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SEC Betting Outlook
May 31, 2017
Sportsbook.ag predictably has Alabama listed as a -180 favorite to win the SEC Championship Game for the fourth straight year and the fifth time in six seasons. Obviously, from a gambling perspective, that expensive price offers zero for bettors.
If one wanted to win $500 on Alabama to get crowned in the first weekend of December in Atlanta yet again, he or she would have to put $900 at risk and wait for the payout for at least four months. Is that slice of your season bankroll really what you want unavailable to wager on individual games and adjusted future numbers throughout the year? I doubt it.
The next-shortest odds belong to LSU (+550, risk $100 to win $550). The Tigers aren’t the team to be interested in, either. I say this because they have question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and head coach. Also, and perhaps most important, the schedule doesn’t work at all in 2017.
Due to AD Joe Alleva’s utter arrogance and incompetence (remember his insistence on playing Florida in Baton Rouge even though the game had no major championship implications?), LSU has to play five SEC road games. Those contests include trips to Starkville, Gainesville, Oxford, Tuscaloosa and Knoxville. The draw from the SEC East is as tough as it gets with trips to The Swamp and Neyland Stadium. The home game are vs. Auburn (sandwiched between at Florida and at Ole Miss), vs. Arkansas (after at Alabama and before at UT) and vs. Texas A&M.
LSU does bring back Derrius Guice, the SEC’s best running back who will no longer have to share touches with Leonard Fournette. Athlon’s preseason magazine ranks LSU’s offensive line as the third-best in the SEC and the fifth-best in the nation. However, the Tigers return only nine total starters (five offense, four defense), and senior QB Danny Etling isn’t exactly installing fear in opposing defensive coordinators, especially with big-play threats Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural gone.
It says here that Auburn (7/1) is the best option to wager on to win the SEC. Why? This conversation centers around new starting QB Jarrett Stidham, who has the look of a future NFL signal caller. As a true freshman in 2015, Stidham was thrust into the starting lineup for Baylor midway through the season.
At the time, the Bears were unbeaten and ranked second in the nation. Considering the chaotic environment and individuals in that locker room run by Art Briles, the pressure on Stidham, a five-star recruit, as such a youngster was immense. So how did he respond?
Well, in his first career start at Kansas State, he threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns without an interception to lead Baylor to a 31-24 road victory. The next game was played at home in the rain versus 12th-ranked Oklahoma. The Sooners would prevail by a 44-34 count, but the blame for that defeat had to fall on the defense more than the offense.
Stidham responded well the following game, helping the Bears to a 45-35 win at Oklahoma State. However, he was injured in the second half. Stidham would return and split time with Chris Johnson under center in a 49-38 win over North Carolina in the bowl game. His season numbers included a 68.8 percent completion percentage, 1,265 passing yards and a 12/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
With Briles fired going into the 2016 campaign, Stidham opted to transfer. But he didn’t spend all of last year on the sidelines, as he played in the juco ranks and then enrolled at AU in January. With all of spring practice to learn Gus Malzahn’s offense, Stidham appears poised to thrive.
Although this will be Malzahn’s first time coaching a true passer as head coach at AU, Stidham still moves well. The Tigers return 14 total starters with seven on each side of the ball.
Kamryn Pettway was leading the SEC in rushing and Auburn was on a six-game winning streak when he injured his hamstring vs. Vanderbilt in early November (what a brutal Bad Beat ‘over’ backers absorbed when Pettway pulled up lame 20 yards shy of paydirt with no defender in his way against the Commodores). Nevertheless, he still ran for 1,224 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
I wasn’t a fan of the Kevin Steele DC hire going into 2016, but it certainly worked. Auburn finished seventh in the nation in scoring defense (17.1 points per game). This unit returns standout players like DL Marlon Davidson, CB Carlton Davis and LB Tre’ Williams.
Auburn’s draw from the East isn’t bad with a trip to Missouri for the league opener and a home date with Georgia in what will be a revenge game. The three other road games come in succession at LSU, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, but the trip to College Station comes after an open date.
Even if AU loses at LSU, it will have an excellent shot at being 6-1 in SEC play going into the regular-season finale at home against Alabama. In other words, even if Alabama is unbeaten in league action, the Tigers will be alive to win the West going into the Iron Bowl. My thought process here is Auburn +700 on the money line at home against the Crimson Tide sounds decent.
The next-shortest odds belong to SEC East schools – Georgia (+750), Florida (10/1) and Tennessee (15/1). The Volunteers lost talent galore, will be breaking in a new QB and dealing with Butch Jones’s hot-seat status. My point is that they aren’t even in the conversation, so we’ll focus on UGA and UF.
UF has just three SEC road assignments and it will likely be favored in all three – at Kentucky, at Missouri and at South Carolina. The draw from the West is a pair of home games vs. LSU and Texas A&M, which will be making its first visit to The Swamp since joining the conference.
The Gators return nine starters on offense and three on defense. They will have their most talent on offense in a long time, but the question remains at the QB position that’s been an issue since 2009. There’s reason for optimism, however. UF just added Notre Dame grad transfer Malik Zaire to the mix along with Feleipe Franks, who had a solid spring and was a four-star recruit who redshirted in ’16. Even the third-stringer, Luke Del Rio, has starting experience.
Despite just three starters returning, the defense will be fine. Most of the non-returning starters have seen playing time galore, including veterans like DE CeCe Jefferson, DT Taven Bryan and NT Khairi Clark. Sophomore CB Chauncey Gardner was MVP of the Outback Bowl and sophomore DE Zabari Zuniga was leading the SEC in sacks in early October of last season. Also, sophomore LBs Kylan Johnson and David Reese were starting as true freshmen in November after Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone went down with injuries.
Georgia has the QB with the best NFL potential in Jacob Eason, but I’m certainly not sold on Kirby Smart as a head coach yet. UGA went 8-5 in his first season, but it lost three home games to Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Bulldogs were slaughtered 45-14 at Ole Miss and also lost by double digits to UF.
UGA returns all 11 starters on defense and five on offense. The Bulldogs have a pair of big-time RBs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but they finished 11th in the SEC and 102nd in the nation in scoring last year (24.5 PPG).
Like UF, UGA has only three SEC road tilts – at UT, at Vandy and at Auburn. The other West foe is Mississippi State in the season opener at Sanford Stadium.
Odds to win the SEC East aren’t out yet. UGA will be the short favorite when those numbers are released. I recommended the Gators at +400 odds last year and they’ll likely be my pick to win the East again. However, I don’t give UF or UGA much of a chance to win the SEC Championship Game this year.
The longshots – Texas A&M (40/1), Arkansas (50/1), Mississippi State (60/1), Kentucky (80/1), South Carolina (80/1), Missouri (150/1) and Vanderbilt (150/1) – don’t appeal to me. Mississippi State and USC could be in the mix in late October if their talented QBs (Nick Fitzgerald and Jake Bentley) have monster seasons, but bettors are best off looking ‘over’ at their season win totals.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Jim McElwain certainly isn’t on the hot seat after leading UF to back-to-back trips to Atlanta in his first two seasons. With that said, his work on the recruiting trail hasn’t been overly impressive. Yes, UF has finished strong on Signing Day to salvage a pair of classes, including the 2017 haul that was ranked 11th nationally by most publications. But to give you an idea of the ho-hum evaluation of this 2017 class, it includes just ONE of the SEC’s Top-40 signees according to Athlon’s rankings.
-- McElwain has yet to announce any punishment for star WR Antonio Callaway, who was cited for marijuana possession a few weeks ago. In his first public statement earlier this week, McElwain said, “Look, it’s not something I’m happy about. And yet, you know what? I am going to help this guy and I’m going to continually try as I will all my players.” A suspension for the season opener vs Michigan at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX., would be costly.
-- Several offshore books had Michigan listed as a six or 6.5-point favorite against the Gators over the last several weeks. However, when the South Point Hotel in Las Vegas opened the Wolverines as 3.5-point ‘chalk’ last week, those offshores adjusted their numbers. 5Dimes.eu currently has Michigan favored by four, while Sportsbook.ag has taken the game off the board due to the uncertain status of Callaway.
-- Arkansas took a big blow when RB Rawleigh Williams decided to retire in early May due to multiple back injuries. Williams rushed for 1,360 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC in ’16.
-- South Point has the following lines for Week 1 SEC games: Alabama -5.5 vs. FSU (Atlanta), Georgia -14 vs. Appalachian State, Tennessee -4 vs. Georgia Tech (Atlanta), UCLA -3.5 vs. Texas A&M, Auburn -36 vs. Georgia Southern and LSU -11 vs. BYU (Houston).
May 31, 2017
Sportsbook.ag predictably has Alabama listed as a -180 favorite to win the SEC Championship Game for the fourth straight year and the fifth time in six seasons. Obviously, from a gambling perspective, that expensive price offers zero for bettors.
If one wanted to win $500 on Alabama to get crowned in the first weekend of December in Atlanta yet again, he or she would have to put $900 at risk and wait for the payout for at least four months. Is that slice of your season bankroll really what you want unavailable to wager on individual games and adjusted future numbers throughout the year? I doubt it.
The next-shortest odds belong to LSU (+550, risk $100 to win $550). The Tigers aren’t the team to be interested in, either. I say this because they have question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and head coach. Also, and perhaps most important, the schedule doesn’t work at all in 2017.
Due to AD Joe Alleva’s utter arrogance and incompetence (remember his insistence on playing Florida in Baton Rouge even though the game had no major championship implications?), LSU has to play five SEC road games. Those contests include trips to Starkville, Gainesville, Oxford, Tuscaloosa and Knoxville. The draw from the SEC East is as tough as it gets with trips to The Swamp and Neyland Stadium. The home game are vs. Auburn (sandwiched between at Florida and at Ole Miss), vs. Arkansas (after at Alabama and before at UT) and vs. Texas A&M.
LSU does bring back Derrius Guice, the SEC’s best running back who will no longer have to share touches with Leonard Fournette. Athlon’s preseason magazine ranks LSU’s offensive line as the third-best in the SEC and the fifth-best in the nation. However, the Tigers return only nine total starters (five offense, four defense), and senior QB Danny Etling isn’t exactly installing fear in opposing defensive coordinators, especially with big-play threats Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural gone.
It says here that Auburn (7/1) is the best option to wager on to win the SEC. Why? This conversation centers around new starting QB Jarrett Stidham, who has the look of a future NFL signal caller. As a true freshman in 2015, Stidham was thrust into the starting lineup for Baylor midway through the season.
At the time, the Bears were unbeaten and ranked second in the nation. Considering the chaotic environment and individuals in that locker room run by Art Briles, the pressure on Stidham, a five-star recruit, as such a youngster was immense. So how did he respond?
Well, in his first career start at Kansas State, he threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns without an interception to lead Baylor to a 31-24 road victory. The next game was played at home in the rain versus 12th-ranked Oklahoma. The Sooners would prevail by a 44-34 count, but the blame for that defeat had to fall on the defense more than the offense.
Stidham responded well the following game, helping the Bears to a 45-35 win at Oklahoma State. However, he was injured in the second half. Stidham would return and split time with Chris Johnson under center in a 49-38 win over North Carolina in the bowl game. His season numbers included a 68.8 percent completion percentage, 1,265 passing yards and a 12/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
With Briles fired going into the 2016 campaign, Stidham opted to transfer. But he didn’t spend all of last year on the sidelines, as he played in the juco ranks and then enrolled at AU in January. With all of spring practice to learn Gus Malzahn’s offense, Stidham appears poised to thrive.
Although this will be Malzahn’s first time coaching a true passer as head coach at AU, Stidham still moves well. The Tigers return 14 total starters with seven on each side of the ball.
Kamryn Pettway was leading the SEC in rushing and Auburn was on a six-game winning streak when he injured his hamstring vs. Vanderbilt in early November (what a brutal Bad Beat ‘over’ backers absorbed when Pettway pulled up lame 20 yards shy of paydirt with no defender in his way against the Commodores). Nevertheless, he still ran for 1,224 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
I wasn’t a fan of the Kevin Steele DC hire going into 2016, but it certainly worked. Auburn finished seventh in the nation in scoring defense (17.1 points per game). This unit returns standout players like DL Marlon Davidson, CB Carlton Davis and LB Tre’ Williams.
Auburn’s draw from the East isn’t bad with a trip to Missouri for the league opener and a home date with Georgia in what will be a revenge game. The three other road games come in succession at LSU, at Arkansas and at Texas A&M, but the trip to College Station comes after an open date.
Even if AU loses at LSU, it will have an excellent shot at being 6-1 in SEC play going into the regular-season finale at home against Alabama. In other words, even if Alabama is unbeaten in league action, the Tigers will be alive to win the West going into the Iron Bowl. My thought process here is Auburn +700 on the money line at home against the Crimson Tide sounds decent.
The next-shortest odds belong to SEC East schools – Georgia (+750), Florida (10/1) and Tennessee (15/1). The Volunteers lost talent galore, will be breaking in a new QB and dealing with Butch Jones’s hot-seat status. My point is that they aren’t even in the conversation, so we’ll focus on UGA and UF.
UF has just three SEC road assignments and it will likely be favored in all three – at Kentucky, at Missouri and at South Carolina. The draw from the West is a pair of home games vs. LSU and Texas A&M, which will be making its first visit to The Swamp since joining the conference.
The Gators return nine starters on offense and three on defense. They will have their most talent on offense in a long time, but the question remains at the QB position that’s been an issue since 2009. There’s reason for optimism, however. UF just added Notre Dame grad transfer Malik Zaire to the mix along with Feleipe Franks, who had a solid spring and was a four-star recruit who redshirted in ’16. Even the third-stringer, Luke Del Rio, has starting experience.
Despite just three starters returning, the defense will be fine. Most of the non-returning starters have seen playing time galore, including veterans like DE CeCe Jefferson, DT Taven Bryan and NT Khairi Clark. Sophomore CB Chauncey Gardner was MVP of the Outback Bowl and sophomore DE Zabari Zuniga was leading the SEC in sacks in early October of last season. Also, sophomore LBs Kylan Johnson and David Reese were starting as true freshmen in November after Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone went down with injuries.
Georgia has the QB with the best NFL potential in Jacob Eason, but I’m certainly not sold on Kirby Smart as a head coach yet. UGA went 8-5 in his first season, but it lost three home games to Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Tennessee. The Bulldogs were slaughtered 45-14 at Ole Miss and also lost by double digits to UF.
UGA returns all 11 starters on defense and five on offense. The Bulldogs have a pair of big-time RBs in Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, but they finished 11th in the SEC and 102nd in the nation in scoring last year (24.5 PPG).
Like UF, UGA has only three SEC road tilts – at UT, at Vandy and at Auburn. The other West foe is Mississippi State in the season opener at Sanford Stadium.
Odds to win the SEC East aren’t out yet. UGA will be the short favorite when those numbers are released. I recommended the Gators at +400 odds last year and they’ll likely be my pick to win the East again. However, I don’t give UF or UGA much of a chance to win the SEC Championship Game this year.
The longshots – Texas A&M (40/1), Arkansas (50/1), Mississippi State (60/1), Kentucky (80/1), South Carolina (80/1), Missouri (150/1) and Vanderbilt (150/1) – don’t appeal to me. Mississippi State and USC could be in the mix in late October if their talented QBs (Nick Fitzgerald and Jake Bentley) have monster seasons, but bettors are best off looking ‘over’ at their season win totals.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Jim McElwain certainly isn’t on the hot seat after leading UF to back-to-back trips to Atlanta in his first two seasons. With that said, his work on the recruiting trail hasn’t been overly impressive. Yes, UF has finished strong on Signing Day to salvage a pair of classes, including the 2017 haul that was ranked 11th nationally by most publications. But to give you an idea of the ho-hum evaluation of this 2017 class, it includes just ONE of the SEC’s Top-40 signees according to Athlon’s rankings.
-- McElwain has yet to announce any punishment for star WR Antonio Callaway, who was cited for marijuana possession a few weeks ago. In his first public statement earlier this week, McElwain said, “Look, it’s not something I’m happy about. And yet, you know what? I am going to help this guy and I’m going to continually try as I will all my players.” A suspension for the season opener vs Michigan at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX., would be costly.
-- Several offshore books had Michigan listed as a six or 6.5-point favorite against the Gators over the last several weeks. However, when the South Point Hotel in Las Vegas opened the Wolverines as 3.5-point ‘chalk’ last week, those offshores adjusted their numbers. 5Dimes.eu currently has Michigan favored by four, while Sportsbook.ag has taken the game off the board due to the uncertain status of Callaway.
-- Arkansas took a big blow when RB Rawleigh Williams decided to retire in early May due to multiple back injuries. Williams rushed for 1,360 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC in ’16.
-- South Point has the following lines for Week 1 SEC games: Alabama -5.5 vs. FSU (Atlanta), Georgia -14 vs. Appalachian State, Tennessee -4 vs. Georgia Tech (Atlanta), UCLA -3.5 vs. Texas A&M, Auburn -36 vs. Georgia Southern and LSU -11 vs. BYU (Houston).
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