The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

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'Semifinal Saturday' takes place in ACC
November 2, 2017

Things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference in Week 10:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 13 Virginia Tech at No. 9 Miami. It is a semifinal Saturday in the ACC with the top two teams in both divisions facing off. Give the edge to the Virginia Tech-Miami matchup as the marquee contest over Clemson-North Carolina State based on the better average combined ranking. The Hurricanes (7-0, 5-0), whose 12-game winning streak is the longest in the FBS, can clinch their first ACC title-game berth with a victory and a Georgia Tech win over Virginia. Their last four ACC wins have come by an average of 4.5 points. The Hokies (7-1, 3-1) have won three in a row and have allowed just 51 total points in conference games.

BEST MATCHUP: Clemson's rushing offense vs. North Carolina State's run defense. The 20th-ranked Wolfpack (6-2, 4-0) - the Atlantic Division's only team without a league loss - had what was by far the ACC's best run defense before Notre Dame shredded them for a season-worst 318 yards allowed. They'll need to prove that was an outlier in this visit from the sixth-ranked Tigers (7-1, 5-1), after dual-threat QB Kelly Bryant looked healthy again, leading them in rushing in a 24-10 win over Georgia Tech.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Lamar Jackson keeps finding ways to do impressive things, even in a subpar season for a Louisville team that has lost three of four. Jackson, who accounted for four touchdowns and 491 total yards in a 42-32 loss to Wake Forest, joined Clemson's Woody Dantzler as the only ACC quarterbacks with two 1,000-yard rushing seasons and became the fastest player in league history to reach 10,000 total yards, reaching the mark in just 31 career games. With an average of 114.3 yards rushing, he's on pace to become the first quarterback in league history to lead the conference in rushing.

LONG SHOT: Maybe Virginia can find a way to beat the spread - if not the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. The Cavaliers (5-3, 2-2) have lost two straight games with bowl eligibility on the line, and are 9+-point underdogs against Georgia Tech. Virginia's middle-of-the-pack defense will have to step up in its attempt to slow the Yellow Jackets' triple-option offense that once again leads the ACC in rushing (347.9 ypg).

IMPACT PLAYER: Wake Forest is going to need some extra production from junior WR Tabari Hines after top big-play threat Greg Dortch was lost for the season with an abdominal injury suffered during his four-touchdown game against Louisville. Hines is the team's second-leading receiver with 18 catches for 250 yards. QB John Wolford has shown a knack for finding his slot receivers, and Hines looks to slip into that role in Dortch's absence, starting with this week's visit to No. 5 Notre Dame.

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UCLA at Utah
November 2, 2017

Utah will play host to UCLA in a Pac-12 showdown Friday night at 9:30 p.m. Eastern on Fox Sports 1. Both of these clubs are out of the conference race, with the Bruins at 2-3 in league play while the Utes have limped to a 1-4 conference record.

While Kyle Whittingham is certainly safe at Utah in his 13th season since taking over for Urban Meyer in 2005, the same can’t be said for Jim Mora Jr. The former coach of both the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks guided a fast rebuild upon his arrival at UCLA in 2012. Mora went 9-5 in his first season before posting back-to-back 10-3 campaigns. That 29-win stretch in three seasons equalled the amount of victories for the Bruins in the five previous years.

However, UCLA went 8-5 in 2015 before falling to 4-8 last season. In fairness, then-sophomore star quarterback Josh Rosen was injured in the sixth game, a 23-20 loss at Arizona State, that the Bruins went into with a 3-2 record. Nevertheless, at 4-4 currently and with Chip Kelly rumored to be a potential fit for this program, it goes without saying that Friday is a crucial contest for Mora.

As of Thursday morning, most betting shops had Utah (4-4 straight up, 5-2-1 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 59. The Bruins were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).

As we’re filing this story to VI on Thursday morning, the status of Rosen is up in the air. He is listed as ‘questionable’ due to a hand injury sustained in last week’s 44-23 loss at Washington. If he’s ruled ‘out,’ you’ll see this number for the side move north of seven and the total will likely come down a few points.

Utah is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS at home this season. After starting the season 4-0 both SU and ATS with wins vs. North Dakota (37-16), at BYU (19-13), vs. San Jose State (54-16) and at Arizona (30-24), the Utes have dropped four in a row. The first two defeats came by four combined points and with starting QB Tyler Huntley sidelined with an injury.

Troy Williams started all 13 games under center for Utah in last year’s 9-4 campaign, but he was beaten out by Huntley in August. When Huntley was injured at Arizona, Williams scored on a TD run and the Utes prevailed thanks in large part to a huge pick-six in the second half by true freshman DB Javelin Guidry.

In Williams’s first start of the year, Utah lost a 23-20 decision to Stanford as a three-point home underdog. Williams threw for 238 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted twice. Darren Carrington, the grad transfer wide receiver from Oregon, had seven receptions for 99 yards and one TD. RB Zack Moss rushed 15 times for 79 yards and one TD in the losing effort.

Utah went to The Coliseum on Oct. 14 to take on Southern Cal, which won by a 28-27 count thanks to a stop on a two-point conversion attempt by Utah after it scored a potential tying TD on a one-yard run by Williams with 42 seconds left. You can’t blame for Whittingham for going for two on the road and replays showed Williams had Carrington wide open in the end zone, but he instead opted to try and beat defenders to the corner running the ball at the pylon, only to be denied. Even with the conversion failing, Utah still had a chance with an onside kick, but it wasn’t executed. Nevertheless, Utah backers cashed tickets as a 13.5-point road underdog.

Utah actually led the Trojans 21-7 at intermission. Williams’s TD run gave ‘over’ supporters a winner on the 52-point total. The senior QB threw for 262 yards with one TD and one interception. Williams also had a five-yard TD catch from WR Demari Simpkins on a trick play. Moss ran for 141 yards on 20 attempts, while Simpkins had four catches for 58 yards and one TD.

Judging by the results of the last two weeks, it’s as if Utah left its heart and its season at The Coliseum following that gut-wrenching defeat. Huntley returned to the starting lineup vs. Arizona State two weeks ago, but he was horrible in a 30-10 loss as a 10-point home ‘chalk.’

Huntley completed 19-of-35 passes for 155 yards with zero TDs and four interceptions, including a pick-six. The only offense for the Utes was a 53-yard field goal by Matt Gay early in the third quarter and a two-yard TD run by Devonta’e Henry-Cole with 2:42 left in the final stanza.

Utah dropped its fourth straight last week at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, where Oregon dealt out a 41-20 clubbing as a three-point home favorite. The Ducks raced out to a 17-3 lead, but the Utes trimmed the deficit to 17-13 early in the third quarter on Huntley’s one-yard TD pass to Darrin Paulo. Oregon responded with 17 unanswered points, however, and coasted into the win column.

On the bright side, Huntley returned to his previous form, connecting on 25-of-43 throws for 293 yards and two TDs without an interception. He also had 46 rushing yards, albeit on 16 attempts. Carrington had nine receptions for 130 yards, while Singleton finished with five catches for 59 yards. Moss rushed for 53 yards on merely 10 carries.

For the season, Huntley has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,414 yards with an 8/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 288 yards and three TDs, while Moss has run for a team-best 587 yards and three TDs with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. Moss also has 23 catches for 163 yards. Carrington has 54 receptions for 779 yards and five TDs.

UCLA (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) has been an unmitigated disaster on the road, losing all four of its games both SU and ATS. Mora’s team lost 48-45 at Memphis, 58-34 at Stanford, 47-30 at Arizona and 44-23 at Washington.

Rosen has completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 2,713 yards with a 20/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He threw seven of his eight picks in UCLA’s first three road games. Rosen threw nine TDs without an interception in the team’s first two games, orchestrating an incredible 45-44 comeback win over Texas A&M after trailing 44-10 late in the third quarter.

The junior signal caller had at least three TD passes in the first four outings but since then, Rosen has four TD passes compared to four interceptions. He was picked off three times at Arizona, only to bounce back with a pair of TD passes without being intercepted in a 31-14 home win over Oregon two weeks ago.

Then in last week’s loss at Washington, Rosen had to leave the game with the injured hand. Devon Modster, a redshirt freshman and former 4-star recruit, completed 7-of-12 passes for 77 yards and one TD without an interception in relief. He had a nine-yard run in his only attempt on the ground. Senior WR Darren Andrews had eight receptions for 73 yards and one TD.

Andrews, a second-team All Pac-12 selection last season, is enjoying a banner campaign. He has 57 receptions for 707 yards and nine TDs. Andrews also has 37 rushing yards on three carries. Before sustaining a season-ending injury in Week 5, sophomore TD Caleb Wilson was playing like a first-team All-American. He had 38 catches for 490 yards and one TD, including a 15-catch, 208-yard performance against Texas A&M. Jordan Lasley has 32 grabs for 543 yards and three TDs.

Soso Jamabo has run for a team-high 343 yards and five TDs, averaging 4.8 YPC. Bolu Olorunfunmi has 342 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.9 YPC average.

UCLA is ranked 19th in the nation in total offense, fourth in passing yards and 24th in scoring (36.4 PPG). However, the defense has been deplorable. In fact, the Bruins are dead last among 130 FBS teams at defending the run, giving up 307.1 yards per game on the ground. UCLA is No. 121 in the country in total defense and No. 119 in scoring ‘D’ (37.6 PPG).

Making matters worse for the UCLA defense, junior LB Josh Woods went down with a season-ending shoulder injury last week. Woods had recorded 30 tackles (fifth-best on the team), one sack, 2.5 tackles for loss and one QB hurry. Also, starting senior DE Matt Dickerson is ‘questionable’ with a collarbone injury, while sophomore reserve DE Rick Wade is ‘questionable’ with a knee injury. Dickerson has 21 tackles and one TFL, while Wade has 18 tackles, one sack and three TFL’s.

As a road underdog during Mora’s six-year tenure, UCLA owns a 7-7 spread record.

The ‘over’ is 6-2 overall for the Bruins, 4-0 in their road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 74.0 points per game.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Utes, 3-1 in their home games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 51.0 PPG.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two other games on Friday’s card: Memphis at Tulsa and Marshall at FAU. As of Thursday morning, the Tigers were favored by 12 points with a total of 78.5 or 79. Memphis (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road, while Tulsa (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS) is 2-2 both SU and ATS at home. Mike Norvell’s team has seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 overall, 2-1 in its three road assignments. The Tigers’ games have had average combined scores of 75.9 PPG. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Golden Hurricane, 3-1 in its home contests. Tulsa’s average combined scores have netted 70.6 PPG. The ‘under’ has appeared in three straight games and five of the last six for the Golden Hurricane.

-- Since taking its lone defeat by a 40-13 count at Central Florida in Week 5, Memphis has ripped off four consecutive wins while going 3-0-1 ATS. The Tigers are led by senior QB Riley Ferguson, who has thrown for 2,583 yards with a 23/7 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target is senior WR Anthony Miller, who has 61 receptions for 859 yards and 10 TDs. With former North Carolina star Ryan Switzer now a rookie in the NFL playing for the Dallas Cowboys, Memphis has the best special-teams player in the country. That would be sophomore Tony Pollard, who had two kick returns for TDs as a freshman in 2016. Pollard leads the nation in average yards per kick return (41.9) and KO returns for TDs with three. He also has 24 catches for 333 yards and two TDs, in addition to 19 carries for 126 rushing yards and one TD.

-- Memphis owns a 3-2 spread record as a road favorite during Norvell’s brief two-year tenure. The Tigers lead the AAC’s West Division with a 4-1 record to give them a one-half game lead over SMU, which will travel to the Liberty Bowl to face Memphis on Nov. 18. The Tigers will have 14 days of preparation for the Mustangs since they are off next week after facing Tulsa. SMU will be playing a second road game in as many weeks following a date at Navy next week.

-- As of Thursday morning, most spots had Lane Kiffin’s FAU squad listed as a 7.5-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Marshall, with the total at 66. The Thundering Herd were available on the money line for a +245 return (risk $100 to win $245). Marshall saw its five-game winning streak snapped last week in a 41-30 loss to FIU as a 14.5-point home favorite. Nevertheless, Doc Holliday’s squad is still 6-2 both SU and ATS. The Herd has thrived on the road with a 3-1 record both SU and ATS. They are 8-3-1 ATS as road underdogs since 2012, going 2-0 versus the number in a pair of such spots this season.

-- Marshall junior QB Chase Litton is enjoying another excellent season. He has thrown for 1,913 yards with a 16/5 TD-INT ratio. For his career, Litton has a 63/20 career TD-INT ratio. His favorite target this year has been junior WR Tyre Brady, a transfer from Miami. Brady has a team-best 47 receptions for 694 yards and seven TDs.

-- FAU is atop the C-USA East standings with a 4-0 record, but Marshall and FIU are only one game back with identical 3-1 records in league play. The Owls have won four in a row both SU and ATS with each victory coming by at least 14 points. They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings and the ‘over’ has hit in each of their last three games and four of their last five. FAU’s star is sophomore RB Devin Singletary, who has rushed for 1,053 yards and 18 TDs with a 6.6 YPC average.

-- Wake Forest will be without three starters at Notre Dame. RB Cade Carney, strong safety Jessie Bates and WR Greg Dortch are ‘out.’ Bates has a team-high 64 tackles and 5.5 TFL’s. Dortch, a redshirt freshman, was enjoying a tremendous year before going down with a season-ending abdominal injury. He had made 53 catches for 722 yards and nine TDs. Carney has rushed for 219 yards and one TD. The Demon Deacons, who are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as road underdogs, were catching 14 to the Fighting Irish as of Thursday morning.

-- Georgia Tech (6-0-1 ATS) is the nation’s only team that hasn’t yet been beaten for our purposes, while FSU (0-5-2) is the country’s lone squad that’s yet to cover a number.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 2
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NIU at TOL 06:00 PM
TOL -7.5
U 57.5 *****

BALL at EMU 07:00 PM
EMU -24.0 *****
U 47.5 *****

NAVY at TEM 08:00 PM
TEM +7.0*****
U 51.5 *****

IDHO at TROY 09:15 PM
TROY -18.5
O 50.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Woodside becomes Toledo's leading passer in win over NIU
November 2, 2017

TOLEDO, Ohio (AP) Logan Woodside threw for 361 yards to become Toledo's career passing leader, and the Rockets beat Northern Illinois 27-17 on Thursday night.

Woodside's 31-yard completion to Darryl Richards in the third quarter broke Bruce Gradkowski's record of 9,225 from 2002-05. Woodside sits at 9,288 yards.

Terry Swanson became the seventh Rocket to go over 3,000 yards rushing in a career. His third touchdown of the game extended Toledo's lead to 24-14 with 4:03 left in the third.

Toledo went on an 11-play drive to make it 27-17 and on NIU's next possession, Trevon Mathis made his second interception of the game with 7:01 remaining.

Swanson had 116 yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries for Toledo (8-1, 5-0 Mid-American Conference). Diontae Johnson made five catches for 131 yards in the first half, including an 89-yarder, and finished with 166 yards.

NIU (6-3, 4-1) started the second half with an 80-yard scoring drive, capped by Marcus Childers' 1-yard run for a 14-10 lead. But Toledo answered with Swanson's 13-yard touchdown run.

Childers was 23-of-43 passing with two interceptions for NIU.

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Eastern Michigan gets 1st MAC win, beats Ball State 56-14
November 2, 2017
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YPSILANTI, Mich. (AP) Brogan Roback threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns and Eastern Michigan beat Ball State 56-14 on Thursday night for its first Mid-American Conference victory of the season.

Eastern Michigan (3-6, 1-4) scored five touchdowns on its first six drives to take a 35-14 lead at halftime. Three of the scoring drives were five plays or less. Roback was 13 of 17 for 207 yards and three TDs, including a 74-yarder to Sergio Bailey II for the longest throw and catch of their careers.

Roback went over 8,000 career-passing yards in the first half to become the second player in program history to do so. Walter Church (1996-00) holds the school record with 9,142 yards.

Shaq Vann scored his second touchdown of the game on the first possession of the second half to extend EMU's lead to 42-14. He finished with 55 yards on seven carries, and Ian Eriksen had 114 yards rushing and one touchdown. Paul Fricano tied a program record with eight extra points.

Drew Plitt was 11-of-21 passing for 169 yards and two touchdowns for Ball State (2-7. 0-5), which lost its sixth straight.

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Nutile's 4 TDs lead Temple over Navy
November 2, 2017

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Temple coach Geoff Collins needed his deep, booming voice for his postgame press conference.

In the adjacent locker room, the music was loud and so was the chanting. And why not? Amid an uneven first season in charge, Collins' Owls put together their best performance of the season.

Frank Nutile threw for 289 yards and four touchdowns, and Temple's struggling offense awoke to beat struggling Navy 34-26 on Thursday night.

Nutile, making his second straight start in place of the injured Logan Marchi, completed 22 of 30 passes with one interception as Temple (4-5, 2-3 American Athletic Conference) snapped a two-game skid.

''We lost a heartbreaker two weeks ago and we had 10 days to really get together as a team and regroup,'' Nutile said. ''We have this mindset that it's a championship game very week. So it feels really good to win a game like this.''

Adonis Jennings had five catches for 127 yards, including touchdown catches of 34 and 40 yards. Keith Kirkwood and Jake Robinson also caught TDs for the Owls, who entered averaging just 20.9 points a game, 112th best in the FBS.

Enter Nutile, who praised his offensive line by saying ''I maybe got hit once all game'' as he picked apart Navy's secondary.

''We knew what a competitor he was. We knew how smart he was,'' Collins said of his junior QB. ''But just the command he had over the offense and his gamesmanship, I'm really proud of him.''

Navy quarterback Zach Abey, who sustained a concussion in a loss to Central Florida on Oct. 21, rushed for 87 yards and caught a touchdown pass on trick play before leaving with a shoulder injury. The Midshipmen (5-3, 3-3) rushed for 136 yards, well below their nation-best average of 376, in their third straight loss.

''We don't have any excuses,'' Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo said. ''We were rested. We had a lot of guys back. They beat the crap out of us.''

A trip to Lincoln Financial Field had always ended on a positive note for the Midshipmen, who entered 12-0 at the home of the Philadelphia Eagles - including a 10-0 mark against rival Army.

But much like a year ago when Temple cruised to a 34-10 win in the AAC title game, Navy's defense faltered.

Navy cornerback Tyris Wooten was suspended for violating team rules. Noruwa Obanor started in his place and the Owls pounced.

Jennings beat Elijah Merchant on his two scores and Robinson's first career catch came against Merchant. Khaylan Williams was beaten in the end zone on Kirkwood's 8-yard catch that made it 17-3 in the second quarter.

''On the back end, you'll probably blame one person,'' Navy linebacker D.J. Palmore said. ''But it's really all of us.''

Temple, playing a triple-option team for the second-straight game after losing in overtime at Army on Oct. 21, plugged running lanes with an eight-man front that left Navy frustrated.

Abey left after taking a hit on his interception early in the fourth. Garret Lewis entered with Temple trailing 34-13 and threw touchdown passes to Brandon Colon and Tyler Carmona.

''Not going in the right direction. We've got to figure things out quickly,'' Niumaalolo said. ''I coach by feelings, and just something has been amiss with us.''

THE TAKEAWAY

Navy: Niumatalolo was focusing on avoiding turnovers after eight giveaways in the previous two games. Abey's pick was the lone turnover, but the defense was overrun by one of the worst offensive teams in the country. Navy's 5-0 start is a distant memory.

Temple: Nutile certainly appeared to do enough to secure the starting job, and he'll need to keep it up as the Owls still must win two of their final three games to reach a bowl game for the third straight year.

TRICK PLAY

Navy's first touchdown came with razzle-dazzle. Darryl Bonner took a direct snap, pitched a reverse to fellow running back Malcolm Perry for a 5-yard pass to an open Abey.

OOPS

Navy's opening second-half drive started at its own 4 after the officials ruled Zack Fraade made a fair-catch signal.

QUICK KICKS

Bennett Moehring kicked a career-long 48-yard field goal in the first quarter for Navy's longest since Jon Teague's 45-yarder against Delaware in 2011.

UP NEXT

Navy hosts SMU on Nov. 11.

Temple plays at Cincinnati on Nov. 10.

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Chunn scores twice in his return, Troy holds off Idaho 24-21
November 2, 2017

TROY, Ala. (AP) Jordan Chunn returned after missing two games to rush for 113 yards and two touchdowns and Troy held off Idaho 24-21 on Thursday night.

Leading 17-14, Troy made a field goal with 4:53 remaining but the Trojans accepted a roughing the kicker penalty to make it fourth-and-1. Brandon Silvers picked up the first down on a sneak and Chunn scored from 7 yards out for a 10-point lead.

Idaho answered with an 81-yard drive, capped by Mason Petrino's 6-yard touchdown pass to David Ungerer with 23 seconds remaining. But Troy recovered the onside kick to seal it.

Chunn scored his 44th career rushing touchdown in the second quarter to tie it at 7 and Tyler Sumpter made a 40-yard field goal as time expired in the first half to give Troy (7-2, 4-1 Sun Belt) a 10-7 lead. In the third, Tevaris McCormick was left wide open along the right side for a 14-yard touchdown to make it 17-7.

Idaho's two third-quarter possessions ended on failed fourth-down attempts at Troy's 33 and 34. On its third drive of the second half, Kaden Elliss' 45-yard catch up the middle set up Alfonso Onunwor's second touchdown grab of the game to pull within 17-14.

Matt Linehan's play-action pass to Onunwor opened the scoring for Idaho (3-6, 2-3) late in the first quarter. Linehan was 23-of-34 passing for 282 yards and Onunwor made nine catches for 111 yards.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 10
November 2, 2017

2017 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Illinois 2-6 0-5 3-5 3-5
Indiana 3-5 0-5 2-5-1 4-4
Iowa 5-3 2-3 3-4-1 3-5
Maryland 4-4 2-3 4-4 7-1
Michigan 6-2 3-2 2-5-1 4-3-1
Michigan State 6-2 4-1 5-3 3-5
Minnesota 4-4 1-4 3-3-1 4-4
Nebraska 4-4 3-2 3-5 4-4
Northwestern 5-3 3-2 5-3 4-3-1
Ohio State 7-1 5-0 4-4 6-2
Penn State 7-1 4-1 6-1-1 3-5
Purdue 3-5 1-4 5-3 2-6
Rutgers 3-5 2-3 6-2 4-4
Wisconsin 8-0 5-0 4-4 5-3

Penn State (-7.5) at Michiagn State - (FOX, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Penn State continues their brutal three-week stretch with a game at Michigan State this Saturday. After beating Michigan at home and then losing a heart breaker at Ohio State last week, how much can this team have left in the tank? Despite last Saturday’s tight outcome with OSU winning 39-38, PSU was thoroughly outplayed on the stat sheet. The Buckeyes tallied 529 total yards on 6.8 YPP while the Nittany Lions were held to 283 total yards on 4.4 YPP. Turnovers (OSU was -2 for the game) and hidden yardage in the return game was what gave Penn State a chance in this one. Saquon Barkley returned the opening kick for a TD and the Buckeyes then fumbled 3 plays into their first possession. That gave PSU a 14-0 lead only a few minutes into the game. On top of that PSU had another kick return for 52 yards to the OSU 23 yard line which set up another TD. That’s 21 of their 38 points set up by special teams plays and fumbles which either were direct scores or gave them a very short field.

The OSU defense was basically able to completely shut down this potent offense. In fact, It was the first time since last September vs Michigan, a span of 17 games, that PSU was held under 300 yards of total offense. Minus his opening kickoff return, Barkley was barely a factor as the Buckeye defense held him to 44 yards rushing on 21 carries. With 36 of those 44 yards coming on one carry, Barkley was stonewalled to just 0.4 yards per carry on his other 20 carries. Defensively the Nits came in with the top scoring defense in the nation allowing just over 9 PPG. They weren’t able to slow down Ohio State who punted just 3 times the entire game and scored TD’s on each of their final 3 drives to solidify the win.

The Spartans came into last week’s game at Northwestern with a perfect 4-0 Big Ten record and aspirations of winning the ultra-tough Big Ten East. Despite the loss, MSU still controls their own destiny in that half of the conference as they play PSU this weekend and are at Ohio State in November. Win out and they would represent the East in the Big Ten Championship game. Last week’s 39-31 triple OT loss at Northwestern was a wild one. Under bettors had to be extremely frazzled as the total of 48.5 was never even close to being threatened in regulation. In fact, the score was Northwestern 17, MSU 10 with less than 30 seconds remaining in the game. Down 7 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining the Spartans went on a 12-play 88-yard scoring drive and got into the endzone with the game tying TD with 25 seconds left sending the game to OT tied at 17. The game saw 34 points scored in regulation and 36 points scored in the 3 OT’s.

he defense was very solid again for Michigan State keeping them in the game holding NW to just 17 points in regulation. The Sparty stop unit continues to impress as they rank 3rd in the Big Ten in total defense and 1st in rush defense allowing only 89 YPG. The problem continues to be on the other side of the ball where MSU was held to 18 points or fewer (in regulation) for the 5th time in their last 6 games. That forces the defense to be nearly perfect in order for them to pick up wins. With top notch opponents (PSU & OSU) on the horizon, the offense will have to start showing some life and they must start soon.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two met last season and PSU was an 11-point home favorite and rolled over MSU 45-12. This has been a higher scoring series with 6 of the last 7 going OVER the total. The winning team has scored at least 30 points in 6 of those 7 contests. The favorite has covered 6 straight in this series. However, MSU has been a great home underdog when getting 7 points or more which doesn’t happen all that often. In fact, since 1983, the Spartans have been a home dog of a TD or more 23 times and covered 18 of those games (78%).

Wisconsin (-13) at Indiana - (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Badgers faced off against the Big Ten’s worst last week and watching the game you’d never know Wisconsin was undefeated and Illinois had yet to win a Big Ten game. Wisconsin played their worst game of the season. They led 17-3 at half and held on for a 24-10 win. Their offense was so poor in the 2nd half it took them until half way through the 4th quarter to cross midfield. Against Illinois! Part of the problem was their #1 offensive weapon, freshman RB Jonathan Taylor, did not play in the 2nd half. After rushing for 73 yards in the first half, Taylor remained on the sidelines after halftime due to an ankle. We were told if he would have absolutely been needed, they could have played him but wanted to stay conservative with the freshman and just get out of dodge with a win so to speak. They are just not the same offense with Taylor on the bench as their back up RB’s are solid but definitely not game breakers. Struggling in the running game puts extra pressure on QB Hornibrook who just isn’t equipped to carry a team if needed. He’s not mobile enough to avoid the rush if the opposing defense doesn’t have to focus on Wisconsin’s running game. He was 10 of 19 for 135 yards on Saturday with an interception.

The defense is absolutely one of the best in the nation. They have held all but 2 opponents this year to less than 300 yards of total offense and one of those teams (Utah State) had just 304 total yards. That being said, we’ve felt this is a dangerous game for Wisconsin. Especially if they are not at full strength offensively which we will monitor as the week goes on.

Indiana was in a tough spot last week on the road at Maryland. It was their 2nd straight road game and were off a down to the wire, physical battle at Michigan State a week earlier which ended in a 17-9 loss. The Hoosiers were in a rare road favorite spot last week and lost to the Terps 42-39 despite outgaining Maryland by 140 yards. Indiana’s defense came into the game having played quite well on the season as they were holding opponents to just 4.7 YPP coming into the game. Despite giving up 42 points, the stat sheet said they played pretty well again on defense holding Maryland to 345 yards. However a closer look reveals that Maryland only ran 56 offensive plays for an average of 6.1 YPP so the IU defense probably played their worst game of the season last week. The Terps scored 42 points despite completing only 10 passes the entire game. The Hoosiers jumped out to a 14-0 lead and led 16-7 at the end of the first quarter. A blocked punt returned for a Maryland TD turned the momentum in the 2nd quarter and it was a back and forth game from that point on with the Terps leading 28-23 at half. IU pulled to within 42-39 with 8:00 remaining in the game but did nothing on their final two drives.

The offense finally looked a bit better (483 total yards) after struggling for most of the Big Ten season but we must remember it was against a Maryland defense that 62, 37, and 38 points in their three previous games. Indiana is back at home for the first time since mid October and ready for their 3rd conference game here at Memorial Stadium. They’ve been solid at home taking Michigan to OT (27-20 loss) and they actually led Ohio State late in the 3rd quarter here before imploding in the final 15 minutes. Their starting QB Peyton Ramsey was banged up last week so we’ll keep an eye on that situation.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The Badgers have covered 6 of the last 7 in this series (7-0 SU) with their average margin of victory a whopping 43 points! Only once over the last 7 meetings did Wisconsin not beat Indiana by at least 17 points. As much as IU is improved this season, they are 0-3-1 ATS as an underdog. Wisconsin is 18-7 ATS their last 25 road games and they are an impressive 17-2 SU their last 19 road tilts. UW is also 13-6 ATS their last 19 road games.

Illinois at Purdue (-14) - (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The Illini continue to sit at the bottom of the Big Ten with a winless record. However, this young team has actually shown some life the last few weeks. They definitely haven’t quit (as of yet) on head coach Lovie Smith. Two weeks ago they took Minnesota to the wire on the road in a 24-17 loss. Last week they played host to undefeated Wisconsin and weren’t embarrassed to say the least in their 24-10 loss. The offense obviously continues to struggle but the defense has been quite good the last few weeks. Last week they held the Badgers to just 103 yards and 7 points in the 2nd half. Wisconsin’s vaunted ground game was held to just 168 yards on less than 4 YPC. It was just the 2nd time this season the Badgers have been held below 200 yards rushing. Now we have to factor in UW’s key injury at RB as Jonathan Taylor didn’t play in the 2nd half but even with that it was a solid showing by the Illini defense.

Offensively this team just struggles to score. They have been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their 5 Big Ten games. They rank last in the league in scoring (17 PPG) and 13th in total offense (309 YPG). Freshman Cam Thomas got his first start of his career at QB but rotated again with Jeff George Jr. The two combined to complete just 9 of their 31 pass attempts with their only TD pass coming with 49 seconds remaining in the game.

There was a decent amount of buzz around the Purdue program coming into the Big Ten season after a 2-1 non-conference slate with their only loss coming by a TD vs Louisville. That buzz has faded a bit with the Boilers losing 4 of their first 5 conference games. The last two weeks were especially disappointing the Purdue was favored in each of those games vs Rutgers & Nebraska and lost both. Unlike previous editions, this year they are at least competitive in their Big Ten losses with 3 of 4 coming by 8 points or less. Last year all but one of their 7 conference losses came by double digits. Last week 25-24 loss at home to Nebraska was a tough one for Purdue to stomach. They led 24-12 with under 12:00 minutes to go in the game and the Huskers scored the final 2 TD’s including the game winner with 14 seconds remaining. They outrushed Nebraska 199 to 40 yet still lost the game.

The Purdue stats tell us they are the definition of a .500 type team as they average 583 YPG on 5.6 YPP while allowing 582 YPG on 5.6 YPP. Looking for their first bowl appearance since 2012, the Boilermakers must now win 3 of their final 4 games to make that a potential reality.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Last year was a hotly contested battle in Champaign as Purdue (+9) pulled off the upset 34-31 in OT. That was the 5th straight year the road team won this match up. Purdue has won 12 of the last 17 meetings covering 10 of those games. The Illini are just 4-21 SU their last 25 Big Ten road games. They have also burned through some serious money on the road going 9-18 ATS their last 27 away from home.

Ohio State (-17.5) at Iowa - (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Buckeyes are obviously coming off a huge 39-38 win over PSU last weekend and now might be in a letdown spot on the road this weekend. Hard to gauge that however as it may have the opposite affect and give OSU new life here as they’ve vaulted themselves back into College Playoff contention. The Buckeyes dominated PSU last Saturday despite the close 39-38 final score. They outgained the Nittany Lions by almost 2.5 yards per play (6.8 to 4.4)! Special teams blunders and turnovers kept the game much closer than it probably should have been. Much maligned QB JT Barrett played a fantastic game going 33 for 39 through the air for 328 yards and 4 TD’s. Ohio State entered the fourth quarter trailing 35-20 and Barrett proceeded to complete all 13 of his pass attempts and throw 3 TD’s in that all important final frame. Let’s not forget he nearly had 100 yards rushing on top of that! After the game his coach, Urban Meyer, called it one of the best performances he’s ever seen from the QB position.

Much is made of the OSU offense and rightly so, however this defense is rounding into one of the best units in the nation. Since their home loss to Oklahoma, the Ohio State defense has allowed an average of 248 YPG on just 3.9 YPP (6 games).

Iowa continues to struggle to score points. They came away with a home win last Saturday, but it took a very good defensive performance to do so. Their 17-10 win moved them to 2-3 in Big Ten play with their wins coming over Illinois and Minnesota. The Hawkeye defense continued to hold up their end of the bargain holding the Gophers to 281 total yards on 4.5 YPP. They held a decent Minnesota running game to just 3.3 YPC and Gopher QB Croft was only able to complete 9 passes the entire game. As for Iowa’s offense, that’s another story. They have only reached 20 or more points once in their five Big Ten games and that was against the worst team in the conference, Illinois.

Their game Saturday vs Minnesota was the first time this year that Iowa actually outgained their opponent (conference play only). Their running game is averaging only 3.6 YPC this year which is 3rd worst in the Big Ten ahead of only Northwestern and Indiana. That puts a big load on their fairly inexperience first year QB Nate Stanley to play very well in order to give his team a chance to win. They’ll definitely have to score more in this game to keep up with a potent OSU offense. We’ll see if they can make some adjustments on that side of the ball and get things rolling this Saturday.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – The last 3 meetings between these two Big Ten rivals have been tightly contested. This is the first meeting since 2013, however from 2011-2013 the Buckeyes topped Iowa by margins of 3, 3, and 10 points. Ohio State has won 13 of the last 14 meetings outright. OSU has also been a long term money maker in this series with a 16-7-1 ATS mark dating back to 1980. However, since 1981, Iowa has been a home dog of 14 or more only 11 times – they are 8-3 ATS in those games. The most recent was last year when they were 24 point home dogs to Michigan and upset the Wolverines 14-13.

Northwestern at Nebraska (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Cats pulled off a wild one last week at home vs previously unbeaten (in conference play) Michigan State. In a game that was dominated by the defense for much of regulation (17-17 at end of regulation) the two teams combined to put up 36 in 3 OT’s with Northwestern winning 39-31. The Wildcats were outgained by over 100 yards in the win and were helped by MSU not scoring a single point on 4 of their trips inside NW’s 40 yard line. It was the Cats second tight win in as many weeks after they topped Iowa in OT as well the previous Saturday. They continue to struggle with their running games as they put up just 64 yards on the ground vs MSU. They have only topped 160 yards rushing as a team just twice this entire season vs Maryland & Bowling Green who rank 68th and 125th respectively in rush defense. NW is averaging 3.5 YPC on the season which ranks ahead of only Indiana in the Big Ten.

The defense has looked very good at home holding all but Penn State to 17 points or less (in regulation). However on the road this NW stop unit has allowed 41, 33, and 21 points this season. After opening the season with a win over Nevada, this team hit rock bottom losing 3 of 4 with their season on the verge of tumbling into a hole they may not get out of. They have since been revitalized winning 3 straight to move to 3-2 in league play.

After starting the Big Ten season 2-0, the Huskers were teetering on losing their 3rd straight last week at Purdue trailing 24-12 in the 4th quarter. Nebraska scored a TD with 11:00 minutes to go in the game to cut the lead to 24-19. Then, in perhaps their best drive of the year, they took over at their own 30 yard line with 1:22 remaining in the game and went 70 yards in just over a minute to pick up the 25-24 win. QB Tanner Lee was the catalyst on that final drive completing 7 of his 8 pass attempts including a 14 yard TD with just 14 seconds remaining. Speaking of the much hyped Tanner Lee, what a transformation he has made after a horrific start to the season. He led the nation in interception through his first four games throwing a whopping 9 picks. Since that, Lee has thrown only one interception over his last four games. He’s also thrown for over 1,200 yards and 8 TD’s during that four game stretch. In Saturday’s win at Purdue, Lee threw for a career high 431 yards.

He’s needed to be on point as the Husker rushing attack has been far from potent as of late. In fact, they have put up only 194 yards on 69 carries their last 3 games combined for an average of 2.8 YPC. The Huskers have been outrushed by a combined 637 yards in those 3 games! With Northwestern’s pass defense ranking 13th in the Big Ten allowing 271 YPG, you can probably bet on Lee getting a lot of action again this week

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, the road team in this series has won 5 of the 6 meetings outright. Last year the Huskers won at Northwestern 24-13 putting up 556 yards to just 388 for the Cats. The Huskers have not covered a single game at home this year (0-5 ATS). They have lost those games by a combined 50 points to the number. This is the first time in their 8 meetings that Northwestern is favored over Nebraska.

Maryland (-2) at Rutgers - (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

After losing 3 straight, the Terps got back on track with a 42-39 win over Indiana. The Hoosiers actually dominated the stat sheet outgaining Maryland by 140 yards with 17 more first downs. That’s nothing new as Maryland has now been outgained in their last 4 games by a combined 1,019 yards or an average of 254 YPG. Maryland attempted a total of 16 passes in the game while IU put the ball in the air 62 times! In order for the Terrapins to be successful they have to run the ball efficiently.

Their QB, Max Bortenschlager, has started the last 5 games and is averaging 12 completions per game. They are solid in the run game averaging 173 YPG with RB Ty Johnson leading the way. He ranks 4th in the Big Ten in rushing averaging 82 YPG. They face off this week against a Rutgers defense that ranks 13th in the Big Ten and 84th nationally at stopping the run. You can bet Maryland will throw a heavy dose of the running game at them in this one. Maryland’s defense has been atrocious. They rank last in the Big Ten in scoring defense by a full TD per game allowing 37 PPG. They also are dead last in total defense by a full 50 YPG allowing 445 YPG. If you throw out their game vs FCS Towson, this defense has allowed at least 37 points in every game but one! Not good.

Rutgers had their two game winning streak snapped at Michigan last week losing 35-14. At least they were semi-competitive vs the Wolverines after getting rolled 78-0 vs Michigan a year earlier. We talked about Maryland not throwing the ball much, well Rutgers is in the same boat. You can bet there won’t be many footballs flying through the air in this one. Scarlet Knight QB Giovanni Rescigno has started the last 3 games and thrown for a combined total of just 281 yards in those 3 games.

This game will be won or lost on the ground. Rutgers predictably ran into a wall last week rushing for just 94 yards on 31 carries vs Michigan. That was against a defense that allows just 3.2 YPC on the season. This week they face a Maryland stop unit that allows more than a full YPC more than Michigan (4.3). In their previous two games, both wins, they rushed for a combined 404 yards vs Illinois and Purdue. Now putting points on the board? That’s another issue. If you throw out their defensive TD’s, this Rutgers team is averaging just 14 points in Big Ten play having topped 17 points only once (vs Illinois). They have been outgained in every conference game and they are last in the conference in YPP differential at -1.1 YPP (4.6 YPP on offense & 5.7 YPP on defense).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS – These two have had some crazy games as of late. Last year not so much as Maryland rolled over Rutgers 31-13. However in 2015 Maryland mounted a 21-point comeback to slip by Rutgers 46-41. In 2014 it was Rutgers who rallied from 25 points down to beat the Terps 41-38. This is the first time this season Maryland has been a road favorite as they’ve been a double digit dog in their previous 4 roadies. The Terps are just 7-12 ATS their last 19 as a road chalk. Rutgers has covered 6 of their 8 games this season but heading into this year the Knights had covered only 7 of their previous 23 games.

Minnesota at Michigan (-15.5) - (FOX, 7:30 p.m. ET)

The Gophs had solid momentum coming into PJ Fleck’s first Big Ten season. After sweeping the non-conference slate they have fallen flat with a 1-4 mark in the Big Ten. Their lone conference win was a struggle at home vs last place and winless (in league play) Illinois. Last week they traveled to Iowa City and lost a tight one to the Hawkeyes 17-10. Since inserting Demry Croft as the starting QB in place of Conor Rhoda, the Gophers passing game has been almost non-existent. Croft is an athletic QB who is always a threat to run but not a great passer to say the least. Last week he completed only 9 passes and the week before vs Illinois he connected on just 5. In his two starts Croft is 14 for 44 which is barely over a 30% completion rate. Minnesota had a few chances to put some more points on the board getting inside Iowa’s 15 yard line twice in the first half coming away with no points (interception & shut out on downs). They went scoreless through the first 3 quarters putting up all 10 of their points in the final quarter. Don’t look for a big improvement this week facing a Michigan defense that has allowed only one opponent this year to top 20 points (Penn State).

Michigan is now officially down to their 3rd string QB. This move was not due to an injury however. John O’Korn had been the starter the last few games after taking over for an injured Wilton Speight. O’Korn got the start again last weekend at home vs Rutgers. After 4 series in which he was 3 of 6 with no TD’s and an interception, Harbaugh made the move to redshirt freshman Brandon Peters. O’Korn officially started 4 games completed under 50% of his passes in those 4 starts with NO TD passes. Peters will start this Saturday and he gave this offense a shot in the arm last week. After inserting Peters the Michigan offense proceeded to score 4 TD’s on their next 5 possession with their only non-scoring drive ending in a missed FG. Peters didn’t have huge numbers completing 10 of his 14 passes for 124 yards but the offense obviously rallied around him and looked light years better. Now that was against Rutgers so we say the enthusiasm must be tempered a bit until we see more. After dominating Rutgers 78-0 last year, Michigan picked up a solid 35-14 win but missed the cover as a 24-point favorite.

The defense was again fantastic holding the Knights to 195 total yards. The Knights pushed inside Michigan’s 40-yard line only twice the entire game and both of those possessions turned into TD’s. They should add to their impressive stats this weekend against a Minnesota offense that has become one dimensional (run only) and is struggling to put points on the board.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS - The Wolverines are 0-4 ATS at home this season failing to cover by a combined 37 points. Minnesota is a money making 8-1-2 ATS their last 11 road games. This is the first time this season the Gophs have been a double digit road dog and they are 6-1 ATS their last 7 in that role. Dating back to 1980, the Wolverines have dominated this Big Ten series going 29-3 SU and 21-11 ATS.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals................6 - 4.........60.00%.....+8.00


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00

Totals...............................3 - 0............+15.00................2 - 3...................-6.50

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack
College football trends with Week 9 upon us…….
— East Carolina is 6-18-1 vs spread in its last 25 games.
— Fresno State covered eight of its last nine home games.
— Wake Forest is 12-3-1 in its last 16 games as an underdog.
— TCU is 1-7-1 in its last nine games as a home favorite.
— SMU is 4-11 in its last fifteen games as a home underdog.
— UMass is 6-0 vs spread when playing an SEC opponent.

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Friday’s 2nd List of 13: college football trends for this week

Additional college football trends to consider this week…….
13) Florida fired its coach this week, heads to Missouri with interim coach Randy Shannon in charge. Gators split their two visits to Columbia.

12) Alabama won its last five games with LSU, covering the last four. Tigers lost 30-16/38-17 in their last two visits to Tuscaloosa.

11) Favorites covered the last six Penn State-Michigan State games. Spartans won three of last four series games; teams split the last four played here.

10) Favorites are 12-1 vs spread in last 13 Oregon-Washington games.

9) Road team won last five Illinois-Purdue games; Illini won 48-14/20-16 in their last two visits to Ross-Ade Stadium.

8) San Diego State won its last four games with San Jose State, the last three by a combined score of 110-17.

7) Road teams won the last five Auburn-Texas A&M games; underdogs won last four SU. Auburn ran ball for 322 yards/game in last four meetings.

6) Home favorites won/covered last five Louisiana-South Alabama games; ULL lost 30-8/32-25 in their last two visits to Mobile.

5) Underdogs covered five of last six Hawai’i-UNLV games; Rainbow Warriors lost their last four visits to Las Vegas, by 20-2-1-20 points.

4) Favorites are 5-1-1 vs spread in last seven South Carolina-Georgia games; Gamecocks lost 41-30/52-20 in their last two games between the hedges.

3) Western Kentucky/Vanderbilt split couple of games last two years; games were decided by total of 3 points, with road team winning both of them.

2) Wisconsin won its last nine games with Indiana, last four by an average score of 64-11. Badgers covered three of last four visits to Indiana

1) Air Force is 18-2 in its last 20 games with Army; they’re 8-2-1 vs spread in last 11 series games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, November 3

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FRIDAY'S NCAAF GAME OF THE DAY: UCLA AT UTAH
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UCLA Bruins at Utah Utes (-6.5, 59)

Once-promising seasons have dissolved into all-out bowl-eligibility fights for UCLA and Utah with both entering November with .500 records. The final four-game stretch run for each begins Friday night as the Utes host the Bruins in Salt Lake City.

Utah has dropped four straight since a 4-0 start, with the last two defeats being blowout losses to Arizona State (30-10) and Oregon (41-20). As a result, the Utes find themselves alone in the Pac-12 South Division basement at 1-4, and coach Kyle Whittingham says his team has reached a true crossroads. “We’re 4-4 with four to go, and we can go one of two directions,” Whittingham said Monday at his weekly news conference. “We can either continue to take our lumps and not play as well as we need to, or we can get back on track and get back to playing the way we know we’re capable of playing.” The sentiment is the same at UCLA as the Bruins have lost four of six since a 2-0 start, including double-digit conference losses to Stanford (58-34), Arizona (47-30) and, most recently, Washington (44-23).

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, FS1.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 5-point home favorites but that line has been bet up to -6.5. The total hit betting boards at 61 and has been dropped two full points to the current number of 59.

INJURY REPORT:

UCLA - DL R. Wade (Questionable, Undisclosed), QB J. Rosen (Questionable, Hand), TE A. Roberts (Questionable, Ankle), DL M. Dickerson (Questionable, Collarbone), RB J. Starks (Questionable, Ankle), LB B. Brandt (Questionable, Concussion), LB J. Woods (Out For Season, Shoulder), TE C. Wilson (Out For Season, Foot), OL K. Lacy (Out For Season, Hip).

Utah - OL J. Agasiva (Questionable, Foot), LB C. Drews (Out For Season, Undisclosed), DB T. Smith (Out For Season, Ankle), RB A. Shyne (Out Indefinitely, Leg).

ABOUT UCLA (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 6-2 O/U): The Bruins would appear to be largely out of luck unless they can find some sort of fix for the nation’s worst run defense, which has been trampled for an average of 307.1 yards per game, 6.05 yards per carry and 23 touchdowns. In UCLA’s three Pac-12 defeats, the damage was even worse with Stanford, Arizona and Washington averaging 398.3 ground yards and totaling 14 rushing TDs. UCLA counters with one of the nation’s top quarterbacks in Josh Rosen, who has a 145.8 rating and leads the conference with 339.1 passing yards per game, and senior wide receiver Darren Andrews, who is pacing the Pac-12 with nine TD grabs and ranks third with 88.4 yards per outing.

ABOUT UTAH (4-4 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U): The Utes hope to slow Rosen with the Pac-12’s fourth-ranked pass defense (199.1 yards), which has allowed only nine TD passes while totaling 10 interceptions. Dual-threat sophomore quarterback Tyler Huntley has played the last two games after sitting out two contests with a shoulder injury, and rebounded from a four-interception outing against Arizona State with 339 total yards of offense, two TDs and no picks in the loss to Oregon. Linebacker Sunia Tauteoli ranks ninth in the Pac-12 with 8.5 tackles for loss, but the Utes are trying to shore up their own run defense after getting gashed for a season-high 347 yards by running back Royce Freeman and Oregon.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
* Utes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Bruins last 4 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Utes last 6 home games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home Favorites from Utah are picking up 57 percent of the action on the spread and Over is getting 51 percent of the totals selections.


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NCAAF

Friday, November 3


The Top 5 college football ATS bets:

1. G-Tech 6-0-1
2. Iowa State 7-1
3. ND 7-1
4. Ark State 6-1
T5. PSU, Fresno State, Texas 6-1-1


The Bottom 5 college football ATS bets:

1. BYU 1-8
2. Western Kentucky 1-7
3. Florida State 0-5-2
T4. Ole Miss, Hawaii 1-6-1

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MRSH at FAU 06:00 PM
MRSH +6.5 *****
O 64.0 *****

MEM at TLSA 08:00 PM
TLSA +14.5 *****
O 79.5

UCLA at UTAH 09:30 PM
UTAH -7.0 *****
U 55.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

SEC Report - Week 10
November 3, 2017

Florida ended the torturous Jim McElwain Era this past Sunday following a 42-7 loss to Georgia in Jacksonville. Randy Shannon, the former player, assistant and head coach at the University of Miami, was named as the interim head coach. On Thursday, he named Malik Zaire as the starting quarterback for Saturday’s game at Missouri.

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Missouri (3-5 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) installed as a three-point favorite with a total of 61.5. The Gators were +135 on the money line (risk $100 to win $135).

Barry Odom’s team has won back-to-back games and has covered the spread in four consecutive outings, including last week’s 52-12 win at UConn as a 13.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Drew Lock completed 31-of-37 throws for 377 yards and five touchdowns without an interception. Johnathon Johnson hauled in five receptions for 128 yards and one TD, while J’Mon Moore had eight catches for 96 yards and two TDs.

Lock is on fire over the last month, throwing 18 TD passes compared to just two interceptions in a four-game stretch. For the season, Lock has thrown for 2,567 yards with a 28/8 TD-INT ratio. Moore is his favorite target, bringing down 39 receptions for 676 yards and seven TDs. Johnson has 32 catches for 535 yards and four TDs.

Sophomore RB Damarea Crockett was sidelined indefinitely with a shoulder injury two weeks ago. Crockett is still the team’s leading rusher with 481 yards, two TDs and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average. Senior RB Ish Witter will carry the bulk of the load on the ground vs. UF. He has rushed for 421 yards and three TDs with a 5.6 YPC average.

Missouri is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in five home games this year. As home favorites during Odom’s two-year tenure, the Tigers are 4-5 ATS, 1-3 versus the number in four such spots this season.

Florida (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) has played only one true road game to date, winning 28-27 at Kentucky as a three-point favorite. Since beating Vanderbilt by a 38-24 count to improve to 3-1, the Gators have lost three in a row vs. LSU (17-16), vs. Texas A&M (19-17) and vs. UGA.

In relief of an ineffective Feleipe Franks last week, Zaire led UF on its only scoring drive that was capped by a one-yard TD run from Mark Thompson. The Gators avoided cream-cheese treatment to extend the nation’s longest streak of not getting shutout that goes back to a loss at Auburn in the 1980s.

Zaire rushed for 30 yards on two attempts. He completed 3-of-6 passes for 36 yards. It was the first time the grad transfer from Notre Dame had touched the field since a 33-17 season-opening loss to Michigan.

In addition to the nine players who were suspended from the team in August, Florida has lost five key players to season-ending injuries. That includes last year’s leading tackler (Marcell Harris), this season’s leading rusher (Malik Davis), the team’s best pass rusher (Jordan Sherit), the most experienced QB with only one career loss as a starter (Luke Del Rio) and starting LB Kylan Johnson. Sherit went down two games ago, while Johnson and Davis sustained their injuries vs. UGA last week. Davis had rushed for 526 yards and two TDs with a 6.7 YPC average as a true freshman.

Starting senior safety Nick Washington, UF’s third-leading tackler, has missed two straight games and is listed as ‘questionable’ at Missouri.

The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for Missouri, 3-2 in its home games. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 71.2 points per game. Meanwhile, the ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for the Gators, 1-0 in their lone road assignment. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 47.3 PPG.

This is the highest total in a UF game since 2010 when Urban Meyer was still coaching the Gators, who have seen their last three games produce combined scores of only 33, 36 and 49 points.

Kickoff on ESPN2 is scheduled for noon Eastern.

Auburn (6-2 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) will look to keep its SEC West hopes alive when it travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M in a noon Eastern kick on ESPN. As of Friday afternoon, most books had the Tigers listed as 15-point road favorites with a total of 51.5. The Aggies were available for a sweet +500 return if they win outright (risk $100 to win $500).

Auburn has had two weeks to prepare for A&M after throttling Arkansas 52-20 as a 17-point road favorite two weeks ago. Gus Malzahn’s team has taken its only losses at Clemson (14-6) and at LSU (27-23). Therefore, AU controls its own destiny to get to Atlanta for the first weekend of December.

Auburn is 7-4 ATS in 11 games as a road favorite during Malzahn’s five-year tenure. The Tigers are 2-1 in three such spots this season, covering at Arkansas and in a 51-14 win at Missouri. They picked up their most impressive win at home vs. Mississippi State by a 49-10 count back on Sept. 30.

Junior RB Kerryon Johnson has rushed for 723 yards and 14 TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. His 14 rushing scores are tied for the third-most in the country. Johnson has produced those numbers despite missing two games in September. He had 11 TD runs, including five at Missouri, in a three-game stretch.

Auburn RB Kam Pettway, a first-team All-SEC selection in 2016, is ‘out’ indefinitely with a shoulder injury, so Johnson will get a ton of carries at Kyle Field. Pettway has battled injuries all season and has only rushed for 305 yards and six TDs with a 4.0 YPC average.

Auburn QB Jarrett Stidham, a transfer from Baylor who was a five-star recruit coming out of high school, has completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,728 yards with an 8/3 TD-INT ratio. Ryan Davis has been Stidham’s favorite target, hauling in 41 catches for 381 yards and three TDs.

Auburn is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense (15.6 PPG), 13th in total defense, 17th in pass defense and 25th versus the run. This unit might be without starting senior safety Tray Matthews for a second straight game. Matthews is listed as ‘questionable’ with a hamstring injury.

Since Texas A&M (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) joined the SEC in 2012, the road team has been triumphant in all five head-to-head meetings between these schools. The Aggies won a 29-16 decision on The Plains last year.

Kevin Sumlin’s job is in serious jeopardy after A&M lost 35-14 to Mississippi State as a 3.5-point home underdog last week. The Aggies generated only 285 yards of total offense and committed three turnovers. Freshman QB Kellen Mond was benched after connecting on only 8-of-26 passes for 56 yards with two interceptions. Nick Starkel, a redshirt freshman who had not played since getting injured in the opener at UCLA, completed 8-of-15 throws for 133 yards with one TD and one interception.

As of Friday afternoon, it was unclear whether or not Starkel or Mond would get the starting nod vs. Auburn. A&M has limped to a 2-5 spread record in seven games as a home underdog during Sumlin’s six-year tenure. The Aggies are 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS at home this year.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Aggies, 4-1 in their five home games. They’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive contests.

The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for Auburn, 3-1 in its road assignments. The Tigers have seen their games average combined scores of 51.9 PPG.

In another noon Eastern kick on ESPNU, Vanderbilt will take on Western Kentucky in Nashville. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Commodores marked as 10.5-point favorites with a total of 53.5. The Hilltoppers were +320 on the money line (risk $100 to win $320).

Since a 3-0 start, Vanderbilt (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) has lost five in a row while going 0-4-1 ATS. The first four defeats came by margins of 14 points or more. The ‘Dores lost a 34-27 decision at South Carolina as seven-point underdogs last week.

Trailing 34-20 with 4:50 remaining in Columbia, junior QB Kyle Shurmur found C.J. Duncan for a four-yard scoring strike to help Vandy garner a backdoor push. Shurmur completed 27-of-49 passes for 333 yards and four TDs with one interception. Kalija Lipscomb had seven receptions for 128 yards and one TD, while Duncan snared eight balls for 80 yards and two TDs.

Shurmur has enjoyed an outstanding campaign, throwing 18 TD passes compared to merely three interceptions. Senior RB Ralph Webb, the school’s all-time leading rusher, hasn’t had much room to operate all season long. He’s run for 439 yards and five TDs, averaging only 3.8 YPC. Trent Sherfield has a team-best 27 receptions for 458 yards and two TDs, while Lipscomb has 23 catches for 397 yards and six TDs.

Vandy is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home this season. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in a trio of road outings. During Derek Mason’s four-year tenure, the ‘Dores are 3-7 ATS as home favorites.

These teams have played a pair of nail-biters the last two years. In 2015, Western Kentucky won 14-12 at Vandy as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Commodores answered with a 31-30 triumph in overtime as eight-point road underdogs last season.

The ‘over’ has hit in five consecutive Vandy games since the ‘under’ cashed in its first three contests. Totals have been a wash for the ‘Dores at home (2-2), while all of their games have averaged combined scores of 53.8 PPG. The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run for the Hilltoppers, who are 5-3 SU but an abysmal 1-7 ATS.

In the 3:30 p.m. Eastern time slot on CBS, top-ranked Georgia (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) will face South Carolina between the hedges. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Bulldogs installed as 23.5-point favorites with a total of 45. The Gamecocks were +1375 on the money line at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $1,375).

UGA ended a three-game losing streak to Florida with last week’s 42-7 clubbing as a 12.5-point ‘chalk.’ Sony Michel ripped off TD runs of 74 and 45 yards in an 137-yard effort on just six carries. Nick Chubb added 77 rushing yards and one TD on 13 attempts.

For the season, Chubb has 765 rushing yards and nine TDs with a 6.4 YPC average. Michel has run for 629 yards and eight TDs, averaging 8.5 YPC. True freshman Jake Fromm took over for sophomore QB Jacob Eason when he suffered a sprained knee in the first quarter of the opener vs. Appalachian State.

Although Eason has been healthy and available for the last four games, he’s only received snaps at garbage time. Fromm has connected on 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,263 yards with a 13/4 TD-INT ratio. He has also run for 87 yards and three TDs. Terry Godwin is his go-to target, hauling in 16 receptions for 369 yards and five TDs.

With the exception of a 20-19 win at Notre Dame in Week 2, UGA has won all of its games by 21 points or more. The Bulldogs trounced Mississippi State by a 31-3 count in Athens and in a two-week span, they won at Tennessee and at Vandy by a combined score of 96-14.

Georgia is ranked third in the country in scoring defense (11.9 PPG), third in total defense, third against the pass and sixth versus the run. Missouri is the only team that has eclipsed the 19-point mark vs. UGA.

South Carolina (6-2 SU, 4-2-2 ATS) is 4-0-1 ATS with four outright victories in five games as an underdog this season. This is its richest ‘dog spot of the season. As previously noted, USC beat Vandy last week thanks to a 121-yard rushing effort from sophomore RB A.J. Turner.

Jake Bentley completed 19-of-29 passes for 174 yards and one TD without an interception. The sophomore signal caller also rushed for 47 yards and a pair of TDs on six attempts vs. Vandy. Bentley has six TD passes without an interception in the last four games. He has thrown for 1,759 yards with a 13/4 TD-INT ratio.

Since WR and special-teams ace Deebo Samuel went down with a season-ending injury in Week 3, sophomore WR Bryan Edwards and junior TE Hayden Hurst have emerged as Bentley’s favorite targets. Edwards has a team-high 35 receptions for 435 yards and one TD, while Hurst has 23 catches for 328 yards and two TDs.

USC’s leading rusher in 2016 was Rico Dowdle, but he sustained a season-ending injury three weeks ago in a 15-9 win at Tennessee. RB A.J. Turner had run for only 60 yards in the first six games, but he has produced 86 yards (and one TD on 14 carries) and 121 yards (and one TD on 15 totes) on the ground in the last two games.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for the Gamecocks, 3-0 in their true road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 46.5 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for UGA, 3-1 in its home games. However, the ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive contests for the Bulldogs, who have seen their games average combined scores of 50.0 PPG.

LSU and Alabama will renew their bitter rivalry Saturday night at Bryant-Denny Stadium for an 8:00 p.m. Eastern kickoff on CBS. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had the Crimson Tide favored by 21.5 points with a total of 48.5. The Tigers, who have lost six in a row to Alabama since winning 9-6 in Tuscaloosa in a 2011 overtime affair, were +950 on the money line (risk $100 to win $950).

Alabama (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) is No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Nick Saban’s team has posted a 5-0 SU record and a 2-3 ATS mark at home this season. The Tide has won seven of its eight games by margins of 17 points or more. They are off a 45-7 win vs. Tennessee as 36.5-point home ‘chalk.’

Alabama completely dominated the Volunteers with a 604-108 edge in total offense. Jalen Hurts completed 13-of-21 passes for 198 yards and one TD without an interception. Damien Harris rushed for a team-best 72 yards and one TD on 13 attempts, while Bo Scarbrough found paydirt with a pair of TD scampers.

For the season, Hurts has connected on 62.9 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Hurts can beat you with his legs as well, rushing for 572 yards and six TDs with a 6.8 YPC average. Harris has run for a team-high 697 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 8.6 YPC. Scarbrough has 377 rushing yards, six TDs and a 4.7 YPC average.

Alabama junior WR Calvin Ridley is one of the nation’s best, producing 41 receptions for 523 yards and two TDs.

Alabama is ranked No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense (9.8 PPG), No. 1 in rushing defense, No. 2 in total defense and No. 10 versus the pass. As for the Tide’s offense, it is ranked fifth in scoring with a 43.0 PPG average.

LSU (6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) looked like its season, the first under Ed Orgeron, was about to get flushed down the toilet following an unfathomable 24-21 loss to Troy as a 20.5-point home favorite. Since then, however, LSU has ripped off three straight wins at Florida (17-16), vs. Auburn (27-23) and at Ole Miss (40-24).

Derrius Guice spent a good chunk of September injured, but he’s healthy now. The junior RB shredded the Rebels for 276 rushing yards and one TD on 22 carries. Danny Etling completed 9-of-13 throws for 200 yards and two TDs without an interception in Oxford. Senior RB Darrel Williams had 103 rushing yard at Ole Miss on 22 carries. In addition, he caught four balls for 105 yards.

Etling has completed 60.0 percent of his passes for 1,452 yards with a 9/1 TD-INT ratio. Guice has rushed for 711 yards and six TDs with a 5.7 YPC average, while Williams has 476 rushing yards, five TDs and a 4.7 YPC average. Senior WR D.J. Chark has 22 catches for 535 yards.

Totals have been an overall wash for the Tide (4-4), while the ‘over’ has hit at a 3-2 clip in its home outings. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 52.8 PPG.

Totals have been an overall wash for LSU (4-4), but the ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three road assignments.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Tennessee (3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS) is a 6.5-point home favorite vs. Southern Miss for a 7:30 p.m. Eastern kick at Neyland Stadium on the SEC Network. The Golden Eagles had won three in a row and five of their last six both SU and ATS until losing 30-12 to UAB as 11.5-point home favorites last week. UT dropped a 29-26 decision at Kentucky last week, but it did take the cash as a four-point road underdog.

-- Mississippi State will play host to UMass at noon Eastern on the SEC Network. The Bulldogs were favored by 28 for most of the week until UMass QB Andrew Ford was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ (neck/head) on Thursday. Once that news hit, the line instantly moved from 28 to 32. The Minutemen have won back-to-back games, including a 30-27 home win over Appalachian St. in overtime last week. They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games and haven’t been beaten by more than 10 points all year long.

-- Dan Mullen’s team went to Foxboro last season and beat UMass by a 47-35 count. However, Mississippi State failed to cover the spread as a 22.5-point road favorite. Since losing back-to-back games at Georgia (31-3) and at Auburn (49-10), the Bulldogs have responded with three straight wins both SU and ATS. They’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit favorites this season.

-- Kentucky (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) will play host to Ole Miss at Kroger Field on the SEC Network at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. The Wildcats have failed to cover the number in four consecutive contests. They were listed as 3.5-point favorites as of late Friday afternoon, with the total at 63.5. UK has won four of its five home games, but it has limped to a 1-4 ATS record. Ole Miss (3-5 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) is winless in three road games with a 0-2-1 ATS ledger. The Rebels blew a 24-point lead in last week’s 38-37 home loss to Arkansas. Ole Miss juco transfer QB Jordan Ta’amu played well in his first career start at the FBS level vs. the Razorbacks. Ta’amu hit 20-of-30 pass attempts for 368 yards with one interception.

-- The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight games for the Rebels to improve to 7-1 overall.

-- Arkansas (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) is listed as a 23.5-point home favorite vs. Coastal Carolina, which comes to Fayetteville with a 1-7 SU record and a 2-6 ATS mark.

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Inside the Stats - Week 10
November 1, 2017

Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.

Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS

Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:

College Football: Arkansas, Florida International, Kansas, Maryland, and Northwestern

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers

PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST

It’s that time of the season where we make a concentrated effort to back college football teams as underdogs that have excelled ITS, having won all - or all but one - of their games in total yardage, and to fade those favorites that that have lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats.

Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.

Play On ITS teams: Alabama 8-0, Central Florida 7-0, Georgia 8-0, LSU 7-1, Michigan 7-1, Michigan State 7-1, Ohio State 7-1, Oklahoma 8-0, Oklahoma State 8-0, South Florida 8-0, Texas San Antonio 6-1, Toledo 7-1, Virginia Tech 7-1, Washington 7-1, Washington State 8-1 and Wisconsin 8-0.

Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-7-1, East Carolina 0-7-1, Kent State 1-8, Kentucky 1-7, Rutgers 1-7, UL Lafayette 1-6, and UTEP 1-7.

WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY

From this week’s MIDWEEK ALERT football newsletter it’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.

The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Five, as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.

Positive Game Five Out Net Stats: Arkansas State +100

Negative Game Five Out Net Stats: Arkansas -119, Ball State -119, Clemson -116, Duke -140, Georgia Tech -188, Kansas State -133, Maryland -142, Utah -106

You notice only one team in the Positive Game Five Out Net Stats. That’s largely because once teams hit conference play after the opening month of the season the competition steps us. While it’s admirable that Arkansas State has stepped up, it’s largely due to its rugged non-conference slate as opposed to softer competition in the Sun Belt conference.

LEAKING OIL

Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.

We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.

College Football: Kentucky 0-5

NFL: Buffalo Bills 0-5

UH OH

Not only does Georgia Tech appear on our ‘What Have You Done For Me Lately’ listing above, the Yellow Jackets are also tied for DEAD LAST in overall Red Zone Defense this season.

Their opponent, Virginia, needs one more win to become bowl eligible this season. The Cavs will be at Louisville and at Miami (FL), before closing out the campaign against Virginia Tech after Saturday’s contest with Georgia Tech.

STAT OF THE WEEK

Among the 12 teams to be ranked in the initial Top 4 rankings since the College Football Playoff system started in 2014, only 5 of them actually went on to make the playoffs. In addition, none of the top ranked teams in the initial rankings has gone on to win the title, those being Alabama, Clemson and Mississippi State.

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Week 10 preview: Bedlam at its best; Heisman RB rebounds
November 3, 2017

The first College Football Playoff rankings are out and seven games matching ranked teams this weekend have the potential to make the second rankings look much different.

The seven ranked vs. ranked games match a record for one week in the history of the AP poll. It's happened five times previously, the last in 2015. Also, unlike many Saturdays, the best games aren't stacked up in one time slot. Usually, the television networks stuff the prime-time window with most of the day's best games.

Last week, the 3:30 ET window was overloaded and had fans wearing out their remotes and firing up multiple screens.

On Saturday, a fan can watch games matching ranked teams from noon (No. 3 Ohio State at Iowa) until whenever (hash)Pac12AfterDark (No. 23 Arizona at No. 17 Southern California) ends.

Things to know about week 10 of the college football season.

BEST GAME

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State

Two of the top five offenses. Two Heisman Trophy contender quarterbacks. Two teams with playoff hopes that can't afford another loss. When it comes to Bedlam, it doesn't get much better than this one.

Baker Mayfield and the Sooners have won the last two meetings against Mason Rudolph and the Cowboys, though Rudolph hardly played in the 2015 meeting. In the last five meetings, both teams have scored at least 20 points and the winner has reached 33 points in all those games.

By the numbers, the Cowboys have the advantage on the defensive side, ranking 19th in the country in yards allowed per play (4.79). The Sooners defense has been a problem, ranking 71st in the nation (5.63 yards per play).

HEISMAN WATCH

Mayfield and Rudolph both have a chance to make Heisman statements, but two running backs trying to bounce back are the pick here.

Penn State's Saquon Barkley was held to 44 yards on 21 carries last week in a loss to Ohio State, though he did have a 97-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and another long scoring run. The seventh-ranked Nittany Lions try to rebound from their first loss of the season against No. 24 Michigan State and its stingy run defense, allowing 2.83 yards per rush.

Later, No. 20 Stanford hopes to have Bryce Love back in action against No. 25 Washington State. The Cardinal played without the nation's leading rusher last week against Oregon State, and barely escaped with a last-second victory.

NUMBERS TO KNOW

6 - No. 1 Alabama's winning streak against LSU, the longest in the series since the Crimson Tide won 11 in a row from 1971-81.

13 - Seasons in which Miami has been a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference without reaching the league championship game. The ninth-ranked Hurricanes can clinch their first division title by beating No. 13 Virginia Tech at home and having Georgia Tech lose at Virginia. Even if the Yellow Jackets don't help, the Hurricanes will be in great shape with a victory to earn a trip to Charlotte.

36 - Number of plays of at least 30 yards for Arizona, the most in FBS. That includes four runs of at least 70 yards from quarterback Khalil Tate.

75 - J.T. Barrett's completion percentage during Ohio State's six-game winning streak.

UNDER THE RADAR

Can Florida and Florida State get bowl eligible? Both need November winning streaks to get there, and that includes a game against each other.

Any chance the Gators (3-4) and Seminoles (2-5) have to salvage their disappointing seasons starts Saturday with games that before the season would have appeared to be gimmes. Florida plays its first game under interim coach Randy Shannon at Missouri. Florida State hosts Syracuse.

Both Florida and Florida State had games cancelled by the hurricanes in September and, for now, will play only 11 games.

HOT SEAT WATCH

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M

The Aggies are in danger of another second-half swoon after losing at home to Mississippi State last week to drop to 5-3. Now, No. 14 Auburn comes to College Station. The road team has won each meeting between these teams since A&M joined the SEC in 2012.

Sumlin has not been able to get over the eight-win hump in his last three seasons and Aggies fans want more. To do so, Texas A&M needs to upset the Tigers.

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CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/03/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals................8 - 8.........50.00%.....-4.00


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTALS

11/03/2017......................2 - 1............+4.50..................0 - 2..................-11.00
11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00

Totals...............................5 - 1............+19.50................2 - 5...................-17.50

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The Dozen: Bedlam Plus
November 4, 2017

Here are the games that should most command your attention on the first Saturday in November and everything you need to know to handicap these matchups:

1. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: After this year's Bedlam series result is in, there will be one very satisfied 8-1 team still alive as a national championship contender and one very disappointed program that will have wasted a run behind one of the top QBs in school history. Mix in a revenge factor for the Cowboys, who have lost 14 of 15 when both teams come in ranked and have lost their chance to win a Big 12 title in consecutive seasons, and it's easy to see why taking care of business at home in Stillwater this time around means everything to little brother OSU.

QB Mason Rudolph has produced games of 40 or more points in all but two of his team's eight outings, topping 50 or more in four of them counting last week's win at West Virginia, so concerns over his shoulder bothering him has dissipated some despite a lack of throws down the field. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield actually has the tougher matchup given what both secondaries have shown thus far, but he's gotten a lot of help from RBs Abdul Adams, Trey Sermon and Rodney Anderson that could take some pressure off both sides of the ball by chewing up clock and maintaining possession. That could also give under 76 a fighting chance if the Cowboys can't break off the explosive plays they're counting on here.

2. Clemson at N.C. State: The Tigers followed up their tough loss at Syracuse by handling Georgia Tech again, putting together another stifling defensive effort against the triple option. We'll see how they handle the Wolfpack's more conventional offense as they hit the road for the first time since disaster hit in upstate New York. Kelly Bryant returned from his ankle injury looking spry, but not 100 percent. Presumably, he'll be better this week, which means the Tigers can rely on a playmaker who was routinely making big plays with his arm in addition to his feet, addressing legitimate concerns that he'd be too much of a running back in replacing Watson.

The Wolfpack missed a 33-yard field goal that would've sent the customers home depressed last season, ultimately losing in overtime. They then saw their season fall apart, recovering barely enough to salvage a bowl game and a winning record. Coming off their first loss of the season at Notre Dame, NC State can keep its ACC title aspirations alive by winning here and taking control of the Atlantic Division. Notre Dame took advantage of the Wolfpack by dominating up front and racing up the rushing yards, so the expectation is that Clemson will attempt to follow suit. The Tigers have won 12 of 13 games in this series after last year's close call.

3. Arizona at USC: We'll very likely see the winner here in the Pac-12 Championship representing the South Division, putting Sam Darnold back in the spotlight after a strong performance at Arizona State last week to put the Trojans in the driver's seat since they get to play this key game at home.

This puts USC's banged-up defense up against the four-time reigning Pac-12 Player of the Week, Khalil Tate, who averages over 13 yards per carry, has really picked up his passing and has led the 'Cats to nearly 49 points per game over the last four. He'll be facing the most athletic defense he's seen to date, making this a great test for a potential Heisman candidate that's come out of nowhere. USC has won four straight in the series and Rich Rodriguez hasn't won at the Coliseum with Arizona, but if Tate outplays Darnold, this Cinderella story would continue with an ironic twist.

4. Virginia Tech at Miami (FL): The Hokies came up short against Clemson at home in late September, but a little more than a month later, are basically a pick'em on the road down at Hard Rock Stadium. That tells you how seriously oddsmakers are taking the Hurricanes' chances of running the table this season, even though they keep pulling off wins in games where they've flirted with disaster.

QB Malik Rosier is going to play despite suffering an injury to his throwing shoulder and will be closely monitored here since he often struggles with accuracy as it is. Evan Shireffs, a 6-foot-5 redshirt sophomore who lacks much experience, would get the call if Rosier is too injured to play, which makes for a potentially dubious situation given Virginia Tech's defense. The Hokies can still have a special season since running the table will give them the Coastal Division over the 'Canes. QB Josh Jackson has broken Michael Vick's freshman record for passing yards but will be making just his third road start.

5. Ohio State at Iowa: Urban Meyer's team has to get up for another challenge after last week's emotional comeback win over Penn State, so this is potentionally a trouble spot. Iowa took out top-five Michigan last year and came a last-second score from adding Penn State to Kinnick Stadium's victims earlier in the season since three straight AP Top-5 teams had left Iowa City with losses since '08. Remarkably, Meyer has never coached there since the Buckeyes haven't been in town since 2010. Jim Tressel's 12-1 team survived there 20-17 as a 3-point favorite.

If they can withstand the emotional element, the Buckeyes have the same clear advantages against a young Hawkeyes offensive line that they enjoyed last week in wearing down the Nittany Lions. Ohio State's front seven is loaded with pros and QB J.T. Barrett has clearly saved his best for last. Running backs J.K. Dobbins, Mike Weber and H-back K.J. Hill are all formidable and look to be in great form, but WR Parris Campbell has been ruled out.

6. LSU at Alabama: The Crimson Tide are ranked No. 2 for the first time this season and Nick Saban knows his former employer always packs a little extra venom for him, so there's no letdown coming in Tuscaloosa. 'Bama respects LSU's talent and past success, so even though there appears to be a slight disparity here, Saban has pulled his typical routine of ranting at the media to publicly rail against meaningless rankings and caution against overconfidence.

It's all on his elite defense continuing a trend of shutting down the Tigers, who have enjoyed elite talent like Odell Beckham, Jr. and Leonard Fournette among many others and still managed just 10.5 points during a six-game losing streak at the hands of the Tide. After starting slowly by failing to cover at home against Fresno State and Colorado State, Alabama has won its three conference home dates by a combined margin of 152-19. It owns a 17-game home winning streak. LSU's Derrius Guice hopes to carry over the form he displayed running for 276 yards at Ole Miss and the Tigers do come off a bye after sandwich a season-saving conquest of Auburn with road wins over Florida and Ole Miss. We'll see whether they can compete this time around enough to even hang within the 21.5-point spread.

7. Penn State at Michigan State: We referenced a potential emotional letdown for Ohio State, and it was the team that euphorically claimed last week's big game. The Nittany Lions have to deal with a hangover effect and get to do it on the road. James Franklin's team wasted a golden opportunity to remain undefeated and may have cost Saquon Barkley his shot at the Heisman due to an inability to block up front.

It won't be any picnic, since 40-degree weather and showers are expected to play a role in what will likely be a physical football game won on the ground and potentially, by the elusiveness and ingenuity of both quarterbacks. MSU's Brian Lewerke is capable of making plays with his legs and has really generated results to elevate a once-anemic attack. Since Sparty visit the Buckeyes in Columbus next week, they control their destiny in the East Division. PSU's Trace McSorley had a great game against Michigan State's defense last season and will need to lift his team up on the road by creating momentum with some chunk plays that can help a sputtering group lock back in.

8. Stanford at Washington State: This one doesn't decide the Pac-12 North, but will certainly play a huge role. The Cardinal have seen RB Bryce Love emerge as a legitimate Heisman candidate due to his breathtaking Barry Sanders-like runs and it's telling that he still leads the country in rushing yards (1,387) despite missing essentially the last game-and-a-half after a nasty ankle injury. He's expected to play, which eases the pressure on redshirt freshman K.J. Costello, who will start on the road for the first time and has looked good in playing a few games this season.

He'll be dueling a polar opposite of sorts in Cougs' QB Luke Falk, the nation's active career leader in passing yards (13,469), touchdowns (112) and yards per game (336.7). He'll break Sean Mannion's Pac-12 record for passing yards at some point in this game barring injury and will be honored and cheered heavily since this will be his final home game. Washington State is 6-0 in Pullman this season, improving to 15-4 over the last three seasons. Despite this and because of the uncertainty of Love's ankle, WSU opened as a 2.5-point favorite but is now a pick'em.

9. Iowa State at West Virginia: Although it's overshadowed by Bedlam in Big 12 circles, this matchup ends up making the list over Texas-TCU as the league's second-best offering due to the curiosity the Cyclones have become. Derailing a Horned Frogs team they seemed to intimidate in the red zone has kept a team that looked like they had a realistic shot to crash the national semifinals.

Bowl eligible for the first time since 2012, Matt Campbell's team will look to continue the ride in Morgantown, where West Virginia is hoping to avoid consecutive home losses after dropping a 50-39 shootout to Oklahoma State. Will Grier continues to be a prolific passer, but turned over too much in last week's upset bid, making today's game entirely about his ability to solve an Iowa State defense that looked so great last week in shutting down Kenny Hill. There have been at least 74 points scored in six of eight games involving the Mountaineers, while the under has prevailed in five of Iowa State's last six. Dana Holgorsen beat Campbell in Ames last season 49-19 in last year's regular-season finale, so it will be fun to see how he'll fare now against a far better team.

10. Auburn at Texas A&M: After playing 'Bama tougher than anyone has this season, the Ags barely survived at Florida and got blown out at home by three touchdowns against Mississippi State. This provides head coach Kevin Sumlin's final opportunity to impress the 12th Man and win over those in the fan base still on the fence about him. Auburn recovered from blowing a 20-0 halftime lead at LSU by hanging a 52-20 rout at brutal Arkansas and has been on hiatus since. With a showdown against Georgia set for next week, the Tigers need to look good here in what should be a worth tune-up.

The road team has won all five meetings since the Aggies joined the conference, so that trend would certainly bode well for the Tigers, who will also have a determined QB returning to his home state in Baylor transfer Jarrett Stidham, who originally had some interest in the school in College Station. Perhaps because of the presence of highly touted recruit Kellen Mond, interest in him waned, so the narrative is clear that Stidham can earn himself a little payback against the beleaguered Sumlin, who is sticking with Mond despite his poor play over the past few weeks. The speedy athlete hasn't been able to consistently make throws, which could hurt A&M's chances against a stout Tigers defense.

11. South Carolina at Georgia: In a season where most of the SEC has been down, the Gamecocks have actually surprised and have been terrific against the spread, coming in 5-2-1 as they look to shock the 'Dawgs and make their run as the nation's top-ranked team short-lived. A 24-point underdog, South Carolina winning outright would net you +1400 on the money line at 5 Dimes, but has little chance of happening since it lost top playmaker Deebo Samuel early this season, limiting the likelihood of thriving against the best defense and rushing attack it has seen all season. Still, Will Muschamp has his team bowl eligible a second consecutive year and up for playing spoiler for these Bulldogs and rival Clemson in the regular season finale.

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has to be concerned his team will look past a pretty good team given road games ahead at Auburn and Georgia Tech later this month. The Auburn test is next, so the temptation to pull starters early also makes the spread employed here a little high, but the 42-7 rout at Florida continued a UGA run that has seen it defeat its five SEC conquests by a 212-45 margin, covering spreads against all but Mizzou.

12. Wisconsin at Indiana: The Badgers are catching no respect despite their perfect record since they haven't beaten anyone of significance, so this has become a popular upset pick. The lone unbeaten team currently left in the Big Ten may also be without their most dynamic offensive threat, dynamic true freshman RB Jonathan Taylor, who is questionable with a leg injury and isn't expected to be 100 percent if he goes. They're playing a second straight road game for the first time and will face an engaged crowd that will pack the house despite likely showers since college basketball isn't quite back in Bloomington.

The Hoosiers have yet to win a game in the Big Ten, but they've been competitive against Ohio State for a half and both Michigan schools for four quarters. A tough loss at Maryland last week puts Indiana in a position where it is forced to win out to reach a bowl, so it should be engaged to save its season. There are offensive line issues to be concerned with, including that of LT Coy Cronk. Starting QB Peyton Ramsey left with a knee issue last week, which likely means senior Richard Lagow could start. Many believe he should've been the starter all along.

Others: Texas at TCU, Wake Forest at Notre Dame, Oregon at Washington, Minnesota at Michigan, Syracuse at Florida State, Colorado State at Wyoming, UCF at SMU, Kansas State at Texas Tech, Georgia Tech at Virginia, Northwestern at Nebraska, Army at Air Force, Colorado at Arizona State.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

More college football trends with Week 9 upon us…….

— UCF covered four of last five games as a road favorite.

— Kansas State is 20-6 in its last 26 games as a road underdog.

— Virginia is 20-12 in its last 32 games as an underdog.

— Texas coach Herman covered his last eight games as an underdog.

— Maryland is 5-11 vs spread in its last sixteen games.

— East Carolina is 2-8-1 in its last 11 games as a road underdog.


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NCAAF

Saturday, November 4

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SATURDAY'S NCAAF GAME OF THE DAY: OKLAHOMA AT OKLAHOMA STATE
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OSU quarterback Mason Rudolph leads the nation in passing yards and has 22 touchdown passes against just five interceptions. He's seeking his second career win over the Sooners.

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2, 76)

For the first time in 13 years, the bitter Bedlam rivalry between in-state rivals Oklahoma and Oklahoma State isn't the Big 12 season-ender for the two schools. But Saturday afternoon's contest in Stillwater, which will be the site of ESPN's College GameDay broadcast, has probably as much riding on it as any in recent history.

Both teams enter as part of a four-way tie for first place in the Big 12 and are also in the running for a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff, which had the Sooners rated No. 5 in its first weekly poll released on Tuesday while the Cowboys, who still have a road date next week at No. 15 Iowa State, come in at No. 11.

Then there's quarterbacks Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma and Mason Rudolph of Oklahoma State, both of whom rank at or near the top of most key NCAA passing stats and could take a big step forward in the Heisman Trophy race with impressive games while also improving their NFL Draft stock.

The loser not only will not have state bragging rights but will also be hard-pressed to rebound and earn one of the two coveted spots in this year's Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 2 in Arlington, Tex.

"The timing is different, but the stakes are about as high as they can be," Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said.

TV:4 p.m. ET, FS1.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 3-point home chalk but the line has been bet down to 2.5. The total opened at some locations at 75.5 but just about all books are dealing 76 as we head into the weekend.

INJURY REPORT:

Oklahoma - WR A.D. Miller (Questionable, Undisclosed), DT Matthew Romar (Questionable, Undisclosed), DT Neville Gallimore (Questionable, Undisclosed).

Oklahoma State - QB Mason Rudolph (Probable, Shoulder), CD Adrian Baker (Out for season, Dismissed)

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U): It all starts with the cocky and confident Mayfield who finished third in Heisman voting in 2016 and ranks eighth in the NCAA in passing with 2,628 yards while also leading all Power 5 conference quarterbacks in passing efficiency (195.6), averaging an NCAA-best 11.1 yards per completion. "I love the big stage," Mayfield, who has completed 171-of-236 passes (72.5 percent) for 23 touchdowns and just three interceptions, told reporters this week. "I love a good atmosphere. I think it's a good opportunity to show the country what we're made of." The key for the Sooners, however, could be the play of a defense that has allowed 35 or more points in three of its last five games and ranks 100th nationally in pass efficiency defense (141.4).

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U): Rudolph leads the nation in passing yards (2,866) and passing yards per game (358.3) while throwing 22 touchdown passes to five interceptions. He has a a potential first round NFL pick to throw to in senior wide receiver James Washington who is second in the FBS with an average of 125.6 receiving yards per game while sophomore running back Justice Hill leads the Big 12 in rushing with 836 yards and has scored eight touchdowns. The defense, which has allowed just six passing touchdowns while picking off a Big 12-leading 12 passes, is led by safeties Ramon Richards, who had the game-winning interception in overtime in a 13-10 win at Texas, and Tre Flowers, who has 242 career tackles and is second in the Big 12 with nine passes defended.

TRENDS:

*The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Oklahoma State.
*The Sooners are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. winning teams.
*OU is 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall
*The overs is 14-6 in the Cowboys last 20 conference games.

CONSENSUS: More than 55 percent of contest players are backing the Sooners to cover as 2-point road underdogs at Oklahoma State.