NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 15 (Thursday, December 15 - Monday, December 19)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 15 of the Westgate SuperContest:

6) Patriots (430) -3.5- W

5) Lions (433) +4- L

4) Ravens (456) -5.5- L

3) Raiders (501) -3- T

2) Buccaneers (593) +6.5- W

1) Steelers (603) -3- W

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Giants 17, Lions 6— Seattle jumps Detroit into #2 seed in NFC after an inept offensive performance by Lions in their 3rd (and last) outdoor game of year. Giants are 8-1 in last nine games, now head on road to Philly/Washington to end season. Last eight Detroit games stayed under the total, as have last six Giant games.

Steelers 24, Bengals 20— Bengals led 20-6 wth 2:51 left in first half, but Steelers kicked FG’s on five consecutive drives, then finally scored TD and won/covered fifth game in row, with four of those wins on road- they’ve now won seven of last eight games with Cincinnati. Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this season.

Ravens 27, Eagles 26— Eagles scored TD with 0:04 left, went for two points and the win, a play I just disagree with, especially on road with a rookie QB who had just run for a TD. Tennessee did it, failed but wound up winning anyway. Philly has now lost nine of last ten games after a 3-0 start; they’re 1-7 on road. Ravens won its last five home games (4-1 vs spread).

Every TV announcer “loves the aggressive nature of going for two” in that spot. Without fail, they cover the coach’s butt by saying that, but I disagree. Let your entire team decide the game.

Packers 30, Bears 27— Green Bay blew a 27-10 4th quarter lead, but Rodgers hit Jordy Nelson with a 60-yard bomb to set up the GW field goal with 0:03 left. Packers have now won last seven games in Chicago, but Bears have to like what they see out of 3rd-string QB Barkley.

if Dallas wins Sunday night, Packers are tied with Tampa Bay for last Wild Card slot.

Colts 34, Vikings 6— Stunning no-show by Minnesota that basically ends their season; game was 27-nil at the half. I spent 50 Sunday afternoons watching Sam Bradford play for the Rams, so I’m not totally surprised by all this, and the Norv Turner resignation should’ve raised the red flag about as high as it can go, that there were big problems with this team.

Bills 33, Browns 13— Worst thing for the Browns is that they still have zero idea who their QB is as they move towards 2017. Cleveland is 2-12 vs spread; ’08 Lions went 0-16, but were 7-9 against spread. In its last four games, Cleveland was outscored 65-9 in first half. Buffalo is 7-1 if they allow 21 or less points, 0-6 if they allow more. Over is 11-2 in Buffalo’s last 13 games.

Titans 19, Chiefs 17— Chiefs led 14-0 after 10:31 of play but lost. Kansas City had the ball with 3:12 left up 17-16 and Tennessee had no timeouts left (other than 2:00 warning), but Chiefs couldn’t get a first down and lost 19-17 at home for the second time in five weeks (Bucs were other loss). Tennessee has now won four of last five games; they went for two-point conversion and the lead with 3:12 left, down 17-16 and won despite not getting it.

Texans 21, Jaguars 20— Houston benched Brock Osweiler after his second INT; he has $37M in guaranteed money coming his way. Bill O’Brien coached this game like he was getting fired if Houston misses the playoffs— Tom Savage may have saved O’Brien’s butt by leading this comeback that makes the Texans 6-1 at home this season. Jaguars lost their ninth game in a row; they fired coach Gus Bradley after the game- at least he’ll get to spend Christmas with his family.

Saints 48, Cardinals 41— 20 possessions in this game; 11 TD’s, three FG’s tried, not a lot of defense played. Cardinals have now allowed 30.9 pts/game their last seven games, giving up 22 TD’s on opponents’ last 72 drives. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 10-2 vs spread this season. Except for Seattle, NFC West has been a dumpster fire in 2016.

Falcons 41, 49ers 13— First three times they had the ball, Atlanta ran 22 plays for 157 yards and a quick 21-nil lead— Falcons coasted the rest of the way, running ball for 248 yards, throwing for 302. 49ers haven’t won since Week 1; they allowed 12.6 yards/pass attempt in this game. In their last three games, Niners have been outscored 52-0 in second half. I’m going to spend Christmas Eve in a sportsbook watching Rams-49ers; Feliz Navidad. Over is 12-2 in Falcon games this season.

Patriots 16, Broncos 3— In their last three games, Denver has two offensive TDs on 35 drives; we’re going to find out this winter how patient John Elway is. Will he go after Tony Romo and try to jumpstart his offense for 2017? Patriots won for just second time in last eight visits here. Under is 8-3 in last 11 Denver games, 4-1 in last five Patriot games.

Raiders 19, Chargers 16— Two years ago, Oakland went 3-13 with rookie Derek Carr at QB; things have improved for him. Oakland is 6-1 in true road games this year; they’re 8-1 in games decided by 7 or less points, thanks in large part to a +15 turnover ratio. San Diego is 1-7 in games decided by 7 or less points; their TO ratio is -6. There is a very fine line between winning and losing in the NFL.

Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 20— Prescott went 32-36/280 in this highly entertaining game; putting to rest any potential QB controversy. Jameis Winston is going to be really good; this was his first game in the brightest of NFL spotlights. Bucs’ 5-game win streak is snapped. Packer fans were rooting like hell for Dallas, Giant fans were rooting for Tampa Bay.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 19

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Carolina at Washington
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"It's not a game about him vs. us," Cam Newton said. "We just need to win this game."

Carolina Panthers at Washington (-6.5, 50.5)

How much of an impact Josh Norman's decision to leave Carolina via free agency had on the team will never be known, but one thing is certain: The Panthers will need a miracle to return to the postseason. Sitting three games out of the final playoff spot in the NFC with three to play, Carolina will pay a visit to Norman and the Washington Redskins on Monday night.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera said his team has "no room for error" and quarterback Cam Newton insisted going up against Norman, who signed a $75 million, five-year deal with the Redskins, is not part of the game plan. "It's not a game about him vs. us," Newton said. "We just need to win this game." Washington is not in as precarious a situation as Carolina but still faces an uphill climb, trailing Tampa Bay by one-half game for the sixth seed in the NFC. The Redskins suffered their worst loss of the 2015 season with a 44-16 beating at Carolina 13 months ago.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (2) - Washington (-1) + home field (-3) = Washington -2

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 4.5-home favorites and the public quickly jumped on the home team - bumping the line up two-full points to 6.5. The total hit the board at 51 and has been faded half-point to 50.5. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for FedEx Field on Monday night is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the high-20’s at kickoff. There will also be a 2-7 mph winds from the north just to make things a little more frosty.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “We had Washington listed as a -4.5 point favourite Sunday night and by Monday afternoon it was up to Redskins-5 , and Wednesday we were up to -6 and finally settling in on our current number of Washington -6.5 where we are seeing just over 55% of the Action on the Redskins to cover.”

INJURIES:

Carolina - LB Luke Kuechly (probable, concussion), K Graham Gano (probable, heel), QB Cam Newton (probable, shoulder), WR Kelvin Benjamin (questionable, back), OT Daryl Williams (questionable, ankle), DE Charles Johnson (questionable, hamstring), LB David Mayo (questionable, concussion)

Washington - TE Jordan Reed (probable, shoulder), DE Chris Baker (questionable, ankle), RB Mack Brown (questionable, concussion), LB Ryan Kerrigan (questionable, knee), OT Ty Nsekhe (questionable, ankle), LB Martrell Spaight (questionable, shoulder), P Tress Way (questionable, ankle), RB Matt Jones (questionable, knee), G Spencer Long (questionable, concussion), S Will Blackmon (questionable, concussion), G Shawn Lauvao (questionable, groin), L Will Compton (questionable, knee), S Su’a Cravens (doubtful, bicep)

ABOUT CAROLINA (5-8 SU, 4-8-1 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Although Carolina is coming off a 28-16 victory over San Diego, its playoff hopes went on life support following a disastrous two-game West Coast trip in which its defense was carved up for 75 points in losses at Oakland and Seattle. Star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, sidelined for the past three games, has practiced fully for the past three days but remains in the NFL's concussion protocol. Newton, dealing with a sore throwing shoulder that limited him in practice this week, has only 15 touchdown passes after tossing a career-high 35 last season and has failed to reach 200 yards in the air in three of the past four games. Carolina has amassed a league-best 39 sacks.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (7-5-1 SU, 9-4 ATS, 11-2 O/U): Washington coach Jay Gruden is not worried about Norman being overly amped up to face his former team, which allowed him to walk as a free agent after pulling back the franchise tag. "The good thing with Josh is that it doesn't vary week to week," Gruden said. "He gets up for everybody. That's the beauty of him. That's why he's such a great player, because he doesn't discriminate as far as him and his emotions and his level of intensity for game day." Quarterback Kirk Cousins has surpassed 4,000 yards for the second straight season and could get a boost with tight end Jordan Reed (shoulder), limited to one catch last week. Washington has won three straight at home, averaging 33 points.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Washington are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 13-3 in Panthers last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Underdog is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is split 50/50 on the betting line. The over is getting 59 percent of the action from wagers.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Ravens at Steelers highlights Week 16

"The Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number."

Bettors will hope to stuff their stockings with winnings from the Week 16 NFL slate. We talk with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag., about four key games this Christmas week.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Pittsburgh is on a five-game SU and ATS surge that has put it atop the AFC North heading into this pivotal contest. The Steelers (9-5 SU and ATS) rallied from a 17-3 deficit at Cincinnati on Sunday to snare a 24-20 victory as a 3-point favorite.

Baltimore (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) edged Philadelphia 27-26 when the Eagles, after scoring a last-seconds touchdown, opted to go for the 2-point conversion and failed.
The Ravens, who beat Pittsburgh on Nov. 6, can reclaim first place – based on tiebreakers – with a road win this week, but are ostensibly in a must-win situation.

“Massive game for both teams, essentially an elimination game for the Ravens,” Childs said. “Historically, these games have always been competitive and go down to the wire. That said, the Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number.

“We have the Steelers a good 2 points higher in our power ratings. Throw in home field, and we thought of an opening number of 5. But knowing the history of this series, we felt 5 was just too much and decided to open at 4.5, which is our current number. So far, we’re seeing a bit more Ravens money than Steelers, but nothing major and certainly not enough to move the number.”

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

With two victories over Oakland this season, Kansas City had control of the AFC West, but gave away all that leverage in Week 15. The Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead against Tennessee, netting just a field goal the rest of the way and losing on a last-second field goal 19-17 laying 6 points at home.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) is in a very precarious spot to return to the playoffs. The Broncos had two key turnovers that turned into 10 New England points Sunday in a 16-3 home loss as a 3-point pup. So Denver, which fell at home to K.C. 30-27 in overtime in Week 12, can’t take a loss in this Christmas night showdown.

“Both teams coming off tough losses, and the Broncos now have a major uphill battle to make the playoffs. It’s a must-win for them, but they simple cannot move the ball on offense,” Childs said. “They’ve scored just 13 points over their past two games, and things don’t get easier going into Kansas City with an offense that can’t run the ball. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL with no running game.

“We have the Chiefs 2 points higher in our ratings, and we give the Chiefs 3.5 points for home field. We only give more than 3 points for home field on a handful of teams, such as the Seahawks and Chiefs. So our raw number was 5.5 points, but with all the anti-Broncos money we just booked in their game against the Pats, we wanted to open a touch high, so we opened at 6. We did take very sharp action on the Broncos +6, with the public supporting them too, so we moved straight from 6 to 5 on the Chiefs.”

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, no line

Detroit has arguably been the biggest surprise of the season and is still atop the NFC North, but has some work to do to stay there after a lackluster Week 15 effort. The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) lost to the New York Giants 17-6 as a 4-point road pup, ending a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).

Dallas (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) will look to nail down home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a Week 16 win. The Cowboys rebounded from a Week 14 loss at the New York Giants – their first setback since falling to the Giants in Week 1 – by fending off Tampa Bay 26-20 Sunday night as a 6.5-point chalk.

“With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, no line yet,” Childs said, noting Sportsbook.ag will post the number Monday. “The preliminary line on them is about 7, maybe 7.5.”

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)

A month ago, Green Bay was reeling at 4-6 SU. Now, the Packers are on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS) and back in the NFC North hunt. Green Bay (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) let a 27-10 lead at Chicago melt away in frigid temperatures Sunday, but a big long ball from Aaron Rodgers late in the game led to a field goal that secured a 30-27 victory as a 4.5-point fave.

Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) continued to watch its playoff hopes fade away. The Vikings, who started the season 5-0 SU and ATS, got hammered at home Sunday by Indianapolis, 34-6 giving 5 points.

“The Vikings are another team that just can’t move the ball on offense. They can’t run the ball worth a lick, and teams that can’t run don’t win on the road in the NFL,” Childs said. “The Packers have been a monster public team the last few weeks, but they didn’t cash today, which might take some of the luster off them going forward. But we have to question the Vikes’ motivation against the Packers, who have to win if they want to win their division and continue their road to the playoffs.

“We have the Packers a solid 3.5 points higher in our ratings over the Vikings. Tack on 3 points for home field, and our raw number was 6.5, but with the big motivation edge going to the Packers, we decided to open on the key number of 7 and see what happens. So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at that number, and we haven’t moved off it.”

[Udog]

According to reports the Texans are expected to start QB Tom Savage over Brock Osweiler on Saturday vs Bengals.
Current line: HOU -2.5