Announcement

**Udog** · 12-27-2016, 08:02 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: NFC North title on the line when Packers meet Lions

The 2016 NFL regular season comes to a close Sunday night in Detriot, with the NFC North title on the line.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (OFF)

Green Bay is making a hard charge toward the NFC North crown, winning its last five games SU while going 4-1 ATS in that stretch. The Packers (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) rolled past Minnesota 38-25 Saturday as a 6-point home favorite.

Detroit (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) still has Week 16 work to do, playing in the Monday nighter at Dallas. The Lions had their own five-game winning streak going (4-1 ATS) before falling at the New York Giants 17-6 catching 4 points on Dec. 18.

With Detroit playing tonight, the line has not yet posted, though Kaminsky offered some speculation.

“I think Green Bay will be somewhere around -3. As I’m sitting here, I’m in a T-shirt, and the only thing written on it is ‘Relax,’” he said, alluding to Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers’ comment from a couple seasons ago when his team was struggling a bit but rebounded. Green Bay has done the same this year.

“I’m not an Aaron Rodgers fan as a person, but I would lean toward Green Bay to cover the spread,” Kaminsky said. “There’s something about Detroit, I’m just not enamored with the team. I think Rodgers has the ‘it’ factor, and Detroit has the ‘non-it’ factor.”

The winner of this game claims the division crown, while the loser will be fighting with Washington or Tampa Bay for the final NFC playoff berth.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5)

New York is already assured of one of the two wild-card slots from the NFC, thanks to its 8-2 SU run over the last 10 games (7-3 ATS). The Giants (10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) lost Saturday at Philadelphia, 24-19 getting 1.5 points, but have still punched their postseason ticket.

Washington, meanwhile, needs a victory this week and some help, for sure. The Redskins (8-6-1 SU, 10-5 ATS) have lost three of their last five SU, but drilled Chicago 41-21 Saturday as a 3-point road favorite.

“The Giants have nothing to play for, and the Redskins need to win,” Kaminsky said. “I’m not a fan of betting on a team because it needs to win, but it’s tricky in this game – how much time are the Giants’ starters going to get? Week 17 is my least favorite thing to book in sports, because of who’s playing and who’s not playing. I hate it. I’d take break-even right now.”

Kaminsky said a little early money came in on the Redskins, but the line and the price are still at the opener of -7 (-115). And he offered bettors a little advice: keep an eye on the quarter lines, in the event New York announces its starters are only going to play a quarter or perhaps the first half. Some value can come up if you catch the oddsmakers sleeping.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Oakland was dealt a huge blow in Saturday’s victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Raiders (12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS) lost quarterback Derek Carr to a broken leg in the fourth quarter of a 33-25 win as a 3.5-point chalk, ending Carr’s season. The Raiders are still in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed – though a loss this week could drop them into a wild-card spot.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver, meanwhile, will wrap up its season Sunday, with no trip to the playoffs. The Broncos (8-7 SU and ATS) lost three in a row and four of their last five, going from 7-3 and firmly in the postseason picture to 8-7 and completely out. On Sunday night at Kansas City, Denver had nothing in the tank and took a 33-10 loss as a 3.5-point pup.

“Denver’s so bad,” Kaminsky said, noting the line is where it is only because of Carr’s absence. “I’d have Oakland -3.5 if Carr’s playing – about a 6-point difference.”

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+4)

Kansas City can still nab the AFC West title, and with it the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, if things fall right this week. The Chiefs (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have gone 9-2 SU (7-4 ATS) in their last 11, capped by a 33-10 rout of Denver on Sunday night as a 3.5-point fave.

San Diego will have to settle for spoiler, with an opportunity to keep K.C. locked into the wild card. On Saturday, the Chargers (5-10 SU, 7-8 ATS) continued their habit of being on the short end of one-score games, while becoming Cleveland’s only victim all season in a 20-17 road loss laying 4.5 points.

TheGreek.com opened the Chiefs -4 (-120) and moved to 4.5 on Monday afternoon.

“San Diego pretty much played as well as it could with what it had this season,” Kaminsky said. “They had an abundance of injuries. I think Philip Rivers is really a good quarterback. I’d love to see him on a better team.

“And the Chiefs are just a solid team. They don’t do anything great, but they do everything well. Sunday night against Denver was a perfect example.”

**Udog** · 12-27-2016, 08:05 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 17

Sunday, January 1

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HOUSTON (9 - 6) at TENNESSEE (8 - 7) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (7 - 8) at NY JETS (4 - 11) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (8 - 7) at CINCINNATI (5 - 9 - 1) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 70-97 ATS (-36.7 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in January games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (10 - 5) at WASHINGTON (8 - 6 - 1) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-91 ATS (-41.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 83-111 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (9 - 6) at DETROIT (9 - 6) - 1/1/2017, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 12) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 8) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (13 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 9) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 12) at MINNESOTA (7 - 8) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 7) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 14) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 5) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 87-62 ATS (+18.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (7 - 8) at ATLANTA (10 - 5) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (13 - 2) at MIAMI (10 - 5) - 1/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 112-81 ATS (+22.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-53 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (6 - 8 - 1) at LA RAMS (4 - 11) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-223 ATS (-70.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-223 ATS (-70.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-175 ATS (-66.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 10) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (9 - 5 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 13) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 5-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 5-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (12 - 3) at DENVER (8 - 7) - 1/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-27-2016, 08:12 AM

NFL

Week 17

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Trend Report
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Sunday, January 1

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Jacksonville is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games at home
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TENNESSEE
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Tennessee is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games at home

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
New England is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New England
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NY JETS
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Carolina is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

4:25 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
San Diego is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Kansas City

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 10 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. LOS ANGELES
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the NY Giants last 10 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
San Francisco is 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Denver
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games
Detroit is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

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**Udog** · 12-28-2016, 07:29 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: My top 13 NFL teams……

13) Broncos— Curious to see who plays QB for the Broncos next season; I’m guessing it is someone who is not currently on their roster.

12) Texans— Won division title with JJ Watt missing the whole season; not bad.

11) Redskins— Can you imagine if Green Bay and Detroit tie Sunday night? People in our nation’s capital are not going to be very happy.

10) Dolphins— Can’t wait to bet under on their 2017 over/under win total.

9) Seahawks— Need to improve their offensive line this winter/spring.

8) Packers— It is basically impossible to overpay a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, thats how much they mean to a $1B business.

7) Giants— I see Scott Linehan doing so well as OC in Dallas and Steve Spagniolo’s defense playing well in New Jersey, then I remember how terribly they did as head coach of the Rams. Timing is everything in life.

6) Steelers— I really liked their all-black uniforms they wore Christmas night.

5) Raiders— Derek Carr’s injury is just very unfortunate for a team having a great year.

4) Chiefs— Still unsure what that lineman’s TD pass was all about Sunday night, but they aggravated Denver, now they need help from the Broncos this week to win AFC West title.

3) Falcons— Falcons/Braves are both getting new stadiums next year; why?

2) Patriots— Since 2000, the AFC East has had 24 different head coaches; the Patriots have had one, other three teams 23.

1) Cowboys— Pounded Detroit in a game they didn’t even need. Impressive.

**Udog** · 12-28-2016, 01:45 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 17

Sun – Jan. 1

Houston at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 7-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Tennessee: 0-7 ATS revenging a road loss against opponent

Buffalo at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 46-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
New York: 38-65 ATS off a road loss

Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 25-11 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 8-19 ATS in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

NY Giants at Washington, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 7-0 ATS after playing a Thursday game
Washington: 40-67 ATS as a home favorite

Green Bay at Detroit, 8:30 PM ET
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS off a division game
Detroit: 3-11 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Jacksonville at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 7-20 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game
Indianapolis: 33-16 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games

Dallas at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Dallas: 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 48-26 UNDER in home games off a division game

Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 7-18 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
Minnesota: 12-3 ATS off a division game

Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 9-2 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Tampa Bay: 4-13 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive road losses

Cleveland at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 1-10 ATS versus division opponents
Pittsburgh: 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

New Orleans at Atlanta, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 12-4 ATS as an underdog
Atlanta: 8-27 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

New England at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
New England: 9-2 ATS against conference opponents
Miami: 15-33 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Arizona at Los Angeles, 4:25 PM ET
Arizona: 10-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
Los Angeles: 5-16 ATS after gaining 3.5 or less yards/play in their previous game

Kansas City at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
San Diego: 1-9 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Seattle at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Seattle: 15-4 ATS after scoring and allowing 30 pts or more last game
San Francisco: 3-11 ATS in all lined games

Oakland at Denver, 4:25 PM ET
Oakland: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Denver: 0-6 ATS in the last 4 weeks of the regular season

**Udog** · 12-29-2016, 08:32 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 17

The Chiefs have been among the league leaders in turnover margin since the start of the campaign, and come into Week 17 ranked second in the NFL at a healthy +15.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40)

Texans' ragged red zone stats vs. Titans' TD spree

This game will have no impact on the final playoff picture, with the Texans having already secured the AFC North title even with a loss to the rival Titans, who are on the outside looking in. But this contest still means plenty to Houston, which will have to decide on a starting quarterback between slumping Brock Osweiler and unproven Tom Savage. The latter can help his cause with a win over Tennessee, but he'll need to close the chasm in red-zone scoring between the teams.

Osweiler's first year as the main man in Houston was a colossal failure; the former Denver Broncos backup enters the regular season finale with just 2,704 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Among the litany of failures was his inability to convert in the red zone, as the Texas scored touchdowns on trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line just 39.02 percent of the time; only the woeful New York Jets had a harder time going from the red zone to the end zone.

That could mean big trouble Sunday against a Titans team that had no trouble converting red-zone trips into six points. Tennessee leads the entire NFL in red-zone success rate, scoring touchdowns on 72.34 percent of their visits. To put that into perspective, no other team this season is above 70 percent - and no team finished higher than 69.44 percent last season. Even with QB Marcus Mariota out of action, the Titans have a significant advantage here.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Delanie Walker

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 40.5)

Raiders' late D struggles vs. Broncos' second-half stinginess

The Raiders not only find themselves back in the playoff picture for the first time in a while, they have a shot at home-field advantage throughout the AFC postseason if they can defeat the Broncos and the New England Patriots fall in Miami. But the path isn't an easy one for Oakland, which will need to dispatch the defending champions on hostile soil. And if this one is close at the break, the Broncos hold the advantage as far as second-half defense is concerned.

The Raiders are one of the most generous teams in the NFL after halftime, allowing 13.9 second-half points per game; only the
San Francisco 49ers (14.9), Carolina Panthers (14.5) and San Diego Chargers (14.4) have surrendered more. The rate is even worse than the one they posted last season (12.6), and becomes an even bigger factor considering the offensive downgrade the team is facing with the switch from injured QB Derek Carr to backup Matt McGloin.

The Broncos would love nothing more than to put a damper on Oakland's sensational season, and is in great position to do so. Denver allows the fifth-fewest second-half points in the NFL (8.4), and has given up just 18 second-half points combined over its previous three games. Armed with one of the most impressive pass defenses in football, the Broncos will likely make things miserable for McGloin all game long - but especially over the final two quarters.

Daily fantasy fade: WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+5.5, 44.5)

Chiefs' elite ball-hawking vs. Chargers' turnover troubles

While Oakland is staring at a top-two seed in the conference with a victory, a loss - combined with a Kansas City victory over San Diego - would drop the Raiders out of top spot in the AFC West. So you can bet the Chiefs will be bringing their best football to Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday afternoon as they tangle with a Chargers team that has long been eliminated from the playoff race. And much to the Raiders' chagrin, Kansas City comes in with a significant edge in the turnover department.

The Chiefs have been among the league leaders in turnover margin since the start of the campaign, and come into Week 17 ranked second in the NFL at a healthy +15. This is nothing new for the Chiefs, who recorded a +14 turnover margin a season ago - the second-highest in the league. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a major reason for that dominance on the offensive side of the ball, having thrown just seven interceptions - his sixth straight season of seven or fewer INTs.

His Sunday afternoon counterpart, Chargers QB Philip Rivers, has been on the other end of the spectrum this season, having thrown a league-high 19 interceptions. It's the fourth time in six seasons that Rivers has tossed 15 or more INTs, and his carelessness with the football has played a significant part in the Chargers ranking 26th in the league in turnover differential at -6. Look for Rivers to get to 20 INTs for the second time in his career Sunday.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Philip Rivers

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Packers' potent playoff push vs. Lions' late-season lethargy

The NFC North title is on the line Sunday night as the Packers visit the Lions in the final game of the NFL's regular season. The teams are headed in opposite directions heading into this one, with Detroit having dropped two in a row and Green Bay reeling off five consecutive victories since a 4-6 start that nearly torpedoed its playoff chances. The momentum sits squarely in the Packers' favor, creating the kind of mismatch that could vault them to a division title at the expense of the collapsing lions.

Breaking down each team's last three games should make Packers fans feel jubilant. Green Bay has outscored its opponents 106-62 over that stretch, ranking second in points per game (35.3), sixth in red-zone touchdown rate (69.2 percent), second in average team passer rating (120.7) and first by a mile in turnover differential (+12). Simply put, there hasn't been a hotter team since the beginning of December than the Packers.

The Lions, by comparison, have been truly dismal; they rank 27th in points per game (15.7), 23rd in red-zone touchdown rate (53.3 percent), 29th in average team passer rating (66.5) and 28th in turnover differential (-8) over their previous three games. With Detroit sputtering to the finish line and Green Bay unbeatable since Thanksgiving, Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers are on the verge of an incredible rags-to-riches finish this weekend.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Aaron Rodgers

**Udog** · 12-29-2016, 08:35 AM

NFL Week 17 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Bucs opened as low as -3.5 hosting the Panthers and that spread has since jumped an entire field goal to Tampa Bay -6.5 in Week 17.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmm…” in Week 17:

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+6, 44)

This games stands out as the most lopsided line of the week. I hate to say it, but the Bills should not be favored. In fact, if they show up physically (because mentally they won’t be there) I’d be surprised. It would be one thing if Buffalo was potentially saying good-bye to a long, loved coach after decades of great work. But this isn’t the case. Buffalo owes nothing to Rex Ryan and he did nothing for Buffalo. Incentive is not a term they will be using this week.

The Jets will be loose as a goose and ready to play. As the last game, a win against their divisional foe will mean more to them than vice versa. No one is going to be balls-to-the-wall football but with a little backing from the home town crowd, a little push and momentum for a season-ending win, the Jets should prevail straight up or at least lose a close one. Grab the points early, take a shot of whisky, and watch the merciless season for both team end without much fanfare.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

Normally, one would think this would be a great date to mark on the calendar to settle in and watch some smash-mouth football. But not here. In fact, we’re not even looking at the side in this one. We’re keying into the total.

With the shock waves felt from Derek Carr’s injury, all playoff-bound teams have been put on notice. Although, we truly feel Philadelphia will win this game out of default, as the Cowboys try to avoid all injuries this weekend - particularly Tony Romo, who has been now deemed an important piece in case of an injury/breakdown to Dak Prescott. Don’t be surprised if you see Mark Sanchez play over Romo.

I don’t envision the Cowboys extending anyone on offense and with the lack of a complete overhaul of personnel, they will still be fielding most of their top defensive players throughout the game. Add in the cold weather and it looks like we’ll be watching two Chuck Knox teams playing run, run, pass, punt all game.

I don’t see six touchdowns scored in this one.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 46.5)

This is one of the Week 17 games that actually counts. Terrible opening line by the offshores at Tampa Bay -3.5 saw the line jump to the current -6.5 level. We still like the Bucs at the higher number and believe this will still go up by kickoff.

Having one of the most disappointing seasons of 2016, Carolina really has nothing to play for. At this point, a win or a loss won’t change the Panthers draft position that much. Cam Newton has been punished this season and we don’t envision him playing that much, if at all. Keep an eye on his status as the week unfolds.

Tampa Bay has faint chances to get into the playoffs but the fact that it’s even there, will have this team playing for its life. That’s what we like to have on our side. Playing in the early games, there will be no time to scoreboard watch early on. The Bucs are just going to have to win and control the things they can and not worry about the things they can’t.

I expect Tampa Bay to put Carolina out of its misery early and coast to a big win. For those of you who got the early numbers, good catch.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41)

This game counts for nothing. I’m very surprised at the opening move beyond the initial play at +3.5. Taking the hook was a given in some respects but continuing to take the line to 2.5 seems surprising unless, of course, this is the setup to pounce on Denver game day.

Let’s use the early influencing money and grab Denver minus the points now as it will be the only team interested in winning this game. The Raiders will be playing injury-free football and will give up the hard hits at all costs. They will not be exposing Matt McGloin all that much, so be ready to see plenty of hand offs by Conner Cook.

Denver will be incentivized to end the season on an uptick in front of its home crowd and we see nothing to point to an all-out game by Oakland.

**Udog** · 12-29-2016, 08:37 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 17 NFL lines are going to move

The Fish have plenty of incentive to win this week, but that hasn't impressed bettors pushing the line to +9.5 in their Week 17 clash with the Pats.

Game to bet now

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9.5)

The Dolphins are rolling, with nine wins in their last 10 and a berth in the playoffs. Plus, the Fish have incentive to win this week – if things fall right they move up to the 5 seed in the AFC playoffs and would not have to play in Pittsburgh. But that doesn’t impress bettors, who took the opening line (New England -6) and quickly bet it up 3.5-points.

It all has to do with Patriots motivation. New England needs a win at 1 p.m. to lock down the overall No. 1 seed in the AFC and make Oakland’s game (at 4:25 EST) at Denver (Broncos -2.5) moot. Last season, you recall, Bill Belichick took his foot off the accelerator in Week 17 at Miami, lost home-field advantage, then lost in Denver in the AFC title game. Not many see a repeat of that happening.

Game to wait on

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5)

Oddsmakers and bettors both figure that the Seahawks will lay waste to the Niners, especially after Seattle’s puzzling loss to the Cardinals at home last week. Seattle is dealing with injuries everywhere – safety Earl Thomas and wide receiver Tyler Lockett are both done for the season, and now running back Thomas Rawls might not be a go against San Francisco.

Still, this is San Francisco we’re talking about and the 49ers are 1-6 at home ATS this season. Bettors are still pounding Seattle, so there could be some reluctant movement in the line before kickoff.

Total to watch

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (40)

Pardon Bill O’Brien if he has any flashbacks this week. A year ago his Texans got waxed, 30-0, by the Chiefs in the wild card round of the playoffs when QB Brian Hoyer had as bad a game (four interceptions) as anyone thought possible. Twelve months later and O’Brien still has QB issues. Brock Osweiler hasn’t been the answer, so the Texans will roll with backup Tom Savage for the rest of the season.

Savage game-managed Houston past Cincinnati last week and gets another four quarters vs. Marcus Mariotta-less Tennessee this Sunday. The Titans surprisingly stayed in the playoff into Week 16, but will be playing out the string with veteran Matt Cassel under center in what looks like a low-scoring game.

**Udog** · 12-30-2016, 08:20 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Texans (9-6) @ Titans (8-7)— Battle of backup QB’s; will Houston sit Savage/starters with a playoff game next week? Tennessee’s season unraveled LW with loss to Jaguars and Mariota’s broken leg. Texans (-4.5) beat Titans 27-20 way back in Week 4, running punt back for a TD in game where total yardage was 359-320. Houston is 2-5 on road, winning by 3-5 in its other AFC South road games (Colts/Jags)- they’re 0-1 as road favorites this year but Texans have won four of last five visits here. Underdogs are 6-3-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Houston, games, 3-9 in last dozen Titan tilts. Savage won his first NFL start 12-10 over Bengals LW; Cassel is 35-44 as an NFL starter; he started eight games LY, 7 for Dallas, one for Buffalo. Again, Houston has a home playoff game next week.

Bills (7-8) @ Jets (3-12)— Rex Ryan was fired Tuesday; OC Anthony Lynn is interim coach. EJ Manuel is expected to play QB instead of starter Taylor. Tickets for this game were going for $8 on StubHub on Monday; no home field edge for Jets. Buffalo is 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they lost three of last four games. Gang Green lost six of last seven games with win in OT over 49ers when they trailed 17-3 at half- they’re 1-6 at home this season. Jets (+1) won first matchup 37-31 in a Week 2 Thursday game in Buffalo- Jets passed for 370 yards, outgained Bills 493-393- they had TD’s of 84-71 yards. Buffalo won its last two visits here; series has been swept in six of last nine years. Over is 12-2 in last 14 Buffalo games, 3-7-1 in Jets’ last 11 games. Favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Ravens (8-7) @ Bengals (5-9-1)— Baltimore’s season ended on goal line in last 0:10 Sunday night in Pittsburgh; Ravens beat Bengals 19-14 (-4) at home in Week 12, leading 16-3 at half, they were outgained 325-311, but Dalton fumbled on Ravens’ 21 with 1:04 left to seal win. Baltimore lost last four visits here, by 6-17-3-8 points; this series ended in sweeps in six of last nine years. Bengals lost five of last seven games, losing in Houston LW when they missed 43-yard FG wide right at gun; Cincy is 3-3 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Ravens lost their last five road games; they beat Browns/Jaguars on road back in Weeks 2-3- they’re 1-4 as a road underdog. Over is 4-0 in Ravens’ last four games, 1-6 in Bengals’ last seven. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Giants (10-5) @ Redskins (8-6-1)— Big Blue is locked into road playoff game next week while Redskins still have shot at making playoffs; why would Manning/starters play here? It would make no sense. Washington (+4.5) won 29-27 in Swamp Stadium in Week 3; they were +2 in turnovers after trailing 21-16 at half. Giants are 7-3 in last 10 visits here; series has been swept in 7 of last 10 years. New Jersey is 2-4 in true road games, beating Dallas/Browns; they’re 1-3-1 as road underdogs. Redskins won four of last five home games, are 3-2 vs spread as home favorites; they’ve trailed at half in five of their last seven games. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Under is 6-1 in last seven Giant games, 1-7 in last eight Washington games.

Packers (9-6) @ Lions (9-6)— Winner takes NFC North; if game ends in a tie, they both get in, with Packers winning division. Green Bay (-7.5) won first meeting 34-27; they led 31-10 at half, but Stafford threw for 368 yards as Lions got back-door cover. Teams split last six visits here, with wins by 12-4-4 points, including Hail Mary in LY’s game. Packers won last five games (4-1 vs spread), are 3-4 on road, losing both their games in domes by total of 4 points. Detroit has short week after getting thumped in Dallas; they lost last two games on road, but won last six home games, with five of six wins by 3 or less points. Lions trailed in 4th quarter in 14 of 15 games this season. Over is 7-2 in Green Bay’s last nine games, 1-8 in Detroit’s last nine. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season.

Jaguars (3-12) @ Colts (7-8)— Indianapolis is 6-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they lost three of last four home games, are 3-2 as a home favorite. One of Jags’ three wins this year was 30-27 (-1) over Colts in London back in Week 4; they led 23-6 in 4th quarter, held on for win. Jags lost last three visits to Indy, by 20-20-3 points. Jaguars snapped 9-game skid LW in first game after Bradley was fired; they averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, their best game of year. Jaguars are 1-6 in true road games, 4-3 as road underdogs. As bad as Jax has been, they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games. In their last five games, Colts are 31-61 on third down. Over is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 0-4 in Colts’ last four home games. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this year.

Cowboys (13-2) @ Eagles (6-9)—Rumors Thursday say Cowboys will rest lot of regulars with nothing to gain here. Short week for Dallas after they pounded Lions Monday nite at home; with bye on deck and then playoffs. Philly snapped five-game skid by beating Giants LW; they’ve had four extra days to prep after playing on Thursday. Eagles are 3-9 in last 12 games after a 3-0 start; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Packers, Redskins. Dallas won 29-23 in OT in first meeting (-4.5), running ball for 187 yards- they outgained Eagles 460-291 in game they trailed 13-10 at half. Cowboys won last four visits here, by 15-14-11-10 points. Home favorites are 3-4 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Last four Philly games went over total; three of last four Dallas games stayed under. Cowboys are 6-1 on road; they’re 0-2 vs Giants, 13-0 vs everyone else.

Bears (3-12) @ Vikings (7-8)— Minnesota is 2-8 in its last ten games after a 5-0 start; when DB’s ignore the gameplan and go rogue, in same season where OC quit midseason, you know team has serious issues. Bears (+5.5) won first meeting 20-10 at home in Week 8, running ball for 158 yards, outgunning Vikings 403-258. Barkley threw eight INT’s in last two games; Bears are -9 in turnovers last two weeks, -16 for season. Chicago is 2-4 as a road underdog this year; they covered four of last six games overall. Minnesota lost three of last four home games, scoring one TD on 20 drives in last two; they’ve got only two takeaways (-6) in last five games. Under is 5-2 in Viking home games, 3-1 in Chicago’s last four road tilts. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC North games this season.

Panthers (6-9) @ Buccaneers (8-7)— This series has been swept the last seven years; Bucs (+6) won first meeting 17-14 in Week 6, thanks to +4 turnover ratio- Carolina outgained them 414-315 but was 1-8 on 3rd down in game Bucs led 6-0 at half. Panthers are 2-5 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs; they’re 2-6 vs spread week after a loss this season. Tampa Bay still has an outside shot at making playoffs (they need win and ton of help), but they lost last two games (-5 TO ratio), allowing 26-31 points- they.won last three home games, allowing total of 26 points. Carolina won last three visits here by 18-6-14 points. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in Tampa’s last six games, 3-0 in last three Carolina games.

Browns (1-14) @ Steelers (10-5)— Big Ben/Bell/Brown are sitting here to get ready for playoffs next week. Monkey is off Cleveland’s back after they beat Chargers LW; Browns are 2-5 as road underdogs this year; LW was just third time all year they had positive turnover ratio. Not sure if RGIII (concussion) can play here. Pittsburgh won its last six games (5-1 vs spread); they are 4-2 as home favorites- this game means very little to them. Steelers won first meeting 24-9 (-8) at home six weeks ago, scoring defensive TD and sacking Brown QB’s 8 times in game they led 14-0 at half. Pitt is 22-3 in last 25 series games, winning last 12 meetings here. Under is 6-1 in last seven Cleveland games, 11-3 in Steelers’ last 14 games. Favorites are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Saints (7-8) @ Falcons (10-5)— Atlanta gets #2 seed in NFC with win here; they scored 38.7 pts/game in winning last three games with +7 turnover ratio, they’re 2-4 as a home favorite this year. New Orleans scored 79 points in winning last couple games; they’re 9-3 vs spread in last 12 games. NO is 3-4 on road, 4-1 as a road underdog; they scored 24-18 second half points in last two games. Saints won 10 of last 12 visits here; this series has been swept seven of last ten years. Falcons (+3) won first meeting 45-32 in Superdome back in Week 3- Atlanta scored five TD’s on 8 drives and also scored a defensive TD. Underdogs are 6-4 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 6-4 in Saints’ last ten games, 3-12 in Atlanta games this season.

Patriots (13-2) @ Dolphins (10-5)— New England is playing for top seed in AFC; Miami has a road playoff game next week. This series has split 8 of last 12 years; Patriots lost last three trips to Miami, by 4-13-10 points. NE won its last six games overall, covered its last four; they’re 10-1 with Brady at QB, 5-1 as a road favorite- they beat Miami 31-24 (-6.5) in Week 2 when Garoppolo was NE’s QB. Dolphins won nine of last ten games, covered last three; they’ve won five in row at home since losing here to Tennessee in Week 5. Miami covered five of last six tries as an underdog. Home side/favorites are 5-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Patriot games; last five Miami games went over the total.

Cardinals (6-8-1) @ Rams (4-11)- Carson Palmer returns to his home field from his college days at USC for first time since 2002. Arizona lost four of last six games; they’re 2-5 on road, winning 33-21 at SF, 34-31 LW at Seattle. Arizona is 4-7 as a favorite this year. Rams lost 10 of last 11 games, are 0-6 with Goff at QB; they lost last five home games after winning home opener 9-3 over Seattle. LA was outscored 50-21 in second half of last three games. This series has been swept six of last nine years; Rams won first meeting 17-13 back in Week 4, even though Redbirds outgained them 420-288 (LA was +4 in turnovers). Cardinals went 9-2 in last 11 games vs Rams in St Louis. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Last six Arizona games went over total; under is 6-3 in Rams’ last nine games.

Chiefs (11-4) @ Chargers (5-10)— Will likely be sad day here, Chargers’ last game in Qualcomm before they bolt for LA. Chiefs need win here and Raider loss in Denver to win AFC West. KC won four of last five games; they won last five road games, are 2-0 as road favorites this year. Chargers lost last four games (0-4 vs spread, -6 turnovers); they lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points. San Diego is 2-5 in last seven games despite being favored in five of the seven games. This series has been swept in six of last eight years; San Diego blew 21-3 halftime lead in season opener, lost 33-27 in OT at Arrowhead. Chiefs won 23-20/33-3 in last two visits here. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Charger games, 10-4 in last 14 Chief games.

Seahawks (9-5-1) @ 49ers (2-13)— Seattle needs win here and Atlanta loss to get #2 seed in NFC and next week off, but Seahawks have been struggling, going 2-3 in last five games, with losses to Bucs/Cardinals. Seattle is 2-4-1 on road, winning 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro, tying Arizona. 49ers are 2-0 vs Rams, 0-13 vs everyone else; they’re 1-6 at home, 1-5 as a home underdog- they blew 17-3 halftime lead in last home game, an OT loss to Jets. This series was split five of last eight years; Seattle (-9.5) won 37-18 at home in first meeting back in Week 3, averaging 8.6 yds/pass attempt in game they led 24-3 at half. Seattle was outscored 38-16 in first half of last three games. Divisional home underdogs are 10-4 vs spread in NFC games. Over is 9-5 in 49ers’ last 14 games, 3-1 in last four Seattle games.

Raiders (12-3) @ Broncos (8-7)— McGloin (1-5 as NFL starter, with starts in ’13) replaces injured Carr at QB for Oakland, which needs win for AFC West title (if NE also loses, Raiders would get #1 seed in AFC). This series has been swept four of last six years; Oakland (-1) beat Denver 30-20 at home back in Week 9, outgaining Denver by 98 yards- two of their three TDs in game were on drives of less than 60 yards. Denver lost its last three games, is 5-3 as a favorite this year; Broncos turned ball over eight times (-6) in last three games- they were outscored 18-0 in second half of last two games. Raiders lost three of last four visits here, with all three losses by 16+ points. Over is 11-4 in Oakland games, 1-3 in last four Denver games. Home favorites are 5-2 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season.

**Udog** · 12-30-2016, 08:23 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 17

Sunday, January 1

Oakland @ Denver

Game 331-332
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
131.513
Denver
135.702
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 4
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 1
40
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-1); Over

Seattle @ San Francisco

Game 329-330
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.000
San Francisco
120.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 14
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-9 1/2); Over

Kansas City @ San Diego

Game 327-328
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.433
San Diego
133.937
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+6); Over

Arizona @ Los Angeles

Game 325-326
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
132.807
Los Angeles
121.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 11
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6); Over

New England @ Miami

Game 323-324
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
147.637
Miami
131.281
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-9 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Game 321-322
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
133.025
Atlanta
146.253
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 13
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 6 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-6 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Game 319-320
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
119.493
Pittsburgh
141.898
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 22 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-6); Under

Carolina @ Tampa Bay

Game 317-318
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
133.564
Tampa Bay
135.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+5); Under

Chicago @ Minnesota

Game 315-316
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.393
Minnesota
127.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+6 1/2); Over

Dallas @ Philadelphia

Game 313-314
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
132.728
Philadelphia
138.687
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Game 311-312
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
134.400
Indianapolis
131.413
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 5
47
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+5); Under

Green Bay @ Detroit

Game 309-310
January 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
133.370
Detroit
135.277
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3 1/2); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 307-308
January 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.487
Washington
140.920
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 12 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Game 305-306
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
134.776
Cincinnati
132.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+2 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ NY Jets

Game 303-304
January 1, 2017 @

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
124.812
NY Jets
127.040
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Over

Houston @ Tennessee

Game 301-302
January 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
132.359
Tennessee
130.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+3); Over

**Udog** · 01-01-2017, 10:01 AM

Essential Week 17 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Handicapping NFL Week 17 can be a headache - especially when Week 17 falls on New Year's Day.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 47)

Jacksonville's running back carousel could turn to Denard Robinson with Chris Ivory (hamstring) in line to sit out for the third time in five games while T.J. Yeldon was placed on injured reserve Monday. "Looks like I’ll be able to go," Robinson said earlier this week. "It's been tough (not playing). I hate just watching." Wideout Allen Robinson was more than a bystander last week, reeling in nine receptions to eclipse his total from the previous four games (eight) while his 147 yards receiving trumped the sum of his last five tilts (105). Robinson leads the team with 68 catches for 801 yards and six touchdowns, a far cry from his Pro Bowl numbers of 80 grabs for 1,400 yards and 14 scores last season.

Andrew Luck recorded his fifth straight multi-touchdown performance in Saturday's 33-25 loss to Oakland and also had two scoring strikes in the earlier meeting with Jacksonville. The former top overall pick is on pace for career highs in completion percentage (63.8) and quarterback rating (96.8) while Frank Gore is zeroing in on an impressive accomplishment as well. The veteran needs 36 rushing yards to record his ninth 1,000-yard season and first by a running back at the age of 33 or older since John Riggins accomplished the feat in 1984.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened this AFC South battle as 6-point home favorites and that line was too much for bettors and has shrunk to 4.5. The total opened at 49 and within hours had dropped to 47, where it has held the remainder of the week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 17.
* Over is 5-0 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 4-0 in Colts last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Indianapolis.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+9.5, 44.5)

Tom Brady missed the earlier matchup against the Dolphins while serving a four-game suspension, but he is putting up some of the most impressive numbers of his career with 25 touchdowns against two interceptions. Backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo led New England to three touchdowns drives before he was injured in the first meeting and running back LeGarrette Blount (NFL-leading 17 rushing touchdowns) finished Miami off with 29 carries for 123 yards and a score. Tight end Martellus Bennett also came up big in Week 2 with five receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots are allowing a league-low 15.7 points after yielding a field goal in each of the last two games.

Miami will be forced to go with a backup quarterback with Matt Moore set to make his third consecutive start in place of Ryan Tannehill (knee). Moore has six touchdown passes against two interceptions in road wins at the New York Jets and Buffalo to clinch a playoff spot, leading the offense to 34 points in each of the victories. Running back Jay Ajayi emerged from a four-game funk with his third 200-yard game of the season, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors by rushing for 206 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries last week. The Dolphins surrendered 589 total yards to the Bills last week and will be without two starters in cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Jelani Jenkins.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened this AFC East showdown as 7.5-point home pups and that number wasn’t high enough being bet up to 10. The total opened at 44.5 and hasn’t moved off that number all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC.
* Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Home team is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 43)

Running back Adrian Peterson, who returned from a three-month absence with six carries against Indianapolis in Week 15, has not practiced since and could sit out his second straight game due to groin and knee injuries. Despite the offense's struggles, quarterback Sam Bradford owns the highest completion percentage (71.3) in history and has received high marks across the board from Zimmer. “Maybe this is the best year he’s ever had,” Zimmer said. “If you put all those together and look at the things he’s had to deal with, I think he’s been amazing.” Minnesota's defense has unraveled in the past two weeks, surrendering 72 points in losses to Indianapolis and Green Bay.

Injuries to Jay Cutler and backup Jay Hoyer have forced Chicago to go forward with third-string quarterback Matt Barkley, who has labored over the past two games with twice as many interceptions (8) as touchdown passes (4). On Wednesday, Barkley said there was a "lot to learn" from the five-interception debacle in last week's 41-21 loss to the Washington Redskins. “I think the big picture was just if it don’t feel right, it’s not right. Don’t try to force things or try to make a big play out of nothing," Barkley said. "When the timing is off, just don’t make a bad play worse." Rookie Jordan Howard rushed for a season-high 153 yards in the first meetings versus the Vikings.

LINE HISTORY: The struggling Vikings opened the week as 6.5-home chalk, but bettors early in the week were backing Chicago and the line was bet down to 4.5. Since, the line has rebounded and currently sits at 6. The total opened at a low 41 and has been bet up to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Vikings are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 13-3 in Vikings last 16 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+3.5, 42.5)

The decision to bench Taylor, who threw for 3,023 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions, appears to be a financial one and not the call of interim coach Doug Whaley. Manuel has played sparingly since entering the league in 2013, throwing just six passes this season, and he may be without running back LeSean McCoy (1,257 yards rushing, 14 total touchdowns), who missed practice during the week due to an illness. Top wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who battled through for a foot injury to post season highs of seven catches for 154 yards last week, also is listed as questionable.

Fitzpatrick went 24-for-34 for 374 yards and a touchdown as the Jets knocked off the Bills 37-31 in the second game of the season to gain a bit of revenge for their loss to Buffalo the previous season that knocked New York out of the playoff picture. Since then, Fitzpatrick has become more a punch line, completing 55.8 percent of his passes with 17 interceptions on the season. And, many of New York's top skill position players are all questionable -- running backs Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are battling knee injuries and wideout Brandon Marshall has a slew of injuries that may sideline him for the finale.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers don’t really care who the coach of the Bills is, opening them as 6-point road favorites in this AFC matchup. Since then, the line has seen some Jets action bringing it down to 3.5. The total opened at 45 and bettors like the Under, moving the number down to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 7-1 in Bills last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Jets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 42.5)

Dez Bryant stepped up with a pair of receiving touchdowns and even threw a left-handed scoring strike to veteran tight end Jason Witten in last week's mauling of the Lions. The duo also shined bright in the first meeting with Philadelphia, as Bryant had four receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown and Witten reeled in a 5-yard scoring catch in overtime as Dallas posted a 29-23 victory on Oct. 30. Witten, who resides 26 yards shy of Michael Irvin's franchise record (11,904), ranks second all-time among tight ends in receptions (1,088) and receiving yards.

Wentz's favorite target, Jordan Matthews, may not be able to suit up as he missed his second consecutive day of practice on Thursday due to an ankle injury. Matthews reeled in a career-high 11 receptions for just 65 yards and a touchdown against Dallas in October and has 26 catches for 278 yards and three scores in his last three encounters with the Cowboys. Matthews was limited to two catches for 12 yards but fellow wideout Nelson Agholor had a 40-yard touchdown grab in a 24-19 victory over the New York Giants last week to mark the first time he's reached the end zone since the season opener.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened the week as 3.5-home favorites as the Cowboys are expected to rest starters for the playoffs. Since then, bettors have bet that line up to 4.5. The total opened at 43 and hasn’t moved off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC East.
* Under is 13-3 in Cowboys last 16 road games.
* Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 vs. NFC East.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 42.5)

Cleveland is evaluating the players on its roster for next season and will take a long look at quarterback Robert Griffin III, who is out of the concussion protocol and expected to start on Sunday. Griffin is 58-of-107 for 654 yards and no touchdowns in an injury-plagued first season with the Browns but was sharp against the Chargers before getting knocked out of the game. "We have seen him get better from the first opportunity to the second to the third," coach Hue Jackson told reporters. "Hopefully, he can keep making jumps as you go, because that says a lot to me."

Pittsburgh is locked into the No. 3 spot in the AFC and a first-round date with Miami, and Roethlisberger already has his focus on that contest. "I’ll do whatever is needed," he told reporters of his plans this week. "Help (backup quarterback Landry Jones) prepare, do the Miami stuff or whoever, start preparing for the playoff game when I can." The Steelers' winning streak began at Cleveland in Week 11, when Bell piled up 201 total yards and a rushing touchdown in a 24-9 triumph.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North showdown as 10-point home favorites and that number was way to high for bettors as the line has been dropping all week settling at 5.5. The total opened 44.5 and has been inching down throughout the week down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Browns last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games in Week 17.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 46)

Cam Newton missed the team's first matchup of the season with a concussion, leaving Derek Anderson under center. Newton is once again on the injury report with a shoulder issue but is expected to play, as is tight end Greg Olsen (elbow), who also missed practice time during the week. The Panthers, however, won't have All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly, who will sit out his sixth straight game after suffering a concussion on Nov. 17, and wide receiver Devin Funchess, who was placed on injured reserve.

Martin, who was a Pro Bowl selection last season, left the team to enter a drug treatment program and is not the only back who will miss Sunday's game. Charles Sims was placed on the injured reserve with a pectoral injury, leaving Jacquizz Rodgers, who leads the team with 485 yards on 112 carries with two touchdowns, as the lead back. Tight end Cameron Brate (57 receptions, 661 yards, 8 touchdowns), in the midst of a breakout season, also is out with a back injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Buccaneers opened the week as 4-point home favorites over their NFC South division rival Panthers and that number was bet up as high as 6, before fading back to 4. The total opened at 47.5 and has been driven down to even 46. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-2 in Panthers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40.5)

Rookie Will Fuller reeled in seven receptions for 81 yards with a touchdown and exploded for a 67-yard punt return for a score in a 27-20 win over the Titans on Oct. 2. Fellow wideout DeAndre Hopkins was limited to his worst showing of the season - one catch for four yards - and has been held to three receptions or fewer in three of his last four outings. Lamar Miller (1,073 yards) rolled up 108 yards from scrimmage (82 rushing, 26 receiving) in the first meeting, but could give away to Alfred Blue after missing his second straight practice with an ankle injury.

After mustering just five victories combined in its last two seasons, Tennessee sees the beauty of recording its first winning season since 2011 should it avoid a loss on Sunday. "You can carry that momentum for the following season," said outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, who has a team-leading 10.5 sacks this season and recorded at least one in two of his last three encounters with Houston. "You've got to finish strong, you've got to finish on a high note so you can kind of just pick up where you left off." DeMarco Murray would love to do precisely that, as the 28-year-old has rushed for an NFL third-best 1,266 yards while two of his nine touchdowns came in the first meeting with Houston.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 3-point home faves and have been bet up to 3.5. The total opened at 40.5 and hasn’t moved off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC South.
* Titans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans last 5 games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Texans are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (PK, 41.5)

The finale marks what likely will be the final career game for wide receiver Steve Smith Sr., who says he is "89 percent sure" he will retire. "There will be mourning," Smith told reporters. "There will be a lot of emotions. Also, there are a lot of other things I can grasp on that you can't take away. That I can hold on to. Whether you want to or not, you're going to move on. That's part of life." The 37-year-old is one of 11 players in NFL history with at least 1,000 receptions and 14,000 yards, and he leads Baltimore's receivers with five touchdown catches this season.

Cincinnati could be saying goodbye to Andrew Whitworth, a 35-year-old tackle who is a free agent after the season. However, the Bengals don't plan to say farewell to coach Marvin Lewis, who took the team to the playoffs each of the previous five seasons and shot down retirement rumors this week. "I'll be back in 2017," Lewis told SiriusXM radio after causing a stir while refusing to answer that question during his weekly press conference.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this game as 2.5-point home favorites, but bettors are backing the Ravens here moving the line to a pick’em. The total opened at 41 and has been bet up to 41.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC North.
* Bengals are 1-7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in Bengals last 7 games overall.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 56.5)

New Orleans remains one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, as Drew Brees leads the NFL in passing yards (4,858) and has thrown for 35 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. The offense has torched the last two opponents, with much of the damage being done by Brees and top target Brandin Cooks, who has 12 receptions for 284 yards and two touchdowns in the that span. The Saints’ downfall, as usual, has been a porous defense that has done a decent job against the run but been exposed in the secondary.

Matt Ryan has put up MVP-like numbers of his own, passing for 4,613 yards with 34 touchdowns and just seven interceptions to post a league-best quarterback rating. Ryan is surrounded by weapons, with star receiver Julio Jones (76 receptions, 1,313 yards, 5 TDs) and a solid backfield duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman leading the way. Atlanta’s defense has given up its share of yardage but also has come up with big plays when needed, including a league-high 14 1/2 sacks from linebacker Vic Beasley.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons still in the hunt for a first round bye opened the week as 6.5-point favorites and that number has grown to 7.5. The total opened at 55.5 and has been inching up all week currently is sitting at 56.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
* Falcons are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Falcons last 16 games overall.
* Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.

New York Giants at Washington (-7.5, 45)

Pro Bowl cornerback Janoris Jenkins (back) missed his first game of the season in a 24-19 loss to Philadelphia and could be a spectator again versus Cousins and Washington's high-powered offense. Jenkins has been limited in practice this week and New York could exercise caution with little on the line Sunday. "I ain't going to say yeah. I ain't going to say no," the 28-year-old Jenkins said on if he'll play versus the Redskins. "Just preparing on getting ready and take this week as a game week as if I'm starting. I don't know the call or whatever."

Tight end Jordan Reed participated in practice Thursday without any obvious discomfort with his injured left shoulder, giving coach Jay Gruden optimism and Cousins another weapon in the team's third-ranked offense (411.3 yards per game). "The big thing is making sure he has the confidence where he can extend his arm and do all the things necessary to separate from defenders," Gruden said. "He's on the right track." Wideouts DeSean Jackson and Jamison Crowder have been on the fast track, with the former amassing 327 receiving yards and a touchdown in the last three games while the latter has three scores in his past four at home.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and has moved as high as 8 and as low as 7, before returning to the number is started at. Oddsmakers opened the line at 44 and has since been bet up one point to 45. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Washington are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Washington last 9 home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Washington last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5, 43)

Seattle likely will have Thomas Rawls at its disposal in the finale, as the running back fully participated in practice on Wednesday and Thursday after leaving last week's loss to Arizona with a shoulder injury. Rawls rushed for a career-best 209 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with San Francisco this season. Safety Kam Chancellor also was a full participant on Thursday and figures to play against the 49ers after briefly going down with an ankle injury versus the Cardinals.

San Francisco still is in the running for the first overall pick in the 2017 draft, as it would receive the selection with a loss and an unlikely victory over Pittsburgh by the 1-14 Cleveland Browns. Defensive end DeForest Buckner has recorded three sacks over his last three games and is second among NFC rookies with six. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for career highs of 988 yards and six touchdowns, was placed on injured reserve after suffering a sprained MCL against the Rams last week while defensive lineman Zach Moore was claimed off waivers from Dallas.

LINE HISTORY: The struggling 49ers opened this game as 9.5-point home dogs and that line has been bet up to 10. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 9-1 in 49ers last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Seahawks are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-1.5, 40.5)

With McGloin under center, Oakland likely will try to emulate its game plan from last month's victory over Broncos, when Latavius Murray rushed for 114 yards and three touchdowns to lead a ground game that churned out 218 yards. Murray managed only 40 yards on 15 carries in last week's win over the Colts and was replaced in the second half by rookie DeAndre Washington, who scampered for 99 yards and a pair of 22-yard touchdown runs on 12 carries. McGloin also has key weapons on the outside in wide receivers Amari Cooper (84 catches, 1,114 yards, 4 TDs) and Michael Crabtree (84, 957, 8 TDs). Defensive end Khalil Mack had two of his 11 sacks against Denver in November.

Siemian has struggled the past two weeks, getting the offense in the end zone only once, which is a reason why Kubiak is giving him the start before Lynch comes on in relief. "I want him to get the Kansas City taste out of his mouth. It was a tough outing," Kubiak said of Siemian's performance in last week's 33-10 loss to the Chiefs. "But also Paxton is going to play. I'm going to prepare them both." Lynch, the No. 26 overall pick out of Memphis, has made three appearances (two starts) this season, completing 49 of 83 for 487 yards with a pair of touchdowns and one interception. Denver will be without linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who was placed on injured reserve on Wednesday.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened this game as 3.5-point road pups and there has been action on both sides since. The line moved down to a pick’em, but moved back to the current number on +1.5. The total opened at 40.5 and hasn’t moved off that number all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Broncos are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 vs. AFC West.
* Favorite is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (+6.5, 40.5)

Johnson has been one of the few bright spots in a dark year for Arizona, setting an NFL record by gaining 100 or more yards from scrimmage in 15 straight games to start a campaign while joining Barry Sanders as the only players in league history to hit the mark in 15 consecutive contests in a single season. The 25-year-old is the fourth player ever to register at least 1,200 yards rushing (1,233) and 800 receiving (841) in the same season and has tied Eric Dickerson and Edgerrin James for the most multi-touchdown performances over their first two NFL campaigns (11). Larry Fitzgerald, who enters the finale trailing Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown (106) by four receptions for the league lead, could be playing in his last game as he is contemplating retirement.

Offense has been the major problem for Los Angeles in 2016, as it is last in the league in total offense (272 yards per game), 31st in rushing (72.1) and 30th in passing (192). With poor offense comes minimal scoring, as evidenced by the team's last-place ranking in total points (218) and points per game (14.5), and it has been held to 10 or fewer in eight of its 15 contests. One of the only positives for the Rams this season has been Johnny Hekker, who enters the finale with an NFL single-season record of 50 punts inside the 20-yard line.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened this NFC West showdown as touchdown home pups, but was quickly bet down to 6 before rebounding to 6.5. The total opened at 40.5 and briefly rose to an even 41 than faded back to the opening 40.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Rams are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.
* Under is 8-1 in Rams last 9 vs. NFC West.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+4.5, 44.5)

Kansas City’s offense has appeared pedestrian at times, but quarterback Alex Smith is surrounded with enough weapons to do some damage. Spencer Ware needs 79 rushing yards to become the 10th different player in franchise history to top 1,000 in a season, tight end Travis Kelce is having a huge campaign and dynamic rookie Tyreek Hill is a threat to score every time he touches the ball while continuing to take on a larger role. The defense has had its share of trouble stopping the run, but a league-best 31 takeaways and a relentless pass rush have helped keep points off the board.

San Diego’s passing game remains dangerous despite the fact Rivers has lost many of his top targets to injuries throughout the season. The ground game has not been as effective, but Melvin Gordon needs just three yards on the ground to become the fourth different player in team history with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season. A whopping 33 turnovers often have put the defense in bad situations, but the unit has come up with plenty of big plays, as cornerback Casey Hayward leads the league with seven interceptions and defensive end Joey Bosa’s 9 1/2 sacks are the most among NFL rookies.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened this AFC West battle as 4-point road favorites and was bet up as high as 6 early in the week, before fading back to 4. The total opened at 45 and has been bet down half-point to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Chiefs last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 10-2-1 in Chargers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

**Udog** · 01-01-2017, 10:11 AM

NFL

Sunday, January 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday Night Football Betting Preview: Packers at Lions
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Both teams will get into the postseason if the Washington Redskins lose at home to the New York Giants, otherwise there are myriad playoff possibilities.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 49.5)

The final regular-season game of the 2016 will determine the NFC North Division champion but both combatants -- the host Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers -- could be assured of playoff berths before kickoff on Sunday night. The surging Packers have ripped off five consecutive victories to move into a tie atop the division with Detroit, which is trying to avoid a third straight defeat.

Both teams will get into the postseason if the Washington Redskins lose at home to the New York Giants, otherwise there are myriad playoff possibilities. The Lions, who have been dominated in back-to-back losses to the Giants and Dallas, have an outside chance to earn a first-round bye while Green Bay cannot finish higher than the No. 3 seed in the NFC. Detroit needs to find a way to contain Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw four touchdowns in a 34-27 win in Week 3 and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week after tossing four scoring passes in a 38-25 victory over Minnesota. "He plays the game in a unique way, probably different than any quarterback in the league," Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford said of Rodgers, who threw a 61-yard Hail Mary pass on the final play of the game to shock Detroit in his last appearance at Ford Field.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-3) - Lions (0.5) + home field (-3) = Lions -0.5

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 3.5-point home dogs and that number has faded half-point to a field goal. The total opened at 48 and has been bet up 1.5 points to the current number of 49.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We opened the Packers as 3 point favs heading into this matchup early this week and took heavy public action on that number forcing us to move up to -3.5 where we took some sharp action on the Lions to cover the +3.5, that pushed as back down Packers -3. We have since moved back to Packers -3.5 with over 70% of the action on the Packers to cover.”

INJURY REPORT:

Green Bay - QB Aaron Rodgers (probable, neck), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), CB Damarious Randall (questionable, shoulder), LB Joe Thomas (questionable, back), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), WR Randall Cobb (questionable, ankle), CB Ladarius Gunter (questionable, elbow), OT Bryan Bulaga (questionable, shoulder), RB James Starks (doubtful, concussion)

Detroit - QB Matthew Stafford (probable, finger), WR Anquan Boldin (probable, finger), WR Andre Roberts (questionable, shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (questionable, knee), C Travis Swanson (questionable, concussion), CB Darius Slay (questionable, hamstring), RB Theo Riddick (out, wrist), DT Stefan Charles (IR, knee), RB Ameer Abdullah (questionable, foot)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 9-6 OU): Rodgers is making good on his proclamation the Green Bay could run the table after a four-game skid left the Packers sitting at 4-6, and he's done his best to make it happen with 11 scoring passes and zero interceptions during the winning streak. Rodgers has an NFL-high 36 touchdown passes and 14 of them have gone to Jordy Nelson, who is coming off a monster performance with nine catches for 154 yards and a pair of scores against Minnesota and also went over 100 yards and two TDs versus Detroit in Week 3. Converted running back Ty Montgomery has boosted the ground game but the key could be the defense. The Packers rank 29th against the pass at 265.1 yards per game.

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS, 5-10 OU): Stafford has posted three of his four lowest passer ratings over the past three games, tossing four interceptions against one touchdown since injuring the middle finger on his throwing hand, but he blamed the miscues more on poor decision-making than the injury. Running back Theo Riddick (wrist) has missed the past three games and did not practice Thursday, but Zach Zenner provided a spark to the running game with 67 yards and two touchdowns on 12 rushes last week. Top cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) missed last week's game but practiced on a

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
* Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 vs. NFC.
* Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Packers are getting 64 percent of the wagers from users and the over is getting 69 percent of the Over/Under action

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**Udog** · 01-02-2017, 12:11 PM

Giants at Packers best matchup as opening lines released for wild-card weekend

"(Giants at Packers) will no doubt be the most popular game at the betting windows.”

It took until the final minutes of the final game of the regular season, late Sunday night, but the seedings and the matchups are all set for wild-card weekend next Saturday and Sunday. We talk with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, about the opening lines on the quartet of postseason contests.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (Open: -2.5; Move: -3)

Oakland went into its regular-season finale at Denver with a chance to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed, stick at the No. 2 seed or drop to the No. 5 seed. The Raiders, minus star quarterback Derek Carr (broken leg), ended up with the worst of those scenarios. New starter Matt McGloin was hurt in the first half Sunday, rookie Connor Cook finished it out, and Oakland never got going in a 24-6 loss as a 1-point underdog.

So a team that went 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) will be on the road as a wild card against AFC South champion Houston, in a 4:35 p.m. Eastern kickoff on Saturday.

The Texans (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) lost to Tennessee 24-17 as a 3-point road ‘dog Sunday. Despite that loss – along with that of new starting QB Tom Savage to a first-half concussion, putting erstwhile starter Brock Osweiler back on the field – the Texans opened -2.5 at the Superbook and were quickly bet up to 3 late Sunday night.

“Oakland looks defeated, but we’ve seen this Texans team lose this game before,” Kornegay said, alluding to last year’s wild-card round, in which host Houston got blown out by Kansas City 30-0 catching 3 points.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (Open: -7; Move: -7.5)

Seattle alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven weeks, but it was still enough to win the NFC West and earn the No. 3 seed. On Sunday, the Seahawks (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) erased an early 14-3 deficit to lowly San Francisco and held on for a 25-23 victory as a hefty 11.5-point road chalk.

Detroit could have been that No. 3 seed, or at least the No. 4 seed, were it not for an 0-3 SU and ATS skid to end the regular season. On Sunday night, in that aforementioned final game, the Lions fell to Green Bay 31-24 as a 3.5-point home pup. That dropped the Lions (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) to the No. 6 seed as a wild card.
Much like the Texans line, this one went up a half-point shortly after it was posted, to Seattle -7.5 for Saturday’s 8:15 p.m. Eastern matchup.

“Detroit looks like Oakland, except they still have their starting quarterback,” Kornegay said, while noting the Seahawks’ inconsistent play of late. “Seattle isn’t the team we’ve seen before. The Seahawks are definitely vulnerable.”

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (Open: -9.5; Move -10)

Pittsburgh is arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, along with AFC No. 1 seed New England and perhaps Green Bay. The Steelers (11-5, 9-6-1) were 4-5 in mid-November, but haven’t lost since then, ripping off seven consecutive wins (5-1-1 ATS). In Sunday’s meaningless finale, Pittsburgh rested Ben Roethlisberger and fell behind Cleveland 14-0, but rallied for a 27-24 overtime victory to push as a 3-point home favorite.

Miami (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) made a 7-1 SU run to clinch a wild-card spot after Week 16, then got blasted by New England in Week 17, losing 35-14 as a 7.5-point home pup. The Superbook expects it to be tough sledding to draw Miami money this week, even with the high opening number for Sunday’s 1 p.m. Eastern kick.

“I might have to give out a free beer with every Dolphins bet to attract money on them,” Kornegay said. “I stocked up and have my 12-pack ready!”

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Open -4.5; Move: -3.5)

Several weeks ago, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers intimated his 4-5 team could win out. Then the Packers did just that. On Sunday, the Pack completed a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS surge by beating Detroit 31-24 giving 3.5 points on the road to clinch the NFC North crown at 10-6 SU (9-6-1 ATS).

Meanwhile, New York went on an 8-1 SU spree (7-2 ATS) from mid-October to mid-December. The Giants (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) slipped up at Philadelphia in Week 16, but with nothing on the line Sunday, they capped the season with a 19-10 victory at Washington as a 9-point underdog.

“Best matchup of wild-card weekend could be a doozy,” Kornegay said of this 4:30 p.m. Eastern Sunday clash. “The Giants have a lot of confidence going into Green Bay. The Packers will have to overcome injuries to defensive backs (Quinten Rollins, Makinton Dorleant). This will no doubt be the most popular game at the betting windows.”

Wiseguys are advising that these NFL wild-card lines are going to move

Early betting has favored the Dolphins, with the public perhaps thinking that any time a playoff team is getting double-digits, it’s worth a sniff.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Green Bay (-3.5)

Since mid-October the Giants have been one of the best teams in the league, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. The surge started, coincidentally, after New York went into Lambeau and laid an egg in Week 5 – being held without a touchdown until late in the game and passing for only 178 yards against a Packers defense that gives up 270 yards per game through the air. NY’s problem is that the Packers are also playing better. The NFC North champs come in with six straight wins (three of which came against playoff teams), and the Packers have scored more than 30 points in each of their last four games. This one could tilt toward the Giants if they can get to Aaron Rodgers, but NY was just middle of the pack in total team sacks this season (34). With equal money on both teams, the 3.5 line is unlikely to budge.

Game to wait on

Miami at Pittsburgh (-10)

Early betting has favored the Dolphins, with the public perhaps thinking that any time a playoff team is getting double-digits, it’s worth a sniff. Yes, Miami did look awful against the Patriots in their final regular-season game – but the Patriots (8-0 on the road this season) tend to do that to opponents. And Pittsburgh’s defense is nowhere near as good as New England’s, so Miami should at least be able to move the ball against the Steelers’ mediocre D. Pittsburgh will no doubt be game-planning all week in an effort to prevent a repeat of their Oct. 16 game in Miami, when Jay Ajayi went off for 204 yards and Miami won easily. There are rumblings that starting QB Ryan Tannehill might be back for this one, and there might not be a decision until late in the week, or even just prior to kickoff. So unless you’re a huge Matt Moore fan, it might be a good idea to hang on for a bit before wagering.

Total to watch

Oakland at Houston (37)

Anyone with a spare quarterback is asked to contact the Raiders or Texans immediately. Oakland is down to QB No. 3 (rookie Connor Cook) after Sunday’s injury to backup Matt McGloin. Houston is somewhat better off, with backup Tom Savage apparently OK after suffering a head injury on Sunday. Oddsmakers don’t figure any QB will light it up too much this weekend and have set one of the lowest totals of the year. One book has the number as low at 36.5, which is unheard of in today’s NFL.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sunday, January 1)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 17 (Sunday, January 1)

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