The Bum's College Football 2016 Bowl Game Trends-Ats-Halftime-Totals + More information

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, December 21

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BYU (8 - 4) vs. WYOMING (8 - 5) - 12/21/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BYU is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BYU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Wed – Dec. 21

BYU at Wyoming, 9:00 PM ET – Poinsettia Bowl
BYU: 6-0 ATS in road games in non-conference games
Wyoming: 22-30 ATS off 2 straight losses against conference rivals


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Wednesday, December 21

9:00 PM
BYU vs. WYOMING
BYU is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of BYU's last 7 games
Wyoming is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wyoming's last 5 games


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Wednesday, December 21

Brigham Young @ Wyoming

Game 217-218
December 21, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brigham Young
91.566
Wyoming
85.940
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brigham Young
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Brigham Young
by 8 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wyoming
(+8 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Poinsettia Bowl
December 21, 2016

Brigham Young went to 11 consecutive bowl games under Bronco Mendenhall, who left the Mormon school last December to take the Virginia job. The trend continued under first-year head coach Kalani Sitake, who has the Cougars back in the postseason to square off against Wyoming.

These former Mountain West Conference rivals will meet for the first time since 2010 at Wednesday’s San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl at Qualcomm Stadium. As of late Tuesday night, most betting shops had BYU (8-4 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 57. The Cowboys were +300 on the money line.

Sitake’s squad has won four in a row since dropping a 28-27 heartbreaker at Boise State on Oct. 20. The Cougars closed the regular season with a 28-10 win over Utah State as a 17-point home favorite.

BYU’s defense was the difference, holding the Aggies to merely 200 yards of total offense. Sophomore safety Michael Shelton produced a 52-yard scoop and score and Jamaal Williams rushed for 131 yards and one touchdown on 18 attempts.
Unfortunately for BYU, senior QB Taysom Hill went down with a season-ending injury for the fourth time in five years. On the bright side, back-up Tanner Mangum brings plenty of experience into the lineup.

When Hill broke his leg in the first half of the 2015 opener at Nebraska, all Mangum did was hit a Hail-Mary pass on the game’s final play to beat the Cornhuskers. He went on to start the next 12 games, throwing for 3,377 yards and 23 TDs, before Hill regained his starting role in August. Mangum also connected on a last-minute TD pass to beat Boise St. one week after the win in Lincoln.

BYU has only one win over an FBS team with a winning record -- 9-winToledo – but that’s not for playing a weak schedule. The Cougars can’t help if Arizona, UCLA, Michigan State, Mississippi State and Cincinnati all had down years. They beat Sparty by 17 in East Lansing, knocked off Mississippi State in double overtime and thumped the Bearcats by 17 in the Queen City.

BYU’s four defeats came by just eight combined points. With the exception of the loss to BSU on the blue carpet, the Cougars’ other three ‘L’s came during a brutal four-game stretch of September. They beat Arizona 18-16 in the opener, only to lose 20-19 at Utah, 17-14 vs. UCLA and 35-32 to West Virginia in Landover, MY.

Hill completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 2,323 yards with a 12/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hill rushed for 600 yards and eight TDs. Mangum appeared in only three games, completing 14-of-18 passes for 145 yards and two TDs without an interception. He now has a 25/10 career TD-INT ratio.

Williams returned from a one-year suspension to rush for 1,165 yards despite missing three games with injuries. He had 11 rushing TDs and a 5.6 yards-per-carry average. Williams had five games with at least 162 rushing yards, including a career-high 286-yard effort in the 55-53 win over Toledo.

Nick Kurtz has team-highs in receptions (46) and receiving yards (482) with a pair of TD grabs. Colby Pearson has 36 catches for 368 yards and four TDs, while Mitchell Juergens snared 34 balls for 333 yards and two TDs.

BYU is ranked ninth in the nation in defending the run and 15th in scoring (19.4 points per game). This unit is led by senior DE Sae Tautu, who has 46 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss, six sacks, three passes broken up, one QB hurry and one forced fumble.

BYU has been a double-digit favorite three times this year, posting a 2-1 spread record.

Wyoming (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS) has thrived in the underdog role all season, producing a 6-1 spread record with five outright victories. The Cowboys had to go the backdoor route to hook up their betting supporters their last time out. They lost 27-24 as seven-point home underdogs to San Diego State in the MWC Championship Game.

Josh Allen’s 43-yard TD pass to C.J. Johnson with 6:12 remaining put Wyoming ahead of the number to stay against the Aztecs. However, a potential driving or tying drive was stopped on downs. Allen had thrown a 33-yard TD pass to Tanner Gentry earlier in the final stanza. He threw for 248 yards and three TDs, but he connected on just 14-of-31 throws and was intercepted twice.

Brian Hill rushed for 93 yards on 16 carries. He had run for 131 yards and two TDs two weeks before when Craig Bohl’s team beat San Diego St. 34-33. For the season, Hill rushed for 1,767 yards and 21 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. The junior is already the program’s all-time leading rusher.

Allen, a juco transfer, has completed 56.2 percent of his passes for 2,986 yards with a 26/13 TD-INT ratio. He is also a threat with his legs, rushing for 485 yards and seven TDs. Gentry is his favorite target, making 65 receptions for 1,213 yards and 12 TDs.

Wyoming went 4-8 and 2-10 in Bohl’s first three seasons. After starting 2-2 this year, Bohl’s troops ripped off five consecutive wins, including home wins over Air Force and Boise St. However, the Cowboys struggled when they left Laramie, including defeats at Nebraska (52-17), at Eastern Michigan (27-24), at UNLV (69-66 in triple overtime) and at New Mexico (56-35).

Wyoming’s defense gives up yards in bunches. The Cowboys are ranked No. 112 (of 128 FBS teams) in total defense and No. 105 in scoring (34.8 PPG).

Wyoming won’t have three defensive starters vs BYU, including LB D.J. May, safety Chase Appleby and DE Carl Granderson, who had 19 tackles, six TFL’s, four sacks, one forced fumble, one PBU and three QB hurries in six games. May had 57 tackles, 8.5 TFL’s, two sacks, one forced fumble, one scoop and score and three PBU.

The ‘over’ is 9-4 overall for the Cowboys after hitting in seven of their last 10 games. Their games have played to average combined scores of 71.9 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 9-3 overall for the Cougars, cashing at a 6-1 clip in their last seven contests. Their games have averaged combined scores of 49.4 points per game.

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday's Bowl Action
December 21, 2016

Poinsettia Bowl (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
BYU vs. Wyoming

Sportsbook.ag Odds: BYU (-10); Total set at 57

Bowl season continues on Wednesday night with the Poinsettia Bowl out in San Diego, and this will be the second time in five years that the BYU Cougars find themselves in this particular bowl game.

Chances are it's a welcome sign for the program because they haven't won a bowl game since beating San Diego State 23-6 in the 2012 Poinsettia Bowl, going 0-3 SU since then in losing some tight contests.

As double digit favorites over a Wyoming team that surprised many out of the gates, oddsmakers like the Cougars chances of ending off their season with a win again.

Wyoming finished the year with an 8-5 SU and ATS record but they really stumbled down the stretch. Wyoming dropped three of their final four games on the year – including the Mountain West Championship game to San Diego State just a few weeks after they had upset that same foe by a single point.

The recent downswing could largely be blamed on Cowboys huge slide defensively, as this was a team that consistently allowed 28 points or less prior to those final four contests. It was there that saw Wyoming give up 69 (in OT), 33, 56, and 27 points to end the year on that 1-3 SU slide and for as talented as their offense is this season (37.1 points/game), giving up that many points on a routine basis was too much to overcome.

That offense will be in for a stiff test here as BYU's defense didn't allow more than 10 points against in any of their final four games, so if Wyoming's defense continues to struggle, there is a good chance this game gets ugly in a hurry.

BYU's campaign went a bit differently as they were the ones who stumbled out of the gates (1-3 SU), only to finish the year having won seven of their final eight games and going 5-3 ATS in the process. It was improved play on both sides of the ball that allowed the Cougars to finish strong and with CFB bettors tending to prefer to back teams in better form during this time of year, hanging a double digit spread on the Cougars isn't surprising at all.

Oddly enough though, it's actually the underdog that's getting the majority of the love in this contest though when you look at the VegasInsider.com betting percentages, with nearly 70% of the spread bets grabbing the points and more than 85% of ML bets taking a shot with the underdog at huge odds. I'm not so sure either of those are great options given the different ways these two programs concluded their campaigns.

This game opened up with a spread of BYU -8.5 and has moved up to -10 despite getting less of the action. That right there is a warning sign to those seriously considering Wyoming in this spot as it tells you that much more of the bigger bets have laid the chalk and I'd have to agree.

This is the Cowboys' first bowl appearance since 2011, and while HC Craig Bohl did a fantastic job this year getting his team to 8-5 SU after going 4-8 and 2-10 SU in his first two seasons, this game has got all the feel of a Wyoming team simply being happy just to reach a bowl game.

This has never been a program that's been known to have a dominant football program and for as great and surprising as this season was, Bohl and his coaching staff know that this is still just one step in the long process of building a winner.

A school like BYU is one Wyoming would love to model themselves after and the Cowboys could be in for a rude awakening about just how far they have to go to be a consistent winner at this level in this contest.

Throw in the fact that BYU's defense has been lights out of late with a combined 29 points allowed over their final four games (7.25/game) and Wyoming's massive struggles to keep the ball out of their own endzone lately, and laying the double digits is clearly the best option.

Bowl teams like Wyoming that lost in their Conference Championship game a year ago were an abysmal 0-8 ATS in those bowl contests and with BYU blowing teams out lately and on a 7-2 ATS run overall entering this game, I'm siding with the move and aligning myself with the minority here on the favorite.

Best Bet: Take BYU -10

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

BYU vs. WYOMING (Poinsettia Bowl)...Old MW and WAC rivals, teams haven’t met since 2010. Sitake 9-3 vs. points in BYU debut season and covered all six away from Provo, though Cougs have lost and failed to cover last three bowls and just 3-3 as chalk this season. Bohl 8-4-1 vs. line in 2016 and 5-1 as dog this season.

Wyoming, based on dog mark and extended BYU bowl trends.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 Bowl Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/20/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

12/19/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

12/17/2016 6-4-0 60.00% +800

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 21

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BYU at WYO 09:00 PM

WYO +10.5 *****

O 56.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Williams runs for 210 yards, TD in BYU's Poinsettia Bowl win
December 21, 2016

SAN DIEGO (AP) Jamaal Williams and the BYU Cougars are a good fit in San Diego bowl games.

Once a staple of the Holiday Bowl, the Cougars won their second Poinsettia Bowl on a rainy Wednesday night thanks mostly to Williams.

The senior gained 210 yards on 26 carries and scored once, and Tanner Mangum ran for a touchdown and threw for another to lead BYU to a 24-21 victory over Wyoming.

It was the sixth 100-yard game for Williams this year and the second time he gained more than 200. He ran for a career-best 286 against Toledo.

With BYU (9-4) leading 17-7, Williams gave the Cougars some breathing room when he broke a 36-yard scoring run early in the fourth quarter. That TD was set up by Dayan Lake's interception of Josh Allen. The interception came one play after BYU's Micah Hannemann was ejected for targeting after a helmet-to-helmet hit on the sliding Allen.

Williams is BYU's career leader with 3,901 yards rushing. He also scored a touchdown in the Cougars' 23-6 Poinsettia Bowl victory against San Diego State in 2012.

''It felt like almost the same because I scored in both of them,'' Williams said. ''It just brings back a whole bunch of memories, and in the same end zone, too. It just brought back a whole bunch of memories of my freshman year, but I was still in the game.''

He praised his blockers, particularly wide receiver Jonah Trinnaman, for springing him on his scoring run.

''Honestly it was just great offensive line blocking and the tight ends and Jonah. Jonah is the man,'' Williams said. ''That man had the best block in the world. I wanted to celebrate right there before I even scored.''

Williams fell short of the Poinsettia Bowl record of 228 yards by San Diego State's Ronnie Hillman in 2010.

Wyoming, which lost to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference championship game Dec. 3, finished 8-6.

''It was a play or two here or there,'' coach Craig Bohl said. ''To go from two wins last year to where we are now, it's been a change of culture.''

Brian Hill, who ran for 1,767 yards this season, didn't play the first quarter.

''That was my decision and that is all I'm going to say,'' Bohl said.

Hill scored on a 4-yard run in the third quarter and finished with 93 yards on 26 carries.

Allen brought the Cowboys back with touchdown passes of 9 and 23 yards to Tanner Gentry in the span of 3 1/2 minutes late in the game. The 23-yard scoring pass came with 2:11 left and pulled the Cowboys to 24-21.

Wyoming got the ball back one final time, but Allen tried a pass across his body into double coverage and it was intercepted by Kai Nacua, his sixth pickoff of the season.

This was the renewal of a rivalry that began in 1922 and ended when the Cougars left the Mountain West after the 2010 season.

Mangum ran for a 3-yard score late in the first quarter and then threw a crazy 5-yard touchdown pass that bounced off two Wyoming defenders before Tanner Balderree grabbed it to give BYU a 17-7 lead.

Mangum started in place of Taysom Hill, who strained his left elbow Nov. 26 against Utah State.

Hill scored on a 4-yard run for Wyoming in the third quarter.

LOSING THE HANDLE

With a heavy rain falling in the first quarter, Wyoming punter Ethan Wood fumbled the snap and teammate Dalton Fields recovered at the Cowboys 3.Two plays later, Mangum scored on a 3-yard run. The Cowboys also botched the hold on a field goal attempt in the third quarter.

UP NEXT

While this was the senior season for Williams and Hill, Mangum will be back next year as a junior. For the Cowboys, they hope this breakout seasons sustains them for several seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
December 21, 2016

The bowl season continues Thursday night on the famous smurf turf where Idaho will take on Colorado State at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at Albertson’s Stadium in Boise. As of Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had the Rams installed as 15-point favorites with a total of 65. The Vandals were +500 on the money line (risk $100 to win $500).

Colorado State (7-5 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) has covered the spread in seven consecutive games. Mike Bobo’s squad is a double-digit ‘chalk’ for the third time this year after going 2-0 in a pair of such spots.

CSU closed the regular season by winning four of five games with the only loss coming by a 49-46 count at Air Force. Bobo’s club finished the regular season in style, blasting eventual Mountain West Conference champ San Diego State 63-31 as a 12-point road underdog.

Junior quarterback Nick Stevens completed 10-of-15 passes for 210 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Michael Gallup had seven receptions for 139 yards and three TDs, while Izzy Matthews rushed 14 times for 104 yards and a pair of scores. Dalyn Dawkins finished with 103 rushing yards on 15 carries.

The CSU defense forced a pair of turnovers and limited the NCAA’s all-time leading rusher Donnel Pumphrey to a season-low 53 rushing yards on 18 attempts.

This is the fourth straight season CSU is going bowling. After a pair of postseason trips under Jim McElwain, Bobo, the long-time Georgia offensive coordinator, took over in Ft. Collins when McElwain took the Florida job.

Bobo led the Rams to a 7-5 record and a trip to the Arizona Bowl in his first campaign as a head coach. However, CSU took a 28-23 loss to Nevada as a 3.5-point underdog to finish with a 7-6 ledger.

The season began on a dismal note in Denver, where Colorado destroyed CSU 44-7 as a seven-point favorite. In fairness, though, nobody had a clue what sort of season the Buffaloes were going to have at that time. The Rams would bounce back with victories over UTSA (23-14) and No. Colorado (47-21), but then they dropped to 2-3 with losses at Minnesota (31-24) and vs. Wyoming (38-17).

Since then, CSU has won five of its last seven games with four of those victories coming by margins of 18 points or more. The only setbacks were losses at Boise State (28-23) as a 28-point underdog and the aforementioned 49-46 loss at Air Force as a seven-point ‘dog.

For the season, Stevens has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,488 yards with a 14/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He lost his hold of the starting job in September but when true freshman Colin Hill (8/2 TD-INT) went down with a torn ACL on Oct. 8 vs. Utah St., Stevens resumed control and the Rams are perfect for our purposes since then.

Not only that, but Stevens has thrown at least a pair of TD passes in each of the six starts since Hill was injured. His lone interception in those six games came at Air Force.

Bobo utilized a balanced trio of running backs during the regular season. Dawkins has rushed for a team-best 801 yards and three TDs while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Matthews has run for 705 yards and 12 TDs with a 4.9 YPC average, while Marvin Kinsey has 546 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.9 YPC average. However, Kinsey tore his ACL at practice in early December and is ‘out.’

Gallup has 71 receptions for 1,170 yards and 11 TDs, earning him All-MWC first-team honors along with senior OG Fred Zerblis. The only other CSU player earning first-team All-MWC honors was senior punter Hayden Hunt.

The CSU defense is led by senior LB Kevin Davis, who recorded 101 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, three sacks, four forced fumbles, four QB hurries, two passes broken up and one interception.

Idaho (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) is one of the nation’s biggest postseason surprises. Paul Petrino went 1-11, 1-10 (game at Florida was postponed) and 4-8 in his first three years at the helm. Going into his fourth season, the program found out it was being kicked out of the Sun Belt Conference following the 2017 campaign and would be moving down to the FCS level.

Under those far-from-ideal circumstances, Petrino led his team to just its third bowl bid in 21 seasons as an FBS program. Like CSU, Idaho took the cash in seven straight to close the regular season, winning six of those games outright.

Idaho has won four consecutive games, including three wins by double-digit margins. The Vandals are off a 37-12 win over Georgia State as four-point home favorites. They scored one TD on special teams and forced six turnovers. Matt Linehan connected on 15-of-19 passes for 126 yards and three TDs without an interception.

Linehan, a junior QB who is the son of Scott, the former Rams’ head coach, has competed 61.5 percent of his throws for 2,803 yards with a 15/10 TD-INT ratio. He spreads the wealth around with six players making 23 catches or more. This group is led by Deon Watson and Trent Cowan. Watson has 36 receptions for 555 yards and two TDs, while Cowan has 46 catches for 532 yards and six TDs.

RBs Aaron Duckworth and Isaiah Saunders split carries out of the backfield. Duckworth has run for 615 yards and four TDs with a 4.5 YPC average, while Saunders has 584 rushing yards, six TDs and a 4.6 YPC average.

Idaho owns a 4-3 spread record with three outright victories in seven games as an underdog. The Vandals have been double-digit ‘dogs five times, going 2-3 ATS with one outright win at UNLV (33-30 in overtime).

Idaho faced a pair of Power Five programs, losing 59-14 at Washington and 56-6 at Washington State.

Totals have been an overall wash for the Rams (6-6), but they’ve seen the ‘over’ hit in three straight and four of their last five. CSU’s games have averaged combined scores of 61.9 PPG.

Totals have been an overall was (6-6) for the Vandals, too, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their last four contests. Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.0 PPG.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Bowl Action
December 21, 2016

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Idaho Vandals vs. Colorado State Rams

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Colorado State (-13.5); Total set at 65.5

Although it's not a true home game for the Idaho Vandals in the Idaho Potato Bowl, playing down the road at Boise State's famed blue turf field should have the feel of a home game for the in-state team.

The Vandals will be looking for every edge they can get in this game as nearly two-touchdown underdogs against one of the point spread darlings of the year in Colorado State.

Colorado State went 10-2 ATS in their 12 games this year and ended the season covering the number seven straight times. Runs like that against the number will always be noticed by bettors everywhere, and the fact that Colorado State not only did so well, but won outright three times as underdogs suggests that this team has the attitude that they've always got a chance.

Flipping around to the roll of favorites is a bit different for the Rams, but it's nothing knew, and actually could be even better for those looking to back them here as they were a perfect 4-0 ATS when favored by 7 or more points this year.

Colorado's strong money making play down the stretch was largely due to their offense putting up monster numbers, as they scored 40+ points in four of their final five games, and likely could have made it five straight had they not taken their feet off the gas pedal in a 37-0 blowout win over Fresno State.

Efficiency and production like that is not good news for an Idaho team that relies on their defense to lead the way, and even if this is a de-facto home game for the Vandals, their own offense better be ready to put up some points if they want to stay in it.

The problem for this Idaho program is that playing in the Sun Belt doesn't bring the best competition and any time they did venture out of the conference to play upper echelon competition they were blown out of the building. Games at Washington (ranked #4) and @ Washington State ended in 59-14 and 56-6 blowout losses for the Vandals.

There is no comparision between those Power-5 schools and Colorado State, but the Rams are statistically better than most of anything Idaho sees in Sun Belt play and finished the year on such a roll offensively that the Vandals likely won't be able to keep up.

Idaho did finish the campaign covering the number seven straight times themselves (8-2 ATS last 10) and that's part of the reason why VegasInsider.com numbers currently show the Vandals getting about 60% of the support, but this is definitely a step up in class for Idaho – a program not used to the big stage – and de-facto home game or not, two touchdowns may not be enough.

This is Idaho's first bowl game as a program since 2009 and like we see every year at this time of the year, often times teams in that situation are merely happy to have reached a post-season game.

The same can't be said for a Rams program that is making their fourth straight appearance in a bowl game and trying to continually build a winning culture within their walls.

Two straight losses in those most recent bowl games haven't escaped the memory banks of these players and they'll be doing everything they can to cruise to victory and end this year on a high note.

Playing on the “Smurf Turf” in Boise is nothing new for the Rams either as they almost shocked the college football world with a huge upset there as +28 point underdogs vs. Boise earlier this year (28-23 loss).

Knowing what to expect – from the blue turf and the bowl atmosphere – gives the Rams a huge edge mentally, and their 8-0 ATS run against winning foes, and 14-3-1 ATS run against non-conference foes helps put them over the top to cover this large spread.

Best Bet: Take Colorado State -13.5

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, December 22

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COLORADO ST (7 - 5) vs. IDAHO (8 - 4) - 12/22/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
COLORADO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
COLORADO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
COLORADO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.
COLORADO ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
COLORADO ST is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
IDAHO is 63-88 ATS (-33.8 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
IDAHO is 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thurs – Dec. 22

Colorado State at Idaho, 7:00 PM ET – Idaho Potato Bowl
Colorado St: 6-0 ATS after a win by 17 or more points
Idaho: 9-22 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

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Dec 22
Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise: Colorado State-Idaho

Idaho is dropping back to I-AA football after next season, so this has special meaning for them; it is Vandals’ first bowl since 2009, just their third bowl ever (2-0, both in this game). Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad is Cowboys’ OC. Vandals won their last three games, covered their last six; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Colorado State is in its 4th straight bowl; they’re 7-5 SU, covering their last seven games. Rams are 2-2 as a favorite, 5-0 vs spread in games with double figure spread. Sun Belt underdogs are 12-12 vs spread; Mountain West favorites are 8-8. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl the last five years; Mountain West teams won three of last four Potato Bowls. Sun Belt teams are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen games against Mountain West opponents.

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Thursday, December 22

7:00 PM
IDAHO vs. COLORADO STATE
Idaho is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Idaho is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado State's last 5 games
Colorado State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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Thursday, December 22

Colorado State @ Idaho

Game 219-220
December 22, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado State
90.139
Idaho
80.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado State
by 9 1/2
74
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado State
by 13 1/2
65
Dunkel Pick:
Idaho
(+13 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IDHO at CSU 07:00 PM

IDHO +16.5 *****

O 64.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Idaho outscores Colorado State 61-50 in Potato Bowl
December 23, 2016

BOISE, Idaho (AP) Idaho quarterback Matt Linehan made a strong statement with his play on the field Thursday night in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. He was just getting started.

Moments after earning MVP honors in the Vandals' 61-50 victory over Colorado State, Linehan explained what the victory meant to him and the program after the school made the controversial decision to move down to FCS starting in 2018. In April, the Sun Belt informed the school it was dropping Idaho after the 2017 season.

''We belong in FBS - period!'' Linehan said in a radio interview with ESPN. ''That's what I believe. That's what everyone believes. We know we can compete. We belong here. No matter what anyone thinks, even our tone-deaf president. Maybe he doesn't think we belong here, but I think we belong here.''

Linehan's emotional words matched his play. He was 21 of 31 for 381 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Linehan, whose father Scott Linehan is the offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys, also ran for another score in the third-highest scoring game in bowl history.

The bowl record for points is 125 in Marshall's 64-61, double-overtime victory over East Carolina in the 2001 GMAC Bowl. Idaho and Colorado State broke the Potato Bowl scoring record set in 2009 in Idaho's 43-42 victory over Bowling Green.

Linehan, who toned down his comments and apologized to university President Chuck Staben in the postgame press conference, still reveled in the season-ending win.

''No matter what was said to begin the year, I think all these guys believed we could get to this point,'' Linehan said. ''We spent so much time dealing with adversity and tough losses. I think we were just tired of losing.''

Idaho (9-4) matched its highest victory total since moving to FBS in 1996.

''I couldn't be more proud of our players,'' coach Paul Petrino said. ''They were focused on winning the football game and that helped them come out and play well early. They were told there were a bunch of things they weren't supposed to be able to do, but they did it anyway.''

Petrino shied away from wading in on the school's decision, but that didn't stop him from politicking.

''You'd hope we made a statement,'' he said. ''We were 2-0 against Mountain West teams year. We'd look pretty good in that conference. But I can only control what I can control, and that's to be as good of a coach as I can be.''

Colorado State (7-6) finished with a bowl loss for the second straight year.

''We tried some different things this year in preparation,'' Colorado coach Mike Bobo said. ''You want to finish up strong. That onus falls on me. That's the position I'm in as the head coach.''

After a scoreless first quarter, it appeared that both teams had dug in for a defensive battle. But that quickly dissipated as the teams started rolling up points.

The 84 points in the second half are the most combined in a half in any bowl game, breaking the record of 76 set by Tulsa and Virginia Tech last year in the first half of the Independence Bowl.

Isaiah Saunders led the Vandals on the ground with 147 yards and set another bowl record in the process with 33 carries.

Colorado State wasted a bowl record-setting performance from Stevens. He tied two records - touchdowns accounted for with five, touchdown passes with 5 - and set the passing yards records with 445. He finished 21 of 36 with two interceptions.

Sophomore Olabisi Johnson paced the Rams' receiving corps with 265 yards - also a bowl record - on seven catches with a pair of touchdowns. Dalyn Dawkins ran for 118 yards and a touchdown.

REVERSAL OF FORTUNES

Coming into the game, Bobo said a major factor for his team's defensive success was limiting the big plays. But the Rams were dismal against Idaho, yielding nine plays of 25 yards or more.

The Rams also staked much of their success this season on winning the turnover battle.

However, Idaho, which entered the game 13th in the country in turnover margin, won that category as well. The Rams turned the ball over three times, while the Vandals were turnover free.

UP NEXT

Colorado State: One of the biggest storylines heading into the 2017 season will be the quarterback position.

Freshman Collin Hill won the starting job but suffered a torn ACL in his left knee midway through the season. However, Nick Stevens' return sparked the Rams. With Hill likely unable to practice in the spring and Steven returning for his senior year, competition for the starting job promises to be fierce again in fall camp.

Idaho: The Vandals will look to exit FBS with a bang and claim only their second conference title since moving up in 1996. Idaho's last conference championship came in 1998 in the Big West.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, December 23

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E MICHIGAN (7 - 5) vs. OLD DOMINION (9 - 3) - 12/23/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
E MICHIGAN is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
E MICHIGAN is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
OLD DOMINION is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
OLD DOMINION is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after playing a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
E MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus OLD DOMINION over the last 3 seasons
OLD DOMINION is 2-0 straight up against E MICHIGAN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LOUISIANA TECH (8 - 5) vs. NAVY (9 - 4) - 12/23/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 159-119 ATS (+28.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 159-119 ATS (+28.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games against Conference USA opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 70-40 ATS (+26.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 76-42 ATS (+29.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
LOUISIANA TECH is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LOUISIANA TECH is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OHIO U (8 - 5) vs. TROY (9 - 3) - 12/23/2016, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Fri – Dec. 23

Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion, 1:00 PM ET – Bahamas Bowl
E Michigan: 9-25 ATS off a home win
Old Dominion: 8-0 ATS as a favorite

Louisiana Tech at Navy, 4:30 PM ET – Armed Forces Bowl
Louisiana Tech: 3-14 ATS in road games after a 2 game road trip
Navy: 76-41 ATS in road games in non-conference games

Ohio at Troy, 8:00 PM ET – Dollar General Bowl
Ohio: 9-1 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Troy: 7-0 UNDER in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

------------------------------------------

Dec 23
Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan-Old Dominion
First-ever bowl for Old Dominion, which is in its third year of I-A football; first bowl for Eastern Michigan since 1987, their first/only bowl. EMU was 7-41 the last four years, jumped to 7-5 this year; Eagles are 8-2 vs spread in last ten games, 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 in games with single digit spread. Four of EMU’s five losses are by 13+ points; five of their six I-A wins are by 7 or less. Old Dominion won its last five games (4-0-1 vs spread), scoring 41 pts/game; they’re 7-0-1 as a favorite this year, 6-0 in games with single digit spread. ODU’s senior QB Washington threw 28 TD’s with only four INTs; he is Monarchs’ 3rd-leading rusher. MAC teams are 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games vs C-USA opponents. Under is 8-2 in last ten EMU games, 0-3 in Monarchs’ last three games. First two Bahamas Bowls ended 49-48/45-31; this should be good.

Dollar General Bowl, Mobile AL; Ohio-Troy
This is first bowl in six years for Troy, which should have crowd edge given Mobile site; Trojans are 2-3 in bowls, with two of those games going OT. Ohio coach Solich (ex-Nebraska HC) is 4-8 in bowl games; Bobcats are 2-7 in bowls, losing last two 37-20/31-29- this is their 5th bowl in last six years. Ohio is 8-5 this year, 3-0 vs spread as an underdog, 3-2 in games with single digit spread- they used two QBs, a freshman and senior with mixed results. Troy lost two of last three games after an 8-1 start; they’re 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-5 vs spread in last seven games, 1-3 in games with single digit spread- their junior QB is a 3-year starter. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 3-3 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Under is 10-0-1 in Bobcats last 11 games, 6-2-1 in Troy’s last nine. Underdogs are 3-2 SU in this bowl the last five years; Sun Belt teams won three of last four.

-----------------------------------

Friday, December 23

1:00 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. OLD DOMINION
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Eastern Michigan's last 10 games
Eastern Michigan is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
Old Dominion is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Old Dominion's last 19 games

4:30 PM
LOUISIANA TECH vs. NAVY
Louisiana Tech is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Louisiana Tech's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Navy's last 9 games
Navy is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games

8:00 PM
OHIO vs. TROY
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Ohio's last 9 games
Ohio is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Troy is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Troy is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

----------------------------------

Friday, December 23

Ohio @ Troy

Game 225-226
December 23, 2016 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio
78.951
Troy
77.369
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 1 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 3 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(+3 1/2); Over

Louisiana Tech @ Navy

Game 223-224
December 23, 2016 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisiana Tech
85.772
Navy
92.001
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Navy
by 6
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisiana Tech
by 5 1/2
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Navy
(+5 1/2); Under

Eastern Michigan @ Old Dominion

Game 221-222
December 23, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Eastern Michigan
76.091
Old Dominion
77.691
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Old Dominion
by 1 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Old Dominion
by 4
64
Dunkel Pick:
Eastern Michigan
(+4); Under

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Bowl Tips
December 22, 2016


**Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion**

-- Eastern Michigan (7-5 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) heads to Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau for the Popeye's Bahamas Bowl to battle Old Dominion (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS). These two teams might have the least combined bowl experience of all teams in the postseason, as Old Dominion plays in their first-ever bowl games, and Eastern Michigan returns to the postseason for the first time in 29 years. ODU sits as a four-point favorite at most shops as of Thursday morning, with a total of 63 1/2.

-- Eastern Michigan started hot, winning four of their first five games, including a win over Wyoming. They also recovered victories over bowl teams Ohio and Central Michigan. However, injuries and inconsistent performances started as the leaves started to change, as the Eagles were just 3-4 SU over their final seven games. They also started out the season on fire against the number, going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games. However, they were just 2-2 ATS in the final four games to wrap up the regular season.

-- The Eagles offense ranked 34th in the country with 453.9 yards per game, and they ranked 19th with 295.8 yards per contest. The passing game might be relied upon even heavier than usual, as leading rusher Ian Eriksen missed the season finale with an undisclosed injury, and he is officially listed as questionable for the bowl game. QB Brogan Roback completed 59.2 percent of his pass attempts, throwing for 2,394 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also will take off running when he has to, going for 195 yards and two scores on 57 attempts. If Eriksen is sidelined, Breck Turner has proven he is more than capable, running for 369 yards with four scores.WR Sergio Bailey is the top threat downfield, going for 55 grabs, 799 yards and six touchdowns.

-- Defensively, the Eagles weren't very good, and that's where side bettors considering EMU should be concerned. The Eagles allowed 30.3 points per game, ranking 81st in the nation, and their passing defense was picked apart for 270.8 yards per game, 112th in the country.

-- Old Dominion had a rather balanced attack on offense, posting 433.9 yards per game to rank 52nd among FBS teams. They rolled for 196.1 yards per game on the ground, and 237.8 yards per game through the air. With 36.0 PPG, the Monarchs ranked 25th in the nation in scoring offense. They got off to a rather slow start, losing two of their first three games, including both outings against FBS teams. However, after a 49-22 setback at N.C. State Sept. 17, the Monarchs started to hit their stride. They earned an impressive 33-19 win against bowl team Texas-San Antonio the following week, and that kicked off an 8-1-1 ATS run, including straight-up wins against UTSA and Southern Mississippi. Their only loss since that day in Raleigh was a 59-24 loss on the road against conference champ Western Kentucky.

-- QB David Washington paces the ODU offense, completing 59.5 percent of his passes with 2,648 yards, 28 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while also running for 205 yards and another touchdown. RB Ray Lawry was impressive, going for 1,122 yards and 11 scores. The rushing attack was a two-headed monster, as RB Jeremy Cox found the end zone a team-high 13 times, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. WRs Jonathan Duhart and Zach Pascal each posted eight touchdowns, while WR Travis Fulgham posted a team-best 16.0 yards per catch with seven scores.

-- As a single-digit favorite, Old Dominion was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS with the 'over' cashing in three of those four outings.

-- The Monarchs are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games overall, but they're just 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games against teams with an overall winning record. ODU is also 2-8 ATS in their past 10 non-conference tilts.

-- The 'over' is 4-0 in Old Dominion's past four games against a team with an overall winning mark, and 13-5-1 in their past 19 games overall. The over is also 5-1 in their past six games on a natural grass surface. The 'under' is 5-2 in their past seven non-conference games.

-- For Eastern Michigan, they have covered eight of their past 10 games overall, and four of their past five outside of the conference. However, they are just 17-37 ATS in their past 54 games following a straight-up victory.

-- The 'under' is 8-2 in EMU's past 10 games overall, and 4-1 in their past five games against a team with a winning overall record. The 'over' is 19-7 in their past 26 non-conference games, and 4-0 in their past four appearances on a natural grass surface.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Louisiana Tech vs. Navy**

-- The Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl takes place on the home field of the TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas, as the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5 SU/ATS) will take on the Navy Midshipmen (9-4 SU, 7-5-1 ATS).

-- Each of these teams limp in on two-game losing streaks, their longest of the season, but one team is much healthier than the other. Navy was crushed by injury in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game loss to Temple, losing the nation's leader in rushing touchdowns. QB Will Worth was forced out of that game, and QB Zach Abbey hasn't been nearly as productive in his stead.

-- Louisiana Tech has rolled up impressive offensive numbers on a near-weekly basis, going for 44 or more points in seven of the past eight games, and nine times overall on the season. QB Ryan Higgins has been wildly productive, completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,208 yards, 37 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He cannot be forgotten about in the run game, as he had 284 yards on 80 carries for three touchdowns, although he certainly won't be confused with some of the nation's best dual-threat options. RB Jarred Craft topped the 1,000-yard mark on the ground, averaging 5.8 yards per rush with nine touchdowns. Boston Scott is a nice change of pace back, rolling for 7.7 yards per attempt and finding the end zone five times.

-- The Bulldogs have a pair of studs on the receiving end of those Higgins passes, as WR Trent Taylor piled up 1,570 yards on 124 receptions while getting into the end zone 10 times. His partner in crime, WR Carlos Henderson, piled up 17 touchdowns on 72 receptions while going for 1,406 yards. Craft also made his presence felt as a receiver, posting 339 yards with four touchdowns.

-- Navy allowed 242.2 passing yards per game, ranking 80th in the country, and they gave up 29.7 points per game, good for 76th in the land. If they fall behind early, it's going to be tough for the Midshipmen to keep up. They passed for just 125.8 yards per game, ranking 125th in the country. They did rank 20th in scoring with 37.4 points per game, but a majority of those numbers came with a healthy Worth.

-- The Middies failed to cover in three of their past five games, and the 'under' hit in each of their past two after an impressive 6-1 'over' run from Oct. 8 through Nov. 26. Again, injuries are a huge reason for the fact they managed just 27 points over their final two games against Temple and Army, and you can expect another low-scoring output for their offense, even though the Bulldogs allowed 32.7 points per game, ranking 96th in the country. However, La. Tech was stout against the run, Navy's strength, ranking 31st in the nation in the category. When the Bulldogs give up big plays it is in the pass game, as they ranked 122nd by giving up 283.6 yards per game. Against Navy, however, that shouldn't be a huge concern.

-- Louisiana Tech is listed as a 6 1/2-point favorite as of Thursday morning, with a total of 67 1/2. As a favorite this season, the Bulldogs are 7-1 SU/4-3 ATS.

-- Navy is 1-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, losing at Air Force 28-14 as a touchdown 'dog back on Oct. 1, and falling 52-45 as six-point underdogs at South Florida Oct. 28. Their only straight-up win as an underdog came against Notre Dame on a neutral site, winning 28-27 Nov. 5 in Jacksonville.

-- Louisiana Tech is playing in a bowl game for a third straight season, a school record. They topped Illinois in the Heart of Dallas Bowl in 2014 by a 35-18 count, and pushed aside Arkansas State in the New Orleans Bowl last season by a 47-28 score. Overall they are 4-3-1 SU in bowl games since making their postseason debut in the 1977 Independence Bowl.

-- Navy has a long and proud history, and they have been impressive in the postseason. The Middies are in a bowl for a fifth straight season, and they have won each of their past three bowl games. Last season the Midshipmen powered past Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl by a 44-28 score, but that game was also played on their home field with a healthy squad.

-- These teams last met Sept. 18, 2010 in Ruston, with Navy coming away with a 37-23 victory.

-- The Bulldogs have covered each of their past four bowl games, and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five games against teams with an overall winning record. La. Tech is also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games overall, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games out of conference.

-- The Midshipmen are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 bowl games, but they're 0-4 ATS in their past four games against teams with an overall winning record.

-- The 'over' is 7-1 ATS in their past eight games overall, and 5-1 in their past six non-conference affairs. The 'over' is also 34-16-1 in La. Tech's past 51 against a team with an overall winning record, and 4-0 in their past four games on a grass surface.

The 'over' is 13-6 in Navy's past 19 games overall, and 8-3 in their past 11 against teams with an overall winning record. However, the 'under' is 8-1 in their past nine neutral site games, and 9-3 in their past 12 games on grass.

-- Kickoff is slated for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Ohio vs. Troy**

-- In the final game of the day, Ohio University (8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS) will battle Troy (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) in the Dollar General Bowl at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala. Each of these teams sputtered somewhat down the stretch and missed out on conference championship crowns. But both teams are hungry, and very competitive, and this has the chance to be a special game.

-- Ohio was a friend of bettors at the window this season for one trend that just jumps off the page. The 'under' is 11-0-1 in their past 12 games, including the Mid-American Championship Game against high-scoring Western Michigan. The only 'over' result of the season came in a triple-overtime loss at home against Texas State, 56-54. The Bobcats allowed 21 or more points in each of their first four games, but in nine games since Oct. 1 they yielded just 18.1 PPG.

-- The Bobcats turned to QB Greg Windham in the MAC Championship Game. He posted 1,567 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 382 yards and three scores. RB Dorian Brown is a decent back, leading the team with 815 yards and four scores while averaging 5.4 yards per tote. Maleek Irons managed 434 yards with five scores, and Bo Hardy can also get it done when called upon. He had 205 yards on 44 carries, averaging 4.5 yards per rush.

-- On the receiving end, Sebastian Smith led the team with 892 yards and 16.5 yards per grab, finding the end zone four times. WRs Papi White and Jordan Reid tied for the team lead with five receiving touchdowns. The real stars for the Bobcats are on defense, however, as MAC Defensive Player of the Year Tarell Basham posted 11 1/2 sacks, and is the school's career leader with 29 1/2. He paired with LB Blair Brown, the conference leader with 116 tackles and MAC Freshman of the Year Javon Hagan, to form a very sturdy defense.

-- Troy started the season 8-1 SU, and nearly was 9-0 with a monumental upset. They went to Clemson as 34 1/2-point underdogs and nearly stunned the Tigers, falling 30-24 in Death Valley after failing on an onside kick in the final minute. The Trojans rattled off seven straight wins after that near-miss, including wins over bowl teams Southern Mississippi, Idaho, South Alabama and Appalachian State. However, the Trojans were manhandled 35-3 at home against Arkansas State Nov. 17, and they fell 28-24 at Georgia Southern Dec. 3 to miss out on a Sun Belt Conference crown. The Trojans covered just twice in their final seven games after opening 4-1 ATS.

-- Troy was led by QB Brandon Silvers, who completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 2,951 yards, 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 123 yards and four scores, but is not a dual-threat QB. RB Jordan Chunn is a stud, posting 1,232 yards with 13 touchdowns on 4.8 yards per tote, and RB Josh Anderson posted three rushing scores as a change of pace. WR Emanuel Thompson is the top threat with five scores, while Deondre Douglas found the end zone six times.

-- The Trojans ranked 47th in the nation in total yardage with 439.1 yards per game, and they were 36th in passing with 263.1 yards per contest. Their 34.2 points per game ranked 37th in the country. On the defensive side of the ball, Troy allowed 22.0 points per game to check in 23rd in the countrry, while allowing just 123.7 yards per game. If they're going to be beaten it is through the air, as they allowed 240.7 yards per game to rank 78th.

-- Ohio U. wasn't great on offense, totaling 392.8 yards per game to rank 77th in FBS. They were very balanced, going for 218.0 yards per game through the air, and 174.8 yards per game on the ground, but both were middle of the pack statistically. The D allowed 363.2 yards per game to rank 32nd in the land, and they gave up just 105.8 yards per game to rank seventh in the country.

-- The Bobcats were 6-1 ATS in seven games against teams with a winning overall record, and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 non-conference games. They're also 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings against Sun Belt teams, although that one loss was this season against Texas State in the opener. Ohio is 5-1 ATS in their past six neutral site games, too.

-- Ohio is bowl eligible for the eighth straight season, and they're playing in their 10th bowl game overall. They have won just two previous bowl games, with the last coming in 2012 in the Independence Bowl against another Sun Belt team, Louisiana-Monroe.

-- The Trojans are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against teams with a winning overall record, but just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games overall and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five against opponents from the MAC. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven non-conference tilts.

-- This is Troy's sixth-ever bowl game, and their first since a 2010 win over Ohio in the New Orleans Bowl, 48-21.

-- The 'under' is 8-2-1 in Ohio's past 11 neutral site games, and 4-0-1 in their past five against teams with a winning overall record. The under is 12-3-1 in their past 16 games on field turf.

-- For Troy, the 'over' is 5-0 in their past five bowl games, and 5-0 in their past five neutral site games. The over is also 4-1 in their past five against MAC opponents, but the 'under' is 6-2-1 in their past nine outings.

-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Top Bowl Action
December 22, 2016

Dollar General Bowl (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Ohio Bobcats vs. Troy Trojans

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Troy (-4); Total set at 49.5

It's the MAC vs the Sun Belt in the Dollar General Bowl Friday night as both teams are looking to end their 2016 campaigns on a high note.

Troy and Ohio ended their respective seasons by losing two of three SU and ATS, but it was the Bobcats who were hoping for more as their final defeat came in the MAC Championship game against undefeated Western Michigan.

Ohio is the team catching points here and that's a bit surprising given that they've had plenty of bowl experience of late, going to six bowl games from 2009-2015 and know all about what these one-off games entail, while Troy is making it's first post-season appearance since 2010 when they beat up on this same Ohio program 48-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. Who has the edge this time around?

This might be Ohio's seventh bowl game in eight seasons, but getting there consistently doesn't always equate to success.

The Bobcats are just 2-4 SU in those previous six bowl games, giving up an average of 29 points per contest. The last two bowl games have been especially ugly from a defensive perspective for Ohio as they gave up 37 and 31 points in two straight defeats, the last of which came against another Sun Belt foe in Appalachian State a year ago.

Being in the MAC – a conference known for it's offense – Ohio is used to playing in high-scoring affairs, but much of their success this season was predicated on strong defensive play as they finished the year with a 1-11-1 O/U record.

That O/U record doesn't tell the full story though, at least for this game, as the 22.2 points allowed per game for Ohio should be surpassed vs a Troy program that put up 34.2 points/game. Also, MAC totals are typically in the mid-50's or beyond, so Ohio racking up all those 'unders' was a product of the conference they play in, only having one total closing at lower than 51 points.

Obviously this game has a total below that threshold and those looking to continue to ride Ohio's streak of playing 'under' the total might be in for a rude awakening.

This is as close as it gets to a home bowl game for Troy playing in Mobile, Alabama and we should expect the crowd to be decidedly on their side. Other than one blip vs. Arkansas State where they scored just 3 points, Troy loves to light up the scoreboard with 30+ points in seven of their other 11 games.

Ohio's defense could present a stiffer challenge than what Troy typically sees in Sun Belt play, but the excitement of being back in a bowl game for the first time in six years should translate into big plays being made by the Trojans and their usual 28+ points scored.

After all, Troy has a 4-1 O/U run going against MAC foes, are 5-0 O/U in their last five on a neutral field, and 38-13 O/U in their last 51 non-conference games.

So while Vegas Insider's betting percentage numbers currently show about 70% of the action on this total on the low side of things as people put more stock into Ohio's run of 'unders,' the total has actually jumped up a half-point from where it opened.

Ohio will have no quarrels about playing a back and forth game should that be how it plays out, because in that scenario, they have immense trust in their defense to get the critical stop when needed.

After all, Ohio has had plenty of success scoring against Sun Belt teams in the past with a 8-0-1 O/U run against the conference going into this contest.

Best Bet: Take Over 49.5 points.