The Bum's NFL Preseason Picks-Results-Etc. !

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Sunday, August 27, 2017
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Tennessee Titans
4:30 PM Cincinnati Bengals Washington Redskins
8:00 PM San Francisco 49ers Minnesota Vikings

WEEK 4

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Time (ET) Away Home
7:00 PM Cincinnati Bengals Indianapolis Colts
7:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Atlanta Falcons
7:00 PM Detroit Lions Buffalo Bills
7:00 PM Los Angeles Rams Green Bay Packers
7:00 PM Philadelphia Eagles New York Jets
7:30 PM Pittsburgh Steelers Carolina Panthers
7:30 PM New York Giants New England Patriots
7:30 PM Washington Redskins Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8:00 PM Miami Dolphins Minnesota Vikings
8:00 PM Cleveland Browns Chicago Bears
8:00 PM Dallas Cowboys Houston Texans
8:00 PM Baltimore Ravens New Orleans Saints
8:30 PM Tennessee Titans Kansas City Chiefs
9:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Denver Broncos
10:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Oakland Raiders
10:00 PM Los Angeles Chargers San Francisco 49ers

Updated Sun Aug 27 2:00 AM EDT

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Sunday's Best Bet
August 25, 2017

Sunday Night Football Best Bet
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings (NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Bookmaker.eu Odds: San Francisco (+4) vs. Minnesota (-4); Total set at 42

Both San Francisco and Minnesota are coming off defeats a week ago during Week 2 of the preseason, and with this game being the last time many of the starters for both sides see the field before the games count, getting in positive work will be a must. Minnesota is looking to rebound after a tough year in 2016 hurt them from the get-go, while San Francisco has a new regime in the management suites and would love to see some giant steps forward taken this year en route to having a winning 49ers franchise again.

It's not going to be an easy road for either club given some of the powerhouses they've got to deal with in their respective divisions (Green Bay, Seattle), but this week's dress rehearsal game could end up going a long way into showing bettors what to expect from Minnesota and San Francisco this season.

Oddly enough, this game has one of the bigger point spreads for “dress rehearsal” week and it suggests that the 49ers may be an organization still stuck as cellar dwellers in the NFL this year. Only the Jets – long believed to be tanking 2017 away – and a Andrew Luck-less Colts team are catching more points then the 49ers this week with starters across the league getting the bulk of playing time. What that says about a 49ers team with a young regime trying to turn the page in 2017 remains to be seen, but chances are I won't be discussing too many best bet articles with the 49ers as a heavily-backed public side.

A QB rotation of Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, and C.J. Beathard won't inspire much faith from anyone, but given how their season could end up going, all three of these guys could see the field in the regular season, meaning that tonight's game is rather big for all three involved.

Minnesota doesn't exactly have their own deep pool of QB's with Teddy Bridgewater still hurt, but they are excited to show off new toy in RB Dalvin Cook. Minnesota is a team that's built to win with their defense, and having a young guy like Cook who can hopefully carry the load from them like Adrian Peterson did in his younger days, should help Minnesota become a playoff team once again.

But that doesn't necessarily mean laying the four points here is the best option, as Minnesota – a team decimated by preseason injuries a year ago – does not want the same thing to happen to them in 2017. That means as much as bettors want to believe Week 3 of the preseason is the dress rehearsal spot, I doubt the Vikings will follow that idea to it's core and could make it another early night for plenty of their starters.

That's why, I believe the value lies with the San Francisco 49ers in this spot as they've got multiple QB's vying for a position, among other position battles they've got going on, and with basically all the support going Minnesota's way here, I've got no problem being in the minority.

VegasInsider.com's betting percentages show about 90% of the bets coming Minnesota's way here, yet the line really hasn't moved. All week this game has been lined at either -4 with juice or -4.5 for Minnesota, and you'd think that with the amount of tickets being written that way, that we would have seen a -5 at some point. But that has yet to be the case as of this writing, and thus, I've got no problem grabbing the points with San Francisco.

See, many bettors prefer to treat Week 3 of the preseason as an actual regular season game. After watching two weeks of suspect, and very bad football, patience starts to wear thin for bettors wanting to feast on the real thing. Everyone knows Week 3 is dress rehearsal time, and for whatever reason, those two words equate to “regular season game” for many bettors.

Look up and down the board this week and you'll see all the prohibitive preseason favorites for Super Bowl 52 getting plenty of love. Teams like New England (80%+), Seattle (80%+), and Pittsburgh (80%+), are getting so much support this week it makes my head hurt.

Minnesota may not be in the same class as some of those teams, but they are being treated like they are here because of it being the San Francisco 49ers on the other side of the field. While I do believe Minnesota will be the team to finish with the better regular season record of the two, none of that applies to this SNF game, and with the Vikings having to deal with the injuries they did at the end of last year's preseason, they can ill-afford to do the same thing this year. Therefore, we aren't going to see much from them or their starters on the whole this week outside of the first quarter, and I'm grabbing the points with the road dog because of it.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: San Francisco +4

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NFL notebook: Tests confirm torn ACL for Patriots WR Edelman
August 26, 2017

New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman sustained a torn ACL in his right knee in Friday's preseason win over the Detroit Lions and will miss the 2017 season.

The Patriots feared the worst after the game and the full extent of the injury was determined Saturday after an MRI exam. The team did not disclose a specific diagnosis but later confirmed the injury to his right knee and that he will miss the entire season. The extent of the injury was first reported Saturday by the MMQB's Albert Breer.

Edelman went down with 13:12 left in the first quarter with a noncontact injury on the team's first drive. He finished the game with three catches and 52 yards.

Edelman has been Tom Brady's most frequent target over the last four years. Edelman has made 356 receptions for 3,826 yards and 20 touchdowns in that span.

--The Patriots released defensive lineman Kony Ealy, who was acquired in a trade with the Carolina Panthers in March.

The 25-year-old Ealy played three NFL seasons with the Panthers after entering the NFL as a second-round draft pick (60th overall) by the Panthers in 2014.

Ealy has played in 47 regular-season games, with 15 starts, and has 76 tackles, 14 sacks, one interception, five passes defensed, six forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Last year, Ealy played in 16 games, with six starts, and finished with 32 total tackles, five sacks, three passes defensed and two forced fumbles.

--Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Marrone named Blake Bortles the team's starting quarterback for the season opener against the Houston Texans.

The announcement came two days after the Jaguars started Chad Henne in their third preseason game and a little more than a week after Marrone opened up the job for competition. The Jaguars returned to practice Saturday afternoon and close the preseason Thursday night on the road against the Atlanta Falcons before preparing for the Sept. 10 opener in Houston.

Marrone indicated the competition between Bortles and Henne would continue into the preseason finale after neither quarterback did enough to win the job in the Jaguars' 24-23 loss to the Carolina Panthers at EverBank Field on Thursday night.

--Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware will undergo an MRI exam to determine the extent of a right knee injury sustained in Friday night's preseason game against the Seattle Seahawks.

A source told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Ware suffered a PCL injury and the MRI should determine how much time he will miss. Ware was carted off the field in the first quarter of the 26-13 preseason loss to the Seahawks.

The timetable for Ware's return could be as little as two weeks and as many as eight, according to ESPN.

The 5-foot-10, 229-pound Ware led the Chiefs with 921 rushing yards on 214 carries last season. He scored five touchdowns -- three rushing and two receiving.

--The Tennessee Titans still haven't completely decided on whether running back DeMarco Murray will make his preseason debut Sunday against the Chicago Bears.

Murray was expected to be a go in each of the past two weeks from a nagging hamstring injury. He practiced last week in joint work with the Carolina Panthers but was held out last week after coach Mike Mularkey said he wanted to see a "bigger burst" from Murray in his running.

Murray returned to practice, getting good reviews this week in practice from Mularkey and appeared to be a go Sunday against the Bears. But Mularkey indicated after Friday's practice that he needed to watch the practice film before green-lighting his star running back.

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2017 NFC East Preview
August 27, 2017

Following is a preview of the NFC East, with teams as usual presented in order of predicted finish. Last year's straight-up, spread, and "Over/Under" results are included.

It was a quiet recovery last season by the[B] New York Giants (2016 SU 11-6, ATS 8-7-2, [/BO/U 5-12), who made it back to the playoffs for the first time since the 2011 Super Bowl season. The feckless national sports media, however, with its ongoing fascination with everything about the Cowboys, mostly ignored the bounce-back of the G-Men orchestrated by new HC Ben McAdoo, who was promoted after being Tom Coughlin’s o.c. the previous two years. The change on the sidelines from the autocratic Coughlin seemed to invigorate the team, which after a succession of close losses the previous year was able to win eight games decided by 7 points or fewer, while losing just three of those close-margin nailbiters. All after a succession of gnawing defeats helped prompt Coughlin’s resignation following the preceding 2015. (Coughlin, by the way, has resurfaced as head of football operation with the Jags, another of the teams he once coached.)

New York’s near $200 million spending spree in the 2016 offseason helped fortify a defense that resurrected a year ago, but it was McAdoo’s offense that would eventually, and surprisingly, prove something of a stumbling block, especially in a maddening Wild Card round playoff loss vs. the Packers, which marked the sixth straight game in which New York scored fewer than 20 points. Though QB Eli Manning had adapted well to McAdoo’s version of the West Coast offense imported from Green Bay a few years before, and again posted better numbers than earlier in his career, he was not as productive as he had been the previous two years when throwing 30 and 35 TD passes, respectively; last year, just 26, while his “pick” total also rose slightly to 16. The late-season frustrations with the offense would prompt much of the offseason activity (more on that in a moment).

Part of the problem last year might have been the lack of a credible infantry diversion, as the G-Men ranked a lowly 29th in league rushing. By the end of last season, UCLA rookie Paul Perkins had assumed feature-back roles; in the offseason, GM Jerry Reese cut former starter Rashad Jennings, turning over the carries to Perkins, former Patriot Shane Vereen (limited to 33 totes last year due to a season-ending triceps injury), and rookie Wayne Gallman, an intriguing fourth-round draft pick from Clemson.

But unlike a year ago, when most of Reese’s offseason additions were on the stop unit, the G-Men spent money and draft picks in the late winter and spring upgrading their offense. In particular, WR Brandon Marshall made a convenient move from the Jets, while blocking TE Rhett Ellison was added from the Vikings and OT D.J. Fluker from the Chargers. Moreover, first-round pick TE Evan Engram from Ole Miss gives the G-Men the sort of field-stretching element in the middle of the pitch that they haven’t had since the days of Jeremy Shockey.

Marshall’s addition, however, looms as a potential homerun signing, as his presence likely eases some of the attention opposing defenses pay to the wondrous Odell Beckham, Jr., whose per catch average dropped to just 13.5 yards a season ago. If Marshall, who suffered with the Jets downturn and nabbed just 3 TDs a year ago but is just two seasons removed from catching 14 TD passes in 2015, still has some petrol in his tank, Eli (and Beckham) should greatly benefit, though the Big Apple tabloids are also likely to be salivating with the prospect of a pair of diva wideouts on the field at the same time. Slot receiver Sterling Shepard could also be part of the windfall after catching 65 passes as a rookie in 2016.

Still, for the attack to work better in 2017 will require more consistency from the line, which was erratic at best a year ago. McAdoo and Reese believe the pieces are in place, but can’t wait much longer for LT Ereck Flowers, the ninth overall pick in 2015 who has already twice led the league in penalties and also among the leaders in total backfield disruptions since arriving from the Miami Hurricanes.

The question looming over the entire organization, however, is if Eli still has another big season left in him. Manning, who has hit a couple of very high notes in his NFL career, is now 36, and Reese made a move to the future in the draft by nabbing ex-Texas Tech and Cal QB Davis Webb in the third round. Webb, however, remains a longer-term prospect; if Eli goes down this season, another ex-Jet, Geno Smith, makes the short move from the other locker room at MetLife and appears to offer an upgrade behind Manning after the G-Men employed Ryan Nassib (now battling to hang on with the Saints) lately in the same role. Reese and McAdoo, however, apparently believe Eli still has a couple of years left in his arm, so while the clock is ticking on the Manning era, the braintrust is counting on the title window remaining open for at least this season and next.

The improvement in the stop unit a year ago, when it ascended to a respectable tenth in total defense, was perhaps more important in the return of the G-Men to the postseason. As well as a rehabilitation of sorts for coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, still remembered fondly in the tri-state from his work with the 2007 Super Bowl champs, but who also entered last season on the hot seat. A year later, his status has been solidified, helped by a couple of last year’s FA additions along line, DE Olivier Vernon and DT Damon Harrison, who spearheaded a rise to third in NFL rush defense stats. Other imports such as MLB Keenan Robinson and CB Janoris Jenkins also made heavy contributions to the improved efforts.

Best of all for Spagnuolo, nine starters return on the stop end. On top of the aforementioned Harrison and Robinson, safety in-the-box Landon Collins and OLB Jonathan Casillias also finished with 80-plus tackles (Collins leading them all with 125). Collins and CB Jenkins were both Pro Bowlers last season and return as anchors in the secondary, but they will continue to benefit from a juiced-up pass rush that should again rumble with DE Jason Pierre-Paul signed to a big-money, $62 million contract extension.

The G-Men are also confident they can overtake Dallas in the NFC East, partly because they beat the Cowboys in both meetings a season ago, and they catch Dallas minus Ezekiel Elliott in the Sunday night opener on September 10. The addition of WR Marshall means Eli could have targets as good as any in the NFC, and New York’s defense is certainly playoff, if not title, worthy. It would be no surprise to us if the G-Men emerge from the crowded NFC East pack this fall. And let’s not forget how Eli has been able to wave a magic wand in the postseason in the past.

Note that the improved defensive work also resulted in a 12-4 “under” mark in the regular season a year ago, though if the offense is upgraded as we suspect, a repeat of that “under” trend might be difficult.

Repeating in the NFC East has been difficult, to say the least, for almost a generation; the last team to do so was the Eagles in 2003-04, during the heights of the Andy Reid-Donovan McNabb partnership. Thus, recent history would suggest that the Dallas Cowboys (2016 SU 13-3; ATS 10-6-1; O/U 7-10) are going to have a tough time defending their division crown.

And that was even before events of August 11, when prized 2nd-year EB Ezekiel Elliott was handed a 6-game suspension by the NFL for his part in domestic abuse allegations stemming from an incident over a year ago. The DA in Columbus declined to prosecute Elliott, but in the post-Ray Rice NFL, Roger Goodell and the league police were not going to be as lenient. It hasn’t helped Elliott that various other acts of irresponsibility have seemed to follow him since leaving the cocoon of Ohio State; sources say those inside of the Dallas organization want Elliott to begin displaying some maturity ASAP. Suddenly, the Cowboys are going to be without one of their 2016 lightning bolts for almost half of the season, while Fantasy Football owners around the country fret about their draft boards that have to be re-arranged with Elliott on ice until almost Halloween. (Elliott’s scheduled return game is October 29 at Washington.)

The outcome of the league’s investigation into Elliott had hung like a low-cloud layer over the franchise the entire offseason, but there were already indicators that last season’s unexpected success had gotten into the heads of too many Cowboys. All the way up to a recent whirlwind trip to the Pro Football Hall of Fame; squeezing past an under-strength Arizona in the preseason opener in Canton, partying with Justin Timberlake and then celebrating the HOF enshrinement of owner Jerry Jones had Dallas running more than a bit slow when the team returned to practice in Oxnard, drawing the wrath of HC Jason Garrett.

It does not take a soothsayer to note that the dynamics are a bit different this summer with the Cowboys, who entered last season with few distractions other than the status of Tony Romo, whose bad back proved a bit of good fortune as it allowed Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott to move into the pilot’s chair and record one of the best rookie seasons for a QB in NFL history, and winning league Rookie of the Year honors (and prompting a new QB era in Dallas, confirmed when Romo retired to the CBS telecast booth in the offseason). Along with the electric contributions of Elliott, who led NFL rushers with 1631 yards, and general good health (with the exception of Romo) elsewhere on the roster, everything fell neatly into place in Big D as the Cowboys surged to the NFC East crown with a 13-3 mark.

But it has been a bit of a rollercoaster the past few years at AT&T Stadium; recall that the Cowboys endured a face-plant in an injury-plagued 2015, falling to 4-12 on the heels of a playoff appearance in 2014. While we hardy expect Dallas to sink as it did two years ago, some regression from last year’s breakthrough might be expected,

Not surprisingly, the “Dak-Zeke” offense generates the most headlines, but there are important questions regarding a “D” that does not yet appear to be title-caliber. Though improved last year for vet d.c. Rod Marinelli, there was significant outflow from the stop unit in free agency. Jones thus went almost straight defense in the draft, which was no surprise after ’ol Jer openly dreamed of adding a “war daddy”-type defensive force in the offseason. His rumored target was Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett, but unable to work a deal with the Browns for the top pick, instead settled on a consolation prize, Michigan DE Taco Charlton, late in the first round. While Charlton might eventually become that “war daddy” to which Jones referred, he’s probably nothing more than a rotation piece this fall, even with DE David Irving, a revelation late last season, opening the season on a four-game suspension.

Marinelli, however, has been able to benefit from a healthy OLB Sean Lee, hampered by injuries earlier in his career but able to record 273 tackles over the past two seasons, and helping key a platoon that led the NFL in rush defense. Another plus would be getting a healthy LB Jaylon Smith, the Notre Dame product who fell to the second round in the 2016 draft due to a horrific knee injury suffered in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Ezekiel Elliott’s Ohio State. Smith spent last season on the mend, and the rehab continues, though it would be a bonus if Marinelli is able to get anything from Smith this fall.

Four key contributors in the secondary (CBs Brandon Carr & Morris Claiborne, and safeties Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox) were among the offseason FA exodus, leaving a “D” that ranked 26th vs. the pass even more vulnerable. Jones used three of his first five draft picks on DBs, and it's time for 2015 first-round pick SS Byron Jones to step up for a unit that only recorded nine interceptions last season. Nolan Carroll, lured from the Eagles in free agency, will have to hold down one of the CB spots.

Remember, Dallas was also a bit helpless on the stop end against Aaron Rodgers in the Divisional Round, when the Packers moved almost at will, including a last-second drive to a winning field goal. Right now it is hard to suggest much improvement on that end of the field.

Meanwhile, for the first six weeks of the season, at least, Prescott (23 TDP vs. only 4 picks in his maiden voyage) will be minus the safety blanket that the explosive Elliott provided. Though Dak’s leadership skills are off of the charts, he was able to benefit from Zeke’s presence a year ago. Until Elliott returns, not sure former 1000-yard rushers Darren McFadden or Alfred Morris, or maybe ex-Bronco Ronnie Hillman, offer anything close to the Ezekiel diversion. The punishing Dallas OL, a centerpiece of the “Jones renaissance” in recent years, also must replace a couple of key cogs, G Ron Leary (FA to Denver) and T Doug Free (retired).

Thus, for much of the first half of the season, the pressure will be on Prescott to develop upon the rapport generated with possession receiver Cole Beasley (75 catches LY) and improve the downfield accuracy to big-play target Dez Bryant. Entering his 15th year, TE Jason Witten remains a reliable underneath target. If all else fails, prolific PK Dan Bailey (27-32 FGs in 2016) remains to salvage points from any drives that bog down in enemy territory.

After way overshooting last fall, we suspect the Cowboys undershoot this time around. The schedule also looms as more difficult this season, with several expected top-caliber defenses on the slate, as well as the difficult AFC West as inter-conference foes.

Some cracks in the foundation might have started to form late last season, when Dallas began to have problems covering numbers (the Cowboys dropped 6 of their last 7 vs. the line after covering nine in a row). Over-hyped expectations can distort Dallas pointspreads again until the betting public gets burned a few more times, though it remains to be seen how no Elliott impacts numbers (Las Vegas books responded to news of Zeke’s suspension by temporarily taking down Dallas season-win totals and the Week One spread vs. the Giants).

It’s Wentz-ational! (Use that with permission!) Expect to hear that catchphrase and others in coming years as QB Carson Wentz comes of age and perhaps harkens a return to the glory days for the Philadelphia Eagles (2016 SU 7-9; ATS 8-8; O/U 8-7-1). Though let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves...after all, the Birds haven’t won a title in 57 years (1960), when legendary QB Norm Van Brocklin enjoyed a glorious last hurrah before retiring and becoming HC of the expansion Minnesota Vikings the following year.

Philly fans, however, have tired of hearing about 1960, much as they tired talking about the Phillies beyond April, long after putting to bed the latest disappointing campaigns for the Sixers and Flyers. The heartbeat of the Delaware Valley continues to be measured by the calls to the venerable WIP and 97.5 FM “The Fanatic” as the Eagles once again became the main topic of conversation by the time of the NFL Draft.

The Birds were also one of the main NFL storylines early last season, when after sweeping to a 4-0 preseason mark for first-year HC Doug Pederson would win their first three regular-season games in style, including a 34-3 thumping of the Steelers at the Linc. Then, while Al Morganti and Angelo Cataldi tried to keep expectations in check on WIP, the bottom fell out of the Philly season, with nine losses in the next eleven games before a mild recovery at the end of the campaign with a Thursday upset win over the Giants and a season-ending win over the hated Cowboys, who it should be noted were subbing liberally in a meaningless game (don’t bother trying to convince Mike Missanelli’s callers on 97.5 FM that Dallas low-keyed it, however.).

Along the way, Wentz, proving he could handle the jump from FCS North Dakota State to the NFL, was the centerpiece, though his hot start would fizzle after opposing defenses got to take a longer look. After beginning quickly following the surprise late preseason trade of Sam Bradford to the Vikings, Wentz hit the rookie wall, tossing just 9 TDs vs. 13 picks over his last 11 games. Though Pederson, who surprisingly opened the playbook almost all of the way for Wentz last September, put his rookie QB on something of a leash as the season progressed, with almost all of the designed pass plays out of the pocket as the campaign wound to its conclusion.

The mobility of Wentz, and his ability to make plays on the run, should be worked more into the Birds’ offensive repertoire this fall. Wentz has a strong and accurate arm and the ability to extend plays with his legs, and expect the ex-QB Pederson (who was Andy Reid’s first starter in Philly way back in 1999) to take better advantage. Just in case Wentz falters, or gets hurt, a past flavor of the month at the Linc, Nick Foles, has been brought back in a relief role after spending time with the Rams and Chiefs the past couple of years.

In the offseason, GM Howie Roseman, who had won a power struggle with Chip Kelly the year before, went about finding Wentz more help in free agency. The result would appear to be an upgraded receiving corps, bolstered by additions of ex-Bear Alshon Jeffery and ex-49er and Raven Torrey Smith. (Roseman was comfy enough with Jeffery and Smith and, apparently, third-year WR Nelson Agholor that he decided to offload last year’s top pass-catcher among the wideouts, Jordan Matthews, to the Bills in early August.)

Also added was chop-busting RB LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for a league-high 18 TDs last season with the Super Bowl champion Patriots, and who should answer what was a Philly problem last season around the goal line. Blount solves another dilemma for Roseman and Pederson after the Eagles seemed overloaded with versatile but undersized backs like vet Darren Sproles, who still excels at punt returns. Another of those darters, San Diego State rookie and NCAA all-time leading rusher Donnel Pumphrey, could emerge as an effective situational back this fall. The forward wall appears serviceable as long as 35-year old LT Jason Peters can give Pederson another Pro Bowl season and bookend RT Lane Johnson stays on the field after missing 10 games last year due to a second PED violation. Meanwhile, Caleb Sturgis has emerged as one of the league’s best PKs and made 35 off his 41 FG tries last season.

Roseman has also stayed busy fortifying his defense, which received attention with the first three picks in the draft and recently added CB Ron Darby from the Bills in the Jordan Matthews trade. Adding Darby was an important move by Roseman, who whiffed on most of his targets at the corner in free agency after last year’s starters Nolan Carroll (FA to Dallas) and Leodis McKelvin (released) did not return. A difficult training camp for 3rd-round draft pick CB Rasul Douglas from West Virginia added some urgency to finding an upgrade, especially since another CB, 2nd-round pick Sidney Jones from Washington, is likely out for the season as he rehabs an Achilles tendon injury. Darby now likely teams with one FA signee that Roseman did engineer, Patrick Robinson from the Saints, which appears a needed improvement on the corners in a division with wideouts like Odell Beckham, Jr., Dez Bryant, and Terrelle Pryor. They’ll team with established safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod in what looks like a functional secondary.

Up front, it is hoped that first-round pick DE Derek Barnett from Tennessee will pace a reloaded DL and perhaps flourish in d.c. Jim Schwartz’s “Wide 9" schemes playing next to Pro Bowl DT Fletcher Cox. After allowing DT Bennie Logan (who moved to the Chiefs) and DE/LB Connor Barwin (who moved to the Rams) to walk in free agency, the Birds also added vet DE Chris Long (from the Patriots) to work off the edge and hopefully increase QB pressure after the Schwartz defense recorded only 14 sacks over the final ten games of the season. Schwartz would also like to get WLB Mychal Kendricks on the field more often after the Birds were in two-LB sub-packages much of the time last fall.

Philly has an intriguing look about it, with an apparently-upgraded supporting cast around Wentz and with defensive reinforcements added as needed with the recent acquisition of CB Ron Darby from the Bills. Now, the questions are if Wentz, who has been ahead of the learning curve to this point, can build upon the positives of his rookie season and take the next step to being a playoff QB, and if HC Pederson is really a playoff coach. We’ll see.

Spread-wise, Philly was streaky last season, with three-game cover streaks to begin and end the season, but dropping 8 of 10 vs. the number in between. The Pederson Birds also developed a home-road pattern, covering 6 of 8 at the Linc but dropping 6 of 8 vs. the points on the road.

As always, we suggest listening to WIP and 97.5 The Fanatic for a colorful commentary on developments this fall.

It was not the smoothest offseason for the Washington Redskins (2016 SU 8-7-1; ATS 10-6; O/U 12-4). Things got bumpy when the Skins ended their working relationship with GM Scot McCloughan on March 9 after anonymous leaks (standard operating procedure everywhere in D.C. these days, it would seem) within the organization claimed abuse of alcohol. All after McCloughan had set both the draft and free-agent boards for the Redskins. Team prexy Bruce Allen has since handled personnel matters as the team continues to shop for a permanent GM. Earlier, HC Jay Gruden was signed, a bit unexpectedly, to a two-year extension, as o.c. Sean McVay was hired as the new HC of the Rams and d.c. Joe Barry was fired. Gruden subsequently promoted from within (Matt Cavanaugh for offense, Greg Manusky for defense) to fill the coordinator roles. Most of the FA headlines involved losing a pair of 1000-yard receivers (DeSean Jackson to the Bucs and Pierre Garcon to the 49ers), the first time that has ever happened in an offseason to a team in NFL history, though Terrelle Pryor, a 1000-yard wideout LY for Cleveland, was signed.

Then there was the matter of QB Kirk Cousins, still unable to arrive at a long-term deal with the team, but don’t feel sorry for the former Michigan State star; after getting franchise-tagged at around $20 million last season; Cousins will be getting nearly $24 mill in another one-year deal for this term. After making $600K in the last year of his rookie contract in 2015, Cousins has already hit the lottery. Washington, however, will be looking at an even-more expensive deal in 2018 if it again franchise-tags (at what would be over $34 mill), or instead uses the transition tag (which would cost just short of $29 mill), on Cousins. Whatever, many insiders believe that after this season, Cousins is most likely to walk in free agency, where several destinations (most prominently San Francisco) have already been mentioned as possible landing spots. All contributing to further uncertainty at Redskins Park.

Taken in full, it presents a potentially disturbing scenario for Skins fans who know that owner Dan Snyder is always capable of unwelcome meddling, with worries that Snyder is again becoming too involved in the decision-making along with Allen. Though there seems to be a desire to develop some continuity with Gruden as head coach, remember that no mentor has ever lasted beyond four seasons (including the iconic Joe Gibbs and two-time Super Bowl winner Mike Shanahan) on Snyder’s watch. And upon reflection, the surprise 2015 NFC East title had as much to do with the division collapsing around Washington, as Dallas endured an injury-plagued campaign, the Chip Kelly regime ran aground in Philly, and the Giants, likely the best team in the division, repeatedly shot themselves in the foot numerous times with a number of inexplicable close losses, prompting the departure of HC Tom Coughlin. Two years ago, merely getting to .500 would have been enough to qualify for the postseason, and those who suspected the Redskins were not a legitimate playoff team had those suspicions confirmed when the Packers rolled in the Wild Card round at FedEx Field.

A return to the playoffs still looked possible for much of 2016 until Washington faded down the stretch, losing 4 of its last 6, including misfires at home against the Panthers and Giants, the latter having already secured a postseason berth. Now many inside the Beltway are wondering if the Skins can even get that close to the playoffs this fall.

The questions of offense have mostly to do with new outside targets for Cousins after the departures of Garcon and Jackson, who combined for 137 catches a year ago. Ex-Brown Pryor might partly fill that gap after gaining 1007 receiving yards of his own last season in Cleveland, but another question involves the health of Josh Doctson, a first-round pick from TCU in 2016 whose Achilles tendon injuries wrecked his rookie campaign. Possession wideout Jamison Crowder (67 catches LY) and TE Jordan Reed are known commodities and have a comfort level with Cousins, but the offense could have a less-menacing look if Pryor and another wideout (Doctson or perhaps ex-Ram FA Brian Quick) can’t come close to replicating the big-play dimensions of Garcon and Jackson.

There is also a need for a featured RB to emerge; watch Oklahoma rookie Samaje Perine, with a combination of power and speed that could net him substantial carries by midseason. Because of inconsistencies in the ground game, the Skins ended 29th in red-zone efficiency despite owning the league’s 3rd-rated offense. (Cousins could also make better use of another 4917 YP than the 25 TDP he mustered a year ago.) The OL, tutored by ex-Raiders and Nebraska HC Bill Callahan, might be the most stable unit on the team, led by emerging G Brandon Scherff, but for all of the yards gained, the “O” probably should have scored more than 24.8 ppg a year ago.

Plenty of alterations have also been made on defense beyond the change of coordinators. The Skins ranked in the bottom ten vs. both the run and pass, and there could be an entirely new DL, with first-round pick DE Jonathan Allen from Alabama likely to be in the lineup alongside fellow DE Terrell McClain (FA via Dallas) and NT Stacy McGee (FA via Oakland). Another FA addition, ILB Zach Brown from Buffalo, is expected to add more sideline-to-sideline speed to the platoon, but OLB Preston Smith saw his sack total drop in half from his rookie year, and hybrid OLB/DE Trent Murphy, whose nine sacks ranked behind only fellow LB Ryan Kerrigan on the team last fall, starts the season on a four-game PED suspension.

The Skins are desperately hoping that another FA addition, FS D.J. Swearinger from Arizona, can solidify the secondary where former LB Su’a Cravens also moves from LB to SS to help in case DaAngelo Hall is slow to recover from last year’s ACL tear. Foes, however, often threw away from ex-Panther CB Josh Norman and picked on Bashaud Breeland on the other side, a tactic that might continue this fall.

Add it up, and it's no surprise that many inside and around the Beltway suspect that things might be ready to unravel at Redskins Park. It’s not as if we haven’t seen this before in the Dan Snyder era.

It’s worth noting that Gruden has opened the eyes of the sports book patrons in Nevada with his team covering 14 of its last 21 since late in the 2015 season, including 9-3 the last 12 as a regular-season dog. The Skins are also “over” 17-4 their last 21 games entering 2017. And Gruden has covered six straight vs. the NFC East rival Eagles.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, AUGUST 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CHI at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN -3.5

U 43.5

CIN at WAS 04:30 PM

CIN +3.0

O 44.5

SF at MIN 08:00 PM

MIN -5.5

O 41.0

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Hoyer has stellar half for 49ers, before 32-31 Vikings rally
August 27, 2017

MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Brian Hoyer had the San Francisco offense humming after sputtering through the first two preseason games, passing for 176 yards and two touchdowns in the first half before the Minnesota Vikings rallied for a 32-31 victory over the 49ers on Sunday night.

Sam Bradford and the Minnesota starters again failed to reach the end zone, though Bradford was sharp when given time to throw. Jerick McKinnon scored on a 108-yard kickoff return in the third quarter, boosting his bid to take over that role.

Backup quarterbacks Case Keenum and Taylor Heinicke led a late charge, with Heinicke's hurdle over the pylon for the 2-point conversion on the final play giving the Vikings the win after Terrell Newby's touchdown run with no time left.

Hoyer found Marquise Goodwin wide open for a 46-yard touchdown strike and Carlos Hyde out of the backfield for a 24-yard connection, some evidence of how new coach Kyle Shanahan's scheme could pick up the pace after the 49ers were one of the league's lowest-scoring teams the last three years.

Goodwin, the former Olympic long jumper who had the fastest 40-yard dash time at the 2013 NFL combine, ought to help. Injuries buried him in Buffalo.

The backups were buzzing, too, with an 87-yard score by Raheem Mostert off a screen pass from C.J. Beathard on third-and-22 in the third quarter and a short touchdown run by Mostert in the fourth quarter.

An unchallenged starter for the first time in his nine-year career, Hoyer finished 12 for 17 with a 143.3 passer rating. He completed his first nine passes. Beathard took another step toward solidifying himself as the backup, too, despite having a pass picked off by Antone Exum.

The depth chart behind Hyde at running back is wide open, with Mostert (130 yards, six touches) and rookie Matt Breida (34 yards, eight touches) standing out.

With left tackle Riley Reiff, running back Latavius Murray and wide receiver Laquon Treadwell all playing their first preseason game, Bradford and the Vikings were close to full strength. But the protection was again problematic, and Stefon Diggs dropped two passes.

In 13 possessions for the first team over their first three games this month, the Vikings produced 11 punts and one field goal. They reached the 6-yard line in the second quarter but ran out of time before they could try another play.

REID PROTEST RESUMES

San Francisco strong safety Eric Reid observed the national anthem from one knee , in apparent resumption of the human rights protest he joined last season with then-teammate Colin Kaepernick. Goodwin and others had their hands on Reid's shoulders.

Reid later drew the ire of Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen after lowering his shoulder into Thielen's chest during a reception in the second quarter. Reid kissed his flexed biceps muscle like Kaepernick used to do, before receiving an earful from Thielen in response to the necessity of the hit.

KICKING CONTEST

Marshall Koehn made a 58-yard field goal for the Vikings with room to spare, keeping the competition with Kai Forbath for the kicker job close. Koehn missed a 47-yard attempt a few minutes later after the interception, but he converted a 38-yard extra point after a penalty pushed it back.

SITTING OUT

49ers: FS Jimmie Ward (hamstring) was held out after being taken off the physically unable to perform list earlier in the week.

Vikings: TE Kyle Rudolph (leg) and DE Brian Robison (undisclosed) didn't suit up.

NOTABLE INJURIES

49ers: Five-time Pro Bowl LT Joe Staley was sidelined in the first quarter because of a knee injury, but he was walking around without displaying obvious discomfort or discouragement. ... LB Brock Coyle (knee) departed in the third quarter.

Vikings: LB Emmanuel Lamur left in the third quarter for a concussion evaluation. FS Anthony Harris (leg) was out in the fourth quarter.

[StarDust Bum]

Bengals' Burfict faces 5-game suspension for illegal hit
August 28, 2017

Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is facing a five-game suspension for an illegal hit on Kansas City Chiefs fullback Anthony Sherman during a preseason game this month, multiple outlets reported on Sunday.

Burfict, who is considered a repeat offender, hit Sherman while the running back was in a defenseless position on a pass play during the first quarter on Aug. 19. Alex Smith's intended pass for tight end Travis Kelce was not close in proximity to the unsuspecting Sherman, who was leveled by Burfict.

The NFL expanded its rules in the offseason to prevent defenseless players from taking shots above their shoulders.

Burfict will appeal the suspension and have a hearing next week, ESPN reported.

The 26-year-old Burfict is no stranger to league discipline during his five-year career, most notably drawing a three-game suspension for violations of player safety rules. The ban included an illegal hit on Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown during the playoffs following the 2015 season.

During that season, Burfict was fined $50,000 for a hit on Baltimore Ravens tight end Maxx Williams and $70,000 for three incidents in a regular-season contest with the Steelers. Those episodes with Pittsburgh set the stage for a contentious playoff contest in which Brown was injured and unable to play in the following week's AFC Championship Game against the Denver Broncos.

[StarDust Bum]

Cowboys' Hitchens out at least 8 weeks with knee fracture
August 28, 2017

FRISCO, Texas (AP) Dallas linebacker Anthony Hitchens broke a bone in his right knee in a preseason game against Oakland and is likely to miss at least eight weeks.

The Cowboys feared the injury was worse after Hitchens went to the ground clutching the knee in the final seconds of the second quarter in a 24-20 victory over the Raiders on Saturday night. The team said on its website Sunday that Hitchens sustained a tibial plateau fracture.

Although he won't miss the season, the loss of Hitchens is significant because of his ability to play multiple positions, and with the Cowboys bringing along second-year player Jaylon Smith slowly in his recovery from a devastating college knee injury.

Hitchens started all 16 games last season, his third, and had a career-high 104 tackles.

Justin Durant has been on the non-football injury list during camp after offseason elbow surgery but is a strong candidate to replace Hitchens as a starter.

[StarDust Bum]

Injuries affecting Falcons ground attack
August 27, 2017

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. -- The Atlanta Falcons offense, which led the league in scoring last season, looked shaky against in its "dress-rehearsal" game for the regular season.

There was no running back Devonta Freeman, who is in the concussion protocol. They didn't get the ball to All-Pro wide receiver Julio Jones, who was making his exhibition debut after offseason foot surgery. And quarterback Matt Ryan, the league's reigning most valuable player, was off the mark on 7 of his 11 passes.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has not been pleased with the offense's rushing attack during the exhibition season.

Freeman is set to return to practice on Monday and should give them a boost in practice.

"Devonta Freeman, you'll see back," Quinn said a day after an exhibition game loss to the Cardinals. "He'll return to play (Monday) in some individual (drills). So, that part is good from an injury standpoint."

Freeman, a two-time Pro Bowl player, is in the final stages of the league's five-step concussion protocol. He left practice Aug. 13 and has not practiced since.

"He's still going through the protocol and part of that is returning to practice," Quinn said. "He'll do some individual work. ... He'll start the return-to-play process with us beginning (on Monday)."

The Falcons' exhibition finale is scheduled for Thursday at home against the Jaguars and Quinn has already declared Freeman out for the game.

Freeman agreed to a five-year, $41.25 million contract extension that made him the highest-paid running back in the league earlier this month. The deal had a $15 million signing bonus and included $22 million in guaranteed money.

Last season, Freeman had 1,079 rushing yards with 11 touchdowns and 462 receiving yards with two touchdowns. In his three-year career, Freeman has rushed for 2,383 yards and 23 touchdowns.

Running back Brian Hill (ankle), a fifth-round pick from Wyoming, was battling for the third running back spot. He was declared out for the exhibition season finale with an ankle injury.

The injury hurts for Hill, who appears to be behind Terron Ward for the third running back spot.

"Brian, for sure, would have gotten extended carries again (against Jacksonville)," Quinn said. "We tried to feature him in each of the games to see what he can do. Really, in this system, to get more reps."

That Ward is playing better is no surprise to Quinn.

"It's Terron Ward's third year in the system," Quinn said. "That's over 30-something games for him watching and practicing and getting the looks at it. Brian is still gaining experience in it. For him to miss a week, this week, all of it counts, especially when you're first learning."

The Falcons are high on Hill, but he's off to a slow start rushing the football.

"He's improving, Brian is, on special teams," Quinn said. "We are going to keep working like crazy on offense. One of the areas of emphasis heading into the summer was catching out the backfield. It wasn't a big part of what he did at Wyoming. He's certainly improved in that area."

Ryan tried to connect on a couple of deep passes for Jones, but both were off the mark.

"We are going to take some opportunities down the field and give our guys chances," Ryan said. "They didn't work out and that'll be something that we talk about moving forward. That's part of the game. You're going to give your guys chances down the field. Some are going to hit and some don't."

[StarDust Bum]

Eagles have serious questions at backup QB spot
August 27, 2017

PHILADELPHIA -- The Philadelphia Eagles have a quarterback problem. No, it's not starter Carson Wentz. He's doing just fine.

Wentz finished his limited preseason work Thursday night against Miami with a solid one-quarter effort, completing 6 of 10 passes for 129 yards and touchdown throws to the team's two key free-agent acquisitions - wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith.

He'll watch the final preseason game Thursday against the Jets and make his 17th NFL start on Sept. 10 when the Eagles open the regular season against the Washington Redskins.

The problem is backup quarterback Nick Foles. Drafted by the Eagles in 2012, he re-signed with the Eagles in March after spending the previous two years in St. Louis and Kansas City.

He gives them a solid backup in the event something were to happen to Wentz. He has 36 career starts, a 56-27 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio and an 88.1 career passer rating. Four years ago, with the Eagles, he led the league in passing, throwing 27 touchdown passes and just two interceptions.

The problem is, he hasn't been healthy. Early in training camp, he came down with a sore elbow on his right throwing arm. He missed two weeks of camp, returned for two practices, then was out again.

He hasn't played in any of the Eagles' first three preseason games, and it's doubtful he'll play against the Jets.

Head coach Doug Pederson listed Foles as "day to day" on Sunday. Asked whether he had a good feel for whether Foles would be able to play against the Jets, he said, "Not yet. It's getting better, obviously. He'll be getting in some throwing against this week. But I don't want to rush him back."

Pederson said he remains confident that Foles will be ready to go for the season opener. But he has not been very accurate with his injury prognoses this summer.

"I am (confident)," he said. "No, I am. I am. These are, obviously, sensitive elbow issues. Being on a throwing arm like that, (we) just want to make sure he's getting the proper amount of throws. That's why we're going to ease him back in again this week and get him ready for the regular season."

The Eagles have two other quarterbacks in camp: Matt McGloin and Dane Evans. Evans essentially is a camp arm. And since the Eagles were only expected to keep two quarterbacks - Wentz and Foles, McGloin basically was putting plays on tape for the rest of the league to see.

But the uncertainty over Foles could change things. They may have to carry a third quarterback - McGloin. If Foles ends up needing surgery, it's doubtful they would be content with McGloin as the season-long backup to Wentz.

Notes: Safety Terrence Brooks was traded to the Jets on Sunday for cornerback Dexter McDougle. Brooks, who played in 11 games for the Eagles last season, wasn't going to make the 53-man roster. McDougle, a former third-round pick of the Jets, also is a longshot to make the Eagles this late in the preseason. But if he plays well in Thursday night's final preseason game against, ironically enough, the Jets, he could possibly win one of the final corner spots. At the moment, just three corners are guaranteed season-opening roster jobs: starters Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills, and third-round rookie Rasul Douglas.

--Defensive tackle Beau Allen, who has been sidelined since the spring with a pectoral injury, was removed from the physically unable to perform list and practiced for the first time since his injury. Head coach Doug Pederson said Allen probably will play a little in Thursday's final preseason game against the Jets. "I'm going to be excited to watch him practice the next few days," Pederson said. "We're going to take it slow with him. He hasn't done anything, physically, for a while." Allen is expected to be the Eagles' third tackle this season, behind starters Fletcher Cox and Tim Jernigan.

Cornerback Ronald Darby, who the Eagles acquired from Buffalo two weeks ago for wide receiver Jordan Matthews and a 2018 third-round pick, had a rough night against Miami in the Eagles' third preseason game. He gave up a 72-yard catch and run to DeVante Parker and drew a 42-yard pass interference penalty after getting beat on a double move by Kenny Stills. Darby, who is the Eagles' most talented cornerback since Asante Samuel, shrugged off his poor performance as "one of those nights." Said Darby: "Some nights everything goes your way. Some nights everything don't. I'd rather it happen now than when it really counts."

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s six-pack

— Twins 7, Blue Jays 2— Byron Buxton hit three homers for Minnesota.

— Phillies 6, Cubs 3— Rhys Hoskins has 11 HRs in his last 52 at-bats.

— 49ers 31, Vikings 24— Minnesota’s 1st team didn’t look too good.

— Dustin Johnson beat Jordan Spieth in a playoff to win the Northern Trust Open.

— Rookie QB DeShone Kizer will start in Week 1 for the Browns. He was 6-18 passing in Cleveland’s game against the Bucs Saturday night.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):

AL: Boston-Cleveland-Houston. Wild Cards: New York/Minnesota

NL: Washington-Chicago-Los Angeles. Wild Cards: Arizona/Colorado

*****************************

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend

13) Houston is the 4th-largest city in America; they got 24.3 inches of rain in a 24-hour period this weekend. Our thoughts and prayers are with them.

LSU-BYU are scheduled to play in Houston next weekend, which seems highly unlikely, with a switch to Baton Rouge the most probably alternative.

Along same lines, Astros will fly to Dallas after today’s game; they’re supposed to host Texas at home Tuesday, but you’d think those games would be switched to Arlington.

12) In 2005, Houston became a second home to a lot of people when Hurricane Katrina pounded New Orleans; now a lot of Houstonians will probably migrate somewhere else. It is very sad that people’s lives get turned upside down by an act of Mother Nature.

11) Dodgers are now 19-1-3 in their last 23 series; before losing 2 of 3 at home to Milwaukee this weekend, the last one they lost was June 5-7 vs Washington.

10) Reds’ 2B Scooter Gennett has three grand slams in 10 AB’s with bases loaded this year.

9) Last year, Patriots WR Julian Edelman was targeted by Tom Brady 38 times on 3rd down, which was more than the next three Patriots combined- Hogan (11), Amendola (11) and Mitchell (10). Now Edelman is out for the season- who will step up and take his place?

8) Hawai’i 38, UMass 35— Rainbows trailed 28-14 in third quarter, scored TD with 0:48 left to make the very long trip home a happy one.

7) New York 10, Seattle 1— Mariners made five errors IN THE FIRST INNING!!! Saturday nights in New York City can be very draining.

Last time a major league team made five errors in one inning? 1977 Cubs.

6) Indians 12, Royals 0— Cleveland led this game 12-0 in the second inning. Oy.

Royals have gone 34 consecutive innings without scoring a run.

5) NFL injury stuff:
— Bears WR Cameron Meredith hurt his knee Sunday, big loss for Chicago— he looked like an up-and-coming star.
— Bears also lost long snapper Patrick Scales (knee).
— Jets’ QB Bryce Petty sprained his MCL, hopes to play in the last preseason game.

4) New Orleans Pelicans lose starting forward Solomon Hill to a torn hamstring- he could miss most of the coming NBA season.

3) Pirates 5, Reds 2— Joey Votto batted five times and walked all five times; his on-base % is .447. Billy Hamilton bats leadoff for the Reds; his on-base % is .296. Why doesn’t Votto bat leadoff?

2) Marlins 6, Padres 2— Giancarlo Stanton’s 50th home run of the year put Miami ahead 4-2 in the bottom of the 8th inning. Marlins are very hot right now.

DL happenings……..
— Royals put P Danny Duffy (elbow) on the DL
— Tigers put DH Victor Martinez (irregular heartbeat) on the DL.
— Cardinals put IF Jedd Gyorko (hamstring) on the DL.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday’s six-pack

Six baseball contracts that surprised me:

— Jordan Zimmerman, Det: 3 years, $74M left after this year

— Jose Altuve, Hst: 4 years, $12.5M; club option for 2018. Think they’ll take it?

— David Wright, NYM: Mets are on hook for 3 more years, $47M

— Francisco Cervelli, Pitt: 2 years, $22M left after this year

— Albert Pujols, LAA: 4 years left, $114M left after this year. Oy.

— Mike Trout, LAA: 3 years left, $102M left after this year.

***********************

Tuesday’s List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) Hurricane happenings:
— Astros-Rangers series this week moves to the Trop in St Petersburg.
— Texans-Cowboys exhibition game Thursday moves to Dallas.
— BYU-LSU football Saturday moves to the Superdome in New Orleans.

12) This storm in Texas might be the worst storm ever; another 15-25 inches of rain is expected between now and Thursday. We pray for everyone down there; stay safe!!!!

11) Only two New York Mets have been active for all their games this season; Jerry Blevins and Jacob deGrom.

10) Mets’ 1B prospect Dominic Smith is batting .161 in his first 59 major league AB’s; it is too early to worry about him (Rhys Hoskins started 0-12 and look how he’s doing) but I saw Smith play in Las Vegas in July and wasn’t all that impressed by him then. Time will tell.

9) June Jones is now the coach of the Hamilton TigerCats of the CFL after the TiCats got off to an awful start this season; he’s brought in former Baylor coach Art Briles as an assistant.

8) Rice University’s football team came back from its game in Australia and has relocated at TCU in Fort Worth, as they wait out the storm/flooding near their campus.

7) Indianapolis Colts traded long snapper Thomas Hennessy to Jets in exchange for safety Ronald Martin. Unusual trade.

6) Miami Marlins have new owners, a team that is rolling right now and the best outfield in all of baseball, but I keep seeing articles on how the the team might trade Giancarlo Stanton at the end of the season. Is that a good idea?

Stanton has a HUGE contract that has a long way to go on it; trading him is a bold move, since he is having a great season and is hugely popular in Miami. What could they get back for him? Tough early decision for the new ownership.

5) The profile of Ivy League basketball is getting bigger; Yale-St Bonaventure game on December 9 is going to be shown on ESPNU.

4) Jets named Josh McCown their starting QB, which if he is healthy, is the only possible choice they could’ve made. Bryce Petty played well Saturday but hurt his knee; the other options were not good at all.

3) Clayton Kershaw is going to be activated later this week and will start either Friday/Saturday against the Padres in San Diego. He threw five innings in a AAA rehab start Saturday.

2) If you want to replace those statues that have been taken down recently, how about a statue of a first responder carrying two little kids out of a flooded house? Those guys are heroes, for sure.

1) DeShone Kizer will be the Cleveland Browns’ 27th different starting QB since 1999.

[StarDust Bum]

2017 NFC Preview
August 28, 2017

Year In Review

Six of the NFL’s eight divisions featured new champions in 2016, the most in a season since 2011.

Since the 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990, at least four teams have qualified for the playoffs in every season that were not in the postseason the year before. Six teams that missed the postseason in 2015 accomplished the feat this year, including four from the NFC – Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit and the NY Giants. Miami and Oakland were the two AFC squads.

In addition, 52.7% of all regular season games (135 of 256) were decided by a touchdown (7 points) or less – the most in NFL history. The previous high was 131 occurrences in 2015.

The Detroit Lions won eight games when trailing in the fourth quarter in 2016, the most in a single season in NFL history.

And finally, when the Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East division title in 2016 it marked the 13th time in the past 14 seasons that one or more teams went from last or tied for last place to a division championship the following year. The only time a team failed to do so was in 2014.

Red Rover Red Rover

Since 2006, NFC teams off a win have gone 27-9-1 ‘Over’ the total in games with a posted total of less than 37 points following a win, including 13-2 ‘Over’ the last 15 games.

More importantly, they are 18-1 ‘Over’ in this role in non-division games. Play accordingly.

2017 NFC EAST PREVIEW

DALLAS COWBOYS
TEAM THEME: THAT’S WHY THEY CALL IT THE BLUES

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9.5 -130
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 131.5

For the first time since 2009, two teams from the NFC East found the postseason, only to each go one-and-done courtesy of the Green Bay Packers. Dallas fans should consider it a success, considering they won four games the previous year and lost Tony Romo before the regular season even began. However, we doubt Jerry sees it that way as his ‘Boys, thanks to rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot, garnered home field throughout the NFC playoffs. It does look like Prescott hit the proverbial rookie wall as an 11-1 start evaporated into a 2-3 finish. However, before anointing him the next Roger Staubach, keep this in mind: Robert Griffin III also enjoyed a brilliant Rookie of the Year campaign.

As for Elliott, aside from his 6-game suspension to begin the season, he loses two starters from the league’s best O-line. Top draft selections DE Taco Charlton and LB Chidobe Awuzi address major needs on defense but can the ‘Boys continue to win 70% of their games (7-3) that are decided by a TD or less? Five primetime affairs should tell us firsthand but it would come as no surprise to find the dynamic duo drop a little freshmen weight as a case of the sophomore blues figures to surface in 2017.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys were the only NFL team to go undefeated (10-0) during the regular season against non-division foes in 2016.

PLAY AGAINST: at Washington (10/29)

NEW YORK GIANTS
TEAM THEME: AND THE CARDS SAY… A BROKEN HEART

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5 -110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 129

The G-Men hope ‘rest makes rust’ for more than a few squads as they face four opponents coming off a bye week this season (FYI: teams in this role are 5-8 SU against the fourth foe). They also hope that RB Paul Perkins can inject life into a soft rushing attack that slipped nearly a full yard per carry in 2016 though, oddly enough, they fully failed to address a dismal offensive line situation. However, OT Chad Wheeler out of USC, who garnered First Team All-Pac 12 honors but went undrafted due to a checkered medical and off-field history, could provide immediate help.

The offense did look lackluster at times as Eli’s yardage, touchdowns and QBR rating dropped from the previous two seasons but no assistance should be needed for a passing game that adds first-round selection TE Evan Engram and stud WR Brandon Marshall to the incomparable Odell Beckham. An 8-3 record in games decided by a TD or less may be just what the doctor is ordering in 2017 as the Giants play 10 games against foes that owned winning records last year. And remember: with the Jets still lingering at the bottom, the New York headlines still belong to Big Blue.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 20-3 ATS as underdogs of 5 or more points following a SU win.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona (12/24)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
TEAM THEME: FROM WENTZ HE CAME

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 -120
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 129

Carson Wentz’s rookie season was commendable, albeit he ran out of gas, as the former North Dakota State star didn’t have the luxury of facing Western Illinois or Missouri State down the stretch. In fact, the 3-0 start had Eagles fans dreaming big as the last two Philly teams to start the season with that mark made it to the Super Bowl. However, a 4-9 finish flushed away those thoughts, sending the faithful to a different bowl. Don’t expect Wentz to need the Viagra this season, though, as the offense stocked the backfield with Donnel Pumphrey and LaGarrette Blount while adding a pair of big-play receivers in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith.

The secondary was also made a priority as two corners and a safety were drafted in hopes of defending the likes of Odell Beckham and Dez Bryant. A cushy non-division slate (71-91) helps, too, but jot this down and remember it: Philadelphia lost the fewest amount players to injuries in terms of man games lost in 2016. According to ManGamesLost.com, over the last nine seasons, the NFL team that lost the fewest amount of players to injuries has incurred an equal or worse record the following season ALL NINE YEARS. Gulp.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles are 0-6 ATS in games against .500 or greater AFC West opponents.

PLAY ON: at Washington (9/10)

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
TEAM THEME: SHIRTS OR SKINS?

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5 -110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 132

What do you get for inheriting a team that went 7-25 prior to your arrival and delivering two winning seasons, including a playoff appearance for just the second time in 8 years? A raise or a pat on the back. Or how about an attaboy. Well, if you’re GM Scot McCloughan, try a pink slip! And while the Redskins have mysteriously yet to hire a new GM, they did hit the free agent market, acquiring Terrelle Pryor, one of 19 WRs with new teams this season. That means Kirk Cousins will have a whole new look as 2016 first-rounder Josh Dotson (played only 2 games) returns from an Achilles injury. The running game may also take on a new appearance as 4th-round steal Samaje Perine may squeeze past ‘Fat’ Rob Kelly and become the primary back.

Defensively, the Redskins massively upgraded their defensive line – one that was 27th against the rush in 2016 – by grabbing DE Jonathan Allen in the first round. Last season was the first time since 1996-97 that the Redskins enjoyed back-to-back winning campaigns. In fact, you have to go back to 1992 to find the last time they recorded three straight winning seasons. Hence, a lot of people have lost their shirts betting on the Skins off a winning year. Will this third one by the charm?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS following consecutive wins when facing AFC West opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Seattle (11/5)

2017 NFC NORTH PREVIEW

CHICAGO BEARS
TEAM THEME: PARTY POOPERS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 5.5 +100
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 126.5

After signing Mike Glennon to a $45 million contract and inviting him to the NFL Draft party at Soldier Field, the Bears then went out and drafted his replacement, trading four picks to move up ONE spot and grab North Carolina QB Mitch Trubisky. If that doesn’t sound like an episode of ‘Chicago Injustice’ (are you listening Dick Wolf), then we don’t know what does. It was a cold move that left us shaking our head, reminding us of how the Redskins mortgaged their future in 2012 to move up to the No. 2 spot to grab RGIII - a much higher rated prospect than Trubisky.

We noted last year the success of John Fox in Year Two with a program. It never materialized in Chicago as injuries played a significant role in the Bears’ 3-13 slide, their lowest win total since the NFL expanded to a 16-game slate. Fortunately, Year Three has also been a charm for Fox as he posted a combined 22-13 SU and 21-13-1 ATS mark with both Carolina and Denver. However, this Fox must find a way to improve on a 1-6 SU record last season in games decided by 7 points or less if he wants to get his team out of the NFC North hole.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: John Fox’s teams are 7-0 SUATS away against sub .500 opponents in Year Three with a program.

PLAY ON: at Philadelphia (11/26)

DETROIT LIONS
TEAM THEME: RUNNING ON EMPTY

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 7.5 -110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 132.5

Despite allowing more yards than they gained and finishing the season with a negative scoring differential, the Lions somehow managed to win more games than they lost in 2016 (9-7). Winning eight of 13 games decided by a TD or less could do that but so could the play of durable QB Matthew Stafford, who hasn’t missed a start since 2010. Stafford is coming off a sixth straight 4,200 plus-yard campaign while leading the Lions to eight 4th-quarter comebacks and eight game winning drives, both NFL single-season records. And with more than $60 million in cap space next year, the 9-year veteran and holder of 30 Detroit passing marks could be in line for the biggest payday in league history.

A revamped offensive line should keep Stafford upright and also inject life into a rushing attack that had the fewest attempts per game (21.5) in 2016 while suffering its third straight sub 90 YPG season. Nine new starters will call Ford Field home this season but surprisingly none of them will reside in the backfield as the Lions lost out on free agent RB LeGarrette Blount to Philadelphia. Oh well, at least the Cardiac Cats are, once again, well-armed as they look to roar into the postseason for the first time in three years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Jim Caldwell’s teams are 6-1 SUATS in games with rest.

PLAY ON: at Green Bay (11/6)

GREEN BAY PACKERS
TEAM THEME: A LEAP OF FAITH

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10.5 +110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 130

Eight straight postseason appearances has only the Pack residing in New England’s neighborhood but it isn’t enough as Aaron Rodgers (89-59-4 ATS in his NFL career, including 36-17 ATS in division duels) and company have only delivered one Lombardi Trophy to Title Town during that span. And while we’d love to anoint them as this year’s NFC rep, we must first see if Mike McCarthy can fix a defense that has regressed each of the past two seasons – and patch an offensive line that lost a pair of Pro Bowl guards and a starting center. By acquiring secondary help through the draft in the form of 2nd-rounders CB Kevin King and S Josh Jones and free agency, the Packers did address a major need: helping a defense that ranked dead last in the league in passing yards allowed (277.7), passing yards per attempt (7.6) and total yards per play (6.9).

Versatile speedster Ty Montgomery takes over for the departed Eddie Lacy but fourth-round pick Jamaal Williams, who is built like a tank and ran like one at BYU, figures to make many Lambeau leaps. The third fewest travel miles (8,062) in league this season also figures to keep the Pack fresh for the annual postseason run.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Packers have been humbled in their six meetings with sub .500 AFC North opponents, going 1-5 SU all-time.

PLAY ON: at Atlanta (9/17) - *KEY

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
TEAM THEME: THE BRADFORD EXCHANGE

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8.5 +120
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 127.5

Talk about a godsend. Not only did Sam Bradford step in admirably for Teddy Bridgewater, whose knee was virtually destroyed in a preseason non-contact drill, he enjoyed the finest season of his NFL career, completing over 71% of his passes while chalking up a QBR rating of 99.3. A pair of quality tackles joins the offensive mix this season in Riley Reiff (Lions) and Mike Remmers (Panthers), as does WR Michael Floyd and RB Latavius Murray. The Vikings also drafted RB Dalvin Cook in hopes of boosting a rushing attack that ranked dead last in the league. FYI: Peter King of SI predicts Cook will be a Top 5 running back by Halloween. If that were to happen, Minnesota’s offense could be scary good and should average more than 320 YPG for the first time since 2013.

As for the defense, it was stingy last season, ranking 5th in points allowed (19.2) and 3rd in total defense (314.9) and has improved every year under 4th-year head coach Mike Zimmer, who underwent his 8th eye surgery in May. We have our sights set on this group early as December is dotted with road games at Atlanta, Carolina, and Green Bay.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Snow or no snow, the Vikings are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in the month of December.

PLAY AGAINST: at Carolina (12/10) - *KEY

2017 NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

ATLANTA FALCONS
TEAM THEME: DAN QUINN – MEDICINE MAN?

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9.5 -110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 133

Thanks to questionable play-calling and clock management, the Falcons blew a 25-point lead in regulation to lose the Big One in overtime – leaving management with this sobering thought: time to bring in OC Steve Sarkisian to replace the departed Kyle Shanahan (San Francisco). Despite a costly fumble, the largest choke job in Super Bowl history can’t be pinned on Matt Ryan as he set career postseason highs in completion percentage (73.9), average yards per pass attempt (12.35) and QB rating (144.1). ‘Matty Ice’ was also on fire during the regular season as the Atlanta offense tallied a whopping 540 points (71 more than their nearest competitor). The collapse led to the firing of DC Richard Smith and we know teams with 1st-year coordinators tend to struggle.

Super Bowl losers also find the going tough on the non-division highway next season, posting a 78-95-1 SU and 73-93-8 ATS log, including 27-46-5 ATS as chalk. Despite five primetime affairs in 2017, the NFL did the Falcons no favors, pegging them with the 5th most difficult schedule (foes’ wins project to 133). Break out the medicine, Dan.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons were winless on the Monday Night road since 1979 before winning three Monday Night road games last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Seattle (11/20)

CAROLINA PANTHERS
TEAM THEME: ALL THOSE WONDERFUL TOYS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 9 -120
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 127

As is usually the case from a Super Bowl loser, the Panthers took a big fall in 2016. And there’s plenty of blame to go around for the 11-game decline! The offense regressed 8 points and 22 yards per game as former reigning MVP Cam Newton completed just 52.9% of his passes and learned first hand about Sir Isaac’s Third Law of Motion (for every force there is a reaction force). In addition, the defense also slipped 42 YPG as LB Luke Keuchly’s fearlessness led him to concussion protocol (as did five other Panthers). The good news for Newton is Christmas came early. The Cats’ spent their first two draft picks on Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) and Curtis Samuel (Ohio State), a pair of athletic, pass-catching backs who should excel in the slot.

They also retained the services of TE Greg Olsen, a vital cog in the Cats’ attack. In fact, no other tight end in the NFL has a higher percentage of his team’s receiving yards over the past three years than Olsen (27.3 percent of the Panthers’ 11,663 yards and 25.8 percent of the team’s 241 receptions). Rest assured, this Newton won’t ‘stay at rest’ this season and the ‘good hands’ offense just may insure a return to the playoffs.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cam Newton has been sacked or hit 922 times since 2011. Seattle’s Russell Wilson is second with 615.

PLAY ON: at Tampa Bay (10/29) - *KEY

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
TEAM THEME: OH CRAP, HERE WE GO AGAIN

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 -110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 139

The number seven may make some money in Vegas but three consecutive 7’s (as in win seasons) means its time for the Saints to crap out or get off the toilet. (FYI: the odds of rolling 7 at the table is “1 in 6”.) And though we don’t see snake eyes with Drew Brees at the helm, the Saints – hands down – face the most difficult schedule with foes projected to win 139 games, a gap of 4.5 wins to the next toughest. New Orleans did hit the free agent market, inking Adrian Peterson, which is somewhat of a curious move considering Mark Ingram tallied 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career and the Saints employ a shotgun offense.

Though they bombed badly the previous two years with secondary selections, HC Sean Payton will, once again, look to patch up the league’s worst pass defense with the selections of CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State) and S Marcus Williams (Utah). And though there’s always a strong ‘Brees’ in the bayou, the winds of change may take some time – especially with Pro Bowl C Max Unger still wobbly from a lingering foot injury, and the Saints residing in the ultra-competitive NFC South.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Saints are far from Aints when they take on AFC East foes off an ATS win, going 15-1 ATS in their last 16 such games.

PLAY ON: at Atlanta (12/7)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
TEAM THEME: COOKIE KOETTERS

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 +120
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 125

As we thought, the Buccaneers broke on through to the other side, going from losers for five straight seasons to winners in 2016, despite regressing on both sides of the ball. That’s a major cause for concern, especially in a division that has no ‘gimmees’. Tampa inked Ryan Fitzpatrick to back up Jameis Winston– his 7th team NFL team in 10 years. Let hope the human turnover machine is not needed, given Fitzy’s 46-69-1 win-loss record, 166-133 TD-to-INT ratio and 79.7 career passing rating. The Bucs did hit the free agent pool, landing big fish WR DeSean Jackson. The extremely talented, outspoken Iverson, err Jackson, will team with Mike Evans, giving the offense a solid 1-2 punch.

Winston also got another toy via draft with the signing of O.J. Howard. Fox Sports notes that Howard caught just seven touchdowns in four years at Alabama. You have to go back 10 years to find a draft where the first tight end off the board scored less. Then again, that tight end was Greg Olsen! However, to build off last season’s success, the Bucs will need to be able to hang their hat at home more often as a 7-18 SU and 8-17 ATS mark in their last 25 games at the ‘New Sombrero’ won’t cut it. Inking DC Mike Smith to a contract extension will help.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After their last two winning seasons, the Bucs went 3-13 and 4-12 the following years, respectively.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Carolina (12/24) - *KEY

2017 NFC WEST PREVIEW

ARIZONA CARDINALS
TEAM THEME: ALL ABOARD THE ‘A’ TRAIN

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 8 -130
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 123.5

Suffice to say it wasn’t a great year to be a Palmer in the sports world. Arnie’s Army lost their king while the Cardinals’ Carson was wobbly from start to finish, resulting in a 71-point drop off in total points scored from the previous season. And though the Redbirds surprisingly didn’t draft a quarterback, they did add Blaine Gabbert and undrafted rookie Trevor Knight to the backup pool of Drew Stanton and Zac Dysert. Fortunately, whoever starts under center will have the luxury of handing off to the league’s leading rusher. David Johnson tallied 2,118 total yards while posting 15 straight games with at least 100 yards from scrimmage, matching Barry Sanders for the longest-single season streak in NFL history. The Cards also added speedy linebacker Haason Reddick and hyperactive safety Budda Baker to an already aggressive defense that held four foes to under 10 points last season. A soft slate – opponents 2017 win totals project to a combined 123.5 (3rd fewest in the league) – may be offset by the second most air miles in the loop this season (30,422), but we’ll still look for Bruce Arians to raise Arizona back to postseason status.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians is 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS at home against foes off a SUATS win.

PLAY ON: vs. L.A. Rams (10/22)

LOS ANGELES RAMS
TEAM THEME: SEND IN THE FIXER

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 6 +110
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 128.5

Considering the Rams have fielded the youngest squad in the league over the past five seasons, the hiring of 31-year-old Sean McVay – the youngest head coach in NFL history – should come as no surprise. That should help in the development of Jared Goff as McVay and his staff have a strong resume with quarterbacks, in particular Kirk Cousins. The Rams added a couple of offensive pieces through the draft (TE Gerald Everett, WR Copper Kupp) but it’s not enough for an offense that has averaged 20 PPG only four times since 2004. They’ll need RB Todd Gurley to return to rookie form as the 2016 campaign saw a dropoff in rushing yards (1,106 to 885), yards per carry (4.8 to 3.2) and TDs (10 to 6) despite playing in three more games. Wade Phillips was a terrific hire to spearhead a defense that allowed more points than the numbers would suggest. However, a mid-October trip to Jacksonville followed by a cross-continent journey to London (against Arizona) capped by a trip to New York to face the Giants finds the Rams logging the most miles in the league this season (32,498) and could take a late-season toll.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams haven’t had a winning season since 2003, the longest active streak in the NFL.

PLAY ON: at NY Giants (11/5)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
TEAM THEME: GOLD DUST

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 5 +100
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 128.5

Taking a page out of Cleveland’s QB situation, the 49ers turn to Kyle Shanahan – their 3rd head coach in three years. They also have a new man calling the shots. Rookie GM John Lynch, a disciple of John Elway, killed it in the draft by looting the Bears (who apparently made their moves from a pub on Rush Street) while still filling defensive holes, getting DE Solomon Thomas with the 3rd pick and adding LB Reuben Foster later in the round. If LB NaVorro Bowman can come back from a pair of gruesome knee and Achilles tendon injuries, the stop-unit could be upper echelon in a hurry.

The Niners also made significant roster changes to an offense that continued to sputter, ranking next to last in total yards per game (308.1). QB Brian Hoyer holds an edge over Matt Barkley for the starting job, while WRs Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin and RB Tim Hightower should make immediate contributions. Hoyer has been a serviceable journeyman (16-16 SU in his well-traveled career, including 9-2 ATS in division games) and actually played for Shanahan when he was the offensive coordinator in Cleveland, posting a 10-6 SU and 10-5-1 ATS mark as a starter on teams that ended the season 11-21. And with Shanahan also assuming the play-calling duties in the bay, being reunited just might feel so good.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 49ers are 9-1 SU in Last Home Games the last ten seasons.

PLAY ON: at Arizona (10/1)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
TEAM THEME: MONDAY, MONDAY – CAN TRUST THAT DAY

Westgate SuperBook Season Win Total: 10.5 -130
Opponents’ Collective Season Win Total: 123
No team will face an easier set of foes in 2017 than Seattle as their slate of opponents is tabbed at 123 combined season wins. In fact, the Seahawks are the only team in the NFC with no back-to-back road games on their itinerary. The ‘12th Man’ is certainly a nice advantage but it probably doesn’t matter where the games are being played to a defense that held a league-best five foes to under 10 points, allowed 3.4 DYPR and registered 42 sacks, trailing only Arizona and Carolina. We’re sure Pete Carroll would love to be playing at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on February 4th… and he just might get there provided he can keep a shaky OL in tact.

Outside of their opener in Lambeau and a Christmas Eve affair in Dallas, the Seahawks’ toughest contest looks to be a Monday night affair at home just before Thanksgiving, bringing in this little gem: the Russell Wilson-led ‘Hawks have never lost on MNF – and the last time Seattle lost on MNF was December 6, 2004 versus Dallas. This year’s MNF foe happens to be the Super Bowl-losing Atlanta Falcons, the team that booted them in the NFC championship game last season. FYI: the last time Seattle lost to Atlanta in the postseason, they went on to win the Super Bowl (and 16 games) the following year. Hmm.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Seattle has not had a single first round pick in the NFL draft over the last five years.

PLAY ON: at Green Bay (9/10)

[BettorsChat]

NFL Getting close

[StarDust Bum]

Detroit Lions Outlook
August 29, 2017

Matthew Stafford Is Worth Every Penny

Matthew Stafford just signed a gargantuan 5-year, $135 million contract to pilot the Detroit Lions through 2022. The deal instantly makes Stafford the highest paid quarterback in the league, not that he was suffering for cash to begin with. This is familiar ground for the Detroit quarterback as he also signed the richest deal of any rookie at the time back when he entered the league in 2008.

Obviously, a lot of detractors have come out of the woodwork to lament the deal. After all, Matthew Stafford has been at the helm for precisely three playoff losses in as many tries and an obnoxiously terrible 5-46 SU record against winning teams. These aren’t made-up stats, guys.

None of this is meant to suggest that Matthew Stafford is a bad quarterback. For the past six seasons, he’s routinely ranked in the top-10 in terms of yards and touchdowns and is also the record holder for some insane production landmarks.

Matthew Stafford is the fastest player to reach 15,000 passing yards, 20,000 passing yards, 25,000 passing yards and 30,000 passing yards in a career. And the eight comebacks that he led in the fourth quarter last year are also a really big deal.

That’s really the whole point of Stafford getting $135 million over a handful of seasons. You may not win a Super Bowl with the team surrounding Stafford, but you’re certainly not going to win one without a guy like him. He can put a bad team on his backs and carry you forward to heights you flat out don’t deserve.

Obviously, this doesn’t really change the outlook of things for the Detroit Lions in the NFL futures market at BetOnline.ag. They’re still holding a Regular Season Win Total of just 8 games after going 9-7 SU last year and getting thrashed by Seattle in the first round of the playoffs. And they’re also +2800 to win the NFC.

At first glance, the +2800 odds the Detroit Lions are getting to win the NFC Championship aren’t that bad…until you realize that it’s the fifth worst in the entire conference.

WORST ODDS TO WIN NFC IN 2017
Team Odds
Detroit Lions +2800
Washington Redskins +2800
Los Angeles Rams +6600
Chicago Bears +8000
San Francisco 49ers +12500

It’s interesting that Detroit is tied with Washington in the above market for the simple reason that Kirk Cousins has long been seeking a deal worthy of his production. Cousins is by no means the talent that Stafford is, but he’s produced wins and been very consistent over the past two years. How this deal impacts Cousins next summer will be fascinating.

Stafford’s monster deal comes on the heels of Derek Carr signing a $125 million deal which as the previous record for an NFL player. The reason you do that if you’re Oakland is because your team is good enough to win a Super Bowl right now. The Raiders are the third choice in the AFC Championship market at BetOnline.ag with a value of +700 behind New England and Pittsburgh.

So why do this if you’re Detroit? Well for one, you know for a fact that it’s hard to find good quarterbacks in the modern era. You also remember that you’re the Detroit Lions, a team whose only notable free-agent singing in the last five years was Golden Tate.

Where this gets interesting is how Detroit manages the cap from here on out. Stafford’s deal is evenly loaded throughout every season with his cap hit equaling between $26.5M and $33M every year. That makes it a bit more difficult to sign proper stars to build around Stafford.

After all, while you may know a lot about Derek Carr’s contract, what you didn’t know is that he left a lot of money on the table so he could keep his offensive line intact.

The proper move for Detroit was to sign Stafford to a mega deal. That was going to happen. Whether the price they’ve paid is too steep will only be proven in the years to come. This contract offer was a reflection of both how hard it is to secure a top tier NFL quarterback, and the desperation franchises are facing to ensure that they have that type of player under center.