle each other with a different starting quarterback under center. West Virginia's Will Grier suffered a broken finger and he will be sidelined four to six weeks after having corrective surgery. Chris Chugunov will start in his absence. For Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield didn't care for Kansas not shaking his hand last week. He was caught on camera grabbing his crotch and spewing expletives at the Kansas bench, and he has been suspended as a result. While head coach Lincoln Riley did not specify how long the senior QB will sit, Kyler Murray will start the game, and Mayfield will also not serve as a team captain in his final game in Norman.

OU opened as a 21-point favorite, and the line is up to 22 1/2 as of early Wednesday morning. The Mountaineers are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, while going 1-3-1 ATS over their past five overall. Oklahoma has cashed in 10 of their past 11 against teams with a winning mark, and they're 9-1 ATS across their past 10 at home, with that only non-cover coming in an upset loss to Iowa State. The over has connected in five of the past six meetings in this series, too.