The Bum's College Football 2016 Bowl Game Trends-Ats-Halftime-Totals + More information

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2
December 15, 2016

TUESDAY, DEC. 20

Matchup Skinny Edge

MEMPHIS vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Boca Raton Bowl)...WKU 5-1 vs. line last six TY but just 2-2- vs. spread away from home this season. C-USA teams were 3-1 vs. points in bowls last year. Memphis, however, covered 3 of last 4 this season and is 6-2-1 last nine as dog.
Slight to Memphis, based on extended dog mark.

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 21

Matchup Skinny Edge

BYU vs. WYOMING (Poinsettia Bowl)...Old MW and WAC rivals, teams haven’t met since 2010. Sitake 9-3 vs. points in BYU debut season and covered all six away from Provo, though Cougs have lost and failed to cover last three bowls and just 3-3 as chalk this season. Bohl 8-4-1 vs. line in 2016 and 5-1 as dog this season.
Wyoming, based on dog mark and extended BYU bowl trends.

THURSDAY, DEC. 22

Matchup Skinny Edge

COLORADO STATE vs. IDAHO (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)...CSU closed its season in a rush with covers in its last seven games and 9-1-1 last 11 on board. Though Rams have failed to cover their bowl games the past three seasons. Idaho almost as hot vs. spread, covering last seven in 2016, though Vandals just 1-3 vs. line outside of Sun Belt. Idaho 16-8 as dog and 15-4 against number away from Kibbie Dome since 2014. First Vandals bowl since 2009 Humanitarian on this same field, beating Bowling Green 43-42.
Slight to Idaho, based on extended trends.

FRIDAY, DEC. 23

Matchup Skinny Edge

EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. OLD DOMINION (Bahamas Bowl)...Teams met in 2014 & ‘15, with ODU winning SU on each but failing to cover. EMU was 9-3 vs. line this season in major turnaround, also 4-1 vs. spread away from home. But ODU was also 9-3 vs. number as well as SU, and closed with five straight wins and covers with all wins by double-digit margins. In fact all nine Monarchs wins this season by double-digits margins. First-ever bowl for ODU! EMU first bowl since 1987 California Bowl in Fresno when upsetting San Jose State, 30-27!
ODU, based on recent trends.

LOUISIANA TECH vs. NAVY (Armed Forced Bowl)...Navy has won and covered last three years in bowls, while La Tech has won and covered last two years in bowls. Mids 7-4-2 vs. spread this season, 17-8-2 last 27 on board, though only 3-5 vs. line last seven away from Annapolis. Mids also “over” 12-6 last 18 since late 2015, but just 8-7 vs. line last 15 away from Ruston. Skip Holtz 26-14 vs. spread since 2014 and “over” 13-4 last 17 since mid 2015.
“Over,” based on “totals” trends.

OHIO vs. TROY (Dollar General Bowl)...Rematch of 2010 New Orleans Bowl won big by Troy, 48-21. Solich, however, has covered 3 of 4 bowls since, and is 8-1 vs. spread last nine away from home as well as covers in last six as dog. Trojans only 2-5 vs. spread last seven this season after covers in first five out of the chute. MAC teams recovered to 4-3 bowl spread mark LY after struggles in previous seasons.
Ohio, based on recent Solich trends.

SATURDAY, DEC. 24

Matchup Skinny Edge

MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. HAWAII (Hawaii Bowl)...Middle has lost and failed to cover last three bowls since 2010 and 1-4 SU and vs. line for Rick Stockstill in bowls since 2006. Blue Raiders, however, 6-2 vs. spread last eight vs. non-C USA teams. Nick Rolovich no covers last five this season and just 1-4 vs. spread at Aloha Stadium, and Rainbow Warriors just 1-10 last 11 and 2-13 last 15 vs. spread as host. First bowl for Hawaii since 2010 in this same Hawaii Bowl.
Slight to MTSU, based on extended Hawaii home negatives.

MONDAY, DEC. 26

Matchup Skinny Edge

MIAMI-OHIO vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (St. Petersburg Bowl)...MSU makes bowl with 5-7 SU mark, but remember all sub-.500 bowl teams won SU and covered last season. SEC teams were 8-3 vs. spread in bowls a year ago, including MSU with a win over NCS in Belk Bowl. Dan Mullen 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2010. Bulldogs, however, only 1-5 as chalk this season. Miami-O covered five of last six in 2016, and Chuck Martin 12-5 vs. spread as dog away from home since 2014.
Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.

MARYLAND vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (Quick Lane Bowl) ...Former ACC rivals last met in 2013. Terps lost six of last nine SU this season and dropped 8 of 12 spread decisions in Durkin debut. Also no covers last five away from College Park. BC 3-2 as dog away from Chestnut Hill TY and 9-3-1 last 13 in role.
BC, based on team trends.
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VANDERBILT vs. NC STATE (Independence Bowl)... Vandy covered six of last nine this season and was 6-3 as dog in 2016. Derek Mason 17-10 as dog since 2014. NCS 8-4 vs. line in 2016 and makes third straight bowl visit for Doeren, and Pack is 9-4 as chalk for Doeren since last season. Note SEC 8-3 vs. line in bowls LY, ACC 4-6 vs. spread.
Vandy, based on recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
December 15, 2016

TUESDAY, DEC. 27

Matchup Skinny Edge

ARMY vs. NORTH TEXAS (Dallas Bowl)...Rematch of UNT’s 35-18 win at West Point on Oct. 22. UNT won this bowl three years ago vs. UNLV. Mean Green 9-7-1 last 18 as dog, though mean Green dropped 4 of last 5 vs. spread this season. Army 3-5 vs. line last eight into Navy game, Army 7-9-2 last 18 on board. Army “under” 9-4 last 13 since late 2015, though first meeting “over” in October.
Slight to North Texas and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WAKE FOREST vs. TEMPLE (Military Bowl)...Temple plays its second straight game at Annapolis. Owls remarkably covered last 12 on board this season and are 35-16 vs. spread since 2013. Wake 5-1 as dog this season and 9-2 last 11 in role.
Temple, based on recent trends.

WASHINGTON STATE vs. MINNESOTA (Sun Bowl)...Mike Leach has covered his last two bowls with Wazzu (2013 & 2015). Leach 8-4 vs. line last 12 away from Pullman, though 0-2 as visiting chalk this season. Fifth straight bowl for Gophers (1-3 SU and 2-2 vs. line in those) who were 3-1-1 as dog this season and now 16-7-1 in role since 2013.
Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.

BAYLOR vs. BOISE STATE (Cactus Bowl)...Baylor faded badly down the stretch, losing last six SU and only 1-5 vs. line in those games, ears 3-9 vs. spread this season for Jim Grobe and just 1-5 vs. line away from Waco. Bears 3-3 SU and vs. line last six years in bowls. Bryan Harsin 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls last two years for Boise, which is 6-2 vs. spread last eight bowls. Broncos 8-3-1 vs. spread last 12 away from blue carpet (where they have had trouble covering numbers lately).
Boise State, based on team trends.

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 28

Matchup Skinny Edge

NORTHWESTERN vs. PITT (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...NU 3-2 as dog this season and 12-8 in role since 2014. Pat Fitz 1-5 SU but 4-2 vs. line in bowls since 2008. Pitt 2-5 as chalk this season and has lost and failed to cover last two and four of last five bowls. This is ninth straight bowl for Panthers. Pitt also “over” 11-1 this season!
Northwestern and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WEST VIRGINIA vs. MIAMI-FLA. (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Streaky Canes won and covered first four this season, lost and failed to cover next four, then ended season with wins and covers in final four. Mark Richt was 6-3 vs. spread in his last nine bowls at Georgia. Canes however have failed to cover their last four bowls. Holgorsen no covers last two bowls and Mounties 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls. WVU 1-1 as dog this season and 1-4 vs. line in role since a year ago.
Miami, based on team trends.

INDIANA vs. UTAH (Foster Farms Bowl)...Kyle Whittingham 8-1 SU, 7-2 vs. spread in bowls, and Utes 12-1 SU last 13 bowls since ‘99 Las Vegas Bowl vs. Fresno, and 10-2 vs. spread last 12 in bowls. Utes 2-4 as chalk this season, just 3-6 last 9 in role. IU mostly 50-50 in all categories past few years.
Utah, based on bowl trends.
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KANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Texas Bowl)...Bill Snyder 1-5 SU and vs. line in bowls since KSU return, but also was 5-1 this season as dog and 27-13 last 40 in dog role. A&M 2-4 SU last six and 0-7-1 vs. line last eight this season. Sumlin 17-32-2 vs. spread since 2013.
Kansas State, based on team trends.

THURSDAY, DEC. 29

Matchup Skinny Edge

SOUTH FLORIDA vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Birmingham Bowl)...Muschamp just 5-7 vs. line this season, 14-21-1 last 36 on board with his Florida and Gamecock teams. Muschamp 3-5 as dog this season. USF 17-7-1 vs. spread since last season, 11-3-1 as chalk that span.
South Florida, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Belk Bowl)...Bielema has won and covered bowls past two years, also 13-6 as dog past three seasons (though just 4-4 TY). VPI finished season with covers in its last three but failed to cover four of last five as chalk this term.
Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE vs. COLORADO (Alamo Bowl)...Old Big XII rivals have not met since 2009. Coach Mac has never coached in a bowl (left SJSU before 2012 Military Bowl). Buffs dropped last two vs. line TY but still 10-3 vs. spread this season and 15-5 last 20 on board. Gundy 3-5 vs. spread last eight bowls, only 2-2 as dog this season.
Colorado, based on team trends.

FRIDAY, DEC. 30

Matchup Skinny Edge

TCU vs. GEORGIA (Liberty Bowl)...Frogs won and covered their bowls the past two seasons but Patterson had failed to cover in previous five bowls. TCU only 3-9 vs. spread this season but were 3-2 vs. line away from Fort Worth. Kirby Smart 5-7 vs. points in Georgia debut, 1-3 vs. line non-SEC
Slight to Georgia, based on recent trends.

NORTH CAROLINA vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Heels have lost and failed to cover bowls past two seasons, while David Shaw is 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 vs. line in bowls since 2011. Stanford 5-1 vs. line away from Farm this season, 10-2 last 12 and 13-3 last 16 in role. Fedora 2-2 as dog this season, 7–12 in role since arriving at UNC in 2012.
Stanford, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA vs. AIR FORCE (Arizona Bowl)...Force 5-1 vs. line last six bowls. Jags 3-9 vs. line this season, 11-25-1 vs. spread overall since 2014, and 1-6 last seven vs. line as dog away.
Air Force, based on USA negatives.

NEBRASKA vs. TENNESSEE (Music City Bowl)...Butch Jones has won and covered big in bowls past two seasons but Vols only 4-7-1 vs. line this season and just 1-3-1 vs. number away from Knoxville. Huskers have covered last three bowls and Mike Riley 6-3 vs. spread in bowls. Huskers 10-5-1 vs. line last 16 on board.
Nebraska, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE vs. MICHIGAN (Orange Bowl)...Jimbo no covers last three bowls but covered previous three bowls. FSU 3-1 as dog since last season and 6-3 vs. points last nine away from Doak Campbell. Harbaugh 2-1 SU and vs. line in previous bowls, but Michigan just 9-10 vs. points last 19 on board and 4-4 as chalk away from Ann Arbor since last season.
Slight to Florida State, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, DEC. 31

Matchup Skinny Edge

LSU vs. LOUISVILLE (Citrus Bowl)...LSU -2 SU and vs. line after Orgeron took over early in season. Les Miles was 1-4 vs. line last five years in bowls. Petrino however no covers last three this season and 2-6 vs. spread last eight in 2016.
Slight to LSU, based on Orgeron trends.

KENTUCKY vs. GEORGIA TECH (Taxslayer Gator Bowl)...First bowl for Cats since 2010 Compass Bowl with Joker Phillips. UK 7-2 vs. line last nine this season and 5-1 last six as dog. Paul Johnson just 2-5 vs. spread in bowls with GT and no covers last five as chalk away from home.
Kentucky, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. ALABAMA (CFP Peach Bowl)... Nick only 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, but 6-4 in role since arriving at Bama in 2007. Tide 8-3-2 vs. line this season, 13-5-2 last 20 on board. Also 11-3 vs. line last 14 away from Tuscaloosa. Chris Petersen only 5-6 as dog with Huskies, though Petersen 6-3 vs. spread in bowls with Boise and U-Dub.
Alabama, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. CLEMSON (CFP Fiesta Bowl)...Dabo beat Urban Meyer in Orange Bowl three years ago. Dabo 9-3 last 12 as dog, and Clemson has covered in last five bowl games. Buckeyes have covered last three bowls and Urban Meyer 10-2 vs. spread in bowls, though OSU only 2-6 vs. spread last eight this season and 10-13 last 23 vs. spread as chalk.
Clemson, based on team trends.

MONDAY, JAN. 2

Matchup Skinny Edge

IOWA vs. FLORIDA (Outback Bowl)...Iowa closed hot with wins and covers in last three this season. Ferentz has lost and failed to cover big in bowls the past two seasons, but Iowa had covered 5 of 6 bowls prior to the past two seasons. Hawkeyes 10-7 last 17 as dog. McElwain however only 6-10 last 16 on board and is 0-2 vs. line in bowls (he had left CSU before 2014 Las Vegas Bowl) and 2-6 vs. spread last eight away from Swamp.
Iowa, based on recent trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. WISCONSIN (Cotton Bowl)...WMU 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls past two seasons, and Fleck 10-3 as dog since 2014. Broncos have also covered last six outside of MAC and 27-13 last 40 vs. spread. Wiscy has won and covered as dog in bowls past two seasons and Paul Chryst 11-4 vs. spread last 15 on board. MAC teams 4-3 vs. line in bowls LY.
Slight to WMU, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL vs. PENN STATE (Rose Bowl)...James Franklin won and covered last eight in 2016 and 8-0-1 vs. line last nine in 2016. Franklin 4-1 as dog this season after 0-5 mark in role LY. SC also won last 8 SU (7-1 vs. line) though Trojans just 1-3 vs. line in last four bowls. Trojans won and covered last three away from Coliseum TY after losing previous seven away vs. spread.
Slight to Penn State, based on team trends.

AUBURN vs. OKLAHOMA (Sugar Bowl)...Rematch of ‘72 Sugar Bowl! Bob Stoops just 3-7 vs. line last ten bowls. Though Sooners did close fast with covers last three in 2016. Malzahn 2-0-1 as dog TY but was just 1-6 in role previous two seasons.
Slight to Auburn, based on extended Stoops bowl woes.

[StarDust Bum]

Minnesota players threaten boycott of Holiday Bowl
December 15, 2016

Minnesota football players are threatening to boycott the Gophers' appearance in the Holiday Bowl in protest of the school's decision to suspend 10 players following an investigation into an alleged sexual assault in September, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported Thursday.

According to the report the players were expected to announce Thursday evening that they will boycott all football practices and team activities, and the Dec. 27 bowl game if necessary.

The school announced Tuesday that Ray Buford, Carlton Djam, Seth Green, KiAnte Hardin, Dior Johnson, Tamarion Johnson, Kobe McCrary, Antonio Shenault, Mark Williams and Antoine Winfield Jr. were suspended.

A players-only meeting was held Thursday morning, according to the Star Tribune. The players then informed coach Tracy Claeys of the meeting and that they would halt all practices and football-related activities. They also said they would boycott the bowl game against Washington State if the suspended players were not reinstated.

The suspensions came several weeks after a criminal investigation resulted in no arrests or charges.

Some of the players were accused by a female student of a sexual assault the night before the Gophers' first game on Sept. 2. How the other suspended players were involved is not immediately clear.

The woman's claims were documented through police reports and led to an investigation.

Claeys said Wednesday he could not comment about the suspensions.

"I'm not going to answer any more questions about that," he said Wednesday. "This is about the game, the University of Minnesota vs. Washington State. We have enough guys to play. Last time I checked, it only takes 11 on each side of the ball and a few for special teams. So we've got enough left to do that and we'll get them prepared to go and our kids will play hard."

The Gophers have an 8-4 record this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl game writeups

Dec 17

New Mexico Bowl: Tex-San Antonio @ New Mexico

New Mexico stays at home for this bowl, its 4th bowl in last 11 years, all here in Albuquerque. Lobos won six of last seven games to finish 8-4; they’re 5-1 at home, 1-2 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 49-21 to Boise State. New Mexico likes to run ball; they ran for 300+ yards in seven games this year, had an astounding 568 rushing yards in 56-35 win in its finale vs Wyoming. UTSA’s QB is Dalton Sturm, named after Patrick Swayze’s character in Road House; Roadrunners are in first-ever bowl- they went 5-3 in last eight games, covered four of last five- none of their last eight opponents ran for more than 180 yards. New Mexico is 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread; UTSA is 2-2. C-USA non-conference road underdogs are 9-11 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 9-14. Mountain West team covered this bowl the last four years, with underdogs 3-1 vs spread in those games.

Las Vegas Bowl: Houston-San Diego State

Houston started season with upset of Oklahoma, then upset Louisville later in season, but they also lost to Navy-SMU-Memphis and now they’re in a lesser bowl than they thought and their coach is off to Texas, taking lot of assistants with him. Cougars scored 35-38 points to post upset wins in bowls the last two years; senior QB Ward (also leading rusher) needs a big game here. Houston is 9-0 when they allow less than 38 points, 0-3 when they give up 38+; Cougars are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite. San Diego State lost its last two games, allowing 97 points; they’re 2-3 in bowls the last five years- they play on this field every other year- Aztecs beat UNLV here 52-14 LY. RB Pumphrey is one of nation’s best; Aztecs are 9-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-3 vs D-I teams when they do not. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread this season; Mountain West underdogs are 5-12.

Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State-Toledo

Toledo won three of its last four bowls, beating Temple LY; Rockets scored 32+ points in four of last five (3-2) bowl games. Toledo is 2-1-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread; they allowed 249+ rushing yards in all three of their losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 249 YR. Appalachian State won 31-29 over Ohio in this game LY, ASU’s first-ever bowl. Mountaineers won eight of last nine games this year after a 1-2 start, with loss to Troy; they’re 2-2 vs spread in games with a single-digit pointspread. ASU lost its season opener in OT at Tennessee. Junior QB Lamb is a 3-year starter for App State. Sun Belt teams are 8-7 in last 15 games with MAC opponents; Toledo opened this year with a 31-10 win over Arkansas State. App State won 45-38 at Akron in September. This is third Camellia Bowl; MAC/Sun Belt split first two, with totals of 61-60.

Cure Bowl, Orlando: Central Florida-Arkansas State

Central Florida was 0-12 LY after being 31-9 the three years before that, now they’re favored in a bowl game. Knights won three of their last four bowls, are playing in hometown here. UCF is 6-6 this year, 4-2 vs number in games with single-digit spread, 4-1 as a favorite- they lost last two games, allowing 83 points. Arkansas State is playing in its sixth straight bowl (under four different HC’s); they’re 0-2 in bowls under Anderson, losing 63-44/47-28. ASU is 7-5 this season after an 0-4 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Red Wolves are 2-2 as underdogs this season. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 6-1 in UCF’s last eight games. Last two years, AAC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-9 vs spread this year. Sun Belt underdogs are 13-13. This is only second Cure Bowl, so no history to lean on here.

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi/UL-Lafayette

UL-Lafayette is playing in this bowl for 5th time in last six years; they won previous four, and were underdog three times- those are ULL’s only bowl appearances. Lot of people will make the trip east from Lafayette. ULL is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 7-2 vs number in games with a single-digit spread. ULL QB Jennings started 14 games for LSU before transferring. Southern Miss lost three of last four games, covered one of last eight; they had to beat La Tech as a 14-point dog to get bowl eligible. USM lost as a 10-point favorite to Troy of Sun Belt. Golden Eagles are 1-6 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread- they’re 1-3 in last four bowl games, they split two trips to this bowl in 2008-09. Underdogs won this bowl SU three of last five years; Sun Belt teams won four of the five.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
December 16, 2016

**Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico**

-- This is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl that’ll be played at New Mexico’s home venue, University Stadium in Albuquerque. This is the Lobos’ second straight appearance in this postseason game after losing a 45-37 decision to Arizona last season as nine-point underdogs.

-- As of Thursday night, most betting shops had New Mexico (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The number has moved up from seven earlier in the week, while the total has dipped down from 62.5 points. The Roadrunners were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).

-- UNM was a single-digit favorite only once this year, beating Utah St. 24-21 as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk’ on Nov. 12. The Lobos closed out the regular season by smashing Wyoming 56-35 as three-point home underdogs. They led 35-7 at intermission and 42-7 midway through the third quarter. Lamar Jordan led the way by rushing for 176 yards and one TD on just 12 carries. The junior quarterback also completed 4-of-5 passes for 122 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Teriyon Gipson ran for a team-best 217 yards and two TDs on 13 attempts. RB Richard McQuarley also eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark with 121 yards and three TDs on 15 totes.

-- Bob Davie’s team leads the nation in rushing offense, averaging 360.9 yards per game. Gipson has rushed for 1,209 yards and 12 TDs while averaging an eye-opening 9.2 yards per carry. Tyrone Owens has run for 1,084 yards and seven scores with an 8.1 YPC average, while Jordan has 658 rushing yards and three TDs. McQuarley has rushed for 588 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.

-- New Mexico doesn’t throw it much. Jordan has connected on 37-of-71 passes (52.1%) for 604 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Austin Apodaca has completed 53-of-96 throws for 654 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Q’ Drennan has 11 receptions for 284 yards and three TDs.

-- Owens missed the regular-season finale with a foot injury and is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UTSA. Starting senior nose tackle William Udeh also missed the win over Wyoming and is ‘questionable.’ Udeh has recorded 12 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack.

-- UTSA (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) beat Charlotte by a 33-14 count in its regular-season finale to secure its first bowl-game appearance in program history. Dalton Sturm threw for 286 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Kerry Thomas had five receptions for 145 yards and one TD.

-- Sturm, the junior signal caller, has completed 58.2 percent of his throws for 2,052 yards with an 18/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sturm has also rushed for 263 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Stewart has a team-best 36 receptions for 682 yards and five TDs, while Thomas has 31 catches for 510 yards and eight TDs.

-- UTSA’s ground game is led by the 1-2 combination of Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes. Williams has run for 775 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.1 YPC. Rhodes has rushed for 756 yards and nine TD with a 5.3 YPC average.

-- Frank Wilson led UTSA to a second-place finish in Conference USA’s West Division with a 5-3 record in league play. The Roadrunners went 3-4 against teams that made the postseason. They compiled a 4-3 spread record with two outright victories as underdogs. Wilson’s squad faced one team from out of the Mountain West Conference in Week 2, losing 23-14 at Colorado St. as an 8.5-point ‘dog. UTSA squared off with a pair of Power Five foes, losing 32-28 to Arizona St. as a 21.5-point puppy and 23-10 at Texas A&M when catching 27 points. The Sun Devils actually trailed the Roadrunners 28-12 midway through the third quarter and 28-15 going into the fourth.

-- UTSA’s defense is led by redshirt freshman LB Josiah Tauaefa, who was the program’s first player to earn first-team All C-USA honors after recording a program-record 104 tackles, including 7.5 for loss. Tauaefa is ranked third among FBS freshmen in tackles.

-- The ‘over’ is 10-2 overall for New Mexico, 6-0 in its home games. The Lobos have seen their games average combined scores of 70.2 PPG.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Roadrunners (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.2 PPG.

-- Kickoff on Saturday is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Houston vs. San Diego State**

-- The Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Sin City features a matchup of the AAC vs. the Mountain West. As of Thursday night, most spots had Houston (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Aztecs were available on the money line for a +160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers).

-- Houston went 22-4 in 26 games under Tom Herman, who left UH to take the Texas job shortly after the Cougars dropped a 48-44 heartbreaker at Memphis in their regular-season finale at the Liberty Bowl. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has been tabbed as UH’s new head coach.

-- Houston probably has the best true freshman in all of America in DT Ed Oliver, who has lived up to his 5-star billing and then some. Oliver has produced 61 tackles, 19 TFL’s, five sacks, three forced fumbles, nine passes broken up and seven QB hurries. Senior LB Steven Taylor has registered a team-best 72 tackles, 11 TFL’s, 8.5 sacks, four QB hurries, two PBU, a pair of forced fumbles and one pick-six.

-- Houston opened the season with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as a 13-point underdog at NRG Stadium in H-Town. Senior QB Greg Ward Jr. was the catalyst, throwing for 321 yards and two TDs without an interception. Duke Catalon rushed for 88 yards on 22 totes, while Steven Dunbar hauled in seven receptions for 125 yards. Catalon also had four catches for 29 yards and one TD.

-- Houston has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, posting a 1-2 spread record.

-- One of those non-covers from the single-digit ‘chalk’ role was an outright defeat at Memphis. The Tigers won in come-from-behind fashion as six-point home underdogs thanks to Riley Ferguson’s 10-yard scoring strike to Anthony Miller with 19 seconds remaining. UH held a 624-555 advantage in total offense, but the Cougars were minus two in the turnover department. Ward completed 47-of-67 passes for 487 yards and four TDs with one interception. He also ran for a team-high 65 yards on 16 attempts. Catalon rushed 13 times for 60 yards and one TD while also catching seven balls for 41 yards. Linell Bonner had 17 receptions for 235 yards and one TD, while Chance Allen had eight catches for 73 yards and two TDs.

-- For the season, Ward has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,328 yards with a 22/9 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-high 518 yards and nine TDs, while Catalon has 510 rushing yards and four TDs. Catalon, a transfer from Texas, missed four games with injuries and averages only 3.9 YPC.

-- Bonner has a team-high 93 receptions for 1,076 yards and three TDs. Allen has 56 grabs for 815 yards and six TDs, while Dunbar has 51 catches for 669 yards and five scores.

-- Houston is ranked third in the nation in rush defense and 14th in total defense.

-- Houston has won back-to-back bowl games, beating Pitt 35-34 in 2014 as a 3.5-point ‘dog at the Armed Forces Bowl. Then last year at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, the Cougars thumped FSU by a 38-24 count as seven-point ‘dogs.

-- Houston took its other two defeats at Navy (46-40) and at SMU (38-16). The Cougars posted quality wins over Tulsa (38-31), UCF (31-24) and Louisville. They hosted U of L on a Thursday night as 17-point home underdogs. Bobby Petrino’s team was still in the mix for a CFP berth, but UH destroyed the Cardinals 36-10 and cashed money-line tickets for their backers to the tune of a monster return in the +550 range.

-- San Diego State (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) played a soft schedule, which is evidenced by its first underdog spot of the season here. Nevertheless, the Aztecs won the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by capturing a 27-24 win at Wyoming as seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Rashaad Penny rushed for 117 yards and two TDs on 16 carries, while Donnel Pumphrey ran for 110 yards and one TD on 25 attempts.

-- San Diego State lost two of its last three games, going 0-3 ATS. The Aztecs dropped a 34-33 decision at Wyoming two weeks before returning to Laramie to exact revenge. They closed the regular season by getting smashed 63-31 at Colorado St.

-- San Diego State is led by Pumphrey, the senior who has shredded all of Marshall Faulk’s school rushing records Pumphrey rushed for a career-best 2,018 yards and 16 TDs this year, averaging 6.1 YPC. He also had 26 catches for 205 yards. Penny has rushed for 995 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

-- San Diego State QB Christian Chapman has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,866 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. Chapman’s favorite target is Mikah Holder, who has 26 receptions for 569 yards and five TDs. Penny has 14 catches for 220 yards and three TDs.

-- San Diego State started the season 3-0, only to get thumped 42-24 at South Alabama as an 18.5-point road favorite in Week 5. The Aztecs responded with six straight wins while going 5-1 ATS, but then they lost their last two regular-season contests.

-- San Diego State is 12th in the nation in total defense, 11th in defending the run and 19th in scoring (21.0 PPG). This unit has lost three starters to season-ending injuries since late October, including LB Na’im McGee, LB Randy Ricks and CB Billy Vaughn.

-- Rocky Long has led San Diego State to six straight postseason appearances since taking over. The Aztecs are 2-3 both SU and ATS in those bowl. They drilled Cincinnati 42-7 as 2.5-point favorites at last year’s Hawaii Bowl.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Aztecs, cashing in five of their last six outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Cougars, going 4-1 in their last five games.

-- ABC will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
December 16, 2016


**Appalachian State vs. Toledo**

-- This is the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl that’ll be contested in Montgomery, Alabama, otherwise known as ‘The Gump.’ This game will feature the MAC against the Sun Belt with Toledo taking on Appalachian State. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Toledo (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 60.

-- Toledo started 3-0 before losing a 55-53 decision at BYU in a wild, back-and-forth affair in Provo. The Rockets covered the spread as three-point road underdogs. There were four ties and nine lead changes, including one tie and five lead changes in the final stanza. BYU pulled into a 45-45 tie on Rhett Almond’s 32-yard field goal with 5:21 remaining, and the Cougars went ahead 52-45 on Jamaal Williams’s 14-yard TD run with 3:00 left. Toledo answered on Kareem Hunt’s seven-yard TD run with 1:11 remaining and then first-year head coach Jason Candle brazenly chose to go for two. The conversion was good when Logan Woodside hit Michael Roberts for a three-yard scoring pass. However, trailing 53-52, BYU quickly moved into field-goal range and then actually had two plays inside the 10 that could’ve resulted in a TD and a spread cover. That didn’t happen, though, with Almond’s 19-yard FG proving to be the game winner (unless you were holding a BYU -3 ticket). Woodside completed 30-of-38 passes for 505 yards and five TDs with two interceptions. Hunt rushed for 146 yards and one TD on 27 carries.

-- Following the loss to BYU, Toledo enjoyed another three-game winning streak before dropping a 31-26 decision to Ohio as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ The Rockets bounced back with a third three-game winning streak before losing 55-35 at Western Michigan to close the regular season. Their best wins were at Arkansas State (31-10), at Eastern Michigan (35-20) and vs. Central Michigan (31-17).

-- Toledo is fourth in the nation in total offense, eighth in passing and 18th in scoring, averaging 38.8 points per game. Woodside, the junior signal caller, enjoyed a sensational campaign. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Corey Jones, an electrifying speedster who thrives on special teams, has 60 receptions for 745 yards and five TDs. Jones has 1,525 all-purpose yards. Cody Thompson has 59 catches for 1,170 yards and 10 TDs, while Jon’Vea Johnson hauled in 38 balls for 751 yards and 10 TDs. Roberts has 43 catches for 514 yards and 15 TDs.

-- Hunt, a three-time All-MAC selection, needs only 25 rushing yards against the Mountaineers to become the school’s all-time leader. He produced 1,355 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average during his senior campaign. Hunt also had 39 catches for 377 yards and one TD. His 200-yard effort on 20 attempts was a season-high in the regular-season finale at Western Michigan.

-- Toledo has been a single-digit favorite just once this year, easily cashing tickets in the 31-10 win over Arkansas State as a 4.5-point road favorite.

-- Appalachian State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) nearly shocked the country on the Thursday night of Week 1 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Scott Satterfield’s squad was a 21.5-point road underdog at Tennessee, but it jumped out to a 13-3 intermission lead. However, a missed extra point by freshman Michael Rugino, in addition to a 42-yard fourth-quarter field goal that sailed wide right, would come back to haunt the Mountaineers. On a third-and-goal play on the first possession of overtime, UT QB Josh Dobbs dove for the end zone, only to get stuck by an ASU defender and cough up the ball. The fumble was recovered by Jalen Hurd in the end zone for a TD. ASU’s incomplete pass on fourth and five ended the game, but the Mountaineers easily covered the number as 21.5-point road underdogs.

-- After thumping Old Dominion 31-7 as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ App. State welcomed Miami to Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone for the biggest home game in the program’s history. Things didn’t go well, however. A long run by Marcus Cox was called back and the star RB was injured in the first quarter. The Hurricanes rolled to a 45-10 win as 4.5-point road favorites.

-- ASU won six in a row after the loss to UM, only to see its winning streak halted in a 28-24 loss at Troy as a two-point road underdog. The Mountaineers bounced back to win their last two games, beating ULM 42-17 at home before blasting New Mexico State 37-7 as 20-point road ‘chalk.’ In the win over the Aggies, Cox rushed for 140 yards on 16 carries while Jalin Moore ran 17 times for 111 yards and one TD. Junior QB Taylor Lamb completed 20-of-28 passes for 220 yards and one TD without an interception. Lamb also rushed for 71 yards and a pair of scores on 10 attempts.

-- After getting injured vs. Miami, Cox missed four consecutive games before returning to run for 115 yards and one TD in a 34-10 win at Ga. Southern. For the season, Cox ran for 854 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Cox is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,942 career yards. He also had 12 catches for 102 yards and one TDs this year. Moore rushed for a team-high 1,367 yards and 10 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.

-- Lamb completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,162 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 379 yards and eight scores. Those numbers were down from his 2015 stats as a sophomore when Lamb threw for 2,387 yards with a 31/9 TD-INT ratio. He ran for 436 yards and five TDs.

-- Lamb’s favorite target is Shaedon Meadors, who has 43 receptions for 698 yards and two TDs.

-- ASU is 15th in the nation in total defense, 23rd in defending the run and seventh in scoring (17.0 PPG).

-- ASU went to this same bowl game last year, defeating Ohio 31-29 but failing to cover as a 7.5-point favorite.

-- When Matt Campbell left Toledo to take the Iowa State job last year, Candle led the Rockets to a 32-17 win over Temple at the Boca Raton Bowl as 2.5-point underdogs.

-- These schools have one common opponent. App. State won 45-38 at Akron, while Toledo coasted to a 48-17 road win against the Zips.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Appalachian State, which saw its games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Rockets, who saw their games average combined scores of 64.1 PPG. The ‘under’ cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in their last six outings.

-- Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Central Florida vs. Arkansas State**

-- The Autonation Cure Bowl will take place in Orlando at Camping World Stadium, where Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt against Central Florida from out of the AAC. This contest will kick at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Sports Network.

-- As of Friday, most spots had UCF (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 50. The Red Wolves were +205 on the money line (risk $100 to win $205).

-- Scott Frost, the former offensive coordinator at Oregon, took over for George O’Leary and immediately posted a six-game improvement. The Knights finished 2015 with a 0-12 record, but they’re back in the postseason under Frost’s direction.

-- UCF went 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite during the regular season.

-- UCF lost back-to-back contests to close the regular season, including a 35-20 home loss to Tulsa and a 48-31 loss at South Fla. The Knights gave up 351 rushing yards to the Bulls and they were minus two in turnover margin.

-- UFC’s defense is led by junior LB Shaquem Griffin, who has 85 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, six passes broken up, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one interception. Senior CB Shaquill Griffin is the leader in the secondary, recording 48 tackles, four interceptions, one pick-six, 2.5 TFL’s, one blocked kick and 12 PBU.

-- UFC true freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over the job from senior Justin Holman in Week 3. Milton completed 57.9% percent of his passes for 1,808 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 153 yards and three TDs. Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 54 receptions for 808 yards and six TDs. UFC uses a trio of RBs led by Jawon Hamilton, who has rushed for a team-high 481 yards and four TDs.

-- Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) won seven if its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS after getting out to an abysmal 0-4 start. Blake Anderson’s team lost its first three games by double-digit margins vs. Toledo (31-10), at Auburn (51-14) and at Utah State (34-20). Then the Red Wolves hit rock bottom by losing at home to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, by a 28-23 count as 16.5-point ‘chalk.’

-- From there, however, Arkansas State turned it around with a six-game winning streak that included five wins by double-digit margins. The most impressive of those victories came at Troy on national television. The Trojans were 10-point home favorites, unbeaten in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming at Clemson by just a 30-24 score. Arkansas State limited Troy’s high-octane offense to merely 262 yards and forced five turnovers. Justice Hansen threw for 149 yards and one TD without an interception, while Warren Wand rushed for 90 yards on 17 attempts. Justin Clifton had a pair of interceptions for the defense.

-- Arkansas State has held foes to only 13.7 PPG in its last seven contests. Senior DE Chris Odom leads this unit with a team-best 12.5 sacks, while junior DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones collected 11 sacks. Odom also tallied 52 tackles, 17.5 TFL’s, six QB hurries, four forced fumbles, two PBU and one blocked kick. Rolland-Jones finished the regular season with 53 tackles, 19 TFL’s and six QB hurries.

-- Wand has rushed for a team-high 867 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Hansen has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 2,514 yards with a 16/8 TD-INT ratio. Blake Mack and Kendall Sanders have both caught 33 balls apiece. Mack has 585 receiving yards and three TD grabs, while Sanders has 426 receiving yards and four TD receptions.

-- Arkansas State has been an underdog four times this year, compiling a 2-2 record both SU and ATS with outright scalps at Troy and at Ga. Southern.

-- This is Arkansas State’s third straight postseason appearance under Anderson, but the Red Wolves are looking for their first bowl win on his watch. They lost 47-28 to La. Tech as 1.5-point underdogs at last season’s New Orleans Bowl.

-- The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in Arkansas State games, cashing at a 9-2-1 overall clip. The Red Wolves have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for UCF, going 6-1 in its last seven games. The Knights have seen their games average combined scores of 54.2 PPG.

**Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette**

-- This is the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl that’ll take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Crescent City. Mark Hudspeth’s program is no stranger to this game. In fact, before last year’s dismal 4-8 campaign, the Ragin’ Cajuns not only went to the New Orleans Bowl four straight years, but they won it four consecutive times both SU and ATS. They beat San Diego State 32-30 as four-point ‘dogs in ’11 before besting East Carolina 43-34 as 6.5-point ‘chalk’ in ’12. Also, UL-L edged Tulane 24-21 as a 1.5-point puppy and knocked off Nevada 16-3 as a 1.5-point ‘dog.

-- Southern Miss is no stranger to the New Orleans Bowl, either. The Golden Eagles are also making their fifth appearance. They are 3-1 with wins in ’04, ’05 and ’08 with a loss in ’09.

-- As of Friday, most books had So. Miss (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The line opened at two at The Westgate SuperBook, but it was up to 3.5 within 24 hours. Then on Monday, the number went to four and was to 4.5 by Tuesday and five on Wednesday. The number was up to six as of Thursday. The total opened at 58 points and hasn’t moved much, resting at 58.5 at most place on Friday. The Ragin’ Cajuns can be had on the money line for a nice +200 return.

-- Jay Hopson’s first team at So. Miss got out to a nice start, winning its opener 44-35 at Kentucky after trailing 35-10 late in the second quarter. The Golden Eagles improved to 4-1, with their lone defeat coming at home to Troy by a 37-31 score, by winning at UTEP (34-7) and vs. Rice (44-28) in their first two C-USA games. However, four lopsided defeats followed in the next five outings.

-- The slide began with a 55-32 loss at Texas-San Antonio as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ After a 45-10 loss at LSU, So. Miss briefly stopped the bleeding with a 24-14 non-covering home win over Marshall. Next, the Golden Eagles lost 38-27 to Charlotte as 19.5-point home favorites. Following a 51-35 loss at Old Dominion and a 29-23 setback at North Texas, they had to win the regular-season finale at home vs. La. Tech to get bowl eligible.

-- With a seven-game ATS losing streak to go with five outright defeats in the last six outings, So. Miss produced its best performance in months by beating La. Tech 39-24 as a 14.5-point home underdog. Nick Mullens couldn’t have played better on his Senior Night in Hattiesburg, completing 29-of-33 passes for 342 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ito Smith rushed for 127 yards on 24 attempts and also had four catches for 63 yards. D.J. Thompson had a team-high 12 receptions for 135 yards and two TDs. Junior safety Picasso Nelson had a pair of interceptions.

-- As a junior in 2015, Mullens threw for 4,476 yards with a 38/12 TD-INT ratio. He couldn’t duplicate those numbers this year, however. Mullens missed losses at ODU and at North Texas due to injuries. He finished the regular season by connecting on 63.4 percent of his throws for 2,926 yards with a 22/10 TD-INT ratio. Mullens rushed for four TDs.

-- Smith led the Golden Eagles with 1,321 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. He also had 42 catches for 453 yards and one TD. Allen Staggers is Mullens’s top target. Staggers has 51 receptions for 927 yards and six TDs, while Thompson has 43 catches for 470 yards and six TDs.

-- So. Miss has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, UL-Lafayette has posted a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in six games as an underdog.

-- UL-Lafayette (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) has covered the spread in four consecutive games, including a 30-3 win at ULM as a 5.5-point road favorite in the regular-season finale. The defense forced five turnovers and scored a pair of TDs on scoop and scores. Trevera Miller’s 73-yard return of a fumble recovery gave UL-L a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. Then with 5:10 left until halftime, Otha Peters put his team ahead 21-3 with a 29-yard return of a fumble recovery. Elijah McGuire rushed for 110 yards and one TD on 28 totes.

-- Hudspeth’s team produced its best wins at home over South Alabama (28-23) and Arkansas State (24-19). The Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Red Hawks as six-point home underdogs thanks to three defensive stops on fourth-down conversion attempts and a 17-yard pick-six by junior DT Taboris Lee. UL-L QB Anthony Jennings, a transfer from LSU, threw for 242 yards and two TDs without an interception.

-- McGuire is the school’s second all-time leading rusher with 3,896 career yards. He was a Freshman All-American in 2013 and the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in 2014. He ran for 1,028 yards this season to give him three 1,000-yard rushing years. McGuire averaged 4.8 YPC and had seven rushing TDs. McGuire also had 28 catches for 231 yards and two TDs.

-- Jennings has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,083 yards with a mediocre 11/12 TD-INT ratio. Jennings has rushed for 322 yards and seven TDs. His best WR is Al Riles, who has 55 catches for 665 yards and two TDs. Keenan Barnes has 30 catches for 406 yards and a team-best six TD grabs.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for UL-L, going 5-2 in its last seven regular-season contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have watched their games average combined scores of 48.9 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for So. Miss, but it saw the ‘under’ connect its last two regular-season contests. The Golden Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 PPG.

-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Miami Beach Bowl
December 18, 2016

**Tulsa vs. Central Michigan**

-- The lone bowl game Monday takes place at Marlins Park in Miami, Fla., as Mid-American Conference (MAC) representative Central Michigan (6-6 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) enters as a heavy underdog against Tulsa (9-3 straight up, 8-4 ATS) of the American Athletic Conference (AAC). The Golden Hurricane of Tulsa are listed as a 12 1/2-point favorite as of Sunday morning with a total just shy of 70.

-- Central Michigan fired out to a 3-0 record this season, including their memorable and controversial last-second victory at Oklahoma State Sept. 10. The Chippewas also started 3-0 ATS, but ended up covering just two of their final nine outings. In addition, the Chips posted just one victory in their final five regular season games, although it was an impressive 27-20 win over Ohio, a MAC Championship Game participant and current bowl team. The Chippewas managed to win two times in six games away from home, posting a 2-4 ATS mark on the road. Against bowl teams this season the Chippewas managed a 2-4 SU/ATS mark. CMU appeared to shoot their wad in a triple-overtime victory over Northern Illinois back on Oct. 15, as they were 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS at that point, but they fizzled hard down the stretch. The Chips were able to score 30 or more points in each of their first four games, but hit the mark just once in the final eight games, and that was the triple-overtime outing against NIU. Meanwhile CMU's defense went south down the stretch, giving up 28.2 points per game (PPG) in their final five outings.

-- CMU might not even be in a position for a bowl appearance if not for their controversial win in Stillwater. The Cowboys of Oklahoma State snapped the ball, threw the ball deep and out of bounds in an attempt to kill the clock. Oklahoma State was whistled for intentional grounding, which was the proper call. However, MAC officials incorrectly awarded the Chips an untimed down, which they converted into a miraculous 51-yard Hail Mary for score. After the game, officials admitted the game should have been over and the storybook finish should never have taken place. As it stands, both Oklahoma State and Central Michigan ended up bowling.

-- Central Michigan had a rather prolific pass attempt this season, posting 275.8 yards per game through the air to rank 26th in the nation. However, they managed just 119.2 yards per game on the ground to check in 116th in the country while posting 27.7 PPG and 395.1 total yards per game which were both middle of the pack. QB Cooper Rush was the story on offense, completing 61.0 percent of his passes for 3,292 yards with 23 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He wasn't a dual-threat quarterback, though, posting minus-13 yards with one score on 62 rush attempts.

-- When CMU wants to run the ball, it is RBs Devon Spalding (shoulder) and Jahray Hayes handling the totes. Spalding is a question mark for Monday's game due to a shoulder injury. If he cannot play it would be a huge hole in the offense, as he posted three of his six regular season touchdowns in the season finale at Eastern Michigan. Hayes also visited the end zone three times in the final three games, but he operated more like the hammer in short-yardage situations. If he is forced to shoulder more of the load, pun totally intended, the Chips would definitely not be firing on all cylinders in the run game.

-- The Chippewas were double-digit underdogs twice this season. Their one cover, even if not for the controversial ending, was at Oklahoma State Sept. 10. They failed to cover a 10-point number in a conference loss at Toledo Oct. 22 to kick off their 1-4 ATS slide to end the season.

-- Tulsa (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) had a lot more consistency in their season, and they never lost back-to-back games at any point during the season. While Tulsa was completely outplayed Sept. 10 at Ohio State in a 48-3 loss, on the same day as CMU's big win at Oklahoma State, they were able to survive and advance in the following three weeks, including overtime wins at Fresno State and at home against Southern Methodist.

-- Tulsa's season wasn't without controversy, either, although they were on the short end of the stick in their most memorable game Oct. 15. Tulsa was tied with Houston 31-31 with 3:31 to go, but the Cougars pulled ahead on a 24-yard fumble recovery for touchdown to take a 38-31 lead with 81 seconds remaining in regulation. The Golden Hurricane drove down to the 2-yard line in the closing seconds of regulation. QB Dane Evans hit Jesse Brubaker on a short pass and he reached for the goal line and appeared to be in, sending the game potentially to overtime. However, after further review officials determined Brubaker was short and the ball did not cross the plane before time ran out, handing Tulsa a gut-wrenching loss at TDECU Stadium in Houston.

-- The difficult loss seemed to galvanize the Golden Hurricane, as they won five of their final six regular season games while going 6-1 ATS over their final seven outings. Tulsa ranked No. 5 in the country in total yards with 523.2 yards per game, buoyed by a strong rushing attack ranking eighth in the country with 262.4 yards per game. The Golden Hurricane averaged 41.4 PPG to rank 11th in the country, too.

-- Evans threw for 3,044 yard with 27 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, jelling nicely with WRs Keevan Lucas and Josh Atkinson for big numbers. Lucas led the team with 74 receptions, 1,108 yards and 15.0 yards per reception while also finding the end zone a team-high 12 times. Atkinson was right on his tail with 66 grabs for 927 yards and seven scores. WR Justin Hobbs emerged as an outstanding tertiary receiving option, hauling in 47 receptions for 657 yards and four scores while equaling Atkinson with 14.0 yards per catch.

-- In the run game, James Flanders gobbled up huge chunks of real estate, running for 6.3 yards per carry on 241 totes, leading the team wiht 1,529 yards and 17 forays into the end zone. D'Angelo Brewer was not only a complement, but an equal in a two-headed rushing attack. He rolled for 1,330 yards with seven scores on 247 carries, averaging 5.4 yards per game. Evans, like CMU's Rush, is a drop-back passer and not a dual-threat, but he was able to find the end zone four times with his feet.

-- Tulsa is looking for a better outcome than their showing last season in the Independence Bowl. They were outscored 55-52 in Frank Beamer's swan song game against Virginia Tech. Their last victory in the postseason came in 2012 when they topped Iowa State 31-17 to win the AutoZone Liberty Bowl, posting their 10th victory of the season that year. The Golden Hurricane have won four of their past six bowl games, covering five of the outings.

-- For Central Michigan, they have managed just three all-time bowl victories, with their last win coming in the Little Caesars Bowl in 2012 against Western Kentucky. The Chips have allowed 21 or more points in all but one of their nine bowl games since their postseason debut in 1990. They have also scored at least 21 points in eight of their nine bowl games, posting a low of 14 points last season in the Quick Lane Bowl in a loss against Minnesota.

-- These teams last met Oct. 17, 1987, with Central Michigan topping Tulsa 41-18.

-- Central Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their past 10 non-conference games, but they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall.

-- Tulsa covered six of their final seven games overall, they're 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight against non-conference foes.

-- The 'under' is 8-0 in the past eight for Central Michigan against teams with a winning overall record.

-- The 'under' is 6-1 in Tulsa's past seven neutral site games, and 6-2 in their past eight bowl appearances. The under is also 4-0 in the past four for the Golden Hurricane against MAC foes.

-- Kickoff is slated for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Dec 19
Miami Beach Bowl: Central Michigan-Tulsa
Central Michigan lost 49-48/21-14 in bowls last two years; Chippewas are 3-6 overall in bowls, with four of last five decided by 3 or less points. CMU is 4-2 in games decided by 7 or less points. Tulsa is over .500 for first time in four years; they’re 3-2 in last five bowls, losing 55-52 to Va Tech LY. Chippewas lost four of last five games but did win at Oklahoma State; CMU is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Tulsa is 4-4 as a favorite this year, 2-4 vs number in games with double digit spread- they allowed 30+ points in six of last nine games. Favorite won/covered this bowl in first two years, with totals of 80-103. Weather isn’t a factor, being domed stadium. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CMU at TLSA 02:30 PM

TLSA -13.0 *****

U 67.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Boca Raton Bowl Capsule
December 19, 2016

Western Kentucky (10-3, 8-1 Conference USA) vs. Memphis (8-4, 5-3 American Athletic), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Western Kentucky by 6 +

Series Record: First meeting

WHAT'S AT STAKE

Last year it was Memphis playing in a bowl game with an interim head coach (Darrell Dickey) after losing Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech, and with current head coach Mike Norvell waiting in the wings. This time around it's Western Kentucky trying to navigate those waters following the resignation earlier this month of coach Jeff Brohm and the hiring of Mike Sanford to replace him. Defensive coordinator Nick Holt, who lobbied hard for the job, is hoping his Hilltoppers avoid the result the Tigers wound up with last December (a 31-10 loss to Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl) and ride the strong arm of senior quarterback Mike White to victory.

KEY MATCHUP

Western Kentucky WR Taywan Taylor vs. Memphis CBs Chauncey Lanier and Arthur Maulet. Taylor is White's favorite target and racked up 1,586 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns during the season. So Maulet (two interceptions) and Lanier (one interception) will have their hands full trying to contain him. Lanier hails from nearby Davie and would like nothing better than to perform well in front of his friends and family.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Memphis: WR Anthony Miller heated up in the second half of the season to the tune of 845 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, so look for junior QB Riley Ferguson to target him early and often.

Western Kentucky: QB White played his high school football about 30 minutes south of Boca Raton at Nova Southeastern in Davie. He began his college career at the University of South Florida before transferring to Western Kentucky last year. After sitting out the 2015 season, White took charge of the Hilltoppers' offense and completed 260 of 386 passes for 4,027 yards, 34 touchdowns and six interceptions.

FACTS & FIGURES

The Tigers are bowling again for the third straight year and ninth time overall in Norvell's first season. Norvell is the third coach in school history with a winning record in his first year. . For Western Kentucky, this trip to South Florida is a reward for its second consecutive 10-win season and second consecutive league title. Last year the Hilltoppers knocked off USF 45-35 in the Miami Beach Bowl. . FAU Stadium is once again the site for the Boca Raton Bowl, which made its debut in 2014 when Marshall took care of Northern Illinois, 52-23.

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Bowl Action
December 19, 2016

Boca Raton Bowl (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Memphis Tigers vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Western Kentucky (-6.5); Total set at 81

The 2016 Bowl Season got off to a great start on Saturday as my two free picks were able to sweep the board. Those of you that weren't shy about putting a ML bet on San Diego State even added to that tally and now that the first official Bowl Week has arrived, I'm looking to keep that momentum rolling. Tuesday's game is the Boca Raton Bowl between Memphis and Western Kentucky where we should see plenty of points based on the total alone.

Western Kentucky was an offensive juggernaut in Conference USA scoring 50 or more points in six of their final nine games and dominating opponents along the way. The Hilltoppers were able to avenge their lone conference loss to Louisiana Tech during the year by beating them in the Conference USA Title game (58-44) and all of that success helped HC Jeff Brohm move onto bigger things as he accepted the same position at Purdue earlier this month.

Purdue is hoping that Brohm's brilliant offensive mind can help turn their program around in the Big 10, but for right now you've got to wonder how his absence on the Western Kentucky sideline will affect that team. Coaches moving on from smaller programs after a successful year is a harsh reality in CFB at this time of year and it's the Hilltoppers that have to deal with it this time around.

Memphis is known for their offensive abilities as well although they weren't able to reach the same heights that Western Kentucky did this year. But the Tigers did play tougher competition with ranked foes like Temple, Navy, and Houston on their resume, and Memphis' 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) record in those games speaks a bit to how well they should perform in this Bowl game. Obviously the #1 goal for the Tigers here is figuring out ways to slow down the Hilltoppers attack, but having a few weeks to prepare a plan of attack in that regard doesn't hurt.

Early action on the Boca Raton Bowl has seen Western Kentucky and their offense get plenty of support as this spread has been bet up to it's current number after opening up at -5.5. Offensive football teams tend to get plenty of support during Bowl season, but those backing Western Kentucky here will be quick to point out that their defense was tremendous down the stretch as well, holding three of their last five opponents to 7 points or less.

Yet, as I mentioned before, the competition level in Conference USA isn't quite what it is elsewhere (Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in last four non-conference games) – even in the AAC where Memphis resides – and this game could very well end up being one of those shootout-type games where the team with the ball last wins.

But the overriding factor for me making a play here is the Brohm absence. With coaches moving on being a regular occurrence this time of year, it's those teams that have been “abandoned” by their HC that you typically want to play against. Collegiate athletes get sold and play at a program in large part to the sales pitches those same coaches make during recruiting trips and these young, impressionable adults can't help but feel disappointed when those same coaches go back on their original message and become about themselves when the right opportunity comes up.

We saw this play out in spades during the Las Vegas Bowl when Houston played their sloppiest, worst game of the year as the motivation simply wasn't present. That worked out well for us being on the other side of that contest, and that's the angle I'm taking here by playing on Memphis and grabbing the points.

The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Conference USA opponents and have a 18-7-1 ATS run going against non-conference foes from any area. Memphis has all the talent to keep up with Western Kentucky on the scoreboard should that be the case, and without Brohm at the helm directing the Hilltoppers offense, it's tough to see them operating as efficiently or as successfully here.

Best Bet: Take Memphis +6.5

[StarDust Bum]

Dec 20

Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis-Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky won its last seven games after a 3-3 start, with five of last six wins by 35+ points, but WKU lost its coach to Purdue; they’re 5-4 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games wth single digit spread. Memphis is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Tigers allowed 42+ points in all four losses; they’re 7-0 when allowing less than 42 points. Memphis lost three of last four bowls, allowing 41 ots/game; they beat BYU in OT in nearly Miami two years ago. Hilltoppers won 49-48/45-35 in bowl games last two years; this is their 4th bowl in last five years. C-USA non-conference favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 7-10. AAC teams are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs Conference USA opponents. Over is 7-3 in last ten Memphis games, 6-2 in last eight WKU games.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 Bowl Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/19/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

12/17/2016 6-4-0 60.00% +800

[StarDust Bum]

Dec 21

Poinsettia Bowl: BYU-Wyoming

No love lost between these old conference rivals, who last met in 2010; BYU won last seven meetings, last four by average score of 39-8, but that was long time ago. BYU is 8-4 this year, with four losses by total of 8 points. Cougars are 4-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, 6-2-1 in games with a single digit pointspread. Because they’re an independent, most of their tougher games were earlier this season. Wyoming was 15-33 the previous four years; they’re 8-5 this season, losing last two games while allowing 83 points, 810 rushing yards. This is Wyoming’s first bowl in five years, and Bohl’s first bowl; he won multiple national titles at I-AA level. BYU lost its last three bowls, allowing 40.3 pts/game; favorites covered their last five bowl games. Two of Cowboys’ last three games were against San Diego State, but both were in Laramie. BYU won this bowl in 2012; Mountain West teams are 3-2 in last five Poinsettia Bowls.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 Bowl Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/20/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100

12/19/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000

12/17/2016 6-4-0 60.00% +800