NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Bowl Season (Saturday, December 17 - Monday, January 9)

[Udog]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

National Championship

Monday, January 9

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CLEMSON (13 - 1) vs. ALABAMA (14 - 0) - 1/9/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ALABAMA is 54-28 ATS (+23.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
ALABAMA is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEMSON is 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CLEMSON is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against CLEMSON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

National Championship

Mon – Jan. 9

Clemson at Alabama, 8:00 PM ET
Clemson: 5-20 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games
Clemson: 13-28 ATS after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Alabama: 7-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game
Alabama: 10-2 ATS after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game

Clemson: 8-1 OVER in road games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins
Alabama: 19-6 OVER as a neutral field favorite
Alabama: 22-10 OVER in road games after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games
Alabama: 29-13 OVER in road games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games




NCAAF

National Championship

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Trend Report
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Monday, January 9

8:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. ALABAMA
Clemson is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Clemson's last 5 games
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Alabama's last 7 games


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

National Championship

Monday, January 9

Clemson @ Alabama

Game 151-152
January 9, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Clemson
115.711
Alabama
120.311
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 4 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 7
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Clemson
(+7); Over

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, January 9

National title game, Tampa: Clemson-Alabama
Alabama is 14-0 this season; they covered seven of last eight games, with only win all year by less than 10 points 48-43 at Ole Miss on Sept 12. Sarkisian replaces Kiffin as OC, not sure if that has any effect at all. Clemson outgained Alabama 550-473 in 45-40 loss to Crimson Tide in national title game LY; Watson threw for 405 yards in a losing cause. Tigers lost 43-42 at home to Pitt on Nov 12, then scored 41 pts/game in winning its four games since- they covered only game as an underdog this year, beating Louisville 42-36. Crimson Tide is 3-2 in last five bowls, scoring 31+ points in all five games- Crimson Tide covered last seven I-A games; they beat LSU 10-0 in only game with single digit spread this year. Bama has a freshman QB, but they do well no matter who QB is. Clemson is 2-2 this year in games with a single digit spread. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Clemson games, 2-4 in last six Alabama games.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Monday, January 9

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College Football National Championship betting preview: Clemson vs. Alabama
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Can Clemson get its revenge against Alabama when they meet in the national title game for the second straight year. Clemson is currently a 6.5-point underdog.

No. 2 Clemson Tigers vs No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-6.5, 50.5)

Game to be played at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, Florida

Top-seeded Alabama looks to claim its fifth national title in 10 seasons under Nick Saban when it battles second-seeded Clemson in Monday's College Football Playoff championship contest at Tampa, Fla. It is a rematch of last season's title game in which the Crimson Tide prevailed 45-40 despite a huge game by Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson (405 yards passing, 73 rushing). Alabama is attempting to record its 27th consecutive victory while Clemson is pursuing its second national title and first since 1981.

Watson passed for 259 yards and one touchdown while adding two rushing scores in Clemson's 31-0 rout of Ohio State in the semifinals, and he has a major advantage in experience over counterpart Jalen Hurts. Watson, who finished second in this season's Heisman Trophy balloting and third in 2015, has passed for 4,173 yards and 38 touchdowns this campaign but also is prone to miscues, as evidenced by his 17 interceptions. Hurts has accounted for 34 scores (22 passing, 12 rushing) and is aiming to join Oklahoma's Jamelle Holieway (1985) as the only true freshman quarterbacks to lead a team to a national title, but he passed for only 57 yards in the Crimson Tide's 24-7 semifinal victory over Washington.

Alabama made the odd move of separating itself from offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin after the win over Washington, as the new Florida Atlantic coach became a distraction while attempting to juggle two jobs. Saban was highly disappointed with the offensive showing against the Huskies and promoted offensive analyst Steve Sarkisian to offensive coordinator, insisting it will be a smooth transition. "I just feel like I have to make decisions about what's best for the players to have the best chance of being successful," Saban told reporters. "You know, we made the decision and we're not talking about it anymore. We're moving forward. We're looking forward, and everybody is doing everything they can to support the people that are here now to make it work."

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Alabama opened as 6-point favorites, that number wasn’t high enough for bettors and has been bet up a full point to 7. The total opened at 53 and has been slowly fading all week down to 50. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: A rematch from last year’s title game find the same spread only Alabama is the undefeated team this year, and Clemson the one-loss opponent. The Tide should feel confident knowing they are 44-5 SU as a No. 1 ranked team under Nick Saban, while the Tigers are a dazzling 5-0 ATS as bowl dogs versus SEC opponents. The question is can Alabama extend its all-time 13-0 school mark against Clemson, or do the Tigers avenge last year’s loss tonight?

WHAT BOOKS SAY: ""There hasn't been a lot of sharp money show up yet, but what has was early and on Alabama. The action is really starting to pick up and while most of the public has been on Clemson, we are starting seeing a good bit of Bama bets. Currently, more than 65 percent of the wagers are on Clemson but the money is almost even. The under is carrying 72 percent of the handle."

WEATHER REPORT: The weather is expected to be perfect for football Monday night in Tampa Bay with clear skies and temperatures in the mid-50’s at kick off.

INJURY REPORT:

Clemson - DE Richard Yeargin (Questionable, knee), WR Trevion Thompson (Questionable, wrist), CB Adrian Baker (Doubtful, knee), OT Jake Fruhmorgen (Doubtful, shoulder), OT Chandler Reeves (Out indefinitely, knee), WR Adrien Dunn (Out for season, knee), CB Brian Dawkins (Out indefinitely, knee).

Alabama - DL Dakota Ball (Out indefinitely, finger), LB Shaun Dion Hamilton (Out for season, knee), OL Josh Casher (Out for season, foot), OL Alphonse Taylor (Out indefinitely, concussion), RB B.J. Emmons (Out indefinitely, foot), DB Eddie Jackson (Out for season, leg).

ABOUT CLEMSON (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS, 7-7 O/U): Watson threw three or more touchdown passes on seven occasions and topped 300 yards six times while fueling a powerful offense that averaged 39.5 points and scored over 40 seven times. Juniors Mike Williams (90 receptions, 1,267 yards, 10 touchdowns) and Artavis Scott (73 catches) form a potent one-two receiving combo while junior running back Wayne Gallman rushed for 1,087 yards and 16 scores. The Tigers' defense allows averages of 17.1 points and 306.9 yards per game but features weak-side linebacker Ben Boulware (team-best 121 tackles), defensive tackle Carlos Watkins (team-high 10.5 sacks) and strong safety Jadar Johnson (team-leading five interceptions) - all seniors.

ABOUT ALABAMA (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Bo Scarbrough is the squad's third-leading rusher (719 yards) behind fellow sophomore Damien Harris (1,013) and Hurts (891), but he'll play a major role after rushing for two touchdowns and a Crimson Tide bowl-record 180 yards against Washington. Clemson's defense certainly will be paying close attention to senior tight end O.J. Howard (41 catches, 489 yards, two touchdowns) after he made five catches for a career-best 208 yards and two TDs while winning Offensive MVP honors in last year's national title game. Senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (9.5 sacks, two fumble-return scores) won the Nagurski Trophy as the nation's top defensive player and, along with sophomore strong safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (team-best six interceptions), is among the standouts for a unit that scored 11 defensive touchdowns (six interceptions, five fumbles) and leads the nation in both scoring defense (11.4 points per game) and total defense (244 yards).

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 bowl games.
* Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.
* Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games in January.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing Clemson with 60 percent of users taking the underdog Tigers. As for the total, Over is getting 60 percent of the action.


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[Udog]

NCAAF National championship biggest betting mismatches

The Crimson Tide's relentless run defense should have a field day against Clemson's struggling run game.

Here are three mismatches bettors should consider heading into the 2017 national title game:

Tigers' turnover troubles vs. Crimson Tide's ball-hawking prowess

Clemson was a force on both sides of the football over the course of the season, and that was on full display in its 31-0 waxing of Ohio State in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day. The Tigers dominated the Buckeyes in total yards (470-215) and first downs (24-9) while holding Ohio State to just 3-of-16 on third and fourth downs. But Clemson did have two turnovers in the rout, and can't afford to be so careless in the national championship game.

The Tigers might have been elite in a number of areas this season, but turnover differential wasn't one of them. Clemson was an ordinary +1 in turnover margin for the season, and would have been dead even were it not for a 3-2 edge vs. Ohio State. Standout quarterback Deshaun Watson racked up 4,173 passing yards and 38 touchdowns, but finished second among FBS QBs in interceptions (17) and has thrown multiple picks in five different games this season.

That could spell serious trouble against a Crimson Tide defense that made life miserable for opponents all season long. Alabama finished tied for ninth in the FBS in turnovers forced at 27 - even with the Tigers - and had three in a 24-7 triumph over Washington in their national semifinal. In a game in which the Crimson Tide struggled to move the football - compiling just 326 total yards against the Huskies - those turnovers made the difference.

Yet, while Alabama and Clemson were even in forcing turnovers, the Crimson Tide took much better care of the football on offense, turning the ball over just 19 times. That +8 turnover differential was tied for the 17th-best rate in the FBS, and speaks to the success quarterback Jalen Hurts had at limiting mistakes; he had a minuscule nine interceptions on the season, and threw multiple picks just twice. If he can execute a similar game plan Monday, Alabama should win the turnover battle.

Clemson's penalty problems vs. Alabama's superior discipline

It isn't uncommon to see great teams succeed despite struggling with penalties - just look at the Oakland Raiders, who were far and away the most penalized team in the National Football League over the course of the regular season but still made the playoffs. Of course, you can get away with those sorts of things against inferior opponents, but more often than not, a lack of discipline against an elite opponent can spell disaster - and that's a major concern for Clemson on Monday night.

The Tigers struggled mightily with penalties during the season, racking up the 21st-most infractions in the nation (92) while ranking 90th in fewest penalty yards per contest (59.64). In its three games against ranked opponents during the season, it averaged 7.7 penalties for 69.3 yards; it won those three contests by a combined 16 points, mostly because its foes were even more undisciplined - averaging 10.7 penalties for 101.3 yards. In the loss to Pittsburgh, Clemson had nine penalties for 101 yards.

The Tigers might have escaped with wins over Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech thanks in large part to their opponents' penalty struggles, but they likely won't get away with that against the Crimson Tide. Alabama finished in the middle of the pack in total penalties (77), but those infractions were far less damaging - the Crimson Tide compiled just 578 penalty yards through their first 14 games, good for an average of 41.29 yards per contest - 15th-best in the FBS.

No stretch better epitomizes Alabama's elite discipline than the three-game span in which it faced national powers Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU from mid-October to early November. The Crimson Tide incurred just 18 penalties for a minuscule 111 yards, winning those three games by a combined score of 92-24. Few teams can maintain a high level of defense while avoiding flags like Alabama, which has a decided advantage if the game is decided by penalties.

Gallman's dismal December vs. Crimson Tide's relentless run D

No one can deny that Clemson running back Wayne Gallman was one of the catalysts for the Tigers' sensational season, compiling 1,087 yards on 218 carries while adding 16 touchdowns on the ground - tied for 15th-most in the nation. Gallman has five 100-yard efforts on the year, and comes into the national championship game having scored 11 times in his previous seven games. But recent history isn't in his favor, particularly with a brutal Alabama defense waiting for him in Tampa.

Gallman was far from his best in the regular-season finale at Virginia Tech, turning 17 carries into a modest 59 yards and a score. He couldn't get untracked against a solid Hokies defense, and was only slightly better against the Buckeyes, finishing with 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. He averaged a ho-hum 4.1 yards in those two December games - and if you take out consecutive carries of 20 and 18 yards against Ohio State on the opening two plays of the fourth quarter, that average falls to 3.2.

Clemson is going to need their junior workhorse to be much more effective against the Crimson Tide - and that isn't going to be easy. Alabama is in a league of its own when it comes to rushing defense, leading the nation in opponent yards per carry (2.0) and yards per game (62.0). The Crimson Tide allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season; no other team surrendered fewer than five, and only nine other schools limited foes to double-digit scores.

How tall a task does Gallman face? His own co-offensive coordinator, Tony Elliott, believes all eleven Alabama starters on defense will wind up being taken in the NFL draft. The Crimson Tide D limited Gallman to 45 yards on 14 carries in last year's national title game, and is even better heading into the rematch. Watson should be able to cause havoc with his rushing ability, but unless Gallman can break a big one, he's likely going to be in for a long day.

[Udog]

College Football Playoff Title Game Trends

Three teams have entered national championship title games off a SU underdog wins. Clemson fits that bill this year,

And then there was one.

One team will be left standing at the conclusion of the 2017 College Football Championship game Monday evening, either last year’s champion Alabama, or last year’s runner-up Clemson.

From our all-knowing database, presented below are some of the more notable findings. Enjoy the game.

How They Got Here

Ironically, while the pointspread on this year’s game is the same as last year’s title game - Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite - the record of the two teams has reversed.

The Tide enters as the 13-0 undefeated favorite, whereas the Tigers were the 13-0 undefeated underdog last year.

Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide began the season as the AP preseason No. 1 ranked team and sailed undefeated into the championship game. On the flip side, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers suffered their only defeat in a one-point shootout loss against Pittsburgh.

It should be noted that undefeated AP preseason No. 1 ranked teams have gone 3-7 SU and ATS in bowl games since 1980, including Alabama’s win over Washington in the Peach Bowl this season.

Title Game Tendencies

Looking back at the BCS championship and College Football Playoff title games, undefeated teams have been a 50-50 proposition, going 10-10 straight up (SU) and 10-10 against the spread (ATS) since the first BCS title fight in 1999.

However, spotless teams are only 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when facing a foe off consecutive SU/ATS wins.

In another twist, three teams have entered national championship title games off a SU underdog wins. All three have managed to take home the money.

Conference and Team Trends

Alabama stands 12-3 SU against ACC opposition since 1980, with 10 of the twelve wins by double-digit margins.

The SEC is 5-6 SUATS in bowl games this season, while the ACC is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS – including 2-0 SUATS versus the SEC.

Clemson is 3-13 SU in its last sixteen games against the SEC, but 8-3 ATS as dogs of more than 3 points in those games.

Coaches DNA

As expected, both coaches bring plenty of cred into this affair.

Nick Saban is 44-5 SU in games with the Tide in which they are ranked No. 1 in the polls. In addition, Saban is 88-15 SU and 59-39 ATS in games in which his teams are undefeated, including 33-14 ATS against opponents his team defeated in a most recent meeting.

Dabo Swinney is 10-6 SUATS against undefeated opposition, including 6-1 ATS when the Tigers are taking points. In addition, Swinney is 3-0 ATS with rest when tackling SEC foes.

Still Perfect After All These Years

Alabama is 13-0 all-time against Clemson since 1905.