Common opponents PATS/PANTHERS

[wizardofoddz]

New England
8-1 SU
6-2-1 ATS
5-4 Over the posted total (average total 38½)

Saturday 1/10/2004 ConfSemi Home Tennessee W 17-14 L -6.5 U 34
Sunday 12/14/2003 Week 15 Home Jacksonville W 27-13 W -6.5 O 33
Sunday 11/30/2003 Week 13 Away Indy W 38-34 W 3 O 43
Sunday 11/23/2003 Week 12 Away Houston W 23-20 L -5.5 O 37
Sun. Night 11/16/2003 Week 11 Home Dallas W 12-0 W -4.5 U 35
Sunday 10/12/2003 Week 6 Home N.Y. Giants W 17-6 W -2.5 U 42.5
Sunday 10/5/2003 Week 5 Home Tennessee W 38-30 W 0 O 40
Sunday 9/28/2003 Week 4 Away Washington L 17-20 P 3 U 43.5
Sunday 9/14/2003 Week 2 Away Philadelphia W 31-10 W 4 O 38

Carolina
6-4 SU
4-6 ATS
7-2-1 Over the posted total (average total 36)

Sun. Night 1/18/2004 ConfFinal Away Philadelphia W 14-3 W 4 U 36.5
Saturday 1/3/2004 WildCard Home Dallas W 29-10 W -3 O 33.5
Sun. Night 12/28/2003 Week 17 Away N.Y. Giants W 37-24 W -4.5 O 34.5
Sunday 11/30/2003 Week 13 Home Philadelphia L 16-25 L -1.5 O 36.5
Sunday 11/23/2003 Week 12 Away Dallas L 20-24 L 3 O 33
Sunday 11/16/2003 Week 11 Home Washington W 20-17 L -6 P 37
Sunday 11/2/2003 Week 9 Away Houston L 10-14 L -6.5 U 37
Sunday 10/19/2003 Week 7 Home Tennessee L 17-37 L -1 O 37.5
Sunday 10/12/2003 Week 6 Away Indy W 23-20 W 4 O 37.5
Sunday 9/7/2003 Week 1 Home Jacksonville W 24-23 L -4 O 35.5

When looking at this match up like this, Should New England be a 7 point favorite?
When looking at the totals posted for common opponents, does it look like the odds makers show more respect for Carolina's defense?

[letswin]

Wiz, How much weight should the ATS factor have?

NE 5-2-1
Car 4-6

Overall

NE 14-3 (amazing)
Car 9-10

Been thinking about this factor all week.

[wizardofoddz]

Wiz, How much weight should the ATS factor have?

The line is used to attract bettors to a side or keep them off of a side. This seems to be working on this game, by what I have posted here as "common opponents" it looks like Pats should be a 1½-3 point favorite, as far as past ATS numbers go, I don't think it has any bearing on this game.

[wizardofoddz]

[wizardofoddz]

come'on guys INPUT

[FATCAT]

vegas wants people on Carolina. All I hear is talk about carolina D. Makes me like the Pats even more.:D

[wayne1218]

wiz i really like the preparation here with N.E.


They just don't beat themselves and i'm watching TV and reading around the web. I'm seeing about 70% on Carolina and people are saying low scoring and how can you not take the 7 with the Panthers?

I see N.E. and the over. Jake is nice but he keeps them in games more than he wins them. I think the Pats will really confuse him today.

I thought St Louis was OVER RATED and Philly lays down every year when they did.

Looking at what N.E. has done this year (especially on the road) and the fact that everyone thought Tenn. or Indy would kill them proves their just not being taken seriously.


I just Carolina has had fun all week enjoying their moment and N.E. has been very quiet, business like, and focused.

GL

[maxell]

Huge advantage to Carolina in the punting game! Sauerbraun's booming punts could leave New England with a long field more times than not. Brady over his posted passing yards total in the props? Like Carolina plus the points but NE wins the game outright.

[letswin]

I remember when in the '90's Buffalo was always catching points
(in the super bowls) even with their potent offense...I learned a
hard lesson then.

[wizardofoddz]

wayne

I pretty much agree with you. It looks like the books have the fishing gear out. They hang that 7 out there and everyone that likes the Pats are even saying, Pats win, but don't cover the number. The reason the Pats are 14-3 ATS is because the oddz makers couldn't get the number right all year.....

[The Baron]

i'm taking carolina for 2 reasons...

1) NE has not faced a D Line like Carolina's throughout the playoffs. Brady will not have the time to sit back and camp out waiting for someone to get open.

2) Emotions. Don't forget that Carolina has 2 players with terminal illnesses that have them very motivated. Throughout the playoffs, they have worn Sam Mills number on their t-shirts under their jerseys. They will play all out.

While everyone talks about how solid NE is, this is just another week people are underrating Carolina - Solid Defense, Solid running game = Winner

NE = Solid defense, so-so running game

[Tony Vegas]

carolina

I hate that everyone is saying that NE wins but doesn't cover but I think the Panthers win on the field!! If you match-up the teams unit by unit, New England has the edge in QBs, secondary, and coaching which are big but Carolina is better on DL and OL while having way better WRs and RBs. Special teams also favor the Panthers. What makes me wonder though is how is NE -7 when if this was a regular seem game in Foxboro the line would probably be lower. The only reasoning I have is that most people that bet today don't be all year and will naturally bet the favorite so Vegas wanted to even out their money!! Good luck Wiz!

[wizardofoddz]

Tony

These teams are so even on paper it is scary. The line seems to be begging for Carolina money

[OSU-BUCKS]

[SIZE=4]new
england

[UGAn2004]

I agree. I think you have to go with the points.

It seems as though everyone know the outcome. Pats win by three or so. I think you have to take the points here. Carolina's front four will put a lot of presure on Brady and Carolina is excellent at stopping the run and the Pats have a mediocre running game at best. Which will force them to pass the ball but will allow Carolina to Blitz hard and often. I like the Prop bet of over 4.5 sacks in the game.