Announcement

**Udog** · 01-04-2017, 11:23 AM

Giants at Packers best matchup as opening lines released for wild-card weekend

"(Giants at Packers) will no doubt be the most popular game at the betting windows.”

It took until the final minutes of the final game of the regular season, late Sunday night, but the seedings and the matchups are all set for wild-card weekend next Saturday and Sunday. We talk with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, about the opening lines on the quartet of postseason contests.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (Open: -2.5; Move: -3)

Oakland went into its regular-season finale at Denver with a chance to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed, stick at the No. 2 seed or drop to the No. 5 seed. The Raiders, minus star quarterback Derek Carr (broken leg), ended up with the worst of those scenarios. New starter Matt McGloin was hurt in the first half Sunday, rookie Connor Cook finished it out, and Oakland never got going in a 24-6 loss as a 1-point underdog.

So a team that went 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) will be on the road as a wild card against AFC South champion Houston, in a 4:35 p.m. Eastern kickoff on Saturday.

The Texans (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) lost to Tennessee 24-17 as a 3-point road ‘dog Sunday. Despite that loss – along with that of new starting QB Tom Savage to a first-half concussion, putting erstwhile starter Brock Osweiler back on the field – the Texans opened -2.5 at the Superbook and were quickly bet up to 3 late Sunday night.

“Oakland looks defeated, but we’ve seen this Texans team lose this game before,” Kornegay said, alluding to last year’s wild-card round, in which host Houston got blown out by Kansas City 30-0 catching 3 points.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (Open: -7; Move: -7.5)

Seattle alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven weeks, but it was still enough to win the NFC West and earn the No. 3 seed. On Sunday, the Seahawks (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) erased an early 14-3 deficit to lowly San Francisco and held on for a 25-23 victory as a hefty 11.5-point road chalk.

Detroit could have been that No. 3 seed, or at least the No. 4 seed, were it not for an 0-3 SU and ATS skid to end the regular season. On Sunday night, in that aforementioned final game, the Lions fell to Green Bay 31-24 as a 3.5-point home pup. That dropped the Lions (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) to the No. 6 seed as a wild card.
Much like the Texans line, this one went up a half-point shortly after it was posted, to Seattle -7.5 for Saturday’s 8:15 p.m. Eastern matchup.

“Detroit looks like Oakland, except they still have their starting quarterback,” Kornegay said, while noting the Seahawks’ inconsistent play of late. “Seattle isn’t the team we’ve seen before. The Seahawks are definitely vulnerable.”

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (Open: -9.5; Move -10)

Pittsburgh is arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, along with AFC No. 1 seed New England and perhaps Green Bay. The Steelers (11-5, 9-6-1) were 4-5 in mid-November, but haven’t lost since then, ripping off seven consecutive wins (5-1-1 ATS). In Sunday’s meaningless finale, Pittsburgh rested Ben Roethlisberger and fell behind Cleveland 14-0, but rallied for a 27-24 overtime victory to push as a 3-point home favorite.

Miami (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) made a 7-1 SU run to clinch a wild-card spot after Week 16, then got blasted by New England in Week 17, losing 35-14 as a 7.5-point home pup. The Superbook expects it to be tough sledding to draw Miami money this week, even with the high opening number for Sunday’s 1 p.m. Eastern kick.

“I might have to give out a free beer with every Dolphins bet to attract money on them,” Kornegay said. “I stocked up and have my 12-pack ready!”

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Open -4.5; Move: -3.5)

Several weeks ago, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers intimated his 4-5 team could win out. Then the Packers did just that. On Sunday, the Pack completed a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS surge by beating Detroit 31-24 giving 3.5 points on the road to clinch the NFC North crown at 10-6 SU (9-6-1 ATS).

Meanwhile, New York went on an 8-1 SU spree (7-2 ATS) from mid-October to mid-December. The Giants (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) slipped up at Philadelphia in Week 16, but with nothing on the line Sunday, they capped the season with a 19-10 victory at Washington as a 9-point underdog.

“Best matchup of wild-card weekend could be a doozy,” Kornegay said of this 4:30 p.m. Eastern Sunday clash. “The Giants have a lot of confidence going into Green Bay. The Packers will have to overcome injuries to defensive backs (Quinten Rollins, Makinton Dorleant). This will no doubt be the most popular game at the betting windows.”

**Udog** · 01-04-2017, 11:23 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these NFL wild-card lines are going to move

Early betting has favored the Dolphins, with the public perhaps thinking that any time a playoff team is getting double-digits, it’s worth a sniff.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Green Bay (-3.5)

Since mid-October the Giants have been one of the best teams in the league, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. The surge started, coincidentally, after New York went into Lambeau and laid an egg in Week 5 – being held without a touchdown until late in the game and passing for only 178 yards against a Packers defense that gives up 270 yards per game through the air. NY’s problem is that the Packers are also playing better. The NFC North champs come in with six straight wins (three of which came against playoff teams), and the Packers have scored more than 30 points in each of their last four games. This one could tilt toward the Giants if they can get to Aaron Rodgers, but NY was just middle of the pack in total team sacks this season (34). With equal money on both teams, the 3.5 line is unlikely to budge.

Game to wait on

Miami at Pittsburgh (-10)

Early betting has favored the Dolphins, with the public perhaps thinking that any time a playoff team is getting double-digits, it’s worth a sniff. Yes, Miami did look awful against the Patriots in their final regular-season game – but the Patriots (8-0 on the road this season) tend to do that to opponents. And Pittsburgh’s defense is nowhere near as good as New England’s, so Miami should at least be able to move the ball against the Steelers’ mediocre D. Pittsburgh will no doubt be game-planning all week in an effort to prevent a repeat of their Oct. 16 game in Miami, when Jay Ajayi went off for 204 yards and Miami won easily. There are rumblings that starting QB Ryan Tannehill might be back for this one, and there might not be a decision until late in the week, or even just prior to kickoff. So unless you’re a huge Matt Moore fan, it might be a good idea to hang on for a bit before wagering.

Total to watch

Oakland at Houston (37)

Anyone with a spare quarterback is asked to contact the Raiders or Texans immediately. Oakland is down to QB No. 3 (rookie Connor Cook) after Sunday’s injury to backup Matt McGloin. Houston is somewhat better off, with backup Tom Savage apparently OK after suffering a head injury on Sunday. Oddsmakers don’t figure any QB will light it up too much this weekend and have set one of the lowest totals of the year. One book has the number as low at 36.5, which is unheard of in today’s NFL.

**Udog** · 01-04-2017, 11:24 AM

NFL Wild-Card Weekend lines that make you go hmmm...

The Seahawks have been inconsistent all season, especially against the spread. Should Seattle bettors be worried in the Wild-Card round?

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL Wild-Card schedule and tells you why these postseason lines are making him go “hmmm…”

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-3.5, 36.5)

This line indicates a Houston win of 20-17. This is a tough game to dissect as Oakland’s success or failure lands on third-string shoulders that are unproven and have little track record.

What we do know is that Houston does not score much and both teams have good defenses. Most of the betting public gets scared of going Under in general but there are reasons a total is very low. Most times, it’s due to inclement weather. However, Houston failed to score 37 points in four of its past six games overall. Facing an Oakland team that failed to score 37 points in its last three road games overall, sends a strong trending flag where we are going with this one.

I made this total closer to 34 or 35. Our only hesitation here would be unwanted defensive bombs (fumbles and interceptions turning into immediate scores) but they’re usually far and few and we just can’t count on those.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 42.5)

We we find another game that will favor the bookmaker over the bettor in this one.

Seattle’s inconsistencies have bettors wondering which team is going to show up: the one we know, or the one that’s been playing the past 16 games? That observation alone has wondering why the spread is so high. I made this no higher than -7.

Seattle has lost four of its past six against the spread with the only caveat being that the Seahawks pretty much knew they were going to win this rather weak division well in advance. But being able to just flick a switch on, particularly when you are playing a quality team playing for their lives, seems like a stretch here.

Detroit did not finish well but in its defense the Lions did play some tough teams (Giants, Cowboys, Packers) with the first two on the road. Bettors aren’t asking them to win here, they’re just asking them to hang around. And with +8 (and even +8.5 out there) we liken this battle of two standout defenses to keep this under control. Detroit backers should take the visitors with as many points as you can get and maybe – just maybe - we could see the first upset of the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 47)

This one seems like a no-brainer. Miami’s season looks to be over here.

The line is high for a reason and we all know why. Miami won’t move on with QB Matt Moore. He’s now going to be facing tough teams in tough venues. A telltale sign for this matchup is looking at the Dolphins’ last five games. Miami picked up wins against the weaker teams (Cardinals, Jets, Bills) and lost by an average of 26 points against the tough teams (Ravens and Patriots).

I made this line closer to -12 bordering -13, so 10 seems like a gift. My vision is a 24-3 or 30-13 final score – a game we won’t have to worry about the backdoor cover. Fans of the favorite should roll with the Steelers and let the wiseguys finesse a loss, taking the big number and keeping the line down for the rest of us.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-5, 44)

This is a game of polar opposites, when sizing up each team’s offensive sets and game flow. That’s mostly reflected by each team’s results in respect to their totals.

Green Bay has gone Over in eight of its past 10 games, most notably the past four when scoring 38, 30, 38 and 31 points. The Giants have been Under in seven of their last eight games, while scoring 14, 10, 17, 19 and 19 in their last five games overall.

Be it as it may, we liken the trend of the Packers’ overall big-game plays and I don’t think the Giants are going to be able to hang with the Green Bay’s offense. I made this game -6.5 and even -7 (Even) so you can feel pretty confident about liking the Packers in this spot. They’re hot, they’re at home, and they’ve beaten the Giants here by seven points earlier in the year. What’s not to like?

**Udog** · 01-04-2017, 11:24 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Wild-Card Round

Saturday, January 7

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OAKLAND (12 - 4) at HOUSTON (9 - 7) - 1/7/2017, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (9 - 7) at SEATTLE (10 - 5 - 1) - 1/7/2017, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 84-112 ATS (-39.2 Units) in road games since 1992.
DETROIT is 84-112 ATS (-39.2 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
DETROIT is 63-89 ATS (-34.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 130-168 ATS (-54.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 8

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MIAMI (10 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (11 - 5) - 1/8/2017, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 87-62 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (11 - 5) at GREEN BAY (10 - 6) - 1/8/2017, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 69-41 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wild-Card Round

Sat – Jan. 7

Oakland at Houston, 4:35 PM ET
Oakland: 11-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Houston: 14-3 OVER in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Detroit at Seattle, 4:40 PM ET
Detroit: 5-19 ATS in road games against NFC West division opponents
Seattle: 34-19 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Sun – Jan. 8

Miami at Pittsburgh, 1:05 PM ET
Miami: 3-13 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Pittsburgh: 9-1 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points

NY Giants at Green Bay, 4:40 PM ET
New York: 7-1 UNDER as an underdog
Green Bay: 10-1 ATS off a division game

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild-Card Round

Saturday's games
Raiders (12-4) @ Texans (9-7)— Two teams with QB issues; rookie 3rd-stringer Cook is making his first NFL start this week- he was 14-21/150 in relief in Denver LW, his NFL debut. Raiders won 8 of last 10 games but loss of QB Carr and loss to Broncos LW cost them first-round bye and any real chance of getting to Super Bowl. Oakland (-6.5) beat Houston 27-20 in a Monday night game in Mexico City Nov 21 (week after Raiders’ bye). Oakland is 6-2 on road, 3-2 as road underdog but that was with Carr playing. Osweiler starts at QB for Texans, after he was benched for #2 QB Savage, who then got a concussion. Houston won three of last four games, is 7-1 at home, 3-2-1 as home favorite. Oakland is in playoffs for first time since losing Super Bowl 14 years ago. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in last six years. Home side won #4-5 seed AFC game four of last five years.

Lions (9-7) @ Seahawks (10-5-1)— Detroit lost its last two games to miss out on winning NFC North for first time since 1993; they’ve won one playoff game since 1957, are in playoffs for 3rd time in last 17 years. Stafford has an injured finger on throwing hand; Detroit scored 17 pts/game in losing last three games, were -7 in turnovers in last four. Lions have trailed in 4th quarter in every game but one this season; they’re 3-5 on road, 3-4 as road dogs. Seahawks split last six games, are 4-3-1 as home favorites this year- they played only four playoff teams this year, going 3-1. Detroit lost weird 13-10 night game in Seattle LY, when Seahawks scored controversial late TD. Lions are 5-8 overall vs Seattle, 1-6 here, with only win back in 1999. Under is 8-2 in Detroit’s last ten games, 1-4 in Seattle’s last five. Road team is 4-4 in NFC #3-6 game last eight years; underdogs covered four of last six years.

Sunday's games
Dolphins (10-6) @ Steelers (11-5)— Dolphins were 1-4 when Steelers went to South Beach and lost 30-15; TY was 474-297, Pitt had only 15 first downs. Fish are 4-4 on road, 3-3 as road underdogs, but 4 of last 5 teams they visited either fired their coach or half their assistants. Miami is in playoffs for first time since ’08; their last playoff win was in 2000. Dolphins have rookie coach, backup QB starting; they’re 9-2 in last 11 games, losing mostly meaningless game to Patriots LW. Pittsburgh is in playoffs for 3rd year in row and 11th time in last 16 years; they won last seven games overall but covered only one of last five at home. Three of last four Steeler games went over total; last six Miami games (and 9 of last 10) went over. Miami is 2-1 all-time vs Steelers in playoff games, but last one of those was in ’84. Road team won AFC #3-6 game last three years and six of last eight; underdogs covered five of last seven.

Giants (11-5) @ Packers (10-6)— Giants won playoff games in Lambeau in both 2007/2011, so have to be confident here. New Jersey (+7) lost 23-16 at Lambeau back in Week 4, running ball 15 times for 43 yards in game where Packers outgained them by 189 yards. Green Bay allowed 153 points in a 4-game midseason skid, then recovered, won its last six games; they’re 6-2 at home, 4-2-1 as home favorites. New Jersey went 9-2 after the Lambeau loss; they’re 4-4 on road, 1-3-1 as a road underdog, with only cover LW in meaningless win over Redskins. Giants held five of last seven opponents under 17 points; they’re 2-5 this season when allowing 23+ points, 9-0 when allowing less than 23. Last four Green Bay games went over total; under is 7-1 in Giants’ last eight games. Road team won NFC #4-5 seed game three of last four years, but favorites covered four of last five.

NFL

Wild-Card Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 7

5:35 PM
OAKLAND vs. HOUSTON
Oakland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 12 games at home

9:15 PM
DETROIT vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 10 games
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Seattle17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games

Sunday, January 8

2:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PITTSBURGH
Miami is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Miami
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

5:40 PM
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Green Bay
NY Giants are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games
Green Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 01-06-2017, 08:48 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild-Card Round

Saturday, January 7

Detroit @ Seattle

Game 103-104
January 7, 2017 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
124.930
Seattle
139.814
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 15
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 8
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-8); Over

Oakland @ Houston

Game 101-102
January 7, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
133.061
Houston
130.602
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
36 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Over

Sunday, January 8

NY Giants @ Green Bay

Game 107-108
January 8, 2017 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
136.020
Green Bay
137.517
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 5
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+5); Under

Miami @ Pittsburgh

Game 105-106
January 8, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
126.164
Pittsburgh
143.279
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 17
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 10
46
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-10); Over

**Udog** · 01-07-2017, 09:29 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card edition

Rodgers finished the year with 2,183 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions in eight home starts.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-4, 36.5)

Raiders' strong first-half D vs. Texans' rough offensive starts

The Raiders and Texans do battle this weekend in a game even the most die-hard NFL fans are having a hard time getting jazzed about. Neither team is playing particularly well at the moment, with the Raiders having stumbled into the postseason on the tide of a 24-6 loss to the Denver Broncos and the Texans having prevailed in one of the worst divisions in football. But if season trends continue, Oakland should find itself in great shape at the half - which could spell disaster for favored Houston.

The Raiders did a lot of things well in what was a breakout season for the perennial AFC doormat, and first-half scoring defense is surprisingly near the top of that list. While Oakland coughed up 17 first-half points in last week's uninspiring loss in Denver, that still wasn't enough to knock the Raiders out of the top-10 in points allowed prior to the half (10.6). Six of the nine teams ahead of them are also in the postseason, so they find themselves in great company despite their late-season struggles.

As for the Texans, they were downright miserable in the first halves of games over the course of the regular season (and yes, you can probably blame quarterback Brock Osweiler for most of that.) No team in the NFL managed fewer first half points per game than Houston (7.6), thanks to a three-game season-closing stretch in which the Texans managed a total of five points prior to half. If Oakland gets up early, the Texans might not have the firepower to make a game of it.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Lamar Miller

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 43)

Lions' third-down D struggles vs. Seahawks' drive shutdowns

Welcome back to the postseason, Detroit! Enjoy your road tilt against a Seattle team that boasts one of the top home-field advantages in sports. The Lions are certainly in tough having to travel three time zones to face Seattle, but that might not even be the worst of their problems. Detroit was one of the worst teams in the NFL during the season when it came to keeping opponents from extending drives, and they're facing a Seahawks unit that was far stingier on third downs.

Detroit generated plenty of early-season buzz thanks to an elite passing offense led by quarterback Matthew Stafford. But the defense never did get untracked, particularly on third down. The Lions allowed opponents to convert an alarming 45.5 percent of their third-down situations into first downs or TDs, ahead of only the Washington Redskins (46.6%). That number climbed thanks to a 50-percent opponent conversion rate over the final three games of the season, worst in the NFL over that span.

Seattle wasn't exactly a world-beater in the category over the course of 2016, ranking a modest 14th with a 38.9-percent opponent success rate on third downs. But down the stretch, no team shut down more third-down situations than the Seahawks, who limited teams to a minuscule 18.8-percent success rate over the final three games. Stafford and Co. can't afford to get stalled out on third down, with Seattle more than capable of doing plenty of damage on the other side of the ball.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Matthew Stafford

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 47)

Dolphins' 1Q and 4Q letdowns vs. Steelers' early and late magic

Few people are giving the Dolphins much of a chance in their AFC Wild Card showdown with a Steelers team that could afford to give its three offensive studs a much-needed Week 17 respite. That alone is cause for concern for Dolphins, but they'll also need to consider that Miami was one of the worst teams in football at keeping teams off the scoreboard in the first and fourth quarters - and is matched up against a roster that had no trouble beating teams down early and late.

For all those lauding an often-stout Miami defense that helped halt an eight-year playoff drought, the numbers suggest that the Dolphins' D wasn't as strong as some might think. No team allowed more first-quarter points per game during the regular season (6.9), and Miami was only slightly more respectable over the final 15 minutes of games, ranking tied for 24th at 7.3 points allowed per contest. The latter stat is most disconcerting when it comes to evaluating a team at playoff time.

The Steelers have no such problems; despite a late-season swoon that saw Pittsburgh score just 10 combined first-quarter points over its final three games, it still ranked fourth in the NFL in first-quarter scoring (5.9), behind only Atlanta, New England and Cincinnati. And the Steelers' offense saved its best for last, ranking second in the NFL at 9.1 fourth-quarter points per contest. With its offensive stars rested and home-field advantage in its pocket, Pittsburgh should make things miserable for Miami.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Le'Veon Bell

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 44.5)

Eli's road passing woes vs. Rodgers' home dominance

The Giants and Packers face off this weekend in an NFC Wild Card tilt that could come down to how well the Packers' offensive line can protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers against a suddenly elite Giants pass rush. But those who have seen Rodgers and the Packers surgically dismantle opponents down the stretch would be wise not to underestimate him - especially in comparison to New York counterpart Eli Manning, whose road showing this year has been downright abysmal.

It was an up-and-down year for Manning, who surpassed 4,000 passing yards but had just 26 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. He was particularly ordinary away from MetLife Stadium, managing just 1,788 yards through the air with 10 TDs and seven INTs. His 78.0 rating on the road ranked the Giants 24th among the 32 NFL teams, with only two other playoff teams faring worse. That includes a Week 5 loss in Green Bay in which Manning was held to just 199 passing yards and a score.

If that weren't enough to send Giants fans into a panic, there's Rodgers' home splits, which are once again among the most absurd in the league. Despite a slow start, Rodgers finished the year with 2,183 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions in eight home starts. His 106.5 rating at Lambeau Field ranks him sixth in that category league-wide, with four of the five quarterbacks ahead of him having reached the postseason. With such a huge advantage at quarterback, Green Bay is in great position to advance.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Aaron Rodgers

**Udog** · 01-07-2017, 09:39 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 7

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Raiders at Texans
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With Derek Carr out Khalil Mack will have to lead the Raiders in rallying around rookie Connor Cook. Oakland is currently a 3.5-point dog.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (3.5, 36.5)

The highest-profile position on the field also will be the one surrounded by the most question marks when the Houston Texans host the Oakland Raiders on Saturday afternoon in the opening game of Wild Card Weekend. Oakland is down to its third-string quarterback in rookie Connor Cook while Houston turns back to Brock Osweiler, who was benched three weeks ago.

The rematch from Week 11, when Oakland rallied for a 27-20 win in Mexico behind two fourth-quarter touchdown passes by Derek Carr, will have a decidedly different look after Carr broke his leg in Week 15 and backup Matt McGloin injured his left shoulder in the regular-season finale. That leaves Cook in line to become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have his first career start occur in the postseason, a welcome development for the AFC South champions' top-ranked defense. “That’s great, I hope we blitz him all game," Houston defensive end Jadeveon Clowney told reporters. Osweiler started the first 15 games for the Texans before losing his job to Tom Savage, who suffered a concussion last week to give Osweiler a second chance.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (0) - Texans (0.5) + home field (-3) = Texans -2.5

LINE HISTORY: The Texans opened as field goal favorites and that number was bet as high as 4, before fading to 3.5 late in the week. The total opened at 37, has bounced back and forth between 37 and 36.5 all week, currently settling at 36.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

WHAT BOOKS SAY - "Bettors began taking the Texans when news broke that Cook was starting for Oakland. We moved to -3.5 and then -4, but took some sharp action on that number so quickly adjusted back to -3.5. The total has dropped a full point down to 36.5 and we’ve got almost 75 percent of the handle on the under."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is the first time in NFL Playoff history during the Super Bowl era (past 51 years) that a quarterback will be starting a playoff game after not starting a single regular season game during his career. Oakland's third-string rookie QB Connor Cook played the majority of the game last week at Denver, after Matt McGloin was injured. Cook was decent, completing 67% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass with a 83.4 QB rating. Cook has only taken the majority of the snaps in one other game this season and that was during the Preseason in Week 4 against Seattle's backups. Cook was terrible in that game, averaging just 4.8 yards per pass with a 50.0 QB rating."

INJURY REPORT:

Raiders - DT Stacy McGee (probable, ankle), WR Amari Cooper (probable, shoulder), WR Michael Crabtree (probable, ankle), S Karl Joseph (probable, toe), QB Matt McGloin (questionable, shoulder), OL Kelechi Osemele (questionable, knee), OT Donald Penn (questionable, knee), WR Andre Holmes (questionable, shoulder), LB Malcolm Smith (questionable, hamstring), OT Austin Howard (questionable, shoulder), S Nate Allen (doubtful, concussion), LB Aldon Smith (out for season, suspension), QB Derek Carr (out for season, leg), LB Shilique Calhoun (IR, knee)

Texans - DE Jadeveon Clowney (probable, elbow), RB Lamar Miller (probable, ankle), CB Jonathan Joseph (probable, shoulder), LB Brian Cushing (probable, ankle), G Jeff Allen (questionable, ankle), CB A.J. Bouye (questionable, groin), S Quintin Demps (questionable, hamstring), TE Ryan Griffin (questionable, quadricep), FB Jay Prosch (questionable, ankle), LB John Simon (questionable, chest), OT Chris Clark (questionable, leg), QB Tom Savage (out, concussion)

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U): Oakland, making its first postseason appearance since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, is hoping to rally around Cook, a fourth-round draft pick out of Michigan State who finished 14-of-21 for 150 yards with a touchdown and an interception in last week's loss at Denver. "Obviously, playing at Michigan State, we played in some big-time games there," said Cook, who was inactive for the first 15 games. "So, I'm going to try and take whatever I did there, use it, put it to use out there Saturday." The Raiders have the league's No. 6 rushing attack at 120.1 yards per game and likely will try to ease the pressure on Cook by featuring a heavy dose of Latavius Murray and rookie DeAndre Washington. Defensive end Khalil Mack has recorded 11 sacks for a unit that ranked last in the league with 25.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Coach Bill O'Brien finally ran out of patience with Osweiler, a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason, after he tossed a pair of interceptions against lowly Jacksonville on Dec. 18. The injury to Savage - currently in the NFL concussion protocol - also gives Osweiler an opportunity to erase the memory of a year ago, when he was benched in Denver's regular-season finale in favor of Peyton Manning, who promptly led the Broncos to the Super Bowl title. "When you do become the backup, you're able to observe a lot more," O'Brien told reporters. "You're able to observe in practice. In the games, in the meetings, and I think it helped him." The Texans received a boost when running back Lamar Miller, who rushed for 1,069 yards this season, practiced fully on Wednesday after missing two games with an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in Texans last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Users are split 50/50 on this battle of inexperienced quarterbacks. As for the total, 53 percent of wagers are on the under

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**Udog** · 01-07-2017, 09:43 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 7

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Lions at Seahawks
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"Everything that's already happened doesn't matter at all,” said Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who might be comforted by the fact that he has yet to suffer a playoff loss in the Pacific Northwest.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 43)

The Seattle Seahawks are making their fifth consecutive playoff appearance on the heels of trading wins and losses over their last six games, while the Detroit Lions' bid to capture the NFC North title was dashed by three straight defeats to end the season. Both teams will look to get it in gear on Saturday night, when they meet in a wild-card tilt at CenturyLink Field in Seattle.

"Everything that's already happened doesn't matter at all,” said Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who might be comforted by the fact that he - along with quarterback Russell Wilson - has yet to suffer a playoff loss in the Pacific Northwest while Detroit hasn't won a postseason game since 1991. Wilson (career-high 4,219 passing yards) threw a touchdown pass in a 25-23 victory over San Francisco on Sunday and found Doug Baldwin for a scoring strike in the last encounter with the Lions, resulting in Seattle's 13-10 triumph on Oct. 5, 2015. While Wilson reportedly is contemplating removing his knee brace for the playoffs, Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford said he hasn't been affected by wearing a glove on his throwing hand to protect an injured finger, although he has registered two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last three games after recording 22 TDs and seven picks prior to the injury. Stafford threw for 347 yards and two scores in a 31-24 setback against Green Bay on Sunday and has averaged 351.5 yards in two career playoff appearances.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0) - Seahawks (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this game as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has grown to 8. The total opened at 43 and briefly dropped to 42.5 before returning to the original number late in the week. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up for an awful afternoon for football in Seattle. The forecast is calling for considerable cloud at kickoff and a little accumulation of snow and rain later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the high 30’s with winds between six-nine miles per hour coming from the east.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The sharp bettors haven’t really taken much of a stand for this one as of yet. A few quickly grabbed on the -7 open most likely as a position play and hoping it balloons out of control. We have more than 65 percent of the action on Seattle as of now but we do expect to see some smart guys on the dog at some point."

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Seattle continues to possess a very strong home field, going 7-1 SU this season. This is a difficult scheduling situation for the Lions as they are traveling on a short week after playing the Sunday night game versus Green Bay. Detroit enters the playoffs on a 0-3 SU/ATS slide, while Seattle has alternated wins/losses in their past six games, going 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) down the stretch of the regular season. The Seahawks have only won three of their past 12 games this season by more than seven points."

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - WR Andre Roberts (questionable, shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (questionable, knee), C Travis Swanson (questionable, concussion), DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, undisclosed), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (questionable, concussion), OT Riley Reiff (questionable, hip), CB Asa Jackson (IR ankle), OT Corey Robinson (IR, foot), RB Ameer Abdullah (IR, foot), RB Theo Riddick (IR, wrist), DT Stefan Charles (IR, knee)

Seahawks - DT Tony McDaniel (questionable, concussion), RB C.J. Promise (out, shoulder), LS Nolan Frese (IR, ankle), WR Tyler Lockett (IR, leg)

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10, O/U): Former Seattle wideout Golden Tate overcame a horrendous start to the season to lead the team with 1,077 receiving yards, with 404 and two touchdowns coming on 33 receptions in his last four road games. Tate has made himself at home in his third season with Detroit after signing a five-year, $31 million contract on the heels of helping the Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII. "I thought they wanted me back. I thought I did everything I could to help them win a Super Bowl, was in the community, was a good guy," Tate told reporters. "But you know, it worked out. I'm happy where I am and excited about the future of this organization, and hopefully I'm here for a long, long time." Zach Zenner has given Detroit's 30th-ranked rushing game a jolt with 136 yards and three touchdowns in his last two contests.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Seattle's ground game has struggled to get untracked since the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, with Thomas Rawls plagued by multiple injuries while Christine Michael (now with Green Bay) and C.J. Prosise (shoulder) also saw their paths to stardom slowed. "We just keep going," Carroll said on 710 ESPN Seattle. "We keep running. We have to keep running to make sure that we have the mix that we want." Wideouts Jermaine Kearse (six touchdowns in seven career playoff games) and Baldwin (four TDs in last six postseason contests) have come up large in the passing game. Former Lion Cliff Avril recorded six of his team-leading 11.5 sacks in his last six home games while fellow Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Bennett has registered one in back-to-back postseason contests.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Lions last 10 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 playoff games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: So far the public is backing the underdog with 61 percent of users wagering on the Lions. Meanwhile the Over is getting 58 percent of the action on the total.

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**Udog** · 01-08-2017, 10:16 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 8

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Dolphins at Steelers
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With no Ryan Tannehill for the Dolphins, Antonio Brown and the Steelers are currently 10-point favorites in their Wild Card matchup.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 45.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the playoffs on a seven-game winning streak and tied for the most postseason victories (34) in league history, but they are not focused on their string of successes. Instead, the Steelers will be looking to atone for one of their worst performances of the season when they host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday in an AFC wild-card matchup.

Pittsburgh secured the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the conference with its strong finishing run, which partly was necessitated by a four-game losing streak that started with a 30-15 drubbing in Miami on Oct. 15. While the Steelers will be at home in the rematch and temperatures are expected to peak at a frosty 20 degrees on Sunday, offensive coordinator Todd Haley did little to douse the revenge angle by proclaiming: "We’re thankful we get another crack at a team that kicked our butts." The Dolphins won nine of 10 prior to a loss to New England in the regular-season finale to nail down their first postseason berth since 2008, but they lost starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill to injury in Week 14 and will be forced to go with veteran Matt Moore versus Pittsburgh. "I feel real good," Moore, who will be making his first career postseason start, told reporters. "It's an unbelievable opportunity. ... This is my second time ever being part of a team that's going to the playoffs, so I'm excited."

TV: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (-0.5) - Steelers (-5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -7.5

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 10-point home favorites and that line appears fine with bettors as it hasn’t moved. The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and has been bet down two full points to 45.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Heinz Field is Pittsburgh is calling for mainly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 20’s at kickoff. The wind could be a factor blowing out of the northwest between 12-16 mph.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: We opened the Steelers as a 10 point favourite at home and took early acton on the Dolphins (over 55%) but not enough to move our line. Just now we moved the Steelers to -10.5 as we took some sharp action on them at -10. As we sit now we have just over 50% of the action on the Dolphins to cover the spread.

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - CB Byron Maxwell (probable, ankle), LB Jelani Jenkins (probable, knee), DE Mario Williams (probable, ankle), S Bacarri Rambo (questionable, chest), QB Ryan Tannehill (out indefinitely, knee)

Steelers - CB Justin Gilbert (probable, shoulder), TE Ladarius Green (probable, concussion), WR Sammie Coates (probable, hamstring), DE Stephon Tuitt (probable, knee), DE Johnny Maxey (questionable, ankle), LB Vince Williams (questionable, shoulder), S Robert Golden (questionable, ankle), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle)

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U): No matter who is under center, Miami's game plan figures to follow the blueprint of the mid-October matchup, when running back Jay Ajayi tore through Pittsburgh's defense for 204 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. It was the first of three 200-yard rushing performances this season by Ajayi, which is why Steelers coach Mike Tomlin stressed that Pittsburgh's defense cannot act like his dominant game "was by no means a lightning strike." Moore, who had just 30 pass attempts in his previous four seasons with the Dolphins, put up solid numbers in his three starts (674 yards, eight TDs, three interceptions) and has a trio of talented wide receivers in Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. Miami's defense ranked 30th against the run (140.4 yards per game) but limited Steelers rushers to 53 yards in the first matchup.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Le'Veon Bell ran a season-low 10 times against Miami, but he recorded at least 20 carries in each of his last six games before sitting out Week 17 and was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month for December/January after rushing for 569 yards and four touchdowns while catching 18 passes in four games. "This is going to be my first playoff game in my fourth year in the league. I'm going to be pumped, and I need that," Bell told reporters. "I obviously want to go out there and show some people what I can do." Bell is one of two elite weapons for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has two Super Bowl championships on his resume and one of the league's top wideouts in Antonio Brown - the conference leader with 12 touchdown receptions who surpassed 100 catches for the fourth straight season. Pittsburgh's defense led the league with 21 sacks from Weeks 11-16.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.
* Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Dolphins last 6 games overall.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Steelers last 16 playoff home games.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: So far the betting public is backing the underdog with 52 percent of users wagering on the Dolphins. Meanwhile the Over is getting 56 percent of the action on the total.

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**Udog** · 01-08-2017, 10:17 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 8

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NFL Wild Card betting preview: Giants at Packers
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The Packers deep receiving core will try to take advantage of the Giants 23rd ranked pass defense. Green Bay is currently a 4.5-point home fave.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 44.5)

Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers proved to be a man of his word when he told reporters that the Green Bay Packers were capable of running the table to secure a playoff bid. Six straight wins led to the eighth straight postseason appearance for Green Bay, which looks to remain on the fast track when it hosts the New York Giants on Sunday in an NFC wild-card matchup at Lambeau Field.

"Look, I just talked about running the table and getting into the playoffs. Obviously, it's win or go home at this point. That's the focus," Rodgers, who tossed 15 of his NFL-best 40 touchdown passes during the Packers' winning streak, told reporters. The 33-year-old recorded his second straight four-TD performance in Sunday's 31-24 victory over Detroit, securing the NFC North title for his team and conference Player of the Month honors to boot. While Green Bay has been a staple in the playoffs, New York is making its first postseason appearance since it posted a victory over the Packers in the divisional round of the 2011-12 playoffs en route to upending New England in Super Bowl XLVI. Eli Manning, who has won eight of his last nine playoff starts, completed just 18-of-35 passes for 199 yards in a 23-16 loss to Green Bay on Oct. 9.

TV: 4:40 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-2.5) - Packers (-4) + home field (-3) = Packers -4.5

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as 4.5-home favorites briefly faded to 3.5 Tuesday morning, returned to the opening number -4.5 later in the afternoon and has held ever since. The total opened at 44.5 and hasn’t moved off that number all week. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Lambeau Field is mostly sunny and bitter cold, with temperatures in mid-teens in the afternoon dropping to single digits into the evening. There will be winds blowing from the west between 8-12 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: Another same season rematch with the Giants looking to avenge a 23-16 home loss suffered to the Packers in early October. El Manning’s postseason success jumps off the page (8-1 SUATS last nine playoff games), but Aaron Rodgers’ red-hot hand (6-0 SU down the stretch with 18 TDs and 0 INTs) certainly makes this a playoff game worth watching.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: We opened the Packers as -3.5 point favourite and quickly took action on the Giants to cover pushing us all the way down Packers -3.5. We then took sharp action on the Packers at that number pushing us up to -4 then -4.5 and finally to our current number of -5. We are seeing solid two way action on this game with 51% of that landing on the Packers to cover.

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - S Nat Berhe (probable, concussion), CB Coty Sensabaugh (probable, ankle), CB Janoris Jenkins (probable, back), DE Owa Odighizuma (questionable, hamstring), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (questionable, hernia), TE Jerell Adams (questionable, shoulder), WR Dwayne Harris (questionable, knee)

Packers - WR Randall Cobb (probable, ankle), CB Damarious Randall (probable, knee), LB Clay Matthews (probable, shoulder), OT Bryan Bulaga (probable, abdominal), OT Jason Spriggs (questionable, shoulder), LB Nick Perry (questionable, hand), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), LB Joe Thomas (questionable, back), CB Quinten Rollins (doubtful, concussion), RB James Starks (out, concussion), CB Makinton Dorleant (IR, knee)

ABOUT THE GIANTS (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U): The flashy Odell Beckham Jr. (NFL third-best 101 receptions for 1,367 yards) and fellow wideout Victor Cruz were quick to dismiss Monday's celebrity-filled off-day trip to Miami as "much ado about nothing" rather than any sort of distraction heading into the playoff game. Beckham had five receptions among his team-high 12 targets and found the end zone in the waning moments of the first meeting with the Packers while Cruz was held without a catch. Cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was named NFC Defensive Player of the Week after reeling in two of his NFL second-best six interceptions in a 19-10 victory over Washington on Sunday.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U): Jordy Nelson recorded one of his NFL-best 14 touchdowns this season against the Giants, but he was quick to praise his opponents this week. "They've got a great secondary, from the corners and the safeties," he told reporters. "Not very often do teams have both - usually it's one or the other, for the most part. ... It will be a good battle." Randall Cobb won the battle the last time around with nine receptions for 108 yards, and the speedy wideout participated in both practices this week after missing the last two games with a left ankle injury. Fellow wide receiver Davante Adams, who also had a highlight-reel TD grab versus New York in the first meeting, had two touchdowns against the Lions last week and has five scoring receptions in his last five games at home.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 playoff road games.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 7-1 in Giants last 8 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Packers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Giants with 54 percent of users taking the road dog. As for the total, 61 percent of wagers are on the Over.

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**Udog** · 01-09-2017, 09:59 AM

NFL opening line report: Patriots open as massive favorites, line pushes higher

“The Patriots are the highest power-rated team in the NFL, going up against the worst playoff team left. We figured we couldn’t make this line high enough."

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Seattle had an up-and-down finish to the regular season, but looked the part of a playoff-tested team Saturday in the wild card game. The third-seeded Seahawks (11-5-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) coasted past Detroit 26-6 as an 8-point home chalk.

Now, the vaunted Seattle defense will be tested by an Atlanta offense that led the league, averaging 33.8 points per game. The Falcons (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS) earned the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, finishing the regular season on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS). Atlanta dropped New Orleans 38-32 in the finale as a 7.5-point home favorite.

These two teams met at Seattle in October, with the Seahawks squeaking out a 26-24 win as a 7-point fave.

“We posted Falcons -4 and 49.5. As expected, we’re seeing the public jump on the ‘dog in this game, as the bet count and money are on Seattle so far, which is fine,” Childs said Saturday night. “I really like this Falcons team, and I have no problem booking early Seahawks money here. The Falcons off a bye, they’ll be as healthy as they’ve been all year.

“What the public is forgetting is how poorly the Seahawks finished their regular season, yet the betting public is willing to forget the Seahawks’ weaknesses after beating up a very bad Lions team at home. The same betting public that faded the Seahawks (on Saturday) is now backing them against the far superior team, the same team that should have beaten Seattle in Seattle if not for an awful missed pass-interference call in the waning moments of that game.”

Childs said there was some Sunday support for the Falcons, pushing the number to 4.5.

“Now we’re seeing some real nice two-way action.”

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14.5)

Fourth-seeded Houston may have won its wild card game with relative ease on Saturday, but it came against an Oakland team missing star quarterback Derek Carr, and the oddsmakers were not impressed. The Texans (10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) posted a 27-14 home victory laying 4 points against the Raiders. Brock Osweiler, benched a few weeks back, had a serviceable game with no turnovers and will remain the starter this week.

New England led the NFL both SU and ATS this season, at 14-2 and 13-3, respectively, earning the bye week as the AFC’s top seed. The Patriots won their last seven in a row (6-1 ATS), including a 35-14 bashing of fellow playoff team Miami giving 7.5 points on the road in Week 17.

Patriots superstar Tom Brady, suspended the first four games of the season for Deflategate, has 28 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season. Osweiler has 15 TD passes and 16 interceptions.

“We opened the Pats -14.5, and that’s the highest playoff number that I can remember,” Childs said. “If memory serves me correct, you’d have to go back all the way to when the NFC was dominating Super Bowls to find an opening line in that range, and that was back in the 1990s. Bottom line, the Texans beat up on a third-string QB (Connor Cook) who was making his first career NFL start Saturday. It was an awful situation for the Raiders, and it showed.

“The Patriots are the highest power-rated team in the NFL, going up against the worst playoff team left. We figured we couldn’t make this line high enough, and while we discussed opening 14, we wanted to err on the side of caution. If we happen to take early money on the dog, it would be welcomed.”

What’s happened instead is the line has already shot up to New England -16.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)

Pittsburgh has now peeled off eight consecutive SU victories, going 6-1-1 ATS in that stretch. On Sunday in the wild card game, the third-seeded Steelers (12-5 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) blew past Miami 30-12 as a hefty 11-point home favorite. The Dolphins were without QB Ryan Tannehill, and Matt Moore was totally over-matched, throwing one INT, losing a pair of fumbles and taking five sacks.

Kansas City (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) nabbed the second seed and a bye week by winning the AFC West in a tiebreaker over Oakland. The Chiefs got out of the gate 2-2 SU and ATS, with the last of those four games a 43-14 beatdown at the hands of Pittsburgh, with K.C. a 3-point road ‘dog. However, Andy Reid’s troops went 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) the rest of the way, topping San Diego 37-27 laying 5.5 points on the road in the regular-season finale.

“The Steelers are fresh off a dominating win over the hapless Dolphins. Miami came into that game with all kinds of injuries, especially on the offensive line, and it showed. They couldn’t protect their second-string QB, and the game got out of hand early,” Childs said. “The betting public is going to be very impressed with the Steelers’ showing (Sunday), and while I personally made the game pick ’em, there’s no doubt in my mind that the public is going to back the Steelers in this game, so we opened them a bit inflated. I believe the sharps are going to back the Chiefs big time, taking the home dog and the points.”

That’s precisely what happened early on. Sportsbook.ag opened Pittsburgh -2.5, and the line quickly flipped all the way to KC -2 before settling at Chiefs -1.5 Sunday night.

“It’s going to be a game where the pros will be butting heads with the Joes, with sharps on the Chiefs and Joe Q. Public on the Steelers,” Childs said.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay is nearly as hot as Pittsburgh, as it now owns a seven-game SU winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Packers rumbled over New York on Sunday, 38-13 as a 5-point home favorite in the NFC’s 4-5 matchup. Aaron Rodgers has 19 TD passes and no interceptions during the Packers’ surge, including three straight four-TD games heading into Dallas.

The Cowboys (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) claimed the NFC East title and the No. 1 seed, getting this past weekend off. After losing its season opener, Dallas ripped off 11 consecutive SU wins and beat the spread in the first nine of those games, riding rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott. In Week 17, with the top seed wrapped up, the Cowboys rested those two and more, losing at Philadelphia 27-13 as a 6.5-point pup.

TheGreek.com opened Dallas a 4.5-point home chalk and decided to move to 4 within a few minutes, with Green Bay at a price of -115.

“We took some money on the Cowboys, and now were at Dallas -4 (-115),” Kaminsky said. “It’s a great game. I don’t know how the number is gonna go. I know that I loved the Packers against the Giants, because I just like playing hot teams. But conversely, I like Dallas here.

“I hate to go against Rodgers, because he’s point-blank one of the top three quarterbacks of my era. I just think the Packers are gonna have a tough time stopping Elliott, and if Dak plays a decent game, I think the Cowboys are gonna cover. The week off is a big factor, too.”

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild-Card Round ( Saturday, January 7 - Sunday, January 8)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild-Card Round ( Saturday, January 7 - Sunday, January 8)

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